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Journal articles on the topic 'J-Curve (Economics)'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 10 February 2022

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1

CARDI, OLIVIER. "ANOTHER VIEW OF THE J-CURVE." Macroeconomic Dynamics 11, no. 2 (2007): 153–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s136510050706004x.

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Most of empirical studies find evidence of the J-Curve, but recent results cast doubt over its standard explanation. By addressing the countercyclicality of the current account and its dynamic link with the terms of trade, this paper revisits the J-Curve phenomenon using a two-good dynamic optimizing small open economy model allowing for a habit-forming behavior and capital adjustment costs. While the nonmonotonic adjustment of the current account relies on the degree of habit persistence in consumption and the magnitude of capital installation costs after an unanticipated terms of trade worsening, we show that the sizes of the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution under time nonseparable preferences and the import content of real consumption and investment matter as well after a temporary perturbation. As a consequence of an intertemporal speculation effect and an inertia effect, the small country reaches the long-term equilibrium with higher foreign assets after a short-lived terms of trade worsening.

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2

Durmaz, Nazif. "Industry level J-curve in Turkey." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 4 (2015): 689–706. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-08-2013-0122.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the J-Curve effect in Turkey at the industry level. Design/methodology/approach – In order to find the long-run and short-run effects, 58 industries (by Standard International Trade Classification Rev.3) have been identified by using monthly data that covers the periods from January 1990 to December 2012. Present study employs bounds testing procedure, developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). Findings – Although results indicate a positive satisfactory effect of real depreciation of lira in 13 industries, the J-Curve effect is detected in only 13 industries. Originality/value – The present study is one of the first studies to analyze the J-Curve effect at the industry level on Turkey. In addition to being one of the first studies, it will be an invaluable addition to the J-Curve literature.

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3

BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, MOHSEN, and MOHAMMAD POURHEYDARIAN. "THE AUSTRALIAN J-CURVE: A REEXAMINATION." International Economic Journal 5, no. 3 (1991): 49–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168739100080020.

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4

Yazici, Mehmet, and Mushtaq Ahmad Klasra. "Import-content of exports and J-curve effect." Applied Economics 42, no. 6 (2010): 769–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701720846.

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5

Noland, Marcus. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve." Review of Economics and Statistics 71, no. 1 (1989): 175. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1928067.

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6

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Artatrana Ratha. "The J-curve dynamics of U.S. bilateral trade." Journal of Economics and Finance 28, no. 1 (2004): 32–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02761452.

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7

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Ali M. Kutan. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe." Applied Economics 41, no. 20 (2009): 2523–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701235696.

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8

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Hanafiah Harvey. "The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners." Applied Economics 42, no. 9 (2010): 1067–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840701721158.

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9

Hsing, Han-Min, and Andreas Savvides. "Does a J-curve exist for Korea and Taiwan?" Open Economies Review 7, no. 2 (1996): 127–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01891900.

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10

Petrovic, Pavle, and Mirjana Gligoric. "Exchange rate and trade balance: J-curve effect." Panoeconomicus 57, no. 1 (2010): 23–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan1001023p.

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This paper shows that exchange rate depreciation in Serbia improves trade balance in the long run, while giving rise to a J-curve effect in the short run. These results add to the already existent empirical evidence for a diverse set of other economies. Both Johansen's and autoregressive distributed lag approach are respectively used giving similar long-run estimates showing that real depreciation improves trade balance. Corresponding errorcorrection models as well as impulse response functions indicate that, following currency depreciation, trade balance first deteriorates before it later improves, i.e. exhibiting the J-curve pattern. These results are relevant for policy making both in Serbia and in a number of other emerging Europe countries as they face major current account adjustments after BoP crises of 2009.

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11

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Jia Xu. "The J-Curve and Japan–China commodity trade." Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies 11, no. 1 (2013): 13–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2012.755300.

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12

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Huseyin Karamelikli. "Turkish-German Commodity Trade and Asymmetric J-Curve." Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 66, Issue 2 66, no. 2 (2020): 93–129. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.66.2.93.

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We consider the short-run and the long-run effects of the real Turkish Lira-Euro rate on the trade balance of each of the 64 industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. We find relatively more significant effects by estimating a nonlinear ARDL model for each industry. Indeed, the approach of separating currency depreciation from appreciation identified the five largest Turkish industries that engage in more than 50 % of the trade between these two countries and that benefitted from Turkish Lira depreciation against the Euro.

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13

Bahmani‐Oskooee, Mohsen, Gour G. Goswami, and Bidyut Kumar Talukdar. "The bilateral J‐curve: Canada versus her 20 trading partners." International Review of Applied Economics 22, no. 1 (2008): 93–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02692170701745952.

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14

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Hadise Fariditavana. "Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 3 (2015): 519–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2015-0042.

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Purpose – Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach. Findings – When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve. Research limitations/implications – The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research. Originality/value – This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.

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15

KAPUR, BASANT K. "THE J-CURVE AND SHORT-RUN EXCHANGE-RATE DYNAMICS." International Economic Journal 3, no. 3 (1989): 85–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168738900080023.

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16

Georgopoulos, George J. "The J-curve Revisited: An Empirical Analysis for Canada." Atlantic Economic Journal 36, no. 3 (2008): 315–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11293-008-9124-z.

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17

Selden, Thomas M., and Daqing Song. "Neoclassical Growth, the J Curve for Abatement, and the Inverted U Curve for Pollution." Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 29, no. 2 (1995): 162–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jeem.1995.1038.

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18

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, Mir Obaidur Rahman, and Mohammad Abdul Kashem. "Bangladesh’s trade partners and the J-curve: an asymmetry analysis." Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies 12, no. 2 (2018): 174–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17520843.2018.1534873.

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19

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs." Review of Economics and Statistics 67, no. 3 (1985): 500. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1925980.

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20

AKBOSTANCI, ELIF. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve." Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 40, no. 5 (2004): 57–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1540496x.2004.11052584.

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21

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Ruixin Zhang. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between UK and China." Applied Economics 45, no. 31 (2013): 4369–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2013.783680.

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22

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Muhammad Ali Nasir. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K." Applied Economics 52, no. 25 (2019): 2679–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2019.1693700.

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23

Hsing, Yu. "Test of the J-curve for six selected new EU countries." International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies 2, no. 1 (2009): 76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijepee.2009.022942.

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24

Halicioglu, Ferda. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model." Applied Economics 40, no. 18 (2008): 2423–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840600949496.

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25

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Yongqing Wang. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China." Applied Economics 40, no. 21 (2008): 2735–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840600970328.

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26

Gazioglu, Saziye, and W. David McCausland. "Monetary Policy: The Implications of Capacity Constraints and J-Curve Effects." Metroeconomica 50, no. 2 (1999): 219–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-999x.00069.

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27

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Massomeh Hajilee. "The J-Curve at industry level: Evidence from Sweden–US trade." Economic Systems 33, no. 1 (2009): 83–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2008.09.001.

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28

Oskooee, Mohsen Bahmani, and Amr Sadek Hosny. "Egypt-US commodity trade and the J-curve." International Journal of Economics and Business Research 5, no. 2 (2013): 115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijebr.2013.051893.

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29

Brynjolfsson, Erik, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13, no. 1 (2021): 333–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180386.

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General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find that adjusting for intangibles related to computer hardware and software yields a TFP level that is 15.9 percent higher than official measures by the end of 2017. (JEL E22, E23, G31, L63, L86)

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30

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Augustine Chuck Arize. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: new evidence from Africa." Journal of Economic Studies 47, no. 5 (2020): 969–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-09-2018-0333.

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PurposeThe purpose is to assess the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance using data from African nations.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology is based on the most recent development in asymmetry cointegration and error-correction modeling.FindingsWhile the authors find short-run asymmetric effects in many of the countries in their sample, asymmetry cointegration yields support for the new definition of the J-curve in Algeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Morocco, Tanzania and Zambia.Originality/valueThis is the first study that applies nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) using data from each of the 13 countries in Africa.

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31

BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, MOHSEN, GOUR G. GOSWAMI, and BIDYUT KUMAR TALUKDAR. "THE BILATERAL J-CURVE: AUSTRALIA VERSUS HER 23 TRADING PARTNERS." Australian Economic Papers 44, no. 2 (2005): 110–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2005.00252.x.

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32

GUPTA-KAPOOR, ANJU, and UMA RAMAKRISHNAN. "IS THERE A J-CURVE? A NEW ESTIMATION FOR JAPAN." International Economic Journal 13, no. 4 (1999): 71–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10168739900080029.

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33

Moffett, Michael H. "The J-curve revisited: an empirical examination for the United States." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 3 (1989): 425–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(89)90007-7.

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34

Michail, Nektarios A. "Estimating a Bilateral J-curve between the UK and the Euro Area." Manchester School 86, no. 6 (2017): 757–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/manc.12209.

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35

Narayan, Paresh Kumar. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality." Applied Economics Letters 11, no. 6 (2004): 351–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1350485042000228187.

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36

Paldam, Martin. "Comment on D. G. Blanchflower and A. J. Oswald, "The Wage Curve"." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 92, no. 2 (1990): 237. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440027.

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37

Rødseth, Asbjørn, and Asbjorn Rodseth. "Comment on D. G. Blanchflower and A. J. Oswald, "The Wage Curve"." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 92, no. 2 (1990): 243. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440028.

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38

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs: Errata." Review of Economics and Statistics 71, no. 3 (1989): 553. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1926918.

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39

Ari, Ali, Raif Cergibozan, and Emre Cevik. "J-curve in Turkish bilateral trade: A nonlinear approach." International Trade Journal 33, no. 1 (2018): 31–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2018.1521316.

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40

WOOD, GAVIN A. "VALUATION EFFECTS, CURRENCY CONTRACT IMPACTS AND THE J-CURVE: EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES." Australian Economic Papers 30, no. 56 (1991): 148–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1991.tb00536.x.

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41

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Marzieh Bolhasani. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S." Journal of Economics and Finance 32, no. 3 (2008): 207–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12197-007-9024-0.

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42

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, Charikleia Economidou, and Gour G. Goswami. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-à-vis her major trading partners." Applied Economics 38, no. 8 (2006): 879–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500399388.

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43

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Ridha Nouira. "U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis." Economic Systems 45, no. 2 (2021): 100779. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2020.100779.

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44

Carter, Colin A., and Daniel H. Pick. "The J‐Curve Effect and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71, no. 3 (1989): 712–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1242027.

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45

Leeson, Robert. "Early Doubts about the Phillips Curve Trade-Off." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 20, no. 1 (1998): 83–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837200001607.

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The language of graphical analysis has an immediacy which has proven potent in the dissemination of economic ideas (Solow, 1987, p. 186). J. M. Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money contained only one diagram (Keynes, 1936, p. 180), but J. R. Hicks' graphical IS/LM analysis contributed to the popularization of one interpretation of Keynes' message. Paul Samuelson's textbook used many graphs, which may account, in part, for its pedagogical irresistibility (Elzinga, 1992, p. 863). Two graphs, named after A. W. H. Phillips and Arthur Laffer respectively, became particularly influential in post-1960 policy debates. The “theoretical Phillips curve” (Phillips, 1953, p. 31; 1954, p. 308) was of interest mainly to specialists in optimal control theory; and Phillips' second empirical curve (Phillips, 1959) remained unpublished for almost four decades. Yet his first empirical curve (1958) led to policy implications which were accepted by virtually an entire scientific profession almost instantaneously, “with alacrity” (Friedman, 1977, p. 469). It appeared to fill a gap in the Keynesian neoclassical synthesis, and was rapidly adopted by the textbook writers (Samuelson, 1961, p. 383; Lipsey, 1963, p. 438). During the 1960s, it became widely accepted that ongoing inflation would be accompanied by a sustained reduction in unemployment. When inflation came to be associated with increasing rates of unemployment, this reflected adversely on the economics profession in general, and Keynesian economics in particular.

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46

Hsing, Yu. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries." Global Economy Journal 8, no. 4 (2008): 1850150. http://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1524-5861.1438.

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This study finds that there is evidence of a J-curve for Chile, Ecuador, and Uruguay and lack of support for a J-curve for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Increased real income in the home country would improve the trade balance for Brazil and Ecuador and deteriorate the trade balance for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay. Increased real income in the U.S. would improve the trade balance for Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay and deteriorate the trade balance for Brazil and Ecuador. Hence, the conventional wisdom to pursue real depreciation to improve the trade balance may not apply to some of these countries.

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47

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Scott W. Hegerty. "The J-curve and NAFTA: evidence from commodity trade between the US and Mexico." Applied Economics 43, no. 13 (2009): 1579–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840802360328.

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48

FORZANI, LILIANA, and CARLOS TOLMASKY. "A FAMILY OF MODELS EXPLAINING THE LEVEL-SLOPE-CURVATURE EFFECT." International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 06, no. 03 (2003): 239–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021902490300192x.

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One of the most widely used methods to build yield curve models is to use principal components analysis on the correlation matrix of the innovations. R. Litterman and J. Scheinkman found that three factors are enough to explain most of the moves in the case of the US treasury curve. These factors are level, steepness and curvature. Working in the context of commodity futures, G. Cortazar and E. Schwartz found that the spectral structure of the correlation matrices is strikingly similar to those found by R. Litterman and J. Scheinkman. We observe that in both cases the correlation between two different contracts maturing at times t and s is roughly of the form ρ|t-s|, for a certain (fixed) 0 ≤ ρ ≤ 1. Assuming this correlation structure we prove that the observed factors are perturbations of cosine waves and we extend the analysis to multiple curves.

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49

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Augustine C. Arize. "U.S.-Africa trade balance and the J-curve: An asymmetry analysis." International Trade Journal 33, no. 4 (2019): 322–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2019.1570881.

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50

Hsing, Han-Min. "Re-examination of J-curve effect for Japan, Korea and Taiwan." Japan and the World Economy 17, no. 1 (2005): 43–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.japwor.2003.10.002.

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