Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Natural growth rate'

This Thesis contains four original essays that have been devoted to the study of different elements of the hypothesis of endogeneity of the natural rate of growth. The theoretical framework of the Thesis is presented in Chapter 1. In it, we explore various elements that are of utmost importance in order to understand the hypothesis of endogeneity and that have been generally overlooked by the literature. The four empirical essays presented in Chapters 2 to 5 explore different aspects of the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in a sample of thirteen Latin American countries during the period 1981-2011. The first two empirical essays test the hypothesis of endogeneity using new specifications and various econometric techniques. The results indicate that the natural rate of growth is endogenous to the actual rate of growth, so that the long-run economic growth rate presents sensitivity both in the upward and downward directions in the majority of countries of study. We also find evidence that suggests that expansions are more important than recessions in the sample of Latin American countries. Chapter 4 tries to: 1) estimate a time-varying natural rate of growth; and 2) measure the sensitivity of the latter with respect to its individual components: the rate of growth of labour productivity and the rate of growth of labour force. The results show that the natural rate of growth is more sensitive to labour force growth in the sample of Latin American countries. Finally, the fifth essay studies the interactions between the individual components of the natural rate of growth and the individual components of the rate of growth of aggregate demand. The empirical results show that the rate of growth of labour productivity is more sensitive to the different components of the rate of growth of aggregate demand. However, we find mixed evidence regarding which component of the rate of growth of aggregate demand is more relevant, so that it is not possible to derive a single conclusion that encompasses all the Latin American countries of study. All in all, the present research finds both theoretical elements and empirical evidence that support the hypothesis of endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in Latin America during the period 1981-2011.

The power of natural disasters to significantly and drastically alter the lives of the people they touch is vast, and the response rate of the provided aid can be the difference between a successful recovery and not. This study examines the relationship between natural disasters and volunteerism. The analysis makes use of panel data measurements on volunteer rate and volunteer hours per resident as well as FEMA measurements of major natural disasters from 2005 – 2012. I find that states that experience a natural disaster in the current year experience a significant and positive increase in volunteer rate in the year following the disaster. The findings highlight the importance of policy focused on harnessing volunteer labor in the wake of natural disasters.

De acordo com León-Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002), o presente trabalho se propõe a testar a endogeneidade da taxa natural de crescimento para um conjunto amplo de países, no sentido do crescimento de longo prazo ser determinado pela demanda. Econometricamente, a principal hipótese a ser testada é a presença de não linearidade na Lei de Okun, que implica na existência de duas taxas naturais, cada uma correspondendo a um regime de crescimento. Utilizando dados anuais para o período de 1980 a 2007 e dados trimestrais para o intervalo entre 1980 e 2011, os resultados corroboram a hipótese de endogeneidade quando aplicada a metodologia proposta por LLT. Esta evidência se repete ao definir exogenamente os regimes de crescimento pelos métodos de Markov-Switching e threshold autoregressive regression (TAR) para os dados anuais, no entanto, para os dados trimestrais há indicações de endogeneidade e exogeneidade da taxa natural de crescimento.
Following León-Ledesma and Thirlwall (2002), this master\'s thesis aims to examine the sensitivity of the natural growth rate to the actual growth rate for a broad set of countries, based on demand-led growth theory. The main hypothesis being tested is the presence of non-linearities in Okun\'s Law, which means the existence of two natural growth rates, each corresponding to a growth regime. Using annual data over the period 1980-2007 and quarterly data over the period 1980-2011, the results support the idea that natural growth rate is dependent of the actual growth rate when applying LLT\'s methodology. This evidence repeats when establishing exogenously the regimes of growth by using Markov-Switching and threshold autoregressive regression (TAR) for the annual data, however for quarterly data this is less straightforward, having indication of endogenous and exogenous natural growth rate.

Growth rate and flowering time are agriculturally important traits that are linked to fitness, productivity and reproductive success of plants. To study the genetic basis for natural variation in growth rate and flowering time between local accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana, hybrids were produced between fast growing / late flowering and slow growing / early flowering parents. F3 and F5 hybrid families were grown under a range of conditions – under a constant controlled environment, outside over the winter and outside in spring and early summer. Growth rates were estimated from repeated images of rosettes. Flowering time, as number of leaves to flower, was also recorded both in control and natural conditions for F5 lines. Damage by slugs and stress-induced production of anthocyanin pigments were also recorded for plants grown outside. Broad-sense heritability estimates were higher for F5 families than F3, in which more loci will segregate, and ranged from 48% to 89%. No significant correlation between growth rates under different environments was observed in most cases for F3 populations, however significant correlations were detected for F5 families outside and under controlled conditions, suggesting that same genes can affect growth rate in more than one environment. The genotypes of F3 families were determined at thirty-nine SSLP (simple sequence length polymorphism) loci and used in regression with phenotype data to search for quantitative trait loci (QTL). Significant QTLs were detected in F3 families for growth rate, flowering time and anthocyanin production, but not for herbivore damage. To confirm QTL detected in the F3 and to detect additional loci, bulk segregant analysis was carried out in F5 families grown under different conditions. Potentially linked markers were tested further in individual F5 plants and QTL mapped on a finer scale in F5 families that remained heterozygous for candidate regions. VIP5 and LDL1 were selected as potential candidate genes for flowering time variation. These genes were sequenced for two parental alleles. A transposon insertion and 5’ UTR deletion were found in the LDL1 allele from the late flowering parent and SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) were observed throughout the gene. However both alleles appeared to be expressed at similar levels. Transgenic lines have been produced carrying the LDL1 allele from the early flowering parent (4D1) in the background of the later flowering parent (11C1). This work is on-going and will hopefully reveal whether LDL1 underlies differences in flowering behaviour seen between 11C1 and 4D1.

It has been shown that fish of both marine and limnetic origin display increased growth at intermediate salinities. Furthermore, it has been shown that fish in the brackish water Baltic Sea are smaller compared to their conspecifics in the Atlantic, where salinities are higher. Also, it has been suggested that fish produce more eggs at the edges of their distribution range as a response to inferior environmental conditions. In this study, I investigated if there is a trade-off in energy investment between somatic and gonad growth in relation to salinity. To do this, I performed a growth experiment and a literature review. In the growth experiment, juvenile turbot were reared in salinities of 6, 10.5, 15 and 30 ‰. I found that turbot juveniles from Gotland grew equally well in all salinities investigated. In the literature review, data from the Baltic Sea was tested against data from the North and Black Seas. Data of turbot total energy investment (somatic and gonad growth) was analyzed. I found that energy content at age differed significantly between the populations investigated with lower energy content for the Baltic Sea populations. Also, growth rate in relation to energy content (size) was analyzed for the different populations, but no difference for growth rate in relation to energy content occurred. The result of the analysis of growth rate indicates that the change in allocated energy is the same, regardless of population, and thus that fish from the Baltic Sea display growth rates similar to those of other populations. It was also established that energy investment in gonads increased along with decreasing salinities. The smaller size of turbot in the Baltic Sea is therefore probably the result of a difference in size at maturity, possibly because less energy is allocated to somatic growth and more energy to start producing eggs. It is probably also the consequence of that the Baltic Sea turbot, post sexual maturity, continue to invest more energy in egg production.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and ingestive behavior of beef heifers grazing natural grassland managed under rotational grazing according to two rest periods in spring and summer. The treatments were two intervals between grazing 375 and 750 DD (degree days), based on thermal cumulative average for leaf expansion of native grasses belonging to two functional groups. The experimental design was randomized complete block design with two treatments and three replications. The experiment was conducted from November 2011 to April 2012. The test animals were Angus beef heifers, with an initial mean age of 12 months and initial weight 185.2 ± 17.4 kg. The ingestive behavior variables evaluated were grazing time, rumination and rest, and daily number and duration of meals, bite rate, number of stations visited per minute, number of steps between feeding stations, length of stay at the station. All variables of ingestive behavior were similar between treatments. However, grazing time and biting rate ranged between assessments. The different intervals between grazing on natural pasture did not influence the patterns of ingestive behavior of heifers. The variables of pasture mass of green leaf and stalk weight in different time periods evaluated the influence of grazing, ruminating and bite rate. Forage mass was higher in the 750 DD treatment, however, the mass of leaf blades were similar among treatments. The highest average daily gains and gains per area were observed in 375 DD treatment. In one evaluation period there was weight loss in animals of both treatments, that was attributed to a drought occurred and the lowest mass of leaf blades of the period. The average stocking density was similar between treatments. The treatment of lower defoliation interval presented greater individual gain.
O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desempenho produtivo e o comportamento ingestivo de novilhas de corte em pastagem natural manejada sob pastoreio rotativo em função de dois intervalos de descanso na primavera-verão. Os tratamentos avaliados foram dois intervalos entre pastoreios 375 e 750 GD (graus-dia), baseados na soma térmica média acumulada para a expansão foliar de gramíneas nativas pertencentes a dois grupos funcionais. O delineamento utilizado foi em blocos completamente casualizados com dois tratamentos e três repetições de área. O experimento foi conduzido de novembro de 2011 a abril de 2012. Os animais testes foram novilhas de corte, da raça Angus, com idade média inicial de 12 meses e peso inicial 185,2 ± 17,4 kg. As variáveis do comportamento ingestivo avaliadas foram o tempo de pastejo, ruminação e ócio, além de número diário e duração das refeições, taxa de bocados, número de estações visitadas por minuto, número de passos entre estações alimentares, tempo de permanência na estação. Todas as variáveis do comportamento ingestivo foram semelhantes entre os tratamentos avaliados. No entanto, o tempo de pastejo e a taxa de bocados variaram entre as avaliações. Os diferentes intervalos entre pastoreios em pastagem natural não influenciou os padrões de comportamento ingestivo das novilhas. As variáveis do pasto MLFV e massa de colmos nos diferentes períodos avaliados influenciaram nos tempos de pastejo, ruminação e taxa de bocados. A massa de forragem foi superior no tratamento 750 GD, no entanto, a massa de lâminas foliares foi semelhante entre os tratamentos. Os maiores ganhos médios diários e ganhos por área foram observados no tratamento 375 GD. Em um dos períodos de avaliação houve perda de peso nos animais de ambos os tratamentos, que foi atribuído ao déficit hídrico ocorrido e a menor massa de lâminas foliares do período. As cargas médias foram semelhantes entre os tratamentos. O tratamento de menor intervalo entre desfolhas proporcionou aos animais maior ganho individual.

Esta tese tem como objetivo estudar a questão do desemprego a partir de três abordagens distintas: teórica, empírica e de história das idéias. Uma tese com essas características se faz relevante justamente por apresentar diferentes abordagens científicas sobre um tema tão caro à sociedade e à ciência econômica. Na abordagem de história das idéias, concluiu-se que foram os trabalhos de Lucas (1972a, 1972b) que, de fato, estabilizaram o conceito de \"taxa natural de desemprego\" na literatura econômica do pós-guerra, através da introdução da hipótese das expectativas racionais em um arcabouço de equilíbrio geral. É mostrado, através da análise de sua correspondência, no final dos anos 1960, que sua pesquisa sobre o tema estava, na verdade, intimamente ligada à pesquisa de Phleps, ao mesmo tempo em que não tinha conexão com a pesquisa de Friedman. No capítulo teórico, foi construído um modelo teórico de crescimento com restrição externa à la Thirlwall em que a taxa e crescimento da participação da força de trabalho emerge como a variável endógena que iguala a taxa de crescimento de longo prazo da oferta à taxa de crescimento de longo prazo da demanda. No capítulo empírico, foi mostrado através da evolução da razão saldo em transações correntes/PIB que a restrição de equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos teve impacto no aumento de probabilidade do trabalhador formal transitar para o emprego informal, para o emprego por conta própria, para o desemprego e para fora da PEA, durante os anos 1980 e 1990, no Brasil. Sendo assim, esta tese espera ter cumprido seu papel de contribuir para com a literatura econômica sobre o desemprego através de análises originais em cada tipo de abordagem apresentada, sinalizando, assim, a riqueza da ciência econômica e valorizando esta tese, também, por explorar a pluralidade metodológica e a profundidade analítica.
The aim of this thesis is to study the unemployment issue from three different approaches: theoretical, empirical and history of ideas. A thesis with these features is relevant because it presents different scientific approaches to an important subject to society and to Economics. In the history of ideas\' approach, this thesis concluded that the works of Lucas (1972a, 1972b) stabilized the concept of \"natural rate of unemployment\" in the post-war economic literature through the introduction of rational expectations hypothesis into a general equilibrium framework. It is shown, through Lucas\'s correspondence in the end of the 1960\'s, that his research on the subject was, in fact, closely related to Phelps\'s research but not related to Friedman\'s research. In the theoretical approach, it was built a theoretical growth model with external constraint, à la Thirlwall, in which the rate o growth of labor force participation emerges as the endogenous variable that equalizes the long run rate of growth of supply with the long run rate of growth of demand. In the empirical approach, it was shown through the evolution of the current account/GDP ratio that balance of payments equilibrium constraint had impact in the raise of the probability of workers in formal jobs to move to informal Jobs, to self-employment jobs, to unemployment and to inactivity, during the 1980\'s and 1990\'s, in Brazil. Thus, this thesis hopes to have accomplished its role in contributing to economic literature on unemployment through original analysis in each kind of approach presented, showing the richness of Economics and, at the same time, increasing the value of this thesis for exploring the methodological plurality and the analytical deepness.

Large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy technologies is important for counteracting anthropogenic climate change and achieving universal energy access. This thesis explores potential growth rates of technologies necessary to reach a more sustainable global energy system, the material and energy flows required to commission these technologies, and potential future availability of the required resources. These issues are investigated in five papers. Potential future growth rates of wind energy and solar photovoltaics, and the associated material requirements are explored, taking the expected service life of these technologies into account. Methodology for assessing net energy return and natural resource use for wind energy systems are analyzed. Potential future availability of lithium and phosphate rock are also investigated. Estimates of energy and materials required for technologies such as wind energy and photovoltaics vary, and depend on the assumptions made and methods used. Still, it is clear that commissioning of low-carbon technologies on the scale required to reach and sustain a low-carbon energy system in coming decades requires significant quantities of both bulk materials and scarcer resources. For some technologies, such as thin film solar cells and electric vehicles with lithium-ion batteries, availability of materials could become an issue for potential growth rates. Future phosphate rock production could become highly dependent on few countries, and potential political, social and environmental aspects of this should be investigated in more detail. Material and energy flows should be considered when analyzing growth rates of low-carbon technologies. Their estimated service life can indicate sustainable growth rates of technologies, as well as when materials are available for end-of-life recycling. Resource constrained growth curve models can be used to explore future production of natural resources. A higher disaggregation of these models can enable more detailed analysis of potential constraints. This thesis contributes to the discussion on how to create a more sustainable global energy system, but the methods to assess current and future energy and material flows, and availability of natural resources, should be further developed in the future.

Tendências atuais em restauração evidenciam a importância de propiciar o retorno das funções ecossistêmicas e ecológicas. Porém muitas áreas possuem baixo potencial para reestabelecimento de processos ecológicos devido à perda da resiliência, o que faz da restauração ecológica um processo desafiador. Para o sucesso das atividades propostas, é essencial que no decorrer do projeto os sistemas sejam capazes de retomar sua trajetória sucessional e dinâmica temporal, sem necessidade de futuras intervenções humanas. O objetivo desta tese foi avaliar os processos iniciais de restauração ecológica em áreas degradadas por mineração de carvão, através da análise de trajetórias sucessionais envolvendo: (1) taxas de crescimento e mortalidade de mudas nativas introduzidas e sua relação com atributos funcionais de plantas; (2) chuva de sementes associada, ou não, ao uso de poleiros artificiais e sua relação com regenerantes de espécies lenhosas; e (3) regeneração natural e sua relação com fatores abióticos e bióticos. Mudas de espécies nativas introduzidas sob condições limitantes (devido ao alto nível de impacto) apresentaram diferentes performances e relações com atributos, por vezes distintas do esperado para espécies sob condições naturais. A limitação de sementes nas áreas em restauração pode ser, potencialmente, reduzida pelo uso de poleiros artificiais, aumentando especialmente sementes de espécies não-pioneiras e zoocóricas. No entanto, não foi verificada relação entre a chuva de sementes e a taxa de recrutamento. Fatores abióticos, relacionados à composição química do solo, e fatores bióticos, como a presença de gramíneas exóticas, foram as variáveis com maior influência negativa sobre a regeneração natural. Este estudo evidencia a possibilidade do retornar do processo de sucessão natural em áreas de mata ciliar que foram profundamente alteradas por mineração de carvão, em um tempo relativamente curto. Entretanto, recomendamos o uso de objetivos realísticos e intermediários, bem como monitoramentos detalhados nas fases iniciais.
In current projects of ecological restoration, the return of ecosystem functions and natural processes is an important aim. However, many areas have lost their resilience due the high damage they have been submitted to, and this makes the ecological restoration a challenging process. For the success of the proposed activities, it is essential that during the project, the ecosystem can return to its successional trajectory without necessity of strong human intervention in the future. The goal of this thesis was to evaluate the initial processes of ecological restoration in areas severally degraded by coal mining, through analyses of successional trajectories regarding: (1) growth and mortality rates of planted samplings and their relationship to functional traits; (2) seed rain, associated or not, to perches and its relationship to natural regeneration of woody species; and (3) natural regeneration of woody species and its relationship to abiotic and biotic variables. Planted saplings under limited conditions (due the high impact of mining) showed to have distinct performance and trait relationships, somewhat different to the expected for species under natural conditions. The study indicates that the limitation of seeds in areas under ecological restoration can be reduced by the use of perches, increasing especially the number of seeds of non-pioneer and zoocoric species. Nevertheless, we did not found a relation between seed rain and recruitment rate. Soil chemistry (abiotic variable) and the cover of exotic grasses (biotic variable) were the variables with the strongest negative impact on natural regeneration. We conclude that it is possible to return to successional processes in areas of riparian forest severely damaged by coal mining activities in a relatively short time, but recommend the use of realistic, intermediate restoration goals and detailed monitoring in early restoration phases.

Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira
A taxa de crescimento económico diz respeito à quantidade de riqueza adicional que o país foi capaz de reunir através da produção de bens e prestação de serviços em relação ao período de tempo anterior. Neste trabalho propõe-se responder à pergunta “qual o impacto dos recursos naturais no crescimento económico de Timor-Leste?”. Após análise extensiva de papers e de consulta de dados, considera-se a priori que existe uma correlação negativa entre o crescimento económico e os recursos naturais, no entanto, existe uma certa ambiguidade na direção causal desta relação. O modelo econométrico que se estimou no presente estudo, entre 1995 a 2010, permite concluir que as variáveis com maior capacidade de influenciar “o impacto dos recursos naturais no crescimento económico de Timor-Leste” são a dependência da agricultura (de forma negativa), investimento em percentagem do PIB (de forma positiva), o rendimento bruto nacional (de forma positiva) e o nível de educação (de forma positiva). Espera-se que este trabalho possa ajudar a que as pessoas tomem melhores decisões nos aspetos respeitantes à dependência dos recursos naturais.
Economic growth rate concerns the quantity of additional wealth that the country was able to generate through production of goods and provision of services in the previous time period. The goal of this study is to answer the question “what impact do natural resources have on the economic growth of Timor-Leste?”. After an extensive analysis of relevant papers and data, the a priori result is that there is a negative correlation between economic growth and natural resources, however, there is a certain ambiguity concerning the causal direction of said relationship. The econometric model estimated in this study, comprising the years between 1995 and 2010, allows the conclusion that the variables which are more capable of influencing “the impact of natural resources on the economic growth of Timor-Leste” are agricultural dependency (negatively), investment as a percentage of GDP (positively), national gross income (positively) and level of education (positively). It is hoped that the present study will contribute to better the decision-making concerning de dependency of natural resources.

This paper uses the semi-structural Laubach and Williams model to estimate the time- varying natural rate of interest by Kalman filter and Maximum Likelihood method, applying it for the first time to Czech data. The results show a significant decrease of the natural interest rate during the past decade, which constitutes further evidence for the wide-spread notion that structural factors in many countries have shifted after the global financial crisis. The paper's contribution is mainly represented by preparing ground for further research. It concludes that the basic version of the Laubach and Williams model is not optimal for the Czech environment and suggests appropriate adjustments to it. It discusses and analyzes sources of potential problems with the estimation, notably the issues of singularity and model specification. Eventually the paper concludes that due to the low significance of results and the uncertainty of gains and losses related to a policy switch, the best reaction of the central bank would be to keep the current regime and inflation target. JEL Classification C32, E43, E52, O40 Keywords natural real interest rate, inflation target, inflation measurement, monetary policy, Kalman filter, trend growth Author's e-mail lucie.scheer@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail tomas.holub@fsv.cuni.cz v

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1994.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 35-41).