Academic literature on the topic 'Ministry of International Trade and Industry'

The formation of Halal Development Corporation (HDC) in September 2006 was a strong indication of the Malaysian government’s aspiration towards actualising Malaysia as the regional and international hub for Halal industry. HDC is dedicated to becoming the central implementation agency for key Halal industry development initiatives. Its pertinent roles are to promote Halal industries, liaise with government agencies and authorities and to assist business entities and investors. Since Halal is a national agenda, in discharging its function HDC closely works with various agencies which include Department of Islamic Development Malaysia (JAKIM), State Religious Council/Department of States, Ministry of Domestic Trade, Co-Operatives & Consumerism (MDTCC), Ministry of Trade And Industry (MITI), Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (MATRADE), Malaysian Industrial Development Authority (MIDA), Department of Veterinary Services, Department of Standards and many more. A fuller picture of the Halal certification procedure in Malaysia, as I attempt to show below, is in order to place my proposal for its consolidation in its proper context.

Singapore’s Trade and Industry Ministry announced an ambitious ‘global schoolhouse’ vision in 2002. This vision, which was clearly economically-driven in nature, involved Singapore capturing a share of the lucrative international education market by attracting 150,000 international full-fee paying students by the year 2015. Fourteen years down the road, it appears that the target is nowhere near attainment.

Afghanistan is at a strategic location which acts as an important corridor in Asia and connects powerful industrial economies such as India and China to Northern Asia and to Europe via dry and seaways and vice versa through the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, Chabahar port and other corridors. The study asses to perceive the performance and trend of Afghanistan’s export and import. Moreover, the study points out to the destinations of Afghanistan's exports by regions and origin of Afghanistan’s imports by regions. The paper descriptively concentrates on direction, trend, and performance of the Afghanistan trade. The data is retrieved from numerous secondary sources encompass National Statistic and Information Authority and Ministry of Trade and Industry of Afghanistan. The period selected is from 2002 to 2018. Moreover, the research is based on quantitative data and descriptive statistics have been used to analyze the trend and direction of the Afghanistan trade. The study shows that there is an ascending direction of Afghanistan's export to Emerging and Developing Asian Economies majorly includes Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, while it indicates a descending export direction to Advanced Economies, Commonwealth Independent States, Middle East, and European Nations. Furthermore, Afghanistan's import shared with the regions is in an unstable form. JEL Classification Codes: F1, F10, F19.

Summary Throughout the existence of the Polish People’s Republic (PPR), its scientific and technical intelligence (S&TI) supported Polish mining, energy, metallurgy, and machine industries. Cooperation with companies and research and development centers intensified in the first half of the 1970s, as a natural consequence of the experience accumulated by the intelligence service in the previous fifteen years. The most crucial issues related to the improvement of secret methods of acquiring technologies for the Polish economy were defining the scope of the tasks, i.e. the types of technologies which can be acquired by intelligence or purchased in the black market, selecting objects, (i.e. institutions and organizations with the required knowledge), and recruiting personal sources of information in western facilities. Apart from acquiring specific solutions S&TI also developed analyses related to specific countries, as well as to specific technologies in the global aspect or to international corporations that possessed the technologies. Furthermore, S&TI was engaged by the Polish government to provide information to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of International Trade during trade negotiations with foreign contractors. Author draws the history of Polish S&TI during the 70s and 80s, showcasing its operations, explaining its modus operandi and discussing the question about the efficiency of illicit transfer of know-how from OECD for the purposes technical progress in communist Poland. Article bases on recently declassified documents of Polish intelligence service from the pre-1990 period. There are moreover other archival records as well as secondary sources explored.

<p><em>National industries need to anticipate the numerous environmental issues in international trade, in order to compete with other countries. Ministry of Industry Republic of Indonesia has responded that issue by putting green industry as an important part of Master Plan of National Industry Development 2015 – 2035. To encourage industry in implementing green industry principle, since 2010 Ministry of Indsutry has conducted Green Industry Award. Although each year, there is an increasing number of award receivers, but comparing with the total numbers of industries in Indonesia, the percentage of award receivers is so small. Therefore, this research is conducted to measure the </em><em>environmental performance</em><em> of several industries in Indonesia in order to know whether industries are ready to implement green industry standard. Data were collected in 6 manufacturing industries, based on the green industry self-assessment form released by ministry of industry. From the sixth industries which were evaluated, there are two industries that show low commitment to the environment because their scores are below 50. There is one industry categorized as green industry level 1 (score=56.5). Meanwhile there are two industries categorized as level 3 (score= 77.1 and 79.8) and one industry reached level 4 (score 82.1).</em></p><p><em>Keywords: green industry,environment performance, self-assesment</em></p>

The current research investigates Mapping Issues of Textile Industry of Pakistan with Trade Policy Framework. Data were collected from Primary as well as secondary sources It is a statistical research technique in decision making that is used for the selection of a limited number of tasks that produce significant overall effect. It separates the few major problems from the many possible problems. It is named after Vilfredo Pareto, a 19th-century Italian economist. It can summarize all types of data. It can be applied to almost anything. It was revealed that four issues may be solved by the Government through trade policy of Pakistan as shown in figure 7-12 below. First and issue that in the international Markets Preferential Treatment is provided to the competitors and the second issue about Imposition of Anti-dumping duties on Pakistan’s exports may be solved by Rationalizing Tariff Protection Policy (TPP) High tariff protection maintained over a period of time tends to erode competitiveness and affects consumer welfare. Therefore to protect Industry from High Tariffs, Ministry of Commerce will adopt some guiding principles to create a competitive environment that caters for dual aspects of providing level playing field for Pakistani firms in international markets; By Signing Favorable international agreements, Promote competitive markets in Pakistan, Ensure conformity to international agreements and practices, Promote domestic and foreign investment, Create level playing field for Pakistani firms in international as well as domestic markets, Due consideration to consumer welfare, Cater to the changing needs of Pakistan’s economy and create an enabling environment to pursue the legitimate goal of Industrialization in Pakistan. Due to the prompt implementation of the above policy measure by Government on 12th December 2013 European Union granted GSP-Plus status to Pakistan, It gives exporters duty-free access to 27 European countries. GSP (Generalized system of Preference) is exemption of WTO member countries from tariffs by considering as a least developed nation and granted till 2017. It is a chance to export more than US$1 billion worth of products and earn profits of more than Rs1 trillion per year.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1991.
Title as it appears in the June, 1991 M.I.T. Graduate List: International trade in dairy products and the New Zeland industry.
Includes bibliographical references.
by Hugh Gollan.
M.S.

The International competitiveness of Jordan's manufacturing sector has recently been of considerable concern to officials in Jordan. This study examines Jordan's capacity to compete successfully in foreign markets and with imports in Jordan's market, and the impact of the recent policies on the price and short-run aspects of competitiveness for a period from the mid-1970s to the early 1990s. Unlike previous studies, assessment and analysis of Jordan's relative competitive position are built on indicators constructed exclusively for the manufacturing sector covering import, export, and overall dimensions of competitiveness. The OECD model has been employed using export, import and producer prices, and trade double weights for manufactures. The results show that Jordan's competitiveness deteriorated until the mid-1980s. Subsequently, competitiveness improved with the most pronounced gains being achieved at the end of the 1980s and in the early 1990s, particularly in import and overall competitiveness. The maintenance of a strong Jordanian dinar associated with other unfavourable internal and external developments in Jordan's and competitors' prices before the mid-1980s, and the favourable developments in these prices including the devaluation of the Jordanian dinar at the end of the 1980s, may explain the initial deterioration in competitiveness and the subsequent improvement. Between the mid-1970s and the late-1980s the gains achieved in import competitiveness process were reflected in most years in declines in the import penetration ratio; and in the case of the export competitiveness process were translated into higher market shares. The Constant-Market-Share approach shows that one-third of the expansion in Jordan's manufactured exports was attributable to improved competitiveness. The Commodity effect, particularly for chemicals, was favourable to this expansion, while the concentration of exports on the sluggish import demand of the Middle Eastern countries resulted in a slight unfavourable market effect.

This dissertation addresses specific issues on domestic and foreign trade in India. The three chapters of the dissertation are summarized as follows. In the first chapter, we analyze the existence of regional wage differences across Indian states, and how domestic trade affects those premiums. We follow a two-step estimation process used in the literature on Labor Economics. Our empirical results show that higher level of domestic imports tends to reduce the state premiums, and higher domestic exports increase those premiums, which is consistent with a specific factor Ricardo-Viner model. Thus, promoting domestic trade by with states specializing in certain industries may lead to higher welfare within the country. In addition, we find, state premiums depend negatively on state-level amenities measured by per-capita power availability, and does not depend on the richness of the State measured by per-capita Net State Domestic Product. In the second chapter, we look at the pattern and determinants of inter-state manufacturing trade in India. In the paper, we use information on 12 manufacturing industries categorized under 5 sectors from 2005 to 2013 with two-year intervals in between. We find that a 1\% decrease in income ratio between importing state net state domestic product and exporting state net domestic product has significantly varying effects on trade flows across the different sectors. For coal and minerals, the effect is 36.8%, for chemical it is 105%, for metals it is 31.5% and for cement, it is 36.8%. In all these case a decrease in income ratio increases exports. For machinery, a 1% decrease in income ratio lead to approximately 9.3% reduction in trade. This suggests that machineries which are capital goods are more imported by richer states, whereas the other goods which can be classified as intermediate inputs are more imported by poorer states. We also find that infrastructure promotes trade and on average infrastructure reduces the effect of contiguity by around 28.6% and promotes trade even between non-contiguous states. Therefore, infrastructure in the form of roadways, highways, and railways must be built and maintained to promote facilitate trade in India. In chapter three, we compare the effects of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on Indian exports. We use Indian HS-96 four-digit industry level export data from COMTRADE and tariff data from TRAINS database for the study. The overall result suggests that input tariffs have the largest effect on exports, followed by final tariff and foreign tariffs. A 1% reduction in input tariff leads to around 8.6% increase in exports. A similar reduction in final tariffs and foreign tariffs lead to 3.6% and 2.8% increase, respectively in exports. Thus, we conclude that the supply side effect of exports dominates the demand side effects. From a policy perspective, if countries try to improve trade balance by imposing high tariffs, it may lead to a negative effect on exports through the input tariff effects.

Liberalization of textiles and clothing was one of the pillars of the Uruguay Round under the WTO aimed at promoting economic growth, development and alleviating poverty. For over 40 years this sector had been separated from the established principles of liberal trade stemming mainly from protectionist sentiments. The new regime established by the Uruguay Round aimed at integrating the sector into GATT on the basis of its strengthened rules and disciplines in furtherance of its general objective to liberalize trade. This change in international trade rules is a phenomenal development that is bound to have an impact on trade in other areas. The paper explores the liberalization process by analyzing current trends in the textiles and clothing liberalization process. It identifies opportunities and also highlights challenges the process presents to participants in the sector. Although no precise picture of the trade following the full integration can be drawn at this stage, there are some indicators of potential winners and losers explaining both the praises and condemnation in the liberalization debate from the various commentators. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

“Development of 100kW Automotive Ceramic Gas Turbine (CGT)” is a seven-year program started in fiscal 1990. Subsidized by the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, this program is being carried forward by the Petroleum Energy Center (PEC) and is aimed at the following goals; - Maximum Output Power: 100kW - Maximum Thermal Efficiency: 40% [Turbine Inlet Gas Temperature (TIT): 1350°C] - Emission Characteristics: Conformity to regulations for gasoline-fueled passenger cars.

The Ceramic Gas Turbine (CGT) has great advantages in terms of energy efficiency, environmental protection, and fuel-diversification. In Japan, R&D on the 300 kW CGT has been carried out as one of the national projects entitled “New Sunshine Program”, which are promoted by the New Sunshine Project Promotion Headquarters, Agency of Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI). R&D on the CGT has progressed faithfully and now the operation of prototype CGTs (Turbine Inlet Temperature (TIT) of 1200 °C) is focused. In the paper, the overall status of the R&D activities on the 300 kW CGT will be reviewed with the test results to-date, problems awaiting solution, and perspective for the prototype and pilot CGTs.

Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) conducted thermal-hydraulic projects for verification of thermal-hydraulic design reliability for BWR high-burnup 8×8 and 9×9 fuel assemblies, entrusted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). As a part of the NUPEC thermal-hydraulic projects, hydraulic vibration tests using full-scale test assemblies simulating 9×9 fuel assemblies were carried out to evaluate BWR fuel integrity. The test data were applied to development of a new correlation for the estimation of fuel rod vibration amplitude.

With the aim of achieving higher efficiency, lower pollutant emissions, and multi-fuel capability for small to medium-sized gas turbine engines for use in co-generation systems, a ceramic gas turbine (CGT) research and development program is being promoted by the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) as a part of its “New Sunshine Project”. Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) is participating in this program and developing a regenerative two-shaft CGT (CGT302). In 1993, KHI conducted the first test run of an engine with full ceramic components. At present, the CGT302 achieves 28.8% thermal efficiency at a turbine inlet temperature (TIT) of 1117°C under ISO standard conditions and an actual TIT of 1250°C has been confirmed at the rated speed of the basic CGT. This paper consists of the current state of development of the CGT302 and how ceramic components are applied.

This paper describes The Draft Seismic Design Guidelines to Mitigate Upheaval Buckling of Small Diameter Pipes which were reported by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in 2011. Upheaval buckling of small diameter gas pipes occurred in a high-pressure gas pipeline and three middle-pressure city lines due to the strong ground motion during the 2007 Niigata Chuetsu Offshore earthquake which was a powerful earthquake with moment magnitude of 6.6. A three year research program had been conducted since 2008 to investigate the upheaval buckling behaviors and develop seismic design guidelines to ensure seismic integrity of small diameter high-pressure gas pipelines and middle-pressure main distribution lines.

The Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) is promoting the Ceramic Gas Turbine (CGT) project for energy saving technology development under the ‘New Sunshine project’. The objective of this project is to develop a 300 kW ceramic gas turbine with 42% thermal efficiency at 1350°C turbine inlet temperature. Three types of CGT are under development for individual purposes and concepts. CGT302 is the recuperated two-shaft ceramic gas turbine for cogeneration use. Ceramic materials have many advantages in the application of high temperature gas turbines, but there are still several problems of practical use. Therefore, we introduce the unique technology of monolithic - FRC hybrid concept to fabricate large ceramic components, stress free supporting structure, joining technology, etc. The all ceramic components of the 1200°C CGT were successfully fabricated and engine tests are in progress. This paper will describe the technologies of the CGT302 development and results of engine tests.

Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry has been promoting a 300 kW Ceramic Gas Turbine (CGT) research and development program for 10 years. It was begun in 1988 as a part of the “New Sunshine Project”. The development target is to achieve thermal efficiency of over 42% at a turbine inlet temperature (TIT) of 1350°C. We have been taking a part in this project and developing a regenerative two-shaft CGT302. This project will be finished at the end of FY1998. In 1998, we confirmed 31.7 ppm NOx emission at 1350°C by engine test. This result cleared the target emission level of 70 ppm. We also achieved 40.5% of thermal efficiency at 1412°C TIT and we are working to achieve the final target and cumulating operating hours to confirm reliability of ceramic components at 1200°C TIT which is considered to be reasonable temperature for commercial use. This paper describes about ten years development summary of the CGT302.

NGK Insulators, Ltd. (NGK) has undertaken the research and development on the fabrication processes of high-heat-resistant ceramic components for the CGT301, which is a 300kW recuperative industrial ceramic gas turbine engine. This program is under the New Sunshine Project, funded by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), and has been guided by the Agency of Industrial Science & Technology (AIST) since 1988. The New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) is the main contractor. The fabrication techniques for ceramic components, such as turbine blades, turbine nozzles, combustor liners, gas-path parts, and heat exchanger elements, for the 1,200°C engine were developed by 1993. Development for the 1,350°C engine has been underway since 1994. The baseline conditions for fabricating of all ceramic components have been established. This paper reports on the development of ceramic gas turbine components, and the improved accuracies of their shapes as well as improved reliability from the results of the interim appraisal conducted in 1994.

Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) conducted thermal-hydraulic projects for verification of thermal-hydraulic design reliability for BWR high-burnup 8×8 and 9×9 fuel assemblies, entrusted by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). As a part of the NUPEC thermal-hydraulic projects, post boiling transition (post-BT) tests by the use of full-scale test assemblies simulating 9×9 fuel were carried out to evaluate BWR fuel integrity. Two kinds of post-BT tests, the steady-state post-BT test and transient post-BT test were performed, and the test results were applied to development of new heat transfer and rewet correlations for the estimation of fuel rod surface temperature.

This rapid review synthesises evidence on the current size of the digital market, the countries promoting development of digital business and their approach through Trade Policies or Incentive Frameworks, and the current and potential size of the market with the UK / China / US / other significant countries. It draws on a variety of sources, including reports by international organisations (such as the World Bank and OECD), grey literature produced by think tanks and the private sector, and peer reviewed academic papers. A high proportion of estimates of the size of the digital economy come from research conducted by or for corporations and industry bodies, such as Google and the GSMA (which represents the telecommunications industry). Their research may be influenced by their business interests, the methodologies and data sources they utilise are often opaque, and the information required to critically assess findings is sometimes missing. Given this, the estimates presented in this review are best seen as ballpark figures rather than precise measurements. A limitation of this rapid evidence review stems from the lack of consistent methodologies for estimating the size of the digital economy. The OECD is attempting to develop a standard approach to measuring the digital economy across the national accounts of the G20, but this has not yet been finalised. This makes comparing the results of different studies very challenging. The problem is particularly stark in low income countries, where there are frequently huge gaps in the relevant data.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

For Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) and our partners, 2016 was a year of remarkable successes. Not only did we eradicate 10 fruit fly outbreaks, but we also achieved 4 years with zero detections of pink bollworm, moving us one step closer to eradicating this pest from all commercial cotton-growing areas of the continental United States. And when the U.S. corn industry faced the first-ever detection of bacterial leaf streak (Xanthomonas vasicular pv vasculorum), we devised a practical and scientific approach to manage the disease and protect valuable export markets. Our most significant domestic accomplishment this year, however, was achieving one of our agency’s top 10 goals: eliminating the European grapevine moth (EGVM) from the United States. On the world stage, PPQ helped U.S. agriculture thrive in the global market-place. We worked closely with our international trading partners to develop and promote science-based standards, helping to create a safe, fair, and predictable agricultural trade system that minimizes the spread of invasive plant pests and diseases. We reached critical plant health agreements and resolved plant health barriers to trade, which sustained and expanded U.S. export markets valued at more than $4 billion. And, we helped U.S. producers meet foreign market access requirements and certified the health of more than 650,000 exports, securing economic opportunities for U.S. products abroad. These successes underscore how PPQ is working every day to keep U.S. agriculture healthy and profitable.