Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Monetary policy – Developing countries'

In recent times, monetary policy has increasingly adopted the interest rate as an instrument and inflation as the ultimate objective. This is congruous with the propositions of the New consensus macroeconomics (NCM) and synonymous with the somewhat widespread practice of inflation targeting. However, the optimality of a monetary policy approach depends critically on its effectiveness and costs; which would differ between developing and developed countries. This thesis investigates the effectiveness and costs of an NCM-type monetary policy in Nigeria. Essentially, it is a systematic study of the implications of monetary policy in Nigeria, while paying attention to the peculiarities of the Nigerian economy and using a rigorous up-to-date framework. Effectiveness is investigated by considering some underlying assumptions of the NCM. First, the assumption of a complete pass-through from the policy interest rate to the market rates (which is critical for the success of monetary policy) is investigated. Here an array of market, retail deposit and lending rates are examined while an attempt is also made to capture the role of financial market (under)development. Second, the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand is investigated, since it constitutes the intermediate target of policy. Given the high incidence of poverty in Nigeria and our associated assumption that consumption would, in this case, be inelastic to policy changes, the aggregate demand effect is limited to investigating the responsiveness of investment to monetary policy induced changes in the interest rate. Finally, the cost and benefit analysis of monetary policy in Nigeria is investigated by estimating a NCM-type Phillips curve. To understand the dynamics and source of inflation the standard NCM-type Phillips curve is augmented with supply factors. The relative importance of demand vis-à-vis supply factors as well as the cost and benefits of disinflation are thereafter determined. These are analysed using both theoretical and empirical approaches. Results indicated that an NCM-type monetary policy is generally ineffective in anchoring interest rates or aggregate demand and may be conducted at a considerably high cost in terms of output loss and financial instability. These findings and their policy implications are not entirely surprising given the institutional features of the Nigerian economy. They generally suggest that the use of interest rate policies tended to create more problems than it can solve. Hence, to avert the associated problems, there is a need for other instruments which the central bank can control effectively. Moreover, monetary policy focus should be on long-run output expansion and short-run price-stability, rather than the converse. This would have the benefit of moderating poverty and unemployment.

The principal objective of this thesis is to evaluate appropriate measures of inflation which are to be applicable for implementing monetary policy in developing countries. The first essay attempts to assess real effects of high inflation episodes for Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. In order to investigate the real effects of high inflation episodes, the study adopts an indicator for the inflationary real effect, named inflationary real response (IRR), which is the difference between the expected and output-neutral inflation. Both the expected and output-neutral inflation are computed as the decomposition of shocks induced in the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The main finding of this chapter is that there is a positive real effect in economic growth in the period after high inflation. The second essay investigates the responses of real output and inflation to oil price, aggregate supply and demand shocks in the four Asian developing countries; Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Thailand. The structural VAR model is used to identify the different shocks and to explore the relative contributions of these shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. It is found that oil price shocks have negligible effects on economic activities for all the examined countries. However, aggregate supply and demand shocks are key sources of variation in output and inflation. The final essay examines whether the central bank should target a broader measure of the price index that incorporates stock prices alongside the prices of current goods and services. The primary contribution of this chapter is the estimation of a price index that can be efficiently utilised by central banks aiming to minimise output volatility. The results suggest that the central bank should use a price index that gives a sizeable weight to the fundamental component of stock prices to minimise output gap variance.

要旨pdfファイル:学位記番号「経博第77号」
Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(経済学)
甲第7622号
経博第79号
新制||経||138(附属図書館)
UT51-99-G216
京都大学大学院経済学研究科現代経済学専攻
(主査)教授 吉田 和男, 教授 瀬地山 敏, 教授 古川 顕
学位規則第4条第1項該当

The CFA consists several African economies adhering to one of two common currencies, and one of two central banks. The rules of the monetary union provide for the pooling of foreign assets, and the regulation of monetary expansion in each country. The French treasury guarantees the convertibility of CFA Francs into French Francs at a fixed rate. The thesis examines the impact of CFA membership on the macroeconomic performance of member states, assessing the claim that CFA institutions have influenced capital and labour markets, and have modified short run adjustment to external shocks. There are a number of reasons why CFA membership could facilitate higher investment, (i) The rules governing money creation may lead to greater monetary prudence, and so lower inflation and price variability, and less uncertainty for investors, (ii) Guaranteed convertibility means that firms will never be prevented from importing capital goods by a lack of foreign exchange, (iii) Convertibility may encourage a greater degree of integration between French and CFA capital markets, so that domestic investment is not entirely dependant on domestic saving. A model of investment is constructed to incorporate these effects, and tested using time series and cross-sectional data. Support is found for (i) and (ii), but not for (iii). If African labour markets are characterised by nominal wage inertia, the enforced low inflation may lead to excessive real wages, and CFA membership may impair efficient allocation of labour. However, evidence suggests this characterisation is usually inappropriate. The pegged exchange rate may lead to persistent external imbalances: devaluation is not an option in response to a negative trade shock. This will not be a problem as long as an effective substitute for devaluation is found. A CGE model is constructed to examine the viability of various devaluation substitutes, none of which are found to be adequate.

Tout d'abord, cette thèse examine les relations d'une part entre la politique monétaire et la microfinance et d'autre part celles liées à la croissance économique et le secteur de la microfinance. Nos résultats montrent dans le premier cas que les taux des institutions de microfinance (IMF) à vocation non commerciale sont moins sensibles à la politique monétaire contrairement à ceux des IMF à vocation commerciale. Ce résultat peut s'expliquer par la possibilité des IMF à vocation commerciale à avoir un accès plus important au financement bancaire contrairement aux IMF à vocation non commerciale. Quant au deuxième cas, nous trouvons que la microfinance affecte la croissance économique à travers les canaux de transmission que sont la consommation et l'investissement. Ensuite, nous avons analysé l'impact des indicateurs de gouvernance notamment le nombre de personnes au conseil d'administration, le statut juridique et les ratios de prudentielles sur les performances financières et sociales des IMF dans un premier temps et dans un second temps nous examinons l'effet de la structure du capital sur l'activité de microcrédit à court, moyen et long terme. En ce qui concerne la gouvernance, nous trouvons que les IMF ayant le statut de « société anonyme » dégagent des marges bénéficiaires plus importantes que les institutions mutualiste et coopérative d'épargne et de crédit (IMCEC). Quant aux travaux sur la structure du capital, nous remarquons que les prêts aux populations à faibles revenus sont refinancés par les emprunts bancaires dont la conséquence est le renchérissement du taux prêteur. Enfin, nous constatons que les IMF qui se refinancent par les dépôts ont une activité de prêt plus importante que celles qui se refinancent par des emprunts bancaires
Firstly, this thesis examines the relationships between monetary policy and microfinance on the one hand and economic growth and the microfinance sector on the other. Our results show in the first case that the rates of non-commercial microfinance institutions (MFIs) are less sensitive to monetary policy than those of commercial MFIs. This result can be explained by the possibility that commercial MFIs have greater access to bank financing than non-commercial MFIs. As for the second case, we find that microfinance affects economic growth through the transmission channels of consumption and investment. Then, we analyzed the impact of governance indicators such as the number of people on the board of directors, legal status and prudential ratios on the financial and social performance of MFIs first and then we examine the effect of capital structure on microcredit activity in the short, medium and long term. With regard to governance, we find that MFIs with "public limited company" status generate higher profit margins than mutual and cooperative savings and credit institutions (IMCEC). As for the work on the capital structure, we note that loans to low-income populations are refinanced by bank loans, the consequence of which is the increase in the lending rate. Finally, we note that MFIs that refinance themselves through deposits have a higher lending activity than those that refinance themselves through bank loans

The mixed results of International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programmes in less developed countries are a major motivation for this research. Explanations must be advanced as to what may inhibit the success of such programmes. South Africa has often found itself in a precarious position- with a deteriorating balance of payments, a position similar to other countries that have accepted IMF loans. Furthermore, South Africa undertook an IMF loan in 1993. Financial support from the IMF incorporates structural adjustment programmes. These may include measures such as tighter monetary policy, reduction in the budget deficit, exchange rate devaluation and ceilings on domestic credit with increased interest rates (Ferguson, 1988). These policies illustrate the principle of ‘conditionality,’ whereby access to further loans is conditional on certain criteria being met, such as reduced budget deficits and inflation rates. The principle of conditionality has met with a great deal of criticism. Bacha (1987) and Dell (1982) argue that these aggregate demand-reducing conditions more often than not stagnate domestic economies, worsening the balance of payment and result in programme breakdowns. Essentially, they refer to the IMF conditions as ‘unrealistic.’ The IMF denies this, arguing that shortfalls are mainly due to a lack of political commitment to carry out its conditions (Winters, 1994). This issue of conditionality will be examined in detail, using three specific case studies. The aim of this study is to examine the characteristics of Brazil, Mexico and Zambia to see whether or not the IMF programmes were successful. Guidelines will be established for South African policy from these case studies. South Africa is trying to adjust to the competitiveness of the international economy. At the same time, the need for reconstruction and development exerts increasing pressures on the balance of payments. Guidelines are established for a successful economic adjustment for South Africa. The research concludes that South Africa is certainly in line for a successful transformation. The rigidities are not as extensive as has been the case in Brazil and Zambia. Institutionally, South Africa is sound. However there are still challenges in this area, such as export diversification and economic stability to attract foreign investment.

The paper compares several methods a developing country can use to select a basket of currencies against which to peg its exchange rate, if the country's goal is to minimize variations in its real effective exchange rate. Data over the period 1973-1983 for Zaire, Zambia, Chile and Peru are used to compare the lowest variance exchange rate pegs that are obtained by: a) using different formulas to calculate the indexes of exchange rate variability, b) using different types of weights in the formulas (e.g., weighting bilateral exchange rate fluctuations by export, import or total trade), and c) calculating the indexes of exchange rate variation over different time periods within 1973-1983.
M.A.

Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The endogenous money theory states that the money supply responds endogenously to the demand for credit. The money supply is not exogenously determined by the central bank. The endogenous theory is associated with the Post Keynesian school. It has been tested extensively for developed countries, where it was found that the modern credit-driven world is characterised by an endogenous money supply. The contribution of the present study is to extend this analysis to developing countries, specifically twelve countries in the SADC region. To examine the applicability of the endogenous money theory to developing countries, the thesis begins with an overview of the views of the different schools of thought on the role of money. The areas of consensus and disagreement within the Post Keynesian school are discussed. The theoretical basis of the thesis is the ‘structuralist’ Post Keynesian view that money cannot be endogenous if the financial system in a country has not reached the final stages of development. The ‘structuralist’ hypothesis is tested for the SADC countries by examining the demand and supply of credit money in each country. It was found that households do not generally have full access to formal credit markets. Changes in the money supply are not determined by changes in private sector credit in many of the countries. The analysis was then extended to the institutional environment in each country. A financial institutional index was developed to facilitate comparison between the SADC countries. It was shown that South Africa is the only country in the SADC area that has a financial system that can be classified as ‘largely developed’. It is also the only country where changes in the supply of money are predominantly credit-driven. Post Keynesians maintain that the money supply is endogenous and interest rates are exogenous. Interest rate mark-ups and spreads are assumed stable over the business cycle. This notion is challenged by the ‘structuralist’ Post Keynesians. To test the theory of stable interest rate mark-ups and spreads, data for each individual country were examined. Neither interest rate spreads, nor interest rate mark-ups were found to be stable. Interest rate spreads are generally higher in developing countries than in developed countries. No clear pro- or counter-cyclical variation in spreads was found. Finally, an econometric model was developed and the links between financial development and growth were examined. By looking at 49 developed and developing countries, it was found that financial development is strongly linked to economic growth. Financial repression and high interest rate spreads cause growth to be depressed. Financial development and increased competition in the banking sector will lead to higher real economic growth rates. In an environment where the financial system has not reached the stage where money is endogenous, the lack of financial institutional development stifles economic growth.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die teorie van ‘n endogene geldvoorraad aanvaar dat die aanbod van geld endogeen reageerop die vraag na krediet. Die geldvoorraad word nie eksogeen bepaal deurdie sentrale bank nie. Die endogene gedvoorraad teorie word geassosieer met die Post Keynesiaanse skool. Dit is reeds getoets vir ontwikkelde lande, waar die bevinding was dat ‘n endogene geldvoorraad ‘n eienskap is van ‘n moderne kredietgedrewe wereld. Hierdie tesis maak ‘n bydrae deur die analise uit te brei na ontwikkelende lande, spesifiek twaalf lande in die SADC streek. Om die toepasbaarheid van die endogene geldvoorraad vir ontwikkelende lande te toets, begin die tesis met ‘n oorsig van die verskillende denkskole se sienings oor die rol van geld. Die areas waar Post Keynesiane ooreenstem en verskil word bespreek. Die teoretiese basis van die tesis is die ‘strukturalistiese’ Post Keynesiaanse siening dat die geldvoorraad nie endogeen kan wees indien die finansiele sisteem in ‘n land nog nie die finale ontwikkelingstadia bereik het nie. Hierdie hipotese van die ‘strukturaliste’ word getoets vir die SADC lande deur te kyk na die vraag na en aanbod van krediet in elke land. Daar is bevind dat huishoudings oor die algemeen nie volledige toegang het tot formele kredietmarkte nie. Veranderinge in die geldvoorraad word nie in al die lande veroorsaak deur veranderinge in privaat sektor kredietverlening nie. Hierdie analise word dan uitgebrei na die institusionele omgewing in elke land, ‘n Finansiele institusionele indeks is ontwikkel om vergelyking tussen die SADC lande moontlik te maak. Daar is bevind dat Suid Afrika die enigste land is met 'n finansiele sisteem wat geklassifiseer kan word as ‘grotendeels ontwikkeld’. Dit is ook die enigste land waardie geldvoorraad beduidend kredietgedrewe is. Post Keynesiane glo dat die geldvoorraad endogeen is en rentekoerse eksogeen. Rentekoersmarges word gesien as stabiel oor die konjunktuursiklus. Hierdie aanname word bevraagteken deur die ‘strukturalistiese’ Post Keynesiane. Die teorie van stabiele rentekoersmarges word getoets deur te kyk na data vir elke individuele land. Die bevinding is dat rentekoersmarges nie stabiel is nie. Marges is oor die algemeen hoer in ontwikkelende lande as in ontwikkelde lande. Daar is geen duidelike pro- of kontrasikliese variasies in rentekoersmarges gevind nie. Laastens is ‘n ekonometriese model ontwikkel om die skakels tussen finansiele ontwikkeling en groei te ondersoek. Deur te kyk na 49 ontwikkelde en onontwikkelde lande, is daar bevind dat finansiele ontwikkeling en groei ‘n sterk verband toon. Finansiele onderdrukking en hoe rentekoersmarges lei tot laer ekonomiese groei. Finansiele ontwikkeling en groter mededinging in die bank sektor sal lei tot hoer reele ekonomiese groeikoerse. In ‘n omgewing waar die finansiele sisteem nog nie die stadium bereik het waar geld endogeen is nie, sal die gebrek aan finansiele institusionele ontwikkeling ekonomiese groei benadeel.

In this thesis I study observed patterns of structural change in developing countries and how differences in sectoral composition affect economic growth and economic policy. In particular, in chapter one I ask how does international trade affect employment composition in countries with comparative advantage in agriculture. Using a model of exogenous growth, I find that countries with large concentration of agriculture in exports have a large fraction of employment in the agricultural sectoral. The model including trade, in addition to the traditional mechanisms of structural change, can account for 85% of the structural change observed in the data, while the model without trade can only account for 36% of observed changes. Moreover, as economic growth takes place, employment shifts directly from agriculture to services bypassing manufacturing. In the second chapter, I ask what is the weight that central banks should assign to agricultural price inflation in developing countries where the share of agriculture in consumption is large. Using a multisector new Keynesian model with nominal rigidities on wages and on non-agricultural prices, I find that it is optimal for the central bank to assign non-zero weight to agricultural inflation after shocks in non-agriculture. The reason is that there is a link between inflation in agriculture and inflation in wages. Therefore, the central bank can reduce welfare losses due to nominal frictions in the economy by targeting agricultural price inflation. This result holds for countries with the sectoral composition of both developed and developing countries. In addition, I find that developed countries obtain larger welfare gains if they fully target agricultural prices after non-agricultural shocks, compared to developing countries. Finally, in chapter three I ask how does sectoral composition within the agricultural sector affects structural change and labor productivity. I find that structural change within the agricultural sector and capital accumulation can explain the following facts associated with economic development: a decrease in the share of workers in the agricultural sector, an increase in the average farm size in the economy, an increase of capital intensity in agriculture relative to non-agriculture and the increase of labor productivity in agriculture relative to non-agriculture. Using crop level data, I classify crops by capital intensity and find evidence of much larger structural change within the agricultural sector than between agriculture in the United States, during the period 1961-2014. To account for these facts I consider a model including two agricultural sectors, a land intensive agricultural sector and a capital intensive agricultural sector. The output of these two sectors can be substitutes in preferences. In fact, when these goods are complementaries in preferences, structural change within the agricultural sector is lower and therefore agricultural labor productivity is affected, as farmers are less capital intensive and the average farm size is smaller. Finally, I consider a financial misallocation, such that the cost of credit is larger in agriculture than in non-agriculture, and find that labor productivity in agriculture relative to non-agriculture is lower in countries subject to the financial inefficiency.
El objetivo de esta tesis es estudiar patrones de cambio estructural observados en países en desarrollo y como diferencias en la composición sectorial afectan tanto al crecimiento económico como a la política económica. En particular, en el primer capítulo investigo cómo afecta el comercio internacional la composición del empleo en países con ventaja comparativa en la producción de bienes agrícolas. Usando un modelo de crecimiento exógeno, encuentro que el empleo en el sector agrícola es mayor en países con gran concentración de agricultura en las exportaciones. El modelo que incluye comercio internacional explica un 85% del cambio estructural observado en los datos, mientras que el modelo sin comercio solo explica 36% de los cambios observados. Además, a medida que se produce el crecimiento económico, el empleo pasa directamente de la agricultura a los servicios, pasando por alto el sector de las manufacturas. En el segundo capítulo, pregunto cuál es el peso que los bancos centrales deberían asignar a la inflación de precios agrícolas en países en desarrollo donde la participación de la agricultura en el consumo es grande. Utilizando un modelo neo keynesiano multisectorial con rigideces nominales en los salarios y en los precios no agrícolas, encuentro que es óptimo para el banco central asignar un peso diferente de cero a la inflación agrícola después de shocks no agrícolas. La razón es que existe un vínculo entre la inflación en la agricultura y la inflación en los salarios. Por lo tanto, el banco central puede reducir las pérdidas de bienestar debido a las fricciones nominales en la economía al incluir a la inflación de los precios agrícolas en su objetivo. Este resultado se aplica tanto a países con la composición sectorial de países desarrollados como a países en desarrollo. Finalmente, en el tercer capítulo estudio cómo la composición sectorial dentro del sector agrícola afecta al cambio estructural y a la productividad laboral. Los resultados indican que el cambio estructural dentro del sector agrícola y la acumulación de capital pueden explicar los siguientes hechos asociados con el desarrollo económico: una disminución en la participación de los trabajadores en el sector agrícola, un aumento en el tamaño promedio de los establecimientos agrícolas, un aumento en la intensidad de capital en la agricultura en relación con la no agricultura y el aumento de la productividad laboral en la agricultura en relación con la no agricultura. Usando datos de nivel de cultivo, clasifico los cultivos por intensidad de capital y encuentro evidencia de un cambio estructural mucho más grande dentro del sector agrícola que entre sectores en los Estados Unidos, durante el período 1961-2014. Para explicar estos hechos, considero un modelo que incluye dos sectores agrícolas, un sector agrícola intensivo en tierra y un sector agrícola intensivo en capital. Cuando estos bienes son complementarios en las preferencias, el cambio estructural dentro del sector agrícola es menor y, por lo tanto, la productividad del trabajo agrícola se ve afectada, ya que los agricultores son menos intensivos en capital y el tamaño promedio de los establecimientos agrícolas es menor. Finalmente, considero una ineficiencia financiera, donde el costo del crédito es mayor en la agricultura que en la no agricultura. Los resultados indican que la productividad laboral en la agricultura en comparación con la no agrícola es menor en los países sujetos a la ineficiencia financiera.

The distinctive features of inflation targeting include the publishing of the formal (official) target band or point target for the rate of inflation at one or more time horizons and the explicit confirmation that low and steady inflation is the long-run objective of monetary policy. There are four main preconditions of inflation targeting: 1) an independent central bank that is free from fiscal and political pressures; 2) a central bank that has both the ability to forecast inflation and the capability to model inflation data; 3) the presence of fully deregulated prices and an economy that is affected by changes of commodity prices, as well as exchange rates; and 4) the presence of sound banking system and well developed capital markets. In most developing countries, the use of seigniorage revenues as a source of financing government debts, the lack of commitment by monetary authorities to low inflation as a primary goal, the absence of the central bank’s functional independence, and of powerful models to make domestic inflation forecasts, prevent the satisfaction of these preconditions. This dissertation investigates the extent to which Malawi meets the preconditions for inflation targeting by comparing the situation in that country to other developing countries, which have already adopted the framework. Malawi is committed to the central bank’s functional independence as well as the pursuit of prudent fiscal policy measures for the attainment of low inflation. Despite the failure to meet all the preconditions, this study recommends that Malawi should adopt an inflation targeting framework due to the strength of commitment of the monetary authorities in satisfying these preconditions.

The first paper introduces a new dataset on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 Low-Income Countries over the period 1971-2011. We characterize the recent trends regarding LICs domestic public debt and explore the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. We also observe that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term instruments over time and that the maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the Central Bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.

Taking the structuralist approach as a starting point, this dissertation constructs a computable general equilibrium model for India using the social accounting matrix framework and along the lines of Lance Taylor's modelling of developing countries. The model is used to test the structuralist theories on the effects of a devaluation. The dissertation extends the testing of these models in two respects. First, by organizing the data in the form of traded and non-traded goods it studies the macroeconomic responses at a greater level of disaggregation than has been attempted earlier. Second, by constructing social accounting matrices for three time periods and using these to simulate the model, it examines the robustness of the predictions of the structuralist theories. The results indicate that the outcome of a devaluation depends on the structure of the economy and on the extent of the elasticity of exports, thus, generally supporting the structuralist theories.

Gli studi sulla politica monetaria e fiscale suggeriscono che l'economia sommersa o informale è un potente cuscinetto in grado di assorbire i canali di trasmissione delle politiche macroeconomiche. In questo lavoro, sviluppiamo un modello DSGE con economia sommersa al fine di analizzarne l’impatto sui canali di trasmissione delle politiche monetarie e fiscali nei paesi emergenti e in via di sviluppo. La tesi è organizzata in tre capitoli. Il primo capitolo cerca di esaminare gli effetti di trasmissione e l'efficacia della politica monetaria e di altri shock strutturali attraverso l’interazione con l’economia sommersa. Il nostro modello determina se la presenza di un'economia sommersa influisce sulle risposte dell'economia ufficiale e chiarisce anche i cambiamenti nel meccanismo di trasmissione all'interno di entrambi i settori. Il secondo capitolo descrive un nuovo modello DSGE keynesiano con economia sommersa e analizza il ruolo delle politiche fiscali sul ciclo economico aggregato. In questo capitolo, abbiamo cercato di chiarire se la presenza di un'economia sommersa riduca o incrementi l'effetto delle trasmissioni di politica fiscale. Abbiamo anche cercato di capire se le politiche fiscali possono essere utilizzate per stabilizzare l'economia in risposta agli shock. Nel terzo capitolo, studiamo l'interazione tra i consumatori e la presenza di un'economia sommersa focalizzandoci sugli shock della politica fiscale. L‘obiettivo è sapere se l'introduzione di un'economia sommersa indebolisca l'effetto amplificativo dei consumatori sul moltiplicatore fiscale.
Theoretical literature on monetary and fiscal policy have suggested that shadow economy or the informal sector is a powerful buffer which absorbs large proportions of the transmission channels of macroeconomic policies. We develop a theoretical DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate their impact on the transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in developing and emerging countries. The thesis is organised in three chapters as follows. Chapter one seeks to examine the transmission effects and efficacy of monetary policy and other structural shocks with the interaction of shadow economy. Our model determines whether the presence of shadow economy affects the responses of the official economy and also clarifies the changes in the transmission mechanism within both sectors. The second chapter describes a new Keynesian DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate business cycle. In this chapter, we sought to elucidate whether the presence of shadow economy dampens or amplifies the effect of fiscal policy transmissions. We further tried to understand whether fiscal policies can be used to stabilise the economy in response to shocks. In chapter three, we study the interplay of rule-of-thumb consumers and the presence of shadow economy focusing on fiscal policy disturbances. Our basic motivation is to know whether the incorporation of shadow economy weakens the amplifying effect of rule-of-thumb consumers on fiscal multipliers.

Gli studi sulla politica monetaria e fiscale suggeriscono che l'economia sommersa o informale è un potente cuscinetto in grado di assorbire i canali di trasmissione delle politiche macroeconomiche. In questo lavoro, sviluppiamo un modello DSGE con economia sommersa al fine di analizzarne l’impatto sui canali di trasmissione delle politiche monetarie e fiscali nei paesi emergenti e in via di sviluppo. La tesi è organizzata in tre capitoli. Il primo capitolo cerca di esaminare gli effetti di trasmissione e l'efficacia della politica monetaria e di altri shock strutturali attraverso l’interazione con l’economia sommersa. Il nostro modello determina se la presenza di un'economia sommersa influisce sulle risposte dell'economia ufficiale e chiarisce anche i cambiamenti nel meccanismo di trasmissione all'interno di entrambi i settori. Il secondo capitolo descrive un nuovo modello DSGE keynesiano con economia sommersa e analizza il ruolo delle politiche fiscali sul ciclo economico aggregato. In questo capitolo, abbiamo cercato di chiarire se la presenza di un'economia sommersa riduca o incrementi l'effetto delle trasmissioni di politica fiscale. Abbiamo anche cercato di capire se le politiche fiscali possono essere utilizzate per stabilizzare l'economia in risposta agli shock. Nel terzo capitolo, studiamo l'interazione tra i consumatori e la presenza di un'economia sommersa focalizzandoci sugli shock della politica fiscale. L‘obiettivo è sapere se l'introduzione di un'economia sommersa indebolisca l'effetto amplificativo dei consumatori sul moltiplicatore fiscale.
Theoretical literature on monetary and fiscal policy have suggested that shadow economy or the informal sector is a powerful buffer which absorbs large proportions of the transmission channels of macroeconomic policies. We develop a theoretical DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate their impact on the transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in developing and emerging countries. The thesis is organised in three chapters as follows. Chapter one seeks to examine the transmission effects and efficacy of monetary policy and other structural shocks with the interaction of shadow economy. Our model determines whether the presence of shadow economy affects the responses of the official economy and also clarifies the changes in the transmission mechanism within both sectors. The second chapter describes a new Keynesian DSGE model with shadow economy and investigate the role of fiscal policies over the aggregate business cycle. In this chapter, we sought to elucidate whether the presence of shadow economy dampens or amplifies the effect of fiscal policy transmissions. We further tried to understand whether fiscal policies can be used to stabilise the economy in response to shocks. In chapter three, we study the interplay of rule-of-thumb consumers and the presence of shadow economy focusing on fiscal policy disturbances. Our basic motivation is to know whether the incorporation of shadow economy weakens the amplifying effect of rule-of-thumb consumers on fiscal multipliers.

The Central African Monetary and Economic Community, known by its French acronym CEMAC (Communauté
Economique et Moné
taire de l&rsquo
Afrique Centrale), is one of the oldest regional economic blocs in the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) group of states. Its membership comprises of Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. It has a population of over 32 million inhabitants in a three million (3 million) square kilometre expanse of land. The changes in the world economy, and especially between the ACP countries, on the one hand, and the European Economic Community-EEC (hereinafter referred to as European Union (EU)), on the other hand, did not leave the CEMAC region unaffected. CEMAC region, like any other regional economic blocs in Africa was faced with the need to readjust in the face of a New International Economic Order (NIEO). The region which had benefited from preferential access to the EU market including financial assistance through the European Development Fund (EDF) had to comply with the rules laid down in the World Trade Organisation (WTO). This eventually led to a shift in the EU trade policy, in order to ensure that its trade preferences to developing countries were compatible to the rules and obligations of the WTO.

Chocs externes et politique monétaire dans les pays émergents
We investigate the conditional correlation between exchange rate and inflation by using a multivariate BEKK GARCH model. This framework is tested on 20 emerging countries independently of each other and it allows one to consider the macroeconomic variables as having a nonlinear relationship over time. We show that the less credible a country is in applying an IT framework because of its monetary objectives or its interventions in the foreign exchange rate markets, the higher the interactions between both variables are. We also show that the adoption of an inflation target allows the decoupling of variables when the inflation volatility increases, and that the estimated central bank’s reaction function explains the diminution in conditional correlation when the exchange rate or both variables volatility augments. By analyzing the evolution of exchange rate pass-through we investigate the degree of vulnerability of macroeconomic variables in BRICS since the mid-1990s when they experience an external shock. Wefocus our study on the two main theories that explain the reduction of macroeconomic variables volatility: the ”good policy” theory with the adoption by central banks of an inflation targeting framework coupled with a flexible exchange rate regime and the ”good luck” theory with the reduction of external shock persistence. The distinction between the theories is made by testing several time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models with different priors on VAR parameters for the structural changes and on the variance-covariance matrix for the stochastic volatility. Among other results, we conclude that the ”good luck” theory seems to be the dominant factor that explain the reduction in the vulnerabilities of BRICS to an external shock and that the 2008 financial crisis does not lead to a significant increase in the ERPT compared to previous crisis. The recent financial crisis has heightened the interest in the impact of financial sector developments on the macroeconomic condition of countries. By employing a rolling-window Vector Auto-Regressive method based on monthly data for a time span between January 2001 and March 2013, this article sets up a comprehensive financial conditions index for a set of major emerging countries. The index sheds light on the various triggers of financial crises during this period and captures both domestic developments as well as global spillover effects. Index dynamics exhibit an overall abrupt slowdown due to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, precipitated primarily through a global liquidity squeeze and overall financial sector strain. In some countries, rising volatility of financial conditions thereafter has substantially been sparked by nominal effective exchange rate movements. Tested on its forecasting applicability, the inclusion of macroeconomic and financial variables enables the index to also perform well as a leading indicator for business cycles

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
We build a two-country DSGE model for a currency union, with habit formation, product and labour differentiation and nominal rigidities. Monetary policy is defined by a rule that responds to the area's macro-variables averages weighted by each country's size. We intend to study the impact of different sources of heterogeneity between the countries (home bias in consumer preferences, wage and price mark-ups and wage and price setting rigidity) on both countries and the union. The model is calibrated and the response to shocks is simulated. The main innovation is the incorporation of several sources of heterogeneity and the assessment of its impact on welfare. The main results of the model simulation are the following: (i) only heterogeneity regarding the home bias can lead to differentials in consumer price inflation; (ii) heterogeneity regarding wage or price mark-ups does not lead to significantly different responses to shocks of the countries; (iii) heterogeneity on nominal rigidities results in differences among the countries' response, favouring the more flexible country and resulting in smoother and longer impacts when shocks occur in the more rigid country. We also examine the volatility of the variables and perform a formal utility-based welfare analysis. We find out that nominal rigidities are the most important source of heterogeneity. In a currency union where the central bank responds to the area wide and does not take into account national differences, it is preferable to increase flexibility in both countries and in both wages and prices, as there are significant welfare losses when countries attempt to make only wages or prices more flexible, or when only a single country is flexible. A comparison of different policy rules allows us to conclude that simpler rules (without interest rate smoothing) provide the best result in terms of welfare.
É desenvolvido um modelo DSGE de dois países que formam uma união monetária, com hábitos no consumo, diferenciação de bens e de trabalho e rigidez nominal. A política monetária segue uma regra que responde à média das variáveis macro do agregado, ponderada pela dimensão do país. Pretende-se estudar o impacto de diferentes fontes de heterogeneidade entre os países (preferências no consumo enviesadas a favor de bens nacionais, mark-ups dos salários e preços e rigidez nos salários e preços) em ambos os países e na união. O modelo é calibrado e são simuladas as respostas a choques. A principal inovação consiste na incorporação de várias fontes de heterogeneidade e na avaliação do impacte em termos de bem-estar. As simulações do modelo levam aos principais resultados: (i) apenas a heterogeneidade no enviesamento das preferências do consumo provoca diferenciais na inflação no consumidor; (ii) heterogeneidade nos mark-ups de preços e salários não resulta em respostas significativamente diferentes entre os países; (iii) heterogeneidade no grau de rigidez nominal implica diferentes respostas dos países, favorecendo o país mais flexível e levando a respostas mais suaves e prolongadas quando os choques ocorrem no país mais rígido. Também se analisa a volatilidade das variáveis e o bem-estar de acordo com uma função formal derivada a partir da função utilidade. Conclui-se que a rigidez nominal é a fonte de heterogeneidade mais relevante. Numa união monetária onde o banco central responde à união e não considera as especificidades de cada país, é preferível aumentar a flexibilidade em ambos os países e nos preços e salários simultaneamente, dado que flexibilizar só salários ou preços, ou se só um país for flexível, leva a elevadas perdas de bem-estar. Conclui-se ainda que regras de política monetária simples (sem gradualismo da taxa de juro) promovem o melhor resultado de bem-estar.

The main aim of this dissertation is to broaden the understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism as it operates in Sub-Saharan Africa. The ultimate goal is to aid in the appropriate design and implementation of monetary policy for the attainment of developmental goals. The dissertation empirically explores four issues on the pricing, behavioural and output implications of monetary policy. The four questions that the dissertation attempts to answer in Chapters Two to Five respectively are: 1) Does the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission depend on the financial development of an economy? 2) Can monetary policy be used as a tool in easing pressure on domestic currencies in the foreign exchange market? 3) Do banks engage in excessively risky behaviour when monetary policy is expansionary? 4) Does monetary policy influence aggregate variables like private capital formation, growth and their interrelationships? Chapter Two tests the completeness of the pass-through of the central bank policy rate to bank lending rates on one hand, and the interest rate pass-through as a function of the level of financial development on the other hand. The results show that the pass-through of central bank policy rate to bank lending rates is asymmetric for three Anglophone West African countries, namely: Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, which are seeking to ascend onto a single monetary framework. However, there is no evidence that financial development affects the pass-through of monetary policy. These findings still prove relevant, especially with regard to the quest for effective monetary policy implementation and the ascension onto a single monetary framework by these 3 countries. The motivation for this study stemmed from policy discussions and academic debates on the premise that financial development is a key element in the pursuit of effective monetary policy implementation, focusing on the three Anglophone West African countries between 1975 and 2011. The study employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) by Pesaran et al., (2001). The findings show significant differences in the interest rate pass-through of the 3 countries studied. Ghana and Gambia were characterised by undershooting in the response of lending rates to monetary policy changes whilst Nigeria was characterised by overshooting in bank lending rates. Financial development proved significant in some, but not in all the cases, while economic growth proved mostly insignificant in the transmission of the policy rate to bank lending rates In Chapter Three, we show that contractionary monetary policy of high interest rates is able to correct disequilibrium in the foreign currency market in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The chapter also provides empirical evidence about the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals on the domestic foreign exchange market. The study assesses the impact of monetary policy on foreign exchange market pressure (EMP) in developing country contexts focusing on some selected countries in SSA. EMP is the sum of exchange rate depreciation and change in foreign reserves that is required to restore equilibrium to the domestic foreign exchange market. The study was motivated by the fact that most of the SSA countries are developing economies that have negative net export positions and stand to lose significantly from consistently deteriorating foreign exchange positions. This study thus sought to measure the ability of monetary policy to significantly address currency pressures that arise from trading on the global market. The hypothesis that a tighter monetary policy stance can lend strength to a currency was tested in this study using Generalised Methods of Moments (GMM) estimation in a dynamic panel setting. Data on 20 SSA economies for which data were available for the period 1991 to 2010 are used. The study found a negative and significant relationship between monetary policy and EMP, implying that contractionary monetary policy can ease EMP.

Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2009.
Thesis research directed by: Dept. of Economics. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.

This thesis addresses interrelated issues that influence the implementation of monetary policy in low income countries (LICs). These include the role of inflation persistence, financial frictions and the potential impact of regime-changes or large shocks. The analysis is applied to data for the Ugandan economy. Chapter 3 extends the quantile regression approach to investigate inflation persistence in LICs. The results suggest mean-reversion for the whole sample, however, there is evidence of asymmetric mean-reversion within specific quantiles. In addition, it is noted that the level of persistence increased after 2006 and during the inflation-targeting period. The study also suggests that a measure of core inflation that is derived from wavelet techniques appears to provide a useful measure of this variable. Chapter 4 considers the role of financial frictions in Uganda. It makes use of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates several small open-economy features. The model parameters are estimated with the aid of Bayesian techniques using quarterly macroeconomic data. The results suggest that the central bank currently responds to changes in the interest rate spread and that it may be possible to derive a more favourable sacrifice ratio by making use of a slightly more aggressive response to macroeconomic developments. Chapter 5 employs a Markov-switching DSGE model to consider the possibility of regime-switching behaviour. Two variants of regime-switching models are considered: One that incorporates regime-switching features in the monetary policy rule (only) and another that incorporates regime-switching features in both the monetary policy rule and in the volatility of the shock processes. Most of the parameters are again estimated with the aid of Bayesian techniques. The results suggest that the model parameters do not remain constant over the two regimes and the transition probabilities appear to capture important economic events. In addition, the out-of-sample evaluation suggests that the regime-switching models may provide a more accurate description of the data generating processes.

La réalisation et le maintien de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire, évaluée par l'écart entre les résultats et les annonces officielles de politique (Gilles [1992]), est devenue une tâche cruciale pour l'Autorité monétaire, lorsque, à partir des années 1980, il a été abordée, dans la littérature économique, la question du central banking (Gilles & Bastidon [2014], Ferguson et Schularick [2008]). Bien que les avantages de la crédibilité soient évidents, ses déterminants le sont moins. En effet, les dernières décennies sont marquées par de profondes mutations dans la gouvernance des Banques Centrales. En particulier, la délégation de la politique monétaire à une Banque Centrale indépendante vis-à-vis des pouvoirs publics est devenue un des principaux déterminants de la crédibilité dans les économies avancées (Goodfriend [2012]; Bordo & Orphanides [2013]; Persson & Tabellini, [1993]). Cependant, pour les Pays en développement, en revanche, le débat sur la nécessité et la faisabilité des mécanismes d'engagement n’est pas tranché, eu égards des caractéristiques spécifiques (Kugman & al [1992], Assoumou-Ella & Bastidon [2015]). En utilisant un modèle simple et une fonction de perte de la banque centrale similaire à celles de Ball [1999] ou Cavoli [2008], nous comparons deux régimes de change différents afin de déterminer lequel des cas est le plus susceptible d'inciter les gouvernements à intensifier la lutte contre la corruption, tout en maintenant l’objectif de stabilité des prix. Un régime d’ancrage crédible conduit à une taxation élevée et un faible niveau de corruption et d’inflation, mais également à un niveau de croissance faible. Un régime monétaire indépendant sans ancrage, en revanche, conduit généralement à un niveau de corruption plus élevée. Cependant, lorsque l’indépendance de la banque centrale est assez forte, le régime monétaire indépendant sans ancrage peut également conduire à moins de corruption, plus de production et de dépenses publiques, bien qu’avec une inflation plus élevée qu’un régime monétaire avec ancrage. Ces résultats semblent indiquer que dans le cas des Pays en développement, l’indépendance de la banque centrale associée à l’ancrage du taux de change ne serait ni une condition nécessaire, ni une condition suffisante à la stabilité des prix
Achieving and maintaining the credibility of monetary policy, measured by the gap between outcomes and official announcements of policy (Gilles [1992]), has become a crucial task for the Monetary Authority when, from the 1980s, was tackled in the economic literature, the issue of central banking (Bastidon & Gilles [2014]). Indeed, the delegation of monetary policy to an independent central bank vis-à-vis the public authority has become a main determinant of credibility in advanced economies (Cukierman [1992], Bordo & Orphanides [2013]). However, its relevance for developing countries due to their specific characteristics (Kugman & al [1992], Assoumou-Ella & Bastidon [2015]) is far from being settled. Using a simple model and a loss of function of the central bank similar to those of Ball [1999] or Cavoli [2008], we compare two different exchange rate regimes to determine which cases are most likely to encourage governments to intensify the fight against corruption, while maintaining the objective of price stability. A credible anchor regime leads to high taxation and low levels of corruption and inflation, but at a low level of growth. An independent monetary regime unanchored, however, usually leads to a higher level of corruption. However, when the independence of the central bank is strong enough, the independent monetary regime unanchored can also lead to less corruption, more production and spending, although with higher inflation a monetary regime with anchor. These results suggest that in the case of developing countries, the independence of the central bank associated with pegged exchange rates would be neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for price stability

This study emphasizes the impact of family planning program components on contraceptive prevalence in less industrialized countries. Building on Lapham and Mauldin's "Program Effort and Fertility Decline" framework and policy evaluation's theory, the author developed two models to examine the impact of family planning programs on contraceptive prevalence and fertility under the constraints of socioeconomic development and demand for family planning. The study employed path analysis and multiple regression on data from the 1982 program effort study in 94 less developed countries (LDCs) by Lapham and Mauldin and 98 LDCs of the 1989 program effort study by Mauldin and Ross. The results of data analyses for all data sets are consistent for the most part. Major findings are as follows: (1) A combination of program effort and socioeconomic development best explains the variation of contraceptive prevalence. (2) Among socioeconomic variables, female literacy exerts the strongest direct and indirect influences to increase contraceptive prevalence and indirect influence to decrease total fertility rate. (3) Christianity performs a significant role in reducing contraceptive prevalence. (4) Among program effort components, availability and accessibility for fertility-control supplies and services have the most influence on contraceptive prevalence. (5) When controlling for demand for family planning, female literacy and Christianity have expected and significant relationships with contraceptive prevalence. Availability and accessibility to fertility-control supplies and services exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on contraceptive prevalence. Demand for family planning has a positive and statistically significant effect on program variables, availability, and contraceptive prevalence. (6) There is a strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. Demand for family planning, program effort, and socioeconomic development influence fertility through contraceptive prevalence. The findings of this study suggest that governments in LDCs should give priorities to increasing female education and availability of contraception to effectively reduce fertility.

This thesis goes through basic principles of industrial policy in developing countries and analyses examples of recent industrial policies in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in the last two decades. The analysis shows the coexistence of unsuccessful and fruitful stories of industrial policy implementation. In the text, I focus especially on the last two decades. I recognize that industrial policy can have a positive impact on economy in some cases, but on the other hand, government failures are frequent and they can result in deep distortions of economic systems and waste of resources. Since 90s', pro-active approach positively contributed to the growth primarily in China and India -- although the progress of these two countries differs substantially. These two countries were (and still are) relatively poorer than Russia and Brazil. Typically, industrial policy in BRIC countries broadly overrides problems of corporate governance, corrupt practices and bureaucratic burdens.

Els efectes i el paper de la Política Fiscal en els països en vies de desenvolupament i els microestats contínua sent una branca relativament poc explorada en la literatura especialitzada. Aquesta tesi és un intent de contribuir en tres àrees importants de la literatura sobre Política Fiscal: els efectes a curt termini de la Política Fiscal i el comportament dins del cicle econòmic de la Política Fiscal en els països en vies de desenvolupament i, finalment, la relació entre la Política Fiscal i la Balança per Compte Corrent en els microestats. La primera part de la tesi tracta d'avaluar els efectes dels xocs de despesa pública sobre l'economia dels països en vies de desenvolupament. Aquesta tesi utilitza una nova metodologia basada en el Model SVAR (Structural Vector Autoregression) on la identificació es realitzada a través de restriccions en el signe. L'esquema d'identificació assumeix que els xocs de despesa pública són els únics que augmenten la despesa pública, la producció, el dèficit i els ingressos fiscals dins el període d'impacte. La tècnica mencionada anteriorment es aplicada utilitzant dades de 9 països diferents. Els resultats mostren que un augment de la despesa pública conduirà a un creixement de la producció i del consum a curt termini, una immediata deterioració de les exportacions netes i a una apreciació, que pot ser no significativa, de la taxa de canvi. A més a més, els multiplicadors fiscals indiquen ser més grans que u per a tots els països menys un, durant el període d'impacte. Aquest resultats indica que un estímul fiscal pot tenir efectes d'expansió sobre la producció i el consum. De totes maneres, aquests efectes semblen ser de curt termini. En la segona part de la tesi es considera el tema de la Política Fiscal pro-cíclica en els països en vies de desenvolupament. En la literatura existeixen dues possibles explicacions per aquest fenomen. Una d'elles senyala que la Política Fiscal pro-cíclica és conseqüència de la falta d'integració fiscal amb la resta del món que pateixen els països en vies de desenvolupament mentre l'altre responsabilitza la capacitat institucional d'aquests països. En aquesta tesi s'analitza, tenint en compte els diferents estats del cicle econòmic, la importància de l'obertura financera i la qualitat de les institucions per determinar l'habilitat dels països de dur a terme Política Fiscal contra-cíclica. Aquest anàlisi es duu a terme mitjançant un model de regressió multiplicativa de planell amb termes interactius i dades de 109 països. L'anàlisi mostra que durant períodes de bonança la qualitat de les institucions juga un paper determinant en el cicle de la Política Fiscal, mentre que durant períodes de recessió son tant la integració fiscal com la qualitat de les institucions els factors claus en determinar la capacitat dels països d'emprar polítiques contra-cícliques. La tercera i última part de la tesi, escrita conjuntament amb Charles Amo-Yartey i Therese Turner Jones, examina la relació empírica entre Política Fiscal i la Balança per Compte Corrent en microestats (aquells amb una població inferior a 2 milions d'habitants entre 1970 i 2009). Donat el fet que els microestats estan caracteritzats per condicions especials com ara la reduïda dimensió del mercat domèstic i de recursos de base, gran grau d'obertura i un sector públic normalment gran, els resultats de la Política Fiscal poden ser diferents dels d'altres tipus d'economies. En aquesta parts, s'utilitza un Model PVAR (Panel Vector Autoregression) per tal d'estimar l'efecte de la Política Fiscal en la Balança per Compte Corrent dels microestats. Resumint, els resultats indiquen que el dèbil efecte dels preus fa l'ajust fiscal força més difícil en els microestats.
Fiscal policy in the context of developing countries remains a relatively under explored area in the literature. This thesis is an attempt to address three important areas in the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries, namely, the short-run effects of fiscal policy, the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy, and the link between fiscal policy and the current account. The first part of the thesis assesses the effects of government spending shocks on the economy of developing countries. I use a recent Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique where identification is achieved via sign restrictions. The identification scheme applies the restrictions that government spending shocks are the only shocks that raise government spending, output, deficit and tax revenue in the impact period. I gather data on 9 countries and employ the above outlined technique. The results show that an increase in government spending would lead to a short-lived expansion of output and consumption, an immediate deterioration of net exports, and an appreciation or no effect on exchange rates. Moreover, the calculated output multipliers give values that are greater than one for all but one country in the impact period. The results suggest a fiscal stimulus could have expansionary effects on output and consumption, however these effects would be short-lived. In the second part of the thesis, I consider the issue of procyclicality of fiscal policy in developing countries. In the literature, there exist two competing plausible explanations. One espouses the view that procyclical fiscal policy is a result of lack of financial integration with the world economy while the other view attributes it to weak institutions within the country. I analyze, by taking into consideration the different states of the economy, the role of financial openness and quality of institutions on the ability of countries to conduct counter-cyclical fiscal policy. I develop a multiplicative panel regression model with interactive terms and use data from 109 countries. The analysis shows during good times the quality of institutions has a dominant role to play in the cyclicality of fiscal policy, and during bad times both financial integration and institutions are important in the ability of countries to run counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The third and last part of the thesis, coauthored with Charles Amo-Yartey and Therese Turner Jones, examines the empirical link between fiscal policy and the current account focusing on microstates. Microstates are defined as countries with a population of less than 2 million between 1970 and 2009. Due to microstates being characterized by special features such as small size of domestic markets, small domestic resource base, high degree of openness and large size of the public sector, among others, findings from other countries may not be applicable to such states. In this part, panel regression and Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) are employed to estimate the impact of fiscal policy on the current account in microstates. Overall, the results suggest that the weak relative price effect makes fiscal adjustment much more difficult in microstates.

Cette thèse se pose la question de savoir comment la politique budgétaire pourrait être utilisée à des fins de financement du développement. Elle identifie et explore les canaux par lesquels les pays en développement peuvent efficacement mobiliser les ressources (internes et externes) pour le financement du développement. Pour cela, nous conduisons des recherches axées sur les politiques économiques (en utilisant des outils statistiques et économétriques appropriés) et nous formulons des recommandations de politiques économiques aux pays en développement. La première partie de cette thèse s’intéresse à la question de la mobilisation des ressources externes dans les pays en développement (Chapitre 1 et Chapitre 2). Dans le Chapitre 1, nous analysons les effets des dépenses publiques sur les spreads de taux dans les pays émergents. Nous montrons que les pays en développement pourraient avoir un meilleur accès aux marchés financiers internationaux en augmentant leurs investissements publics et en réduisant leurs dépenses courantes. Plus précisément, les dépenses en capital humain (éducation et santé) et autres infrastructures publiques réduisent considérablement les spreads de taux. Ils devraient également améliorer la qualité de la gouvernance puisque les marchés financiers récompensent les pays bien gouvernés à travers de meilleures conditions d'emprunt. Nous examinons, dans le Chapitre 2, la force des règles de politiques budgétaires en termes d’amélioration de l’accès des marchés financiers internationaux par les pays en développement. Nous trouvons que l’adoption de règles budgétaires réduit les taux d’intérêts sur la détention des obligations d’Etat souverains et par conséquent améliore l’accès aux marchés financiers. Nous expliquons ce résultat par le canal de la crédibilité de la politique budgétaire : les gouvernements crédibles sont récompensés sur les marchés financiers internationaux par de faibles taux d’intérêt et des notations élevées des dettes souveraines. Nos résultats prouvent que l’adoption et la bonne mise en œuvre des règles de politiques budgétaires constitue un moyen substantiel pour les décideurs publics d’améliorer l’accès des pays en développement aux marchés financiers internationaux. La deuxième partie de cette thèse se focalise sur ce que les pays en développement pourraient faire pour améliorer la mobilisation des ressources internes (Chapitre 3 et Chapitre 4). En effet, nous explorons la relation entre l’adoption des règles budgétaires et la réduction des inégalités de revenus (Chapitre 3) et nous trouvons que l’adoption des règles budgétaires réduit les inégalités de revenus. Ces pays pourront financer leur développement de façon soutenable (à travers la réduction des inégalités) en adoptant des règles budgétaires. En outre, nous évaluons les effets de la lutte contre les flux financiers illicites sur la mobilisation de recettes fiscales (Chapitre 4). Nous révélons que les pays qui respectent les Recommandations du Groupe d’Action Financière (GAFI) en matière de lutte contre le blanchiment d’argent et le financement du terrorisme (pays coopératifs) enregistrent des montants de recettes fiscales plus élevés comparativement aux pays qui ne respectent pas ces Recommandations (pays non coopératifs). Par conséquent, les pays en développement pourront mobiliser plus de recettes fiscales en mettant en œuvre des politiques visant à empêcher les flux financiers illicites. Par ailleurs, ils doivent mettre en place de bonnes institutions
The central question of this thesis is how fiscal policy could be used for development finance purposes. Indeed, we identify and investigate pathways through which developing states can mobilize resources to improve sustainable development. For this purpose, we conduct policy-oriented researches (using suitable statistical and econometrical tools) and provide advices for developing countries. The first part of the dissertation addresses the issue of external resources mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 1 and Chapter 2). In Chapter 1, we investigate the effects of public expenditures on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. We show that developing countries could have a better access to international financial market by supporting public investment and reducing current spending. Specifically, spending on human capital (education and health) and other public infrastructures significantly reduce bond spreads. They should also improve the quality of governance since financial markets award well-governed countries with better borrowing conditions. We examine, in Chapter 2, the strength of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial markets access for developing countries. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and consequently improve financial market access. Indeed, this result is explained by the credibility of fiscal policy channel: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets with low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access. The second part of the dissertation focuses on what developing countries could do to improve internal resources mobilization (Chapter 3 and Chapter 4). As a matter of fact, we explore the relationship between fiscal rules and inequality (Chapter 3) and find that fiscal rules adoption contributes to reduce inequality in developing countries. The policy implication is that developing countries could finance their development in a sustainable way (via the reduction of inequalities) by adopting fiscal rules. Moreover, we assess the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 4). We highlight that countries which cooperate with international standards for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) are more able to mobilize tax revenue than countries which do not cooperate. Consequently, developing countries could mobilize more domestic tax revenue by implementing policies to curtail illicit financial flows. They should establish sound institutions

La problématique du financement du développement dans les pays en développement se trouve au coeur de cette thèse. Cette dernière s'articule autour de quatre chapitres sur les questions liées au financement du développement. Le chapitre 1 explore les effets des épisodes budgétaires dans les principaux pays donateurs principaux de l'OCDE (Organisation pour la Coopération et le Développement Economique) sur leur offre d'aide au développement aux pays en développement. On observe que les épisodes budgétaires affectent significativement l'offre d'aide, avec une différence comportementale en termes d'offre d'aide du groupe de pays de l'Union européenne versus le groupe de pays de l'OCDE n'appartenant pas à L'Union européenne. Le chapitre 2 s'intéresse aux conséquences des transferts des migrants et de l'imprévisibilité de l'aide au développement sur la probabilité de consolidation budgétaire dans les pays en développement. Les résultats montrent que les transferts des migrants affectent positivement et significativement cette probabilité alors que l'effet est statistiquement nul pour l'imprévisibilité de l'aide. Ces résultats suggèrent en l'occurrence qu'une meilleure gestion des recettes issues de ces transferts durant les périodes de boom économique pourrait aider à éviter de telles situations et offrir une marge de manoeuvre plus importante à ces gouvernements pour la mise en oeuvre de politiques contra-cycliques pendant les périodes de basse conjoncture. Le chapitre 3 analyse l'existence ou non d'effet de la vulnérabilité structurelle des pays en développement sur leur dette publique totale. Les résultats suggèrent qu'un tel effet existe : en l'occurrence, on montre l'existence d'une relation en forme de 'U' entre la vulnérabilité structurelle de ces pays et leur dette publique totale. En focalisant dans le chapitre 4 sur les pays de la zone Franc CFA, nous examinons si leur vulnérabilité structurelle conduit les gouvernements à un endettement excessif. Les résultats suggèrent que plus ces pays sont vulnérables, plus ils sont enclins à un endettement excessif et qu'au-delà d'un seuil de vulnérabilité, leur probabilité d'endettement excessif diminue. Ces résultats obtenus aussi bien pour l'ensemble des pays en développement que pour les pays de la zone Franc CFA suggère que les Institutions Internationales telles que la Banque Mondiale et le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) devront prendre en compte cette vulnérabilité dans l'évaluation des politiques de développement ainsi que leurs recommandations – en particulier sur les questions liées à l'endettement – pour ces pays
The issue of financing development in developing countries is at the heart of this thesis. The latter revolves around four chapters on financing development related matters. The chapter 1 explores how fiscal episodes in the main traditional OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) donors affect their supply of development aid towards developing countries. Evidence is shown that fiscal episodes affect significantly aid supply, with a behavioural difference between European Union and Non-European countries in terms of aid supply. The chapter 2 deals with the consequences of development aid unpredictability and migrants' remittances on fiscal consolidation in developing countries. We find evidence that while migrants' remittances exert a positive and significant effect on the likelihood of fiscal consolidation in developing countries, development aid unpredictability does not. These results particularly suggest that a better management of the revenues derived from these private transfers during their booms could help avoid such situations and allow greater room of maneuver for governments’ recipients to implement countercyclical measures during bad times. The chapter 3 investigates whether the structural vulnerability of developing countries matters for their public indebtedness and evidence is obtained that it does. More specifically, we observe the existence of U-curve relationship between this structural vulnerability and the total public debt of these countries. Focusing on the specific case of CFA Franc Zone countries in chapter 4, we examine the relationship between the structural vulnerability and the probability of entering into excessive public debt. We also obtain evidence of a nonlinear effect of the structural vulnerability indicator with respect to the probability of entering into excessive debt: a rise in the structural vulnerability of these countries increases their probability to engage into excessive debt; however this probability declines after a certain threshold of their structural vulnerability. These results (both for developing countries and particularly for CFA Franc Zone countries) suggest that international development institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) should take into account such vulnerability in their assessment of the adequate development policies and recommendations - especially those related to debt issues -, to these countries

The role of the government in an industrialization process of developing countries is highly debated. The opinions of scholars diverge. Proponents of extensive government involvement claim that it is a key to sustainable development, while opponents see it as an obstacle to it. The goal of my thesis is to analyze what consequences has had the reduction in the weight of the State in economies of developing countries, especially in Kenya. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first one talks about an evolution of industrial policies in the developing countries. Since the end of colonialism, import substitution had become a dominant pro development strategy in most developing countries, but in 1980s it was substituted by the structural adjustment programmes (SAPs). Those two sets of development strategies are described and assessed in this part. The second part of the thesis is a case study of Kenya. In this part I describe and assess industrialization policies of Kenyan government, analyze a change of its economic freedom since an adoption of SAPs and an influence of an increase in economic freedom on industrialization and social welfare.

This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why

Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical

benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about

future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary

variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so

correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of

integration of international financial markets.

The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory

and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty

years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to

macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly

noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the

development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general

equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical

perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data

sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for

an historical perspective).

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the

appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of

policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal

general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of

individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the

aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the

restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a

modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to

a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the

effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique

(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business

cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that

economic policy should play no role since business cycles

reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous

sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}

and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by

several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms

of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms

like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient

responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for

example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate

some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework

and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient

fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation

mechanisms.

Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up

a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an

economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those

subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change

their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price

setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for

example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro

Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the

heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide

shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central

Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in

the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).

Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the

policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable

but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the

economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the

degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to

conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall

inflation does not imply any observable difference in the

aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the

assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction

frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a

consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker

faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,

economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This

feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives

faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence

of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy

reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the

economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in

price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave

less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal

rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive

caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central

Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not

represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be

the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant

sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.

DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and

recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of

information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the

typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,

this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,

the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions

identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms

becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in

macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.

Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter

of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers

analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and

future stance of their economies and, because of model

uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.

Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the

econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing

too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their

evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).

Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets

implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global

requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross

country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A

priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of

the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open

macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by

the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need

modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in

a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many

a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The

large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic

variables suggests the existence of few common sources of

fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which

individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the

world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers

with different sign and intensity or global technological advances

can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor

models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the

dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal

components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious

tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their

propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In

fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly

cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a

variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common

components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and

are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific

factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.

Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the

identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying

a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this

thesis exploit this idea.

The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables

help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of

consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the

economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially

relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the

European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models

can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity

of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the

role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of

prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables

and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term

and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.

However, both the academic literature and the practice of the

leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a

special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and

references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really

provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the

Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the

issue whether money provides useful information about future

inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary

variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a

large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro

Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for

the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few

synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the

large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of

variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results

show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive

performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the

period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.

Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on

the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.

However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors

reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate

benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary

variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample

up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current

forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.

The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone

and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium

explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found

that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly

comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should

allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial

markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and

investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has

strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's

seminal paper while the association between saving and investment

does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium

mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the

correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,

affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global

capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global

interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across

national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical

studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects

of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions

failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show

that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks

may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to

properly isolate components of saving and investment that are

affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor

augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate

idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of

heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,

by applying our methodology, the association between domestic

saving and investment decreases considerably over time,

consistently with the observed increase in international capital

mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation

between saving and investment disappears.

Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This thesis investigates impacts of oil price on monetary policy in oil-exporting countries. The second chapter reviews the forward-looking new Keynesian model, to show the need for credibility and conservativeness in order to have less inflation, which are the theoretical foundations of central bank independence (CBI). Then by defining CBI in detail and reviewing indices for CBI, the thesis looks at the empirical works undertaken in countries to see whether or not theory is supported in the real world. In the third chapter, the thesis applies central bank independence index to assess empirically the impact of an oil price shock on monetary policy in oil-exporting countries. Two legal central bank independence indices are chosen and calculated for the top nine oil-exporting countries. Using a panel data set and a fixed effects model, it is shown that a monetary authority with higher central bank independence implements a more contractionary (or less expansionary) monetary policy after an increase in oil price compared to another central bank which is more dependent. Chapter four considers linearity and specification tests along with estimating in vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models and tries to improve them. In the empirical section, a VAR model with time varying coefficients are proposed to analyse the relationship between inflation and monetary policy in Iran as an oil-based economy. The form of coefficients is a logistic smooth transition function and oil price is used as the transition variable. This VSTR model has two different regimes based on high and low oil price and they have different dynamic properties. The model supports the asymmetric effects of real money and oil price on inflation and shows that the central bank cares more about inflation in the regime with high levels of oil price. This chapter also shows that forecasting of inflation with the VSTR is superior to forecasting using the linear VAR.

La problématique de cette thèse se résume à deux questions liées aux économies en transition. La première est pourquoi quelques pays convergent vers les critères d'accession à la zone Euro, tandis que d'autres sont toujours loin de ces critères de stabilité. La deuxième question est comment a changé la structure de l'économie et la politique monétaire pendant la transition. Je réponds à ces questions en analysant des modèles dynamiques et stochastiques d'équilibre général (DSGE) en utilisant des méthodes économétriques Bayésiennes. Les techniques d'évaluation habituelles ont été étendues pour considérer des changements structurels de l'économie. Dans le premier chapitre, on a présenté la méthode d’estimation Bayésienne des modèles DSGE linéaires. Dans le deuxième chapitre, on construit un modèle DSGE incorporant quelques caractéristiques des économies en transition et l'ai évalué en utilisant la méthode Bayésienne. Enfin, dans le troisième chapitre, on estime un modèle intégrant une date de rupture structurelle dans les paramètres et de l’heteroskedasticité des chocs
In this thesis, I have considered two questions related to transition economies in Central Europe. The first is why some countries converge toward the Euro area accession criteria, while others are still far from the stability criteria. The second question is how did the structure of the economy and the monetary policy change during the transition. I answer to these questions by analysing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models using Bayesian econometric methods. I have extended the usual estimation techniques in order to consider structural changes in the economy. In the first chapter, I introduce the general methodology of Bayesian estimation of linear DSGE models. In the second chapter, I have built a DSGE model incorporating some features of the transition economies and have estimated it using the Bayesian method. Finally, in the third chapter, I have estimated a model considering a structural change date in parameters and heteroskedasticity of shocks

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the impact of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans since the adoption of the governance mandate on overall government capability. The study will explore whether the presence of IMF loans in developing countries enhances state capacity. Administrative capacity is of particular importance because it is a requisite for the integration of state and society in the national political arena and encourages joint involvement of government and citizenry in overall representation of societal interests. The model designed to test the two primary hypotheses is comprised of a simultaneous system of equations. Despite criticisms of IMF conditionality arrangements, it appears that these programs are largely effective at increasing administrative capacity, an important factor in achieving economic growth and national ownership of IMF development programs.

My PhD dissertation concentrates on the theoretical analysis of the way monetary and fiscal policies should be conducted in the European Monetary Union (EMU) accession countries. Importantly fiscal and monetary policies in these countries are required to satisfy the membership requirements of the EMU summarized in the Maastricht Treaty. My interest lies in identifying the implications of different monetary and fiscal policies on the compliance with the Maastricht criteria. I characterize the optimal monetary policy and also optimal interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in the EMU accession countries. I study how the Maastricht criteria affect the design of optimal policies and their ability to stabilize business cycle fluctuations. In order to address all these issues I perform the whole analysis in the framework of a two-sector small open economy model incorporating frictions such as price stickiness and distortionary taxation. The model is calibrated to match the moments of the Czech Republic economy. In Chapter 1 I study the ability of different monetary regimes to satisfy the Maastricht convergence criteria. I analyze regimes that reflect the policy choices observed in the EMU accession countries, i.e. a peg regime, a managed float and a flexible exchange rate regime with CPI inflation targeting. I find that there exists a significant trade-off between compliance with the CPI inflation criterion and the nominal interest rate criterion. Under the benchmark parameterization none of the regimes satisfies all the criteria. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the probability that some of the regimes will satisfy all the criteria increases with openness of the economy and degree of substitution between home and foreign traded goods. However the ultimate choice of the regime which satisfies all the criteria depends on the degree of exchange rate-pass through. Chapter 2 focuses on characterization of optimal monetary policy for EMU accession countries in the framework of the already developed model. I find that the optimal monetary policy in a two-sector small open economy should not only target inflation rates in the domestic sectors and aggregate output fluctuations, but also domestic and international terms of trade. Under the chosen parameterization optimal monetary policy does not satisfy the CPI inflation and the nominal interest rate criteria. The optimal constrained policy induces smaller variability of the CPI inflation and of the nominal interest rate. At the same, it is also characterized by a deflationary bias which results in targeting CPI inflation rate and nominal interest rate that are 0.7% p.a. lower than their equivalents in the reference countries. In Chapter 3 I incorporate fiscal policy by endogenising tax and debt decisions and restricting taxes to only distortionary ones. I find that targets of the unconstrained optimal monetary and fiscal policy are similar to those of the optimal monetary policy alone. Under the chosen parameterization, the optimal policy violates three Maastricht criteria: on the CPI inflation rate, the nominal interest rate and deficit to GDP ratio. Since monetary criteria play a dominant role in affecting the stabilization process of the constrained policy, CPI inflation and the nominal interest rate are characterized by a smaller variability at the expense of a higher variability of deficit to GDP ratio. The constrained policy is characterized by a deflationary bias which results in targeting the CPI inflation rate and the nominal interest rate that are lower by 1.3% p.a. than their equivalents in the countries taken as a reference. The constrained policy is also characterized by targeting surplus to GDP ratio at around 3.7%.
Mi tesis doctoral se centra en el análisis teórico de las políticas monetarias y fiscales que deben llevarse a cabo en los países candidatos a la Unión Monetaria Europea (UEM). Es importante destacar que las políticas fiscales y monetarias de estos países tienen la obligación de satisfacer las condiciones de adhesión a la UEM resumidos en el Tratado de Maastricht. Mi interés se concentra en la identificación de las consecuencias de las distintas políticas monetarias y fiscales sobre el cumplimiento de los criterios de Maastricht. Mi tesis describe tanto la política monetaria óptima como la interacción óptima entre la política monetaria y fiscal en los países candidatos a la UEM. También se analiza cómo las condiciones de Maastricht afectan al diseño de las políticas optímas y su capacidad para estabilizar las fluctuaciones del ciclo económico. A fin de abordar estas preguntas se realiza todo el análisis en el marco de un modelo de economía pequeña y abierta con dos sectores que incorpora fricciones, tales como rigidez de precios e impuestos distorsionantes. El modelo está calibrado para que coincida con los momentos estadísticos de variables económicas de la República Checa. En el capítulo 1 se estudia la capacidad de los diferentes regímenes monetarios para satisfacer las condiciones de convergencia de Maastricht. Se analizan los regímenes que reflejan las opciones políticas observadas en los países candidatos a la UEM, es decir, un régimen de paridad, de flotación administrada y de tipo de cambio flexible. Existe una fuerte relación inversa entre el cumplimiento de las condiciones de inflación y del tipo de interés nominal. Bajo la parametrización escogida ninguno de los regímenes satisface todas las condiciones. El análisis de sensibilidad pone de manifiesto que la probabilidad de que algunos de los regímenes cumplan todas las condiciones aumenta con la apertura de la economía y el grado de sustitución entre bienes nacionales y extranjeros. Sin embargo, la elección final del régimen que cumple todas las condiciones depende del efecto traspaso del tipo de cambio. En el capítulo 2 se describe la política monetaria óptima para los países adheridos a la UEM en el marco del modelo ya desarrollado. La política monetaria óptima en una economía pequeña y abierta con dos sectores no sólo debería centrarse en las tasas de inflación en los sectores domésticos y las fluctuaciones de la producción total, sino también en los términos de intercambio domésticos e internacionales. Bajo la parametrización elegida la política monetaria óptima no cumple las condiciones relacionadas a la inflación y a la tasa de interés nominal. La política óptima restringida induce menor variabilidad de la inflación y de la tasa de interés nominal. Al mismo tiempo, esta politica también se caracteriza por una tendencia deflacionaria que se traduce en la selección de los objetivos de tasa de inflación y tasa de interés nominal que son inferiores en 0.7% anual a sus equivalentes en los países de referencia. En el capítulo 3 se incorpora la política fiscal endogenizando las decisiones fiscales, de endeudamiento público y de impuestos distosionantes. Los objetivos de las políticas fiscal y monetaria son similares a los de la política monetaria óptima. Bajo la parametrización elegida, la política óptima no cumple con tres condiciones de Maastricht: la tasa de inflación, la tasa de interés nominal y el ratio déficit / PIB. Como las condiciones monetarias juegan un papel predominante en el diseño de la política restringida, la inflación y la tasa de interés nominal se caracterizan por una menor variabilidad a costa de una mayor variabilidad de la relación déficit / PIB. La política restringida se caracteriza por una tendencia deflacionaria que implica la selección de objetivos de tasa de inflación y tasa de interés nominal que son inferiores en 1.3% anual a sus equivalentes en los países tomados como referencia. La política restringida también requiere un objetivo de superávit en torno al 3,7% del PIB.

Successive Canadian federal governments have officially indicated their support of human rights in foreign policy, including as they relate to aid-giving. This thesis quantitatively tests this rhetoric with the actual practice of bilateral aid-giving in two time periods – 1998-2000 and 2007-2009. This, however, revealed that Canada has actually tended to give more bilateral aid to countries with poorer human rights records. A deeper quantitative analysis identifies certain multilateral memberships – notably with the Commonwealth, NATO, and OECD – and the geo-political and domestic considerations of Haiti as significant and confirms a recipient state’s human rights performance is not a consideration. These multilateral relationships reflect state self-interests, historical connections, security, and a normative commitment to poverty reduction. It is these factors that those promoting a human rights agenda need to contemplate if recipient state performance is to become relevant in bilateral aid decisions. Thus, it is necessary to turn to international relations theory, in particular liberal institutionalism, to explain Canada’s bilateral aid-giving in these periods.
vi, 141 leaves ; 29 cm

The management of water resources around the world, and especially in countries with limited financial resources involves challenges that defy the sustainability and equitative use of the water. Governments have tended to respond through legislation to restrict uses and to redirect water management decisions to the Government itself. However, these fixed responses have proved not being effective due to the limited presence of central governments in the different watersheds. Consequences of this type of setting are a poor understanding of the hydrological issues, poor sustainability of the resources and unequitative distribution of water. On the other hand management of water resources, under a systematical view and under the administration of local users has been proved effective. The implementation of such managements allows a better adaptation of rules to local settings, the participation of the people and a permanent learning from the system. They seem a more advantageous water management approach for those countries where financial crisis do not allow a good monitoring and administration of their resources. Discussions about the topic are provided in the present thesis.

There exists no predefined framework for aviation policy making and development. While aviation policy planning in most developed countries comes as a result of institutional and industry coordination and is embedded within other national policies addressing the welfare and growth of the country, it is found that in many cases in less developed countries (LDCs), aviation policy planning is often influenced by political pressures and the interests of fund donors. The complexity of this situation in the developing countries results in aviation plans that represent stand alone studies and attempt to find solutions to specific problems rather than comprehensive aviation plans which fit well the country‘s competitiveness profile and are properly coordinated with other national policies for achieving medium and long-term objectives. This study provides a three-stage policy development framework for aviation strategic planning based on situational analysis and performance benchmarking practices in order to assemble policy elements and produce a best-fit aviation strategy. The framework builds on study results that indicate an association between air transport sector performance and aviation policy strategies, arguing that it is not sufficient to simply describe performance but also to be able to assess it and understand how policymakers can use strategic planning tools to affect the air transport industry efficiency levels. This can be achieved by recognizing the level of the country‘s stage of development and working on enhancing the policy elements that produce better output and induce more contributions by aviation to the national economic development and connectivity levels. The proposed aviation policy development framework is systematic and continuous. It helps policymakers in LDC to manage uncertainty in complex situations by allowing them to defend, correct and re-examine the policy actions based on a forward thinking approach which incorporates the contingency elements of the policy and tracks the developments that can affect the odds of its success. The framework‘s elements and its flow of process are explained by providing an illustrative example applied to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.