Academic literature on the topic 'Liens en amont'

En France, les dispositifs des soins psychiques permettant une hospitalisation conjointe mère–bébé sont peu nombreux: une vingtaine d’unité d’hospitalisation temps plein (environ 60 lits) (dont 10 disposent d’hospitalisation de jour) et 6 unités d’hospitalisation de jour. L’Unité parents bébé du CH de Montfavet à Avignon est la plus ancienne et la plus importante (en termes de capacité d’accueil) de ces dernières. L’Unité Parents–Bébé du Centre Hospitalier de Montfavet est un dispositif global de prévention et de soin des troubles des premiers liens. Elle a pour objectif d’accompagner et de soigner des femmes et des hommes en difficulté dans leur processus de parentalité, de soutenir la construction des premiers liens entre parents et enfants, de prévenir et de soigner les conséquences de ces troubles chez l’enfant. Nous présenterons ici ses spécificités et les modalités de soin. Interventions les plus précoces possible (au cours de la grossesse ou en amont) en lien avec les professionnels de première ligne (Sage-femmes, gynécologues, « psys », pédiatres, PMI…). Consultations, psychothérapies, soins psychiques à médiation corporelle, accompagnement personnalisé en hospitalisation conjointe mère–bébé (voire père–bébé) à la journée, une à plusieurs fois par semaine. Soin en réseau personnalisé, attention portée à l’entourage familial et aux liens avec les professionnels autour de la famille, à la continuité dans le soin. L’UPB est aussi unité conseil ressource pour les grossesses et les naissances à risques psychiques bien identifiés par les professionnels de la région avec lesquels nous collaborons régulièrement (conseil auprès des professionnels libéraux et institutionnels, participation aux staffs médico-psycho-sociaux dans les maternités..)

The ultrastructure of two lines of nonmorphogenic <em>Plantago asiatica</em> callus was compared. The ultrastructure of most organelles of cream-coloured and green-coloured lines of these callus lines was similar. Among the plastides no difference in prevalence and composition of proplastides and amyloplasts was observed. The main difference lies in the presence of chlororoplasts in green callus. The phenomena of vacuolisation and tracheogenesis in both lines were found.

Le développement économique est associé à des changements des structures de production et d'exportation. Chaque pays maîtrise un ensemble de capacités, c'est-à-dire un ensemble de tâches et de connaissances nécessaires à la réalisation de certains produits. La maîtrise de capacités supplémentaires permet aux pays de produire des produits ou des technologies plus complexes. Comprendre le développement économique implique de comprendre comment les pays peuvent ajouter de nouveaux produits à leur panier de production et d'exportation et développer des industries particulières. Chaque industrie a des caractéristiques spécifiques en termes de capacités,de technologies et de connaissances et en termes de nature de leur production. Dans cette thèse, je fournis des évidences empiriques de l'importance des frontières et des liens entre les industries pour comprendre le changement structurel et la dynamique de la croissance économique. Le chapitre 2 propose une nouvelle méthodologie pour identifier les patrons d'organisation des industries et leur évolution dans le temps. Pour ce faire, j'analyse la structure de cluster du réseau de produits construit à partir de données d'exportation. Les résultats montrent que les produits se regroupent selon différents facteurs : leur complexité et leurs domaines technologiques, l'abondance de main-d’œuvre peu qualifiée ou des ressources naturelles dont ils ont besoin, ainsi que les chaînes de valeur mondiales et l'intégration verticale de leur processus de production. De plus, les résultats montrent que les domaines technologiques et les frontières entre les industries ne sont pas toujours clairs et peuvent évoluer avec le temps.Dans le chapitre 3, j'étudie la dynamique de la croissance économique en examinant les caractéristiques et les déterminants des transitions entre les différents régimes de croissance à moyen terme (croissance rapide, croissance lente et récession) en utilisant un modèle semi-markovien. Les résultats indiquent que l'effet du secteur manufacturier sur la croissance économique est loin d'être uniforme et que la mesure de la structure économique importe également. De plus, les clusters de produits ayant une intensité technologique similaire jouent un rôle différent dans la dynamique de la croissance, et les chaînes de valeur mondiales (CVM) peuvent expliquer certaines de ces différences. En outre, bien que l'industrie textile soit souvent considérée comme un tremplin vers l'industrialisation, dans cette étude, l'effet de ce cluster est négatif dans de nombreux cas. Enfin, cette analyse met en évidence la présence de «pièges de récession», largement induits par une plus grande spécialisation des clusters manufacturiers basés sur les ressources naturelles. Les différences entre les industries affectent non seulement le processus de croissance du fait d’écarts de productivité, mais aussi à travers la stimulation qu'elles fournissent au reste de l’économie par le biais de liens en amont et en aval. Le chapitre 4 examine l'impact des interconnexions entre les industries sur les performances économiques, en se concentrant sur la dynamique de la demande (c'est-à-dire les liens en amont). L’assouplissement de deux hypothèses fortes associées au calcul traditionnel du multiplicateur de production permet d'estimer le degré de réponse aux chocs de demande des industries fournisseurs. Les résultats montrent qu'il existe des différences significatives entre les industries et les pays. Les industries manufacturières, et en particulier les biens de consommation finale, ont tendance à être moins sensibles aux chocs de la demande par rapport aux services. Des différences importantes sont également observées entre les pays, car les industries manufacturières des pays développés ont tendance à être moins sensibles aux chocs de la demande que dans les pays en développement
Economic development is associated with changes in production and export structures. Each country masters a set of capabilities, i.e. a set of tasks and knowledge necessary for the realization of some products. Mastering additional capabilities allows countries to produce more complex products or technologies. Understanding economic development involves understanding how countries can add new products to their production and export basket and develop particular industries. Each industry has specific characteristics in terms of capabilities, technologies and knowledge and in terms of the nature of their production. In this thesis, I provide empirical evidence of the importance of both boundaries and linkages between industries to understand structural change and the dynamics of economic growth. Chapter 2 proposes a new methodology for identifying patterns of organization of industries and their evolution over time. To do this, I analyze the cluster structure of the product network built from export data. Results show that products cluster according to different factors: their complexity and technological domains, the abundance of low-skilled labor or of natural resources they require, as well as global value chains and vertical integration of their production process. Moreover, I find that technological domains and boundaries between industries are not always clear-cut and can evolve over time. In chapter 3, I study the dynamics of economic growth by examining the characteristics and determinants of transitions between different medium-term growth regimes (rapid growth, slow growth and recession) using a semi-Markov framework. Results indicate that the effect of the manufacturing sector on economic growth is far from uniform and that the measure of economic structure also matters. In addition, clusters with similar technological intensity play a different role in the dynamics of growth, and, global value chains (GVCs) may explain some of these differences. Furthermore, although the textile industry is often seen as a steppingstone to industrialization, in this study the effect of this cluster is negative in many cases. Finally, this analysis highlights the presence of “recession traps”, which are largely driven by a greater specialization natural resources-based manufacturing clusters. Differences between industries affect not only the growth process through productivity gaps, but also the stimulation they provide to the rest of the economy through upstream and downstream linkages. Chapter 4 examines the impact of inter-industry interconnections on economic performance,focusing on demand dynamics (i.e. backward linkages). I relax two strong assumptions associated with the traditional calculation of the output multiplier, which makes it possible to estimate the degree of response to demand shocks from the supplying industries. Results show that there are significant differences across industries and countries. Manufacturing industries, and in particular final consumer goods ones, tend to be less responsive to shocks in demand relative to services. Significant differences are also observed between countries since manufacturing industries in developed countries tend to be less sensitive to demand shocks than in developing countries

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor [L] Moench) was first introduced to the United States in the 1800s. These introductions consisted of tropical varieties with a short day photoperiod response that limited their use in temperate hybrid breeding programs. Commercial exploitation of F1 hybrids in grain sorghum started by the mid 1950s with the use of cytoplasmic male sterility system CMS (A1). Even though other CMS are available, most sorghum hybrid seed production still relies on the A1 system. Genetic gain in most agronomic crop species is limited by several factors. In the specific case of sorghum, the uniform use of the CMS (A1) system and the recent introduction of sorghum to the United States have resulted in a reduction of its genetic base. In order to create enough genetic variability, plant breeders might utilize exotic non adapted material, exotic adapted material or existing elite material as a source of new alleles that will protect and improve genetic gain through selection. This study provides an estimate of the genetic diversity existing in a set of sorghum conversion lines. The objectives of this study were: (1) to estimate the genetic diversity present among a set of 16 sorghum conversion lines; (2) to classify this set of lines based on genetic similarities estimated using AFLP markers and (3) to estimate heterosis, general and specific combining ability for grain yield among the set of conversion lines. Genetic diversity was present in the set of conversion lines evaluated. For the lines included only in this study, Caudatum was the most homogenous race (average GS = 0.69), and this race was closely related to the Durra race (Average GS = 0.66). Two other homogenous races were Bicolor and Kafir with average GS of 0.67. Highest GCA effects were obtained from the Kafir and Caudatum races. Good heterotic responses were obtained from DurraKafir races and CaudatumKafir races. Estimation of SCA, MPH and BPH identified specific crosses that were numerically superior than those of the checks. The use of AFLP markers allowed the identification of five strong clusters through estimates of genetic similarities. This classification did not group the lines by either their genetic background or their fertility reaction. This study provides information to identify specific combinations that would help to understand heterotic relationships in sorghum, and support the suggestions made by Menz and Gabriel that races in sorghum are not well defined.

Thesis (Ph.D.) -- La Trobe University, 2005.
Submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the Zoology Dept., School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, Technology and Engineering. Research. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 133-152). Also available via the World Wide Web.

Storytelling holds a significant place in peace education and dialogue work with young people in Israel/Palestine, reflecting the popularity of the dual narrative approach as a framework for understanding the conflict. The approach is predicated on the assumption that there are two competing national narratives that have collided in the same geographical space, with young people only able to come to terms with the ‘other’ narrative through a process of concession and compromise, mediated by adults. Recognising the constraints and limitations of the dual narrative approach, my thesis focuses on the lives of Israeli and Palestinian youth who inhabit a border of some kind (physical, linguistic, ethnic, or intergenerational) and analyzes how stories are transmitted across and influenced by such boundaries. Special attention is given to traumatic histories that carry a social taboo, such as the Nakba in Israeli society and the Holocaust in Palestine, and how young people may develop and express their conceptions of community, belonging, and exclusion through storytelling. The research is grounded in ethnographic fieldwork and practical storytelling workshops conducted over sixteen months in Israel/Palestine (March 2014 to July 2015), with various methods of narrative inquiry forming the basis for data analysis, notably Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). The thesis is divided into four chapters, which are based on the dominant themes that emerged through fieldwork. ‘Language and the Hidden Landscape’ is an applied linguistic analysis of how young people living in segregated communities imagine and narrate places that are off-limits to them. ‘Violence in the Narration of Self and Other’, an examination of the violence inherent in face-to-face storytelling that is grounded in the phenomenological theory, discusses how the storytellers deal with violence through narrative, their depiction of members of the ‘other’ community’, and the more disturbing and potentially violent functions of storytelling in peace education for youth. ‘Forbidden Histories in Contested Spaces’ unpicks the shadowy interweave between Holocaust and Nakba memory, while ‘Happily Ever After?’ examines how the narrators view and construct endings – both for the conflict, and in their narratives. These themes bring together time, place, and inhabitants’ interaction with place and memory, resulting in a more complex and nuanced understanding of how young people growing up with intractable conflict use storytelling to interpret their histories and make sense of their lives in the present day, as well as the ways in which stories may interact even in a highly polarized and segregated society. In conclusion, the role of storytelling with children in conflict zones is re-evaluated, with the research suggesting that there needs to be a shift in emphasis from storytelling as a means of therapy to storytelling as a social and political act, a means of enabling young people to take a more active role in community-building, rehabilitation, and ultimately reconciliation.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Florida, 2005.
Typescript. Title from title page of source document. Document formatted into pages; contains 50 pages. Includes Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

A travers l'étude de l'engagement étudiant au sein d'un parti politique libanais, le Courant patriotique Libre (CPL), ce travail explore les dynamiques de production de l'attachement et de constitution des groupes sociaux au sein d'une société plurielle. Un groupe peut être heuristiquement défini dans une perspective cognitive et performative: le sentiment d'appartenance serait construit par et manifesté dans un double processus d'allocation de signification et d'incarnation d'un rôle dans les interactions. A cet égard, la narrativité, parce qu’elle est à la fois action de mise en représentation et assignation de sens, constitue un des modes de construction et de réalisation privilégiés du lien social. Dans la société plurielle libanaise, appartenir à un groupe partisan signifie rejoindre une communauté d'interprétation, au sein de laquelle il est possible de distinguer analytiquement trois dimensions du processus de socialisation, recourant chacune à un ressort narratif: la médiation, l'incorporation, et l'intégration. Le détour par l'analyse de la narration de l’attachement permet ainsi de dégager les caractéristiques du lien partisan dans le Liban pluriel contemporain, fondé sur l'affactivité et l'activation de frontières identitaires produites dans et par l'interaction
"A Recited Community: Figures of an Identity Foretold" looks at the processes of social identification among the youth in plural Lebanon. Ravaged by a fifteen year civil war between 1975 and 1990, this small Middle-Eastern country has become the symbol of divided societies. Through the exploration of student activism in a political party, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the book questions the dynamics of attachment, conflict, and reconciliation in a shattered country. Using original material collected during several years of fieldwork conducted in three of Beirut’s main universities, the author examines the importance of narratives inherited from the past to make sense of social world and sustain one’s sense of belonging. The focus on this narrative construction of group attachment allows portraying of three main features of affiliation in a plural society like Lebanon. First, the mobilization of conflicting storylines that create boundaries and mediate the relation of the individual with the others in the time and space of social interactions. Then, the incorporation of institutionalized collective tales and practices as modes of representation of reality. And finally, the integration of the self in the horizon of a collective memory that allows the insertion within a common emplotment of the multiplicity of members’ biographical experiences into a shared depiction of the past conflicts. Mediation, incorporation, and integration all emerge from and actualize the duality between ipseity and alterity, reminding us that the other is the condition of recognition, thus of existence, of the self

This thesis explores the pedagogical potential of images shared during intra-professional conversations held on the social media platform, Twitter. Twitter chats are loosely synchronous exchanges of tweets sharing a unique, identifying keyword or hashtag. They are increasingly being used among professionals to create professional networks in which practice-knowledge and opinion might be shared and where communal connections may be created. As such, they may serve as sites in which professional learning unfolds, both in relation to workplace practices and in relation to the development of new forms of professional practice around social media use. Because the exchanges and broadcasts on Twitter are, for the most part, public, and the conversations are ongoing, they also provide open, freely-accessible, and constantly renewing resources for use in pre-service learning contexts. The research focused on two example chats, one held among midwives and the other among teachers. Inspired by the increasing use of images in new forms of digital communication, the research used images tweeted during the chats as starting points from which to explore flows of knowledge and affect. Data were generated from observations of the two Twitter chats over extended periods, together with interviews with practising professionals, student professionals and their educators in which images were used as elicitation devices. The research combined an approach to reading and “being with” data inspired by ideas drawn from the work of Deleuze (1994; Williams 2013) and Deleuze and Guattari (1988; Massumi 1992), with approaches to reading images drawn from visual social semiotics (Kress and van Leeuwen 1996). The findings suggest that Twitter chats such as those studied here can provide rich opportunities for professional learning. Practice knowledge can flow from one participant to many others, and flows of affect can be used to remoralize individuals and communities. Both chats seemed to serve as sites in which professionals could experience a positivity and affirmation that was not always available in the workplace. However, the forces and intensities at play in these spaces influence both what is said and what is not said, creating new norms of online interaction that generally seemed to avoid negative comments or open disagreement. Educators saw potential to use images such as those shared in the chats in a variety of ways. For example, images could be used as prompts for examination and critique of practices. The educators I interviewed also suggested that the images could be used to help student professionals develop their sensitivity to the forces and intensities that produce particular practices. Group interviews with student professionals suggested that the former happened spontaneously when students encountered and discussed such images, but that the latter might need deliberate facilitation or prompting. The thesis concludes with some recommendations for: (i) educators considering using such images in pre-service professional learning; (ii) professional developers considering using Twitter chats; and (iii) policy-makers involved in drafting guidelines for professionals’ use of social media.

At Cape Gantheaume, Kangaroo Island (South Australia), adult male, lactating female and juvenile New Zealand (NZ) and Australian fur seals regularly return to the same colony, creating the potential for intra- and inter-specific foraging competition in nearby waters. I hypothesised that these demographic groups would exhibit distinct foraging strategies, which reduce competition and facilitate their coexistence. I analysed the diet of adult male, adult female and juvenile NZ fur seals and adult male Australian fur seals and studied the diving behaviour of adult male and lactating female NZ fur seals and the at-sea movements of juvenile, adult male and lactating female NZ fur seals. Female diet reflected that of a generalist predator, influenced by prey availability and their dependant pups� fasting abilities. In contrast, adult male NZ and Australian fur seals used larger and more energy-rich prey, most likely because they could more efficiently access and handle such prey. Juvenile fur seals primarily utilised small lantern fish, which occur south of the shelf break, in pelagic waters. Juveniles undertook the longest foraging trips and adult males conducted more lengthy trips than lactating females, which perform relatively brief trips in order to regularly nurse their pups. Unlike lactating females, some adult males appeared to rest underwater by performing dives that were characterised by a period of passive drifting through the water column. The large body sizes of adult males and lactating females facilitated the use of both benthic and pelagic habitats, but adult males dived deeper and for longer than lactating females, facilitating vertical separation of their foraging habitats. Spatial overlap in foraging habitats among the age/sex groups was minimal, because lactating females typically utilised continental shelf waters and males used deeper water over the shelf break, beyond female foraging grounds. Furthermore, juveniles used pelagic waters, up to 1000 km south of the regions used by lactating females and adult males. The age and sex groups in this study employed dramatically different strategies to maximise their survival and reproductive success. Their prey and foraging habitats are likely to be shaped by body size differences, which determine their different physiological constraints and metabolic requirements. I suggest that these physiological constraints and the lactation constraints on females are the primary factors that reduce competition, thereby facilitating niche partitioning.

In the current socio-cultural scenario, the implementation of the university reform aimed at boosting third-level education calls for meditation within the discipline of Architectural Technology (ICAR 12). This review must address the research topics and academic profiles of PhD courses in the Technological Area, also in terms of fostering actions consistent with European strategic lines for the promotion of a knowledge society. Research, innovation, creativity and design are the keywords of this scenario that PhD students and lecturers must bear in mind when considering three fields of study: environmental design and landscape, building production and construction and works and services strategic for the community. This book "Research among innovation, creativity and design" develops the topics addressed during the VII OSDOTTA workshop (the network of PhD courses in the field of Architectural Technology) held at the Mantua campus of Milan Polytechnic on 15th-16th-17th September 2011.

“This book offers an account of the life of Shibusawa Eiichi, who may be considered the first ‘internationalist’ in modern Japan, written by his great grandson Masahide and published in 1970 under the title, Taiheiyo ni kakeru hashi (Building Bridges Over the Pacific). Japan had a tortuous relationship with internationalism between 1840, when Shibusawa was born, and 1931, the year the nation invaded Manchuria and when he passed away. The key to understanding Shibusawa’s thoughts against the background of this history, the author shows, lies in the concept of ‘people’s diplomacy,’ namely an approach to international relations through non-governmental connections. Such connections entail more transnational than international relations. In that sense, Shibusawa was more a transnationalist than an internationalist thinker. Internationalism presupposes the prior existence of sovereign states among which they cooperate to establish a peaceful order. The best examples are the League of Nations and the United Nations. Transnationalism, in contrast, goes beyond the framework of sovereign nations and promotes connections among individuals and non-governmental organizations. It could be called “globalism” in the sense that transnationalism aims at building bridges across the globe apart from independent nation-states. In that sense Shibusawa was a pioneering globalist. It was only in the 1990s that expressions like globalism and globalization came to be widely used. This was more than sixty years after Shibusawa Eiichi’s death, which suggests how pioneering his thoughts were.” [Akira Iriye]

The conversation focuses on the role of extreme weather conditions and the vulnerability to weathering in Vajiko Chachkhiani’s work, especially in the piece Living Dog Among Dead Lions, which was presented at the 57th Venice Biennale in 2017.

Over the six months in which Vajiko Chachkhiani’s Living Dog Among Dead Lions was exhibited at the Georgian Pavilion at the 57th Venice Biennale in 2017, heavy rain was pouring inside the installation. This artificially generated process provokes thoughts on the nature of the here and now as well as of the afterlife and of the future appearance of the hut’s water-sensitive insides. Eventually, the spaces and furniture exposed to rain and water stagnation will begin to rot and disintegrate, and mould and moss might grow over them. Its viewers feel caught between what they see and what they hope to see; between their perceptions and expectations, in an exceptional time zone where ‘natural’ weathering is being performed as a subject of meditative observation.

We estimated combining ability of inbred corn lines by a trait amount of seeds from a cob’. Amount of seeds from a cob is one of the important traits for plant selection with a purpose to increase their yield. Prevalence of additive effects of gens in a control of this trait is noted. We revealed lines with low and high meanings of combining ability by an amount of seeds from a cob.

Common sunflower is an entomophilous crop; therefore, the presence of pollinating insects is necessary for the realization of the potential productivity of plants. Nectar is the main attractant of sunflower. In this work we determined the nectar bearing capacity and sugar content (dry matter content) of nectar in tubular flowers of various sunflower genotypes using microcapillary tubes with an inner diameter of 0.25 mm and an outside diameter of 0.50 mm. We noted the maximum amount of nectar in a line of genetic collection MVG-8 – 0.32 mg/flower. We observed the maximum value of sugar content in hybrids NK Brio and Factor – 61 and 57 %, respectively. The Oksi hybrid had the minimum values in the amount of 0.11 mg/flower and 21 % of the nectar sugar content.

On the occasion of the centenary of the First World War, remembered across the world from 2014 until the end of 2018, many aspects and experiences of this global conflict have been re-examined or brought to light for the first time, as we honour the memory of those estimated 16 million soldiers and civilians who perished in what was then known as the ‘Great War’, or the ‘War to End All Wars’. So many of these died on the infamous fields of Flanders, where Allied and Central Forces dug themselves into trenches for the better part of four years. Over the past few years, new research has brought to light many insights into the plight of animals in this War, which – for the younger readers amongst you – was fought at the dawn of motorised warfare, using anything powered by two or four feet or paws, from the homing pigeons delivering secret messages across enemy lines, to the traction provided by oxen and mules to pull cannons and other heavy artillery, to the horses of the cavalry. Not least among these roles was the supply of animal protein to the troops, whether this came through the specific designation of animals for this purpose or as the result of a failed attempt at delivering any of the above services. Several leading publications today have documented the role (and suffering) of animals in ‘La Grande Guerre’. Less so the role of veterinarians in the ‘War to End All Wars’. Who were they? How many? How were they organised? What did they do, on either side of the enemy lines? The present article is a humble attempt to shed some light on these veterinary colleagues, based on available, mostly grey, literature…

This study is the latest in a series monitoring the evolution of poverty, based on data gathered by The ESRI in the Living in Ireland Surveys since 1994. These have allowed progress towards achieving the targets set out in the National Anti Poverty Strategy since 1997 to be assessed. The present study provides an updated picture using results from the 2000 round of the Living in Ireland survey. The numbers interviewed in the 2000 Living in Ireland survey were enhanced substantially, to compensate for attrition in the panel survey since it commenced in 1994. Individual interviews were conducted with 8,056 respondents. Relative income poverty lines do not on their own provide a satisfactory measure of exclusion due to lack of resources, but do nonetheless produce important key indicators of medium to long-term background trends. The numbers falling below relative income poverty lines were most often higher in 2000 than in 1997 or 1994. The income gap for those falling below these thresholds also increased. By contrast, the percentage of persons falling below income lines indexed only to prices (rather than average income) since 1994 or 1997 fell sharply, reflecting the pronounced real income growth throughout the distribution between then and 2000. This contrast points to the fundamental factors at work over this highly unusual period: unemployment fell very sharply and substantial real income growth was seen throughout the distribution, including social welfare payments, but these lagged behind income from work and property so social welfare recipients were more likely to fall below thresholds linked to average income. The study shows an increasing probability of falling below key relative income thresholds for single person households, those affected by illness or disability, and for those who are aged 65 or over - many of whom rely on social welfare support. Those in households where the reference person is unemployed still face a relatively high risk of falling below the income thresholds but continue to decline as a proportion of all those below the lines. Women face a higher risk of falling below those lines than men, but this gap was marked among the elderly. The study shows a marked decline in deprivation levels across different household types. As a result consistent poverty, that is the numbers both below relative income poverty lines and experiencing basic deprivation, also declined sharply. Those living in households comprising one adult with children continue to face a particularly high risk of consistent poverty, followed by those in families with two adults and four or more children. The percentage of adults in households below 70 per cent of median income and experiencing basic deprivation was seen to have fallen from 9 per cent in 1997 to about 4 per cent, while the percentage of children in such households fell from 15 per cent to 8 per cent. Women aged 65 or over faced a significantly higher risk of consistent poverty than men of that age. Up to 2000, the set of eight basic deprivation items included in the measure of consistent poverty were unchanged, so it was important to assess whether they were still capturing what would be widely seen as generalised deprivation. Factor analysis suggested that the structuring of deprivation items into the different dimensions has remained remarkably stable over time. Combining low income with the original set of basic deprivation indicators did still appear to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation as a result of prolonged constraints in terms of command over resources, and distinguished from those experiencing other types of deprivation. However, on its own this does not tell the whole story - like purely relative income measures - nor does it necessarily remain the most appropriate set of indicators looking forward. Finally, it is argued that it would now be appropriate to expand the range of monitoring tools to include alternative poverty measures incorporating income and deprivation. Levels of deprivation for some of the items included in the original basic set were so low by 2000 that further progress will be difficult to capture empirically. This represents a remarkable achievement in a short space of time, but poverty is invariably reconstituted in terms of new and emerging social needs in a context of higher societal living standards and expectations. An alternative set of basic deprivation indicators and measure of consistent poverty is presented, which would be more likely to capture key trends over the next number of years. This has implications for the approach adopted in monitoring the National Anti-Poverty Strategy. Monitoring over the period to 2007 should take a broader focus than the consistent poverty measure as constructed to date, with attention also paid to both relative income and to consistent poverty with the amended set of indicators identified here.

The learning crisis in many developing countries has led to searches for innovative teaching models. Adoption of innovation, however, disrupts routine and breaks institutional inertia, requiring government employees to change their way of working. Introducing and embedding innovative methods for improving learning outcomes within state institutions is thus a major challenge. For NGO-led innovation to have largescale impact, we need to understand: (1) what factors facilitate its adoption by senior bureaucracy and political elites; and (2) how to incentivise district-level field staff and school principals and teachers, who have to change their ways of working, to implement the innovation? This paper presents an ethnographic study of Pratham, one of the most influential NGOs in the domain of education in India today, which has attracted growing attention for introducing an innovative teaching methodology— Teaching at the Right Level (TaRL) – with evidence of improved learning outcomes among primary-school students and adoption by a number of states in India. The case study suggests that while a combination of factors, including evidence of success, ease of method, the presence of a committed bureaucrat, and political opportunity are key to state adoption of an innovation, exposure to ground realities, hand holding and confidence building, informal interactions, provision of new teaching resources, and using existing lines of communication are core to ensuring the co-operation of those responsible for actual implementation. The Pratham case, however, also confirms existing concerns that even when NGO-led innovations are successfully implemented at a large scale, their replication across the state and their sustainability remain a challenge. Embedding good practice takes time; the political commitment leading to adoption of an innovation is often, however, tied to an immediate political opportunity being exploited by the political elites. Thus, when political opportunity rather than a genuine political will creates space for adoption of an innovation, state support for that innovation fades away before the new ways of working can replace the old habits. In contexts where states lack political will to improve learning outcomes, NGOs can only hope to make systematic change in state systems if, as in the case of Pratham, they operate as semi-social movements with large cadres of volunteers. The network of volunteers enables them to slow down and pick up again in response to changing political contexts, instead of quitting when state actors withdraw. Involving the community itself does not automatically lead to greater political accountability. Time-bound donor-funded NGO projects aiming to introduce innovation, however large in scale, simply cannot succeed in bringing about systematic change, because embedding change in state institutions lacking political will requires years of sustained engagement.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.