Academic literature on the topic 'Migratory Trajectory'

An ageing population in Europe is currently putting pressure on long-term care services, creating demand for foreign workers. Using a life-course perspective, this article aims to contribute to the understanding of how life trajectories shape decisions about migration and employment in social care. Based on fifty-one life story interviews with migrant care workers in Norway and UK, two typologies are found: a Norwegian migrant life trajectory of downwards social mobility combined with settlement and a British trajectory combining stronger downwards social mobility with further migration. The article contributes to the discussion of contextualised migratory lives involving care work.

ABSTRACTSince its discovery 150 years ago, the neural crest has intrigued investigators owing to its remarkable developmental potential and extensive migratory ability. Cell lineage analysis has been an essential tool for exploring neural crest cell fate and migration routes. By marking progenitor cells, one can observe their subsequent locations and the cell types into which they differentiate. Here, we review major discoveries in neural crest lineage tracing from a historical perspective. We discuss how advancing technologies have refined lineage-tracing studies, and how clonal analysis can be applied to questions regarding multipotency. We also highlight how effective progenitor cell tracing, when combined with recently developed molecular and imaging tools, such as single-cell transcriptomics, single-molecule fluorescence in situ hybridization and high-resolution imaging, can extend the scope of neural crest lineage studies beyond development to regeneration and cancer initiation.

Many methods for trajectory simulation, such as Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT), have been developed over the past several decades and contributed greatly to our knowledge in insect migratory movement. To improve the accuracy of trajectory simulation, we developed a new numerical trajectory model, in which the self-powered flight behaviors of insects are considered and trajectory calculation is driven by high spatio-temporal resolution weather conditions simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, a rigorous evaluation of the accuracy of different trajectory models on simulated long-distance migration is lacking. Hence, in this study our trajectory model was evaluated by a migration event of the corn earworm moth, Helicoverpa zea, in Texas, USA on 20–22 March 1995. The results indicate that the simulated migration trajectories are in good agreement with occurrences of all pollen-marked male H. zea immigrants monitored in pheromone traps. Statistical comparisons in the present study suggest that our model performed better than the popularly-used HYSPLIT model in simulating migration trajectories of H. zea. This study also shows the importance of high-resolution atmospheric data and a full understanding of migration behaviors to the computational design of models that simulate migration trajectories of highly-flying insects.

AbstractIdentification and characterization of seasonal migration routes and stopover sites has been recognized as important to the conservation of migratory species. This project utilizes multiple regression models including circular-linear regression to identify associations between route choice, travel speed, and environmental preferences using trajectory data of migratory Arctic Terns (Sterna paradisaea) and environmental data obtained through remote-sensing techniques. Results of this study suggest that route choice on the southward post-breeding migration route may be more dependent on underlying environment than the northward postwintering migration route. In contrast, travel speed was variably associated with underlying environment between southward and northward migrations, including several differences regarding the impact of interactions between environmental variables. These results reveal the importance of using multiple metrics in the estimation of spatial resistance and highlight conflicts between the theoretical resistance framework of GIS and movement analysis methods.

AbstractThe growing literature on religion and migration offers a wide range of terminologies in order to describe different aspects of the migratory trajectory. The article analyses how the three terms “transnational”, “transcultural”, and “translocal” are applied by different scholars in order to describe how religion influences and frames the experiences of those who leave their homes behind. It is further argued that discourse analysis can be a helpful methodological and analytical approach towards the field under study in order to engage with the rich variety of sources which might help us develop a yet more finely tuned analysis of the new religious communities. With the object of exemplifying how discourse analysis can be applied in future studies, the article gives examples from three different contexts where religious practices face change due to the migratory situation. The first example proposes studies of the “simultaneity aspect” in transnational studies among Nigerian migrants in Europe. The second example highlights how translocal aspects influence the study of ethnicity among migrants to cities in northern Cameroon, and the third example focuses on transcultural aspects of historical conversion narratives.

El documento refiere a la trayectoria de la evolución reciente de los destinos migratorios de la población chiapaneca, llegando a explicar los motivos de su inserción tardía al flujo hacia Estados Unidos de Norteamérica. En torno a este flujo se ofrece una caracterización sociodemográfica en términos de sus puntos de cruce, lugares de origen y de destinos, situación educativa, parentesco y sexo de la población migrante. Finalmente, el documento contribuye a esclarecer las condiciones sociales de los municipios de origen, estableciendo la asociación entre los índices de marginación, de desarrollo humano y el de intensidad migratoria, revelado éste en las categorías de municipios de alta, mediana y baja intensidad. En gran medida el documento acude a la base de información proveniente del Instituto de los Mexicanos en el Exterior, cuya exploración resulta ser una de las primeras en el tema.
 
 INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION FROM CHIAPAS: TRAJECTORIES OF MOBILITY, AND SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL CONDITIONSABSTRACTThe document refers to the recent evolutionary trajectory of migratory destinations of the Chiapanecan population. It explains why immigrants from Chiapas inserted themselves into the immigration flow to the United States of America later than other populations. If offers a socio-demographic characterization of this migration flow in terms of crossing points, places of origin and destination, educational situation, kinship and sex of the migrant population. Finally, the document helps clarify the social conditions of the expelling municipalities, establishing an association between marginalization indexes, human development and migratory intensity in high, medium and low intensity municipalities. The document mostly resorts to the database made by the Institute for Mexicans Abroad, which is one of first themes that the article explores.

Focusing on student migration from Bulgaria to Germany, this article examines what types of social capital are accumulated, transformed and implemented through migration, who profits from the investment, and how. The empirical work consists of 60 narrative biographical interviews with migrants and returnees to Bulgaria. The research reveals that the accumulation and investment of social capital takes place throughout the migratory trajectory—starting well before leaving—and is embedded in a transnational social space. Transnational networks exist as family, peer and professional networks, and all of them have a specific meaning for the migrants. Family networks are naturally present; they provide bonding social capital and thus have a stabilizing function for the individual’s identity. Professional networks have a strongly bridging function, helping the young migrants to manage status transitions. After return the transnational social capital acquired during the migratory stay helps returnees to re-integrate and find their way into the Bulgarian labour market. It also encourages them to pursue activities which are meaningful for civil society development, or for innovative (social) entrepreneurship. Thus, transnational social capital helps migrants to align their biographical development to the future, considering the post-transformative environment of Bulgaria, thereby helping to manage transformative changes and supporting societal modernization processes.

Throughout biology, cells and organisms use flagella and cilia to propel fluid and achieve motility. The beating of these organelles, and the corresponding ability to sense, respond to and modulate this beat is central to many processes in health and disease. While the mechanics of flagellum–fluid interaction has been the subject of extensive mathematical studies, these models have been restricted to being geometrically linear or weakly nonlinear, despite the high curvatures observed physiologically. We study the effect of geometrical nonlinearity, focusing on the spermatozoon flagellum. For a wide range of physiologically relevant parameters, the nonlinear model predicts that flagellar compression by the internal forces initiates an effective buckling behaviour, leading to a symmetry-breaking bifurcation that causes profound and complicated changes in the waveform and swimming trajectory, as well as the breakdown of the linear theory. The emergent waveform also induces curved swimming in an otherwise symmetric system, with the swimming trajectory being sensitive to head shape—no signalling or asymmetric forces are required. We conclude that nonlinear models are essential in understanding the flagellar waveform in migratory human sperm; these models will also be invaluable in understanding motile flagella and cilia in other systems.

<p>This study investigates ways in which migratory trajectories relate to the gradual insertion and eventual integration of immigrants. It therefore shows the contribution of social capital in the migration and insertion into the entrepreneurial city of the host country. The focus of the study is on immigrants of African origin. It is hypothesized that immigrants of different nationalities in South Africa use&nbsp<br>particular assets to engage in street vending as a way of insertion into their new environment. Data were obtained through a survey of two hundred and eight (208) respondents conveniently&nbsp<br>selected. The survey was carried out in five suburbs of Cape Town and as well as at some major road junctions where these vendors are found. The Statistical package for Social Science (SPSS) was used to analyse the data. The results showed that nationality was an important determinant of the migratory trajectories of immigrant vendors. Migration has been on the increase with the&nbsp<br>improvement in technology and globalization. In the same light, migration into South African cities mainly from the rest of Africa and Asia took an upward trend especially after the fall of Apartheid&nbsp<br>Regime and the advent of democracy in the nineties. Street vendors form part of these immigrants in South Africa. Many of them especially from other African countries find it a suitable means of&nbsp<br>survival. Faced with the difficulty of getting jobs in South Africa, immigrants resort to informal trading as a starting point for survival. They may change to other activities depending on certain variables like duration of stay, level of education, age, sex, marital status, social capital and networks. Coming from different socioeconomic, cultural and political backgrounds, these immigrants&nbsp<br>resort to different ways of migrating and forms of adaptation aimed at sustaining their livelihood in their new environments. Most studies in the field of migration and entrepreneurship focus on&nbsp<br>remittances by the migrants as well as their impact on both their place of departure and on the place of destination. Little attention is paid to the way they migrate and how they insert themselves in the entrepreneurial city.<br /> &nbsp<br></p>

Cette recherche vise à mettre en évidence les transformations des processus identitaires intervenant chez des médecins diplômés à l’étranger et exerçant en France et au Brésil. Nous avons appuyé notre travail sur une approche dynamique et adaptative de l’identité personnelle, en particulier à travers l’identité dialogique et l’identité narrative. De plus, dans la mesure où ce travail fait intervenir de manière importante le contexte professionnel, il nous semblait pertinent de faire intervenir aussi la question de l’identité professionnelle et de ses liens avec la reconnaissance. Enfin, l’interculturalité étant centrale dans cette problématique, nous avons choisi de l’aborder sous l’angle de l’identité interculturelle et de l’interculturation. L’objectif de cette recherche est de caractériser les processus identitaires présents chez médecins diplômés à l’étranger, confrontés à une situation de diversité culturelle dont la gestion a des rapports importants avec leurs processus identitaires personnels et professionnels. En particulier, nous cherchons à comprendre les processus psychiques permettant au sujet de donner sens à son expérience migratoire afin de se l’approprier et d’engager une transformation de son identité. Nous travaillerons également sur les obstacles rencontrés par les sujets et à établir la place de la reconnaissance au sein de ces différents processus. Enfin, l’analyse des données contribue à démontrer les processus d’influence mutuelle intervenant entre l’appartenance culturelle et le contexte d’activité professionnelle. Quatre méthodes de construction et d’analyse des données ont été combinées afin de répondre à ce questionnement. Dans un premier temps, nous avons réalisé un questionnaire visant à caractériser notre population et à recenser les facteurs déclencheurs d’une migration. Ensuite, nous avons conduit des entretiens de type biographique afin d’amener le sujet à « se raconter », à mettre en récit sa trajectoire personnelle, en rapport avec des aspects identitaires. Puis, en fin d’entretien, nous avons proposé aux sujets de visionner un ensemble d’extraits vidéo issus d’un documentaire et de deux reportages afin de les confronter à plusieurs points de vue et situations en vue de faire émerger une réflexion sur leur vécu. Enfin, nous avons effectué une analyse documentaire d’un ensemble d’articles de presse. 89 médecins ont répondu au questionnaire, 43 en France et 46 au Brésil. Huit récits de vie ont été menés en France avec des sujets âgés de 36 à 71 ans, trois femmes et cinq hommes parmi lesquels deux avaient obtenu leur diplôme dans un pays de l’UE et six hors de l’UE. Nous avons également analysé un corpus de 25 articles de presse et trois reportages télévisés. L’influence de la reconnaissance du diplôme sur la trajectoire et les processus identitaires de ces sujets ainsi que l’importance de la langue, du genre et du projet migratoire sur ces processus ont été clarifiés par l’analyse de l’ensemble des données. L’analyse des trajectoires personnelles, professionnelles et migratoires des sujets qui ont participé à cette recherche présente l’impact d’un ensemble de facteurs culturels, sociaux et institutionnels sur des événements biographiques — individuels. Ces deux dimensions — l’individuel et le culturel - se trouvent en constant dialogue et en constante co-évolution pour rendre chaque trajectoire unique et semblable, processus centrale à la formation de l’identité de chaque individu<br>This research aims at investigating the changes that occur within the identity processes of physicians with a foreign diploma working in France and Brazil. Our work is based on a dynamic and adaptive approach of personal identity, specifically through the concept of dialogical self but also through the narrative identity approach. Since we also focus importantly on what happens in the professional environment, we also used theories related to professional identity and its relations with recognition. Finally, since the intercultural question is central in this research, we have chosen to include the intercultural identity theory and the concept of interculturation. This research aims at identifying and understanding the identity processes presented by medical doctors confronted to a changing cultural and professional context. We specifically intend to understand the psychological processes which allow the subject to give a meaning to his experience and make it his to start a transformation of his identity. We also focus on the obstacles the subject has to deal with, in particular regarding recognition. Finally, we intend to show the processes of mutual influence occurring between cultural belonging and professional context. We have crossed four methods to build and analyze our data. At first, we have used a questionnaire to characterized our population from a socio-demographic point of view and reunite all the factors which explain their migration. Then, we have conducted eight biographical interviews to encourage the subject to build a self-narrative. In the last phase of the interview, the have subjects have been shown four short videos from three documentaries to confront them to different points of view and situations and have them reflect on their own experience. We also included a documentary analysis using press articles regarding the Brazilian context. We obtained 89 answers to the questionnaire, 43 in France and 46 in Brazil. We conducted 8 narrative interviews, with physicians aged between 36 and 71, 3 women and 5 men, among which 2 had a European Union diploma and 6 had a diploma from outside the UE. Our analysis has shown that the validation of the diploma has a great impact on each individual’s recognition and identity related processes. This recognition aspects are also mediated by factors such as gender, language and cultural through dialogical relationships involving the subject

Cette étude porte principalement sur la production de connaissances à l'égard de l'impact des représentations de l'univers éducatif, ainsi que de l'influence de la trajectoire migratoire, sur les stratégies d'accompagnement parental à l'école de jeunes péruviens immigrants à Sherbrooke. Ma proposition de recherche se lit comme suit: Les représentations de l'univers éducatif (qui sont le produit construit du vécu, des savoirs et de l'expérience des parents péruviens) ainsi que la trajectoire migratoire ont des incidences sur le type d'accompagnement parental offert à l'enfant dans son cheminement scolaire à l'intérieur de la société d'accueil (Sherbrooke). Par ailleurs, c'est à travers les lunettes d'une chercheure engagée et militante, une approche qualitative et ethnographique, ainsi qu'une perspective structurelle conscientisante, que j'ai posé mon regard sur ce projet de recherche. La méthodologie suivie fut celle d'études de cas et d'entrevues semi directives. La stratégie d'échantillonnage utilisée se voulait selon la méthode boule de neige (Mayer et al., 2000) et non probabiliste soit l'échantillon typique (purposeful sampling : Patton, 2002). Mon échantillon comprenait sept familles péruviennes immigrantes à Sherbrooke (n = 7 mères / n = 6 pères) ayant au moins un enfant d'âge scolaire. Et enfin, c'est à travers l'approche mixte de Huberman et Mills (1984) que j'ai complété l'analyse des données cumulées."--résumé abrégé par UMI.

Contre la vision mécanique et surplombante tendant à dominer dans la sociologie classique des migrations, cette recherche tente d’articuler les dimensions micro, méso et macro sociales constitutives du phénomène migratoire pour rendre compte de la carrière migratoire et de la (re)construction personnelle des migrants. Nous pensons la migration de manière « circulaire et continue », à l’opposé des perspectives qui tendent, encore aujourd’hui, à la penser comme un déplacement définitif entre un point A et un point B, de même que comme une rupture entre le lieu de départ et le lieu d’arrivée. Nous questionnons la trajectoire sociale et géographique ainsi que le système d’activité professionnelle dans le façonnement de la carrière migratoire et la (re)construction personnelle des réfugiés au Canada. En fait, nous faisons ressortir le cheminement personnel des migrants dans les dynamiques d’influence croisée entre les configurations de leurs sociétés d’origine et d’accueil. À ce titre, la situation des populations demandeuses d’asile en vue de l’obtention du statut de réfugié est particulièrement intéressante puisque leurs trajectoires sont généralement complexes et souvent douloureuses à divers titres. Pour ce faire, nous nous intéressons au cas des demandeurs d’asile d’origine haïtienne entrés au Canada, particulièrement au Québec, par le Chemin Roxham entre l’été 2017 et l’automne 2018. Plus spécifiquement, nous saisissons le système d’activité qui module leurs trajectoires biographiques. Nous appréhendons notre objet d’étude au prisme d’une lunette interactionniste, laquelle nous permet de souligner l’agentivité des migrants sans toutefois minimiser les contraintes sociales et structurelles qui pèsent sur eux. Dans cette veine, nous saisissons la fabrication quotidienne de la carrière migratoire des réfugiés haïtiens comme un processus complexe où les fragments du monde matériel et social sont subordonnés aux efforts subjectifs qu’ils déploient en vue de bricoler leur vie dans des interactions complexes avec le système canadien d’intégration sociale et professionnelle. Ce travail permet de mettre en évidence que la trajectoire (géographique et sociale) et le système d’activité des réfugiés haïtiens participent effectivement du façonnement de leur carrière migratoire et rendent compte de leur processus de (re)construction personnelle dans la société canadienne. En fait, nous analysons particulièrement l’implication du système d’activité de ces réfugiés dans leur processus de réalisation de soi. Ainsi, nous nous rendons à l’évidence qu’en raison de leur situation de demandeurs d’asile et aussi parce qu’ils sont identifiés comme membres d’une minorité visible (noir africain) dans la société d’accueil canadienne, pour s’intégrer socialement et professionnellement, ils ont fait face à beaucoup d’obstacles et de défis. La plupart ont été contraints de s’investir dans des secteurs d’activité qui ne répondent pas à leur formation et à leur champ de compétence et/ou d’expérience. L’investissement personnel dans l’exercice de petits boulots en vue de répondre à des obligations personnelles et familiales (ici et/ou ailleurs) et l’investissement dans des activités de renforcement des capacités en vue de s’accommoder à des attentes économiques et socioculturelles tant dans la société d’accueil que de la société d’origine, participent du processus de façonnement de la carrière migratoire. Ils procèdent en saisissant les moindres opportunités qui leur permettent de transformer à leur avantage les événements de la vie quotidienne.

Cette thèse s'inscrit dans une réflexion contemporaine sur la façon dont les mobilités spatiales spécifient les rapports pratiques (agencement spatial des activités) et idéels (connaissance et représentations) des individus à leurs espaces de résidence. La notion d'habiter est ici utilisée pour saisir les spatialités des migrants japonais séjournant à Paris. Un tel objet de recherche amène à analyser une expérience particulière de mobilité : la migration internationale entre des lieux que sépare une grande distance spatiale et que distinguent clairement des caractéristiques urbanistiques, sociales et culturelles. L'analyse croisée de données issues du recensement et d'entretiens avec un échantillon de migrants japonais montre que, par leurs manières d'habiter Paris, les individus prennent en charge cette confrontation à la distance de façon dynamique, complexe et différenciée. Les temporalités du séjour et les significations attribuées à la séquence parisienne des trajectoires biographiques apparaissent comme des facteurs-clés de différenciation, et se traduisent dans les choix résidentiels à Paris comme dans les échanges avec les lieux japonais de l'espace de vie. Elles éclairent aussi le rythme et l'ampleur de l'autonomisation des migrants japonais vis-à-vis des ressources commerciales, sociales ou informationnelles qui leur sont dédiées. Enfin, par leurs manières d'habiter, ceux-ci contribuent à certaines dynamiques urbaines : renforcement de l'image internationale de quartiers valorisés du centre-ouest parisien ; spécialisation d'un segment du parc locatif dans l'accueil d'étrangers qualifiés ; complexification des marquages sociaux dans des quartiers en cours de gentrification ; création d'une offre commerciale et culturelle spécifique qui, dans le quartier de l'Opéra, enrichit l'attractivité d'une centralité économique et historique majeure de la métropole. Ces contributions reposent sur la position ambivalente des migrants japonais à Paris, entre proximité liée à leur statut d'élites migrantes originaires d'un pays du Nord, et distance inhérente à une migration lointaine.

Magister Philosophiae - MPhil<br>This study investigates ways in which migratory trajectories relate to the gradual insertion and eventual integration of immigrants. It therefore shows the contribution of social capital in the migration and insertion into the entrepreneurial city of the host country. The focus of the study is on immigrants of African origin. It is hypothesized that immigrants of different nationalities in South Africa use particular assets to engage in street vending as a way of insertion into their new environment. Data were obtained through a survey of two hundred and eight (208) respondents conveniently selected. The survey was carried out in five suburbs of Cape Town and as well as at some major road junctions where these vendors are found. The Statistical package for Social Science (SPSS) was used to analyse the data. The results showed that nationality was an important determinant of the migratory trajectories of immigrant vendors.Migration has been on the increase with the improvement in technology and globalization. In the same light, migration into South African cities mainly from the rest of Africa and Asia took an upward trend especially after the fall of Apartheid Regime and the advent of democracy in the nineties. Street vendors form part of these immigrants in South Africa. Many of them especially from other African countries find it a suitable means of survival. Faced with the difficulty of getting jobs in South Africa, immigrants resort to informal trading as a starting point for survival.They may change to other activities depending on certain variables like duration of stay, level of education, age, sex, marital status, social capital and networks. Coming from different socioeconomic, cultural and political backgrounds, these immigrants resort to different ways of migrating and forms of adaptation aimed at sustaining their livelihood in their new environments.Most studies in the field of migration and entrepreneurship focus on remittances by the migrants as well as their impact on both their place of departure and on the place of destination. Little attention is paid to the way they migrate and how they insert themselves in the entrepreneurial city.

Cette recherche qualitative de type exploratoire tente, à l'aide du discours de jeunes réfugiés, de comprendre de quelle manière leur parcours migratoire contribue à leur projet d'intégration et identitaire, notamment en saisissant leurs perceptions de leur situation actuelle, leurs rapports avec différents réseaux sociaux, l'impact de leur statut identitaire sur leur insertion scolaire, l'impact de leur statut d’immigrant sur les relations intrafamiliales comme sur leurs choix de relations avec les pairs et leur vision de leur futur. De plus, le but de ce mémoire est de poser un regard sur la mise en place de différentes formes de stratégies identitaires au sein de divers réseaux d'appartenance locaux ou transnationaux (école, religion, organismes communautaires, etc.). Afin de mieux comprendre cette réalité, encore peu traitée au Québec, de jeunes réfugiés âgés entre 15 et 21 ans ont été sollicités pour prendre la parole lors de deux entrevues semi-dirigées. Les données résultant des entrevues mettent en évidence une singularité des cas. Malgré tout, quelques tendances semblent ressortir dans le projet migratoire et d’intégration, tels que des trajectoires migratoires empreintes d’événements douloureux, des défis dans le parcours social et scolaire au Québec et une capacité à surmonter l’adversité dans des situations de contraintes répétitives.<br>The purpose of this qualitative exploratory study was to examine refugee youths’ immigration trajectories and their integration and identity work as newcomers to Quebec. Their perceptions were explored in terms of social integration, school integration, the development of peer networks, and their future outlook and aspirations. Employed identity strategies were explored in contexts such as schooling, religion, and community organizations. Five refugee youth, ranging in age from 15 to 21 years, were solicited for the study. They participated in two in-depth semi-structured interviews, facilitated by the use of personal artefacts and pictures. Results underline the uniqueness of each of the cases, both in terms of reasons for departure and subsequent trajectories and identity work. Despite this diversity, some commonalities could be noted. The immigration trajectories were emotionally charged and difficult for all youth interviewed. They all struggled with their social integration both within and outside of school, as well as in terms of ensuring continued academic success. Yet, they all exhibited the capacity to overcome adversity, despite repeated and on-going challenges, and showed much resilience. In terms of their identity strategies, some developed a hybrid identity, integrating past and current identity work into a coherent whole, while others were still in a stage of exploration or actively involved in working towards a coherent sense of self that could accommodate the complexity of their life experiences. Longitudinal studies are needed to document the development of identity strategies that facilitate refugee youths’ integration while ensuring on-going resilience, academic success and psychological well-being.

Democrats once dominated the “Solid South.” By the turn of the 21st century, Republicans had taken control. We are in the midst of the dawning of new, more progressive era. Theories explaining Republican growth provide little guidance, but a new perspective—Movers and Stayers theory—explains this recent growth in Democratic support and the ways in which population growth has produced it. Migratory patterns play a significant role in southern politics. Young, well-educated in-migrants fostered Republican growth in the last century. Today, these increasingly progressive young, well-educated movers are growing the Democratic Party. Movers bring their politics to their new communities. Their progressivism fosters the same among long-term residents (stayers) in their new communities. But the declining communities they left show the effects of their exit. In our racialized partisan environment, white stayers respond to the threat of declining communities by shifting to the right and identifying with the Republican Party. Conversely, African Americans respond to community threat by maintaining their progressivism. Few Latinos live in declining communities; Latino stayers in fast growing communities become more Democratic. While movers of retirement age are more conservative than younger movers, they are more liberal than those who retire in place—not quite the demographic windfall Republicans in aging areas have hoped for. These dynamics are altering the southern political landscape, and differences between growing areas and declining areas are accelerating. Absent a wholesale reinvention of southern politics along the lines of class or (possibly) age, the current partisan trajectory does not bode well for Republicans. The COVID-19 pandemic will not change that.

Centuries before King Harold of England famously received an arrow in the eye (AD 1066), Chinese officials in the T’ang dynasty (AD 618–907) began collecting annual reports on the abundance of migratory locusts. The primary aim of this initiative was to make sense of the changes over time (the dynamics) of this devastating agricultural pest, and thereby predict the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Now, despite a staggering 1,300 years of faithful recording, few patterns are evident and the data look decidedly messy. Irregular climatic fluctuations, particularly those involved in the drying up of grasslands on river deltas, may explain some of the variability. However, one might wonder whether some of this ‘messiness’ was internally driven, caused by some sort of ‘feedback’ arising within the dynamics themselves. Many long-term data sets on population dynamics have these extremely messy qualities, ranging from the daily number of damselfish reaching maturity on the Great Barrier Reef to the number of feral sheep on Scottish Islands, and it is important to know where it all comes from. The study of ‘chaos’ (easiest to define negatively as an absence of order, but we will get to a more formal definition later) has its roots in precisely the type of feedback processes referred to above, reflecting what mathematicians call ‘non-linearities’ (relationships that are not straight lines). Several mathematicians, most notably, the eminent French mathematician Henri Poincaré (1854–1912), had long noted that non-linear systems could generate some extremely unusual dynamics, such that the precise trajectory a system took was highly sensitive to the initial conditions. However, observations such as these were largely overlooked by ecologists until a new generation of researchers, notably Robert May (a physicist turned ecologist, now Lord May of Oxford), began toying with their own simple ecological models and appreciating that the behaviour of these models was not always simple. Until ecologists were made aware of the potential effects of non-linearities in the 1970s, the prevailing view was that complex dynamics must have complex causes.