Academic literature on the topic 'Kansas – Economic conditions – Statistics'

Investment in transportation infrastructure is widely assumed to spur economic growth, a belief that persists among both the general public and government officials. However, research has provided inconsistent evidence to date, and many researchers believe that good transportation is a necessary but insufficient condition for regional growth. This study examines the issue from a different perspective than the majority of past research, using spatial regression techniques to explore the relationship between transportation quality and regional economic development at an intermediate spatial resolution. Using federal highway statistics on pavement roughness and bridge quality, this research examines the relationship between measurable results of transportation spending, as evidenced by better quality roads and bridges, and various indicators of economic health. This relationship is examined in the South-Central U.S. (Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) at the county level and uncovers moderate to weak regression coefficients overall but with notable spatial variations across the study area.

Abstract. Center pivot irrigation systems are the most common system type in Kansas for a variety of factors – one of which is the ability to deliver a uniform depth of water application for a variety of crops and field conditions. Uniform applications are dependent on properly designed, installed and operated sprinkler nozzle packages. Uniformity evaluations were conducted as part of the Mobile Irrigation Lab (MIL) project to promote adoption of improved irrigation management practices with an emphasis on ET based irrigation scheduling. Since efficient and uniform water applications are critical to successful irrigation scheduling; MIL assessment included evaluation of sprinkler package performance using a single line catch can test. Catch can data was used to calculate the coefficient of uniformity (CU) and average application depth. The average CU value of the tested systems was 78.7 with a range of from 91.9 to 53.2. Many of the factors affecting pivot uniformity could have been identified and corrected with a visual inspection and/or comparison to the manufacturer’s sprinkler design specifications. Some of the catch tests indicated poorly designed and/or maintained sprinkler systems with reduced uniformity directly impacting crop performance, water use efficiency and economic results. Initial information was used in extension programs to illustrate the effect of various correctable sprinkler package deficiencies on performance and to encourage irrigation farmers to examine their nozzle packages and operating conditions. Keywords: Center pivot irrigation, Sprinkler packages, Uniformity.

The increased interest in data on entrepreneurship and economic conditions of local character determines the need for systematic expansion of the information provided by economic statistics. The economic need to reduce the costs of creating the official statistics and the pressure to reduce burdens on business units and statistical reporting are limitations. Reconciling these expectations is not easy. On the one hand there is a need to modernize research methodology towards increasing the use of administrative systems. On the other hand, particular attention should be paid to maintaining the proper communication of official statistics with respondents and data users. These projects take on a special dimension in the short-term business statistics, due to the large number and frequency of research. This article presents the challenges and prospects for short-term statistics of enterprises against the existing rules and business conditions.

The recent global financial crisis and the subsequent recession have revitalized the discussion on causal interactions between financial and economic sectors. In this study, I apply the financial stress and the national activity indices–respectively developed by Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City and Chicago–to investigate the impact of financial uncertainty on an overall economic performance. I examine nonlinear dynamics in a vector smooth transition autoregressive framework, and illustrate regime-dependent asymmetries in the financial and economic indices using the generalized impulse-response functions. The results reveal more amplified dynamics during the stressed conditions. I further evaluate benefits of nonlinear modeling in an out-of-sample setting. The forecasting exercise brings out the important advantages that nonlinear modeling provides in the identification of the causal effect of financial instability on overall economic performance.

AbstractThe notion of “economic development” dominates aid policy. A nation’s per capita Gross Domestic Product (gdp) determines whether that country is considered developed or less developed, and the standard measure of any developmental progress isgdpgrowth. This article investigates the evolution of the concept of economic development, as it emerged from a specific combination of modeling, statistics and political circumstances. In this story, Arthur Lewis played a decisive role, but only by building upon Colin Clark’s first global national income statistics, an indispensible foundation for Lewis’s seminal model of economic development. This model was embraced by policy makers longing for a theoretical framework to clarify and operationalize the hitherto vague concept of development. More importantly, however, the statistical indicator on which Lewis based his theory had already been universally accepted. In other words: statistics came before theory. This holds important lessons for alternative development ideas. It explains why the idea of economic development remains so firmly entrenched and suggests the conditions that might be necessary for an alternative theory to take hold.

Electricity consumption is constantly growing in the world. In this connection, there are new urgent problems of increasing energy efficiency and energy conservation. Exactly, the economic development of countries and the change in the citizens’ life quality depends on successful solutions in this sphere. In addition, energy efficiency today is the most important developmental indicator of the national economy. The article discusses electricity consumption statistics in the world, a comparative analysis of the statutory conditions and the main implementing energy efficiency methods and programs in different countries.

This article explores the impact of weather conditions on core sectors of the Ukrainian economy and the composite index of economic activity in Ukraine. We build autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models using statistical data provided by the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Boris Sreznevsky (CGO) and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period 2004-2019. The obtained outcomes show that fluctuations in the air temperature and precipitation are significant determinants of output in different sectors (specifically agriculture, construction, manufacturing, and energy). Therefore, the inclusion of weather conditions into models may potentially improve the modeling properties and forecasting of economic activity.

Abstract The main purpose of the paper is to present some of the mechanisms connected with the functioning of the Polish housing market, with due regard to demand and supply volatility as well as the changing financial conditions at the time of the global financial crisis of the first decade of the present century. Special attention is given to the financial and legal regulations concerning the housing market, which were introduced in response to the economic downturn. On the basis of research conducted by the authors, as well as available reports and statistics for 2007-2013, the article will explore market phenomena (the size and pattern of demand, supply and prices on the housing market, and the changes they undergo) on the one hand, and the legal and financial regulatory changes directly affecting them, on the other. It will also study the effects of the implementation of the recommendations made by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF) by banks in the wake of the global financial crisis. These cause banks to tighten their credit policies and, accordingly, have an impact on their loan portfolios. Information from secondary sources has also been used, notably from the Central Statistical Office (GUS), the KNF, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), as well as the Polish Bank Association (ZBP) and the Credit Information Bureau (BIK). Changes that occurred during the period of economic crisis in the availability of housing have also been examined.

Statistics contribute to the understanding of events by objectifying phenomena, as they are perceived to reflect or be an approximation of reality. This perception is based on the premise that statistical tools are straightforward, apolitical facts. However, quantification and its results are not objective. Definitions are needed beforehand to determine the phenomenon to be measured and the aim of the quantification. Thus, statistics face debates on methods, interpretation and use. Using the Argentine cost of living indices released in 1918, 1924 and 1935 as a case study and following a process of de-construction/construction/re-construction of the series, this thesis studies how, why and by whom statistics are made and used. It suggests that the political economy plays a crucial role in the history of the Argentine cost of living index in the first half of the twentieth century. In the de-construction phase, the thesis analyses various reports to arrive at an understanding how the indices were originally estimated. The construction stage then discusses the people and institutions involved in the production of each index and the methodology that they used, placing both within the political, economic and social context. It looks at how and why each index was produced by analysing their context, uses, contemporary reception and significance. Moreover, the pitfalls that come from the assumptions and methods underlying the indices are demonstrated using data available to those who produced them. Lastly, each CLI estimate is re-constructed by correcting its main pitfalls using the information available when the series were initially developed to depict how different assumptions result in different series. This leads to an alternative cost of living index being presented for the period 1912-1943. The re-construction also comprises a comparison in tandem of the Argentine, US, British and German cost of living indices.

This thesis analyses the contribution of economics and statistics in the transformation of Ghana from colonial dependency to socialist one-party state. The narrative begins in 1948, extending through the years of decolonization, and ends in 1966, when the first postcolonial government led by Kwame Nkrumah was overthrown by a military coup d’état. Drawing on insights from political economy, the history of economics and the sociology of science, the study is constructed as a series of microhistories of public institutions, social scientists, statistical enquiries and development plans. In the period under consideration economics and statistics underwent a radical transformation in their political use. This transformation is epitomised by the two extremes mentioned in the title: the ‘scattered data’ of 1950s household budget surveys were expression of the limited will and capacity of the colonial state to exercise control over different areas of the country. In contrast, the 1960s dream of a monolithic one-party state led the political rulers to use Marxist-Leninist political economy as a cornerstone of the ideological education aiming at creating the ideal citizen of the socialist regime. Based on research in British and Ghanaian archives, the study claims that economists and statisticians provided important cognitive tools to imagine competing alternatives to the postcolonial nation state, finding its most extreme version in the attempt to fashion a new type of economics supporting Nkrumah’s dream of a Pan-African political and economic union. At a more general level, the thesis provides a step towards a deeper incorporation of Sub-Saharan Africa in the history of economics and statistics, by depicting it not simply as an importer of ideas and scientific practices, but as a site in which the interaction of local and foreign political and scientific visions turned economics and statistics into powerful tools of social engineering. These tools created new spaces for political support and dissent, and shifted the boundaries between the possible and the utopian.

This thesis makes use of recently collected UK Community Innovation Survey data to investigate 3 areas that allow to characterise and thus understand more clearly the innovation process in the UK. Firstly strategies of innovation used by firms are identified. Next the determinants of innovation, that is factors driving innovation inputs and outputs, are estimated. Thirdly this work examines the effectiveness of financial public support towards innovation. This also allows to establish which firms are more likely to be in receipt of public support and thus whether government innovation policy is in line with its objectives. Furthermore in this thesis a measure of absorptive capacity for the CIS is created, to see whether this proxy contributes in explaining innovative activities and the receipt of public support towards innovation. Similarly a measure of appropriability is generated for use as an explanatory variable in the estimation of the determinants of innovation. Both of these measures permit to find out if their latent variables have nonlinear effects in explaining propensity and extent of innovative spending. All these aspects have not received attention in previous literature, in large part due to the novelty of the data used. Besides the empirical evidence gained on the above, the addition to the literature of this thesis lies in examining several CIS survey rounds together. For one this serves as a robustness check for the conducted applications and on the other hand it allows investigating the comparability of the survey rounds. For this work the CIS 4, the CIS 5 and the CIS 6 are used as they are the most similar and comparable samples of UK businesses to date. Nevertheless it was found that differences in terms of design, wording and exclusion of responses to some question sets in the different surveys impedes their use for trend analysis and panel data analysis. Something the data collecting agencies need to address in the future. Despite these issues the conducted investigation has provided useful insights into innovation as it takes place in the UK. The first empirical chapter has been able to identify two major modes of innovation as captured by the survey. A ‘traditional’ or ‘linear’ strategy aimed at introducing product and process innovations, relying on innovative activities such as R&D and also making use of sources of information, more strongly from market sources then from science sources. Secondly a ‘dynamic’ or ‘systemic’ strategy also involving innovative activities such as R&D but more strongly making use of knowledge sources from science as well as relying on cooperation. The interpretation of this “blue skies strategy” which is not directly linked to achieving technological outputs is that it generates knowledge that helps to keep abreast of market developments and to be ready to spot opportunities in line with the literature on dynamic capabilities thus the identified strategies allow for a plausible interpretation congruent with innovation theory. In this chapter the aforementioned measure of appropriation and absorptive capacity were also successfully generated. These were then shown to play a significant role in explaining innovative activities in the subsequent empirical chapter, both exhibiting decreasing returns to scale. Following the CDM methodology this work has confirmed that knowledge capital as proxied by predicted R&D spending intensity is as important in generating service innovations as it is in stimulating goods innovations for the UK. The results also show that absorptive capacity not only indirectly impacts the likehood of introducing service innovations through its effect on knowledge capital as for goods innovations but also directly. This suggests that services once conceived further have to be tailored to individual customer’s needs. Hence absorptive capacity is specifically important in a developed economy dominated by service sector industries. At the same time the fit of the models confirmed that the CIS could do better at explaining service and process innovations by soliciting more information that are likely to cause these types of innovation. Finally further support for the innovation productivity nexus has been found. The last empirical chapter then established that absorptive capacity is also an important factor explaining the likehood of firms to be in receipt of financial public support towards innovation. This chapter further concluded that the financial public support towards innovation in the UK has in the recent past been effective at stimulating innovative performance besides just R&D spending. The government’s objective of supporting start-ups, that potentially face difficulties in financing their innovative activities, as well as supporting cooperation, vital for the dissemination of knowledge in the economy, is met according to the results. However SMEs could not be shown to be statistically more likely to be in receipt of public support despite facing the same problems as start-ups, though at least they are not less likely to be in receipt of public support then large firms. This finding stipulates that policy objectives are not achieved with regard to specifically targeting SMEs.

This study investigates whether there is an association between economic activity in women and union dissolution in the UK. This study looks at both individual-level and aggregate-level trends by posing a number of research questions. Using a series of Cox Proportional Hazard and Piecewise Constant models to analyse individual-level data from the British Household Panel Survey and Understanding Society surveys, this study has found only weak and inconsistent evidence of an association between women’s economic activity and union dissolution. Examining these data for separate union cohorts, this study has found some initial evidence that the relationship between economic activity and union dissolution may be changing over time. The final stage of the analysis in this study looked at aggregate trends in economic activity and divorce and found some evidence of an association at the aggregate level, although due to data restrictions this was not conclusive. Following a discussion of the changing status of women and the changing legal, social and cultural context within which unions are formed and dissolved, this study concluded more evidence is found for an association at the aggregate level, leading to the hypothesis that economic activity is contributing to wider social changes and that these social changes are influencing the risk of union dissolution.

The principal objectives of this empirical study were to test the hypothesis that eduction is a major determinant of people's earnings differentials and to calculate private and social rates of return to education of blacks in South Africa excluding Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda and Ciskei. Basically, the data for working men and women used in the study were extracted from the 1985 current Population survey files comprising a sample representative of the black population. Lifetime earnings profiles are constructed from these data for five educational levels, namely, no schooling up to standard 1, standards 2 to 4, standards 5 to 7, standards 8 to 9 and standard 10. Schooling is assumed to account for 60% of the income differentials between these profiles, after adjustment for the differing probabilities of finding work of persons in specific age-education groups. Imputed average household outlays on schooling are taken as the private direct cost of education supplemented by estimates of per pupil spending by the various government departments responsible for black schooling for calculation of the social costs per year of primary and secondary schooling. Indirect cost in the form of imputed foregone earnings are included from standard 5 (age 15) onwards. The resulting private internal rates of return to education of males are about 16% at primary level and 24% for secondary schooling. Corresponding social rates of return are about 6% for primary and 15% for secondary education. The estimates for females indicate that between no schooling and standards 2 to 4 level, the private and social rates of return are -1% and -4% respectively, from standards 2 to 4 to standards 5 to 7 level, private returns of 12% and social returns of 4% are reported and for the remaining secondary school phases private returns of 32% and social returns of 15% are estimated. It is implied that black education is receiving minimal government financial assistance compared to those of the other population groups. The evidence of the results of the study indicates that; besides education, marital status, locational, regional and occupational variables also influence earnings differentials, the governments responsible for black education should emphasize human capital investment in relation to physical capital investment, on average more educated persons are better off than the less educated ones and with the exception of female early primary schooling, generally, it is worthwhile for an individual to undertake a certain educational programme investment

Since the Global Financial Crisis, the literature of financial networks analysis has been trying to investigate the changes in the financial networks structure, that led to the instability of the financial system. The Global Financial Crisis followed by the Great Recession costed taxpayers an unprecedented $14 trillion (Alessandri and Haldane, 2009), austerity and downturns in GDP. The dynamics of the financial networks transferred the collapse of a US housing market bubble into a large meltdown of the financial systems globally. The study of systemic risk and macro-prudential policy has come to the forefront to model and manage the negative externalities of monetary, fiscal and financial sector activities that can lead to system wide instabilities and failure. The dimensions of crisis propagation have been modelled as those that can spread cross-sectionally in domino like failures with global scope, or build up over time, as in asset bubbles. The cross sectional propagation of shocks that occur due to non-payment of debt or other financial obligations with the failure of a financial intermediary or a sovereign leading to the failure of other economic entities, is called financial contagion. Cross sectional analysis of financial contagion can be done using statistical methods or by network analysis. The latter gives a structural model of the interconnections in terms of financial obligations. This dissertation uses both approaches to model financial contagion. The applications include the study of systemic risk in Eurozone Sovereign crisis, the US CDS market and the global banking network. This is organized in three self-contained chapters Our contribution to the literature begins with the study of the dynamics of the market of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts for selected Eurozone sovereigns and the UK. The EWMA correlation analysis and the Granger-causality test demonstrate that there was contagion effect since correlations and cross-county interdependencies increased after August 2007. Furthermore, the IRF analysis shows that among PIIGS, the CDS spreads of Spain and Ireland have the biggest impact on the European CDS spreads, whereas the UK is found not be a source of sovereign contagion to the Eurozone. Next we perform the empirical reconstruction of the US CDS network based on the real-world data obtained from the FDIC Call Reports, and study the propagation of contagion, assuming different network structures. The financial network shows a highly tiered core-periphery structure. We find that network topology matters for the stability of the financial system. The “too interconnected to fail” phenomenon is discussed and shown to be the result of highly tiered network with central core of so called super-spreaders. In this type of network the contagion is found to be short, without multiple waves, but with very high losses brought by the core of the network. Finally we study a global banking network (GBN) model based on the Markose (2012) eigen-pair approach and propose a systemic risk indices (SRI) which provide early warning signals for systemic instability and also the rank order of the systemic importance and vulnerability of the banking systems. The empirical model is based on BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics for the exposures of 19 national banking systems to the same number of debtor countries and the data obtained from Bankscope for the equity capital of these 19 national banking systems. The SRI is based on the ratio of the netted cross-border exposures of the national banking systems to their respective equity capital. The eigen-pair method stipulates that if the maximum eigenvalue of the network exceeds the capital threshold, there is cause for concern of a contagion. This is compared with the loss multiplier SRI proposed by Castrén and Rancan (2012). The latter is found to have no early warning capabilities and peaks well after the onset of the crisis in 2009 while the eigen-pair SRI gives ample warning by late 2006 that the cross border liabilities was unsustainable in respect of the equity capital of the national banking systems. We contribute to the literature by highlighting the efficacy of the network approach to systemic stability analysis of GBNs. In particular we develop an eigen-pair approach for GBNs and prove its usefulness in an early warning context.

The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.

Incorrect Afrikaans summary included in thesis.
Thesis (MPhil--University of Stellenbosch, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study was aimed at using secondary data to conduct an investigation into the relationship between macro-economic factors on one hand and aspects of household life on the other hand. On the basis of the results thereof, an assessment was to be made of how such a relationship reflected on the living arrangements of households in contemporary South African society. The basis of the analysis was secondary data from the October Household Survey (OHS-96) data set, which is rich in specific information encompassing various aspects of human life, like demographic details and household variables as well as health, education and employment variables. As expected, the results showed that the current state of living arrangements of households is characterised by positive relationships between income levels on the one hand and households variables like type of dwelling and dwelling ownership on the other hand. However, the same findings further revealed a surprising outcome that unlike expected, there is no clear relationship between income and another significant household variable i.e. household size (members). However, our findings lead us to a conclusion that on the whole, there is a hypothesised relationship between macro-economic conditions of a country on one hand, and patterns in living arrangements of households on the other hand. The results further revealed that as expected, the factors of magisterial district and race/population groups have an effect on this relationship that reflect our legacy of social and economic development policies of the apartheid era which gave rise to urban (metropolitan) and racial bias in the socio-economic development of households. The results thereof are that African households in particular, and urban poor black households in general, have become the least prosperous in terms of material or economic living conditions. The implications of these findings for theory and policy are highlighted. At the level of methodology, the valuable experience of this study served to further highlight the worth of secondary data analysis, not only in general economic terms, but also as invaluable educational or teaching tool for students which recommends its increased use by all practitioners or institutions of social research methods.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Internet en sy Kuberruimtes is ontwikkel in die 1960s as 'n manier om inligting oor te dra sonder die risiko van intersepsie en vernietiging. Vandag, 40 jaar later het die Internet gegroei in beide grootte en toepassing. Die mees algemene gebruike is nogsteeds kommunikasie en die oordrag van informasie. Hierdie tesis is 'n etnografiese studie van my ervaringe in 'n Kuberruimte van die Internet- 'n virtuele gemeenskap byname Amazon City.com. Virtuele gemeenskappe is areas op die Internet waar mense bymekaar kom om hul daaglikse lewens, kwessies en enige iets toepaslik vir die spesifieke gemeenskap, te bespreek. Die tipe gemeenskap word gesien as 'n reaksie van die verval van "derde plekke" in af-lyn lewe en globalisering Die gemeenskap wat vorm in hierdie areas ontwikkel kulturele veronderstelling. Hierdie veronderstellings word openbaar aan 'n nuwe lid deur tyd en interaksie in die konferensie area. Die veronderstellings wat ek ervaar het strek van kennis benodig om 'n aanvaarde en suksesvolle lid van die gemeenskap te word, tot taal gebruik en identiteit van die lede. Die konklusie is bereik dat lede hul interaksie en lidmaatskap in hierdie gemenskappe as net so bevredigend en "eg" ervaar as hul aktiwiteite in hul af-lyn lewe. Verdere aspekte wat 'n webblad 'n suksesvolle en ekonomiese vatbare besigheids strategie maak vir sy eienaar, was my volgende fokus. Internet besigheid groei teen 'n geweldige spoed, en impliseer nie slegs die verkoop van produkte aanlyn nie. Rekenaar-ondersteunde kommunikasie toestelle is geimplimenteer op kommersiële webbladsye nadat dit gevind is in die vroeë 1990s dat mense soek vir 'n plek wat meer is as net nog 'n winkel. Ander maniere wat hierde dot com webbladsye gebruik om inkomste te genereer en of die lede gesien word as burgers of as verbruikers word ook bestudeer. Daar is gevind dat die lede hulself sien as burgers maar webbladsy lojaliteit sal die lede aanspoor om as verbruikers op te tree indien nodig. Die kommersiële aspekte van die tipe webbladsy is 'n noodsaaklik deel vir die voortbestaan van die dot com webbladsy, en die gemeenskap wat daar ontwikkel.

Cointegration has important implications for portfolio diversification. One of these is that in order to spread risk it is advisable to invest in markets that are not cointegrated. Over the last several decades communication technology has made the world a smaller place and hence cointegration in equity markets has become more prevalent. The bulk of research into cointegration focuses on developed and Asian markets, with little research been done on African markets. This study compares the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests for cointegration and uses them to calculate the level of cointegration between South African and other global equity markets. Each market is compared pair-wise with South Africa and the results have been that in general South Africa is cointegrated with other emerging markets but not really with African nor developed markets. Short-run analysis with the error correction was carried out and showed that in general markets respond slowly to any disequilibrium. Innovation accounting methods showed that the country placed first in Cholesky ordering dominates the other one. Multivariate cointegration was carried out using three selections of 4, 6 and 8 market portfolios. One of the markets was SA and the others were all chosen based on the criteria that they are not pair-wise cointegrated with SA. The level of cointegration varied depending on the portfolios, as did the error correction rates, impulse responses and variance decomposition. The one constant was that the USA dominated any portfolio where it was introduced. Recommendations were finally made about which market portfolio an investor should consider as most favourable.

In this thesis I present three essays that explore various economic situations on strategic choices from different perspectives: the individuals’ strategic decision to work on the informal/formal sector, the US strategic decision on the provision of foreign aid, and the firm’s strategic decision to engage in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). The first essay presents an analysis on the effect of income taxes and its effect on worker’s transitions towards informality. We find that an increase in average tax rate leads to a statistically significant increase in transitions towards informality for women and those with low incomes. The second essay offers evidence of how patterns of US foreign aid to Latin America differ from aid allocation observed elsewhere. We find that while political institutions and events in recipient countries greatly influence US aid allocations, the ideological orientation of US administrations can explain part of the divergent patters of aid towards Latin America. Finally, the third essay studies two possible mechanisms that affect the decision of a firm to engage in CSR: the role of growth in value added and workers’ preferences. The results suggest that firms engage in CSR in times of economic prosperity; peer effects are increasingly important in a firm’s decision to engage in CSR when the proportion of firms within an industry increases. And finally, I find a weak link between workers’ preferences and a firm’s decision to engage in CSR activities related with diversity.

Investment in transportation infrastructure is widely assumed to spur economic growth, a belief that persists among both the general public and government officials. However, research has provided inconsistent evidence to date, and many researchers believe that good transportation is a necessary but insufficient condition for regional growth. This study examines the issue from a different perspective than the majority of past research, using spatial regression techniques to explore the relationship between transportation quality and regional economic development at an intermediate spatial resolution. Using federal highway statistics on pavement roughness and bridge quality, this research examines the relationship between measurable results of transportation spending, as evidenced by better quality roads and bridges, and various indicators of economic health. This relationship is examined in the South-Central U.S. (Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) at the county level and uncovers moderate to weak regression coefficients overall but with notable spatial variations across the study area.

Investment in transportation infrastructure is widely assumed to spur economic growth, a belief that persists among both the general public and government officials. However, research has provided inconsistent evidence to date, and many researchers believe that good transportation is a necessary but insufficient condition for regional growth. This study examines the issue from a different perspective than the majority of past research, using spatial regression techniques to explore the relationship between transportation quality and regional economic development at an intermediate spatial resolution. Using federal highway statistics on pavement roughness and bridge quality, this research examines the relationship between measurable results of transportation spending, as evidenced by better quality roads and bridges, and various indicators of economic health. This relationship is examined in the South-Central U.S. (Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) at the county level and uncovers moderate to weak regression coefficients overall but with notable spatial variations across the study area.

Temryuk prospecting areas are situated in the Volodarskyi district of Donetsk region, in 3 km northen outside the village Starchenkov, on the right bank of the Temryuk River. Geographic coor-dinates to the center of the Temryuk prospecting areas: 37 degrees 12 minutes 30 seconds of eastern latitude, 47 degrees 3 minutes of 30 seconds of northen latitude. The lining materials are widely used in construction as an excellent long-term and durable material. The following types of topo-graphic and geodetic works were performed during the search and assessment works within the Temryuk prospecting areas: geodetic justification; concentration of geodetic laying-out; geophysical support of ground magnetic survey over a network of 100x10 m; binding of drilled wells to points of geodetic laying-out (planned and high-altitude). Temryuk prospecting areas of plagiogranite lin-ing materials has favorable mining and geological conditions for development into blocks. The pro-cessing of scientific works of the world geological community regarding granite (plagiogranite) de-posits led us to the conclusion that the granites of the Temryuk area of the Volodarskyi area have higher geological and economic indicators, the study of which is a further goal for the authors.

Fuzzy system of linear equations (FSLE) plays a major role in various areas such as operational research, physics, statistics, economics, engineering, and social sciences since the parameters of FSLE are not always exactly known and stable in real-life problems. This effect may follow the lack of exact information, changeable economic conditions, etc. Although there exist many review papers on the solution methods for FSLE, they are not based on the applications. This chapter has attempted to provide a short review on real-life applications of FSLE. In addition, for the common application areas, the fundamental models and the solution methods are presented considering the most cited and leading papers in the literature.

This book brings together the work of leading researchers in the fields of epidemiology and public health in Japan. Authors reflected on the evolution of health in the population since the first Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Content is organized according to (1) stages of the life course, (2) major chronic diseases and risk factors, and (3) some significant institutional or geographical connections of Japan to the planet. This chapter summarizes a number of messages and research questions for further discussion. The array of evidence confirms a fundamental idea in social epidemiology: the importance of living conditions—economic, social, institutional, cultural—as the main determinants of the health of populations. More specifically, the official statistics and epidemiological studies based on the Japanese population provide a detailed account of the transitions from a young middle-income country to a super-ageing high-income country. Over this period of transition, including recent years of economic slowdown, Japanese health and longevity has not stopped improving.

This chapter analyzes the conditions needed to design and implement successful special economic zones and industrial parks. It discusses long-term trends and fundamental issues in global trade since trade is the main source of growth for low-income countries that have limited domestic demand. In recent years the story of global trade has often been presented by some economists and development experts as a cause for concern on the export-led growth model that made possible the so-called Asian Miracle that is no longer available for poor countries in Africa or South Asia. But statistics appear to show a turning tide: the value of world merchandise exports rose from $2.03 trillion in 1980 to $18.26 trillion in 2011, equivalent to 7.3 percent growth per year on average in current dollar terms according to WTO trade statistics. But from 2012 to 2014, world trade growth averaged only 2.2 percent, well below the average for the proceeding 20-year period. This has raised the question whether the same shaping factors that have given rise to today's global trade system are likely to continue in the medium and long term.

Based on Chinese ecological policy, we have been studying mangrove ecosystems in southern China, especially from the perspective of pollutants deposition in mangrove wetlands, physiological ecology of mangrove species on the impact of heavy metal pollution and seeking ecosystem restoration. For these, we explored in three aspects: 1) pollutants distribution and ecological risk in main distribution of mangrove, China, 2) eco-statistics and microbial analyses of mangrove ecosystems (including shellfish) in representative locations where mangrove plants are well developed, especially in Shenzhen, a rapid developing economic city in Guangdong Province, 3) ecophysiological experiments on a representative species of mangrove for evaluating combination effects of major nutrient elements and heavy metal pollution on growth and physiological responses of the seedlings. Based on the results, we proposed how to rehabilitate mangrove ecosystem in China under rapidly changing environmental conditions, with a view to our future survival and to provide nature-based solution as well as the public with more ecosystem services.

The ejidatario is the primary agent of land change in the region today, recognizing that this decision-maker is influenced by various policies and programs, both federal and NGO in origin (Ch. 7). Although colonization of the region, especially during the past forty years, has produced a diverse mix of ethnicities, cultural attributes, and economic characteristics, it is still appropriate to speak of a typical ejido household. The characterization of these households detailed here is based in large part on a SYPR project survey conducted in 1997 and 1998, designed to represent the entire study region. Subsequent surveys have been directed to specific issues, such as chili (Ch. 10) and the role of institutions; information from these studies is specified when used here. Most production within the ejido sector of the study region is organized around the semi-subsistence farm (or dual) household (Ch. 11). This unit of production is both a family and an enterprise (Ellis 1993), with the implication that decisions concerning what, how, and how much to produce are made in response to both market signals and the biological and cultural imperatives of the family unit. This chapter explores the socio-economic and farm characteristics of the sampled ejidatario households and presents relevant descriptive statistics. The data demonstrate that the ejido household has been exceptionally dynamic since the late 1960s, moving from a primarily maize-production orientation to a more diversified household economy. A standardized questionnaire with formal and open-ended components was used to elicit socio-economic and land-use data from ejidatario heads of household. In order to ensure a representative sample, data collection proceeded according to a stratified, two-stage cluster sample, with ejidos as the first stage unit and ejidatarios as the second stage unit (Deaton 1997; Warwick and Luinger 1975). The strata were delineated such that ejidos from across the region were represented in the sample, thereby capturing variability in both environmental conditions and in the influence of proximity to roads and markets. This strategy resulted in the random selection of eleven ejidos followed by the random selection of 199 ejidatario households (see Vance 2000 for details), which produced 188 completed surveys.

Changing the economic and structural systems of schooling, as explored in the previous chapter, is essential. But systems change, in and of itself, is insufficient for true transformation (Elmore, 2007). Our schools are more than structural systems. They are communities—networks of human relationships that inform the trajectory of students’ future lives while defining their current experiences. As discussed in Chapter 2, under-resourced, siloed systems create a fractured framework troubled with economic inefficiencies. These same conditions simultaneously promote a splintered relational network. In other words, schools with the greatest opportunity gaps face multiple layers of resource-related stressors that shape not only their physical and systematic design but also the psyches of entire school communities. Parents come to expect that schools lack either the willingness or the ability to help their children and engage with schools in a manner consistent with this underlying belief. Students make sense of the system by figuring out what others expect from “students like them” and acting out their assigned role accordingly. Staff squabble over the few resources that do exist and blame each other for the gaps in support and services available. To mitigate the effects of resource-related stressors we must cultivate school communities of safety, acceptance, and belonging. In this chapter, we ask: How can specific intentional approaches to relationship remediate past experiences of exclusion? Childhood poverty is widespread in the United States and income inequality has become increasingly pronounced in recent years. According to a report published by the National Center for Children in Poverty, nearly half of our nation’s children (30.6 million) live in families classified as “low income,” many without consistent means to meet their most basic needs (Jiang, Ekono, & Skinner, 2016). Nowhere is America’s class divide more evident than in our nation’s schools. Low socioeconomic status has time and again been linked to reduced educational outcomes. Ultimately, students from low-income families nationwide are less likely to graduate on time than their peers (National Center for Education Statistics, 2015).

The statistics of the Prosecutor General's Office of the complaints concerning raiding is presented in article. The reasons of raider captures are analysed, classification of the main mechanisms of raiding is given, and ways of protection of unfriendly absorption are defined.

After the breakup of the Soviet Union and independence declaration of Ukraine in 1991, as in the other Soviet countries, Ukraine has left a heavy industrial based economy with an insufficient technology. Trade relations with Turkey gained momentum in 2004 and has continued its growing until today. This trade relationship has a complementary role and mostly based on intermediate good export. Turkey is the second largest export volume partner of Ukraine and providing the largest trade surplus for Ukraine. Ukraine economy is very sensitive to foreign trade fluctuations, therefore in the 2009 global crisis, Turkey’s trade volume with Ukraine declined more than two times. In 2014, military conflict in the East, Russian trade restrictions, the Hryvnia depreciation and tight fiscal austerity measures have exacerbated the existing macroeconomic challenges of Ukraine and pushed the country into its deepest recession since 2009. This study analyses the Ukraine crisis effects on its economic situation and effects on the Turkey and Ukraine’s economic relationship by using statistical methods. Data sources are: National Bank of Ukraine, State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, Trade Statistics for International Business Development, National Bank of Turkey, Turkish Exporters Assembly, Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkey, as a country has earned trusts of both Ukraine and Russia, is able to lead a peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Furthermore, Turkey should evaluate the possibilities to provide a credit line to Ukraine and it would be useful for Turkey to search the other markets and trade conditions as well.

Poverty and social exclusion are often associated with unemployment, but being employed is not always sufficient to provide decent living conditions for workers and their families. The ‘low-wage’ workers similarly as unemployed are often associated with an image of men and women struggling to support their families and living at risk of poverty and social exclusion. Dealing with the social stratification engendered from the employment status of workers in the post-transition countries represents a challenging task for the academics and policymakers. The aim of the paper is to assess the determinants of poverty in North Macedonia from the point of view of employment status, particularly the differences between low-paid and unemployed workers. We assess the factors affecting the probability of at-risk-of poverty status by estimating a logit model on cross-section data separately for employed and unemployed persons in 2015. The analysis draws from an examination of micro data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) whose main scope is to enable the compilation of statistics on income distribution, as well as indicators of monetary poverty. Besides other personal and household characteristics, being low-paid appears as the most important factor for at-risk-of poverty status among employed persons, while the low work intensity is the most responsible factor for at-risk-of poverty status among unemployed persons. In addition, our analysis reveals that the social transfers do not satisfactorily cover these categories, which assumes that we need a much broader arsenal of respective policy measures aiming to reduce poverty among the vulnerable labour market segments. The proposed policy recommendations cover the following areas: education and training, active labour market policies, unionisation and collective bargaining, wage subsidies and taxation and statutory minimum wage.

Financial support of companies for their development is considered and realised by many countries worldwide, also in Latvia. Latvia has been receiving critical remarks from entrepreneurs in regard to high level of refuse for financing from the financing institution ALTUM which is the principal intermediary of EU funds and provides resources to support entrepreneurship in Latvia. Statistical data indicate that there are significant reductions of micro-enterprises during recent years. The survey data showed that ALTUM rejected 39 % of the surveyed micro-enterprises from those who had submitted applications within three years. In turn, only 6 % of micro-enterprises have received full financing from banks or leasing companies. Funders rejected applications from 9 % of micro-enterprises while another 5 % themselves withdrew funding due to unacceptable conditions. Latvia has to address serious challenges in entrepreneurship development in regions in particular with a lower economic activity. The aim of the paper is to analyse situation of micro-enterprises for receiving funding. Research methods: analysis of scientific publications and results of previous conducted research, analysis of data obtained in survey of enterprises on questions of financing refuse and on evaluations related to financing conditions in recent years. For a more thorough data analysis (used evaluation scale 1-5) indicators of descriptive statistics are applied: indicators of central tendency or location – arithmetic means, mode, median; indicators of variability or dispersion – range, standard deviation, standard error of mean; cross – tabulations; testing of statistical hypotheses using t-test and analysis of variance – ANOVA; correlation analysis. Research results indicate that the use of more precise requirements of financing for micro-enterprises by finance institution ALTUM could benefit in better development of entrepreneurship in regions of Latvia.

Although The Microhole Coiled Tubing Drilling rigs have been used extensively in Canada, their application in the U.S. has been very limited. In an effort to introduce this technology to the U.S. operators; GTI, with the support of DOE/NETL has completed successful field testing of coiled tubing microhole drilling technology. In this paper we report results of field testing of the system in 25 wells drilled in the Niobrara unconventional gas play of Kansas and Colorado. The objective of the field test was to measure and document the rig performance under actual drilling conditions. In these tests, a coiled tubing drilling rig (designed and bulit by Tom Gipson with Advanced Drilling Technologies Inc. (ADT)) was utilized. The rig operations have continued to improve to the point where it now drills a 3,100-foot well in a single day. Well cost savings of approximately 30% over conventional rotary well drilling have been documented. A description of the rig and a summary of its performance in the Niobrara unconventional gas play are included. In addition, an estimate of economic advantages of widespread application of microhole drilling technology in the Lower 48 States is presented.

The main question that this paper seeks to explore is: What contextual factors and conditions are contributing to the present higher education environment in Malta? To address this question, the author conducts a systematic study by examining the changing context of higher education from a legislative, economic and political perspective. The aim of this paper is to outline the determining influences that are shaping Malta’s higher education context.The research methods employed in this paper are mainly two: the first method involves the analysis of documents and data published in international academic journals and local reports. Statistics published by the National Commission for Further and Higher Education (NCFHE) and the National Statistics Office (NSO) were the main sources of local Maltese statistics. The second research method involves national and institutional data that was specifically requested by the author and that was never published before. NCFHE, the University of Malta (UM) and Malta College for Arts, Science and Technology (MCAST) were asked to provide data in order to present a comparative analysis by comparing local data with what has been published internationally. UM and MCAST are the two main public Maltese higher education institutions. In all instances headcount data is presented.

This paper addresses issues of flow field optimization for a water raceway which is used to grow algae for biofuels. An open channel raceway is the typical facility to grow algae in medium to large scales. The algae growth rate in a raceway is affected by conditions of temperature, nutrients, and sunlight intensity etc. These conditions are essentially associated with the fluid mixing in the flow field. Good flow mixing at low consumption of pumping power for the water flow is desirable for an economic algal growth facility. A novel design of an open channel raceway for medium- and large-scale algae growth field has been proposed by the authors previously, which is called High Velocity Algae Raceway Integrated Design (ARID-HV). Optimization analysis using CFD and experimental visualization has been applied to a table-sized ARID-HV test model with various geometries of dams and their spacing in the system. CFD results and flow visualization allow us to understand the flow mixing in the entire raceway. Data is also processed to show the statistics of the locations of ‘fluid particles’ at different height and time period during one flow path. Different flow field designs were thus compared quantitatively based on this statistics according to the understanding that the “tumbling times” of fluid particles at bottom/top of the water is tightly related to the growth rate of algae.

Introduction: Musculoskeletal disorder can result from extreme physical demands at work. It has risen, mainly due to high muscle demands and static postures and generates a significant economic burden to the companies. This short review aims to point out the statistics of the most affected body parts by work-related musculoskeletal disorders, assess absenteeism and presenteeism costs, and evaluate the effectiveness of the interventions. Methodology: According to the PRISMA Statement, the search was performed in 5 electronic databases (Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct, Pubmed). Articles selection was made by the title and abstract analysis, especially those aiming to explain and validate the subject. If the abstract fulfils the objective, the articles were read, and studies were considered that met the defined eligibility criteria. Were chosen articles that realised measurements or considered interventions in healthy human beings, especially in the working population, dated from 2015 to 2020. Results and Discussion: The scrutinised articles were conclusive that the most affected part of the body are the upper limbs, the neck and the upper back. The statistics ofthe affected workers varied according to the country and analysed tasks, but they converge concerning the most affected body parts. It could be noted that women are more affected by musculoskeletal disorders than men, especially older women; the reason, however, is not clearly explained. Muscle injury can lead high economic burden, mostly due to absenteeism and presenteeism. It was noted that the expenditure due to presenteeism is higher comparing to absenteeism in both developed and emergent countries. Conclusions: Due to high costs, companies are deploying strategies to improve work conditions and aware the workers about health and safety. Interventions have shown to be effective in reducing the risk of injuries. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders canbe extremely damaging to the workers’ health and are costly to the companies. Support supervisor interventions effectively improve work conditions and reduce the risk of damaging outcomes, increasing workers’ health, work ability, and, consequently, productivity.

The rapid economic growth of many companies brings with it the need to pay more attention to issues of management and leadership of people in the conditions of a centralized model of economic management, as well as mental readiness for work and social position in business. Mental balance is one of the most important mental equipment of traders in personal and professional life. Therefore, in the article we assess the necessity of psychohygiene in the work of traders. Its role is to support and create favorable psychological conditions. The aim of the research is to determine the existence of statistically significant differences in the assessment of the attributes of psychohygiene between customers and traders. The research sample, out of the total number of 177 respondents, consists of 125 (70.6%) women and 52 (29.4%) men aged 18 - 70 years, while the average age is 41.08 years, the standard deviation is 7.913 years. Of the total number of respondents, 97 (54.8%) were traders and 80 (45.2%) were customers. The length of the respondents' internship ranged from 1 to 40 years (average 17.25 years, standard deviation 8.679 years). The research results were processed in statistical program IBM SPSS Statistics 22.00 and assessed by t- test for two independent samples. The authors focused on mental health care, proper lifestyle, stressors, work environment and time management.

This paper addresses the poverty risk issues in the context of sustainable development of rural areas. Empirical materials included in this paper are based on EU-SILC (European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) partial studies, and provide a reference point for comparing the EU income distribution and social integration statistics. Poverty reduction and counteracting social exclusion are among the key Millennium Development Goals. According to studies, one in four inhabitants of EU rural areas is at risk of poverty or social exclusion. While the highest shares of at-risk population are recorded in Bulgaria (54.8%) and Romania (50.8%), the levels reported by Poland and Lithuania are also above the EU average (by 4.5 and 9.2 percentage points, respectively). At the other end of the spectrum, the risk rate in the Netherlands and Czech Republic is 12.8%. For the households, income is a factor underpinning their economic safety and, thus, their confidence. The amount of incomes affects the objective poverty levels measured with a parametric method. In the EU, persons earning no more than 60% of the national median income are assumed to be at risk of poverty. Therefore, the risk of poverty affects nearly every fifth inhabitant of EU rural areas. Poverty and social exclusion are multidimensional aspects which result in unmet needs in multiple areas: healthcare, education, housing, culture and leisure. While triggering some kind of feedback loop, insufficient incomes are both the cause and the effect of deprivation of needs. Also, they provide favorable conditions for an unsustainable development of rural areas.

Forest and wildland fires are a natural part of ecosystems worldwide, but large fires in particular can cause societal, economic and ecological disruption. Fires are an important source of greenhouse gases and black carbon that can further amplify and accelerate climate change. In recent years, large forest fires in Sweden demonstrate that the issue should also be considered in other parts of Fennoscandia. This final report of the project “Forest fires in Fennoscandia under changing climate and forest cover (IBA ForestFires)” funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, synthesises current knowledge of the occurrence, monitoring, modelling and suppression of forest fires in Fennoscandia. The report also focuses on elaborating the role of forest fires as a source of black carbon (BC) emissions over the Arctic and discussing the importance of international collaboration in tackling forest fires. The report explains the factors regulating fire ignition, spread and intensity in Fennoscandian conditions. It highlights that the climate in Fennoscandia is characterised by large inter-annual variability, which is reflected in forest fire risk. Here, the majority of forest fires are caused by human activities such as careless handling of fire and ignitions related to forest harvesting. In addition to weather and climate, fuel characteristics in forests influence fire ignition, intensity and spread. In the report, long-term fire statistics are presented for Finland, Sweden and the Republic of Karelia. The statistics indicate that the amount of annually burnt forest has decreased in Fennoscandia. However, with the exception of recent large fires in Sweden, during the past 25 years the annually burnt area and number of fires have been fairly stable, which is mainly due to effective fire mitigation. Land surface models were used to investigate how climate change and forest management can influence forest fires in the future. The simulations were conducted using different regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Simulations, extending to 2100, indicate that forest fire risk is likely to increase over the coming decades. The report also highlights that globally, forest fires are a significant source of BC in the Arctic, having adverse health effects and further amplifying climate warming. However, simulations made using an atmospheric dispersion model indicate that the impact of forest fires in Fennoscandia on the environment and air quality is relatively minor and highly seasonal. Efficient forest fire mitigation requires the development of forest fire detection tools including satellites and drones, high spatial resolution modelling of fire risk and fire spreading that account for detailed terrain and weather information. Moreover, increasing the general preparedness and operational efficiency of firefighting is highly important. Forest fires are a large challenge requiring multidisciplinary research and close cooperation between the various administrative operators, e.g. rescue services, weather services, forest organisations and forest owners is required at both the national and international level.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In Hungary, NEET Youth are faced with many problems: social exclusion; lack of opportunities (e.g., education, health, infrastructure, public transport, labour market conditions); low so-cio-economic status; and, a lack of relationships outside the enclosed settlements. In Hungary, the most frequent risk factors are: a socio-economically disadvantageous envi-ronment; low levels of education and schooling problems; lack of proper housing; financial problems; learning difficulties; dissatisfaction with the school; socio-emotional disorders; delinquency; health problems; homelessness; and, drug or alcohol abuse. NEET Youth are fa-cing with this multi-dimensional difficulties, regional disparities and a lack of proper services.The general employment statistics have been improving in Hungary since 2010. The emplo-yment rate of the 15-39-year-old population has increased from 53.0% to 62.5% between 2009 - 2019. The employment rate improved in every type of settlement/area. The improve-ment can be attributed to the community work in the marginalised regions micro-regions and settlements. The NEET rate shows a considerable improvement of nearly 40% between 2009 and 2019 in the urban environment for all age groups. A slight improvement can be detected in the towns and urban environment, which amounts to 25% for all age groups between 2009 and 2019. However special services and targeted programmes are required to make a diffe-rence for NEET Youth.