Academic literature on the topic 'Negative capability'

In late December 1817, when attempting to name ‘what quality went to form a Man of Achievement especially in Literature’, John Keats coined the term ‘negative capability’, which he glossed as ‘being in uncertainties, Mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after fact & reason’. Since then negative capability has continued to shape assessments of and responses to Keats’s work, while also surfacing in other contexts ranging from contemporary poetry to punk rock. The essays collected in this volume, taken as a whole, account for some of the history of negative capability, and propose new models and directions for its future in scholarly and popular discourse. The book does not propose a particular understanding of negative capability from among the many options (radical empathy, annihilation of self, philosophical skepticism, celebration of ambiguity) as the final word on the topic; rather, the book accounts for the multidimensionality of negative capability. Essays treat negative capability’s relation to topics including the Christmas pantomime, psychoanalysis, Zen Buddhism, nineteenth-century medicine, and Philip Pullman’s His Dark Materials trilogy. Describing the ‘poetical Character’ Keats notes that ‘it enjoys light and shade; it lives in gusto, be it foul or fair, high or low, rich or poor, mean or elevated’. This book, too, revels in such multiplicity.

Abstract This paper presents new experimental evidences on the capability of a novel electrochemical corrosion monitoring sensor, which was recently conceived, for measuring localized corrosion under disbonded pipeline coatings. The sensor's design includes an artificial crevice for simulating the conditions developed under disbonded coatings and an electrode array for measuring current density distribution over its surface. The sensor capabilities were further evaluated by studying the dependency of corrosion patterns and current density distribution on the Cathodic Protection (CP) potential applied upon immersion in an aqueous environment. At the less negative CP potential, a good correlation was found between the inhomogeneous corrosion distribution under the disbonded coating as measured by the sensor and actual metal loss and corrosion attack observed on its surface at the end of the test. At more negative CP potentials no corrosion was detected or observed on the sensor's surface. In addition, characteristic changes in the cathodic current distribution at different CP potentials illustrated the possibility of employing the sensor to obtain valuable feedback on the performance of a given CP setup, without requiring its interruption or compensation of IR-drops. Furthermore, the sensor's capability to detect some of the effects of overprotection were shown at the most negative CP potential applied.

Abstract Studies have shown that ensuring gender balance in the workforce and promoting high-performing women into executive positions improves the profitability and market strength of U.S. companies. Increasing the number of women studying and ultimately working in Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) jobs would increase innovation and the performance of teams in the workplace. A challenge to achieving this centers on the relatively low proportion of women studying STEM fields and working in STEM jobs which research shows is constrained by negative stereotypes, individual assessment of capability, and personal bias. Women make up 50% of the nation's workforce, but only 25% of the STEM workforce. As with men, women in STEM jobs make higher salaries than their non-STEM counterparts, but women in STEM jobs continue to experience a gender-based wage gap. This paper will also discuss proven methods companies can take adopt to hire and retain women in STEM job and actions individuals can take to encourage the women around them to access in STEM fields.

The capability to minimize vibratory loads with trailing edge flaps on a helicopter rotor is explored in this paper. Predictions with computational structural dynamics (CSD) codes coupled to a lifting-line (LL) aerodynamic model and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code are compared. Open and closed-loop controls are explored with both aerodynamic models. Moderate nonlinearities in the CFD/CSD simulation are shown to be present by illustrating that the extracted T-matrix, from open-loop actuation, varies with actuation phase. For example, for a purely linear system, identical T-matrices would be obtained from open-loop phase sweeps with different combinations of positive/negative cosine and sine inputs. However different T-matrices were obtained for these actuation phase permutations for the CFD/CSD simulation. The predictions showed that trailing-edge flaps are capable of simultaneously reducing vibratory thrust, pitch and roll moments by 90%. The rotor performance (L/De) was shown to be reduced for flap inputs which minimize vibratory hub loads; however the predicted performance reduction is less for CFD/CSD than LL/CSD simulations. Calculations were performed to minimize control loads by reducing 3p-5p push-rod loads.

The capability to minimize vibratory loads with trailing edge flaps on a helicopter rotor is explored in this paper. Predictions with computational structural dynamics (CSD) codes coupled to a lifting-line (LL) aerodynamic model and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code are compared. Open and closed-loop controls are explored with both aerodynamic models. Moderate nonlinearities in the CFD/CSD simulation are shown to be present by illustrating that the extracted T-matrix, from open-loop actuation, varies with actuation phase. For example, for a purely linear system, identical T-matrices would be obtained from open-loop phase sweeps with different combinations of positive/negative cosine and sine inputs. However different T-matrices were obtained for these actuation phase permutations for the CFD/CSD simulation. The predictions showed that trailing-edge flaps are capable of simultaneously reducing vibratory thrust, pitch and roll moments by 90%. The rotor performance (L/De) was shown to be reduced for flap inputs which minimize vibratory hub loads; however the predicted performance reduction is less for CFD/CSD than LL/CSD simulations. Calculations were performed to minimize control loads by reducing 3p-5p push-rod loads.

Abstract Materials used in flue gas desulfurization systems are expected to be resistant to highly aggressive exposures. This does not always happen. Premature material degradation frequently results in unplanned outages, lost production, unsafe conditions and in some severe cases, the necessity to replace large portions of facilities well before their designed obsolescence. Understanding the exposure environments and operating conditions in conjunction with a materials capability is key to proper materials selection. Understanding the "fine tuning" needs of an alloy may be even more imperative to long term successful application. The need for special alloys to resist the aggressive corrosivity of FGD environments invariably dictates higher alloyed and probably more expensive materials. In order to be cost effective, these materials must perform at a high efficiency level and provide a long service life. The typical broad, generic specifications used to define material composition and mechanical property acceptance levels, may not be sufficient. This presentation will examine the optimization potential of one material, UNS NO8367, a 6% molybdenum containing stainless steel. The alloy has been proven in many environment, but use of optimization techniques may augment its performance. Included will be a review of the positive and negative effects of certain major and minor alloying additions, the response to varied thermal treatments, control of surface depletion and stress levels, and fabrication, with optimization in mind. The items reviewed, will have applicability to other material systems, with some modifications to suit the specific alloy and environments.

This project develops capability for future studies on the effects of nontraditional messages in dynamic message signs on improving driver safety and compliance and avoiding distractions. An online survey and a driving simulation game were designed, and a pilot run was conducted with a small number of students in the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign. Survey responses and simulation data were analyzed to reveal preliminary findings on notable effectiveness across different types of messages (e.g., humorous, emotionless, negative). The pilot study also provides guidelines and recommendations for running a large-scale survey and simulation game in the future.

Work is important. For most, it provides a host of positive emotions as well as the opportunity for social contact and the financial support that enables us to enrich our lives in other ways. If we can no longer work due to ill health, requirement to look after a loved one or following capability or conduct proceedings, the personal impact can be devastating. Even when taking time out of the workplace for positive life enhancing reasons, such as having a baby or a career break to pursue another interest, there can still be a negative impact on knowledge, skills, self-esteem, confidence and finances. An absence of 3 months or more is likely to significantly affect skills and knowledge, and an absence of 2 years or more is generally accepted as a period when formal retraining will be required. Returning to work after a prolonged period away is often greeted with a mixture of eagerness and anxiety for the clinician returning and the manager facilitating the process. For anaesthetists, there are additional concerns compared with some other specialties because anaesthesia requires a comprehensive medical knowledge-base, advanced technical skills to be immediately available and the ability to cope with multiple stimuli as well as the stamina to remain vigilant during long quiet periods. Anaesthesia is an intellectually, physically and emotionally demanding specialty. In this high-risk environment, an underperforming anaesthetist may easily harm a patient. Such high stakes mandate a thoughtful and carefully planned return. Even senior colleagues will require support, supervision, assessment, and in some cases further training. Returning colleagues may have obvious physical scars, but there may also be psychological injuries that are hidden. Good communication is key, but sharing important information must be balanced with confidentiality. If the return is tailored to the individual and managed well, colleagues will come back as healthy, safe and productive doctors. If it is done badly, there is the potential for significant harm to both patients and colleagues.

Chemical signaling between beneficial or pathogenic bacteria and plants is a central factor in determining the outcome of plant-microbe interactions. Pectobacterium and Dickeya (soft rot Erwinias) are the major cause of soft rot, stem rot, and blackleg formed on potato and ornamentals, currently with no effective control. Our major aim was to establish and study specific bacterial genes/proteins as targets for anti-virulence compounds, by combining drug design tools and bioinformatics with experimental work. The approach allowed us to identify and test compounds (small molecules) that specifically interfere with the activities of these targets, by this impairing bacterial virulence. Two main targets were selected within the frame of the BARD project. The first is the ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporters and methyl-accepting chemotaxis proteins (MCP) that have been characterized here for the first time in Pectobacteriaceae, and the second is the quorum sensing (QS) machinery of Pectobacterium with its major proteins and in particular, the AHL synthase ExpI that was identified as the preferred target for inhibition. Both systems are strongly associated with bacterial virulence and survival in planta. We found that Pectobacteriaceae, namely Dickeya and Pectobacterium, encode more ABC transporters and MCP in their genomes, compared to other bacteria in the order. For MCP, soft rot Pectobacteriaceae not only contain more than 30 MCP genes per strain, but also have more diverse ligand binding domains than other species in the Enterobacteriales. These findings suggest that both ABC transporters and MCP are important for soft rot Pectobacteriaceae pathogenicity. We now have a selection of mutants in these proteins that may be further explored to understand their direct involvement in virulence. In parallel, we studied the QS central proteins in pectobacteria, the signaling molecule N-acyl-homoserine lactone synthase, ExpI, and the response regulator ExpR, and established their phylogenetic relations within plant pathogenic Gram negative bacteria. Next, these proteins were used for virtual screening of millions of compounds in order to discover new compounds with potential to interfere with the QS machinery. Several natural compounds were tested for their interference with virulence related traits in Pectobacterium and their capability to minimize soft rot infections. Our findings using microcalorimetric binding studies have established for the first time direct interaction between the protein ExpI and two natural ligands, the plant hormone salicylic acid and the volatile compound carvacrol. These results supported a model by which plants interfere with bacterial communication through interkingdom signaling. The collaborative project yielded two research papers and a comprehensive review, which included new computational and bioinformatics data, in Annu. Rev. Phytopathol., the highest ranked journal in phytopathology. Additional two papers are in preparation. In order to transform the fundamental knowledge that have been gained during this collaborative BARD project into agricultural practice, to control soft rot bacteria, we have submitted a continual project.

The hypothalamic melanocortin system plays a central role in the regulation of food consumption and energy homeostasis in mammals. Accordingly, our working hypothesis in this project was that genetic editing of the mc4r gene, encoding Melanocortin Receptor 4 (MC4R), will enhance food consumption, feed efficiency and growth in fish. To test this hypothesis and to assess the utility of mc4r editing for the enhancement of feed efficiency and growth in fish, the following objectives were set: Test the effect of the mc4r-null allele on feeding behavior, growth, metabolism and survival in zebrafish. Generate mc4r-null alleles in tilapia and examine the consequences for growth and survival, feed efficiency and body composition. Generate and examine the effect of naturally-occurring mc4r alleles found in swordfish on feeding behavior, growth and survival in zebrafish. Define the MC4R-mediated and MC4R-independent effects of AgRP by crossing mc4r- null strains with fish lacking AgRP neurons or the agrpgene. Our results in zebrafish did not support our hypothesis. While knockout of the agrpgene or genetic ablation of hypothalamic AgRP neurons led to reduced food intake in zebrafish larvae, knockout (KO) of the mc4r gene not only did not increase the rate of food intake but even reduced it. Since Melanocortin Receptor 3 (MC3R) has also been proposed to be involved in hypothalamic control of food intake, we also tested the effectofmc3r gene KO. Again, contrary to our hypothesis, the rate of food intake decreased. The next step was to generate a double mutant lucking both functional MC3R and MC4R. Again, the double KO exhibited reduced food intake. Thus, the only manipulation within the melanocortin system that affected food intake in consistent with the expected role of the system was seen in zebrafish larvae upon agrpKO. Interestingly, despite the apparent reduced food intake in the larval stage, these fish grow to be of the same size as wildtype fish at the adult stage. Altogether, it seems that there is a compensatory mechanism that overrides the effect of genetic manipulations of the melanocortin system in zebrafish. Under Aim 3, we introduced the Xna1, XnB1l, and XnB2A mutations from the Xiphophorus MC4R alleles into the zebrafish MC4R gene. We hypothesized that these MC4R mutations would act as dominant negative alleles to increase growth by suppressing endogenous MC4R activity. When we examined the activity of the three mutant alleles, we were unable to document any inhibition of a co-transfected wild type MC4R allele, hence we did not introduce these alleles into zebrafish. Since teleost fish possess two agrpgenes we also tested the effect of KO of the agrp2 gene and ablation of the AgRP2 cells. We found that the AgRP2 system does not affect food consumption but may rather be involved in modulating the stress response. To try to apply genetic editing in farmed fish species we turned to tilapia. Injection of exogenous AgRP in adult tilapia induced significant changes in the expression of pituitary hormones. Genetic editing in tilapia is far more complicated than in zebrafish. Nevertheless, we managed to generate one mutant fish carrying a mutation in mc4r. That individual died before reaching sexual maturity. Thus, our attempt to generate an mc4r-mutant tilapia line was almost successful and indicate out non-obvious capability to generate mutant tilapia.

A mature teacher who continuously seeks improvement should be recognised as a professional who has autonomy in conducting their job and has the autonomy to engage in a professional community of practice (Hyslop-Margison and Sears, 2010). In other words, teachers’ engagement in professional development activities should be driven by their own determination rather than extrinsic sources of motivation. In this context, teachers’ self-determination can be defined as a feeling of connectedness with their own aspirations or personal values, confidence in their ability to master new skills, and a sense of autonomy in planning their own professional development path (Stupnisky et al., 2018; Eyal and Roth, 2011; Ryan and Deci, 2000). Previous studies have shown the advantages of providing teachers with autonomy to determine personal and professional improvement. Bergmark (2020) found that giving teachers the opportunity to identify areas of improvement based on teaching experience expanded the ways they think and understand themselves as teachers and how they can improve their teaching. Teachers who plan their own improvement showed a higher level of curiosity in learning and trying out new things. Bergmark (2020) also shows that a continuous cycle of reflection and teaching improvement allows teachers to recognise that the perfect lesson does not exist. Hence, continuous reflection and improvement are needed to shape the lesson to meet various classroom contexts. Moreover, Cheon et al. (2018) found that increased teacher autonomy led to greater teaching efficacy and a greater tendency to adopt intrinsic (relative to extrinsic) instructional goals. In developed countries, teacher autonomy is present and has become part of teachers’ professional life and schools’ development plans. In Finland, for example, the government is responsible for providing resources and services that schools request, while school development and teachers’ professional learning are integrated into a day-to-day “experiment” performed collaboratively by teachers and principals (Niemi, 2015). This kind of experience gives teachers a sense of mastery and boosts their determination to continuously learn (Ryan and Deci, 2000). In low-performing countries, distributing autonomy of education quality improvement to schools and teachers negatively correlates with the countries’ education outcomes (Hanushek et al., 2011). This study also suggests that education outcome accountability and teacher capacity are necessary to ensure the provision of autonomy to improve education quality. However, to have teachers who can meet dynamic educational challenges through continuous learning, de Klerk & Barnett (2020) suggest that developing countries include programmes that could nurture teachers’ agency to learn in addition to the regular content and pedagogical-focused teacher training materials. Giving autonomy to teachers can be challenging in an environment where accountability or performance is measured by narrow considerations (teacher exam score, administrative completion, etc.). As is the case in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, teachers tend to attend training to meet performance evaluation administrative criteria rather than to address specific professional development needs (Dymoke and Harrison, 2006). Generally, the focus of the training relies on what the government believes will benefit their teaching workforce. Teacher professional development (TPD) is merely an assignment for Jakarta teachers. Most teachers attend the training only to obtain attendance certificates that can be credited towards their additional performance allowance. Consequently, those teachers will only reproduce teaching practices that they have experienced or observed from their seniors. As in other similar professional development systems, improvement in teaching quality at schools is less likely to happen (Hargreaves, 2000). Most of the trainings were led by external experts or academics who did not interact with teachers on a day-to-day basis. This approach to professional development represents a top-down mechanism where teacher training was designed independently from teaching context and therefore appears to be overly abstract, unpractical, and not useful for teachers (Timperley, 2011). Moreover, the lack of relevancy between teacher training and teaching practice leads to teachers’ low ownership of the professional development process (Bergmark, 2020). More broadly, in the Jakarta education system, especially the public school system, autonomy was never given to schools and teachers prior to establishing the new TPD system in 2021. The system employed a top-down relationship between the local education agency, teacher training centres, principals, and teachers. Professional development plans were usually motivated by a low teacher competency score or budgeted teacher professional development programme. Guided by the scores, the training centres organised training that could address knowledge areas that most of Jakarta's teachers lack. In many cases, to fulfil the quota as planned in the budget, the local education agency and the training centres would instruct principals to assign two teachers to certain training without knowing their needs. Realizing that the system was not functioning, Jakarta’s local education agency decided to create a reform that gives more autonomy toward schools and teachers in determining teacher professional development plan. The new system has been piloted since November 2021. To maintain the balance between administrative evaluation and addressing professional development needs, the new initiative highlights the key role played by head teachers or principals. This is based on assumption that principals who have the opportunity to observe teaching practice closely could help teachers reflect and develop their professionalism. (Dymoke and Harrison, 2006). As explained by the professional development case in Finland, leadership and collegial collaboration are also critical to shaping a school culture that could support the development of professional autonomy. The collective energies among teachers and the principal will also direct the teacher toward improving teaching, learning, and caring for students and parents (Hyslop-Margison and Sears, 2010; Hargreaves, 2000). Thus, the new TPD system in Jakarta adopts the feature of collegial collaboration. This is considered as imperative in Jakarta where teachers used to be controlled and join a professional development activity due to external forces. Learning autonomy did not exist within themselves. Hence, teachers need a leader who can turn the "professional development regulation" into a culture at schools. The process will shape teachers to do professional development quite autonomously (Deci et al., 2001). In this case, a controlling leadership style will hinder teachers’ autonomous motivation. Instead, principals should articulate a clear vision, consider teachers' individual needs and aspirations, inspire, and support professional development activities (Eyal and Roth, 2011). This can also be called creating a professional culture at schools (Fullan, 1996). In this Note, we aim to understand how the schools and teachers respond to the new teacher professional development system. We compare experience and motivation of different characteristics of teachers.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) provides financial and technicalsupport for infrastructure projects in water and sanitation, irrigation, flood control, transport, and energy, and for development projects in agriculture, urban systems, and natural resources. Many of these projects depend upon water resources and may be affected negatively by climate change and other developments that alter water availability, such as population growth and shifts in land use associated with urbanization, industrial growth, and agricultural practices. Assessing the potential for future changes in water availability is an important step toward ensuring that infrastructure and other development projects meet their operational, financial, and economic goals. It is also important to examine the implications of such projects for the future allocation of available water among competing users and uses to mitigate potential conflict and to ensure such projects are consistent with long-term regional development plans and preservation of essential ecosystem services. As part of its commitment to help member countries adapt to climate change, the IDB is sponsoring work to develop and apply the Regional Water Resources Simulation Model for Latin America and the Caribbean, an integrated suite of watershed modeling tools known as Hydro-BID. Hydro-BID is a highly scalable modeling system that includes hydrology and climate analysis modules to estimate the availability of surface water (stream flows) at the regional, basin, and sub-basin scales. The system includes modules for incorporating the effects of groundwater and reservoirs on surface water flows and for estimating sediment loading. Data produced by Hydro-BID are useful for water balance analysis, water allocation decisions, and economic analysis and decision support tools to help decision-makers make informed choices among alternative designs for infrastructure projects and alternative policies for water resources management. IDB sponsored the development of Hydro-BID and provides the software and basic training free of charge to authorized users; see hydrobidlac.org. The system was developed by RTI International as an adaptation of RTI's proprietary WaterFALL® modeling software, based on over 30 years of experience developing and using the U.S. National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) in support to the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In Phase I of this effort, RTI prepared a working version of Hydro-BID that includes: (1) the Analytical Hydrography Dataset for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC AHD), a digital representation of 229,300 catchments in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean with their corresponding topography, river, and stream segments; (2) a geographic information system (GIS)-based navigation tool to browse AHD catchments and streams with the capability of navigating upstream and downstream; (3) a user interface for specifying the area and period to be modeled and the period and location for which water availability will be simulated; (4) a climate data interface to obtain rainfall and temperature inputs for the area and period of interest; (5) a rainfall-runoff model based on the Generalized Watershed Loading Factor (GWLF) formulation; and (6) a routing scheme for quantifying time of travel and cumulative flow estimates across downstream catchments. Hydro-BID generates output in the form of daily time series of flow estimates for the selected location and period. The output can be summarized as a monthly time series at the user's discretion. In Phase II of this effort, RTI has prepared an updated version of Hydro-BID that includes (1) improvements to the user interface; (2) a module to simulate the effect of reservoirs on downstream flows; (3) a module to link Hydro-BID and groundwater models developed with MODFLOW and incorporate water exchanges between groundwater and surface water compartments into the simulation of sur

Executive Summary This report describes a series of experiments carried out by PRICE Lab, a research programme at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) jointly funded by the Central Bank of Ireland, the Commission for Energy Regulation, the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission and the Commission for Communications Regulation. The experiments were conducted with samples of Irish consumers aged 18-70 years and were designed to answer the following general research question: At what point do products become too complex for consumers to choose accurately between the good ones and the bad ones? BACKGROUND AND METHODS PRICE Lab represents a departure from traditional methods employed for economic research in Ireland. It belongs to the rapidly expanding area of ‘behavioural economics’, which is the application of psychological insights to economic analysis. In recent years, behavioural economics has developed novel methods and generated many new findings, especially in relation to the choices made by consumers. These scientific advances have implications both for economics and for policy. They suggest that consumers often do not make decisions in the way that economists have traditionally assumed. The findings show that consumers have limited capacity for attending to and processing information and that they are prone to systematic biases, all of which may lead to disadvantageous choices. In short, consumers may make costly mistakes. Research has indeed documented that in several key consumer markets, including financial services, utilities and telecommunications, many consumers struggle to choose the best products for themselves. It is often argued that these markets involve ‘complex’ products. The obvious question that arises is whether consumer policy can be used to help them to make better choices when faced with complex products. Policies are more likely to be successful where they are informed by an accurate understanding of how real consumers make decisions between products. To provide evidence for consumer policy, PRICE Lab has developed a method for measuring the accuracy with which consumers make choices, using techniques adapted from the scientific study of human perception. The method allows researchers to measure how reliably consumers can distinguish a good deal from a bad one. A good deal is defined here as one where the product is more valuable than the price paid. In other words, it offers good value for money or, in the jargon of economics, offers the consumer a ‘surplus’. Conversely, a bad deal offers poor value for money, providing no (or a negative) surplus. PRICE Lab’s main experimental method, which we call the ‘Surplus Identification’ (S-ID) task, allows researchers to measure how accurately consumers can spot a surplus and whether they are prone to systematic biases. Most importantly, the S-ID task can be used to study how the accuracy of consumers’ decisions changes as the type of product changes. For the experiments we report here, samples of consumers arrived at the ESRI one at a time and spent approximately one hour doing the S-ID task with different kinds of products, which were displayed on a computer screen. They had to learn to judge the value of one or more products against prices and were then tested for accuracy. As well as people’s intrinsic motivation to do well when their performance on a task like this is tested, we provided an incentive: one in every ten consumers who attended PRICE Lab won a prize, based on their performance. Across a series of these experiments, we were able to test how the accuracy of consumers’ decisions was affected by the number and nature of the product’s characteristics, or ‘attributes’, which they had to take into account in order to distinguish good deals from bad ones. In other words, we were able to study what exactly makes for a ‘complex’ product, in the sense that consumers find it difficult to choose good deals. FINDINGS Overall, across all ten experiments described in this report, we found that consumers’ judgements of the value of products against prices were surprisingly inaccurate. Even when the product was simple, meaning that it consisted of just one clearly perceptible attribute (e.g. the product was worth more when it was larger), consumers required a surplus of around 16-26 per cent of the total price range in order to be able to judge accurately that a deal was a good one rather than a bad one. Put another way, when most people have to map a characteristic of a product onto a range of prices, they are able to distinguish at best between five and seven levels of value (e.g. five levels might be thought of as equivalent to ‘very bad’, ‘bad’, ‘average’, ‘good’, ‘very good’). Furthermore, we found that judgements of products against prices were not only imprecise, but systematically biased. Consumers generally overestimated what products at the top end of the range were worth and underestimated what products at the bottom end of the range were worth, typically by as much as 10-15 per cent and sometimes more. We then systematically increased the complexity of the products, first by adding more attributes, so that the consumers had to take into account, two, three, then four different characteristics of the product simultaneously. One product might be good on attribute A, not so good on attribute B and available at just above the xii | PRICE Lab: An Investigation of Consumers’ Capabilities with Complex Products average price; another might be very good on A, middling on B, but relatively expensive. Each time the consumer’s task was to judge whether the deal was good or bad. We would then add complexity by introducing attribute C, then attribute D, and so on. Thus, consumers had to negotiate multiple trade-offs. Performance deteriorated quite rapidly once multiple attributes were in play. Even the best performers could not integrate all of the product information efficiently – they became substantially more likely to make mistakes. Once people had to consider four product characteristics simultaneously, all of which contributed equally to the monetary value of the product, a surplus of more than half the price range was required for them to identify a good deal reliably. This was a fundamental finding of the present experiments: once consumers had to take into account more than two or three different factors simultaneously their ability to distinguish good and bad deals became strikingly imprecise. This finding therefore offered a clear answer to our primary research question: a product might be considered ‘complex’ once consumers must take into account more than two or three factors simultaneously in order to judge whether a deal is good or bad. Most of the experiments conducted after we obtained these strong initial findings were designed to test whether consumers could improve on this level of performance, perhaps for certain types of products or with sufficient practice, or whether the performance limits uncovered were likely to apply across many different types of product. An examination of individual differences revealed that some people were significantly better than others at judging good deals from bad ones. However the differences were not large in comparison to the overall effects recorded; everyone tested struggled once there were more than two or three product attributes to contend with. People with high levels of numeracy and educational attainment performed slightly better than those without, but the improvement was small. We also found that both the high level of imprecision and systematic bias were not reduced substantially by giving people substantial practice and opportunities to learn – any improvements were slow and incremental. A series of experiments was also designed to test whether consumers’ capability was different depending on the type of product attribute. In our initial experiments the characteristics of the products were all visual (e.g., size, fineness of texture, etc.). We then performed similar experiments where the relevant product information was supplied as numbers (e.g., percentages, amounts) or in categories (e.g., Type A, Rating D, Brand X), to see whether performance might improve. This question is important, as most financial and contractual information is supplied to consumers in a numeric or categorical form. The results showed clearly that the type of product information did not matter for the level of imprecision and bias in consumers’ decisions – the results were essentially the same whether the product attributes were visual, numeric or categorical. What continued to drive performance was how many characteristics the consumer had to judge simultaneously. Thus, our findings were not the result of people failing to perceive or take in information accurately. Rather, the limiting factor in consumers’ capability was how many different factors they had to weigh against each other at the same time. In most of our experiments the characteristics of the product and its monetary value were related by a one-to-one mapping; each extra unit of an attribute added the same amount of monetary value. In other words, the relationships were all linear. Because other findings in behavioural economics suggest that consumers might struggle more with non-linear relationships, we designed experiments to test them. For example, the monetary value of a product might increase more when the amount of one attribute moves from very low to low, than when it moves from high to very high. We found that this made no difference to either the imprecision or bias in consumers’ decisions provided that the relationship was monotonic (i.e. the direction of the relationship was consistent, so that more or less of the attribute always meant more or less monetary value respectively). When the relationship involved a turning point (i.e. more of the attribute meant higher monetary value but only up to a certain point, after which more of the attribute meant less value) consumers’ judgements were more imprecise still. Finally, we tested whether familiarity with the type of product improved performance. In most of the experiments we intentionally used products that were new to the experimental participants. This was done to ensure experimental control and so that we could monitor learning. In the final experiment reported here, we used two familiar products (Dublin houses and residential broadband packages) and tested whether consumers could distinguish good deals from bad deals any better among these familiar products than they could among products that they had never seen before, but which had the same number and type of attributes and price range. We found that consumers’ performance was the same for these familiar products as for unfamiliar ones. Again, what primarily determined the amount of imprecision and bias in consumers’ judgments was the number of attributes that they had to balance against each other, regardless of whether these were familiar or novel. POLICY IMPLICATIONS There is a menu of consumer polices designed to assist consumers in negotiating complex products. A review, including international examples, is given in the main body of the report. The primary aim is often to simplify the consumer’s task. Potential policies, versions of which already exist in various forms and which cover a spectrum of interventionist strength, might include: the provision and endorsement of independent, transparent price comparison websites and other choice engines (e.g. mobile applications, decision software); the provision of high quality independent consumer advice; ‘mandated simplification’, whereby regulations stipulate that providers must present product information in a simplified and standardised format specifically determined by regulation; and more strident interventions such as devising and enforcing prescriptive rules and regulations in relation to permissible product descriptions, product features or price structures. The present findings have implications for such policies. However, while the experimental findings have implications for policy, it needs to be borne in mind that the evidence supplied here is only one factor in determining whether any given intervention in markets is likely to be beneficial. The findings imply that consumers are likely to struggle to choose well in markets with products consisting of multiple important attributes that must all be factored in when making a choice. Interventions that reduce this kind of complexity for consumers may therefore be beneficial, but nothing in the present research addresses the potential costs of such interventions, or how providers are likely to respond to them. The findings are also general in nature and are intended to give insights into consumer choices across markets. There are likely to be additional factors specific to certain markets that need to be considered in any analysis of the costs and benefits of a potential policy change. Most importantly, the policy implications discussed here are not specific to Ireland or to any particular product market. Furthermore, they should not be read as criticisms of existing regulatory regimes, which already go to some lengths in assisting consumers to deal with complex products. Ireland currently has extensive regulations designed to protect consumers, both in general and in specific markets, descriptions of which can be found in Section 9.1 of the main report. Nevertheless, the experiments described here do offer relevant guidance for future policy designs. For instance, they imply that while policies that make it easier for consumers to switch providers may be necessary to encourage active consumers, they may not be sufficient, especially in markets where products are complex. In order for consumers to benefit, policies that help them to identify better deals reliably may also be required, given the scale of inaccuracy in consumers’ decisions that we record in this report when products have multiple important attributes. Where policies are designed to assist consumer decisions, the present findings imply quite severe limits in relation to the volume of information consumers can simultaneously take into account. Good impartial Executive Summary | xv consumer advice may limit the volume of information and focus on ensuring that the most important product attributes are recognised by consumers. The findings also have implications for the role of competition. While consumers may obtain substantial potential benefits from competition, their capabilities when faced with more complex products are likely to reduce such benefits. Pressure from competition requires sufficient numbers of consumers to spot and exploit better value offerings. Given our results, providers with larger market shares may face incentives to increase the complexity of products in an effort to dampen competitive pressure and generate more market power. Where marketing or pricing practices result in prices or attributes with multiple components, our findings imply that consumer choices are likely to become less accurate. Policymakers must of course be careful in determining whether such practices amount to legitimate innovations with potential consumer benefit. Yet there is a genuine danger that spurious complexity can be generated that confuses consumers and protects market power. The results described here provide backing for the promotion and/or provision by policymakers of high-quality independent choice engines, including but not limited to price comparison sites, especially in circumstances where the number of relevant product attributes is high. A longer discussion of the potential benefits and caveats associated with such policies is contained in the main body of the report. Mandated simplification policies are gaining in popularity internationally. Examples include limiting the number of tariffs a single energy company can offer or standardising health insurance products, both of which are designed to simplify the comparisons between prices and/or product attributes. The present research has some implications for what might make a good mandate. Consumer decisions are likely to be improved where a mandate brings to the consumer’s attention the most important product attributes at the point of decision. The present results offer guidance with respect to how many key attributes consumers are able simultaneously to trade off, with implications for the design of standardised disclosures. While bearing in mind the potential for imposing costs, the results also suggest benefits to compulsory ‘meta-attributes’ (such as APRs, energy ratings, total costs, etc.), which may help consumers to integrate otherwise separate sources of information. FUTURE RESEARCH The experiments described here were designed to produce findings that generalise across multiple product markets. However, in addition to the results outlined in this report, the work has resulted in new experimental methods that can be applied to more specific consumer policy issues. This is possible because the methods generate experimental measures of the accuracy of consumers’ decision-making. As such, they can be adapted to assess the quality of consumers’ decisions in relation to specific products, pricing and marketing practices. Work is underway in PRICE Lab that applies these methods to issues in specific markets, including those for personal loans, energy and mobile phones.