Relevant bibliographies by topics / Model Seasonal Cycle

Contents

  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Model Seasonal Cycle'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 6 September 2023
Last updated: 19 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Model Seasonal Cycle"

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Stein, Karl, Niklas Schneider, Axel Timmermann, and Fei-Fei Jin. "Seasonal Synchronization of ENSO Events in a Linear Stochastic Model*." Journal of Climate 23, no. 21 (2010): 5629–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3292.1.

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Abstract A simple model of ENSO is developed to examine the effects of the seasonally varying background state of the equatorial Pacific on the seasonal synchronization of ENSO event peaks. The model is based on the stochastically forced recharge oscillator, extended to include periodic variations of the two main model parameters, which represent ENSO’s growth rate and angular frequency. Idealized experiments show that the seasonal cycle of the growth rate parameter sets the seasonal cycle of ENSO variance; the inclusion of the time dependence of the angular frequency parameter has a negligibl
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Jucker, M., S. Fueglistaler, and G. K. Vallis. "Maintenance of the Stratospheric Structure in an Idealized General Circulation Model." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70, no. 11 (2013): 3341–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-12-0305.1.

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Abstract This work explores the maintenance of the stratospheric structure in a primitive equation model that is forced by a Newtonian cooling with a prescribed radiative equilibrium temperature field. Models such as this are well suited to analyze and address questions regarding the nature of wave propagation and troposphere–stratosphere interactions. The focus lies on the lower to midstratosphere and the mean annual cycle, with its large interhemispheric variations in the radiative background state and forcing, is taken as a benchmark to be simulated with reasonable verisimilitude. A reasona
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Gilford, Daniel M., and Susan Solomon. "Radiative Effects of Stratospheric Seasonal Cycles in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere." Journal of Climate 30, no. 8 (2017): 2769–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0633.1.

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Water vapor and ozone are powerful radiative constituents in the tropical lower stratosphere, impacting the local heating budget and nonlocally forcing the troposphere below. Their near-tropopause seasonal cycle structures imply associated “radiative seasonal cycles” in heating rates that could affect the amplitude and phase of the local temperature seasonal cycle. Overlying stratospheric seasonal cycles of water vapor and ozone could also play a role in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere heat budgets through nonlocal propagation of radiation. Previous studies suggest that the tropic
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Cubadda, Gianluca, Giovanni Savio, and Roberto Zelli. "SEASONALITY, PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS, AND SECTORAL COMOVEMENTS IN A REAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL FOR ITALY." Macroeconomic Dynamics 6, no. 3 (2002): 337–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100500000316.

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This paper investigates the degree of comovements in quarterly Italian time series of sectoral output. A recently developed multivariate technique for the empirical analysis of long-run, cyclical and seasonal comovements is used in the context of a multisectoral real-business-cycle model augmented with persistent seasonal shocks in productivity. Our empirical results emphasize the role of input–output relations in the propagation mechanism and indicate that sectoral outputs have a relatively low number of common stochastic trends, in conflict with the hypothesis of independent productivity sho
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Chen, Gang, and Lantao Sun. "Mechanisms of the Tropical Upwelling Branch of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation: The Role of Extratropical Waves." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 68, no. 12 (2011): 2878–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-11-044.1.

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Abstract The role of extratropical waves in the tropical upwelling branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation is investigated in an idealized model of the stratosphere and troposphere. To simulate different stratospheric seasonal cycles of planetary waves in the two hemispheres, seasonally varying radiative heating is imposed only in the stratosphere, and surface topographic forcing is prescribed only in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). A zonally symmetric version of the same model is used to diagnose the effects of different wavenumbers and different regions of the total forcing on tropical stratos
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Giese, Benjamin S., and James A. Carton. "The Seasonal Cycle in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model." Journal of Climate 7, no. 8 (1994): 1208–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1208:tscico>2.0.co;2.

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Mongwe, N. Precious, Marcello Vichi, and Pedro M. S. Monteiro. "The seasonal cycle of <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> and CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes in the Southern Ocean: diagnosing anomalies in CMIP5 Earth system models." Biogeosciences 15, no. 9 (2018): 2851–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2851-2018.

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Abstract. The Southern Ocean forms an important component of the Earth system as a major sink of CO2 and heat. Recent studies based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) Earth system models (ESMs) show that CMIP5 models disagree on the phasing of the seasonal cycle of the CO2 flux (FCO2) and compare poorly with available observation products for the Southern Ocean. Because the seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of CO2 variability in the Southern Ocean, its simulation is a rigorous test for models and their long-term projections. Here we examine the competing roles of
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Atkinson, C. P., H. L. Bryden, J. J.-M. Hirschi, and T. Kanzow. "On the seasonal cycles and variability of Florida Straits, Ekman and Sverdrup transports at 26° N in the Atlantic Ocean." Ocean Science 6, no. 4 (2010): 837–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-6-837-2010.

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Abstract. Since April 2004 the RAPID array has made continuous measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26° N. Two key components of this system are Ekman transport zonally integrated across 26° N and western boundary current transport in the Florida Straits. Whilst measurements of the AMOC as a whole are somewhat in their infancy, this study investigates what useful information can be extracted on the variability of the Ekman and Florida Straits transports using the decadal timeseries already available. Analysis is also presented for Sverdrup transports zonall
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Atkinson, C. P., H. L. Bryden, J. J. M. Hirschi, and T. Kanzow. "On the variability of Florida Straits and wind driven transports at 26° N in the Atlantic Ocean." Ocean Science Discussions 7, no. 2 (2010): 919–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/osd-7-919-2010.

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Abstract. Since April 2004 the RAPID array has made continuous measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26° N. Two key components of this system are Ekman transport zonally integrated across 26° N and western boundary current transport in the Florida Straits. Whilst measurements of the AMOC as a whole are somewhat in their infancy, this study investigates what useful information can be extracted on the variability of the Ekman and Florida Straits transports using the decadal timeseries already available. Analysis is also presented for Sverdrup transports zonall
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Thum, Tea, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Aki Tsuruta, et al. "Evaluating two soil carbon models within the global land surface model JSBACH using surface and spaceborne observations of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>." Biogeosciences 17, no. 22 (2020): 5721–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5721-2020.

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Abstract. The trajectories of soil carbon in our changing climate are of the utmost importance as soil is a substantial carbon reservoir with a large potential to impact the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) burden. Atmospheric CO2 observations integrate all processes affecting carbon exchange between the surface and the atmosphere and therefore are suitable for carbon cycle model evaluation. In this study, we present a framework for how to use atmospheric CO2 observations to evaluate two distinct soil carbon models (CBALANCE, CBA, and Yasso, YAS) that are implemented in a global land surface m
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Model Seasonal Cycle"

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Mortin, Jonas. "On the Arctic Seasonal Cycle." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU), 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-100008.

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The seasonal cycle of snow and sea ice is a fundamental feature of the Arctic climate system. In the Northern Hemisphere, about 55 million km2 of sea ice and snow undergo complete melt and freeze processes every year. Because snow and sea ice are much brighter (higher albedo) than the underlying surface, their presence reduces absorption of incoming solar energy at high latitudes. Therefore, changes of the sea-ice and snow cover have a large impact on the Arctic climate and possibly at lower latitudes. One of the most important determining factors of the seasonal snow and sea-ice cover is the
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Mongwe, Ndunisani Precious. "The seasonal cycle of CO₂ fluxes in the Southern Ocean: a model spatial scale sensitivity analysis." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/29014.

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Includes bibliographical references<br>A recent study by Lenton et al., 2013, compared the mean seasonal cycle of air-sea CO₂ flux in the Southern Ocean(SO) over 1990 – 2009 period using five ocean biogeochemical models(BGMs) and atmospheric and ocean inversion models with monthly mean observations for the year 2000. This was done using a set of geographic boundaries to defined sub-domains of the SO consistent with the Regional Carbon Cycle and Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) protocol. Lenton et al., 2013 found that the seasonal cycle anomaly of the five BGMs better resolved observations of
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Gordon, Lawrence Joseph. "Analysis of a simulation of the seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean in an eddy-resolving global ocean model." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/23537.

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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited<br>This paper examines the multi-level, primitive equation, global ocean circulation model of Semtner and Chervin for its ability to simulate the seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The result of a 20-year integration of this model using annual mean wind forcing was reported in Semtner and Chervin (1988). This was the first global eddyresolving ocean calculation and it showed many realistic features of ocean circulation. The phase of the simulation analyzed in this report incorporates seasonally varying wind forcing from th
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Gatfaoui, Jamel. "Modeling Chinese provincial business cycles." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012AIXM1110.

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Cette thèse étudie les cycles économiques provinciaux chinois durant la période 1989-2009. Dans un premier temps, Nous utilisons une variété de techniques afin d'examiner la nature et le degré de comouvement entre les cycles de croissance provinciaux chinois. Nous détectons différentes propriétés des cycles de croissance provinciaux. En utilisant une méthodologie de classification basée sur un modèle, nous constatons que les provinces peuvent être classées parmi cinq classes en fonction des mesures standards des caractéristiques cycliques. Bien que la majorité des provinces a connu la récessio
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Van, Damme Martin. "Assessment of global atmospheric ammonia using IASI infrared satellite observations." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209085.

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ENGLISH:<p>The natural nitrogen cycle has been and is significantly perturbed by anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen (Nr) compounds into the atmosphere, resulting from our production of energy and food. In the last century global ammonia (NH3) emissions have doubled and represent nowadays more than half of total the Nr emissions. NH3 is also the principal atmospheric base in the atmosphere and rapidly forms aerosols by reaction with acids. It is therefore a species of high relevance for the Earth's environment, climate and human health (Chapter 1). As a short-lived species, NH3 is hig
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Domingues, Catia Motta, and Catia Domingues@csiro au. "Kinematics and Heat Budget of the Leeuwin Current." Flinders University. SOCPES, 2006. http://catalogue.flinders.edu.au./local/adt/public/adt-SFU20060612.211358.

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This study investigates the upper ocean circulation along the west Australian coast, based on recent observations (WOCE ICM6, 1994/96) and numerical output from the 1/6 degree Parallel Ocean Program model (POP11B 1993/97). Particularly, we identify the source regions of the Leeuwin Current, quantify its mean and seasonal variability in terms of volume, heat and salt transports, and examine its heat balance (cooling mechanism). This also leads to further understanding of the regional circulation associated with the Leeuwin Undercurrent, the Eastern Gyral Current and the southeast Indian Subtrop
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Hsu, Wei-Ching. "The variability and seasonal cycle of the Southern Ocean carbon flux." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49079.

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Both physical circulation and biogeochemical characteristics are unique in the Southern Ocean (SO) region, and are fundamentally different from those of the northern hemisphere. Moreover, according to previous research, the oceanic response to the trend of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) has profound impacts on the future oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide in the SO. In other words, the climate and circulation of the SO are strongly coupled to the overlying atmospheric variability. However, while we have understanding on the SO physical circulation and have the ability to predict the future chang
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Liu, Yongwen, Shilong Piao, Xu Lian, Philippe Ciais, and W. Kolby Smith. "Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection." AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625331.

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Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982-2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The tempera
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Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo Nicolas. "Recent trends in the land carbon cycle." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/18661.

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Land ecosystems absorb about a quarter of all human emissions of carbon (C) by fossil fuel burning and land use change. This percentage varies greatly within years due to the land ecosystem response to climate variability and disturbance. Significant uncertainties remain in our knowledge of the magnitude and spatio-temporal changes in the land C sinks. The aims of my thesis are 1) to evaluate the capacity of different dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to reproduce the fluxes and stocks of the land C cycle and 2) to analyse the drivers of change in the land C over the last two decades (1
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Pyeatt, John Samuel. "The seasonal cycle of planetary-scale divergent circulations a comparison of observed fields and model simulations /." 1987. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/16461301.html.

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Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1987.<br>Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 93-97).
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Books on the topic "Model Seasonal Cycle"

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Gordon, Lawrence Joseph. Analysis of a simulation of the seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean in an eddy-resolving global ocean model. Naval Postgraduate School, 1992.

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Barsky, Robert B. The seasonal cycle and the business cycle. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988.

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Cecchetti, Stephen G. International cycles. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1995.

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Miron, Jeffrey A. What have macroeconomists learned about business cycles from the study of seasonal cycles? National Bureau of Economic Research, 1995.

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Krane, Spencer D. The cyclical sensitivity of seasonality in US employment. Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Dept., 1999.

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Lumsdaine, Robin L. Identifying the common component in international economic fluctuations. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997.

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Cecchetti, Stephen G. Do firms smooth the seasonal in production in a boom?: Theory and evidence. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1995.

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Goswami, B. N., and Soumi Chakravorty. Dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon Climate. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.613.

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Lifeline for about one-sixth of the world’s population in the subcontinent, the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the annual cycle of the winds (reversal of winds with seasons), coupled with a strong annual cycle of precipitation (wet summer and dry winter). For over a century, high socioeconomic impacts of ISM rainfall (ISMR) in the region have driven scientists to attempt to predict the year-to-year variations of ISM rainfall. A remarkably stable phenomenon, making its appearance every year without fail, the ISM climate exhibits a rather small year-to-year variation (the sta
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Hameed, Saji N. The Indian Ocean Dipole. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.619.

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Discovered at the very end of the 20th century, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a mode of natural climate variability that arises out of coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean. It is associated with some of the largest changes of ocean–atmosphere state over the equatorial Indian Ocean on interannual time scales. IOD variability is prominent during the boreal summer and fall seasons, with its maximum intensity developing at the end of the boreal-fall season. Between the peaks of its negative and positive phases, IOD manifests a markedly zonal see-saw in anomalous sea surface
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Lumsdaine, Robin L., and Eswar Prasad. Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach. International Monetary Fund, 1999.

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Book chapters on the topic "Model Seasonal Cycle"

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Bee Dagum, Estela, and Silvia Bianconcini. "Seasonal Adjustment Based on ARIMA Model Decomposition: TRAMO-SEATS." In Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation. Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31822-6_5.

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Fung, Inez Y. "Analysis of the Seasonal and Geographical Patterns of Atmospheric CO2 Distributions with a Three-Dimensional Tracer Model." In The Changing Carbon Cycle. Springer New York, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-1915-4_22.

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Blades, Luke, Teresa McGrath, Juliana Early, and Andrew Harris. "Examining How Geographical Location Impacts Fuel Cell Electric Bus Operational Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions." In Lecture Notes in Mobility. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-89444-2_21.

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Abstract This paper examines the impact of geographical location on the energy consumption of double deck fuel cell electric buses operating in two UK cities. By considering seasonal variation in ambient temperature, the implications on operational carbon emissions were investigated. Using a MATLAB/Simulink model the total energy demand of a vehicle operating on the UK Bus Cycle was simulated. Results show that the range of a fuel cell electric bus can reduce by 18.3% due to seasonal and geographical ambient temperature variations. The carbon emissions associated with refuelling can change by up to 17% between summer and winter and are 20 times higher when hydrogen is produced by electrolysis using grid electricity compared to renewable electricity.
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Eniola, Victor, Kafayat Adeyemi, Mohammed Adamu, et al. "Daily Streamflow Forecasting Using an Enhanced LSTM Neural Network Model." In Modelling the Energy Transition. Springer Nature Switzerland, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-69031-0_8.

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Abstract Oil and gas consumption for power generation has caused irreversible damage to humanity. To address the attendant effects of fossil fuel utilization, renewable energy is a good alternative. International organizations give support to countries in their transition to a green energy future. This implies that the use of renewable energy is widely supported. It is therefore recommended to utilize renewable energy as it is environmentally friendly. One such type of renewables is water energy. Water cycle has streamflow $$\left( {f_{s} } \right)$$ f s as its central component. Having reliable information about future $$f_{s}$$ f s data is essential in hydrological research, as it can help water managers to plan hydropower generation. To also ensure preparedness and mitigation of floods and drought as well as hydropower production planning and management, precise $$f_{s}$$ f s prediction is considered essential. Several modelling methods have been used lately to forecast $$f_{s}$$ f s , namely: physical methods, data-driven approaches such as shallow artificial neural networks (ANNs), and hybrid techniques. Nevertheless, they may not approximate complex relationships as accurate as deep learning techniques. In this study, an innovative deep learning technique based on long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network adapted with data preprocessing algorithm (DPA) is proposed for seasonal $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting. Considering recent studies on $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting, one can avow that researchers have been able to employ lag value predictors for future $$f_{s}$$ f s extrapolation, although deep learning techniques can offer good potentials for $$f_{s}$$ f s prediction with complex physical relationship. However, to the best knowledge of the authors, only very few studies have applied LSTM neural network for streamflow forecasting. In addition, there have been attempts to estimate river $$f_{s}$$ f s in Nigeria using some traditional methods though, but the effect of seasonal variation on $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting has never been investigated in Nigeria. This is the maiden research in Nigeria that considers seasonal variation in LSTM neural network model-based $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting. Accordingly, the novelty and key contribution of our state-of-the-art research is the development and implementation of a low-cost intelligent deep learning model based on the LSTM neural network enhanced with DPA for day-ahead $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting. To further demonstrate the $$f_{s}$$ f s modelling capability of our technique, we have examined the performances of two different baseline approaches namely, the linear regression (LinReg) model and the adaptive linear element neural network (ADALINE-NN) model. The results of $$f_{s}$$ f s simulation indicated that the proposed LSTM neural network model has the capability to handle varnishing or exploding gradient conundrum. It is highly robust and steady with better accuracy when configured for 24-hour ahead $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting. The LSTM neural network model outpaced both baseline approaches as model comparisons showed that it has the highest extrapolative accuracy. It presents the lowest RMSE and MAPE and the best NSME and CoC of [2.73, 1.28] m3/s, [11.16, 8.16] %, [0.91, 0.83], and [0.97, 0.95] for the rainy and dry season respectively. As the results of the LSTM neural network approach are observed to be more stable in general, it can be established that the proposed model is a practical daily $$f_{s}$$ f s forecasting technique for both the rainy and dry season.
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Heimann, Martin, Charles D. Keeling, and Compton J. Tucker. "A three dimensional model of atmospheric CO2transport based on observed winds: 3. Seasonal cycle and synoptic time scale variations." In Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas. American Geophysical Union, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/gm055p0277.

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Liu, Junguo, Ganquan Mao, Shuyu Zhang, et al. "Surface Water." In Water Resources in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin: Impact of Climate Change and Human Interventions. Springer Nature Singapore, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-0759-1_3.

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AbstractThis chapter assesses surface water changes due to climate change and human activities, by particularly examining runoff and streamflow. Changes in the hydrological cycle due to climate change and human intervention can lead to diverse environmental impacts and risks. Fresh water is the agent that delivers many of the impacts of climate change on society. As the major component of freshwater systems, surface water has been significantly altered across basins in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics. The comprehensive understanding of the current status of surface water in the LMRB, such as the distributions and patterns of runoff changes across the Lancang-Mekong River Basin was completed through the high-resolution river network extraction and sophisticated hydrological models. Significant but different trends were found in the seasonal and annual runoff from the LMRB due to different reasons. Over the period of 1971–2010, the annual streamflow shows a general downward trend due to the continued enhancement of human activities. Runoff in the dry season is found to increase faster than the mean annual runoff. As for the spatial distribution, significant trends in streamflow were observed mainly in the middle basin and east of the lower basin. Superimposed on the substantial seasonal cycles is the noticeable lake shrinkage in recent years, especially the Tonle Sap Lake. Evidently decreased inundation was found in most years in the recent two decades from 2000 to 2018. An evident decreasing trend in runoff caused by climate change in the high correlation zone of the Tonle Sap Lake, mainly due to the precipitation decreasing, indicates that climate change contributed to the decrease in water level in the Tonle Sap Lake in addition to human activities. In addition to the decreases in the runoff, streamflow and water level in the Tonle Sap Lake, a significant (p &lt; 0.05) downward trend in the baseflow was also found from 1980 to 2007. Unlike the historical changes in runoff, previous studies projected with high confidence an increasing trend for streamflow in the LMRB, regardless of the climate forcings and models used. However, the flow regime is highly susceptible to a variety of drivers, e.g., dam construction, irrigation expansion, land-use change and climate change. Substantial changes are expected in both annual and seasonal flow, along with a generally increasing trend. Although hydropower development exhibits a limited influence on total annual flows, it has the largest seasonal impact on streamflow, with an increase in the dry season and a decrease in the wet season, by outweighing those of the other drivers.
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Bee Dagum, Estela, and Silvia Bianconcini. "Seasonal Adjustment Based on Structural Time Series Models." In Seasonal Adjustment Methods and Real Time Trend-Cycle Estimation. Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-31822-6_6.

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Osborn*, Denise R. "Seasonality and Habit Persistence in a Life Cycle Model of Consumption." In Modelling Seasonality. Oxford University PressOxford, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198773177.003.0009.

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Abstract Abstract. The allocation of non-durable consumers’ expenditure over the four quarters of the year reflects choices made by consumers, implying a utility function exhibiting seasonality. Incorporating such a function, the life cycle model fails to explain fully the observed dynamics in UK seasonally unadjusted data. Seasonal habit persistence effects are introduced and found to be significant. Although this generalized model stands up well to testing in a univariate context, it fails to exclude a predictive role for lagged income changes. Seasonality is inherent in many economic time series, but it is rarely considered to be an issue of interest in econometric model-building. Rather than explicitly investigating the economics underlying seasonal variation, modellers typically try to remove its effects either by using seasonally adjusted data or by including seasonal intercept dummies in their equations.
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Zupanc, Günther K. H. "Neuromodulation: The accommodation of motivational changes in behavior." In Behavioral Neurobiology. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/hesc/9780198738725.003.0009.

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This chapter discusses neural mechanisms that mediate motivational changes in the behavior of animals. It tackles the two major neural mechanisms that mediate motivational changes in behavior: structural reorganization of neural networks and biochemical switching of neural networks. The chapter considers some well-studied model systems to illustrate underlying principles. It explains dendritic plasticity by examining the seasonal changes in chirping behavior of weakly electric knifefish. It also discusses the seasonal variation in dendritic morphology of motoneurons in white-footed mice. Furthermore, it explains axonal or synaptic plasticity as a mechanism for accommodating variability in reproductive behavior during the estrous cycle of female cats. Then it reviews the modulation of the stomatogastric ganglion and the modulation of crayfish aggressive behavior to explain biochemical switching.
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Jolly, W. Matt, and Elliott T. Conrad. "A mechanistic live fuel moisture model." In Advances in Forest Fire Research 2022. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2298-9_3.

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Wildland fires are a common global disturbance and many of these fires burn through mixtures of living and dead vegetation. Live fuels are unique because they regulate biomass and water content actively through processes such as photosynthesis or transpiration. The main goal of these processes is to maintain the growth and maintenance demands of the plants while minimising water loss. Historically, live fuel dynamics were assumed to be only driven by evaporative or drying processes and little attention was paid to the interplay between carbon and water dynamics. Here we present a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture (LFM) which is a critical component of live fuel flammability. The model decouples LFM into metrics that are easy to measure such as particle density, surface-area-to-volume ratio, leaf mass area and relative water content. Each metric serves as a proxy for important components of the seasonal water and carbon cycle or to capture inter-species variations in physical properties.We evaluate this model using field measurements of physical and chemical characteristics for a Douglas Fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a common intermountain US tree species that commonly burns in crown fires. This simple, mechanistic model was effective at characterising the seasonal variations in LFM across both new and old foliage as a simple function of foliar density and relative water content (r2=0.984,p &lt; 0.05) . Finally, we show how this decoupled model can be used to more appropriately parameterize a 3-dimensional computational fluid dynamics based fire behaviour model to represent an appropriate live fuel moisture as the combined effects of biomass and moisture variations on canopy flammability.
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Conference papers on the topic "Model Seasonal Cycle"

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Rusk, David T., and Thomas A. Ross. "Statistical Modeling of Weather Data for Representative Environmental Severity Testing." In CORROSION 2020. NACE International, 2020. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2020-14255.

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Abstract An effort has been undertaken to develop a methodology that defines a set of reference environmental exposure histories that are statistically representative of the weather variation at a specific geographic location. Three years of NOAA weather station data from three different U.S. Military installations were analyzed and modeled to assess wet cycle start, end times and cycle durations over each season. Wet cycle start and end events were defined by transition through the deliquescence and efflorescence Relative Humidity (RH) levels for NaCl thin film solutions. Statistical distribu
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Sun, Minghui, Yifan Yang, Wencheng He, Qixiang Yan, Chuan Zhang, and Xiaolong Liao. "Investigation of Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Variations in Seasonal Frozen Region Tunnels." In IABSE Symposium, Tokyo 2025: Environmentally Friendly Technologies and Structures: Focusing on Sustainable Approaches. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2025. https://doi.org/10.2749/tokyo.2025.0158.

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&lt;p&gt;The freeze-thaw damage process in tunnels located in seasonal frozen regions involves a complex thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) coupling mechanism. Understanding this mechanism is crucial for developing effective strategies to prevent freeze-thaw damage. This paper investigates THM variations in tunnels subjected to cyclic freeze-thaw conditions throughout their life cycle. First, a practical THM coupling model, incorporating freeze-thaw damage in the surrounding rock, was developed. Second, the evolution of temperature, water seepage, and stress fields within the tunnel was analyz
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Song, Fengmei. "Predicting the Effect of Soil Seasonal Change on Stress Corrosion Cracking Susceptibility of Buried Pipelines at High pH." In CORROSION 2010. NACE International, 2010. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2010-10066.

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Abstract Soil seasonal change is believed to be one of the major factors that contribute to pipeline high pH stress corrosion cracking (SCC), although the specific role and mechanisms of the soil seasonal change in the pipeline high pH SCC susceptibility are not clearly understood. This study is aimed at investigating this role and the mechanisms of the soil seasonal change through mathematical modeling. The temporal and spatial variation, with soil seasonal change, of the solution chemistry and the pipe steel potential and corrosion rate in a coating disbonded region is explored. With the pip
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Gadala, Ibrahim, Magd Abdel Wahab, and Akram Alfantazi. "A Finite Element Model of the External Corrosion of Buried Pipeline Steel under the Combined Influence of Heat Transfer, Cathodic Protection, and Oxygen Diffusion in Surrounding Soil." In CORROSION 2016. NACE International, 2016. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2016-07012.

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Abstract This work presents a numerical model of the coupled interactions between temperature profile, electrolytic potential drop, and steady-state oxygen concentration gradient in soils surrounding buried pipelines. Three different soil types are considered (sand, clay, and peat), with porosity ratios varying between 0.4 and 0.8. Two volumetric wetness ratios are simulated for each soil type, representing moisture changes during successive soil drying-wetting cycles. The motivation behind this study is to model the interdependencies of heat transfer, cathodic protection, and oxygen diffusion
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Мордвин, Е. Ю., А. А. Лагутин, and Н. В. Волков. "YEARLY CYCLE AND INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY OF CARBON DIOXIDE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE OF SOUTH WESTERN SIBERIA BASED ON GEOS-CHEM CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL DATA." In XXX Юбилейный Международный симпозиум Оптика атмосферы и океана. Физика атмосферы. Crossref, 2024. https://doi.org/10.56820/oao30d26.

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В работе представлены первые результаты моделирования полного содержания углекислого газа CO2 в атмосфере юга Западной Сибири (48-53 с.ш., 60-90 в.д.) в 2015-2022 гг. Информационной основой проведенного исследования служат результаты моделирования глобальной химической транспортной модели GEOS-CHEM. Показано, что скорость роста полного содержания CO2 в атмосфере исследуемого региона ~ 2.4 млн-1 /год, а сезонные вариации ~ 9.8 млн-1. Полученный результат хорошо согласуется с наблюдениями карбоновой обсерватории OCO-2, по данным которой тренд ~ 2.5 млн-1 /год, а сезонные вариации ~ 9.1 млн-1. Th
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Hilleman, Douglas, John M. Lindsay, and Tim Hinson. "Gainesville Regional Utilities Kelly Plant Asset Management With Cycling Operation." In ASME 2015 Power Conference collocated with the ASME 2015 9th International Conference on Energy Sustainability, the ASME 2015 13th International Conference on Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology, and the ASME 2015 Nuclear Forum. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/power2015-49148.

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Gainesville Regional Utilities (GRU) is a fully vertically-integrated utility with electric power generation, transmission, and distribution system owned by the City of Gainesville, FL. We have two primary generating plant sites: Deerhaven with two conventional coal-fired steam units (DH1 and DH2) and John R. Kelly (JCC1) combined-cycle Unit 1. Kelly Station (the focus of this study) is located in southeast Gainesville near the downtown business district. It has one - 120 MW combined-cycle unit (JCC1) in 1 × 1 configuration, consisting of: one GE Frame 7E combustion turbine (dual fuel), one Ap
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Milton, J. W. "A Review of Seasonal Dispatch Modeling Methods." In ASME 2005 Power Conference. ASMEDC, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pwr2005-50087.

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Rankine cycle power plants efficiency varies across the seasons due to changes in ambient air and cooling water temperatures. The size of this variation is influenced by the unit design. Test data collected on units to develop economic dispatch (input output) models produces an “as found” result. This result includes current imposed season influence and mechanical condition of the unit. With additional steps, these models can be adjusted to account for and quantify the seasonal efficiency changes. This paper will review the various methods used to account for these changes and evaluate the pro
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Pryor, Owen, J. Jeffrey Moore, Ian Cormier, Jeremy Fetvedt, Maksym Burlaka, and Vlad Goldenberg. "Techno-Economic Performance of the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle With Oxygen Storage." In ASME Turbo Expo 2023: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2023-103079.

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Abstract A model was developed to predict the operation and performance for liquid oxygen storage coupled with the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle (AFC), a direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide cycle. The cycle uses liquid oxygen to time-shift the major parasitic of the cycle, the air separation unit (ASU), to minimize the economic costs of air separation. This paper presents significant improvements to the model and the techno-economic analysis in the forms of improvements to the assumptions, an exploration of different ASU architectures, potential improvements to the AFC for coupling with liquid oxy
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Perić, Dunja, and Justin Yenne. "Use of digital imaging to evaluate the effectiveness of EPS geofoam inclusions in alleviating integral bridge approach settlements." In 8th International Conference on Road and Rail Infrastructure. University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.5592/co/cetra.2024.1669.

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Absence of deck expansion joints in integral abutment bridges (IABs) offers multiple benefits that encompass increased redundancy, enhanced resilience, and diminished construction and lifetime maintenance costs. IAB's deck and girders undergo cyclic seasonal expansions and contractions accompanied with abutment translation and rotation that results in a near surface granular backfill collapse and creation of a void behind the abutmtment. The resulting loss of soil support leads to approach slab distress and severe approach slab settlement that often occurs shortly after the completion of const
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Ma, Jungmok, and Harrison M. Kim. "Predictive Usage Mining for Sustainability of Complex Systems Design." In ASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2014-34755.

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A new perspective of dynamic LCA (life cycle assessment) is proposed with the predictive usage mining for sustainability (PUMS) algorithm. By defining usage patterns as trend, seasonality, and level from a time series of usage information, predictive LCA can be conducted in a real time horizon. Large-scale sensor data of product operation is analyzed in order to mine usage patterns and build a usage model for LCA. The PUMS algorithm consists of handling missing and abnormal values, seasonal period analysis, segmentation analysis, time series analysis, and predictive LCA. A newly developed segm
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Reports on the topic "Model Seasonal Cycle"

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Miron, Jeffrey. Seasonal Fluctuations and the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Model of Consumption. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1845.

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Schwinger, Jörg. Report on modifications of ocean carbon cycle feedbacks under ocean alkalinization. OceanNETs, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3289/oceannets_d4.2.

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Ocean Alkalinization deliberately modifies the chemistry of the surface ocean to enhance the uptake of atmospheric CO2. Here we quantify, using idealized Earth system model (ESM) simulations, changes in carbon cycle feedbacks and in the seasonal cycle of the surface ocean carbonate system due to ocean alkalinization. We find that both, carbon-concentration and carbon climate feedback, are enhanced due to the increased sensitivity of the carbonate system to changes in atmospheric CO2 and changes in temperature. While the temperature effect, which decreases ocean carbon uptake, remains small in
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Xavier, Prince, Martin Willett, Tim Graham, et al. Assessment of the Met Office Global Coupled model version 4 (GC4) configurations. Met Office, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.62998/uzui3766.

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The Global Coupled model version 4 (GC4) is an upgraded configuration of the MetUM system, building upon its predecessor, GC3.0/3.1. It incorporates various improvements and changes in the atmospheric and land components (Global Atmosphere 8 and Global Land 9 - GA8GL9) while keeping the ocean component (Global Ocean 6 - GO6) unchanged, except for minor bug fixes. The GC4 model introduces several enhancements, such as the drag package for land surface and hydrology, improvements in radiation and large-scale precipitation parametrisations, advancements in the boundary layer and convection repres
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VanderGheynst, Jean, Michael Raviv, Jim Stapleton, and Dror Minz. Effect of Combined Solarization and in Solum Compost Decomposition on Soil Health. United States Department of Agriculture, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2013.7594388.bard.

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In soil solarization, moist soil is covered with a transparent plastic film, resulting in passive solar heating which inactivates soil-borne pathogen/weed propagules. Although solarization is an effective alternative to soil fumigation and chemical pesticide application, it is not widely used due to its long duration, which coincides with the growing season of some crops, thereby causing a loss of income. The basis of this project was that solarization of amended soil would be utilized more widely if growers could adopt the practice without losing production. In this research we examined three
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Zhang, Caiyun, David Brodylo, Mizanur Rahman, Md Atiqur Rahman, Thomas Douglas, and Xavier Comas. Using an object-based machine learning ensemble approach to upscale evapotranspiration measured from eddy covariance towers in a subtropical wetland. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/48056.

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Accurate prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) in wetlands is critical for understanding the coupling effects of water, carbon, and energy cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Multiple years of eddy covariance (EC) tower ET measurements at five representative wetland ecosystems in the subtropical Big Cypress National Preserve (BCNP), Florida (USA) provide a unique opportunity to assess the performance of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET operational product MOD16A2 and upscale tower measured ET to generate local/regional wetland ET maps. We developed an object-based mac
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Samach, Alon, Douglas Cook, and Jaime Kigel. Molecular mechanisms of plant reproductive adaptation to aridity gradients. United States Department of Agriculture, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2008.7696513.bard.

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Annual plants have developed a range of different mechanisms to avoid flowering (exposure of reproductive organs to the environment) under adverse environmental conditions. Seasonal environmental events such as gradual changes in day length and temperature affect the timing of transition to flowering in many annual and perennial plants. Research in Arabidopsis and additional species suggest that some environmental signals converge on transcriptional regulation of common floral integrators such as FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT). Here we studied environmental induction of flowering in the model legume M
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Day, Christopher M., Hiromal Premachandra, and Darcy M. Bullock. Characterizing the Impacts of Phasing, Environment, and Temporal Factors on Pedestrian Demand at Traffic Signals. Purdue University, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317352.

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There is a need for more and higher quality data on pedestrian demand patterns for a number of applications in planning, transportation engineering, public health, and other areas. It is particularly desirable to better characterize the influence of daily, weekly, and annual variations; the impact of weather and special events; and the effects of changes in pedestrian phasing. This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for quantifying the relative demand for pedestrian service at a signalized intersection by using the percent of signal cycles per hour in which the pedestrian phase was
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