Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Monetary Policy Reaction Function'

COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
Esta dissertação visa estudar a função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil durante o Plano Real. Argumenta-se que a taxa de juros nominal foi o instrumento mais importante de política monetária, sendo ajustado como resposta a variações na taxa de inflação, hiato do produto, reservas internacionais e ao seu próprio defasado. Estima-se então um modelo linear para a taxa de juros nominal. Em seguida, um Modelo como Limiar (modelo TAR) é usado para explicar uma mudança de regime na taxa de juros. Usando um indicador de crises cambiais, que é escolhido endogenamente, o modelo tenta explicar a diferença na dinâmica da taxa de juros durante e fora das crises. O modelo linear e o não-linear são então comparados e conclui-se que a última abordagem é a mais adequada para estudar a função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil.
This dissertation studies the Central Bank of Brazil`s reaction function during the Real Plan. It is argued that the nominal interest rate was the most important monetary policy instrument, being adjusted to changes in the rate of inflation, output gap, international reserves and its own lagged value. First, a linear model is estimated for the nominal interest rate. Second, a Threshold Autoregressive model with exogenous variables is used to explain a change in regime in interest rates. By using an indicator of currency crises, which is chosen endogenously, the model tries to explain the difference in dynamic of nominal interest rates during and out of a currency crises. The paper then compares the linear and non-linear models and shows that the latter performs considerably better than the former.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
O desempenho económico de um país depende sobretudo da relação entre as autoridades monetária e fiscal. Usando dados de painel e um conjunto individual de 14 países da União Europeia desde 1970 a 2012, estudámos as políticas de ambas as autoridades e como as mesmas são influenciadas por determinadas variáveis económicas e eventos (Tratado de Maastricht, Pacto de Estabilidade e Crescimento, euro e crises). Os resultados mostram que a inflação tem um impacto significativo na política monetária e que os governos aumentam o seu saldo primário diante de crescimentos da dívida. Um outro objectivo é caracterizar as interacções que os bancos centrais e os governos nacionais estabelecem, ou seja, se as suas políticas se complementam ou se existe uma política dominante. As nossas provas apresentam uma relação de substituição entre as duas autoridades, onde o banco central assume um papel mais rígido, especialmente no caso de níveis elevados de dívida.
The economic performance of a country depends notably on the relation between monetary and fiscal authorities. Using a panel data and an individual set of 14 EU countries from 1970 to 2012, we study the type of policies of both authorities, and how they are influenced by certain economic variables and events (Maastricht Treaty, Stability and Growth Pact, euro and crises). Results show that inflation has a significant impact on monetary policy, and that governments raise their primary balance when facing debt increases. Another goal is to characterize the type of interactions central banks and national governments establish, i.e. if their policies complement one another or if there is a more dominant one. Our evidence shows a substitution relation between both authorities, where central bank assumes a demanding role, especially in the case of higher levels of debt.

The relations between monetary policies, asset prices, and economic growth are important and fundamental questions in macroeconomics. To address these issues, several empirical works have been conducted to investigate these relations. However, few of them have documented whether these relations differ across regimes. In this context, the general motivation of this thesis is to use dependent regime models to examine these relations for the Canadian case. Chapter one empirically analyzes the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by taking into account the asymmetry in the loss function. We employ a switching regime framework using two estimation strategies: First, we follow Caner and Hansen (2004) Threshold approach. Under this procedure we estimate the threshold values, using the Taylor empirical rules. Second, we estimate the asymmetric policy reaction function following Favero and Rovelli’s (2003) approach. The results reveal that the monetary authorities showed asymmetric preferences and that its reaction function can be better modeled with a nonlinear model. The main contribution of this chapter is to successfully interpret the parameters associated with the Bank of Canada preferences, something that Rodriguez (2008) could not do. Chapter two tries to estimate the interest rate behaviour of the Canadian monetary authorities by expanding the arguments of the loss function for fluctuations in asset prices. Using the same methodology as in the first chapter, our findings suggest that the augmented nonlinear reaction function is a good fit for the data and gives new relevant insights into the influence of asset prices on Canadian monetary policy. These findings about the role of asset prices in the reaction function of the Bank of Canada provide relevant insights regarding the opportunities and limitations of incorporating financial indicators in monetary policy decision making. They also provide financial market participants, such as analysts, bankers and traders, with a better understanding of the impact of stock market index prices on Bank of Canada policy. Stock market stabilization plays a larger role in the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada than it is willing to admit. Chapter three provides new evidence on the relation between inflation, relative price variability and economic growth to a panel of Canadian provinces over the period 1981-2008. We use the Bick and Nautz (2008) modified version of Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Model. The evidence strongly supports the view that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. Further investigation suggests that relative price variability is one of the important channels through which inflation affects economic performance in Canadian provinces. When taking into account the cross-section dependence, we find that the critical threshold value slightly changes. It is desirable to keep the inflation rate in a moderate inflation regime because it may be helpful for the achievement of sustainable economic growth. The results seem to indicate that inflation that is too high or too low may have detrimental effects on economic growth.

For more than two decades, monetary policy of countries around the world has undergone significant transformation. The long-term stabilization and lowering of inflation is the primary target of central banks founded on the principles of transparency and credibility. The achievement of inflation targeting and control is ultimately judged by the public’s expectations about future inflation. This objective has focused central bank policy making on modern monetary principles and the adoption of one of its core principles, the monetary policy rule. The central bank of the United Kingdom officially adopted an explicit inflating targeting monetary policy in October 1992 following its operational independence in May 1997. In this study, we attempt to investigate the behaviour of the Central Bank of England under an inflation targeting framework. In other words, whether Taylor-type policy rules can be used to describe the behaviour of the Central Bank of England. We specifically attempt to shed light on the question does Taylor's rule (Taylor, 1993) adequately describes central bank behaviour? And whether the existence of formal targets has induced nonlinearity in this behaviour, beginning in October 1992 until December 2014. The study uses time series estimations of Taylor-type reactions functions to characterise monetary policy conduct in the UK, we use time series data, because all the other studies in this area are using the time series method and recommended it, Osterholm (2005), Nelson (2000), Adam et al (2003), Clarida et al (2000) amongst others. In addition, this study uses a long database which is useful for time series analysis. The analysis uses a modified cointegration and error correction model that is robust to the stationary properties of the data as well as vector autoregression techniques; therefore, our methodology in this study employed three types of econometric tests namely: unit root tests, cointegration tests and error correction models. We used monthly data for the UK over the period October 1992 to December 2014, and we estimate Taylor-type policy rules for the UK in order to find answers to these questions. Our results indicate that the Central Bank of England has not been following the Taylor rule. In other words, the regression results clearly indicated that the Central Bank of England did not follow the Taylor rule in the period 1992-2014. This is because all coefficients of inflation gap and the output gap were statistically insignificant. In addition, we conclude these results link with the New Consensus Macroeconomics, criticism of inflation targeting and endogenous money theory. The main contribution in this study is an up-to-date analysis, and evidence that Bank of England policy does not work with Taylor rules. In addition, on the methodological level most previous studies reviewed in the literature have measured the interest rate, inflation and the output gap using one dependent variable, to measure the behaviour of the Central Bank of England, to assess whether the Taylor rule is effective or not. However, this study fills this gap by using two measure for interest rate, three measure for inflation and two variables to measure the output gap, using The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and moving averages, to assess whether the Taylor rule is effective or not effective by using more than one dependent variable.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Através da utilização de dados de painel para os países da UE, para o período compreendido entre 1995 e 2019, este trabalho pretende estudar a condução de política monetária, política fiscal e as interações entre as mesmas. O nosso objetivo passa por entender as diferenças que existem entre a zona do euro e os países que não pertencem à mesma, assim como o efeito da crise financeira sobre as mesmas. Os resultados alcançados mostram que a inflação é crucial para a determinação das taxas de juro e que as autoridades fiscais apresentam preocupação no que toca à saúde das finanças públicas. No que toca às interações entre estas duas políticas, há evidência de que a relação existente é de substituição, no entanto sem resposta da autoridade monetária à política fiscal. A crise financeira apresenta um impacto negativo sobre a taxas de juro nominais de curto prazo, assim como sobre o défice primário ajustado ao ciclo, no entanto com uma maior intensidade na zona euro.
Performing a panel data analysis for the EU countries, for the period between 1995 and 2019, this work studies the individual conduction of monetary and fiscal policies, so as the interactions among them. We aim to understand the differences that exist between the euro area and the non-euro area countries and how the financial crisis affects them. Results show that inflation is crucial for the determination of interest rates and fiscal authorities are concerned with the health of public finances. Concerning the interactions between these two policies, there is evidence that it is a relation of substitutability, however with no response of monetary authorities to fiscal policy. The financial crisis impacted negatively both the short-term nominal interest rates and the cyclically adjusted primary balance, however with a higher degree in the euro area.
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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Esta dissertação lança alguma luz sobre os elementos que regem a tomada de decisões de política monetária durante o período 2000Q1-2015Q1 em Moçambique, ou seja, se a autoridade monetária do país, o Banco de Moçambique (BM), poderia ter-se comportado de forma diferente ao longo do tempo condicionado a pressões inflacionárias e ao desvio do produto em relação à meta, mudando entre períodos em que a inflação era a principal preocupação da política ou não. Existem várias abordagens para avaliar a dinâmica não-linear da função de reação do banco central. Em primeiro lugar, nós investigamos se as respostas das taxas de juro mudam com o sinal de desvios de inflação e do produto. Em segundo lugar, avaliamos a capacidade de resposta da taxa de juro de curto prazo para a magnitude dos choques de preços e do desvio do produto em relação à meta. Finalmente, usamos um modelo de mudança Markov regime de política monetária tendo como modelo base uma variante da regra de Taylor. A conclusão geral é que somente mudanças na inflação provocam reação do BM. O único elemento do modelo Markov é a uma fraca mudança na estabilidade de preços entre 2000Q1-2006Q4 e 2007Q1-2015Q1
This dissertation sheds some light into the elements governing monetary policy-making during 2000Q1-2015Q1 sample period in Mozambique, i.e., whether the monetary authority of this country, Banco de Moçambique (BM), might have behaved differently over time conditional to price pressures and outputs swings, switching between periods when inflation was the primary concern of policy or other way round. There are several approaches to assess nonlinear dynamics of central bank reaction function. First, we investigate whether the interest rate responses change with the sign of inflation and output deviations. Second, we evaluate the responsiveness of the short-term interest rate to the size of price and output shocks. Finally, we use a Markov switching model to estimate a time-varying Taylor-type rule for the BM. The general finding is that only changes in inflation brings about reaction of the BM. The only element of Markov switching model is captured by a weak change in price stability from 2000Q1-2006Q4 sample sub-period to 2007Q1-2015Q1 sample sub-period.

Esta tese apresenta três ensaios sobre política monetária e fiscal dentro do atual regime de metas de inflação. O primeiro ensaio buscou estudar uma possível integração monetária-fiscal ao determinar uma regra ótima de política monetária com restrição fiscal, analisando os efeitos de diversas preferências sobre a regra ótima em função da alteração dos pesos dados para os desvios da razão superávit primário/PIB em relação à sua meta pré-estabelecida. Os resultados mostraram que a regra ótima obtida apresenta uma resposta negativa das taxas de juros aos choques na relação dívida/PIB. Ainda, superávits primários/PIB maiores permitiriam reduções maiores nas taxas de juros e proporcionais aos pesos que essa variávelobjetivo teria na função de perda social. Do ponto de vista tradicional do mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária, a resposta positiva das taxas de juros a uma desvalorização real do câmbio e a uma elevação do prêmio de risco seria mantida. Portanto, os resultados sugerem que a adoção de uma meta explícita para o superávit primário/PIB tem conseqüências positivas sobre a regra ótima de política monetária e para a redução da taxa de juros, bem como na eficiência do atual instrumento de política monetária. O segundo ensaio buscou analisar a relação risco default através do modelo de regressão beta, bem como os impactos que os superávits primários podem trazer sobre o prêmio de risco e, consequentemente, sobre o câmbio. Do ponto de vista da relação default risk, ancorada no modelo de Blanchard (2004/2005), as estimativas baseadas no modelo de regressão beta para as quatro relações propostas neste ensaio apresentaram sinais estatisticamente significativos e compatíveis com a teoria. O fato interessante nos resultados referente ao período do regime de metas de inflação é que as estimativas indicaram uma relação direta e forte entre o superávit primário/PIB e a probabilidade de default; evidências que destacam a importância dos efeitos indiretos que o superávit pode gerar sobre o juro doméstico. O terceiro ensaio analisou a dinâmica discreta da taxa de juros SELIC-meta definida nas reuniões do Comitê de Política Monetária (COPOM). Dois métodos foram utilizados para estudar a possibilidade de o COPOM reduzir/manter/aumentar a taxa de juros básica: probit binomial e probit multinomial. Os resultados mostraram que os desvios de inflação e o hiato do produto são variáveis relevantes para explicar as decisões do COPOM. O modelo probit binomial aplicado para os casos de aumento e redução da taxa SELIC-meta mostraram que a inclusão da variável fiscal gerou melhores resultados. Para o caso agregado, método probit multinomial, os resultados indicaram que a inclusão da variável fiscal combinada com a expectativa de inflação gerou os melhores resultados relativamente aos demais casos. Assim, a resposta do COPOM a resultados fiscais bem como às expectativas do mercado quanto à inflação demonstraram ser os sinais que devem ser observados pelo mercado.
This thesis presents three essays on monetary and fiscal policy of the current regimen of inflation targeting. The first essay searched to study an integration monetary-fiscal when determining an optimal rule of monetary policy with fiscal restriction, analyzing the effect of diverse preferences on the optimal rule in function of the alteration of the weights given for the deviations of the surplus primary as a fraction of GDP in relation to its established targets. The results show that the gotten optimal rule presents a negative reply of the interest rates to the shocks in the debtto- GDP ratio. Primary surplus still bigger would allow bigger reductions in the interest rates and proportional to the weights that this variable-objective would have in the function of social loss. Of the traditional point of view of the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy, the positive reply of the interest rates to a real depreciation of the exchange and to a rise of the risk premium it would be kept. Therefore, the results suggest that the adoption of explicit targets for the primary surplus in percentage of the GDP has positive consequences on the optimal rule of monetary policy and for the reduction of the interest rates, as well as in the efficiency of the current instrument of monetary policy. The second essay searched to analyze the relation default risk through of the beta regression model, as well as the impacts that primary surplus can bring on the risk premium and, consequently, on the exchange rate. Of the point of view of the relation default risk, anchored in the model of Blanchard (2004/2005), the estimates based on the beta regression model for the four relations proposals in the study had presented significant and compatible signals with the theory. The interesting fact in the results referring to the period of the regimen of inflation targeting is that the estimates had indicated a negative and strong relation between the primary surplus/GDP and the probability of default, evidences that detaching the importance of the positive and indirect impact of the surplus in relation to the interests rate domestic. The third analyzes the discrete dynamics of the SELIC interest rates-target defined in the meetings of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Council (COPOM). Two methods were applied in order to study the possibility of COPOM to reduce/maintain/increase the interest rates: probit model and multinomial probit. It was verified that the deviations of inflation and the GDP gap must be considered importants variables to explain the COPOM’s decisions. The probit model was applied to the cases of the increases probabilies and reduces probabilities showing that the inclusion of a fiscal variable generates better results. To the aggregated case, multinominal probit method, the results indicates that the inclusion of a fiscal variables combined with the inflation expectations generates better results than other possibilities. So, the responses of COPOM to the fiscal results as well as inflation expectations were the reals signs to be considered for the market.

We investigate the practical use of Taylor-type rules in Trinidad and Tobago, which is in the process of implementing market based monetary policy and seeks to implement flexible inflation targeting in the presence of a managed exchange rate. This is motivated by the idea that normative Taylor rules can be shaped by the practical experience of developing countries. We find that the inflation – exchange rate nexus is strong, hence the country may be unwilling to allow the exchange rate to float freely. We contend that despite weak market development the Taylor rule can still be applied as the central bank is able to use moral suasion to achieve full pass through of the policy rate to the market rate. Our evidence rejects Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) argument that the optimal monetary policy rule for the open economy is isomorphic for a closed economy. Rather, our evidence suggests that the rule for the open economy allows for lower variability when the rule is augmented by the real exchange rate as in Taylor (2001). We also reject Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) hypothesis that domestic inflation is optimal for inclusion in the Taylor-type rule. Instead we find that core CPI inflation leads to lower variability. Additionally, our evidence suggests that the monetary rule, when applied to Trinidad and Tobago, is accommodating to the US Federal Reserve rate. Further, we expand the work of Martin and Milas (2010) which considered the pass through of the policy rate to the interbank rate in the presence of risk and liquidity. By extending the transmission to the market lending rate, we are able to go beyond those disruptive factors by considering excess liquidity and spillovers of international economic disturbances. We found that these shocks are significant for Trinidad and Tobago, but it is not significant enough to disrupt the pass through. As a result, full pass through was robust to the presence of these disruptive factors.

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Este trabalho investiga a função de reação de política monetária, seguindo a abordagem da Regra de Taylor para avaliar o desempenho dessa política, conduzida pela Reserva Federal (FED), pelo Banco do Japão (BOJ) e pelo Banco Central Europeu (ECB), durante o período selecionado para a pesquisa. Considerou-se para a análise, tanto para o FED como para o BOJ, o período de janeiro de 1990 até junho de 2008; enquanto que para o ECB, em virtude da constituição da Área do euro, a análise abrange janeiro de 1998 a junho de 2008. Inicialmente, é realizada a revisão da literatura sobre discricionariedade versus regras de política monetária, em que são apresentados alguns resultados empíricos sobre o uso de regras na condução da política monetária. Num segundo momento, faz-se uma abordagem sobre como estão estruturados os bancos centrais e os sistemas de pagamentos dos países selecionados. Além disso, traçam-se considerações sobre o regime monetário e cambial de cada economia e faz-se também uma breve retrospectiva da c
This work investigates the function of reaction of monetary policy following the approach of the Taylor Rule to evaluate the performance of this policy, lead for the Federal Reserve (FED), for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and for European Central Bank (ECB), during the period selected for the research. It was considered for the analysis, as much for the FED how much for the BOJ, the period of January 1990 until June 2008; whereas for the ECB, in virtue of the constitution of the Euro Area, the analysis encloses January 1998 until June 2008. Initially, the revision of literature on discretion versus rules of monetary policy is made, where some empirical results on the use of rules in the conduction of the monetary policy are presented. At as a moment, approach becomes on as the central banks and the systems of payments of the selected countries are structuralized. Moreover, considerations are traced on the monetary and exchange regimen of each economy and become one brief retrospective of the management of the mone

Les Banques centrales occupent une position essentielle au coeur des économies contemporaines et font l'objet de débats animés sur ce que devraient être le rôle, les objectifs et le cadre institutionnel d'une Banque centrale. Face à une multitude d'analyses normatives concernées par ce qui doit être, on note une absence relative d'analyses positives. L'objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à éclairer la réflexion sur les choix de politique monétaire mis en oeuvre par les Banques centrales. Le cadre d'application empirique retenu pour notre recherche est celui de l'Union économique et monétaire (UEM). La place importante de cet ensemble économique sur la scène internationale et son cadre institutionnel particulier suffisent à justifier l'intérêt d'une étude du comportement de la Banque Centrale Européenne (BCE). Les nombreux débats qui ont accompagné la mise en place de cette institution encore relativement jeune et ceux qui se poursuivent aujourd'hui renforcent cet intérêt. Dans la littérature économique, deux lignes de conduite ont principalement été retenues pour analyser les choix effectifs de la politique monétaire des banques centrales. La première approche, que nous avons qualifiée d' « économique », consiste en la formulation et l'estimation des fonctions de réaction de politique monétaire déduites d'un comportement d'optimisation ne prenant en compte que des variables économiques. Cette approche est fondée sur une vision globalisante de l'autorité monétaire
Central banks occupy a key position at the heart of contemporary economies and are the subject of lively debates about what should be the role, the objectives and the institutional framework of a central bank. In the presence of a multitude of normative analyses concerned with what should be, there is a relative lack of positive tests. The objective of this thesis is to contribute to elucidate the reflections on monetary policy choices implemented by central banks. The empirical application framework used for this research is that of the European Monetary Union (EMU). The crucial position of this economic entity on the international scene and its particular institutional framework suffice to justify the interest of analysing the behaviour of the European Central Bank (ECB). The numerous debates that accompanied the establishment of this still relatively young institution and those who continue today reinforce this interest. In economic literature, two guidelines were mainly used to analyse the actual choices of the monetary policy of central banks. The first approach, which we call "economic", is the formulation and estimation of reaction functions of monetary policy derived from optimising behaviour taking into account economic variables only. This approach relies on a globalising vision of the monetary authority

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
No contexto da literatura sobre política monetária, uma questão que tem sido objecto de discussão é a utilização de regras de política monetária como um instrumento dos bancos centrais para conduzirem e comunicarem a política seguida. Por regras de política monetária entende-se o compromisso da autoridade em cumprir um determinado objectivo ou em estabelecer a trajectória do instrumento da política de uma forma clara e transparente. Uma das regras muito discutida é a regra de Taylor, que relaciona o instrumento da política, a taxa de juro, com apenas duas variáveis: a inflação e o hiato do produto. Neste trabalho procura-se fazer um resumo da literatura sobre esta regra realçando as várias abordagens, nomeadamente a adequação empírica da regra à política realizada, através de estimação de funções de reacção, o estudo como regra óptima em modelos macroeconómicos simples e a análise do seu desempenho em modelos, nos quais não foi deduzida em termos óptimos. Numa segunda parte do trabalho pretende-se validar a sua utilização como forma de representar a política alemã, através da estimação da função de reacção do Bundesbank com uma abordagem de cointegração.
In the context of the literature about monetary policy, one question many times discussed is the utilisation of monetary policy rules as an instrument of the central banks to conduct and communicate the followed policy. By monetary policy rules one understands the commitment of the authority in delivering a determined objective or in establishing a trajectory for the instrument of monetary policy in a transparent way. One of the rules that as been object of discussion is the Taylor rule that establishes a relation between the instrument of policy, the interest rate with only two variables: the inflation and the output gap. This work presents a survey of the literature about Taylor rules taking into account several approaches, namely the empirical support through the estimation of reaction functions, the study of this rule as an optimal one in simple macro models and the analysis of the performance in models, in which it wasn't deduced in optimal terms. On the second part of the work is intend to evaluate the empirical support for the German monetary policy trough the estimation of the reaction function of Bundesbank, with a cointegration approach.

La régulation macro-économique a nécessité une ingérence croissante et massive de l’Etat dans l’économie. En conséquence, l’analyse économique se doit d’intégrer (endogénéiser) le comportement des décideurs publics dans ses schémas théoriques. Les fonctions de réaction constituent un instrument analytique qui permet de s’interroger sur les mobiles qui conditionnent les choix en matière de politique économique. Leur hypothèse de base consiste à doter l’Etat et les organismes bureaucratiques placés sous sa tutelle d’un schéma de rationalité cohérent ; celui-là même prêté par l’analyse économique traditionnelle à tout individu, à savoir la satisfaction de l’intérêt individuel. Au niveau de la politique monétaire, l’analyse du comportement de la Banque Centrale face au Gouvernement a permis de rendre compte des choix effectués dans ce domaine et d’analyser leur évolution sur les décennies 70 et 80
Macroeconomic regulation have implied an increasing interference of the State in the economic private activity. Consequently, economic analysis must endogenies the behavior of public decision makers. The reaction function of the authorities is an analytical instrument which permit to analyse political economic choices of decision makers. Their basic hypothesis is to consider that State ans its bureaucratic agents, like individuals in traditional economic analysis, have their own preferences. On the ground of monetary policy, analysis of behavior if Central Bank and Government have allowed to study the evolution of the choices of the authorities overs 70s and 80s

Cette thèse a pour objectif d’étudier l’implication des hétérogénéités structurelles dans le cadre des politiques économiques de la zone euro. Nous étudions d’abord dans quelles mesures ces hétérogénéités et l’introduction d’un objectif de stabilité financière attribué à la banque centrale affectent la stabilisation conjoncturelle suite aux chocs et la coordination entre les autorités monétaires et budgétaires. Nous montrons la pertinence croissante de la coordination avec le degré d’hétérogénéité et la pro-activité de la banque centrale suite à l’ajout de l’objectif de stabilité financière qui améliore/dégrade la stabilisation conjoncturelle selon le type de choc. Ensuite, nous étudions des fonctions de réaction budgétaire nationales qui démontrent l’hétérogénéité des comportements budgétaires des gouvernements et les différents déterminants des politiques budgétaires. Enfin, nous mettons en évidence l’impact hétérogène de la politique monétaire unique sur les pays membres. Ceci s’explique notamment par des caractéristiques structurelles hétérogènes dans les spécialisations productives, dans le fonctionnement des marchés financiers, marchés du travail etc. De même, nous posons la question de la pertinence d’une politique monétaire unique dans le cadre d’une union monétaire hétérogène, en l’absence de mécanisme d’ajustement
The aim of this thesis is to examine the implications of structural heterogeneities in the policy framework of the euro area. The first step is to analyse the extent to which structural heterogeneities and the introduction of a financial stability objective assigned to the central bank influence the coordination of monetary and fiscal authorities as well as the economic stabilization that follows after shocks. Noteworthy is the increasing relevance of coordination with the degree of heterogeneity on the one hand and a proactivity of the central bank on the other hand, which improve / corrupts cyclical stabilization according to the type of shock after a financial stability objective has been added. Next step is to examine the fiscal reaction functions in the euro area to demonstrate the heterogeneity of government fiscal behavior on the one hand and the determinants of these fiscal policies on the other. Finally, we look at the impact of the single monetary policy on the euro area Member States and highlight a completely heterogeneous transmission of monetary policy, caused in particular by structural heterogeneities in productive specializations, functioning of financial and labor markets, just to name a few. Here, we ask about the relevance of single monetary policy in the context of heterogeneous monetary union without any mechanism of adjustment

This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why

Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical

benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about

future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary

variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so

correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of

integration of international financial markets.

The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory

and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty

years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to

macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly

noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the

development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general

equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical

perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data

sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for

an historical perspective).

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the

appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of

policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal

general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of

individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the

aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the

restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a

modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to

a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the

effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique

(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business

cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that

economic policy should play no role since business cycles

reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous

sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}

and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by

several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms

of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms

like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient

responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for

example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate

some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework

and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient

fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation

mechanisms.

Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up

a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an

economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those

subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change

their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price

setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for

example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro

Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the

heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide

shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central

Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in

the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).

Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the

policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable

but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the

economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the

degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to

conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall

inflation does not imply any observable difference in the

aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the

assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction

frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a

consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker

faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,

economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This

feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives

faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence

of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy

reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the

economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in

price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave

less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal

rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive

caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central

Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not

represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be

the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant

sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.

DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and

recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of

information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the

typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,

this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,

the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions

identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms

becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in

macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.

Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter

of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers

analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and

future stance of their economies and, because of model

uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.

Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the

econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing

too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their

evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).

Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets

implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global

requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross

country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A

priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of

the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open

macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by

the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need

modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in

a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many

a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The

large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic

variables suggests the existence of few common sources of

fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which

individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the

world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers

with different sign and intensity or global technological advances

can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor

models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the

dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal

components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious

tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their

propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In

fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly

cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a

variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common

components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and

are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific

factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.

Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the

identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying

a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this

thesis exploit this idea.

The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables

help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of

consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the

economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially

relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the

European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models

can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity

of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the

role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of

prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables

and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term

and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.

However, both the academic literature and the practice of the

leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a

special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and

references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really

provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the

Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the

issue whether money provides useful information about future

inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary

variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a

large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro

Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for

the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few

synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the

large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of

variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results

show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive

performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the

period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.

Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on

the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.

However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors

reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate

benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary

variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample

up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current

forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.

The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone

and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium

explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found

that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly

comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should

allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial

markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and

investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has

strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's

seminal paper while the association between saving and investment

does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium

mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the

correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,

affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global

capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global

interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across

national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical

studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects

of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions

failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show

that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks

may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to

properly isolate components of saving and investment that are

affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor

augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate

idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of

heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,

by applying our methodology, the association between domestic

saving and investment decreases considerably over time,

consistently with the observed increase in international capital

mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation

between saving and investment disappears.

Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This research attempts to evaluate the stability of money demand functions and estimate monetary inflation models in the East African Community (EAC), using quarterly aggregate data that range from 2000Q1 to 2012Q3. We used Johansen co-integration analysis to estimate and analyse the stability of the M3 money demand model for each country member of the EAC. From this estimation, we derived a country-specific measure of money overhang. We compared its forecasting power of future inflation with that of money stock growth, and money stock available in the economy. Regarding country-specific money demand functions, with the exception of Uganda, we identified a reasonable and stable country-specific M3 money demand model. Also, for predicting future inflation, the estimation results showed that M3 money stock growth is more reliable in Burundi and in Kenya, while M3 money overhang is preferable in Rwanda and M3 money stock in Tanzania. As both country-specific and regional (EAC area) information on monetary quantity growth and its impact on price level is important to know in a monetary union, we considered the EAC area as a single market and attempted to estimate the aggregate (EAC area) demand functions for broad money M2 and M3 using Johansen co-integration analysis. The estimated long-run aggregate money demand models M2 and M3 appeared to be stable over the sample period. However, the aggregate M2 and M3 at the EAC level were proven to be weakly exogenous, which should discard them for consideration at the EAC level as the intermediate targets variables in order to achieve the overall objective of price stability in the EAC region. Instead, short-term interest rate should be given a prominent role in monetary policy framework at the EAC level.

The disclosure of information about the policy making process and the release of new databases may add relevant information about the exchange rate to guide the public's expectation, but may also mislead it. Asymmetric information also reinforces the importance of the learning process for policy makers and financial markets. This dissertation focuses on the role of information in the political economics of exchange rates. The two first chapters provide empirical studies of how access to information shapes and constraints the choice of exchange rate policy (official statement and implemented policy). The last chapter considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries as a result of a financial crisis. It focuses on the experience accumulated with past financial crises.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Countries with unemployment insurance (UI) program can effectively conduct a labor market policy and observe the flow of unemployed-employed. But should we just hand UI over to anyone who has no job? Do individual response to the program in terms of their decision to work or to enjoy more leisure unanimously the same across leisure type characteristic individuals? In a heterogeneous constructed labor search market we derive that introduction of the UI program increases the wage gap between the different individuals when the program impacts the productivity of firm positively. In an empirical investigation of the impact of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment using a job search model, we specify a distribution of duration of unemployment that we estimate using maximum likelihood estimation and find that there is in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY 97) there are 3 types of individuals and the type of leisure individuals present an adverse response to the program: An increase in UI for the highest leisure type leads to a longer duration of unemployment. Whereas the lowest values of leisure do not tend to have an extended duration of unemployment from a positive change in UI. Finally, the response for the type 2 individuals is completely ambiguous as it could either see them having a prolonged duration of unemployment or a shortened period with no work. So a selective increase in unemployment insurance to those with a relatively low value of leisure may decrease the equilibrium rate of unemployment. The second part of the dissertation focuses on modeling money demand and shocks in Cote D'Ivoire for the period of 1960-2009. Unlike Drama and Yao (2010) our result suggests M1 is not in a long-run equilibrium with its determinants real income and expected inflation and therefore unstable. However, the broad definition M2 is cointegrated with its long-run determinants and it is therefore the most appropriate definition of money for the Cote D'Ivoire economy. As a consequence M2 can be used as an alternative to the interest rate as a long run monetary policy instrument.

There is no single commonly adapted model that explains the influence that various monetary policy instruments carry for the economy. During 2011-2017, the Swedish inflation rate has remained below the 2 percent target which has led the Riksbank to take measures aimed at stimulating the inflation. As of May 2018, the repo rate has experienced a number of decreases and is now at 􀀀0:50% which represents an unprecedentedly low level. With the inflation rate remaining below the target whilst the housing market has experienced substantial growth and recent decline, the question arises regarding what impact the repo rate exerts on various macroeconomic measures. In this paper, a statistical time series analysis is conducted using a Vector Autoregression model and the impulse responses are studied. A model of 7 economic variables is constructed to specially study the effect of the repo rate on employment and housing prices. Results demonstrate that rational expectations exist in the economy. Furthermore, results show that the repo rate influences factors affected by inflation rapidly, exerting maximum influence during the first year after the shock. On the other hand, real variables based on quantitative measures that are adjusted for inflation experience the greatest influence of the repo rate after a delay of 6 to 7 quarters. Employment experiences the greatest negative response to a repo rate shock after 7 quarters, with a magnitude of 0.317 standard deviations per standard deviation in the repo rate shock. Housing prices experience the greatest negative response to a repo rate shock after 4 quarters, with a magnitude of 0.209 standard deviations per standard deviation in the repo rate shock.
Det finns ingen allmänt vedertagen modell som beskriver olika penningpolitiska instruments påverkan på ekonomin. Under 2011-2017 har Sveriges inflationstakt legat under 2-procentsmålet vilket har fått Riksbanken att vidta åtgärder i syfte att stimulera inflationen. Fram till maj 2018 har upprepade sänkningar av reporäntan genomförts och den ligger i dagsläget på 0:50% vilket är den lägsta nivån någonsin. Då inflationstakten inte nått målet samtidigt som bostadsmarknaden har upplevt kraftig tillväxt och nylig nedgång uppstår frågan gällande vilken effekt som reporäntan utlovar på diverse makroekonomiska mått. I denna rapport genomförs en statistisk tidsserieanalys med en vektorautoregression och impuls-responserna studeras. En modell med 7 ekonomiska variabler skapas för att specifikt studera effekten av reporäntan på sysselsättning och bostadspriser. Resultaten visar att rationella förväntningar finns i ekonomin. Vidare visar resultaten att reporäntan influerar inflationspåverkade variabler omgående, med maximal påverkan inom det första året efter chocken. Å andra sidan påverkas volymbaserade variabler som justeras för inflation maximalt först efter en fördröjning på 6 till 7 kvartal. Sysselsättningen upplever störst negativ påverkan från en reporäntechock efter 7 kvartal motsvarande 0.317 standardavvikelser per standardavvikelse i chocken. Bostadspriser upplever störst negativ påverkan från en reporäntechock efter 4 kvartal motsvarande 0.209 standardavvikelser per standardavvikelse i chocken.

The main aim of this thesis is to discover a suitable instant of time for the Czech Republic to join European Monetary Union. I am analyzing dependence between monetary policies of the Czech National Bank (CNB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) themselves as well as in relation to essential Czech macroeconomic indicators. My observation is focused on interest rate policies represented by operative interest rates, on monetary policies represented by indices of nominal effective exchange rates and on convergence monitoring. The analytical instruments I used in the thesis are correlation analyses, linear trends, the Granger causality test and the Impulse-Reaction test. Besides, my thesis examines fulfillment of the Convergence (Maastricht) criteria in the Czech Republic and other central European countries. This thesis also examines impact of the European monetary policy on some Eurozone member countries.

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Esta tese tem como objetivo principal aproximar a evidencia empirica existente sobre os agregados macroeconomicos com as novas evidencias empiricas baseadas nos micro dados de precos ao consumidor, tendo como base os modelos padroes de rigidez de preco utilizados na literatura de politica monetaria. Para isso, esta tese utiliza a base de dados individuais de precos ao consumidor no Brasil fornecida pela Fundacao Getulio Vargas. Especificamente, esta tese foca em tres temas principais: a existencia de variac˜oes temporararias de precos, a heterogeneidade na rigidez de precos entre firmas de um mesmo setor e o formato das func˜oes hazard. Os resultados mostram que: existe de fato uma correlac˜ao entre as variaveis referentes as mudancas temporararias de precos e os agregados macroeconomicos; a heterogeneidade na rigidez de precos entre firmas de um mesmo setor apresenta efeitos significativos sobre a dinamica dos agregados macroeconomicos; e por fim, o formato mais geral da func˜ao hazard proposta nesta tese possibilita novas dinamicas dos agregados macroeconomicos.
This thesis has as its main goal to approximate the existing empirical evidence on macroeconomic aggregates with the new empirical evidences based on micro data on consumer prices, having as a baseline the standard sticky-price models used in the literature on monetary policy. In order to do that, this thesis makes use of a micro data on individual consumer prices in Brazil published by Getulio Vargas Foundation. Specifically, this thesis focus on three main issues: the existence of temporary price changes, the within-sector heterogeneity in price stickiness and the shape of hazard functions. The results show that: there exist a correlation between variables on temporary price changes and macroeconomic aggregates; the within-sector heterogeneity in price stickiness has significant effects on macroeconomic dynamics; and the more general specification of the shape of the hazard function that is proposed in this thesis leads to new dynamics for the macroeconomic aggregates.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
財務金融學研究所
103
China became the third-largest economy. Their monetary policies attracts worldwide attention. Also, China is one of the most important trading partners of Taiwan. The policies of China will affect Taiwan economy widely. In this article, We used the monetary policy implement report of PBC and the variation of monetary policy instrument to build the monetary policy indicator of PBC by narrative approach. We try to estimate the monetary policy reaction function of PBC from January, 2005 to December, 2014. There are symmetric model and asymmetric model included in this article. In symmetric model, we estimated by Logit Model, Probit Model, and Ordered Probit Model. In addition, in asymmetric model, we used inflation rate as a threshold variable, and try to estimate it by rolling chow test. Besides, we attempt to find the housing price effect on monetary policy reaction function. The practical result shows that the PBC followed the countercyclical policy in the symmetric model. Also, in asymmetric model, there is an asymmetry when we used the inflation rate as a threshold variable.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
財務金融學研究所
97
Studying the monetary policy of central bank is always the issue which academia and the finance community concentrate on. China economy has been highly developed in the recent years. In addition, Taiwan and China start to communicate to each other closely in the recent years. China will become the most important economy which effects Taiwan in the world in the future. In this article the monetary policy implementing report of PBC and the change of each monetary instrument were used to build the monetary policy indicator of PBC. In addition, the monetary policy reaction function of PBC was estimated from January, 2001 to December, 2008. There are symmetric model and asymmetric model in this article. There are symmetric model and asymmetric model in this article. In symmetric model the Logit, Probit and Ordered Probit model of monetary policy reaction function were estimated by narrative approach. On the other hand, the inflation rate and the return rate of Shanghai Composite were used as threshold variables and the threshold value was estimated in Rolling Chow Test method in asymmetric model. The practical result shows that PBC used the countercyclical policy in the symmetric model. On the other hand, there is significant asymmetrical In the asymmetric model when inflation rate is taken as threshold variable. However, it shows opposed situation to the theory when the return rate of Shanghai Composite is taken as threshold variable.

Based on Ordered-Probit models, I estimate the monetary policy reaction function of the European Central Bank between 2001 and 2019. Results show that the ECB does display a forward-looking behaviour. Inflation and output growth projections play a significant role in their monetary policy decisions. Moreover, yield spreads across euro area countries do not seem to be significant on their decision. Therefore, the possibility of a secondary mandate related to financial markets’ stability is not confirmed, according to my results. Lastly, marginal effects on the ordered probit regressions, show that forecasts on output growth have the largest weight on monetary policy decisions.

The thesis provides a comparative estimation of the electoral cycles' influence on the monetary policies among a group of developed and developing countries. We use a non-linear central bank's reaction function which captures the regime switching behavior of the monetary authority depending on the proximity of elections. Moreover, we compare the reaction function with partial adjustment, which controls for policy inertia, with a non-inertial policy rule with serially correlated errors which takes into account other shocks determining the central bank to deviate from its policy rule. The estimation was performed via OLS, 2SLS and 3SLS, the preference being given to the last one due to correction of endogeneity problem and efficiency gains. Robust evidence about election induced monetary policies was found in 2 out of 10 developed economies and 4 out of 10 developing economies. In these countries, the central banks tend to be less inflation averse and/or less counter-cyclical (or even pro- cyclical) during electoral periods in comparison with normal times. Additionally, we find that the legislative framework, in these countries, incorporates significant deviations from the best practices of central bank independence. Finally, following the dynamic inconsistency problem, we document a strong...

The contribution of this thesis is to build a small macro-econometric model of the Namibian economy, which demonstrates that there is significant statistical support for the hypothesis that there is a contemporaneous relationship between real wage, productivity, unemployment and interest rates in Namibia. This phenomenon has not yet been exploited using macro-econometric modelling, and thus, represents a significant contribution to modelling literature in Namibia. The determination of the sources of unemployment also receives special attention given that high unemployment is a chronic problem in Namibia. All models specified and estimated in the study use the SVAR methodology for the period 1980 to 2013. The study develops a small macro-econometric model using three modular experiments, which include, a basic model, models that separately append demand and exchange rate channels variables to the basic model, and the specification of a small macro-econometric model. The ultimate aim is to find out if monetary policy plays a role in influencing labour market and nominal variables. The hypothesis that the basic real wage, productivity, unemployment rate and interest rate system can be estimated simultaneously is validated. Further, demand and exchange rate channels variables are found to have important additional information, which explains the monetary transmission process, and that shocks to labour market variables affect monetary policy in Namibia. The results also show that the demand channel (import prices and bank credit to the private sector) and the exchange rate channel (nominal exchange rate) variables have important additional information, which affects monetary transmission process in Namibia, which justifies their inclusion in the small macro-econometric model. In addition, shocks to the import price and exchange rate in the macro-econometric model significantly affect labour market variables. However, shocks to bank credit only partially perform as expected, implying that its results need to be considered cautiously. The study further finds that tight monetary policy shocks significantly affect real and nominal variables in Namibia. The results also show that shocks to all variables in the unemployment model significantly affect unemployment, suggesting that the hysteresis assumption is corroborated. This implies that long run aggregate demand is non-neutral in Namibia.
Economics
D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

碩士
國立交通大學
財務金融研究所
101
This paper explores the effectiveness of changes in federal fund target rate on several investor sentiment related variable in different market regimes. Our empirical results show that in full data period the unexpected federal fund target rate changes have significant effect on stock returns, investor sentiment. Most of their effects are owing to the level surprises, while timing surprises have virtually no influence on stock, bond and credit market. In the more recent period from 2005 to 2012, our results reveal that the monetary policy effect regarding target rate has disappeared for both stock returns and investor sentiments, but the level surprises still have impact on both CDS and bond indices.

碩士
國立交通大學
財務金融研究所
103
At the end of 2008, the federal funds target rate, an instrument of the Federal Reserve’s traditional policy, was at its lower bound of zero. To further deal with the deteriorating economic situation, the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing (QE), which is also known as large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). In this paper we investigate the effect of the Federal Reserve’s new monetary policy tool, quantitative easing (QE1 in 2008/11-2009/3, QE2 in 2010/11-2011/6, and QE3 in 2012/9-2014/12) on investor sentiment and different markets. We use an event-study method to observe the impact of QE on investor sentiments and various markets, such as the stock market, bond market, credit market, Treasury yields, and MBS yields. Our empirical results show that the Fed’s announcement of upcoming QE activity does affect these markets. Following the gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, the Fed reduced QE at a slow and stable pace but the monetary policy of quantitative easing was still remained, and we further find that reducing asset purchases has no significantly negative impact on markets because investors have already expected this action of the Fed.

碩士
國立中山大學
財務管理學系研究所
103
By using threshold model, we examine the non-linear effect of web search activities on assets including S&;P 500, bond, and gold during these three periods, raising interest rate period, cutting interest rate period and QE policies period. According to Kontonikas et al. (2013), investor will adjust their expectation of future economy when monetary policy change, so we think that investors could create either a positive or negative price pressure, depending on the investor concern with future economic conditions. The result indicated that when the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rate, there didn’t exist any relationship between web search activity and S&;P 500 index. After interest rate climbed climb above a certain threshold, the relationship between web search activity and S&;P 500 index returns would be negative. During the cutting interest rate period, web search activities didn’t have significantly impact on S&;P 500 index. However, after interest rate climbed above a certain threshold, we can find that investors increased their demand for safe-haven assets. When Federal Reserve began to carry out QE policies, web search activities can indeed boost S&;P 500 return, but the relationship will be weaker after interest rate climbed climb above a certain threshold. On the other hand, investor will expect that the inflation would be higher due to consequence of QE policies. Therefore, they will invest into gold market to resist higher inflation. This study finds that there exists non-linear effect between web search activities and assets including S&;P 500 index, bond, and gold. It can provide investment strategies for stock investors.

The borderless and decentralised nature of Bitcoin, allied with its controversial increasing visibility and recognition in the financial markets, is putting pressure on policymakers to understand the extent to which Bitcoin behaves as the remaining assets. This is the first paper to employ high-frequency Bitcoin data to analyse its sensitivity to monetary policy decisions. The present analysis of its volatility and trading activity patterns reveal that Bitcoin does not significantly react to announcements on monetary decisions released by FED, ECB and BOE1, even when a change in policy occurs. These results suggest Bitcoin’s independence of centralised monetary authorities, which carries implications for investors, as they can benefit from diversification by investing in Bitcoin as an alternative asset class. These results are also valid for different exchanges and time periods, which reveals a certain level of market efficiency.

碩士
國立臺灣大學
經濟學研究所
107
In this paper, we examine which macroeconomic variables would Central Bank of Republic of China (henceforth: Taiwan Central Bank, TCB) take into consideration when it intervenes TWD exchange rate in the foreign exchange market. In addition, we investigate what kind of economic factors and information are essential and salient for TCB as reference while forming exchange rate policies. Moreover, whether these policies varied with different TCB governors is also included in the study. The empirical results show that, during the time from May, 1989 to February, 2018, the trend of TWD exchange rate reflected the behavior of TCB intervention, export, domestic interest rate and federal funds rate. However, we find no evidence that TCB would take macroeconomic variables into account when tuning TWD exchange rate. From March, 1998 to February, 2018, TCB intervened in the foreign exchange market according to the information provided by TWD exchange rate, real effective exchange rate, export price index and domestic interest rate. On the other hand, most of the influence derived from economic situation alteration was neutralized by TCB intervention. During the period of June, 1989 to May, 1994, economic bubbles emerged and there was surplus on the financial market after the fast economic growth. In company with the pressure of TWD appreciation owing to continuous trade surplus with the U.S.. TCB adopted the policy that adjusted TWD exchange rate “gradually and moderately”, and the intervention did not significantly depend on the fluctuation of macroeconomic fundamentals.

This dissertation comprises three essays that examine critical aspects of fiscal policy and explores important determinants of tax compliance in a developing country context. The first essay examines the fiscal response to changes in debt-to-GDP for a panel of developing countries. Our empirical strategy adopts a dynamic difference generalized methods of moments (DGMM) model with forward orthogonal deviation. We find a positive and significant response for the primary balance and ‘fiscal effort’ to changes in debt-to-GDP. For the fiscal components, we find a positive relationship between debt-to-GDP and general and tax revenues, and a negative relationship with primary spending. We also find evidence of nonlinearities, with countries making larger increases in the primary balance and fiscal effort at higher levels of debt, largely driven by increases in revenues. Higher income countries demonstrate a greater propensity to adjust along the revenue margins, compared to lower income countries. This might be indicative of systemic revenue mobilization challenges facing the latter. The second essay examines the effect of the provision of taxpayer services on filing and payment of the corporate income tax (CIT) and general consumption tax (GCT) for large taxpayers in Jamaica. We use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) that exploits an exogenous jump in the intensity of taxpayer service delivery, which occurs when a taxpayer reaches gross receipts of J$500 million (US$5.7 million) and is selected into the large taxpayer office (LTO). The results indicate null effects for the CIT but positive filing and payment compliance effects for the GCT. The contrasting results for the CIT and GCT may be due to the relatively weaker legal enforcement framework of the former. The results provide suggestive evidence of a complementarity between the strength of the legal enforcement framework of the taxing regime and the provision of taxpayer services. In the third essay we implement public goods messaging experiments to examine the effects on personal income tax (PIT) compliance among self-employed individuals in Jamaica. In the first sub-experiment we examine the effect of the standard public goods message on payment of quarterly PIT obligations. In the second sub-experiment we focus on payment of PIT arrears and expand the message context to include a variant of the standard public goods message – which provides additional information on actual spending on key public goods and services. The compliance outcomes in sub-experiment two relate to established PIT delinquencies, compared to sub-experiment one where there is no legal obligation to comply. We find that the standard public goods message had no effect on compliance with quarterly PIT payments in sub-experiment one. However results from sub-experiment two indicate positive compliance effects from the standard and augmented public goods messages on the probability of making a payment and the amount of PIT arrears paid after nineteen weeks. Point estimates from the standard and augmented public goods messages are not statistically different for any of the outcomes examined; suggesting that additional information on public spending allocations does not matter.

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on how monetary policy decisions taken by the European Central Bank (ECB), the most important decision-maker of economic policy in the Euro Zone, affect the main macroeconomic variables in Portugal. A set of 5 variables was considered to be representative of the economic reality of the country and, because of this, are able to affect, directly or indirectly, all economic agents. The variables are: short-term interest rates, equity prices, consumer price index, real gross domestic product and residential property prices. Such monetary policy decisions are referred, especially, to changes in ECB reference rate (refi rate), its most important instrument when trying to cope with its main objective – guarantee financial stability. To do such work, is important to check whether the Portuguese financial system is an open system. To do that, its main features were analyzed, because this has a great influence on the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism described above. Through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model, we estimated the interdependence between the different variables considered. After that, and by introducing a shock in short-term interest rate, we calculated an impulse response function in order to check the spread of such a shock in the remaining variables.
O objectivo desta dissertação é analisar a forma como as decisões de política monetária tomadas pelo Banco Central Europeu (BCE), principal agente de decisão de política monetária em toda a Zona Euro, afectam as principais variáveis macroeconómicas em Portugal. Escolheu-se um leque de 5 variáveis que se consideram ser representativas da realidade económica do país, e que afectam por isso, directamente ou indirectamente, todos os agentes económicos: taxas de juro de curto prazo, preço das acções, a inflação, o Produto Interno Bruto e o Preço do Imobiliário. Tais decisões de política monetária traduzem-se, sobretudo, em alterações na taxa de juro de referência do BCE (refi rate), seu principal instrumento no cumprimento da garantia de estabilidade de preços. Para tal, considerou-se pertinente verificar o grau de abertura do sistema financeiro português através da análise das suas principais características, pois dessa maior ou menor abertura depende a eficácia do mecanismo de transmissão acima descrito. Através de um modelo Vector Autoregressivo (VAR), estimou-se a interdependência entre as diferentes variáveis em análise, após o que, através da introdução de um choque nas taxas de juro de curto prazo, se calculou a função resposta a impulsos de modo a verificar a propagação de tal choque nas restantes variáveis.

Doutoramento em Economia
Esta tese centra-se na evolução macroeconómica de Portugal durante o período 2000-2014. A economia portuguesa tem sido um caso de estudo interessante na literatura económica devida a características específicas após a introdução do euro: elevados desequilíbrios externos, elevada dívida pública, baixo crescimento económico e da produtividade, e o programa de ajustamento económico e financeiro (2011-2014). A função produção do setor privado apresentou rendimentos decrescentes à escala, pelo que se os fatores de produção fossem aumentados na mesma proporção, o crescimento do valor acrescentado bruto seria menos que proporcional. Adicionalmente, as variáveis orçamentais tiveram impacto no emprego e no investimento do sector privado. Analisaram-se os canais através dos quais a dívida externa bruta pode afetar o crescimento económico: procura, oferta e contas externas. A tese identifica e quantifica as variáveis dependentes afetadas pela dívida externa dos setores público e privado. Analisaram-se os canais através dos quais a dívida externa bruta pode afetar o crescimento económico: procura, oferta e contas externas. A tese identifica e quantifica as varáveis dependentes afetadas pela dívida externa dos setores público e privado. O investimento em volume apresentou o conteúdo importado mais elevado, seguido das exportações, consumo privado e consumo público. O peso das exportações nominais portuguesas no total da área euro recuperou a partir de 2011. Estimaram-se os passivos da posição de investimento internacional, decompondo o financiamento externo. A política monetária única afetou algumas variáveis que representam o financiamento de cada setor institucional da econoima portuguesa. O período do programa de ajustamento económico e financeiro influenciou todos os setores institicionais, e a integração financeira na área do euro afetou o financiamento da economia. Em conclusão, nesta tese foram estimados indicadores económicos de vários domínios da economia portuguesa, os quais foram determinados por fatores externos e internos.
This thesis focuses of the macroeconomics developments in Portugal during the period 2000-2014. The Portuguese economy has been considered an interesting case study in economic literature due to specific features that emerged after the introduction of the euro: high external imbalances, high public debt, low economic and productivity growth, and the economic and financial adjustment programme (2011-2014). The production function of the private sector presented decreasing returns to scale. Consequently, if the production factors were increased by same proportion, the gross value added would increase in a less than proportional manner. Additionally, fiscal variables affected employment and investment in the private sector. We assessed the channels through which the gross external debt may affect economic growth: demand, supply and external accounts. This study identified and quantified the dependent variables affected by the external debt of the public and private sectors. Investment in volume presented the highest import content, followed by exports, private consumption and public consumption. The share in euro exports of the Portuguese nominal exports recovered after 2011. We estimated the liabilities related to the international investment position, decomposing the external funding. The single monetary policy affected some variables that are proxies for the funding of each institutional sector of the Portuguese economy. The period of the economic and financial adjustment programme influenced all institutional sectors, and financial integration in the euro area had an effect on the funding of the economy. In conclusion, this thesis estimated some economic indicators in Portugal related to a wide range of topics, which were determined by external and domestic factors.
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