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Journal articles on the topic 'Modèle Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR)'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 8 June 2024

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Klement, Rainer J., and Harald Walach. "Mathematical models, Pandemic Complexity and the Over-Estimation of Lives Saved by Covid-19 Vaccinations." Futures 148 (September 14, 2022): 103119. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7079330.

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In a recent modeling study Watson et al. (Lancet Infect Dis 2022;3099:1–10) claim that Covid-19 vaccinations have helped to prevent roughly 14-20 million deaths in 2021. This conclusion is based on an epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SEIRS) model trained on partially simulated data and extrapolated to a hypothetical scenario in which no vaccinations would have occurred. We point out several caveats of this model and caution against believing in its implications. In particular, the model was calibrated on uncertain data, leading to a potentially false

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2

Muhammad, Achirul Nanda, Faricha Anifatul, Maghfirotul Ulyah Siti, et al. "The susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for long-term identification of key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 in Indonesia." International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) 12, no. 3 (2022): 2900–2910. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v12i3.pp2900-2910.

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The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has spread massively to almost all countries including Indonesia, in just a few months. An important step to overcoming the spread of the COVID-19 is understanding its epidemiology through mathematical modeling intervention. Knowledge of epidemic dynamics patterns is an important part of making timely decisions and preparing hospitals for the outbreak peak. In this study, we developed the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) model, which incorporates the key epidemiological parameters to model and estimate the long-term spread of the COVID-19. The prop

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3

Nguyen, Hoang-Sy, Thu-Ngan T. Phan, and Cong-Danh Huynh. "Deep learning application for real-time prediction of COVID-19 outbreak with susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased model." Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 28, no. 1 (2022): 567–76. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v28.i1.pp567-576.

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Due to the complex nature of a pandemic such as COVID-19, forecasting how it would behave is difficult, but it is indeed of utmost necessity. Furthermore, adapting predictive models to different data sets obtained from different countries and areas is necessary, as it can provide a wider view of the global pandemic situation and more information on how models can be improved. Therefore, we combine here the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model and the traditional susceptible-infected-recovered-deceased (SIRD) model for the COVID-19 prediction task in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. In particular, LST

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4

Marline, Ilha da Silva, Chaves Marques Joice, Otazu Conza Adelaida, De Cezaro Adriano, and Carla Ferreira Nicola Gomes Ana. "The Stiffness Phenomena for the Epidemiological SIR Model: a Numerical Approach." Latin-American Journal of Computing 10, no. 2 (2023): 32–45. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8067335.

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Mathematical models are among the most successful strategies for predicting the dynamics of a disease spreading in a population. Among them, the so-called compartmental models, where the total population is proportionally divided into compartments, are widely used. The SIR model (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) is one of them, where the dynamics between the compartments follows a system of nonlinear differential equations. As a result of the non-linearity of the dynamics, it has no analytical solution. Therefore, some numerical methods must be used to obtain an approximate solution. In this co

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5

Suryo, Widodo, Agus Sulistyono Bambang, and Katminingsih Yuni. "Numerical Simulation of Infectious Disease Spread Using the SIR Model: an Application of Euler's Method." International Journal of Mathematics and Computer Research 13, no. 02 (2025): 4894–98. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14929055.

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The spread of infectious diseases is a very complex phenomenon and requires mathematical modeling to understand the dynamics of the spread. One of the common approaches used to model the spread of diseases is the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model. This study aims to implement numerical methods, especially the Euler method, to simulate the spread of infectious diseases using the SIR model. This study focuses on the application of Euler's Method to solve differential equations that describe the changes in infected, susceptible, and recovered populations in a finite system. The Euler met

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6

ElMoussaoui, Ali, Mohamad Hamieh, Hassan Ayoub, Hicham Aboudaya, and Zeinab Hamie. "Impact of Social Behavior on the Dynamic Spread Sars-Cov-2 in Lebanon According to the SIR Model." Euroasia Journal of Mathematics, Engineering, Natural & Medical Sciences 9, no. 24 (2022): 1–18. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7364583.

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Analyzing the dynamics of Sars-Cov-2 spread in the Lebanese society is what this article mainly aspires and points to, where the study was predicated on a compartmental model, namely SIR, the widely known model in epidemiology. SIR. (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) materializes a basic conceptional structure for theoretically investigating the virus spread and its dynamics within a community, through focusing on the interaction and communication between infected and recovered people. Consequently, providing the necessary attempts to overcome the epidemic, and diminishes its expansion to rescue

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7

Madge, Jennifer Y., and Jhelly R. Pérez. "Analysis and simulation of an extended SEIR mathematical model with vaccination for the spread of SARS-COV-2." Selecciones Matemáticas 9, no. 01 (2022): 121–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.17268/sel.mat.2022.02.09.

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This article analyzes the dynamic of an extended SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19 considering a system of 7 differential equations whose stages are susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, dead and vaccinated. The necessary and sufficient conditions are determined for non-negativity, delimitation, existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model, local stability of the equilibrium points and the next generation matrix method. The simulations made in Python complement the qualitative analysis of the mathematical model to conclude the behavior of the virus spread over ti

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8

Moisés, Filiberto Mora Murillo, Alfredo Mora Murillo Walter, and Pandey Digvijay. "Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador." Enfoque UTE 11, no. 4 (2020): 101–15. https://doi.org/10.29019/enfoqueute.v11n4.678.

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In Ecuador, in the Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas province, a Special Operations Committee (SOC) was created to take containment measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research deals with an analysis of the possible spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus causing the infectious disease caused by new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model as a prediction method according to the rigor of the containment measures evaluated. with the acceptability of people through a survey (95 %, CI) in which three par

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9

Vargas-Pichón, Humberto B., Edson A. Coayla-Teran, and Edgar Tejada-Vásquez. "The SIRD epidemiological model applied to study the spread of the COVID-19 in the Peruvian region of Tacna." Selecciones Matemáticas 9, no. 01 (2022): 137–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.17268/sel.mat.2022.01.10.

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In the present paper, the SIR epidemiological model was used to study the behavior of the spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Tacna Region. To determine the parameters of the model, the information published through social networks by the Regional Health Directorate of the Tacna Region of Peru was used, which was systematized in an EXCEL matrix and then exported to process the information in the System of Scientific Computing Mathematica. As a result, the graphs corresponding to the model referred to the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals from the COVID-19 Pandemic in

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10

Senad, Orhani. "Use of Mathematical Models in Epidemiology to Predict Infectious." Partners Universal Multidisciplinary Research Journal (PUMRJ) 01, no. 04 (2024): 96–111. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14208781.

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Mathematical models play a key role in epidemiology, providing a powerful tool for predicting and controlling the spread of infectious diseases. This paper examines the use of mathematical models to analyze the dynamics of infectious diseases, assess the impact of health interventions, and predict future outbreaks. Initially, the structure of basic models such as SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and their modifications to take into account factors such as population heterogeneity, social networks, and seasonal changes will be discussed. Next, model parameterization and calibration techni

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11

Pataro, Igor, Morato Marcelo Menezes, da Costa Marcus V. Americano, and Julio Elias Normey-Rico. "A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil." ISA Transactions 124 (December 8, 2020): 197–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isatra.2020.12.012.

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The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first registered in Brazil by the end of February 2020. Since then, the country counts over 150000 deaths due to COVID-19 and faces a profound social and economic crisis; there is also an ongoing health catastrophe, with the majority of hospital beds in many Brazilian cities currently occupied with COVID-19 patients. Thus, a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) scheme used to plan appropriate social distancing measures (and relaxations) in order to mitigate the effects of this pandemic is formulated in this paper. The strategy is designed upon an adapted data-driv

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12

Usmani, Moiz, Kyle D. Brumfield, Yusuf Jamal, Anwar Huq, Rita R. Colwell, and Antarpreet Jutla. "A Review of the Environmental Trigger and Transmission Components for Prediction of Cholera." Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 6, no. 3 (2021): 147. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed6030147.

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Climate variables influence the occurrence, growth, and distribution of Vibrio cholerae in the aquatic environment. Together with socio-economic factors, these variables affect the incidence and intensity of cholera outbreaks. The current pandemic of cholera began in the 1960s, and millions of cholera cases are reported each year globally. Hence, cholera remains a significant health challenge, notably where human vulnerability intersects with changes in hydrological and environmental processes. Cholera outbreaks may be epidemic or endemic, the mode of which is governed by trigger and transmiss

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13

Cheng, Tianyu, Sanyi Tang, and Robert A. Cheke. "Threshold Dynamics and Bifurcation of a State-Dependent Feedback Nonlinear Control Susceptible–Infected–Recovered Model1." Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics 14, no. 7 (2019). http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.4043001.

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A classic susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model with nonlinear state-dependent feedback control is proposed and investigated in which integrated control measures, including vaccination, treatment and isolation, are applied once the number of the susceptible population reaches a threshold level. The interventions are density dependent due to limitations on the availability of resources. The existence and global stability of the disease-free periodic solution (DFPS) are addressed, and the threshold condition is provided, which can be used to define the control reproduction number Rc for the

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14

Dimiter, Prodanov. "Computational aspects of the approximate analytic solutions of the SIR model: applications to modelling of COVID-19 outbreaks." June 20, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-023-08656-8.

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The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) is one of the simplest models for epidemic outbreaks. The present paper derives the parametric solution of the model in terms of quadratures and derives a double exponential analytical asymptotic solution for the I-variable, which is valid on the entire real line. Moreover, the double exponential solution can be used successfully for parametric estimation either in stand-alone mode or as a preliminary step in the parametric estimation using numerical inversion of the parametric solution. A second, refined, asymptotic s

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15

PUCI, MARIANGELA VALENTINA, FEDERICA LOI, OTTAVIA ELEONORA FERRARO, STEFANO CAPPAI, SANDRO ROLESU, and CRISTINA MONTOMOLI. "COVID-19 Trend Estimation in the Elderly Italian Region of Sardinia." FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, April 24, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00153.

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December 2019 saw a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from China quickly spread globally. Currently, COVID-19, defined as the new pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), has reached over 750,000 confirmed cases worldwide. The virus began to spread in Italy from the 22nd February, and the number of related cases is still increasing. Furthermore, given that a relevant proportion of infected people need hospitalization in Intensive Care Units, this may be a crucial issue for National Healthcare System’s capacity. WHO underlines the importance of specific disease regional estimates. Beca

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16

Shi, Xuan-Li, Feng-Feng Wei, and Wei-Neng Chen. "A swarm-optimizer-assisted simulation and prediction model for emerging infectious diseases based on SEIR." Complex & Intelligent Systems, November 16, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40747-022-00908-1.

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AbstractMechanism-driven models based on transmission dynamics and statistic models driven by public health data are two main methods for simulating and predicting emerging infectious diseases. In this paper, we intend to combine these two methods to develop a more comprehensive model for the simulation and prediction of emerging infectious diseases. First, we combine a standard epidemic dynamic, the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) model with population migration. This model can provide a biological spread process for emerging infectious diseases. Second, to determine suitable pa

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17

Fayzan, Ahmed. "S-I-R Model and COVID-19 Data-Based Numerical Ro Estimation for Pandemic Modeling." Sir Syed University Research Journal of Engineering & Technology 12, no. 02 (2022). https://doi.org/10.33317/ssurj.384.

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A contagious disease transmits from human to human or animal to human. At present world is encountered with such a disease, known as COVID-19. More than half a million people have died due to this pandemic. The pandemic started in China and spread within no time to other parts of the world. Italy and USA are the most unfortunate countries as a large number of deaths occurred in these two countries. No doubt this contagious disease has created social as well as economic problems all over the world, especially in underdeveloped countries. The disease easily transmits to a healthy person during s

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