Academic literature on the topic 'Mortgage loan'

Some aspects of the application of norms in the field of mortgages by virtue of the contract are considered: the interpretation of paragraph 1 of Article 78 of the Federal Law «On Mortgage (Pledge of Real Estate)», the problem of eviction of citizens living with the mortgagor, the legal meaning of the purpose of the loan during foreclosure on property. The article analyzes the possibility of securing the debtor’s non-property obligations with a mortgage, the risks of the mortgagee when issuing a loan (credit) amount. It has been established that regulation of both targeted and non-targeted loans secured by the pledge of housing owned by citizens is of great importance. Thanks to the analysis of the current judicial practice, it was noted that at the moment the courts do not make the decision on the foreclosure of property dependent on the intended purpose of the loan (loan); however, exactly the purpose of the loan is taken into account by the court when deciding on the eviction of the mortgagor and the persons living with him. It has been established that at this stage in the development of civil law relations, the issue of protecting the rights of citizens, including minors, who risk losing their only habitable living quarters, arises.

Abstract Using loan level data on mortgage loans originated by Dutch banks during 1996 to 2015, we analyse the determinants of the incidence of non-performance. We find that both the originating loan-to-value ratio (OLTV) and the debt-service-to-income ratio are significantly positively associated with the probability of non-performance. The results suggest that mortgages with government-loan-guarantees perform better. Moreover, several mortgage loan and borrower characteristics, such as the (interest-only) loan type and the underwater status of the borrower, increase credit risk. Our model predictions suggest a novel policy implication: in order to avoid acceleration of non-performance probabilities, the OLTV-limit should be set to about 70–80% for uninsured mortgages, and to about 90% for those with mortgage insurance.

This paper develops a continuous time, contingent claims model of mortgage valuation with strategic behavior to show that mortgages that are securitized are characterized by significantly higher loan to value ratios than mortgages held on the balance sheet of the originator, if securitized mortgages cannot be renegotiated. Insofar as securitization inhibits loan modification, it serves as a credible threat to the borrower that default will provoke foreclosure. This enhances the value of the lender’s claim on the loan collateral, the home, and she is willing to lend more per dollar of collateral value. An important implication of the analysis is that the higher loan to value ratio for the securitized mortgage does not imply that the securitized mortgage is characterized by looser underwriting standards than the mortgage held on balance sheet. Higher loan to value ratios for securitized mortgages do not necessarily constitute evidence that securitization encourages risky lending.

The housing deficit in Ghana is an issue of concern for all. This study sought to analyse the determinants of the repayment of mortgage loans in Ghana. The study used both secondary and primary data. The mixed-method approach was used for the study. The data collection instruments were interviews, focus group discussions and questionnaires. The study revealed that socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, sex distribution of respondents, educational level of respondents, marital status of respondents, occupational status of respondents, household size of respondents, the income of respondents are some of the factors that affect the repayment of mortgage loans in Ghana. The study revealed that borrowers who earned higher income had a better repayment performance as compared to low income earning borrowers. In addition, higher household sizes have lower repayment capacity and lower household sizes have higher repayment capacity. The study recommends that the government of Ghana should institute state bodies responsible for providing liquidity to mortgages and mortgage properties and buying mortgages during periods of rising interest rates is a way of creating a secondary mortgage market for the Ghanaian mortgage industry. Keywords: Determinants, Mortgage, Repayment, Ghana.

The large-scale proliferation of China’s new type of agricultural entities has given rise to a higher demand for funds. Farmers have insufficient effective collateral, which makes it difficult for them to obtain sufficient loans. Chinese financial institutions have developed a biological asset mortgage loan business to cope with this situation. China has not considered biological mortgages but has been using real estate and asset mortgage models with strong realizability. This innovative financial business has achieved positive results since it was attempted, but it also faces many risks. It is very important to comprehensively and accurately consider the risk factors of biological asset mortgage loans. Based on 1249 production and operation data samples of new agricultural entities in Zhejiang, Henan, and Shandong provinces, this study constructs an XGBoost model for empirical analysis and compares it with logical regression, support vector machine, and random forest algorithms to obtain the optimal model and feature importance value. According to the characteristic importance value, a biological asset mortgage loan risk assessment system with 4 primary indicators and 20 secondary indicators is established, which can effectively identify the biological asset mortgage loan risk of new agricultural entities.

We combine loan data from distinct sources to compare and contrast multifamily mortgage lending in Canada and the U.S. After a general comparison of the multifamily housing markets in the two countries, we focus on loan pricing and non-price contract terms in the two environments. We find longer loan terms in the U.S. compared to Canada and attribute this to the greater liquidity available from a more established secondary mortgage market. We also find that while nominal rates are higher in Canada, mortgage spreads are actually lower, a result likely due to contract features that raise the cost of default for borrowers and restrict prepayments". In terms of loan performance, we found greater prepayment risk in U.S. mortgages and greater default risk in Canadian mortgages, although findings regarding default are limited by small sample size.

PurposeHomeownership has been the main focus of housing policies in most countries. Typical means that households use to achieve homeownership is to take out a loan and supplement this with accumulated wealth for a downpayment. This paper aims to analyze the mortgage demand behavior of households in the UK, Australia and Japan.Design/methodology/approachUsing three panel data sets, HILDA for Australia, KHPS for Japan and USS for the UK, the paper estimates three equations using ordinary least squares: mortgage demand function, housing demand function and initial loan to value ratio function.FindingsThough homeownership is a preferred tenure and the mortgages are “recourse” loans, housing markets in these three countries operate in different mortgage market institutional structures. Results indicate that income elasticity of mortgage demand differ despite income elasticity of housing demand being similar. Different mortgage institutions in countries that pose constraints for borrowers also determine mortgage demand. Other factors such as demography and economic conditions have also played an important role in determining mortgage and housing demand.Originality/valueThe paper is first, to the authors’ knowledge, that explores the role of institutions in mortgage demand in a comparative framework for the UK, Japan and Australia.

This paper provides novel estimates of the interest rate elasticity of mortgage demand by measuring the degree of bunching in response to a discrete jump in interest rates at the conforming loan limit—the maximum loan size eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reduces first mortgage demand by between 2 and 3 percent. One-third of this response is driven by borrowers who take out second mortgages, which implies that total mortgage debt only declines by 1.5 to 2 percent. (JEL D14, G21, R21, R31)

Covered mortgage bonds have been used successfully in Europe for two centuries, but failed in the United States when introduced as farm mortgage debentures in the 1880s. Using firm-level data and a sample of loans made by one Kansas mortgage company, I find that debenture programs grew out of established loan brokerage operations and were used to fund mortgages that were difficult to broker because of size, term, or risk characteristics. Debentures broadened access to the interregional mortgage market and facilitated an expansion of western farm mortgage debt before the innovation failed in the mortgage crisis of the 1890s.“[T]he availability of affordable mortgage financing is essential to turning the corner on the current housing crisis …. One option we have looked at extensively is covered bonds, which … have the potential to increase mortgage financing, improve underwriting standards, and strengthen U.S. financial institutions ….”Secretary of Treasury Henry PaulsonJuly 28, 2008

AbstractAs a rule, long-term bank loans entail solid security - a mortgage, regardless of their purpose. The mortgaged property has its specific market value during the loan approval period but during the repayment period, the value of the real estate varies. This is the reason why the initially specified indicator of the coverage of loans with the value of the mortgage - the LTV ratio changes, which in turn increases the risk of loan repayment. The aim of this paper is to draw attention to the necessity of establishing adequate initial LTV ratios (together with other important ratios). This would help nullify the risk of any variations in real estate prices, the loan currency risk, the interest rate risk, as well as the risk of an increase in bank's claims because of a long foreclosure process. The paper analyses effects of changes in LTV ratios caused by varying circumstances using the case study method. The comparative method analyses the changing trends of data on the LTV ratios for the already approved loans over a seven-year period by comparing the flow of the loan capital sum with the real value of the mortgage for three types of loans. The conclusion reached is that commercial banks should establish the initial LTV ratio for various long-term loan products and thus prevent its rise. Banks should do this by taking into account all the factors that cause the ratio’s increase, and thus give preference to the reduction of the credit risk and not the attractiveness and accessibility of loan products.

The mortgage industry played a major role in the recession faced by the U.S. economy in 2008, with approximately 8.8 million borrowers, or 10.8% of all homeowners, with negative equity in their homes. The purpose of this multiple case study was to explore strategies mortgage loan executives use to prequalify mortgage loan applicants. The target population consisted of 8 mortgage executives at 5 mortgage lending firms located in northwest Arkansas who demonstrated strategies to enhance the prequalification of mortgage loan applicants. The conceptual framework for the study was the theory of asymmetric information. In-depth, face-to-face interviews were conducted and the home loan toolkit and standard disclosure packets were reviewed. The data analysis technique used in this study followed Yin's 5-step data analysis process. Each interview response was interpreted, synthesized, and shared with the participant for validation during the follow-up member checking meeting. I coded the data to identify similarities in the data and prevalent themes, and to align the new data with previous literature. Based on methodological triangulation and thematic analysis, 4 themes emerged: counseling, government guidelines and regulation, disclosure, and literacy. Social change benefits include a more knowledgeable mortgage consumer that will benefit from enhanced education by the mortgage lender, which may result in lower mortgage defaults. This can increase homeowners' self-esteem, provide for community growth and development, and stabilize, and eventually grow, property tax revenues that could strengthen communities by expanding services and improving infrastructure.

A majority of delinquent mortgage loans during the foreclosure crises were unmodified. Lending institutions lost on average 50% of a home's value in future profit from each foreclosure. The purpose of this single case study was to explore what strategies mortgage loan officers might use to improve the selection of delinquent borrowers for mortgage loan modification. The conceptual framework for this study was contract theory. The target population included mortgage loan officers from one community bank who successfully implemented strategies to modify loans for delinquent borrowers during the foreclosure crisis. Semistructured interviews were the data collection method. Emergent themes were identified in the data using a form of pattern matching called explanation building. The following key themes emerged: asymmetric information is essential to a mortgage loan officer's ability to select delinquent borrowers for mortgage loan modification and mortgage loan officers could create value for their organizations through mutually beneficial contracts. The results of this study can be used by leaders in financial institutions to improve the processes and procedures pertaining to mortgage loan modification. Improving mortgage loan modification practices can reduce foreclosure and the impact foreclosures have on the deterioration of communities, property values, and the degraded ability of governments to provide services due to the loss of revenue.

Thesis (S.M. in Real Estate Development)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 2007.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 51-52).
The study takes a quantitative approach to test the determinants of commercial mortgage loan pricing at origination. The determinants include capital market risk, property market risks, mortgage terms and property characteristics. Taken into consideration of the endogenous factor between loan spread and LTV ratio, we use the OLS and 2SLS model to examine the variables of driving the spread and LTV and the interaction between them. The conclusion is drawn that there is little linkage between property market risks and commercial mortgage loan spread at origination. Therefore, commercial mortgage is mispriced in terms of property market risks.
by Xin Wang & Hongfei Chen.
S.M.in Real Estate Development

In the mortgage industry, many mortgage lenders cannot manage mortgage workflow systems while meeting and exceeding organizational objectives. Organizations with an above-industry average turnaround time (ATT) to complete a retail mortgage transaction (RMT) from origination to funding experience revenue losses. Grounded in the proposition that mortgage loan purpose (MLP), mortgage loan type (MLT), and subject property type (SPT) impact ATT to complete an RMT, the purpose of this causal-comparative study was to assess the impact of MLP, MLT, and SPT on ATT to complete an RMT. Using archival data records (N = 146) from a selected mortgage institution in the state of Florida, the results of the 2 x 2 x 2 factorial ANOVA showed that there were no main or interaction effects F(5,140) = 0.42, p = .83. Implications for social change include the possibility for mortgage lenders to implement improved workflow processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency metrics and intrinsic value, thereby benefitting organizational stakeholders such as employees and consumers.

Arguably, the credit risk models reported in the literature for the retail lending sector have so far been less developed than those for the corporate sector, mainly due to the lack of publicly available data. Having been given access to a dataset on defaulted mortgages kindly provided by a major UK bank, this work first investigates the Loss Given Default (LGD) of mortgage loans with the development of two separate component models, the Probability of Repossession (given default) Model and the Haircut (given repossession) Model. They are then combined into an expected loss percentage. Performance-wise, this two-stage LGD model is shown to do better than a single-stage LGD model (which directly models LGD from loan and collateral characteristics), as it achieves a better Rsquare value, and it more accurately matches the distribution of observed LGD. We next investigate the possibility of including macroeconomic variables into either or both component models to improve LGD prediction. Indicators relating to net lending, gross domestic product, national default rates and interest rates are considered and the interest rate is found to be most beneficial to both component models. Finally, we develop a competing risk survival analysis model to predict the time taken for a defaulted mortgage loan to reach some outcome (i.e. repossession or non-repossession). This allows for a more accurate prediction of (discounted) loss as these periods could vary from months to years depending on the health of the economy. Besides loan- or collateral-related characteristics, we incorporate a time-dependent macroeconomic variable based on the house price index (HPI) to investigate its impact on repossession risk. We find that observations of different loan-to-value ratios at default and different security type are affected differently by the economy. This model is then used for stress test purposes by applying a Monte Carlo simulation, and by varying the HPI forecast, to get different loss distributions for different economic outlooks.

Many analysts believe that problems in the U.S. housing market initiated the 2008–2010 global financial crisis. In this regard, the subprime mortgage crisis (SMC) shook the foundations of the financial industry by causing the failure of many iconic Wall Street investment banks and prominent depository institutions. This crisis stymied credit extension to households and businesses thus creating credit crunches and, ultimately, a global recession. This thesis specifically discusses the SMC and its components, causes, consequences and cures in relation to subprime mortgages, securitization, as well as data. In particular, the SMC has highlighted the fact that risk, credit ratings, profit and valuation as well as capital regulation are important banking considerations. With regard to risk, the thesis discusses credit (including counterparty), market (including interest rate, basis, prepayment, liquidity and price), tranching (including maturity mismatch and synthetic), operational (including house appraisal, valuation and compensation) and systemic (including maturity transformation) risks. The thesis introduces the IDIOM hypothesis that postulates that the SMC was largely caused by the intricacy and design of subprime agents, mortgage origination and securitization that led to information problems (loss, asymmetry and contagion), valuation opaqueness and ineffective risk mitigation. It also contains appropriate examples, discussions, timelines as well as appendices about the main results on the aforementioned topics. Numerous references point to the material not covered in the thesis, and indicate some avenues for further research. In the thesis, the primary subprime agents that we consider are house appraisers (HAs), mortgage brokers (MBs), mortgagors (MRs), servicers (SRs), SOR mortgage insurers (SOMIs), trustees, underwriters, credit rating agencies (CRAs), credit enhancement providers (CEPs) and monoline insurers (MLIs). Furthermore, the banks that we study are subprime interbank lenders (SILs), subprime originators (SORs), subprime dealer banks (SDBs) and their special purpose vehicles (SPVs) such as Wall Street investment banks and their special structures as well as subprime investing banks (SIBs). The main components of the SMC are MRs, the housing market, SDBs/hedge funds/money market funds/SIBs, the economy as well as the government (G) and central banks. Here, G either plays a regulatory or policymaking role. Most of the aforementioned agents and banks are assumed to be risk neutral with SOR being the exception since it can be risk (and regret) averse on occasion. The main aspects of the SMC - subprime mortgages, securitization, as well as data - that we cover in this thesis and the chapters in which they are found are outlined below. In Chapter 2, we discuss the dynamics of subprime SORs' risk and profit as well as their valuation under mortgage origination. In particular, we model subprime mortgages that are able to fully amortize, voluntarily prepay or default and construct a discrete–time model for SOR risk and profit incorporating costs of funds and mortgage insurance as well as mortgage losses. In addition, we show how high loan–to–value ratios due to declining housing prices curtailed the refinancing of subprime mortgages, while low ratios imply favorable house equity for subprime MRs. Chapter 3 investigates the securitization of subprime mortgages into structured mortgage products such as subprime residential mortgage–backed securities (RMBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). In this regard, our discussions focus on information, risk and valuation as well as the role of capital under RMBSs and RMBS CDOs. Our research supports the view that incentives to monitor mortgages has been all but removed when changing from a traditional mortgage model to a subprime mortgage model. In the latter context, we provide formulas for IB's profit and valuation under RMBSs and RMBS CDOs. This is illustrated via several examples. Chapter 3 also explores the relationship between mortgage securitization and capital under Basel regulation and the SMC. This involves studying bank credit and capital under the Basel II paradigm where risk–weights vary. Further issues dealt with are the quantity and pricing of RMBSs, RMBS CDOs as well as capital under Basel regulation. Furthermore, we investigate subprime RMBSs and their rates with slack and holding constraints. Also, we examine the effect of SMC–induced credit rating shocks in future periods on subprime RMBSs and RMBS payout rates. A key problem is whether Basel capital regulation exacerbated the SMC. Very importantly, the thesis answers this question in the affirmative. Chapter 4 explores issues related to subprime data. In particular, we present mortgage and securitization level data and forge connections with the results presented in Chapters 2 and 3. The work presented in this thesis is based on 2 peer–reviewed chapters in books (see [99] and [104]), 2 peer–reviewed international journal articles (see [48] and [101]), and 2 peer–reviewed conference proceeding papers (see [102] and [103]).
Thesis (Ph.D. (Applied Mathematics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

Following the collapse of property values and an increasing rate of default on high-risk mortgages, the United States experienced a subprime lending crisis that led to massive financial losses for holders of mortgage-backed securities. The purpose of this correlational study was to examine if loan product and loan amount predict the likelihood of loan foreclosure. The theoretical framework grounding the study was Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, which describes the basis of capitalism as economic expansionism followed by financial crises. The population consisted of 473 loan cases from archival data of the Atlanta Sixth Federal Reserve District in Georgia. The method used to collect the data was a probabilistic simple random sample taken from the archival data. The use of binary logistic regression resulted in a finding that the variables of loan product and loan amount significantly predicted the likelihood of loan foreclosure, Ï?2(4) = 10.65, p = .031, Nagelkerke R2 = .09. The Nagelkerke R2 value indicated that the model explained 9% of the variability in foreclosure. The findings specifically showed that Federal Housing Authority and Veterans Administration loan products were significantly more likely than conventional loans to cause losses for mortgage lenders. The implications for positive social change include increased stakeholder knowledge of various factors that can contribute to foreclosure and sustainment of community value with fewer homeowners losing their home in foreclosure.

AbstractIn Part I, entitled Real Estate and the Legal System, we analyze owner-unknown land issues, land acquisitions, and real estate auctions.The use and value of real estate such as land and buildings are significantly affected by public laws and regulations related to urban planning and construction, the environment, and taxation; for example, contract laws such as the Act on Land and Building Leases; private laws regulating torts, collateral enforcement, and so on; tax laws that regulate transfer taxes, ownership taxes, and transaction taxes; and regulations surrounding land use and urban infrastructure development. This paper discusses, therefore, the relationships between these laws and real estate, identifies problems in the laws associated with real estate in Japan, and proposes improvements.First, in recent years, owner-unknown land issues have become a serious concern in Japan. The Japanese registry does not always reflect the actual rightful owner, primarily because such registration is only a perfection requirement in civil law and registration involves a great deal of time and money. For example, because a large extent of land is registered to owners from nearly 100 years ago, it has changed hands many times through inheritance, which means that today, it is extremely difficult to determine the actual owner (inheritor) without spending a great deal of time and money. However, if the profits to be obtained from the land do not justify such expense, the land remains unused as “owner-unknown land.”Buying and selling land under Japanese civil law requires an agreement from all landowners including in the case of shared ownerships; therefore, even if the land has high returns, if it is “owner-unknown land,” it cannot be used effectively. With a focus on unknown-owner land, in this section, four writers provide multifaceted perspectives on the causes thereof, the defects in the current system, and the possible solutions.Eminent domain, the system which allows the acquisition of land against the land owner’s will for public projects, is widely institutionalized in many countries. It works to mitigate the owner-unknown land issues as far as lands are acquired by public projects.Further, real estate auctions are often held when liens are placed on land and/or residences for housing loan defaults. The Japanese civil auction system, which was institutionalized at the end of the nineteenth century, stipulates that a tenancy that is behind on a mortgage may resist a purchase unconditionally as long as the mortgage default period is within 3 years (short-term lease protection system/former Civil Code Article 395). This system was intended to avoid the unstable use of mortgaged properties and to promote the effective use of real estate; however, because the majority of users and the beneficiaries of this system were in fact anti-social groups, it was used to demand money unjustly from debtors and buyers, thus preventing the effective use of the mortgaged properties.When the protection of short-term leases was abolished in 2004, these types of interferences are said to have decreased drastically. However, successful bids for auctioned real estate properties continue to be lower than in general transactions. Therefore, here, we provide a quantitative analysis of these situations and propose further auction system improvements.Below, we introduce the outlines of each theory in Part I.

Turkish mortgage system was established by the law number 5582 and the title of "The Law Amending the Laws Related to Housing Finance System" in 2007. Even though the entry into force of this act expressed as "Pay the rent as the landlord-performing”, no bring up short of the interest rates of a housing loan were observed. In fact, Mortgage application could not be branch out yet. The distinguishing feature of the mortgage system, mortgage collateral pools of consumer loans with guaranteed by mortgage backed securities to be issued, sold in the capital market, also called the mortgage money is the safeguard of cheap funds. Using this fund for financing provided by banks as a result of re-housing resource for the consumer to pay the cost of housing loan interest rate is relatively go into a decline. Meanwhile, after the abundance of finance in the world, the so-called subprime mortgage, loans to non-qualified borrower, triggered the world economic crisis occurred. May well be, Turkey was unimpressed the crisis because of the not being set secondary mortgage market. All the public in charge of economy has introduced prevention of packages of measures.

This study has examined mortgage loan usage in terms of macroeconomic figures that may affect consumer behavior and financial instruments' returns. Multi regression analysis has been accompanied by preliminary tests such as ADF, VIF, Jarque Bera, Durbin Watson and White Tests. Results indicate that there is negative significant relationship among Mortgage loan volume and gold returns, unemployment rate, real mortgage rates and CPI. Whereas, significant positive relation has been determined with price index of new houses, USD return and consumer confidence index. The most significant relationship is determined with unemployment rate and the weakest relation is with the consumer confidence index.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.