To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Linear ARDL.
Journal articles on the topic 'Linear ARDL'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 50 journal articles for your research on the topic 'Linear ARDL.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Obiora, Peters Emeka PhD. "Exploring the Symmetric and Asymmetric Effect of Fuel Subsidy Removal on the Income Per Capita in Nigeria." Journal of Economics, Finance And Management Studies 08, no. 01 (2025): 323–34. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14649875.
Full textAbstract:
This study makes unique contributions by exploring the investigation of the linear and non-linear effects of fuel subsidy removal on the per capita income of individuals in Nigeria. This gap serves as the motivation for conducting this research. This study's broad objective is to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of fuel subsidy removal on income per capita, adjusting for inflation, government spending, and the poverty rate in Nigeria. The results of the unit root test suggest that the econometrics analyses of linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL are appropriate for this study. The fitted linear ARDL (2, 2, 0, 1, 0) and non-linear ARDL (1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0) indicate that the removal of fuel subsidies has both symmetric and asymmetric effects on per capita income, while increases in inflation, government spending, and poverty rates lead to a decline in per capita income in the country. Thus, while it is important for the government to remove fuel subsidies to unveil fraud surrounding fuel subsidy payments and enhance infrastructural development in the country, the government should ensure that appropriate palliatives are made available to cushion the subsidy removal effect that could affect the livelihood of the poor citizens and also implement effective monetary policies to combat inflation.
2
Koyuncu, Cuneyt, Mustafa Unver, and Muhammed Veysel Kaya. "Asymmetric Short-Run and Long-Run Impact of Economic Globalization on Crop Production in Turkiye." Romanian Agricultural Research 40 (2023): 687–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.59665/rar4064.
Full textAbstract:
This study explores short-run and long-run relationship between economic globalization and crop production in Turkiye by utilizing linear and nonlinear ARDL models for two distinct indicators of crop production. Based on linear and nonlinear ARDL bound tests, the relevant variables are co-integrated and hence they move together in the long run. Economic globalization and crop production possess statistically significant positive association in the long run in linear ARDL models. On the other hand, short-run and longrun symmetry test results disclose that the relationship of economic globalization and crop production in the short-run and long-run is asymmetric. According to the estimation findings, positive and negative changes in economic globalization augment crop production. Meanwhile several tests were conducted to check the statistical validity and robustness of our findings. The results of those diagnostic tests show that neither linear ARDL models nor nonlinear ARDL models incorporate problems in the sense of non-normality, autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, model misspecification, and parameter instability.
3
Kayongo, Allan, Asumani Guloba, and Joseph Muvawala. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Monetary Policy in Emerging Countries: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach in Uganda." Applied Economics and Finance 7, no. 5 (2020): 24. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v7i5.4928.
Full textAbstract:
Many money demand studies have been carried out on Uganda, however, these studies perceive and incorporate exchange rate as a linear determinant of real money demand. Indeed, exchange rate may have asymmetric effects on real money demand; with exchange rate appreciation having different effects from exchange rate depreciation. Therefore, this is the first study to estimate exchange rate asymmetries in Uganda, for the period 2008Q3 and 2018Q4. The study uses both the linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL methodologies to accomplish its goal. This is also done by incorporating an economic uncertainty index, which is critical, especially in light of the novel global coronavirus pandemic, that has disrupted trade, movement and supply chains. The error correction terms of both models are negative and significant, with the one of the non-linear ARDL twice as much as that of the linear ARDL. Indeed, the study confirms the existence of exchange rate asymmetries on Uganda’s real money demand. In the linear ARDL model, exchange rate has a positive effect in the long run but a negative result in the short run. On one hand, the non-linear ARDL model reveals that an exchange rate depreciation of the Uganda Shillings negatively affects real money demand in the short run. On the other hand, an exchange rate appreciation positively effects real money demand. Notably, economic uncertainty has insignificant effects in both models, except for its lags in the non-linear model. The implication of these findings is that macro-economic policy management in Uganda should be cognizant of these asymmetric effects of exchange rate, for effective planning, policy and implementation.
4
Rasaki, Mutiu G., and Elizabeth O. Oyedepo. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in Nigeria." Journal of Enterprise and Development 5, no. 3 (2023): 398–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.20414/jed.v5i3.7192.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose — This study assesses the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in Nigeria.Method — The study employs quarterly data and covers the period 1995q1 to 2020q4. The data were sourced from International Financial Statistics (IFS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) websites. The paper applies both linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models. These methods are employed to evaluate the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility.Result — The results from linear ARDL model show that exchange rate volatility has only significant short-run effect on export while it has both short-run and long run effects on the imports. The findings from the non-linear ARDL suggest that exchange rate volatility has neither short run nor long run asymmetric effects on exports. However, the non-linear ARDL model reveals short run and long run asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on imports. The findings show that increase in volatility reduces imports while decrease in volatility boosts imports.Contribution — Previous studies have only investigated the symmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Nigeria. This study contributes to the literature by examining the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, using the GARCH-based measure of exchange rate volatility.
5
Turgutlu, Evrim, and Pınar Narin Emirhan. "Dynamics of Causality between Real Estate and Stock Prices: Evidence from Türkiye." Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Arastirmalari Dergisi 10, no. 1 (2025): 127–39. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1599083.
Full textAbstract:
This paper aims to examine the causal relationship between real estate and stock prices in Türkiye over the 2010-2023 period and uncover whether the wealth effect or the credit price effect has been dominant. This study investigates the association between real estate prices and stock prices in Türkiye using both linear and non-linear ARDL cointegration models. A recently developed non-linear ARDL technique by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) is employed to investigate possible asymmetric relationships between real estate and stock prices. Linear ARDL bounds test results indicate strong evidence of wealth effect for Türkiye. The findings of the non-linear ARDL technique reveal that there is a strong asymmetric association between real estate and stock prices in Türkiye and there is evidence of the existence of both wealth and credit price effects. The asymmetric association is more dominant in the credit price effect model. The findings of the study will help both investors and policymakers to establish effective policies for developing portfolios considering the asymmetric associations and provide a better understanding of the driving forces behind real estate prices.
6
Shazia Sana, Shahnawaz Malik, Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, and Muhammad Hanif Akhtar. "Money Demand Balances and Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis." Journal of Business and Social Review in Emerging Economies 6, no. 4 (2020): 1389–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jbsee.v6i4.1449.
Full textAbstract:
This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on the money demand balances in Pakistan by applying linear and non-linear ARDL approach. The purpose of study is not only examining the impact of exchange rate and demand for money but also to analyze that whether demand for money in Pakistan is stable or not. For the estimation of money demand function yearly data are used from the 1972 to 2019. The findings of linear ARDL suggest that exchange rate and demand for money balances are positively related. Moreover, Non-linear ARDL exhibit that positive and negative shocks in exchange rate have mixed findings for money demand while asymmetric test shows that exchange rate has symmetric effects for money demand. Stability test suggest the stable money demand in Pakistan.
7
Farooq, Fatima, Muhammad Faheem, and Muhammad Zahid Usman. "Does Globalization Asymmetrically Affect CO2 Emissions in Pakistan? A New Evidence through NARDL Approach." Review of Education, Administration & LAW 3, no. 3 (2020): 511–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.47067/real.v3i3.96.
Full textAbstract:
The study examines the impact of globalization and institutional quality on environmental degradation in Pakistan. The study employs symmetric and asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) at a time to check the linear and nonlinear effect of globalization on the environment over 1985 to 2017. The long-run findings of linear ARDL shows globalization affect positively to the environment and all other control variables FDI, GDP are significant with a positive sign while institutional quality and the interaction term of globalization and institutional quality is significant with a negative sign. The study also finds the marginal effect of interaction term and found that globalization has a different effect on the environment with different level of institutional quality. The linear ARDL model is not suitable to check the asymmetric behaviour of globalization on the environment. For this, the study applied a nonlinear ARDL estimation method. The findings of the nonlinear ARDL model showed the asymmetric behaviour of globalization on the environment. This study provides a new direction by proving the asymmetric relationship of globalization on environment quality that is more beneficial for policymakers and government officials.
8
Kathuria, Khyati, and Nand Kumar. "An Empirical Investigation of the Disaggregated Import Demand Function: Non-linear ARDL Framework." Foreign Trade Review 56, no. 2 (2021): 197–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0015732521995163.
Full textAbstract:
The article estimates the disaggregated import demand function for India using annual time series data for the period 1995–2017. The empirical results reveal strong evidence of long-run stable relationship among the variables considered in the study. The disaggregated import demand function is estimated for India using linear and non-linear ARDL model. The estimated linear ARDL model shows that gross capital formation, exports and relative prices affect import demand positively and significantly, both in the short and long run. While the impact of final consumption expenditure was found to be insignificant in the short run, it affects import demand significantly and positively in the long run. On the other hand, the result of the non-linear ARDL model shows the evidence of asymmetry in the impact of relative prices (positive and negative changes) on import demand, both in the short and long run. JEL Codes: F41, B17, B41, C51
9
HOUFI, Mohamed Ali. "The impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance: Evidence from Saudi Arabia vs her major trading partners." International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting 16, no. 1 (2023): 43–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.33094/ijaefa.v16i1.888.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to analyse the short- and long-term effects of real exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balance between Saudi Arabia and its major trading partners. The study used the aggregated and disaggregated panel data for the analysis. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in error correction is used to analyse the short and long-term relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. It was discovered that the real exchange rate (RER) had no appreciable impact on the trade balance over the long run using the panel data linear ARDL model. The first leg of RER is determined to have a very negative short-term impact on the trade balance. However, the non-linear ARDL model, which took into account non-linear trade balance adjustments in reaction to exchange rate fluctuations, demonstrated a significant and adverse long-term link between the two variables. It shows that depreciation leads to the deterioration of the trade balance. Finally, the study extends the analysis to disaggregated data country-wise. The results of the linear ARDL model revealed that 3 out of 13 cases have significantly short-term relationships. Still, it is observed that no specific short-term patterns are in line with the J-curve hypothesis. The investigation discovered evidence for the J-Curve and the new definition of the J-curve using the non-linear ARDL model in three of the 13 cases. The study concluded that Saudi Arabia must not rely on devaluation as a policy instrument to improve its trade balance. It should maintain its fixed exchange rate for extended periods.
10
Alauddin, Md, Refat Ferdous, Hazera-tun Nessa, and Jyotirmay Biswas. "Oil and Food Prices in Bangladesh: A Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Analysis." Bangladesh Development Studies XLV, no. 1&2 (2024): 87–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.57138/edwu7929.
Full textAbstract:
Fluctuations in the oil price profoundly impact many other prices in the economy, as oil is used to produce numerous goods and services. While literature is ample regarding the linear relationship between crude oil prices and food prices, academic discussion on the presence of non-linear relationships is relatively evolving. This paper strives to explore the existence of both linear and non-linear relationships between crude oil price and food price in Bangladesh by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, respectively. The ARDL model indicates that the crude oil price has a linear and positive impact on food price inflation in Bangladesh. The NARDL model finds no asymmetric relationship between the two variables in the long run. As a result, in the long run, the response of food price inflation in Bangladesh is the same whether oil prices increase or decrease. However, the NARDL model reveals that the change in oil prices asymmetrically impacts food price inflation only in the short run. These findings are essential for further study, and the results can be used for policymaking to ensure food security in Bangladesh.
11
Rahman, Habib Ur. "Impact of Globalisation and Energy Consumption on CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Lithuania Using Linear and Non-linear ARDL Bound Testing Approach." Engineering Economics 35, no. 3 (2024): 252–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.35.3.26778.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impact of globalisation and energy consumption on Lithuania's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using the KOF index of globalisation. Interestingly, the KOF database applies several globalisation gauges, including financial, trade, and overall globalisation. This study employs a series of econometrics techniques using data from 1988 to 2018. The results of the linear and non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach reveal substantial evidence of a long-run association between the study variables. The OLS estimates of the non-linear ARDL model explain that the positive shock in financial globalisation deteriorates CO2 emissions. I could not find such evidence for trade globalisation and overall globalisation. Conversely, energy consumption is the primary source of CO2 emissions in Lithuania.
12
Enisan Akinlo, Anthony. "Asymmetric Effects of Expected Oil Wealth on the Demand for Money in Nigeria." Review of Finance and Banking 16, no. 1 (2024): 105–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/rfb.23.16.01.08.
Full textAbstract:
The paper investigates the asymmetric effects of expected oil wealth on the demand for money in Nigeria over the period 1986:Q1–2020:Q4, by using linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approaches. The linear (ARDL) bounds testing approach shows that expected oil wealth has no significant effect both in the short and long run. However, when a NARDL model is applied, the effect of negative and positive expected oil wealth shocks on the demand for money is significant and unequal in the long run, with a higher long-term impact of negative shocks compared to positive shocks. This result highlights a long-run asymmetry in the transmission of expected oil wealth shocks. Expected oil wealth is thus rather a long-run phenomenon for the Nigerian money demand function.
13
Karamelikli, Huseyin. "Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of the Turkish Trade Balance." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 2 (2016): 70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n2p70.
Full textAbstract:
<p>This study empirically analyses bilateral trade of Turkey with her main trade partners using monthly time series data over the period of 2000 to 2015. J-curve theory and short-run dynamics of bilateral trade is tested by linear ARDL and Non-linear ARDL approaches. The empirical results indicate that there is no J-curve effect during short-run for United States and for France; it symmetrically exists to Germany and asymmetrically to United Kingdom. Also long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance has mixed results. Asymmetric long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for United States exists where it is symmetrically most appropriate for Germany. In the other hand this study failed to verify any long-run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance for France and for United Kingdom.</p>
14
Bhattacharjee, Animesh, Joy Das, and Sunil Kumar. "Evaluating the Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Linkage Between Gold Price and Indian Stock Market in the Presence of Structural Change." NMIMS Management Review 31, no. 4 (2023): 288–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/09711023241234142.
Full textAbstract:
This article investigates the symmetrical and asymmetrical linkage between gold prices and the Indian stock market in the presence of structural breaks. The study covers a time frame from April 1993 to December 2019. The study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NLARDL) models. The major findings of the study are as follows: first, both the ARDL and NLARDL models indicate the co-movement of gold prices and the Indian stock market. Second, based on the long-run parameters of both the models, the long-run relationship between the variables could not be established. Third, short-run parameters show that positive shocks in gold prices depress the Indian stock market; however, negative shocks in gold prices have a positive but insignificant relationship with the Indian stock market. The asymmetric reaction of the Indian stock market will yield new insights for investors, fund managers, and policymakers.
15
Amin, Md Mushaddiqul Islam, and Md Mahafuzur Rahman. "Assessing effects of agriculture and industry on CO2 emissions in Bangladesh." PLOS Climate 3, no. 9 (2024): e0000408. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000408.
Full textAbstract:
Climate change is a critical global issue, driven primarily by the continuous rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Addressing this challenge requires innovative solutions and proactive measures to mitigate its impact. This study investigates the impact of Bangladesh’s industrialization, agriculture, and imports on CO2 emissions, exploring both linear and asymmetric relationships to inform sustainable development strategies. Advanced modeling techniques, namely autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models are used to evaluate the impact of Bangladesh’s agricultural and industrial sectors on CO2 emissions. Time-series data ranging from 1990 to 2022 are analyzed to ensure data stationarity, employing the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Subsequently, the existence of non-linear associations is validated using the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) test, with further confirmation through bounds testing to establish both symmetric and asymmetric long-run cointegrating relationships. Long and short-run coefficients are assessed using linear and asymmetry ARDL models, revealing that industrialization contributes to increased carbon emissions in Bangladesh. While the ARDL model reports that the effect of agriculturalization on CO2 emissions is insignificant in the long-run, the asymmetry ARDL model suggests a rapid reduction in carbon emissions due to agriculturalization, observed both in the long and short-run. Additionally, imports have considerable impact on carbon emissions. Diagnostic tests have confirmed the adequacy of the model, while stability tests have validated the estimated parameters’ stability. Finally, the direction of association between variables is determined by applying linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. This study underscores the importance of promoting sustainable industrial practices, enhancing agricultural efficiency, and regulating imports as pivotal strategies for mitigating CO2 emissions and achieving enduring environmental sustainability in Bangladesh.
16
Usman, Ojonugwa, and Osama Elsalih. "Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil." Economies 6, no. 3 (2018): 49. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies6030049.
Full textAbstract:
This paper attempts to test the pass-through of the real exchange rate (RERT) to unemployment in Brazil over the period 1981M1–2015M11 using linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models. The result of the linearity test suggests that the relationship between RERT and unemployment is linear in the short-run and nonlinear in the long-run. Therefore, using the symmetric ARDL model for the short-run analysis, we find that an increase in the RERT decreases the unemployment rate. The result of the nonlinear ARDL for the long-run analysis shows that the unemployment rate reacts to the RERT appreciations and depreciations differently with depreciations having a strong effect. However, the pass-through of the RERT to unemployment is incomplete both in the short- and long-run. These findings have important policy implications for the designing of appropriate monetary policy in response to a rise in unemployment resulting from a change in the real exchange rate.
17
Abu, Nurudeen, Joseph David, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, and Ben Obi. "Non-Linear Effect of Government Debt on Public Expenditure in Nigeria: Insight from Bootstrap ARDL Procedure." Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies 13, no. 1 (2022): 163–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/omee.2022.13.75.
Full textAbstract:
This study employs the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach alongside the dynamic ARDL simulations technique to investigate the non-linear effect of public debt on public expenditure in Nigeria during the 1981–2020 period. The result of the bootstrap bounds test illustrates the presence of a long-term relationship between public expenditure and public debt (along with oil rents, output growth and urbanisation). Further, the estimation results indicate that the effect of public debt on public expenditure is non-linear. In particular, public expenditure increases at early stages of rising public debt but declines at latter phases when public debt grows beyond specific threshold. This empirical outcome is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulations approach which shows a significant decline in predicted public expenditure after short-term expansion due to counterfactual shock in public debt. Thus, policies which diversify public revenue from oil production and a reversal of the rising trend in public debt are recommended to avert the adverse welfare implications of declining public expenditure.
18
Taddesse, Yewbdar, Girma Estiphanos, Tadele Mamo, and Mandefrot Amare. "Symmetric and Asymmetric Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Agriculture Sector Performance: Evidence from Ethiopia." Agricultural Development 10, no. 6 (2025): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.55220/25766740.v10i6.475.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the symmetrical and asymmetrical impacts of agricultural FDI on the performance of Ethiopia's agricultural sector. It uses multivariate time series data from secondary sources spanning 1981-2021. The data include agricultural real GDP, agricultural FDI inflow, and selected macroeconomic variables. Linear ARDL and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) econometric models were employed for analysis. Results from the asymmetric ARDL model indicate that positive FDI shocks have a significant and favorable effect on agricultural real GDP by 0.05% in the long run. However, negative FDI shocks were found to be statistically insignificant. In the short run, increases in FDI inflow during previous periods significantly reduced current agricultural real GDP, while decreases in FDI inflow also significantly diminished current agricultural production. According to the symmetric ARDL model, there was no significant relationship between the two variables in either the short or long term. The Granger causality test revealed a unidirectional relationship from FDI inflow to agricultural real GDP. In conclusion, agricultural FDI inflow significantly affects the performance of agricultural real GDP in the long run; however, its positive effect is not automatic in the short run. Therefore, attracting more FDI inflow to the agricultural sector is recommended to address financial and technological gaps in Ethiopia's agriculture sector.
19
Naeem, Nasir, Suleiman Sa’ad, Aliyu Rafindadi Sanusi, and Ali Baba Usman. "Accounting for the Effects of Oil Prices on Exchange Rate in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Models." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 19, no. 16 (2023): 284. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2023.v19n16p284.
Full textAbstract:
This study empirically examines the impact oil prices on the exchange rate in Nigeria. Time series annual dataset spanning 1980 to 2018 was estimated using the linear and nonlinear ARDL model developed by Pesaran and Shin, (1998) & Pesaran, et al. (2001) and Shin, et al. (2014); where oil prices, nominal exchange rate, interest rate, and oil revenue serves as the variables for analysis. From the result of the linear-ARDL models both the long run and short-run revealed that oil price has positive and significant impact on exchange rate. Similarly, the nonlinear model also revealed that, both in the long run and short-run, the depreciating effect of a fall in oil price is stronger than an appreciating effect of a arise in oil price of an equal magnitude. This, we argue, reflects the dependency of the economy on oil. One policy implication of this finding is that stability of oil prices and oil revenue is critical for the stability of the domestic currency and, hence, prices. It is, therefore, recommended that authorities should focus on resolving the production difficulties in the Nigeria’s oil industry as a means of reducing the current revenue volatility.
20
Biyase, Mduduzi, and Yourishaa Naidoo. "The Symmetric and Asymmetric Effect of Remittances on Financial Development: Evidence from South Africa." International Journal of Financial Studies 11, no. 1 (2023): 26. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11010026.
Full textAbstract:
Investigating the remittance-financial development relationship is an ongoing endeavor among economists and policy makers. Building and improving on the existing work, this study considers the possibility that the relation between remittances and financial development is potentially asymmetric. This study applies the linear ARDL and captures the possibility of an asymmetrical relationship by applying the non-linear Autoregressive Model (NARDL). Using NARDL, an attempt is made to estimate the short-run and long-run asymmetric responses of financial development through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of changes in remittances. To assess the robustness of the ARDL and NARDL estimates, a battery of long-run robustness tests were employed, including the linear and nonlinear versions of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). Annual data series from 1980 to 2017, derived from the World Development Indicators, Fred Economic data and Penn World Tables were used for this study. The ARDL results reveal a positive and significant impact of remittances on financial development, whereas NARDL estimations suggest a both positive and negative shock of remittances on financial development in the long run: a percentage (%) increase in the remittances brings about 0.121568 percent increase in financial development, whereas a one-percent decrease in remittances produces a 0.33363 percent decrease in financial development.
21
Albahouth, Abdulrahman A. "Inflation Rate Determinants in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach." Sustainability 17, no. 3 (2025): 1036. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17031036.
Full textAbstract:
Inflation across the globe after the COVID-19 pandemic has shown some persistence and followed an upward trend well above inflation targets and beyond normal historical movements. The Saudi inflation rate followed similar patterns of global trends, surging significantly and persisting well above the pre-pandemic levels. This paper examines determinants of inflation in Saudi Arabia, considering internal and external factors, and evaluates whether inflation responds to common global shocks or is largely influenced by macroeconomic variabilities within the economy. Findings and analyses in this paper are based on both conventional Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) models using quarterly level data to capture short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between inflation rate and examined macroeconomics variables, namely oil prices real effective exchange rate, money supply, and government spending. Reported results reveal an asymmetrical relationship between oil price fluctuations and inflation rate volatilities in Saudi Arabia. Inclines in oil prices lead to higher inflation, while the decline in oil prices does not alleviate inflationary pressures, and these results are consistent both in the short-run and the long run. The influence of pass-through real effective exchange rate is also evident in transmitting global shocks to local consumer prices in the long run, where a depreciation in real effective exchange rate results in a higher cost of imported goods, exerting additional stresses on local inflation. For factors within the economy, findings indicate a substantial long-term inflationary effect of money supply on the inflation rate in Saudi Arabia, where a one percent increase in the money supply led to more than one-third increase in inflation in the long run. On the other hand, while the influence of government spending on inflation was statistically significant, its impact is less pronounced in explaining the inflation rate’s variations. The analysis reveals that the evaluated variables exert a stronger influence on inflation in the long run. This underscores the critical need for policymakers to consider the cumulative effects of these determinants when formulating effective long-term inflation stabilization policies.
22
Yahya Abd, Tabarak, and Firas A. Mohammed Almohana. "Building A hybrid Time Series Model Using ARDL With LSTM and GRU Models." Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 30, no. 144 (2024): 501–16. https://doi.org/10.33095/wh488343.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose: The aim of the research is to utilize a hybrid model that combines the linear model represented by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the nonlinear model represented by deep learning models, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Theoretical Framework: The theoretical framework integrates the linear component represented by the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the nonlinear component represented by deep learning models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) To create hybrid models. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research methodology involves the use of EVIEWS 12 for analyzing standard data and integrating the ARDL model, as well as Python programming for building the proposed forecasting models. Weekly data from the Iraqi stock market, specifically from the banking and communications sectors spanning from 2017 to 2021, is utilized. The study compares the performance of the hybrid models ARDL_LSTM and ARDL_GRU with individual models using evaluation metrics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Findings: The results indicate the superiority of the hybrid model ARDL_LSTM over other models due to its high accuracy and lower comparison measurement values. Originality/Value: The originality of the research lies in its hybrid approach, combining ARDL with deep learning models like LSTM and GRU for time series forecasting. This approach adds value by addressing the limitations of individual models and improving forecasting accuracy in the context of the Iraqi stock market.
23
SHITILE, Tersoo Shimonkabir, and Abubakar SULE. "Welfare Effect of Monetary Financing." Applied Economics and Finance 6, no. 5 (2019): 145. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v6i5.4444.
Full textAbstract:
This study ascertained the direction and asymmetric pass-through of central bank’s monetary financing to welfare in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the period 1970 to 2018. The study depended on both the Monetarist and Keynesian theoretical postulations to provide insights on the policy significance of monetary financing. To undertake the empirical analysis, the study applied both the linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique. Unlike the ARDL equation, the estimated NARDL equation established that welfare losses respond negatively to both positive and negative changes in monetary financing; but the impact of negative monetary financing shock (7.11) is greater than the positive shock (2.87). In addition, the study found that it takes about 9 to 11 quarters for the changes in positive and negative monetary financing to fully release its effects on welfare loss. Besides, the results revealed that welfare loss is also driven by oil price, which is suggestive from oil price pass-through to domestic prices (exchange rate and consumer prices). The study, therefore, supports monetary financing in proper amounts and conditions to boost aggregate nominal demand but not to spur a fully-fledged monetary policy capture in the process.
24
Mohamad, Abdul Hayy Haziq, Muhamad Rias K. V. Zainuddin, and Rossazana Ab-Rahim. "Does Renewable Energy Transition in the USA and China Overcome Environmental Degradation?" International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 13, no. 6 (2023): 234–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.14840.
Full textAbstract:
The use of fossil energy highly contributes to the CO2 emissions. Compared to other countries, China and the USA were responsible for approximately half of the global CO2 emissions in 2022. The SDG7 agenda, which aims to preserve the use of renewable energy, has made people aware of the need to switch from fossil-based to renewable energy sources by 2030. Thus, this paper aims to analyze the implications of fossil and renewable energy consumption on environmental degradation in the USA and China. This study uses the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the cointegration of the fossil and renewable energy toward the CO2 emissions from 1985 to 2021. The estimation results for USA using linear ARDL shows that fossil energy lead to higher CO2 emissions, meanwhile renewable energy reduces the CO2 emissions. Similar finding in the nonlinear ARDL, most of the models for China and the USA found significant impact of renewable energy consumption, where higher renewable energy transition contributes in lowering environmental degradation. This provide justification for policymakers in both countries to continue their efforts in renewable energy transition to archive the SDG7 agenda in 2030.
25
Sumaira Batool, Dr. Saima Urooge, Syed Muhammad Faraz Raza, Muhammad Qasim Javaid, and Asif Ali. "Impressions of Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services Exports on Economic Expansion in Pakistan." Critical Review of Social Sciences Studies 3, no. 1 (2025): 1928–37. https://doi.org/10.59075/fpvyya76.
Full textAbstract:
This study’s objective is to examine the linear impressions of disaggregated industrial exports including agriculture, manufacturing and services on economic expansion in Pakistan. Rendering to this, the data of export indicators is taken from 1980 to 2020. For estimation purposes, existing study has applied the linear ARDL model for long and short term estimations. The linear short-term estimation indicate that agriculture exports and the manufacturing exports has surged the economic expansion of Pakistan in the short term. In accordance with the long term ARDL linear estimation, the values of agricultural exports and manufacturing exports are increasing Pakistan’s economic expansion. Simultaneously, the services exports are negatively influencing economic progress of Pakistan, while the effect is inconsequential. At the same time, it is evident that the error corrected term has adjusted the error from short to long period of given time. Therefore, by implementing a comprehensive policy strategy, Pakistan can optimize its capabilities in high-value service sectors like information and technology, banking, and professional consulting, therefore fostering sustained economic expansion.
26
Hakiki, Suci Indah, and Asnawi Asnawi. "PENGARUH LUAS LAHAN, PRODUKSI, HARGA KAKAO INTERNASIONAL TERHADAP EKSPOR KAKAO INDONESIA." Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Unimal 2, no. 1 (2019): 48. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/jepu.v2i1.1794.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to examine the effect of land area, production, international cocoa prices on Indonesian cocoa exports. The data used is the time series data for the period 1991-2017. This study uses two methods of analysis multiple linear regression analysis, the second is the Auto Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL). The test results using multiple linear regression analysis showed that as together of land area, production, international cocoa prices effected on Indonesian cocoa exports. Partially large areas, production and prices of international cocoa each have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian cocoa exports. The test results using ARDL indicated a cointegration positive and not significant long-run and short-term. Production and prices of international cocoa in long run and short term each influenced positively and significantly.
27
Luqman, Rabia, and Rehana Kouser. "Asymmetrical Linkages between Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence through Linear and Non-Linear ARDL." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 11, no. 3 (2018): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11030051.
Full textAbstract:
The symmetrical relationship between currency and equity markets has gained much attention among academicians and policy makers in the recent era. Many studies conducted on this relationship have concluded that there is short-run relationship between these variables and found less evidence about a long-run relationship. Moreover, all previous studies supposed the linear or symmetrical relationship between these variables. In this study, we use daily time series data from G8+5 countries and Pakistan for 2000–2016 and apply linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to check the symmetrical and asymmetrical relationship between currency and equity markets. Results have shown that there are asymmetrical linkages between the currency and equity markets.
28
Albiman, Masoud. "Asymmetric effect, non-linear ARDL, and the J – Curve analysis among East African community members." Global Journal of Business, Economics and Management: Current Issues 12, no. 1 (2022): 23–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/gjbem.v12i1.5362.
Full textAbstract:
When a country’s balance of trade persistently records deficits, the most important policy is to devalue the exchange rate. This article aims to explore the symmetric effect of the exchange rate and its transmission channels on the trade balance. The recently developed method of Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was utilized for Quarterly data from 1990 Q1 to 2019 Q4 in unexplored areas of East African Community (EAC -5) members. The study found the presence of robust symmetric and asymmetric negative effects of exchange rate changes on trade balance only in Uganda, both in the short-run and long-run. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of robust J-curve phenomena within EAC members. Generally, the application of exchange rate policy in improving trade imbalance is doubted within the EAC region. Keywords: EAC; Exchange rate; J –curve; nonlinear ARDL.
29
Md., Qamruzzaman. "Nexus between oil price and stock market development in Southeast Asian economy: Evidence from linear and nonlinear assessment." GSC Advanced Research and Reviews 14, no. 1 (2023): 113–26. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7678494.
Full textAbstract:
The literature has extensively investigated stock market development and its critical role. Another variety of studies focuses on determining the factors responsible for stock market development. The motivation of the study is to investigate the impact of oil price movement on stock market development in the Southeast Asian economy for the period 1990-2020.study applied several economical tools such as the second-generation panel unit root test widely known as CADF and CIPS, panel cointegration test with error correction term, panel ARDL and nonlinear ARDL. Study findings have revealed that oil price prices are negatively associated with stock market development both long-run and short-run. The nonlinear assessment established a long-run asymmetric association between oil price and stock market development. Refers to asymmetric elasticity, the study documented a negative and statistically significant linkage between asymmetric shocks of oil price and the measures of stock market development.
30
Hajilee, Massomeh, Mahsa Oroojeni Mohammad Javad, and Linda A. Hayes. "On the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure: an asymmetric analysis." Journal of Economic Studies 47, no. 3 (2020): 509–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-12-2018-0420.
Full textAbstract:
PurposeIndividuals' health is considered one of the major determinants of higher levels of productivity and economic development. Over the past century, the widespread occurrence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) has been a serious threat to economic development around the globe and has caused a dramatic fall in the life expectancy rate in many nations. This is the first study that examines the impact of HIV prevalence on health expenditure at the national level employing two linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and simultaneously tests the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries. The authors employ annual data from 1981 to 2016. They find that HIV prevalence has a significant impact on health expenditure in the short-run and long-run in all five countries using the linear model and four of the countries in the nonlinear model. They find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors are employing two linear and nonlinear ARDL models and simultaneously test the long-run and short-run relationship for five selected developed countries.FindingsThe authors find that HIV/AIDS prevalence has a significant short-run and long-run asymmetric impact on health expenditure of almost all selected developed economies.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research work that empirically examines the link between HIV prevalence and health expenditure for this group of countries using linear and nonlinear ARDL approach for short run and long run.
31
Emamian, Aref, and Nur Syazwani Mazlan. "Monetary-Fiscal policies and stock market performance: Evidence from linear ARDL framework." GATR Journal of Business and Economics Review (GATR-JBER) VOL. 5 (4) JAN-MAR. 2021 5, no. 4 (2021): 69–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/jber.2021.5.4(7).
Full textAbstract:
Objective – To explore the impacts of monetary and fiscal policies, the appropriateness of both policies and how the stock market is affected by their adoption and implementation in the United States (US). Hence, this study aims to determine the short and long run relationships between monetary and fiscal policies and stock market performance as well as establish potential factors and policies contributing to the highs and lows. Methodology/Technique – We use autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to achieve the objective. In this study, annual time series data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, was used. Findings – The results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real gross domestic product (RGDP) and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of the consumer price index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Novelty – As the US stock market heavily depends on the Tax Revenue in the short run, any changes in TR can impact on the US stock market considerably. Thus, shareholders can benefit from these results when they look at macroeconomic data in order to enhance their investment strategy. Type of Paper: Empirical. JEL Classification: E52; E62; G18 Keywords: ARDL; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; The Stock Market in The United States. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Emamian, A; Mazlan, N.S. 2021. Monetary-Fiscal policies and stock market performance: Evidence from linear ARDL framework, Journal of Business and Economics Review, 5(4), 69–80. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2021.5.4(7)
32
Saungwem, Talknice, Glenda Maluleke, and Nicholas M. Odhiambo. "The impact of public debt on economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire: New evidence from linear and non-linear ARDL approaches." Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics 9, no. 1 (2023): 61–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/crebss-2023-0005.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract This study examines the symmetric and asymmetric impact of public debt on economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire using time series data from 1972 to 2021. The analyses were performed using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The study also utilised the bounds F-test for cointegration, the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) nonlinearity test, and the Wald test for asymmetries. The findings of the bounds F-test provide support for both linear and nonlinear cointegration. The BDS test results indicate that the series are nonlinear, while Wald test results revealed an asymmetric relationship between public debt and economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire in the short run and symmetric relationship in the long run. Estimation results for the symmetric ARDL regression model provide no evidence of a statistically significant impact of public debt on economic growth, regardless of whether the analysis was conducted in the short run or long run. The NARDL findings indicate that, on average, positive changes to public debt lead to economic decline in the long run, while negative changes cause an economic upturn in the short run. The findings also show that GDP growth responds rapidly and strongly to negative changes in public debt. Therefore, the study encourages the government of Côte d'Ivoire to be cautious about public debt rise because it was established that they have a negative impact on economic growth. Negative changes in the public debt can serve to minimise the uncertainties in the business environment, thus promoting private, public, and foreign direct investments.
33
Mugableh, Mohamed Ibrahim, and Mohammad Salem Oudat. "Economic Growth and Financial Development nexus in Malaysia: Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models." Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting 10, no. 1 (2018): 143. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v10i1.12736.
Full textAbstract:
This paper estimates the equilibrium and causality relationships among gross domestic product, energy consumption, financial development, foreign direct investment inflows, and gross fixed capital formation. Different econometrics tests like descriptive statistics, ARCH, KPSS unit root, Johansen and Juselius’s co-integration, VECM Granger causality, and ARDL equilibrium relationships have been employed in Malaysia over the (1971−2013) period. The correlation matrix results indicate a linear association among variables. The null hypotheses of Heteroscedasticity and non-stationary have been rejected implying the appropriate use of VECM and ARDL approach. The VECM Granger causality findings show a long-run bidirectional among the variables. The ARDL approach results demonstrate that energy consumption, financial development, foreign direct investment inflows, and gross fixed capital formation augment gross domestic product in long-run. However, the findings of this paper add essential implications to policy makers and scholars in fields of economic, energy, and finance.
34
Burakov, Dmitry, and Alexander Bass. "Institutional determinants of environmental pollution in Russia: a non-linear ARDL approach." Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues 7, no. 1 (2019): 510–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2019.7.1(36).
Full text
35
Qin, Zhexuan, and Ilhan Ozturk. "Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption in BRICS: Assessing the Dynamic Linkage between Foreign Capital Inflows and Energy Consumption." Energies 14, no. 10 (2021): 2974. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14102974.
Full textAbstract:
This study attempt to fill the research gap by figuring out the dynamic effects of foreign capital inflows effect on renewable energy and non-renewable consumption by using the time series non-linear ARDL approach for BRICS from 1991 to 2019. Non-linear ARDL estimates show that positive change in foreign capital inflows has a positive effect on renewable consumption in Brazil, India, and South Africa in long run. Also, the negative change in foreign capital inflows exhibits negatively liked with renewable energy consumption in BRICS economies, except Russia in long run. We find that positive shock in foreign capital inflows tends to increase non-renewable energy consumption in BRICS except India in the long run. Finding suggests that negative change in foreign capital inflows has negative impacts on non-renewable energy consumption in India and Brazil, while the positive effect in only China in the long run.
36
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, and Hadise Fariditavana. "Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 3 (2015): 519–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-03-2015-0042.
Full textAbstract:
Purpose – Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach. Findings – When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve. Research limitations/implications – The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research. Originality/value – This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.
37
Durmaz, Nazif, and John Kagochi. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Imports of Cocoa Beans." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 15, no. 4 (2022): 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15040184.
Full textAbstract:
The present paper uses asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling where a nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate yields results that are different than those yielded by linear models. We study cocoa imports for Turkey with advanced ARDL and nonlinear ARDL frameworks. Our findings reveal that there is considerable asymmetry for the case of Turkish cocoa bean imports from Côte d’Ivoire. Compared with imports from Ghana, there are significant differences in Turkish importers’ preferences when choosing between the two cocoa bean providers. Our results provide support for the nonlinear adjustment of the real Turkish lira–US dollar exchange rate and a hint of imperfect rivalry in Turkish cocoa bean imports.
38
Aruga, Kentaka. "Changes in Human Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Tokyo Fuel Market." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 4 (2021): 163. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14040163.
Full textAbstract:
The study identifies the impact of the changes in human mobility due to the announcement of the state of emergency to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tokyo gasoline, diesel, and kerosene markets. Indices reflecting the movements in the visits to transit stations and workplaces were used to capture the changes in human mobility from February 2020 to February 2021. The linear and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models were applied to investigate the relationship between the changes in human mobility indices and fuel prices. Although only the kerosene price received an impact from the human mobility changes in the linear ARDL model, the NARDL model revealed that when human mobility was increasing, the fuel price was affected positively and the negative shocks in the mobility had an adverse influence on the fuel price. The results of the study imply the importance of providing subsidies when a state of emergency reduces fuel demands due to the decline in human mobility and negatively affects the fuel retail industry.
39
Shabira, Hilwa, and Khairul Amri. "Pengaruh Ekspor dan Belanja Pemerintah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi." Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sekretari 8, no. 1 (2023): 31–42. https://doi.org/10.35870/jemensri.v8i1.3035.
Full textAbstract:
This research aims to analyze the influence of exports and government spending on economic growth in Indonesia. Using Time-Series data for the period 1999-2019 and analysis of multiple linear regression models and autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL). The results of this study show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and exports and government spending. The results of multiple linear regression show that exports have an insignificant positive relationship with economic growth, while government spending has an insignificant negative relationship with Indonesia's economic growth. The results using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) show that in the long term exports have an insignificant positive effect on economic growth, while in the short term exports have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Government spending, both in the long and short term, has an insignificant negative effect on economic growth. This finding has the implication that increasing economic growth can be done by increasing the level of exports and allocating government spending to productive things.
40
Huda, Nurul. "Pengaruh Antara Kemiskinan dan Investasi Terhadap Ketimpangan." Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sekretari 8, no. 2 (2023): 56–66. https://doi.org/10.35870/jemensri.v8i2.3037.
Full textAbstract:
This study was conducted with the aim of estimating and knowing the results of the analysis of the effect between poverty and investment on inequality in Indonesia in the period 2007 to 2022. The data used is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the World Bank in Indonesia in the form of Time Series data. This analysis used multiple linear regression and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methods. The results of research with multiple linear regression show that the poverty rate has a negative and insignificant effect on inequality and in the investment sector has a negative and also insignificant effect on inequality in Indonesia. While the results of ARDL in the short and long term that investment has a positive and significant effect on inequality. One of the implications of this finding is an effort to increase investment in order to increase the production of goods and services in a region and can reduce the level of inequality in the region.
41
Zumba, Yunana Ishemu, Magai Abe, Gideon G. Goshit, and Uten Paul. "Oil Price and Unemployment in Oil Importing Economies: Linear and Nonlinear Panel ARDL Evidence from Africa." Journal of Business and Economic Analysis 7, no. 1 (2025): 91–115. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15526067.
Full textAbstract:
The extant literature suggests a significant association between oil prices and unemployment. However, the relevant literature is unclear on how oil prices impact unemployment in oil-importing economies. In the present study, we empirically examine the impact of oil prices on unemployment in 29 African oil-importing economies employing the linear and nonlinear panel ARDL techniques. Our findings demonstrate a negative and significant relationship between oil prices and unemployment in the short run. In contrast, we observe a direct but weak association between unemployment and oil prices in the long run. Besides, unemployment reacts negatively and positively, respectively, to positive and negative changes in oil prices in the short run. In the long run, we detect that an increase in oil prices aggravates unemployment significantly, but a fall in oil prices improves unemployment significantly. All our findings prove robust to data of different frequencies (quarterly and yearly) and Brent and WTI oil price indices.
42
Ahmed, H. F. Tareq, and Nur Syazwani Mazlan. "The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 13, no. 1 (2021): 7–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910120974798.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the symmetric and/or asymmetric effects of changes in the interest rate on exchange rate of the ASEAN countries. It further aims to compare these linkages by using a dataset consisting of 48–68 quarterly data items, ranging over the period 2002–2017, of the ASEAN countries. Using both the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approaches, the findings indicate that these effects vary from one country to another. We observe that changes in interest rates have short-run symmetric effects on the exchange rates, which also hold in the long run for five ASEAN countries, namely, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore. On the other hand, changes in interest rates have asymmetric (negative) effects on the exchange rates, which also hold in the long run for seven ASEAN countries, namely, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
43
Md. Qamruzzaman. "Nexus between oil price and stock market development in Southeast Asian economy: Evidence from linear and nonlinear assessment." GSC Advanced Research and Reviews 14, no. 1 (2023): 113–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.30574/gscarr.2023.14.1.0024.
Full textAbstract:
The literature has extensively investigated stock market development and its critical role. Another variety of studies focuses on determining the factors responsible for stock market development. The motivation of the study is to investigate the impact of oil price movement on stock market development in the Southeast Asian economy for the period 1990-2020.study applied several economical tools such as the second-generation panel unit root test widely known as CADF and CIPS, panel cointegration test with error correction term, panel ARDL and nonlinear ARDL. Study findings have revealed that oil price prices are negatively associated with stock market development both long-run and short-run. The nonlinear assessment established a long-run asymmetric association between oil price and stock market development. Refers to asymmetric elasticity, the study documented a negative and statistically significant linkage between asymmetric shocks of oil price and the measures of stock market development.
44
Song, Jiecheng, and Merry Ma. "Climate Change: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis." Stats 6, no. 2 (2023): 626–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/stats6020040.
Full textAbstract:
The goal of this study is to detect linear and nonlinear causal pathways toward climate change as measured by changes in global mean surface temperature and global mean sea level over time using a data-based approach in contrast to the traditional physics-based models. Monthly data on potential climate change causal factors, including greenhouse gas concentrations, sunspot numbers, humidity, ice sheets mass, and sea ice coverage, from January 2003 to December 2021, have been utilized in the analysis. We first applied the vector autoregressive model (VAR) and Granger causality test to gauge the linear Granger causal relationships among climate factors. We then adopted the vector error correction model (VECM) as well as the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to quantify the linear long-run equilibrium and the linear short-term dynamics. Cointegration analysis has also been adopted to examine the dual directional Granger causalities. Furthermore, in this work, we have presented a novel pipeline based on the artificial neural network (ANN) and the VAR and ARDL models to detect nonlinear causal relationships embedded in the data. The results in this study indicate that the global sea level rise is affected by changes in ice sheet mass (both linearly and nonlinearly), global mean temperature (nonlinearly), and the extent of sea ice coverage (nonlinearly and weakly); whereas the global mean temperature is affected by the global surface mean specific humidity (both linearly and nonlinearly), greenhouse gas concentration as measured by the global warming potential (both linearly and nonlinearly) and the sunspot number (only nonlinearly and weakly). Furthermore, the nonlinear neural network models tend to fit the data closer than the linear models as expected due to the increased parameter dimension of the neural network models. Given that the information criteria are not generally applicable to the comparison of neural network models and statistical time series models, our next step is to examine the robustness and compare the forecast accuracy of these two models using the soon-available 2022 monthly data.
45
Maulana, Akbar, Taufiq Carnegie Dawood, and Teuku Zulham. "Asymmetrical Exchange Rates Effect on Indonesia's Trade Balance in Tourism." JEJAK 14, no. 1 (2021): 102–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v14i1.27234.
Full textAbstract:
The main objective of this research is to analyze the effect of depreciation and real exchange rate appreciation on Indonesia's tourism trade balance bilaterally against Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. Such analysis on bilateral relations have never been studied for developing markets countries, namely Indonesia. This study uses a linear ARDL approach and a nonlinear ARDL approach with the dependent variable on the tourism trade balance and the real exchange rate as independent variables. Income, foreign direct investment (FDI), and natural disasters as control variables. The empirical results show that Chinese and Japanese tourists respond positively to the depreciation in the real currency rate of exchange, thereby increasing Indonesia's tourism trade balance. Nonlinear ARDL shows that the relation concerning the real rate of exchange plus the balance of trade is non-symmetrical with respect to China and Japan, while Australia, Malaysia, and Singapore are symmetrical. These results suggest that the government should formulate policies to increase tourist visits from China and Japan. Further empirical results also found a J-curve pattern in Indonesia-China and Indonesia-Japan.
46
Raifu, Isiaka Akande, and Alarudeen Aminu. "A reconsideration of Wagner's hypothesis for Nigeria using linear and nonlinear ARDL methods." International Journal of Sustainable Economy 12, no. 4 (2020): 321. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijse.2020.112308.
Full text
47
Mazorodze, Brian Tavonga, and Noureen Siddiq. "On the Unemployment Output Relation in South Africa: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 10, no. 5(J) (2018): 167–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v10i5(j).2506.
Full textAbstract:
The central aim of this paper is to establish the asymmetric effects of cyclical output on South Africa's unemployment rate. To achieve this objective, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is applied on quarterly data spanning the periods 1994Q1-2017Q4. For every 10% economic contraction and expansion respectively according to the results, the response of the labour market is asymmetric in the long-run in that it loses more workers during contraction (10.3%) than it employs during recoveries (8%) supporting the labour market hysteresis. This is particularly true post the 2009 Global crisis suggesting that firms might have become more risk-averse to short-lived recoveries in recent years. The weak response of the labour market during expansions supports IMF’s recent proposition that economic recovery alone may not be enough to address South Africa's unemployment problem.
48
Naghdi, Yazdan, and Mohadese Soltantooye . "Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran: Evidence from ARDL & Rolling Linear Models." Information Management and Business Review 3, no. 6 (2011): 383–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v3i6.955.
Full textAbstract:
Economists pay considerable attention to the influential factors on the economic growth in the framework of the growth models. In the same direction, the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Iran has been investigated during 1978-2008. First, an adjusted model has been designed based on (Barro) model and then the relationship between inflation and economic growth has been estimated using both ARDL and rolling linear regression models. The results derived from the both estimated models showed that the effect of inflation on economic growth is negative and Significance.
49
Raifu, Isiaka Akande, and Alarudeen Aminu. "A reconsideration of Wagner's hypothesis for Nigeria using linear and nonlinear ARDL methods." International Journal of Sustainable Economy 12, no. 4 (2020): 321. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijse.2020.112308.
Full text
50
KUMAR, Kundan, and Rajendra Narayan PARAMANIK. "Nexus between Indian Economic Growth and Financial Development: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach." Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business 7, no. 6 (2020): 109–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no6.109.
Full text