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Doshi, Lyric (Lyric Pankaj). "Using sentiment and social network analyses to predict opening-movie box-office success." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/61284.
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Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 59-60).
In this thesis, we explore notions of collective intelligence in the form of web metrics, social network analysis and sentiment analysis to predict the box-office income of movies. Successful prediction techniques would be advantageous for those in the movie industry to gauge their likely return and adjust pre- and post-release marketing efforts. Additionally, the approaches in this thesis may also be applied to other markets for prediction as well. We explore several modeling approaches to predict performance on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) prediction market as well as overall gross income. Some models use only a single movie's data to predict its future success, while other models build from the data of all the movies together. The most successful model presented in this thesis improves on HSX and provides high correlations/low predictive error on both HSX delist prices as well as the final gross income of the movies. We also provide insights for future work to build on this thesis to potentially uncover movies that perform exceptionally poorly or exceptionally well.
by Lyric Doshi.
M.Eng.
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Tesař, Tomáš. "Analýza výnosnosti 3D ve filmu." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-114436.
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The main hypothesis of this dissertation says that movies which are shown in cinemas in 2D and also 3D version have greater box office than movies which are shown only in 2D version. The model with two simultaneous equations was constructed to confirm or reject this hypothesis. Data set includes movies which had wide release between January 2009 and December 2011 in the USA. The results show that 3D has no influence in the first week but there are negative significant effect on the number of screens, which could be connected with insufficient capacity of technologically equipped screens, and positive significant effect on revenues in the next nine weeks. The model includes other important and significant factors influencing revenues and the thesis compares these results with recent literature dealing with this topic.
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Somburanasin, Monsicha. "Risky Business : Does recognition reduce uncertainty of the movie industry global box office revenue? * of the movie as a one-liner to reflect the characteristics of the movie industry. notifies that Risky Business (1983) is a comedy-drama movie starring Tom Cruise. The writer intentionally uses the name Master Thesis." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12795.
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Introduction Movies are considered entertainment goods. Entertainment is one of the experience industries. Intangibility, perishability and heterogeneity are the most significant characteristics of the movie industry. An emotional reaction of consumers cannot be calculated in the same sense that most other physical goods can. If the movie succeeded in meeting the expectations, ticket price decreases will not necessarily indicate further purchases in the future. There are high risks and uncertainty in the movie industry. Purpose The purpose of this paper is to define through a hedonic price theory establishing whether the recognition is a significant factor to the global success of movies. The global success of the movies is determined by the global box office revenue. There are eight independent variables tested in this paper: global movie popularity, global popularity of the directors, global popularity of the authors, fame (determined by wining Academy Award), major studios, sequel, family genre and animation genre. Only one control variable, which is year of release, is included. Method The paper uses empirical model and the data set along with the results of the empirical analysis to achieve the purpose. Only secondary data were collected for the paper. Conclusion To reduce uncertainty in movie industry box office revenue, according to the data collected, recognition is significant to the consumers’ willingness to pay. The willingness to pay is determined by the global box office revenue. Only four independent variables, namely: sequels, Academy Award, the global popularity of the directors and the global popularity of the authors of the original script, are significant recognition factors to the global box office revenue. Movie producers shall be aware that consumers have to make sure utility gained from the consumption exceeds the costs in order to make purchases. Based on the sample collected, it can be summarized that consumers of the movie industry in general rely on previous consumption and recognition to reduce risks and uncertainty in terms of making purchases.
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Yao, Kathryn S. "The Future of Chollywood: The Imminent Rise of China's Film Industry." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2013. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/776.
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The research in this thesis will focus on China’s increasingly important role in the global film industry, including the dynamic between the Chinese government, the Chinese film industry, and Hollywood. The first chapter gives a comprehensive overview of the history of artistic trends in postsocialist Chinese film since 1979. The following chapter provides a history of the commercial and economic developments regarding the Chinese film industry after Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms and open door policy. In the third chapter, a detailed analysis of the different Chinese state entities and their functions provide insight into the history of the political and regulatory framework of the Chinese film industry. The fourth chapter examines Hollywood’s role and response to China’s burgeoning film industry and market including case studies of top western film companies that have been heavily involved with China. It also focuses on the challenges the domestic Chinese film industry faces in response to government censorship and competition from Hollywood. Finally, the conclusion offers predictions for the future state of the Chinese film industry, and discusses the implications surrounding the growing relationship between the China and Hollywood.
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Cassam-Chenaï, Arnaud. "Représentations et réception des films sur la Seconde Guerre mondiale en France à la Libération (1944-1950) : la concurrence des victimes." Thesis, Bordeaux 3, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019BOR30023.
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Dès les premiers jours de la Libération, de nombreux films sur la Seconde Guerre mondiale vont être projetés dans les salles de cinéma françaises. Entre la fin de l’année 1944 et 1950, ce sont 302 films qui prennent le conflit comme sujet. Pourtant, ces films qui sortent en France ne sont pas issus des mêmes pays, ne datent pas tout à fait de la même période, et n’abordent pas la guerre de la même façon. Surtout, ces films ne vont pas traiter des mêmes victimes de la guerre. Il y a des différences importantes entre une chronique française de l’Occupation, un film de guerre américain, la vision du retour des prisonniers italiens, une histoire de résistants soviétiques ou le récit de vie de citoyens britanniques. Le public français et la presse de l’époque qui commente ces sorties ne reçoivent pas ces différentes visions de la Seconde Guerre mondiale de la même façon. Étudier ces films et l’accueil qui leur a été réservé au lendemain du conflit permet de mieux comprendre la mise en place d’une mythologie de l’évènement en France. Mon étude analyse en trois parties ces représentations des différentes victimes de la guerre, et leur réception dans l’immédiat après-guerre. La première présente les concepts théoriques de l’histoire au cinéma, et l’histoire de la Seconde Guerre mondiale telle qu’elle est visible durant la période, en prenant en compte des statistiques générales élaborées pour cette étude. Les deux parties suivantes proposent des études de cas, sélectionnés pour leur représentativité. On se concentre d’abord sur les différents types de victimes combattantes – les militaires à la guerre, les militaires hors du front, les résistants et enfin les espions et assimilés. Ensuite, on étudie les victimes non-combattantes – les civils occupés, les civils libres, les prisonniers et déportés, les prisonniers de retour, les Juifs et victimes de l’antisémitisme et enfin les enfantsIn the immediate aftermath of the French liberation, theaters across the country began to project movies centered around the recent conflict. Between 1944 and 1950, World War II was the central theme of more than 302 films. However, these films came from different countries; they were not produced at the exact same time; they did not depict the conflict through the same angle; and more importantly, they did not cover the same class of war victims. Wide differences exist between a French chronicle of the Occupation and a U.S. war movie, a depiction of the homecoming of Italian prisoners and the story of soviet resistance or a narration of British citizens’ everyday life during the war. At the time, the response of the French audience and critics to these diverse movie releases varied greatly too. By studying these movies and their reception at the time of their releases, the present study informs our understanding of the emergence of the French mythology surrounding this major conflict. In three chapters, I analyze the cinematographic depictions of various groups of war victims in movies of this era, as well as the audience and critics’ response at the time. In the first chapter, I describe the theoretical underpinnings of the cinema history, as well as the narration of World War II as presented by these movies, using statistics specifically collected for this study. The two following chapters offer a series of representative case studies. I first focus on different groups of victims actively involved in the conflict: militaries on and off the front-lines, members of the resistance, and spies and assimilated individuals. I then study the non-fighting victims: civilians under the occupation, civilians living in the free zone, homecoming prisoners, members of the Jewish community and other victims of antisemitism, and finally, the children
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FLORÊNCIO, João Carlos Procópio. "Análise e predição de bilheterias de filmes." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/17639.
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Prever o sucesso de um filme e, por consequência, seu sucesso nas bilheterias tem uma grande importância na indústria cinematográfica, desde a fase de pré-produção do filme, quando os investidores querem saber quais serão os filmes mais promissores, até nas semanas seguintes ao seu lançamento, quando se deseja prever as bilheterias das semanas restantes de exibição. Por conta disso, essa área tem sido alvo de muitos estudos que tem usado diferentes abordagens de predição, seja na seleção das características dos filmes como nas técnicas de aprendizagem, para atingir uma maior capacidade de prever o sucesso dos filmes. Neste trabalho de mestrado, foi feita uma investigação sobre o comportamento das principais características dos filmes (gênero, classificação etária, orçamento de produção, etc), com maior foco nos resultados das bilheterias e sua relação com as características dos filmes, de forma a obter uma visão mais clara de como as caracaterísticas dos filmes podem influenciar no seu sucesso, seja ele interpretado como lucro ou volume de bilheterias. Em seguida, em posse de uma base de filmes extraída do Box-Office Mojo e do IMDb, foi proposto um novo modelo de predição de box office utilizando os dados disponíveis dessa base, que é composta de: meta-dados dos filmes, palavras-chaves, e dados de bilheterias. Algumas dessas características são hibridizadas com o objetivo evidenciar as combinações de características mais importantes. É aplicado também um processo de seleção de características para excluir aquelas que não são relevantes ao modelo. O modelo utiliza Random Forest como máquina de aprendizagem. Os resultados obtidos com a técnica proposta sugerem, além de uma maior simplificação do modelo em relação a estudos anteriores, que o método consegue obter taxas de acerto superior 90% quando a classificação é medida com a métrica 1-away (quando a amostra é classificada com até 1 classe de distância), e consegue melhorar a qualidade da predição em relação a estudos anteriores quando testado com os dados da base disponível.
Predicting the success of a movie and, consequently, its box office success, has a huge importance in the motion pictures industry. Its importance comes since from the pre-production period, when the investors want to know the most promising movies to invest, until the first few weeks after release, when exhibitors want to predict the box office of the remaining weeks of exhibition. As result, this area has been subject of many studies which have used different prediction approaches, in both feature selection and learning methods, to achieve better capacity to predict movies’ success. In this mastership work, a deep research about the movie’s main features (genre, MPAA, production budget, etc) has been done, with more focus on the results of box offices and its relation with the movie’s features in order to get a clearer view of the organization of information and how variables can influence the success of a film, whether this success be interpreted as profit or revenue volumes at the box office. Then, in possession of a movie database extracted from Box-Office Mojo and IMDb, it was proposed a new box office prediction model based on available data from the database composed of: movie meta-data, key-words and box office data. Some of these features are hybridized aiming to emphasize the most important features’ combinations. A features’ selection process is also applied to exclude irrelevant features. The obtained results with the proposed method suggests, besides a further simplification of the model compared to previous studies, that the method can get hit rate of more than 90% when classification is measured with the metric 1-away (when the sample is classified within 1 class of distance from the right class), and achieve a improvement in the prediction quality when compared to previous studies using the available database.
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Goetomo, Desmond. "Hollywood redux: A comparative study of film remake performance in the foreign and domestic box office." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1888.
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In the eyes of Hollywood producers, film remakes are popular endeavors to undertake. Part of the logic behind remakes is that they will likely perform successfully in the domestic box office because of the tried-and-tested formula that was the remake’s source material as well as the pre-existing fanbase. In addition, over the past two decades the international box office, particularly countries like China and Russia, are overtaking the United States in generating box office revenue. Hence, with the increasing popularity of producing remakes, as well as the growing significance of foreign markets for the entertainment industry, I test whether the international share of the box office is higher for remakes compared to other types of films. I control for several standard variables including type of film, genre, production budget, critical review score, recency of film, and number of installments in the film franchise. In conclusion, I find that although film remakes do not achieve significantly higher foreign box office shares, factors like sequel films, the horror genre, production budget and critical review scores play a significantly positive role in determining foreign box office share, thus indicating the preferences of foreign film audiences.
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Polyakov, Daniel M. "Estimating the Effects of Integrated Film Production on Box-Office Performance: Do Inhouse Effects Influence Studio Moguls?" Scholarship @ Claremont, 2011. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/245.
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Each year well over one billion movie tickets are sold to an audience who knows very little about what they are getting themselves into. Why is it that despite the uncertainty, people return to the theaters to see what Hollywood has in store for them? In efforts to provide answers regarding the driving forces behind Hollywood’s blockbuster hits, this study takes into account the integration levels of the studios. Specifically, does a movie produced in-house at a large studio have a better chance of being a blockbuster hit than one which is outsourced to an independent production company? Further, I discuss the motivation behind the studios’ decision. While considering the embedded integration within the motion picture industry, this study aims to provide insight regarding the extent of internal studio productions and the effects of these films on the box-office.
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Johansson, Jesper. "Success at the box office in the age of streaming services : An examination of how streaming services have impacted the dynamics of successful movies in the cinema." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Jönköping University, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-50486.
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Netflix and other streaming services have grown immensely since they started offering online streaming. In this paper I present a correlation matrix using ticket sales at the domestic box office and the number of Netflix subscribers. They are shown to be negatively correlated with one another, supporting many previous researchers’ thoughts on the topic. I also show using two OLS regressions with data from movies released in 2006-2007 and 2017-2018 that being a part of a franchise has a stronger correlation with increased revenue in the latter model compared to the previous one. In the models one can also see that the general quality of a movie, as measured by IMDb rating, is associated with a higher increase in revenue in the latter model. I argue that this is due to consumers being inclined to watch what they perceive to be high-quality movies in the theaters in the latter model as they can conveniently watch movies of a poorer quality on their streaming service, an option that was not available to the same extent previously. I also argue that consumers are more willing to commit to going to the cinema for a franchise movie, especially in the Marvel cinematic universe, as they are often effects driven movies which are better experienced on a large screen. The budget variable is significant in both models, but the coefficient is much smaller in the second model. I argue that this is due to the fact that a higher budget is required for movies released in 2017-2018 to maintain the same level of revenue as in 2006 and 2007 due to the competition that have come from streaming services. However, I conclude that more research is necessary before drawing definite conclusions as the market for cinema is highly uncertain and difficult to estimate accurately.
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Enting, Staffan. "Politisk kommunikation genom film : En studie kring hur den realpolitiska agendan speglas i den moderna spelfilmen." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för film och litteratur (IFL), 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-76679.
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The aim of this study is to explore the correlation between contemporary political agenda and film themes, how and if the antagonists’ behavior is depicted in relation to whom the political opponent was at the time of the making of the film. The literature is concurrent: movies are used to spread norms and political messages. There are several examples; during the Cold War people and antagonist behavior could clearly be linked to the Soviet Union. During the Gulf War the antagonists was often depicted as Arabic terrorists, but after the war the villain character became unclear and was often represented by natural disasters, organized crime, corruption etc. Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, Arabic terrorists once again became the new antagonists. The film selection is made out of the five most profitable movies (adjusted for inflation) that take place in our world that was produced during the Cold War, and five films that fill the same criteria that was produced after the Cold War. My goal was to see if I could see a correlation between the political agenda at the time of the making of the movie, how the antagonists are portrayed and what political themes were addressed. Unexpectedly, I found no such correlation in my film selection. However, I could see similarities in certain genres, such as action, thrillers and adventure movies, that support the theories in the literature.Jag studerar huruvida man kan dra en parallell mellan den rådande politiska agendan och filmens politiska teman samt hur skurkgestaltningen ter sig i relation till vem den politiska motståndaren var då filmen gjordes. Litteraturen är tydlig kring att film används för att sprida normer och politiska budskap. Det finns flera exempel kring hur man under kalla kriget främst hade Sovjet eller personer och beteenden som tydligt kunde kopplas till Sovjet som skurkar. Efter kalla kriget, i samband med Gulfkriget, blev det under en tid araber för att därefter vara en mer oklar skurkroll (ofta naturkatastrofer, organiserad brottslighet, korruption, etc.). Efter terrorangreppen mot USA den 11:e september 2001 fick man återigen en tydlig motståndare och den arabiske terroristen blev den nya antagonisten. I min studie utgår jag från de fem filmer som drog in mest pengar (justerat för inflation), som utspelar sig i vår värld och som kom under kalla kriget, samt de fem filmer inom samma kategorier som kom därefter. Detta för att se om jag kan se en tydlig parallell mellan den rådande politiska agendan och hur skurkarna gestaltas samt vilka politiska teman som tas upp. Oväntat nog finner jag att ingen sådan tydlig koppling finns i de exemplen. Jag finner liknande paralleller inom vissa genres, såsom actionfilm, thrillers och äventyrsfilm, men ingen direkt koppling till filmen generellt kan göras.
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CHEN, HENG-JU, and 陳姮如. "Forecasting Movie Box-office with Neural Networks." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/24zm2n.
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碩士國立雲林科技大學
應用外語系
106
Movies have long been considered the pinnacle of human creativity. Understanding the elements that may contribute to the success of a movie will bring insights to future filmmakers. This study is intended to investigate the elements contributing to the box-office of the top 250 movies rated by IMDb. Characteristics, including budgets, genres, runtime etc., of the selected movies were treated as possible elements that might lead to their box-office. Neural Network approaches were employed to find the best combination of these characteristics that created blockbusters. Classification, correlation and function approximation analyses along with neural network were employed to examine the relationships between various elements and box-office success. The exemplar shows that the predicted outputs overlap with the actual numbers almost perfectly with an amazing correlation of 0.99. Therefore, the actual profits and the predicted outcome were significantly correlated. Implications and suggestions were made to the practitioners and researcher at the end of the study.
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Wu, Yen-Chih, and 吳硯之. "A wave of micro-movie impact on movie box office and director in Taiwan." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/31801697053195609854.
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碩士國立交通大學
經營管理研究所
102
With the trend of the world, Taiwan in recent years have begun to attach importance to the development of cultural and creative industries. According to the Council for Economic Planning instructions, cultural and creative industries will be one of six emerging industries. In the cultural and creative industries, the film industry for its high level of industrial extension features are considered hidden unlimited business opportunities and added value of flagship industries. To encourage domestic film industry, the Government Information Office for the movie industry to provide more counseling and incentives, hoping to boost the domestic film industry. The word "micro-movie" is also quietly became popular in Chinese communities. Micro-film to fully test the market acceptance, reduce marketing costs and launch commercial movie box office pressure, compared to the direct introduction of commercial movies may afford the loss of such spending is still quite a bargain. The popularity micro-movie had a positive influence on the movie box office, film director also produced micro-film to enhance personal awareness.
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Liao, Shiue-ru, and 廖雪如. "Determinants of American Movie Box Office-Analysis of Panel data." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59783q.
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碩士世新大學
財務金融學研究所(含碩專班)
100
The film industry is a very important industry worldwide. Many products are created and launched relating to a scuccessful movie. Producing and marketing a movie is notoriously risky so determinants of Box Office are very important. Past studies always use OLS regression model to analysis the cross-section of motion picture box office. This study applies panel data analysis to examine key factors affecting movie box office in American. Our data includes not only film characteristics but also distribution-related variables and daily box office. The results show that previous cumulated box office, runtime, theaters and MAPP rating have siginificant positive effects on box office. The fixed effect panel analysis reveals that the positive relationship between time and daily box office may not always hold. The negative time effect appears in the 27th days after the release day of the movie.
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Lin, Yu-Jing, and 林玗靜. "Predict the Performance of Movie Box Office using Artificial Intelligence Technique." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/an5d52.
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碩士淡江大學
資訊工程學系碩士班
106
Whether a movie can receive box office success involves many aspects of the problem, this study explores different group of input data to influence the result of predicting box office performance in movie industry. This study was conducted from Deep Learning methods and conducted in-depth research on the box office prognostication technology. The main source of the dataset is extracted from Opus Data database which covers the film release from 1997 to 2017. This study proposes an idea of labeling that the film will be grouped according to the production year firstly. The experimental shows the compresence of proposed labeling and related labeling and the result of different sets of input data. The results were evaluated in two terms of the accuracy: Bingo and 1-Away. The results show that adding specified input data can effectively improve the prediction results.
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黃琬玲. "Devising a successful marketing model of movie creative industries:focusing on the outstanding box office of USA movies." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/06722259358462947520.
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碩士國立彰化師範大學
行銷與流通管理研究所
95
Creative industry research has becoming an emerging issue recently, which is also supported by the government with all authorities' strength in Taiwan. The well-known director, Ang Lee, filmed a popular movie named “Brokeback Mountain” that won the Oscar Academy Awards last year. It makes Taiwan begin to stride forward to international market and hence attracts the focus of the whole world. This successful film therefore demonstrates clearly the fact of great benefits made from creative industries with cultural prospect. In the recent year, technologies advances and peoples’ lifestyle changes have been significantly affected the film market and led to change accordingly. For example, the movie “Shrek” is an animation genre developed by advanced technology in movie manufacturing industry. On the other hand, the popular movie “Harry Potter” has a box office success based on the release periods of summer or Christmas. In the other words, the interaction model of internet will important for communicate of all trades and professions in Web 2.0 period. Users will easy to record and share everything that he knows in the internet. According to this, the study attempts to prove the consumer will refer to the internet media (e.g., blog or community) in their collect process and the word of mouth will be effect the box office. In view of these cases, this study according to Marketing Portfolio and tries to find the elements that imply the key successful factors of box office of USA movies. We hope to devise a new successful marketing model with practical applications to relevant industries. The samples for this study were drawn from IMDb, a renowned online movie information service, which were released between 2003 and 2005 and earned at least $1 million in the domestic. A total of 497 movies were selected for final analysis after reducing the number of movies by constrains. Our expect result would indicate that Product attribute (genre: sci-fi and animation), Brand awareness (actor and director), release periods (Christmas), number of screens, audience rating and the internet information source include community and blog were significantly related to total box office performance.
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SHUANG, QIU, and 邱爽. "Using Big Data to Analyze the Important Factors of Movie Box Office to Explore the Relationship between Taiwan and Mainland Box Offices." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/stxc9t.
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碩士中國文化大學
資訊管理學系
107
With the improvement of people's living standards, more and more people enter the cinema to enjoy movies. Watching movies has become an indispensable part of people's entertainment life. The economic development of China has driven the vigorous development of the film industry. China has already become the second largest film market after the United States. Such a huge film market, if the theater can predict the trend of upcoming movies, will be very beneficial to investors. The Taiwanese film market is similar to Chinese film market. The film released in Taiwan will be 7-25 days earlier than China. If we can find the correlation between the Taiwanese movie box office and Chinese movie box office, then the investor can make corresponding strategies for the upcoming movie in China. This study used data exploration to study and influence the factors affecting the box office of the movie. The method used is to mine association rules. Firstly, find out the influencing factors of Taiwanese box office, and then explore the connection between Taiwanese box office and Chinese movie box office. Finally, through experiments, if a movie gets a high box office in Taiwan, when it released in China, it will have 82% possibility get a high box office.
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KUO, BING-LIANG, and 郭柄良. "Using Text Mining to Analyze the Relationship Between Movie Reviews And Taiwan Box Office." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90315794224599097989.
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碩士中華大學
生物資訊學系
105
The development of the Internet has made it possible for modern people to publish their opinions directly through the computer or mobile phone to all corners of the world. Writing articles is no longer a patent for only a few people. In the movie review as an example, the critics have read the movie to write a commentary on their own subjective consciousness, but there is no relevant research of these subjective awareness of these data into the public taste. Therefore, this study collects discussion articles on specific movies at Movie forum in PTT Bulletin Board System. These articles are analyzed by text mining to explore the relationship between users' comments and the box office. This study used R language to write data mining programs. We will first crawl down 2016 Top 10 films at the Movie forum of PTT in two ways. All comments are grabbed from these films and only users’ fondness (it is called spoiler for good) of them, in which all 4015 review articles and 841 fondness ones. Then, the text mining technique first breaks down the 841 fondness articles and extracts the Top 50 adjectives. These adjectives are used to construct the word vector and calculate the similarity of each movie. After that, the linear regression model is established to predict the total box office value of Taiwan movie. The model validation method is carried out in LOOCV. And finally, several independent test data are selected to verify the reliability of the model. The findings show that BBS users' comments are related to the use of adjectives at the box office. The degree of relevance can be used in prediction of the box office. In addition to predicting box office prices, the regression models established in this study can also deconstruct elements that attract people to the cinema. This allows multimedia workers to produce more popular films based on consumer tastes and preferences.
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Lei, Ying, and 雷. 瑩. "Word-of-Mouth, Marketing and Movie Box Office Performance: the case of the Chinese market." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7x868e.
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Huang, Yi-Ting, and 黃怡婷. "Using Social Media Data and the Least Squares Support Vector Regression to Predict Movie Box Office." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/8b2m49.
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碩士國立暨南國際大學
資訊管理學系
106
Nowadays increasingly busy lives and the and easy accessibility of Internet, the development of social networking sites has been promoted, and the number of users has increased dramatically year by year. This study used Twitter, one of the top 10 global community websites in 2017, as a source of collection of emotional analysis data, and as the combination of this study. The other data were collected from movie websites of Box Office Mojo and IMDB (Internet Movie Database) This study uses the least square support vector regression (LSSVR) and the following three models Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR), Back Propagation Neural Networks (BPNN), the General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to analyze the data. The cross validation procedure was performed. The numerical results indicated that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the emotional data combined with structured data is lower than that generated by the single data (emotional data or structured data). In addition, the prediction results of LSSVR model are better than that of the other modes.
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CHAN, CHENG-HSUAN, and 詹政軒. "Predicting the Time Series of Box Office Revenues for a Movie based on Deep Learning Approach." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/c35tpf.
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碩士國立臺北科技大學
電機工程系
107
In an era of rapid technological advance, all kinds of movies are springing up; hence predicting the box office revenues for a movie has become an important research topic. This thesis proposes a deep learning model for predicting the time series of box office revenues for a movie using the data collected from IMDB and Google. In this thesis, two experiments are conducted: （1） simply using some previous day's box offices to predict the next day's box office for a movie, and （2） using other movie attributes and some previous day's trends on Google search to predict the next day's box office for a movie. The results of experiment （1） show that when the number of previous day's box offices is seven, the results outperform other numbers. The results of experiment （2） show that the performance is better when incorporating the attributes of a movie budget and the number of days since the release date of the movie for predicting the time series of box office of the movie.
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Yu, Cheng-en, and 余承恩. "Deep learning applications: Prediction of Movie box Office Performance and Great Maintenance Time for Wind Turbine." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/a6v5r8.
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碩士國立中山大學
通訊工程研究所
106
In recent years, deep learning has received much public attention and made great progress technically; it has been successfully applied to the products in the marketplace, and it has been widely used in different fields for its capabilities in image and voice identification. Convolutional neural network (CNN) is popular deep-learning neural network architecture, and it has initially achieved impressive performance in image processing and can even be seen in various fields later. This paper proposes two studies based on Convolutional Neural Network to establish a predictive model. The first study analyzes and predicts the box office of Taiwan based on the key information related to the movie. The second study predicts the great maintenance of the wind turbines. Taipower has two wind farms located in Changhua Coastal Industrial Park. This paper uses data collected from two wind farms to do forecast research. The experimental results show that deep learning can also have good performance in forecasting.
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Kęstutis, Černiauskas. "The effect of film sharing on P2P networks on box office sales." Thesis, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-15295.
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Context. Online piracy is widespread, controversial and poorly understood social phenomena that affects content creators, owners, and consumers. Online piracy, born from recent, rapid ITC changes, raises legal, ethical, and business challenges. Content owners, authors and content consumers should benefit from better understanding of online piracy. Improved, better adapted to marketplace and ITC changes content distribution models should benefit content owners and audiences.Objectives. Investigate online piracy effect on pirated product sales. Improve understanding of online piracy behaviors and process scale.Methods. This observational study investigated movie-sharing effect on U.S. box office. Movie sharing was observed over BitTorrent network, the most popular peer-to-peer file-sharing network. Relationship between piracy and sales was analyzed using linear regression model.Results. File sharing was found to have a slightly positive correlation with U.S. box office sales during first few weeks after film release, and no effect afterwards. Most of newly released movies are shared over BitTorrent network. File sharing is a global, massive phenomenon.Conclusions. I conclude that online movie file sharing has no negative correlation on U.S. box office. Slightly positive movie sharing correlation to box office sales could have occurred because sharing rather informs, than substitutes cinema going.
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Cheng, I.-San, and 鄭沂珊. "The Study of Influential Factors of American Movie Box Office -- The Influnce of Academy Awards and Golden Globe Awards." Thesis, 2002. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/69959077869663696966.
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Zhang, Zhi-Kai, and 張智凱. "The Effects of Dynamic Word-of-Mouth and Movie Features on Box Office: The Moderating effect of Culture Difference." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/d2q947.
Full textAbstract:
碩士中國文化大學
國際企業管理學系
106
According to a research of Mckinsey & Company, a management consulting company, 67 percent of consumer products are sold through word of mouth in America (Taylor, 2003). Many users will consult others about use experience of some products on the Internet, so as to reduce the risk and uncertainty of purchasing. However, a large majority of researches study the relationship between static word of mouth and sales, but few researches focus on the relationship between dynamic word of mouth (such as valance and volume of word of mouth) and sales. Furthermore, previous studies on word of mouth ignored the interfering effect of cultural differences on the relationship between dynamic word of mouth and sales. In other words, in different cultural structures, whether the relationship between weekly word of mouth and sales during a movie’s release is still unknown. Hall (1976) carried out a research and concluded that cultures in Asian countries (such as China) belong to high-context culture, the degree of homogeneity among consumers is high and consumers depend more on preconceived information; while cultures in American countries (such as America) belong to low-context culture, consumers are highly heterogeneous and they stress more on reason and logic. To study the influences of dynamic word of mouth and movie valance on the box office and interfering effect of cultural differences, the author gathers relevant information of American IMDB, the volume and valance of Internet word of mouth on movie.douban.com in China and movies (including production budgets, stars and directors), explores into the relationship between dynamic word of mouth and box office and compares the differences in Chinese and American cultures and discusses whether cultural differences will influence the relationship between dynamic word of mouth and box office. In this study, SPSS 22.0 is used for regression analysis and two-factor variance analysis to verify the correlation hypothesis. Research finds that both the volume and valance of consumers’ dynamic word of mouth are related to box office. In terms of movie valance, box office stars are positively correlated with the box office. Thirdly, compared with America, in China, the relationship between the valance of network word of mouth and box office is stronger in the middle and late stages during the movie’s release, which indicates that major purchasers (imitators) in the middle and late stages during the movie’s release attach more importance to the valance of word of mouth rather than the volume. The research findings enable practice circles and academic circles to learn more about consumers in high-context culture (such as China) and low-context culture (such as America). For example, in the middle and late stages during the movie’s release, consumers value others’ thoughts more. Lastly, suggestions for practice circles are proposed.
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Li, Bo-Han, and 李博涵. "Investigating the Interactive Effect of Electronic Word-of-Mouse Volume and Valence on box Office Before and After Movie Release." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ua449u.
Full textAbstract:
碩士中國文化大學
國際企業管理學系
106
With rapid development of Internet, more and more consumers like to decide whether to buy or not through the word of mouse on website, so is the current situation in film industry. However, in the past, most literatures only discussed the influence of word of mouse characteristics on box office from static point of view, but ignored dynamic one. In other words, we should make further inspection on dynamic and various characteristics of word of mouse, and the influence of dynamic word of mouse characteristics on box office before and after film release. Furthermore, in the past, most literatures only focused on single feature influence of word of mouse (volume or valence) on the box office. However, as for real online film platforms, both valence and volume of word of mouse have interactive effects on the final box office. In order to solve these important practical problems, this thesis not only collected the valence and volume of word of mouse of 83 films on douban.com from 2014 to 2017, and the box office data of China box office website and relevant data of movies, but also discussed the shortcomings of above researches. It found that the valence and volume of word of mouse before release had no significant influence on overall box office, and it also had no interactive effect on overall box office. This result showed us that the valence and volume of word of mouse before release cannot predict the overall box office. It also explained that pre-release word of mouse will occur continuously rather than intensively, so studios should periodically promote and strengthen the intensity of advertising and marketing. After the film released, the weekly word of mouse volume had a significant impact on weekly box office. Only in the fifth week, valence can impact on box office of that week significantly. In addition, the volume and valence of word of mouse after the film release have significant interactive effects on the box office. That is, regardless of the valence, word of mouse is still the key factor affecting the box office. In other words, when valence is high, the more word of mouse, the better the box office; conversely, when the valence is low, the more word of mouse, the better the box office, too. Therefore, in the first four weeks after film released, the studio should create new topics and hotspots every week to improve the word of mouse volume. In the fifth week, studios should know the current situation of word of mouse timely, when encounter negative word of mouth, studios have supposed to try every means to decrease the damage of negative word of mouth. Furthermore, in order to encourage consumers to go to the cinema, studios should propagandize by all manner of media to build positive word of mouth.
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Sá, Rafael Castilho Corrêa de. "Movie’s box office performance prediction: An approach based on movie’s script, text mining and deep learning." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/96119.
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Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Knowledge Management and Business IntelligenceA capacidade de prever a bilheteria de filmes tem sido atividade de grande interesse para investigadores. Entretanto, parcela significativa destes estudos concentra-se no uso de variáveis disponíveis apenas nos estágios de produção e pós-produção de filmes. O objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver um modelo preditivo de bilheteria baseando-se apenas em informações dos roteiros dos filmes, por meio do uso de técnicas de processamento de linguagem natural (PLN), mineração de texto e de redes neuronais profundas. Essa abordagem visa otimizar a tomada de decisão de investidores em uma fase ainda inicial dos projetos, com foco específico na melhoria dos processos seletivos da Agência Nacional do Cinema do Brasil.
The ability to predict movies box-office has been a field of interest for many researchers. However, most of these studies are concentrated on variables that are available only in later stages as in production and pos-production phase of films. The objective of this work is to develop a predictive model to forecast movie box-office performance based only on information in the movie script, using natural language processing techniques, text mining and deep learning neural networks. This approach aims to optimize the investor’s decision-making process at earlier steps of the project, with special focus on the selection process of the Brazilian Film Agency (ANCINE – Agência Nacional do cinema).
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Cassam-Chenaï, Arnaud. "Représentations et réception des films sur la Seconde Guerre mondiale en France à la Libération (1944-1950) : la concurence des victimes." Thesis, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019BOR30023/document.
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Dès les premiers jours de la Libération, de nombreux films sur la Seconde Guerre mondiale vont être projetés dans les salles de cinéma françaises. Entre la fin de l’année 1944 et 1950, ce sont 302 films qui prennent le conflit comme sujet. Pourtant, ces films qui sortent en France ne sont pas issus des mêmes pays, ne datent pas tout à fait de la même période, et n’abordent pas la guerre de la même façon. Surtout, ces films ne vont pas traiter des mêmes victimes de la guerre. Il y a des différences importantes entre une chronique française de l’Occupation, un film de guerre américain, la vision du retour des prisonniers italiens, une histoire de résistants soviétiques ou le récit de vie de citoyens britanniques. Le public français et la presse de l’époque qui commente ces sorties ne reçoivent pas ces différentes visions de la Seconde Guerre mondiale de la même façon. Étudier ces films et l’accueil qui leur a été réservé au lendemain du conflit permet de mieux comprendre la mise en place d’une mythologie de l’évènement en France. Mon étude analyse en trois parties ces représentations des différentes victimes de la guerre, et leur réception dans l’immédiat après-guerre. La première présente les concepts théoriques de l’histoire au cinéma, et l’histoire de la Seconde Guerre mondiale telle qu’elle est visible durant la période, en prenant en compte des statistiques générales élaborées pour cette étude. Les deux parties suivantes proposent des études de cas, sélectionnés pour leur représentativité. On se concentre d’abord sur les différents types de victimes combattantes – les militaires à la guerre, les militaires hors du front, les résistants et enfin les espions et assimilés. Ensuite, on étudie les victimes non-combattantes – les civils occupés, les civils libres, les prisonniers et déportés, les prisonniers de retour, les Juifs et victimes de l’antisémitisme et enfin les enfantsIn the immediate aftermath of the French liberation, theaters across the country began to project movies centered around the recent conflict. Between 1944 and 1950, World War II was the central theme of more than 302 films. However, these films came from different countries; they were not produced at the exact same time; they did not depict the conflict through the same angle; and more importantly, they did not cover the same class of war victims. Wide differences exist between a French chronicle of the Occupation and a U.S. war movie, a depiction of the homecoming of Italian prisoners and the story of soviet resistance or a narration of British citizens’ everyday life during the war. At the time, the response of the French audience and critics to these diverse movie releases varied greatly too. By studying these movies and their reception at the time of their releases, the present study informs our understanding of the emergence of the French mythology surrounding this major conflict. In three chapters, I analyze the cinematographic depictions of various groups of war victims in movies of this era, as well as the audience and critics’ response at the time. In the first chapter, I describe the theoretical underpinnings of the cinema history, as well as the narration of World War II as presented by these movies, using statistics specifically collected for this study. The two following chapters offer a series of representative case studies. I first focus on different groups of victims actively involved in the conflict: militaries on and off the front-lines, members of the resistance, and spies and assimilated individuals. I then study the non-fighting victims: civilians under the occupation, civilians living in the free zone, homecoming prisoners, members of the Jewish community and other victims of antisemitism, and finally, the children
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"Methodologies in Predictive Visual Analytics." Doctoral diss., 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.43997.
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abstract: Predictive analytics embraces an extensive area of techniques from statistical modeling to machine learning to data mining and is applied in business intelligence, public health, disaster management and response, and many other fields. To date, visualization has been broadly used to support tasks in the predictive analytics pipeline under the underlying assumption that a human-in-the-loop can aid the analysis by integrating domain knowledge that might not be broadly captured by the system. Primary uses of visualization in the predictive analytics pipeline have focused on data cleaning, exploratory analysis, and diagnostics. More recently, numerous visual analytics systems for feature selection, incremental learning, and various prediction tasks have been proposed to support the growing use of complex models, agent-specific optimization, and comprehensive model comparison and result exploration. Such work is being driven by advances in interactive machine learning and the desire of end-users to understand and engage with the modeling process. However, despite the numerous and promising applications of visual analytics to predictive analytics tasks, work to assess the effectiveness of predictive visual analytics is lacking.
This thesis studies the current methodologies in predictive visual analytics. It first defines the scope of predictive analytics and presents a predictive visual analytics (PVA) pipeline. Following the proposed pipeline, a predictive visual analytics framework is developed to be used to explore under what circumstances a human-in-the-loop prediction process is most effective. This framework combines sentiment analysis, feature selection mechanisms, similarity comparisons and model cross-validation through a variety of interactive visualizations to support analysts in model building and prediction. To test the proposed framework, an instantiation for movie box-office prediction is developed and evaluated. Results from small-scale user studies are presented and discussed, and a generalized user study is carried out to assess the role of predictive visual analytics under a movie box-office prediction scenario.Dissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Engineering 2017
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Chen, Cho-Ju, and 陳倬儒. "Predicting Box-Office of Movies Using Online Reviews." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/cc294w.
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碩士國立中正大學
資訊管理學系暨研究所
103
Seeing movies has become the most popular leisure activity now, the box-office continue to break records, but the budget of movies are so high, if there were no evaluation, it may be huge loss. If we can predict box-office before it is released, film studios, film distribution and investors can make their decision more easily. There are many factors to influence box-office, directors, actors/actresses, etc. Now, Internet has become the most important way to transfer information, online reviews may be seen by users and take effect on them. Our research collects 2009 to 2014 movie data and reviews from IMDb, includes 5 genres and total 1,658 movies, we use SentiStrength and Stanford CoreNLP to analyse reviews, combined with movies data and external factor to predict box-office. We use M5P, Linear Regression and SMOreg methods to build prediction models, and compare the result without reviews and result with reviews. The result shows that the prediction models with reviews are better than without reviews, but if we spilt the data into different year, the results would be lower because the lack of data. Reviews can help the result of prediction, and the principal factor is the number of reviews, reviews can only influence specific genres of movies.
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Chou, Chia-Chun, and 周佳俊. "3D Movies Office Box Analysis via Function-On-Scalar Regression." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/11594350718416740604.
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碩士國立中興大學
統計學研究所
104
This paper forecasting method is divided into two parts. Start by using of the film’s box office revenue departments into low, medium, and high class. Each film has their own cast feature: directors, writers, composers, actors to classify into their catogory. Second, we are able to model into function-on-scalar regression. Responses are functional type of movies office box. Construction of the base functions use principal component analysis to establish release dates associated with characteristic function. Explanatory variables which we used are the budgets, a number of cinemas screening, the directors, actors, writers, composers and Metacritic Scores. Finally, we employ the model which we fit to predicted 2016 new film. Fisrt, we need to decide the new film revenue fell low, medium and high class. Second, we able to predict the future box office within 42 days after the new movie release trend to address the problems of investors concern.
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Chen, Ying-cheng, and 陳盈成. "An analysis of the top 2008-2011 box office movies in Taiwan." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/16155243539643146211.
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碩士南華大學
管理經濟學系經濟學碩士班
100
In the aftermath of the movie “Cape NO.7” which went successfully in theaters in 2008, the box office of Taiwanese movies has grown dramatically in the recent years, and domestic films have gradually commanded increasing public interests. Taiwan is not short of movie goers or box office markets the whole time. The issue is how the movie industry can motivate audience''s interest in domestic movies. To this end, marketing strategies may be one of the key factors that determine whether a film would succeed. This study examines five domestic films that have set box office records with over a million dollars over the years 2008-2011 in Taiwan. Analysis of their marketing strategies and methods may reveal what promotion practices have affected the box office performance.
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Hsu, Pang, and 徐邦. "An Analysis of the Major Determinants of Box Office Sales for Hollywood Movies." Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/91161624525421275368.
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碩士淡江大學
美洲研究所碩士班
103
The Hollywood film industry is considered to be an extraordinarily important part of the United States, both from a cultural and economic perspective. Not only is the film industry extremely lucrative, but it also effectively propagates American culture around the world. Although the film industry is relatively profitable in general, the high upfront cost of investment, the uncertainty of future consumer reaction, and the difficulty in predicting success all lead to high risk in the film industry. Despite this, it may be possible to avoid investment failures through the implementation of sound marketing strategies if one can identify the salient determinants of box office sales. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the major determinants of box office sales for Hollywood movies over the period 2004-2013. The analysis applies both multivariate and quantile regression methods to study the interrelations between box office and two general categories of explanatory variables, including movie related variables and macro-economic variables. The research results indicate that: (1) dramas have a very significant negative impact on the box office performance compared to other genres, (2) ticket prices are relatively stable regardless how much has been invested into producing the movie. Hence movies with a huge production cost have a very significant positive influence on the box office revenues, and so does the length of the movie, (3) critics'' rating play a prominent role in a movie''s success. Movies that are rated highly by critics typically enjoy very significant positive impact on their box office sales. In addition, due to the different values between critics and consumers, some movies still succeed in the first week box office even though they have received a low rating from the critics. The results of quantile regression discover that: (1) the length of a movie has a negative impact on the 0.1 quantile of total box office, (2) production cost has a remarkably positive influence on the 0.1 quantile in the first week of the box office, (3) dramas have a strong negative impact on the 0.1 and 0.2 quantile in the first week of the box office.
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Yin, Chia-lien, and 殷嘉蓮. "The Relationship between the Awarded-Winning Movies of Taiwan and the Box Office." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/22582285790580420311.
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碩士國立中山大學
傳播管理研究所
94
Since “The City of Sadness” won the first Golden Lion Award of International Venice Film Festival, winning an international award has become a rule that Taiwanese film do its marketing strategy. However, although “The City of Sadness” created a high profit in its sales, other awarded movies seem not so lucky in the sales performance. This research mainly bases on the aspect of marketing to study the phenomenon that Taiwanese film industry devotes in attending international film festival as its marketing strategy and further to analyze the relationship between the movie box office and this phenomenon. Secondary data would be employed in this research. As a result, besides “The City of Sadness”, both “The Wedding Banquet” and “Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon” also have good performance in their sales. However, the success of these two movies not only resulted from getting awards but also the stories of the movies could attract people to go to the theater. According to the result of this research, we can find that there are more than 400 international film festivals in the world, but only Oscar Award is related with the sales of the film. On the other hand, other film festivals have not been able to attract people as much as “The City of Sadness” did. Moreover, this situation also can prove one thing: the movie should be developed by commercial mode in order to be accepted by most audiences. To sum up, Taiwanese movies are on purpose (e.g. increase profit and government support) to attend international film festival. However, there are not any benefits to the market of the Taiwan movie and it will let audiences to be distant from their owner entertainments product of their country. If Taiwan government cannot identify the real direction of the Taiwan movies, there is no future of Taiwan movies.
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Su, Yi-Wen, and 蘇怡文. "The Effects of Internet Information Delivery on Taiwanese Movies'' Box Office Success." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3ka86g.
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碩士淡江大學
會計學系碩士班
102
Taiwan movie industry has experienced recession since 1982. Until recent years government starts to support cultural and creative industries, including movie industry. Taiwanese movies box office is then slowly. In the mean time, the development of internet information delivery is getting mature, by taking this development, this research collects data of Taiwanese movies from 2002 to 2013 and discuss the value factors that triggers Taiwanese movies box office and performs empirical analysis by using regression models. The research shows that the box offices of Taiwanese movies are significant influenced by the cast of movies, internet information delivery and whether it is a sequential movie or adapted from best-selling novel. It is suggested that in the internet era, internet delivery has become an important factor that contributes the value of movie, this result provides references for the valuation of film, and gives information for film maker and publisher for the development and marketing.
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Taveau, Margaux, and 譚慕歌. "Achieving worldwide box-office success: opportunities and challenges for chinese movies in the global market." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6a9z63.
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碩士國立政治大學
國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
106
This thesis aimed at looking at the current state of exports of Chinese movies as well as at the other ways for the Chinese film industry to conquer international markets. Chinese films are not an easy product to export, and up to now, only a very small number have been successful. They are complicated to sell abroad because, like most artistic products, they face cultural and economic barriers, but most importantly, it is a matter of quality. The Chinese industry is currently not capable of producing high-quality movies that could attract international audiences. Aware of this weakness, the key players in the industry have turned to other ways to learn how to dominate the global market, primarily by working with their Hollywood counterparts. Several strategies have been set up: movie co-production, in which Chinese staff get to work with foreign ones; investments in production studios; or even a complete acquisition of established foreign film companies. There is also a strong political motivation behind the issue of selling Chinese movies abroad: China’s clear intentions of broadcasting Chinese culture to increase their soft power and influence abroad require Chinese movies to be able to reach non-domestic audiences.
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Tang, Wan-Hsin, and 唐婉馨. "Information Diffusion among Users on Facebook Fan Pages over Time: Its Impact on Box-Office Revenues for Movies." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/57790384708993756830.
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碩士國立臺灣大學
資訊管理學研究所
102
With the rapid growth and the maturity of online social networking applications, many people share their activities and opinions through social media. Facebook is one of the fastest growing social networks and has experienced a burst of popularity in recent years. In this study, we propose a framework to investigate the impact of social influence of a Facebook fan page on the movie box-office revenue. The proposed framework contains two phases. First, we develop the Global Influence Model to estimate the user influence and predict the engagements between the fan page and users. Next, we propose the Linear Box-Office Revenue Prediction Model to establish the relationship between Facebook fan pages and movie box-office revenues by utilizing the social influence and some statistics obtained from Facebook fan pages. The experiment results show that the accuracy of forecasting revenues for movies can be improved significantly by considering the social influence.