Academic literature on the topic 'Long-tail line of business'

Core business and financial market risks are not easily reduced by standard operating procedures in insurance companies. Derivatives theoretically provide a cost effective vehicle to hedge these risks. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of derivative usage as well as the extent of derivative usage in the Australian insurance industry in both life and general insurance companies for the period 1997–1999. Empirical results for the Australian life insurance industry in general confirm the findings of UK and US based research. However, the Australian general insurance industry does not appear to follow the conclusions of previous literature. Our results indicate that for life insurers, the determinants of derivative usage were size, leverage and reinsurance. For the general insurance industry the determinants were size and the extent of long tail lines of business written. As regards the determinants of the extent of derivative usage, these were size and asset-liability duration mismatches for life insurers. For the general insurance industry the determinants of the extent of derivative usage were size, the extent of long tail lines of business written, and the reporting year.

AbstractWe introduce a stochastic model for the development of attritional and large claims in long-tail lines of business and present a corresponding “chain ladder-like” IBNR method which allows the use of claims payment data for attritional and claims incurred data for large losses. We derive formulas for the mean squared error of prediction and apply the method to a German motor third party liability portfolio.

AbstractThe upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the opportunities for the modelling of loss distributions are extended. The basic idea is the adjustment of a base distribution for their tails. The (generalised) Pareto distribution is used as base distribution for different reasons. The upper tail is in the focus and can be modelled well for special cases by a discrete mixture of the base distribution with a combination of the base distribution with an adapting distribution via the product of their survival functions. A kind of smoothed step is realised in this way in the original line function between logarithmic loss and logarithmic exceedance probability. The lower tail can also be adjusted. The new approaches offer the opportunity for stochastic interpretation and are applied to observed losses. For parameter estimation, a modification of the minimum Anderson Darling distance method is used. A new test is suggested to exclude that the observed upper tail is better modelled by a simple Pareto distribution. Q-Q plots are applied, and secondary results are also discussed.

Fishery is one of the human activities to utilize aquatic resources in fresh, brackish and marine waters. This effort is made to meet the needs of human life for the availability of animal protein for growth and as a source of meeting other economic needs. Fishery business consists of components that are interrelated with one another, namely capture fisheries and aquaculture and supported by marketing and processing of fishery products. One of the fishing gear used by fishermen around the coast is a hand line. The purpose of this study was to find out which light are effective in the operation of hand line fishing gear in Takalar waters. The data collection technique was done by using the trial method (Expermental fishing), by conduction trials using two different lamps, namely LED lights (light emitting diode) and petromax lamps. This research was conducted in Takalar Waters in July-August 2020. The results showed that the size structure of the squid and cuttlefish caught on the LED lights ranged from 6- 27.5 cm, totaling 310 tail, weighing 41.15 kg (69.51%), whilw the size structure of the squid caught in the petromax lamp ranges 9,5-27,6 cm totaling 136 tail, weighing 17.91 kg (30.49%), significantly different from the result of t-student.

ABSTRACT:Business ethics has made important strides over the past decades, but it has also suffered significant failures as witnessed by the long line of business scandals in the past half century. This paper discusses different forms that business ethics has taken in relation to the goal of businesses acting ethically. In the end, it maintains that a major challenge current business ethics faces is the lack of an account of business organizations as they ethically develop and change both individually and systemically within social and political conditions. Even if business ethicists can rationally defend what businesses should be doing, unless we can relate this to how businesses can come to operate in those ways, our normative arguments will lack power, persuasiveness, and effectiveness. Only if we are able to provide this analysis will our normative ethics fulfill the practical task it has taken upon itself.

A major concern of business with respect to transport-charging interventions is the context of revenue-investment policy, particularly how the timing of improvements may alter the time lags between fewer car journeys and more public transport journeys, and the problems for business in the intervening periods. The authors present a conceptual framework and case study of the whole-life effects on business performance. The impacts of charging occur as a sequence of gradually interacting changes, rather than as a single set of impacts, and positive amenity effects brought about through revenue hypothecation occur incrementally, taking years to achieve full effect. In the case study, a Delphi panel of business leaders predicted the time-marching effects of workplace-parking levies and road-user charging over a 24-year period in Nottingham. The findings revealed that the temporal nature of hypothecation results in minor fluctuations in performance for some business sectors in the first few years, but that these tail off as benefits gradually overwhelm disbenefits resulting in modest increases in performance for most sectors in the medium to long term. Many local authorities are reluctant to implement charging interventions due to concerns about economic vitality; it is expected that the results will inform policy and future research in this area.

This discussion meeting was on the subject of business ethics, with particular reference to the work of actuaries.As an introduction to the meeting, copies of the paper, ‘Business Ethics: the New Bottom Line’, by Sheena Carmichael, were distributed to members of the Institute.Sheena Carmichael is the director of ETHOS, a consultancy dedicated to helping organisations identify and manage ethical issues. She is a research associate at the European Institute of Business Ethics at Nigenrode University in the Netherlands.The paper ‘Business Ethics: the New Bottom Line’, was published in 1995 by Demos, which “is an independent think-tank committed to radical thinking on the long-term problems facing the United Kingdom and other advanced industrial societies.It aims to develop the ideas — both theoretical and practical — that will shape the politics of the 21st century, and to improve the breadth and quality of political debate.” It is a registered charity.The paper has not been reproduced in British Actuarial Journal, but further information can be obtained from:Demos, 9 Bridewell Place, London, EC4V 6AP; telephone: 0171 353 4479; facsimile, 0171 353 4481; email, martin@demos.demon.co.uk

FAD in the beginning when fishermen see hordes of pelagic fish congregate naturally around the objects floating on the surface. The level of eligibility criteria is top venture capital investment or long term investment in a particular production. The analysis needs to be done in order to know the development of the business at any given time. Field research conducted in July-August 2016, housed in the waters of West Aceh Meulaboh. Data retrieval is performed using the method of experimental fishing and survey (interview). Data were analyzed with the catch using a descriptive approach. The catch is that caught on portable FAD by using fishing line output with total as many as 622 tail and on traditional FAD as much as 1.171 tail for 30 trip. Portable FAD catches of 34.37% and traditional FAD of 65.63%. The investment required in portable FAD amounting to Rp 51.000.000. Total fixed costs incurred per annum on Rp 15.600.000 portable FAD and cost not fixed at RP 102.240,000. Tradisional FAD cost of Rp 53.000.000. Total fixed costs incurred per year amounting to 15.600.000 and cost is not a fixed amount of Rp 102.240,000. The results of calculations on venture portable FAD retrieved value NPV of Rp 20.137. 984, IRR of 36.86%, Net B/C of 1.39 and PP of 1.99 and on traditional FAD NPV values obtained amounting to 43.773.096, IRR of 60.30%, Net B/C of 1.83, PP amounting to 1.38. Financial analysis using bank rates of 14% by the year 2016. Keywords: Portable FAD, traditional FAD, West Aceh Waters

Purpose Becoming self-employed has appeal to both genders. For many women, balancing work and family is a key motivator. However, businesses owned and operated by women are often very small, with limited turnover. This potentially can have disastrous consequences when these women come to retire, unless a solid retirement savings strategy has been considered. The purpose of this paper is to outline many of the issues and implications of a lack of research in this area. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from 201 small business owners via a convenience sample derived from various databases. The survey was completed on-line and analysed using SPSS. Findings Many self-employed women in Australia have neither enough savings for their retirement, or an actual retirement plan. This is exacerbated by the lack of regulation requiring mandatory contributions into a superannuation (personal pension) fund by small business owners, unlike pay as you go employees, whose employers must contribute a certain about on their behalf. Social implications Middle-to-older aged women are the biggest cohort of homeless people in Australia. This is likely to grow as self-employed Baby Boomers stop working and find they do not have sufficient personal financial resources to fund their retirement. Originality/value Whereas there is much written about gender and small business ownership, as well as retirement and savings planning, these two areas have not been researched before in Australia. Yet it is an issue for the majority of small business owners, particularly women.

A Case Study on Long-tail Risks and Risk Mitigation in Risk Management.   How can Allianz Global Corporate and Specialty (AGCS) make best use of risk mitigation measures for drafting product liability policy wordings? A case study on Triclosan as a possible Endocrine Disruptor with the potential for Mass Litigation.   With external forces, the insurance industry has been facing issues since before  9/11 but the evolvement of risk managers and risk management programs in organizations has become a standard for all corporations due to the realization of the potential impact these external forces and risks possibly possess. These programs have emerged to reduce the risk and uncertainty factor that organizations are facing. The factors have been identified in previous literature, as the regulation through authorities (Carroll et al., 2016), the customer relationship that to a certain degree even embraces risk (Kerr, 2016), the agency risk in risk taking (Eling & Marek, 2013). In terms to prepare for these risks, the corporations need to go through a rescaling of their business which was associated with the establishment of Risk Management Processes on all levels (Thislethwaite and Wood, 2018). As such, the rescaling in general can be seen as a Risk Management (RM) structure that would framework the communication of risk in a company.   The insurer AGCS is studied on its Risk Management (RM) processes, especially in the fourth phase of RM which is the phase of risk mitigation or reduction. Here it has previously been identified there being no other possible ethical actuarial mitigation methods for long-tail risks (Carroll et al., 2016). Therefore, a risk with such categories was studied with the study on Triclosan. Triclosan is a widely spread and commonly used chemical substance with certain and uncertain causations that can pose several risks with one of them being the possibility of mass litigation. The underwriter tool to mitigate such long-tail risks has been defined as the policy wording which can be used to create an optimal contract in the product liability insurance to reduce the risk of mass litigation.    To answer the above research question, this study has taken an interpretivist stance and the form of a quantitative study to follow the framework of Yin’s (2009) case study approach. With the goal to research the meaning behind a phenomenon, rather than to quantify a phenomenon, the use of semi structured interviews with experts of the insurance industry was conducted. These experts were found in the departments of Allianz Risk Consulting, Underwriting, and Claims.    The findings, similarly to the previous research that has been discussed in the introductory chapter, found that there are certain macro forces that shape the risk mitigation phase and here the influence on the policy wording within was touched upon. It was found that regulations do play a vital part and pose as leverage for the insurer and a pillar that would carry the weight of policy wording. It has further been identified that the costumer relationship and the costumer strength in the market are responsible for a functioning risk mitigation and also that certain demands stemming from the market, will shape the product liability insurance. While the more specific answer to the research question was, yes, the corporate insurer should cover triclosan related risks on a claims-made basis, with serial-loss clause and a retroactive date, there would be other factors that influence the policy wording. The grounded theory that has been established in this research is thus;    To manage liability insurance coverage for long-tail risks, product liability policy wording language needs to reflect main pillars as being used for comparable base materials. This includes but is not limited to claims made trigger, retro-active dates and other coverage elements. Macro forces and drivers of the policy wording, include but are not limited to, costumer strength, market demand, risk perception and market regulations. To ensure a successful risk management on an enterprise level for coverage of long-tail risks, the above factors have to be accounted for when offering product liability coverage.   Based on the aforementioned theory, Triclosan is a manageable risk from a corporate liability insurers perspective, hence insurance coverage can be given under product liability policy wordings.   Here it is proposed that further research be conducted on the identified macro forces and their impact on the product liability insurance and the more general RM in organizations. Also, it is proposed to research such a possible framework for including the costumer in the process of risk mitigation in terms of reducing the risks form where they start with the starting point being at the costumer. This is a future vision that as such would need further research to reach scientific saturation.

This paper examines the long-run aftermarket performance of Swedish IPOs between 2000- 2016, including two market downturns (the burst of IT and housing bubble). The main objective is to investigate whether performance is explained in terms of firm maturity, which is the main contribution to existing literature. Hence, the final sample of 96 IPOs is ranked by the level of RE/TA ratio, a categorization defined by the life-cycle theory of dividend payouts proposed by DeAngelo et al. (2006). To assess the long-run performance of the different IPO portfolios, two methodologies are applied: BHAR and the Fama-French Three Factor regression. The main finding is that the Swedish IPOs underperform their benchmark reference portfolios 12, 24 and 36 months after the offering. Young IPOs, with low RE/TA, outperform on a one- year basis while no significant results were found for old IPOs with high RE/TA. On a longer term, young IPOs underperform their benchmarks while old IPOs outperform three years after the initial issue. There is no support that younger IPOs exhibit a higher level of underperformance in comparison to older IPOs in the long-run.

The primary purpose of this investigation was to examine the perceived development of life-long learning skills of Division I student-athletes and their non-athlete general student peers. Using grade point averages and graduation rates, athletics administrators are constantly evaluating the academic performance and growth of student-athletes by comparing their results with those of non-athlete general students. Though these traditional metrics are useful in many ways, there is little research on the self-reported development of life-long learning skills. Due to a changing global economy, employers are less concerned with the knowledge students possess at graduation and are more interested in a student’s ability to adapt to changes, think critically, and acquire information on their own and apply this new knowledge in an effort to create solutions to existing problems in a team based environment repeatedly over time. Collectively, these skills can be described as life-long learning skills. The Capacity for Life-Long Learning Index (CLLI), which is comprised of fourteen items from the College Student Experiences Questionnaire (CSEQ), purport to measure students’ perceived gains on academic skills relevant to life-long learning. This study compares scores on the CLLI for several different variables, including student-athletes, non-athlete general students, gender, class, and ethnicity to determine whether there were differences in the perceived gains in life-long learning skills. On the basis of the results of this study, the following conclusions seem warranted: 1. There were no significant differences in the CLLI score for student-athletes and non-athlete general students. viii 2. There were significant differences between the CLLI scores for female students, both student-athletes and non-athlete general students, and their male counterparts. 3. There were significant differences between the CLLI scores for senior students, both student-athletes and non-athlete general students, and their freshman student counterparts. 4. There were no significant differences between the CLLI scores among students of different ethnic groups. "

In the best of worlds, all marketing is relevant.

This study brings light to and creates understanding for how to capture the opportunities for target marketing, given by resent technical development and improvement.

Customers often perceive marketing on the internet as annoying, embarrassing, repetitive and sometimes even noisy. Companies have problems to focus their marketing efforts towards the areas which give most value for the marketing investments. The conflict between companies pushing the marketing messages to their customers, who are trying to avoid them, a growing mistrust is feed.

Well established businesses are challenged by new companies cutting in between the content providers and their customers. A new business model using the Long Tail phenomena is shaking the old media houses’ business position.

Smartphones and netbooks are merging into mobile devices, which release a number of opportunities for target marketing. This study states that mobile devices are personalized and as a consequence, open for the possibility of target marketing towards individuals. However, there are identified obstacles to overcome. One challenge lies in the balance between marketing benefits and preventing violation of the customers’ personal integrity.

From literature and case studies, light is brought to the state of practice of rules and regulations, old media houses Schibsted and Aftonbladet, search engine provider as Google and a marketing agency, Mobiento Mobile Marketing. 

Trends and best practices stick out as more important in order for a company to become a successful target marketing actor. A “target marketing house concept” points out four significant areas for companies to benefit from the power of target marketing in mobile devices.

Trough out of this study, protection of the personal integrity and personal data has been pointed out as a key factor for a mutual and trustful customer relationship. This is considered to be as a precondition, both for behaviour segmentation and for a joint rewarding customer dialogue.

Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited.
This thesis represents a cross Systems Command (NAVSEA/NAVAIR) developed product. The product - the Sunset Supply Base (SSB) system - provides a complete system for addressing the risks and supportability issues involved with Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) products in Navy combat and support systems. The SSB system was implemented on three Navy combat weapon systems at various phases of the product development life cycle. The main body provides to the Program Management Offices (PMO) and other decision makers, a high level summary of performance expectations. Appendix A - The Sunset Supply Base Architecture - identifies at a high level of abstraction a collaborative architecture providing a roadmap for design and development of the SSB system. Appendix B - The Systems Engineering Development and Implementation (SEDI) plan - is a prescriptive or "How to" manual describing activities that have been used to successfully implement the SSB system. Appendix C - Business Case Analysis (BCA) - presents the data collected as a result of SEDI plan implementation then addresses the business/programmatic attributes showing the viability and value proposition possible through the SSB system. Appendix D - The Marketing Plan for the SSB system - defines methods and practices necessary to establish the SSB system as the alternative of choice.
Chemical Engineer, United States Navy
Systems Engineer, United States Navy

The purpose of this research is to investigate the effectiveness of an Information Literacy intervention administered to first year Faculty of Business students at Rosebank College Cape Town. The exponential nature of information has led to students having access to abundant information which often comes unfiltered. This requires them to be in possession of life long competencies to find and apply this information to solve problems. Recent shifts in pedagogy and curricula have also precipitated the importance of independent learners who are capable of constructing their own knowledge. Student centred methods of teaching employed in tertiary institutions such as, problem based learning, evidence based learning and inquiry learning have necessitated the importance of Information Literacy training towards the development of independent learners. The study assesses the baseline incoming skills of the Faculty of Business students. Two intervention workshops are conducted for the experimental cohort and a post-test is administered. After the post-test the results of the control and experimental group are compared. The study uses the Association of College and Research Libraries (ACRL) Information Literacy Standards for higher education as a theoretical foundation. The standards are applied as benchmarks when assessing the Information Literacy competencies. The study explores the following research questions:  Are the Information Literacy interventions administered to the first year business faculty students effective and do they meet the proposed outcomes?  What are the existing Information Literacy competencies of the incoming students in the Faculty of Business?  How should Information Literacy programmes be delivered?  Are the ACRL standards a reliable tool to assess Information Literacy skills and the effectiveness of the interventions administered? The study found out that offering Information Literacy interventions would result in students accumulating these skills. This is supported by the difference in scores between the control group and the experimental cohort. However it must be noted that Information Literacy training is not an event but rather an on-going process.
Magister Bibliothecologiae - MBibl

Bakgrund: Generation Y riskerar få en lägre pension i framtiden än de som går i pensionidag. För att upprätthålla en acceptabel levnadsstandard krävs därför att de själva tar stortansvar för sitt pensionssparande. Det finns dock stor risk att deras finansiella beslutpräglas av beteendefinansiella faktorer och deras nivå av finansiell bildning. Utöver detfattar personer i olika demografiska grupper olika finansiella beslut. Generation Ybeskrivs dessutom som otåliga och har visat sig ha dåliga finansiella vanor. För att enacceptabel levnadsstandard ska kunna uppnås för Generation Y även då de är pensionärerär det därför viktigt att förstå vilka faktorer som kan påverka deras långsiktiga sparande. Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur beteendefinansiella faktorer,finansiell bildning samt demografiska faktorer samvarierar med svenska Generation Y:slångsiktiga sparande. Metod: Studien genomfördes med en kvantitativ metod där empiri i form av enkätdatabearbetats. En linjär multipel regressionsanalys har genomförts för att undersöka hur debeteendefinansiella faktorerna kortsiktighet, självkontroll och övertro, finansiell bildningsamt demografiska faktorer samvarierar med svenska Generation Y:s långsiktigasparande. Även t-tester har genomförts för att undersöka om skillnader för det långsiktigasparandet samt för de beteendefinansiella faktorerna förekommit för olika grupper. Slutsats: Studien visar att de beteendefinansiella faktorerna kortsiktighet, självkontrolloch övertro, samt den demografiska faktorn sysselsättning hade en statistiskt signifikantsamvariation med Generation Y:s långsiktiga sparande för studiens urval. Det fanns ävenstatistiskt signifikanta skillnader i nivå av kortsiktighet och övertro för olikademografiska grupper.
Background: Generation Y is at risk for a substantially lower public retirement incomparison to today's retirees. Therefore, it is of great importance that Generation Yunderstands the necessity of private savings to be able to maintain a sustainable standardof living throughout their lives. However, Generation Y's financial decisions might beinfluenced by behavioral biases, financial literacy and various demographic factors. Inaddition, Generation Y is described as impatient and have been found to haveunsustainable financial habits. For them to maintain a sustainable standard of livingthroughout their lives, it is therefore of great importance to understand what factors thatcorrelate with their long-term saving behaviour. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to examine how behavioural biases, financialliteracy and demographic factors correlate with the long-term saving behaviour amongthe Swedish Generation Y. Methodology: To adequately approach this study a quantitative research method hasbeen applied. The data was collected from a survey. A linear multiple regression analysiswas performed to examine the correlation between long-term saving and behaviouralbiases, financial literacy and demographic factors. Furthermore, t-tests were performedto examine the differences in the level of long-term savings and behavioural biases amongsub-groups. Conclusion: The study concludes that the behavioural biases present bias, self-controland overconfidence, and the demographic factor occupation had statistically significantcorrelations with the long-term savings of the Swedish Generation Y with regard to thesample in this study. Furthermore, there were statistically significant differences in thelevel of present bias and overconfidence in different demographic groups.

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This research is contextualized in the current domestic scenario: Brazil is going through a unique moment that will culminate in two athletic events of worldwide repercussions: the FIFA World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. These events impact several areas, including the fitness industry, which in its expansion takes advantage of the visibility generated by such events. With that in mind, the objective of this research was to analyze alternative business models in the fitness industry so as to contribute to its expansion. The alternative model selected was CrossFit, which international growth positions it as the unconventional fitness option of greatest expression, although it is not well known in Brazil.
Esta pesquisa está contextualizada no cenário nacional atual: o Brasil passa por um momento singular que culminará em dois eventos esportivos de repercussão mundial: a Copa do Mundo de Futebol em 2014 e as Olimpíadas em 2016. Estes eventos geram impactos nas mais diversas áreas, inclusive na indústria de fitness que, em sua expansão, aproveita a visibilidade gerada por tais acontecimentos. Tendo isto em vista, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar modelos alternativos de atuação no setor de fitness de maneira a contribuir para sua expansão. O modelo alternativo selecionado foi o CrossFit, cujo crescimento internacional o posiciona como a opção de fitness não convencional de maior expressão, ainda que pouco conhecido no Brasil.

Den här studien har undersökt vilken betydelse långvariga relationer har för samarbetsformerna mellan eventföretag och leverantörer i evenemangsprojekt. Studien utförde semistrukturerade intervjuer med eventföretag för att få en djupare förståelse. Sex framgångsrika eventföretag intervjuades, företagen hade antingen blivit nominerade eller vunnit branschtävlingen Gyllene Hjulet. För att skaffa sig en förståelse av vilken betydelse långvariga relationer har för samarbetsformerna har teorier om samarbete utgjort grunden för den teoretiska referensramen. Samarbetsformerna undersöktes med de fem samarbetsvariablerna: avsikt, symmetri av fördelar, interaktion, engagemang och förtroende. Teorier om projektlivscykeln och långvariga relationer förekommer också i den teoretiska referensramen. De fem samarbetsvariablerna undersöktes i projektlivscykelns faser; förstudie, planering och avslut för att undersöka samarbetet innan och efter genomförandefasen i evenemangsprojekt. Teorierna om långvariga relationer är i huvudsak till för att redogöra längden och fördelarna med att ha en långvarig relation. Studien kom slutligen fram till att de långvariga relationerna påverkar samarbetsformerna genom att arbetsprocessen blir effektiviserad och kvalitén på leveransen blir högre. Resultatet innebär att långvariga relationer har en positiv påverkan på samarbetsformerna och det gynnar både eventföretagen och leverantörerna.
This study has examined what significance a long-lasting relationship has for the forms of collaboration between Swedish event companies and suppliers in event projects. This study executed semi-structured interviews with event companies to accomplish a deeper understanding. Six successful event companies were interviewed, the companies had either been nominated or won the industry competition called Gyllene Hjulet. To acquire an understanding of the significance of a long-lasting relationship for the form of collaboration, theories about collaboration were included as the foundation for the theoretical frame of reference. The form of collaboration was analysed with the five collaboration variables: intention, symmetry of benefits, interaction, engagement, and trust. Theories about the project life cycle and long-lasting relationships are also included in the study’s theoretical frame of reference. The five collaboration variables are investigated through the phases in the project life cycle: initiation, planning and closure with the intention to study collaboration before and after the execution phase of the event projects. Theories about long-lasting relationships are mainly applied to define the length of the relationship, as well as what are its benefits. The study finally concluded that the long-lasting relationships affect the forms of collaboration by making the work process more efficient and the quality of the delivery higher. The result investigates that long-lasting relationships have a positive impact on the forms of collaboration, and it benefits both the event companies and the suppliers. Disclaimer this study is written in Swedish.

Quality became a very important issue in the markets especially in the food sector, as the competitiveness of business involved, depends largely on two factors, the price and the quality of the product. Nowadays quality is the primary factor for every firm that want to succeed in the market and flourish in the long run, an issue realized by all firms worldwide. In line with market requirements and specifically consumers needs, companies, in the industrial, services and food sector, apply total quality management systems (ISO, HACCP). In this context, traceability is among the issues that introduced in the agri-food sector to assure quality, food safety and food security; thus PA role is very important and will contribute more and more to food safety.

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

Sheep wool has been a resource we had access to for a very long time and it is widely used on large scale. It has remarkable properties of which people can take benefit from in many ways. After processing the sheep wool by using special machinery, it provides various applications in different industries such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, textiles, and fabrics. The main objective of this research is the analysis of a sheep wool processing line and the estimated start-up investment for this type of business in Romania. In this paper, the wool processing line was depicted, the necessary equipment was analyzed, and the total cost of investment was calculated, in order to conclude on the feasibility of the investment. The results of this research paper are taking into consideration the full value of the sheep wool and the profit that can be generated by processing it, as well as providing relevant data regarding time and costs of starting a business in Romania, analyzing the sustainability and profitability of the raw material that can be found in Romania. Sheep wool is a high potency raw material for multiple industries, and it can provide a big margin for obtaining profit by processing it.

Abstract As a resourced based economy, Malaysia relies heavily on the energy oil, and gas industry - a critical sector contributing to the economic growth of the Malaysian economy; which makes up in the range of 20% - 25% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia as of 2017. No analysts can properly predict prices of the future, with the highs and lows of crude and natural gas and renewables as the fuel of the future and are perhaps new way of things. This "new normal" in which countries, including Malaysia, must learn to adapt in a more agile manner to the "new way of work" of increased productivity and efficiency (de Graauw, McCreery, & Murphy, 2015). In adapting to the new normal, measures of increased productivity must continue to be pushed forward and implemented. Energy companies and services provider still need to continue with exploration and development (E&P) operations and activities to meet long term strategic objectives and demands of the nation, in line with the aspirations of the national oil company, however, it needs to add more value to every dollar spent as margins have continued to shrink and reduce profit margins of energy producers. This is where Digital Transformation comes into play and the urgency for implementation has gone from novelty solutions to critical business survival. Changing industry trends such as Industrial Revolution 4.0 have made it more prevalent than ever to make better use of capital at a time when productivity is essential. At the same time, the industry needs to continue to explore and develop to meet long-term demands, which continues to grow albeit slower than before.

Network organizations are organizational structures consisting of coordinating basic capabilities and resources in line with their own responsibilities and roles, even though geographically distant businesses are experts in a particular field or function. Businesses are involved in to the networks for reducing uncertainty in global competition, gaining flexibility, acting quickly, and providing capacity, benefiting from resources and talents they cannot have alone, and providing information. However, it is also possible for enterprises to maintain their assets in the network and to benefit from the competitive advantage of the network through providing trust between businesses and ensuring trust. The purpose of the study is to reveal how trust is defined among the enterprises within the network organizations and what constitutes the trusting elements. The universe of the research constitutes businesses operating in Uşak and located in national or international networks with contract manufacturing. The study was conducted using qualitative research method and interview technique. According to research findings; it has been seen that business owners are positively anticipating other businesses within their business networks and they have been working for a long time with the companies which they trust and watching the businesses they have not been trusting for a while and ending their cooperation. According to business owners participating in the interview, trust is equivalent with the fulfilment of given promises, goodwill, quality and intra-family relationships. At the same time, it was stated that trust depends on the businesses; and so, religion, language and race differences are not important.

Abstract Objectives/Scope The world is changing rapidly. In order to response to VUCA conditions, we started the business transformation of GPN scientific and technical center (STC) in the mid 2019, and finished shortly after COVID crisis began (in June 2020). Now we can sum up the ultimate effect: Methods, Procedures, Process GPN STC made a long way since 2007 and became a strong corporate engineering center, providing a full range of services from the basin modeling to the integrated modeling. In 2019, we started the transformation from the description of objectives, and for these purpose, the survey of different business branches was performed. After that, we defined the shortcomings of the existing model (which was actually inside the organizational and administrative area), such as: The transformation met all the challenges and made dramatic changes in the area of management and processes: We transformed STC works catalogue to product line and shift from instruments (such as geomodel) to business value (such as exploration strategy, based on geomodel). Now we focus on integrated analytical framework in support of key business decisions, rather than methodsor processes.The above shifting requires new roles and competences, thus we completely rebuild role model and staffing table. We initiated new role of account manager for every internal business customer, that is typically used in service companies, not in-house centers, and here we saw fantastic results and received positive feedback from business. The new role of discipline leader helped to increase speed of team gathering for new projects from average 7 weeks to 3-4 weeks;We removed 2 levels of hierarchy and moved on to "flattened" organizational structure;We initiated the internal business consulting team, responsible for implementation all of the conceptual decisions (which will be a new service for internal business customers in future);The single-contract principle was suggested, and the orders inside of this according to product line were initiated, where account manager is the person, responsible for implementation of this contract;Product transformation was supported by organizational agile transfrormation for cross-functional teams (Mohamed Saeed AlMarar, 2019);And a lot of another important changes (which will be described in final presentation); Results, Observations, Conclusions It is important to highlight again, this deep and ambitious transformation allowed STC to obtain sustainable target indexes/KPIs and business results: Novel/Additive Information We were the first (at least in Russian O&G industry), who shifted the entire corporate engineering center for product model, with focus on business value and now we perform strong operationalization of concept in order to push all changes into real life.

With the completion of the second line project of West-East Gas Transmission in 2011, the third line of West-East Gas Transmission will be started soon and the fourth line and the fifth line will be started in recent five years. China will form one of the largest natural gas pipeline network in the world. The gas supply mode will be changed from single gas source and single-pipeline supply to multi-source and multi-pipeline supply through regulation and coordination, which will impact on existing pricing mechanism and operation mode of Chinese natural gas industry violently. Depending on the development trend of natural gas pipeline network, the regionalization management mode of natural gas pipeline will be implemented gradually. Chinese natural gas industry also needs to develop a new-type market-oriented operation mode with clear interfaces between production, transportation, distribution and customers so as to facilitate the optimal allocation of resources. By the customized scientific research of CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation), combining with existing pricing mechanism of natural gas pipeline and economic characteristics of long-distance natural gas pipeline transportation in China, the paper studied the pricing mechanism problem of combined transportation of multi-source and mutli-pipeline gas supply in the regionalization management mechanism, presented the idea of pricing formulation method of two kinds of pipeline network transportation based on standard rates of pipeline transportation and service cost rules, formed pricing formulation system of natural gas pipeline transportation, introduced the design idea, structural construction, distribution method and key points of natural gas pipeline transportation in details, and demonstrated the methods by example calculation. The methods presented in the paper can meet the pricing requirements of natural gas pipeline network transportation, remedy the defect in existing price accounting mechanism, solve the problem that the income and expenses among different interest bodies are not balanced, and facilitate the rapid development of natural gas pipeline business.

In modern plant operations, a well-planned preventive maintenance programme is vital to reliable and long-life operation of motors and generators. Many companies lack such a programme due to the high cost and intricacy associated with employing major sensing techniques for monitoring live equipment status. This paper presents the findings of a pilot project that was to design a low cost Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) based system paired with the Internet of Things (IoT) communications to create a preventive maintenance programme that could provide real-time updates for installed motors and generators at a particular site. The basic system would incorporate ultra-high frequency RFID sensor tags for monitoring vibration and temperature, fixed RFID readers with antennas, and a based unit (built around a personal computer) with access to the internet. This is an on-line RFID-based monitoring system. The RFID tags would allow the connection of the physical assets to the digital world having a direct effect to a company’s business drivers such as cost savings, greater operational efficiency, and increased productivity. Installing the basic system on a trial basis is recommended. It is anticipated that, the RFID based system could provide a long-term solution to the current problems of complex and expensive data collection

This paper addresses the experience, knowledge, and expertise that Duratek has acquired while performing environmental remediation at two large low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities in the United States. Environmental remediation and related waste disposal has been the company’s primary line of business line since it was founded in 1969. It has disposed of more than half of the low-level radioactive waste generated in the U.S. over the past thirty years, working with almost every radioactive waste generator in the country. That experience has allowed the company to develop a unique understanding of safe, efficient, and cost-effective LLRW disposal methods. The paper also tracks the history of waste disposal technology at the Barnwell Disposal Site in South Carolina and the U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF) at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. In particular, it describes the evolution of trench design, operations, and disposal procedures for these facilities. It also discusses the licensing of one the most active waste disposal sites in the U.S., the success of which has been assured to customers and stake-holders because of: • Well trained personnel who are dedicated to the design, construction and operation of safe and efficient disposal facilities; • Commitment to strong community relations; • Comprehensive knowledge of proven disposal strategies, technologies, and management practices; • Capability and readiness to respond rapidly to routine and emergency situations; • Established record of comprehensive and responsive communications with regulatory authorities; • Commitment to quality, compliance and personnel health, and safety; and • Financial systems that ensure long-term facilities management.

1999 marks an important anniversary for Enbridge Pipelines Inc. of Canada and its U.S.-based affiliate, the Lakehead Pipe Line Company Ltd.: for 50 years we have been the primary link between the large oil production areas of western Canada and major market hubs in the U.S. midwest and eastern Canada. In retrospect, this strong history of success is chiefly due to thorough and logical planning and choice selection in all aspects of company endeavors. At Enbridge, as in countless other firms in a wide-range of industries, decision making was often the product of expert consensus and years of solid experience in dealing with similar situations. This approach has worked well for Enbridge and our stakeholders for five decades, as evidenced by the reliability, efficiency, and safety record of our pipeline system. However, as the millenium nears, we are increasingly finding formalized processes that integrate quantitative models and qualitative analysis helpful in planning and execution for both the short- and long-term. Several broad trends at the root of this movement include the heightened pace of change; the increasingly complex web of relevant factors; the growing magnitude of the consequences associated with sub-optimal decisions; the need for thorough documentation; and the apparent benefits of a framework that enables objectivity and consistency. In short, an approach that completely and systematically evaluates the multitude of dynamic factors that affect the ultimate outcome of the matter at issue is necessary. Although the term “risk management” is now often used to describe this process, Enbridge — along with many other responsible firms in the pipeline operating and other industries — has always practiced the underlying principles. This paper addresses the background of “risk management” in both the Canadian and U.S. pipeline industry, as well as accepted theory. It also encompasses the progression of risk management at Enbridge Pipelines, up to and including current initiatives. The usefulness of risk analysis, risk assessment, and risk management tools will be discussed, along with the overriding necessity of a well thought-out process, firm corporate commitment, and qualified expertise. Much of the focus will address the ongoing evolution and maturity of a comprehensive and well-integrated risk management program within the Enbridge North American business units. The criticality of maintaining focus on the core business function — in this case, pipeline operations — will also be addressed. In addition, past learning’s as well as future opportunities and challenges will be reviewed.

This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.

Millions of dollars are involved in high-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure construction and maintenance. Large-scale projects like HSR require funding from a variety of avenues beyond those available through public monies. Although HSR serves the general public’s mobility needs, any funds (whether State or Federal) flowing from the public exchequer usually undergo strict review and scrutiny. Funds from public agencies are always limited, making such traditional financing mechanisms unsustainable for fulfilling HSR’s long-term operational and maintenance cost needs—on top of initial costs involved in construction. Therefore, any sustainable means of financing HSR projects would always be welcome. This research presents an alternate revenue generation mechanism that could be sustainable for financing HSR’s construction, operation, and maintenance. The methodology involves determining key HSR stations, which, after development and improvement, could significantly add value to businesses and real estate growth. Any form of real estate taxes levied on properties surrounding such stations could substantially support the HSR project’s funding needs. In this research, a bi-objective optimization problem is posed in conjunction with a Pareto-optimal front framework to identify those key stations. With 28 California HSR stations used as an example, it was observed that the four proposed HSR stations in Fullerton, Millbrae-SFO, San Francisco Transbay Terminal, and San Diego would be excellent candidates for development. Their development could increase the economic vitality of surrounding businesses. The findings could serve as valuable information for California HSR authorities to focus on developing key stations that would generate an alternate funding source for an HSR project facing funding challenges.

The article deals with the ways in which social networks and the blogosphere influence the formation and implementation of a PR campaign. Examples from the political sphere (election campaigns, initiatives), business (TV brands, traditional and online media) have revealed the opportunities that Facebook, Telegram, Twitter, YouTube and blogs promote in promoting advertising, ideas, campaigns, thoughts, or products. Author blogs created on special websites or online media may not be as much of a tool in PR as an additional tool on social media. It is noted that choosing a blog as the main tool of PR campaign has both positive and negative points. Social networks intervene in the sphere of human life, become a means of communication, promotion, branding. The effectiveness of social networks has been evidenced by such historically significant events as Brexit, the Arab Spring, and the Revolution of Dignity. Special attention was paid to the 2019 presidential election. Based on the analysis of individual PR campaigns, the reasons for successful and unsuccessful campaigns from the point of view of network communication, which provide unlimited multimedia and interactive tools for PR, are highlighted. In fact, these concepts significantly affect the effectiveness of the implementation of PR-campaign, its final effectiveness, which is determined by the achievement of goals. Attention is drawn to the culture of communication during the PR campaign, as well as the concepts of “trolls”, “trolling”, “bots”, “botoin industry”. The social communication component of these concepts is unconditional. Choosing a blog as the main tool of a marketing campaign has both positive and negative aspects. Only a person with great creative potential can run and create a blog. In addition, it takes a long time. In fact, these two points are losing compared to other internet marketing tools. Further research is interesting in two respects. First, a comparison of the dynamics of the effectiveness of PR-campaign tools in Ukraine in 2020 and in the past, in particular, at the dawn of state independence. Secondly, to investigate how/or the concept of PR-campaigns in social networks and blogs is constantly changing.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.