Relevant bibliographies by topics / Models of political cycle

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Academic literature on the topic 'Models of political cycle'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 1 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Models of political cycle"

1

Garratt, Dean. "Qualifications to Political Business Cycle Models." Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics 6, no. 1 (1995): 23–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/02601079x9500600102.

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The paper analyses the principal four model types that comprise the political business cycle literature. Political business cycle models can be classified according to the political motivations of opportunism and ideology as well as by the nature of the expectations that individuals are assumed to hold. Using this classification we pay particular attention to the underlying assumptions of the models. The paper concludes that a satisfactory model while incorporating the possibility of both ideological and opportunistic behaviour must also consider the appropriate indicator to which government reacts. Any errors within the article are wholly mine and should be addressed as should all welcome comments to myself at the Public Sector Economics Research Centre, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, U.K.
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Tkáčová, Andrea, Beáta Gavurová, and Viliam Kováč. "POLITICAL-ECONOMIC CYCLE MODELS OF ECONOMY OF GREECE." Journal of Business Economics and Management 19, no. 5 (2018): 742–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.7068.

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The political-economic cycle can be caused as the consequence of the wrong political decisions, made with the aim of re-election and maintaining the political power. These decisions influence the macroeconomic indicators of the country and their presence is problematic in the advanced economies. The main objective of this study is to verify the existence of the political-economic cycle model in the case of Greece and to identify the type of this cycle. The basement is given by the approach of Alesina and Roubini (1992), which observes the relationship between the political dummy variables and the selected macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, unemployment rate and inflation rate. The eight linear regression models are developed in the R software environment, while the three of them are opportunistic and the five are ideological. These models are identified as statistically significant and according to the methodology, tested for the presence of serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and residual normality. As the models do not confirm the presence of an opportunistic or ideological political-economic cycle, according to the data, the influence of the political parties on changes in the macroeconomic variables before the election is not proved for the case of Greece.
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Schultz, Kenneth A. "The Politics of the Political Business Cycle." British Journal of Political Science 25, no. 1 (1995): 79–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400007079.

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Existing models of the political business cycle have performed poorly in empirical tests because they have misspecified the interests of their primary actors – the incumbent politicians. While these models assume that governments face similar incentives to manipulate the economy at each election, governments' incentives can in fact vary from election to election depending upon their political needs at the time. The more likely the government is to be re-elected, the less it can gain by inducing cycles that are costly because of their impact on both the government's reputation and future macroeconomic performance. The degree to which the government manipulates the economy should thus be negatively correlated with its political security going into the election.This prediction is tested by examining transfer payments in Great Britain, 1961–92. While a traditional model that is insensitive to the government's political needs finds no evidence of politically-motivated manipulations, a model which takes these factors into account reveals a robust, and at times sizeable, electoral-economic cycle.
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Garratt, Dean, and Joshy Easaw. "Externalities and the Political Business Cycle." Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics 7, no. 2 (1996): 127–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/02601079x9600700203.

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Political business cycle theories in modelling the interaction between the polity and the economic system have continually failed to consider questions of economic and political interdependence between nations. In considering the current principal political business cycle models we ask how the reality of integrated economies affects the implications of these models. This is particularly important given the direction of the European Union (EU). The purpose here is to generate a series of hypotheses for future research and for empirical analysis and to show the short-comings of political business cycle models that are purely domestically-focused.
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Haynes, Stephen E., and Joe A. Stone. "POLITICAL MODELS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE SHOULD BE REVIVED." Economic Inquiry 28, no. 3 (1990): 442–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1990.tb01233.x.

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Praščević, Aleksandra. "The Applicability of Political Business Cycle Theories in Transition Economies." Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business 23, s1 (2020): 73–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/zireb-2020-0024.

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Abstract The paper focuses the applicability of political cycles theories in specific circumstances of economies in transition which are at the same time the new democracies. Economic and political transition in these countries change both people’s and politicians’ preferences, institutions and generate specific politically motivated misuse of economic policymaking. Theories of political cycles in macroeconomics have been developed since 1970s, when the fact that policymakers could use economic policy as an efficient tool for increasing their chances for reelection became obvious. In countries with parliamentary democracies, incentives of policymakers to influence election results could be opportunistically motivated (opportunistic models) or ideologically motivated (partisan models). On the other side, voters could be naïve or rational, with different economic outcomes, as argued in extensive political cycles literature. The paper studies specific political motives of politicians in transition economies which are faced, especially in first fazes of transition with weak institutional mechanism and rules, and naïve voters. Consequently, opportunistic motives dominate ideological ones. The paper also focuses how the development of the institutional environment, especially in the context of international integration, such as accession to the European Union, reflects on the political business cycles in these countries.
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Williams, John T. "The Political Manipulation of Macroeconomic Policy." American Political Science Review 84, no. 3 (1990): 767–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1962766.

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Conventional wisdom and some research indicate that macroeconomic policies follow cycles corresponding to political, as well as economic, forces. Using vector autoregression analysis, I test three models of monetary policy determination for the United States, 1953–1984: the electoral cycle model (that reelection motivations on the part of presidents create a policy cycle), the party differences model (that policy changes reflect revolving presidential party administrations), and the referendum model (that changes in presidential approval create, in effect, a continuing referendum, allowing presidents to monitor their success and change macroeconomic policies when necessary). Analysis shows that monetary policies, as measured by the monetary base and short-term interest rates, respond to the election cycle and presidential approval (although the effect on macroeconomic outcomes is ambiguous). Party differences are found in real income but are not very significant in other variables.
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Ekomie, Jean-Jacques Tony, and Assoumou Ondo. "Political Budget Cycles: The Case of Gabon." Research in World Economy 10, no. 1 (2019): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v10n1p31.

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This article analyzes the political-fiscal cycle in Gabon. In Africa, it seems that the analysis of the politico-fiscal cycle has not attracted much interest. This is particularly the case in Gabon, a small country of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (EMCCA). Unlike approaches based on the estimation of a single model linking the electoral cycle and a dimension of the state budget, we estimate four models each incorporating a different dimension of the state budget, namely: capital expenditures, total expenditures and the budget deficit. The estimation of a VAR Model (2) and three Error Correction Vector Models (ECVM) confirms the existence of an "opportunistic" politico-budgetary cycle in Gabon.
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Moita, Rodrigo M. S., and Claudio Paiva. "Political Price Cycles in Regulated Industries: Theory and Evidence." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 5, no. 1 (2013): 94–121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.1.94.

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The early work of Stigler (1971) treats the regulatory process as the arbitration of conflicting economic and political interests rather than a pure welfare-maximizing effort. This paper builds on these ideas and models the regulatory process as a game where the industry-lobby, consumers-voters, and a regulator-politician interact to define the regulated price, in alternating electoral and non-electoral periods. The equilibrium that emerges consists of a fully rational political price cycle in a regulated industry. Using monthly data for regulated gasoline and electricity prices from Brazil, we find strong evidence pointing towards the existence of electoral price cycles in both markets. (JEL D72, L51, L71, L78, L94, L98, O14)
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Linnemann, Ludger, and Andreas Schabert. "PRODUCTIVE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE IN MONETARY BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS." Scottish Journal of Political Economy 53, no. 1 (2006): 28–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9485.2006.00369.x.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Models of political cycle"

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Garratt, Dean. "Qualifying political business cycle models : the partisan indicator model." Thesis, University of Leicester, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35483.

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The thesis begins by considering the established political business cycle models. There are five such models: (i) the pure political business cycle; (ii) strong partisan theory; (iii) conventional weak partisan theory; (iv) rational partisan theory; and (v) the rational political business cycle. We consider carefully the assumptions upon which these models are based, particularly their modelling of the government's objective function. This function is typically characterised as either opportunistic or ideological. Only conventional weak partisan theory attempts to analyse the switch mechanism between opportunism and ideology. There is little empirical evidence to support the belief that either opportunism or ideology alone has consistently affected economic outcomes and general government expenditures in the UK. Therefore, we focus on the trade-off between opportunism and ideology and its effect on UK general government expenditures. We argue that in modelling the switch between opportunism and ideology we need to consider the components of a re-election index as well as a series of qualifying indicators. These combine to define values of a qualified differential. We, therefore, develop the partisan indicator model. We stress that political business cycle theorists need to consider carefully what is meant by politically expedient behaviour. The creation of cycles need not equate with political expedience. Our other main concern is the effect of economic and political interdependencies between nations, not only on the implications of established political business cycle models, but also on the partisan indicator model. Therefore, political business cycle theorists need to look at an internationalisation of the literature.
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Joska, Jan. "Politický cyklus v období hospodářské krize." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-71754.

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The diploma thesis analyzes, whether became in the case of the development of real GDP, inflation and unemployment in the Czech Republic and the USA to systematic influence these macroeconomic indicators of the ruling parties and their political orientation. The work is focused on the period from the beginning of the 1990's of 20th century to the present, with an emphasis on the pre-crisis and crisis periods of the current economic crisis. Tested are two fundamental theoretical concepts. The first one is a model of opportunistic theories of the business cycle, then the second one, the model of the ideological theory of the economic cycle. The work also analyzes whether there was in these two states deliberate influencing of government expenditure in electoral periods in order to increase the chances of government politicians for re-election. The work also explores the similarities and differences of the pre-crisis and crisis periods of the current economic crisis to the great depression of the 1930's of 20th century.
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Koman, Martin. "Politický cyklus v zemích EU." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-72251.

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The aim of my thesis "Politic cycle in the European Union countries" is to analyse the possibility of existence of a politic cycle in chosen countries of the EU. The firs half of my thesis is introducing the issue of the public choise theory and different views at this theory together with models of politic cycle. The other part I am dealing with is political and economic backrounds of chosen countried in closer detail and after data analysis of politic-economic development I would like to try to point out possible existence of political cycle. I will use model of politic cycle based on budget policy above all in the analysis.
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Vanayan, Cara. "Humanitarian intervention and the failure to protect: Sham compliance and the limitations of the norm life cycle model." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/27737.

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This thesis examines the norm of humanitarian intervention and argues that Finnemore and Sikkink's norm life cycle model is an insufficient explanation of the norm, due to its inability to take into account the potential for sham compliance. It demonstrates how three main instruments of codification---the UN Charter, the Genocide Convention, and the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine---have been interpreted to permit states to fake compliance. The analysis of six cases of intervention---Somalia, Bosnia pre-Srebrenica, Rwanda, Bosnia post-Srebrenica, Kosovo and Darfur---reveal that states will look for ways to interpret legal instruments to fake compliance in cases where the norm conflicts with state interests and/or when there is a high potential for casualties. A refinement of the norm life cycle model suggests the need for an intermediary stage between the stages of norm cascade and internalization in order to account for slow or partial behavioural change.
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Falk, Nathan R. "Policy Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment in the United States." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2014. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/885.

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For almost 40 years, scholars have sought to determine how elections affect the economy. Recently, certain studies have focused on the effect of political uncertainty on the economy. This paper focuses specifically on the effect of political uncertainty on business investment. We use 30 years of data from the U.S. states to show that policy uncertainty leads to significant declines in business fixed investment, sometimes referred to as “irreversible investment.” Moreover, we find that the magnitude of the decline in investment depends on the level of policy uncertainty. These results support predictions for “Electoral Investment Theory” and the existence of reverse political business cycles more generally.
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Garza, Casado Miguel Maria. "The Political Economy of Pre-Electoral Coalitions." The Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1583759580393628.

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PIAZZA, SANTINO. "Saggi sull'Economia Politica della Finanza Locale nei Comuni Italiani." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/853.

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Il primo capitolo offre un sommario della letteratura teorica ed empirica relative ai cicli di bilancio a livello nazionale e locale, iniziando dai primi cicli politici di bilancio detti “tradizionali” fino ad arrivare ai modelli detti di “political agency”. Viene discusso il filone di letteratura che scaturisce da quest’ultimo tipo di modellistica, cominciando dai primi modelli di segnalazione fino ai più recenti modelli teorici sull’effetto di selezione e di disciplina svolto dalle elezioni politiche. Un’enfasi particolare viene data alla rassegna dei test empirici basati su quest’ultimo tipo di modellistica e, in particolare, sul nesso tra decentralizzazione e trasparenza a livello locale. Il secondo capitolo è incentrato sulle tematiche del ciclo elettorale relativo alla tassazione e alla spese in un campione di comuni italiani. Le stime econometriche indicano un forte ciclo elettorale relativo alla tassa comunale sugli immobili (ICI) e, utilizzando le predizioni teoriche dei modelli a informazione incompleta sul differente comportamento dei sindaci che possono correre per un secondo turno e di quelli che sono invece impossibilitati a ricandidarsi, viene mostrato come i sindaci al primo turno che possono ricandidarsi manipolano in maniera più intensa l’imposta comunale sugli immobili applicata alla prima casa. Le stime effettuate sul comportamento differente dei sindaci con limite di mandato e senza limite di mandato, relative alle scelte di tassazione applicate alla base imponibile ICI ordinaria, indicano pure la presenza di un effetto di disciplina di partito. Questo capitolo, inoltre, compie un passo avanti rispetto a precedenti stime sui cicli elettorali fondati solo sulla dinamica delle spese correnti e in conto capitale senza tenere in considerazione la natura di competenza o cassa delle poste di bilancio corrispondenti. Sono presentate alcune evidenze in merito all’esistenza di un ciclo elettorale nella spesa in conto capitale registrata in contabilità come di cassa. Viene fornito anche un test econometrico sull’effetto dei vincoli del patto di stabilità interno sui comportamenti di spesa dei comuni. Nell’ultimo capitolo, sono ulteriormente approfonditi i risultati presentati nel secondo capitolo relativi alle scelte differenti dei comuni sulle aliquote ICI ordinaria e prima casa, esplorando il nesso tra cicli opportunistici razionali e trasparenza degli strumenti fiscali. Viene presentato un modello formale a informazione incompleta che predice come gli incentivi politici per usare due diversi strumenti fiscali possono essere diversi, a seconda delle caratteristiche di trasparenza annesse ai medesimi strumenti. Le predizioni teoriche sottoposte a stima empirica sono le seguenti: 1) i sindaci al primo mandato utilizzano maggiormente l’addizionale IRPEF introdotta per i comuni nel 1999 rispetto ai sindaci che non possono più correre; 2) il turnover politico dovrebbe diminuire dopo la riforma che ha introdotto l’addizionale IRPEF e, in particolare, per i sindaci che usano maggiormente tale strumento; 3) la riforma dovrebbe agevolare la decisione dei sindaci di correre per un secondo mandato, essendo agevolata la probabilità di rielezione. I test empirici presentati utilizzando un campione di comuni italiani confermano le predizioni teoriche contenute nel modello.<br>The first chapter reviews the theoretical and empirical literature about political budget cycles at national and local level, starting from earlier traditional political business cycles models to political agency models. This last strand of literature is discussed, starting from earlier signalling models to the more recent advancements in theoretical predictions about the selection and disciplining effect of elections on politicians. A particular emphasis is given to the full review of empirical tests based on political agency models predictions about the links between accountability and decentralization, especially at the local level. The second chapter focuses on the issues of electoral cycles in taxes and expenditures for a sample of Italian municipalities. Econometric estimates show a strong electoral cycle on municipal property tax, and extending political agency models' implications about the differences in tax-setting behavior between first- and second-term mayors, evidence is shown of a stronger electoral manipulation of property rates applied to main residence tax base when mayors run for re-election. Estimation of property tax rates' sensitivity to term-limited mayors' fiscal behaviors also uncovers a party discipline effect on tax rates applied to business and non homeowner property tax base. Furthermore, this chapter goes beyond previous econometric estimates of expenditure cycles focusing solely on the dynamics of current and capital expenditures without taking into account the basis on which outlays are recorded in local budgets. Some preliminary evidence points to the existence of an electoral cycle in cash-recorded budgetary investment outlays. An econometric test on the effect of formal expenditures restraints on municipal spending behaviors concludes the chapter. In the last chapter, results from the second chapter relative to business and main residence property tax rates’ choices are further investigated, exploring the link between opportunistic rational cycles and accountability of tax instruments. A formal political agency model predicts that the political incentives for using the two different property taxes may be different, according to their level of transparency. Three empirically testable implications derives from theoretical predictions: 1) first-term mayors should use a local income tax surcharge, introduced in 1999 in Italy, more than second-term mayors; 2) political turnover should be lower following the reform, and in particular for mayors using more the local income tax surcharge and 3) the reform might also affect the decision to run again by mayors, as it should be easier to get re-elected after the reform. Empirical estimates using a sample of Italian municipalities are presented, confirming theoretical predictions of the model.
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Breuss, Fritz. "A Common Election Day for Euro Zone Member States?" Europainstitut, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2007. http://epub.wu.ac.at/884/1/document.pdf.

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This paper tests for the Euro zone the hypothesis put forward by Sapir and Sekkat (1999) that synchronizing elections might improve welfare. After identifying a political budget cycle in the Euro zone we build a politico-macroeconomic model and simulate the effects of adopting a common election day in the 12 Euro zone member states. The results support most of the theoretical predictions by Sapir-Sekkat: (i) Synchronizing the elections could enhance GDP growth, reduce unemployment, but leads to increased inflation and in some countries to a deterioration of the budget; higher inflation forces ECB to monetary restrictions. (ii) If the synchronization happens asymmetrically - either only in the large or only in the small Euro zone countries - the result depends on the size of the spillovers. (iii) As anticipated in Sapir -Sekkat a common election day is a further step towards the desired "European business cycle", however, at the cost of increasing its amplitude. Harmonizing elections is another method of policy coordination. Whether this leads to higher welfare is a matter of weighting the different macroeconomic outcomes and it also depends on the model applied. (author's abstract)<br>Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Stone, Harry James. "THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH: ANALYZING THE “TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOAD” PROCESS IN THE UPPER MILL CREEK (CINCINNATI)." Oxford, Ohio : Miami University, 2004. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=miami1082567599.

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Rua, Sandra Cristina Camacho Gomes. "Essays in macroeconomics with general equilibrium models." Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7543.

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Doutoramento em Economia<br>Modelos de equilíbrio geral são largamente usados na academia e em instituições internacionais. Aqui, questões relacionadas com reformas estruturais, o limite inferior das taxas de juro e sua relação com opções de política são analisadas com um modelo de larga escala. Os principais resultados são: reformas estruturais unilaterais são benéficas e coordenação nacional tem vantagens; com as taxas de juro no limite inferior, políticas orçamentais e estruturais podem aliviar uma recessão e reduzir o tempo em que esse limite é activo. Mas a eficácia depende do instrumento orçamental e das características das reformas. Seguidamente, modelos estimados de media-escala são usados para avaliar a importância de choques antecipados nos EUA. Primeiro, avalia-se o papel destes choques na dinâmica do mercado habitacional e conclui-se que são importantes nas flutuações deste mercado e em particular nos ciclos de boom-bust. Expectativas de inquéritos sao usadas como validação externa do modelo. Depois, o papel de choques antecipados de politica monetária e analisado num modelo de ciclo económico. Conclui-se que melhoram a desempenho do modelo sem causar problemas de identificação; explicam uma percentagem maior das flutuações das variáveis observadas que choques não antecipados de politica monetária; e ajudam a melhor replicar covariâncias de algumas variáveis.<br>General equilibrium models are widely used in academia and policy institutions. Here, issues related to structural reforms, the zero lower bound and its interaction with policy options are analysed with a large-scale calibrated model of the euro area. The main find- ings are: unilateral structural reforms are beneficial and cross-country coordination has advantages; at the zero bound, fiscal and structural policies can alleviate a recession and reduce the time spent at the bound but their effectiveness depends on the fiscal instrument and the design of the reforms. Then, medium-scale estimated models are used to assess the importance of news shocks in the US. First, the role of news in housing market dynamics is investigated. Results show that news shocks are important for housing market fiuctua- tions, and in particular boom-busts cycles. Survey-based expectations are used as external validation of the model. Then, the role of monetary policy news shocks is analysed in a business cycle model. Results show they improve the performance of the model without leading to identification problems; they account for a larger fraction of the fiuctuations in observables than the unanticipated monetary policy shock; and they help to achieve a better matching of the covariances of some observables.
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Books on the topic "Models of political cycle"

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Borgne, Eric Le. Candidate entry, screening, and the political budget cycle. International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Department, 2002.

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Emberton, Paul C. L. The political business cycle in the U.K. 1952 - 1970. St. Salvator's College, 1993.

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Alesina, Alberto. Political cycles in OECD economies. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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Dynamische Fiskalpolitik: Makroökonomische Wirkungen der Fiskalpolitik in einem Real Business Cycle-Modell. Lang, 2003.

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Gasche, Martin. Dynamische Fiskalpolitik: Makrooekonomische Wirkungen der Fiskalpolitik in einem Real Business Cycle-Modell. Peter Lang International Academic Publishers, 2018.

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Belke, Ansgar. Politische Konjunkturzyklen in Theorie und Empirie: Eine kritische Analyse der Zeitreihendynamik in Partisan-Ansätzen. Mohr, 1996.

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Chari, V. V. Business cycle accounting. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2004.

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Chari, V. V. Business cycle accounting. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Research Dept., 2003.

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Chari, V. V. Business cycle accounting. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Weder, Mark. Business Cycle Models with Indeterminacy. Physica-Verlag HD, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47018-9.

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Book chapters on the topic "Models of political cycle"

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García-Albacete, Gema M. "Political Participation and Age: Building an Exploratory Model of Political Participation Based on Life Cycle, Cohort and Period Effects." In Young People’s Political Participation in Western Europe. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137341310_3.

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van der Ploeg, F. "Political Business Cycle." In The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1422-1.

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Simonovits, András. "Political models." In Modeling Pension Systems. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230597693_18.

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Martin, Bonnie. "14. The TALC Model and Politics." In The Tourism Area Life Cycle, Vol. 1, edited by Richard Butler. Multilingual Matters, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.21832/9781845410278-023.

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Cordell, Andrea, and Ian Thompson. "Procurement Life Cycle." In The Procurement Models Handbook. Routledge, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351239509-1.

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Cordell, Andrea, and Ian Thompson. "Contract Management Cycle." In The Procurement Models Handbook. Routledge, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351239509-2.

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Cordell, Andrea, and Ian Thompson. "Product Life Cycle." In The Procurement Models Handbook. Routledge, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351239509-6.

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Whynes, David K. "The Political Business Cycle." In Current Issues in Macroeconomics. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20286-7_6.

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Hanslmeier, Arnold. "Chaotic Dynamo Models." In The Chaotic Solar Cycle. Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-9821-0_8.

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Sheu, Phillip C. Y. "Software Life Cycle Models." In Software Engineering and Environment. Springer US, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5907-8_1.

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Conference papers on the topic "Models of political cycle"

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Ahmad, Shamall. "Electoral system as a motivation to reforming political system- The Iraqi model." In INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF DEFICIENCIES AND INFLATION ASPECTS IN LEGISLATION. University of Human Development, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21928/uhdicdial.pp290-310.

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The flaws and major flaws in the political systems represent one of the main motives that push the political elite towards making fundamental reforms, especially if those reforms have become necessary matters so that: Postponing them or achieving them affects the survival of the system and the political entity. Thus, repair is an internal cumulative process. It is cumulative based on the accumulated experience of the historical experience of the same political elite that decided to carry out reforms, and it is also an internal process because the decision to reform comes from the political elite that run the political process. There is no doubt that one means of political reform is to push the masses towards participation in political life. Changing the electoral system, through electoral laws issued by the legislative establishment, may be the beginning of political reform (or vice versa), taking into account the uncertainty of the political process, especially in societies that suffer from the decline of democratic values, represented by the processes of election from one cycle to another. Based on the foregoing, this paper seeks to analyze the relationship between the Electoral and political system, in particular, tracking and studying the Iraqi experience from the first parliamentary session until the issuance of the Election Law No. (9) for the year (2020).
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Chebeskov, Alexander N., Vladimir I. Oussanov, Serguei V. Iougai, Mikhail I. Zavadsky, Albert Decressin, and Emile Vanden Bemden. "Political, Economic and Environmental Factors Impacting the Realization of the Plutonium Utilization Strategy in Russia." In ASME 2001 8th International Conference on Radioactive Waste Management and Environmental Remediation. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icem2001-1274.

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Abstract The paper presents some results of system analysis of the plutonium utilization alternatives carried out by Russian specialists with an assistance of their European colleagues in the frames of ISTC#369 and #1443 Projects, financially supported by European Commission states. The multi-attribute utility (MAU) model was chose as the methodology for the analysis. For the time being the work is under continuation, but results of the first stage of the study related to conceptual features of the problem can be summed up and discussed. The study made has shown that effective application of a quantitative model to the problem of plutonium utilization is possible provided that political and technical objectives are strictly defined. A realistic base for the scenarios under consideration is general requirement of a principal importance. The principal result of system consideration is the conclusion that transition from the practice of plutonium accumulation and storing to the strategy of plutonium utilization in nuclear reactors is justified under the real Russian conditions. In an economic sense it is justified by the reason that the expenses of reactor conversion to MOX fuel utilization are comparable with those of long-term storing of plutonium, taking into account modern, and especially future, safety requirements. On the non-proliferation criterion, conversion to MOX fuel utilization is also justified, so as in this case the main source of the proliferation risk — the plutonium store, where plutonium is being stored in the forms being the most attractive for the non-authorized usage — is eliminated. At last, conversion to utilization of stored plutonium results in the decrease of radiation risk for staff and population, as well as in the decrease of impact on the environment due to reduction of some stages of the fuel cycle. Ranking of the plutonium utilization alternatives on a base of account economic, non-proliferation and ecological factors has led to reasonable, explicable results. These results were used in “The concept of the Russian Federation on_disposition of weapons plutonium being released in the course of nuclear disarmament”, which was approved as an official document of Ministry of Atomic Energy of Russian Federation. The main approaches of this strategy were changed significantly when comparing with the previous concept of plutonium utilization. One may expect more detailed recommendations to decision makers in course of further elaboration of scenarios and models at the following stages of the study.
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Gerni, Cevat, Özge Buzdağlı, Dilek Özdemir, and Ömer Selçuk Emsen. "Elections and The Real Exchange Rate Volatility In Turkey (1992-2014)." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01553.

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Sudden fluctuations that occur as results of politicians’ manipulation on the macroeconomic variables during the election period are called as Political Business Cycle. In recent years, exchange rate also has become an important subject of many studies in this framework. Before the elections, to gain the public’s votes, politicians firstly put pressure on the exchange rates to prevent currency depreciation, and then this can lead to manipulative fluctuations. In this respect, during the 1992:01-2014:12 periods in Turkey, the impact of the entire local and general elections on the real exchange rate volatility is examined using E-GARCH method. On the other hand, political variables such as independence of Central Bank, exchange rate regime, the number of representatives of the ruling party in the parliament and coalition are included to the model while the pre and after election period from the 1st to the 6th month as dummy variables. Based on the results of the analysis, it can be said that the elections and the political variables affect the real exchange rate and its volatility in Turkey. However, there is no significant evidence whether the politicians act opportunistic behavior to be reelected. Since the uncertainty during the election period cause outflow of the capital and deferral of the investment decisions of the investors until after the election, it may well be said that the politicians fail to influence the real exchange rate for their self-interests.&#x0D;
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Fernandes, João, Monica Santamaria, José C. Matos, et al. "An infrastructure management system for railway bridges: overview and application to a case study." In IABSE Symposium, Guimarães 2019: Towards a Resilient Built Environment Risk and Asset Management. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/guimaraes.2019.0168.

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&lt;p&gt;A management system is a decision-making tool that uses mathematical models to predict the future condition of the infrastructures as well as to make recommendations to the project managers. Generally, an infrastructure management system shall include a system for processing and analysing data, predicting deterioration, proposing maintenance actions, forecasting costs, obtaining optimal solutions and defining strategies that considers the political and economic constraints. The focus on this paper will be the module regarding the definition of cost-models.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;During its life cycle, bridges are exposed to several issues that can compromise their functionality. In this way, performing maintenance and rehabilitation actions and establishing cost models are very important tasks to keep the bridge functions according to the demands of the society. In the field of bridge engineering, the cost models can be used for different purposes such as the definition of optimum maintenance policies and project investment alternatives. Also, they are very important for the decision-making process once they cover several aspects related to the decisions about the system’s performance and decisions that are influenced by social-economic aspects. Hence, the idea of this paper is to discuss different approaches of how the cost-models are evaluated over a life cycle of a bridge due different scenarios of maintenance and rehabilitation with an application to a case study.&lt;/p&gt;
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"PPPS, THE BUSINESS CYCLE, AND THE POLITICAL CYCLE." In 2006 European Real Estate Society conference in association with the International Real Estate Society: ERES Conference 2006. ERES, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.15396/eres2006_274.

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Brinton, Samuel, and Akira Tokuhiro. "An Initial Study on Modeling the United States Thermal Fuel Cycle Mass Flow Using Vensim." In 16th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone16-48571.

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According to current forecasts, nuclear power plant construction and nuclear-generated electricity production is projected to increase in the next half-century. This is likely due to the fact that nuclear energy is an ‘environmental alternative’ to fossil fuel plants that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). Nuclear power also has a much higher energy density output than other alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, and biomass energies. There is also growing consensus that processing of low- and high-level waste, LLW and HLW respectively, is a political issue rather than a technical challenge. Prudent implementation of a closed fuel cycle not only curbs build-up of GHGs, but can equally mitigate the need to store nuclear used fuel. The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) is promoting gradual integration of fuel reprocessing, and deployment of fast reactors (FRs) into the global fleet for long-term uranium resource usage. The use of mixed oxide (MOX) fuel burning Light Water Reactors (LWR) has also been suggested by fuel cycle researchers. This study concentrated on modeling the construction and decommissioning rates of six major facilities comprising the nuclear fuel cycle, as follows: (1) current LWRs decommissioned at 60-years service life, (2) new LWRs burning MOX fuel, (3) new (Gen’ III+) LWRs to replace units and/or be added to the fleet, (4) new FRs to be added to the fleet, (5) new reprocessing and MOX fuel fabrication facilities and (6) new LWR fuel fabrication facilities. Our initial work [1] focused on modeling the construction and decommissioning rates of reactors to be deployed. This is being followed with a ‘mass flow model’, starting from uranium ore and following it to spent forms. The visual dynamic modeling program Vensim was used to create a system of equations and variables to track the mass flows from enrichment, fabrication, burn-up, and the back-end of the fuel cycle. Sensible construction and deployment rates were benchmarked against recent reports and then plausible scenarios considered parametrically. The timeline starts in 2007 and extends in a preliminary model to 2057; a further mass flow model scenario continues until 2107. The scenarios considered provide estimates of the uranium ore requirements, quantities of LLW and HLW production, and waste storage volume needs. The results of this study suggest the number of reprocessing facilities necessary to stabilize and/or reduce recently reported levels of spent fuel inventory. Preliminary results indicate that the entire national spent fuel inventory produced over the next ∼50 years can be reprocessed by a reprocessing plant construction rate of less than 0.07 plants/year (small capacity) or less than 0.05 plants /year (large capacity). Any larger construction rate could reduce the spent fuel inventory destined for storage. These and additional results will be presented.
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Brinton, Samuel, and Akira Tokuhiro. "An Economic Model of Nuclear Reprocessing Using Vensim." In 17th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone17-75648.

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Even under the call for solutions to climate change and alternative energy sources to meet increasing energy demands, the imminent “nuclear renaissance” is debated by those who want to know the final destination of spent nuclear fuel. One of the alternatives to direct storage of spent fuel in a geological repository includes partial to full fuel reprocessing such that fission products such as actinides can be removed, as well as the recycling of plutonium and uranium into mixed oxide fuel (MOX). With the anticipated construction of ‘new build’ nuclear power plants (NPPs), as well as the continued operation of the existing fleet, we anticipate that the inventory of spent fuel destined for storage in Yucca Mountain (or similar) will continue to grow. Thus the U.S. DOE is promoting a sensible consideration of reprocessing, burning MOX in existing and near-terms LWRs and continuing R&amp;D on sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) for their eventual commercial introduction. However, countries that have chosen to reprocess are facing high costs and lingering political opposition, while others who have chosen not to reprocess equally face opposition to licensing and operating an adequate federal repository. This research continues ongoing research by the authors on existing and planned realization of NPPs and the associated fuel cycle. That is, we have to date developed models of the construction and decommissioning of NPPs in the U.S., developed an associated model that includes construction of reprocessing facilities, and finally, accounts for the mass flow within the partially closed fuel cycle. From early on, we included the gradual introduction of MOX-burning LWRs and SFRs into the existing and anticipated LWR fleet over the next 100 years. All models were created using Vensim, a software tool that facilitates development, analysis and compartmentalization of dynamic processes with feedback models. Our model has been benchmarked against the MIT and U. Chicago reports on the future of nuclear energy. The current work presents cost estimates and uncertainties assigned to the mass flow model to evaluate the cost of NPP-based electricity generation, with and without a fuel reprocessing. Preliminary results demonstrate that the high cost of reprocessing can be offset by the larger expense of having to construct ‘multiple’ Yucca Mountain-type repositories, under current NPP growth forecasts and insistence of the once-through fuel cycle. Details and results on various, sensible scenarios will be presented.
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Mirmohammadi, Seyed Aliakbar, Mohammad Reza Behi, Alexander B. Suma, and Björn E. Palm. "Multi-Criteria Analysis, Evaluation and Modeling of Future Scenario for the Energy Generation Sector — A Case Study." In ASME 2014 Power Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/power2014-32057.

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Renewable energy continues to attract much interest due to the depletion of fossil fuels and unsettled political disputes. This study aims to evaluate the current status of energy generation on the campus of Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e). Furthermore, it looks for ways for the TU/e to improve sustainability by finding and proposing alternative solutions. Therefore, a broad scope of various renewable energy sources (RES) has been investigated. From many aspects, the analysis of RES proves that biomass is the most appropriate source of renewable energy for the TU/e campus. Thus, the capability of harvestable biomass fuel in energy generation throughout a year has been investigated for this project, and it has been concluded that solid biomass waste from the campus can provide 1314 MWh heat load annually. In order to achieve as much energy from biomass as possible, a combined heat and power unit (CHP), in order to produce both heat and electricity for new student houses on the campus, has been modeled. Finally, the project results show that a small-scale CHP cycle is capable of producing 366 MWh electricity, as well as 772 MWh heat, annually.
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Gurkan-Cavusoglu, Evren, Jane E. Schupp, Timothy J. Kinsella, and Kenneth A. Loparo. "Analysis of cell cycle dynamics using probabilistic cell cycle models." In 2011 33rd Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iembs.2011.6089914.

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Yano, Tae, William W. Cohen, and Noah A. Smith. "Predicting response to political blog posts with topic models." In Human Language Technologies: The 2009 Annual Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.3115/1620754.1620824.

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Reports on the topic "Models of political cycle"

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McCallum, Bennett. Real Business Cycle Models. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w2480.

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Linger, Richard C., Howard F. Lipson, John McHugh, Nancy R. Mead, and Carol A. Sledge. Life-Cycle Models for Survivable Systems. Defense Technical Information Center, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada407793.

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Alesina, Alberto, and Jeffrey Sachs. Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1940.

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Moshary, Sarah, Bradley Shapiro, and Jihong Song. How and When to Use the Political Cycle to Identify Advertising Effects. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27349.

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Murphy, Kevin, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny. Building Blocks of Market Clearing Business Cycle Models. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w3004.

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Scacchi, Walt. Models of Software Evolution: Life Cycle and Process. Defense Technical Information Center, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada236120.

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Rebelo, Sergio. Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11401.

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Bachmann, Ruediger, and Jinhui Bai. Government Purchases Over the Business Cycle: the Role of Economic and Political Inequality. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16247.

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Patterson, Christina M., Margaret R. Porteus, and Karn J. Richter. Life Cycle Processes: Standards, Capability and Maturity Models, Process Improvement Models, and Appraisal Methods. Defense Technical Information Center, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada408534.

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Bhandari, Anmol, Jaroslav Borovička, and Paul Ho. Identifying Ambiguity Shocks in Business Cycle Models Using Survey Data. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22225.

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