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Fontaine, Corentin M. "Residential agents and land use change modelling." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/4626.
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Urbanisation is driven by the complex interactions of many physical and human factors where human actions and decisions, individually and collectively, ultimately shape the patterns of urban landscapes. Agentbased modelling is an emerging technique in land use science that is designed to study multiple heterogeneous and locally interacting active entities within a system. An example of a local interaction is the request made by residents to planners for building permits. The decisions of planners in response to this request leads to emergent properties at an aggregate level such as city growth, assuming no equilibrium conditions. This thesis develops a framework for investigating in space and in time future residential land use change over a polycentric region using a case study of East Anglia, UK. Conceptually, the framework views the complexity of housing development in a system of cities (macrogeographical level) as the visible and concrete outcome of interactions between household demand for new dwellings (micro-geographical level) and the supply of building permits by local planners (meso-geographical level). Demand and supply are driven by household location preferences, as well as local planning, and evolve over time, leading to future land use change at speci c locations. The IPCC socio-economic scenarios are adapted to describe plausible evolutions in these preferences and strategies in order to evaluate di erent urban land use change pathways and the associated potential consequences for people (e.g. ooding risks) and the environment (e.g. biodiversity loss from land fragmentation). Simulation of new housing scenarios is undertaken within the agent-based modelling paradigm using a new computer programme developed in NetLogo. Issues of sensitivity analysis, validation, calibration and system complexity are addressed throughout the thesis. The thesis contributes to the eld of landscape and urban ecology by exploring urban complexity with a spatio-dynamic model of residential location behaviour driven by human and natural variables. As land use and land cover change is known to strongly a ect ecological landscape functions and processes, understanding the relationships between social and natural systems within changing landscapes helps to highlight hotspots of potential pressure and their e ects on the natural environment as part of an assessment of the possible ecological impacts of new urban development.
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Batunacun. "Modelling land use and land cover change on the Mongolian Plateau." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/21796.
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Der Bezirk Xilingol wurde als geeignetes Beispiel ausgewählt, weil es zu einem großen Flächenanteil von Grassteppe bedeckt ist und fast alle Phasen der Umweltpolitik Chinas durchlaufen hat. Es wurden zwei deutlich voneinander abgrenzbare Phasen identifiziert, von 1975 bis 2000 und von 2000 bis 2015. Während der ersten Phase, bis 2000, war Landdegradation der dominante Landnutzungswandelprozess, der 11.4 % der Gesamtfläche betraf. In dieser Phase war die menschliche Einflussnahme der Hauptfaktor in acht Landkreisen, die sich ändernden Wasserverhältnisse war es in sechs Landkreisen. Während der zweiten Phase, ab 2000, setzte ein spürbare Erholung des Zustandes auf 12 % des Gesamtgebietes ein, während die Degradation jedoch weiter voranschritt und zusätzliche 9,5 % des Landes veränderte. Während dieser Phase wurde die Städtebildung zum dominanten Treiber für die Landdegradierung in sieben Landkreisen, während der Einfluss menschlicher Störungen und der Wasserverfügbarkeit wieder zurückging.
Nach der Identifizierung der Haupttreiber für die Landdegradation, wurde die komplexe Beziehung zwischen verschiedenen Treibern und der Grassteppen-Degradation untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass die Beziehung zwischen dicht bedeckter, moderat bedeckter, und spärlich bedeckter Grassteppe und die Dichte des Schafbesatzes für die Degradationsdynamik in der Grassteppe verantwortlich waren.
In dieser Arbeit wurden die Methoden der Clusteranalyse, der Partial-Order-Theorie, und der Hasse Diagramme eingesetzt, um die Haupttreiber der Landdegradation auf Landkreisebene zu identifizieren. Dann wurde ein Ansatz aus dem maschinellen Lernen, XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) verwendet, um die Dynamik der Grassteppen-Degradation vorauszusagen. Darüber hinaus wurde SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) eingesetzt, um das von XGBoost erstellte Black-Box-Modell zu in seine Bestanteile zu zerlegen und für jedes Degradations-Pixel in der Karte den Haupttreiber zu extrahieren.<br>The aims of this thesis are to gain an integrated and systematic understanding of the processes and determinants of land degradation on the Mongolian Plateau. Xilingol was chosen as a suitable example, mainly since it is covered by vast grassland, and has experienced almost all ecological policies that have been implemented in China. Two distinct phases were identified in this region: 1975-2000 and 2000-2015. During the first phase (up to 2000), land degradation was the dominant land use change process, accounting for 11.4% of the total area. During this phase, human disturbance was the major driver in eight counties, whereas the water condition was the dominant driver in six counties. During the second phase (post-2000), land restoration increased (12.0% of the total area), whereas degradation continued, resulting in a further 9.5% of degraded land. During this phase, urbanisation became the dominant driver of land degradation in seven counties, while effects resulting from human disturbance and water availability decreased after 2000.
After identifying the major drivers of degradation, the complex relationships between drivers and grassland degradation were captured. The results indicated that the distance to dense, moderately dense grass and sparse grass and sheep density were responsible for the grassland degradation dynamics.
In this thesis, a clustering method, partial order theory and Hasse diagram techniques were first used to identify the major drivers of land degradation at the county level. Subsequently, an approach from machine learning, XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), was used to predict the dynamics of grassland degradation. Moreover, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values were used to open up the black box model, and the primary driver was extracted for each pixel showing degradation.
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Tizora, Petronella Chenayi. "Modelling land use and land cover change in the Western Cape Province." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/65948.
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The Western Cape Province is currently faced with population growth, declining household sizes, increasing household numbers, high levels of migration, urbanization and escalating development pressures. These factors have consequently triggered changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and incited issues such as urban sprawl, marginalization of the poor, limited public access to resources, land degradation and climate change. Furthermore, the issues surrounding LULC in the Province emanate from past inequities in access to land coupled with unsustainable land use practices. This poses a challenge to the government which strives for a sustainable nation that safeguards democracy by providing basic access to services, managing limited resources and advancing effective and efficient integrated planning whilst maintaining ecosystem functions. Understanding drivers of LULC change and how various factors influence LULC is important in meeting this challenge. Models which integrate and evaluate diverse factors of LULC change can be used to guide planners in making more informed decisions and achieving a balance between urban growth and preservation of the natural environment. The implementation of these models at a regional scale is however very limited in South Africa. LULC change models are valuable if their structures are based on deep knowledge of the system under investigation and if they produce credible results. This study therefore investigates the suitability of LULC change models in simulating LULC changes at a regional scale by quantifying changes in LULC in the Western Cape Province, determining the driving factors of LULC changes and exploring and implementing a regional land use change model. An investigation of changes in LULC was conducted by integration of a desktop study of LULC maps using the 1990 and 2013-2014 South African National LULC datasets; document analysis; and expert opinion in the form of semi-structured interviews with municipality town planners. An adapted Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) Framework was used to analyse and present LULC changes in the study area. A literature review was conducted in shortlisting of models and further evaluations involved analysis of the models using selection criteria which focused on the model’s relevance to the study area, linkage potential to other models or software, transferability, user friendliness, data requirements and cost. The results of this study show that LULC changes in the Western Cape Province are driven by political, economic, technological, demographic, environmental and cultural factors which must be considered in strategies and policies in future planning to avoid detrimental impacts on the environment whilst maintaining socio-economic benefits. These factors were integrated in a hybrid model that was successfully implemented in the study area by combining Dyna-CLUE and Markov concepts. The hybrid model produced probability maps and simulation maps for the years between 1990 and 2014. Validation of the simulated maps was conducted using both visual and statistical analysis and the results indicated that the simulated maps were in good agreement with the validation map. Data availability was observed as the main drawback which influenced both the implementation of other suitable models and the accuracy of simulated maps. This study however contributes to the understanding of driving factors of LULC change and implementation of LULC change models at a regional scale in the South African context. Knowledge derived from this study can be used by planners as a guide to effectively gauge the impacts that planning policies and other driving factors might have on future LULC patterns in the Western Cape Province.<br>Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2018.<br>Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology<br>MSc<br>Unrestricted
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Carneiro, Tiago Garcia de Senna. "Nested-ca: a foundation for multiscale modelling of land use and land cover change." Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, 2006. http://urlib.net/sid.inpe.br/mtc-m17@80/2007/01.03.11.57.
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Este trabalho apresenta a base matemática do modelo chamado Autômatos Celulares Aninhados (Nested-CA), um modelo de computação destinado ao desenvolvimento de modelos de mudança de uso e cobertura do solo em múltiplas escalas. As principais propriedades do modelo nested-CA são descritas e comparadas aos modelos de computação baseados em agentes e em autômatos celulares. O modelo nested-CA foi implementado em uma ambiente computacional, chamado TerraME, que oferece uma linguagem de alto nível para a descrição de modelos, um conjunto de estruturas de dados espaço-temporais para a representação e simulação dos modelos, um modulo para o gerenciamento e análise de dados espaço-temporais integrado a um sistema de informações geográficas, e um conjunto de funções para calibração e validação dos modelos. As decisões de projetos envolvidas no desenvolvimento do ambiente de modelagem TerraME são descritas. A arquitetura do ambiente é detalhada e suas principais propriedades são comparadas com outras plataformas de modelagem: Swarm, STELLA, e GEONAMICA. Finalmente, o conceito de nested-CA e o ambiente TerraME são demonstrados em duas aplicações de mudança de cobertura do solo para a Amazônia brasileira.<br>This work presents the mathematical foundations of the Nested Cellular Automata (nested-CA) model, a model of computation for multiple scale Land Use and Land Cover Change studies. The main properties of nested-CA model are described and compared to the agent-based and cellular automata models of computation. The nested- CA model has been implemented in a software environment, called TerraME (Terra Modeling Environment), which provides a high-level modeling language for model description, a set of spatiotemporal data structures for model representation and simulation, a module for spatiotemporal data management and analysis integrated to a geographic information system, and a set of functions for model calibration and validation. We describe the main design choices involved in the development of the TerraME modeling environment. Its architecture is detailed and the main properties are compared with other modeling tools: Swarm, STELLA, and GEONAMICA. Finally, the concept of nested-CA and the TerraME architecture are demonstrated in two applications of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon.
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Gottschalk, Pia. "Modelling soil organic carbon dynamics under land use and climate change." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2012. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=186643.
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Soil organic matter (SOM) models simplify the complex turnover dynamics of organic matter in soils. Stabilization mechanisms are currently thought to play a dominant role in SOM turnover but they are not explicitly accounted for in most SOM models. One study addresses the implementation of an approach to account for the stabilization mechanism of physical protection in the SOC model RothC using 13C abundance measurements in conjunction with soil size fractionation data. SOM models are increasingly used to support policy decisions on carbon (C) mitigation and credibility of model predictions move into the focus of research. A site scale, Monte Carlo based model uncertainty analysis of a SOM model was carried out. One of the major results was that uncertainty and factor importance depend on the combination of external drivers. A different approach was used with the SOM ECOSSE model to estimate uncertainties in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes of mineral and organic soils in Scotland. The average statistical model error from site scale evaluation was transferred to regional scale uncertainty to give an indication of the uncertainty in national scale predictions. National scale simulations were carried out subsequently to quantify SOC stock changes differentiating between organic and mineral soils and land use change types. Organic soils turned out to be most vulnerable to SOC losses in the last decades. The final study of this thesis emplyed the RothC model to simulate possible futures of global SOC stock changes under land use change and ten different climate scenarios. Land use change turned out to be of minor importance. The regionally balance between soil C inputs and decomposition leads to a diverse map of regional C gains and losses with different degrees of certainty.
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Son, Ill. "Modelling the hydrological effects of land-use change in small catchment." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.358382.
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Rodríguez, Eraso Nelly. "Land-cover and land-use change and deforestation in Colombia: spatial dynamics, drivers and modelling." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/84004.
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Este estudio analiza el cambio en la cobertura y uso del suelo con énfasis en los procesos de deforestación en dos regiones contrastantes de Colombia: Andes y Guyana, entre 1985 y 2005. Se aplicó un enfoque espacial y temporal a partir del análisis del cambio de uso y cobertura del suelo (LULCC) para evaluar y predecir los procesos de cambios asociándolos a variables explicativas y junto con métricas del paisaje y sistemas de información geográfica se analizaron patrones y tendencias de deforestación.
La utilización del suelo es el resultado de la interacción de una serie de factores biofísicos, económicos, tecnológicos, institucionales, culturales, etc, que operan en un rango de escalas espaciales y temporales y se correlacionan con los procesos y patrones del paisaje. Dado que los cambios en el uso de la tierra son cada vez más rápidos, es necesario comprender las fuerzas que impulsan esos cambios y predecir sus efectos sobre los procesos del ecosistema o del ambiente global
La información de cobertura del suelo para el presente estudio se basó en la interpretación de imágenes satelitales y las variables explicativas incluyeron datos biofísicos y socioeconómicos provenientes de una amplia gama de fuentes de información. Para la región de los Andes, el enfoque se dirigió a la aplicación de modelos de cambio de la tierra y de deforestación entre bosques montanos (montane forest) y bosques de piedemonte (lowland forest), usando enfoques espacialmente explícitos (Land Change Modeler-LCM) y modelos lineales generalizados (GLM). A nivel de la región de la Guayana, se estudiaron los patrones de deforestación en los modelos de ocupación típicos de la región, comparando tasas de cambio, patrones del paisaje y efectividad de figuras de conservación. Finalmente se modelizo el potencial de cambio futuro en ambas regiones prediciendo su evolución e identificando zonas de alto riesgo de deforestación y sus implicaciones frente a la conservación de la biodiversidad.
Las tasas de deforestación varían entre las regiones y al interior de ellas. Para los Andes la tasa anual de deforestación fue de 1.41%, mientras que para Guayana de 0.25%; sin embargo en Guyana se evidenciaron las mayores tasas asociadas con una fase rápida e intermedia de pérdida de bosque en un modelo de transición de colono a establecimientos permanentes. Los modelos utilizados en esta tesis, sugiere que el modelo espacial de LCM basado en probabilidades de Markov tiene un mejor respuesta para explicar los cambios en el uso del suelo que los modelos lineales generalizados. La variable explicativa que mayor incide en los procesos de cambio de uso del suelo y deforestación es la distancia de las carreteras, pero existen variables como la actividad económica, pendiente, distancia a pastos y precipitación que impulsan procesos de cambio y el peso de estas variables depende del tipo de bosques y la región.
Los resultados de esta tesis mostraron que algunas figuras de protección como el sistema de parques naturales nacionales y los resguardos indígenas pueden ser efectivas para frenar procesos de deforestación y que las zonas de transición entre Andes y Amazonia, Orinoquia y Magdalena Medio se encuentran bajo una mayor amenaza de conversión probable debido a su accesibilidad y migración de la población. Finalmente, una mejor comprensión de la dinámica de LULCC en Colombia, es un paso importante en el desarrollo de estrategias de planificación del territorio y conservación de la región y las investigaciones futuras deberán evaluar la incidencia de las políticas nacionales tales como tenencia de la tierra, REDD, políticas sectoriales, económicas y energéticas ante cambios en el uso del suelo y la deforestación.<br>This study analyzes the land cover change with emphasis on the deforestation processes in two contrasting regions of Colombia: Andes and Guyana between 1985 and 2005. A spatial and temporal statistical approach was applied from the analysis of land cover change to evaluate and predict the processes of change associated with explanatory variables and together with metrics of landscape and systems of information patterns and tendencies of deforestation were analyzed.
Land use is the result of the interaction of a series of biophysical, economic, technologic, institutional and cultural factors, among others, that operate in a level of spatial and temporal scales and correlate with landscape processes and partners. Given land change are faster and faster, it is necessary to understand the strengths that drive those changes and predict their effects on the processes of the ecosystem or the global environment.
Land use information for this study was based on the interpretation of satellite images and the explanatory variables including biophysical and socioeconomic data from a wide range of source of information. For the Andean region, the approach was directed towards the application of land change and deforestation models in montane and lowland forests, using Land Change Modeler – LCM and Generalized Lineal Models (GLM). At the level of La Guyana region, the patterns of deforestation were studied in the models of typical occupation of the region, comparing change rates, landscape patterns and effectiveness of figures of conservation. Finally the potential of change was modeled in both regions predicting its evolution and identifying zones of high risk of deforestation and their implications in the conservation of the biodiversity.
The rates of deforestation vary in the regions and in the inside of them. For the Andean region the annual rate of deforestation was 1.41%, whereas for Guyana was 0.25%; however in Guyana the highest rates were showed associated with a fast and intermediate stage of loss of forest in a transition model from settler to permanent establishment. The models used in this thesis, suggest that the spatial model of LCM based on probabilities of Markov has a better response to explain land use changes than the generalized lineal models. The explanatory variable that greatly affect in land use change processes is the distance of roads, but variables like the economic activity, slope, distance to pasture and precipitation exist and drive processes of change and the burden of these variables depend on the type of forests and the region.
The results of this thesis showed that some figures of protection like the system of National Natural Parks and the indigenous reserves can be effective to hold deforestation processes back and that the transition zones between Andes and Amazonia, Orinoquia and Magdalena Medio are under a greater threat of conversion probably because of their accessibility and migration of the population. Finally, a better understanding of the dynamic of LULCC in Colombia, is an important step in the development of strategies of planning of the territory and conservation of the region and the future investigations must evaluate the incident of the national policies, like land ownership, REDD, sectorial, economic and energetic policies in the view of land use change and the deforestation.
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Teerarojanarat, Sirivilai. "Micro-simulation urban land use change modelling : the case of Ladprao, Bankok, Thailand." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/540.
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This thesis focuses on modelling the spatial pattern of urban growth of Ladprao, a district of Bangkok, Thailand. The first part of the thesis reviews the urban growth and land use change problems in Bangkok as well as the current role of urban planning and its limitations, in order to provide the context of this study. A GIS-based cellular automata (CA) model has been developed, where the multinomial logistic regression (MNL) and multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have been integrated to identify the potential cells for development. Customized tools have been developed using a VBA macro within the ARCGIS environment to facilitate the implementation of urban simulation. The developed model has been applied to replicate the spatial pattern at the detail of the district level, focusing on the change of land from vacant to residential, commercial, and industrial during the period 1993 - 2001. Validation of the model has been undertaken through the comparison between the 2001 simulated and actual land use maps. The simulation was unsuccessful in reproducing the actual growth. In terms of the spatial agreement, the overall accuracy was about 30% (31.59% and 32.01% with MNL and MCDA respectively). In terms of urban morphology, the results showed the emergence of urban development in a space-filling pattern. Urban growth over discrete time-steps acted as a process of building accretion, appearing as a growing cluster around the existing development. In the actual pattern, the emergence of development was dispersed over the study area. The unexpected, but interesting, results of this observation have led to the conclusion of the three possible reasons; the inappropriateness of the CA approach to simulate the pattern of urban district level growth, the inability to include all significant development factors of the study site, and finally the distinctive characteristics of Ladprao and Bangkok area itself. Though the results are unpromising, the developed model can be considered as the first in the Bangkok area that attempts to be used as a spatial micro simulation tool operated at the district level. Future research work, if data permits, also suggests adding more development factors, adapting the agent-based modelling to the application, and extending the simulation to the growth of other areas of Bangkok both in the district and city level in order to help improve the understanding of Bangkok's growth.
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Oguz, Hakan. "Modeling urban growth and land use/land cover change in the Houston Metropolitan Area from 2002 - 2030." Diss., Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2231.
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The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (Houston CMSA) has experienced rapid population growth during the past decades and is the only major US metropolitan area with no zoning regulations. We use SLEUTH, a spatially explicit cellular automata model, to simulate future (2002-2030) urban growth in the Houston metropolitan area, one of the fastest growing metropolises in the United States during the past decades. The model is calibrated with historical data for the period 1974-2002 that are extracted from a time series of satellite images. The dataset consists of four historical urban extents (1974, 1984, 1992, 2002), two land use layers (1992, 2002), five transportation layers (1974, 1984, 1990, 2002, 2025), slope layer, hillshade layer, and excluded layer. Future growth patterns are predicted based on growth coefficients derived during the calibration phase. After calibrating the model successfully, the spatial pattern of urban growth of the Houston CMSA for the period from 2002 to 2030 is predicted. Within SLEUTH, growth in the Houston CMSA is predominately "organic" with most growth occurring along the urban/rural fringe. Projected increases in urban area from 2002 to 2030 parallel projected increases in population growth within the Houston CMSA. We design three specific scenarios to simulate the spatial consequences of urban growth under different environmental conditions. The first scenario is to simulate the unmanaged growth with no restrictions. The second scenario is to project the moderate growth trend by taking into consideration environmental protection, specifically for agricultural areas, forests and wetlands. The last scenario is to simulate the managed growth with maximum environmental protection. Adjusting the level of protection for different land cover types was found to markedly affect the land use changes in the Houston CMSA. Without any protection on resource lands, Houston CMSA is estimated to lose 2,000 km2 of forest land by 2030, about 600 km2 of agricultural land, and approximately 400 km2 of wetland. Approximately half of all resource land could be saved by the third scenario, managed growth with maximum protection.
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Mhangara, Paidamwoyo. "Land use/cover change modelling and land degradation assessment in the Keiskamma catchment using remote sensing and GIS." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/1467.
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Land degradation in most communal parts of the Keiskamma catchment has reached alarming proportions. The Keiskamma catchment is particularly predisposed to severe land degradation associated with soil erosion, thicket degradation and deteriorating riparian vegetation. There is a close coupling between land use/cover dynamics and degradation trends witnessed in the catchment. Soil erosion is prevalent in most of the communal areas in the catchment. The principal aim of this study was to investigate land use/cover trends, model the spatial patterns of soil loss and predict future land use/cover scenarios as a means of assessing land degradation in the Keiskamma catchment. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery from 1972 to 2006 was used for land use/cover change analyses using object-oriented post-classification comparison. Fragmentation analysis was performed by computing and analyzing landscape metrics in the riparian and adjacent hillslope areas to determine the land cover structural changes that have occurred since 1972. The landscape function analysis was used to validate the current rangeland conditions in the communal areas and the former commercial farms. The current condition of the riparian zones and proximal hillslopes was assessed using the Rapid Appraisal of Riparian Condition and future land use/cover scenarios were simulated using the Markovcellular automata model. Spatial patterns of soil loss in the Keiskamma catchment were determined using the Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion Control (SATEEC), which is a GIS based RUSLE model that integrates sediment delivery ratios. Object oriented classification was used to map soil erosion surfaces and valley infill in ephemeral stream channels as a means of demonstrating the major sediment transfer processes operating in the Keiskamma catchment. The Mahalanobis distance method was used to compute the topographic thresholds for gully erosion. To understand the effect of soil characteristics in severe forms of erosion, laboratory analyses were undertaken to determine the physico-chemical soil properties. iv The temporal land use/cover analysis done using the post-classification change detection indicated that intact vegetation has undergone a significant decline from 1972 to 2006. The temporal changes within the intermediate years are characterized by cyclic transitions of decline and recovery of intact vegetation. An overall decline in intact vegetation cover, an increase in degraded vegetation and bare eroded soil was noted. Fragmentation analyses done in the communal villages of the central Keiskamma catchment indicated increasing vegetation fragmentation manifested by an increase in smaller and less connected vegetation patches, and a subsequent increase of bare and degraded soil patches which are much bigger and more connected. The Landscape Organisation Index revealed very low vegetation connectivity in the communal rangelands that have weak local traditional institutions. Fragmentation analyses in the riparian and proximal hillslopes revealed evidence of increasing vegetation fragmentation from 1972 to 2006. The Markov Cellular Automata simulation predicted a decline in intact vegetation and an increase in bare and degraded soil in 2019. The Keiskamma catchment was noted as experiencing high rates of soil loss that are above provincial and national averages. The classification of erosion features and valley infill showcased the vegetation enrichment in the ephemeral streams which is occurring at the expense of high soil losses from severe gully erosion on the hillslopes. This in turn has led to an inversion of grazing patterns within the catchment, such that grazing is now concentrated within the ephemeral stream channels. Soil chemical analyses revealed a high sodium content and low soluble salt concentration, which promote soil dispersion, piping and gully erosion. The presence of high amounts of illite-smectite in the catchment also accounts for the highly dispersive nature of the soil even at low SAR values. Significant amounts of swelling 2:1 silicate clays such as smectites cause cracking and contribute to the development of piping and gullying in the catchment. Given the worsening degradation trends in the communal areas, a systematic re-allocation of state land in sections of the catchment that belonged to the former commercial farms is recommended to alleviate anthropogenic pressure. Strengthening local institutions that effectively monitor and manage natural resources will be required in order to maintain v optimum flow regimes in rivers and curb thicket degradation. Measures to curb environmental degradation in the Keiskamma catchment should encompass suitable ecological interventions that are sensitive to the socio-economic challenges facing the people in communal areas.
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Dunn, Sarah M. "Modelling the hydrological effects of land use change in a large UK river basin." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.295531.
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Götzinger, Jens. "Distributed conceptual hydrological modelling - simulation of climate, land use change impact and uncertainty analysis." [S.l. : s.n.], 2007. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:93-opus-33499.
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Hävermark, Saga. "Modelling the effects of land use change on a peri-urban catchment in Portugal." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-279197.
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Societal developments are associated with land use change, and with urbanization in particular. Urbanization can influence hydrological processes by decreasing evapotranspiration and infiltration as well as by increasing streamflow, peak flow and overland flow. This causes higher risks of flooding. Although several studies have investigated the impacts of urbanization on streamflow over the last decades, less is known about how urbanization affects the hydrological processes in peri-urban areas characterized by a complex mosaic of different land uses. This study aimed to model the impact of land use change, or more specifically urbanization, on the hydrological responses of the small peri-urban Ribeira dos Covões catchment (6.2 km2) located in central Portugal. The catchment has undergone rapid land use change since the mid- 1950s associated with conversion of agricultural fields (decreased from 48 to 4%) into woodland and urban areas, which increased from 44 to 56% and from 8 to 40%, respectively. For the study, the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE was used. Parameters and data of climate, vegetation and soil types were used as input. There were also land use maps and daily streamflow values available for the hydrological years 2008/09 to 2012/13, which were used to calibrate and validate the model. The statistics from the calibration and validation both indicated that the model simulated the streamflow well. The model was designed to examine both how past land use change might have affected the streamflow, and to investigate the impacts on hydrology if the urban area was to be increased to cover 50% of the catchment. It was not only the importance of the urban cover’s size that was tested, but also the placement of additional urban areas. Three future scenarios were run, all with a 50% urban cover, but distributed differently within the catchment. The study did not indicate that an increase in urbanization leads to higher peak flow or streamflow. Neither could any decrease in infiltration be seen. All three scenarios however gave an increase in overland flow of approximately 10% and a decrease in evapotranspiration by 55%, regardless of where the urban areas were added. The reliability of the models can be enhanced by additional climate, soil and vegetation data. This would improve the results and make them more useful in decision making processes in the planning and management of new urban areas.<br>Samhällets ständiga utveckling medför förändringar i markanvändning. Utvecklingen och förändringarna är framför allt associerade med urbanisering som kan påverka ett avrinningsområdes hydrologiska processer genom att exempelvis reducera dess evapotranspiration och infiltration samt öka vattenföringen, högsta flödet och ytavrinningen. Det i sin tur ökar risken för översvämning. Trots att många studier har undersökt urbaniseringens inverkan på vattenföring de senaste decennierna saknas viss kunskap om dess påverkan på hydrologin i stadsnära avrinningsområden, kännetecknade av flera olika typer av markanvändning. Denna studie syftade till att modellera hur förändringar i markanvändning, eller mer specifikt urbanisering, påverkar hydrologin i det lilla stadsnära avrinningsområdet Ribeira dos Covões (6,2 km2) i centrala Portugal. Avrinningsområdet har genomgått snabba markanvändningsförändringar sedan mitten av 1950-talet i samband med en omvandling av åkrar (täckningsarean har minskat från 48 till 4 %) till skogsmark och urbaniserade områden, vilkas storlek har ökat från 44 till 56 % respektive 8 till 40 %. För att uppfylla syftet har den hydrologiska modellen MIKE SHE använts. Parametrar avseende klimat samt vegetations- och jordegenskaper användes som indata till modellen. Det fanns också tillgång till en markanvändningskarta över området samt dagliga flödesvärden mellan de hydrologiska åren 2008 och 2013. Dessa användes för att kalibrera och validera modellen. Statistiken för både kalibreringen och valideringen indikerade en fullt acceptabel modell. Modellen var avsedd att undersöka dels hur tidigare förändring i markanvändning kan ha påverkat vattenföringen, dels för att studera effekten på hydrologin om urbaniseringen fortgår tills dess täckning är 50 % av avrinningsområdet. Det var inte bara betydelsen av de urbana ytornas storlek som testades, utan även placeringen av dem. Tre framtidsscenarier togs fram, alla med en urban yta på 50 % fördelad olika inom avrinningsområdet. Studien indikerade inte att ytterligare urbanisering ökar vare sig flödet eller det högsta flödet. Inte heller gav de någon minskning av infiltration. Alla tre scenarierna gav emellertid en ökning av ytavrinningen med cirka 10 % och en minskning av evapotranspirationen med 55 %, oavsett placering av de urbana ytorna. Modellernas tillförlitlighet skulle kunna förbättras med hjälp av ytterligare klimat-, vegetations- och jordindata. Det skulle förbättra resultaten och göra dem användbara i beslutsfattanden vid planering och utveckling av nya urbana områden.
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Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina. "Modelling land-use and climate change impacts on hydrology : the Upper Ganges river basin." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/24809.
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This thesis explores the effects that large-scale land-use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change pose to the terrestrial water cycle, by developing a case study in the Upper Ganges (UG) river basin, in India. In an area experiencing rapid rates of LUCC and changes in irrigation practices, historic land-use maps are developed, based on satellite images, to investigate historical trends of LUCC. Future projection scenarios of LUCC for years up to 2035 are derived from Markov chain analysis. To explore the impacts of those changes in hydrology, the generated maps are used to force the Land Surface Model (LSM) JULES. JULES is found to be reasonably skilful in terms of its ability to reproduce observed streamflow. However, the results indicate that there is much room left for improved estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) fluxes, which JULES is found to over-predict. By dynamically coupling JULES with the crop model InfoCrop, the simulated ET fluxes are improved, compared to the original JULES model. The difference in mean annual ET between the two models (coupled and original) is approximately 150 mm/yr and indicates the potential error in ET flux estimations of an LSM without dynamic vegetation. The impact of LUCC and climate change on the hydrological response of the UG basin is quantified, by calculating variations in hydrological components (streamflow, ET and soil moisture) during the period 2000-2035. Severe increases in the high extremes of flows (+40% in the multi-model mean) are being projected for the nearby future (2030-2035). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change scenario, whilst climate change is the main driver of those changes. These results provide the necessary evidence-base to support regional land-use planning, advanced irrigation practices and develop future-proof water resource management strategies under a water-limited environment.
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Thomas, Amy R. C. "Modelling spatial variation and environmental impacts of land use change in the exploitation of land-based renewable bioenergy crops." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2014. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/52148/.
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Spatial factors are of particular importance to the sustainability of land based energy crops, due both to the need to minimise feedstock transport, and to the importance of cultivation site attributes in determining key environmental impacts. This study uses geographical information system (GIS) mapping to identify sites suitable for the cultivation of Miscanthus or short rotation coppiced (SRC) SRC willow for co-firing with coal or generation of combined heat and power (CHP). Modelling using an adapted version of DayCent was performed for typical sites to assess variation in yield, nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, evapotranspiration (ET) and change in soil organic carbon (SOC) according to soil properties, hydrologic regime and previous land use. Development of the DayCent model as part of this research gave improved simulation of the impacts of tillage on soil porosity, and resultant N2O emissions from soil, and improved simulation of growth of SRC willow following coppicing management, leading to improved yield predictions. For land use change from arable to perennial cultivation, increased SOC was simulated, along with reduced N2O emissions, particularly on soils prone to anoxia. However, in general, benefits of cultivation of Miscanthus and SRC willow for energy are maximised when the crops are grown at sites where high yields are achieved, and used to generate CHP, since this minimises the land area required per unit energy generated. Further model development work and additional field data for model verification are necessary for firmer conclusions on the change in net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions following land use change. Additionally, indirect land use change may negate perceived benefits, and locations are difficult to predict or identify in a complex global system. Given the magnitude of identified variations in yields and changes in N2O emissions, spatial variation in benefits of bioenergy cultivation should be a factor in decisions to provide economic support for cultivation. However, calculations suggest that emissions offset by replacing energy generation from fossil fuels may have greater impact on GHG savings per gigajoule (GJ) than cultivation site attributes. Since total energy conversion efficiency may be in the region of 30% for electricity-only generation and up to 90% for CHP generation, planning feedstock supply chains to maximise efficiency of feedstock end use is therefore beneficial.
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Zhang, Han. "Modelling the effects of land-use change on groundwater in the Nottinghamshire Sherwood sandstone aquifer." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.520434.
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Figueiredo, Eduardo Eneas de. "Scale effects and land use change impacts in sediment yield modelling in a semi-arid region of Brazil." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.388656.
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Huang, Shaochun. "Modelling of environmental change impacts on water resources and hydrological extremes in Germany." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2012. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2012/5974/.
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Water resources, in terms of quantity and quality, are significantly influenced by environmental changes, especially by climate and land use changes. The main objective of the present study is to project climate change impacts on the seasonal dynamics of water fluxes, spatial changes in water balance components as well as the future flood and low flow conditions in Germany. This study is based on the modeling results of the process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) driven by various regional climate scenarios on one hand. On the other hand, it is supported by statistical analysis on long-term trends of observed and simulated time series. In addition, this study evaluates the impacts of potential land use changes on water quality in terms of NO3-N load in selected sub-regions of the Elbe basin.
In the context of climate change, the actual evapotransipration is likely to increase in most parts of Germany, while total runoff generation may decrease in south and east regions in the scenario period 2051-2060. Water discharge in all six studied large rivers (Ems, Weser, Saale, Danube, Main and Neckar) would be 8 – 30% lower in summer and autumn compared to the reference period (1961 – 1990), and the strongest decline is expected for the Saale, Danube and Neckar. The 50-year low flow is likely to occur more frequently in western, southern and central Germany after 2061 as suggested by more than 80% of the model runs. The current low flow period (from August to September) may be extended until the late autumn at the end of this century. Higher winter flow is expected in all of these rivers, and the increase is most significant for the Ems (about 18%). No general pattern of changes in flood directions can be concluded according to the results driven by different RCMs, emission scenarios and multi-realizations.
An optimal agricultural land use and management are essential for the reduction in nutrient loads and improvement of water quality. In the Weiße Elster and Unstrut sub-basins (Elbe), an increase of 10% in the winter rape area can result in 12-19% more NO3-N load in rivers. In contrast, another energy plant, maize, has a moderate effect on the water environment. Mineral fertilizers have a much stronger effect on the NO3-N load than organic fertilizers. Cover crops, which play an important role in the reduction of nitrate losses from fields, should be maintained on cropland.
The uncertainty in estimating future high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remain high due to different RCM structures, emission scenarios and multi-realizations. In contrast, the projection of low flows under warmer climate conditions appears to be more pronounced and consistent. The largest source of uncertainty related to NO3-N modelling originates from the input data on the agricultural management.<br>Wasserressourcen werden in Quantität und Qualität von Veränderungen in der Umwelt, insbesondere von Änderungen des Klimas und der Landnutzung, in signifikantem Maße beeinflusst. In dieser Arbeit wurden die Auswirkungen von Klimavariabilität und Klimawandel auf die Wasserressourcen und Extremereignisse wie Hoch- und Niedrigwasser in Deutschland untersucht. Die Analyse erfolgte auf der einen Seite modellgestützt, wobei die Ergebnisse aus verschiedenen regionalen Klimamodellen durch ein ökohydrologisches Modell in Änderungen in den hydrologischen Prozessen transformiert wurden, zum anderen aber auch datengestützt, z.B. durch die statistische Interpretation von beobachteten und simulierten Zeitreihen. Zusätzlich wurden die Auswirkungen von Landnutzungsänderungen auf Umsatz von Stickstoff in der Landschaft und im Wasser untersucht, wobei dasselbe ökohydrologische Modell zum Einsatz kam.
Im Rahmen des Klimawandels wird zur Mitte dieses Jahrhunderts die aktuelle Evapotranspiration in den meisten Teilen Deutschlands mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit zunehmen. Die täglichen Abflussmengen der fünf größten Flussgebiete in Deutschland (Ems, Weser, Elbe, Obere Donau und Rhein) werden dieser Untersuchung zur Folge im Sommer und Herbst um 8%-30% geringer sein als in der Referenzperiode (1961-1990). 80% der Szenariensimulationen stimmen darin überein, dass die 50-jährigen Niedrigwasserereignisse zum Ende dieses Jahrhunderts mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit häufiger in den westlichen, den südlichen und den zentralen Teilen Deutschlands auftreten werden. Die gegenwärtige Niedrigwasserperiode (August-September) könnte sich zudem dann bis in den späten Herbst ausweiten. Für alle Flüsse werden höhere Winterabflüsse erwartet, wobei diese Zunahme für die Ems am stärksten ausfällt (ca. 18%). Mit größerer Unsicherheit sind dagegen die Aussagen zur Entwicklung der Hochwasser behaftet. Aus den Ergebnissen, die durch unterschiedliche regionale Klimamodelle und Szenarien getrieben wurden, kann jedoch kein allgemeingültiges Muster für die Änderungen der 50-jährigen Hochwässer ausgemacht werden.
Eine optimierte Landnutzung und ein optimiertes Landmanagement sind für die Reduzierung der NO3-Einträge in die Oberflächengewässer essentiell. In den Einzusgebieten der Weißen Elster und der Unstrut (Elbe) kann eine Zunahme von 10% in der Anbaufläche von Winterraps zu einer 12-19% höheren NO3 Fracht führen. Mais, eine weitere Energiepflanze, hat hingegen einen mäßigeren Effekt auf die Oberflächengewässer. Die Höhe der Gabe von mineralischen Düngern beeinflußt zudem in starkem Maße die Nitratbelastung von Flüssen. Zwischenfrüchte können den NO3-Austrag im Sommer zusätzlich erheblich verringern.
Insgesamt bleibt die Unsicherheit in der Vorhersage von Spitzenabflüssen und im Besonderen von Extrem-Hochwässern als Folge unterschiedlicher regionaler Klimamodelle, Emissionsszenarien und Realisationen sehr hoch. Im Gegensatz dazu erscheinen die Projektionen zu den Niedrigwasserereignissen unter wärmeren Bedingungen sehr viel deutlicher und einheitlicher. Die größte Unsicherheit in der Modellierung von NO3 dagegen sind die Eingangsdaten z.B. für das lokale landwirtschaftliche Management.
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Schweitzer, Christian Verfasser], Ralf [Akademischer Betreuer] [Seppelt, and Wolfgang [Akademischer Betreuer] Cramer. "Modelling land-use and land-cover change and related environmental impacts in Northern Mongolia / Christian Schweitzer. Betreuer: Ralf Seppelt ; Wolfgang Cramer." Halle, Saale : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1025303156/34.
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Blanco, González Víctor. "Modelling adaptation strategies for Swedish forestry under climate and global change." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/25380.
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Adaptation is necessary to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. These decisions are subject to experienced and expected impacts, and depend upon the temporal interactions of a range of individual and institutional actors. Knowledge of, and responses to, climate change are therefore very important if forestry is to cope with, or take advantage of, the effects of climate change over longer timescales. It is important to understand the role of human behaviour and decision-making processes in the study of complex socio-ecological systems and modelling is a method that can support experiments to advance this understanding. This study is based on the development of CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that allows the exploration of Swedish land-use dynamics and adaptation to climate change through scenario analysis. In CRAFTY-Sweden, forest and farmland owners make land use and management decisions according to their objectives, management preferences and capabilities. As a result of their management and location characteristics they are able to provide ecosystem services. To explore future change, quantitative scenarios were used that considered both socio-economic development pathways and climatic change. Simulations were run under the different scenarios for the period 2010-2100, for the whole of Sweden. Furthermore, because institutions (i.e. organisations) also influence socio-ecological systems through their actions and interactions between them and with land owners and the environment, a conceptual model of institutional actions applied to socio-ecological systems was developed. The application of this conceptual model was explored through a model of institutions that can act, interact and adapt to environmental change in attempting to affect ecosystem service provision within a simple forestry governance system. I found that forestry in the future will likely be unable to meet societal demands for forest services solely on the basis of autonomous adaptation. A northward expansion of agriculture and especially of forestry proved positive for both sectors to adapt to changing conditions, under several scenarios, given the substantial land availability and the improved environmental conditions for plant growth. Legacy effects of past land-use change can have a great impact on future land-use change and adaptation processes, especially in forestry. Also, greater competition for land may lead to shorter forest rotation times. Socio-economic change and land owner behavioural differences may have a larger impact on owner competitiveness, land-use change and ecosystem service provision than climate-driven changes in land productivity. Different owner objectives and behaviour resulted in different levels of ecosystem service provision. Also, particular forest types were differently suitable for adaptation depending on the sets of objectives under which they were managed. Owners implementing particular management strategies can be differently competitive under different future scenarios, and the suitability of such strategies for adaptation is not a static, inherent characteristic of a system. Instead, it evolves in response to changing contexts that include both the external global change drivers and the internal dynamics of agent interactions. Additionally, institutional conceptual models as presented here can support better understanding of the key institutional decision-making dynamics and their consequences, endogenously, flexibly across different socio-ecological systems. Finally, study limitations, future research and the policy relevance of findings are discussed.
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Qāsim, Muḥammad. "Modelling land use changes in Swat, Pakistan : spatial and temporal dynamics of land use change in Swat (1968-2007) : a Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.555847.
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Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan, with diverse biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The region is endowed with many fragile and fragmented ecosystems, where land use and land cover changes have accelerated processes with irreversible effects on ecosystems. The thesis aims to; 1) find evidence of land use and cover change in the context of very disparate accounts on the state of forest resources in Pakistan, and particularly in Swat; 2) analyze the drivers of change and model the impact of geophysical factors on land use change; and 3) to identify the socioeconomic driving foreces ofland use change and to reflect on governance and policy failures and discuss potential policy options for conserving forests given these trends. To achieve our aims we used remote sensing and GIS for temporal analysis of land use and land cover change for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007, and for analyzing the geophysical and socioeconomic driving forces behind these changes we used logistic regression, test statistics, household surveys and expert interviews. Based on remote sensing and GIS we could provide clear evidence for fragmentation and deforestation; which is contrary to official Pakistani sources. In high altitude ecosystem the forest area decreased by 30.5%, with 11.4% deforestation due to agricultural expansion; in the mid-elevation zone, agriculture expanded by 70.3% and forests decreased by 49.7%; and in the lower altitudes agriculture expansion was 129.9% consuming 31. 7% of the forest areas over the 40 years study period. Binomial logistic regression analysis of the geophysical factors showed that III the more vulnerable high altitude ecosystems, despite accessibility problems, agriculture expansion has been a significant factor mainly driven by off-season vegetable production. In the lower altitudes agriculture expansion on forested areas was mainly explained by proximity to main roads and markets. Similarly expansion of smallholder agriculture and built up areas in the three zones were explained by proximity to water sources, slope, aspect and distance to settlements. Overall, various degrees of population pressure combined with improved access to infrastructure and markets lead to various degrees of agricultural expansion and intensification as well as extension of built up land. This was combined with institutional shortcomings especially with regards to contested property rights and ineffectual governmental interference; For sustainable livelihood agricultural production could be enhanced through conservation of traditional crops diversity (instead of predominance of off-season vegetables) and scientific input enabling improvement in traditional soil conservation and fertility management to reduce the risks of agriculture abandonment on steep slopes in the long-term. Exploration of alternate resources of fuel and energy, coupled with strategic reforestation programmes can bea positive step to minimize forest degradation. Apart from that a carefully crafted reform program is required including the strengthening of property rights, provisions for communal management and market based incentives, depending on the social, economic, and ecological characteristics of the different zones under consideration. Only with such policies in place the current rapid rate of deforestation can be avoided and sustainable resource use be ensured.
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Götzinger, Jens [Verfasser]. "Distributed conceptual hydrological modelling : simulation of climate, land use change impact and uncertainty analysis / von Jens Götzinger." Stuttgart : Inst. für Wasserbau, 2007. http://d-nb.info/996792422/34.
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Huang, Yanping. "Modelling land use change and agricultural performance in post-reform China using remotely sensed data and GIS." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.264570.
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Rabb, Benjamin. "Integrated modelling of climate and land use change impacts on groundwater flooding risk in a Chalk catchment." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2010. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/54140/.
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From 2010 The Flood and Water Management Act has given the Environment Agency and local authorities in the United Kingdom a statutory requirement to manage flooding from groundwater. A robust, long-term groundwater flood risk assessment methodology was developed using the Pang/Lambourn catchment in West Berkshire as a case study. A recharge model based on a soil moisture budget was built in GIS and tested against observations. The timing and mechanism of flow in the vadose zone was also assessed using cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and borehole responses for a better understanding of recharge processes. Regional MODFLOW models were developed for saturated groundwater flow using input from the recharge model. This integrated model was then coupled with a Global Climate Model using a stochastic weather generator to downscale output to the catchment. An ensemble of high and low climate change scenarios suggests there will be between a 5.5% and 27% reduction in recharge over the coming century and mean groundwater levels will lower by up to 3.8%. Land use modification characterised by afforestation and urbanisation resulted in nuanced changes in the spatial distribution of recharge as well as a further mean reduction of 6.8% on top of the climate change impacts. Groundwater flood hazard maps were developed and integrated with a social vulnerability index to identify 1.7 km2 of the Pang/Lambourn at high risk. In the Pang catchment this represents around 1400 properties. Climate and land use change scenarios suggest however that the risk of groundwater flooding in the catchment will decrease considerably (25-98%) over the next century. This reduction in risk is likely to make mitigation through targeted land use modification unnecessary.
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Kigobe, Max. "Modelling the effects of land use change and climate variability on the hydrology of the upper Nile." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.555946.
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The River Nile is the second longest river in the world and its basin covers ten African countries including Uganda. In the light of growing human and industrial demand on its ecosystem, especially water resources, the need to support sustainable basin-wide resource management has risen over the recent past. Most economies in the Nile basin are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is strongly affected by climate. Therefore, the basin is vulnerable to a number of issues including land use change, climate change and climate variability. Other stress factors include rapid population growth, land degradation and the prevalence of human disease. These factors are likely to adversely impact on the basin ecosystem and agricultural productivity, which in turn affect the economic development in terms of food security, hydropower generation and provision of ecosystem services. It is imperative to conduct detailed hydrological assessment of the likely impact of land-use changes and climate variability on the hydrology of the Nile basin. This thesis therefore investigates the hydrological response to plausible climate and land use scenarios. This is carried out by testing climate and hydrological modelling tools for the Kyoga basin, within the Upper Nile. Climate modelling involved multi-site spatial and temporal modelling of rainfall in the Kyoga basin using stochastic tools under the Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) framework. Climate modelling results showed that the structure of the GLM could not represent adequately the variability of rainfall over Kyoga, however, it could represent the variability within designated climatic zones. Assuming independence of the stochastic variability between zones in the Kyoga basin, GLM models for the Kyoga basin were then applied as statistical downs ea ling tools to generate future precipitation sequences conditioned on the results from six general circulation model (GCM) outputs for future climate (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) using results from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the Fourth Assessment Report (SRES-AR4). With regard to climate change, warming of the basin resulted in a general increase in precipitation patterns and the results from the use of GLMs suggest that it is likely to have a relatively wetter December - February (DJF), March - May (MAM), September - November (SON) seasons and a much dryer June - August (JJA) season. Hydrological modelling involved the development of a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model using the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT), applied on a daily time-scale to investigate the uncertainty associated with precipitation and model parameter identification. The SWAT model was also used to assess the sensitivity of several water resources components to alternative/plausible climate and land use patterns in the Kyoga basin. Hypotheticalland use change scenarios showed that the water resource estimates in the Kyoga basin are sensitive to intensification of agriculture and less sensitive to increase in spatial coverage of grasslands and shrublands. A warmer climate is also associated with increase in potential evapotranspiration, soil water and internal renewable water resources in the Kyoga basin and stream flows at several locations in the basin. The results from this PhD work contribute towards the development of climate and hydrological modelling tools applicable to equatorial climates.
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Oglethorpe, David Richard. "Farm level land use and environmental management decisions : a modelling approach to the analysis of policy change." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.318518.
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Walker, Scott William. "Modelling land use change and nonpoint source pollution potential using remote sensing and geographic information system technology." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1990. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc798323/.
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In this study Geographic Information System (GIS) technology was integrated with remote sensing techniques in order to determine the potential for nonpoint source pollution in the Lake Palestine and Cedar Creek Reservoir watersheds of North Central Texas. The Universal Soil Loss Equation was used to determine soil erosion potential from the watersheds, and export coefficients were used to estimate nutrient loadings into the reservoirs.
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Siswanto, Shantosa Yudha. "Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia)." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/153152.
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[EN] Climate change has occurred in Indonesia, for example, increasing the surface air temperature, including in the Upper Citarum watershed. This phenomenon leads to a lack of water in the dry season, which lowers agriculture production and remains a great obstacle for agricultural activity. Meanwhile, human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed. This occurs due to the demands of the ever-increasing population growth in the region. As a result, rice field and forested areas have been sacrificed to compensate the urban increment. The general objective of this dissertation is to understand and analyze the impact of climate and LULC changes on the hydrological process and their relationship with historical and future changes by using spatially distributed modeling on the Upper Citarum tropical catchment. The distributed model TETIS has been implemented to obtain the results of past and future scenarios on the water and sediment cycles. Annual historical bathymetries in the reservoir were used to calibrate and validate the sediment sub-model involving Miller's density evolution and trap efficiency of Brune's equation. Climate change has been considered under RCP 45 and RCP 85 trajectories. Meanwhile, to overcome the LULC problem, historical and future LULCs have been studied. LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. The forecasted results of LCM model show, on one hand, a continuation in the expansion of urban areas at the expense of the contiguous rice fields. The results determined that deforestation and urbanization were the most influential factors for the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum Catchment. Thus, it decreases evapotranspiration, increases water yield by increasing all its components; overland flow, interflow and baseflow. The changes in LULC are currently producing and will produce in the future, a relatively small increment of erosion rates, increasing the area exceeds Tsl erosion. Sediment yield will increase in 2029 as the result of erosion increment. Other LULC scenarios such as conservation, government plan and natural vegetation scenarios are expected to have an increment in total evapotranspiration, the water yield is expected to decrease. Flood regime, erosion and sedimentation are reduced dramatically. Hence, it leads to a massive increment of reservoir and hydropower lifetime signed by a very long period of the lifetime. Climate change alters the magnitude of water balance and can be identified from the shift of infiltration, overland flow, interflow, baseflow and water yield. Those increments finally change the flood regime, catchment erosion. RCP 85 trajectory gives a bigger impact compared to RCP 45 trajectory on hydrological and sediment cycle. . LULC change results a bigger impact on water balance, flood regime, erosion and sedimientation. The combination of climate and LULC change give a bigger impact on the flows of water balance, erosion, flood, sedimentation and will be catastrophic for the hydropower operation of the Saguling Dam.<br>[ES] El cambio climático ha afectado a Indonesia, por ejemplo, incrementando la temperatura del aire en la superficie, incluso en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Este fenómeno conduce a la falta de agua en la estación seca, reduciendo la producción agrícola lo que es un gran obstáculo para su actividad. Además, la actividad humana ha producido cambios severos en LULC en la cuenca del Upper Citarum, Indonesia. Esto se debe al elevado crecimiento de la población en la región, por el que se han convertido campos de arroz y áreas boscosas en suelo urbano. De esta forma, el objetivo general de esta tesis es comprender y analizar el impacto de los cambios climáticos y LULC en el proceso hidrológico y su relación con los cambios históricos y futuros mediante el uso de modelos distribuidos espacialmente en la cuenca tropical del Upper Citarum. El modelo distribuido TETIS se ha implementado para obtener los resultados de escenarios pasados y futuros en los ciclos de agua y sedimentos. Se usaron batimetrías históricas anuales en el embalse para calibrar y validar el submodelo de sedimentos que involucra la evolución de la densidad de Miller y la eficiencia de retención de la ecuación de Brune. Con el fin de arrojar más luz sobre estos problemas, el escenario de cambio climático se ha implementado en base al modelo de cambio climático bajo las trayectorias RCP 45 y RCP 85. Además, para intentar resolver el problema LULC, también se ha implementado el LULC histórico y futuro. El modelo LCM se usó para pronosticar el LULC en 2029 y los resultados muestran, por un lado, una continuación en la expansión de las áreas urbanas a expensas de los arrozales contiguos. Los resultados determinaron que la deforestación y la urbanización fueron los factores más influyentes para la alteración de los procesos hidrológicos y sedimentológicos en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Por lo tanto, disminuye la evapotranspiración, aumenta la producción de agua al aumentar todos sus componentes; escorrentía, interflujo y flujo base. Los cambios en LULC están produciendo y producirán, un incremento relativamente pequeño de las tasas de erosión, aumentando el área excede la erosión de Tsl. La producción de sedimentos aumentará en 2029 como resultado del incremento de la erosión. Se espera que otros escenarios de LULC como la conservación, el plan gubernamental y los escenarios de vegetación natural tengan un incremento en la evapotranspiración total, y se espera que la producción de agua disminuya. El régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación se reducen drásticamente. Por lo tanto, habrá un incremento de la vida útil del embalse y la energía hidroeléctrica. El cambio climático altera la magnitud del equilibrio hídrico y puede identificarse a partir del cambio de infiltración, escorrentía, interflujo, flujo base y producción de agua. Esos incrementos finalmente cambian el régimen de inundación y erosión de la cuenca. La trayectoria RCP 85 tiene un mayor impacto en comparación con la trayectoria RCP 45 en el ciclo hidrológico y de sedimentos. El cambio de LULC tiene un mayor impacto en el balance hídrico, el régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación. La combinación del cambio climático y LULC tiene un mayor impacto en los flujos de equilibrio hídrico, erosión, inundación, sedimentación y será catastrófico para la operación hidroeléctrica de la presa Saguling.<br>[CA] El canvi climàtic ha afectat Indonèsia, per exemple, incrementant la temperatura de l'aire en la superfície, inclús en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Aquest fenomen conduïx a la falta d'aigua en l'estació seca, reduint la producció agrícola, el que és un gran obstacle per a la seua activitat. A més, l'activitat humana ha produït canvis severs en LULC en la conca de l'Upper Citarum, Indonèsia. Açò es deu a l'elevat creixement de la població en la regió, motiu pel qual s'han anat convertint camps d'arròs i àrees boscoses en sòl urbà. D'aquesta manera, l'objectiu general d'aquesta tesi és comprendre i analitzar l'impacte dels canvis climàtics i LULC en el procés hidrològic i la seua relació amb els canvis històrics i futurs per mitjà de l'ús de models distribuïts espacialment en la conca tropical de l'Upper Citarum. El model distribuït TETIS s'ha implementat per a obtindre els resultats d'escenaris passats i futurs en els cicles de l'aigua i sediments. Es van usar batimetries històriques anuals en l'embassament per a calibrar i validar el submodel de sediments que involucra l'evolució de la densitat de Miller i l'eficiència de retenció de l'equació de Brune. Amb la finalitat de donar més llum a aquests problemes, l'escenari de canvi climàtic s'ha implementat basant-se en el model de canvi climàtic davall les trajectòries RCP 45 i RCP 85. A més, per a intentar resoldre el problema LULC, també s'ha implementat el LULC històric i futur. El model LCM es va usar per a pronosticar el LULC en 2029 i els resultats mostren, d'una banda, una continuació en l'expansió de les àrees urbanes a costa dels arrossars contigus. Els resultats van determinar que la desforestació i la urbanització van ser els factors més influents per a l'alteració dels processos hidrològics i sedimentològics en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Per tant, disminuïx l'evapotranspiració, augmenta la producció d'aigua en augmentar tots els seus components; escorrentia, interflux i flux base. Els canvis en LULC estan produint i produiran, un increment relativament xicotet de les taxes d'erosió, augmentant l'àrea excedix l'erosió de Tsl. La producció de sediments augmentarà en 2029 com a resultat de l'increment de l'erosió. S'espera que altres escenaris de LULC com la conservació, el pla governamental i els escenaris de vegetació natural tinguen un increment en l'evapotranspiració total, i s'espera que la producció d'aigua disminuïsca. El règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació es reduïxen dràsticament. Per tant, hi haurà un increment de la vida útil de l'embassament i l'energia hidroelèctrica. El canvi climàtic altera la magnitud de l'equilibri hídric i pot identificar-se a partir del canvi d'infiltració, escorrentia, interflux, flux base i producció d'aigua. Eixos increments finalment canvien el règim d'inundació i erosió de la conca. La trajectòria RCP 85 té un major impacte en comparació amb la trajectòria RCP 45 en el cicle hidrològic i de sediments. El canvi de LULC té un major impacte en el balanç hídric, el règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació. La combinació del canvi climàtic i LULC té un major impacte en els fluxos d'equilibri hídric, erosió, inundació, sedimentació i serà catastròfic per a l'operació hidroelèctrica de la presa Saguling.<br>thank the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI), for granting me the opportunity to pursue PhD study and adventure in Europe. The authors are also thankful to the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00).<br>Siswanto, SY. (2020). Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia) [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/153152<br>TESIS
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Li, Y. "Assessment of the hydrological impacts of land use change in the Daning River Catchment, China using hydrological modelling." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2013. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1420496/.
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In order to effectively manage river basin systems, a full understanding of the effects of land use change on hydrological processes, as well as knowledge on spatial heterogeneity of surface runoff with associated catchment characteristics, is required. This thesis employed the SWAT2009 model and SUFI-2 tool to understand the hydrological response to land use change in the Daning River catchment, Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. Firstly, appropriate landscape representations for the SWAT-based hydrological modelling were examined. DEM spatial resolution, catchment delineation scale and HRU definition were identified so that the inputs uncertainty could be reduced to a minimal level. Secondly, a consistent underestimation of discharge using station-based climatic records disclosed there was insufficient precipitation due to the location of the rain gauge at relatively low altitude. Considering the orographic effects on precipitation, Daning hydrological models were well calibrated and validated with the sparse climate observations. The model prediction uncertainty was also quantified. Thirdly, using the calibrated hydrological models of the Daning River catchment, this study quantified the effects of land use change (1990 and 2004) on the hydrological processes in the whole basin and sub-catchment levels. In 1982-1993, the change of land use pattern from 1990 to 2004 resulted in an increase of surface runoff, whereas, in 1996-2007 reverting the land use from 2004 to 1990 caused a slight decrease of river flows. Increased forest cover decreased surface runoff at the sub-catchment level. A concurrent increase of agricultural land, which brought about more surface runoff, weakened the forest‘s ecological function of water retention at the catchment scale. This thesis highlights that the strategy of land use exploration for human use along with the afforestation is not always effective in ecological protection. With the changing land use in future, composition of forests and agricultural land is a significant element being considered.
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Acosta, Navarro Juan Camilo. "Anthropogenic influence on climate through changes in aerosol emissions from air pollution and land use change." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för miljövetenskap och analytisk kemi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-137077.
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Particulate matter suspended in air (i.e. aerosol particles) exerts a substantial influence on the climate of our planet and is responsible for causing severe public health problems in many regions across the globe. Human activities have altered the natural and anthropogenic emissions of aerosol particles through direct emissions or indirectly by modifying natural sources. The climate effects of the latter have been largely overlooked. Humans have dramatically altered the land surface of the planet causing changes in natural aerosol emissions from vegetated areas. Regulation on anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions have the potential to affect the climate on regional to global scales. Furthermore, the regional climate effects of aerosol particles could potentially be very different than the ones caused by other climate forcers (e.g. well mixed greenhouse gases). The main objective of this work was to investigate the climatic effects of land use and air pollution via aerosol changes. Using numerical model simulations it was found that land use changes in the past millennium have likely caused a positive radiative forcing via aerosol climate interactions. The forcing is an order of magnitude smaller and has an opposite sign than the radiative forcing caused by direct aerosol emissions changes from other human activities. The results also indicate that future reductions of fossil fuel aerosols via air quality regulations may lead to an additional warming of the planet by mid-21st century and could also cause an important Arctic amplification of the warming. In addition, the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and the Asian monsoon appear to be sensitive to aerosol emission reductions from air quality regulations. For these reasons, climate mitigation policies should take into consideration aerosol air pollution, which has not received sufficient attention in the past.
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Beran, Eugene. "Flood modelling and predicting the effects of land use change on the flood hydrology of mountainous catchments in New Zealand using TopNet." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil and Natural Resources, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/7701.
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The management of New Zealand’s freshwater resources has come under increasing pressure from different industrial and environmental stakeholders. Land use change and the pressure it can put on water resources has been a significant issue regarding resource management in New Zealand. A significant mechanism driving land use change has been the growth of forestry, dairy farming, and other agricultural industries. Improvements in agricultural and forestry science and irrigation techniques have allowed new, previously less arable areas of New Zealand to be subject to land use change, such as the conversion of tussock grassland to pasture in steep, mountainous regions in the South Island. Studies regarding the effects of land use change in such catchments, especially with focus on flood hydrology, appear to be limited, despite the importance of managing catchment headwaters to minimise flood risk downstream.
The TopNet model was used in this research project to evaluate the potential effects of land use change on flood hydrology in mountain catchments. It is a semi-distributed continuous rainfall-runoff model developed by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). It has been widely used in New Zealand, and applications have included modelling water yield and the effect of climate change in catchment networks. However, it was not developed specifically for predicting flood flows. Hence, testing the model for flood peak prediction in mountainous catchments was also performed, and may show that TopNet can be a useful tool in resource management in New Zealand.
The Ahuriri and Pelorus River catchments were used in this investigation. Both are steep catchments located in the South Island. The Ahuriri River catchment, in the Waitaki Basin on the eastern side of the Southern Alps, is a semi-arid catchment dominated by tussock grassland. The surrounding catchments are heavily influenced by infrastructure for hydroelectric power (HEP) generation and more recently irrigation for dairy farming. The Pelorus River catchment is located at the northern end of the South Island. It is primarily covered in native forest, but adjacent catchments are subject to agricultural and forestry development.
The ability of the TopNet model for each catchment to predict flood flows were tested using a selection of historical flood events. Rainfall input to the model was at a daily timestep from the virtual climate station network (VCSN), and the method of disaggregating the daily estimate into an hourly rainfall series to be used by the model was found to have a significant influence on flood prediction. Where an accurate historical rainfall record was provided from a rainfall gauge station within the catchments, the disaggregation of the daily rainfall estimate based on the station data produced a significantly more accurate flood prediction when compared to predictions made using a stochastic disaggregation of the daily rainfall estimate.
The TopNet models were modified to reflect land use change scenarios: the conversion of tussock grassland to pasture and the afforestation of tussock in the Ahuriri River catchment, and the conversion of forested land to pasture and the harvest of plantation forestry in the Pelorus River catchment. Following a past study into modelling the effects of land use change using TopNet, three key model parameters were modified to reflect each land use scenario: saturated hydraulic conductivity KS, canopy storage capacity, and the canopy enhancement factor. Past studies suggested a wide range of suitable values for KS, although also acknowledged that KS depends heavily on the specific catchment characteristics. A sensitivity analysis showed that KS had a significant influence on flood peak prediction in TopNet. It is recommended that further investigation be conducted into suitable values for KS.
TopNet appeared to predict the effect of land use change on flood magnitude in mountainous catchments conservatively. Past studies of land use change suggested that the effect on flood flows should be significant, whereas TopNet generally predicted small changes in flood peaks for the scenarios in each catchment. However, this may suggest that the topography, geology, and soil properties of steep catchments are more important to flood hydrology than land cover. Further investigation into the effect of such catchment characteristics is recommended. Nevertheless, TopNet was shown to have the potential to be a useful tool for evaluating and managing the effects of land use change on the flood hydrology of mountainous catchments in New Zealand.
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Levers, Christian. "Understanding spatial patterns of land-system change in Europe." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17485.
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Die Nutzung von terrestrischen Ökosystemen zur Befriedigung der Grundbedürfnisse der Menschheit hat tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf das Erdsystem und führte zur Ausprägung von anthropogen dominierten Landsystemen. Diese sind von hoher Komplexität, da sie aus einer Vielzahl von unterschiedlichsten Einflussfaktoren angetriebenen Landnutzungsveränderungen hervorgegangen sind. Aktuelle Forderungen nach einer nachhaltigen zukünftigen Landnutzung erfordern ein fundiertes und integratives Verständnis dieser Komplexität. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist es, ein besseres Verständnis der raum-zeitlichen Muster und Determinanten des Landsystemwandels, insbesondere der Landnutzungsintensität, in Europa zwischen 1990 und 2010 zu erlangen. Europa ist ein interessantes Studiengebiet, da es jüngst starke Landnutzungsveränderungen erlebte und seine Heterogenität zu einer Vielfalt von Landsystemen und Landsystemveränderungen führte. Das Ziel der Arbeit wurde durch (i) die Kartierung von Intensitätsmustern und deren Veränderungen in Forst- und Agrarsystemen sowie der Ermittlung der dafür einflussreichsten räumlichen Determinanten und (ii) die Kartierung und Charakterisierung archetypischer Muster und Entwicklungsverläufe von Landsystemen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigten einen deutlichen Ost-West-Unterschied in Landsystemmustern und -veränderungen in Europa, mit intensiv genutzten und intensivierenden Regionen vor allem in Westeuropa. Dennoch wurde Europa vor allem durch relativ stabile Landsystemmuster gekennzeichnet und (De-)Intensivierungstrends waren nur von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Intensitätsmuster und -veränderungen waren stark an Standortbedingungen gebunden, vor allem an edaphische, klimatische, und länderspezifische Besonderheiten. Diese Arbeit erweitert das Verständnis des Landsystemwandels in Europa und kann zur Entwicklung wissenschaftlicher und politikbezogener Maßnahmen sowie zur Erreichung einer nachhaltigeren Landnutzung in Europa beitragen.<br>The utilisation of terrestrial ecosystems to satisfy the basic needs of humankind has profound impacts on the Earth System and led to the development of human-dominated land systems. These are substantially complex as they evolved from a multitude of land-change pathways driven by a variety of influential factors. Current calls for a more sustainable future land-use require a sound and integrative understanding of this complexity. The main goal of this thesis is to better understand the spatio-temporal patterns and the determinants of land-system change in Europe between 1990 and 2010, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Europe serves as an interesting study region as it recently experienced a period of marked land-use change, and since its large environmental, political, and socio-economic heterogeneity resulted in a diversity of land systems and land-change pathways. Land-system changes in Europe were examined by (i) mapping patterns and changes in forestry and agricultural intensity and identifying the most influential spatial determinants related to these changes, and (ii) mapping and characterising archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems considering both land-use extent and intensity indicators. Results revealed a distinct east-west divide in Europe’s land-system patterns and change trajectories, with intensively used and intensifying regions particularly located in Western Europe. However, Europe was mainly characterised by relatively stable land-systems patterns with (de-) intensification trends being only of minor importance. Land-use intensity levels and changes were strongly related to site conditions, especially with regard to soil and climate, as well as to country-specific characteristics. By fostering the understanding of land-system change, this thesis has the potential to contribute to scientific and policy-related actions that address current efforts to guide future land systems in Europe to a more sustainable use.
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Huber, García Verena [Verfasser], and Ralf [Akademischer Betreuer] Ludwig. "Modelling integrated scenarios of land use change and water management in two Mediterranean river basins / Verena Huber García ; Betreuer: Ralf Ludwig." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2020. http://d-nb.info/1215499825/34.
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Lohmann, Dirk. "Sustainable management of semi-arid African savannas under environmental and political change." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2012. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6506/.
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Drylands cover about 40% of the earth’s land surface and provide the basis for the livelihoods of 38% of the global human population. Worldwide, these ecosystems are prone to heavy degradation. Increasing levels of dryland degradation result a strong decline of ecosystem services. In addition, in highly variable semi-arid environments changing future environmental conditions will potentially have severe consequences for productivity and ecosystem dynamics. Hence, global efforts have to be made to understand the particular causes and consequences of dryland degradation and to promote sustainable management options for semi-arid and arid ecosystems in a changing world.
Here I particularly address the problem of semi-arid savanna degradation, which mostly occurs in form of woody plant encroachment. At this, I aim at finding viable sustainable management strategies and improving the general understanding of semi-arid savanna vegetation dynamics under conditions of extensive livestock production. Moreover, the influence of external forces, i.e. environmental change and land reform, on the use of savanna vegetation and on the ecosystem response to this land use is assessed. Based on this I identify conditions and strategies that facilitate a sustainable use of semi-arid savanna rangelands in a changing world.
I extended an eco-hydrological model to simulate rangeland vegetation dynamics for a typical semi-arid savanna in eastern Namibia. In particular, I identified the response of semi-arid savanna vegetation to different land use strategies (including fire management) also with regard to different predicted precipitation, temperature and CO2 regimes.
Not only environmental but also economic and political constraints like e.g. land reform programmes are shaping rangeland management strategies. Hence, I aimed at understanding the effects of the ongoing process of land reform in southern Africa on land use and the semi-arid savanna vegetation. Therefore, I developed and implemented an agent-based ecological-economic modelling tool for interactive role plays with land users. This tool was applied in an interdisciplinary empirical study to identify general patterns of management decisions and the between-farm cooperation of land reform beneficiaries in eastern Namibia.
The eco-hydrological simulations revealed that the future dynamics of semi-arid savanna vegetation strongly depend on the respective climate change scenario. In particular, I found that the capacity of the system to sustain domestic livestock production will strongly depend on changes in the amount and temporal distribution of precipitation. In addition, my simulations revealed that shrub encroachment will become less likely under future climatic conditions although positive effects of CO2 on woody plant growth and transpiration have been considered. While earlier studies predicted a further increase in shrub encroachment due to increased levels of atmospheric CO2, my contrary finding is based on the negative impacts of temperature increase on the drought sensitive seedling germination and establishment of woody plant species.
Further simulation experiments revealed that prescribed fires are an efficient tool for semi-arid rangeland management, since they suppress woody plant seedling establishment. The strategies tested have increased the long term productivity of the savanna in terms of livestock production and decreased the risk for shrub encroachment (i.e. savanna degradation). This finding refutes the views promoted by existing studies, which state that fires are of minor importance for the vegetation dynamics of semi-arid and arid savannas. Again, the difference in predictions is related to the bottleneck at the seedling establishment stage of woody plants, which has not been sufficiently considered in earlier studies.
The ecological-economic role plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries showed that the farmers made their decisions with regard to herd size adjustments according to economic but not according to environmental variables. Hence, they do not manage opportunistically by tracking grass biomass availability but rather apply conservative management strategies with low stocking rates. This implies that under the given circumstances the management of these farmers will not per se cause (or further worsen) the problem of savanna degradation and shrub encroachment due to overgrazing. However, as my results indicate that this management strategy is rather based on high financial pressure, it is not an indicator for successful rangeland management. Rather, farmers struggle hard to make any positive revenue from their farming business and the success of the Namibian land reform is currently disputable. The role-plays also revealed that cooperation between farmers is difficult even though obligatory due to the often small farm sizes. I thus propose that cooperation needs to be facilitated to improve the success of land reform beneficiaries.<br>Semiaride (halbtrockene) Savannen bedecken große Teile der Erdoberfläche und sichern die Lebensgrundlage von vielen Millionen Menschen. Die häufigste Form der Landnutzung in diesen Trockengebieten ist die Produktion von Vieh in extensiver Weidelandbewirtschaftung. In Folge klimatischer Veränderungen und als Konsequenz aus der teils intensiven Beweidung dieser Trockengebiete kommt es häufig zur Degradierung derselben in Form einer Zunahme von ‚unerwünschter‘ holziger Vegetation auf Kosten von futterverwertbaren Gräsern. Dieser als Verbuschung bezeichnete Prozess hat schwere negative Auswirkungen auf die betroffenen Ökosysteme und ist die Ursache für einen zunehmenden Rückgang der ökonomischen Leistungsfähigkeit der betroffenen Betriebe.
In meiner Dissertation befasse ich mich mit den Auswirkungen von Klimawandel und politischen Veränderungen auf die Savannenvegetation im südlichen Afrika und auf die Möglichkeiten für die Nutzung dieser Ökosysteme in Form von Viehwirtschaft. Hierbei möchte ich sowohl das allgemeine Verständnis der ökologischen Zusammenhänge verbessern, als auch Strategien für die nachhaltige Nutzung der Savannen identifizieren und bewerten.
Da nicht nur ökologische, sondern auch ökonomische und politische Einflussfaktoren, wie zum Beispiel die umfangreichen Landumverteilungen im Rahmen der Bodenreform im südlichen Afrika auf die tatsächliche Landnutzung wirken, habe ich im Rahmen der Dissertation zudem untersucht, nach welchen Umwelt und Kapitalvariablen sich die Farmer, welche Ihr Land im Rahmen der Bodenreform zugeteilt bekommen haben, bei Ihren Entscheidungen richten.
Methodisch verwende ich verschiedene Simulationsmodelle, welche zur Untersuchung der langfristigen Veränderungen von verschiedensten Szenarien (Klimawandel, Landnutzung) geeignet sind. Hierbei habe ich teilweise bestehende Modelle angepasst, aber auch ein neues Modell, welches zur Befragung von Farmern in Namibia verwendet wurde, entwickelt.
Meine Dissertation führt im Wesentlichen zu vier Erkenntnissen: Erstens, zeigen meine Ergebnisse, welche große Bedeutung die spezifischen ökologischen Eigenschaften der Bäume und Sträucher in semiariden Savannen für die Vorhersage der Entwicklung dieser Systeme unter Klimawandel hat. Hierbei zeigte sich, dass insbesondere die Sensitivität der Keimlinge gegenüber Trockenheit und Feuer eine entscheidende Rolle spielt. Daraus folgt die zweite wesentliche Erkenntnis: Feuer eignet sich in herausragender Weise, um halbtrockene Savannen vor der Verbuschung zu bewahren. Drittens haben die Rollenspiele mit Farmern in Namibia gezeigt, dass deren Entscheidungen im Wesentlichen von finanziellen Schwierigkeiten und nicht von Umwelteinflüssen getrieben werden. Dennoch zeigten meine Ergebnisse, dass diese Farmer mit Ihrem derzeitigen Verhalten wahrscheinlich nicht zur weiteren Degradierung der Savannenvegetation beitragen. Die vierte, und mit am bedeutendste Erkenntnis aus meiner Arbeit ist, dass konservative Beweidungsstrategien mit geringen und konstanten Viehdichten notwendig sind um semiaride Savannen dauerhaft in ökologisch und ökonomisch nachhaltiger Weise zu Nutzen.
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Simonit, Silvip. "Ecological-economic modelling and implications of land use change and wetlands extent on freshwater fisheries : the case of Lake Victoria (East Africa)." Thesis, University of York, 2007. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/9948/.
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Watershed degradation and the conversion of wetlands to alternative uses affect water quality, having profound implications for the freshwater ecosystem and fisheries of Lake Victoria. Through dynamic simulations using the Ecopath approach we show that eutrophication may explain the sudden upsurge of the introduced Nile perch during the 1980s. During these years an important trigger of change was an abrupt shift in primary productivity due to an external shock, probably related to an El Nino-ENSO event. The Nile perch population explosion during the 1980s caused a profound transformation ofthe fishing industry leading to a dramatic increase in fishing effort. Our equilibrium analysis from the base values of an Ecopath mo~l for year 1989 depicts an overfishing situation. To quantify the combined effect of eutrophication and fishing effort on the-aggregate fish stock and fishery we specify and estimate a biomass dynamics model, which embeds a measure of phytoplankton biomass as an environmental variable. We found that in a eutrophic state, which for the Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria was above an estimated chlorophyll-a concentration threshold of 17.11 mg m-3 , a further increase in phytoplankton biomass would cause a decrease in aggregate fish stock biomass and landings respectively. We then model the relation between land use change and water quality, considering the nutrient retention function of wetlands. First, we identify catchment-based indicators, in particular price indicators and wetland extent, which may anticipate changes in ,. environmental variables driving stock assessment models. We then study both nutrient loading and wetland reclamation externalities to the fishery sector, focusing on the Yala swamp, one of the largest wetlands in the Kenyan basin of Lake Victoria. Finally we propose a spatially distributed land use tax as policy instrument for reaching the desired objective of changing farmers' behaviour and maximising the total economic benefit to society.
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Pustilnik, Nataliia. "Investigating future land use scenarios: consequences for food production and grassland preservation in the steppe biome, Orenburg province of Southwestern Russia." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Stockholm Resilience Centre, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-187083.
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Many land systems experience massive ecological pressure due to ongoing land use changes for the increasing demand for food, but also need to sustain essential ecosystem services. Computer-based model scenarios help to anticipate the consequences of different socio-economic future transition pathways for humans and nature and evaluate trade-offs between various demands on land. In many grassland ecosystems, the processes of agricultural abandonment in less attractive regions coexist with agricultural intensification in others. At the same time, the ecological value of natural grassland is rarely considered in decision making. By using the CLUMondo land use modelling framework I mapped the future composition of the land system of Orenburg province under five socio-economic scenarios with different ranges of food production intensification. The outcomes allowed me to identify hotspot areas for arable land expansion, grassland restoration, and agricultural abandonment. Most agricultural expansion is prevalent in three scenarios with high ambition for food production, and, without active policy interventions, some natural grassland areas in northern parts of the province are likely to be converted to cropland. In a scenario with low demand for food production, large areas in southern parts could be abandoned creating good opportunities for grassland restoration on former cropland, but possibly having negative socio-economic consequences, such as people’s migration to northern parts of the province. In a scenario with lesser ambition for crop production, but an increase in meat production, agricultural abandonment is less widespread and will even include some additional conversion of cropland to pasture. With appropriate policies aimed at supporting sustainable grazing practices (together with favourable global socio-economic conditions), such scenario can provide an opportunity for satisfying demands for food, providing livelihoods, and ensuring the flow of ecosystem services by grassland ecosystems.
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Muli, Cosmus. "Modelling the Effects of Deforestation on Stream Flows in Arror River Basin-Kenya." Thesis, Linköping University, Linköping University, Department of Water and Environmental Studies, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-8275.
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<p>Abstract.</p><p>Like other developing countries, forest conversion to agricultural land has been a common practice in Kenya for the last four decades. Apart from illegal logging, the main cause is the growing population. For most developing countries where majority rely on agriculture for food production, conversion of forests into agricultural land is likely to occur. Kenya is one among such countries and is where the study basin is located. Knowledge of hydrological studies is crucial for proper planning and decision making of limited water resources in river basins. Even in regions where data is limited, changes in land use is a concern to many basin communities over the globe including Arror inhabitants since it has an impact on stream flows. Despite Arror downstream communities’ claims on reducing river flows, scientific proof on this is lacking. Such kind of belief/claim can result to conflicts (Downstream vs. Upstream water users). The main objective of this thesis was therefore to determine the effect of land use changes on Arror basin hydrology, focusing on the impact of deforestation since it has been the main land use change for the last four decades. The overall intention of the study is to verify the downstream basin’s inhabitant’s hypothetical thinking and also create an information foundation base for other future studies in the basin. Based on the lessons learned in this study, several recommendations have been highlighted, including land satellite rainfall data to augment the rainfall data obtained from the relatively sparse rain gauge network in the basin.</p>
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Hattermann, Fred Fokko. "Integrated modelling of Global Change impacts in the German Elbe River Basin." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2005. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2005/605/.
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The scope of this study is to investigate the environmental change in the German part of the Elbe river basin, whereby the focus is on two water related problems: having too little water and having water of poor quality.
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The Elbe region is representative of humid to semi-humid landscapes in central Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields, especially in the loess areas, where the annual precipitation is lower than 500 mm. It is most likely that water quantity problems will accelerate in future, because both the observed and the projected climate trend show an increase in temperature and a decrease in annual precipitation, especially in the summer. Another problem is nutrient pollution of rivers and lakes. In the early 1990s, the Elbe was one of the most heavily polluted rivers in Europe. Even though nutrient emissions from point sources have notably decreased in the basin due to reduction of industrial sources and introduction of new and improved sewage treatment facilities, the diffuse sources of pollution are still not sufficiently controlled.
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The investigations have been done using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which has been embedded in a model framework of climate and agro-economic models. A global scenario of climate and agro-economic change has been regionalized to generate transient climate forcing data and land use boundary conditions for the model. The model was used to transform the climate and land use changes into altered evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, crop yields and river discharge, and to investigate the development of water quality in the river basin. Particular emphasis was given to assessing the significance of the impacts on the hydrology, taking into account in the analysis the inherent uncertainty of the regional climate change as well as the uncertainty in the results of the model.
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The average trend of the regional climate change scenario indicates a decrease in mean annual precipitation up to 2055 of about 1.5 %, but with high uncertainty (covering the range from -15.3 % to +14.8 %), and a less uncertain increase in temperature of approximately 1.4 K. The relatively small change in precipitation in conjunction with the change in temperature leads to severe impacts on groundwater recharge and river flow. Increasing temperature induces longer vegetation periods, and the seasonality of the flow regime changes towards longer low flow spells in summer. As a results the water availability will decrease on average of the scenario simulations by approximately 15 %. The increase in temperatures will improve the growth conditions for temperature limited crops like maize. The uncertainty of the climate trend is particularly high in regions where the change is the highest.
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The simulation results for the Nuthe subbasin of the Elbe indicate that retention processes in groundwater, wetlands and riparian zones have a high potential to reduce the nitrate concentrations of rivers and lakes in the basin, because they are located at the interface between catchment area and surface water bodies, where they are controlling the diffuse nutrient inputs. The relatively high retention of nitrate in the Nuthe basin is due to the long residence time of water in the subsurface (about 40 years), with good conditions for denitrification, and due to nitrate retention and plant uptake in wetlands and riparian zones.
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The concluding result of the study is that the natural environment and communities in parts of Central Europe will have considerably lower water resources under scenario conditions. The water quality will improve, but due to the long residence time of water and nutrients in the subsurface, this improvement will be slower in areas where the conditions for nutrient turn-over in the subsurface are poor.<br>Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Untersuchung der Auswirkungen des Globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im deutschen Teil des Elbeeinzugsgebietes. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf Wassermengen- und Wasserqualitätsproblemen.
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Die Elbe liegt im Zentrum Europas im Übergangsbereich zwischen ozeanischen und kontinentalen Klimaten, wo die Wasserverfügbarkeit in den Sommermonaten den limitierenden Faktor für das Pflanzenwachstum und die landwirtschaftlichen Erträge bildet. Dies gilt insbesondere für die Lössgebiete im Lee des Harzes, wo die jährlichen Niederschläge unter 500 mm liegen. Es ist sehr wahrscheinlich, dass sich die Wassermengenprobleme in Zukunft noch verstärken werden, denn sowohl das beobachtete als auch das für die Zukunft projizierte Klima in der Region zeigen höhere Temperaturen und fallende Niederschläge, besonders im Sommer. Ein weiteres Problem ist die hohe Nährstoffbelastung der Flüsse und Seen im Elbeeinzugsgebiet. Anfang der neunziger Jahre war die Elbe eine der am stärksten belasteten Flüsse in Europa. Obwohl die Einträge besonders aus Punktquellen durch den Rückgang der Industrie und den Bau von neuen Kläranlagen seitdem gefallen sind, gelangen trotzdem noch große Nährstoffmengen aus diffusen Quellen in die Gewässer.
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Die Untersuchungen wurden unter Anwendung des ökohydrologischen Modells SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) durchgeführt, welches über Schnittstellen mit Klimamodellen und agroökonomischen Modellen verbunden wurde. Ein globales Szenario des Klimawandels und des landwirtschaftlichen Wandels wurde regionalisiert, um so die geänderten Randbedingungen für den Szenarienzeitraum zu erhalten. Simulationen mit SWIM dienten dann dazu, die geänderten Randbedingungen in Änderungen im Wasserhaushalt und in den landwirtschaftlichen Erträgen zu transformieren. Außerdem wurde das Langzeitverhalten von Nährstoffen im Untersuchungsgebiet modelliert. Besonderer Wert wurde dabei darauf gelegt, die Unsicherheit der Szenarienergebnisse zu quantifizieren.
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Der mittlere Szenarientrend zeigt eine Reduzierung der mittleren jährlichen Niederschläge bis zum Jahre 2055 um ungefähr 1.5 %, wobei die Ergebnisse mit einer großen Unsicherheit behaftet sind: die Spannweite der Niederschläge in den Szenarienrealisationen liegt zwischen -15.3 % und +14.8 %. Die Erwärmung unter Szenarienbedingungen mit ungefähr 1.4 K ist weniger unsicher. Diese relativ geringen Änderungen habe starke Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt im Elbegebiet: durch die steigenden Temperaturen wird die Vegetationszeit verlängert, und die Niedrigabflussperiode im Sommer wird sich in den Herbst ausdehnen. Insgesamt wird unter dem mittleren Szenarientrend die Wasserverfügbarkeit um ca. 15 % abnehmen. Außerdem werden sich durch die steigenden Temperaturen die Anbaubedingungen für wärmeliebende Ackerfrüchte in der Landwirtschaft verbessern. Die Unsicherheit des Klimatrends ist dort am größten, wo auch die lokalen Änderungen am größten sind.
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Die Simulationsergebnisse für das Nuthe-Teileinzugsgebiet der Elbe zeigen, das Retentionsprozesse im Untergrund und in den Feucht- und Auengebieten einen starken Einfluss auf die Wasserqualität und die Nitratkonzentration der Oberflächengewässer haben, da sie durch ihre Lage im Einzugsgebiet eine Schnittstelle zwischen dem umliegenden Einzugsgebiet und den Flüssen und Seen bilden. Die relativ hohe Umsetzung von Nitrat im Einzugsgebiet der Nuthe kann dadurch erklärt werden, dass Nitrat eine relativ lange Aufenthaltszeit im Grundwasser (im Mittel 40 Jahre) mit einer hohen Nitratumsetzungsrate hat, und durch die guten Denitrifizierungsbedingungen in den Feucht- und Auengebieten. Dazu kommt noch, dass große Nitratmengen durch die Pflanzen in den Feuchtgebieten aus dem Grundwasser aufgenommen werden.
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Zusammenfassend kann man sagen, das sich die Ökosysteme und die Gesellschaft im Elbeeinzugsgebiet unter Szenarienbedingungen auf niedrigere Wasserverfügbarkeit einstellen müssen. Die Wasserqualität wird sich grundsätzlich zwar weiter verbessern, aber aufgrund der langen Verweilzeit der Nährstoffe im Grundwasser wird dies insbesondere in den Teileinzugsgebieten, in denen die geochemischen Bedingungen für einen hohen Nährstoffumsatz nicht gegeben sind, noch relativ lange dauern.
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Gädeke, Anne [Verfasser], and Uwe [Akademischer Betreuer] Grünewald. "Climate and land use change impacts on water resources in the Lusatian river catchments (Germany) - Analysis and assessment considering modelling uncertainties / Anne Gädeke ; Betreuer: Uwe Grünewald." Cottbus : BTU Cottbus - Senftenberg, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1114283320/34.
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Heubes, Jonathan [Verfasser], Rüdiger Akademischer Betreuer] Wittig, and Georg [Akademischer Betreuer] [Zizka. "Modelling the impact of future climate and land use change on vegetation patterns, plant diversity and provisioning ecosystem services in West Africa / Jonathan Heubes. Gutachter: Rüdiger Wittig ; Georg Zizka." Frankfurt am Main : Univ.-Bibliothek Frankfurt am Main, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1044093838/34.
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Nguyen, Thanh Thi [Verfasser], and Georg [Akademischer Betreuer] Cadisch. "Land use change and its impact on soil properties using remote sensing, farmer decision rules and modelling in rural regions of Northern Vietnam / Thanh Thi Nguyen ; Betreuer: Georg Cadisch." Hohenheim : Kommunikations-, Informations- und Medienzentrum der Universität Hohenheim, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1180492188/34.
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Gueye, Kinne. "Revisiting patterns and processes of forest cover change in the tropics : a case study from southeast Mexico." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/277491.
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Vast progress has been made in detecting rates of tropical deforestation, yet the relationship between visible patterns of forest change, multi-scalar human processes and the underlying drivers associated with them is poorly understood. Building on satellite imagery, a household livelihood survey and semi-structured interviews, this research scrutinised changes of forest cover from the mid-1990s to 2015 in a municipality located in southeastern Mexico and investigated the proximate causes and underlying drivers of change at the household and community levels. Emerging evidence indicated that, contrary to the persistent narrative of deforestation for the region, forest cover change is highly dynamic including periods of deforestation and forest recovery. Moreover, a close examination of 24 communities showed forest cover gained terrain, while the agricultural frontier retracted. Drawing on a comparison between the household survey and previous analyses, it could be inferred that forest resurgence was produced by the decrease in the farming area and the increase in the abandonment of farming activities by some communities. Associated with the adaptation of households was the development of formal and informal institutions at the community level in response to macro-global forces linked to the implementation of forest conservation strategies, environmental degradation, market liberalization and increased urbanization. Overall, this research adds not only to our understanding of the complexity of land-use and cover change in emerging globalized economies but also exemplifies the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tropical forest systems, which challenges partial models of deforestation and policies designed to reduce it. The research may be focused on a narrow region of the globe, nevertheless, the insights and recommendation provided may be useful to further forest conservation schemes in other tropical regions.
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Toro, Balbontin Darío. "Analyse de la détérioration de la forêt de la Cordillère de la Costa dans le sud chilien : géomatique et modélisation prospective appliquée sur une forêt patrimoniale de la province d'Osorno (41º 15’ - 41º 00’ latitude Sud)." Thesis, Toulouse 2, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014TOU20068/document.
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On étudie une zone de la Cordillère de la Costa au sud du Chili (41°15'S-41°00'S), habitée par l'ethnie Mapuche. Là, il y a encore des précieuses forêts tempérées, qui ont une haute priorité de conservation au plan mondial. Mais, il est constaté, un processus continu de transformation lié à l'extraction de bois de chauffe, l'élevage extensif, la perturbation de l'habitat du conifère Fitzroya cupressoides, et le déploiement des plantations forestières. Sur la base d'une classification multi-temporelle d'images satellite, une modélisation spatio-temporelle a été mise en œuvre pour comprendre et anticiper la dynamique de la détérioration de la forêt. L'analyse rétrospective révèle qu'entre 1976 et 2008, la forêt a été réduite 12400 ha, soit un taux de déforestation 0,25% par an. 20 modèles de déforestation sont calibrés, 4 d'entre eux sont sélectionnés pour construire des scénarios prospectifs. La simulation prévoit que la diminution de forêt entre 2008 et 2040 pourrait atteindre 13000 ha. Deux autres modèles mis en œuvre simulent l'évolution de la qualité de l'habitat de F. cupressoides. Les scénarios prévoient une augmentation de la surface détériorée ; l’extrapolation à partir de la période d’apprentissage 2001-2008 pendant laquelle la plus grande part de terres indigènes a été légalisée, par rapport à la période précédente à 2001, prédit une augmentation plus significative de la surface détériorée. On fournit un outil pour amplifier la gestion territoriale des systèmes environnementaux toujours non incorporée dans la planification chilienne. Enfin, la thèse met également d'intéressantes comparaisons entre modèles qui diffèrent par rapport aux paramètres de calibration<br>SAn area of the Cordillera de la Costa is studied in southern Chile (41°15'S - 41°00'S), inhabited by ethnic Mapuche. There are still valuable temperate forests that have high conservation priority worldwide. But it is found, a continuous process of transformation related to the extraction of firewood, ranching, disruption of habitat conifer Fitzroya cupressoides, and deployment of forest plantations. Based on a multi-temporal satellite images classification, a spatial-temporal modeling was implemented to understand and predict the dynamics of the deterioration of the forest. Retrospective analysis revealed that between 1976 and 2008, the forest has been reduced 12,400 ha, a deforestation rate of 0.25% per annum. 20 models of deforestation are calibrated, 4 of them are selected to construct scenarios. The simulation predicted that reductions of forest between 2008 and 2040 could reach 13,000 ha. Two other models implemented simulate changes in habitat quality F. cupressoides. Scenarios predict an increase in the damaged surface; extrapolating from the learning period 2001-2008 during which the largest share of indigenous lands was legalized, compared with the previous period to 2001, predicts a significant increase in the damaged surface. In this way, it provides a tool to enhance the local management of environmental systems still not incorporated into the Chilean planning. Finally, the thesis also makes interesting comparisons between models that differ with respect to the calibration parameters
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Krause, Michael. "Economic potential and sectoral impacts of forest-based climate change mitigation." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Lebenswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17220.
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Die vermiedene tropische Entwaldung und zusätzliche Aufforstungen sind von zentraler Bedeutung für die Klimawandelvermeidung, üben aber zusätzlichen Druck auf die globalen Landressourcen zur Produktion von Nahrungsgütern, Futtermittel, Fasern, Bioenergie und Rundholz dar. Die Ziele der Studie beziehen sich auf die Analyse der Verzichtskosten in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie das Potential zur Klimawandelvermeidung in globalen Wäldern durch normative und marktbasierte Klimaschutzprogramme. Das globale ökonomische Landnutzungsmodell ''Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment'' (MAgPIE) wurde um eine konsistente Landnutzungsdatenbank und den Forstsektor erweitert. Es simuliert die räumlich-explizite Landnutzung und deren Änderungen während die Kosten land- und forstwirtschaftlicher Produktion unter gegebener Nachfrage nach Gütern geschätzt werden. Szenarien zu Klimaschutzmaßnahmen werden verglichen mit Referenzszenarien über Zeithorizonte bis zum Jahr 2100. Die Ergebnisse verweisen auf ein begrenztes Mitigationspotential normativen tropischen Waldschutzes zu geringen zusätzlichen Kosten in der Landwirtschaft. Lateinamerika profitiert von ausreichenden Landreserven und geringem Anstieg in der Güternachfrage und geringer Referenzentwaldung. Die Verlagerung von Emissionen durch regionalen Waldschutz hat Auswirkungen auf die sektoralen Produktionskosten und verringert das globale ökonomische Potential. Die Schlussfolgerungen betreffen 1) den Bedarf an substantieller Ertragssteigerung in Sub-Sahara Afrika als Voraussetzung für die erfolgreiche Umsetzung vermiedener Entwaldung, 2) die erhöhte Gefahr der Verlagerung von Emissionen aus Entwaldung durch die Umsetzung regionaler Klimaschutzprogramme und der Liberalisierung des Holzhandels, 3) das hohe ökonomische Potential integrierter Klimaschutzprogramme zu moderaten Verzichtskosten, sowie 4) die Notwendigkeit zusätzlicher Forschung bezüglich der Unsicherheiten in Parametern und Modellprozessen.<br>Avoiding tropical deforestation and additional afforestation are of primary importance for climate change mitigation but exert additional pressure on global land resources for the production of food, feed, fibre, bioenergy and timber. The study objectives relate to the analysis of the foregone economic benefits, the opportunity costs, in agriculture and forestry and the climate change mitigation potential of global forests in normative and market-based programmes. The global economic ‘Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment'' (MAgPIE) has been extended by a consistent land use database and the forestry sector. It simulates spatially-explicit land use and land use changes while estimating the costs of production in agriculture and forestry to satisfy a prescribed demand. Climate change mitigation scenarios are contrasted to baselines for time horizons up to the year 2100. The results show the limited mitigation potential of normative forest conservation in tropical regions at low additional costs in agriculture. Latin America benefits from sufficient land endowments and low increases in crop demand leading to relatively low baseline deforestation. The displacement of carbon emissions between regions impacts the regional agriculture and forestry production costs and reduces the global economic potential. The conclusions pertain to the 1) need for high rates of yield increase in Sub-Saharan Africa as a precondition for successfully avoided deforestation, 2) increased threat of regional carbon emission leakage from implementing mitigation programmes and liberalized trade of timber, 3) high economic potential of climate change mitigation from integrating afforestation and avoided deforestation at moderate costs, and 4) additional research needs to account for significant uncertainties from growth and cost parameters and model processes.
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Hesse, Cornelia [Verfasser], Valentina [Akademischer Betreuer] Krysanova, Axel [Akademischer Betreuer] Bronstert, Axel [Gutachter] Bronstert, Dörthe [Gutachter] Tetzlaff, and Britta [Gutachter] Schmalz. "Integrated water quality modelling in meso- to large-scale catchments of the Elbe river basin under climate and land use change / Cornelia Hesse ; Gutachter: Axel Bronstert, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Britta Schmalz ; Valentina Krysanova, Axel Bronstert." Potsdam : Universität Potsdam, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1218404280/34.
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Lundgren, Kajsa. "Planning support for reducing risks related to flooding : A case study of flood response in Kista residential area and Igelbäcken stream, Sweden." Thesis, KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik (flyttat 20130630), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-210920.
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Flooding has been identified as the most widespread and most frequently occurring natural disaster by the United Nation. Sweden is no exception when it comes to being affected by flooding, and several major flood events have been seen in recent years. The Swedish National Board of Building, Housing and Planning published a report on climate adaption in 2010 where they stated that Sweden is missing over all strategies and goals meet the demands of more frequent and intense rain events. Present thesis aimed to develop planning support for integration of hydrological perspectives in urban planning to manage water related risks such as flooding and high water levels. This was done through hydrodynamic modelling in MIKE FLOOD, developed by the DHI, where a 1D stream model was coupled with a 2D free-surface flow model. The model was run for three different scenarios reflecting current conditions (Scenario 1), climate change (Scenario 2) and land use change (Scenario 3). The study area chosen for present study was Kista residential area, located northwest of Stockholm, and part of Igelbäcken stream that runs by Kista. Igelbäcken stream was represented by a 1D stream model in the software MIKE 11 provided by DHI and Järfälla municipality, whereas a 2D model in MIKE 21 for Kista and the stream surroundings was setup throughout the project. Data was provided by Stockholm Vatten och Avfall and processed in ArcMap before it could be used in the modelling. The MIKE 21 model required data regarding topography, land use, and precipitation. A 100-year flood, based on a series of designed rain events with various duration and intensity, was used as precipitation input to replicated a hypothetical major rain event. Flooding in Scenario 2 was more extensive than flooding in Scenario 1, which was expected since Scenario 2 was based on a 100-year flood with a climate change factor of 1.25 and projection for year 2100. Scenario 3, which represented a “worst case” scenario with all planned exploitation of Kista identified as impermeable surface, forced the water to move further down in the topography compared with Scenario 1. Several buildings were more or less surrounded by at least 0.3 meter of water in Scenario 3. Water levels in Igelbäcken stream were strongly affected by the rain events and showed an increase of 0.4, 0.9, and 0.4 meter for the three scenarios at the end of the simulations which lasted for six hours. In conclusion, findings of present study show larger flooding extent that previously performed studies in the area and they reflect fast response in Igelbäcken stream with respect to increased water level. Indicating that effects from major rain events should not be underestimated. Furthermore, the findings could prove useful for identification of major runoff pathways and identification of suitable locations for multifunctional with respect to infiltration and retardation, if available at an early stage in the planning process. Thus, this type of study could prove useful for integration of hydrology in the urban planning process.<br>Översvämningar har identifierats som världens mest utspridda och vanligast förekommande naturkatastroftyp av FN. Sverige är inget undantag när det kommer till påverkas av översvämningar, under de senaste åren har flera stora översvämningar förekommit i landet. Boverket publicerade 2010 en rapport gällande Sveriges hantering av klimatanpassning. Slutsatsen av denna rapport var att övergripande strategier och mål för klimatanpassning saknas när det gäller hantering av kraftiga skyfall och att bättring krävs för en hållbar samhällsutveckling. Denna studie syftade till att utveckla planeringsstöd för integrering av ett hydrologiskt perspektiv i urban planering för att hantera vattenrelaterade risker så som översvämning och höga vattennivåer. Detta gjordes genom hydrodynamiks modellering i mjukvaran MIKE FLOOD, utvecklad av DHI, där en 1D vattendragsmodell kopplades till en 2D ytavrinningsmodell. Modellen kördes för tre scenarion: nuläget (Scenario 1), klimatförändring (Scenario 2) och förändrad markanvändning (Scenario 3). Förorten Kista, belägen nordväst om Stockholm, och den del av Igelbäcken som passerar Kista valdes som studieområde. Igelbäcken representerades av en 1D vattendragsmodell, MIKE 11, som tillhandahölls av DHI, medan en 2D ytavrinningsmodell i MIKE 21 sattes upp för Kista och Igelbäckens omgivning under projektets gång. Data tillhandahölls av Stockholm Vatten och Avfall och bearbetades i ArcMap innan den kunde användas i modelleringen. MIKE 21 modellen baserades på data rörande topografi, markanvändning och nederbörd. Ett 100-års regn, baserat på en serie möjliga 100-års regn med varierande intensitet och varaktighet, användes som nederbördsdata för att efterlikna ett hypotetiskt kraftigt skyfall. Översvämning i Scenario 2 hade en större utbredning än Scenario 1, vilket var väntat då Scenario 2 baserades på ett 100-års regn med en klimatförändringfaktor på 1.25 och en klimatprojektion för år 2100. Scenario 3, vilket representerade ett ”värsta möjliga” scenario med all planerad exploatering i Kista definierad som icke genomsläpplig yta, tvingade vatten som ansamlats på ytan att röra sig längre ner i topografin eller fångade det på nya ställen i studieområdet jämfört med Scenario 1. Ett flertal byggnader var till stor del omringade av ett vattendjup på åtminstone 0.3 meter i Scenario 3. Vattennivåer i Igelbäcken var inledningsvis väldigt låga, men påvisade sedan en ökning av 0.4, 0.9 samt 0.4 meter i respektive scenario vid simuleringens slut (vilken varade i sex timmar). Sammanfattningsvis påvisade studien större översvämningsspridning än tidigare genomförd översvämningsmodellering i området. Vidare visade resultaten en snabb respons i Igelbäcken med avseende på vattennivåförändringar vid simuleringens slut. Detta indikerar att påverkan från kraftiga skyfall inte bör underskattas. Resultaten ses som användbara i ett tidigt stadie av planeringsprocessen för identifiering av viktiga ytavrinningsvägar i landskapet samt för lokalisering av lämpliga ytor för etablering av multifunktionella ytor, till exempel parker, med avseende på infiltration och fördröjning av dagvatten. Denna typ av studie kan därmed ses som användbar för integration av ett hydrologiskt perspektiv i den urbana planeringsprocessen.
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Post, Joachim. "Integrated process-based simulation of soil carbon dynamics in river basins under present, recent past and future environmental conditions." Phd thesis, kostenfrei, 2006. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2006/1150/.
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Keyvanshokouhi, Kardan Saba. "Projecting the evolution of soil due to global change." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018AIXM0072.
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Pour protéger la ressource sol, il est nécessaire de prévoir les conséquences des activités humaines et du changement global sur l'évolution des sols notamment en modélisant cette dernière. Dans cette étude, nous avons démontré la sensibilité de SoilGen2.24 au climat, à l’usage des terres et à la réduction du travail du sol et identifié trois de ses principales limites, à savoir, certains processus trop simplifiés, certains processus manquants et une hypothèse de volume constant du sol. Ainsi, nous avons 1) construit le premier modèle d'évolution du sol entièrement modulaire, OC-VGEN, en intégrant dans VSoil, les processus du modèle SoilGen2.24; 2) testé différents formalismes pour certains des processus clés responsables de la distribution verticale de Corg, à savoir la distribution verticale des racines, la bioturbation et l'évolution verticale du taux de décomposition de Corg; 3) proposé un module mécaniste du changement de volume pour la modélisation de l'évolution du sol à court et moyen terme. OC-VGEN a été utilisé pour reproduire et projeter l’évolution, à l’échelle du siècle, de la distribution verticale de Corg pour des Luvisols ayant connu des historiques d'utilisation des terres et de travail du sol différents. Nous avons montré que 1) l'impact des processus de rétroaction sur la distribution verticale de Corg n'est pas négligeable; 2) l'usage des terres et le travail du sol influencent les rétroactions internes entraînant un impact indirect sur la dynamique de Corg; 3) le manque de connaissances sur les processus a une plus grande influence sur les trajectoires d’évolution des sols que les incertitudes sur les scénarios climatiques ou d'usage des terres<br>Soil is a critical natural resource that inherently changes through time. To preserve the soil and protect it, it is necessary to predict the consequences of human activities and global change on soil evolution. This can be achieved using soil evolution modelling. In this study, we demonstrated the sensitivity of SoilGen to climate, land use and tillage reduction and identified three of its main limitations, namely some over-simplified processes, some missing processes and a simplifying assumption of constant soil volume. To overcome these limitations, we 1) built up the first fully modular soil evolution model, OC-VGEN, by using the process of SoilGen2.24 model in a modelling platform, VSoil; 2) tested different formalisms for some of the key processes responsible for the OC depth distribution, namely the root depth distribution, bioturbation and the depth evolution of the OC decomposition rate; 3) proposed a first, mechanistic approach to account for soil volume change in a short to medium time scale soil evolution modelling. OC-VGEN was used to reproduce and project the depth distribution of OC at a century time scale for Luvisols having experienced different histories of land use and tillage. We demonstrated that, at this time scale, 1) the impact of feedback processes on OC depth distribution are not negligible; 2) land use and tillage, beside their direct impact on the input of organic matter to soil, influence the internal feedbacks leading to an indirect impact on OC dynamics; 3) when projecting soil evolution, the lack of knowledge on the process definition has a larger influence on the projected trajectories than uncertainties on climate or land use scenarios
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Fujisaki, Kenji. "Devenir des stocks de carbone organique des sols après déforestation et mise en culture : une analyse diachronique en contexte amazonien." Thesis, Montpellier, SupAgro, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014NSAM0036/document.
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Le carbone organique des sols (COS) joue un rôle majeur dans le maintien des propriétés des sols, et constitue un important réservoir de carbone sensible aux perturbations anthropiques dont les changements d'usage ou de gestion des terres. En Amazonie, la déforestation libère des gaz à effet de serre (GES) par le brûlis de la végétation mais les stocks de COS sont également susceptibles d'évoluer et de contribuer aux émissions de GES. Nous montrons que ces variations de stocks sont cependant mal comprises à l'échelle du biome, en raison de l'approche par chrono-séquence qui induit de nombreuses incertitudes et du manque de données sur la gestion des agrosystèmes implantés après déforestation. L'étude a été conduite sur un site agronomique diachronique en Guyane, déboisé sans brûlis et avec des restitutions de biomasse forestière au sol, sur lequel ont été implantés 3 systèmes de culture : une prairie et deux systèmes maïs/soja avec ou sans travail du sol. L'objectif a été de déterminer le devenir du carbone forestier et du COS des agrosystèmes. Les fluctuations des stocks ont été mesurées jusqu'à 5 ans après déforestation dans la couche 0-30 cm, un bilan est proposé pour la couche 0-100 cm à 5 ans. La décomposition des débris de bois, apportés au sol suite à la déforestation, a été étudiée via leur perte de masse et leur caractérisation par pyrolyse Rock-Eval. La répartition granulométrique du COS a été mesurée 4 ans après déforestation. L'isotopie δ13C a été utilisée dans le sol sous prairie pour distinguer le carbone d'origine prairiale. L'apport de carbone issu de la déforestation a entrainé une augmentation des stocks de COS, mais de courte durée car les débris de bois se sont rapidement décomposés et n'ont pas induit de stockage durable de COS. Cinq ans après déforestation les stocks de COS sous prairie sont similaires à ceux observés sous forêt, grâce à des apports de carbone importants par les racines, alors que sous cultures les stocks diminuent d'environ 18 %, sans que l'on ait distingué un effet du travail du sol. La décroissance du carbone forestier, qui concerne l'ensemble des fractions granulométriques du sol, a donc été compensée par les apports de carbone sous prairie, ce qui n'est pas le cas sous cultures annuelles. Le modèle RothC a pu être validé dans notre situation même s'il a surestimé légèrement les stocks sous cultures. Nos résultats, replacés dans le contexte amazonien montrent que les diminutions de COS observées ici sont moins importantes que pour l'ensemble des tropiques humides, probablement en raison de la gestion optimale du site et de la courte durée du temps d'observation<br>Soil organic carbon is a key component of soil quality, and represents a large part of the terrestrial carbon stock, sensitive to human perturbations including land-use change. In Amazonia, deforestation induces greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions due to vegetation burning, but SOC stocks also change, which can induce GHG emissions. We show that these changes are misunderstood at the biome scale, because of the chronosequence approach that induces uncertainties, and because of the lack of management data of the agrosystems established after deforestation. We studied here an agronomic trial with a diachronic approach in French Guiana, deforested with a fire-free method that returned large amount of forest organic matter. Three agrosystems were set up: a grassland and two annual crop systems (maize/soybean) with and without soil tillage. We aimed to measure the fate of forest carbon and of SOC in the agrosystems. SOC stocks fluctuations were assessed up to 5 years after deforestation in the layer 0-30 cm, and a comparison forest-agroecosystems in the layer 0-100 cm was done at 5 years. Decomposition of woody debris buried in the soil after deforestation was assessed by mass loss approach and Rock-Eval pyrolysis. SOC distribution in granulometric fractions was measured 4 years after deforestation. δ13C methods were used in the grassland soil to distinguish the carbon derived from forest or grassland. We found that carbon inputs from deforestation increased SOC stocks, but only at short-term because woody debris decomposition was fast and did not induce a mid-term SOC storage. Five years after deforestation SOC stocks in grassland are similar to the forest, thanks to carbon inputs from root activity. In the annual crops SOC stocks decrease of about 18 %, and no difference is found according to the soil tillage. The decay of forest soil carbon, which affected the whole granulometric fractions of SOC, is thus offset in grassland but not in annual crops. RothC model could be validated in our study, but slightly overestimated SOC stocks in annual crops. Replaced in the Amazonian context, our results showed that the SOC decrease here was lower than other studies across humid tropics. This can probably be explained by the optimal management of the agrosystems, and the short time lapse studied
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Agbanou, Bidossèssi Thierry. "Dynamique de l'occupation du sol dans le secteur Natitingou-Boukombé (nord-ouest bénin) : de l'analyse diachronique à une modélisation prospective." Thesis, Toulouse 2, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018TOU20076.
Full textAbstract:
Au Bénin, les forêts et les savanes sont les types d’occupation du sol prédominants et constituent des systèmes dynamiques dont l’évolution dépend de plusieurs facteurs environnementaux et anthropiques. Dans le secteur Natitingou-Boukombé (Nord-Ouest-Bénin), la plupart de ces écosystèmes sont en dégradation du fait des activités anthropiques accrues. L’objectif de cette étude est de quantifier la dynamique paysagère et d’explorer les futurs possibles de l’occupation du sol à partir des outils de télédétection, de SIG et de la modélisation spatio-temporelle. Les données utilisées sont essentiellement des images satellitaires Landsat TM de 1987, ETM+ de 2000, OLIR TIRS de 2016, des séries d’images Modis VCF et NDVI de 2000 à 2016. Une classification multi-date a permis de quantifier les changements d’occupation du sol dans ce secteur d’étude.Il ressort des résultats qu’entre 1987 et 2016, le paysage initialement dominé par les forêts claires et savanes boisées (38,81 %) et les savanes arborées et arbustives (25,82 %) en 1987 a été remplacé par des catégories d’occupation du sol dont les plus importantes sont les savanes arborées et arbustives (40,53 %) et les mosaïques de cultures et jachères (50,61 %) en 2016. Les activités anthropiques et les perturbations climatiques sont les principaux déterminants de cette dynamique de l’occupation du sol. Ces facteurs explicatifs combinés à l’analyse prospective a permis d’explorer trois scénarios prospectifs possibles à l’horizon 2031.Le scenario Business-As-Usual (BAU), extrapolant les tendances actuelles, montre qu’à l’horizon 2031 le paysage de ce secteur d’étude serait dominé par les mosaïques de cultures et jachères (69,64 %), les savanes arborées et arbustives (21,93 %), les savanes saxicoles (3,6 %) et les agglomérations (2,66 %). Dans le scénario Croissance Economique Rapide (CER) qui met l’accent seulement sur l’accroissement des productions agricoles, le paysage sera composé essentiellement de mosaïques de cultures et jachères (73,72 %), les savanes arborées et arbustives (17,35 %), les savanes saxicoles (3,7 %) et les agglomérations (3,06 %). Le scénario Durabilité Environnementale Coordonnée (DEC) qui intègre la préservation de l’environnement, présente un paysage essentiellement composé de mosaïques de cultures et jachères (67,97 %), de savanes arborées et arbustives (22,6 %), de savanes saxicoles (3,7 %), d’agglomérations (2,3 %), de forêts claires et savanes boisées (1,7 %) et de plantations (1,05 %). Il y a donc dans ce dernier scénario un effort de restauration des savanes arborées et arbustives, des forêts claires et savanes boisées et des plantations.Ce paysage dont dépend la survie des populations évolue dans le sens de sa dégradation. Et sans inversion de la tendance actuelle, la situation s’aggravera d’ici à 2031. Cependant les résultats obtenus avec le scénario Durabilité Environnementale Coordonnée (DEC) montrent que l’espoir est permis si les autorités en charge de la gestion du territoire et de l’environnement intègrent le volet préservation de l’environnement dans leurs prises de décisions<br>In Benin, forests and savannahs are the predominant types of land use and constitute dynamic systems whose evolution depends on several environmental and anthropogenic factors. In the Natitingou-Boukombé sector (Northwestern Benin), most of these ecosystems are in degradation due to increased anthropogenic activities. The objective of this study is to quantify the landscape dynamics and explore all possible future land use using remote sensing tools. The data used are mainly Landsat TM satellite images from 1987, ETM+ from 2000, OLIR TIRS from 2016, Modis VCF and NDVI series from 2000 to 2016. A multi-date classification was used to quantify land use changes in this study area.The results show that between 1987 and 2016, the landscape initially dominated by clear forests and wooded savannahs (38.81%) and wooded savannahs and shrubs (25.82%) in 1987 was replaced by land use categories, the most important of which were wooded savannahs and shrubs (40.53%) and cropland and fallow mosaics (50.61%) in 2016. Human activities and climatic disturbances are the main determinants of this land use dynamics. These explanatory factors, combined with the prospective analysis, made it possible to explore three possible future-oriented scenarios by 2031.The Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU) extrapolating current trends shows that by 2031 the landscape of this study area will be dominated by mosaics of crops and fallow land (69.64%), tree and shrub savannahs (21.93%), saxicultural savannahs (3.6%) and agglomerations (2.66%). In the Rapid Economic Growth (REC) scenario, which focuses solely on increasing agricultural production, the landscape will consist mainly of mosaics of crops and fallow land (73.72%), wooded savannahs and shrubs (17.35%), saxicultural savannahs (3.7%) and agglomerations (3.06%). The Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CED) scenario, which incorporates environmental preservation, presents a landscape essentially composed of mosaics of crops and fallows (67.97%), wooded savannahs and shrubs (22.6%), saxicultural savannahs (3.7%), agglomerations (2.3%), clear forests and wooded savannahs (1.7%) and plantations (1.05%). In the latter scenario, there is therefore an effort to restore wooded savannahs and shrubs, clear forests and wooded savannahs and plantations.This landscape, on which the survival of populations depends, is evolving in the sense of its degradation. And it will get worse by 2031 if nothing is done. But the results obtained in the Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CED) scenario show that hope is possible if the authorities in charge of land management and the environment integrate the stolen environmental preservation into their decision-making