Dissertations / Theses: 'Modele financier'

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ARENAS, SANGUINETI CLAUDIO. "Specification et estimation du bloc financier d'un modele macroeconomique trimestriel." Paris 1, 1986. http://www.theses.fr/1986PA010066.

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Dans le cadre de la construction d'un modele trimestriel d'inspiration neokeynesienne a deux produits et deux branches, pour la france, ce travail a trait aux interactions des variables financieres dans l'ensemble du modele et entre elles. Le bloc financier comporte six agents : banques, autorites de tutelle, tresor, entreprises, menages et reste du monde, qui negocient dans des marches, les huit actifs financiers : reserves officielles de change, liquidites, credit, concours au tresor, titres, reserves obligatoires, reserves techniques d'assurance. Ces marches et ces agents sont relies par quarante-cinq equations, reproduisant le cadre comptable associe, donne par le tableau des operations financieres. En outre, des variables de taux d'interet sont reliees aux fluctuations des variables financieres par d'equations de comportement des agents. Ce modele propose l'incorporation de plusieurs effets des variables des blocs reels, comme l'anticipation des prix ou les taux d'accumulation de capital, dans la determination des variables financieres, comme les encaisses monetaires et les en cours de credit. Ce modele n'incorpore pas la modelisation de la fixation du taux de change, qui reste exogene. Les performances du modele sont comparees a d'autres modeles utilises sur des simulations retrospectives. Des variantes et des perturbations sont analysees.

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Clark, Ephraim. "L'application de l'analyse financiere au "risque-pays"." Paris 1, 1986. http://www.theses.fr/1986PA010032.

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Cette these vise l'application de l'analyse financiere en ce qui concerne l'evaluation des actifs financiers et le cout du capital, au probleme du risque-pays. Premierement, un systeme est developpe qui permet la determination de la valeur de marche d'une economie nationale a travers le fonctionnement des marches financiers internationaux et la contrainte de la balance des paiements. Deuxiemement, une methodologie permettant la determination de la valeur de marche d'une economie nationale est presentee. Ensuite, ces informations sont appliquees aux modeles financiers (medaf, mepo) afin de determiner le cout de chaque type d'investissement (dette, investissement direct, auto-investissement). Finalement, le systeme et la methodologie sont appliques a trois pays, l'argentine, le bresil, et le mexique, avec des tests statistiques
This thesis aims at applying the financial theory of the cost of capital and the evaluation of the price of financial assets to the problem of country risk analysis. First, a system is developed which enables the market value of a national economy to be determined through the function of the international financial markets and the balance of payments constraint. Second, a methodologie is presented which permits a practical application of the system developed in the first two chapters. The resulting information is then applied to the framework of the capital asset pricing model and the options pricing model in order to determine the cost of each type of financing to a national economy. Finally, the system and the methodologie are applied and tested for three countries: argentina, brasil and mexico

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Kobb, Taoufik. "La décentralisation financière au Maroc : vers un nouveau modèle du cadre financier territorial." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01D072.

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La dynamique actuelle encadrée par la constitution de 2011 et les lois organiques de 2015 interpelle notre réflexion autour d'un nouveau cadre des relations financières entre l'État et les collectivités territoriales, dans le cadre d'une cohérence globale de notre système financier public. Cette dynamique réformatrice, ambitionne une nouvelle appréhension de l'organisation territoriale de notre pays, un nouvel encadrement des rapports entretenus entre le pouvoir central et les acteurs territoriaux et un basculement de la gestion locale vers une culture de performance des politiques publiques territoriales. Au travers ces diverses configurations, le pouvoir financier des collectivités territoriales, représente un pilier central de la réforme territoriale, du fait qu'il participe au renforcement des ressources financières des acteurs territoriaux, à l'amélioration de leurs compétences financières et à la modernisation du cadre financier et comptable local, et partant, à la modernisation de la gestion publique locale en générale. Notre recherche se propose d'apporter des propositions autour d'un nouveau modèle financier territoriale, en faveur d'une gestion performante des deniers publics, d'une meilleure harmonie de la décision politique territoriale et d'une convergence des politiques publiques territoriales au service des territoires et des citoyens. Cette démarche doit porter sur une meilleure articulation entre les compétences locales et les ressources financières, une répartition des charges entre l'État et les collectivités territoriales, un renforcement du pouvoir financier local et partant un repositionnement des compétences financières locales
The current dynamics framed by the 2011 constitution and the organic laws of 2015 challenge our thinking around a new framework of financial relations between the state and local authorities, within the framework of a global coherence of our public financial system. This reformist dynamic aims at a new apprehension of the territorial organization of our country, a new framework of the relations maintained between the central power and the territorial actors and a shift from the local management towards a culture of performance of the territorial public policies. Through these various configurations, the financial skills of the local authorities, represent a central pillar of the territorial reform, because it participates in the reinforcement of the financial resources of the territorial actors, the improvement of their financial competences and the modernization of the local financial and accounting framework, and hence the modernization of local public management in general. Our research proposes to develop a new territorial financial model, in favor of an efficient management of the public funds, a better harmony of the territorial political decision and a convergence of the territorial public policies in the service territories and citizens. This approach should focus on a better link between local skills and financial resources, a division of responsibilities between the state and local authorities, a strengthening of local financial power and thus a repositioning of local financial skills

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Carin, Yann. "La faillite des clubs français de football : un secteur spécifique." Thesis, Limoges, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LIMO0040/document.

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Le football européen en général et le football français en particulier font état de difficultés financières et de faillites récurrentes de clubs professionnels. Sur la seule période de 1975 à 2018, 81 clubs français de football engagés dans les championnats des quatre premières divisions ont connu une faillite. Le sujet de la faillite d’entreprises a été largement traité pour les secteurs courants de l’économie. De nombreuses recherches se sont attachées à construire des modèles de prédiction, puis progressivement d’autres travaux se sont concentrés sur le processus et les différentes trajectoires d’entrée dans la faillite.Les seuls travaux menés sur le football français ont appliqué le modèle de prédiction d’Altman (2000) sur les clubs de Ligue 1 et de Ligue 2 et ont cherché à identifier les facteurs de la défaillance. Un accès privilégié aux données financières et aux parties prenantes du football français nous a permis de construire un nouveau modèle de prédiction de faillite adapté aux spécificités du football que nous avons ensuite complété par uneanalyse qualitative proposant une hiérarchisation des facteurs explicatifs et leur enchaînement au sein d’un processus dynamique. Notre thèse conclue à l’impossibilité de généraliser un modèle de prédiction des faillites à l’ensemble des clubs des quatre premières divisions françaises. Néanmoins, les améliorations apportées par notre propre modèle permettent de meilleurs taux de classement entre les clubs défaillants et les clubs sains des trois premières divisions. Nous montrons également qu’au-delà d’un score ponctuel obtenu dans le modèle, son évolution dans le temps est un signal important pour identifier et anticiper la dégradation de la situation financière de chaque club. Les clubs ne passent pas d’un état de bonne santé à leur faillite de manière soudaine. Des entretiens menés avec des dirigeants, des actionnaires, des directeurs financiers et des membres de la Direction Nationale du Contrôle de Gestion nous ont permis de modéliser la dynamique globale d’entrée dans la faillite des clubs. Sur ces bases, nous proposons une nouvelle approche de la régulation financière pour mieux prévenir la faillite des clubs de football
French football and European football in general regularly report of financial difficulties and even bankruptcies of professional clubs. Between 1975 and 2018, 81 clubs of the four premier French divisions went bankrupt. The issue of bankruptcy in business has been widely studied in the main sectors of the economy. Various studies have endeavoured to build prediction models and subsequently, other work has investigated the process and different ways of going bankrupt.The only work which investigated French football applied Altman’s prediction model (2000) to Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 clubs and aimed to identify the factors which lead to bankruptcy. Privileged access to financial information concerning these clubs and to people who have important roles in this domain allowed us tocreate a new model to predict bankruptcy which is adapted to the particularities of professional football. We then completed our study with qualitative analysis of the data and a proposal of a hierarchy of the explicative factors and their sequencing in what is a dynamic process. Our thesis concludes by stating that it is impossible to generalise a bankruptcy prediction model for all theclubs in each of the top four French divisions. Nevertheless, the improvements brought forward by our model allows for a more accurate division of the financially healthy and unhealthy clubs in the first three divisions. Equally, we show that beyond the initial score a club achieves with our model, the evolution of this score over time in an important indicator to help clubs anticipate a worsening financial situation; clubs do not suddenly go from a state of financial solvency to one of bankruptcy. Interviews undertaken with the executives, stakeholders and financial directors of clubs as well as those carried out with members of the Direction Nationale du Contrôle de Gestion (DNCG) allowed us to model the global dynamic for clubs who go bankrupt. From there, we propose a new approach to financial regulation to avoid more football clubs going bankrupt

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Intrator, Hélène. "Recherche sur la volatilité et l'instabilité financières." Paris 1, 1992. http://www.theses.fr/1992PA010003.

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La volatilité est imprévisible et suppose le risque. Elle suggère l'incontrôlabilité des évolutions et est liée à la façon dont le système s'adapte, réagit immédiatement à l'incertitude. Elle est permanente dans la mesure où l'évolution des variables n'a jamais cessé d'être plus ou moins volatiles depuis les années quatre-vingt. L'instabilité suppose plutôt une interprétation dynamique des systèmes, le passage d'un équilibre à un autre. La volatilité n'est pas forcément une preuve d'instabilité, elle peut être considérée comme un phénomène stable au système financier. La théorie du chaos justifie cette position. L'objectif de cette thèse aura été de démontrer que la volatilité financière remet en cause les théories existantes, en ce qu'elles nient l'incertitude des systèmes. La démonstration de cette idée est appuyée par des méthodes synthétisant l'information (telle l'analyse en composantes principales) et des techniques de modélisation conditionnelle (A. P. C. H. ). Les conséquences de la volatilité sur les agents économiques font l'objet d'une étude approfondie. Les grandes entreprises sont les premieres bénéficiaires, mais le nouveau comportement patrimonial des ménages relativise considérablement la baisse du taux d'épargne. Enfin, la coordination des politiques et l'intégration (la complémentarité) des marchés, tentent d'enrayer la volatilité sur le plan international
Defined as unpredictable, also supposing risk, volatility suggests the incontrolability of developments, and is linked to the way the system fits, or instantly reacts to uncertainty. A permanent state seems to be its other characteristic. Since the 1980's, it has never kept being more or less present on the evolution of variables. Instability is refering to a dynamic interpretation of systems, passing from a balance to an other one. Far from being but an evidence of instability, volatility can be regarded as a stable phenomenon within the financial system. The chaos theory argues for this view. The aim of this thesis will have been to demonstrate that financial volatility calls into questions the existing theories which are denying the uncertainty of systems. The demonstration of this idea is laying on information resuming methods (such as principal component analysis), and conditional modeling techniques (as A. R. C. H. Models). Consequences of volatility upon economical agents are carefully studied. The main beneficiaries are the big firms, but the new patrimonial behaviour of households is making the decrease in the saving rate, significantly relative. At last, the coordination of policies and the integration of markets are trying to check volatility at an international level

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Desban, Marc. "Modèles d'évaluation des actifs financiers, anomalies et notation extra-financière." Thesis, Paris Est, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019PESC0106.

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Les prix des actifs financiers reflètent-ils toutes les informations antérieures ainsi que toutes celles qui sont publiques ? La théorie de l’efficience informationnelle, dans une forme semi-forte (Fama, 1970), stipule que les prix des titres représentent, à tout moment, leurs valeurs intrinsèques respectives. Tester cette théorie impose de recourir à un modèle de formation des prix, le MÉDAF. Seulement, ce modèle, dans un contexte empirique, n'explique pas des portions significatives des rentabilités : les anomalies. Que conclure ? S’agit-il d’un modèle mal spécifié ou bien d’un modèle valide qui, dans ses échecs, indique que les marchés sont inefficients ? Fama et French (1992) avancent que le risque d’un actif est une combinaison de plusieurs facteurs de risque. Les anomalies de marché, selon ces auteurs, n’existent pas. Elles résultent de l’omission de facteurs de risque qui influencent la formation du prix que le seul beta du marché ne capture pas. Les auteurs formalisent un modèle à trois (1993) puis à cinq facteurs empiriques (2015) afin d’expliquer l'intégralité des rentabilités ex post en séries chronologiques ainsi qu'en coupe transversale. C’est dans cette démarche que ce travail de thèse s’inscrit. Malgré leurs carences en fondements théoriques, les modèles ad-hoc peuvent-ils gagner une forme de légitimité en intégrant un contenu informationnel large et en apparaissant comme des solutions pertinentes et efficaces pour l'estimation du risque des actifs financiers. À partir d'un échantillon français de 1 163 titres sur la période 1990-2016 et d'un échantillon européen de 12 144 actions entre 2002 à 2015, trois études empiriques sont produites. La première interroge le caractère généralisable des modèles multifactoriels à l'échelle nationale et plus précisément à destination du marché hexagonal. La seconde étude cherche à s'affranchir des limites du MÉDAF en ajoutant les co-moments d'ordres trois et quatre dans les combinaisons de facteurs testés. Dans un axe de généralisation du MÉDAF, le caractère asymétrique (co-skewness) et leptokurtique (co-kurtosis) des distributions de rentabilité constitue-t-il un apport informationnel susceptible d'expliquer les anomalies de marché rendant, par voie de conséquence, les primes de risque caduques ? Dans un troisième essai portant sur le marché européen, nous testons l'hypothèse selon laquelle la notation extra-financière constitue une information publique intégrée dans les cours. Dans ce contexte régional, quid de la capacité des modèles multifactoriels à intégrer une dimension du risque associé à la notation extra-financière. Nous montrons que la notation extra-financière portant sur les dimensions environnementales, sociales et de gouvernance (ESG) approxime un contenu informationnel perçu par les investisseurs comme un facteur de risque. En cela, les modèles ad-hoc montrent une capacité explicative supérieure à celle du modèle de marché. Ils permettent d'intégrer des contenus informationnels larges et disparates non captés par le beta et trouvent en cela une forme de légitimité dans l'estimation du risque des actifs financiers
Do the prices of financial assets reflect all previous information as well as all that is public? The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), in a semi-strong form (Fama, 1970), states that securities prices represent, at all times, their respective intrinsic values. Testing this EMH requires the use of an asset pricing model, the CAPM. However, it does not explain significant portions of the returns: the market anomalies. What to conclude? Is it a misspecified model or a valid one that, in its failures, indicates that markets are inefficient? Fama and French (1992) argue that the risk of an asset is a combination of several risk factors. Market anomalies, according to these authors, do not exist. They result from the omission of risk factors that influence the formation of the price that the beta of the market does not capture. The authors formalize a three (1993) and a five factor model (2015) to explain the completeness of the ex post returns in time series as well as in cross section. Despite their shortcomings in theoretical foundations, can ad-hoc models gain some form of legitimacy by integrating broad informational content and appearing as relevant and effective solutions for risk estimation of financial assets. From a French sample of 1,163 individual securities over the period 1990-2016 and from a European one of 12,144 stocks between 2002 and 2015, three empirical studies are done. The first interrogates the generalizability of multifactorial models at the national level and more specifically to the French market. The second study seeks to overcome the limitations of the CAPM by adding co-moments of orders three and four in the combinations of factors tested. In an axis of generalization of the CAPM, do the co-skewness and the co-kurtosis constitute an informational contribution likely to explain the market anomalies, which consequently makes the risk premiums outdated? In a third essay on the European market, we test the EMH through the extra-financial rating. This rating is a public information integrated into the prices. In this regional context, what about the ability of multifactor models to integrate a dimension of the risk associated with the extra-financial rating? We show that this rating of environmental, social and governance (ESG) dimensions approximates information content perceived by investors as a risk factor. Ad-hoc models show a higher explanatory power than the ex post CAPM. They succeed in integrating broad and disparate information contents not captured by the beta and find in this, a form of legitimacy for estimating the risk of financial assets

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Centenaro, Cueva Ayna Gwendolyne, Arrayán Carlos Efraín Chávez, and Olivares Paolo Antonio Velásquez. "Comparativa entre los modelos de financiamiento: “pagos por disponibilidad" y "pago por hitos" para el proyecto APP Sistemas de Tratamiento de las Aguas Residuales de la Cuenca del Lago Titicaca." Master's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/633813.

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Actualmente el Estado Peruano a través de PROINVERSION promueven las Asociaciones Publico Privadas (APP) para la ejecución de proyectos con el apoyo del sector privado. Estos tipos de proyectos son promovidos en el sector privado a través de Iniciativas Privadas Autofinanciadas (IPA) o Iniciativas Privadas Cofinanciadas (IPC). Asimismo, para ser ejecutadas correctamente y además sean atractivas para el sector privado deben contar con un eficiente modelo de financiamiento; en el caso de las APP contamos con: Pago por disponibilidad y Pago por hitos. Es por estas iniciativas privadas, que este año el Estado Peruano ha adjudicado la buena pro del proyecto PTAR TITICACA. Este proyecto es un sistema para tratar las aguas residuales antes que lleguen al Lago Titicaca y lo contaminen. El consorcio FYPASA ha ganado el concurso y operará Plantas de Tratamiento de Aguas Residuales en 10 provincias que están alrededor del Lago. Este proyecto ha tenido como condición en licitación que el mecanismo de pago sea pago por hitos, por ello, esta investigación busca realizar la comparación de ambos tipos de mecanismos de pago con la finalidad de conocer los resultados para ambos casos y que beneficios presentan para el sector privado.
Currently, the Peruvian State through PROINVERSION promotes Public Private Partnership (PPPs) for the execution of projects with the support of the private sector. These types of projects are promoted in the private sector through Self-Financed Private Initiatives (IPA) or Co-Financed Private Initiatives (IPC). Also, to be executed correctly and also be attractive to the private sector, they must have an efficient financing model; in the case of PPPs we have: Availability Payments and Milestone Payments. It is for these private initiatives; the current year the Peruvian State has approved PTAR TITICACA project. This project is a system to treat wastewater before it reaches Lake Titicaca and contaminate it. The FYPASA consortium has won the contest and will operate Wastewater Treatment Plants in 10 provinces that are around the Lake. This project has had as a condition in tender that the payment mechanism is Milestones Payments, therefore, this research seeks to make the comparison of both types of payment mechanisms in order to know the results for both cases and what benefits they present for the private sector.
Trabajo de investigación

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Sánchez, Griñán Caballero Javier Francisco. "Un modelo de negocio financiero inclusivo : el caso de Financiera Efectiva." Bachelor's thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2017. http://tesis.pucp.edu.pe/repositorio/handle/123456789/10276.

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El presente informe busca explicar la creación y desarrollo de una financiera de consumo que a través de crédito para financiar la adquisición de bienes, genera acceso al sistema financiero. Contribuye también, a la mejora del nivel de vida de sus clientes que siendo en su mayoría, de bajos ingresos de la población, acceden al bien mismo que suele ser de beneficio familiar, no existiendo muchas alternativas en el mercado que faciliten la compra de los mismos. La idea es compartir las diferentes etapas del crecimiento alcanzado empezando con un universo muy reducido de clientes y lugares de atención, sobre la base de un modelo de acompañamiento a las ventas de una cadena retail, en este caso vinculada a la financiera pero el modelo aplica a situaciones distintas también. Este aspecto es importante porque el interés en el cliente lo activa la cadena inicialmente y la financiera lo complementa con la oportunidad del otorgamiento del crédito. Es clave en el desarrollo entender algunos aspectos básicos que tienen que ver con mantener el enfoque hacia el cliente y conocer sus características porque dado que, no existen modelos decisionales predictivos para segmentos sin registro bancario, es fundamental el proceso paralelo de aprendizaje y construcción de las variables determinantes para la creación de protocolos de procedimiento y decisión, que alineen con la calidad del crédito y apetito de riesgo de la institución. Es decir, cómo se logró construir sobre criterios cualitativos de actividad y vivienda, referidos a la base de la población una política de crédito de acceso masivo. Los logros alcanzados por la financiera, ayudan también, para mostrar que sistemas de control de tasas no hubieran permitido esa expansión de clientes con acceso al crédito, en línea con objetivos macro del país de inclusión financiera. Es importante en esta parte comprender que dadas las características del segmento, hay asociado un alto costo operacional a través de procesos manuales realizados por personal alineado al segmento, que hace labores de contacto, verificación y cobro de la operación. Esta situación, condiciona la tasa de interés pues en primera impresión aparenta haber un elevado margen operativo, pero este se reduce una vez se incluyen los costos operacionales de gestión de campo. Otro tema relevante como aporte al conocimiento del comportamiento crediticio del sector, está vinculado a la cualidad del crédito pues al satisfacer puntualmente una necesidad de un bien de uso mayormente familiar, se genera un valor intangible en la preferencia de pago y por lo tanto de la calidad del portafolio. El resultado luego de 12 años, muestra algunos indicadores inusuales en la industria bancaria como el sostener niveles de riesgo a pesar de crecimientos de cartera exponenciales, que pasaron de 6,000 a 320,000 clientes vigentes (más 500,000 “dormidos”) con niveles de exclusividad como proveedor financiero de aproximadamente 40% los últimos años y hasta 78% si consideramos clientes que además de Efectiva, son atendidos por otra entidad financiera del sistema peruano.
Trabajo de suficiencia profesional

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Taramasco, Ollivier. "Modélisation non paramétrique du comportement des cours boursiers." Grenoble 1, 1993. http://www.theses.fr/1993GRE10038.

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Ce travail a pour objet d'eclairer le comportement des cours d'actions et indices de valeurs. Le processus des rentabilites boursieres est d'abord examine a l'aide des outils statistiques classiques puis des techniques empruntees a la theorie du chaos. L'etude se focalise ensuite sur la nature de la dependance entre les rentabilites consecutives. Celle-ci est decrite par l'analyse factorielle des correspondances et par l'analyse canonique entre deux vecteurs aleatoires. Les resultats montrent qu'il existe, outre la correlation lineaire, une dependance d'allure parabolique, que ces deux formes de dependance restent relativement stables dans le temps et qu'elles ont une interpretation financiere possible. Ces constats conduisent alors a une representation de type arch non parametrique du processus des rentabilites dont les moments conditionnels peuvent etre exprimes a l'aide des fonctions canoniques

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Schimith, Cristiano Descovi. "MODELO DE PLANEJAMENTO FINANCEIRO INTEGRADO AO PLANEJAMENTO ESTRATÉGICO PESSOAL." Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, 2013. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/8274.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
Personal financial planning is a field of study that has been highlighted in recent times, especially when observed some periods of economic and financial uncertainty involving the global market, and that end directly impacts in life of people's. The main objective of this study is to propose a model of Personal Financial Planning. As for nature research is qualitative, exploratory and descriptive, making use of literature review to describe a model of organizational Strategic Planning, and Personal Strategic Planning, which served as the basis for structuring the proposed model. The conceptual basis is constructed through an analysis and description of the methodologies used by authors who are references in the financial field. The proposed model is composed of three stages: assessment, formulation and implementation. The stages consist of five steps interconnected through of feedback, and are subdivided into financial diagnostic, financial goals, internal aspects, external and actions. As a result of the study is presented the proposed model, has the potential to serve as support would improve the financial performance of individuals and can also serve as a tool to support professional consulting and financial coaching.
Planejamento financeiro pessoal é um campo de estudo que vem se destacando, nos últimos tempos, principalmente, quando observados alguns períodos de incertezas econômicas e financeiras que envolvem o mercado global, e que acabam impactando diretamente no cotidiano das pessoas. Neste estudo, o objetivo principal é propor um Modelo de Planejamento Financeiro Pessoal. Quanto a sua natureza a pesquisa é qualitativa, de abordagem exploratória e descritiva, fazendo uso da pesquisa bibliográfica para descrever um modelo de planejamento Estratégico organizacional, e um Planejamento Estratégico pessoal, que serviram de base para a estruturação do modelo proposto, que é composto por de três etapas: Avaliação, formulação e implementação. Por sua vez estas etapas são divididas em cinco fases que interligadas por meio da retroalimentação denominam-se em: diagnóstico financeiro, objetivos financeiros, aspectos internos, aspectos externos e ações. No resultado do estudo é apresentado o modelo proposto, que possui potencial para servir como suporte de melhoria no desempenho financeiro dos indivíduos e também poderá servir como uma ferramenta de apoio aos profissionais de consultoria e coaching financeiros.

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Kohn, Maximilian-Benedikt Herwarth Detlef. "Speculative bubbles and contagion: analysis of volatility’s clusters during the DotCom bubble based on the dynamic conditional correlation model." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/14193.

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Submitted by Maximilian-Benedikt Koehn (mb@koehn.cc) on 2015-10-27T13:40:42Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_FGV_MBK-2.pdf: 1998443 bytes, checksum: f5b2dd679c9a165738dd916b469de18e (MD5)
Rejected by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br), reason: Maximilian, In second page, the date is incorrect, it should be 2015. Also the pages numeration in the thesis is incorrect, it should started at the first page of the thesis but the number only appear in the introdution. and it should be at the bottom of the pages. Ex: Introdution is page 10 so in the bottom of the page you see the number 10. Also you didn't write the acknowledgement. It's mandatory in the thesis. Ana Luiza Holme 3799-3492 on 2015-10-27T13:49:55Z (GMT)
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Reviewing the definition and measurement of speculative bubbles in context of contagion, this paper analyses the DotCom bubble in American and European equity markets using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001) as an econometrical - and on the other hand the behavioral finance as an psychological explanation. Contagion is defined in this context as the statistical break in the computed DCCs as measured by the shifts in their means and medians. Even it is astonishing, that the contagion is lower during price bubbles, the main finding indicates the presence of contagion in the different indices among those two continents and proves the presence of structural changes during financial crisis.
Revendo a definição e determinação de bolhas especulativas no contexto de contágio, este estudo analisa a bolha do DotCom nos mercados acionistas americanos e europeus usando o modelo de correlação condicional dinâmica (DCC) proposto por Engle e Sheppard (2001) como uma explicação econométrica e, por outro lado, as finanças comportamentais como uma explicação psicológica. Contágio é definido, neste contexto, como a quebra estatística nos DCC’s estimados, medidos através das alterações das suas médias e medianas. Surpreendentemente, o contágio é menor durante bolhas de preços, sendo que o resultado principal indica a presença de contágio entre os diferentes índices dos dois continentes e demonstra a presença de alterações estruturais durante a crise financeira.

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Ambrozini, Marcelo Augusto. "Políticas de dividendos no Brasil: um modelo de apoio à decisão." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96132/tde-15122011-163251/.

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Do ponto de vista financeiro, o objetivo de uma empresa é promover a maximização da riqueza econômica dos seus acionistas. Por essa lógica, uma decisão de investimento só deve ser aceita se o retorno oferecido pelo projeto superar o custo do capital nele empregado. Nas decisões de financiamento, busca-se atingir a estrutura ótima de capital da empresa, que leve a minimização da média ponderada dos custos de capital da companhia e, consequentemente, à maximização da riqueza do acionista. Mas, ao contrário das decisões de investimento e de financiamento, as decisões de dividendos não possuem como princípio norteador um único parâmetro a ser seguido, já que diversos fatores financeiros, legais, fiscais e até mesmo comportamentais afetam essa decisão. A literatura de finanças apresenta um modelo para a decisão de dividendos chamado de Modelo de Dividendos Residuais (MDR). Nele, o percentual de dividendos a ser distribuído é determinado com base no lucro líquido contábil, no índice alvo de capital próprio da empresa e no orçamento de capital. No entanto, além de não priorizar a maximização da riqueza do acionista, entende-se que o MDR deixa de contemplar algumas importantes variáveis que deveriam ser levadas em consideração no momento da definição payout de dividendos, conforme preconizado pela literatura de finanças. Neste trabalho, foi realizada uma pesquisa empírica que verificou se, na prática, os gestores das companhias brasileiras de capital aberto levam em consideração os diversos fatores apresentados pelos estudos acadêmicos como sendo fundamentais para as decisões de dividendos. Em seguida, foi proposto um modelo conceitual de apoio ao processo de tomada de decisão de destinação dos lucros que leva em consideração fatores como a geração de valor econômico ao acionista, as particularidades legais e tributárias brasileiras, o poder de distorção da inflação na formação do lucro contábil, a estrutura ótima de capital da empresa, a existência de projetos futuros com valor presente líquido positivo, o fluxo de caixa livre para o acionista, entre outros. Esse modelo tem como objetivo oferecer um mapa decisorial conceitual mais abrangente do que o MDR e espera-se que forneça um parâmetro mais adequado para as decisões de dividendos por parte dos gestores empresariais brasileiros.
From the financial management point of view, the objective of a company is to promote the maximization of their shareholders economical wealth. So, an investment decision could only be accepted if the return on this investment surpass the capital spend to generate it. In financing decisions, the goal is to achieve the companys optimal capital structure leading to the minimization of the weighted average cost of capital of the company, consequently, the maximization of the shareholder wealth. But, unlike the investment and financing decisions, the dividends decisions do not have as a guiding principle a single parameter to be followed, since several financial, legal, fiscal and even behavioral factors affect this decision. The financial management literature presents a model of dividends decisions called Residual Dividend Model (RDM), a model in which the percentage of dividends to be shared is determined based on accounting net profit, on the equity target measure and on the capital budget. However, besides not to prioritize the maximization of the shareholders wealth, it is understood that the RDM fails to address some important variables that should be taken into account when setting the dividend payout, as showed by the financial management literature. The present study aimed to verify by an empirical research whether the managers of Brazilian public companies take into account the various factors presented by academic studies as being essential for the dividend decisions. And then it was proposed a conceptual model to support the decision making process for the profit destination which takes into consideration factors such as economic value to shareholders, the particularities of Brazilian legal and tax systems, the distortion caused by the inflation in the accounting profit, the optimal capital structure of the company, the existence of future projects with positive net present value, free cash flow to shareholders, among others. This model aims to provide a decision map concept wider than the RDM and it is expected to provide a more appropriate parameter for the dividends decisions by the Brazilian business managers.

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Laurente, García María Marisol, and Villalobos Leyla del Milagro Saldaña. "Controversia del CAPM con relación al riesgo y rentabilidad de activos financieros frente a otros modelos alternativos y derivados." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/628015.

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El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo analizar el uso y aplicación del modelo de valoración de activos de capital, CAPM, como herramienta de planificación y evaluación financiera, comparándolo con otros modelos alternativos. El CAPM propone una relación entre el riesgo y rendimiento de un activo. El riesgo está representado por el coeficiente beta, que mide la sensibilidad del instrumento financiero en relación con el riesgo sistemático, ya sea en un portafolio de activos o en la valoración de una empresa. Debido a que existen críticas sobre la validez del CAPM, en este estudio se busca conocer la efectividad que tiene el uso y la aplicación del modelo. Para ello, se han buscado evidencias empíricas, en diferentes países, y sectores económicos en las que se compara el CAPM con otros modelos alternativos, tales como el APT o el de Tres Factores Fama y French que, según la investigación realizada, serían los más utilizados. Los resultados de esta investigación muestran que el CAPM no ofrece necesariamente resultados positivos significativos en los estudios revisados. Sin embargo, ello no quiere decir que el CAPM no sea un modelo suficiente para predecir la relación riesgo – rentabilidad en los casos en los que se aplica. Se concluye por ello que, a pesar de que existen modelos alternativos tratando de superar las limitaciones del CAPM, hoy en día este modelo sigue siendo el más utilizado fundamentalmente por su sencillez y por su capacidad de explicar y predecir, de manera suficiente, en la mayoría de las aplicaciones generales.
The objective of this paper is to analyze the use and application of the capital asset pricing model, CAPM, as a planning and financial evaluation tool and to compare it with other alternative models. The CAPM propose a relationship between the risk and return of an asset. The risk is represented by coefficient called beta, which measures the sensitivity of the financial asset in relation to it´s systematic risk, either in a portfolio or in the valuation of a company. Given that there are controversies about the validity of the CAPM, the study is gad is to understand the effectiveness of the use and application of the model. In order to do that, evidence, in different countries and economic sectors, is presented in which the CAPM is compared with other alternative models, such as the APT or the Fama and French Three Factor, according to this investigation would be the most used. The results of this investigation shown that, the CAPM, even though it is not able to offer significant positives results in the studies reviewed. However, it is not a sufficient model for predictins the risk - return relationship in the cases where it applies. It is concluded for that, although there are alternatives models trying to overcome the limitations of the CAPM, this model is nowadays the most used yet, fundamentally because of its simplicity and its ability to explain and predict, in a sufficient fashion, in most of the general applications.
Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

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Aboulfadl, Mehdi. "La politique monétaire et la stabilité financière." Thesis, Grenoble, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014GRENE003.

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Les pratiques des banques centrales se sont graduellement ajustées, depuis les années 90, aux principes fondamentaux de la Nouvelle synthèse, et ont convergé vers une normalisation qui a fait ses preuves. D'une part, cette normalisation se fonde sur la doctrine de stabilité des prix, déployée sous la forme du système de ciblage d'inflation. D'autre part, elle s'accompagne de pratiques afin de renforcer la crédibilité et la transparence. De plus, la représentation DSGE de l'économie adoptée par la Nouvelle synthèse, et du fait de sa cohérence théorique, s'est aussi imposée comme un cadre analytique central de politique monétaire, particulièrement adapté pour des analyses de scenarii et pour générer des prévisions de variables d'intérêt. En parallèle, les banques centrales ont tenté de favoriser un environnement financier stable, à travers leur rôle de prêteur en dernier ressort. Et grâce au principe d'efficience des marchés, l'utilisation de la politique monétaire face aux bulles spéculatives a été déconseillée. Cependant, la dimension de stabilité financière a souffert d'une absence de définition consensuelle, conduisant à une multiplication des méthodologies pour la quantification des risques, la prévention des crises et l'évaluation du système financier. La crise de 2007 a remis en cause ce consensus naissant. Tout d'abord, l'apparition de perturbations financières dans un environnement de stabilité des prix a semblé invalider les principes théoriques de la politique monétaire. Ensuite, l'adoption d'une série de mesures dites non conventionnelles, suite à l'atteinte du taux plancher zéro, a montré l'insuffisance des instruments usuels de politique monétaire pour contrer la crise et favoriser une reprise durable. Enfin, le traitement résiduel réservé à la sphère financière, dans le modèle canonique NK n'a pas permis d'appréhender les régularités du cycle d'affaires, les vulnérabilités financières, le manque de liquidité ou la procyclicité des systèmes financiers. Les critiques adressées à la Nouvelle synthèse ont principalement porté sur des hypothèses spécifiques, et non pas sur le cadre lui-même. Par conséquent, la pertinence du cadre NK semble toujours de mise, du fait de son caractère unique d'absorption de théories au départ fort variées. Ainsi, l'introduction de la possibilité de défaut et de la monnaie a permis la modélisation d'un secteur bancaire actif, afin de comprendre les altérations du mécanisme de transmission des chocs et de considérer l'existence de taux d'intérêts multiples. De même, le rôle du marché interbancaire a été abordé pour étudier le manque de confiance, l'assèchement des liquidités et l'impact du marché sur le financement de l'économie. Enfin, les multiples dimensions des politiques monétaires non conventionnelles ont été intégrées, en vue d'examiner leur efficacité et d'identifier les mécanismes de transmission. Toutefois, il n'existe pas de représentation microéconomiquement fondée, suffisamment générale pour capter, de manière logique et parcimonieuse, la majorité des spécificités associées à la sphère financière. La crise a également permis de dégager des enseignements concernant le secteur financier, en ce qui concerne son rôle en termes d'accentuation des non-linéarités de la dynamique économique, sur les répercussions négatives du taux plancher zéro et, enfin, sur la remise en cause de l'hypothèse de Schwartz. En mettant en évidence les liens entre la politique monétaire et la politiques macroprudentielle, la crise a donc invalidé le principe de dichotomie adopté jusque-là. Ces nouvelles orientations ne sont cependant pas totalement claires. En effet, la gestion de la sortie de la crise économique, et l'impact des plans d'austérité, laissent apparaitre de nouveaux défis : un risque de stagnation similaire à celui qui a touché le Japon ; le retour aux pratiques de transformation des échéances à fort effet de levier; et le flou entourant les stratégies de sortie des banques centrales
Central banks practices have gradually adjusted, since the 90s, to the fundamental principles of the New synthesis, and converged towards a normalization that has proved its worth. On one hand, this normalization is based on the doctrine of price stability, under the form of an inflation targeting system. On the other hand, it is supplemented with practices intended to enhance credibility and transparency. In addition, and because of its theoretical coherence, the DSGE representation of the economy adopted by the New Synthesis also emerged as a central analytical framework for monetary policy, particularly suitable for scenario analyzes and for generating forecasts of variables of interest. At the same time, central banks have tried to promote a stable financial environment, through their role as lender of last resort. And thanks to the principle of market efficiency, the use of monetary policy in the face of speculative bubbles has been limited. However, the concept of financial stability has been lacking a consensual definition, leading to a proliferation of methodologies for quantifying risk, preventing crisis and evaluating the financial system. The 2007 crisis has challenged this emerging consensus. First, the onset of the financial turmoil, in an environment of price stability, seemed to invalidate the theoretical principles of monetary policy. Then, the adoption of a series of so-called unconventional monetary policy measures, upon reaching the zero lower bound, exposed the inadequacy of conventional monetary policy instruments, in order to counter the crisis and encourage a sustainable recovery. Finally, the residual treatment of the financial sector in the canonical NK model failed to capture the regularities of the business cycle, the financial vulnerability, the lack of liquidity and the procyclicality of financial systems. Critics of the New synthesis focused on specific assumptions, rather than on the framework itself. Therefore, the relevance of the NK framework still seems appropriate, because of its unique capability of absorbing various theories which may initially seem irreconcilable. Thanks to the introduction of money and the possibility of default, the modeling of an active banking sector helped understand the changes in the shocks transmission mechanism, and enabled the introduction of multiple interest rates. Similarly, the interbank market role has been addressed in order to investigate the erosion of confidence, the drying up of liquidity and the impact on the financing of the economy. Finally, the multiple dimensions of unconventional monetary policies have been incorporated in order to assess their effectiveness, and to identify the transmission mechanisms. However, there is no microeconomically based representation general enough to capture, in a logic and parsimonious way, the majority of the financial characteristics. The crisis has also helped to draw lessons about the financial sector, with regards to its role in terms of increased economic non-linearities, the negative impact of the zero lower bound, and the questioning of the Schwartz hypothesis. By highlighting the links between monetary and macroprudential policies, the crisis has then invalidated the dichotomy principle adopted until now. These new guidelines are, however, not entirely clear. Indeed, the economic recovery management and the impact of austerity measures create new challenges: a stagnation risk similar to the one that hit Japan; a return to highly leveraged maturity transformation practices; and blurry central banks exit strategies

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Sato, Sonia Sanae. "Análise econômico-financeira setorial: estudo da relação entre liquidez e rentabilidade sob a ótica do modelo dinâmico." Universidade de São Paulo, 2007. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18140/tde-05032008-110440/.

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Este trabalho teve como propósito apresentar e analisar a relação entre liquidez e rentabilidade das empresas sob a ótica do modelo dinâmico. Para tanto, recorreu-se à revisão bibliográfica do modelo dinâmico que foi introduzido no Brasil pelo professor francês Michel Fleuriet que atuou na década de 70 na Fundação Dom Cabral. Este modelo que tem como objetivo analisar o investimento em capital de giro e sua administração, além de retomar o tema da liquidez permitiu avaliar a tomada de decisões das empresas, bem como revelar diretrizes para o futuro a partir da reclassificação do balanço patrimonial e isolamento de três variáveis chaves - a necessidade de capital de giro (NCG), o capital de giro (CDG) e o saldo de tesouraria (ST) - cuja combinação culminou na identificação de seis tipos de estruturas financeiras. Deste modo o modelo dinâmico, mudou o enfoque da análise tradicional voltada para o aspecto de solvência e descontinuidade dos negócios, para uma análise dinâmica voltada para a real situação de liquidez da empresa e integrada a sua dinâmica operacional. Assim, para fins de avaliação da liquidez, esta pesquisa optou pela utilização do modelo dinâmico e para a avaliação da rentabilidade foram utilizados os indicadores tradicionais de rentabilidade: margem líquida (ML), retorno sobre o patrimônio líquido (ROE) e retorno sobre o ativo total (ROA). Para o desenvolvimento desta pesquisa foram utilizados dados secundários através de pesquisa bibliográfica e coleta dos demonstrativos contábeis consolidados de final de ano de 16 empresas do subsetor econômico tecidos, vestuário e calçados atuando no Brasil no período entre janeiro de 1997 a dezembro de 2006 e que tinham suas ações listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). A partir da reclassificação desses demonstrativos e cálculo das variáveis chaves do modelo dinâmico foi possível constatar o predomínio do tipo 3 de estrutura financeira para a maioria das empresas analisadas, ou seja, aquele que indica o uso de empréstimos de curto prazo como complemento dos recursos de longo prazo no financiamento das necessidades de capital de giro. Com relação à análise da rentabilidade, verificou-se que metade das empresas analisadas não apresentou um bom desempenho, considerando a freqüência de indicadores negativos na média do período analisado. Por fim, os resultados obtidos demonstraram que o pressuposto teórico entre liquidez e rentabilidade não pode ser confirmado na prática da maioria das empresas analisadas, isto porque não foi possível observar uma relação direta entre a rentabilidade expressa pelos indicadores tradicionais propostos e a participação de capital de terceiros expressa pelo saldo de tesouraria negativo. Neste caso, a rentabilidade variou mais estritamente em função do desempenho em gerar vendas e administrar os custos e despesas do que do risco de maior ou menor liquidez assumido pelas empresas analisadas.
This work had as purpose to present and to analyze the relationship between liquidity and profitability of the companies under the dynamic model\'s optic. For so much, it was used the bibliographical revision of the dynamic model that it was introduced in Brazil by the french teacher Michel Fleuriet that worked in the 70s in the Fundação Dom Cabral. This model that has as objective analyzes the investment in working capital and its administration, besides retaking the liquidity theme it allowed to evaluate the companies\' decision taking, as well as to reveal guidelines for the future starting from the reclassification of the balance sheet and isolation of three keys variables - the working capital requirement, the working capital and the treasury balance - whose combination culminated in the identification of six types of financial structures. This way the dynamic model, changed the focus of the traditional analysis returned for the solvency aspect and discontinuity of the businesses, for a dynamic analysis returned for to real situation of company liquidity and integrated its operational dynamics. Like this, for ends of liquidity evaluation, this research opted for the use of the dynamic model and for the profitability evaluation the traditional profitability indicators were used: liquid margin, return on equity (ROE) and return on total assets (ROA). For the development of this research secondary data were used through bibliographical research and collection of the demonstrative accounting consolidated of year end of 16 companies of the economical subsector woven, clothing and shoes acting in Brazil in the period of January from 1997 to December of 2006 and that they had their stocks listed in the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa). Starting from the re-classification of those demonstrative and calculation of the key variables of the dynamic model was possible to verify the prevalence of the type 3 of financial structure for most of the analyzed companies, that is, which indicates the use of short-term debt as complement of the resources of long-term in the financing of the working capital requirements. Regarding profitability analysis, it was verified that the companies didn\'t present a good performance, considering the frequency of negative indicators in the average of the analyzed period. Finally, the obtained results demonstrated that the trade-off between liquidity and profitability cannot be confirmed in practice of most of the analyzed companies, this because it wasn\'t possible to observe a direct relationship among the expressed profitability for the proposed traditional indicators and the participation of capital of the others expressed by negative treasury balance. In this case, the profitability varied more strictly in function of the performance in to generate sales and to manage the costs and expenses than of the larger risk or smaller liquidity assumed by the analyzed companies.

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Moravec, Jan. "Návrh na zlepšení modelu finančního plánování v podniku." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2009. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-222386.

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This Master’s Thesis deals with the analysis of current situation in company AŽD, s.r.o. and of its financial planning model. On the basis of findings, the work includes the proposal of improvement this model.

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Loon, Yee Cheng. "Model Uncertainty and Mutual Fund Investing." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2007. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/finance_diss/11.

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Yee Cheng Loon’s dissertation abstract Model uncertainty exists in the mutual fund literature. Researchers employ a variety of models to estimate risk-adjusted return, suggesting a lack of consensus as to which model is correct. Model uncertainty makes it difficult to draw clear inference about mutual fund performance persistence. We explicitly account for model uncertainty by using Bayesian model averaging techniques to estimate a fund’s risk-adjusted return. Our approach produces the Bayesian model averaged (BMA) alpha, which is a weighted combination of alphas from individual models. Using BMA alphas, we find evidence of performance persistence in a large sample of US equity, bond and balanced mutual funds. Funds with high BMA alphas subsequently generate higher risk-adjusted returns than funds with low BMA alphas, and the magnitude of outperformance is economically and statistically significant. We also find that mutual fund investors respond to the information content of BMA alphas. High BMA alpha funds receive subsequent cash inflows while low BMA alpha funds experience subsequent cash outflows.

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Li, Jiang. "Financial Mathematics Project." Digital WPI, 2012. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/263.

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This project describes the underlying principles of Modern Portfolio Theory, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and multi-factor models in detail, explores the process of constructing optimal portfolios using the Modern Portfolio Theory, estimates the expected return and covariance matrix of assets using CAPM and multi-factor models, and finally, applies these models in real markets to analyze our portfolios and compare their performances.

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Roman, Allan Donovan. "Financial Reporting and the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA) in the Western Cape." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2008. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_3069_1273450909.

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The study focused on financial reporting in the public sector with the view to understanding the impact of the present financial management system in South Africa is adding value to the measurable outcomes-based objective process as required by the Public Finance Management Act (PFMA). The study determines the role of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) in financial reporting, in relation to the business plan (strategy) and measurable outcomes and results of the Department of Community Safety. The primary objective of this study was to perform an assessment of financial reporting and its effectiveness in terms of the PFMA as the legislative framework and the MTEF as a financial management tool. The secondary objectives were to: (1) to provide a theoretical perspective of public financial management and reporting in government
(2) to provide an
verview of policies, legislation and strategies
(3) to record and develop a case study of financial reporting in the Western Cape Provincial Government within the Department of Community Safety (WCPG)
(4) to present the research findings on financial management, and (5), to apply the theoretical framework to the case study in order to develop findings.

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Pietersz, Raoul. "Pricing Models for Bermudan-Style Interest Rate Derivatives." [Rotterdam]: Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Erasmus University Rotterdam ; Rotterdam : Erasmus University Rotterdam [Host], 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7122.

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Guirguis, Michel. "A multifactor model of investment trust discounts." Thesis, Bournemouth University, 2005. http://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/346/.

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A closed-end fund, known as an investment trust in the UK and closed-end fund in the US, is a collective investment company that invests in shares of other companies. This study attempts to describe and explain the persistence of the excess discount return on UK investment trusts and US closed-end funds. The ability to identify which factors best capture return variation is central to applications of multifactor pricing models. So the main purpose of this thesis is the application of a multifactor risk model that will explain the-existence of the excess discount return. Hence, the title of the thesis: "A Multifactor Model of Investment Trust Discounts. A Comparative Study of UK Investment Trusts and US Closed-End Funds" First, the time-series properties of the closed-end funds' net asset values (NAVs) and discounts are investigated. In terms of normality, we find that the UK and US excess NAV returns and discounts are approximately normally distributed. In addition, through Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, we find that the UK and US discounts are non-stationary, but the excess discount returns and the excess NAV returns are stationary. In terms of multicollinearity, we find that the independent variables included in our models are not closely correlated, so we do not have problems in using them in the regression models in Chapters 7 and 8. Finally, there are no significant differences in the discount during the month of January and other months. In Chapter 7, we study the importance of management performance in terms of excess NAV returns and discount persistence. We use three approaches: Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model, an extended Fama and French model which incorporates a market timing variable, and a performance persistence model used by Carhart (1997) and Dimson and Minio-Kozerski (2001). On average, the six-factor model developed in the thesis can explain 67% of the variation in the excess discount return in the UK market by taking into consideration the market effect, size, the book-to-market effect, momentum, sentiment and expenses. In contrast, Fama and French's (1993) three-factor and Carhart's (1997) four-factor models explain only 42% of the variation of the excess discount return. Similarly, the six-factor model can explain 66% of the variation in the excess discount return in the US market by taking into consideration the same six independent variables. In contrast, Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model explains 59% of the excess discount return variation and Carhart's (1997) four-factor model explains 65% of the variation.

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Pfiffelmann, Marie. "Comptes d'épargne et actifs à lots : une approche comportementale." Université Louis Pasteur (Strasbourg) (1971-2008), 2007. http://www.theses.fr/2007STR1EC08.

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Ce travail est consacré à l'étude des actifs et comptes d'épargne à lots. Dans la mesure où la popularité de ces instruments financiers ne peut être comprise dans le cadre de la théorie financière classique, nous adoptons, tout au long de notre travail, une approche comportementale. Dans un premier temps, nous étudions la structure de ces actifs et déterminons leur design optimal à la lumière des modèles comportementaux proposés dans la littérature. Les résultats obtenus mettent en exergue certaines limites issues de l'application de ces modèles aux marchés financiers. Nous proposons, dans un second temps, une théorie alternative d'évaluation d'actifs qui pallie les dysfonctionnement relevés précédemment. Dans le cadre de ce nouveau modèle, il est désormais possible de déterminer la structure optimale des produits financiers étudiés
This work is devoted to the study of lottery-linked-deposit-accounts (LLDA). As the popularity of these financial assets cannot be understood in the expected utility framework, we adopt a behavioral approach. First, we study the structure of these assets and determine their optimal design in the light of the behavioral models generally proposed in the literature. However, when these models are applied to the financial market, they have to cope with some difficulties. In order to make up for these limitations, we propose an alternative theory of decision making under risk. In the framework of this new theory, it is now possible to determine, without limitation, the optimal design of LLDA

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Nguyen, Anh Laurent. "Calibration de modèles financiers par minimisation d'entropie relative et modèles avec sautsbTexte imprimé." Marne-la-vallée, ENPC, 2003. http://www.theses.fr/2003ENPC0012.

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Le smile de volatilité implicite observé sur les marchés d'options traduit l'insuffisance du modèle de Black et Scholes. Avec la nécessité d'élaborer un modèle actif financier plus satisfaisant, vient celle de sa calibration, objet de cette thèse. La calibration par minimisation de l'entropie relative a été proposée récemment dans le cadre de la méthode de Monte-Carlo. On a étudié la convergence et la stabilité de cette méthode et on l'a étendue à des critères plus généraux que l'entropie relative. Pour qu'il y ait l'absence d'opportunité d'arbitrage, il faut que le sous-jacent actualisé soit une martingale. La prise en compte de cette nécessité est absordée sous l'angle d'un problème de moments. Dans la deuxième partie, on a considéré un modèle simple du phénomène de krach en introduisant en particulier des sauts dans la volatilité du sous-jacent. On a calculé le risque quadratique et effectué un développement approché du smile qui constitue un outil pour la calibration. Finalement, dans la troisième partie, on utilise l'entropie relative afin de calibrer l'intensité des sauts d'un modèle de diffusion avec sauts et volatilité locale. La stabilité de la méthode est prouvée grâce à des techniques de contrôle optimal ainsi qu'au théorème des fonctions implicites.

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Rossoni, Thiago dos Santos. "Globalização financeira e taxa de juros do Brasil : um estudo econométrico." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/168617.

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A globalização desencadeou uma maior aproximação econômica entre os indivíduos, as empresas e os governos do mundo todo. Desta forma, de maneira muito rápida são executadas decisões de investimentos por parte dos aplicadores financeiros por todo o mundo na busca de governos ou empresas que se disponham a pagar “mais juros” sobre o capital financeiro aplicado. Assim, a globalização financeira e a abertura econômica estão intimamente relacionadas com o câmbio e a política monetária. A essência dessa relação foi desenvolvida na década de 1960 por Mundell e Fleming como a "Trindade Impossível", a qual destaca que é possível atingir apenas dois dos três desejáveis objetivos de uma nação: a integração financeira, a estabilidade da taxa de câmbio e a autonomia monetária. Neste contexto, o objetivo central deste estudo será analisar a influência da globalização financeira na determinação da taxa de juros brasileira, observando o atual contexto da globalização financeira no mundo e no Brasil e as interações entre os mercados monetário e de câmbio. Então, este estudo é de grande relevância porque a globalização fez com que o globo deixasse de ser apenas uma figura astronômica, mas sim um território no qual todos se encontram relacionados e há uma gama de relações que passam desapercebidas no dia a dia, que aqui serão evidenciadas. Para isso, há cinco partes neste estudo. A primeira parte apresentará uma introdução do tema; a parte dois abordará a globalização financeira, desde uma visão geral sobre o assunto até os seus efeitos no mundo e no Brasil; a parte três apresentará as interações dos mercados monetário e de câmbio; a parte quatro apresentará a Trindade Impossível; a parte cinco avaliará aspectos que afetam a política monetária brasileira, a partir de um estudo econométrico, que explica a taxa de juros do Brasil como função de alguns parâmetros endógenos e exógenos; e a parte seis destacará as principais conclusões sobre a influência da globalização financeira na determinação da taxa de juros do Brasil, especialmente nos últimos quinze anos da história brasileira.
Globalization approached individuals, businesses and governments economically around the world. In this way, financial investors take decisions searching for governments or companies which are willing to pay "more interests" for the financial capital invested. Thus, financial globalization and economic liberalization are closely related to the exchange rate and monetary policy. The essence of this relationship was developed in the 1960s by Mundell and Fleming as the "Trinity Impossible", that means to achieve only two out of three desirable goals of a nation: financial integration, exchange rate stability and monetary autonomy. In this context, the main goal of this study is to analyze the influence of financial globalization that affects Brazilian interest rates, observing the current context of financial globalization in the world and in Brazil; and the interactions between monetary and exchange markets. So, this study is very important because globalization has made the globe not just an astronomical figure, but a territory in which everybody is related, and there is an range of relationships unrealized every day. That will become apparent in this study. For that, there are five parts in this study. Part one will be an introduction of the theme; part two will deal with financial globalization, from an overview of the subject to its effects in the world and in Brazil; part three will present the interactions of monetary and exchange markets; part four will present the Trinity Impossible; part five will evaluate aspects that affect Brazilian monetary policy, by a econometric model, which explains Brazilian interest rates as a function of some endogenous and exogenous parameters; and part six will highlight the main findings on the influence of financial globalization that affects Brazilian interest rates, especially in the last fifteen years in Brazilian history.

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Perales, Manrique Jonathan Hernán, and Chirinos Jorge Alonso Molina. "Modelo de madurez de analítica de datos para el sector financiero." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/652126.

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La analítica de datos permite a las organizaciones del sector financiero obtener una ventaja competitiva a través de procesos destinados a obtener datos, procesarlos y mostrarlos como información valiosa para comprender el comportamiento de sus clientes y estar preparados contra riesgos como el lavado de dinero, el fraude crediticio, entre otros. Sin embargo, las organizaciones no pueden identificar fácilmente las brechas relacionadas con el personal, los sistemas de información y los procesos comerciales que obstaculizan la mejora de su entorno de analítica de datos. En este contexto, los modelos de madurez evalúan, con base en criterios definidos, el estado actual de una organización e identifican su nivel de madurez para mejorar en función de los hallazgos. En este documento, se propone un modelo de madurez para identificar brechas en el entorno analítico de las compañías financieras que conducen a la reducción de estas. Este modelo incluye artefactos y criterios de evaluación centrados en tecnología, gobernanza, gestión de datos, cultura y analítica en sí, lo que proporciona un proceso de diagnóstico más amplio y estructurado con respecto al entorno analítico. El modelo propuesto se probó en tres empresas del sector financiero peruano y los resultados sugieren que los especialistas obtuvieron una perspectiva más clara que sus pensamientos iniciales sobre la situación del entorno analítico de sus empresas.
Data analytics allows organizations in the financial sector to gain a competitive advantage through processes aimed at obtaining data, processing them and displaying them as valuable information to understand the behavior of their clients and to be prepared against risks as money laundering, credit fraud, among others. However, organizations cannot easily identify gaps related to personnel, information systems and business processes that hinder the improvement of their data analytics environment. In this context, maturity models evaluate, based on defined criteria, the current state of an organization and identify its maturity level in order to improve based on the findings. In this paper, a maturity model is proposed to identify gaps in analytics environment of financial companies that lead to the reduction of these. This model includes artifacts and evaluation criteria focused on technology, governance, data management, culture and analytics itself, which gives a broader and structured diagnosis process with respect to the analytics environment. The proposed model was tested in three companies of Peruvian financial sector and the results suggest that the specialists obtained a clearer perspective than their initial thoughts on the situation of the analytics environment of their companies.
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Hubic, Amela. "A financial CGE model for Luxembourg." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209083.

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Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.

The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.

This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:

1.\
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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OU, Jianshe. "Evaluating predictive performance of value-at-risk models in Chinese stock markets." Digital Commons @ Lingnan University, 2007. https://commons.ln.edu.hk/fin_etd/4.

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Risk can be defined as the volatility of unexpected outcomes, generally for values of assets and liabilities. Financial risk, risk refer to possible losses in financial markets, includes markets risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk. This MPhil thesis is specializing on market risk, which involves the uncertainty of earnings or losses resulting from changes in market conditions such as asset prices, interest rates, and market liquidity. The primary tool to evaluate market risk is VaR that is a method of assessing risk through standard statistical techniques. VaR is defined a measure for the worst expected loss over a given time interval under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. The greatest benefit of VaR for an asset manager lies in the imposition of a structured methodology for critically thinking about risk. Institutions applying VaR are forced to confront their exposure to market risk. There are three methods to calculate VaR, parametric, nonparametric and semi-parametric. Parametric method includes The Equally Weighted Moving Average (EqWMA), The Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), GARCH, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approaches. Parametric method includes The Historical Simulation approach (HS), and semi-parametric method includes filtered historical simulation (FHS), extreme value theory (EVT) approaches. At present stage, Chinese asset managers apply RiskMetrics approach, i.e. EWMA, proposed by J.P. Morgan to calculate VaR. But this approach assumes that error term is conditionally normally distributed. However, there has been criticism that the VaR is based on assumptions that do not hold in times when the financial markets are experiencing stress, and that the normal distribution does not make a good job in predicting the distribution of outcomes. Financial returns experience fat tails, skewness and kurtosis, which implies that the normal distribution works well in predicting frequent outcomes but is not a good estimator to predict extreme events. In addition, when applying EWMA approach, Chinese asset managers often use the decay factor proposed by J.P. Morgan instead of obtaining it on the basis of China’s financial markets’ data. The purpose of this MPhil thesis is to compare the applicability of different parametric VaR methods for Chinese equity portfolios. We will also analyze whether equity market cap has any impact on the VaR methods. To assess whether VaR can be considered as a reliable and stable risk measurement tool for Chinese equity portfolios, we have performed an empirical study. The study covers four VaR approaches at the 95% and 99% confidence levels. Moreover, in order to describe skewness and kurtosis, we propose EWMA approach with a mixture of normal distributions. Based on these results we discuss the implications of VaR for asset managers. Our conclusion is that GARCH-normal is superior to Riskmetrics approach at both 95% and 99% confidence levels. The LOG-MLE (maximum Likelihood Estimation) can be improved when GARCH-t approach is used to replace GARCH-normal. However, GARCH-t is more conservative than GARCH-normal at 95% confidence level. At the same time, EWMA with mixed normal distributions is superior to RiskMetrics approach at 99% confidence level, but it is too conservative at 95% confidence level. For EWMA with mixed normal distributions and GARCH-type models, the former is better at 99% confidence level and the latter perform better at 95% confidence level. Due to this fact we recommend EWMA with mixed normal distributions and GARCH-t at 99% confidence level. The performance of GARCH-normal and EWMA is fairly good at 95% confidence level.

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Leturia, Saldaña Fabiola, Villegas Roderick Paredes, Salazar Luis Romaní, and Ruiz Raúl Sotelo. "Sovereign credit default swap vs. credit rating: un modelo empírico." Master's thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12404/13631.

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Los últimos eventos de crisis financieras han generado muchas controversias sobre el rol que han presentado las clasificadoras de riesgo en los mercados financieros debido a la poca precisión de sus evaluaciones expost y sus cuestionados indicadores de riesgo los cuales son empleados por inversionistas e instituciones financieras en la toma de decisiones al momento de adquirir instrumentos de deuda emitidos por determinado país o corporación. Este contexto ha generado la búsqueda de herramientas alternativas como es el caso de las primas de credit default swap (CDS) cuya evidencia empírica ha demostrado reflejar situaciones potenciales de crisis mucho antes que la valorización de los instrumentos financieros realizado por las agencias clasificadoras de riesgo. En ese sentido, el objetivo de esta investigación en primer lugar será verificar la relación de dependencia entre las primas de CDS y las clasificaciones de crédito soberano, que dicta que cuando un país obtiene una mejora en su rating crediticio, la correspondiente prima de su CDS debería disminuir. En segundo lugar, se validar para qué países no se estaría cumpliendo dicha relación. El análisis se realizó sobre una muestra de 16 países entre el periodo de octubre de 2003 a diciembre de 2011, en la cual se aplicó el Modelo de Corrección de Errores (MCE) propuesto por Engle & Granger. Donde se comprueba que la relación de dependencia entre las primas de CDS y las clasificaciones de crédito soberano no se cumple para Estados Unidos, Alemania y Francia a diferencia del resto de países seleccionados. Lo que lleva a concluir, en parte, que para estos tres países las calificadoras de riesgo no están siendo debidamente objetivas ni guardan los mismos niveles de rigurosidad con que califican a los demás países. Lo que alimentan las críticas que se ciernen sobre ellas y elevar a la prima de los CDS como indicador adicional de riesgo crediticio.
The last events of international crisis have generated many controversies over role than the agencies of risk classification have had in the financial market because of the poor expost evaluation and polemic indicators of risk which have used for investors and financial institutions in the make decisions at the moment when they buy any instrument of debt than a country or company to issue. This context has generated the look for alternatives tools like premium of credit default swap (CDS) how empirical evidence has showed potential situations of crisis before than the valuation of financial instruments estimate for the agencies of risk classification. In that way, the purpose of this investigation first verify the relationship of interdependence between the premium of CDS and the rating of severing credit, than has established when a country obtain a improve in its credit rating at the same time its premium of CDS have to reduce. Second, validate what countries not satisfied that relationship. The analysis made for a sample of 16 countries for the period of October 2003 to December 2011, applied the Error Correction Model developed for Engle & Granger. Where proves there isn’t a relationship of interdependence for United States, Germany and France, that result contrast with the rest of countries. In conclusion, for three countries the rating agencies don’t have an objective and severity analysis when certificated the rest of countries. This situation allows make many criticizes over rating agencies and put the CDS like additional indicators of credit risk.
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Herrera, Martínez Tania Susana. "Modelo y Plan de Negocios de la Tarjeta SCIAC para un Operador Financiero." Tesis, Universidad de Chile, 2010. http://www.repositorio.uchile.cl/handle/2250/102298.

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Acheampong, Josephine. "Green Financing: Financing Circular Economy Companies : Case Studies of Ragn-Sellsföretagen AB and Inrego AB." Thesis, KTH, Entreprenörskap och Innovation, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-188677.

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The circular economy (CE) has been identified as a catalyst in sustainable development and economic growth that has the potential to move society from the traditional linear model of resource consumption in the form of take-make-waste to an innovative circular model in the form of reduce-reuse-recycle. Transitioning from the linear economy to the CE requires changes in four areas: material and product design, business models, global reverse networks and enabling business environments. This study considers the financing needs of CE companies as a result of business model changes. Through the case studies of Ragn-Sellsföretagen AB and Inrego AB, analysed with secondary data from ING Bank and primary data collected through semi-structured interviews with the case companies, this research sheds more light on the financing needs of circular economy companies and how they are financed. Findings from this research suggest that the financing needs of circular economy companies depend on the value proposition of the company. In accordance with the pecking order of capital structure, all financing needs of the companies studied are financed from internal sources, particularly retained earnings before external debt financing is accessed. Findings indicate the willingness of banks to finance circular economy companies. The results of this research suggest that the circular economy companies studied do not need financial support from the government or its agencies to succeed even though favourable laws are welcomed. They report that their long-term success depends on their ability to remain innovative in their business models, aligning with Schumpeter’s creative destruction model.

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Rotta, Pedro Nielsen. "Análise de contágio a partir do modelo de correlação condicional constante com mudança de regime Markoviana." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10402.

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Nas últimas décadas, a análise dos padrões de propagação internacional de eventos financeiros se tornou o tema de grande parte dos estudos acadêmicos focados em modelos de volatilidade multivariados. Diante deste contexto, objetivo central do presente estudo é avaliar o fenômeno de contágio financeiro entre retornos de índices de Bolsas de Valores de diferentes países a partir de uma abordagem econométrica, apresentada originalmente em Pelletier (2006), sobre a denominação de Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). Tal metodologia envolve a combinação do Modelo de Correlação Condicional Constante (CCC) proposto por Bollerslev (1990) com o Modelo de Mudança de Regime de Markov sugerido por Hamilton e Susmel (1994). Foi feita uma modificação no modelo original RSDC, a introdução do modelo GJR-GARCH formulado em Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), na equação das variâncias condicionais individuais das séries para permitir capturar os efeitos assimétricos na volatilidade. A base de dados foi construída com as séries diárias de fechamento dos índices das Bolsas de Valores dos Estados Unidos (SP500), Reino Unido (FTSE100), Brasil (IBOVESPA) e Coréia do Sul (KOSPI) para o período de 02/01/2003 até 20/09/2012. Ao longo do trabalho a metodologia utilizada foi confrontada com outras mais difundidos na literatura, e o modelo RSDC com dois regimes foi definido como o mais apropriado para a amostra selecionada. O conjunto de resultados encontrados fornecem evidências a favor da existência de contágio financeiro entre os mercados dos quatro países considerando a definição de contágio financeiro do Banco Mundial denominada de 'muito restritiva'. Tal conclusão deve ser avaliada com cautela considerando a extensa diversidade de definições de contágio existentes na literatura.
Over the last decades, the analysis of the transmissions of international financial events has become the subject of many academic studies focused on multivariate volatility models volatility. The goal of this study is to evaluate the financial contagion between stock market returns. The econometric approach employed was originally presented by Pelletier (2006), named Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). This methodology involves the combination of Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990) with Markov Regime Switching Model suggested by Hamilton and Susmel (1994). A modification was made in the original model RSDC, the introduction of the GJR-GARCH Glosten model formulated in Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), on the equation of the conditional univariate variances to allow asymmetric effects in volatility be captured. The database was built with the series of daily closing stock market indices in the United States (SP500), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Brazil (IBOVESPA) and South Korea (KOSPI) for the period from 02/01/2003 to 20/09/2012. Throughout the work the methodology was compared with others most widespread in the literature, and the model RSDC with two regimes was defined as the most appropriate for the selected sample. The set of results provide evidence for the existence of financial contagion between markets of the four countries considering the definition of financial contagion from the World Bank called 'very restrictive'. Such a conclusion should be evaluated carefully considering the wide diversity of definitions of contagion in the literature.

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Al-Sharif, Faisal F. A. "Financial model for private finance initiative projects applied to school buildings." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/61.

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Private Finance Initiative (PFI) has become a major procurement method in the UK and worldwide. The number of signed PFI deals is growing, but competition is restricted to those companies that are able to afford the initial investment. The bidding cost of PFI projects are high, and bidding companies are not compensated if the client does not award them the project. This is the reason behind several recent high-profile tender xvithdra« als. and is considered a major barrier for private companies wanting to take part in the bidding process. There is an obvious need for a tool to enable construction organizations to participate in PFI projects; one that can support these organizations in a decision-making process that is compatible with their project selection strategies, and will allow them to bid for PFI projects with clearer goals and reduced costs. A computer-based financial model was developed to predict the cost and cash flow of PFI projects, enabling project teams to assess investment decisions at the tendering stage. The proposed model consists of four modules to identify the required building area, predict the construction cost, distribute the occupancy cost, and predict the cash flow of the project. The output of the model provides the project investment results, such as the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR), payback period and investment growth ratio. The model can predict the unitary payment but also allows the user to define the unitary payment. The reports of the model contain the cash flow and investment ratio for both types of unitary payment. The model attempts to provide the information required to assess the feasibility and affordability of the project. It gives the private sector the chance to assess the project before they spend unrecoupable funds on the project. It allows the public sector to determine the project cost, cash flow, unitary charge, and provide the information to be used for the Public Sector Comparator. The data required for the development of the model was collected from different sources. The model was initially developed on spreadsheet software: the final version was transformed into a web-based model using the Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP) and Javascript programming languages. The completed model was then sent to many practitioners for validation and assessment of both the concept and numerical application. The responses received show the valuable role the model could play in PFI projects.

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Pinos, Fabienne. "Inclusion financière et populations précarisées : effets des business models des services financiers en France." Thesis, Bordeaux, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015BORD0024/document.

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Ce travail de recherche a été mené afin de contribuer à l’enrichissement des connaissancesrelatives à l’inclusion financière. Partant du postulat que la pérennité d’une activité estconditionnée par son équilibre économique, que celui-ci soit construit sur la base de moyensprivés, publics ou mixtes, nous avons interrogé la relation entre inclusion financière etpopulations précarisées sous l’angle des effets des business models des services financiers, ennous limitant au marché français.Nous démontrons qu’en dépit d’une réglementation française apparemment protectrice pour leconsommateur et à visée inclusive, les modèles bancaires actuels entretiennent l’exclusion.L’amélioration des conditions d’accès et d’usage des populations précaires aux servicesfinanciers est donc conditionnée par des évolutions que le marché seul ne peut organiser.Nous concluons de surcroît que les dispositifs publics ou associatifs expérimentés pour luttercontre l’exclusion bancaire ne correspondent aux besoins des exclus que pour certains profils,dans certains contextes. De plus, l’hypothèse de pérennité de leurs modèles économiques nepeut être confirmée.Enfin, nous avançons et justifions qu’en matière de services financiers, un modèleéconomique soutenable et inclusif est conditionné par des transformations socioéconomiques.La première tient en l’officialisation de l’accès à la monnaie en tant que serviced’intérêt général, la seconde procède de la réhabilitation de la valeur de l’épargne. L’inclusionfinancière n’a pas vocation à résoudre le problème du niveau des ressources mais, au constatde besoins récurrents en crédit de liquidité, elle progresse lorsque se diffusent des offres quiévitent de détériorer les conditions de vie de l’emprunteur. Tel est l’objectif du modèle quenous proposons
This research was conducted in order to contribute to the enrichment of knowledge onfinancial inclusion. Starting from the premise that the sustainability of a business depends onits economic balance, whether built on the basis of private, public or mixed resources, wequestioned the relationship between financial inclusion and deprived populations focusing onthe effects of the financial services’ business models, limiting ourselves to the French market.We demonstrate that despite a French regulation, seemingly protective for consumers andinclusive-oriented, current banking models maintain exclusion. Improving the conditions ofaccess to and use of financial services by insecure people is conditioned by developments thatthe market alone cannot organize.We conclude further that measures tested by the Government or the voluntary sector to fightagainst banking exclusion do only match the needs of excluded people for certain profiles, incertain contexts. Moreover, the assumption of the sustainability of their business modelscannot be confirmed.Finally, we argue and justify that, as regards financial services, a sustainable and inclusiveeconomic model is conditioned by socio-economic transformations. The first one refers to theformalization of the access to the currency as a service of general interest, the second onecomes from the rehabilitation of the value of savings.Financial inclusion is not intended to address the problem of resource level, but consideringthe finding of recurring liquidity credit needs, it progresses when offers that avoid damagingthe living conditions of the borrower are spread. This is the objective of the proposed model
Esta investigación se realizó con el fin de contribuir al enriquecimiento de los conocimientossobre la inclusión financiera. Partiendo de la premisa de que la sostenibilidad de una empresadepende de su estabilidad económica, que ésta sea construida sobre la base de recursosprivados, públicos o mixtos, cuestionamos la relación entre inclusión financiera y poblacionesdesfavorecidas en términos de efectos de los modelos de negocio de los servicios financieros,limitándonos al mercado francés.Se demuestra que a pesar de una legislación francesa aparentemente protectora para losconsumidores y a finalidad inclusiva, los modelos bancarios actuales mantienen la exclusión.Mejorar las condiciones de acceso a y de uso de los servicios financieros por parte de laspersonas en situación de precariedad está condicionado por evoluciones que el mercado por sísolo no puede organizar.Concluimos además que los dispositivos públicos o asociativos experimentados para lucharcontra la exclusión bancaria sólo coinciden con las necesidades de los excluidos para ciertosperfiles, en ciertos contextos. Por otra parte, la hipótesis de la continuidad de sus modelos denegocio no se puede confirmar.Por último, se argumenta y justifica que en lo que se refiere a los servicios financieros, unmodelo económico sostenible e integrador está condicionado por transformacionessocioeconómicas. La primera se halla en la formalización del acceso a la moneda como unservicio de interés general, la segunda procede de la rehabilitación del valor de los ahorros. Lainclusión financiera no pretende resolver el problema del nivel de recursos pero, considerandoque las necesidades de crédito de liquidez estén recurrentes, se mejora cuando se difundenofertas que evitan influir negativamente en las condiciones de vida de los deudores. Este es elobjetivo del modelo propuesto

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Beça, Miguel Alexandre Sousa Ferro de. "Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models." Master's thesis, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/7897.

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores
The current financial crisis has demonstrated that there is a need for financial accounting data in a format which can be rapidly analyzed and exchanged. The appearance of XBRL in 2000 has helped create a ‘de facto’ standard data format for the exchange of financial information. However, XBRL by itself is not capable of ensuring a common semantic for the exchange of accounting information. Additionally, the existence of different accounting standards in different countries is a hindrance to efficient analysis and evaluation of companies by international analysts or investors. Therefore, there is a need to not only use a more advanced data format, but also for tools which can facilitate the exchange of accounting data, in particular when different accounting standards are used. This dissertation presents a tuple-based semantic and structural mapping for interoperability establishment of financial information models based on the use of ontologies and a ‘Communication Mediator’. It allows the mapping of accounting concepts of different accounting standards to be stored in the ‘Communication Mediator’. The mapping stored contains an ATL code expression, which with the aid of model transformation tools, can be utilized to perform the mapping between two different accounting models.

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Zhou, Junhua, and 周俊华. "To survive and succeed in the risky financial world: applications of mathematical optimization in finance andinsurance." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2010. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B44407579.

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Rostagno, Luciano Martin. "APT versus modelo de fator de retorno esperado : a aplicação de duas ferramentas de previsão de retornos das ações na BOVESPA." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/3099.

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Apesar da grande evolução, a questão da precificação de ativos encontra-se ainda cercada de incertezas e indefinições quanto à forma como esta deve ser feita. A incerteza por parte dos investidores em relação aos resultados a serem obtidos em suas aplicações no mercado financeiro gera forte demanda por modelos mais precisos quanto à capacidade de quantificação do retorno esperado. Este trabalho procura, em uma análise preliminar, estudar, utilizando o tratamento estatístico de regressão múltipla, os fatores explicativos dos retornos diferenciais das ações na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa) no período de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 1999. Em seguida, visa-se analisar, através de um teste comparativo de desempenho envolvendo simulação de investimentos em portfolios de ações, a capacidade do Modelo de Fator de Retorno Esperado de Haugen e Baker (1996) e da APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) de Ross (1976) em prognosticar os retornos das 70 ações incluídas na amostra. Por fim, levanta-se o perfil de risco e liquidez dos portfolios selecionados pelos modelos a fim de verificar a relação risco-retorno. Os resultados apontaram sete fatores capazes de explicar o retorno diferencial mensal das ações. Contrapondo-se aos pressupostos teóricos, nenhum fator de risco inseriu-se no grupo de fatores selecionados. Já os fatores que apresentaram significância estatística em suas médias, dois inserem-se no grupo liquidez, três referem-se aos parâmetros de valor das ações e dois estão relacionados ao histórico de preços das ações. Comparando os resultados obtidos pelos modelos inseridos neste estudo, conclui-se que o Modelo de Fator de Retorno Esperado é mais eficiente na tarefa de predizer os retornos futuros das ações componentes da amostra. Este, além de ter alcançado uma média de retornos mensais superior, foi capaz de sustentar retorno acumulado superior ao da APT durante todo o período de teste (jan/2000 a dez/2002). Adicionalmente, o uso deste modelo permitiu selecionar portfolios com um perfil de menor risco.

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Mayor, Vitoria Fernando. "Project Finance and MCDM financial models: An application in renewable energy projects." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/73067.

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[EN] Academics, managerial and policy making community reinforce that renewable energy investments are one of the most effective instruments to attain CO2 emission reduction targets set by the Kyoto Protocol and by the recent Paris Agreement signed at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015 in which 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The problem of financing Renewable Energy (RE) projects has become a crucial issue for private and public decision makers worldwide. Budget constraints from governments and limited bank lending capacities have led to a reconsideration of the traditional financial instruments in the RE sector. The lack of credit makes impossible for commercial banks to fund RE projects with traditional loans. Research on new financing techniques for RE projects, such as Project Finance (PF) has gained interest in recent years. PF is a recent technique applied in large investments projects. During the last decades of the 20th century new public private partnership schemes enabled large infrastructure, energy and environmental projects. In these sectors PF has been used to reduce cost agency conflicts and better risk management. There is a wide number of contributions underlying the relevance of RE, however there is a lack of research on the financial aspects of RE projects. This research aims to make several contributions. First, to provide a better understanding of the PF technique and its use in the RE sector. Second, to fill the gap of research on financial aspects of RE in the literature by reviewing contributions of MCDM to RE project evaluation from the investor's perspective. Third, we propose a MPDM Moderate Pessimism Decision Making model, which adds to the rational financial evaluation of investment opportunities a set of non-financial factors that affects the investor's decisions. Finally, within the illustrative example, we apply this multi-criteria decision making process to help banks to decide if they must join a project or not.
[ES] Investigadores, comunidad empresarial y clase política destacan que la inversión en energías renovables es uno de los instrumentos más efectivos para alcanzar los objetivos de reducción de CO2 establecidos por el reciente acuerdo firmado en la conferencia de Paris (COP21) en diciembre de 2015, en el cual, 195 países adoptaron el primer acuerdo universal y jurídicamente vinculante de la historia. El problema de la financiación de los proyectos de energía renovable (RE) es un tema crucial para cualquier decisor público o privado. Las limitaciones presupuestarias de los gobiernos y la falta de crédito han provocado que se reconsideren los instrumentos de financiación en el sector de las RE, por lo tanto, la investigación en nuevas técnicas de financiamiento para los proyectos de RE, como Project Finance (PF) ha ganado interés en los últimos años. PF es una técnica que se aplica en grandes proyectos de inversión. A finales del Siglo XX, los nuevos esquemas de colaboración público-privadas han permitido llevar a cabo grandes proyectos de infraestructuras y de RE. En estos sectores, el PF se ha utilizado para reducir costes, conflictos y mitigar riesgos. Numerosas contribuciones científicas subrayan la importancia de la RE, sin embargo hay un vacío en la investigación sobre los aspectos financieros de los proyectos de RE. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo aportar varias contribuciones. En primer lugar, proporcionar una mejor comprensión de la técnica del PF y su uso en el sector de las RE. En segundo lugar, cubrir el vacío existente en la literatura sobre la investigación de los aspectos financieros de las RE mediante la revisión de las contribuciones sobre MCDM para la evaluación de los proyectos de RE desde el punto de vista del inversor. En tercer lugar, se propone un modelo MPDM (Moderate Pessimism Decision Making), el cual añade a la evaluación financiera racional de oportunidades de inversión, un conjunto de factores no financieros que afectan a las decisiones de los inversores. Finalmente, se aplica este modelo multicriterio de toma de decisiones para ayudar a decidir a los bancos si deben unirse al proyecto.
[CAT] Investigadors, comunitat empresarial i classe política, destaquen que la inversió en energies renovables és un dels instruments més efectius per assolir els objectius de reducció de les emissions de CO2 establerts pel recent acord signat a la conferència de Paris (COP21) al desembre de 2015, mitjançant el qual, 195 països van adoptar el primer acord universal i jurídicament vinculant de la història. El problema del finançament dels projectes d'energia renovable (RE) s'ha convertit en un tema crucial per a qualsevol decisor públics i privats. Les limitacions pressupostàries dels governs i La falta de crèdit han provocat que es reconsiderin els instruments de finançament en el sector de les RE, per tant, la investigació en noves tècniques de finançament per als projectes de RE, com el Project Finance (PF) ha guanyat interès en els últims anys. PF és una tècnica que s'aplica en grans projectes d'inversió. Durant les últimes dècades del Segle XX, els nous esquemes de col-laboració publico-privades han permès portar a terme grans projectes d'infraestructures i de RE. En aquests sectors, el PF s'ha utilitzat per reduir costos, conflictes i gestionar millor els riscos. Existeixen nombroses contribucions científiques que subratllen la importància de la RE, però hi ha un buit en la investigació pel que fa als aspectes financers dels projectes de RE. Aquesta tesis té com a objectiu aportar diverses contribucions. En primer lloc, proporcionar una millor comprensió de la tècnica del PF i el seu ús en el sector de les RE. En segon lloc, cobrir el buit existent en la literatura sobre la investigació dels aspectes financers de les RE mitjançant la revisió de les contribucions sobre MCDM per a l'avaluació dels projectes de RE des del punt de vista de l'inversor. En tercer lloc, es proposa un model MPDM Moderate Pessimism Decision Making, que afegeix a l'avaluació financera racional d'oportunitats d'inversió, un conjunt de factors no financers que afecten les decisions dels inversors. Finalment, mitjançant un exemple il-lustratiu, s'aplica aquest model multicriteri de presa de decisions per ajudar a decidir als bancs si han de unir-se al projecte.
Mayor Vitoria, F. (2016). Project Finance and MCDM financial models: An application in renewable energy projects [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/73067
TESIS

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Ortiz, Aparicio Antonio, and Tapia William Richard Sánchez. "Rigideces financieras y fluctuaciones económicas : un modelo de equilibrio general con intermediarios financieros." Master's thesis, Universidad del Pacífico, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11354/2282.

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En el presente documento se analizan los efectos de las rigideces financieras en la generación de fluctuaciones económicas. Se presenta un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico estocástico que incorpora intermediarios financieros en un entorno de competencia monopolística, los cuales enfrentan rigideces en la fijación de sus tasas de interés de depósitos y préstamos. El modelo planteado incorpora pérdidas por incumplimiento dependientes del ciclo económico que influyen en la fijación de las tasas de préstamos. Los resultados de las simulaciones numéricas muestran que la existencia de rigideces en la fijación de tasas genera traspaso incompleto de tasas de interés tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo, y son relevantes para explicar el comportamiento de las fluctuaciones económicas. Asimismo, se encuentra que en nuestro modelo, las rigideces en la fijación de la tasa de interés de depósitos tienen igual o mayor impacto que las rigideces en préstamos sobre las fluctuaciones económicas, debido a su impacto directo en la brecha producto, a diferencia de las rigideces en las tasas de préstamos que impactan marginalmente sobre la inflación. Finalmente, la incorporación de pérdidas por incumplimiento endógenas permite explicar por qué en presencia de rigideces en las tasas de préstamos, el traspaso de la tasa de referencia a las tasas de interés de préstamos puede ser menor a la unidad en el corto plazo, pero cercano o superior a la unidad en el largo plazo.

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Veit, Luís Henrique. "Crédito imobiliário : uma análise do modelo brasileiro em comparação com os modelos internacionais." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/54515.

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O sonho da casa própria é acalentado em todas as sociedades, sem importar as raízes culturais ou sociais. A questão é que a concretização desse sonho, normalmente a maior aquisição das pessoas ao longo de toda sua vida, envolve fatores ou recursos que nem sempre estão à disposição. Portanto, são necessários mecanismos que permitam esta aquisição, tais como o financiamento imobiliário. Esse trabalho espera trazer alguma luz sobre essa oportuna discussão. Nossa proposta é apresentar alguns exemplos de sociedade que conseguiram equacionar a problemática dos recursos financeiros, bem como tentar apresentar propostas de adequação ao modelo atual, as quais poderiam ser adotadas em nosso país.
The dream of home ownership is cherished in all societies, regardless of cultural or social roots. The point is that the realization of this dream, usually the biggest purchase of people throughout his life, involves factors or resources that are not always available. So, mechanisms are needed to possibility this acquisition, such as housing finance. This work hopes to bring some points on this timely discussion. Our proposal is to present some examples of societies that have managed to equate the issue of financial resources as well as trying to present proposals to adapt to the current model, which could be adopted in our country.

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Ngwenza, Dumisani. "Quantifying Model Risk in Option Pricing and Value-at-Risk Models." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31059.

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Financial practitioners use models in order to price, hedge and measure risk. These models are reliant on assumptions and are prone to ”model risk”. Increased innovation in complex financial products has lead to increased risk exposure and has spurred research into understanding model risk and its underlying factors. This dissertation quantifies model risk inherent in Value-at-Risk (VaR) on a variety of portfolios comprised of European options written on the ALSI futures index across various maturities. The European options under consideration will be modelled using the Black-Scholes, Heston and Variance-Gamma models.

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Ben, Jabeur Sami. "Statut de la faillite en théorie financière : approches théoriques et validations empiriques dans le contexte français." Phd thesis, Toulon, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00759632.

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Dans la conjoncture économique actuelle un nombre croissant de firmes se trouvent confrontées à des difficultés économiques et financières qui peuvent, dans certains cas, conduire à la faillite. En principe, les difficultés ne surviennent pas brutalement, en effet, avant qu'une entreprise soit déclarée en faillite, elle est confrontée à des difficultés financières de gravité croissante : défaut de paiement d'une dette, insolvabilité temporaire, pénurie de liquidité, etc. L'identification des causes de la défaillance n'est pas évidente, puisqu'on ne saurait énumérer de manière limitative les facteurs qui la provoquent. Les causes sont multiples et leur cumul compromet d'autant plus la survie de l'entreprise. L'importance de ce phénomène et son impact sur l'ensemble de l'économie justifie le besoin de le comprendre, l'expliquer en analysant les causes et les origines. L'objectif de notre étude est de classer les entreprises en difficulté selon leur degré de viabilité et de comprendre les causes de la dégradation de leur situation. Nous effectuerons une comparaison entre trois modèles (Analyse discriminante linéaire, le modèle Logit et la régression PLS) ce qui nous permettra à partir des taux de bon classement obtenus, de choisir le meilleur modèle tout en précisant l'origine et les causes de ces défaillances.

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Cachapa, Filipe Miguel de Mira Ferreira Marques. "Os determinantes do preço do petróleo crude e o papel da especulação financeira." Master's thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/26519.

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O preço do barril de petróleo crude representa uma série temporal de elevada volatilidade, que tem sido alvo de estudo por parte de diversos autores e investigadores. O estudo presente nesta dissertação de mestrado tem como objetivos: encontrar variáveis económicas e financeiras que influenciem significativamente o preço do barril de petróleo e ajudem a explicar as variações observáveis nessa série temporal; explorar o papel da especulação financeira relativamente à commodity em questão. Para tal, recorreu-se a técnicas de modelação financeira que permitiram analisar a influência de variáveis fundamentadas na literatura. Obteve-se um modelo VECM relativo às variáveis que revelaram poder ter uma relação de longo prazo com a variável dependente, e ainda um modelo ECM onde foram incluídas outras variáveis. As variáveis que se revelaram significativas foram o Consumo de Gás, o Consumo de Carvão, o Consumo de Petróleo e os PIB’s dos EUA e China; Abstract: The Determinants of Crude Oil Prices and the Role of Financial Speculation The price of the crude oil barrel represents a timeseries of high volatility, which has been studied by many authors and investigators. The research contained in this master’s dissertation has the following objectives: to reach economic and financial variables which significantly influence the oil barrel price and help explain that series’ observable variations; explore the role of financial speculation regarding the commodity in question. In order to do that, financial modeling techniques that allowed to analyze the influence of literature-based variables were applied. A VECM model regarding the variables that seemed to present a long-term relation with the dependent variable was obtained, and also an ECM model where other variables were included. The variables that showed a significant effect were the World Gas Consumption, the World Coal Consumption, the World Oil Consumption and the USA’s and China’s GDP’s.

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Serra, Ricardo Goulart. "Perda de valor das empresas listadas na Bovespa durante a crise financeira de 2008: uma análise sob a perspectiva da modelagem hierárquica linear." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12139/tde-26092011-182843/.

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Raros autores estudam as características das empresas e dos seus setores de atuação na explicação dos retornos das ações em períodos exclusivamente de crise. A escassez de trabalhos em períodos de crise pode ser considerada uma importante lacuna na literatura acadêmica, tendo em vista que as perdas são substanciais nestes períodos. O objetivo do presente trabalho é identificar características das empresas e dos seus setores de atuação que expliquem a queda dos preços das ações das empresas listadas na Bovespa durante a crise financeira de 2008. O período de crise escolhido começa em 20 de maio de 2008 (pico do Ibovespa) e termina em 27 de outubro de 2008 (vale do Ibovespa), com queda de 60%. São estudadas 135 empresas não financeiras, com informações disponíveis e eliminados outliers. Utilizou-se neste trabalho uma técnica multinível, Modelos Hierárquicos Lineares, para endereçar claramente a interação entre os dois níveis envolvidos na análise: empresas (1º nível: objeto) e setores (2º nível: contexto). Dada a pouca utilização desta técnica em estudos em administração, sua aplicação também é um diferencial do trabalho. Os resultados indicam a pertinência da escolha por esta técnica, pois se identificou que a variabilidade total dos retornos tem origem (i) em características das empresas (1º nível), correspondendo a 76,9% da variabilidade total e (ii) em características dos setores (2º nível), correspondendo a 23,1% da variabilidade total. O modelo final explica 39,9% da variabilidade total. As características das empresas que têm influência significativa no retorno das ações são: livro / mercado (valor contábil do patrimônio líquido / valor de mercado do patrimônio líquido), tamanho e iliquidez. As características dos setores que têm influência significativa no retorno das ações das empresas são: beta desalavancado, crescimento histórico da receita e ter ou não a tarifa regulada. Por fim, identificou-se que a característica setorial beta desalavancado modera a influência da característica da empresa livro / mercado no retorno das ações das empresas. Em outras palavras, o coeficiente angular da variável livro / mercado é diferente para os diversos setores, sendo que o impacto da variável livro / mercado no retorno é menos acentuado para empresas de setores com alto beta desalavancado.
Few authors study the role of firms and industries\' characteristics in explaining stock\'s returns exclusively in periods of crisis. The scarcity of such studies can be considered an important gap in the academic literature, given the substantial losses that one can experience during such periods. The objective of this study is to identify firms and industries\' characteristics that explain the decline in prices of stocks of companies listed in Bovespa during the 2008 financial crisis. The crisis period chosen begins on May 20, 2008 (Ibovespa\'s peak) and ends on October 27, 2008 (Ibovespa\'s valley), representing a decline of 60%. 135 non-financial companies, with information available and after the exclusion of outliers were studied. A multilevel technique was adopted: Hierarchical Linear Models, to clearly address the interaction between the two levels involved in the analysis: firms (1st level: object) and industries (2nd level: context). Given the low utilization of this technique in studies in business administration, its adoption is also a differential of this study. The results indicate the relevance of the technique\'s choice. It was identified that (i) 76.9% of the total variability is due to firms\' characteristics and (ii) 23.1% of the total variability is due to industries\' characteristics. The final model explains 39.9% of the total variability. Firms\' characteristics that have significant influence on stock returns are: book / market (book value of equity / market value of equity), size and illiquidity. Industries\' characteristics that have significant influence on stock returns are: unlevered beta, historical sales growth and whether or not the industry has a regulated tariff. Finally, it was found that industries\' characteristic unlevered beta moderates the influence of the firms\' characteristic book / market in stock returns. In other words, slope coefficient for the firms\' characteristic book / market is different between industries, with the impact of the variable book / market on stock return being less pronounced for companies in sectors with high unlevered beta.

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Melo, Filho Augusto Rodrigues Coutinho de. "Regulação financeira por objetivos: um modelo regulatório para o futuro?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/23934.

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O presente trabalho pretende investigar os diferentes modelos de regulação financeira, com foco no modelo de regulação por objetivos ou “twin peaks”, no contexto das recentes transformações na estrutura do mercado financeiro global, notadamente no que tange (i) ao surgimento de novos produtos e serviços que não são facilmente enquadrados em um segmento específico do mercado financeiro, podendo envolver concomitantemente funções típicas dos mercados bancário, de capitais e de seguros; e (ii) às mudanças nas características dos principais participantes que atuam nesse mercado, dentre as quais pode se destacar (ii.1) a unificação de organizações financeiras que atuavam em diferentes setores do mercado financeiro – bancos de investimento, bancos comerciais, corretoras, seguradoras etc. – resultando na formação de conglomerados financeiros; (ii.2) o ingresso de empresas de tecnologia que competem e fornecem serviços financeiros de modo inovador, desafiando os participantes clássicos deste mercado. As mudanças supracitadas são significativas do ponto de vista da estrutura de mercado, e devem ser observadas pelos reguladores a fim de avaliar a compatibilidade de suas respectivas estruturas regulatórias com os novos riscos advindos desse “novo mercado financeiro” em formação. Parte-se da premissa de que uma estrutura regulatória efetiva precisa se adequar à respectiva estrutura de mercado a qual se pretende regular, sob o risco de tal desalinhamento resultar em uma regulação excessivamente custosa e que não promove os objetivos para os quais foi criada. A hipótese deste trabalho é que o modelo de regulação por objetivos é o mais apto a propiciar uma regulação financeira efetiva, em contraposição aos modelos de regulação por setores e unificada, tendo em vista que sua estrutura regulatória: (i) permite a consecução dos múltiplos objetivos da regulação financeira de forma harmonizada, em um cenário de crescente complexificação dos riscos emanados do sistema financeiro, mitigando a possibilidade de sobreposição de objetivos dentro de uma mesma agência; e (ii) amplia o limite de aplicação da regulação, uma vez que os critérios jurídicos para determinação de competência dos reguladores não são vinculados a conceitos próprios dos setores bancário, securitário e de capitais, cuja divisão é cada vez menos perceptível do ponto de vista da prática financeira, na qual as atividades financeiras vêm sendo desenvolvidas de modo transversal. A fim de desenvolver a hipótese elencada, o trabalho se propõe, num primeiro momento, a fazer uma revisão da literatura teórica sobre modelos de regulação, com o objetivo de identificar as características que tornam um modelo regulatório “ótimo” do ponto de vista da efetividade. Após essa análise, parte-se para um exame das mudanças práticas pelas quais o mercado financeiro vem passando, e como elas afetam as diferentes estruturas de regulação vigentes – propiciando a emergência do modelo de regulação por objetivos como predominante em algumas jurisdições. Nesse contexto, a regulação por objetivos se coloca como uma opção a ser considerada pelos diferentes reguladores nacionais para enfrentar os novos riscos do mercado financeiro global e auxiliar o pleno desenvolvimento do mercado financeiro nas próximas décadas.
The present work intends to investigate the different models of financial regulation, focusing on the model of regulation by objectives or "twin peaks", in the context of the recent transformations in the structure of the global financial market, especially regarding (i) the emergence of new products and services that are not easily framed in a specific segment of the financial market, and can simultaneously develop typical functions of the banking, securities and insurance markets; and (ii) changes in the characteristics of the main participants in this market, among which (ii.1) the unification of financial organizations operating in different sectors of the financial market - investment banks, commercial banks, brokerage firms, insurance companies etc. - resulting in the formation of financial conglomerates; (ii.2) the entry of financial technology companies that compete and provide innovative services in competition with the classic participants of this market. The aforementioned changes should be interpreted as major changes in terms of market structure, and must be observed by regulators in order to assess the compatibility of their respective financial structures with the new risks arising from this "new financial market" in formation. The work is based on the theoretical premise that an efficient and effective regulatory structure needs to reflect the respective market structure that it is intended to regulate, under the risk that such misalignment will result in an empty regulation, without regulatory tools to promote the objectives for which it was created. The hypothesis of this work is that the model of regulation by objectives, as opposed to the unified- and sector-based models, is the most adequate to provide an efficient and effective financial regulation, especially considering that its regulatory structure: (i) enable the fulfillment of multiple objectives of financial regulation in a harmonized manner, in a stage where the complexity of risks emanating from the financial system are increasing, mitigating the possibility of objective overlap within the same agency; and (ii) expand the regulatory perimeters, since the legal criteria for determining the competence of regulators is not linked to concepts of the banking, security and capital sectors, whose distinction increasingly blurred from the point of view that most financial activities have been developed in a cross-sectored way. In order to develop this hypothesis, this dissertation proposes, firstly, to review the theoretical literature on regulation models, with the objective of identifying the characteristics that make a regulatory model “optimal” from the point of view of efficiency and effectiveness. After this analysis, we examine the practical changes happening in the financial market, and how they affect the different regulatory structures in force - propitiating the emergence of the regulation by objectives as the redominant model in some jurisdictions. In this context, regulation by objectives is an option to be considered by the different national regulators to face the new risks of the global financial market and to help the full development of financial markets in the coming decades

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Teixeira, Alexandre José. "Financial Value Added FVA: uma nova ferramenta para a medição do desempenho financeiro das empresas." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2010. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=6237.

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O objetivo dessa pesquisa é apresentar uma ferramenta alternativa ao valor econômico adicionado na mensuração da performance empresarial correlacionada com o valor de mercado. Na revisão da literatura apresenta-se o conceito de estrutura e custo de capital, utilizando a metodologia do CAPM e do APT. São igualmente apresentadas as principais medidas financeiras de desempenho tais como: retorno operacional sobre o investimento, retorno sobre o patrimônio liquido, retorno sobre os ativos, além de outras formas para cálculo do retorno. Na sequência introduzimos o conceito de lucro residual e o valor econômico adicionado, discutindo suas vantagens, desvantagens, dificuldades e limitações dessa ferramenta. Através do EVA podemos calcular o valor de mercado adicionado, fundamental para o cálculo do valor patrimonial ajustado. Também é apresentado nessa obra a interpretação do EVA pela ótica do modelo Fleuriet de planejamento financeiro. Após essa explanação teórica é apresentado o Financial Value Added proposto por esse trabalho, como alternativa ao Valor Econômico Adicionado na mensuração do desempenho empresarial. Essa ferramenta exclui da base de cálculo as receitas e despesas econômicas, uma vez que as mesmas em alguns casos distorcem o resultado como é constatado no teste com as empresas: Sadia S.A. e Perdigão S.A. onde os resultados foram 54% na Sadia e 13% na Perdigão superiores ao EVA. Em nenhum momento argumenta-se a substituição do EVA, apenas a introdução do FVA como alternativa nos casos em que o EVA não funcione adequadamente.

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Farro, Chumbes Daniel Alonso. "Diseño de un modelo de gestión del conocimiento para las cooperativas de ahorro y crédito de Lima Metropolitana." Bachelor's thesis, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, 2013. http://tesis.pucp.edu.pe/repositorio/handle/123456789/5218.

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Las Cooperativas de Ahorro y Crédito (CAC) de Lima Metropolitana se desenvuelven en una economía local en expansión y en un mercado financiero muy competitivo. En ese contexto, resulta imperativo adoptar nuevas herramientas de gestión para mejorar el desempeño organizacional y, como consecuencia, permanecer y desarrollarse en el mercado nacional. Uno de los retos cruciales para la sostenibilidad de las CAC es el manejo de sus activos del conocimiento más importantes. Debido a ello, en este estudio se plantea la necesidad de construir un modelo de Gestión del Conocimiento (GC) que guíe el análisis y la toma de decisión respecto a la gestión de los conocimientos críticos de dichas organizaciones. La metodología aplicada en la formulación del modelo de GC para las CAC de Lima Metropolitana fue estructurada en cinco fases. La primera de ellas consistió en elaborar, a partir de la revisión de la literatura, un modelo teórico de GC compuesto por los elementos que no serían sometidos a validación estadística. En la segunda fase, se realizó el diagnóstico de la situación actual de las CAC con base en el análisis de expertos. Por otro lado, la tercera fase comprendió el análisis estructural del sistema cooperativo, en el cual se identificaron las variables que determinarán su evolución. Considerando estas tres primeras etapas, en la cuarta fase se definieron los conocimientos críticos y la propuesta de mecanismos de GC. Por último, en la quinta fase, se realizó una encuesta a ejecutivos de las CAC para seleccionar los mecanismos a través de la validación estadística de los mismos. En función de lo obtenido en el desarrollo de la metodología, se estructuró un modelo que establece los siete componentes fundamentales de la GC en las CAC de Lima Metropolitana: factores condicionantes, elementos estratégicos, actores internos, procesos, mecanismos, conocimientos críticos y resultado esperado.
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Camargo, Marina Barboza. "Incerteza e restrição financeira nas decisões de investimento das firmas brasileiras." Universidade de São Paulo, 2011. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18157/tde-08092011-143739/.

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O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a presença da restrição financeira nas decisões de investimentos em condições de incerteza de um conjunto de 1223 empresas brasileiras no período de 1986 a 2006. A incerteza é incorporada no modelo de investimento considerando o comportamento das variáveis vendas e fluxo de caixa como um movimento browniano com drift. Além disso, a variável fluxo de caixa é analisada em baixa e alta incerteza, considerando três diferentes medidas para a incerteza: a variação anual do índice Ibovespa, o desvio-padrão de vendas e de fluxo de caixa. Já para considerar o efeito da restrição financeira sobre as decisões de investimento as firmas são agrupadas de acordo com o grau de intensidade de capital, tamanho da firma e grau tecnológico. A estimação dos parâmetros da equação do investimento é realizada considerando-se o modelo misto. O modelo misto, ainda não utilizado em estudos brasileiros na análise do comportamento das decisões de investimento, permite considerar a heterogeneidade nos coeficientes das variáveis independentes, o que evita o viés introduzido pela suposição de homogeneidade. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo mostraram uma maior sensibilidade do investimento ao fluxo de caixa para as firmas mais intensivas em capital, firmas de médio porte e firmas com alto grau tecnológico. Esses resultados se mantêm quando a variável fluxo de caixa é analisada em alta incerteza, ou seja, o investimento das firmas com alta intensidade de capital, médio porte e com alto grau tecnológico é mais sensível ao fluxo de caixa em condições de alta incerteza.
The aim of this research is to analyze the presence of financial constraints on investments decisions under uncertainty using data from 1223 Brazilian firms over the 1986 to 2006 period. Uncertainty is incorporated in the model of investment decisions considering the sales and cash flow variables, which are estimated by a stochastic equation of Brownian motion. In addition, the variable cash flow is grouped by high and low uncertainty according to annual rate of the Ibovespa index, the standard deviation of sales and cash flow. To consider the effects of financial constraints on firms investment decisions, this study used the degree of capital intensity, size, and the technological degree to classify firms. The investment equation parameters are estimated considering the mixed model. The mixed model, it has not yet been used in analysis of Brazilian firms, allows considering the heterogeneity on explanatory variables, which avoids the bias introduced by assumption of homogeneity. The results show greater sensitivity of investment to cash flow for more capital-intensive firms, medium and high-tech ones. These results keep when cash-flow variable is analyzed by high uncertainty, i.e, for these firms the investment is more sensitive to cash flow under higher uncertainty.

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Liu, Chunping. "Model responses to crisis : an investigation of a behavioural finance model and a financial frictions model using U.S. data." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2012. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/36618/.

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This thesis aims to examine the response of a behavioural finance model and a financial frictions model to the financial crisis which was triggered in 2007.This thesis will test both models by using indirect inference as an evaluation method.The results of this study show that,when compared with the rational expectation model, behavioural expectation does not improve the model's ability to explain the real world. Therefore, behavioural expectation is unable to respond to the current crisis to form expectations .However,the financial frictions model which is suggested by the literature is found to be an efficient model that improves the model's overall performance. This thesis finds that although financial shocks contribute to the out put gap variation during the crisis, it does not respond so much to the variations of inflation and policy. interest rate.

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Nohrouzian, Hossein, and Anne Karlén. "Lattice Approximations for Black-Scholes type models in Option Pricing." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-23511.

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This thesis studies binomial and trinomial lattice approximations in Black-Scholes type option pricing models. Also, it covers the basics of these models, derivations of model parameters by several methods under different kinds of distributions. Furthermore, the convergence of the binomial model to normal distribution, Geometric Brownian Motion and Black-Scholes model is discussed. Finally, the connections and interrelations between discrete random variables under the Lattice approach and continuous random variables under models which follow Geometric Brownian Motion are discussed, compared and contrasted.

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Roman, Danver Leonard. "An Information-Based Strategic Framework for Determining the Optimum Level of Project or Service Financing." Thesis, Online Access, 2008. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/usrfiles/modules/etd/docs/etd_gen8Srv25Nme4_1538_1264552917.pdf.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Modele financier'

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