Dissertations / Theses: 'Macroeconomic developments'

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Demopoulos, George D., and Emmanuel K. Fratzeskos. "Macroeconomic developments and problems in the transition process of the Bulgarian economy." Universität Potsdam, 1998. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/4882/.

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This paper analyses the macroeconomic developments which have taken place in the Bulgarian economy in the period 1993-1997. The paper also looks at the institutional arrangements and the process of economic policy-making in the country. In this context the problems the Bulgarian economy has experienced in the transition process towards a market-oriented economy are also studied. The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 looks at the institutional arrangements and the process of economic policy-making through 1995. Section 3 studies the deep economic crisis in 1996 and points out what went wrong in that period. Section 4 continues studying the economic crisis of the Bulgarian economy as well as the problems in the transition process during the first half of 1997. Section 5 looks at the economic developments during the second half of 1997 and points to the prospects for growth in 1998. Section 6 deals with the Bulgarian financial institutions and the existing institutional arrangements. Finally, Section 7 concludes the paper.

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Watt, Andrew [Verfasser], and Arne [Akademischer Betreuer] Heise. "Explaining unemployment developments in Europe : the role of wage-setting institutions and macroeconomic policies / Andrew Watt ; Betreuer: Arne Heise." Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1177241803/34.

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Almeida, Rodrigo Bonecini de 1987. "Liberalização, crise e rearranjo macroeconômico da ASEAN-4 e da Coréia do Sul." [s.n.], 2013. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/286082.

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Orientador: André Martins Biancareli
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: A partir dos anos 1980 medidas de liberalização da economia foram amplamente disseminadas para os países periféricos, principalmente pelas instituições multilaterais de Bretton Woods. Desde então os países da periferia não adotaram de maneira homogênea este conjunto de reformas econômicas e reorientações de políticas econômicas. Num primeiro momento a dissertação enfatiza como Filipinas, Tailândia, Malásia, Indonésia (Asean-4) e Coréia do Sul seguiram alguns dos preceitos de liberalização econômica, dentre as quais se sobressaíram à abertura das contas financeiras do balanço de pagamentos e a desregulação de diversos mercados domésticos, inclusive o financeiro. Em seguida, aponta-se como a execução destas e de outras medidas tiveram como consequência o surgimento da crise asiática na segunda metade da década de 1990, interrompendo por alguns anos o processo de desenvolvimento dos países afetados. Na década subsequente não ocorreu semelhante episódio. Parte-se da hipótese de que a estes países, para evitarem novas crises e manterem suas economias em trajetórias sustentáveis de desenvolvimento, reviram de forma exitosa suas políticas macroeconômicas no início do século XXI, adequando-as a um contexto de integração produtiva regional na Ásia e de expansão internacional da demanda agregada. Nesse sentido, o objetivo da dissertação é compreender como, neste contexto regional e internacional, a desvalorização do câmbio e sua estabilização por meio de intervenção governamental via acumulação de reservas, taxas de juros cadentes e maior ativação da política fiscal destes países na pós-crise permitiram menor instabilidade em meio a uma trajetória de forte crescimento
Abstract: Liberalization measures were widely spread in the periphery of capitalism throughout the 1980s and 1990s, especially by the World Bank and the IMF. Since then, many countries have adopted those propelled economic reforms and economic policy reorientation. Although with national nuances, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia (Asean-4) and South Korea have followed some of the economic liberalization prescriptions. In which stands out the opening of capital accounts of the balance of payments and the deregulation of many domestic markets, including the financial markets. The application of these and other measures have brought, as consequence, the rise of the Asian crisis in the second half of the 1990s, curtailing in some years the economic development of affected countries. The hypothesis sustained is that these countries, in order to avoid new crises and keep their economies in a path of sustainable development, revised their macroeconomic policies in the wake of the XXI century. Thus, the purpose of this dissertation is to understand how post-crisis exchange rate depreciation and stabilization - brought about by government intervention in exchange markets via reserve accumulation -, falling interest rates and active fiscal policy in these countries helped lessen economic instability, without the threat of a crisis like the one started in 1997
Mestrado
Desenvolvimento Econômico
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

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Henriques, Ewerton de Souza. "Para além da estabilização: uma contribuição da "macroeconomia do desenvolvimento" para o caso brasileiro." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2011. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9166.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
This thesis attempts to systematize the alternative proposals for the conduct of economic policy in Brazil, based on the Macroeconomics of Economic Development, also known as the Macroeconomics of the New-Development based of Keynesianism thought. This is a proposal to reconcile economic growth with stability. Initially we will study the foundations of Orthodox Macroeconomics, which has been used in Brazil since 1999, in the monetary, fiscal and exchange rate regime. Then we will analyze the Brazilian experience to illustrate his anti-growth bias. Then we will study the foundations of Keynesian macroeconomics, in order to understand its economic interpretation of reality. Finally, using the Keynesian framework, we will make a synthesis of proposals that are part of the Macroeconomics of Economic Development, as a set of macroeconomic policy alternatives to those that have been implanted
Esta dissertação pretende sistematizar as propostas alternativas de condução da política econômica brasileira, baseadas na Macroeconomia do Desenvolvimento Econômico, também conhecida como Macroeconomia do Novo-Desenvolvimentismo de cunho keynesiano. Trata-se de uma proposta que compatibiliza crescimento com estabilidade econômica. Inicialmente estudaremos as bases da Macroeconomia Ortodoxa, que tem sido empregada pelo Brasil desde 1999, nos âmbitos monetário, fiscal e cambial. Em seguida faremos uma análise da experiência brasileira para ilustrar seu viés anti-crescimento. Em seguida estudaremos as bases da Macroeconomia Keynesiana, como forma de compreender sua interpretação econômica da realidade. Por fim, utilizando do arcabouço keynesiano, faremos uma síntese das propostas que fazem parte da Macroeconomia do Desenvolvimento Econômico, como um conjunto de políticas macroeconômicas alternativas às que têm sido implantadas

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Pátková, Monika. "Hlavní faktory působící na vývoj národního pojistného trhu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-116243.

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The aim of my thesis was to analyze the assessment of developments in the national insurance market in recent years, including the selected trends which it operates. The first chapter focuses on the development of national economy. This is essentially a development of selected economic indicators: GDP, inflation rate and unemployment rate. The second chapter focuses on the general characteristics of the insurance market. This chapter is mainly devoted to specific indicators of the insurance market and that it also deals with insurance companies, which are evaluated according to various criteria. Another part of my thesis are devoted to developments. Specifically, the trends and non-life insurance, which is a general characteristic, current trends and insurance products at the end of the selected trends. These two chapters end with a brief comparison with the values of the European Union. In the following section are discussed in more detail the general trends: the asymmetry of information, protection of the client, the principle of single license, insurance fraud, the development of information technology and bancassurance. The last chapter consists of developments in the regulation of insurance - IFRS 4 and Solvency II. The conclusion is devoted to forecast the future development of the insurance market.

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Salles, João Moreira. "Essays in development macroeconomics." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-26032012-203751/.

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Developing macroeconomics is less about looking for ways to say that economic rules stemming from research in developed countries don\'t apply to emerging-markets, than it is about trying to understand the many stages these economies go through in the natural course of their development. There are, of course, exceptions, but economic phenomena tend to have common sources. These are, after all, generated by the incentives, designed or natural, that people face when dealing with their day to day decisions as they go about their everyday lives. In the two essays that follow, we try to stay true to that fundamental belief. Instead of searching for the proverbial \"jabuticaba\", we strive to understand how countries in different stages of development deal with a fundamental feature of \"growing pains\": crises, be they imported or locally generated. In the first essay, we look at an entirely novel feature of (some) developing economies: the potential to implement certain countercyclical policies when faced with an external shock. During the financial crisis of 2007-2009, to respond to a sudden stop in capital flows, many central banks in emerging market economies relied on credit policies. We build a quantitative small open economy model to study these credit policies. The main innovation of our setup is the presence of two imperfect credit markets, one domestic and the other international, and of two types of firms. The exporter is assumed to have access to both credit markets, while the wholesale firm can only borrow in the domestic market. During a sudden stop, exporters, faced with higher spreads for international credit lines, repay part of their foreign debt, tap the local market for funds and cause spreads to increase in the domestic market. This increases financing costs for all firms, causes a deterioration of the balance of payments and depresses output. Calibrating the model to match Brazilian data, we assess the effects of two policies implemented by the Central Bank of Brazil: (i) lending to exporters using previously accumulated foreign-exchange reserves and (ii) expanding credit in order to reduce spreads in the domestic market. The model suggests that both policies probably raised GDP, but that the latter may well have decreased welfare. Moreover, had the central bank not been able to use foreign reserves as the source of funding, lending to exporters would also have reduced welfare. In the second essay, we look at less promising situations, when countries are faced with default. In this work, we take a broader view, noticing that some of the salient features of the theoretical literature on sovereign debt, including its prediction that almost all defaults should arise in \"Bad Times\", are at odds with the data: over 38% of defaults actually occur in \"Good Times\", as measured by an HP filter. We explore the specific characteristics of both types of default. We first review some definitions of good and bad times, revealing that the resulting classification can differ greatly and have important implications for the overall analysis. Then, we present econometric evidence that failures to repay foreign debt in good times can, usually, be rationalized by three components: (i) changes in the political environment, (ii) hikes in global interest rates and (iii) instances in which good HP times actually take place under quite poor economic conditions. Finally, we present some suggestive indications that the duration of the episodes varies substantially with the type of default that precedes them as well as with the environment in which they occur, drawing some important implications for the understanding of economies\' post-default market access.
Diferentemente do que se imagina, a chamada macroeconomia do desenvolvimento tem menos a ver com a tentativa de encontrar justificativas para afirmar que os fundamentos da pesquisa econômica não se aplicam a mercados emergentes, do que, de fato, com o intuito de entender os diversos estágios pelos quais passam essas economias no curso normal de seu desenvolvimento. Existem, é claro, exceções, mas os fenômenos econômicos, em sua maioria, apresentam fatores comuns. Estes decorrem, afinal, dos incentivos, desenhados ou naturais, encontrados pelos agentes nas decisões do dia a dia. Nos dois artigos que seguem, buscamos respeitar essa concepção dos fatos: nos esforçamos para entender como países em diferentes fases de desenvolvimento enfrentam uma característica fundamental do processo de crescimento, as crises - importadas ou geradas localmente. O primeiro ensaio está centrado em uma característica completamente nova de (certos) países em desenvolvimento: a capacidade de implementar certas políticas contracíclicas quando submetidos a choques externos. Durante a crise de 2007-2009, vários bancos centrais de países emergentes reagiram à parada brusca nos fluxos de capitais através de políticas de crédito. Construímos, no artigo, um modelo quantitativo de uma pequena economia aberta para estudar essas políticas de crédito. A principal inovação em nossa estrutura é a presença de dois mercados imperfeitos de crédito, um doméstico e outro internacional, servindo a pelo menos um de dois tipos de firmas. Assume-se que o exportador tem acesso a ambos os mercados, enquanto o atacdista (wholesale firm) só toma empréstimos no mercado doméstico. Durante uma parada brusca, os exportadores, face a spreads mais elevados para linhas de crédito internacionais, repagam parte da sua dívida externa e usam o mercado doméstico para se financiarem, elevando, dessa forma, os spreads no mercado local. O custo de financiamento, portanto, cresce para todas as firmas, deteriorando o balanço de pagamentos e deprimindo o produto. Calibrando o modelo com base nos dados da economia brasileira, analisamos os efeitos de duas políticas implementadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil: (i) empréstimos a exportadores usando reservas internacionais previamente acumuladas, e (ii) expansão do crédito com vistas a reduzir o spread no mercado doméstico. O modelo sugere que as duas políticas são capazes de elevar o PIB, porém a segunda provavelmente reduz o nível de bem-estar. Ademais, se o banco central não houvesse usado as reservas como forma de financiar os empréstimos aos exportadores, tal política também teria impactos negativos no bem-estar. No segundo artigo, de cunho empírico, estudamos situações menos promissoras, nas quais os países enfrentam a possibilidade do calote em suas dívidas internacionais. Tomamos um ponto de vista mais amplo, notando que algumas das características fundamentais da literatura teórica sobre dívida externa, incluindo a previsão de que quase todos os defaults deveriam ocorrer em \"períodos ruins\", não encontram respaldo nos dados: mais de 38% dos calotes ocorrem em \"períodos bons\", na definição do Filtro HP. Começamos pela revisão de algumas das definições de períodos bons e ruins, mostrando que as classificações podem variar substancialmente, impactando a análise de modo geral. Em seguida, apresentamos algumas evidências econométricas de que calotes na dívida externa durante períodos bons podem ser explicados por três componentes: (i) mudanças no ambiente político, (ii) aumentos nas taxas de juros internacionais, e (iii) instâncias em que o Filtro HP apresenta períodos bons apesar da real situação econômica bastante negativa. Por fim, apresentamos alguns resultados que sugerem que a duração dos episódios de default depende do tipo de default, assim como do ambiente em que o calote ocorre. Tal resultado abre o caminho para novas pesquisas sobre o acesso de economias aos mercados internacionais de crédito após um default.

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Walker, Sébastien. "Essays in development macroeconomics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.712398.

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Saes, Beatriz Macchione 1987. "Macroeconomia ecológica : o desenvolvimento de abordagens e modelos a partir da economia ecológica." [s.n.], 2013. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/286070.

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Orientador: Ademar Ribeiro Romeiro
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: O principal objetivo da dissertação é discutir a necessidade de uma estrutura analítica que se pode chamar de macroeconomia ecológica e sistematizar o debate acerca do tema. O trabalho tem como hipótese que existe uma deficiência da economia ecológica, de caráter metodológico, no que diz respeito à discussão de políticas macroeconômicas. A abordagem econômico-ecológica considera o caráter biofísico e entrópico dos processos econômicos, que fundamenta sua crítica paradigmática ao mainstream da economia, mas ainda não consolidou uma macroeconomia correspondente a essa visão. Consideramos que esse seria um avanço importante, pois forneceria bases para a discussão de políticas e reformas macroeconômicas condizentes com a finalidade de viabilizar uma economia ecologicamente sustentável. Essa finalidade depende da compreensão de relações entre os sistemas econômico e ecológico, caracterizadas por grande grau de incerteza e complexidade, e da determinação da escala ótima da macroeconomia - que implica a necessidade de abandono do objetivo de promover o crescimento econômico ilimitado. Tendo em vista a perspectiva da economia ecológica, identificamos que o esforço de construção de uma macroeconomia ecológica tem tomado duas direções. A primeira é de aprofundar e sistematizar duas iniciativas, que propõem uma sociedade pós-crescimento - a condição estável e o decrescimento. A outra consiste em construir modelos macroeconômicos que permitam abranger as relações entre variáveis econômicas e ambientais e que trabalhem com limites à escala do sistema econômico. Concluímos afirmando que, embora avanços importantes tenham sido realizados, a macroeconomia ecológica ainda apresenta contornos vagos, sendo necessários maiores esforços para consolidá-la
Abstract: The main objective of this dissertation is to discuss the need for an analytical framework that can be called ecological macroeconomics and systematize the debate on the subject. This work has hypothesized that there is a deficiency in ecological economics, of a methodological character, with regard to the discussion of macroeconomic policies. The economic-ecological approach, which considers the biophysical and entropic nature of the economic process, generates a paradigmatic criticism of mainstream economics. However, a macroeconomics corresponding to this vision has not yet been consolidated. We believe that this consolidation would be an important advance, since it would ground the discussion of macroeconomic policies and reforms consistent with the purpose of facilitating environmentally sustainable economy. This goal depends on understanding relationships between ecological and economic systems, characterized by great uncertainty and complexity, and determining the optimal scale of the macroeconomy - which implies the need to abandon the goal of promoting unlimited economic growth. Given the perspective of ecological economics, we identified that the effort to build an ecological macroeconomics has taken two directions. The first is that of deepening and systematizing two initiatives that propose a post-growth society - steady-state and degrowth. The other is that of building macroeconomic models that enable including the relationships between economic environmental variables, which work with limits to the scale of the economic system. We conclude by stating that although significant progress has been made, the ecological macroeconomics still has vague contours, requiring greater efforts to consolidate it
Mestrado
Desenvolvimento Economico, Espaço e Meio Ambiente
Mestra em Desenvolvimento Econômico

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White, Howard. "The macroeconomic impact of development aid." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.279409.

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Subramaniam, Giridaran. "Essays in Macroeconomics and Development:." Thesis, Boston College, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:108829.

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Thesis advisor: Ryan Chahrour
Thesis advisor: Fabio Schiantarelli
This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter, "The Supply-Side Effects of India's Demonetization", investigates the supply-side effects of a unique monetary shock – the 2016 Indian demonetization – that made 86% of currency in circulation illegal overnight. Exploiting cross-sectional variation in firm and industry characteristics that correlate with cash usage and exposure to the informal sector, I find that firms that use cash more and obtain larger shares of labor or material inputs from the informal sector, experienced declines in their labor and material shares after demonetization. I also show that casual laborers were more likely to report being unemployed in the months following demonetization. These findings document a supply channel for demonetization and also show that cash plays an essential role in India's informal sector. Crucially, given that India's formal sector is highly dependent on the informal sector for labor and materials, any shock to the supply of cash is likely to have affected the economy as a whole. In the second chapter, "Directed Lending and Misallocation: Evidence from India", joint with Deeksha Kale, we leverage a natural experiment to study whether targeted credit policy can help reduce misallocation. In 2006, the Government of India modified the definition of small firms thereby expanding eligibility to a directed credit program. We show that the credit policy changed eligible firms' input wedges and thereby reduced misallocation. For firms with initially higher MRPK, the policy resulted in relatively larger increases in physical capital and decreased the MRPK. This policy moderately reduced within-industry dispersion of MRPK and increased aggregate productivity. Finally, in the third chapter, "Victims of Consequence: Evidence on Child Outcomes using Microdata from a Civil War", joint with Sajala Pandey, we study the short-run impacts of violent events on child time allocation, curative health-care, and education. Exploiting spatial and temporal variation in exposure to local-level armed conflict, we find that an increase in violent events: (i) leads to an increase in contemporaneous hours worked by children, with the effect being substantial for agricultural work; (ii) decreases the likelihood of parents taking their children to visit a health-care facility to seek curative care; and (iii) results in a reduced likelihood of attending school, along with a decline in years of education. Overall, the results indicate that the war affected schooling and time allocation of boys whereas girls were less likely to get curative health-care
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2020
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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Ordoñez, Guillermo Luis. "Essays on learning and macroeconomics." Diss., Restricted to subscribing institutions, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1621829911&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=1564&RQT=309&VName=PQD.

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Park, Ji Hoon. "Financial development, fiscal policy and macroeconomic volatility." Thesis, University of York, 2015. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/16287/.

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This thesis examines empirically the effect of financial frictions and public debt on economic variables and seeks for an appropriate fiscal consolidation strategy. First, the thesis explores the determinants of output volatility, especially the roles of financial development and government debt. The analysis, based on a panel of 127 countries over four decades, employs system GMM dynamic panel regression. According to the regression results financial development is estimated to have a non-linear effect on output volatility. Increased government debt levels are statistically associated with increased macroeconomic volatility. However, we need to interpret the results carefully due to endogeneity problems. The effect of the interactions between the two is insignificant. Second, it analyses the role of financial frictions on economic fluctuations. When the three models are compared with the U.S. data along the second moments, the firm friction model helps in fitting some macroeconomic variables and outperforms the other models. In the impulse response functions, we find that financial frictions greatly amplify and propagate the effects of the exogenous shocks on economic variables. Specially, the firm friction model shows more persistent response than the bank friction model. In addition, the size of the response depends on the leverage in the model with financial frictions. Third, the thesis considers how the effects of fiscal policy consolidation differ depending on alternative strategies. To do this, we develop an open economy DSGE model with an endogenous risk premium mechanism. The government consumption cut has larger negative effects on output than the government investment cut because of a complementarity with private consumption. The response of the tax hike is smaller than the expenditue cut because the tax hikes reduce more debts and the lower risk premium crowds in consumption and investment. Among three fiscal rules, the expenditure adjusted rule is the most effective for both preventing the economic downturn and reducing government debt.

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Hassan, Fadi. "Essays in international and development macroeconomics." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2013. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/912/.

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The thesis comprehends four chapters: the first chapter concerns with the positive correlation between cross-country price level and per-capita income, which is generally regarded as a stylized fact renowned as the Penn-Balassa-Samuelson effect. The chapter provides evidence that the price-income relationship is actually non-linear and that it turns negative in low income countries. The result is robust along both cross-section and panel dimensions. The main contribution of this chapter is to uncover a new empirical regularity such that the price level firstly decreases and then increases along the development process. The second chapter argues that, in order to capture the non-monotonicity of the price-income relationship, we need a modified Balassa-Samuelson framework that accounts for the fact that low-income and high-income countries have very different economic structures and are at different stages of development. Particular emphasis needs to be put on the relevance of the agricultural sector in poor countries and for . The contribution of this chapter is to show that a model linking the price level to the process of structural transformation captures the non-monotonic pattern of the data. The third chapter departs from the Balassa-Samuleson framework and analyses the price-income relationship in a multisector Eaton-Kortum model of trade. The chapter shows that also within this framework a negative-price income relationship emerges. This provides further support to the empirical result shown in the first chapter and additional insights on the determinants of such relationship. The fourth chapter focuses on the relationship between foreign capital flows and income inequality in emerging countries. Developing countries experience a prolonged period of real exchange rate overvaluation after they have opened their capital and current account. This real exchange rate overvaluation is associated with rising income inequality within a country. The chapter provides evidence of a significant positive correlation between net capital flows and the Gini coefficient. The chapter presents also a model connecting the dynamics of the balance of payments with a search and matching model of the labor market. This provides a useful analytical framework to disentangle the mechanisms that can link foreign capital flows to income inequality through the impact of real exchange rate adjustment on the price of labor and quantity of employment.

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Naval, Navarro Joaquin. "Essays on development economics from a macroeconomic perspective." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/402243.

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Aquesta tesi es centra en diferents aspectes relacionats amb el desenvolupament economic. Primer estudia els efectes de la emigració internacional en la desigualtat econòmica als països d’origen dels emigrants. Es construeix un marc teòric que reprodueix la relació en forma de U inversa entre la desigualtat i el nivell de desenvolupament tal i com va descriure Kuznets. A la vegada considera la decisió a emigrar de manera endògena i és capaç de replicar les relacions observades entre emigració i educació. S’observa que els treballadors altament qualificats emigren més que no pas els mig o poc qualificats. A més, en els països en desenvolupament, observem que si els costos migratoris són baixos, llavors els traballadors poc qualificats emigren més que no pas els mig qualificats, mentres que si són alts, els mig qualificats emigren més que els poc qualificats. També s’estableix que l’evolució de la tecnologia juntament amb els costos migratoris determinen els efectes de la emigració en l’educació, els ingressos i la desigualtat econòmica en diferents països. El model associa la migració amb els ingressos a través de les remeses enviades pels migrants als països d’origen. Les prediccions del model són que en els estadis inicials de desenvolupament, els ratis migratoris augmenten i la migració augmenta la desigualtat econòmica al llarg del temps si els costos migratoris són alts. En estadis més avançats de desenvolupament o si els costos migratoris són molt baixos, els ratis migratoris i la desigualtat decreixen al llarg del temps. En el següent capítol, s’explora el sector informal com una causa de multiplicitat d’equilibris a llarg termini dels països. El model estableix una relació entre desigualtat salarial, acumulació de capital humà, treball infantil i nivell de desenvolupament en el llarg termini que és consistent amb els següents fets estilitzats: el sector informal és menys productiu i principalment fa servir treballadors poc qualificats. Quan l’informalitat augmenta, la proporció de treball infantil augmenta i la proporció de persones amb educació universitaria decreix. L’alt nivell de desigualtat en els països en desenvolupament és inconsistent amb les prediccions fetes pels models teòrics amb complementarietat entre treballadors molt i poc qualificats (fent servir els paràmetres estàndard de la literatura). El model pot generar equilibris transitoris amb informalitat o trampes de pobresa degudes a l’informalitat. La calibració del model amb les dades dóna suport al cas de la trampa de pobresa. Tot i que l’informalitat protegeix els treballadors poc qualificats de l’extrema pobresa en el curt termini, en el llarg termini fa que les nacions en desenvolupament no convergeixin cap als nivells de riquesa dels països desenvolupats. En el següent pas s’analitza l’efectivitat de polítiques de desenvolupament per intentar que els països sortin de la trampa de pobresa. Els experiments numèrics mostren que els subsidis a l’educació són el més econòmics. L’últim capítol intenta explicar perque els països africans no han experimentat el mateix creixement que els països desenvolupats tot i que els nivells de capital humà i de població urbana han crescut entre els més ràpids del mon. Les dades revelen una associació positiva entre l’acumulació de capital humà, població urbana i creixement econòmic per diferents països i a través del temps. Donada aquesta paradoxa, es fa servir una hipòtesis de costos d’ajustament per tractar d’explicar-la. Segons aquesta hipòtesi, el baix, o inclós negatiu, rendiment de l’educació en el curt termini pot ser degut a costos transitoris d’ajustament. Es construeix un model senzill sota aquesta hipòtesis i la majoria dels paràmetres es calibren fent servir estimacions de tipus panell en el període comprés entre l’any 1975 i el 2000. Una vegada s’han calibrat els paràmetres del model, aquest es fa servir per comparar simulacions amb les sèries històriques d’Àfrica i altres regions per confirmar la validesa del model. La calibració del model prediu un creixement econòmic per les properes décades però a la vegada prediu que no s’espera observar convergència en els nivells de riquesa dels països en desenvolupament cap als països desenvolupats.
In this dissertation I firstly study the effects of international migration on income inequality in the origin country of migrants. A theoretical framework is built to reproduce the inverted- U shape relationship between inequality and level of development stated by Kuznets. The model also endogeneizes the decision to emigrate and it is able to replicate the stylized facts on relations between migration and education. These stylized facts show that, overall, highly skilled workers emigrate more than medium- and low-skilled workers. In regards to developing countries however, a different pattern exists which is that, low-skilled workers are more likely to emigrate than medium-skilled workers if migration costs are low, whereas the latter is reversed if migration costs are high. In addition, it is established that the evolution of technology, together with migration costs determines the effects of migration on education, income and wealth inequality within different countries. The model associates migration and income in the origin country through remittances sent by migrants to their family. The predictions of the model claim that in the initial stages of development, migration rates increase and migration enlarges economic inequality over time for high migration costs. At more advanced stages of development or in the case that migration costs are low, migration rates and wealth inequality decline over time. Secondly, I explore the informal sector as a source of multiplicity of equilibria in the long-run level of countries’ development. The model establishes a relationship between wage inequality, human capital accumulation, child labor, and long-run growth, which is consistent with the following stylized facts: the informal sector is less productive and mainly uses low-skilled workers. As informality increases, the proportion of child labor is increased and the share of college educated individuals is decreased. The high level of wage inequality in developing countries has been found to be inconsistent with the predictions presented by theoretical models with complementarity between high- and low-skilled workers (research based on standard parameters). Then, quantitative theory is used to explore the implications of the above mentioned factors. The model can generate transitory informality equilibria or informality-induced poverty traps. Its calibration reveals that the case for the poverty-trap hypothesis is strong: although informality serves to protect low-skilled workers from extreme poverty in the short-run, it prevents income convergence between developed and developing nations. Hence, different development policies are analyzed in an attempt to exit the poverty trap. The numerical experiments show that subsidizing education is the most cost-effective policy option. Finally, last chapter attempts to explain why African countries have not experienced the same growth as more developed countries even though their rate and pace of human capital levels and urban population are among the highest in the world. The data reveals a positive association between human capital accumulation, urbanization and growth both over time and across countries. Taking the latter into account, an adjustment-cost hypothesis is put forward to explain this paradox. According to this hypothesis, it is argued that low or negative social return to education in the short-run might be due to the transitory adjustment or urbanization costs. A simple model is built based around this hypothesis. Furthermore, most of the structural parameters of the model are calibrated using panel data estimations from 1975 to 2000. Once parameters are calibrated, the model is used to compare simulations with the historical data on Africa and other regions to confirm the validity of the model. The calibrated model predicts an economic take-off for the next few decades, however no full convergence with high-income countries is expected to be realized.

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15

Liu, Fan. "Essays in macroeconomics and microfinance." Diss., University of Iowa, 2017. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/5553.

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This dissertation contributes to studies in macroeconomics, microfinance, entrepreneurship, financial technology innovation (FinTech), and economic development. In particular, I study unbanked problems and evaluate microfinance programs. Chapter 1 studies quantitatively how a microfinance program in the U.S. affects occupational choice, firm size, credit access, wages, output, inequality and welfare. The general equilibrium model has heterogeneous agents, a bank with a minimum loan size requirement and a microfinance institution (MFI) with a loan interest rate that exceeds the bank's. Four microfinance program policies are evaluated: alternative minimum loan size requirements, changes in the loan cost wedge (due to innovation or regulation), changes to the level of the government subsidy, and alternative MFI sustainability requirements. We find that MFIs can have significant welfare effects for some individuals. In Chapter 2, I introduce a microsavings program for low-wealth individuals in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The model incorporates that (i) traditional banks require a minimum savings deposit size, causing some individuals to become “unbanked,'' and (ii) banks and non-profits partner to offer microsavings programs to the unbanked. The paper finds that microsavings programs increase the percentage of entrepreneurs by providing collateral that the previously unbanked can use to start firms, and wages increase, which benefits workers. Second, government subsidies for microsavings programs expand the size and number of firms, but output and workers may decline when funding the program requires higher income taxes. Third, bank sector deregulation (i.e., lower transaction costs in the financial sector) leads to higher output per capita, wages, and firm numbers, and possibly lower income inequality among entrepreneurs. Finally, technological innovations that decrease deposit transaction costs, such as mobile banking, reduce funding pressure on microsavings programs, but have little effect on the percentage of entrepreneurs, firm size, entrepreneur returns or wages.

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16

Peters, Michael. "Essays on the macroeconomics of economic development." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/72839.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2012.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 157-164).
Chapter 1 contains a theory of misallocation. In contrast to a recent literature where misallocation stems from imperfect input markets, I study an economy with non-competitive output markets. This change of focus has two implications. In the cross-section of firms, static misallocation, i.e. the dispersion of marginal products, is not driven by constraints limiting expansion possibilities, but reflects the distribution of mark-ups. Dynamically, the distribution of mark-ups and the economy-wide rate of productivity growth are jointly determined by firms' innovation and entry incentives. The observed cross-country variation in the degree of misallocation might therefore be a symptom of more fundamental differences in the innovation environment. Using firm-level data from Indonesia, I present both reduced form evidence for this mechanism and estimate the models' structural parameters. In chapter 2, I study the interaction between migration and firms' technology choices. If firms can adapt their production technology, changes in labor supply will induce biased technological adoption. I test this hypothesis using data from one of the largest population transfer programs of the 20th century. After WW2, Germany lost part of its Eastern Territories. Within 2 years, more than 8m people were expelled and transferred to Western Germany. Using individual-level data of the 1960s and 70s I show that refugees experienced substantial reallocation into unskilled occupations, that refugee-rich counties have higher employment shares in occupations which require little formal human capital and that wages in those occupations are especially high in refugee-rich counties. In chapter 3, which is joint work with Joaquin Blaum and Claire Lelarge, we use a comprehensive dataset of French manufacturing firms to study firms' import behavior. We first document a new fact on the extensive margin of international trade: most firms source only few differentiated varieties of a given product internationally. We then build a simple model based on productivity differences across firms and show that in contrast to the literature on exports, more productive firms do not necessarily source their products from more countries. On the intensive margin, the theory has one robust implication: expenditure shares across varieties should be equalized in the cross-section of firms. While the data is supportive of this prediction across foreign varieties, more productive firms are subject to "home-bias" in that they spend too much on domestic inputs.
by Michael Peters.
Ph.D.

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17

Avramis, Nicholas. "Investigating the macroeconomic determinants of RDP house prices in South Africa." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25094.

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The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables and South Africa's affordable housing market using basic multivariate regression analysis. This paper empirically examines whether increases in RDP house prices can be explained by or attributed to the movements in gross domestic product (GDP), prime lending rate (RATE), the stock market (JSE) and inflation (CPI). As an exploratory paper in nature, data of RDP resales prices from eight major metropolitan cities in South Africa was collected from the Centre of Affordable Housing Finance (CAHF) for the period 2007 to 2015. The findings from the regression analysis show that only JSE is a key determinant of RDP housing prices in South Africa. Since there was no a statistically significant relationship that could be found between affordable housing price movements and GDP, RATE and CPI, this study suggests that hedonic variables should be used in future studies, as well as accounting for regional differences. Notwithstanding, since the resale of RDP homes is a new dimension in the real estate market and whose introduction is also still at its infancy in South Africa, an examination of the RDP home prices is important to the financiers (financial institutions), investors, housing authorities, the government and other interested stakeholders who might want to have an understanding of the factors that drive the prices of these homes in South Africa. The results from this study, therefore, play a role in informing these parties as they allow them to make better decisions in terms of whether to make financing available (financial institutions), policy formulation or direction (government) and whether to invest or sale (other stakeholders).

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18

Koutroumpis, Panagiotis. "Research on futures-commodities, macroeconomic volatility and financial development." Thesis, Brunel University, 2016. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/13989.

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This thesis consists of eight studies that cover topics in the increasingly influential field of futures- commodities, macroeconomic volatility and financial development. Chapter 2 considers the case of Argentina and provides a first thorough examination of the timing of the Argentine debacle. By applying a group of econometric tests for structural breaks on a range of GDP growth series over a period from 1886 to 2003 we conclude that there are two key dates in Argentina's economic history (1918 and 1948) that need to be inspected closely in order to further our understanding of the Argentine debacle. Chapters 3 and 4 investigated the time-varying link between financial development and economic growth. By employing the logistic smooth transition framework to annual data for Brazil covering the period 1890-2003 we found that financial development has a mixed (either positive or negative) time- varying effect on growth, which depends on trade openness thresholds. We also find a positive impact of trade openness on growth while a mainly negative one for the various political instability measures. Chapter 5 studied the convergence properties of inflation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980-2013. By applying recently developed panel unit root/stationarity tests overall we are able to accept the stationarity hypothesis. Similarly, results from the univariate testing procedure indicated a mixed evidence in favour of convergence. Hence next we employ a clustering algorithm in the context of multivariate stationarity tests and we statistically detect three absolute convergence clubs in the pre-euro period, which consist of early accession countries. We also detect two separate clusters of early accession countries in the post-1997 period. For the rest of the countries/cases we find evidence of divergent behaviour. For robustness check we additionally employ a pairwise convergence Bayesian framework, which broadly confirms our findings. Finally, we show that in the presence of volatility spillovers and structural breaks time-varying persistence will be transmitted from the conditional variance to the conditional mean. Chapter 6 focuses on the negative consequences that the five years of austerity (2010-2014) imposed on the Greek economy and the society in general. To achieve that goal we summarize the views of three renowned economists, namely Paul De Grauwe, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz on the eurozone crisis as well as the Greek case. In support of their claims we provide solid evidence of the dramatic effects that the restrictive policies had on Greece. Chapter 7 analyzes the properties of inflation rates and their volatilities among five European countries over a period 1960-2003. Unlike to previous studies we investigate whether or not the infl ation rate and its volatility of each individual country displayed time-varying characteristics. By applying various power ARCH processes with structural breaks and with or without in-mean effects the results indicated that the conditional means, variances as well as the in-mean effect displayed time-varying behaviour. We also show that for France, Italy and Netherlands the in-mean effect is positive, whereas that of Austria and Denmark is negative. Chapter 8 examines the stochastic properties of different commodity time series during the recent fi nancial and EU sovereign debt crisis (1997-2013). By employing the Bai-Perron method we detect five breaks for each of the commodity returns (both in the mean and in the variance). The majority of the breaks are closely associated with the two aforementioned crises. Having obtained the breaks we estimated the power ARCH models for each commodity allowing the conditional means and variances to switch across the breakpoints. The results indicate overall that there is a time-varying behaviour of the conditional mean and variance parameters in the case of grains, energies and softs. In contrast, metals and soya complex show time-varying characteristics only in the conditional variance. Finally, conducting a forecasting analysis using spectral techniques (in both mapped and unmapped data) we find that the prices of corn remained almost stable while for wheat, heating oil, wti and orange juice the prices decreased further, though slightly. In the case of natural gas, coffee and sugar overall the prices experienced significant defl ationary pressures. As far as the prices of oats, platinum, rbob, cocoa, soybean, soymeal and soyoil is concerned, they showed an upward trend. Chapter 9 examines the effect of health and military expenditures, trade openness and political instability on output growth. By employing a pooled generalised least squares method for 19 NATO countries from 1993 to 2010 we fi nd that there is a negative impact of health and military expenditures, and political instability on economic growth whereas that of trade openness is positive.

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Downing, Gareth Martin. "Decentralisation, corruption and economic growth : a macroeconomic perspective." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2015. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/decentralisation-corruption-and-economic-growth-a-macroeconomic-perspective(d56fc93e-4dcc-473b-b22f-611e4c544c43).html.

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This thesis represents a contribution to the literature on the relationship between decentralisation, corruption, and economic growth. This relationship is analysed both theoretically and empirically. The first chapter investigates one of the channels through which decentralisation can potentially affect corruption and economic growth. The analysis uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to gain further insights into the effects of decentralisation on the structure of corruption. The results suggest that decentralisation, by bringing the people closer to government, can enable corrupt local government officials to internalise the effects of their behaviour. It thereby generates an incentive for officials to moderate their bribe demands. This has positive effects for investment and economic growth. The second chapter examines a potential trade-off that may occur when countries embark on a program of decentralisation. On the one hand decentralisation may improve the information problems that plague overly centralised governments, but at the same time it can potentially lead to a loss of control as discretionary power is granted to local officials without implementing the required accountability mechanisms. The results of the analysis suggest that while decentralisation can potentially reduce corruption an aid economic performance in the long run, it may inevitable lead to increased corruption in the short-run. A key idea is that extra care must be taken to introducing accountability structures at the local level, but that these will likely take time before becoming effective, so that in the near term corruption may increase. In the third chapter the relationship between decentralisation, corruption and economic growth is analysed empirically, using panel data techniques. While previous studies have looked at the relationship between decentralisation and corruption, or between decentralisation and growth, or between corruption and growth, few have looked at the joint relationship between the three. Moreover, previous studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. To overcome this, the Generalised Method of Moments technique is employed; an approach that has not been used on this topic before. It is shown that, while there is evidence that corruption hampers economic growth, the effects of decentralisation are ambiguous. The chapter highlights the inherent difficulties in analysing the effects of decentralisation, which is a complex and multifaceted concept that is impossible to fully capture in the data. This suggests that empirical studies will inevitably be limited in their ability to fully assess a relationship as nuanced as this. The implication is that further investigation at the theoretical level is required. Overall, the thesis provides support for the idea that decentralisation can potentially lead to beneficial outcomes, both in terms so of combating corruption and in wider economic terms. However, it also suggest that care must be taken when implementing reforms as these beneficial outcomes a far from certain.

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20

Jauch, Sebastian. "The macroeconomics of saving, debt and financial development." Diss., Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-159176.

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21

Riesing, Kara. "THE EFFECTS OF DESTRUCTION: A MACROECONOMIC STORY." UKnowledge, 2019. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/economics_etds/47.

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Destructive events such as natural disasters and terrorist attacks occur not only in developing economies but also developed economies. Consequently, the response of these economies has been observed in case of both type of events. This dissertation is a collection of essays regarding natural disasters, terrorist attacks and the macroeconomy. Specifically, I examine the response of local labor markets that reflect a wide spectrum of economies, but also have a safety-net in the form of being part of a developed country in the aftermath of a violent tornado. Further, I explore the heterogeneity in the economies response to natural disasters and terrorist attacks. Additionally, I investigate the effects of terrorism on growth and its disaggregated value added components. The first chapter focuses on the effects of tornadoes on local labor markets. I examine the change in local labor markets caused by extreme tornadoes that occur in counties of the contiguous United States. I also investigate the effect these tornadoes have on neighboring counties and evaluate the labor market response in urban and rural counties separately as well. Using a generalized difference-in-difference approach on quarterly data spanning from 1975 to 2016, I find that counties experience persistently higher wages per worker two years following a violent tornado. The effects on urban county can be observed on employment, while the effect in the rural county is observed on wages per worker. Further, evaluating the response of labor markets by sectors reveals the industrial sectors that experience increased labor market activity. The second chapter evaluates the long-run effects of natural disasters and terrorist attacks on growth and the channels through which they affect growth. Using the conceptual framework of a Solow-Swan model I examine an unbalanced annual panel of 125 countries spanning from 1970 to 2015 and find that domestic terrorist attacks, floods, and storms have a similar negative effect on growth, while transnational terrorist attacks and earthquakes have no significant effect on growth. Examining the channels through which they affect growth brings to the forefront the differences between these different types of events. I find that domestic terrorist attacks lead to increased military expenditures in their wake, while floods lead to increased non-military expenditures in their aftermath. Reviewing the data by developed and emerging economies reveals that developed economies are better able to absorb the shock of terrorist attacks as well as natural disasters. I find that although emerging economies are able to absorb the shock of transnational and domestic terrorist attacks, they experience some adverse effects from floods and storms. The third chapter examines the path of GDP growth and its disaggregated industrial, service, and agricultural sector value added components in the aftermath of two types of terrorism - transnational and domestic terrorism. Using a panel VAR model on cross country annual data from 1970 to 2015 I find that fatalities caused by neither domestic nor transnational terrorist attacks lead to a significant change in GDP growth. Examining the disaggregated industrial, service, and agricultural sector components of GDP growth reveals that even disaggregated the value added components of GDP growth experience no adverse effects from the deaths caused by transnational and domestic terrorist attacks. I also distinguish the emerging economies from the entire sample to find that GDP growth in emerging economies experience no significant effects due to the casualties of transnational and domestic terrorist attacks.

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22

Bhate, Rucha. "Essays in Macroeconomics of Emerging Markets." Thesis, Boston College, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/3877.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Thesis advisor: Christopher Baum
My dissertation focuses on the macroeconomics of emerging and developing nations. This group of economies is characterized by significant differences in terms of institutional quality, financial development, as well as other cultural, social, political parameters. In turn, these structural heterogeneities exert considerable influence on their domestic economic environment, specifically impacting key macroeconomic indicators such as output, investment, consumption, foreign capital flows, exchange rates etc. Understanding these nuanced relationships and analyzing them from various dimensions has served as the motivation and the foundation of my doctoral research. The first essay is an empirical and theoretical investigation of Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Dynamics in post-independence India. India's growth performance was touted as ordinary relative to the rest of the world during the first three decades after it gained independence in 1947. However, path-breaking deregulation and liberalization reforms in the 80s and 90s led to substantial growth acceleration and India's metamorphosis into a market-based economic system with strong international ties. This makes the Indian case study really unique and fascinating. Using annual time series data, we document key business cycle properties of the Indian economy. Output, consumption and investment are more volatile in India compared to its developed country counterparts. As in developed countries, consumption is less volatile and investment is more volatile than output in the Indian data. In contrast, investment is not highly correlated with output in India. Moreover, India's economic landscape has undergone significant changes, both in terms of the absolute level and cyclical fluctuations, across the planning horizon. The presence of structural break is reported for major macroeconomic variables when we decompose the data into pre- and post-reform categories. We also test whether a standard real business cycle (closed economy) model with India-specific parameters can replicate the stylized features of the business cycle. The model includes a tax on capital income which acts as a disincentive for future investment, and the results indicate that a high volatility of the tax shock is required to produce the low investment output correlation. The model performs reasonably well in matching the correlation dynamics observed in the data. In the second essay, I examine Foreign Reserve accumulation in Developing Countries through the lens of Institutional Quality and Financial Development. In recent times, several emerging markets have been providing the rest of the world, and especially the United States, with net resources in the form of current account surpluses. The most noteworthy aspect of the surge in upstream foreign capital flows has been the enormous increase in international reserves held by several emerging economies. Whereas private capital flows are broadly in sync with the standard neoclassical model, capital outflows from relatively high-productivity emerging markets can be explained by the accumulation of official reserve assets. I investigate the foreign reserve dynamics in developing countries; from both an empirical and theoretical dimension. Using a novel panel dataset combining aspects of openness, institutional quality, and financial development and an innovative clustering method; I present a new approach to identify cross-national structural heterogeneity and assess its relationship with foreign reserves. I use partition-based cluster analysis to document underlying reserve dynamics and identify systematic variation across and between different country groups. The resulting cluster outputs reflect the presence of cross-national variations in reserve accumulation. Moreover, a series of the scatter plots encapsulating various dimensions of institutional quality and financial development points towards the resounding presence of structural heterogeneity in foreign reserve dynamics in our developing country sample. Cross section and panel data regressions reinforce the initial hypotheses concerning the role of institutional and financial development in international reserve dynamics of the developing world. I also build a theoretical model embedding the key insights from the empirical analyses in order to propose a coherent framework for explaining the link between institutions, financial development reserve accumulation. The model underscores the importance of financial market efficiency and the institutional environment in explaining reserve dynamics of major developing countries. A series of comparative static exercises shed light on the impact of heterogeneity in institutional parameters and foreign reserve policy on select macroeconomic variables. In a nutshell, by going beyond the regional differences, we provide a unique vantage point to understand how disparities in institutional and financial conditions influence reserve dynamics in different country clusters. Our results indicate that income, openness, institutional quality and financial development play an instrumental role in explaining the underlying patterns of reserves accumulation in the developing world. However, the effects of these structural indicators are markedly different across clusters of relatively similar countries in terms of their magnitude as well as direction
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

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23

Apostolova-Mihaylova, Maria R. "MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS AND MICROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY." UKnowledge, 2014. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/economics_etds/16.

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This dissertation focuses on the relationship between the education-based fertility gap and economic growth and on policy as a determinant of fertility. In the first essay I evaluate the impact of differential fertility (the difference between fertility rates of women with high educational attainment and women with low educational attainment) on economic growth by accounting for critical marginal effects and the general level of educational attainment in a given country. I also examine the possibility that this effect varies based on level of inequality and income levels. I find that for a less developed country with high income inequality, higher fertility rates of women with lower education has a favorable impact on economic development. In the second essay I examine the transmission and magnitude of the effect of differential fertility on economic growth at the subnational level. I explore the relationship between differential fertility and economic growth in a cross-U.S. state context. I find that a larger gap in fertility rates between highly-educated and less-educated women is strongly associated with a decrease in the rate of long-run economic growth across U.S. states, even after accounting for the levels of inequality and overall fertility. In the third essay I explore policy as a determinant of the education-based fertility gap. I use the 2007 Massachusetts healthcare reform which provides a good setting for evaluating the effect of an exogenous policy on the fertility. I find that fertility increases among young married women and decreases among young unmarried women but that there is no asymmetrical fertility response based on the education level of the mother.

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24

Aragão, Roberto Barbosa de Andrade. "Produtividade e complexidade econômica: uma análise do caso brasileiro." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/16460.

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In the context of economic development, this study has as its main objective to explorer the relationship between international trade and productivity. After making a wide review on theories of international trade and theories of economic development, we seek to determine the causal relationship between these two variables. The question that follows refers to the direction of causality, i.e., productivity, generates international trade or international trade generates productivity? This work suggests that both directions are possible and the difference is just in the productivity component being analyzed. Thus, productivity at the product level (structural) generates trade, as argued Smith (1776) and Ricardo (1817), but trade generates productivity (within) as argued Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007) and McMillan and Rodrik (2011). Further, the study makes a comprehensive analysis of the methods of decomposition of productivity, concluding that there is more than one way of doing this decomposition and the interpretation of each of these approaches differ and may bias the findings. In addition, the decomposition of productivity is made in its components in two distinct databases: 10-Sector Database of GGDC and national accounts of IBGE, concluding that, depending on the base, the results can vary significantly. Similarly, within a structuralist approach, this research differentiate sectors that have the greatest growth potential from traditional sectors with lower growth potential. Defining the complexity of exports as the concept developed by Hausmann at al (2014), this investigation estimates using Brazilian data, through a dynamic panel model, the coefficients of a suggested equation to explain variations in the static structural productivity effect. The estimated model suggests that the complexity of exports significantly and positively affects the structural component of productivity. Thus, it can be said that exports of more sophisticated products boosts productivity through its structural component.
No contexto do desenvolvimento econômico, este trabalho tem como principal objetivo explorar a relação entre comércio internacional e produtividade. Após fazer uma ampla discussão sobre as teorias do comércio internacional e as teorias do desenvolvimento econômico, busca-se definir a relação de causalidade entre essas duas variáveis. A pergunta que se segue refere-se ao sentido da causalidade, ou seja, produtividade gera comércio ou comércio gera produtividade? Esse trabalho sugere que os dois sentidos são possíveis e a diferença encontra-se justamente no componente da produtividade que está sendo analisado. Assim, produtividade, no nível do produto (intrasetorial) gera comércio, tal como argumentam Smith (1776) e Ricardo (1817), mas comércio gera produtividade (intersetorial) tal como argumentam Hausmann, Hwang e Rodrik (2007) e McMillan e Rodrik (2011). Na sequência, o estudo faz uma ampla análise dos métodos de decomposição da produtividade, concluindo que existe mais de uma forma de se fazer essa decomposição e que a interpretação de cada uma dessas abordagens difere podendo enviesar as conclusões. Adicionalmente, é feita a decomposição da produtividade nos seus componentes utilizando duas bases de dados distintas: 10-Sector Database do GGDC e contas nacionais do IBGE, concluindo que, a depender da base, os resultados encontrados podem variar significativamente. Da mesma forma, dentro de uma abordagem estruturalista, diferenciam-se setores que possuem maior potencial de crescimento de setores tradicionais com menor potencial de crescimento. Definindo a complexidade das exportações a partir do conceito desenvolvido por Hausmann at al (2014), estimam-se para o caso brasileiro recente, através de um modelo de painel dinâmico, os coeficientes de uma equação para explicar variações no efeito intersetorial estático da produtividade. O modelo estimado sugere que a complexidade das exportações impacta significativa e positivamente o componente estrutural da produtividade. Assim, pode-se dizer que uma pauta de exportações com produtos mais sofisticados favorece o crescimento da produtividade via seu componente intersetorial.

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25

Wills, Samuel Edward. "Macroeconomic policy in resource-rich economies." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:a7050812-cec5-47f6-912b-d00252c3d69f.

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This thesis considers how fiscal and monetary policy should be conducted in resourcerich economies. It consists of three papers addressing: whether governments should spend, save or invest volatile oil income; the assets they should save in; and how monetary policy should respond. The first, “Eight principles for managing resource wealth”, shows that capital-scarce countries should save relatively less against oil price volatility, and invest more in domestic capital. They also should prepare for volatility in advance, and treat savings as a source of income rather than a temporary buffer. To show this the paper develops a framework that nests a variety of existing results, which are presented in eight principles. The second, “The Elephant in the Ground: Oil extraction and asset allocation in sovereign wealth funds”, shows that governments should use sovereign wealth funds to offset oil price risk, extract oil faster if its price is pro-cyclical, and use precautionary savings to manage any residual volatility. To do this it combines three strands of literature for the first time: on continuous-time portfolio theory, oil extraction and precautionary savings. The third, “Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries”, addresses the anticipation effects around an oil discovery. It shows that the terms of trade will need to appreciate twice: once when oil is discovered and consumers anticipate future revenues; and again when the government begins spending the revenues. Oil wealth will give the monetary authority an incentive to appreciate the terms of trade, in addition to stabilising domestic inflation and the output gap. Optimal policy is well-approximated by a standard monetary rule that also responds to expected changes in the natural level of output.

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26

Nkabinde, S'phephelo. "The Effect of Foreign Exchange Accumulation on Macroeconomic Stability in Post-Liberalized South Africa." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/33917.

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This study examines the impact of foreign exchange reserve accumulation on macroeconomic stability in South Africa over the period 1995-2016 using a vector error correction model. The results show that foreign exchange reserve accumulation has a positive impact on macroeconomic stability.

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27

Xu, Jian. "Four essays on international economics and macroeconomics /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/7381.

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28

Cimoli, Mario. "Technology, international trade and development : a North-South perspective." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.332842.

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29

Krrikyan, Vahe [Verfasser], and Klaus [Akademischer Betreuer] Adam. "Essays in development macroeconomics / Vahe Krrikyan ; Betreuer: Klaus Adam." Mannheim : Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1189067277/34.

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30

Tandon, Ajay Jr. "Essays on Development Economics: Issues in Macroeconomics and Population." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/40513.

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This dissertation consists of three chapters on development economics. The first two chapters are in the area of international macroeconomics. The third chapter is in an area that is the intersection of macroeconomics and population economics. The first chapter studies currency substitution in an environment where agents' inflation tax evasive demand for foreign money is balanced by the concern for the possibility that the government may impose economy-wide capital controls under which foreign currency transactions are costly. We contrast implications of constant beliefs regarding capital controls with those obtained under endogenous beliefs. With endogenous beliefs, agents expect a greater likelihood of capital controls as economy-wide currency substitution rises. Our results show a persistent demand for foreign money under endogenous beliefs despite efforts by the government to reduce inflation. The second chapter is a theoretical study of currency substitution in an overlapping-generations economy. We focus on the role of beliefs in determining the relative demands for domestic and foreign money. Domestic money suffers from a lack of confidence leading agents to demand foreign money as an alternate store-of-value. We study equilibria in which the level of confidence in domestic money evolves as a function of expected future aggregate domestic money demand: agents increase their demand for domestic money only if aggregate economy-wide real domestic money demand is expected to rise. The third chapter is a study of intertemporal substitution and fertility dynamics. The demographic experience of Iran after the revolution poses an interesting puzzle. A brief increase in period fertility after the 1979 revolution interrupted a trend of decline that had started in the 1950s. The rise in fertility, however, appears to have lasted only a few years: in the late 1980s fertility decline resumed its course at an even faster pace. We present evidence that suggests that the changes in Iranian fertility since the revolution were in part a birth timing phenomenon. The revolution may well have been a transient economic shock which temporarily depressed the relative "price" of children and caused adjustment in fertility patterns which, at least in an ex post sense, is suggestive of intertemporal substitution.
Ph. D.

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31

Fernandes, Fernanda Corrêa. "Essays on macroeconomics and banking." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18416.

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This thesis is composed by two chapters. In the first one, I develop a framework to quantify the role of sectoral heterogeneity, with regard to credit access, in explaining the effects of financial integration. Financial frictions generate a misallocation of resources, implying a low total factor productivity and output per worker in emerging economies. Given the existence of sectoral heterogeneity in credit access, these frictions also have disproportionate effects on sectoral variables, as well as on exchange rate. These elements are able to explain some development regularities, as the higher relative price of tradable goods and the relative unproductive tradable goods sector in poor countries. Moreover, I show that domestic and external financial integration have different impacts on the economy. While the former is vital to reduce the misallocation of resources, the last is crucial to reduce the domestic interest rate and stimulate a deeper engagement of entrepreneurs in real activity. I quantify these results and show that financial integration has nontrivial effects on aggregate/sector-level productivity, capital accumulation and output per worker. In the second chapter, in turn, I analyse the propagation of shocks throughout a financial network, identifying the relation between heterogeneity of institutions and the resilience of the system. I distinguish banks according to their size and degree of centrality in order to form a core-periphery network, similar to those empirically observed. Regarding the effects of unexpected shocks, I argue that connections work as a way of propagation of losses and prove the possibility of contagion in equilibrium. Unlike the intuitive perception, I point out that a gap between the size of central and peripheral agents is required for the former to achieve the expected systemic relevance. When it occurs, the presence of core banks is crucial for easing the propagation of direct losses, as well as for protecting the system against peripheral shocks. The policy implications are clear in such cases. Monetary authorities do not need to rescue peripheral banks in order to avoid contagion. I conclude by analysing the relative resilience of some networks. I show that the core-periphery network is more resilient than the circular one. Since the last is mostly used, the contagion risk might be overestimated in literature.
Essa tese é composta por dois capítulos. No primeiro, desenvolvo um modelo para quantificar o papel da heterogeneidade setorial, em relação ao acesso a crédito, na determinação dos efeitos da integração financeira. Fricções financeiras geram má-alocação de recursos, resultando em baixa produtividade e produto por trabalhador em economias emergentes. Dada a existência de heterogeneidade setorial no acesso a crédito, essas fricções apresentam efeitos desproporcionais em variáveis setoriais, assim como na taxa de câmbio. Esses elementos são capazes de explicar regularidades do desenvolvimento, como o elevado preço relativo dos bens comercializáveis e a baixa produtividade relativa desse setor nos países em desenvolvimento. Adicionalmente, mostro que a integração doméstica e externa apresentam diferentes impactos na economia. Enquanto a primeira é vital para reduzir a má-alocação de recursos, a segunda é crucial para reduzir a taxa de juros doméstica e estimular um maior engajamento dos agentes na economia real. Quantifico esses resultados e mostro que a integração financeira apresenta efeitos não triviais na produtividade agregada/setorial, na acumulação de capital e no produto por trabalhador dos países. No segundo capítulo, por sua vez, analiso a propagação de choques por uma rede financeira, identificando a relação entre a heterogeneidade das instituições financeiras e a resiliência do sistema. Os bancos são diferenciados de acordo com seu tamanho e grau de centralidade na rede, de modo a formar uma rede núcleo-periferia similar às empiricamente observadas. Em relação aos efeitos de choques inesperados, mostro que as conexões funcionam como meio de propagação de perdas e provo a possibilidade de contágio em equilíbrio. Em contraste com a visão intuitiva, mostro que é necessária uma lacuna entre o tamanho do banco núcleo e periférico para que o primeiro alcance a relevância sistêmica esperada. Nesse caso, a presença de bancos núcleo é crucial para a propagação de choques que os atinjam diretamente, assim como para a proteção do sistema contra choques periféricos. As implicações de política são claras nesse caso. A autoridade monetária não precisa resgatar bancos periféricos para evitar o contágio. Por fim, analiso a resiliência relativa de algumas redes financeiras. Mostro que a rede núcleo-periferia é mais resiliente do que a rede circular. Como a última é utilizada recorrentemente, o risco de contágio pode estar superestimado na literatura.

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32

Petkov, Boris T. "Macroeconomics of economic transition-determinants of the pattern of development." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2015. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/6180/.

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Our objective is to try to understand the rationale for and the effectiveness of different economic policies in a transition. We provide consistent, comprehensive analysis covering the interlinked questions of: i) how to achieve sustained, balanced/diversified economic growth; the main constraints are: government failure, human capital limitation, and corruption; ii) "what break-ups do to countries"; breakup countries experience deeper and shorter economic crisis, growing afterwards faster; iii) is there a prospect for economic convergence in the "club" of the 28 former centrally planned economies; we explore for a first time the issue-they are expected to reach half the distance to their non-growth steady state in around 50 years; iv) what is the quality of governance relationship with the resource "curse" or "blessing"; negative effect would obtain only in countries with poor institutional structures; v) what insights to the Dutch disease transmission mechanism can be provided by the Salter-Swan model; vi) is the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis valid; we confirm its validity; and, vii) what are the most important sovereign yield spreads determinants, and propose the impact from financial market volatility; and, our empirical approach takes account of recent advances in econometric analysis of time series-fractional cointegration.

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33

Brandt, Lily. "The macroeconomic impact of asset restrictions on pension funds." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/21381.

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
Asset restrictions are prudential regulations applied by regulators around the globe. In essence, they prescribe asset restrictions as a risk-control measure to establish appropriate capital requirements for regulated institutions. The aim of prudential regulations and standards is to protect consumers who acquire the products and services offered by these institutions. Pension funds in Namibia must comply with Regulation 28 of the Pension Funds Act, 1956. Regulation 28 is the prudential regulation that governs investment limits for pension funds. The regulation prescribes maximum investment limits for all asset classes. In 2009, the government made a policy decision to amend Regulation 28 to prescribe a minimum investment in unlisted shares (private equity) that would be applicable to pension funds, long-term insurance companies and unit trusts. The objective of government is to use Regulation 28 as a macroeconomic tool to control capital flows and channel capital to domestic companies. The regulation will stimulate economic activities, local ownership, create employment and reduce poverty, which will eventually facilitate economic development. In addition, this objective has the potential to assist the development of the private equity sector in Namibia. The implication of this development is that retirement savings will be utilised to achieve macroeconomic objectives and develop an industry sector. Private equity has shown tremendous growth in developed economies and is beginning to grow in Africa as well. Private equity is a sector that has the potential to realise excellent returns for pension funds, provided the risks are adequately controlled and managed. The study proposes a regulatory framework for unlisted investments (private equity) by pension funds. The framework considers risks and proposes how to best manage and control them. The conclusion is to abolish a prescribed minimum and to increase the domestic asset requirement. Ultimately, regulators exist to protect consumers while the development of markets is a secondary priority.

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34

Berkshire, Richard. "Sustainable Development Economy: Macroeconomic Policy and Microeconomic Impact of Public Private Partnerships." ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7216.

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The impact of public private partnership (PPP) on Dallas, Texas economic development activities is debated through many forms of academic studies. The purpose of this study was to bridge the research gap in PPP impact on sustainable economic development from the perspectives of PPP practitioners. The central research question focused on the PPP executives' perspective on the evaluation of PPP programs within a 5-year period (2005 - 2010) in Dallas, Texas. The theoretical framework of this study was based on the policy feedback theory. A qualitative case study design was the case study approach and purposeful sampling interviews were the data collection tool; 7 participants agreed to participate in the study and provided data and information through participating in the interview. The participants were representative of the total population with 2 participants from the public sector, 2 participants from the for-profit private sector, 2 participants from nonprofit community development organizations, and 1 member from city council. A comparison to secondary data was performed to ensure reliability and protect against bias. Research findings provided indicators to PPP's successful design, lessons learned, and PPP executives' and policy makers' evaluation standards as well as suggestions for improvement. The social impact of this study on governance and a clearer understanding of PPP provides insights on the best use of public resources attempting to increase government performance efficiency.

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35

Alassaf, Ghazi Ibrahim. "Workers' remittances in Jordan : their macroeconomic determinants and impact on financial development." Thesis, Swansea University, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.678512.

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36

Rohozynsky, Oleksandr. "Developing a safety net for Ukraine." Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2007. http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD221/.

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37

Kennedy, N. O. "The development of consistent stock-flow modelling in macroeconomics and macroeconometrics." Thesis, University of Reading, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.235296.

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38

Sabbadini, Ricardo. "Dois ensaios empíricos em macroeconomia e desigualdade de renda." Universidade de São Paulo, 2010. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-16042010-124317/.

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Essa dissertação é composta por dois ensaios empíricos que relacionam variáveis macroeconômicas e desigualdade de renda. No primeiro ensaio, o objetivo é avaliar o impacto de uma mudança da taxa inflação na distribuição de renda, medida pelo índice de Gini. Para isso, usa-se um painel com aproximadamente 80 países e dados anuais entre 1987 e 2006. Então, estimam-se modelos estáticos e dinâmicos em que a desigualdade de renda é explicada pela inflação, sempre controlando a existência de efeitos fixos para países e anos. Quando modelos não-lineares são usados, para diminuir a influência dos outliers, encontra-se uma robusta relação positiva entre as variáveis, indicando que inflação tem um impacto positivo no índice de Gini. A magnitude do efeito estimado, porém, é inferior ao obtido por estudos anteriores. Os resultados apontam que um aumento no IPC de zero para 10 pontos percentuais ao ano aumentaria o índice de Gini, que está numa escala de zero a 100, em, no máximo, 0,05 pontos percentuais. Essa discrepância em relação à literatura parece decorrer do uso de estimadores de efeitos fixos, pois os trabalhos anteriores baseavam-se em dados em cross section. No segundo ensaio, sugere-se que o impacto de uma democratização sobre o crescimento econômico depende negativamente da desigualdade de renda do país em questão. Isto significa que uma democratização pode estimular o crescimento em países mais equânimes, mas este efeito é menor em sociedades mais desiguais. A fim de avaliar este argumento empiricamente, usa-se um painel de 76 países com dados qüinqüenais entre 1977 e 2006. Com estes dados, também se estimam modelos estáticos e dinâmicos que sempre controlam a existência de efeitos fixos para países e tempo. Nesses modelos o crescimento do PIB per capita é explicado por uma variável que mede a qualidade das instituições democráticas do país e por sua interação com o índice de Gini, de modo que o efeito marginal da democracia dependa do Gini. Em todos os modelos estimados os coeficientes sempre apresentaram os sinais esperados. O resultado mais robusto é que para países com elevada desigualdade de renda (do quartil superior da nossa amostra, com índide de Gini acima de 45 pontos) a democratização tem um impacto negativo sobre o crescimento econômico.
This dissertation consists of two empirical essays relating macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The aim of the first essay is to evaluate how a change in the inflation rate affects the income distribution. In order to do this, a panel of yearly data for about 80 countries between 1987 and 2006 is used. Then static and dynamic models in which income inequality is explained by inflation are estimated, always controlling for country and year fixed effects. A robust positive relation between the variables is found when non linear models are used to reduce the influence of outliers. This is evidence that inflation has a positive effect in the Gini index. The size of the estimated effect, however, is inferior to those obtained by previous studies. Results point that a an increase in the CPI from zero to 10 yearly percentage points would increase the Gini index in at most 0,05 percentage points, on a scale that lies in between zero and 100. Such a difference seems to derive from the use of fixed effects estimators, while previous work was based in cross section data. The second essay suggests that the impact of democratization in economic growth depends negatively on the countrys income inequality. This means that democratization might encourage growth in more equal countries, but this effect diminishes in more unequal societies. In order to empirically assess this argument, I use a panel with 76 countries and five-year averages between 1977 and 2006 and estimate static and dynamic models that also control for country and time fixed effects. In these models, per capita GDP is explained by a variable that measures quality of democratic institutions and its interaction with the Gini index, so that democracys marginal effect depends on the latter. Coefficients have the expected signs in all estimated models. The most robust result is that for highly unequal countries (those that belong to the highest quartile in the sample, with Gini index above 45 percentage points) democratization has a negative impact on economic growth.

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39

Johnson, Katherine. "The Role of Islamic Banking in Economic Growth." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2013. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/642.

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Islamic banking is currently one of the fastest growing segments of the financial market industry, operating in over 75 countries through 300 institutions. While past literature has established the development of financial institutions as a determinant of economic growth, research on the correlation of the diffusion of Islamic banking with economic growth is limited. This study seeks to add to the literature by empirically analyzing the economic growth determinative power of Islamic banks. Confirming past research, Muslim prevalence in a population is found to be the most significant determinant of the diffusion of Islamic banks. Using this exogenous instrument in 2SLS regressions, results show that Islamic banks are not significantly correlated with economic growth. Most notably, including the Islamic banking instrument affects the strength of beta-convergence. Basic Solovian specifications show that convergence occurs; countries with higher initial GDP per capita grow more slowly. After accounting for the intensity of Islamic banking, this effect becomes much less statistically significant, suggesting that some of the effect of convergence may operate through the propensity to adopt Islamic banking. Empirical analysis disaffirms the hypothesis that Islamic banks minimize the explanatory power of legal origin on economic growth due to their independent implementation of Shariah law; the results show that accounting for Islamic banks has no effect on the determinative power of legal origin. Finally, the correlation of Islamic banking and financial deepening is largely dependent on legal origin, resulting in negative effects for countries with British legal origin and positive for those with French legal origin.

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40

Wolf, Martin [Verfasser]. "Three essays in International Macroeconomics : Developments in the euro area crisis / Martin Wolf." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1139048635/34.

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41

Song, Yiliu. "The Convergence Pattern in the Latter Economic Development: Evidence from 1959-2016 U.S. Counties." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1781.

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In the early literature, the empirical evidence showed that the rate of economic convergence is close to 2%. This paper reexamined the convergence pattern of U.S. counties from 1959-2015 and explored the potential impact of the net migration rate and population density on the rate of convergence. By investigating both the ordinary least square and quantile regression estimates, this paper found out the convergence pattern for the latter economic development period differed from that in the early period. This change is mainly featured by a close to zero convergence rate after 1979. Furthermore, for counties starting off at a relatively low GDP per capita level, no significant economic convergence was observed during the period 1979-2005. Net migration rate didn’t show to have a significant impact on the rate of convergence. Population density has a double effect on the economic growth and can partly account for the change in the rate of convergence in the latter economic development period.

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42

Jauch, Sebastian [Verfasser], and Gerhard [Akademischer Betreuer] Illing. "The macroeconomics of saving, debt and financial development / Sebastian Jauch. Betreuer: Gerhard Illing." München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1038151899/34.

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43

Woolley, Nicholas. "Big effects of a little sector : the structural effects of venture capital on the macroeconomy." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:0c547643-d373-4c5e-9595-ac4e9bbde0d3.

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We explore certain structural elements of venture capital investment, focusing on the role of venture capital as an asset class dedicated to technology investment. The structural role of technology as contributing to the total factor productivity is captured through the use of endogenous growth mechanisms as found in Romer (1990) and Rivera-Batiz and Romer (1991). In the first chapter, we explain certain elements of the two recessions in the first decade of the 21st century by combining these endogenous growth mechanisms with a financial accelerator in the market for production capital to capture the financial elements associated with decreased leverage after a financial crisis. In the second chapter, we assess the impact of policies in the late 1970s which largely created venture capital by encouraging technology investment to occur through debt contracts rather than equity contracts. We explain a set of stylized facts by contrasting a debt mechanism and an equity mechanism for an asset that derives its value from returns to technology goods in a stochastic endogenous growth model. Our final chapter deals with the disposition of venture capitalists towards Knightian uncertainty. We show that an uncertainty-loving behavior of venture capitalists leads to a Pareto improvement in the economy. However, the magnitude of the effect of changes in disposition towards uncertainty is small, implying that bubbles in the venture capital market caused by this type of uncertainty-loving behavior should not be a great concern for investors and policy makers.

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Nach, Marida Nephertiti. "Determinants of economic growth in South Africa: an economic analysis of the Keynesian macroeconomic model." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/12459.

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A country’s performance is commonly measured by its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Gross Domestic Product in Developing Countries (DCs) can be seen confusing and unbalanced, with regular and unconditional falls and booms. This study aims at examining the factors that affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Developing Countries (DCs) whereby South Africa is being selected as a representative. An econometric analysis of the Keynesian model is adopted to test the South African Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over a decade (10 years). The methodology conducted uses quarterly time series data from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) where the South African Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is modelled as a function of consumption expenditure, domestic investment, government spending and export/import of the country. This is in order to determine which of these factors best explain South African economic growth dynamics. The variables in the model are tested for stationary and the result shows that the variables become stationary at 1st difference, except for consumption which become stationary at 2nd difference. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) results confirm that consumption, investment, government spending and net export all have a positive impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings suggest that the South African Gross Domestic Product is mainly influenced by consumption, followed by investment. In the recommendation context, the study recommends that South Africa should continue to maintain price stability while at the same time endeavour to attract more investment to the country. Moreover, Developing Countries need to maintain a fiscal discipline without necessarily losing sight of the international dynamics. For further areas of studies, the study recommends more analysis on macroeconomic policies that are comprehensive and can cover all aspects related to the Keynesian model of economic growth. Finally, it is necessary to remind that the findings and recommendations drawn from the study are limited to the concept of South Africa and are based only on the results from the empirical analysis conducted.

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Matshego, Isaac. "Determinants of the development of a local currency bond market: the significance of macroeconomic stability." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30392.

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Bond market capitalisation in Sub-Saharan Africa is low even compared with the other developing economies. This dissertation thus examines the drivers of the development of local currency bond markets in 15 Sub-Saharan African economies over the period from 2003 to 2013, with a focus on the significance of macroeconomic stability proxied by exchange rate volatility. The empirical analysis focuses on government bond capitalisation, while the corporate bond market analysis focuses on seven of these economies for the period of 2004 to 2015. Possible explanatory factors are identified from the literature which attributes the development of local currency bond markets in developing economies to macroeconomic and institutional factors. The results of a dynamic panel data model show that macroeconomic instability is significant and negatively associated with local currency bond market capitalisation. In contrast, capital account openness is found to expand the investor base, for the low to lower-middle income economies in particular, while monetary credibility is positive and significant for bond market development irrespective of the monetary policy framework. Thus, this research suggests that the optimal set of policy options for local currency bond market development should encompass exchange rate stabilisation, capital account liberalisation, and monetary credibility.

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Ebeke, Christian Hubert Xavier Camille. "Essays on the macroeconomic consequences of remittances in developing countries." Phd thesis, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01066213.

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This thesis focused on the consequences of remittance inflows in developing countries. The first partexplored the causal impacts of remittances on some indicators of aggregate welfare while the secondpart examined the effects of remittances on public policy. Several results emerged. First, remittanceinflows help reduce the proportion of individuals selling low wages and this effect is stronger in acontext of low level of financial development, high macroeconomic instability and less unpredictableremittances (Chapter 1). Second, remittances have a robust stabilizing impact on the privateconsumption. However, this effect tends to decrease with the levels of remittance inflows and financialdevelopment. Moreover, remittance-dependent economies seem to be strongly sheltered against thedamaging effects of various types of shocks affecting consumption (Chapter 2). In Chapter 3, theresults highlighted that remittance inflows dampen the positive effect of natural disasters on the outputgrowth volatility. However, this impact was strongly reduced as the level of remittances increased.The second part of the thesis revealed interesting results regarding the effects of remittance inflows onpublic policy. First, remittance inflows reduce the insurance role played by the governmentconsumption in more open economies and this effect is more likely to hold when remittances exhibit acountercyclical behavior (Chapter 4). In Chapter 5, the results showed that the fiscal retrenchmentinduced by remittance inflows, is particularly marked for the public education and health spending incountries characterized by various types of governance problems. Finally, the thesis showed that theeffects of remittances do not only concern the expenditure side but also the revenue side. Remittancesare more likely to increase the fiscal space in receiving economies that rely on the value added taxsystem. In these countries, remittance inflows help increase both the level and the stability of thegovernment tax revenue ratio (Chapter 6).

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Rousseau, Serge. "Perspectives macroéconomiques et développement régional : effets de l'adoption du paradigme libéral /." Thèse, Chicoutimi : Université du Québec à Chicoutimi, 1991. http://theses.uqac.ca.

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48

Oladeji, Jonathan Damilola. "Towards the development of a predictive rent model in Nigeria and South Africa." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/73164.

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This research aimed to identify reliable economic data for predictive rent modelling in South Africa and Nigeria, as a contribution towards the growing debate on real estate rental forecasting from the African perspective. The data were obtained from the Iress Expert Database, Stat SA, the Central Bank of Nigeria database (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics and World Bank. The South African economic data comprised time series for a fifteen-year period between Quarter 1 (Q1), 2003 and Quarter 4 (Q4), 2018. The Nigerian data comprised time series for a ten-year period between Quarter 1 (Q1), 2008 and Quarter 4 (Q4), 2018. The logit model was proposed among others as a macroeconomic modelling approach that captures the future rental directions based on the general economic movements and likely turning points. The model is particularly useful due to its reliance on macroeconomic and indirect/listed real estate data which are more readily available to real estate investment decision-makers. This study identified that coincident indicators and the exchange rate both have positive significant relationships with Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed real estate as compelling indicators for the South African market. For the Nigerian listed real estate market indicator, the model also responded to interest rate, the consumer price index and the Treasury Bill Rate (TBR) as reliable indicators. In addition to this, analysis revealed the logit regression framework as an improvement to naïve or ordinary linear rent models in these emerging African real estate markets. The use of macroeconomic modelling proved to be a viable alternative to scarce comparable transaction data which serve as the bedrock of traditional real estate investment appraisal. Thus, a forecasting model for early detection of turning points in commercial real estate rental values in South Africa and Nigeria was developed for use in real estate investment decisions. The study concluded that not all economic indicators lead the listed real estate market. The relationship between the macroeconomy and listed real estate is largely significant, but this could be a positive or negative relationship.
Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2019.
African Real Estate Research (AFRER) for IREBS Foundation.
Construction Economics
MSc
Unrestricted

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Johns, Michael Ryan. "Macroeconomic convergence within SADC : implications for the formation of a regional monetary union." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002758.

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Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.

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Richert, Katharina [Verfasser], and Axel [Akademischer Betreuer] Dreher. "Empirical Evidence on Development Effectiveness: From Macroeconomic Structures to Micro-Level Implementation / Katharina Richert ; Betreuer: Axel Dreher." Heidelberg : Universitätsbibliothek Heidelberg, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1180394429/34.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Macroeconomic developments'

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