Academic literature on the topic 'Modèle DCC-GARCH'
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Modèle DCC-GARCH"
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Tabiš, Peter. "Dynamické modely oceňovania aktiv." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-199290.
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Field of examination is theoretical and empirical review of dynamic CAPM models that assume non constant volatility and correlation. In other words time evolution is considered in estimation process. As theoretical basement is recommended to be R. Engle's (Dynamic Conditional Beta) research and other sources.
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Lemand, (suleimann) Ryan. "Indices boursiers internationaux et la crise des nouvelles technologies : approches switching et DCC-MVGARCH." Phd thesis, École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan, 2003. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00287357.
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Depuis la crise boursi`ere du secteur des Nouvelles Technologies en 2000 et la croissance très grande de la volatilité des actifs boursiers par rapport à ce qui a précédé cette année, la modélisation de cette volatilité et son effet de contagion à travers les marchés boursiers dans le monde, a suscité beaucoup de discussions et de recherches. Nous nous intéressons par conséquent, à la modélisation de la volatilité de trois indices technologiques : NASDAQ-100, IT.CAC et NEMAX et cinq indices globaux : Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor 500, NASDAQ Composite, DAX et CAC40, afin de vérifier si le risque d'investissement, mesuré par la valeur à risque (VaR) a changé suite à la crise technologique et afin de montrer que la crise technologique, parmi toutes les crises boursières vécues, est la crise qui a le plus affecté les marchés boursiers à travers le monde. Notre calcul de la VaR exige une modélisation précise de la volatilité des séries étudiées et l'identification de la présence de corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques ou non. Nous utilisons différents modèles pour modéliser la volatilité des indices étudiés, notamment différents modèles à changements de régimes (SWARCH, SWGARCH et MSVECM) et le modèle GARCH multivari é à corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques (DCC-MVGARCH). Nous utilisons les modèles à changements de régimes et les modèles VAR afin de montrer l'existence d'effets de co-mouvements et de contagion entre les indices étudiés et le modèle DCC-MVGARCH afin de montrer l'effet de la crise technologique sur l'augmentation de la volatilité des marchés boursiers et la présence de corrélations dynamiques qui les lient, ainsi que pour le calcul de la VaR. Nous comparons à la fin les VaR calculées par le modèle DCC-MVGARCH avec des VaR calculée par la méthode non-paramétrique des copules.
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Lönnquist, Anders. "The economic relevance of multivariate GARCH models : CCC, DCC, VCC MGARCH(1,1) covariance predictions for the use in global minimum variance portfolios." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-67989.
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Noureldin, Diaa. "Essays on multivariate volatility and dependence models for financial time series." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:fdf82d35-a5e7-4295-b7bf-c7009cad7b56.
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This thesis investigates the modelling and forecasting of multivariate volatility and dependence in financial time series. The first paper proposes a new model for forecasting changes in the term structure (TS) of interest rates. Using the level, slope and curvature factors of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, we build a time-varying copula model for the factor dynamics allowing for departure from the normality assumption typically adopted in TS models. To induce relative immunity to structural breaks, we model and forecast the factor changes and not the factor levels. Using US Treasury yields for the period 1986:3-2010:12, our in-sample analysis indicates model stability and we show statistically significant gains due to allowing for a time-varying dependence structure which permits joint extreme factor movements. Our out-of-sample analysis indicates the model's superior ability to forecast the conditional mean in terms of root mean square error reductions and directional forecast accuracy. The forecast gains are stronger during the recent financial crisis. We also conduct out-of-sample model evaluation based on conditional density forecasts. The second paper introduces a new class of multivariate volatility models that utilizes high-frequency data. We discuss the models' dynamics and highlight their differences from multivariate GARCH models. We also discuss their covariance targeting specification and provide closed-form formulas for multi-step forecasts. Estimation and inference strategies are outlined. Empirical results suggest that the HEAVY model outperforms the multivariate GARCH model out-of-sample, with the gains being particularly significant at short forecast horizons. Forecast gains are obtained for both forecast variances and correlations. The third paper introduces a new class of multivariate volatility models which is easy to estimate using covariance targeting. The key idea is to rotate the returns and then fit them using a BEKK model for the conditional covariance with the identity matrix as the covariance target. The extension to DCC type models is given, enriching this class. We focus primarily on diagonal BEKK and DCC models, and a related parameterisation which imposes common persistence on all elements of the conditional covariance matrix. Inference for these models is computationally attractive, and the asymptotics is standard. The techniques are illustrated using recent data on the S&P 500 ETF and some DJIA stocks, including comparisons to the related orthogonal GARCH models.
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Malongo, Elouaï Hassan. "Couverture du risque de volatilité et de corrélation dans un portefeuille." Thesis, Paris 9, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA090005.
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Ce travail est centré sur la modélisation des dynamiques de volatilités et de corrélations entre rendements d'actifs financiers. Après une présentation de la littérature relative aux modèles Garch univariés et multivariés, l'auteur établit des résultats d'existence et d'unicité pour les solutions stationnaires des modèles de corrélations dynamiques de type DCC (Engle, 2002). Il étend ensuite cette classe de modèles en incluant les volatilités instantanées et des probabilités de changement de régime dans la dynamique des corrélations. Les nouveaux modèles sont évalués empiriquement sur un portefeuille d'indices MSCI. Des tests formels montrent que certaines de ces nouvelles spécifications améliorent le pouvoir prédictif de la matrice de covariance des rendements et s'avèreraient utiles en gestion de portefeuille. Enfin, se focalisant désormais sur le risque de volatilité, l'auteur montre que des stratégies de couvertures des principaux indices actions Européen à partir d'indices de volatilité implicite (VIX, VSTOXX) sont pertinentes et permettent à la fois de couvrir et réduire le risque action d'un portefeuilleThis work focuses on modeling the dynamics of volatilities and correlations between financial assets returns. After a literature review of univariate and multivariate GARCH-type models, the author establishes results for the existence and uniqueness of stationary solutions of dynamic correlations models (DCC model, Engle 2002). He then extends this class of models including instantaneous volatility and probability of regime changes in the dynamics of correlations. The new models are empirically evaluated on a MSCI portfolio. Formal tests have shown that some of these new specifications improve predictive power of the returns covariance matrix that would be useful in portfolio management. Finally, focusing now on the volatility risk, the author shows that hedging strategies of main European equity indices based on implied volatility indices (VIX, VSTOXX) are relevant and allow to both hedge and reduce the equity risk of a portfolio
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Rezaee, Amir. "Le marché des obligations privées à la bourse de Paris au 19ème siècle : performance et efficience d'un marché obligataire." Thesis, Orléans, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010ORLE0505/document.
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L’objet de cette thèse est d’analyser d’un point de vue financier la cotation et le comportement des obligations privées à la Bourse de Paris à partir de 1838 jusqu’à l’éclatement de la Première Guerre mondiale. Cette étude est divisée en deux parties : La première relate la création et l’évolution des émissions obligataires (marché primaire) durant le 19ème siècle. On s’intéresse aux grands émetteurs qui ont su se servir le mieux des obligations et les raisons de leur succès. Dans cette partie seront également traitées les caractéristiques techniques et les innovations financières des émissions. La deuxième partie tente d’analyser le comportement boursier des obligations(marché secondaire).Pour cela un indice général des cours d’obligations durant le 19ème siècle a été calculé. En se basant sur cet indice nous mettons en lumière pour la première fois, les caractéristiques de ce marché (rentabilité, volatilité, …). Cela permet de comparer nos résultats avec ceux des études antérieures sur les marchés d’actions et de la rente au 19ème siècle. Cet indice permet également de tester les diverses hypothèses financières relevant de la théorie financière moderne (efficience informationnelle, cointégration avec des autres compartiments du marché,…)This thesis studies the French corporate bonds market during the 19th century. Despite its importance the performance of the corporate bonds quoted on the Paris Bourse has never been studied. In order to analyse this market, a price index of the corporate bond market has been created by using modern techniques. The creation of the index was made possible thanks to an original database created by new data, which has never been used before and collected directly from the publications of the market authorities during the nineteenth century. Thanks to the index, the risk and the return of the market have been measured. Then we compared the performance of the French corporate bonds with those of the stocks and government bonds; the results of thecomparisons are interesting. This study demonstrates that the corporate bonds are the least risky securities and their rate of return is higher than the government bonds during the nineteenth century. Some econometric tests have also been used to compare the efficiency of bond market with the other segments of the Paris Bourse
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Sengsay, Julie Viengsavanh. "La crise financière de 2008 : la volatilité des marchés boursiers canadien et américain." Mémoire, 2013. http://www.archipel.uqam.ca/5455/1/M12950.pdf.
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Ce mémoire s'intéresse à la transmission de la volatilité des marchés financiers. Les marchés canadien et américain sont étudiés durant la crise financière de 2008. Afin d'analyser ces transmissions, nous utilisons le modèle d'hétéroscédasticité conditionnelle autorégressive généralisé à corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques d'Engle (2002). La période analysée est du 1er janvier 2005 au 31 juillet 2010. Cette période se divise en deux sous-périodes, soit une période de calme et une période de crise. La période de calme est du 1er janvier 2005 au 8 septembre 2008 et la période de crise est du 9 septembre 2008 au 31 juillet 2010. Les résultats obtenus indiquent qu'il y a eu une transmission de volatilité des États-Unis vers le Canada durant cette crise. Nous avons aussi trouvé une augmentation des corrélations conditionnelles dynamiques entre le Canada et les États-Unis en temps de crise.
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MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : GARCH multivarié, DCC-GARCH, crise financière, volatilité.
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Chen, Nash, and 陳昱宏. "Optimal Hedge Ratio of Commodity Futures Using Bivariate DCC-CARR and DCC-GARCH Models." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83027752092707981578.
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碩士國立中央大學
財務金融研究所
93
When traders participate in both cash and futures markets they must choose a hedging strategy that reflects their individual goals and attitudes towards risk. At the same time, optimal portfolio management depends not only on the fundamental and technological analysis in maximizing returns, but it also encompasses diversification techniques in (un)systematic risk. Nevertheless, systematic risk can be effectively eliminated by futures contracts. In this thesis, we focus on diversification to minimize the portfolio variance and will consider the minimum-variance hedge strategy because the benefits of sophisticated estimation techniques of the hedge ratio are small (Lence, 1995b). At first, we take the commodity prices, and then compute the Optimal Hedge Ratios (OHRs) between spot and futures using different methods. Here, the hedge ratios are used to hedge the spot price risk in simulations of investment. In analysis, we use the Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Conditional Autoregressive Range (DCC-CARR) model proposed by Chou et. al. (2005) to compute the OHRs. Other alternative methods used for comparison include the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator which provides an estimate for the minimum-variance hedge ratio, Constant Conditional Correlation –Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and CARR (CCC-GARCH and CCC-CARR) models, and DCC-GARCH model. Different methods used to compute hedge ratios are compared with each other in their performance of variance-reduction. While the spot price risk is hedged by their corresponding futures, within-sample hedge, the results show that the DCC-CARR model performs better than the other hedge models for the selected commodities with the exception of gold. For an out-sample hedge in one-period it supports that the DCC-CARR model is the best model for any commodity. But, in other period, the results are mixed because of the trading noises. In conclusion, we suggest that the DCC-CARR model is the better model for investors to find the minimum-variance of a portfolio.
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Jílek, Jiří. "Evropské realitní investiční trusty: Analýza korelace za použití DCC- GARCH modelu." Master's thesis, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-307443.
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Bibliographic Record JÍLEK, Jiří. European Real Estate Investment Trusts: Analyzing Correlation with a DCC- GARCH Model. Prague, 2012. 50 p. Master thesis (Mgr.) Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies. Supervisor: Tomáš Jandík MA MSc MRICS. Abstract The main goal of this thesis is to study the interdependencies between returns of European real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other investment asset classes such as European equities, government bonds and commodities. The thesis is divided into two parts: in the first part, we describe the necessary background that led to the emergence of first REIT structures and also provide an overview of the European REITs market. In the second part, we apply the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model to examine correlations between the above mentioned asset classes. The general understanding of real estate is that it provides diversification benefits to a diversified portfolio. However, our results suggest that returns of European REITs and stocks show a relatively high correlation and more importantly, the correlation increases in time. These findings have significant implications for investors and portfolio managers who seek protection for their portfolios in time of market downturns. Our results...
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Morais, Inês Filipa Vitorino de. "O contágio financeiro nos países do grupo Visegrád: as crises entre 2000 e 2014." Master's thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11240.
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Códigos JEL: E44, G01 e G15Com a realização deste estudo pretende-se analisar a relação que existe entre os mercados acionistas dos países do grupo Visegrád, ao longo dos últimos catorze anos, tendo como objetivo investigar a existência de contágio financeiro entre os vários mercados acionistas, para os vários períodos de crise identificados. Adicionalmente, também se estudam as relações entre o índice bolsista de referência para os EUA e cada um dos membros do grupo Visegrád. A análise é concretizada com recurso à estimação de modelos econométricos DCC-GARCH, utilizando os retornos diários dos índices acionistas para os EUA, a Eslováquia, a Hungria, a Polónia e a República Checa, para o período compreendido entre janeiro de 2000 e dezembro de 2014. Os resultados da análise, para as hipóteses consideradas, sugerem ter existido contágio financeiro em, praticamente, todas as crises identificadas como intrínsecas a cada país e, também, contágio mas induzido por eventos externos durante a Crise do Subprime e na Crise da Dívida Soberana. Relativamente à relação entre o mercado acionista norte-americano e cada um dos membros do grupo Visegrád verifica-se que existiu contágio durante as principais crises financeiras com origem na grande potência mundial (Crise da Bolha dot.com, do Subprime e da Dívida Soberana). Note-se que para nenhum caso se registou evidência de contágio durante a crise financeira de 2009.
This dissertation focuses on the analyses of co-movements between stock markets of countries of the Visegrád group, for the last fourteen years. The objective is to investigate the existence of financial contagion between the stock markets in different identified crises periods. In addition, this research also studies the relation between the reference stock index for the USA and each member of the Visegrád group. The analyses is based on the estimation of DCC-GARCH models, using data of daily stock returns for the USA, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, for the period between January 2000 and December 2014. The obtained results suggest the existence of contagion at almost all identified crises intrinsic to each country and contagion by external event during the subprime and sovereign debt crises. Relatively to the co-movements between the USA stock index and each Visegrád country, the results also suggest the existence of contagion during the main financial crises from the USA (dot.com, subprime and sovereign debt crises). There is, however, no evidence of contagion during the 2009 financial crisis.
Book chapters on the topic "Modèle DCC-GARCH"
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Huang, Yiyu, Wenjing Su, and Xiang Li. "Comparison of BEKK GARCH and DCC GARCH Models: An Empirical Study." In Advanced Data Mining and Applications, 99–110. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-17313-4_10.
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Dimitriou, Dimitrios, and Theodore Simos. "Are Exotic Assets Contagious?" In Recent Advances and Applications in Alternative Investments, 102–19. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2436-7.ch005.
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In this study, authors investigate the possibility of contagion/safe haven effects during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-2009 for two exotic assets: rare coins and wine lvx50. The data sample is monthly comprising a rare coins and wine lvx50 indices, as well as MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital Index) World financial index as a benchmark for world financial sector, spanning from 2000 until 2016. According to Baur and Lucey (2010) an asset may be characterized as safe haven, by the following definition: “A safe haven is defined as an asset that is uncorrelated or negatively correlated with another asset or portfolio in times of market stress or turmoil”. Employing a bivariate GARCH (1,1)-DCC model, authors uncover significant evidence of contagion effects among the MSCI World Financial and wine lvx50, while the pair MSCI World Financial and rare coins show a safe haven behaviour. These findings confirm a specific pattern of contagious and safe haven behaviors that provide important implications for international investors.
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Yildirim, Ecenur Ugurlu. "Globalization of Stock Market, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Risk." In Handbook of Research on Institutional, Economic, and Social Impacts of Globalization and Liberalization, 157–68. IGI Global, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-4459-4.ch009.
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Although the significance of the foreign investors constructing the significant magnitude of GDP increases for the emerging markets, their equity markets' attractiveness is affected by their vulnerability to geopolitical risk. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the effect of the stock market globalization on the correlation between economic growth and geopolitical risk in Brazil. After the dynamic correlation between economic growth and the geopolitical risk in Brazil is obtained by DCC-GARCH(1,1) methodology, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is employed to examine the asymmetric relationship among variables. The findings demonstrate while the changes in the globalization of the stock market decrease the connection between economic growth and geopolitical risk in the long-run, the positive changes in the participation of foreign investors make economic growth and geopolitical risk more connected the in short-run. Moreover, this impact is asymmetric. This chapter provides valuable implications for international investors and policymakers.
Conference papers on the topic "Modèle DCC-GARCH"
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Kuzu, Serdar, and H. Muhammet Kekeç. "Analysis of the Effect of Weighted Average Cost of the CBRT Funding on BIST100 Index, BISTXBANK Index and Exchange Rate." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01884.
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This study is found to find out how Weighted Average Funding Cost, which is new policy tool implemented by The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) in 2011, weighted average funding cost -aiming at removing the ambiguities seen in the financial variables and minimizing the effect of capital movements on these variables is reviewed.
In this study, the effects of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on BIST100 index, BISTXBANK index and exchange rate are tested by Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF), ML-GARCH and DCC GARCH models based on ENGLE, R.F. and SHEPPARD, K. (2001).
According to the findings obtained, it is concluded that the decisions of the Weighted Average Funding Cost related to Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBTR) lending and borrowing interest rates are direct effective on BIST100 index, BISTXBANK index but indirect with Exchange rate.