Academic literature on the topic 'Januarius'

The genus Phalloptychus is revised. Phalloptychus iheringii is removed from the synonym of P. januarius. Three species are recognized: P. eigenmanni, P. januarius, and P. iheringii. Phalloptychus eigenmanni can be distinguished from its congeners by the number of pelvic-fin rays in females, the number of predorsal scales, and the predorsal distance in females. Phalloptychus iheringii and P. januarius can be distinguished by the number of epipleural ribs, number of gonopodial rays, and a significantly different number of vertical bars along body side in females. Lectotypes are designated for Girardinus iheringii and G. januarius. Redescriptions and known distribution ranges are provided for each species as well as an identification key. Derived features supportting the monophyly of the genus and infrageneric clades are presented and discussed. The biogeo-graphic implications of the geographic distribution of Phalloptychus species are discussed.

In the Regional Museum of Srem in Sremska Mitrovica, Serbia, a Roman brick is preserved, containing an inscription (Inv. A/5342). Originating from any of the numerous Roman structures in the capital city of Sirmium - most probably from Site 4 (Villa) or Site 1a (Palace) - the brick exhibits a graffito in Latin which reads as follows: Domino et fraturi Maxime salutem Valerus Januarius Written before the brick was baked, this greeting obviously went from somebody present at the brick plant to another person engaged locally in the business of construction. To address the recipient of a message as dominus frater is a well-attested style in Roman military circles, especially between equals, from the early 2nd century on. Phonologically, the spelling fraturi (for fratri) is a remarkable instance of anaptyxis, vulgar, but only rarely occurring in the sources. The pendent vocative Maxime is probably due to the actual formula being a contamination of two known types, Maximo salutem and Maxime vale. Judging by their cognomenta, both men, Januarius and Maximus, may very well have been of indigenous origin, whereas the nomen Valerius may have been acquired through service in the imperial army or administration under the Tetrarchs.

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the way in which early modern science questioned and indirectly influenced (while being in its turn influenced by) the conceptualization of the liquefaction of the blood of Saint Januarius, a phenomenon that has been taking place at regular intervals in Naples since the late Middle Ages. In the seventeenth century, a debate arose that divided Europe between supporters of a theory of divine intervention and believers in the occult properties of the blood. These two theoretical options reflected two different perspectives on the relationship between the natural and the supernatural. While in the seventeenth century, the emphasis was placed on the predictable periodicity of the miraculous event of liquefaction as a manifestation of God in his role as a divine regulator, in the eighteenth century the event came to be described as capricious and unpredictable, in an attempt to differentiate miracles from the workings of nature, which were deemed to be normative. The miracle of the blood of Saint Januarius thus provides a window through which we can catch a glimpse of how the natural order was perceived in early modern Europe at a time when the Con­tinent was culturally fragmented into north and south, Protestantism and Catholicism, learned and ignorant.

Analyzing the vocabulary and the stylistic techniques in the works of the two authors, dedicated to Bulgaria, the article aims to contribute to a change of the two seemingly contrasting attitudes in their Bulgarian reception. The first is the implicit attitude to MacGahan as a "dangerous" author whose work is not even published with its true title - "The Turkish atrocities in Bulgaria". The focus of the analysis are the passages that deal with the Bulgarian material culture and education, as well as their axiological charge. The second is the negative value-based perception of the Bulgaro-phobic texts of St. Clair, an author obviously considered ineligible for translating into Bulgarian. However, his work might be a valuable source of knowledge about the culture of the Bulgarian national revival, provided that our reception remains neutral and unaffected by his derogatory language.

TWO CARNIVALESQUE EVENTSare referred to in George Eliot'sDaniel Deronda. One is used as an example in a discussion of political expediency: the Archbishop of Naples is said to have sanctioned, in what would now be called a populist gesture, the St. Januarius procession against the plague (1993, 384; bk. 4, ch. 33). The other is embedded in a simile: the attitude of the British mainstream society to Jews is compared with the attitude of the matrons of Delphi to the tired Maenads who had wandered into their city: the matrons “tenderly” minister to the Bacchae and take them “safely to their own borders” (195; bk. 2, ch. 17).

No saint in the Catholic hagiographic tradition has served as a more vivid symbol of martyrdom, veneration, or of God’s profound grace toward a community than San Gennaro (Saint Januarius), the patron saint of the Kingdom of Naples. This essay studies the history and culture surrounding the veneration of San Gennaro. I focus on the longstanding cultivation of cantatas as a vehicle for veneration and for the promotion of catechism and post-Tridentine ideology. The first part of the essay traces political, social, and religious currents that contributed to the growth of the cult. The second part considers late eighteenth-century cantatas by Giovanni Paisiello and Domenico Cimarosa that were created for the Feast of the Traslazione. These works adopt strategies of poetic narrative and musical expression that reflect thematic elements associated with the annual feast. They also represent a musical turning point, incorporating innovative aria types, a widespread use of accompanied recitative and large choral ensembles, and distinctive instrumental sonorities. The Traslazione cantatas thus offer an opportunity not only to examine contemporary cultural currents in early modern Naples, but also to broaden our understanding of the cantata genre and of two leading operatic innovators of the late eighteenth century.

Les Facta et dicta memorabilia de Januarius Nepotianus sont une œuvre qui, jusqu'ici, a toujours été étudiée en tant qu'abrégé des Factorum dictorumque libri de Valère-Maxime et qui, bien qu'éditée à plusieurs reprises, n'a jamais été traduite en français. Notre étude consiste à réhabiliter à la fois l'auteur et l'œuvre, grâce à une traduction accompagnée de notes historiques, et grâce ensuite, après une remise en contexte de la tradition de l'epitome, à une réflexion sur les objectifs de Nepotianus : il est abréviateur de Valère-Maxime certes, mais avant tout professeur et auteur, garant de la morale antique et de la grandeur de l'Empire romain.

Les Facta et dicta memorabilia de Januarius Nepotianus sont une œuvre qui, jusqu'ici, a toujours été étudiée en tant qu'abrégé des Factorum dictorumque libri de Valère-Maxime et qui, bien qu'éditée à plusieurs reprises, n'a jamais été traduite en français. Notre étude consiste à réhabiliter à la fois l'auteur et l'œuvre, grâce à une traduction accompagnée de notes historiques, et grâce ensuite, après une remise en contexte de la tradition de l'epitome, à une réflexion sur les objectifs de Nepotianus : il est abréviateur de Valère-Maxime certes, mais avant tout professeur et auteur, garant de la morale antique et de la grandeur de l'Empire romain.

Syftet med denna uppsats är att modellera och prognostisera Sveriges varuexport, varuimport och handelsnetto. Vi använder oss av data från januari 1975 till och med augusti 2010 för respektive serie. Dessa data testas och jämförs i olika ARIMA- och SARIMA-modeller samt skattas även medelst säsongsreningsprogrammet TRAMO/SEATS. För de modeller som bäst passar serierna genomförs därefter in sample- och out of sample-analyser med felmåtten RMSE och MAPE. Modellerna med bäst felmått och som därpå väljs ut för att göra prognoser för serierna till och med augusti 2012 är (3,1,0)x(0,1,1) för export, (2,1,1)x(0,1,1) för import samt (0,1,1)x(0,1,1) skattad i TRAMO/SEATS för handelsnetto.

Syftet med den här studien var att undersöka hur en diskursiv berättelse skrivs fram i Aftonbladets granskning av fackförbundet Kommunal i januari 2016. Artikelserien handlade om fackliga företrädares bristande samklang mellan ord och handling. Politiker i regeringsställning drogs in och det fanns gott om aktörer som offentligt uttryckte sin kritik. En dryg vecka efter att artikelserien startat annonserade förbundsordföranden sin avgång. Materialet utgjordes av Aftonbladets pappersutgåva under perioden 13 – 21 januari 2016. Undersökningen genomfördes med en kombination av kvantitativ och kvalitativ metod. Först gjordes en kvantitativ innehållsanalys för att skapa översikt över materialet. Därefter gjordes en kvalitativ text- respektive bildanalys för att komma åt den diskursiva berättelsen. För den kvalitativa textanalysen användes modeller och begrepp från medieretorik, diskursanalys och retorik. I den kvalitativa bildanalysen användes en modell byggd på semiotik. Undersökningen pekar mot en diskursiv berättelse som konstrueras av följande delar: Två övergripande teman, ett samspel mellan nyhets- och opinionstexter, en tydlig och närmast arketypisk rollfördelning, fakta som framhäver konflikter och kontraster samt dramatiska effekter i språk och bild. Nyhetsberättelsen om ”Kommunals förlorade heder” överensstämmer i hög grad med John B. Thompsons fem kännetecken för en politisk skandal. Aftonbladet presenterar en konflikt som utvecklas genom komplikationer och polariseringar mellan inblandade parter, vilka i enlighet med triangelhypotesen tvingas reagera offentligt på varandras agerande.
The aim of this study was to examine how a discursive narrative is performed in Aftonbladets investigations on the trade union Kommunal in January 2016. Trade union representative’s lack of consistency between word and action were depicted in a series of articles. Politicians representing the government were involved and there were plenty of actors voicing their criticism. About a week after the start of the series, the chairwoman of the union announced her resignation. The sample consisted of Aftonbladets printed edition between the 13th and the 21st of January 2016. The study was performed with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. It began with a content analysis to get an overview of the material. After that, qualitative text respectively image analyses were carried out to get at the discursive narrative. For the qualitative text analysis methodology and concepts from media rhetoric, discourse analysis and classical rhetoric were used. The image analysis was carried out with a methodology based on semiotics. The study points towards a discursive narrative constructed of the following parts: Two general themes, interaction between news and commentary items, clear and almost archetypal roles, facts utilized to highlight conflicts and contrasts, and dramatic effects in language and images. The news narrative about ”The lost honor of Kommunal” conforms to a great degree to John B. Thompson’s five characteristics of a political scandal. Aftonbladet presents a conflict developed through complications and polarizations between the actors concerned who according to the triangle hypothesis are made to react publicly on each other.

The swedish rule concerning the treatment of employee stock-options have changed and the new wording of the rule will be applicable for the first time in 2010. The previous wording of the rule stated that the employee shall be taxed for the stock-option when moving abroad, even if the option is not exercised. The Swedish Skatteverket and Regeringsrätten have found that this rule is in conflict with the free movement of persons within the European Union. The new wording of the rule states that the employee shall be taxed when the option is excercised, no matter where the employee is situated. A state`s right of taxation of a stock-option determines wheter and to what extent the employee stock-otion derives from that state.

Denna C-uppsats handlar om SvD.se:s nyhetssajt. I en papperstidning är artikeln en sluten produkt vid publicering medan webbnyheten kan ändras löpande. Vi har önskat undersöka huruvida en skönjbar rutin finns på redaktionen och i vilken utsträckning ändringar görs i en redan publicerad nyhet. Införs rättelser vid faktakorrigering och utnyttjas webbens möjligheter i nyhetsproduktionen? För att söka svar på dessa frågor har två tolvtimmarsstudier genomförts på SvD.se. Mellan klockslagen 06.30 och 18.20 sparades samtliga nyheter i vänsterspaltens topp 4, med en veckas mellanrum. Därefter genomfördes en kvantitativ undersökning av samtliga nyheter samt en närläsning av ett urval. Detta urval kompletterades med intervjuer utförda på SvD.se:s redaktion, med nyhetschef samt reporter. Undersökningen visar att rutiner existerar i vissa delar av produktionsledet på SvD.se, bland annat i samband med hur en nyhet byggs ut efter en första publicering. Dock saknas rutiner i stor omfattning i andra delar av produktionen. Detta gäller exempelvis införande av rättelser, ansvar vid publicering och synkronisering med webbnyheten i morgondagens papperstidning. SvD.se utnyttjar i viss utsträckning webbens möjligheter inom nyhetsproduktionen. Bland nyheterna i undersökningen ändrades drygt hälften efter publicering, men ett nästan lika stort antal förblev oförändrade eller fick ny tid för senaste ändring, trots att ingenting ändrats i dem. SvD.se strävar efter tydliga rutiner och bör se över sin stuktur för en fortsatt trovärdig nyhetsproduktion.

In early January 2018, the clothing company H&M released a new collection for children. One of the sweaters in the collection was printed with the text "Coolest monkey in the jungle". The shirt was worn by a dark-skinned child and H&M was accused of racism. This is because the word "monkey" has historically been used as a racist slur to downgrade dark-skinned people. Throughout the scandal H&M has published an official press release, as well as a number of posts on social media, each of which affects the scandal. The purpose of the study is to analyze H&Ms crisis communication with regard to the strategies they used during the shirt scandal. The main question of the study is how did H&M's crisis communication express itself in text during the shirt scandal. The theories used in the study are William Benoit's image repair theory (2014) and Timothy Coombs Situational crisis communication theory (2007), abbreviated SCCT. The methods used are a qualitative content analysis, text analysis and a rhetorical analysis. The qualitative content analysis is based on the chosen theories, so that the survey can extract the underlying message that H&M wants to convey. While the text analysis processes the text itself and how the company wants the reader to perceive the message and how H&M’s texts interact with each other. The rhetorical analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of the text's underlying message and structure with the actual text as a starting point. The rhetorical analysis is done by analysing the text’s structure with the rhetoric disposition scheme as a starting point. H&M’s crisis communication is in this case related to what is proposed in the strategic theories of crisis communication. The main crisis communication strategies used by H&M were admitting responsibility, asking for forgiveness and corrective actions. The rhetoric analysis has shown that the press release and posts on social media have different functions. The press release make greater importance to the structure of the disposition scheme, while the social media posts rather contain certain parts, for example, a greater focus on pathos and the preparatory of counter arguments while communicating to individuals rather than the public.

Penelitian ini dilaksanakan di Laboratorium Lapang Kandang Ayam KUB Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Sumatera Utara. Penelitian ini dilaksanakan pada bulan Januari sampai April tahun 2020. Ayam yang digunakan adalah ayam Kampung Unggul Balitbangtan (KUB) dan Ayam Sentul Terseleksi (Sensi) umur 0-11 minggu sebanyak 80 ekor. Pemeliharaan dilakukan selama 11 minggu. Pakan diberikan secara ad libitum selama pemeliharaan. Pakan komersial (crumble) diberikan pada anak ayam umur sehari (DOC) hingga umur 4 minggu, umur 4-12 minggu diberi perlakuan berupa pakan komersil murni dan campuran pakan lokal. Uji T-test digunakan untuk mengetahui perbedaan penggunaan pakan terhadap bobot badan, pertambahan bobot badan dan mortalitas pada ayam KUB dan ayam Sensi. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, pakan komersil berpengaruh nyata pada bobot badan ayam Sensi pada umur 9 dan 11 minggu dan umur 5, 8 dan 11 minggu pada ayam KUB. Pakan komersil juga berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertambahan bobot badan pada ayam Sensi. Tingkat kematian ayam Sensi dan KUB pada umur 0-4 minggu mencapai 4-5% dan umur 4-11 minggu mencapai 2-3%.

Tanaman merupakan tanaman penghasil devisa negara no 2. Salah satu penyebab produktivitas karet rendah adalah petani perkebunan rakyat yang kurang menguasai teknologi budidaya yang tepat dan jarang menggunakan klon-klon unggul anjuran sesuai standar. Tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu untuk mengetahui pengaruh penggunaan jenis klon dan penambahan pupuk terhadap keberhasilan okulasi cokelat dan pertumbuhan bibit karet. Penelitian dilaksanakan pada tanggal 14 Januari - 1 April 2020 di Kebun Pasir Ucing, PT Pasir Ucing, Bandung, Jawa Barat. Penelitian ini menggunakan dua faktor yaitu perlakuan klon batang atas okulasi coklat yaitu : (K1) Klon PR 261 dan (K2) Klon PR 300 serta perlakuan Pupuk yaitu : (P1) Tanpa Pupuk dan (P2) Pupuk. Setiap perlakuan diulang tiga kali dan setiap satuan percobaan terdapat tiga bibit, sehingga total perlakuan yaitu 36 satuan percobaan. Pengamatan yang diamati yaitu; bahan Tanam, prosentase keberhasilan okulasi, prosentase daun, tinggi tunas, diameter tunas dan pemeliharaan Bibit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perlakuan klon batang atas PR 261 lebih baik dibanding klon batang atas PR 300. Penambahan pupuk menghasilkan pertumbuhan tinggi tunas bibit karet sebesar 6,97 cm dan diameter sebesar 0.29 cm. Kombinasi Perlakuan klon PR 261 dan pupuk urea 4 g polybag-1, Sp-36 2 g polybag-1 dan KCL 1 g polybag-1 meningkatkan pertumbuhan bibit karet.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh risiko pembiayaan, capital adequacy ratio dan operational efficiency ratio terhadap profitabilitas. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif. Desain penelitian ini adalah asosiatif jenis kausal (hubungan sebab akibat). Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah Bank Perkreditan Rakyat Syariah di Provinsi Banten yang terdaftar di OJK pada periode Januari 2017 – September 2019. Teknik pengambilan sampel pada penelitian ini menggunakan teknik sampel jenuh yang menghasilkan 88 sampel penelitian. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan triwulan. Teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah studi pustaka dimana peneliti menghimpun informasi relevan yang berkaitan dengan topik atau masalah yang akan atau sedang diteliti. Analisis data yang digunakan pada peneilitian ini melalui Uji Statistik Deskriptif, Uji Asumsi Klasik, Regresi Berganda, Uji t tabel, Uji F tabel dan Uji Koefisien Determinasi yang diolah melalui SPSS Versi 25. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian dapat disimpulkan bahwa: 1) tidak terdapat pengaruh Non Performing Finance terhadap Return On Assets, 2) terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan Capital Adequacy Ratio terhadap Return On Assets, 3) terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan Operational Efficiency Ratio terhadap Return On Assets, dan 4) terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan Non Performing Finance, Capital Adequacy Ratio, dan Operational Efficiency Ratio terhadap Return On Assets

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.