Academic literature on the topic 'Live cinema'

his essay analyzes the cinemas that were featured in L’Architecture d’Aujourd’hui from 1930 until 1939. This being one of the most influential magazines for the spread of Modern Movement ideas, its editorial line focused on the adaptation of building to function and on the distinction between European and American cinemas. Theoretical texts separated classic live theatre from cinema design since programme and features were completely different. Far from American euphoria and classic theatre sobriety, how was architecture for cinema envisaged?

This article investigates the increasingly prevalent discourse of ‘live cinema’ as the name of a concrete practice and conceptual aspiration within contemporary media aesthetics. The author argues that this oxymoronic conjunction encapsulates certain fundamental questions recurring throughout the history of 20th-century art in its increasingly important intersection with both media technology and performance. Contrasting contemporary digital ‘interfaces’ with classical musical instruments, he asks how traditional forms of embodiment and virtuosity have been transformed within contemporary audiovisual performance. Finally, he explores ideas of speed and the cut from Sergei Eisenstein’s film theory to explore Abigail Child’s 1983 film Mutiny as a work that, while not itself ‘Live Cinema’, sheds important light on what such a future aesthetic might conceivably entail.

This paper accompanies four films which use CCTV to create Live Cinema performances which challenge both the narrative conventions of cinema and the expectations that we have of CCTV images. The paper details the ways in which this occurs and concludes with some lessons for future CCTV film-making and performance. The films can be viewed at: http://paoleb-ccvv.blogspot.com/

This work provides contextual analysis of contemporary live cinema practise.Based on reflection of selected works by czech artists it points to various aspects of contemporary live cinema practice in context of media and fine arts.

Orientador: Francisco Elinaldo Teixeira
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Artes
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Resumo: Com mais de dez anos de existência, as performances de Live Cinema apontam para diversos caminhos com o surgimento de novas ideias e experimentações que foram impulsionadas pelo resgate de propostas desenvolvidas ao longo da história do audiovisual. A primeira parte desta pesquisa propõe um retorno às origens do cinema para mapear as produções que se aproximaram do campo de outras artes e desenvolveram narrativas desviantes, herdadas pelo Live Cinema. A segunda parte realiza um levantamento das características das manipulações de imagem em tempo real. Partindo de um foco nos processos fílmicos, aponta os traços recorrentes e padrões repetitivos que procedem de genealogias distintas, oriundas de pensamentos anteriormente experimentados nos campos das artes visuais, artes performáticas, cinema experimental, música e redes telemáticas que, ao se juntar com o Live Cinema, geraram três tendências: Cinema do Banco de Dados, Cinema em Circuito Fechado e Cinema Generativo
Abstract: With over ten years of existence, the performances of Live Cinema indicate different ways with the emergence of new ideas and experiments that were driven by the recurrence of proposals developed over the history of audiovisual. The first part of this research returns to the origins of cinema to bring up the productions that approached to the field of arts, and developed different kinds of narratives, inherited by Live Cinema. The second part conducts a research about the characteristics of image manipulations in real time, and starting from a filmic focus on processes, points out the recurrent and repetitive patterns, that come from different genealogies, thoughts coming from previously experienced in the fields of visual arts, performing arts, experimental film, music and telematic networks. All of them, together with Live Cinema, developed three trends: Database Cinema, Close Circuit Cinema and Generative Cinema
Mestrado
Multimeios
Mestre em Multimeios

Artists have been interested in the human brain’s anatomy and physiology since at least the Renaissance, while in the twentieth century, the technological revolution enabled them to include in their practices methods adopted from the sciences and engineering, like Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). The use of BCIs originates in the 1960s, with musicians, performers and artists being amongst the pioneers in the design of BCI applications. In recent years, after a period of little progress in the field, the introduction of new commercial-grade Electroencephalography (EEG)-based BCIs has led to a phenomenal development of applications across health, entertainment and the arts. At the same time, in the fields of neuroscience and experimental psychology, has emerged a new increasing interest in the mechanisms and processes of the interaction between multiple subjects and their brain-activity, referred to as multi-brain interaction. Although the vast majority of the applications in the arts and entertainment use the brain-activity of a single participant, there are earlier as well as an increasing number of recent examples that involve the simultaneous interaction of more than one participants, mainly in the context of installations, computer games and music performances. This dissertation investigates the use of multi-brain EEG-based BCIs in the context of live cinema and mixed-media performances, which is a rather new field bearing distinct characteristics. Using an interdisciplinary approach, a critical overview of the development of the main BCI hardware, software and modes of interaction is presented and relevant works are examined. The aim is to identify the neuroscientific, computational, creative, performative and experimental challenges of the design and implementation of multi-brain BCIs in mixed-media performances, which leads to the main research question: What might be an effective model for the simultaneous multi-brain interaction of performers and audiences using EEG-based BCIs in the context of live cinema and mixed-media performances? In order to address the main research enquiry, scientific and practice-based methodologies were combined and a new passive multi-brain EEG-based BCI system was developed. The system was further implemented in the context of the research case study, Enheduanna – A Manifesto of Falling, the first demonstration of a live brain-computer cinema performance (CCA Glasgow 29-31 July 2015). This new work enabled for the first time the simultaneous real-time interaction with the use of EEG-based BCIs of more than two participants, including both a performer as well as members of the audience in the context of a mixed-media performance. The analysis of the participants’ data has most interestingly revealed a correlation between the elements of the performance, which they identified as most special, and their indicators of attention and emotional engagement that were increased during the last two scenes, when their brain-activity was interacting with the live visuals, proving the efficiency of the interaction design, the importance of the directing strategy, dramaturgy and narrative structure. Accordingly, the original contributions of the research include the new passive multi-brain EEG-based BCI system, the live brain-computer cinema performance as a new format of performative work and as a complete combination of creative and scientific solutions. This dissertation also presents the new trends in the field, such as hybrid BCIs, the combination with virtual and mixed reality systems, together with future work.

This dissertation uses an interdisciplinary approach that analyzes and compares the film scoring processes of Danny Elfman, Elliot Goldenthal, James Newton Howard and Hans Zimmer in characterizing the fictional hero Batman in film. This is accomplished by applying Classical Hollywood film scoring principles from the golden age of cinema, Juan Chattah's pragmatic and semiotic typologies regarding musical metaphoric expression, and psychology. This amalgamation demonstrates how the aforementioned film composers consider varying structural aspects of their music, i.e., formal design, melodic contour, harmonic gestures, and cadential formulas, in (re)creating and establishing their individual artistic trademarks on a comic book character within canonical and non-canonical storylines. The study includes soundtracks from Tim Burton's Batman and Batman Returns, Joel Schumacher's Batman Forever and Batman & Robin, and Christopher Nolan's Batman Begins and The Dark Knight. The result is an analysis that: 1) enhances what little is known about the music for these films; 2) allows for the recognition of the film scoring creative process behind film sequelization; 3) enhances musical and psychological interpretations of the Batman character; and 4) offers an expansion of Chattah's metaphorical typologies.

In 1991, India entered the global market as a liberalized economy when, coerced by the International Monetary Fund, it adopted “structural adjustment” policies. The early period of economic liberalization in India engendered a sense of optimism and forward-looking aspiration in the national imaginary and culture. This faith in novelty and change, for the urban middle-classes, was a result of the increase in incomes in white-collar jobs and the availability of greater choices in the commodity market for consumers. Thirty years later, the fantasy of wealth and abundance that was supposed to transform the country into a thriving superpower is visibly cracking. Social reality has not kept up with the promises afforded by economic liberalization. The increasing wealth gap and the dangerous marriage between neoliberalism and right-wing politics has created public culture of everyday violence, divisiveness, and despair. In this dissertation, I examine how recent mainstream Hindi cinema has responded to India's neoliberal turn. My work is based on the premise that the cinema of the past two decades is a record of social history. The major themes I focus on are the pervasiveness of neoliberal values into everyday life and work and the consequent formation of a neoliberal subjectivity. I also focus on how forms of neoliberal selfhood contend with existing social structures of caste, class, sexuality and religious identity in India. Finally, I lay out the interconnections between the recent rise of Hindu fundamentalism in India, popular cinema and neoliberal culture.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo o relato das apresentações de Fluidos, o primeiro projeto realizado no formato CineVivo. Trata-se de uma experiência inédita de longa-metragem realizado ao vivo, com captação, edição e exibição simultâneas. Em diversas locações, atores encenam a história de ficção captada por três câmeras. Essas imagens são transmitidas para a edição em tempo real e a exibição para os espectadores na sala de cinema. As apresentações aconteceram no Centro Cultural São Paulo, no Sesc Pompeia e no CineSESC entre o período de maio de 2009 a maio de 2010. Em anexo, encontram-se o último tratamento do roteiro, o DVD com a versão apresentada no CineSESC e as principais reportagens publicadas na mídia.
The aim of this dissertation is to report the exhibitions of Fluids. This is the first project completed in the format CineVivo. It is a new experience for feature film performed live, with capture, editing and projection simultaneously. At several locations, cast acts the story captured by three cameras that transmit live for realtime editing and projection in the theater. The film was screened at Centro Cultural São Paulo, SESC Pompeia and CineSESC, between May 2009 to May 2010. Attached the last screenplays treatment, DVD with the version presented in CineSESC, and main reports in the media.

PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
O objetivo desta pesquisa é uma análise das estratégias cinematográficas que são marcas específicas da obra do diretor espanhol Pedro Almodóvar, especialmente no que se refere às zonas de cruzamento cultural que evidenciam novas formas do posicionamento do sujeito no mundo. Para isto, realiza-se um desdobramento de certos elementos presentes na fonte primária selecionada, o recorte principal de trabalho: o último longa-metragem lançado no mercado internacional, Volver (2006). O estudo é baseado em três discussões que serão também o foco de cada capítulo: as diferenças no tratamento do tempo e na experimentação das esferas temporais; a remodelação da divisão alta arte / cultura de massa e da matriz genérica do melodrama; e finalmente, a construção do espaço fílmico e de representação das cidades.
The main objective of this research is to analyze the cinematographic strategies that are features of filmmaker Pedro Almodóvar s work. Specifically, our aim will be the relations of the cultural intersection zones that reveal new ways in which one lives in the contemporary world. For that matter, this study creates a discussion of various elements present in the primary source: the last film by Almodóvar released in the international market, Volver (2006). This dissertation is based on three points that are also the main focus of each chapter: the first being the different forms of dealing and experimenting with the notion of time; the second, the reconfiguration of the melodrama and the high art / mass culture division; and finally the third, the spacial construction of the film and the representation of the city.

What is an ‘arena spectacular’ and why has this genre of live entertainment gained international popularity in the twenty-first century? This study looks at three arena spectaculars: Ben Hur Live, Batman Live and Walking with Dinosaurs Live – all adapted from film or TV productions and performed in London’s O2 Arena between 2007 and 2012. I contextualise the shows with the work of Cirque du Soleil, the Millennium Dome and the city of Las Vegas. However, I argue that the format reached its fullest expression in Britain with the opening ceremony to the London 2012 Olympics, Danny Boyle’s Isles of Wonder. This study proposes that there are specific affective and economic factors within neoliberal and post-cinematic society that make the spatialised, live and ‘unmediated’ performance of a known image or hypertext into an attractive commodity. The arena spectacular should be understood via post-cinematic image-making and the fluidity with which images move from screen, to site and back will be explored here as a commercial process of ‘remediation’. An aggregate of older devices and media that seems to be defined in heterotopic contradistinction to a digital media regime, this format can be explained through contemporaneous qualities of public space, immaterial labour, government and consumption. This analysis is an attempt at grasping the ‘offer’ of these products – through their advertising, merchandise and the shows themselves. What is their affordance; what experiences do they allow and how does this benefit both consumers and producers? Despite their economic and cultural marginality, perhaps these entertainment productions can be seen in some ways as archetypal products of the early twenty-first century.

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This study aims to understand the current state of the production processes of collective narratives in real-time and identify a different way, not yet experienced, to create Live Cinema pieces. Therefore, it starts from the narrative concept definition supported by the philosophical theories of Rolland Barthes and Walter Benjamin added to the aesthetic theories of digital media of Lev Manovich, the analysis of the types of cinematographic narratives of André Parente and authorship concept discussion according to researchers Lucia Santaella, Arlindo Machado and Antonio Miranda. From these definitions we identified the structural parameters of contemporary digital storytelling, which allowed the analysis of four current examples of collective production of stories in real time, distinguishing them as the kind of narrative created and the depth of the collective participation in its creation. As a result, this paper presents the specification of production real-time collective narratives system, which proves the discovery revealed by analysis and points the universe of possibilities that arise with the advent of digital technologies of information processing
Este estudo busca compreender o estado atual dos processos de produção de narrativas coletivas em tempo real e identificar uma forma diferente, ainda não experimentada, de criação de Live Cinema. Para tanto, parte-se da definição do conceito de narrativa apoiado nas teorias filosóficas de Rolland Barthes e Walter Benjamin somada às teorias estéticas sobre a mídia digital de Lev Manovich, da análise dos tipos de narrativas cinematográficas de André Parente e da discussão do conceito de autoria segundo os pesquisadores Lucia Santaella, Arlindo Machado e Antonio Miranda. A partir destas definições identificou-se os parâmetros estruturais das narrativas digitais contemporâneas, que permitiram a análise de quatro exemplos atuais da produção coletiva de histórias em tempo real, diferenciando-os quanto ao tipo de narrativa criada e a profundidade da participação coletiva em sua criação. Como resultado, este trabalho apresenta a especificação de um sistema coletivo de produção de narrativas em tempo real, que comprova a descoberta revelada pela análise e aponta o universo de possibilidades surgidas com o advento das tecnologias digitais de processamento da informação

This collection of essays explores the development of electronic sound recording in Japanese cinema, radio, and popular music to illuminate the interrelationship of aesthetics, technology, and cultural modernity in prewar Japan. Putting the cinema at the center of a ‘culture of the sound image’, it restores complexity to a media transition that is often described simply as slow and reluctant. In that vibrant sound culture, the talkie was introduced on the radio before it could be heard in the cinema, and pop music adaptations substituted for musicals even as cinema musicians and live narrators resisted the introduction of recorded sound. Taken together, the essays show that the development of sound technology shaped the economic structure of the film industry and its labour practices, the intermedial relation between cinema, radio, and popular music, as well as the architecture of cinemas and the visual style of individual Japanese films and filmmakers.

This book presents the bold and original proposal to replace the general appellation of ‘world cinema’ with the more substantive concept of ‘realist cinema’. Veering away from the usual focus on modes of reception and spectatorship, it locates instead cinematic realism in the way films are made. The volume is structured across three innovative categories of realist modes of production: ‘noncinema’, or a cinema that aspires to be life itself; ‘intermedial passages’, or films that incorporate other artforms as a channel to historical and political reality; and ‘total cinema’, or films moved by a totalising impulse, be it towards the total artwork, total history or universalising landscapes. Though mostly devoted to recent productions, each part starts with the analysis of foundational classics, which have paved the way for future realist endeavours, proving that realism is timeless and inherent in cinema from its origin.

Futurism and early cinema shared a fascination with dynamic movement and speed, presenting both as harbingers of an emerging new way of life and new aesthetic criteria. And the Futurists quickly latched on to cinema as a device with great potential to manipulate our perceptions in order to create a new world. In the edited collection Futurist Cinema, Rossella Catanese explores that conjunction, bringing in avant-garde artists and their manifestos to show how painters and other artists turned to cinema as a model for overcoming the inherently static nature of painting in order to rethink it for a new era.

Цель статьи: рассмотреть массового человека как главного агента социализации в социальном поле массовой культуры и мейнстрим-кинематографа. Методы: компаративистский, системный. Результаты: выявлены сущность и особенности массового человека как героя современной культуры и кино. Выводы: Массовый человек становятся эталоном поведения и жизни представителей новых поколений. Purpose of the article: to consider the mass person as the main agent of socialization in the social field of mass culture and mainstream cinema. Methods: comparative, systemic. Results: the essence and characteristics of the mass person as a hero of modern culture and cinema were revealed. Conclusions: Mass people are becoming the standard of behavior and life of representatives of new generations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.