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Meneray, Jennifer. "Coming Out| When Micro Level Vulnerabilities lead to Macro Level Risk." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10822934.
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Exploratory projects have the capability to emerge new ways of understanding data. Non-traditional perspectives, like the intersectional-vulnerability standpoint used in this project, enable researchers to step back and look at experiences differently. At the beginning of this paper, I relate my experience of coming out as lesbian to the experience of coming out as a child witness of abuse in order to set the standard of how I conceptualize coming out. Coming out was an experience that connects LGBTQ people across the spectrum allowing me to use that experience to bring LGBTQ identities together. Assumptions about the coming out experience in relation to sexual orientation and gender identity are challenged and a new theory emerges. Related to coming out, the experience of getting out of an abusive relationship reflects parallel perceptions around fear, risk, and vulnerability. It is by building the bridge between researcher and participants that I was able to challenge bias and create a new idea about the coming out/getting out process for LGBTQ survivors.
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Mårtensson, Jonathan. "Visualisation of Risk Level in Portfolio Management." Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Mathematics, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-121375.
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Fang, Cheng S. M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Mission-level planning with constraints on risk." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/93799.
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Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 89-94).
The problem of routing vehicles for data collection is common in the scientific world. In underwater surveys with autonomous vehicles, for example those conducted by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) must visit a list of sites to take samples. The order in which the locations are visited should be such that samples are taken during specified time windows, and the total distance travelled is relatively short. An automated planner could act as a force multiplier for all such scientific missions. While current planners in the operations research community can perform vehicle routing with deterministic traversal and deterministic time windows, they are unable to account for stochasticity inherent in real world applications. For example, the time of traversal for vehicles between locations may be uncertain, due to disturbances such as varying currents. Arrival deadlines may also be stochastic, due to the probabilistic times of occurrence for interesting phenomena at each location. Lastly, there is a non-zero probability of failure during traversal, when the vehicle strikes the sea floor due to sudden changes in topography. The ability to plan under uncertainty is vital when we require probabilistic guarantees on success. In this thesis, I consider a novel stochastic single-vehicle routing problem, and propose a chance-constrained solution method. As with previous work, I assume that there exists some roadmap representation of the world with associated costs of traversal, and the vehicle must visit a set of goals subject to a list of temporal constraints. The novelty of my problem is due to the addition of probabilistic times for edge traversal, probabilistic temporal constraints, and stochastic breakdowns on edge traversal. I present a solution method which returns a list of waypoints and a schedule of events which minimises the cost of traversal, subject to an upper bound on the probability of breakdowns and failure to meet temporal constraints. Noting dependence of travel time on path taken, I decompose the problem into two stages. The first stage finds, in best first order, solutions which allow the vehicle to visit the goal locations subject to the upper bound on the probability of breakdowns. Using each solution, the planner can extract the corresponding probabilistic durations for travel times and rewrite these as probabilistic temporal constraints. The second stage solves the resulting chance- constrained probabilistic simple temporal problem (CC-pSTP), in which events must be scheduled such that the probability of failing any of the temporal constraints is below the specified bound. I show that the joint solutions to the first and second stages correspond to valid waypoints and schedules for the original problem, and work through an example problem for an AUV survey mission.
by Cheng Fang.
S.M.
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Pierre, P. Joseph. "Individual-level risk and community-level risk for emotional and behavioural problems in children of disadvantaged communities in Ontario." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/MQ55926.pdf.
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Babick, John P. "Tri-level optimization of critical infrastructure resilience." Thesis, Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 2009. http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2009/Sep/09Sep%5FBabick.pdf.
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Thesis (M.S. in Operations Research)--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2009.Thesis Advisor(s): Carlyle, W. Matthew. "September 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on November 04, 2009. Author(s) subject terms: Network analysis for critical infrastructure. Includes bibliographical references (p. 31-32). Also available in print.
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Osborn, Douglas M. "Seamless Level 2 / Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Dynamic Event Tree Analysis." The Ohio State University, 2013. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1372524956.
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Sangrasi, Asif. "Component level risk assessment modelling for grid resources." Thesis, University of Leeds, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.590154.
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Service level agreements (SLAs), as formal contractual agreements, increase the confidence level between the End User and the Grid Resource provider, as compared to the best effort approach. However, SLAs fail short of assessing the risk in acceptance of the SLA; Risk Assessment in Grid computing fills that gap. Risk Assessment is crucial for the Resource provider as failing to fulfil an SLA will result in facing a financial penalty_ Thus risk, a deterrent to the commercial viability of Grids, needs to be assessed and mitigated to overcome the pitfalls associated with SLAs. The current approaches to assess and manage risk in Grid computing are a major step towards the provisioning of Quality of Service (QoS) to the end-user. However these approaches are based on node or machine level Assessment. As a node may contain CPU(s), storage devices, connections for communication and software resource, consequently a node failure may actually be a failure of any of these components. Our approach towards Risk Assessment is aimed at a granularity level of individual components as compared to machine level in previous efforts. Moreover the past efforts of risk assessment at node level fail short of considering the nature of the Grid Failure data that is repairable or replaceable. Thus to overcome the short comings of the previous efforts, we propose Risk Assessment Model(s) at component level considering the resources repairable and replaceable. A three step methodology was utilized in this work consisting of Data analysis, Risk modelling and Experimentation. The Probabilistic model, proposed at the component level based on senes and parallel model(s) considers Grid Resources as replaceable is based on. Similarly an R-out-N model is proposed for the aggregation of risk values for a number of nodes and provides more detailed results but with some pitfalls, against the parallel model. On the other hand, a risk assessment model at the component level based on NonHomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) model is proposed considering Grid Resources as Repairable. Grid failure data is used for the experimentation at the component level. The proposed NHPP based Grid risk model selection is validated by using a goodness of fit test along with graphical approaches. Similarly, considering Grid resources as repairable, a Semi Markov based Risk assessment model is also proposed. The Semi Markov based risk assessment model provides slight advantages over the NHPP based model such as taking repairability extrinsically and assessing the probabilities of repair for an individual components within a node. The three proposed risk models are evaluated by conducting the experimentation and are further evaluated by conducting a comparative evaluation and performance analysis of the proposed models. Detailed risk assessment information at the component level is provided by the experimental results of the proposed risk assessment models which can help enable Grid Resource provider to manage and use the Grid resources efficiently. These results can in turn help enhance the commercial viability and QoS provisioning to End Users by utilization of risk aware scheduling by Grid Resource Provider.
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Li, Bin. "Risk informed service level agreement for cloud brokerage." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.580347.
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The use of distributed computing systems, including Grids and Compute Utilities, and now Clouds, becomes a consideration for businesses hoping to manage start-up costs and times, as well as reduce the physical and environmental footprint of infrastructures. Instead of purchasing and maintaining hardware and software, organisations and individuals can take advantage of pay-per- use (utility) models that relate directly to their requirements of infrastructures, platforms and software. However, such metered services are not widely adopted yet due to the lack of assurance of Quality of Service (QoS). It is suggested that such systems will only attain greater acceptance by a larger audience of commercial consumers if binding Service Level Agreements (SLAs) are provided that encompass service descriptions, costs of provision and, importantly, assurances on availability, performance, and liability. Prediction, quantification of risk, and consideration of liability in case of underperformance are considered essential for the future provision of Computer (Cloud) Economics - in particular, for the provision of SLAs through resource brokers, and generally to be more comparable to financial markets. The principal focus of this thesis is on building brokerage and related services for supporting growth of Cloud and contributing to future computational economics. A brokerage should provide negotiation mechanisms between consumers and providers, and perhaps manage available computer resources, to realise the goals of both parties. SLAs are key to this, where each SLA details price, risk, performance and QoS parameters, amongst others. This thesis presents a novel approach that supports the creation and management of Service Level Agreements, aimed towards improved uptake of cornmoditised computational infrastructures, platforms and software services. By analysing issues within current SLAs, it summarises necessary characteristics to be addressed in Cloud SLAs. Inspired by financial portfolio analysis and in particular by credit derivatives, this work demonstrates how the proposed Cloud Collateralised SLA Obligations (CSO), analogous to synthetic collateralised debt obligations (CDO), can be used to mitigate risk of failure or underperformance through diversification of compute resource portfolios. The CSO prices risk integrates into service insurance, and builds in penalties, and in contrast to well-known Cloud price models, relates variable performance to variable price. This performance-price relationship would also be necessary for the appropriate use of other financial models. Through Value-at-Risk (VaR) style analysis, the probability of failure (risk of underperformance) can be related to a confidence level for each SLA offer - the confidence of meeting the SLA. The thesis further identifies how performance tranches support an autonomic aspect in attempting to ensure satisfaction of higher-value SLAs as a trade off against higher-risk, lower-value SLAs. The approach can readily integrate with any SLA framework that supports real- time dynamic characteristics. Outcomes are broadly relevant to Cloud Computing, and more specifically to Infrastructure as a Service Clouds.
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Ritchie, Ross Andrew. "Managing risk in operations : a multi-level study." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2014. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/66746/.
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This research explores the management of risk in operations. It explores the different structures influencing the treatment of risk and the influence on managerial risk taking behaviours. There is limited understanding within the extant literature of the different treatment strategies for risk in operations and what influences selection of treatment strategy. This research employs an abductive approach iterating between the theoretical and empirical. There are four levels of analysis: the firm, the function, the group and the individual. The research was conducted in two European Energy companies. The research found that there is a complex interaction between organizational structures and individual perceptions in managing risk. Corporate risk structures have limited influence on the selection of risk treatments. The specification of business function (service or asset focus) informs the process of risk management and use of systems. Use of systems and valuation techniques underpin the risk prioritization process and specifically the assessment of risk. There is an order of decision influences that reflects the Levers of Control (Simons, 1995; 1998): Risk treatments are prohibited by boundary systems. Secondly, individual’s beliefs influence positive selection of treatment, and third where a treatment has not been selected through beliefs, the performance system is consulted. The performance system is most likely to influence selection of risk acceptance or risk mitigation. It is found that classification of risk has more than a semantic influence on perception and risk treatment; it can prohibit uses of certain treatments and inform priority. Understanding of the decision process matures and increases in complexity in senior managers. It is found that the performance system has influences on manager’s beliefs and in the long term, reflecting vision and mission the implementation of boundary conditions.
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Holloman, Sherrica S. "Validating the Use of pPerformance Risk Indices for System-Level Risk and Maturity Assessments." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10086217.
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With pressure on the U.S. Defense Acquisition System (DAS) to reduce cost overruns and schedule delays, system engineers’ performance is only as good as their tools. Recent literature details a need for 1) objective, analytical risk quantification methodologies over traditional subjective qualitative methods – such as, expert judgment, and 2) mathematically rigorous system-level maturity assessments. The Mahafza, Componation, and Tippett (2005) Technology Performance Risk Index (TPRI) ties the assessment of technical performance to the quantification of risk of unmet performance; however, it is structured for component- level data as input. This study’s aim is to establish a modified TPRI with systems-level data as model input, and then validate the modified index with actual system-level data from the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). This work’s contribution is the establishment and validation of the System-level Performance Risk Index (SPRI). With the introduction of the SPRI, system-level metrics are better aligned, allowing for better assessment, tradeoff and balance of time, performance and cost constraints. This will allow system engineers and program managers to ultimately make better-informed system-level technical decisions throughout the development phase.
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Villaume, Erik. "Predicting customer level risk patterns in non-life insurance." Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-103590.
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Several models for predicting future customer profitability early into customer life-cycles in the property and casualty business are constructed and studied. The objective is to model risk at a customer level with input data available early into a private consumer’s lifespan. Two retained models, one using Generalized Linear Model another using a multilayer perceptron, a special form of Artificial Neural Network are evaluated using actual data. Numerical results show that differentiation on estimated future risk is most effective for customers with highest claim frequencies.
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Ghosh, Suchandra Tina 1973. "Risk-informing decisions about high-level nuclear waste repositories." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/33643.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (p. 129-137).
Performance assessments (PAs) are important sources of information for societal decisions in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) management, particularly in evaluating safety cases for proposed HLW repository development. Assessing risk from geologic repositories for HLW poses a significant challenge due to the uncertainties in modeling complex systems of such large temporal and spatial scales. Because of the extensive uncertainties, a typical safety case for a proposed HLW repository is comprised of PA results coupled with various defense-in-depth elements, such as the multi-barrier requirement for repository design, and insights from supplementary analyses. This thesis proposes an additional supplementary analysis, the Strategic Partitioning of Assumption Ranges and Consequences (SPARC), that could be used: (1) in a safety case to help build confidence in a repository system, (2) to provide risk information for decisions on how to allocate resources for future research, and (3) to provide risk information for stakeholder deliberation.
(cont.) The SPARC method extracts risk information from existing PAs and supporting databases by uncovering what sets of model parameter values taken together could result in a substantially-increased-dose (SID) from the repository, and displays the results in SPARC trees. The SPARC method is applied to the proposed Yucca Mountain HLW repository (YMR), as a demonstrative example. The YMR is a particularly interesting example since there have been many public disagreements about it from the inception of the project. This thesis demonstrates how risk information could be extracted from existing PAs for the YMR, with particular attention to addressing the concerns raised by stakeholders. Preliminary application of the SPARC method to the YMR shows that it yields interesting insights into 'savior' attributes of the repository, i.e., those parameter assumption ranges that, if true, are projected to prevent SIDs to different dose receptors (at 10-km or 20-km from the repository, for different future time periods) with very high probability. The thesis also explores how the SPARC method could contribute to other confidence-building exercises, such as assessing repository barrier capability and prioritizing future research efforts.
by Suchandra Tina Ghosh.
Ph.D.
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Ye, Kang. "Knowledge level modeling for systemic risk management in financial institutions /." access full-text access abstract and table of contents, 2009. http://libweb.cityu.edu.hk/cgi-bin/ezdb/thesis.pl?phd-is-b30082274f.pdf.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2009.""Submitted to College of Business in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-117)
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Liang, Ci. "Contributions to risk modeling and analysis at railway level crossings." Thesis, Lille 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018LIL1I017/document.
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L’objet de cette thèse porte sur l'analyse quantitative des risques et les techniques de modélisation dans le but d'améliorer la sécurité aux PN. Les différentes contributions de ce travail peuvent être présentées selon quatre volets : Sur le premier volet, nous présentons une analyse quantitative de l'impact de divers facteurs (mode de transport, région géographique et moment de trafic) sur le niveau de risque aux PN. Sur le deuxième volet, et en se basant sur des données expérimentales fines obtenues à partir de l’instrumentation de 12 PN à différents endroits en France, une analyse quantitative du comportement des automobilistes est réalisée pour explorer les mécanismes de violation des automobilistes lors de la traversée d’un PN. Sur le troisième volet, nous proposons un modèle statistique multi-facteurs de prévision des accidents. Un tel modèle, en plus de la prise en compte d’une multitude de facteurs, nous fournit une estimation de la fréquence des accidents avec une précision considérablement élevée par rapport aux modèles existants. Sur le dernier volet, nous proposons un cadre de modélisation efficace et complet basé sur des réseaux Bayésiens (RB) pour le raisonnement causal. Les résultats de la phase de validation indiquent que ce modèle de risque présente une bonne performance d'estimation. En résumé, les contributions de cette thèse offrent une réponse directe à l’insuffisante connaissance sur les divers mécanismes qui sous-tendent les accidents PN. De telles contributions sont un nouveau pas vers l'identification de mesures de conception pratiques et de solutions techniques ciblées, afin d'améliorer la sécurité des PNThis PhD thesis deals with advanced quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques with the aim to improve the safety of LXs. The contributions of the work reported in this thesis are four-fold:Firstly, we analyze the impact of various factors (transport mode, geographical region and traffic moment) on the risk level at LXs quantitatively. Then, based on the field experiments carried out at 12 LXs throughout France, through quantitative analysis of motorist behavior is performed to acquire the knowledge of motorist violation mechanism causing train-car collisions. Moreover, an advanced statistical accident prediction model which takes into account a variety of impacting factors, i.e., the average daily road traffic, the average daily railway traffic, the annual road accidents, the vertical road profile, the horizontal road alignment, the road width, the crossing length, the railway speed limit and the geographic region, is further developed. This model allows for estimating accident frequency with a considerably high accuracy and has a more appropriate form compared with the existing models pertaining to LX accident prediction. Subsequently, an effective and comprehensive modeling framework based on Bayesian networks (BNs) for risk reasoning is proposed. The performance validation results indicate that our BN risk model has sound estimation performance. In summary, the aforementioned contributions are a direct response to the key knowledge gap about various mechanisms underlying LX accidents. Such contributions pave the way for identifying practical design measures and targeted technical solutions, so as to improve LX safety
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MILANI, RICCARDO. "MULTI-LEVEL CORRUPTION RISK INDICATORS IN THE ITALIAN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/57129.
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Questo studio sviluppa un originale indicatore di rischio corruzione negli appalti pubblici Italiani e stima la correlazione tra le caratteristiche delle aziende aggiudicatarie e l’indicatore di rischio corruzione precedentemente stimato. L’indicatore di rischio corruzione è costruito a partire dai residui statistici di una procedura semi-parametrica a due stadi. Nella prima fase, i contratti dei lavori pubblici sono comparati per identificare l’inefficienza relativa di ciascun lavoro pubblico sulla base di due variabili predefinite – costi aggiuntivi e ritardi nella fase di esecuzione del contratto – attraverso una tecnica di valutazione delle performance (DEA). Nella seconda fase, l’indicatore di inefficienza generato nella prima fase è spiegato attraverso l’uso di determinanti di inefficienza, escludendo il fattore della corruzione che è trattato separatamente. Nella terza fase, i residui di stima sono trasformati in nuovi punteggi di rischio corruzione a livello di contratto pubblico. I risultati suggeriscono che: (1) le stazioni appaltanti ad elevato rischio corruzione si trovano maggiormente nel Lazio, in Lombardia e in Toscana; (2) le aziende aggiudicatarie ad alto rischio corruzione risiedono maggiormente nel Centro Italia (Abruzzo, Umbria e Lazio) e nel Sud Italia (Campania e Basilicata). Successivamente, l’esercizio di valutazione del rischio corruzione è mirato all'identificazione delle caratteristiche aziendali associate ad un rischio elevato di corruzione. I risultati suggeriscono che le aziende che si aggiudicano contratti ad alto rischio di corruzione sono più orientati alla ricerca del profitto, detengono meno debiti e necessitano mediamente di maggior tempo per pagare i loro clienti. Infine, queste aziende hanno maggiori probabilità di avere legami legali e/o finanziari con giurisdizioni off-shore e paradisi fiscali.This study develops an original corruption risk indicator at the Italian procurement level and estimates the correlation between the profile of contract suppliers and the corruption risk indicator in question. This corruption risk indicator relies on a residual approach following a two-stage, semi-parametric procedure. First, public work contracts are benchmarked to investigate the relative efficiency of each public work execution based on two predefined variables – cost overrun and time delay – using a data envelopment analysis (DEA). Second, DEA efficiency scores are regressed on environmental and contract-level determinants of inefficiency – excluding corruption which is treated separately. Third, the estimate residuals provide estimates of the potential risk of corruption at the contract level. The aggregated results from an updated Italian public procurement dataset suggest that: (1) the risk of corruption associated with contracting authorities prevails in larger urban areas, especially in Lazio, Tuscany and Lombardy; (2) the risk of corruption in relation to the location of firms is higher in central regions (Abruzzo, Umbria and Lazio) and southern regions (Campania and Basilicata). Then, a risk-based assessment exercise is performed to profile suppliers. The corruption risk indicator is regressed on suppliers’ financial and ownership data to identify patterns among firms winning risky contracts. Suppliers associated with high levels of corruption risk in public contracting are more profit-seeking, hold low levels of debts and on average need more days to pay their customers. Finally, suppliers involved in public work contracts at high risk of corruption are more likely to have legal and/or financial connections with off-shore jurisdictions and tax havens which might use financial and corporate secrecy to attract illicit financial flows.
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Sasraku, Francis M. "Regulatory Structures and Bank –Level Risk Management in Ghanaian Banks." Thesis, University of Bradford, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/15021.
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This research examines the impact of certain bank-specific variables on bank stability in Ghana, in the context of the existing regulatory structures. The thesis examines this issue along two main themes. The first part of this study examines whether two of the commonly used measures of banking stability, the CAMELS and the Z-Score, provide similar or different results in assessing the stability of banks in Ghana. The results of this study show that the use of the CAMELS and the Z-score measures could lead to different outcomes in terms of bank stability in Ghana. This suggests that the traditional micro-prudential CAMELS framework should be complemented with the Z-score which inherently has both micro and macro-prudential characteristics of signaling weaknesses in bank stability, and to enhance the management of bank stability. The second part of the study examines the impact of some bank-specific variables on bank stability. Using the panel data approach, the results show that while bank size, regulatory governance, regulatory independence and origin impact significantly on the stability score, there was no significant impact in terms of interbank borrowing and non-performing loans. Further analysis using the Blinder –Oaxaca decomposition also suggests that foreign banks in Ghana exhibit relatively higher levels of stability compared to local banks. The policy implications of these findings suggest that the liberalisation of the banking sector should be accompanied by an effective micro- and macro-prudential supervisory regime in order to manage the stability of the constituent banks and the banking sector as a whole.
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Dooley, Pamela A. "Examining Individual and Neighborhood-Level Risk Factors for Delivering Preterm." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1242748346.
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Johnson, Gary. "DEFINING RISK ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR USE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT COMMUNICATIONS." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2008. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2801.
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A review of the literature regarding risk management and effective risk communications identified that very few researchers have addressed risk assessment confidence levels when using risk scoring methods. The focus of this research is to develop a definition of risk assessment confidence levels for use in internal project management communications and to evaluate its usefulness. This research defines risk assessment confidence level as "The degree of certainty that the likelihood or consequence score (assigned by the risk assessor) reflects reality." A specific level of confidence is defined based on the types of analyses that were conducted to determine the risk score. A survey method was used to obtain data from a representative sample of risk assessment professionals from industry and academia to measure their opinion on the usefulness of the defined risk assessment confidence levels. The survey consisted of seven questions related to usefulness--four questions addressed the importance of stating confidence levels in risk assessments and three addressed the usableness of the proposed confidence level. Data were collected on the role and experience level of each of the respondents and the survey also included a comment section to obtain additional feedback. The survey generated 364 respondents representing a broad variety of roles associated with decision making and risk management with experience levels from fairly new to experienced risk assessors. The survey data were analyzed by calculating the proportion of respondents who gave negative, neutral and positive responses to the survey questions. An examination of the roles of the survey respondents indicated that no single group was dominant. A non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test generally failed to reject the hypothesis that the means of the survey response distributions were identical. There was one exception which indicated that there are differences based on role and by inspection of the responses, it appears that decision makers, academics, and others more strongly support the need for confidence level information to reduce the difficulty in making risk based decisions in projects. The survey responses at a confidence level of 95% have a range of errors from 3.84 to 4.97%. Based on the results of the survey, 77 – 83% of those surveyed indicated agreement that knowing the confidence the assessors have in their assessment is important and would improve a management decision. The survey showed that 60 – 86% of the respondents agreed that the confidence levels and their definitions as presented in the survey were usable. The question with the lowest agreement (60%) was related to the way in which the individual levels were defined. The ad-hoc comments provided in the survey were divided into eleven groups based on similarity of the subject of the comment and then examined for common themes. These added additional insight into the results and useful information for future research efforts. This research validates that the use of risk assessment confidence levels is considered to be useful in project risk management. The research also identified several potential areas for future work, including determining the appropriate number of confidence levels that should be defined, refining the definition of the individual confidence level definitions, examining historical perspectives of whether the risk assessments were accurate, examining the concept of shiftability of risk assessments, further research on communication of variability of risk assessments, and research into the usefulness of risk matrices.Ph.D.
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Engineering and Computer Science
Industrial Engineering PhD
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Wolff, Victoria H. "Storm smart planning for adaptation to sea level rise : addressing coastal flood risk in East Boston." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50122.
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Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2009.Includes bibliographical references (p. 67-69).
Regardless of how well we implement sustainability plans, now and in the future, the weight of scientific evidence indicates that mean sea level will continue to rise at an increasing rate over the next century. Thus, coastal lands and development lie in a precarious position, increasingly vulnerable to flood damage brought by storm surges and extreme weather events. In order to avoid disastrous losses of property, life, ecological health and social wellbeing, our cities and regions must quickly implement adaptation plans that consider plausible climate models. Coastal risk can be managed through rigid protections, soft landscape solutions, and land use decisions and regulations. In developing and implementing adaptation plans, it is important to understand the options and their applicability to different site contexts. Experts warn that today's once-in-a century flood will likely occur every two or three years by 2050!' However, Boston, like many other U.S. coastal cities, is in the early stages of devising adaptation plans that seek to reduce coastal flood risk from sea level rise. As implementation of adaptation plans may take several years or decades, Boston should act quickly to strategically consider its options. This thesis examines the effectiveness of different planning approaches to hazard mitigation in urban coastal areas and applies them to at-risk sites in East Boston under coastal flood scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. Two sites in East Boston, one with a soft edge and one with a hard edge, create two distinct urban landscapes for design solutions.
(cont.) A menu of planning solutions that has been collected from a review of the literature and best practices is then used to inform design solutions to these problems. By applying contemporary predictions for sea level rise and the problem-specific expertise of coastal management to the site-specific realm of land use planning, I hope to provide a precedent and method for planners, particularly in the Boston area, to seriously incorporate sea level rise predictions into community discussions, regulations, and comprehensive plan making.
by Victoria H. Wolff.
M.C.P.
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Jóhannsdóttir, Guðrún Elín. "Methods for Coastal Flooding Risk Assessments : An Application in Iceland." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-396970.
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Flood risk increases with rising sea levels and coastal settlements need to adapt to this increasing risk. For that, hazard and risk assessments are an important step. Coastal floods have caused problems in Iceland in the past and are thought to do so in the future as well. Therefore, a coastal flooding risk as- sessment needs to be made for Iceland. A risk assessment is currently in the early steps of preparation and a fitting method needs to be developed. To facilitate the process, an overview of the methods used in neighbouring countries is provided here and the suitability of the methods for Iceland is discussed. Building on these methods, a coastal flood scenario is produced for both present and future conditions as a preliminary hazard assessment for the country. The scenario produced is an upper bound scenario, highly unlikely but still possible. As a result, flooded areas are mapped and areas that need to be studied further in regard to flood hazard and risk are identified. It is shown that hazard estimation can be per- formed for Iceland through scenario production and that scenario results can be used in risk assessments.De nuvarande klimatförändringar i världen kommer påverka människor på många olika sätt. En av de många saker som förändras är havsnivån. Havsnivån har stigit allt snabbare sedan i början av 1900 talet och kommer nästan säkert att fortsätta stiga i flera århudraden. Förhöjda havsnivåer föl- jer ökad översvämningsrisk som vi måste anpassa oss efter (Church, Clark, et al., 2013). Därför är riskbedömningar, alltså systematiska förfarande för att värdera risk, viktiga så att passande förebyggande åtgärder kan användas för att minska negativa påverkan från havsöversvämningar. En bedömning av översvämningsrisk från havet fattas för Island men för närvarande förbereder Is- ländska Meteorologiska Byrån att genomföra en. En tillämplig method behövs hittas och för att un- derlätta arbetet beskrivas i denna rapport metoder för preliminära bedömningar av översvämningsrisk från några av Islands grannländer; Danmark, Norge, Sverige och Storbrittanien. I huvudsak använder alla dessa länder liknande metoder, även om de har olika fysiska förutsättningar. De använder statis- tiska återkomsttider från mareograf data och informationer om historiska översvämningar för att bedöma faran. Sårbarhet identifieras inom fyra sårbarhets klasser, ofta genom ett index. Till slut sammanställs faro- och sårbarhetskartor för att bedöma risken och utpeka områden med översvämningsrisk. Eftersom Island har inte tillräckligt mycket data för att använda samma metoder som grannländerna, produceras i den här rapporten ett scenario för att värdera översvämningsfaran. Scenariot bygger på idéer från grannländerna och ska vara osannolikt men möjligt. Det är beräknad för både nuvarande och framtida förhållanden. Genom att subtrahera landhöjden från scenario havsnivån är översvämningsdju- pet beräknat. Några områden vart vattnet sannolikt skulle flöda och måste vara grundligt forskade är identiferade. Många påverkande faktorer är inte inkluderade i scenariot och därför anger resultatet inte noggranna översvämningskartor utan grovt överblick över översvämningsfaran. Resultaten ger alltså en idé om vart faran från havsöversvämningar är som störst och i vilka områden framtidiga havsnivåförän- dringar kommer bli som största. De visar också att ett scenario kan användas för farobedömning på Island, som sen kan kombineras med sårbarhetsbedömning via en index för att bedöma översvämn- ingsrisken på samma sätt som i grannländerna.
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Britt-Rankin, Jo J. "University-level nutrition education improves nutrient intake and reduces disease risk /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2000. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9999276.
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Dorfman, Paul. "The performance of knowledge in the low level radiation risk debate." Thesis, University of the West of England, Bristol, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.422943.
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All nuclear plant discharge low-level radiation (LLR) to the environment. The problem that the thesis addresses is that of the definition of LLR risk. This thesis is a study of the nature of the LLR risk conflict, and how opposing views about LLR risk are brought to bear at both local and global levels. In other words, the thesis empirically explores the basis of this conflict by embedding a set of linked local risk controversy case studies within the global fundamental LLR risk scientific debate. My position is that risk and safety knowledge is conceived, produced, and deployed in particular ways. In this context, I have conflated the notions of conception, production and deployment of LLR risk knowledge by coining the neologism: the 'performance ofLLR risk'. To this end, the thesis has mapped out the performance of knowledge by and between actors/actants involved in the LLR risk debate. In other words, the thesis has attempted to explore (via case study research) the traces left by the pathways along which differing quantities and qualities of anthropogenic ionising radiation insults are delivered to differing receiving populations and individuals - and various responses to those insults. Further, (via the interrogation of a set of analytical themes) I have explored a number of meanings that adhere to fundamental experimental data. What is significant about elements of the fundamental institutional judgements, are their inherently subjective nature (in the context of complex, uncertain, indeterminate and latent phenomena). In practice, the end-points of these negotiations are institutionally reified as radiation protection risk factors, which are then translated into models of environmental management. Thus, somewhere along the continuum that stretches from fundamental science to rad-risk regulation 'on the ground', the statement 'LLR may be risky', is transformed into 'LLR is relatively safe'. The thesis problematises the appearance of closure (LLR is safe) as a unified truth that is reified in industrial and regulatory products, processes and procedures; by invoking the ANT concept of 'translation', whereby the disappearance of the network of contingent assumptions, negotiations, extrapolations, justifications and uncertainty that comprise that claim is replaced by a black-boxed knowledge construct that is patterned, disciplined, strong and durable. My primary conclusion is that, for the purposes of institutional radiation protection, fundamental epistemological scientific uncertainty about LLR risk knowledge is potentially problematically translated into regulatory certainty. In other words, I present evidence which suggests that the risk communication 'LLR is potentially risky' (via fundamental science) translates into 'LLR is acceptably safe' (for the purposes of radiation protection regUlation). Or more precisely, whilst the institutional radiation protection community remain unsure about the determination of LLR risk (because, at present, knowledge of the action ofLLR and the tools employed to determine that risk, are not sufficiently developed) - for regulatory radiation protection purposes LLR is assumed to be relatively safe. Thus, I argue that there exist profound uncertainty and indeterminacy about the (over)simp1ification of the complex and potentially problematic latent phenomena that comprise the institutional network LLR risk judgement. I contend that these risk definitions seem dependent on the relative strengths or weaknesses of the various natural and social associations that are corralled enrolled and mobilised. The powerful institutional network rests with the LLR safety claim. For counter groups a causative connection between chronic LLR discharge by nuclear facilities and childhood leukaemia clusters and increased cancer incidence in young people in communities near to those facilities remain phantom intermediaries - excluded and excised from the institutional LLR risk definition. However, evidence presented in this thesis problematises the institutional safety claim, and replaces it with another truth claim: that LLR may be unacceptably risky.
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Machuca, J. Raul. "Resilience Characteristics of Master's-Level Counseling Students." ScholarWorks@UNO, 2010. http://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/1272.
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Resilience characteristics typically have been studied among children and adolescents. A new line of research on resilience is focused on exploring the resilience characteristics of adults exposed to short and long-term adversity. In the present study, 585 master's-level counseling students responded to the Resilience Scale (Wagnild & Young, 1993). The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between counseling students' level of resilience and specific background variables (age, gender, marital status, ethnicity, education, income, employment, living situation, sexual orientation, and country of origin), counselor-education program variables (primary field of study, number of credits taken, academic status, professional affiliations, supervision status, counseling courses, role identification, and accreditation), and risk (poverty, natural disasters, and terrorism) and protective variables (perceived support, school expectations, and community involvement). The results of this study indicated that resilience characteristics and the overall resilience score were associated with background variables, risk and protective variables, and counselingtraining- program variables. The counseling-training-program variables examined were minimally correlated with participants' resilience characteristics or their resilience score. The results of this study offer support for the adoption of wellness-based assessments of counseling trainees, as opposed to measures of impairment. Suggestions are offered for counselor educators and supervisors regarding possibilities for fostering the resilience of counseling trainees as well as counseling practitioners.
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Moro, Regina R. "Examining predictors of reduction in drinking risk level among severe-risk trauma patients following a brief counseling intervention." Thesis, The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, 2013. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3563211.
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The purpose of this study was to identify potential predictors of alcohol screening and brief intervention outcomes for severe-risk drinkers. Specifically, age, gender, race, blood alcohol level, counseling intervention type, type of injury, hazardous alcohol use, symptoms of alcohol dependence and harmful alcohol use were examined to see whether the variables were able to predict reduction to low-risk levels among severe-risk participants. A total of 101 participants were included in this research study. The variables were collected at baseline via the screening process of the alcohol screening and brief intervention (ASBI) procedures. The AUDIT (Babor et al., 2001) instrument was utilized to gather the hazardous alcohol use, symptoms of alcohol dependence, and harmful alcohol use variables. The other variables were gathered from participant self report.
Two logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data in SPSS. The analysis indicated that one variable was statistically significant, blood alcohol level. The odds ratio of .993 suggested that for every one unit increase in blood alcohol level, a severe-risk participant was .993 times as likely to reduce their drinking to low-risk at six month follow-up. These findings show little support for the individual predictors examined within this analysis, which were all completed during the screening phase of the ASBI process. This lack of significance for individual predictors emphasizes the need for future research to examine the components of a successful brief counseling intervention.
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Lewinski, Christi Nicole. "The incidence of death among low-risk populations: a multi-level analysis." Thesis, Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/5971.
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This study utilized a multi-level model to examine the impact of religion as an occupation on mortality. Death certificate data were used to examine clergy mortality and compares them to census categorized professionals, counseling professionals and unmarried clergy. Individuals mortality exist in, and is influenced by the state they resided and died in. Because of this, they are not only examined on the individual level, they are also nested in their respective state of death. A series of hierarchical linear models were estimated in order to determine the effects of the different influence levels (individual and state). Findings suggest that clergy have a significant life advantage over professionals and counseling professionals. Married clergy have significant years of life disadvantage when compared to unmarried clergy. Implications of this research are discussed and considerations for future research are presented.
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Girard, Lina. "The Level of Service Inventory-Ontario Revision, risk/need assessment and recidivism." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0021/NQ46520.pdf.
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Share, Michelle. "Risk, responsibility and choice: food and eating in Irish second-level schools." Thesis, University of Ulster, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.494408.
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Röhrig, Maren Berit Kerstin [Verfasser]. "Farm-level risk analysis of German apple production / Maren Berit Kerstin Röhrig." Hannover : Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1172414483/34.
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Reigle, Jennifer A. "Development of an integrated project-level pavement management model using risk analysis." Morgantown, W. Va. : [West Virginia University Libraries], 2000. http://etd.wvu.edu/templates/showETD.cfm?recnum=1634.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2000.Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains xii, 210 p. : ill. (some col.). Vita. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 205-209).
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Olayinka-Bello, Folashade Z. "Differences in At-Risk Children's Preschool Assessment by Teachers' Level of Education." ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7054.
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Despite state requirements, standards, and recommendations from various early childhood agencies, huge differences exist in levels of education held by teachers of 4-year-olds in early childhood classrooms, which may affect the quality of service they offer to children as well as students' performance on assessments. This quantitative study determined whether significant differences existed between assessment scores of at-risk children taught by teachers with different levels of education and years of experience using standardized assessments (Teaching Strategies GOLD [TSG] and Phonological Awareness Literacy Screening [PALS]). The theoretical framework for this study was Bronfenbrenner's ecological theory of human development. Data were analyzed using a descriptive and 1-way multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). Pretest and posttest data were collected from an archived database of TSG and PALS assessment scores of 142 at-risk Prekindergarten 4 children who were taught by 18 different Prekindergarten 4 teachers at a local Head Start site. A 1-way MANOVA multivariate test indicated that assistant teachers' level of education was statistically significant at p = .012. A univariate 1-way ANOVA indicated that no statistically significant difference was found among the groups of dependent variables. It is recommended that attention be focused on teacher practice and teacher-child interaction backed with adequate professional development, rather than levels of education and experience. This study may support the hiring of committed teachers who can turn knowledge into practice and use data to inform their practice to unlock the potential of at-risk children.
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Archer, Debra Catherine. "Horse and management level risk factors for specific types of equine colic." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.440775.
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Wennersten, Lena. "Population-level consequences of variation." Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, NV, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-32522.
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Consequences of within population variation have recently attracted an increased interest in evolutionary ecology research. Theoretical models suggest important population-level consequences, but many of these predictions still remain to be tested. These issues are important for a deepened understanding of population performances and persistence, especially in a world characterized by rapid fragmentation of natural habitats and other environmental changes. I review theoretical models of consequences from intra population genetic and phenotypic variation. I find that more variable populations are predicted to be characterized by broader resource use, reduced intraspecific competition, reduced vulnerability to environmental changes, more stable population dynamics, higher invasive potential, enhanced colonization and establishment success, larger distribution ranges, higher evolvability, higher productivity, faster population growth rate, decreased extinction risk, and higher speciation rate, compared with less variable populations. To test some of these predictions I performed experiments and compared how different degree of colour polymorphism influences predation risk and establishment success in small groups. My comparisons of predation risk in mono- and polymorphic artificial prey populations showed that the risk of being eaten by birds does not only depend on the coloration of the individual prey item itself, but also on the coloration of the other members of the group. Two experiments on establishment success in small founder groups of Tetrix subulata pygmy grasshoppers with different degree of colour morph diversity show that establishment success increases with higher degree of diversity, both under controlled conditions in outdoor enclosures and in the wild. These findings may be important for re-stocking of declining populations or re-introductions of locally extinct populations in conservation biology projects. I report on remarkably rapid evolutionary shifts in colour morph frequencies in response to the changed environmental conditions in replicated natural populations of pygmy grasshoppers in fire ravaged areas. This finding 1 illustrates the high adaptive potential in a polymorphic species, and indicates the importance of preserved within-species diversity for evolutionary rescue. Finally, I review if theoretical predictions are supported by other published empirical tests and find strong support for the predictions that more variable groups benefit from reduced vulnerability to environmental changes, reduced population fluctuations and extinction risk, larger distribution ranges, and higher colonization or establishment success. In conclusion, my thesis illustrates how within-population variation influences ecological and evolutionary performances of populations both in the short and long term. As such, it emphasizes the need for conservation of biodiversity also within populations.
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Marinho, Niciane Bandeira Pessoa. "AvaliaÃÃo do risco para diabetes mellitus tipo 2 entre adultos de Itapipoca-CearÃ." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2010. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=5796.
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CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel SuperiorFundaÃÃo Cearense de Apoio ao Desenvolvimento Cientifico e TecnolÃgico
O diabetes mellitus tipo 2 à uma doenÃa de importÃncia crescente na saÃde pÃblica, jà que sua incidÃncia e prevalÃncia tÃm avanÃado de forma assustadora, sendo causada por uma combinaÃÃo de fatores genÃticos e estilo de vida. Em face disso, a saÃde pÃblica indica a prevenÃÃo primÃria para identificar os fatores de risco para DM2 e traÃar estratÃgias com vistas a evitar a exposiÃÃo ao risco, retardando ou impedindo o aparecimento da doenÃa. Objetivou-se avaliar o risco para o desenvolvimento do DM2 entre adultos de Itapipoca-CE. Trata-se de pesquisa quantitativa, com delineamento transversal e observacional, realizada no perÃodo de janeiro a marÃo de 2010, com 419 usuÃrios da EstratÃgia SaÃde da FamÃlia do municÃpio de Itapipoca-CE, com idades entre 20 e 59 anos. Para a coleta de dados aplicou-se um formulÃrio no qual se registraram dados sociodemogrÃficos e clÃnicos e o Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Os dados foram armazenados no Excel, sendo processados no Statistical Package for Science Social versÃo 18.0. O estudo foi aprovado pelo Comità de Ãtica em Pesquisa da Universidade Federal do Cearà sob protocolo 346/09. Dos 419 usuÃrios participantes, 88,1% eram do sexo feminino; a mÃdia de idade foi de 37 anos; 60,4% eram casados ou mantinham uniÃo estÃvel; 39,4% cursaram atà o ensino fundamental incompleto e 58,2% pertenciam Ãs classes econÃmicas D/E. Em relaÃÃo aos fatores de risco para DM2, 25,3% tinham idade ≥ 45 anos; 59,7% estavam com excesso de peso; 84% foram classificados em risco cardiovascular; 83,3% eram sedentÃrios; 53,7% relataram nÃo comer frutas e/ou verduras diariamente; 12,9% tomavam anti-hipertensivos; 5,3% mencionaram histÃria prÃvia de glicose alta e 47% histÃria familiar de DM2. Segundo observou-se, 5,2% da amostra foram classificados com hipertensÃo e apenas 0,7% com provÃvel diabetes. Quanto ao grau de risco para DM2, 24,6% estavam em baixo risco; 63% em risco moderado e 11,7% em alto risco. Entre os participantes com alto risco, 12,0% eram homens; 30,2% tinham idades ≥ 45 anos; 37,4 estavam com excesso de peso; 21,1% estavam em risco cardiovascular aumentado; 12,9% eram sedentÃrios; 14,7% nÃo comiam frutas/verduras diariamente; 31,5% tomavam anti-hipertensivos; 81,8% relataram histÃria de glicose alta e 23,9% histÃria familiar de DM2. Esse estudo abre portas para uma posterior pesquisa de intervenÃÃo no municÃpio, na qual os indivÃduos com alto risco para DM2 seriam acompanhados pelos profissionais de saÃde da ESF e dos NÃcleos de Apoio à SaÃde da FamÃlia, com orientaÃÃes quanto Ãs mudanÃas no estilo de vida, e com intervenÃÃes nos fatores de risco potenciais encontrados, objetivando reduzir ou retardar o aparecimento da doenÃa.
The type 2 diabetes mellitus is a disease of increasing importance in public health, since its incidence and prevalence have dauntingly advanced, and has been caused by a combination of genetic factors and lifestyle. In this view, public health indicates primary prevention to identify risk factors for T2DM and strategize in order to avoid exposure to risk by delaying or preventing the onset of the disease. The objective was to evaluate the risk for the development of T2DM among adults in Itapipoca town-CearÃ. It is a quantitative research with cross-sectional observational study conducted from January to March 2010, with 419 users of EstratÃgia SaÃde da FamÃlia (ESF) in Itapipoca town-CearÃ, the participants aged between 20 and 59 years. To collect data we applied a form in which demographic and clinical data and Finnish Diabetes Risk Score were registered. The data were stored in Excel, and processed in the Statistical Package for Social Science 18.0. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Federal University of CearÃ, under protocol 346/09. Out of the 419 participating users, 88.1% were female and the average age was 37 years, 60.4% were married or had common law-marriage, 39.4% attended to part of primary school and 58.2% belonged to lower social classes. Regarding risk factors for T2DM, 25.3% were aged ≥ 45 years, 59.7% were overweight, 84% were classified as cardiovascular risk, 83.3% were sedentary, 53.7% reported not eating fruit and / or vegetables daily, 12.9% were taking anti-hypertensive, 5.3% reported a previous history of high glucose and 47% had family history of T2DM. As observed, 5.2% of the sample were classified as having hypertension, and only 0.7% with probable diabetes. As for the risk levels for T2DM, 24.6% were at low risk, 63% in moderate risk and 11.7% at high risk. Amongst participants with high risk, 12.0% were men, 30.2% were aged ≥ 45 years, 37.4% were overweight, 21.1% were at increased cardiovascular risk, 12.9% were sedentary; 14.7% did not eat fruit / vegetables daily, 31.5% took antihypertensive drugs, 81.8% reported a history of high glucose and 23.9% had family history of T2DM. This study opens doors for further intervention research in the town, in which individuals at high risk for T2DM would be accompanied by health professionals from the ESF and the NÃcleos de Apoio à SaÃde da FamÃlia. With the aim to reduce or delay the onset of the disease, the individuals would be given guidance as to changes in lifestyle and interventions on potential risk factors found.
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Laurentz, Henrik. "Feasibility of using network support data to predict risk level of trouble tickets." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Programvara och system, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-128656.
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Internet Service Providers gather vast amounts of data in the form of trouble tickets created from connectivity related issues. This data is often stored and seldom used for proactive purposes. This thesis explores the feasibility of finding correlations in network support data through the use of data mining activities. Correlations such as these could be used for improving troubleshooting or staffing related activities. The approach uses the data mining methodology CRISP-DM to investigate typical data mining operations from the perspective of a Network Operation Center. The results show that correlations between the solving time and other ticket related attributes do exist and that support data could be used for the activities mentioned. The results also show that it exists a lot of room for improvement when it comes to data mining activities in network support data.
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Mubako, Grace Ngonidzashe. "THE EFFECTS OF CONTRASTS IN ACCOUNT-LEVEL FRAUD RISK ASSESSMENTS ON AUDITORS' EVIDENCE EVALUATION." OpenSIUC, 2012. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/dissertations/577.
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Evidence from research in psychology and auditor judgment has shown that perceptions that form early in a sequential judgment process can influence subsequent judgments. Auditing Standard 12 requires auditors to identify fraud risk factors and assess the risk of fraud as part of the process of assessing overall misstatement risk. While it is expected that fraud risk assessments should have a bearing on overall risk assessments, it is possible that perceptions formed from assessments of fraud risk can negatively affect the evaluation of any evidence reviewed thereafter. Because different classes of transactions may be affected by fraud risk factors in different ways, fraud risk assessments may differ across classes of transactions. These differences may make subsequent auditor judgments susceptible to the contrast effects bias, where subjects overreact to the differences such that the fraud risk assessments influence auditor judgment more than they should. This study examines whether auditors who learn that fraud risk is low for one class of transactions immediately after examining a class of transactions that has high fraud risk, can overreact to the contrast such that they reduce their sensitivity to evidence that suggests increased misstatement risk. The study also examines whether these contrast effects can be mitigated by acquiring information about fraud risk assessments later in the sequence of evidence, after auditors have reviewed and assimilated evidence related to other risks. The study finds that, as predicted, auditor judgments are influenced by contrast effects. Auditors who examined classes of accounts for which fraud risk assessments were different were less sensitive to evidence suggesting increased risk in accounts that had been identified as having low fraud risk. However, contrary to predictions, these contrast effects were not mitigated by evidence order.
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Grauers, Henning. "Risk, Rail and the Region : A spatial analysis of regional differences of infrastructural safety and the risk of accidents at Swedish level-crossings." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Kulturgeografiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-169509.
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Level-crossings, i.e. intersections where railways and road meet in the same vertical level, constitute risk for the users of respective infrastructure system. The aim of this thesis is to examine possible regional differences between the infrastructural safety standard of level-crossings in Sweden. With the use of spatial analyses tools in a Geographical Information System, the differences between Swedish counties are outlined and mapped. By the use of a logistic regression model, the variables that increase the risk of an accident in a level-crossings are analysed. The results show that the variables concerning the level of protection, together with the location on a highway, show statistical significance of being associated with an increased accidental risk. The results of the regression model factors have been returned to the GIS in order to find the most hazardous level-crossings. Considering the train flows and amount of people living in the proximity of the crossings, the hotpots of hazards have been spatially identified. 38 level-crossings with passive or semi-active warning system meet the criteria and should be the targets for practitioners’ work towards an increased level of safety and reduced risk.
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Remes, Roxana-Olivia. "Risk factors and outcomes associated with generalised anxiety disorder : findings from a large population study." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2019. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/287469.
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Scientific interest in the clinical implications, public health importance, and risk factors of anxiety disorders has grown substantially in the past two decades. Despite this, the evidence base on anxiety is insufficient to inform health care planning and policy-making. Further research on the outcomes and risk factors associated with anxiety disorders, and ways of mitigating these risks is needed. One of the aims of this thesis was to provide an overview of the existing literature on the prevalence of anxiety in adults living in countries across the globe, and to describe the prevalence in the context of various health states and life stages. Because generalised anxiety disorder is one of the most common psychiatric conditions in the population, the remainder of the thesis focused on this disorder and aimed to explore its links with health service use and mortality. Risk for this condition was also explored and area deprivation was studied as a possible determinant. Since depression is commonly studied alongside anxiety, the relationship between the residential environment and major depressive disorder was also assessed. Finally, to provide insight into the mitigation of risks of generalised anxiety disorder, a study of coping mechanisms was undertaken. Primary study findings from this thesis are based on the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer in Norfolk, a large, population study of British people over the age of 40. Results from the systematic review showed that anxiety is common in population sub-groups around the world, with women, younger people, and those suffering from chronic physical conditions, such as cancer and cardiovascular disease being particularly affected. Results from the primary studies of the thesis showed that generalised anxiety disorder is associated with increased risk for deaths, though it is not significantly associated with non-psychiatric hospital admissions. Results from the risk factor analyses showed that living in a deprived area is associated with generalised anxiety disorder in women and major depressive disorder in men. The risk mitigation analysis indicated that sense of coherence is an important coping mechanism that can protect against generalised anxiety disorder among women living in disadvantaged circumstances. My work has shown novel associations and attempted to provide a more complete picture of one of the most common psychiatric conditions in the population by focusing on several angles: health outcomes, risk factors, and ways of mitigating risks.
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Jayakody-Arachchige, Dhanapala. "Bayesian model for strategic level risk assessment in continuing airthworthiness of air transport." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2010. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/8073.
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Continuing airworthiness (CAW) of aircraft is an essential pre-requisite for the safe operation of air transport. Human errors that occur in CAW organizations and processes could undermine the airworthiness and constitute a risk to flight safety. This thesis reports on a generic Bayesian model that has been designed to assess and quantify this risk.
The model removes the vagueness inherent in the subjective methods of assessment of risk and its qualitative expression. Instead, relying on a transparent, structured mathematical process based on Bayes’ Theorem of conditional probabilities, the model yields a quantitative risk output expressed as a probability of error coupled with a probability of consequence based on data.
The Bayesian model has 184 nodes and 1138 parameters that define causal factors for error against which data is collected as either beliefs or evidence, the latter returning more reliable results. Beliefs could be gradually replaced with evidence as they become available, improving fidelity. The generic model can be modified by adding or truncating parameters to suit conditions applicable to specific organizations or similar groups.
The model was validated using field data from a cargo operator using large western jet freighters, covering 34,338 sectors of which 193 carried human error. Separate tests were performed simulating the operator’s belief that it was operating to global standards.
The output for belief was consistent with global and UK flat rate safety levels, achievable if the operator flew 3M and 6M sectors respectively according to their belief. However, the output from evidence returned a risk level more severe than the belief, partly driven by the allowance for unknowns built into the computing technique and part by the relatively small number of sectors considered. In “what-if” prediction mode the model calculates the change in risk level due to new errors, and through sensitivity analysis it can identify and rank performance indicators.
In CAW organizations subjected to Risk Based Oversight (RBO) concept and ICAO mandate on Safety Management System (SMS), the model can set risk threshold levels for individual organizations, to measure variations, and by continuous updating, to monitor safety performance at strategic level. Sharing data and with agreed performance levels, the Regulator and operators should be able negotiate an oversight plan. Using the model pro-actively, the organization could exercise a degree of self-regulation, thereby accruing cost benefits through reduced Regulator oversights.
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Szeto, Gin Nam. "Estimation of exposure level and infection risk of airborne virus in indoor environment /." View abstract or full-text, 2007. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?MECH%202007%20SZETO.
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Baugh, Nichole Kiyoko Ululani. "The effect of risk level and group size on student phonemic awareness achievement /." Auburn, Ala., 2005. http://repo.lib.auburn.edu/2005%20Fall/Dissertation/BAUGH_NICHOLE_38.pdf.
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Konagai, Rena. "Two studies of Japan-REIT performance : modeling risk and tracking property-level performance." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/54855.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2009.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 62-63).
This paper is intended to recognize the performance of REITs in Japan (J-REITs) by conducting two kinds of studies in a REIT-level and an underlying property-level: first, to do "factor loadings" that identify systematic risks of long run investment performance in J-REITs; second, to demonstrate "Pure Play Indices," segment-specific indices of REIT-based property market returns by tracking monthly REIT return data and property holding data. The first study employs the Fama-French three-factor model for monthly J-REIT returns from September 2001 to September 2008. This investigation upgrades past similar research with longer data periods in a two-stage regression (a time-series regression and a cross-sectional regression) for all the listed J-REITs. Nevertheless, the model results in a limited explanatory power for the J-REIT performance, probably due to too short a market history, as in the past research. The second study applies the Pure Play Indices, originally proposed by Geltner and Kluger [1995, 1998], to the J-REITs for office, residential, and retail segments since January 2006 when the J-REIT market became sizable enough for study. The developed Pure Play Indices perform similarly with the J-REIT return indices, except the Pure Play Residential Index during the down market due to the effect of non-target segments within the J-REITs. The reason for this effect will require a further study. As the market matures with more data accumulated, this two-fold study that shows demonstration of returns from J-REITs will become more valuable to derive risk of J-REITs and different types of information of properties.
by Rena Konagai.
S.M.
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Anandarao, Sudhir. "Application of the risk assessment methodology to level cross accidents on JR East." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39055.
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Thiessen, Uohna June. "The Role of Glucose Level on the Performance of the Framingham Risk Score." ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7842.
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Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are responsible for more deaths than any other disease, continue to threaten the quality of life for many, and is a major burden to the health care system. The Framingham Heart Study (FHS) identified the major CVD risk factors that became essential to effective CVD screening strategies and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is used to assess CVD risk. Based on the concepts of the health behavior model and CVD as a cardiometabolic disorder, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels and a CHD event, and to determine the value of FBG replacing a diagnosis of diabetes (DM2) in the FRS. The data set consisted of the 2,677 subjects of the FHS III cohort. In the univariate analysis, both DM2 and FBG were statistically significant (both p =.000), but the association was stronger for DM2, b = 2.138, OR = 8.483 (95% CI: 4.229, 17.105) than for FBG, b = .015, p = .000, OR=1.015 (95% CI: 1.009, 1.022). When adjusted for age, blood pressure, cholesterol, and smoking status, only DM2 remained statistically significant, OR = 2.295, p = .041, (95% CI: 1.035, 5.087) in the model. The FBG version of the FRS did not provide any improvement in performance, as it was marginally inferior to the DM2 version. Furthermore, the interactions between FBG and the metabolic risk factors were not statistically significant for this given data set. The results imply that a diagnosis of diabetes remains the factor of choice for inclusion in the FRS model for predicting the 10-year risk of CHD and replacing it with FBG provides little to no practical benefit. These findings support the use of CVD risk factor reduction and the use of effective screening tools in CVD prevention and promotion heart health.
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Iselin, Michael. "Estimating the Potential Impact of Requiring a Stand-Alone Board-Level Risk Committee." The Ohio State University, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1402311135.
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Bonham, Bradley K. "Understanding a College-Going Culture in the Secondary Level for At-Risk Students." University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1418312278.
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Nasiri, Sarvi Masoud. "Assessment of hip fracture risk by a two-level subject-specific biomechanical model." Elsevier, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1993/31139.
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Sideways fall-induced hip fracture is a major worldwide health problem among the elderly population. Biomechanical modeling is a practical way to study hip fracture risk. However, all existing biomechanical models for assessing hip fracture risk mainly consider the femur-related parameters. Their accuracy is limited as hip fracture is significantly affected by loading conditions as well. The objective of this study is to introduce a two-level subject-specific model to improve the assessment of hip fracture risk.
The proposed biomechanical model consists of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal femur finite element model, which are constructed from the subject’s whole-body and hip DXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) scan. The whole-body dynamics model is used to determine the impact force onto the hip during a sideways fall. Obtained load/constraint conditions are applied to the finite element model in order to determine the stress/strain distribution in the proximal femur. Fracture risk index is then defined over the critical locations of the femur using the finite element solutions.
It is found that hip fracture risk is significantly affected by the subject’s body configuration during the fall, body anthropometric parameters, trochanteric soft tissue thickness, load/constraint conditions, and bone mineral density, which are not effectively taken into account by currently available hip fracture discriminatory tools. Predicted hip fracture risk of 130 clinical cases, including 80 females and 50 males, by the proposed model reveals that biomechanical determinants of hip fracture differ widely from individual to individual. This study presents the first in-depth subject-specific model that provides a comprehensive, fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for assessing the hip fracture risk. The proposed model can be easily adopted in clinical centers to identify patients at high risk of hip fracture who may benefit from the in-time treatment to reduce the fracture risk.May 2016
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Eriksson, Marcus. "A Risk Assessment Analysis : The risk of saltwater intrusion into freshwater wells and the effects of a futuresea level rise on the Baltic Sea island of Öland." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-145319.
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Freshwater is essential for a functional society and the human well-being. However, it should not be taken for granted. Freshwater aquifers in coastal are subject to current and future risk of becoming saltwater contaminated – reaching a tipping point. Freshwater security on islands is vulnerable. The aim of this empirical study is to identify the effects of a 2-meter sea level rise and the current risk of well salinization at the Baltic Sea island of Öland, Sweden. A Geographical Information System (GIS) was used to conduct a quantitative risk assessment analysis. Natural and physical parameters affect the risk of intrusion into wells including hydrology, geomorphology, and climatology. Anthropogenic causes and climate change also add to the risk of salinization. However, they are not included in the quantitative study. The spatial distribution of the current risk is mapped in this study and can be used as a tool to identify wells at risk. Moreover, a future sea level rise has been visualized and show that 3% of all wells on the island will get directly inundated along with 5% of the total land area. Important land such as urban areas, nature reserves, and animal protection areas will get inundated including the loss of environmental and socio-economic values. A precautionary approach needs to be implemented in future planning since many wells are already at risk of salinization. The complexity of the problem is vast, and this study aims to fill the gaps in literature and previous research in a more multi-criterion way. Nevertheless, the political discussion urgently needs to address the topic and a mitigation and adaptation strategy must be on the agenda.
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Rozance, Mary Ann. "Recognizing and Addressing Risk Ambiguity in Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning: a Case Study of Miami-Dade County, Florida." PDXScholar, 2019. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4673.
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As coastal cities around the world identify and implement adaptations to sea level rise, they are faced with competing interests around what should be done and how to prioritize actions. Often, environmental problems--like confronting the challenge of sea level rise--are posed as requiring expert driven, technical solutions to identify and mitigate risks across the landscape. This framing, however, ignores the way in which diverse knowledge can help inform long-term planning horizons that address complex ways that sea level rise affects communities. The failure to integrate diverse knowledge into sea level rise adaptation can result in barriers to implementation and outcomes that can reproduce inequities. In environmental planning, knowledge integration challenges can stem from ambiguity around the construction of environmental risk knowledge, as well as institutional arrangements that inhibit diverse involvement. Ambiguity refers to a context in which there are different and sometimes conflicting views on how to understand the problem or system to be managed, for example, conflicts around what risks to measure and how to measure them. This manifests in the ways that different groups construct and use knowledge about risks. Often ignored in planning contexts and research on sea level rise adaptation, ambiguity--particularly around social risks--are critical to address, since they can determine whether diverse knowledge about risks are integrated or ignored in planning. This dissertation uses a case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida and is guided by the question: how do different groups understand risk within sea level rise, and what planning and governance factors influence the way diverse dimensions of risk are integrated into adaptation strategies? Findings from this case study suggest that baselines, projections, and the focus of risk rooted in an economic discourse based on short-term planning horizons and technical constructions of risk have more authority as compared with counter arguments around ecological and social risks. Recommendations include the need for transparent adaptation decisions and the inclusion of diverse stakeholders in the production of regional climate science, sea level rise assessments, and adaptation planning. A more integrated approach can better address diverse risks and facilitate long-term planning.
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Maina, Sandra. "Adaptation Preferences and Responses to Sea Level Rise and Land Loss Risk in Southern Louisiana: a Survey-based Analysis." FIU Digital Commons, 2014. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1424.
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Currently, southern Louisiana faces extreme land loss that could reach an alarming rate of about one football sized swath of land every hour. The combined effect of land subsidence and predicted sea level rise threaten the culture and livelihood of the residents living in this region. As the most vulnerable coastal population in Louisiana, the communities of south Terrebonne Parish are called to adapt by accommodating, protecting, or retreating from the impacts of climate change. For effective preparation planning, the state of Louisiana needs to 1) understand the adaptation preferences and responses of these residents and 2) involve these vulnerable communities in adaptation related decision making. The study uses a survey-based methodology to analyze current adaptation preferences. Findings suggest that protection is the preferred adaptation response. The present study additionally uses participatory techniques to develop a land loss awareness mobile application to illustrate the importance and benefits of community collaboration.
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Johansson, Anna. "Societal risk and safety management : Policy diffusion, management structures and perspectives at the municipal level in Sweden." Doctoral thesis, Karlstads universitet, Institutionen för hälsovetenskaper, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-27079.
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This compilation thesis investigates risk and safety management at the Swedish local governmentallevel. It sets special focus on municipal implementation of overall international and nationalstrategies and objectives regarding holistic, cross-sectorial and multi-strategic risk and safetywork, and the prevention of accidents and injuries. The overall aim for this thesis have been to empirically map and provide an overview of theadministrative structures for, and the prevailing management perspectives applied in the societalrisk and safety management in Sweden, as well as to study the diffusion of strategic intentions forthis area down to the municipal level. Three different sources constitute the thesis empirical base: two different set of official planningdocuments, written by Swedish municipal officials on commission of the local politiciansand one set of data from a survey investigation with municipal officials representing differentdepartments/functions. The documents were investigated using content analysis, while datafrom the survey were analyzed using statistical measures. This thesis provides through its empirical works an outlook on the general characteristics andarchetypical features of the Swedish local level’s administrative structures and managementperspective on risk and safety management; and proposes a municipal typology and a set of valuecharacters for allocation and institutionalization of risk and safety-tasks. This thesis also suggestsa conceptual framework for overviewing risk and safety management’s systemic steering elementsin its framework report. Based on the findings made, it seems as if the local level’s compliance tothe strategic level’s ambitions for the risk and safety area is hindered by practical implementationdifficulties and that much work remains in order to reach stated strategic objectives regardingholistic, inter-sectorial and multi-strategic management approaches, and preventive risk andsafety work.Baksidestext The compilation thesis investigates Societal Risk and Safety Management (SRSM) at the Swedish local governmental level. It sets special focus on municipal implementation of overall international and national strategies and objectives regarding holistic, cross-sectorial and multi-strategic risk and safety work, and prevention of accidents/injuries and promotion of safety. Three different sources constitute the thesis empirical bases: two different sets of official governmental planning documents, written by Swedish municipal officials on commission of the local politicians and one set of data from a survey investigation with municipal officials (n=1283), representing different administrative departments/functions within different municipalities. The official documents were investigated using content analysis methodology, while data from the survey were analyzed using various statistical investigations. This thesis suggests a conceptual and systemic model for SRSM’s contextual and analytical elements, and provides through its empirical works an overview of management perspectives and administrative structures applied, and it proposes a municipal typology and a set of value characters for allocation and institutionalization of SRSM-tasks locally.