Relevant bibliographies by topics / Macroeconomics – Models

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Macroeconomics – Models'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 March 2023
Last updated: 31 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Talavyrya, М., and B. Dorosh. "Development of macroeconomic models based on behavioral economics: issues and further research." Zemleustrìj, kadastr ì monìtorìng zemelʹ, no. 4 (October 27, 2021): 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.31548/zemleustriy2021.04.02.

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The article analyzes the formation, spread and development of behavioral economics in microeconomic research, as well as its development in macroeconomic research over the past two decades. The key shortcomings of neoclassical macroeconomic models and their critique based on existing research and practical application by central bankers are highlighted. The key stages in the formation of behavioral macroeconomics, elements of which began to appear in the works of neoclassical macroeconomists, have been identified. The main arguments in favor of replacing neoclassical macroeconomic models with
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Andreyev, Mikhail, and Andrey Polbin. "Trends of Macroeconomic Models." Administrative Consulting, no. 2 (June 7, 2019): 24–33. https://doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2019-2-24-33.

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This article provides an overview and analysis of the ideas of the leading macroeconomists expressed in the issue “Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy journal. These ideas were expressed in connection with the discussion of the future of macroeconomic models. The motivation for the discussion lies in the poor performance of macroeconomic models before the global economic crisis of 2007–2008 and in the subsequent period of recovery. The main issue considered by economists is the possible changes in the basic neo-Keynesian model and DSGE-models as
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Moiseev, S. "The Formalization of Macroeconomics and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 2 (February 20, 2007): 46–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2007-2-46-58.

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While early macroeconomists were engineers trying to solve practical problems, modern macroeconomists have focused on developing mathematic tools and establishing models. These analytic instruments, however, have been slow to find their way into practical applications. This paper reviews the influence of modern macroeconomics on realities of monetary policy. The author concludes that the effect of formalization of macroeconomic theory on central banking is close to zero.
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Xu, Lanxuan. "Macroeconomics Analysis on COVID-19 Based on Mathematical Models." Highlights in Science, Engineering and Technology 40 (March 29, 2023): 36–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/hset.v40i.6516.

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From the past century, humanity has never witnessed such a health crisis like the Covid-19 worldwide pandemic. Since it was declared a global health crisis in March 2020, country governments have put forth efforts to curb transmission of the disease and to manage the impacts on the economy. The forced measures have caused adverse and difficult to manage macroeconomic consequences. Many studies have been carried out in various regions and countries to explore these macroeconomic impacts. This paper offers a review of the research associated with the consequences of COVID-19 on macroeconomics. T
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Fair, Ray C. "Trade models and macroeconomics." Economic Modelling 94 (January 2021): 296–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.10.007.

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Wei, Qian, and Heng-Guo Zhang. "An Adaptive Evolutionary Causal Dynamic Factor Model." Mathematics 13, no. 11 (2025): 1891. https://doi.org/10.3390/math13111891.

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Background: With COVID-19 having a significant impact on economic activity, it has become difficult for the existing dynamic factor models (nowcasting models) to forecast macroeconomics with high accuracy. The real-time monitoring of macroeconomics has become an important research problem faced by banks, governments, and corporations. Subjects and Methods: This paper proposes an adaptive evolutionary causal dynamic factor model (AcNowcasting) for macroeconomic forecasting. Unlike the classical nowcasting models, the AcNowcasting algorithm has the ability to perform feature selection. The crite
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Saes, Beatriz Macchione, and Ademar Ribeiro Romeiro. "Ecological macroeconomics: a methodological review." Economia e Sociedade 28, no. 2 (2019): 365–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n2art04.

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Abstract The paper aims to analyse and provide an overview of the emerging ecological macroeconomic approach from a methodological point of view. As with ecological economics, this emerging approach is being constituted by a methodologically plural set of studies. We identify and classify three main macroeconomic strands developed from ecological economic concerns. Firstly, we present the conventional macroeconomic IS-LM model adapted to a sustainable scale of production. Secondly, we discuss a fundamentalist post-Keynesian view on ecological economics that criticises the use of models more he
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Praščević, Aleksandra. "Macroeconomics and political misuse: Interpreting economic policy." Revija Kopaonicke skole prirodnog prava 3, no. 2 (2021): 171–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/rkspp2102171p.

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The paper focuses the impact of political abuse of economic policy on macroeconomic results, as well as the macroeconomic models that investigate this impact. The paper also presents the development of modern macroeconomics, along with main changes in the way of creating economic policy. Two key political motives - opportunistic (to stay in power as long as possible) and partisan - to achieve ideological goals in the field of economics, are considered in the context of traditional models that assume naive voters and adaptive expectations, but also in the context of rational models that include
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Fisher, P. G., S. K. Tanna, D. S. Turner, K. F. Wallis, and J. D. Whitley. "Comparative Properties of Models of the Uk Economy." National Institute Economic Review 125 (August 1988): 69–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795018812500107.

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This paper describes the overall properties of six major macroeconomic models, through dynamic multiplier analysis of a number of standard simulation exercises. The models are those of the London Business School (LBS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), HM Treasury (HMT), the Bank of England (BE), the City University Business School (CUBS) and the Liverpool University Research Group in Macroeconomics (LPL), as deposited with the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau in late 1987. The simulations demonstrate the response of the models to changes in key policy instrume
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Bejenaru, Cristina-Elena, Adam Altăr-Samuel, Alexandra Cheptiș, and Alin-Ioan Vid. "Behavioral Macroeconomics—A Basis for Developing Sustainable Economic Policies." Sustainability 17, no. 4 (2025): 1552. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17041552.

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This paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that behavioral macroeconomic models better explain macroeconomic volatility in emerging economies compared to traditional rational expectations frameworks. We explore behavioral macroeconomics as a foundation for sustainable economic policies by comparing New Keynesian models under rational expectations and behavioral heuristics across multiple economies. The model parameters are estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for rational expectations and the Simulated Method of Moments (SMM) for the behavioral framework, eval
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Silvestre, Joao Alexandre Parreira. "Agent-Based models in macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20604.

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Doutoramento em Economia<br>A crise financeira de 2007/2008 desencadeou uma onda de críticas à teoria económica. Ataques baseados em quatro críticas principais: os economistas não terem previsto a maior crise desde a Grande Depressão; as autoridades deixarem formar bolhas sem controlo; o falhanço da supervisão bancária; e os modelos usados serem desfasados da realidade. No caso dos modelos, o alvo principal são os modelos DSGE (dinâmicos, estocásticos e de equilíbrio geral) e duas das suas hipóteses simplificadoras: o agente representativo e a racionalidade. As economias são realidades complex
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Dmitriev, Mikhail. "Essays in International Macroeconomics." Thesis, Boston College, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:103536.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi<br>Thesis advisor: Susanto Basu<br>My dissertation develops a set of tools for thinking about heterogeneity in economic models in an analytically tractable way. Many models use the representative agent framework, which greatly simplifies macroeconomic aggregation but abstracts from the heterogeneity we see in the real world. Models with heterogeneity in general equilibrium have too many moving parts, so that it is hard to disentangle cause and effect. First, my work in international macroeconomics incorporates heterogeneity via idiosyncratic shocks across countrie
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Steinbach, Max Rudibert. "Essays on dynamic macroeconomics." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86196.

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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the first essay of this thesis, a medium scale DSGE model is developed and estimated for the South African economy. When used for forecasting, the model is found to outperform private sector economists when forecasting CPI inflation, GDP growth and the policy rate over certain horizons. In the second essay, the benchmark DSGE model is extended to include the yield on South African 10-year government bonds. The model is then used to decompose the 10-year yield spread into (1) the structural shocks that contributed to it
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De, Antonio Liedo David. "Structural models for macroeconomics and forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210142.

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This Thesis is composed by three independent papers that investigate<p>central debates in empirical macroeconomic modeling.<p><p>Chapter 1, entitled “A Model for Real-Time Data Assessment with an Application to GDP Growth Rates”, provides a model for the data<p>revisions of macroeconomic variables that distinguishes between rational expectation updates and noise corrections. Thus, the model encompasses the two polar views regarding the publication process of statistical agencies: noise versus news. Most of the studies previous studies that analyze data revisions are based<p>on the classical no
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Silva, Thiago Cordeiro da. "Exploiting diversity in macroeconomic modeling : a comparative study between Agent-Based and DSGE macroeconomic models /." Araraquara, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/180819.

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Orientador: Mario Augusto Bertella<br>Banca: Alexandre Sartoris Neto<br>Banca: Roseli da Silva<br>Resumo: A modelagem macroeconômica tem estado sob intenso escrutínio desde a Crise Financeira de 2007-2008, quando graves deficiências foram expostas na metodologia DSGE. Embora muitas dessas críticas tenham sido injustas ou desinformadas, elas enfatizaram a necessidade de considerar formas alternativas de modelagem macroeconômica e aprimorar abordagens estabelecidas, a fim de torná-las mais úteis para a compreensão de um mundo em recessão. Nesse sentido, argumentamos que explorar a diversidade na
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Rua, Sandra Cristina Camacho Gomes. "Essays in macroeconomics with general equilibrium models." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7543.

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Doutoramento em Economia<br>Modelos de equilíbrio geral são largamente usados na academia e em instituições internacionais. Aqui, questões relacionadas com reformas estruturais, o limite inferior das taxas de juro e sua relação com opções de política são analisadas com um modelo de larga escala. Os principais resultados são: reformas estruturais unilaterais são benéficas e coordenação nacional tem vantagens; com as taxas de juro no limite inferior, políticas orçamentais e estruturais podem aliviar uma recessão e reduzir o tempo em que esse limite é activo. Mas a eficácia depende do instrumento
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Dallari, Pietro. "DSGEs and PVARs: applications to macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/146249.

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This thesis adopts DSGE and PVAR models to examine three questions in macroeconomics. The first chapter singles out some pitfalls that DSGE models face when a fraction of rule-of-thumb consumers is assumed in order to replicate the positive response of consumption to government spending shocks observed in SVAR models. The second chapter quantifies the importance of the tourism channel for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations to the Mediterranean basin. We show that, absent tourism flows, the output effects in a typical destination country would be one-fourth smaller. The thi
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Faustino, Rui Alexandre Rodrigues Veloso. "Essays in macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20576.

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Doutoramento em Economia<br>This thesis has as its object of study the way consumer preferences affect structure and market power, measured through the markups of the firms that compete in it. By modifying the way consumer preferences are defined, it is possible to generate endogenous markups that significantly alter the responses of macroeconomic variables generated by different shocks. The thesis consists of three essays, the first of which analyzes the dynamics of markups in durable and nondurable consumption over the economic cycle and their response to shocks. For this, I take a New Keyne
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Emiris, Marina. "Essays on macroeconomics and finance." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210764.

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Walker, Sébastien. "Essays in development macroeconomics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.712398.

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Books on the topic "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Giuseppe, Bertola, ed. Models for dynamic macroeconomics. Oxford University Press, 2004.

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Felderer, B. Macroeconomics and new macroeconomics. Springer-Verlag, 1987.

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Felderer, B. Macroeconomics and new macroeconomics. 2nd ed. Springer-Verlag, 1992.

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Heilemann, Ullrich. Understanding macroeconomic models: Structural sensitivity analysis of a medium-sized model. Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 1991.

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Benhabib, Jess. Homework in macroeconomics. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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B, Henry S. G., ed. Macroeconomic modelling. North-Holland, 1988.

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Lindström, Tomas. Studies in empirical macroeconomics. Dept. of Economics, Uppsala University, 1997.

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Jansson, Per. Essays on empirical macroeconomics. Dept. of Economics, Uppsala University, 1994.

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Hall, Stephen G. Macroeconomic modelling. North-Holland, 1988.

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Ravn, Morten O. The macroeconomics of subsistence points. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Book chapters on the topic "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Chirichiello, Giuseppe. "Macroeconomics of Aggregate Supply and New Classical Macroeconomics." In Macroeconomic Models and Controversies. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230371064_5.

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Chirichiello, Giuseppe. "Neoclassical Macroeconomics Reproposed." In Macroeconomic Models and Controversies. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230371064_4.

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Carlberg, Michael. "Simple Models of a Stationary Economy." In Intertemporal Macroeconomics. Physica-Verlag HD, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47023-3_3.

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Banerjee, Dibyendu, and Ramesh Chandra Das. "Interactions of fiscal and monetary policies in IS-LM models (Model V)." In Modern Macroeconomics. Routledge India, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003501138-13.

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Chirichiello, Giuseppe. "Macroeconomics of Rationing Equilibria." In Macroeconomic Models and Controversies. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230371064_6.

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MacDonald, Ronald. "Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models: Which does the Empirical Evidence Support?" In International Macroeconomics. Macmillan Education UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24295-5_11.

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Pikoulakis, Emmanuel. "The Asset Approach to the Exchange Rate: Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate." In International Macroeconomics. Macmillan Education UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24295-5_3.

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Chrystal, K. Alec. "Overshooting Models of the Exchange Rate." In Current Issues in Macroeconomics. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20286-7_10.

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Pikoulakis, Emmanuel. "The Asset Approach to the Exchange Rate: Portfolio Balance Models of the Exchange Rate and the Current Account." In International Macroeconomics. Macmillan Education UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24295-5_4.

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Wagner, Richard E. "Models of Social Order: Mechanical vs. Creative." In Macroeconomics as Systems Theory. Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44465-5_2.

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Conference papers on the topic "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Thi Ngoc, Lan Dong, Ngo-Thi-Thu-Trang, Kyoung-Mok Kim, Vung Pham, and Ha-Nam Nguyen. "Studying of Machine Learning Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators." In 2025 27th International Conference on Advanced Communications Technology (ICACT). IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.23919/icact63878.2025.10936731.

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Li, Nian, Chen Gao, Mingyu Li, Yong Li, and Qingmin Liao. "EconAgent: Large Language Model-Empowered Agents for Simulating Macroeconomic Activities." In Proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). Association for Computational Linguistics, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2024.acl-long.829.

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Shi, Zhengbin. "Construction and Application of Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Based on Time Series Clustering Analysis." In 2024 First International Conference on Software, Systems and Information Technology (SSITCON). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/ssitcon62437.2024.10796845.

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S, Suberiya Begum, N. Sabiyath Fatima, and Mohamed Abbas. "Enhancing Stock Market Prediction with an LSTM-Attention Model Integrating Macroeconomic and Sentiment Features." In 2024 International Conference on Innovative Computing, Intelligent Communication and Smart Electrical Systems (ICSES). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/icses63760.2024.10910478.

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Gisin, V. B., and E. S. Volkova. "Fuzzy linear regression in models of micro and macroeconomics." In 2015 XVIII International Conference on Soft Computing and Measurements (SCM). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/scm.2015.7190475.

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SUKHAREV, Oleg, and Vladimir CHAPLYGIN. "ECONOMIC POLICY OF GROWTH: SELECTION OF INSTITUTES AND TECHNOLOGICAL MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT." In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.006.

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Purpose – to study the possibilities of institutional theory to establish a modern theory of economic growth, including the factors of institutions and technologies changes. These factors are a set of rules with high coercive force to the agents’ action form a particular mode/model of their adaptation, together with other institutions. Research Methodology – the neoclassical models of economic growth, which may include institutional factors and to study their impact on the growth and change of the factors, into the business practice are applied. The key scientific problem is to choose the righ
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Bravo, Jorge, and Afshin Ashofteh. "Ensemble Methods for Consumer Price Inflation Forecasting." In 23ª Conferência da Associação Portuguesa de Sistemas de Informação. Associação Portuguesa de Sistemas de Informação, APSI, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18803/capsi.v23.317-336.

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Inflation forecasting is one of the central issues in micro and macroeconomics. Standard forecasting methods tend to follow a "winner-take-all" approach by which, for each time series, a single believed to be the best method is chosen from a pool of competing models. This paper investigates the predictive accuracy of a metalearning strategy called Arbitrated Dynamic Ensemble (ADE) in inflation forecasting using United States data. The findings show that: i) the SARIMA model exhibits the best average rank relative to ADE and competing state-of-the-art model combination and metalearning methods;
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Bivol, Dorina. "Metode de prognoza a indicatorilor macro-economici principali a Republicii Moldova." In Simpozion Ştiinţific al Tinerilor Cercetători, Ediţia a 21-a. Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.53486/sstc.v3.34.

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The forecast of macroeconomic indicators has a major impact on economic decision-making. To make a qualitative forecast, it is necessary to analyze the methods and tools used to forecast macroeconomic indicators, as well as to examine the factors that influence the accuracy of forecasts. There is a wide range of methods used to forecast macroeconomic indicators, including econometric methods. In this regard, two of the many models are presented: the ARIMA model and the SEM model.
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Liu, Xinghua, Yu Xia, and Hongsheng Xi. "Macroeconomic control in improved Metzler's model." In 2011 International Conference on Electronics, Communications and Control (ICECC). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icecc.2011.6066363.

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Nenov, Iliyan, Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva, Kaloyan Ganev, and George Mengov. "A Neural Model Forecasts Macroeconomic Indicators." In 2023 International Conference Automatics and Informatics (ICAI). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icai58806.2023.10339011.

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Reports on the topic "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Hansen, Gary, and Lee Ohanian. Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22122.

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Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, and Juan Rubio-Ramírez. Macroeconomics and Volatility: Data, Models, and Estimation. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16618.

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Kohler, Karsten. Teaching macroeconomics with an open-source online model simulation in R and Python. The Economics Network, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.53593/n3917a.

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Taylor, John. The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22356.

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Dafermos, Yannis, Andrew McConnel, Maria Nikolaidi, Servaas Storm, and Boyan Yanovski. Macroeconomic modelling in the Anthropocene: why the E-DSGE framework is not fit for purpose and what to do about it. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp229.

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Recent years have seen an increasing use of environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) models for analysing the macroeconomic effects of the climate crisis. This paper explores to what extent these models are fit for purpose. We identify the limitations of the benchmark E-DSGE framework and explain how these limitations restrict the ability of this framework to meaningfully capture the macroeconomics of the climate crisis. We then explain how the assumptions behind these limitations can be relaxed, but argue that simply relaxing some of these assumptions in isolation is insu
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Pompeu, Gustavo, and José Luiz Rossi. Real/Dollar Exchange Rate Prediction Combining Machine Learning and Fundamental Models. Inter-American Development Bank, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004491.

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The study of the predictability of exchange rates has been a very recurring theme on the economics literature for decades, and very often is not possible to beat a random walk prediction, particularly when trying to forecast short time periods. Although there are several studies about exchange rate forecasting in general, predictions of specifically Brazilian real (BRL) to United States dollar (USD) exchange rates are very hard to find in the literature. The objective of this work is to predict the specific BRL to USD exchange rates by applying machine learning models combined with fundamental
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Cabrera-Rodríguez, Wilmar Alexander, Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa, and Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto. A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia. Banco de la República, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1255.

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This document presents a Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) of the zero-coupon public debt curve issued locally by the Colombian Government, adopting the methodological approach of Hamilton and Wu (2012) to solve the problems of identification and instability in the estimation of this family of models. Two empirical exercises are presented to highlight the relevance of this methodological approach. The first combines the GATSM structure with a Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach to forecast the yield curve given a set of macroeconomic variables, thus offering a
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Storm, Servaas. Tilting at Windmills: Bernanke and Blanchard’s Obsession with the Wage-Price Spiral. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp220.

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Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) use a simple dynamic New Keynesian model of wage-price determination to explain the sharp acceleration in U.S. inflation during 2021-2023. They claim their model closely tracks the pandemic-era inflation and they confidently conclude that “… we don’t think that the recent experience justifies throwing out existing models of wage-price dynamics.” This paper argues that this confidence is misplaced. The Bernanke and Blanchard is another failed attempt to salvage establishment macroeconomics after the massive onslaught of adverse inflationary circumstances with which
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9

Lunsford, Kurt G., and Kenneth D. West. An Empirical Evaluation of Some Long-Horizon Macroeconomic Forecasts. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202420.

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We use long-run annual cross-country data for 10 macroeconomic variables to evaluate the long-horizon forecast distributions of six forecasting models. The variables we use range from ones having little serial correlation to ones having persistence consistent with unit roots. Our forecasting models include simple time series models and frequency domain models developed in Müller and Watson (2016). For plausibly stationary variables, an AR(1) model and a frequency domain model that does not require the user to take a stand on the order of integration appear reasonably well calibrated for foreca
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10

De Castro-Valderrama, Marcela, Santiago Forero-Alvarado, Nicolás Moreno-Arias, and Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga. Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts' Macroeconomic Forecasts. Banco de la República, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1184.

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Modern macroeconomics focuses on the identification of the primitive exogenous forces generating business cycles. This is at odds with macroeconomic forecasts collected through surveys, which are about endogenous variables. To address this divorce, our paper uses a general equilibrium model as a multivariate filter to infer the shocks behind market analysts' forecasts and thus, unravel their implicit macroeconomic stories. By interpreting all analysts' forecasts through the same lenses, it is possible to understand the differences between projected endogenous variables as differences in the ty
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