Academic literature on the topic 'National Behavioral Theory'

This article will review the role of behavioral theory in the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign and then will identify lessons learned as the Campaign evolved to adjust to new insights and the realities of the mission. It should be noted that the primary dependence on national advertising, as opposed to a more integrated campaign using community-based or other media and social marketing strategies, or a more targeted, segmented campaign, was a premise of the Campaign as authorized by Congress. In other words, the role of social science was limited primarily to identifying desired attitudinal and behavioral outcomes and to helping develop message platforms and briefs that might help achieve those outcomes. Although social science input was not invited with respect to the broader strategic issues in prevention communication strategy, its application in the design and implementation of a major national media campaign has been a unique opportunity worthy of documentation and further consideration.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of key antecedents of unified theory of acceptance and use of technology model 2 on behavioral intention to accept and use mobile payment systems in National Capital Region, India. Design/methodology/approach A sample of 267 mobile payment system users in National Capital Region was obtained through an online survey. A partial least squares method was used to find out whether key antecedents of UTAUT2 predict behavioral intention to accept mobile payment systems which further predicts use behavior toward mobile payment systems. Findings The research substantiates that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, habit and facilitating conditions significantly predict behavioral intention, which in turn significantly predict use behavior to use mobile payment systems. Both social influence and hedonic motivation were weak predictors of behavioral intention. Research limitations/implications The research substantiates that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, habit and facilitating conditions significantly predict behavioral intention, which in turn significantly predict use behavior to use mobile payment systems. Both social influence and hedonic motivation were weak predictors of behavioral intention. Originality/value The research substantiates that performance expectancy, effort expectancy, habit and facilitating conditions significantly predict behavioral intention, which in turn significantly predict use behavior to use mobile payment systems. Both social influence and hedonic motivation were weak predictors of behavioral intention.

A review of the course content in behavior therapy and single-subject research designs offered by 67 of the 99 accredited or preaccredited graduate schools of social work was conducted. Although behavior therapy is a viable perspective in social work education, the approach seems embedded in a context of clinical eclecticism which does not seem likely to provide adequate training in either learning theory or behavioral methods.

Abstract This study aims to empirically examine the influence of subjective norms, behavioral control, and intention on the attitude of internal auditors to report fraud with ethical leadership as a moderating variable. This study used a scenario-based survey of internal auditors working in state-owned and mid-level private companies. The sample was chosen by the non-random method because the sample was taken from the participants of the SNIA (National Internal Auditor Symposium) and in total, 117 respondents were gathered as valid samples. Data were analyzed using Warp PLS 4.0. This study proves that subjective norms and behavioral control have a positive effect on the attitude of internal auditors to report fraud, while intention has a negative influence on the attitude. Ethical leadership strengthens the positive influence of subjective norms and behavioral control on the attitude of the internal auditors. It also reinforces the negative influence of intention on the internal auditors’ attitude. This research supports a model of integration between Theory of Planned Behavior and Social Cognitive Theory, which states that the environment, in this case ethical leadership, influences the internal auditor's cognition in making ethical decisions. However, this study cannot prove that ethical leadership can reduce the negative influence of intention on the attitude of internal auditors to report fraud.

Behavioral safety is the application of reinforcement theory to foster an increase in “safe behavior.” The process starts with a behavioral hazard analysis to identify unsafe workplace behaviors. A checklist is then developed to assist in the observation of work behavior. Safe and unsafe behaviors are recorded and provided as feedback (reinforcement) to the worker, which increases safe behavior leading to continuous improvement and worker involvement. Developed in the late 1970s, behavioral safety has an impressive track record. Research has shown that as safe behaviors increase, safety incidents decrease. Within the Department of Energy, behavioral safety has been instituted at industrial sites such as the Savannah River Site (SRS) and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPRO), and at national laboratories such as Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL). In all cases, implementing the behavioral safety process has led to an increase in safe behavior and a decrease in overall safety incidents.

A Unified Theory of Party Competition: A Cross-National Analysis Integrating Spatial and Behavioral Factors, J.F. Adams, S. Merill, III and B. Grofman, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005, pp. 311.A Unified Theory of Party Competition continues the development of the important research agenda started by Merrill and Grofman's A Unified Theory of Voting: Directional and Spatial Proximity Models (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999). This agenda focuses on integrating hitherto diverging streams of the literature in order to present sophisticated formal models that lead to empirically testable predictions with more realistic results than earlier models. As such, this book is at the cutting edge of developing the scientific study of politics. Although written with an explicit theoretical concern in mind, it presents a wealth of rigorous empirical tests, drawn from case studies of Britain, France, Norway and the Unites States, to demonstrate how well the theory travels across very different institutional and contextual settings.

Research on behavioral intention model theory, with the national equestrian team, national basketball team and the 2010 National University Games 120 athletes (including 60 male athletes, the athletes belong to the collective project of 60) as the experimental objects, Started by the method of implicit cues and reward leads the race on the movement of risk behaviors reported.

In the United States less than 10% of cancer patients engage in clinical trials. Although most oncology nurses have multiple opportunities to discuss clinical trials with patients, barriers including attitudes and social norms may impede these discussions. Guided by the Theory of Planned Behavior, we developed and evaluated measures for attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control of nurses for discussing clinical trials with cancer patients. Of the 18,000 Oncology Nurse Society members invited, 1,964 completed the survey. Structural equation modeling and internal consistency reliability were used to evaluate items and constructs. We found that overall model fit and reliability was good: Confirmatory Fit Index (CFI) = 0.91, Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.05; attitudes, 21 items, alpha = 0.84; perceived behavioral control, 10 items, alpha = 0.85; and subjective norms, 9 items, alpha = 0.89. These measures of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control show good reliability and initial evidence of validity.

How can states with a history of conflict promote trust with one another? Distrust between South Korea-Japan and China-Japan aggravates security fears and limits institutional cooperation in the region. Existing studies support the promotion of a common, overarching identity (e.g. “Asian-ness”) over a strong sense of national belonging. Are salient national identities harmful or helpful for increasing trust between countries? Applying the psychological theory of group-affirmation to an international context and integrating experimental methods from behavioral economics, I aim to examine whether affirming national identities can increase trust of another country. In a novel experiment with South Korean, Chinese, and Japanese participants, I find that group-affirmed individuals reported higher levels of trust, measured by payments in a trust game.

Test anxiety involves a variety of physiological, cognitive, and emotional components. Those suffering from high test anxiety seem to perform poorly on examinations because test anxiety can contribute to information processing challenges both while studying for tests and during evaluative situations. Current research indicates that when a training program is applied that incorporates cognitive behavioral techniques as well as study skills training, highly test anxious individuals can overcome information processing challenges, increase their academic performance, and earn higher scores on tests. In this study, a training program (Counseling Exam Test Anxiety Intervention) combining cognitive behavioral techniques and study skills training was applied to highly test anxious counselors and counselors in training preparing to retake the National Clinical Mental Health Counseling Examination (NCMHCE) after failing it at least once. This study makes the first known attempt to examine test anxiety specifically associated with the NCMHCE. The research questions guiding this study related to exploring the nature of test anxiety, any changes that occurred during administration of the Counseling Exam Test Anxiety Intervention (CETAI), and whether or not the CETAI was effective in terms of decreasing test anxiety and increasing academic performance. The findings revealed that when participants in this study applied the skills they learned from the CETAI, they improved their scores on practice tests, experienced an increase in confidence, and the majority of them successfully passed the NCMHCE when they retook it.

Background Younger indoor tanning initiation leads to greater melanoma risk due to more frequent and persistent behavior. Despite this, there are no published studies exploring the predictors of indoor tanning initiation in teen populations. Purpose This longitudinal study uses latent profile analysis to examine indoor tanning initiation in indoor tanning risk subgroups from a national sample of female adolescents. Methods Latent profile analysis used indoor tanning beliefs and perceptions to identify indoor tanning initiation risk subgroups. The teens in each subgroup were reassessed on indoor tanning initiation after a year. Results Three subgroups were identified: a low risk, anti-tanning subgroup (18.6 %) characterized by low scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; a moderate risk aware social tanner subgroup (47.2 %) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales but also high scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers; and a high risk risky relaxation tanner subgroup (34.2 %) characterized by high scores on positive indoor tanning belief scales and low scores on beliefs about indoor tanning dangers. Teens in the aware social tanner and risky relaxation tanner subgroups were significantly more likely to initiate indoor tanning in the following year. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to identify teens at risk for indoor tanning initiation and develop tailored interventions that will move them to the lowest risk subgroup. Subgroup correlates suggest parent and peer-based interventions may be successful.

For decades, union membership and activity has been declining in North America; employers have demanded greater flexibility and have successfully weakened workplace and worker protections. Modern workers increasingly use alternative strategies to negotiate conditions of employment with managers who have limited their discretionary power. Negotiated order theory provides a useful tool for analyzing the mesostructural arrangements of bargaining parties during labor disputes. This thesis applies negotiated order theory to explore how and why the National Football League (NFL) players have twice decertified their union and sought court intervention to challenge the legitimacy of the League's highly restrictive reserve system. An outcome-focused content analysis was designed as a preliminary investigation to ascertain why an alternative strategy was sought and if the strategy proved more effective in securing the players' preferred ends than conventional collective bargaining. The NFL case offers a fixed market from which to formulate a negotiation context of the interorganizational structures and bargaining interactions of its members.

The study theorizes that a nation-state can manifest a condition similar to that of personality commonly associated with humans. Through the identification of consistent behaviors, a personality like condition is recognizable, and the underlining motivations dictate national policy independent of any current social/political influence. The research examines Russia during two historical periods examining the conflict events and social/political transitions of the period, to identify common behavioral characteristics, which indicate the existence of any independent personality like trait. The study focuses on two historical periods: the Monarch Period of Peter I (The Great), and the Post-Soviet Union period of Vladimir Putin, periods selected as historical eras in which Russia experienced major political or social transition. Using a comparative qualitative historical analysis with a behaviorist focus, the research examines these periods by profiling each era’s elements of society and the events of domestic and international conflict that Russia experienced, while evaluating the actions taken in response to each. The research discovers that Russia exhibits personality like traits, similar to those associated with humans and are likewise developed from experience, and once imbedded into Russian psychology, regardless of the current social/political elements or situational conditions, remain prime motivators to Russian behavior. The personality like characteristic identified was similar to inferiority, which leads to behavior characteristics comparable to narcissism, as the definition of narcissism relates to the need for admiration and or acceptance. The study identified the origins of the inferiority like complex and the narcissistic like behavior pattern exhibited by Russia in both periods.

The non-medical use of prescription drugs is an important public health concern. Non-medical use of prescription stimulants (NMUPS), specifically medications used to treat Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), is particularly concerning. One timely concern regarding NMUPS, especially among young adults, is their role in appetite suppression/weight loss. Indeed, some individuals are motivated to misuse such drugs for the purpose of losing weight. Engaging in NMUPS for weight loss has been examined only minimally in the research literature. However, extant data demonstrate that this behavior is associated with other unhealthy behaviors and poor psychosocial health. Limitations of prior research include the exclusive use of college student samples and little attention to relevant health behavior theory. The current study investigated NMUPS for weight loss in a national, young adult sample (n = 1526), ages 18-25 years, utilizing Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. Motivations and attitudes about NMUPS were evaluated, within the framework of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). A structural equation model (SEM) was analyzed, which included attitudes; social norms; and perceived behavioral control (PBC) to lose weight without stimulants, as predictors of engaging in past year NMUPS for weight loss. Approximately 12.0% of participants reported lifetime NMUPS for weight loss, and of these, 48.4% reported past year use. Findings demonstrate that use is related to disordered eating and unhealthy weight loss behaviors, including vomiting; high rates of other substance use; and psychological concerns, including body dissatisfaction and depressive symptomatology. These results suggest that NMUPS for weight loss is associated with a variety of negative consequences and users are not well-informed regarding medication knowledge. The SEM provided adequate overall fit to the data; two of the four social norms and both PBC factors were significantly associated with NMUPS for weight loss. This study extends the literature on the utility of the TPB in examining NMUPS, and provides the first research on utilizing the TPB to examine NMUPS for weight loss. Methods aimed at increasing PBC regarding stimulant use and weight loss, and emphasizing healthful and sustaining weight loss strategies, improving mental health, and educating about polysubstance use are potential intervention targets.

In this study I examine foul calls by NBA referees alongside the difference in aggressiveness of twelve NBA basketball teams as they compete for the Championship Title. I aim to identify referee biases that increase the likelihood of the NBA Finals ending in a later game due to league revenue incentives. My data consists of 91 individual NBA Finals games played between the 2001 and 2016 NBA Finals. After controlling for changes in play as well as the difference in aggressiveness, I find that NBA referee’s foul calls are more dependent on a call on the opposing team in situations with a larger series score spread. Additionally, I identify a consistent officiating bias towards the home team. My results imply an effort by the NBA to increase the probability of the series ending in a later game, possibly motivated by increased revenues for the league and all parties involved.

The purpose of this study was to understand the lived experiences of Jamaican Expatriate Female C-suite executives in the diaspora of working in Multi-national Companies (MNCs). A further question to be answered was the meaning they derived from their experiences. With little research emerging from the Caribbean about this elite class of professionals, the research intended to expose the challenges faced as an outsider in unfamiliar spaces. Research on other groups have exposed limiting factors to women’s progress in MNCs. Critical Race Theory with a brief mention of Critical Human Geography and Intersectionality are lens applied to critique the experiences of the eight participants. This research mined the extant literature that looked at navigating barriers, disrupting stereotypes and gender diversity in international careers. The method of inquiry applied to this research was existential phenomenology and its utility in getting to the essence of the women’s lived experiences highlighted the glass-border phenomenon. In reflecting on the outcome, this research opens the door for scholars and practitioners alike, to critically assess the expatriate literature and to probe further the complex relationship between international business, the movement of black talent across geographic and culturally diverse boundaries and the challenges encountered. The results of this study illuminated several themes from the participants textural descriptions: (1) Moving from Invisible to Visible – Disrupting Bias; (2) Who am I? – Identity, Gender and Heritage; (3) Renegotiating the Rules of Engagement paired with Re-branding the Role and Authority of Women in Business; (4) Male Sponsorship Leads to Acceptance; (5) Improving Skill and Competency Capital for New Roles; (6) Building and Maintaining Bridges – Network Management.

Spikes of militancy, intolerance, ethnic division and sectarianism have all risen within Pakistan in recent years, yet Pakistan’s continuous battle to deter violent extremism fails to be successful. Following the December 16, 2014 Army Public School (APS) massacre in Peshawar Pakistan little empirical attention has been paid on how the Pakistani government, in the Northwest region of Pakistan, is countering violent extremism (CVE). As well as, its link to policy-making decisions on CVE. This dissertation study sought to analyze the currently active CVE narrative that Pakistan implemented into its Constitution in 2014. This qualitative explanatory case study project focused on operational links that could be traced over time. A content analysis of secondary sources of Pakistani political briefings and press conferences relating to the Pakistani 21st amendment was carried out to identify important themes that emerged. The qualitative analysis of the data generated five themes: (1) word-based agency, (2) knowledge & governance, (3) accountability, (4) closure, and (5) deontic orientation. To assist in addressing the research question, a critical holistic historical qualitative case study analysis was preferred because of its unique strength in incorporating various sources of evidence. Several suggestions of the findings are discussed. These include suggestions for practice and theory, bench-marking of the 21st amendment, and the inclusion of stakeholders in the CVE process.

Problem. As demonstrated by strategic miscalculations since World War II, national security and military strategy development often do not integrate understanding of a range of possible future conditions in the national security environment. Scholarly research lacks examination of the role foreseeing plays in strategy development in the national security, or military, context. Foreseeing as a cognitive process, to include its application in sectors other than the national security establishment, is a much-discussed but not empirically researched topic within the strategy and management fields.

Research question. This study addressed one primary research question: How does the process of foreseeing possible future conditions inform development of national security strategy?

Method. This research was a case study of foreseeing, viewed as it occurred within the organizational strategy development process initiated by the commanding officer of a large U.S. military organization and key senior members of his staff. The researcher conducted interviews of the commander and his staff, observed a strategy review session, and reviewed working documents and published strategy documents produced by the organization.

Conclusions. The study resulted in three conclusions. The first and most fundamental conclusion was that foreseeing was observed in this case of strategy development through eight properties that describe the foreseeing process, and they were dynamically interrelated to generate enactive inputs to strategic decision making. Next, the data clearly illustrated that foreseeing was shaped by several factors, including individual characteristics of the participants, external environmental conditions, and internal aspects of the organization that impacted the organization’s strategic resource allocation decisions. Finally, foreseeing and sensemaking, as described by Dr. Karl Weick and his colleagues over several years, are inextricably linked as distinct but complementary processes; foreseeing is sensemaking forward.

Influenced by a profession-wide recognition of the unique and distinct nature among psychological specialty practice as well as efforts to define professional competence, this online resource illustrates how cognitive and behavioural psychologists actualize each area of professional activity associated with the areas of competence currently delineated by professional psychology through national consensus working groups and conferences. It provides information for best practices designated under the main areas of foundational and functional competencies, with each chapter focused on a specific area of competence, including information on foundational knowledge that informs competent cognitive and behavioural specialists, with regard to theory and scientific research, ethical practice, and competence in individual and multicultural diversity. Delineated functional areas of competence include assessment methods, case formulation, interventions, consultation, supervision, and teaching. Professional competencies with regard to therapeutic and collegial interpersonal interactions and identity as well as continuing professional development are also addressed.

This book is motivated by a belief that theories of economic development can move beyond the generally known factors and mechanisms of such development. It establishes a behavioural theory of economic development illustrating that differences in human behaviour across cities and regions are a significant deep-rooted cause of uneven development. Fusing a range of concepts relating to culture, psychology, human agency, institutions, and power, it proposes that the uneven economic development and evolution of cities and regions within and across nations are strongly connected with the underlying forms of behaviour enacted by humans both individually and collectively. Integrating theoretical and empirical analysis, the book builds upon entrepreneurial and innovation theories of economic evolution to make sense of the cultural, psychological, and agentic components and elements of city and regional economic ecosystems that lead to long-term differentials in development. For social scientists with an interest in understanding the nature of uneven economic development, the book provides a novel theory of the role of human behaviour, psychocultural context, and institutions in the evolution and uneven development of cities and regions. This human behaviour is framed in the form of the ‘behavioural profile’ of cities and regions encompassing citizens in terms of their personalities, cultural histories, aspirations, and perceived opportunities, as well as their broader propensities to act in certain ways.

Serious games are gaining profile as a novel strategy to impact health behavior change in the service of national health objectives. Research has indicated that many evidence-based programs are effective because they are grounded in behavioral and motivational theories and models such as the PRECEDE model, the Health Belief Model, Social Cognitive Theory, the Theory of Reasoned Action, the Transtheoretical Model, Attribution Theory, and the ARCS model. Such theories assist in understanding health behavior problems, developing salient interventions, and evaluating their effectiveness. It follows, therefore, that serious games can be made optimally effective in changing health behavior if they are also informed by these theories. A successful intervention development framework (Intervention Mapping) provides a means to enable game developers to use theory to inform the design of effective games for health. This chapter describes useful theories and models for health game design, introduces the intervention mapping process, and describes a case study of a theory- and empirically-based serious health game intervention that has used these approaches and has been rigorously evaluated.

Using insights from institutional theory, the chapter proposes understanding ethics as national institutions that deeply influence social entrepreneurship. Moreover, the chapter proposes that low behavioral ethical standards (normative ethical institutions) provide opportunities for individuals to establish social enterprises. Furthermore, it proposes that high public-sector ethical standards (regulatory ethical institutions) and values of unselfishness (cognitive ethical institutions) facilitate and motivate individuals to establish social enterprises. The chapter also explores the combined effects of public-sector ethical standards and low behavioral ethics, public-sector ethical standards and societal unselfishness, and low behavioral ethics and unselfishness, on the creation of social enterprises. The chapter contributes to cross-cultural comparative entrepreneurship by suggesting, through a multilevel framework, the effects of societal-level ethical institutions on the creation of social enterprises.

Using insights from institutional theory, the chapter proposes understanding ethics as national institutions that deeply influence social entrepreneurship. Moreover, the chapter proposes that low behavioral ethical standards (normative ethical institutions) provide opportunities for individuals to establish social enterprises. Furthermore, it proposes that high public-sector ethical standards (regulatory ethical institutions) and values of unselfishness (cognitive ethical institutions) facilitate and motivate individuals to establish social enterprises. The chapter also explores the combined effects of public-sector ethical standards and low behavioral ethics, public-sector ethical standards and societal unselfishness, and low behavioral ethics and unselfishness, on the creation of social enterprises. The chapter contributes to cross-cultural comparative entrepreneurship by suggesting, through a multilevel framework, the effects of societal-level ethical institutions on the creation of social enterprises.

This chapter describes a novel behavioral bias not previously documented in a competitive situation: psychological pressure in a dynamic competitive environment arising from the state of the competition. Drawing on a data set comprising 1,001 penalty shoot-outs with 10,431 penalty kicks over the period 1970–2013, it collects information on the date of every shoot-out of every competition, the identity of the teams kicking first and second, the final outcome of the shoot-out, the outcomes of each of the kicks in the sequence, the geographical location of the game (that is, whether the game was played in a home ground, a visiting ground, or in a neutral field); and variables that measure the quality of the teams, such as their previous experience in shoot-outs, their official FIFA and UEFA rankings (for national teams), and the division, category, and standings (for club teams).

Utilizing the lens of Heider's (1958) attribution theory and Grable and Joo's (2004) conceptual framework, this chapter studies the effect of situational and dispositional attributions on changes in financial risk tolerance. Situational factors are assessed through changes in household situation and changes in macroeconomic factors. For dispositional factors, changes upon sensation seeking attitudes are explored. The data employed in this research come from the 1993, 1994, and 2006 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 5,449). Results from structural equation modeling indicate that changes in internal attributions have a significant and positive effect (coefficient = 0.12, p <0.01) on the change in risk tolerance, as is true for changes in external attributions where a significant effect is seen (coefficient = 0.30, p <0.01). Thus, the findings from this study support the conceptual framework premised on Heider's attribution theory and Grable and Joo's (2004) conceptual model.

Adapting Keller's brand image theory (1993), this paper presents an exploratory framework for giving brand image to a nation. Utilizing unstructured interviews, the result suggests that tourism and hospitality attributes can be used for giving brand image to a nation and behavioral intention. Specifically, the result denotes that the perceived brand image of a nation is formed according to tourists' cognitive and affective beliefs, which at the end; influence the action to recommend to others and/or for repeat visitation. In addition, the “pretentious” nation brand campaign and national identity found in this exploratory study should be focused upon as variables for further research and testing the framework.

The chapter explores the utility of neuroeconomics in decision making and behavior. Scientific knowledge will be advanced in the need for the application of neuroeconomics focused on one of the services of the information and communication technologies (ICT) of companies, that is, e-commerce of exponential artisanal SMEs of women entrepreneurs, by developing a proposal for a business model to increase the possibility of growth of their companies at the level national and international level. The methodology used was deductive, exploratory, descriptive, correlational, and documentary. Neuroeconomics have the potential to explain the phenomena that are considered as a deviation from the prediction or behavioral bias of decision-making models in economic theory. The study up to this point is quantitative using primary and secondary sources for research.

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is one of two design laboratories in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) weapons complex, with over 60 years of experience in handling hazardous and radioactive materials. Actinide research and development are performed in two nuclear facilities. The Plutonium Facility has been in operation since 1978, and the Chemistry and Metallurgy Research (CMR) Facility was built in 1952. The Nuclear Materials Technology (NMT) Division is responsible for operating both facilities in a safe and environmentally sound manner. At these NMT Division nuclear facilities, the primary hazards that are associated with chemicals and radioactive materials are well controlled, with minimal risk to the workforce and the public. Most workforce injuries are physical or ergonomic in nature. In an effort to increase safety awareness and to decrease accidents and incidents, a program focusing on identifying and eliminating unsafe behaviors was initiated. This process is named ATOMICS (for Allowing Timely Observations Measures Increased Commitment to Safety). Workers are trained on how to conduct safety observations of one another and given guidance on specific behaviors to note. Observations are structured to have minimal impact on the workload and are shared by the entire workforce. This program has effectively decreased an already low accident rate and will make long-term sustainability possible. The behavior-based safety process engages the workforce in the implementation and utilization of their own safety initative. The process is based on the simple act of having workers observe other workers and provide feedback on safe and at-risk behaviors. Observations typically take 10 to 15 minutes. Observations are strictly conducted under the conditions that no names are used and no blame is placed. A prospective observer takes 2 days of training on how to perform observations. To date, this behavioral safety program has been effective in further reducing the low accident/injury rate for the division. Most of the division’s workforce has taken observer training, and about half of those trained perform approximately 2500 observations per year on work conducted in NMT Division nuclear facilities.

There are relatively few empirical studies that examine cultural differences in students’ beliefs and use of web-based learning systems. Asian and Western countries have different systems of thought which are rooted in their respective national culture. Although there are a number of theories to explain individuals’ behavior within different cultures, there are few that focused on web-based learning differences. In this study, we investigate the motivational differences among Chinese and Canadian online learners. We enhance our body of knowledge in two respects: moderating and mediating effects of intrinsic motivation in the two groups and the use of the ‘cognitive system of thought’ theory to extract meaning from the results.

The growing need to satisfy the national oil industry demand has required the evaluation and retrofit of the existing pipelines, in addition to create new risers for transportation and distribution of oil products. The current development of offshore structures requires better designs of the risers capable to assuring an optimal level of security. It is common to get situations, in the performance of fixed offshore platforms, in which risers might be found with lowly internal pressure or empty due to maintenance or repairing. This condition could represent an unfavorable situation that might become highly critical given the conditions they are found in. Therefore, this research is focused to study the mechanical behavior and their structural integrity of the pipelines such as, risers with helicoidally welds under combined load (external pressure, bending moment and axial compression). In particular, for safety prediction, the failure modes and uncertainties involved in each loading condition need to be incorporated in the analysis in order to specify the pipelines use thresholds that keep them over acceptable safety levels within their operating lifetimes.

Disinformation and malign influence in Georgia, both internal and external, draws heavily on psychological drivers of human behavior to exploit and manipulate. Essentially, similar to the strategy the advertising world has adopted, disinformation’s strategy is to change perceptions and, ultimately, manipulate social behavior. Its goal is to shift attitudes, perceptions, values, and norms. Georgia’s current adversaries deploy their information operations to undermine the resilience of Georgia’s democratic institutions, its social cohesion and impede the formation of inclusive national identity. While there is broad consensus that disinformation and malign influence has devastating effects on democracy worldwide, it is more challenging to measure the direct impact that disinformation may have in discrediting political opponents or inducing voter apathy. Public opinion surveys provide some insight into whether or not key narratives spread through disinformation have taken root – which appears to be the case – but they are imprecise in measuring to what extent the disinformation efforts have indeed contributed to their prevalence and how.

Many false statements in connection with COVID-19 have fueled a number of rumors and conspiracy theories in the world. Politicians tend to use complicated technical systems and information technologies in order to influence people’s consciousness, feelings and social behavior. Under the guise of taking care of people’s wellbeing they pursue their own objectives. The political leaders have challenged the world with their claims and political statements which hypocritically announced their striving to serve for the sake of the nations, but in fact demonstrating their strong will to benefit from the situation. However, their actions are not treated by people as aggression and don’t lead to open confrontation and aggravation of military and political relations. They paradoxically manage to balance between the truth and falsity, demonstrating ambivalence of what they state in their speeches and appeals to the nations. The basic methods of political discourse ambivalence analysis, used in the article, are: (a) fact-checking method, (b) scientific analysis of the evidence, (c) peer-reviewed studies and the others. There has been also used a method of logical comparison of three options of political discourse: Political Statement → Fact → Consequence. The analysis of mass media articles, devoted to Covid-19, has helped the author to systematize the elements of political discourse processing (the politicians’ statements for the good of the people) and political cognition (the actual meaning of those actions, which can potentially lead to confrontation between nations). The author is trying to find out the actual reasons of the growing gap between the governments and ordinary people, between nations in the world.

In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires. The ignition of buildings in the WUI is a serious international problem due to large-scale fires in Australia, Greece, Portugal, Russia, and USA. In Russia, where forests occupy a large territory, the WUI fires are a national problem, and the damage to the real sector of the economy is tens and hundreds of million dollars per year.

A program is under way at Argonne National Laboratory to evaluate the resistance of Ni alloys and their welds to environmentally assisted cracking in simulated Light Water Reactor (LWR) coolant environments. This paper focuses on the cracking behavior of Ni-alloy welds in simulated pressurized water reactor (PWR) environment at 290–350°C. Crack growth tests have been conducted on both field- and laboratory-produced welds. The results are compared with the existing crack-growth-rate (CGR) data for Ni-alloy welds to determine the relative susceptibility of specific Ni-alloy welds to environmentally enhanced cracking. To analyze the CGRs, a superposition model was used to establish the individual contributions of mechanical fatigue, corrosion fatigue, and stress corrosion cracking.

Proverbs are important data depicting the traditional culture of each nation. Vietnamese proverbs, dated thousands of years ago, are an immense valuable treasure of experience which the Vietnamese people desire to pass to the younger generations. This paper aims to explore the unique and diversified world of intelligence and spirits of the Vietnamese through a condensed and special literary genre, as well as a traditional value of the nation (Nguyen Xuan Kinh 2013, Tran Ngoc Them 1996, Le Chi Que and Ngo Thi Thanh Quy 2014). Through an interdisciplinary approach, from an anthropological point of view, approaching proverbs we will open up a vast treasure of knowledge and culture of all Vietnamese generations. The study has examined over 16,000 Vietnamese proverbs and analysed three groups expressing Vietnamese people’s behaviors toward nature, society and their selves, and compared them with English and Japanese proverbs. The research has attempted to explore the beauty of Vietnamese language, cultural values and the souls and personalities of Vietnam. Approaching Vietnamese proverbs under the interdisciplinary perspective of language, culture and literature is a new research direction in the field of Social Sciences and Humanity in Vietnam. From these viewpoints, it is seen that proverbs have remarkably contributed to the language and culture of Vietnam as well as and constructed to the practice of language use in everyday life which is imaginary, meaningful and effective in communication. Furthermore, the study seeks to inspire the Vietnamese youth’s pride in national identity and to encourage their preservation and promotion for traditional values of the nation in the context of integration and globalisation. In the meantime, it would be favourable to introduce and market the beauty of Vietnamese language, culture and people to the world, encouraging the speakers of other languages to study, explore and understand Vietnam.

Abstract The high temperature environments in proposed advanced reactor designs pose unique challenges for the integrity of structural components. Capabilities to model metals in this environment are being developed in Grizzly, a finite element-based structural simulation code developed at Idaho National Laboratory. To represent the constitutive behavior of metals at high temperatures, Grizzly offers two distinctly different approaches. The first is to use phenomenological engineering models with a unified representation of creep and plasticity. These models are provided through a library developed at Argonne National Laboratory. These models represent the effects of multiple important phenomena on the aspects of the material response important to engineering analysis and are calibrated to engineering-scale material data. The second modeling approach is being developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and is based on mesoscale models that directly account for the effects of material texture. These models directly represent the underlying physical phenomena that affect the engineering-scale material response. Through the use of data analytics, reduced order models based on the mesoscale models have been developed. These models can be efficiently used in engineering calculations, while faithfully representing the behavior of the high fidelity mesocale models. This paper provides brief summaries of both modeling approaches, and demonstrates their application on a common set of bench-mark problems to assess their applicability to component-level simulations.

Being able to follow the chain of contagion of COVID-19 is important to help save lives and control the epidemic without sustained costly lockdowns. This is especially relevant in Latin America, where economic contractions have already been the largest in the regions history. Given the high rates of transmission of COVID-19, relying only in manual contact tracing might be infeasible. Acceptability and uptake of contact tracing apps with exposure notifications is key for the implementation the “test, trace and treat” triad. In the first study of its kind in Latin America, we find that for a nationally representative sample of 10 countries, an opt-out regime with automatic installation significantly increases the probability of acceptance of such apps in almost 22 p.p. compared to an opt-in regime with voluntary installation. This triples the size and is of opposite sign of the effect found in Europe and the United States. We see that an opt-out regime is more effective in increasing acceptability in South America compared to Central America and Mexico; for those who claim not to trust the national government; and for those who do not use their smartphones for financial transactions. The severity of the pandemic at the place of residence does not seem to affect the effectiveness of the opt-out regime versus an opt-in one, but feeling personally at risk does increase the willingness to accept contact tracing apps with exposure notifications in general. These results can shed light on the use of default options in public health in the context of a pandemic in Latin America.

The objective of this study was to track trends in the signs of higher-quality addiction treatment as defined by the National Institute on Drug Abuse, the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Addiction, and the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. We analyzed the National Survey of Substance Abuse Treatment Services from 2007 through 2017 to determine the percent of facilities having the characteristics of higher quality. We analyzed the percent by state and over time. • We found improvements between 2007 and 2017 on most measures, but performance on several measures remained low. • Most programs reported providing evidence-based behavioral therapies. • Half or fewer facilities offered medications for opioid use disorder; mental health assessments; testing for hepatitis C, HIV, and sexually transmitted diseases; self-help groups; employment assistance; and transportation assistance. • There was significant state-level variation across the measures.

This report summarizes the results from the twelfth year of a national public opinion survey asking U.S. adults questions related to their views on federal transportation taxes. A nationally-representative sample of 2,516 respondents completed the online survey from February 5 to 23, 2021. The questions test public opinions about raising the federal gas tax rate, replacing the federal gas tax with a new mileage fee, and imposing a mileage fee just on commercial travel. In addition to asking directly about support for these tax options, the survey collected data on respondents’ views on the quality of their local transportation system, their priorities for federal transportation spending, their knowledge about gas taxes, their views on privacy and equity matters related to mileage fees, travel behavior, and standard sociodemographic variables. This large set of variables is used to identify personal characteristics and opinions correlated with support for the tax options. Key findings include that large majorities supported transportation improvements across modes and wanted to see the federal government work towards making the transportation system well maintained, safe, and equitable, as well as to reduce the system’s impact on climate change. Findings related to gas taxes include that only 2% of respondents knew that the federal gas tax rate had not been raised in more than 20 years, and 71% of respondents supported increasing the federal gas tax by 10 cents per gallon if the revenue would be dedicated to maintenance. With respect to mileage fees, roughly half of respondents supported some form of mileage fee, whether that was assessed on all travel or just on commercial travel, 62% believe that low-income drivers should pay a reduced mileage fee rate, and 52% think that electric vehicles should pay a lower rate than gas and diesel vehicles. The analysis of trends across the survey series, which has run from 2010 to 2011, shows that support for both higher gas taxes and a hypothetical new mileage fee has risen slowly but steadily, and Americans’ experience with COVID over the past year has not disrupted those trends. Finally, support for the tax and fee options varies mostly by most personal characteristics, but there are frequently large differences correlated with age, community type, and political affiliation.

This project aims to appraise evidence of the effectiveness of various practices on reducing stress, anxiety, and depression among parents of infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The project contains six research articles from both national and international journals. Study designs include one meta-analysis, one randomized controlled trial, one small scale randomized controlled trial, one prospective phase lag cohort study, on pretest-posttest study, and one mixed-methods pretest-posttest study. Recommendations for effective interventions were based on best evidence discovered through quality appraisal and study outcomes. All interventions, except for educational programs and Kangaroo Care, resulted in a statistically significant reduction of either stress, anxiety, and/ or depression. Family centered care and mindfulness-based intervention reduced all barriers of interest. There is strong and high-quality evidence for the effect of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy on depression, moderate evidence for the effect of activity-based group therapy on anxiety, and promising evidence for the effect of HUG Your Baby on stress.

Evasion of labor market regulations in middle income countries is systemic. This is generally known as informality. In Latin America, where less than 50% of workers are registered with social security, this is a permanent phenomenon and encompasses a variety of economic realities ranging from subsistence self-employment to evasion of certain regulations including social security contributions. In this study we analyze the role of enforcement in curbing informality in large formal firms in Peru, where informality levels are around 70%. Through the Peruvian National Labor Control Superintendence (SUNAFIL) we randomly sent 697 letters to formal Peruvian firms of more than 50 workers, indicating their obligation to enroll workers in social insurance systems (health and pensions). Two types of letters were sent, one with a deterrence message and one emphasizing the benefits of formalization. One year after the letters were sent, we found a positive and statistically significant effect on the number of workers enrolled in social security (9.8% on average). Only strict deterrence messages had a significant impact, and only in very large firms. This evidence suggests that there is room for improvement in compliance with labor regulations through more proactive monitoring and behavioral tools such as reminders, but effects could be concentrated in the largest firms.

This paper aims to provide evidence on the effects of fiscal rules on public investment, fiscal results and growth in Costa Rica and Panama. First, we find that the budget formulation process and the political economy behind the adoption and compliance of fiscal rules explain that Panama has a bias to create and sequentially pile up rules, while Costa Rica has a tendency not to comply with them. Second, a retrospective analysis of the 2018 fiscal rules in both nations finds asymmetric effects on the fiscal results. In Panama it is difficult to separate the effect of fiscal rule designs on public investment; and, in Costa Rica, the application of the fiscal rule will decrease public investment, if the debt to GDP ratio exceeds 60 percent and current expenditure crowds out capital expenditure. Two lessons emerge. First, an effective fiscal rule compliance requires time consistent institutions, solid monitoring, enforcement schemes and improving the quality of public financial management systems. Second, it is necessary to review the design of fiscal rules in both countries to ensure they are investment and growth friendly.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Most-at-risk populations (MARPS), including men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs), represent only 1 percent of Nigeria’s population yet account for 38 percent of new HIV infections. Despite their elevated risk, MSM and IDUs are less likely than the general population to access HIV prevention and sexual health services because of stigmatization. There is a dearth of data on prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among MSM and IDUs because their behaviors make them difficult to be reached programmatically and engaged in research. While the need for HIV and STI prevalence data is clear, there is also a need to improve the quality and reliability of behavioral data collected for national surveillance, where these stigmatized subpopulations may underreport sensitive behaviors that put them most at risk. As noted in this fact sheet, computer-based interviewing systems are becoming an accepted alternative to face-to-face interviews, providing an efficient and replicable research tool for collecting sensitive behavioral data.

Most-at-risk populations (MARPS), including men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs), represent 1 percent of Nigeria’s population yet account for 38 percent of new HIV infections. Despite their elevated risk, MSM and IDUs are less likely than the general population to access HIV prevention and sexual health services because of stigmatization. There is a dearth of data on prevalence of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among MSM and IDUs because their behaviors make them difficult to be reached programmatically and engaged in research. While the need for HIV and STI prevalence data is clear, there is also a need to improve the quality and reliability of behavioral data collected for national surveillance, where these stigmatized subpopulations may underreport sensitive behaviors that put them most at risk. This technical report provides details of a study that sought to determine the prevalence of HIV and STIs and sexual and injecting risk behaviors in MSM and male IDUs, and determine if Audio Computer-Assisted Self Interviews provide more accurate reporting of risk behaviors than face-to-face interviewing.

Effective programs that avert new HIV infections among sex workers and their partners, and hence the general population, are critical components of national HIV-prevention strategies. Prevention efforts have frequently relied on interventions that reach members of these vulnerable groups as individuals, such as condom promotion and STI management. Now, many researchers and program implementers are increasingly turning to “environmental-structural” interventions that address the physical, social, and political contexts in which individual behavior takes place. A recent Horizons study conducted jointly with two Dominican NGOs—Centro de Orientación e Investigación Integral and Centro de Promoción e Solidaridad Humana—and the National Program for the Control of STDs and AIDS assessed the impact of two environmental-structural models in reducing HIV-related risk among female sex workers in the Dominican Republic and compared their cost-effectiveness. As detailed in this brief, the models, built on years of experience gained from sex worker peer education programs, drew from the strengths of both community solidarity and government policy initiatives and engaged community members in both program and policy development.