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Journal articles on the topic 'Mortality forecast'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 13 February 2022

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1

Shang, Han Lin, and Steven Haberman. "FORECASTING MULTIPLE FUNCTIONAL TIME SERIES IN A GROUP STRUCTURE: AN APPLICATION TO MORTALITY." ASTIN Bulletin 50, no. 2 (2020): 357–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2020.3.

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AbstractWhen modelling subnational mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among subpopulations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modelling; (2) how to reconcile subnational mortality forecasts so that they aggregate adequately across various levels of a group structure; (3) among the forecast reconciliation methods, how to combine their forecasts to achieve improved forecast accuracy. To address these issues, we introduce an extension of grouped univariate functional time-series method. We first

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Šiškina, Natalja, and Jonas Šiaulys. "ARMA Models for Mortality Forecast." Lietuvos statistikos darbai 55, no. 1 (2016): 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2016.13865.

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In the last several decades, many countries have been paying a lot of attention to mortality forecastingbecause of high longevity risk. The purpose of this paper is to analyze mortality characteristics of Baltic countries andmake predictions using ARMA models. Research shoved that mortality rate distribution is almost the same in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia and all of them represent longevity trends. It means that men and women, children and adults have thesame mortality structure in all Baltic countries and live longer than before.

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Šimpach, Ondřej, and Marie Šimpachová Pechrová. "Implications of the SARS-Cov-2 Pandemic for Mortality Forecasting: Case Study for the Czech Republic and Spain." Engineering Proceedings 5, no. 1 (2021): 58. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/engproc2021005058.

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The current pandemic situation of SARS-Cov-2 is negatively influencing people worldwide, and leading to high mortality and excess mortality, due to more reasons than only the disease itself. Thus, forecasting of the mortality rates and consequent population projections would have been complicated since 2020. Paper models mortality in the Czech Republic and Spain and assesses the possible impact of the COVID-19 on the forecasts. We use a Lee–Carter model and apply it to data from 1981 to 2019 (forecast A) and 1981 to 2020 (forecast B). Our results show differences in forecasts up to 2030 by mea

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Inada, Haruhiko, Qingfeng Li, Abdulgafoor Bachani, and Adnan A. Hyder. "Forecasting global road traffic injury mortality for 2030." Injury Prevention 26, no. 4 (2019): 339–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043336.

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ObjectiveTo forecast the number and rate of deaths from road traffic injuries (RTI) in the world in 2030.MethodsThis study was a secondary analysis of annual country-level data of RTI mortality rates for 1990–2017 in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study, population projection for 2030, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for 1990–2030 and average years of schooling among people aged 15 years+ for 1990–2030. We developed up to 6884 combinations of forecasting models for each subgroup stratified by country, sex and mode of transport using linear and squared year, GDP per capita and

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Bozikas, Apostolos, and Georgios Pitselis. "Credible Regression Approaches to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data." Risks 7, no. 1 (2019): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks7010027.

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In this paper, we propose a credible regression approach with random coefficients to model and forecast the mortality dynamics of a given population with limited data. Age-specific mortality rates are modelled and extrapolation methods are utilized to estimate future mortality rates. The results on Greek mortality data indicate that credibility regression contributed to more accurate forecasts than those produced from the Lee–Carter and Cairns–Blake–Dowd models. An application on pricing insurance-related products is also provided.

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Khan, Md Hasinur Rahaman, Sadia Afrin, and Mohammad Shahed Masud. "Mortality Forecasting Using Lee Carter Model Implemented to French Mortality Data." Dhaka University Journal of Science 64, no. 2 (2016): 99–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/dujs.v64i2.54488.

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For the reason of simplicity the Lee and Carter (LC) method is getting widely adopted for long-run forecasts of age specific mortality rates. In this paper the LC model is applied to French mortality data to demonstrate the mortality results. The age-specific death rates are used for the period 1816 to 2006. The index of the level of mortality, and the shape and sensitivity coefficients for each age are obtained through the LC method. The autoregressive moving average and the singular value decomposition models are used to forecast the general index for a long period of time that goes from 200

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Hainaut, Donatien. "A NEURAL-NETWORK ANALYZER FOR MORTALITY FORECAST." ASTIN Bulletin 48, no. 02 (2018): 481–508. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2017.45.

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AbstractThis article proposes a neural-network approach to predict and simulate human mortality rates. This semi-parametric model is capable to detect and duplicate non-linearities observed in the evolution of log-forces of mortality. The method proceeds in two steps. During the first stage, a neural-network-based generalization of the principal component analysis summarizes the information carried by the surface of log-mortality rates in a small number of latent factors. In the second step, these latent factors are forecast with an econometric model. The term structure of log-forces of mortal

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Baran, S., J. Gáll, M. Ispány, and G. Pap. "Forecasting Hungarian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter method." Acta Oeconomica 57, no. 1 (2007): 21–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.57.2007.1.3.

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A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003. The model fitted to the data of the period 1949–2003 forecasts increasing mortality rates for men between ages 45 and 55, pointing out that the Lee-Carter method is hardly applicable for countries where mortality rates exhibit trends as peculiar as in Hungary. However, models

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Shaki, Yair Y. "Quasi-Simpson paradox in estimating the expected mortality rate from the SARS-CoV-2." Science Progress 104, no. 2 (2021): 003685042110096. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00368504211009673.

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On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared SARS-CoV-2 a global pandemic, based on a high infection rate and a high case fatality rate (CFR). The combination of these two points led WHO to forecast a high expected mortality rate of approximately 2% of the population. The phenomenon of Simpson’s paradox teaches us that we should be careful when we combine two variables together. Indeed, despite the high mortality rate in several places, this forecast seems to have collapsed. We believe one of the reasons for the erroneous forecasts is that combining the above points ignore

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Mohd Nor, Siti Rohani, Fadhilah Yusof, and Siti Mariam Norrulashikin. "Coherent Mortality Model in A State-Space Approach." Sains Malaysiana 50, no. 4 (2021): 1101–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5004-20.

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Mortality improvements that have recently become apparent in most developing countries have significantly shaped queries on forecast divergent between populations in recent years. Therefore, to ensure a more coherent way of forecasting, previous researchers have proposed multi-population mortality model in the form of independent estimation procedures. However, similar to single-population mortality model, such independent approaches might lead to inaccurate prediction interval. As a result of this inaccurate mortality forecasts, the life expectancies and the life annuities that the mortality

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et al., Hamid. "A new approach to forecast Malaysian mortality rates." International Journal of ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES 6, no. 10 (2019): 53–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.21833/ijaas.2019.10.010.

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Li, Han, and Qihe Tang. "ANALYZING MORTALITY BOND INDEXES VIA HIERARCHICAL FORECAST RECONCILIATION." ASTIN Bulletin 49, no. 3 (2019): 823–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2019.19.

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AbstractIn recent decades, there has been significant growth in the capital market for mortality- and longevity-linked bonds. Therefore, modeling and forecasting the mortality indexes underlying these bonds have crucial implications for risk management in life insurance companies. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical reconciliation approach to constructing probabilistic forecasts for mortality bond indexes. We apply this approach to analyzing the Swiss Re Kortis bond, which is the first “longevity trend bond” introduced in the market. We express the longevity divergence index associated wi

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Ignatavičiūtė, Eglė, Rasa Mikalauskaitė-Arminienė, and Jonas Šiaulys. "Lee–Carter Mortality Forecasting." Lietuvos statistikos darbai 51, no. 1 (2012): 22–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2012.13903.

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In this paper, we focus on Lee–Carter mortality forecasting. Model residuals and future mortality trendsare explored. Predictions of the force of mortality for France, Belarus and Lithuania are provided and compared. Severalmodifications of the model are applied to Lithuanian mortality data in order to obtain the most precise forecast.

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Namahoro, Jean Pierre, and Adrien Mugabushaka. "Forecasting Maternal Complications Based on the Impact of Gross National Income Using Various Models for Rwanda." Journal of Environmental and Public Health 2020 (August 19, 2020): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/7692428.

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Introduction. Preferably maternal mortalities are predominant in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In some African countries, including Rwanda, programs related to health-care delivery to reduce significantly severe complications including mortalities are established. Unfortunately, historical and forecasted maternal mortality reduction and the influence of gross national income (GNI) were not accessed. This study is aimed to forecast the three years of maternal mortalities (MMs) based on the influence of gross national income (GNI) in Rwanda. Methods. The period involved is from Janua

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15

Shang, Han Lin, and Steven Haberman. "Retiree Mortality Forecasting: A Partial Age-Range or a Full Age-Range Model?" Risks 8, no. 3 (2020): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks8030069.

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An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can take place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to retiree ages and then produce mortality forecasts based on a partial age-range model. On the other hand, with all available data, we can first apply a full age-range model to produce forecasts and then truncate the mortality forecasts to retiree ages. We investigate the difference in modeling the logarithmic transformation of the central mortality rates between a part

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Chuliá, Helena, Montserrat Guillén, and Jorge M. Uribe. "MODELING LONGEVITY RISK WITH GENERALIZED DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS AND VINE-COPULAE." ASTIN Bulletin 46, no. 1 (2015): 165–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2015.21.

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AbstractWe present a methodology to forecast mortality rates and estimate longevity and mortality risks. The methodology uses generalized dynamic factor models fitted to the differences in the log-mortality rates. We compare their prediction performance with that of models previously described in the literature, including the traditional static factor model fitted to log-mortality rates. We also construct risk measures using vine-copula simulations, which take into account the dependence between the idiosyncratic components of the mortality rates. The methodology is applied to forecast mortali

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Isakson, Alex, Simone Krummaker, María Dolores Martínez-Miranda, and Ben Rickayzen. "Calendar Effect and In-Sample Forecasting Applied to Mesothelioma Mortality Data." Mathematics 9, no. 18 (2021): 2260. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9182260.

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In this paper, we apply and further illustrate a recently developed extended continuous chain ladder model to forecast mesothelioma deaths. Making such a forecast has always been a challenge for insurance companies as exposure is difficult or impossible to measure, and the latency of the disease usually lasts several decades. While we compare three approaches to this problem, we show that the extended continuous chain ladder model is a promising benchmark candidate for asbestosis mortality forecasting due to its flexible and simple forecasting strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the mode

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18

Andreeski, Cvetko. "Optimal Values for Calculation of Premium in Life Insurance." International Journal of Energy Optimization and Engineering 2, no. 3 (2013): 68–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijeoe.2013070105.

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Life insurance is very challenging sector in developing countries. Life insurance makes contribute at the investments in every country, so the more developed life insurance, more investments one should expect. One of the main aspects in calculation of risk in life insurance is using updated tables of mortality and forecast of the future values of mortality. There are many functions and models for mortality forecast calculation. Lee-Carter and Azbel Model for mortality trend calculation are used in this paper. In order to evaluate the results, data sets with the mortality in the Republic of Mac

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Li, Hong, and Yanlin Shi. "Mortality Forecasting with an Age-Coherent Sparse VAR Model." Risks 9, no. 2 (2021): 35. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9020035.

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This paper proposes an age-coherent sparse Vector Autoregression mortality model, which combines the appealing features of existing VAR-based mortality models, to forecast future mortality rates. In particular, the proposed model utilizes a data-driven method to determine the autoregressive coefficient matrix, and then employs a rotation algorithm in the projection phase to generate age-coherent mortality forecasts. In the estimation phase, the age-specific mortality improvement rates are fitted to a VAR model with dimension reduction algorithms such as the elastic net. In the projection phase

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Tariq, Amna, Juan M. Banda, Pavel Skums, et al. "Transmission dynamics and forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, March-December 2020." PLOS ONE 16, no. 7 (2021): e0254826. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0254826.

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Mexico has experienced one of the highest COVID-19 mortality rates in the world. A delayed implementation of social distancing interventions in late March 2020 and a phased reopening of the country in June 2020 has facilitated sustained disease transmission in the region. In this study we systematically generate and compare 30-day ahead forecasts using previously validated growth models based on mortality trends from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation for Mexico and Mexico City in near real-time. Moreover, we estimate reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-2 based on the methods that r

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Ivanova, A. E. "MORTALITY FORECAST IN RUSSIA BASED ON MONITORING MAJOR SOCIAL DETERMINANTS." Social Aspects of Population Health 66, no. 6 (2020): 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.21045/2071-5021-2020-66-6-6.

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The prospect for increasing life expectancy in Russia is far from being disputed by experts, however the growth rate, its sustainability and achievability of the target indicators trigger extensive discussion in the scientific community. The purpose of the study is to develop a Russian mortality forecast until 2050 based on the hypotheses about effective monitoring over its major social determinants. Material and methods. Based on the material analysis of the Comprehensive monitoring over living conditions of the population, the author has assessed relevance of the National project measures in

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Li, Han, Hong Li, Yang Lu, and Anastasios Panagiotelis. "A forecast reconciliation approach to cause-of-death mortality modeling." Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 86 (May 2019): 122–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2019.02.011.

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Basellini, Ugofilippo, Søren Kjærgaard, and Carlo Giovanni Camarda. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality." Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 91 (March 2020): 129–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.01.007.

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Oddone, Enrico, Jordy Bollon, Consuelo Rubina Nava, et al. "Forecast of Malignant Peritoneal Mesothelioma Mortality in Italy up to 2040." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 1 (2020): 160. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18010160.

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Despite their differences, pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma are frequently lumped together to describe epidemic curves and to forecast future mesothelioma trends. This study aims to describe the malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) epidemic in Italy (1996–2016) and to forecast future trends up to 2040 in order to contribute to the assessment of MPeM future burden. All MPeM deaths in Italy from 1996–2016 were collected (as provided by the Italian National Statistical Institute (ISTAT)) in order to estimate MPeM mortality rates for each 3-year period from 1996 to 2016. Poisson age-period-

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Tóth, Csaba G. "Multi-population models to handle mortality crises in forecasting mortality: A case study from Hungary." Society and Economy 43, no. 2 (2021): 128–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/204.2021.00007.

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AbstractCentral and Eastern European countries faced a serious mortality crisis in the second part of the 20th century, resulting in many years of decreasing life expectancy. In the last few decades, however, this was followed by a period in which mortality improved. This dichotomy of past trends makes it difficult to forecast mortality by way of stochastic models that incorporate these countries’ long-term historical data. The product–ratio model (Hyndman et al. 2013) is a model of the coherent type, which relies more closely on subpopulations with common socioeconomic backgrounds and perspec

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Morabito, Marco, Alessandro Messeri, Pascal Noti, et al. "An Occupational Heat–Health Warning System for Europe: The HEAT-SHIELD Platform." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 16 (2019): 2890. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162890.

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Existing heat–health warning systems focus on warning vulnerable groups in order to reduce mortality. However, human health and performance are affected at much lower environmental heat strain levels than those directly associated with higher mortality. Moreover, workers are at elevated health risks when exposed to prolonged heat. This study describes the multilingual “HEAT-SHIELD occupational warning system” platform (https://heatshield.zonalab.it/) operating for Europe and developed within the framework of the HEAT-SHIELD project. This system is based on probabilistic medium-range forecasts

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Li, Hong, Yang Lu, and Pintao Lyu. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting for Less Developed Countries." Risks 9, no. 9 (2021): 151. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9090151.

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This paper proposes a coherent multi-population approach to mortality forecasting for less developed countries. The majority of these countries have witnessed faster mortality declines among the young and the working age populations during the past few decades, whereas in the more developed countries, the contemporary mortality declines have been more substantial among the elders. Along with the socioeconomic developments, the mortality patterns of the less developed countries may become closer to those of the more developed countries. As a consequence, forecasting the long-term mortality of a

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Pokhrel, Keshav P., and Chris P. Tsokos. "Forecasting Age-Specific Brain Cancer Mortality Rates Using Functional Data Analysis Models." Advances in Epidemiology 2015 (February 9, 2015): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/721592.

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Incidence and mortality rates are considered as a guideline for planning public health strategies and allocating resources. We apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific brain cancer mortality trend and forecast entire age-specific functions using exponential smoothing state-space models. The age-specific mortality curves are decomposed using principal component analysis and fit functional time series model with basis functions. Nonparametric smoothing methods are used to mitigate the existing randomness in the observed data. We use functional time series model on age-spec

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Alijean, Marie Angèle Cathleen, and Jason Narsoo. "Evaluation of the Kou-Modified Lee-Carter Model in Mortality Forecasting: Evidence from French Male Mortality Data." Risks 6, no. 4 (2018): 123. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks6040123.

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Mortality forecasting has always been a target of study by academics and practitioners. Since the introduction and rising significance of securitization of risk in mortality and longevity, more in-depth studies regarding mortality have been carried out to enable the fair pricing of such derivatives. In this article, a comparative analysis is performed on the mortality forecasting accuracy of four mortality models. The methodology employs the Age-Period-Cohort model, the Cairns-Blake-Dowd model, the classical Lee-Carter model and the Kou-Modified Lee-Carter model. The Kou-Modified Lee-Carter mo

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Silva, Eliud, and Corey Sparks. "Hierarchical forecasts of Diabetes mortality in Mexico by marginalization and sex to establish resource allocation." econoquantum 18, no. 2 (2021): 82–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.18381/eq.v18i2.7225.

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Objective: The mexican population has experimented an astounding rise in type II Diabetes mortality as well as a growing trend for the economic burden in the recent years. The paper’s purpose is to propose an approach to establish a distribution of resource allocation objectively to face the future economic burden. Methodology: Hierarchical forecasts of Diabetes mortality to 2030 by sub-domains of the population are estimated based on marginalization and sex. Results: The forecasts confirm that differences related to sub-domains will be significant. In fact, the rates will increase most notabl

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Kobe, Adrian R., Alexander Meyer, Hassan Elmubarak, et al. "Frailty Assessed by the Forecast is a Valid Tool to Predict Short-Term Outcome after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement." Innovations: Technology and Techniques in Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery 11, no. 6 (2016): 407–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/imi.0000000000000321.

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Objective The term frailty is frequently used during decision-making in transcatheter heart valve procedures. Nevertheless, frailty is still measured by eyeballing rather than by using standardized frailty assessments. In a previous study, we developed a frailty score in a cardiac surgical patient population including patients, who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Here, we present the results from the subsequent validation study focusing on the TAVR cohort. Methods One hundred thirty patients underwent TAVR. Frailty assessment using the FORECAST (Frailty predicts death

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Grigorieva, Elena A. "HUMAN HEALTH IN EXTREME TEMPERATURES: FORECAST AND RESULTS OF THE ASSESSMENT." Hygiene and sanitation 98, no. 11 (2019): 1279–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2019-98-11-1279-1284.

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AnnotaIntroduction. To prevent climate-dependent diseases, it is important to identify relationships in the system “Climate and weather - human vital activity”, which is especially important in present conditions of significant climate change. The purpose of the work is to probate the methodology of forecasting the adverse impact of extremely hot weather on human health in the South of the Russian Far East. Material and Methods. Analysis of the synoptic situations was made on the basis of meteorological data for one observation time to the 34 weather stations in the South of the Russian Far Ea

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Booth, H., and L. Tickle. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods." Annals of Actuarial Science 3, no. 1-2 (2008): 3–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1748499500000440.

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ABSTRACTContinuing increases in life expectancy beyond previously-held limits have brought to the fore the critical importance of mortality forecasting. Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Expectation is not generally a good basis for mortality forecasting, as it is subjective; expert expectations are invariably conservative. Explanation is restricted to certain causes of death with known determinants. Decomposition by cause of death poses problems associated with the lack of indepen

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Djeundje, V. A. B., and I. D. Currie. "Smoothing dispersed counts with applications to mortality data." Annals of Actuarial Science 5, no. 1 (2011): 33–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1748499510000047.

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AbstractMortality data are often classified by age at death and year of death. This classification results in a heterogeneous risk set and this can cause problems for the estimation and forecasting of mortality. In the modelling of such data, we replace the classical assumption that the numbers of claims follow the Poisson distribution with the weaker assumption that the numbers of claims have a variance proportional to the mean. The constant of proportionality is known as the dispersion parameter and it enables us to allow for heterogeneity; in the case of insurance data the dispersion parame

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Wan Husin, Wan Zakiyatussariroh, and Nazatul Shahreen Zainal Abidin. "Point forecasts of mortality rates in Malaysia: a comparison of principal component methods." Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 19, no. 3 (2020): 1661. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v19.i3.pp1661-1669.

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<span>The problem of forecasting mortality has been widely discussed and is being considered as an important issue among actuaries and demographers. Using age and sex-specific mortality data in Malaysia, we compare and evaluate the point forecast accuracy of six principal component methods. These six methods are the Lee-Carter (LC) method, the unadjusted LC method (LCnone), the Lee-Miller (LM) variant, the Booth-Mandonald-Smith variant (BMS) and the two versions of the Hyndman-Ullah (HU). The overall performance of all methods was evaluated using out-sample forecasts based on the six err

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Algranti, Eduardo, Cézar Akiyoshi Saito, Ana Paula Scalia Carneiro, Bruno Moreira, Elizabete Medina Coeli Mendonça, and Marco Antonio Bussacos. "The next mesothelioma wave: Mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil." Cancer Epidemiology 39, no. 5 (2015): 687–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2015.08.007.

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Burova, O. B. "ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENT AND FORECAST DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL RURAL KHERSON REGION." Economic innovations 19, no. 2(64) (2017): 47–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.31520/ei.2017.19.2(64).47-53.

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The current state of development of rural areas, in particular, demographic potential of the region, is analyzed. The results of our studies indicate that the processes of democrats become irreversible, reduce the life expectancy of the peasants, is rapidly aging, and intensify migration. Despite some positive developments, the birth and death rate in Ukraine remains difficult and unfavorable for the future development of the state. The processes of destruction of the settlement network are described. Southern economic region ranks second among the regions with the lowest number of degenerate

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Portugal, Luís. "Mortality and Excess Mortality: Improving FluMOMO." Journal of Environmental and Public Health 2021 (June 7, 2021): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5582589.

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FluMOMO is a universal formula to forecast mortality in 27 European countries and was developed on EuroMOMO context, http://www.euromomo.eu. The model has a trigonometric baseline and considers any upwards deviation from that to come from flu or extreme temperatures. To measure it, the model considers two variables: influenza activity and extreme temperatures. With the former, the model gives the number of deaths because of flu and with the latter the number of deaths because of extreme temperatures. In this article, we show that FluMOMO lacks important variables to be an accurate measure of a

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Petrova, N. G., K. Yu Krotov, and D. B. Vcherashniy. "Dynamics and forecast of morbidity and mortality from prostate cancer in St. Petersburg." Scientific Notes of the I. P. Pavlov St. Petersburg State Medical University 22, no. 3 (2015): 25–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.24884/1607-4181-2015-22-3-25-28.

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The paper presents the characteristics of primary disease incidence, prevalence and mortality from prostate cancer among men's population of St. Petersburg (normal and age-standardized rates); analyzed their dynamics for 20 years; shows the calculated trend of these indicators up to 2020.

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Shishkina, E. A., O. V. Khlynova, and A. B. Cheremnykh. "Post-hospital Mortality Forecast in Young and Middle-Aged Patients with Myocardial Infarction." Doctor.Ru 19, no. 5 (2020): 24–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.31550/1727-2378-2020-19-5-24-29.

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Li, Nan, Ronald Lee, and Shripad Tuljapurkar. "Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data*." International Statistical Review 72, no. 1 (2007): 19–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00221.x.

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Blanes-Selva, Vicent, Vicente Ruiz-García, Salvador Tortajada, José-Miguel Benedí, Bernardo Valdivieso, and Juan M. García-Gómez. "Design of 1-year mortality forecast at hospital admission: A machine learning approach." Health Informatics Journal 27, no. 1 (2021): 146045822098758. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1460458220987580.

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Palliative care is referred to a set of programs for patients that suffer life-limiting illnesses. These programs aim to maximize the quality of life (QoL) for the last stage of life. They are currently based on clinical evaluation of the risk of 1-year mortality. The main aim of this work is to develop and validate machine-learning-based models to predict the exitus of a patient within the next year using data gathered at hospital admission. Five machine-learning techniques were applied using a retrospective dataset. The evaluation was performed with five metrics computed by a resampling stra

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Zima, Endre, Boldizsár Kiss, Anna Párkányi, et al. "Analysis and application of FORECAST (Forecast of Mortality Risk Early in the post Cardiac Arrest Syndrome Therapy) pilot score for estimate early mortality in post cardiac arrest syndrome patient population." Resuscitation 142 (September 2019): e98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resuscitation.2019.06.237.

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Bezhenar, Vitaly F., Lidia A. Ivanova, and Eduard K. Ailamazyan. "Perinatal loss dynamics in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region in 2006-2018: analysis, conclusions, forecast." Journal of obstetrics and women's diseases 69, no. 3 (2020): 63–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/jowd69363-71.

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Hypothesis/aims of study. The perinatal mortality rate is a comprehensive indicator of social well-being, economic development and the state of medical care in any country. The aim of this study was to analyze perinatal loss dynamics in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region for 2006-2018 so as to determine the reserves for the reduction of perinatal mortality. Study design, materials and methods. Regional statistical reports on perinatal mortality in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region for 2006-2018 were analyzed. Results. A retrospective analysis of perinatal loss dynamics i

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Huebschmann, Michael M., Lawrence R. Gering, Thomas B. Lynch, Onesphore Bitoki, and Paul A. Murphy. "An Individual-Tree Growth and Yield Prediction System for Uneven-Aged Shortleaf Pine Stands." Southern Journal of Applied Forestry 24, no. 2 (2000): 112–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/sjaf/24.2.112.

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Abstract A system of equations modeling the growth and development of uneven-aged shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) stands is described. The prediction system consists of two main components: (1) a distance-independent, individual-tree simulator containing equations that forecast ingrowth, basal-area growth, probability of survival, total and merchantable heights, and total and merchantable volumes and weights of shortleaf pine trees; and (2) stand-level equations that predict hardwood ingrowth, basal-area growth, and mortality. These equations were combined into a computer simulation prog

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Haldrup, Niels, and Carsten Rosenskjold. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality." Econometrics 7, no. 1 (2019): 9. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/econometrics7010009.

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The prototypical Lee–Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper, we propose a parametric factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups differently via parametric loading functions. We identify four different factors: a factor common for all age groups, factors for infant and adult mortality, and a factor for the “accident hump” that primarily affects mortality of relatively young adults and late teenagers. Since the factors are identified via re

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Nikitovic, Vladimir. "Demographic future of Serbia from a different angle." Stanovnistvo 51, no. 2 (2013): 53–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/stnv1302053n.

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Based on the assessment of the empirical errors in the official population forecasts of Serbia, the paper shows why forecast users might want a change of the current official concept. The article consists of three parts. The first gives a brief chronological overview of the methods and hypotheses in the official population forecasts of Serbia during the last 60 years. The second refers to the quantification of the past forecast errors in projecting total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and total population aiming at assessment of the empirical variability. The third part shows the pro

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Hainaut, Donatien, and Michel Denuit. "WAVELET-BASED FEATURE EXTRACTION FOR MORTALITY PROJECTION." ASTIN Bulletin 50, no. 3 (2020): 675–707. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2020.18.

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AbstractWavelet theory is known to be a powerful tool for compressing and processing time series or images. It consists in projecting a signal on an orthonormal basis of functions that are chosen in order to provide a sparse representation of the data. The first part of this article focuses on smoothing mortality curves by wavelets shrinkage. A chi-square test and a penalized likelihood approach are applied to determine the optimal degree of smoothing. The second part of this article is devoted to mortality forecasting. Wavelet coefficients exhibit clear trends for the Belgian population from

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Kornus, Olesia H., Anatolii O. Kornus, Volodymyr D. Shyshchuk, and Olena M. Korol. "Geographical peculiarities of the mortality risk of the population of Sumy region from cardiovascular diseases." Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology 29, no. 4 (2020): 710–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.15421/112064.

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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the main group of diseases from which the population of Sumy region suffers. They have not only high rates of primary morbidity and prevalence, but also play the leading role among the causes of mortality in the region. The aim of the article is clarification of the geographical features of mortality of the population of Sumy region from diseases of the circulatory system. In 2018 compared to 2012 the mortality of the general population in Sumy region from this class of nosology decreased by 1.17%, although among the able-bodied population it grew by 1.94%. T

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Zhang, Kai, Yeh-Hsin Chen, Joel D. Schwartz, Richard B. Rood, and Marie S. O’Neill. "Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality." Environmental Health Perspectives 122, no. 9 (2014): 912–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306858.

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