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Journal articles on the topic 'Metapopulation; Epidemics'

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1

Dearlove, Bethany, and Daniel J. Wilson. "Coalescent inference for infectious disease: meta-analysis of hepatitis C." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368, no. 1614 (2013): 20120314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0314.

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Genetic analysis of pathogen genomes is a powerful approach to investigating the population dynamics and epidemic history of infectious diseases. However, the theoretical underpinnings of the most widely used, coalescent methods have been questioned, casting doubt on their interpretation. The aim of this study is to develop robust population genetic inference for compartmental models in epidemiology. Using a general approach based on the theory of metapopulations, we derive coalescent models under susceptible–infectious (SI), susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) and susceptible–infectious–
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2

Lloyd, Alun L., and Vincent A. A. Jansen. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of epidemics: synchrony in metapopulation models." Mathematical Biosciences 188, no. 1-2 (2004): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2003.09.003.

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Watts, D. J., R. Muhamad, D. C. Medina, and P. S. Dodds. "Multiscale, resurgent epidemics in a hierarchical metapopulation model." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, no. 32 (2005): 11157–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0501226102.

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4

Wang, Jian-Bo, and Xiang Li. "Uncovering Spatial Invasion on Metapopulation Networks with SIR Epidemics." IEEE Transactions on Network Science and Engineering 6, no. 4 (2019): 788–800. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tnse.2018.2873609.

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5

Ball, Frank, Tom Britton, Thomas House, et al. "Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models." Epidemics 10 (March 2015): 63–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2014.08.001.

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6

Nagatani, Takashi, Genki Ichinose, and Kei-ichi Tainaka. "Epidemics of random walkers in metapopulation model for complete, cycle, and star graphs." Journal of Theoretical Biology 450 (August 2018): 66–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.029.

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7

Wiratsudakul, Anuwat, Parinya Suparit, and Charin Modchang. "Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches." PeerJ 6 (March 22, 2018): e4526. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4526.

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BackgroundThe Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics.Survey MethodologyIn this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical m
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Li, Zhengyan, Huichun Li, Xue Zhang, and Chengli Zhao. "Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease." Healthcare 9, no. 9 (2021): 1224. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare9091224.

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Human mobility data are indispensable in modeling large-scale epidemics, especially in predicting the spatial spread of diseases and in evaluating spatial heterogeneity intervention strategies. However, statistical data that can accurately describe large-scale population migration are often difficult to obtain. We propose an algorithm model based on the network science approach, which estimates the travel flow data in mainland China by transforming location big data and airline operation data into network structure information. In addition, we established a simplified deterministic SEIR (Susce
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Wu, Charles, Catherine Wu, and Kun Chan Wu. "Response to the Coronavirus Disease-2019 Pandemic: Lessons Learned from the Taiwan Model." Asian Social Science 16, no. 10 (2020): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ass.v16n10p16.

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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), or coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and has since then spurred a global pandemic (Lai et al., 2020). Taiwan and China, separated only by 130 km across the Taiwan Strait, have frequent cross-strait interactions with each other; millions of people travel to and from between the two countries (Wang & Lin, 2020). Considering these facts, Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins University, even predicted that Taiwan will have the second highest number of COVID-19 ca
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10

Lieberthal, Brandon, and Allison M. Gardner. "Connectivity, reproduction number, and mobility interact to determine communities’ epidemiological superspreader potential in a metapopulation network." PLOS Computational Biology 17, no. 3 (2021): e1008674. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008674.

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Disease epidemic outbreaks on human metapopulation networks are often driven by a small number of superspreader nodes, which are primarily responsible for spreading the disease throughout the network. Superspreader nodes typically are characterized either by their locations within the network, by their degree of connectivity and centrality, or by their habitat suitability for the disease, described by their reproduction number (R). Here we introduce a model that considers simultaneously the effects of network properties and R on superspreaders, as opposed to previous research which considered
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11

Laine, Anna-Liisa, Jeremy J. Burdon, Adnane Nemri, and Peter H. Thrall. "Host ecotype generates evolutionary and epidemiological divergence across a pathogen metapopulation." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1787 (2014): 20140522. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0522.

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The extent and speed at which pathogens adapt to host resistance varies considerably. This presents a challenge for predicting when—and where—pathogen evolution may occur. While gene flow and spatially heterogeneous environments are recognized to be critical for the evolutionary potential of pathogen populations, we lack an understanding of how the two jointly shape coevolutionary trajectories between hosts and pathogens. The rust pathogen Melampsora lini infects two ecotypes of its host plant Linum marginale that occur in close proximity yet in distinct populations and habitats. In this study
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12

Citron, Daniel T., Carlos A. Guerra, Andrew J. Dolgert, et al. "Comparing metapopulation dynamics of infectious diseases under different models of human movement." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 18 (2021): e2007488118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007488118.

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Newly available datasets present exciting opportunities to investigate how human population movement contributes to the spread of infectious diseases across large geographical distances. It is now possible to construct realistic models of infectious disease dynamics for the purposes of understanding global-scale epidemics. Nevertheless, a remaining unanswered question is how best to leverage the new data to parameterize models of movement, and whether one’s choice of movement model impacts modeled disease outcomes. We adapt three well-studied models of infectious disease dynamics, the suscepti
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13

Azman, Andrew S., and Justin Lessler. "Reactive vaccination in the presence of disease hotspots." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282, no. 1798 (2015): 20141341. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.1341.

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Reactive vaccination has recently been adopted as an outbreak response tool for cholera and other infectious diseases. Owing to the global shortage of oral cholera vaccine, health officials must quickly decide who and where to distribute limited vaccine. Targeted vaccination in transmission hotspots (i.e. areas with high transmission efficiency) may be a potential approach to efficiently allocate vaccine, however its effectiveness will likely be context-dependent. We compared strategies for allocating vaccine across multiple areas with heterogeneous transmission efficiency. We constructed meta
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14

Débarre, Florence, Sebastian Bonhoeffer, and Roland R. Regoes. "The effect of population structure on the emergence of drug resistance during influenza pandemics." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 4, no. 16 (2007): 893–906. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1126.

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The spread of H5N1 avian influenza and the recent high numbers of confirmed human cases have raised international concern about the possibility of a new pandemic. Therefore, antiviral drugs are now being stockpiled to be used as a first line of defence. The large-scale use of antivirals will however exert a strong selection pressure on the virus, and may lead to the emergence of drug-resistant strains. A few mathematical models have been developed to assess the emergence of drug resistance during influenza pandemics. These models, however, neglected the spatial structure of large populations a
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15

Komarova, Natalia L., Luis M. Schang, and Dominik Wodarz. "Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 17, no. 170 (2020): 20200518. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0518.

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We have analysed the COVID-19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between 22 January and 28 March 2020. We found that some countries (such as the USA, the UK and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. Regardless of the best fitting law, many countries can be shown to follow a common trajectory that is similar to Italy (the epicentre at the time of analysis), but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with ‘younger’ epidemics, i.e. countries w
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Haccou, Patsy, and Maria Conceição Serra. "Establishment versus population growth in spatio-temporally varying environments." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 288, no. 1942 (2021): 20202009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.2009.

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We consider situations where repeated invasion attempts occur from a source population into a receptor population over extended periods of time. The receptor population contains two locations that provide different expected offspring numbers to invaders. There is demographic stochasticity in offspring numbers. In addition, temporal variation causes local invader fitnesses to vary. We show that effects of environmental autocorrelation on establishment success depend on spatial covariance of the receptor subpopulations. In situations with a low spatial covariance this effect is positive, whereas
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17

Getz, Wayne M., Richard Salter, and Whitney Mgbara. "Adequacy of SEIR models when epidemics have spatial structure: Ebola in Sierra Leone." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 374, no. 1775 (2019): 20180282. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0282.

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Dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) compartmental models provide a tool for predicting the size and duration of both unfettered and managed outbreaks—the latter in the context of interventions such as case detection, patient isolation, vaccination and treatment. The reliability of this tool depends on the validity of key assumptions that include homogeneity of individuals and spatio-temporal homogeneity. Although the SEIR compartmental framework can easily be extended to include demographic (e.g. age) and additional disease (e.g. healthcare workers) classes, dependence of
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18

Rowthorn, Robert E., Ramanan Laxminarayan, and Christopher A. Gilligan. "Optimal control of epidemics in metapopulations." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 6, no. 41 (2009): 1135–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2008.0402.

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Little is known about how best to deploy scarce resources for disease control when epidemics occur in different but interconnected regions. We use a combination of optimal control methods and epidemiological theory for metapopulations to address this problem. We consider what strategy should be used if the objective is to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show, for a system with two interconnected regions and an epidemic in which infected individuals recover and can be reinfected, that equalizing infection in the two regions is the wors
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19

Stone, Chris M., Samantha R. Schwab, Dina M. Fonseca, and Nina H. Fefferman. "Human movement, cooperation and the effectiveness of coordinated vector control strategies." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 14, no. 133 (2017): 20170336. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2017.0336.

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Vector-borne disease transmission is often typified by highly focal transmission and influenced by movement of hosts and vectors across different scales. The ecological and environmental conditions (including those created by humans through vector control programmes) that result in metapopulation dynamics remain poorly understood. The development of control strategies that would most effectively limit outbreaks given such dynamics is particularly urgent given the recent epidemics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses. We developed a stochastic, spatial model of vector-borne disease transmiss
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20

Metcalf, C. J. E., C. V. Munayco, G. Chowell, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjørnstad. "Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 8, no. 56 (2010): 369–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2010.0320.

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Rubella is generally a mild childhood disease, but infection during early pregnancy may cause spontaneous abortion or congenital rubella syndrome (CRS), which may entail a variety of birth defects. Consequently, understanding the age-structured dynamics of this infection has considerable public health value. Vaccination short of the threshold for local elimination of transmission will increase the average age of infection. Accordingly, the classic concern for this infection is the potential for vaccination to increase incidence in individuals of childbearing age. A neglected aspect of rubella
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21

Han, Dun, Qi Shao, and Dandan Li. "Exploring the Epidemic Spreading in a Multilayer Metapopulation Network by considering Individuals’ Periodic Travelling." Complexity 2020 (April 21, 2020): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6782018.

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The convenience of transportation brings the diversity of individuals’ travelling modes; in this paper, we present an improved epidemic diffusion model in a multilayer metapopulation network. Firstly, we construct the metapopulation network with different travelling ways, and then, the epidemic spreading threshold is calculated by means of the mean-field method. Taking the periodicity of individuals’ travelling into account, we further explore the epidemic diffusion model with individuals’ periodic travelling and deduce the epidemic spreading threshold using the Perron–Frobenius theorem. Our r
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22

Calvetti, Daniela, Alexander P. Hoover, Johnie Rose, and Erkki Somersalo. "Modeling Epidemic Spread among a Commuting Population Using Transport Schemes." Mathematics 9, no. 16 (2021): 1861. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9161861.

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Understanding the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 between connected communities is fundamental in planning appropriate mitigation measures. To that end, we propose and analyze a novel metapopulation network model, particularly suitable for modeling commuter traffic patterns, that takes into account the connectivity between a heterogeneous set of communities, each with its own infection dynamics. In the novel metapopulation model that we propose here, transport schemes developed in optimal transport theory provide an efficient and easily implementable way of describing the temporary populati
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23

Duncan, Alison B., Andrew Gonzalez, and Oliver Kaltz. "Stochastic environmental fluctuations drive epidemiology in experimental host–parasite metapopulations." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 280, no. 1769 (2013): 20131747. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1747.

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Environmental fluctuations are important for parasite spread and persistence. However, the effects of the spatial and temporal structure of environmental fluctuations on host–parasite dynamics are not well understood. Temporal fluctuations can be random but positively autocorrelated, such that the environment is similar to the recent past (red noise), or random and uncorrelated with the past (white noise). We imposed red or white temporal temperature fluctuations on experimental metapopulations of Paramecium caudatum , experiencing an epidemic of the bacterial parasite Holospora undulata . Met
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24

Wang, Yi, and Zhen Jin. "Epidemic Threshold for Metapopulation Networks with Demographical Dynamics." Advanced Materials Research 268-270 (July 2011): 2097–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.268-270.2097.

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In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of an epidemic model with birth anddeath and reaction-di usion processes in heterogeneous metapopulation networks. By mean- eld analysis, we obtain the conditions that the disease will outbreak on networks for somespeci c cases. This reminds us both the structure of the networks and population demographyplay an important role on the spread of infectious disease.
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Zhu, Xuzhen, Yuxin Liu, Shengfeng Wang, Ruijie Wang, Xiaolong Chen, and Wei Wang. "Allocating resources for epidemic spreading on metapopulation networks." Applied Mathematics and Computation 411 (December 2021): 126531. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126531.

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26

Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L., and Christopher A. Gilligan. "Resource Allocation for Epidemic Control in Metapopulations." PLoS ONE 6, no. 9 (2011): e24577. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0024577.

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27

Caudron, Q., A. S. Mahmud, C. J. E. Metcalf, et al. "Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 12, no. 102 (2015): 20141125. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2014.1125.

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A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for
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28

Liu, Maoxing, Jie Zhang, Zhengguang Li, and Yongzheng Sun. "Modeling epidemic in metapopulation networks with heterogeneous diffusion rates." Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering 16, no. 6 (2019): 7085–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2019355.

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29

Bolzoni, Luca, Rossella Della Marca, Maria Groppi, and Alessandra Gragnani. "Dynamics of a metapopulation epidemic model with localized culling." Discrete & Continuous Dynamical Systems - B 25, no. 6 (2020): 2307–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2020036.

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30

IGGIDR, ABDERRAHMAN, GAUTHIER SALLET, and BERGE TSANOU. "Global Stability Analysis of a Metapopulation SIS Epidemic Model." Mathematical Population Studies 19, no. 3 (2012): 115–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/08898480.2012.693844.

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31

Wang, Jianrong, Maoxing Liu, and Youwen Li. "Analysis of epidemic models with demographics in metapopulation networks." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 392, no. 7 (2013): 1621–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2012.12.007.

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32

Gong, Yong-Wang, Yu-Rong Song, and Guo-Ping Jiang. "Time-varying human mobility patterns with metapopulation epidemic dynamics." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 392, no. 19 (2013): 4242–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.028.

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33

Gong, Yong-Wang, Yu-Rong Song, and Guo-Ping Jiang. "Epidemic spreading in metapopulation networks with heterogeneous infection rates." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 416 (December 2014): 208–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2014.08.056.

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34

Apolloni, Andrea, Chiara Poletto, José J. Ramasco, Pablo Jensen, and Vittoria Colizza. "Metapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour." Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling 11, no. 1 (2014): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1742-4682-11-3.

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35

Gong, Yongwang, and Michael Small. "Epidemic spreading on metapopulation networks including migration and demographics." Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 28, no. 8 (2018): 083102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5021167.

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36

Shao, Qi, and Dun Han. "Epidemic spreading in metapopulation networks with heterogeneous mobility rates." Applied Mathematics and Computation 412 (January 2022): 126559. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126559.

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37

Doungmo Goufo, Emile Franc, Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie, and Stella Mugisha. "A Fractional SEIR Epidemic Model for Spatial and Temporal Spread of Measles in Metapopulations." Abstract and Applied Analysis 2014 (2014): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/781028.

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Measles is a higher contagious disease that can spread in a community population depending on the number of people (children) susceptible or infected and also depending on their movement in the community. In this paper we present a fractional SEIR metapopulation system modeling the spread of measles. We restrict ourselves to the dynamics between four distinct cities (patches). We prove that the fractional metapopulation model is well posed (nonnegative solutions) and we provide the condition for the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Numerical simulations show that infection will be pr
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38

Wang, Jian-Bo, Lang Cao, and Xiang Li. "On Estimating Spatial Epidemic Parameters of a Simplified Metapopulation Model." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 46, no. 13 (2013): 383–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.3182/20130708-3-cn-2036.00047.

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Wang, Bing, Yuexing Han, and Gouhei Tanaka. "Interplay between epidemic spread and information propagation on metapopulation networks." Journal of Theoretical Biology 420 (May 2017): 18–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.02.020.

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Gong, Yongwang, and Michael Small. "Modelling the effect of heterogeneous vaccination on metapopulation epidemic dynamics." Physics Letters A 383, no. 35 (2019): 125996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2019.125996.

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41

Desalegn, Petros Kelkile, Samuel Mwalili, and John Mango. "Stability Analysis of a Deterministic Epidemic Model in Metapopulation Setting." Advances in Pure Mathematics 08, no. 03 (2018): 219–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/apm.2018.83011.

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42

Huang, Wei, and Shengyong Chen. "Epidemic metapopulation model with traffic routing in scale-free networks." Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2011, no. 12 (2011): P12004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2011/12/p12004.

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43

Masuda, Naoki. "Effects of diffusion rates on epidemic spreads in metapopulation networks." New Journal of Physics 12, no. 9 (2010): 093009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/12/9/093009.

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44

Vespignani, A. "Reaction-diffusion processes and epidemic metapopulation models in complex networks." European Physical Journal B 64, no. 3-4 (2008): 349–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2008-00302-y.

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PATANARAPEELERT, KLOT. "INVESTIGATING THE ROLE OF WITHIN- AND BETWEEN-PATCH MOVEMENT IN A DYNAMIC MODEL OF DISEASE SPREAD." Journal of Biological Systems 28, no. 04 (2020): 815–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218339020500187.

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The impact of human mobility on the spreading of disease in a metapopulation is emphasized on interconnecting between patches, whereas the current volume of movement within the local population is usually neglected. Here, the role of internal commuters is taken into account by two means, a local transmission rate and the volume of internal commuters. Dynamic model of human mobility in the metapopulation with gravity coupling is presented. In conjunction with the disease spreading, the impact on invasion threshold and epidemic final size are analyzed. For two-patch model, we show that under fix
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46

Krause, Andrew L., Lawrence Kurowski, Kamran Yawar, and Robert A. Van Gorder. "Stochastic epidemic metapopulation models on networks: SIS dynamics and control strategies." Journal of Theoretical Biology 449 (July 2018): 35–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.023.

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Qian, Rongrong, and Yuan Qi. "Analysis for hidden-geometry phenomenon of epidemic spreading in metapopulation networks." International Journal of Automation and Logistics 2, no. 3 (2016): 234. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijal.2016.078493.

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48

Bjørnstad, Ottar N., and Bryan T. Grenfell. "Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations." Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15, no. 3 (2007): 265–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10651-007-0059-3.

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Li, Lingbo, Ying Fan, An Zeng, and Zengru Di. "Understanding the Anticontagion Process and Reopening of China during COVID-19 via Coevolution Network of Epidemic and Awareness." Complexity 2021 (May 11, 2021): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6623427.

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The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is intensifying all over the world, but some countries, including China, have developed extensive and successful experience in controlling this pandemic. In this context, some questions arise naturally: What can countries caught up in the epidemic learn from China’s experience? In regions where the outbreak is under control, what would lead to a resurgence of the epidemic? To address these issues, we investigate China’s experience in anticontagion interventions and reopening process, focusing on the coevolution of epidemic and awareness during COVID-19
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Nagatani, Takashi, Genki Ichinose, and Kei-ichi Tainaka. "Epidemic spreading of random walkers in metapopulation model on an alternating graph." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 520 (April 2019): 350–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.01.033.

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