Academic literature on the topic 'Kondratiev approach'

This chapter traces the first debates on scientific prediction in the postrevolutionary Russia of the 1920s and 1930s. Focusing on the Russian pioneer of economic forecasting, Nikolai Kondrat'ev, the chapter situates the early Soviet approach to scientific prediction in the context of the long nineteenth century and French positivism. The chapter shows that some of the early positivist thinkers involved in making social and economic predictions were aware of the limitations of the approach and the link between scientific epistemology and institutional practice. They recognized that statistical numbers can create an illusion of control, especially when governance at a distance is at stake: large-scale and long-term governmental imagination operates with maps and numbers. Such visibility came at the cost of distortion and disregard of the local. When applied to future developments, the meaning of numerical prediction becomes even more complicated.

The purpose of the paper examines the development of conceptual foundations of socio-economic forecasting. The subject of the study is socio-economic forecasting. The aim of the study is to carry out the conceptual analysis of social and economic forecasting. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the fundamental provisions of the theory of public administration, strategic planning, the work of domestic and foreign scientists in public administration, public administration, methodology of public administration science, forecasting, strategic planning. The choice of the subject of research was made by analyzing the development of forecasting in Ukraine and scientific opinion on the research problem. The study used general and special methods, in particular: analysis and synthesis in the formation of the theoretical basis of the study; analytical approach in the selection of scientific information on the research topic; comparative and logical-semantic methods used in the study of the conceptual apparatus and clarification of the concept of forecasting; systemic and historical in the analysis of the origins of the formation of the science of socio-economic forecasting; modeling method in identifying the principles of socio-economic forecasting; generalization – in developing the conclusions of the study. The analysis of the sources of formation of conceptual bases of social and economic forecasting are carried out. The origins of the formation of socio-economic forecasting are analyzed, in particular, the scientific contribution of I. Bestuzhev-Lada, M. Kondratiev, B. Lazarev, V. Lysychkin, N. Likarchuk, V. Matvienko, J. Forrester, J. Furastier, W. Rostow, S. Teleshun and others. Through the prism of the conceptual views of scientists who studied forecasting formed the concept of “forecasting of socio-economic development”. This is the process of developing forecasts of social and economic development of the country, certain sectors of the economy or individual administrative-territorial units, the possible state of the economy and social sphere in the future, as well as alternative ways and terms of achieving parameters of economic and social development. Socioeconomic forecasting based on scientific methods of cognition of socioeconomic phenomena. The principles and methodology of socio-economic forecasting are highlighted. From the variety of principles of socioeconomic forecasting can be distinguished those that distinguish forecasting from other management functions and indicate its exceptional features. These are the principles of probability, verifiability. Other principles point to the close connection between forecasting and management, namely: systematicity, coherence, continuity, integrity, scientificity and others. The methodology of socio-economic forecasting and application of methods at the stages of forecasting are considered. At the first stage, the problem is studied, which is best done using scanning methods, brainstorming. The second stage involves a qualitative analysis of the problem. This analysis can be performed using the method of cross-exposure. The third stage is the writing of scripts, using the method of analysis of hierarchies, the method of writing scripts. The fourth is the analysis and selection of scenarios using the Melissa Schilling Technological Prediction Method. This method considered the most effective because it focuses on the practical component.

Representatives of the Soviet underground who chose to be autonomous from the censored literary and artistic environment in the USSR, regarded their position as a “double separation” from the pre-revolutionary and revolutionary culture of the Soviet Russia of the 1920s on the one hand and from the world culture on the other hand. According to many of them, their mission was not only to comprehend but also to overcome the separation, to reconnect with the past culture of their country and to get synchronized with the modern artistic and literary processes. An important role in the process of synchronization was played by the fact that the uncensored writers of the second half of the 20th century got acquainted with concrete poetry, especially German poetry, which started penetrating the “Iron Curtain” with the anthologies of concrete poetry and some translations into Russian which were primarily made to discredit “the bourgeois art”. One of the most difficult tasks for the researchers of these processes is to distinguish between the examples of direct influence of concrete poetry texts and manifests in the works of the unofficial Soviet authors and those reflecting their own approach, which was typologically similar to the one used by their Western colleagues and produced similar independent results. The article analyzes various forms of both creative reception and independent search for approaches to concrete poetry used by uncensored poets of the Soviet period, including Leningrad poets of the “Malaya Sadovaya” circle (V. Erl, L. Aronzon) “Lianozovo School” (G. Sapgir, I. Kholin, Vs. Nekrasov) as well as the authors whose works were published in 1985 in the first anthology of Russian concrete poetry (A. Ocheretyanskiy, V. Barskiy, V. Bakhchanyan, A. Kondratov and others).