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1
Nicoară, Mihaela. "Unemployment – the Macroeconomic Imbalance." International conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION 27, no. 2 (2021): 52–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/kbo-2021-0047.
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Abstract Through the socio-economic generated implications, unemployment is a very complex social phenomenon. The economic reality showed there is no single solution for unemployment. There are no pure and perfect solutions, only integrated programs in the anti-crisis political system. The phenomenon itself cannot be eliminated, it can only be addressed. Through the socio-economic generated implications, the unemployment is a very complex social phenomenon, being related with poverty. Unemployment induces a drastic decrease of the living standards. As a macroeconomic complex imbalance, it impacts all the compartments of the national economy. The economic history of our century reveals that unemployment has become a mass nature. The financial difficulties of the companies, inlet by covid-19 global crises, caused a mass disorder of all the economic activity, impacting the labour market and a concern of the government to find ideal solutions to increase employment.
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Pimonenko, Tetyana, Olena Chygryn, Oleksii Lyulyov, and Bohdan Kovalov. "Macroeconomic imbalance to convergence: EU experience for Ukraine." Geopolitics under Globalization 2, no. 1 (2018): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/gg.02(1).2018.01.
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The paper deals with analysis of the mechanism of macroeconomic imbalance estimation and achieving the convergence of national economy. With this purpose the authors summarized the main approaches to define the macroeconomic imbalance. In addition, the main indicators which influence macroeconomic imbalance are allocated. On the basis of obtained results, the authors offer to employ the macroeconomic imbalance procedure which is used in EU countries for investigation. In order to achieve this external, internal and employment indicators in EU were analyzed by authors. Besides, with the purpose to indicate Ukrainian place comparing with EU, in particular with Visegrad Countries, the main indicators of MIP for Ukraine were calculated by the authors. According to the results, the authors made conclusion that the Ukrainian economy can be characterized as not stable (as in Bulgaria, Hungary and the Slovak Republic). Moreover, the authors allocated for the future research the necessity to understand the power of countries impact to each other with the purpose to achieve and save the convergence of national economy.
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Smales, Lee A. "Order imbalance, market returns and macroeconomic news." Research in International Business and Finance 26, no. 3 (2012): 410–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2012.04.001.
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Kim, Soyoung, and Jaewoo Lee. "INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 19, no. 7 (2014): 1509–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100513000916.
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This paper investigates the international dimension of economic fluctuations and transmission of structural shocks by estimating a structural VAR model for the United States, the euro area, and Japan—the three largest economies—over the post-Bretton Woods period. The main findings are as follows: (1) Supply-side shocks (technology and supply-level shocks) explain most of the fluctuations in cross-country output deviations. (2) Real-demand shocks are the most important source of real-exchange-rate fluctuations. (3) Current account is usually influenced by all types of shocks, with technology shocks playing a stronger role. In particular, technology shocks play a prominent role in the existing global imbalance (the large external deficit of the United States). (4) Technology and supply-level shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between output differential and current account, whereas real and nominal-demand shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between real exchange rate and current account.
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Jin, Jihong, and Michael Steffens. "Factors Analysis of the Electronics Industry Trade Imbalance between the US and China." International Journal of Marketing Studies 7, no. 6 (2015): 172. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijms.v7n6p172.
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<p>The US and China trade imbalance is a highly debated topic, and cause of trade conflict between the US and China. One particularly strong area of the trade imbalance is the electronics industry, which as of the year 2013 represented more than 45% of the total trade balance, the largest subsection of any industry. In order to understand the macroeconomic factors influencing overall trade balance as well as trade balance in the Electronics Industry, this study uses Ordinary Least Squares Regression analysis model to examine how macroeconomic factors such as Exchange Rate, China GDP, US GDP, and CPI affect the trade balance. The results are then compared to an equivalent analysis on the electronics industry using factors such as China Electronics Industry Production, US Electronics Industry Production, Exchange Rate, and CPI. The findings are surprising, showing that the same factors that are traditionally strongly correlated with a change in the overall trade balance, actually have an opposite effect on the Electronics industry trade balance. This paper explores not only what macro economic factors cause the trade imbalances, but also why they happen.</p>
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Anghelache, Constantin, Mădălina-Gabriela Anghel, Ştefan Virgil Iacob, and Dana Luiza Grigorescu. "Study on the effect of crises on economic correlations and macrostability." Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics 2, no. 1 (2020): 14–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/icas-2021-0002.
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Abstract Economic growth is a goal of every country and equally of the European Community. In this sense, all national strategies related and not subordinated to the European Union’s strategy aim at economic growth, which will ensure the improvement of the quality of life. Economic growth is always achieved by the level registered by the Gross Domestic Product (Gross Domestic Product per capita) these being the most important indicators of results calculated at macroeconomic level. The proper functioning of a country’s economy must be based, first of all, on certain correlations that are established between socio-economic variables, a context in which there must be certain proportions. The evolution of the economy in free market conditions reaches imbalances at certain times, a context in which macroeconomic stability is affected. Most often, crises, regardless of their health, economic, economic or financial nature, have the first effect of affecting macroeconomic stability. In the current conditions, when we face the health crisis, combined with the economic and financial crisis, the macroeconomic imbalance is obvious by not respecting some proportions and correlations, which must be established at the macroeconomic level. The analysis of this aspect of crises and their effect on economic correlations and macrostability is the subject of the study in this article.
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Hodson, Dermot. "The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure as European integration: a legalization perspective." Journal of European Public Policy 25, no. 11 (2017): 1610–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1340326.
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Koziuk, Viktor. "THE MAGNITUDE OF FINANCIAL IMBALANCES CORRECTION AND THE PROBLEM OF RESTORING GROWTH." JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY 16, no. 1/2017 (2017): 15–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/jee2017.01.015.
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EMU imbalances correction sparked active discussions on choosing the optimal policy for mitigating risks of divergence and restoring competitiveness. Concentration on balance of payments is within the framework of simultaneously solving the problem of external imbalance, capital outflow, restoring growth, and preventing the opposing vectors of trajectory of the real effective exchange rates. However, overcoming the crisis consequences requires a wider approach to how the imbalances correction contributes to the growth recovery. Theoretically, the rate of post-crisis growth recovery should correspond with the variables that constitute imbalances correction. Based on regression analysis, it is clear that such hypothesis is proved only partially. Growth is more likely to recover if there is a more substantial correction of current account and credit market cleaning-up, whereas the correction on real estate market is not as effective. At the same time, real disposable income correction is likely to negatively influence the growth recovery. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that internal devaluation shouldn’t be utilized as an option during macroeconomic adjustment. It should occur with credit market cleaning-up. Fiscal space is crucial here, as it determines the credibility of fiscal policy devoted to mitigation of accumulated household sector debt burden. The reaction to the financial cycle is a fundamentally important element of macroeconomic management in the monetary union in regards to the macroeconomic design of integration zone.
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Begg, Iain. "Fiscal and Other Rules in EU Economic Governance: Helpful, Largely Irrelevant or Unenforceable?" National Institute Economic Review 239 (February 2017): R3—R13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011723900110.
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EU Member States, particularly in the Euro Area, have been pushed to adopt more extensive and intrusive fiscal rules, but what is the evidence that the rules are succeeding? The EU level Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has been – and remains – the most visible rule-book, but it has been complemented by a profusion of national rules and by new provisions on other sources of macroeconomic imbalance. Much of the analysis of rules has concentrated on their technical merits, but tends to neglect the political economy of compliance. This paper examines the latter, looking at compliance with fiscal rules at EU and Member State levels and at the rules-based mechanisms for curbing other macroeconomic imbalances. It concludes that politically driven implementation and enforcement shortcomings have been given too little attention, putting at risk the integrity and effectiveness of the rules.
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Mlodkowski, Pawel. "Assessment of Feldstein’s ‘Global Imbalance'." European Integration Studies 1, no. 15 (2021): 125–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eis.1.15.28787.
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This note is a systematic review of arguments provided by Feldstein (2008) on the necessity for global readjustments, both in the U.S. and in main trading partners. The purpose is to address the main arguments in the scientific and political debate on persistent To date, there has been no publication that challenged the opinions leading to totally wrong forecasts concerning the global imbalance. With a perspective of more than 10 years of post-2008-crisis developments, and together with empirical evidence one can easily see how erroneous were the arguments formulated in 2008. The tasks included a systematic review of all arguments formulated by Martin Feldstein in 2008, and casting them against empirical evidence. The U.S. current account (CA) deficit has continued for many years, since 1982, and has not changed, as foreseen by Feldstein. The primary method is a simple comparative analysis, supported by basic macroeconomic data. They allow to reveal multiple processes leading to further deterioration of the U.S. trade balance. Neither savings rate domestically nor abroad adjusted to give a basis for solving the global imbalance. In the same time, all traditional arguments presented on global imbalances seem undeniable. However, an alternative interpretation of the imbalance does not recognize the CA deficit as “a gift to the U.S. economy”. This paper sheds new light on the “global imbalance”, suggesting that increasing domestic absorption by China may be an important factor in resolving the U.S. problematic and persistent trade deficit. Disaster-scenarios may be not there in the U.S. to experience. Future developments may be far from those announced, and previously expected by Feldstein in his seminal paper. A careful reader may conclude that all coming changes and adjustments will be slow, gradual, and will not cause any major issues in the global economy. Such conclusions seem most justified by hard data and therefore encouraging. As the topic remains central to open economy empirical macroeconomics, continuation of studies on this issue seems natural. The U.S. and China will remain the biggest economies, and, as such, they are central to the global situation.
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Mihajlović, Vladimir, and Gordana Marjanović. "Challenges of the Output-Employment Growth Imbalance in Transition Economies." Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy 67, no. 2 (2021): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ngoe-2021-0007.
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Abstract The trade-off between output and unemployment has become an essential part of modern macroeconomics and is known as Okun’s law. However, in transition and emerging markets economies’ context, the output-employment nexus has a much more important role as these countries strive to significantly improve the growth dynamics of both variables. This paper aims to analyze the particularities of this relationship in selected Central- and South-Eastern European transition (and former transition) countries to find out a discrepancy between the output and employment growth. Therefore, the employment elasticity coefficients are calculated. The estimated results suggest that, in the observed period, economic growth has not contributed to satisfactory employment growth, which is commonly referred to as a “jobless growth” hypothesis. Accordingly, this paper attempts to single out the main challenges of the output-employment growth misbalance in these countries and propose adequate policy measures that could reduce it. The industrial policy that differentiates from the “one-size-fits-all” paradigm is emphasized as the most important part of macroeconomic policy in transition economies to make their development more balanced. Additionally, short-run stabilization policy, especially the one focused on the labour market, has a significant role in these economies.
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Arahuetes García, Alfredo, and Gonzalo Gómez Bengoechea. "The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure: A useful tool for predicting sovereign crises?" Estudios de economía 45, no. 1 (2018): 79–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/s0718-52862018000100079.
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Brown, Richard P. C. "Migrants' Remittances, Capital Flight, and Macroeconomic Imbalance in Sudan's Hidden Economy." Journal of African Economies 1, no. 1 (1992): 86–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.jae.a036746.
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Pucar, Emilija Beker, та Olgica Glavaški. "Macroeconomic Еxternal (Im)Balances within the Eurozone: Core Vs Periphery". Economic Themes 57, № 3 (2019): 257–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ethemes-2019-0015.
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AbstractSince the foundation of the eurozone (EZ) until the crisis outbreak, the macroeconomic imbalances between EZ core and EZ periphery have been identified at the internal and external plan. Growing external divergence was evident in the precrisis period reflected in the chronic current account deficit of the periphery, and vice versa for the core EZ members. However, external imbalance within the EZ has been substantially narrowed in the postcrisis period. Based on the panel data framework, crucial factors of current account improvement/worsening are identified in the precrisis 1999-2007 period, as well as the postcrisis 2008-2017 period. Random effect model with standard errors robust to autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity is estimated, in which current account is analysed in dependence from economic growth, fiscal balance, EZ interest rate, real effective exchange rate, openness and dummy variable for the EZ core/periphery. Empirical findings for the precrisis period confirm macroeconomic overheating of the periphery as the main cause of current account worsening, while the postcrisis improvement has been achieved mainly through fiscal contraction and European Central Bank (ECB) loosened monetary stance.
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Slav’yuk, Rostyslav, Lyudmyla Shkvarchuk, and Iryna Kondrat. "Financial market imbalance: reasons and peculiarities of occurrence in Ukraine." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 14, no. 1 (2017): 227–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(1-1).2017.09.
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Financial imbalance is the reason of a macroeconomic instability. This study aims at identifying the institutional causes of financial markets imbalance. The authors consider that financial intermediaries in Ukraine work in a speculative market segment carrying out high-risk transactions with the purpose of earning a huge profit. In fact, in Ukraine the role of these institutions in the investment process financing is insignificant. The authors show that soundness of banks along with the ease of access to loans and a low level of confidence in national banking system are the main reasons of instability in financial market in Ukraine. Due to scarcity of financial capacity and refusal to carry out transactions in a high-risk market segments, insurance companies are unable to entirely perform functions of risk redistribution. Competitiveness of Ukrainian financial market remains low with a limited financial services nomenclature and it may be considered to be attractive for potential foreign investors.
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STAVÁREK, Daniel, and Petra RŮČKOVÁ. "COMPARISON OF ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE THRESHOLDS OF MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE INDICATORS IN SELECTED EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES." Folia Pomeranae Universitatis Technologiae Stetinensis Oeconomica 331, no. 85 (2017): 159–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.21005/oe.2016.85.4.16.
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Tao, Lixin, Yingfan Guo, and Weiwei Du. "Criteria for omnibearing imbalance of macroeconomic system structures and their strategic optimization." Kybernetes 40, no. 5/6 (2011): 848–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/03684921111142395.
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Bebee, Jared, and Ben Hunt. "Rapidly Rising Energy Prices: Does the Driver of the Energy Market Imbalance Matter?" National Institute Economic Review 199 (January 1, 2007): 114–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0027950107077130.
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This paper uses a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) to examine the macroeconomic impact of the rise in energy prices since the end of 2003 in the Euro Area, the United Kingdom and the United Sates. The analysis illustrates how the impact varies across these countries based on their level of energy use and energy production. In addition, the analysis uses Euro Area simulations to consider how the macroeconomic implications depend on the factors driving higher energy prices. If labour supply or tradable sector productivity increases in emerging Asian economies are an important factor driving energy price increases, then industrial countries receive some positive terms-of-trade effects coming through non-energy tradable goods that offset some of the negative implications of permanently higher real energy prices. The stronger are the industrial countries' trade links with emerging Asia, the larger will be the offsets.
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Zhang, Hang, and Qingbao Liu. "Online Learning Method for Drift and Imbalance Problem in Client Credit Assessment." Symmetry 11, no. 7 (2019): 890. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym11070890.
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Machine learning algorithms have been widely used in the field of client credit assessment. However, few of the algorithms have focused on and solved the problems of concept drift and class imbalance. Due to changes in the macroeconomic environment and markets, the relationship between client characteristics and credit assessment results may change over time, causing concept drift in client credit assessments. Moreover, client credit assessment data are naturally asymmetric and class imbalanced because of the screening of clients. Aiming at solving the joint research issue of concept drift and class imbalance in client credit assessments, in this paper, a novel sample-based online learning ensemble (SOLE) for client credit assessment is proposed. A novel multiple time scale ensemble classifier and a novel sample-based online class imbalance learning procedure are proposed to handle the potential concept drift and class imbalance in the client credit assessment data streams. The experiments are carried out on two real-world client credit assessment cases, which present a comprehensive comparison between the proposed SOLE and other state-of-the-art online learning algorithms. In addition, the base classifier preference and the computing resource consumption of all the comparative algorithms are tested. In general, SOLE achieves a better performance than other methods using fewer computing resources. In addition, the results of the credit scoring model and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test also prove that SOLE has good practicality in actual client credit assessment applications.
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Magazzino, Cosimo, Francesco Felici, and Vanja Bozic. "A new approach to the Scoreboard." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 4 (2015): 659–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-01-2014-0024.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the information content of the variables that can help detecting external and internal imbalances in an early stage. The starting point is the Scoreboard, where nine indicators are chosen in order to increase macroeconomic surveillance of all member states. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides an overview of the variables that could be informative for imbalances by focusing on EU-27 countries over the period 1960-2010. The number of chosen variables is 28, and they are aggregated in six macro-areas. Therefore, once an imbalance is observed in any of those areas, it is possible to detect in a simple way which specific variable is determining such outcome. Findings – In general, this approach provides reliable signal to the policy-makers about the indicators that can drive imbalances within the area, shedding light on the relationship among the variables included in the analysis, too. Research limitations/implications – In fact, the empirical results underline some well-known critical issue for several countries, and is largely in line with results obtained in a variety of EC and OECD studies. Originality/value – The main added value of the approach adopted in this paper is the introduction of more variables than those initially proposed by the European Commission in the construction of the Scoreboard. This provides more information about the macroeconomic situation in each country, preserving, however, the simplicity of the analysis as the variables are aggregated by homogeneous areas.
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Biegun, Krzysztof, and Jacek Karwowski. "Macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP) scoreboard indicators and their predictive strength of “multidimensional crises”." Equilibrium 15, no. 1 (2020): 11–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/eq.2020.001.
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Research background: The evaluation of the predictive strength of MIP indicators in relation to crises is extremely important for the process of coordinating the economic policies of the EU countries. MIP is one of the pillars of the economic crisis prevention procedure. Predictive power of individual indicators has not been tested before their introduction.
 Purpose of the article: Evaluation of the predictive strength of fourteen MIP indicators in relation to multidimensional crises in the EU countries.
 Methods: We used ordered probit model to test the ability of MIP indicators to correctly predict episodes of “multidimensional crises” (as defined by the authors) in the period between 2008 and 2017 in all EU Member States.
 Findings & Value added: We defined “multidimensional crises”, combining several negative phenomena into one limited dependent variable. This work is also novel in its application of probit regression to test the predictive strength of MIP indicators with an ordered probit model. We identified five MIP variables which were statistically significant in predicting “multidimensional crises” for all EU countries: net international investment position, nominal unit labour cost index, house price index, private sector credit flow and general government gross debt. Other variables turned out to be less important or not effective in crises prediction.
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Shi, Ji. "MACRO-ECONOMIC FACTORS OF SINO-US TRADE IMBALANCET." International Trade and Trade Policy, no. 3 (September 30, 2020): 39–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2410-7395-2020-3-39-57.
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China is one of the developing countries with the most rapid development and the U.S. is de-veloped country with the strongest economic strength, economic development of the two coun-tries has become main impetus of the world economic growth. Sino-US bilateral trade has be-come the most important constituent part of global trade. With the rapid development of Sino-US bilateral trade, trade imbalance also lead great concern of the two governments and academic circles, especially after China entered into WTO, the problem of Sino-US trade imbalance be-come even more serious. This paper mainly analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on China-US trade deficit, as economists generally believe that savings and exchange rates are closely related to trade balance. Undervalued exchange rate can keep relatively low prices for products made in China, while the booming domestic demand in the United States provides China with a wide variety of external market opportunities. This paper points out that difference in saving rates between the two countries is an important macroeconomic reason for the contin-ued growth of China’s trade surplus with the United States in international trade. The RMB exchange rate is an influencing factor, but not a fundamental one.
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Oleshko, А. А., and О. І. Trokhymets. "REGIONAL ANTI-CRISIS POLICY IN THE CONDITION OF MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY." Економічний вісник. Серія: фінанси, облік, оподаткування, no. 3 (March 28, 2019): 164–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.33244/2617-5932.3.2019.164-170.
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In the article measures of the regional anti-crisis policy aimed at achieving the strategic goals of sustainable development of the state in the conditions of macroeconomic instability have been developed, based on the results of the analysis of the level of socio-economic development of the regions. The regional anti-crisis policy should be oriented towards the achievement of strategic goals of sustainable development of the State on the principles of reduction of interregional imbalance, decentralization and increase of competitiveness under the condition of ensuring socio-ecological and economic balance.
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Ćurčić, Mihailo, Irena Milojević, and Nikola Krunić. "Mutual impact of personal income tax and macroeconomic indicators." Industrija 48, no. 3 (2020): 27–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/industrija48-25978.
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From mid-2006 to the end of 2008, numerous decisions were adopted in the public finances of the Republic of Serbia, which resulted in a permanent reduction in tax revenues and in increase of public expenditures. It creates a systemic imbalance between government revenue and expenditure, that is, the fiscal deficit. The emergence of the fiscal deficit is the main motive of the conducted research, where by using a simple regression analysis of the time series of macroeconomic data, authors linked the indicators of economic growth and personal income tax. The results of the research indicate the importance of the influence of personal income tax on the creation of a favorable macroeconomic environment, where the regulation and reform of the existing tax system are imposed as imperatives.
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Kousenidis, Dimitrios V., Anestis C. Ladas, and Christos I. Negkakis. "Aggregate Accounting Data and the Prediction of Credit Risk." International Journal of Accounting 54, no. 01 (2019): 1950001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s109440601950001x.
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A recent area of accounting research concerns the ability of changes in aggregate earnings to predict various macroeconomic fundamentals. We extend this line of research and examine whether changes in aggregate earnings convey information regarding the changes in future sovereign risk, which is considered a proxy for changes in aggregate risk. The results of the study indicate that aggregate earnings changes have predictive ability for sovereign credit risk. This result persists even after controlling for liquidity and indicators of macroeconomic imbalance, as well as under alternative research specifications. We also find that in some of the research specifications, future sovereign credit risk is affected by earnings management. In general, our results point towards the presence of significant information in earnings that is related to future sovereign risk.
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Lutsenko, Sergey. "Putting the economic indicators of society wellbeing on the agenda." Obshchestvo i ekonomika, no. 8 (2021): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s020736760016140-3.
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The author considers three indicators which characterize the development of national economies: energy intensity of GDP, labor productivity and the index of human development (an indicator of quality of life of the population). Some other indicators are discussed characterizing a macroeconomic imbalance and estimating sustainable development of the economy and wellbeing of society. The indicator of human wellbeing is connected with desires (preferences) of people or satisfaction with life.
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Makoto, Richard. "Financial integration and macroeconomic volatility in Zimbabwe." Journal of Economics and Development 22, no. 2 (2020): 229–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jed-11-2019-0063.
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PurposeMany developing countries are pursuing policies that foster international financial integration after decades of financial repression. Greater access to foreign financial markets may have both positive and negative impact on the performance of the economy. One of the concerns of international financial integration is macroeconomic volatility which may affect both monetary and real sectors. Zimbabwe has chosen to pursue a financial liberalization strategy in the form of imperfect financial integration following periods of excessive domestic shocks. An upsurge of capital flows since the epic of economic crisis in the 2000s has been observed with varying macroeconomic impacts. This study empirically examines the impact of partial international financial integration on the volatility of macroeconomic variables.Design/methodology/approachThe study utilized an ARDL Model suggested by Pesaran et al., (2003) which is appropriate for short time periods.FindingsThe results show that financial integration has a negative effect on output volatility while insignificant on consumption volatility.Practical implicationsThe study recommends that the country should gradually liberalize the capital account and properly sequence financial development reforms in order to minimize losses from global financial integration.Originality/valueThe study used time series for Zimbabwe during a period of external imbalance, repeated economic cycles, sudden stops in capital flows and limited scope of imperfect financial integration. Findings in such an economy will be a referral for policymakers in other economies that would want to pursue international financial integration.
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Siranova, Maria, and Marek Radvanský. "Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure in light of historical experience in the CEE region." Journal of Economic Policy Reform 21, no. 4 (2017): 335–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2017.1364642.
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Aye Sudarto. "PERTUMBUHAN DAN PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMI MAKRO SYARIAH DI INDONESIA." At Taajir : Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Keuangan Syariah 1, no. 1 (2019): 59–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.47902/attaajir.v1i1.28.
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Abstract
 Macroeconomics that play an important role can often have a serious impact on a country's growth. We can mention one by one what is part of the macro economy that affects the national economy are low economic growth, poverty and unemployment, inflation, low rupiah exchange rate, energy crisis, state budget deficit, and imbalance of trade balance and payments become adult national economic problems this. In view of the growth, development, opportunities and challenges of sharia macroeconomics in Indonesia, it is important that we first understand the economic system adopted by Indonesia today. As we know that what determines the shape of an economic system except the basis of a state philosophy that is upheld, the criteria are institutions, especially economic institutions that become the manifestation or realization of the philosophy. Sharia Macroeconomics in Indonesia is not yet signi fi cant in influencing macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia, due to its small assets compared to conventional economies. Indonesia has the potential to be able to position itself as the center of World Sharia finance. We have strong capital to make this happen, because besides Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world, Indonesia is also a member of the G-20 and a country with the fifth largest population in the world that has a rapidly growing middle income. Sharia economy and finance can make a very significant contribution in lifting the quality of the Indonesian economy.
 Keyword : Macroeconomics, Sharia Macroeconomics, Sharia Finance
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Tomáš, Domonkos, Ostrihoň Filip, Šikulová Ivana, and Širaňová Mária. "Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators." National Institute Economic Review 239 (February 2017): R32—R52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011723900112.
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The EU established an early warning system by introducing the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in the wake of the recent recession. Nevertheless, it has been found by some authors to be rather vague when launching the Excessive Imbalances Procedure. Performed analysis reflects on such views and treats the MIP indicators as a system while assessing the significance of all particular variables separately. This assessment was accomplished by applying a multivariate unbalanced logit model, utilising all 14 MIP headline indicators, using time horizons ranging from one to three years before crisis, which was represented by periods with output gap lower than negative 2 per cent. The approach was confronted with the estimates of a linear probability model to provide an idea about the robustness of the results. In the short term, activity rates, youth unemployment rates and private sector debt are the best performing indicators, complemented by current account balances in the long term.
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Drobyshevsky, S., S. Sinelnikov-Murylev, and I. Sokolov. "Transformation of Budgetary Policy in Russia during the 2000s: in Quest of National Fiscal Sustainability." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 20, 2011): 4–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2011-1-4-25.
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The crisis of 2008-2009 gave start to a new phase of budgetary policy in Russia. Despite the fact that at present the state of Russian budget seems much better than in most of developed countries, high dependence on oil and gas tax revenues and revealed trends in the structure of budget liabilities point out high persistence risks of budget imbalance in the long run. Reinsuring fiscal and macroeconomic stability requires some urgent and important reforms both in tax and budgetary policy.
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Bacchini, Fabio, Rosa Ruggeri Cannata, and Elena Donà. "Evaluating economic and social convergences across European countries: Could Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure indicators shed some light?" Statistical Journal of the IAOS 36, no. 2 (2020): 471–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/sji-190510.
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Li, Xiu Ming, and Jian Guo Chen. "Research on Shanghai Districts’ Construction Industry Competitiveness." Applied Mechanics and Materials 174-177 (May 2012): 3397–403. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.174-177.3397.
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Shanghai districts’ construction industry competitiveness is evaluated and ranked, based on factor analysis, cluster analysis, neural network and the construction industry statistics of Shanghai statistics yearbook in 2007-2011. The evaluation shows that, there is imbalance in the 18 Shanghai districts’ industry scale and output efficiency competitiveness. And the industry in Pudong New Area is far more competitive than the rest of the various districts and counties, which just fits Chinese macroeconomic policies. New countermeasures and suggestions would be established in terms of the characteristics of each district which had been found.
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CHERNY, NICOLÁS. "Institutions, credibility and crisis: the inconsistencies of Argentine exchange rate policy (1991-2006)." Revista de Economia Política 35, no. 1 (2015): 95–113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572015v35n01a06.
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The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.
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Merkaš, Zvonko, Davor Perkov, and Petra Miličević. "Managing Macroeconomic Risks by Using Statistical Simulation." Acta Economica Et Turistica 3, no. 1 (2017): 27–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/aet-2017-0004.
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Abstract The paper analyzes the possibilities of using statistical simulation in the macroeconomic risks measurement. At the level of the whole world, macroeconomic risks are, due to the excessive imbalance, significantly increased. Using analytical statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation, the authors interpret the collected data sets, compare and analyze them in order to mitigate potential risks. The empirical part of the study is a qualitative case study that uses statistical methods and Monte Carlo simulation for managing macroeconomic risks, which is the central theme of this work. Application of statistical simulation is necessary because the system, for which it is necessary to specify the model, is too complex for an analytical approach. The objective of the paper is to point out the previous need for consideration of significant macroeconomic risks, particularly in terms of the number of the unemployed in the society, the movement of gross domestic product and the country’s credit rating, and the use of data previously processed by statistical methods, through statistical simulation, to analyze the existing model of managing the macroeconomic risks and suggest elements for a management model development that will allow, with the lowest possible probability and consequences, the emergence of the recent macroeconomic risks. The stochastic characteristics of the system, defined by random variables as input values defined by probability distributions, require the performance of a large number of iterations on which to record the output of the model and calculate the mathematical expectations. The paper expounds the basic procedures and techniques of discrete statistical simulation applied to systems that can be characterized by a number of events which represent a set of circumstances that have caused a change in the system’s state and the possibility of its application in the field of assessment of macroeconomic risks. The method has no limitations. It can be used to study very complex systems by using special computer programs. The method uses reasonable estimates for important economic inputs to determine a set of results, not only one outcome at one point in time, yet there is a multiple-possibilities estimation of a certain risk performance, regarding the range of economic variables used in the model. Attempt to influence and influence itself on certain macroeconomic risks, in today’s economy, occupies one of the primary imperatives of the world, therefore, this paper deals with the mutual correlation and application of statistical simulations in macroeconomic risks measurement in order to better prevention and remediation.
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Misztal, Piotr. "Globalna nierównowaga finansowa we współczesnej gospodarce światowej." Zeszyty Naukowe SGGW w Warszawie - Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego 18(33), no. 1 (2018): 149–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/prs.2018.18.1.14.
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The aim of this article is to assess the scale of global financial imbalance in countries with different levels of economic development, and to identify the main determinants of this phenomenon. In the paper, a research method based on literature studies in the field of international finance and international economics is used. In particular, rich foreign-language literature and Polish-language publications related to the analyzed subject were used. All statistical data used in the work comes from the International Monetary Fund's statistical database. Based on the literature, it has been found that the most important determinants of this phenomenon are surplus of global savings, mercantilism in East Asia and disturbances in international financial markets. The results of these studies have great importance, in particular from a macroeconomic point of view, as rising surpluses or current account deficits cause chronic surpluses or deficits in national budgets through the so-called twin deficits effect. In addition, current account imbalances affect the international competitive position of economies, prices of goods, services, currencies and production factors.
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Savage, James D., and David Howarth. "Enforcing the European Semester: the politics of asymmetric information in the excessive deficit and macroeconomic imbalance procedures." Journal of European Public Policy 25, no. 2 (2017): 212–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1363268.
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Lim, Charvin, and Siwi Nugraheni. "Loan-to-Value Ratio and Housing Price Cycle: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 18, no. 2 (2017): 225. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v18i2.4846.
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The subprime mortgage crisis in 2007-2009 which led to a global recession has highlighted the importance of regulating credit for housing market. The urgency arises not only to manage non-performing ratio, but further to manage price in the housing market which is a potent source of financial imbalance. Loan-to-value (LTV) regulation is imposed in order to dampen the housing price cycle, preventing the occurrence of bubble issue. This study tries to capture the influence of LTV implementation on housing price and assesses its effectiveness in the national scope. Error correction model is used to portray the short and long-term dynamics of housing cycle with regard to policy, macroeconomic, and financial variables. We concluded that LTV is an effective policy to dampen the price cycle in the long run, but not in the short run. In the short run, housing price is closely determined by the macroeconomic factors. Furthermore, we found that the implementation of LTV has made housing price to become more persistent, suggesting a change in the market expectation structure and the behavior of housing price cycle.
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Chen, K., and T. Jia. "SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE IMBALANCED REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN MAINLAND CHINA USING DMSP-OLS DATA." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-2/W7 (September 14, 2017): 1099–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-2-w7-1099-2017.
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The Defense Meteorological Satellite Programs Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) nighttime lights imagery has been widely used to monitor economic activities and regional development in recent decades. In this paper, we firstly processed the nighttime light imageries of the Mainland China from 1992 to 2013 due to the radiation or geometric errors. Secondly, by dividing the Mainland China into seven regions, we found high correlation between the sum light values and GDP of each region. Thirdly, we extracted the economic centers of each region based on their nighttime light images. Through the analysis, we found the distribution of these economic centers was relatively concentrated and the migration of these economic centers showed certain directional trend or circuitous changes, which suggested the imbalanced socio-economic development of each region. Then, we calculated the Regional Development Gini of each region using the nighttime light data, which indicated that social-economic development in South China presents great imbalance while it is relatively balanced in Southwest China. This study would benefit the macroeconomic control to regional economic development and the introduction of appropriate economic policies from the national level.
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Trouille, Jean-Marc. "Economic and Industrial Cooperation Between France and Germany: Assessment and Future Prospects." German Politics and Society 31, no. 1 (2013): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/gps.2012.310102.
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Economy and industry have traditionally been major stakes within the Franco-German relationship. This article examines French and German economic and industrial relations, and their importance for these countries' joint leadership in Europe. It investigates the level of economic interdependence and of macroeconomic convergence between the two largest Eurozone economies, industrial cooperation between French and German companies, discrepancies in their trade relations and investment flows, divergences in their respective economic and industrial policies, and the dichotomy between partnership and rivalry in their long-standing relationship. Finally, this article assesses the risk of increasing fiscal and industrial imbalance between the two economies and draws conclusions on its implications for the Franco-German entente in Europe.
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Miron, Dumitru, and Ileana Alexe. "Capital Flows and Income Convergence in the European Union. A Fresh Perspective in View of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure." Procedia Economics and Finance 8 (2014): 25–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00058-6.
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Ghosh, Indranil, and Tamal Datta Chaudhuri. "FEB-Stacking and FEB-DNN Models for Stock Trend Prediction: A Performance Analysis for Pre and Post Covid-19 Periods." Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering 4, no. 1 (2021): 51–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.31181/dmame2104051g.
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In this paper, stock price prediction is perceived as a binary classification problem where the goal is to predict whether an increase or decrease in closing prices is going to be observed the next day. The framework will be of use for both investors and traders. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, global financial markets have seen growing uncertainty and volatility and as a consequence, precise prediction of stock price trend has emerged to be extremely challenging. In this background, we propose two integrated frameworks wherein rigorous feature engineering, methodology to sort out class imbalance, and predictive modeling are clubbed together to perform stock trend prediction during normal and new normal times. A number of technical and macroeconomic indicators are chosen as explanatory variables, which are further refined through dedicated feature engineering process by applying Kernel Principal Component (KPCA) analysis. Bootstrapping procedure has been used to deal with class imbalance. Finally, two separate Artificial Intelligence models namely, Stacking and Deep Neural Network models are deployed separately on feature engineered and bootstrapped samples for estimating trends in prices of underlying stocks during pre and post Covid-19 periods. Rigorous performance analysis and comparative evaluation with other well-known models justify the effectiveness and superiority of proposed frameworks.
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TOLENTINO, Marta, Francisco JAREÑO, and Rocío Rubio. "THE EFFECT OF BANK RESTRUCTURING ON THE ISSUANCE OF PREFERRED SHARES IN SPAIN." Revista Galega de Economía 27, no. 1 (2018): 123–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.15304/rge.27.1.5231.
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Since 2007, when the real estate bubble burst, we was immersed in a global economiccrisis. During this period, the Spanish financial system has experienced a process ofeconomic imbalance and downturn as a consequence of massive exposure to theconstruction sector. In this context, the banking institutions, aware of the need torecapitalize their balance sheets, offered their retail clients a complex and high-riskproduct: preferred shares. What at first was considered the ideal solution forrecapitalizing the institutions has done nothing but worsen the economic situation,highlighting the vulnerability of the banking Spanish system. All of this gave rise to aprocess of bank restructuring that was unprecedented in Spain. The result has been thereduction of the number of banking institutions from 45 in 2009 to 12 today, with theconsequent repercussions on the macroeconomic variables and the economies of familiesand businesses.
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Djuric-Kuzmanovic, Tatjana, and Marija Vukovic. "Gender regimes and the challenges of macroeconomic paradigm in Serbia in the light of the global economic crisis." Temida 14, no. 2 (2011): 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tem1102005d.
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The paper is focused on the causes and gender effects of the current global economic crisis, its particular effects in the Republic of Serbia and on the possibilities of overcoming the crisis. Using feminist development economics perspective this paper offers criticism of neo-liberalism with respect to the crisis. The strong imbalance in the relationships between work and capital is explained as a result of neoliberal deregulation and separation of the market economy from social and natural reproduction, as well as ignoration of the hierarchical relation established between paid work and care as unpaid work performed mainly by women. With regard to Serbia, when foreign capital is lacking, privatization funds are empty and the structure deficit is significant, the economy has faced decrease in income, rise in unemployment, fall in aggregate demand and women and children suffer the most. A new gender sensitive development strategy should re-address the current unequal power relationship, so that all people can exercise choices that would lead them to a fulfilled life.
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BATIUK, Larysa. "MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION IN BASEL III: GLOBAL TRENDS." Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics 4, no. 3 (2019): 39–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2019-3-5.
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Introduction. The article deals with the peculiarities of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the implementation conditions of the Basel Committee requirements on Banking Supervision "Basel III". The problem of the mechanism violation of the classical monetary multiplier, the imbalance of the monetary circulation system, the frequency increase of debt defaults and the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuations in the global economic system are marked as a study result of the effects of the credit mitigation policy conducted by the US Federal Reserve amid the global financial crises of the last decade and changes in the nature of financial intermediation based on the synthesis of asset securitization and structured finance instruments. The purpose of this article is to investigate changes in monetary policy and financial intermediation in the implementation context of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Basel III as a source of imbalance in the global economy. Research methodology. The system method, method of scientific abstraction, methods of analysis and synthesis, statistical, comparison, generalization, scientific prediction were used. Results. The article deals with the implications of implementing the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Basel I and Basel II in the area of monetary policy and financial intermediation; peculiarities of monetary multiplier mechanism operation in modern conditions are revealed; the possible consequences of implementing Basel III requirements for the mechanism of monetary supply formation in the world economy are analysed; the change in the role of gold as monetary metal in central bank foreign exchange reserves and the implications of these changes in terms of price dynamics and the distribution of real wealth in the global economy are examined. Conclusions. It is proposed to consider the requirements of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision "Basel III" as such, which will exacerbate the volatility of global financial markets, increase the likelihood of increasing the frequency of debt defaults and, given the possibility of using gold as a means of redistribution of real wealth in the global economy, will cause an increase in the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuations. Keywords: monetary policy; financial intermediation; the central bank; US Federal Reserve; Basel III; bank capital structure, monetary base; money multiplier, correspondent accounts; money supply; monetary gold; global economy.
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Plakalovic, Novo. "The safety network system and prospects for the appearance of a financial crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina." Ekonomski anali 53, no. 178-179 (2008): 198–229. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka0879198p.
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The article is on the system of the safety network of the financial sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) and potential causes of possible financial instability. The network of protection of financial institutions in BH is to a certain extent incomplete but a high level of regulatory and supervisory activities has been present so far, which effects the expressed stability of financial institutions. Potential risks and the vulnerability of the financial system arise from a range of features which are characteristic of the local financial institutions, their activities, the condition of the BH economy, and macroeconomic stability and flows of goods and capital between the country and foreign countries. The sector of financial institutions has been privatized and it is in foreign ownership. Foreign exposure of domestic economy and financial markets is limited to only a small number of countries (Austria, Germany). There are pressures in respect of the increased rates of return on bank capital and there is a very high dynamic of credit growth. Possible unfavourable scenarios could bring about problems in the banking sector, which is shown by stress tests. The deterioration of the macroeconomic imbalance could also be a significant cause of serious problems in the local financial sector. There are no certain indicators that this could happen in the near future and influence the appearance of a financial crisis; however, such a situation cannot be ruled out.
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Postuła, Marta, Justyna Sobolewska, and Jacek Tomkiewicz. "CONVERGENCE PROGRAMMES AS AN ECONOMIC POLICY TOOL WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION." Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia 17, no. 4 (2018): 123–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/aspe.2018.17.4.59.
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The article presents the results of research indicating to what extent the convergence programmes submitted to the European Commission prove country’s willingness to improve the fiscal policy in a desired way and to what extent they constitute a mere fulfilment of a formal duty without any actual intent to achieve the indicated macroeconomic parameters. The conducted analyses allow to conclude that the European countries, while preparing the prognostic documents, have a tendency to hide the scale of the fiscal imbalance that reflects a lack of consistency between the current balance of the sector and an increase in the public debt. The results of quantitative and qualitative research indicate that, regardless of the implemented regulatory solutions at the EU level in the framework of the modified Stability and Growth Pact, certain flaws of the tools used for economic policy coordination at the European level are still visible.
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Patterson, Rolvix H., Victoria G. Fischman, Isaac Wasserman, et al. "Global Burden of Head and Neck Cancer: Economic Consequences, Health, and the Role of Surgery." Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery 162, no. 3 (2020): 296–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0194599819897265.
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Objective We aimed to describe the mortality burden and macroeconomic effects of head and neck cancer as well as delineate the role of surgical workforce in improving head and neck cancer outcomes. Study Design Statistical and economic analysis. Setting Research group. Subjects and Methods We conducted a statistical analysis on data from the World Development Indicators and the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study to describe the relationship between surgical workforce and global head and neck cancer mortality-to-incidence ratios. A value of lost output model was used to project the global macroeconomic effects of head and neck cancer. Results Significant differences in mortality-to-incidence ratios existed between Global Burden of Disease study superregions. An increase of surgical, anesthetic, and obstetric provider density by 10% significantly correlated with a reduction of 0.76% in mortality-to-incidence ratio ( P < .0001; adjusted R2 = 0.84). There will be a projected global cumulative loss of $535 billion US dollars (USD) in economic output due to head and neck cancer between 2018 and 2030. Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania will suffer the greatest gross domestic product (GDP) losses at $180 billion USD, and South Asia will lose $133 billion USD. Conclusion The mortality burden of head and neck cancer is increasing and disproportionately affects those in low- and middle-income countries and regions with limited surgical workforces. This imbalance results in large and growing economic losses in countries that already face significant resource constraints. Urgent investment in the surgical workforce is necessary to ensure access to timely surgical services and reverse these negative trends.
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Bosworth, Barry P., and Robert Z. Lawrence. "Managing Macroeconomic Imbalances." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 70, no. 5 (1988): 1006–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1241726.
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Vorob’ev, Yu N., and L. M. Borshch. "5 financial System: an Integrated approach in the Context of the State financial Policy." Finance: Theory and Practice 22, no. 5 (2018): 56–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2018-22-5-56-75.
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The purpose of our study was to substantiate theoretically and applied integrated approaches to the functioning and development of the fnancial system in the context of the state fnancial policy under the international sanctions. The study has been based on the theory of fnance, the dialectical method, and scientifc argumentation. We used a systemic approach, historical and economic-statistical methods as well. The authors substantiate the important scientifc direction of the modern fnancial system — modernization and progressive development and determine the consolidating functions of the state fnancial regulation, aimed at eliminating the imbalance, including new approaches to fnancing the budget defcit at the expense of borrowed funds. New approaches to macroeconomic orientation form new opportunities for modern modifcations in the fnancial system. On the basis of scientific arguments, the authors showed that although the federal budget of Russia plays a key role in the development of the fnancial system and the fnancial market, and the state fnancial policy acts as a macroeconomic regulator, the fnancial system of Russia develops on the basis of its own laws arising within it. The authors substantiate the point of view that the state fnancial policy is aimed at revealing the diversity of the functions of money circulation. This has an impact not only on social reproduction but also on the functioning and development of the fnancial system as a whole. The public fnancial policy should take into account the peculiarities of the functioning and development of the fnancial system in the context of constantly occurring macro-, meso-, and microeconomic processes. Of course, this will allow applying new approaches to modern changes in the fnancial system, and will also indicate the existence of a communicative convergent market, which is a sign of the formation of a “market of symbolic exchange of signs”, and hence of the new monetary changes.