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Journal articles on the topic 'Macroeconomic developments'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 6 February 2022

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1

Arestis, Philip. "Fiscal policy is still an effective instrument of macroeconomic policy." Panoeconomicus 58, no. 2 (2011): 143–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan1102143a.

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Recent developments in macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy, what has come to be known as ?New Consensus in Macroeconomics?, downgrades the role of fiscal policy and upgrades that of monetary policy. This contribution aims to consider this particular contention by focusing on fiscal policy. We consider fiscal policy within the current ?new consensus? theoretical framework, which views fiscal policy as ineffective, and argue that it deserves a great deal more attention paid to it than it has been recently. We review and appraise recent and not so recent theoretical and empirical developments on the fiscal policy front. The possibility of fiscal and monetary policy coordination is proposed and discussed to conclude that it deserves a great deal more attention and careful consideration than it has been given to in the past. Our overall conclusion is that discretionary application of fiscal and monetary policy in a coordinated and focused manner as a tool of macroeconomic policy deserves serious attention paid to it than hitherto.

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HARVIE, CHARLES. "CHINA'S RECENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICY." Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy 19, no. 2 (June 2000): 44–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-3441.2000.tb00959.x.

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3

Hardt, Lukas, and Daniel W. O'Neill. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments." Ecological Economics 134 (April 2017): 198–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.12.027.

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4

Serletis, Apostolos. "INTRODUCTION TO MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS SPECIAL ISSUE ON COMPLEXITY IN ECONOMIC SYSTEMS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 20, no. 2 (June 17, 2014): 461–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000261.

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In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, questions have been raised regarding the value and applicability of modern macroeconomics. Motivated by these developments and recent advances in dynamical systems theory, the papers in this special issue of Macroeconomic Dynamics deal with specific aspects of the economy as a complex evolving dynamic system.

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5

Woodford, M. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 10 (October 20, 2010): 17–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2010-10-17-30.

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While macroeconomics is often thought of as a deeply divided field, with less of a shared core and correspondingly less cumulative progress than in other areas of economics, in fact, there are fewer fundamental disagreements among macroeconomists now than in past decades. This is due to important progress in resolving seemingly intractable debates. In this paper, the author reviews some of those debates and outlines important elements of the new synthesis in macroeconomic theory. The author discusses the extent to which new developments in theory and research methods are already affecting macroeconomic analysis in policy institutions.

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Woodford, Michael. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: Elements of the New Synthesis." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 1 (January 1, 2009): 267–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.1.1.267.

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While macroeconomics is often thought of as a deeply divided field, with less of a shared core and correspondingly less cumulative progress than other areas of economics, in fact, there are fewer fundamental disagreements among macroeconomists now than in past decades. This is due to important progress in resolving seemingly intractable debates. In this paper, I review some of those debates and outline important elements of the new synthesis in macroeconomic theory. I discusses the extent to which the new developments in theory and research methods are already affecting macroeconomic analysis in policy institutions. (JEL A11, E00)

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7

Silvestre. "Market Power in Macroeconomic Models: New Developments." Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, no. 37/38 (1995): 319. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20075991.

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8

Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, and Marcelo Sánchez. "Oil price shocks and Japanese macroeconomic developments." Asian-Pacific Economic Literature 26, no. 1 (May 2012): 69–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01336.x.

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9

Moiseev, S. "Macroanalysis of Exchange Rate: From Cassel to Obstfield and Rogoff." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 20, 2004): 49–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2004-1-49-65.

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In the last few decades exchange rate economics has seen a number of important developments, with substantial contributions to both the theory and the empirics of exchange rate determination. This article presents a survey of exchange rate models from classical purchasing power parity to new open economy macroeconomics. Significant attention is given to five directions of analysis: goods market approach, optimum currency area theory, monetarist's approach, new developments into the open economy macroeconomic theory, and several empiric models of exchange rate.

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10

Monaco, Ralph M. "Recent Macroeconomic Developments and Their Impact on Agriculture." Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 20, no. 2 (October 1991): 164–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0899367x00002981.

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The U.S. is nearing the end of its ninth recession since the Second World War. This recession was caused by events outside of the agricultural sector, and the recovery will be due to factors outside the sector. Yet agricultural production, costs, and income will be affected by general economic conditions. This paper reviews current general economic conditions and examines their implications for the agricultural sector.

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11

Baragar, Fletcher, and Mario Seccareccia. "Financial Restructuring: Implications of Recent Canadian Macroeconomic Developments." Studies in Political Economy 82, no. 1 (September 2008): 61–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19187033.2008.11675064.

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12

McDonal, Daina, and Peter B. Dixon. "Macroeconomic Developments in 1986–87 and 1987–88." Australian Economic Review 19, no. 4 (June 1986): 3–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1986.tb00642.x.

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13

Owiredu, Alexander, Moses Oppong, and Sandra A. Asomaning. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development in Ghana." International Finance and Banking 3, no. 2 (August 1, 2016): 33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ifb.v3i2.9555.

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Financial systems have been found to have a positive influence on the economic development of most countries. The stock market, which is also a component of the financial system is said to play an integral role in economic growth. This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in Ghana for the period 1992 to 2012 using annual secondary data from Bank of Ghana Quarterly Economic Bulletins, Ghana Statistical Service, Ghana Stock Exchange Market Statistics, the World Bank and IMF’s International Financial Statistics. The macroeconomic indicators such as the real income (GDP per capita income), domestic saving, stock market liquidity, financial intermediary growth, macroeconomic stability (inflation) and private capital flows with stock market capitalization used as a proxy for the study were collected and used for the analysis. These variables were examined to establish a relationship with stock market developments based on a linear regression model.The regression analysis found stock market liquidity to be statistically significant to stock market developments as opposed to the other determinants (such as macroeconomic stability (inflation) real income and domestic savings and private capital flows) which were found to be non-significant. This result suggests that macroeconomic stability (inflation), real income, domestic savings and private capital flows proved not to have any significant impact on stock market development, since their regression coefficients were not statically significant at the 5% level of significance.

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14

Barrell, Ray, Andy Blake, and Garry Young. "Macroeconomic Modelling at the Institute: Hopes, Challenges and a Lasting Contribution." National Institute Economic Review 246 (November 2018): R3—R14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011824600109.

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The Institute is a world leader in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. It has produced quarterly economic forecasts for around sixty years, supported by macroeconomic models. The aim of the original builders of macroeconomic models was to transform understanding of how economies worked and use that knowledge to improve economic policy. In the early years, when computers were rare, macroeconomic modelling was a new frontier and Institute economists were among the first to produce a working model of the UK economy. It is remarkable how quickly models were being used to produce forecasts, assess policy and influence the international macroeconomic research agenda. The models built at the Institute were mainstream in the sense that they followed the contents of standard macroeconomic textbooks, developed with the subject, and fitted the facts as they were known at the time. There were continual improvements in understanding as the subject developed in response to new ideas and developments in the global economy. This article celebrates the development of macroeconomic modelling at the Institute and the contribution it has made to public life.

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15

Fendel, Ralf, and Michael Frenkel. "Putting European Monetary Integration into a Historical Perspective: Two Decades of the European Monetary System versus Two Decades of the European Monetary Union." Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239, no. 5-6 (September 25, 2019): 769–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2018-0097.

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AbstractThis comparative study looks at broad economic developments during the 20 years of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and 20 years of the European Monetary System (EMS). We analyze the economic performance by looking at a set of macroeconomic variables. The analysis of macroeconomic performance includes two perspectives: one is internal, i. e. how did the countries perform relative to each other; the other is external, i. e. how did the group of member countries perform vis-à-vis other countries. Overall, the analysis of the two periods suggest that the EMU does not display a macroeconomic development inferior to the EMS period. On the contrary, some crucial macroeconomic indicators point to a greater stability during the EMU period compared to the EMS period.

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16

Radocea, Alexandru, Ilie Dumitrescu, and Daniela Stefanescu. "Recent developments of statistical approach reflecting the macroeconomic equilibrium." Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 13, no. 1 (March 1, 1996): 65–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/sju-1996-13107.

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17

Kochhar, Kalpana, Prakash Loungani, and Mark R. Stone. "The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons." IMF Working Papers 98, no. 128 (1998): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451935547.001.

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18

Škreb, Marko. "Recent macroeconomic developments and financial sector changes in Croatia." MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies 5, no. 3 (September 1995): 53–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00996709.

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19

Koh, Wee Chian, and Shu Yu. "A Decade After the 2009 Global Recession: Macroeconomic Developments." Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 12, no. 02 (April 23, 2021): 2150011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993321500113.

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Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well. However, the impact of the global recession varied across economies. EMDEs with stronger pre-crisis fundamentals — such as large foreign exchange reserves, sound fiscal positions, and low inflation — suffered milder growth slowdowns, in part due to their greater capacity to engage in monetary and fiscal stimulus. Low-income countries were also resilient, as foreign aid and inflows of remittances remained relatively stable. In contrast, EMDEs that were heavily dependent on short-term capital flows — such as portfolio investment and cross-border bank lending — fared less well, especially those in Europe and Central Asia. A key lesson for EMDEs is the need to strengthen macroeconomic frameworks and create policy space to prepare for future global downturns.

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20

Coeurdacier, Nicolas, and Hélène Rey. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics." Journal of Economic Literature 51, no. 1 (March 1, 2013): 63–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.51.1.63.

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Home bias is a perennial feature of international capital markets. We review various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon highlighting recent developments in macroeconomic modeling that incorporate international portfolio choices in standard two-country general equilibrium models. We refer to this new literature as Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics. We focus on three broad classes of explanations: (i) hedging motives in frictionless financial markets (real exchange rate and nontradable income risk), (ii) asset trade costs in international financial markets (such as transaction costs or differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets), and (iii) informational frictions and behavioral biases. Recent theories call for new portfolio facts beyond equity home bias. We present new evidence on cross-border asset holdings across different types of assets: equities, bonds and bank lending and new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level. These data should inform macroeconomic modeling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment. (JEL E13, F41, G11, G12, G15)

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21

Franses, Philip Hans, Michael McAleer, and Rianne Legerstee. "EVALUATING MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS: A CONCISE REVIEW OF SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS." Journal of Economic Surveys 28, no. 2 (September 16, 2012): 195–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joes.12000.

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22

Honkapohja, Seppo. "Expectations and the theory of macroeconomic policy: Some recent developments." European Journal of Political Economy 1, no. 4 (January 1985): 467–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0176-2680(85)80001-x.

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23

Lumby, Anthony B. "Macroeconomic policies and the environment: recent developments in environmental accounting." Interdisciplinary Environmental Review 3, no. 1 (2001): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ier.2001.053867.

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24

Das, Sreyoshi, Camelia M. Kuhnen, and Stefan Nagel. "Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations." Review of Financial Studies 33, no. 1 (March 29, 2019): 395–432. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz041.

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Abstract We show that individuals’ macroeconomic expectations are influenced by their socioeconomic status (SES). People with higher income or higher education are more optimistic about future macroeconomic developments, including business conditions, the national unemployment rate, and stock market returns. The spread in beliefs between high- and low-SES individuals diminishes significantly during recessions. A comparison with professional forecasters and historical data reveals that the beliefs wedge reflects excessive pessimism on the part of low-SES individuals. SES-driven expectations help explain why higher-SES individuals are more inclined to invest in the stock market and more likely to consider purchasing homes, durable goods, or cars. Received November 13, 2017; editorial decision February 12, 2019 by Editor Wei Jiang. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

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25

Pražák, Tomáš, and Daniel Stavárek. "The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group." Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 20, no. 3 (September 30, 2017): 5–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/cer-2017-0017.

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This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005–2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative impact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.

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26

Ganev, Georgy. "Bulgaria’s Economy 1989–2019." Southeastern Europe 44, no. 2 (July 20, 2020): 260–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.30965/18763332-04402007.

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Based on an analytical narrative, and utilizing macroeconomic and new institutional economic theory, this exposition studies the Bulgarian economy during the decades after 1989. The three decades are placed in the context of the century-and-a-half-long Bulgarian development and convergence dynamic. They are then presented in terms of clearly defined sub-periods, and each sub-period is analyzed in detail. The analysis for each period focuses on three sets of issues: macroeconomic developments, microeconomic developments, and institutional changes. The exposition ends by applying the insights from the analysis to the question of whether the state of the economy in Bulgaria as of 2019 gives grounds for pessimism (Bulgaria will continue the cycles of unsuccessful convergence) or for optimism (Bulgaria will achieve an unprecedented degree of convergence in the coming decades). The answer is that at present both expectations can be supported by sets of serious arguments.

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27

Manning, Alan. "DEVELOPMENTS IN LABOUR MARKET THEORY and THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY." Scottish Journal of Political Economy 42, no. 3 (August 1995): 250–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.1995.tb01158.x.

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28

Matošec, Marina, and Zrinka Obuljen Zoricic. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia." Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems 17, no. 2 (2019): 345–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.7906/indecs.17.2.10.

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29

Bruno, Michael. "Theoretical Developments in the Light of Macroeconomic Policy and Empirical Research." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 91, no. 2 (June 1989): 307. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440113.

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30

Corden, W. Max. "THE RELEVANCE FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN MACROECONOMIC THEORY." World Bank Research Observer 2, no. 2 (1987): 171–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wbro/2.2.171.

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31

Cotis, Jean-Philippe. "Recent developments in macroeconomic analysis: Reviving the case for stabilisation policies." Économie internationale 100, no. 4 (December 1, 2004): 85–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/ecoi.100.0085.

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32

Todorov, Ivan Krumov. "Macroeconomic Trends in the New Member Countries of the European Union Before the Euro Area Debt Crisis." Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics 61, no. 2 (December 1, 2014): 197–217. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/aicue-2014-0014.

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Abstract The objective of this paper is to outline the main macroeconomic trends in the new member countries of the European Union before the Euro Area debt crisis. In order to achieve this objective, the developments in a wide range of macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, foreign trade, monetary policy, inflation, price levels, and fiscal balances, sovereign debt, GDP, labour productivity, composition of output and current account balances) have been analyzed. The analysis results in recommendations on the macroeconomic policies the new member countries should have implemented under global crisis condition in accordance with the peculiarities of their economies and their specific national priorities.

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33

Raneta, L., and A. Kozhabaeva. "Kazakhstan and Ukraine: Political Systems in Context of Macroeconomic Situation." World Economy and International Relations, no. 3 (2013): 97–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2013-3-97-103.

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The authors insist that a high concentration of political and administrative competencies proved to be more efficient model of state under the conditions of transitional economy when large-scale and unpopular transformations are on the agenda. In spite of “less democratic” administrative model Kazakhstan gained much more impressive economic outcome that formally more democratic Ukraine. Taking into account the most recent developments in both countries one can suppose that the described trends will remain in the future. Namely, the rupture between levels of economic development of Ukraine and Kazakhstan will further broaden.

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34

Topp, Niels-Henrik. "Kjeld Philip and His Views on Fiscal Policy." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 25, no. 3 (September 2003): 303–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1042771032000114746.

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The developments in macroeconomic theory in the 1930s had far-reaching theoretical implications for the attitude towards fiscal policy. In the following decades numerous articles and books analyzed the effects of fiscal policy on the economic activity. The analyses were often closely related to the Keynesian macroeconomic framework and the multiplier. The object of this paper is to draw attention to a book which analyzed fiscal policy from a different perspective.

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35

Kohsaka, Akira, and Masahiro Enya. "The Balance Sheet Effects and Macroeconomic Development in the Pacific Region." Asian Economic Papers 6, no. 1 (February 2007): 101–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/asep.2007.6.1.101.

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This paper focuses on balance sheet adjustments across the recent boom–bust cycles in the Pacific region along with structural changes in sectoral balance sheets and policy environments. Comparing empirical regularities across industrial as well as East Asian countries over the past decades, our analysis shows that asset price busts and concurrent macroeconomic developments in East Asia share some common patterns, identified using event analysis, with industrial economies. Regarding the macroeconomic impact of asset market price busts, we generally observed qualitatively similar features between industrial countries and East Asian emerging markets. Major differences between the two groups appear in the magnitude of swings and the speed of recoveries of the key macroeconomic variables. Negative impacts on investment were stronger in East Asia, but quicker recoveries were their features, whereas private consumption was commonly rather robust to asset market turmoil.

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36

Salihah Shaffie, Siti, Saiful Hafizah Jaaman, and Daud Mohamad. "Macroeconomic Risk Factor in Fuzzy Present Value of Highway Development." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.33 (December 9, 2018): 71. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.33.23487.

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Highway developments are the backbone for the society and economic growth. It is part of the capital investment in infrastructure developments that require high spending, long term commitment and prognosticated with numbers of risks. This is because the investment is associated with uncertainty and vagueness due to long term duration of construction and operation of the project. Hence, the valuation of the investment requires accommodated model to present more accurate estimation of the project. This study proposed to evaluate fuzzy present value of a highway project with anticipated risk assessment in its valuation using fuzzy present value. The risk assessment is part of the estimation of fuzzy cash flow to represent better present value of the project. The results show an estimated value comprise with risk assessment of macroeconomic factor to portray better estimation that can assist decision maker to make decision towards the project.

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37

Gürkaynak, Refet S., and Jonathan H. Wright. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure." Journal of Economic Literature 50, no. 2 (June 1, 2012): 331–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.50.2.331.

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This paper provides an overview of the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a special emphasis on recent developments at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. The topic is important to investors and also to policymakers, who wish to extract macroeconomic expectations from longer-term interest rates, and take actions to influence those rates. The simplest model of the term structure is the expectations hypothesis, which posits that long-term interest rates are expectations of future average short-term rates. In this paper, we show that many features of the configuration of interest rates are puzzling from the perspective of the expectations hypothesis. We review models that explain these anomalies using time-varying risk premia. Although the quest for the fundamental macroeconomic explanations of these risk premia is ongoing, inflation uncertainty seems to play a large role. Finally, while modern finance theory prices bonds and other assets in a single unified framework, we also consider an earlier approach based on segmented markets. Market segmentation seems important to understand the term structure of interest rates during the recent financial crisis. (JEL E31, E43, E52, E58)

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38

Kryeziu, Alush. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors In Economic Growth." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 12, no. 7 (March 30, 2016): 331. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2016.v12n7p331.

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In this paper will be discussed the main concepts and trends of the macro-fiscal indicators in economic growth, as well as their importance in the economic development of different countries, with special emphasis in Kosovo. One of the aims of this paper is to define and explain the connection between macroeconomic indicators with specific emphasis: the public debt, budget deficit and inflation on economic growth. In order to analyze this impact of variables in economic growth, the targeted time period of research is the period from 2004 to 2014. While the data taken regarding Kosovo were obtained from the year 2005, due to the fact that earlier the data have been limited because of the developments in which Kosovo went through. The model that best represents the link between macro-fiscal indicators on economic growth is the linear regression as an econometric model. We will have the opportunity to see and interpret these data. The overall results have emerged in accordance with theoretical discussions presented, but this relationship has not turned out to be very strong because the coefficients acquired did not have great explanatory skills for economic phenomena.

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39

Agrawal, Khushbu, and Yogesh Maheshwari. "Default risk modelling using macroeconomic variables." Journal of Indian Business Research 6, no. 4 (November 11, 2014): 270–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jibr-04-2014-0024.

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Purpose – This paper aims to find out significant macroeconomic variables, incorporated as sensitivity variables (macroeconomic sensitivities), affecting financial distress for a sample of listed Indian firms. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a matched pair sample of defaulting and non-defaulting listed Indian firms. It uses two alternative statistical techniques, viz., logistic regression and multiple discriminant analysis. The macroeconomic sensitivities are estimated by regressing the monthly stock return of the individual firm on the monthly changes in each macroeconomic variable. Findings – Sensitivity to changes in the stock market (stock market sensitivity) and sensitivity to changes in inflation [Consumer Price Index (CPI) sensitivity] have a significant impact on the default probability of a firm. Stock market sensitivity has a significant positive relationship with the probability of default, and CPI sensitivity has a significant negative relationship with the probability of default. Originality/value – The study links the developments in the external environment to the firm’s susceptibility to default. Furthermore, it highlights the significance of sensitivity of a firm to uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and its impact on default risk. This establishes the fact that each firm is uniquely affected by the changes in the overall macroeconomic environment. The findings could be valuable to lenders such as banks and financial institutions, investors and policymakers.

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40

Cimoli, Mario, Giovanni Dosi, and Joseph Stiglitz. "The Rationale for Industrial and Innovation Policy." Revista do Serviço Público 66 (November 18, 2015): 55–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.21874/rsp.v66i0.1277.

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The evolution of industries in the last two centuries in all countries has been closely supported by a wide range of public policies addressing the patterns of capital accumulation, trade rules, the organisation of markets, innovative efforts and the process of knowledge creation and diffusion. Specific institutions have been created supporting such developments and have played a key role in economic growth. The protection of infant industries, the definition of trade and intellectual property regimes, the distribution of rents and the coherence with macroeconomic policies are key elements of such policies. The current challenges of industrial and innovation policies are discusses in the light of recent experiences in emerging countries.Keywords: secondary sector, public policy, industrial policy, market/commercialpolicy, industrialization, international trade, intellectual property, macroeconomics

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41

Chernysheva, A. M. "The economic policy of smaller countries if viewed through the development of the Russian Federation." National Interests: Priorities and Security 16, no. 7 (July 16, 2020): 1366–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ni.16.7.1366.

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Subject. The article determines what smaller countries pursue in their economic policy as the uncertainty of the world economy increases. Objectives. I study the economic development of the Russian Federation from perspectives of smaller countries and the efficiency of the common and diverse economic policy of smaller countries, which are closely related with the Russian economy, such as Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine and Estonia. Methods. I evaluated how some macroeconomic indicators of countries under study changed over time. To verify the hypothesis, I analyzed documents in public domain, including statistical data on macroeconomic developments of countries, such as the Russian Federation, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine and Estonia. I also applied a systems approach, comparative and statistical methods of research on key macroeconomic indicators. Results. At the current phase of multipolarity and globalization, Russia’s economic development is proved to influence both smaller countries coming along with its development vector, and States that simply have common borders with Russia. Considering the single course of their development and their geopolitical position, smaller countries ensure their sustainable growth. Conclusions and Relevance. Those countries which have chosen the single course of the development and considered their geopolitical position have performed their economic policy in the most successful way.

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Omoju, Oluwasola E., Jinkai Li, Jin Zhang, Abdul Rauf, and Victor Edem Sosoo. "Implications of shocks in energy consumption for energy policy in sub-Saharan Africa." Energy & Environment 31, no. 6 (November 18, 2019): 1077–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0958305x19882401.

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Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest energy consumption per capita in the world, and this has undermined socioeconomic development in the region. The stationarity of energy consumption in the region has important implications for energy policy, forecasting and macroeconomic developments. This paper investigates the stationarity properties of energy consumption in 48 sub-Saharan Africa countries using the Augment Dickey–Fuller, Zivot–Andrews, Clemente–Montanes–Reyes and Lee–Strazicich LM tests. Using the Lee-Strazicich LM test as a benchmark, the study shows that energy consumption is stationary in 41 countries. This implies that energy policy makers should not be concerned about shocks in energy consumption in these countries because the shocks will be temporary and not transmitted to the macroeconomy. Also, energy policies will not have long-term effects. Policies that exert one-time temporary shocks on energy consumption would be more effective in these countries.

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Adewale, Aregbeshola R. "Does Import Substitution Industrialisation Strategy Hurt Growth?: New Evidence from Brazil and South Africa." African and Asian Studies 11, no. 3 (2012): 288–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15692108-12341235.

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Abstract More economies have sprung up through home-grown import substitution industrialisation (ISI) strategy in the developing world as compared to those that have plummeted by adopting the prescripts of the Washington Consensus. The recurring economic and financial crises, essentially the 2008/2009 experiences, present another perspective for macroeconomic policy embracement. For instance, major economies, especially those of the United States and the countries in the European Union, jettisoned their neoliberal ideology for protectionist measures in dealing with the 2008/2009 financial and economic turbulence. This lends credence to a rethink of macroeconomic policies for the less developed and developing economies. Using data generated from the World Development Indicators (WDI), an organ of the World Bank, in regression analyses, this article argues that the macroeconomic policy of import-substitution industrialisation contributed to the current economic developments in Brazil and South Africa. The article suggests that an import-substitution industrialisation policy is not only appropriate to galvanise industrialisation in less industrialised economies, but also augments a sustainable economic growth.

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Gräbner, Claudius, Philipp Heimberger, Jakob Kapeller, and Bernhard Schütz. "Is the Eurozone disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarisation, trade and fragility." Cambridge Journal of Economics 44, no. 3 (January 15, 2020): 647–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cje/bez059.

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Abstract This paper analyses macroeconomic developments in the Eurozone since its inception in 1999. In doing so, we document a process of divergence and polarisation among those countries that joined the Eurozone during its first two years. We find evidence for a ‘core–periphery’ pattern among Eurozone countries, that is, however, marked by substantial heterogeneity within these two clusters. We show how the polarisation process underlying this pattern first manifested in increasing current account imbalances, before it translated unto the level of general macroeconomic development when the crisis hit. Empirically, we demonstrate how this macroeconomic divergence is tied to a ‘structural polarisation’ in terms of the sectoral composition of Eurozone countries; specifically, the emergence of export-driven growth in core countries and debt-driven growth in the Eurozone periphery can be traced back to differences in technological capabilities and firm performance. Pushing for convergence within Europe requires the implementation of industrial policies aiming at a technological catch-up process in periphery countries in combination with public investment and progressive redistributional policies to sustain adequate levels of aggregate demand in all Eurozone countries.

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Altinkemer, Melike, and Nazim K. Ekinci. "Capital Account Liberalization: The Case of Turkey." New Perspectives on Turkey 8 (1992): 89–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.15184/s0896634600000637.

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After experiencing serious macroeconomic imbalances in the 1977-1980 period, fundamental policy changes were introduced in Turkey on January 24, 1980. The problems addressed were typical of a middle income country constrained by its balance of payments: inability to service foreign debt and inability to finance imports required for production, high inflation rates, and all other related macroeconomic imbalances. The reasons for the 1977-1980 crisis and subsequent developments, including post-1980 developments, have already been studied extensively by a number of researchers. We shall, therefore, refer the reader to the relevant literature (e.g. Celasun and Rodrik, 1989; Ekinci, 1990; Uygur, 1991) and concentrate on the narrower topic of external financial liberalization or capital account liberalization and the related topic of exchange rates which has attracted much less attention.

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Schmitz, Christian, Janina-Vanessa Schneider, Jan Helge Guba, Michael Ahlers, and Jan Wieseke. "Development and Analysis of a Sales-Based Leading Indicator for Economic Developments." Marketing ZFP 43, no. 1-2 (2021): 54–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.15358/0344-1369-2021-1-2-54.

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As official statistics concerning macroeconomic changes are often presented with delay, economic barometers with the ability to forecast developments have a high relevance for managerial and political decision makers. Despite the sales function being frequently named as one central source of information for business forecasts, it is often neglected in this context. The aim of this paper is the development of a sales-based leading indicator using a first empirical validation with a sample of 3,584 respondents over a period of 15 quarters (2017-2020). Through an explorative study, the authors demonstrate that this indicator has the capacity make predictions about GDP developments. The paper provides first results showing specific circumstances under which the forecast is stronger. This paper offers an alternative perspective for the development of a leading indicator, therefore provides an important addition to this research field. It shows that sales executives are important to be considered in this context.

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Slay, Ben. "The Polish economic transition: outcome and lessons." Communist and Post-Communist Studies 33, no. 1 (March 1, 2000): 49–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0967-067x(99)00025-2.

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This article provides an overview of, and draws conclusions about, Poland's economic transition during the 1990s. Special attention is paid to macroeconomic and external developments, privatization, and the lessons of the Polish experience for other transition economies.

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Samedova, Ofelija, and Ali Nabiev. "The formation of macroeconomic proportions in the new economic conditions." Ekonomika APK 310, no. 8 (August 28, 2020): 93–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.32317/2221-1055.202008093.

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The purpose of the article is to explore the issue of the formation of macroeconomic proportions in the conditions of the shaping of new economic relations. Research methods. The works of the classics of economic science, modern research of foreign scientists-economists, scientific developments of domestic scientists, decisions and decrees of the government of the Republic of Azerbaijan on improving the structure of the economy and increasing its efficiency are used. Research results. The interrelation of economic and social links of macroeconomic proportions is theoretically and methodologically substantiated. The essence of the formation of macroeconomic proportions as a functional basis for building a socially oriented economy is characterized. Scientific novelty. The process of formation of primary income during the transformation period, the level and dynamics of wages and GDP, trends in the ratio of wages and labor productivity, as well as profits in the value and sectoral structure of GDP are considered, macroeconomic indicators of the efficiency of the national economy are analyzed. Practical significance. The research results can be used to substantiate social and economic efficiency associated with the formation of macroeconomic proportions of the national economy during the transformation period and the performance of industrial enterprises. Refs.: 17.

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Gradev, Grigor, Enisa Salimovic, and Bruno Sergi. "Developments of the economies, macroeconomic indicators and challenges in south-east European countries." SEER 16, no. 3 (2013): 251–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/1435-2869-2013-3-251.

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Chudý, Marek, and Erhard Reschenhofer. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Factor-Augmented Adjusted Band Regression." Econometrics 7, no. 4 (December 4, 2019): 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/econometrics7040046.

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Previous findings indicate that the inclusion of dynamic factors obtained from a large set of predictors can improve macroeconomic forecasts. In this paper, we explore three possible further developments: (i) using automatic criteria for choosing those factors which have the greatest predictive power; (ii) using only a small subset of preselected predictors for the calculation of the factors; and (iii) utilizing frequency-domain information for the estimation of the factor models. Reanalyzing a standard macroeconomic dataset of 143 U.S. time series and using the major measures of economic activity as dependent variables, we find that (i) is not helpful, whereas focusing on the low-frequency components of the factors and disregarding the high-frequency components can actually improve the forecasting performance for some variables. In the case of the gross domestic product, a combination of (ii) and (iii) yields the best results.

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