Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'New Keynesian macroeconomics'

El modelo Neo Keynesiano estándar ha sido una de las herramientas más influyentes en debates sobre dinámica macroeconómica, política monetaria y bienestar. Además, este modelo constituye una pieza fundamental en la elaboración de los modelos macroeconómicos que muchos bancos centrales utilizan para la simulación y predicción de variables económicas como la inflación y el crecimiento.

El objetivo de esta tesis es evaluar la veracidad de las siguientes tres implicancias del modelo Neo Keynesiano estándar. Primero, con estabilidad de precios plena, las pérdidas de bienestar que se generan por las rigideces de precios deben ser cero. Segundo, la inflación es un fenómeno determinado por las expectativas. Tercero, el dinero no tiene un rol independiente en el mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria.
The standard New Keynesian (NK) model has become one of the most influential tools in discussions of macroeconomic dynamics, monetary policy and welfare. Moreover, it has emerged as the backbone of the medium scale macroeconomic models that several central banks use for simulation and forecasting purposes.

This thesis evaluates the accuracy of the following three implications of the standard NK model. First, with full price stability the welfare losses resulting from price stickiness should be zero. Second, inflation is a forward-looking phenomenon. Third, money does not play an independent role in the monetary transmission mechanism.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005.
Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xii, 106 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 102-106). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

Derivation and Estimation of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in a Small Open Economy This paper explores how well Swedish inflation is explained by a New Keynesian Phillips Curve. As the real driving variable in the Phillips Curve, a measure of firms' real marginal cost is compared to the traditional output gap. The results show that, with real marginal cost in the Phillips Curve equation, the point estimates generally have the expected positive sign, which is less frequently the case with the output gap. However, with both real marginal cost and the output gap, it is difficult to pin down a statistically significant relationship with inflation. Firm-Level Evidence of Shifts in the Supply of Credit This paper examines empirically whether firms are subject to shifts in credit supply over the business cycle. Shifts in the supply of credit are identified by exploring how firms substitute between commitment credit -- lines of credit -- and non-commitment credit. The results show that firms on average rely more on commitment credits when monetary policy is tight and when the financial health of banks is weaker. The results are consistent with a bank lending channel of monetary policy and with shifts in the supply of credit following deteriorations in banks' balance sheets. Lines of Credit and Investment: Firm-Level Evidence of Real Effects of the Financial Crisis This paper studies how the 2008 financial crisis affected corporate investment in Sweden through its effect on credit availability. The approach is to compare investments of firms before and after the onset of the crisis as a function of their ex ante sensitivity to a credit supply shock, controlling for fundamental determinants of investments. Sensitivity to a credit supply shock is measured as credit reserves, defined as unused credit on lines of credit. The results indicate that the decline in investment following the crisis was not exacerbated by a contraction in the supply of credit.

In recent years the New Keynesian framework has become widely used to identify the relationship between monetary policy, inflation, the business cycle and welfare. Most commonly in these models inertia in prices are introduced only through the aggregate supply side which generates a short run non-neutrality of money. This thesis begins with an investigation into the impact of sticky prices on the macroeconomic equilibrium through aggregate demand. We show that in models of price stickiness among differentiated goods aggregate consumption deviates from the conventional Euler equation due to relative price distortions. This has some non-negligible implications: there are additional inflation effects, which enter through aggregate demand, that lower the response of the marginal cost and dampen responses of inflation and output; products' price elasticity of demand affects equilibrium output and inflation dynamics independently of supply factors; monetary policy responses are smoother than in the conventional new Keynesian models, particularly the more competitive are the products markets. In chapter 2 we continue with an investigation into the impact that the aforementioned channel has on welfare and monetary policy under various regimes. Specifically, we compare our results with the benchmark New Keynesian model with a cost channel for alternative levels of competition in the goods market. When the central bank is assumed to follow a Taylor rule we find, contrary to the standard New Keynesian literature, that welfare losses ultimately fall as the goods market becomes more competitive. Furthermore, there are additional adverse implications for welfare coming through an exaggerated stabilisation bias associated with discretionary policy in our model version. A move to optimal commitment implies significant additional gains compared to the standard literature by; eliminating this amplified stabilisation bias and; reducing further the fall in output gap and inflation fluctuations at the time of shock. The final part of this thesis develops a Generalised Taylor economy to include a financial market. This finance sector is characterised by savings contracts to households and loan contracts to firms, both of which are differentiated by the duration for which their interest rate remains fixed. Additionally, a time varying external finance premium on loan rates is introduced through an endogenous probability of firm default. Using break-even conditions we show that the fixed markup on loan rates is dependent on, the expected default risk over the lifetime of the contract, and, spillovers from the unexpected losses of current "locked in" financial contracts that must be accounted for in the zero profit condition of the commercial bank. Our results indicate that inertia in loan and savings rates dampens the responses of monetary policy and the business cycle whilst generating a procylical loan rate spread. In contrast, risk of default amplifies the business cycle and delivers a countercyclical loan rate spread. The overall impact of these two channels on the direction and magnitude of loan rate spreads, spillovers to new contracts and the dynamics of the business cycle, are shown depend on the type of shock hitting the economy.

My dissertation is a collection of three essays that study various aspects of non-price competition among firms using fully microfounded general equilibrium models. The first two chapters, both coauthored with Benedetto Molinari, introduce advertising expenditures by firms into a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), in order to address the question of whether and how aggregate advertising expenditures provide important effects upon the aggregate economy. In particular, the first chapter provides a short-run analysis, by focusing on the implications of aggregate adverting expenditure upon the business cycle. The second chapter, in turn, focuses on long-run effects of advertising, by analyzing the implications upon the steady-state equilibrium of aggregate advertising expenditures by firms. The last chapter, by using a modified version of the canonical New Keynesian model, investigates the effect upon inflation dynamics of non-price competition among firms.
Esta tesis contiene tres ensayos que estudian varios aspectos de la competencia no en precio entre las impresas, utilizando modelos de equilibrio general micro-fundados. En los primeros dos capítulos, ambos coautorados con Benedetto Molinari, se introducen gastos en publicidad de las empresas en un modelo dinámico y estocástico de equilibrio general, a través del cual, se estudian las implicaciones de la publicidad en la economía agregada. El primer capítulo se focaliza en los efectos de corto plazo de la publicidad, analizando las implicaciones con respecto al ciclo económico. El segundo capítulo, estudia los efectos de largo plazo de la publicidad, con el objetivo de analizar las implicaciones sobra el estado estacionario del economía. En el último capítulo se utiliza una versión modificada del modelo Neo-Keynesiano que estudia los efectos de la competencia no en precio en relación la dinámica de la inflación.

Le premier chapitre questionne l'intuition conventionnelle selon laquelle une forte concentration au plus haut de la distribution des revenus devrait favoriser l'émergence de bulles d'actifs rationnelles. J'utilise un modèle OLG avec des fictions financières et des agents hétérogènes qui diffèrent en termes de taux d'épargne, portefeuilles d'actifs et talents. Je montre qu'une forte concentration promeut l'émergence de bulles si et seulement si ces bulles sont illiquides ou si tous les actifs offrent les mêmes rendements. A l'inverse, lorsque les bulles sont liquides et les actifs liquides paient une prime de liquidité, une faible concentration promeut l'émergence de bulles. Le deuxième papier étudie les conditions sous lesquelles une bulle d'actif augmente le PIB dans un modèle OLG-Nouveau Keynesien incluant le capital. Je montre que la stagnation séculaire est une condition nécessaire mais non suffisante. En effet, les bulles ne stimulent le PIB que si la demande agrégée est très fortement déficiente. Le troisième papier démontre que les modèle Nouveaux Keynesiens (NK) font des prédictions paradoxales lorsque la demande agrégée est chroniquement déficiente - un boom séculaire plutôt qu'une stagnation séculaire, et analyse comment ajuster ces modèles pour qu'ils deviennent viables dans l'environnement actuel. Je souligne l'importance cruciale des élasticités de l'offre et de la demande d'actifs par rapport au PIB à long terme ; j'effectue également une connexion entre le boom séculaire et d'autres prévisions paradoxales du modèle NK
The first chapter questions the conventional intuition that a high concentration of income at the top of the distribution should promote the emergence of rational asset bubbles. I use an OLG model with financial fictions and heterogeneous agents that differ in terms of savings rate, portfolio choices and skills. I show that a high concentration at the top promotes the emergence of asset bubbles if and only if those asset bubbles are illiquid or financial markets are arbitrage-free. Instead, if asset bubbles are liquid and liquid assets pay a premium under illiquid assets, a low concentration promotes the emergence of asset bubbles. The second chapter studies the circumstances under which asset bubbles are expansionary in an OLG-New Keynesian that includes capital. I show that secular stagnation is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Indeed, asset bubbles stimulate investment, consumption and output if and only if there's a strong shortage of aggregate demand. Finally, the third paper shows that "standard" New Keynesian models make puzzling predictions when aggregate demand is chronically deficient they predict a secular boom, and seeks to understand how those models must be adjusted to analyze secular stagnation. I emphasize the crucial role of the long run elasticities of asset demand and supply with respect to the output gap in general equilibrium; and I also connect the secular boom to other puzzling predictions of the New Keynesian model

Evidence in the literature points to a puzzling initial increase in inflation after an increase in nominal interest rates. This can be explained by the fact that firms have to borrow money to pay wages in advance, i.e., by the cost channel. In this paper, the study of the cost channel is extended to an open economy with sticky prices. It is shown that a broadened concept of the cost channel has significant implications for the economy's dynamics and monetary policy, and also contributes to explain some interesting empirical evidence. Supply side effects of interest rates and import prices on inflation have important implications for monetary policy. Usually such effects are estimated using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). However, the estimation of the cost channel maybe distorted when import prices are omitted from that curve. To address this issue, we estimate empirically the NKPC for domestic and CPI inflations. In relation with this, we also study if imports of consumption goods are paid in advance, whether there is an immediate pass-through of exchange rates, and if imports should be treated as final consumption goods and/or as inputs in production. Another concern of monetary policy in a monetary union is inflation differentials, since they can undermine the success of the union. Against this background, our goal is to explore the determinants of inflation differentials in twelve euro area countries, focusing on the role of the business cycle. On one hand, convergence of inflation rates and business cycles is analysed with both an unobserved component model estimated with the Kalman filter and a common factor approach. On the other hand, an econometric analysis of the determinants of inflation differentials is performed.

Die vorliegende Dissertation zu makroökonomischen Themen beinhaltet einen einleitenden Literaturüberblick, drei eigenständige und voneinander unabhängige Kapitel sowie einen technischen Anhang. In Kapitel zwei wird ein Zwei-Länder Modell einer Währungsunion betrachtet, in dem die gemeinsame Zentralbank die Wohlfahrt der gesamten Währungsunion maximieren will, während die zwei fiskalpolitischen Akteure vergleichbare, aber minimal abweichende länderspezifische Verlustfunktionen zu minimieren suchen. Das Konkurrenzverhalten dieser drei Institutionen wird in sieben spieltheoretischen Szenarien analysiert. Beim Vergleich einer homogenen mit einer heterogenen Währungsunion lassen sich für letztere deutlich höhere Wohlfahrtsverluste relativ zum sozialen Optimum feststellen. Die Szenarien mit den geringsten Wohlfahrtsverlusten sind Kooperation aller drei Institutionen und eine Stackelberg-Führerschaft der Zentralbank. Kapitel drei untersucht, inwieweit das Verhältnis von Immobilienpreise zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt als langfristig konstant und nur auf Grund von Produktivitätsschocks von seinem Mittelwert abweichend angesehen werden kann. Hierzu wird ein Zwei-Sektoren RBC-Modell für den Immobiliensektor und einen Konsumgütersektor erstellt. Es wird gezeigt, dass ein antizipierter, zukünftiger Schock auf das Produktivitätswachstum im Konsumgütersektor eine sofortige, deutliche Erhöhung der Immobilienpreise relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt zur Folge hat. In Kapitel vier wird gefragt, ob ein typisches Neukeynesianisches Modell "sechs große Rätsel der internationalen Makroökonomie" erklären kann. Die sechs Rätsel werden in Bedingungen für erste und zweite Momente übersetzt und fünf wesentliche Modellparameter geschätzt. Das Ergebnis ist erstaunlich gut: unter anderem können die empirischen Beobachtungen zur Heimatpräferenz wiedergegeben und die Schwankungsbreite des realen Wechselkurses deutlich erhöht werden. Handelskosten sind für dieses Ergebnis ein wesentlicher Faktor.
This dissertation consists of an introductory chapter with an extended literature review, three chapters on individual and independent research topics, and an appendix. Chapter 2 uses a two-country model with a central bank maximizing union-wide welfare and two fiscal authorities minimizing comparable, but slightly different country-wide losses. The rivalry between the three authorities is analyzed in seven static games. Comparing a homogeneous with a heterogeneous monetary union, welfare losses relative to the social optimum are found to be significantly larger in a heterogeneous union. The best-performing scenarios are cooperation between all authorities and monetary leadership. The goal of Chapter 3 is to investigate whether or not it is possible to explain the house price to GDP ratio and the house price to stock price ratio as being generally constant, deviating from its respective mean only because of shocks to productivity? Building a two-sector RBC model for residential and non-residential capital, it is shown that an anticipated future shock to productivity growth in the non-residential sector leads to an immediate large increase in house prices relative to GDP. In Chapter 4, it is asked whether a typical New Keynesian Open Economy Model is able to explain "Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics". After translating the six puzzles into moment conditions for the model, I estimate five parameters to fit the moment conditions implied by the data. Given the simplicity of the model, its fit is surprisingly good: among other things, the home bias puzzles can easily be replicated, the exchange rate volatility is formidably increased and the exchange rate correlation pattern is relatively close to realistic values. Trade costs are one important ingredient for this finding.

xi, 87 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number.
The behavior of the macroeconomy and monetary policy is heavily influenced by expectations. Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model. One common way to alter expectation formation involves agents' use of econometrics to form forecasting equations. Agents update their forecasts based on new information that arises as the economy progresses through time. In this way agents "learn" about the economy. Previous learning literature mostly focuses on agents using a fixed data size or increasing the amount of data they use. My research explores how agents might endogenously change the amount of data they use to update their forecast equations. My first chapter explores how an established endogenous learning algorithm, proposed by Marcet and Nicolini, may influence monetary policy decisions. Under rational expectations (RE) determinacy serves as the main criterion for favoring a model or monetary policy rule. A determinant model need not result in stability under an alternative expectation formation process called learning. Researchers appeal to stability under learning as a criterion for monetary policy rule selection. This chapter provides a cautionary tale for policy makers and reinforces the importance of the role of expectations. Simulations appear stable for a prolonged interval of time but may suddenly deviate from the RE solution. This exotic behavior exhibits significantly higher volatility relative to RE yet over long simulations remains true to the RE equilibrium. In the second chapter I address the effectiveness of endogenous gain learning algorithms in the presence of occasional structural breaks. Marcet and Nicolini's algorithm relies on agents reacting to forecast errors. I propose an alternative, which relies on agents using statistical information. The third chapter uses standard macroeconomic data to find out whether a model that has non-rational expectations can outperform RE. I answer this question affirmatively and explore what learning means to the economy. In addition, I conduct a Monte Carlo exercise to investigate whether a simple learning model does, empirically, imbed an RE model. While theoretically a very small constant gain implies RE, empirically learning creates bias in coefficient estimates.
Committee in charge: George Evans, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Jeremy Piger, Co-Chairperson, Economics; Shankha Chakraborty, Member, Economics; Sergio Koreisha, Outside Member, Decision Sciences

New Consensus Models (NCMs) have been criticised by Post-Keynesians (PKs) for a variety of reasons. The paper presents a model that synthesises several of the PK arguments. The model consists of three classes: rentiers, firms and workers. It has a short-run inflation barrier derived from distribution conflict between these classes, which is endogenous in the medium run. Distribution conflict does not only affect inflation but also income shares. On the demand side the income classes have different saving propensities. We apply a Kaleckian investment function with expected sales and internal funds as major determinants. The paper analyses short-run stability and includes medium-run endogeneity channels for the Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU): persistence mechanisms in the labour market, adaptive wage and profit aspirations, investment in capital stock and cost effects of interest rate changes. The model is used to analyse NCM and PK policy assignments and policy rules. We argue that improved employment without increasing inflation will be possible, if macroeconomic policies are coordinated along the following lines: The central bank targets distribution, wage bargaining parties target inflation and fiscal policies are applied for short- and medium-run real stabilisation purposes. (authors' abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

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Esse trabalho apresenta análise combinada entre a macroeconomia e a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros, através de duas modelagens distintas. Primeiramente, utiliza-se o modelo Novo Keynesiano de pequeno porte, que é combinado com o modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel. Em seguida estima-se o modelo dinâmico de Nelson-Siegel integrado com variáveis macroeconômicas. São empregados dados mensais referentes aos contratos futuros de DI, de Setembro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2017. A comparação das modelagens mostra que o modelo combinado apresenta resultados mais consistentes do que o modelo integrado.
This paper aims to present a combined analysis between macroeconomics and the term structure of interest rates, through two different models. Firstly, a small New Keynesian model is used, which is combined with the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model. Then the NelsonSiegel dynamic model integrated with macroeconomic variables is estimated. Monthly data on DI futures contracts are used from September 2002 to December 2017. Comparison of modeling shows that the combined model presents more consistent results than the integrated model.

External economic shocks cause domestic macroeconomic aggregates to fluctuate. This may call for a macroeconomic policy intervention. Since the early 1990s an increasing number of countries have adopted an inflation targeting framework. In reality, inflation targeters do not have perfect information when determining the interest rate in order to maintain their goal of price stability and stable economic growth. Therefore it is relevant to understand how shocks affect the domestic macroeconomic aggregates theoretically and investigate whether the theoretical predictions hold empirically. I use the New Keynesian model by Clarida, Galí and Gertler from 1999 and investigate explicitly the theoretical effects of expected and unexpected supply and demand-side shocks on the monetary policy instrument and the two monetary policy target variables – the interest rate, output gap and inflation rate. By analysing the impulse-response functions of a structural VAR model applied to quarterly Swedish and British data from 1994 to 2011, I test empirically the theoretical predictions according to the New Keynesian model. I find that the empirical results are in line with the theoretical predictions.

Ce travail propose une mise en perspective des pratiques de modélisation macroéconomique,depuis les travaux de Robert E. Lucas dans les années 1970 jusqu’aux contributions actuelles de l’approche dite d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE). Cette mise en perspective permet de caractériser l’essor des modèles DSGE comme un compromis entre conceptions antagonistes de la modélisation : d’une part, celle de l’approche des cycles réels (RBC) et, d’autre part, celle de la nouvelle économie keynésienne. Pour justifier cette opposition, ce travail propose une reconstruction épistémologique de l’histoire récente de la macroéconomie, à savoir une analyse des différents critères qui définissent la validité et la pertinence d’un modèle. L’hypothèse de travail est qu’on peut identifier, pour chaque pratique de modélisation,trois critères méthodologiques fondamentaux : la validité interne (l’adéquation des hypothèses d’un modèle aux concepts aux formalismes d’une théorie), la validité externe(l’adéquation des hypothèses et/ou des résultats d’un modèle au monde réel, et les procédés quantitatifs pour évaluer cette adéquation) et le critère de hiérarchie (la préférence pour la validité interne sur la validité externe, ou vice versa). Cette grille de lecture, inspirée de la littérature sur les modèles en philosophie des sciences, permet d’apporter quatre contributions originales à l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente. (1) Elle permet de concevoir l’essor des modèles DSGE sans faire appel à l’explication proposée par l’historiographie produite par les macroéconomistes eux-mêmes,à savoir l’existence d’un consensus et d’un progrès technique exogène. Contre cette vision de l’histoire en termes de progrès scientifique, nous mettons en avant les oppositions méthodologiques au sein de la macroéconomie et nous illustrons l’interdépendance entre activité théorique et développement des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. (2) La thèse s’attaque au cloisonnement entre histoire des théories macroéconomiques et histoire des méthodes quantitatives. Grâce à sa perspective méthodologique, ce travail permet d’opérer la jonction entre ces deux littératures et de développer les bases d’une vision globale des transformations récentes de la macroéconomie. (3) La relecture méthodologique de l’histoire de la modélisation permet de mettre en évidence comment la condition de validité externe a représenté le principal point de clivage entre différentes conceptions de la modélisation. La question de la validité externe apparaît par ailleurs intrinsèquement liée à la question de l’explication causale des phénomènes, sur laquelle repose largement la justification de la modélisation comme outil d’expertise des politiques économiques. (4) Ce travail aboutit à une caractérisation originale de l’approche DSGE : loin de constituer une «synthèse» ou un consensus, cette approche s’apparente à un compromis, fragilisé par l’antagonisme méthodologique entre ses parties prenantes
This dissertation provides a history of macroeconomic modeling practices from RobertE. Lucas’s works in the 1970s up to today’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Working from a historical perspective, I suggest that the recent rise of DSGE models should be characterized as a compromise between opposing views of modeling methodology—on the one hand, the real business cycle (RBC) view, on the other hand, the new Keynesian view. In order to justify this claim, my work provides an epistemological reconstruction of the recent history of macroeconomics, building from ananalysis of the criteria defining the validity and the pertinence of a model. My assumption is that recent macroeconomic modeling practices can be described by three distinctive methodological criteria : the internal validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between models’ assumptions and concepts and formalisms of a theory), the external validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between the assumptions and results of a model and the real world, as well as the quantitative methods needed to assess such a consistency) and the hierarchization criterion (which establishes the preference for internal over external validity, or vice versa). This epistemological reconstruction draws primarily from the literature about models in the philosophy of science. My work aims to make four contributions to the history of recent macroeconomics. (1) To understand the rise of DSGE models without referring to the explanation providedby the macroeconomists themselves, who tend to think that macroeconomics evolved through theoretical consensus and exogenous technical progress. By distancing itself fromthis perspective, my work draws attention to the disruptive character of methodological controversies and to the interdependence between theoretical activity and the developmentof statistical and econometric methods. (2) To overcome the existing divide betweenthe history of macroeconomic theories and the history of quantitative methods. Throughits epistemological perspective, my work reconciles these two historiographies and specifiesthe basis for a comprehensive understanding of recent developments in macroeconomics.(3) To put the accent on the external validity condition as the main controversial issue separating different views of macro-modeling methodology. Furthermore, I illustrate how the debate about external validity is closely related to the problem of casual explanation and, finally, to the conditions for providing economic policy evaluation. (4) To characterize the DSGE approach: although DSGE models are often presented as a“synthesis”, or as a “consensus”, they are better described as a shaky compromise between two opposing methodological visions

In dieser Arbeit werden die Folgen der Calvo-Annahme in dynamischen makroökonomischen Modellen untersucht. Dafür wird die Calvo-Annahme unter Anwendung des Konzepts der statistischen Hazardfunktion verallgemeinert. Ich untersuche zwei mögliche Anwendungen dieses Ansatzes innerhalb von DSGE-Modellen. Im ersten Artikel zeige ich, dass der Zugewinn an Handhabbarkeit, der aus der Calvo-Annahme für Neu-Keynesianische Modelle folgt, mit unerwünschten Folgen in Bezug auf die Inflationsdynamiken einher geht. Der zweite Artikel schätzt die aggregierte Hazardfunktion unter Verwendung des theoretischen Rahmens des ersten Artikels. Es zeigt sich, dass die Annahme einer konstanten Hazardfunktion, die aus der Calvo-Annahme folgt, von den Daten eindeutig abgelehnt wird. Im dritten Artikel analysiere ich die Implikationen der empirisch geschätzten Hazardfunktion für die Persistenz von Inflation und die Geldpolitik. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass mittels der empirisch plausiblen aggregierten Hazardfunktion Zeitreihen simuliert werden können, die mit der Persistenz der inflatorischen Lücke im US Verbraucherpreisindex konsistent sind. Anhand dieser Ergebnisse komme ich zu dem Schluss, dass die Hazardfunktion eine entscheidende Rolle für die dynamischen Eigenschaften von Inflation spielt. Der letzte Artikel wendet den selben Modellierungsansatz auf ein Real-Business-Cycle Model mit rigidem Arbeitsmarkt an. Unter Verwendung eines allgemeineren stochastischen Anpassungsprozess stelle ich fest, dass die Arbeitsmarktdynamiken von einem Parameter beinflusst werden, der das Monotonieverhalten der Hazardfunktion bestimmt. Insbesondere steigt die Volatilität des Beschäftigungsniveaus, wohingegen dessen Persistenz mit zunehmendem Parameterwert abnimmt.
The Calvo assumption (Calvo, 1983) is widely used in the macroeconomic literature to model market frictions that limit the ability of economic agents to re-optimize their control variables. In spite of its virtues, the Calvo assumption also implies singular adjustment behavior at the firm level as well as a restrictive aggregation mechanism for the whole economy. In this study, I examine implications of the Calvo assumption for macroeconomic dynamics. To do so, I extend the Calvo assumption to a more general case based on the concept of the statistical hazard function. Two applications of this approach are studied in the DSGE framework. In the first essay, I apply this approach to a New Keynesian model, and demonstrate that tractability gained from the Calvo pricing assumption is costly in terms of inflation dynamics. The second essay estimates aggregate price reset hazard function using the theoretical framework constructed in the first essay, and shows that the constant hazard function implied by the Calvo assumption is strongly rejected by the aggregate data. In the third essay, I further explore implications of the empirically based hazard function for inflation persistence and monetary policy. I find that the empirically plausible aggregate price reset hazard function can generate simulated data that are consistent with inflation gap persistence found in the US CPI data. Based on these results, I conclude that the price reset hazard function plays a crucial role for generating inflation dynamics. The last essay applies the same modeling approach to a RBC model with employment rigidity. I find that, when introducing a more general stochastic adjustment process, the employment dynamics vary with a parameter, which determines the monotonic property of the hazard function. In particular, the volatility of employment is increasing, but the persistence is decreasing in the value of the parameter.

Thesis focus on derivation of macro-finance model for analysis of yield curve and its dynamics using macroeconomic factors. Underlying model is based on basic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE approach that stems from Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian Macroeconomics. The model includes four main building blocks: households, firms, government and central bank. Log-linearized solution of the model serves as an input for derivation of yield curve and its main determinants -- pricing kernel, price of risk and affine term structure of interest rates -- based on no-arbitrage assumption. The Thesis shows a possible way of consistent derivation of structural macro-finance model, with reasonable computational burden that allows for time varying term premia. A simple VAR model, widely used in macro-finance literature, serves as a benchmark. The paper also presents a brief comparison and shows an ability of both models to fit an average yield curve observed from the data. Lastly, the importance of term structure analysis is demonstrated using case of Central Bank deciding about policy rate and Government conducting debt management.

Les fluctuations macroéconomiques dans les pays émergents sont plus prononcées que celles observées pour les pays développés. On explique cet écart par des imperfections de marché plus importantes dans ce groupe de pays, sous la forme de rigidités nominales comme c’est le cas dans le modèle Néo-Keynésien standard. On y ajoute également des rigidités réelles, ce qui rend les réactions des agents économiques à des chocs exogènes sous-optimales, en comparaison avec le cadre de la théorie des cycles réels. A ces imperfections de marché s’ajoutent des imperfections institutionnelles, où le rôle du secteur public est modélisé suivant une relation d’agence entre ce dernier comme agent fournisseur du bien public, et les ménages qui sont les principaux, demandeurs de ce bien. Les préférences endogènes du planificateur social entraînent également des distorsions entraînant une exacerbation du cycle économique
Macroeconomic fluctuations in small, open emerging economies 5 have only recently been of interest to the literature. This is due to a host of issues, ranging from data reliability and quality, to the relevance of the business cycle concept when applied to those economies. Nonetheless, this dissertation presents general equilibrium model applications to emerging economies. The central theme of this dissertation is that imperfect market and institutional structures can account for the excess volatility in macroeconomic fluctuations, as compared against developed economies. We extend the New Keynesian Synthesis framework to accommodate the distinctive features and stylised facts compiled for emerging economies

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Following doctoral thesis developed in terms of qualification project of post-graduate studies program in social sciences from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. The goal of the thesis presented here is to examine the political assumptions expressed in macroeconomic models of the International Monetary Fund adjustment and the political conditions necessary for its implementation, in the period 1980-2008. And justifications to develop a work of this nature were provided both by the recognized critical social and economic effects, as the current theoretical controversies existing on the pertinence of such programs and the reasons that led the IMF to promote macroeconomic policy, contained therein. The hypothesis explored here is that macroeconomic adjustment programmes developed and deployed by the IMF, indifferently applied in the various national economies and after the period of the so-called debt crisis, sought to make and was a result of complying with regulatory rules and symbolic imposed at the time and throughout the period in which gives the ownership of real resources in the Central States, by class of bankers. From this point of view, this change produced a rearrangement within the economic and political theories in use by the Fund, implying several attempts on your part, to the economic reconstruction of the most basic postulates, which formed the action parameter to the institution, in the long period from after World War II. The theoretical-methodological aspects are developed here, first, use of the postulates laid by M. DOBB on the SCHUMPETER s contribution towards the understanding of macroeconomic models as a political instrument design and ideological. Second, it uses the reading confirms M. BLAUG in the same sense that economic analysis models, hide, without rejecting their premises heuristics. It is used also of a long tradition, revived by K. MARX and not closed in this, which affirms the relevance of politics as the vehicle through which theoretical models, concepts and assumptions are thought of as fed by historical contexts and, at the same time will be part of the consolidation symbolic or not, these same contexts. When such theoretical-methodological aspects are applied to that working hypothesis to explain the study results and understand that the adjustment programmes of the International Monetary Fund and the evidence of their policies have had significant effects, to confirm it, about the current trend financialisation of the world capitalism. If correct, the exposed, lighten and contribute to the understanding of these issues were addressed in the body of work now submitted
Segue Tese de Doutorado desenvolvido nos termos do projeto de qualificação do Programa de Estudos Pósgraduados em Ciências Sociais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. O objetivo da tese ora apresentada é o de examinar os pressupostos políticos expressos nos modelos macroeconômicos de ajuste do Fundo Monetário Internacional e as condições políticas necessárias à sua efetivação, no período de 1980-2008. E as justificativas para desenvolver um trabalho dessa natureza foram fornecidas tanto pelos reconhecidos efeitos críticos, sociais e econômicos, provenientes da incorporação desses programas pelas economias nacionais, quanto pelas atuais controvérsias teóricas existentes sobre a pertinência desses programas e as razões que levaram o Fundo Monetário a promover a política macroeconômica, neles contidos. A hipótese aqui trabalhada é que os programas macroeconômicos de ajuste desenvolvidos e implantados pelo FMI, indiferentemente aplicado nas diversas economias nacionais e após o período da chamada crise da dívida, buscou viabilizar e foi resultado do atendimento às regras normativas e simbólicas instituídas no momento e ao longo do período no qual se dá a apropriação dos recursos reais nos Estados Centrais, pela classe dos banqueiros. E esta apropriação dos recursos reais por essa classe significou, por seu lado, o rompimento da coalização política do pós-guerra, onde o Estado de Bem-Estar Social tomou corpo, induzindo a uma mudança histórica genuína para a efetivação de um novo tempo histórico. Desse ponto de vista, essa mudança produziu um rearranjo no interior das teorias políticas e econômicas em uso pelo Fundo, implicando em diversas tentativas, de sua parte, para a reconstrução dos postulados econômicos os mais básicos, os quais serviram de parâmetro de ação para a instituição, no longo período do após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Ocorre que, nesse momento no qual aparentava sua maior vitalidade com intervenções nas diversas economias nacionais, assistiu-se, isso sim, a uma crise de legitimidade em sua ação e em seus postulados teóricos, induzida por aquelas mudanças mais gerais, que travaram sua melhor atuação. Assim, um dos focos da tese será o de demonstrar, justamente, como essas mudanças se deram no FMI. Os aspectos teórico-metodológicos aqui desenvolvidos fazem uso, primeiro, das postulações lançadas por M. DOBB acerca da contribuição de J. SCHUMPETER no sentido da compreensão dos modelos macroeconômicos como uma concepção e instrumento de natureza política ideológica. Segundo, utiliza-se da leitura confirmativa de M. BLAUG no mesmo sentido de que os modelos de análise econômica ocultam, sem rejeitar, suas premissas heurísticas. Estas serão trazidas para o interior das concepções e modelos teóricos que balizam os modelos analíticos e operacionais dando suporte para as proposições macro microeconômicas e aparecem, nesses modelos, na forma de uma intromissão de ideologias, valores e interesses políticos, dentro dos programas e das sugestões de políticas econômicas, em geral. Terceiro, utiliza-se de uma larga tradição, reavivada por K. MARX e não encerrada com este, que afirma a pertinência da política como o veículo por onde modelos teóricos, concepções e pressuposições são pensadas como alimentadas pelos contextos históricos e, em simultâneo será parte da consolidação simbólica, ou não, desses mesmos contextos. Quando tais aspectos teórico-metodológicos são aplicados àquela hipótese de trabalho o resultado obtido permitiu explicar e compreender que os programas de ajustes do Fundo Monetário e as evidências de suas políticas surtiram efeitos significativos, ao confirmá-la, sobre a atual tendência financerizada do capitalismo mundial. Mas, ao final, constituindo-se no veículo para a expansão, a partir das economias centrais para as demais economias de industrialização tardia, desses novos interesses da classe dos financistas o FMI teve sua atuação histórica, em seus termos originais, esgotada. Se correto o exposto, conseguiu-se clarear e contribuir no entendimento dessas questões, tratadas no corpo do trabalho ora apresentado

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Following doctoral thesis developed in terms of qualification project of post-graduate studies program in social sciences from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. The goal of the thesis presented here is to examine the political assumptions expressed in macroeconomic models of the International Monetary Fund adjustment and the political conditions necessary for its implementation, in the period 1980-2008. And justifications to develop a work of this nature were provided both by the recognized critical social and economic effects, as the current theoretical controversies existing on the pertinence of such programs and the reasons that led the IMF to promote macroeconomic policy, contained therein. The hypothesis explored here is that macroeconomic adjustment programmes developed and deployed by the IMF, indifferently applied in the various national economies and after the period of the so-called debt crisis, sought to make and was a result of complying with regulatory rules and symbolic imposed at the time and throughout the period in which gives the ownership of real resources in the Central States, by class of bankers. From this point of view, this change produced a rearrangement within the economic and political theories in use by the Fund, implying several attempts on your part, to the economic reconstruction of the most basic postulates, which formed the action parameter to the institution, in the long period from after World War II. The theoretical-methodological aspects are developed here, first, use of the postulates laid by M. DOBB on the SCHUMPETER s contribution towards the understanding of macroeconomic models as a political instrument design and ideological. Second, it uses the reading confirms M. BLAUG in the same sense that economic analysis models, hide, without rejecting their premises heuristics. It is used also of a long tradition, revived by K. MARX and not closed in this, which affirms the relevance of politics as the vehicle through which theoretical models, concepts and assumptions are thought of as fed by historical contexts and, at the same time will be part of the consolidation symbolic or not, these same contexts. When such theoretical-methodological aspects are applied to that working hypothesis to explain the study results and understand that the adjustment programmes of the International Monetary Fund and the evidence of their policies have had significant effects, to confirm it, about the current trend financialisation of the world capitalism. If correct, the exposed, lighten and contribute to the understanding of these issues were addressed in the body of work now submitted
Segue Tese de Doutorado desenvolvido nos termos do projeto de qualificação do Programa de Estudos Pósgraduados em Ciências Sociais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. O objetivo da tese ora apresentada é o de examinar os pressupostos políticos expressos nos modelos macroeconômicos de ajuste do Fundo Monetário Internacional e as condições políticas necessárias à sua efetivação, no período de 1980-2008. E as justificativas para desenvolver um trabalho dessa natureza foram fornecidas tanto pelos reconhecidos efeitos críticos, sociais e econômicos, provenientes da incorporação desses programas pelas economias nacionais, quanto pelas atuais controvérsias teóricas existentes sobre a pertinência desses programas e as razões que levaram o Fundo Monetário a promover a política macroeconômica, neles contidos. A hipótese aqui trabalhada é que os programas macroeconômicos de ajuste desenvolvidos e implantados pelo FMI, indiferentemente aplicado nas diversas economias nacionais e após o período da chamada crise da dívida, buscou viabilizar e foi resultado do atendimento às regras normativas e simbólicas instituídas no momento e ao longo do período no qual se dá a apropriação dos recursos reais nos Estados Centrais, pela classe dos banqueiros. E esta apropriação dos recursos reais por essa classe significou, por seu lado, o rompimento da coalização política do pós-guerra, onde o Estado de Bem-Estar Social tomou corpo, induzindo a uma mudança histórica genuína para a efetivação de um novo tempo histórico. Desse ponto de vista, essa mudança produziu um rearranjo no interior das teorias políticas e econômicas em uso pelo Fundo, implicando em diversas tentativas, de sua parte, para a reconstrução dos postulados econômicos os mais básicos, os quais serviram de parâmetro de ação para a instituição, no longo período do após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Ocorre que, nesse momento no qual aparentava sua maior vitalidade com intervenções nas diversas economias nacionais, assistiu-se, isso sim, a uma crise de legitimidade em sua ação e em seus postulados teóricos, induzida por aquelas mudanças mais gerais, que travaram sua melhor atuação. Assim, um dos focos da tese será o de demonstrar, justamente, como essas mudanças se deram no FMI. Os aspectos teórico-metodológicos aqui desenvolvidos fazem uso, primeiro, das postulações lançadas por M. DOBB acerca da contribuição de J. SCHUMPETER no sentido da compreensão dos modelos macroeconômicos como uma concepção e instrumento de natureza política ideológica. Segundo, utiliza-se da leitura confirmativa de M. BLAUG no mesmo sentido de que os modelos de análise econômica ocultam, sem rejeitar, suas premissas heurísticas. Estas serão trazidas para o interior das concepções e modelos teóricos que balizam os modelos analíticos e operacionais dando suporte para as proposições macro microeconômicas e aparecem, nesses modelos, na forma de uma intromissão de ideologias, valores e interesses políticos, dentro dos programas e das sugestões de políticas econômicas, em geral. Terceiro, utiliza-se de uma larga tradição, reavivada por K. MARX e não encerrada com este, que afirma a pertinência da política como o veículo por onde modelos teóricos, concepções e pressuposições são pensadas como alimentadas pelos contextos históricos e, em simultâneo será parte da consolidação simbólica, ou não, desses mesmos contextos. Quando tais aspectos teórico-metodológicos são aplicados àquela hipótese de trabalho o resultado obtido permitiu explicar e compreender que os programas de ajustes do Fundo Monetário e as evidências de suas políticas surtiram efeitos significativos, ao confirmá-la, sobre a atual tendência financerizada do capitalismo mundial. Mas, ao final, constituindo-se no veículo para a expansão, a partir das economias centrais para as demais economias de industrialização tardia, desses novos interesses da classe dos financistas o FMI teve sua atuação histórica, em seus termos originais, esgotada. Se correto o exposto, conseguiu-se clarear e contribuir no entendimento dessas questões, tratadas no corpo do trabalho ora apresentado

This dissertation asks whether frequency misspecification of a New Keynesian model

results in temporal aggregation bias of the Calvo parameter. First, when a

New Keynesian model is estimated at a quarterly frequency while the true

data generating process is the same but at a monthly frequency, the Calvo

parameter is upward biased and hence implies longer average price duration.

This suggests estimating a New Keynesian model at a monthly frequency may

yield different results. However, due to mixed frequency datasets in macro

time series recorded at quarterly and monthly intervals, an estimation

methodology is not straightforward. To accommodate mixed frequency datasets,

this paper proposes a data augmentation method borrowed from Bayesian

estimation literature by extending MCMC algorithm with

"Rao-Blackwellization" of the posterior density. Compared to two alternative

estimation methods in context of Bayesian estimation of DSGE models, this

augmentation method delivers lower root mean squared errors for parameters

of interest in New Keynesian model. Lastly, a medium scale New Keynesian

model is brought to the actual data, and the benchmark estimation, i.e. the

data augmentation method, finds that the average price duration implied by

the monthly model is 5 months while that by the quarterly model is 20.7

months.

Dissertation

Helicopter money is an extremely controversial topic that has been gaining a lot of attention over the last fiveve years or so. In this dissertation I will develop a DSGE model that attempts to explain how this particular form of money creation may afect in‡ation and the output gap. The model presented here characterizes helicopter money as permanent money supply and exploits the consequences of the central bank constraining its capacity to tighten monetary policy in the future by choosing a contemporaneous increase in helicopter money. The main factors behind the behavior of the output gap and infation are explained by the impact of this constraint upon the formation of future in‡ation and consumption expectations. The results lead us to the conclusion that for helicopter money to be considered as a viable policy option, the impact of the interest rate constraint on expected future consumption needs to be high enough so that it counter-balances its effect on expected future inflation.
O dinheiro de helicóptero é um tema extremamente controverso que tem merecido muita atenção no decorrer dos últimos 5 anos. Nesta dissertação irei desenvolver um modelo DSGE que procura explicar como é que esta forma particular de criação de moeda poderá afectar a infação e o hiato do produto. O modelo apresentado caracteriza o dinheiro de helicóptero como oferta de moeda permanente e explora as consequências do banco central restringir a sua capacidade de seguir uma politica monetária mais restritiva no futuro, aumentando a quantidade de dinheiro de helicóptero presente na economia. Os factores mais relevantes que explicam o comportamento do hiato do produto e da infação são o efeito desta restrição na formação de expectativas de in‡ação e de consumo futuros. Os resultados indicam que, para que o dinheiro de helicóptero seja considerado uma medida viável, o impacto da restrição da taxa de juro nas expectativas de consumo futuro precisa de ser grande o suficiente para contrabalançar o efeito de aumento da expetativa de inflação futura.

Cette thèse s’articule autour de trois chapitres indépendants qui s’inscrivent dans les champs de la macroéconomie, de l’économie monétaire et de la finance internationale. Dans le premier chapitre, je construis un modèle néo-keynesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude pour examiner les implications de la production domestique des ménages pour la politique monétaire. Le modèle proposé permet de reconcilier deux faits empiriques majeurs: la forte sensibilité du produit intérieur brut aux chocs monétaires (obtenue à partir des modèles VAR), et le faible degré de rigidité nominale observé dans les micro-données. Le deuxième chapitre étudie le role de la transformation structurelle (réallocation de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs) sur la volatilité de la production aggregée dans un panel de pays. Le troisième chapitre quant à lui met en exergue l’importance de la cartographie des échanges commerciaux pour le choix entre un régime de change fixe et l’arrimage à un panier de devises. "Household Production, Services and Monetary Policy" (Chapitre 1) part de l’observation selon laquelle les ménages peuvent produire à domicile des substituts aux services marchands, contrairement aux biens non durables qu’ils acquièrent presque exclusivement sur le marché. Dans ce contexte, ils procèdent à d’importants arbitrages entre produire les services à domicile ou les acquerir sur le marché, dépendamment des changements dans leur revenu. Pour examiner les implications de tels arbitrages (qui s’avèrent être importants dans les micro-données) le secteur domestique est introduit dans un modèle néo-keyenesien d’équilibre général sous incertitude à deux secteurs (le secteur des biens non durables et le secteur des services) autrement standard. Je montre que les firmes du secteur des services sont moins enclin à changer leurs prix du fait que les ménages ont l’option de produire soit même des services substituts. Ceci se traduit par la présence d’un terme endogène supplémentaire qui déplace la courbe de Phillips dans ce secteur. Ce terme croit avec le degré de substituabilité qui existe entre les services produits à domicile et ceux acquis sur le marché. Cet accroissement de la rigidité nominale amplifie la sensibilité de la production réelle aux chocs monétaires, notamment dans le secteur des services, ce qui est compatible avec l’évidence VAR selon laquelle les services de consommation sont plus sensibles aux variations de taux d’intérêt que les biens non durables. "Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output: A Cross-country Analysis" (Chapitre 2) est basée sur l’évidence empirique d’une relation négative entre la part de la main d’oeuvre allouée au secteur des services et la volatilité de la production aggrégée, même lorsque je contrôle pour les facteurs tels que le développement du secteur financier. Ce resultat aggregé est la conséquence des développements sectoriels: la productivité de la main d’oeuvre est beaucoup plus volatile dans l’agriculture et les industries manufacturières que dans les services. La production aggregée deviendrait donc mécaniquement moins volatile au fur et à mesure que la main d’oeuvre se déplace de l’agriculture et de la manufacture vers les services. Pour évaluer cette hypothèse, je calibre un modèle de transformation structurelle à l’économie américaine, que j’utilise ensuite pour générer l’allocation sectorielle de la main d’oeuvre dans l’agriculture, l’industrie et les services pour les autres pays de l’OCDE. Dans une analyse contre-factuelle, le modèle est utlisé pour restreindre la mobilité de la main d’oeuvre entre secteurs de façon endogène. Les calculs montrent alors que le déplacement de la main d’oeuvre vers le secteur des services réduit en effet la volatilité de la production aggregée. "Exchange Rate Volatility under Alternative Peg Regimes: Do Trade Patterns Matter?" (Chapitre 3) est une contribution à la litterature économique qui s’interesse au choix entre divers regimes de change. J’utilise les données mensuelles de taux de change bilatéraux et de commerce extérieur entre 1980 et 2010 pour les pays membre de l’Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). La monnaie de ces pays (le franc CFA) est arrimée au franc Francais depuis le milieu des années 40 et à l’euro depuis son introduction en 1999. Au moment de l’arrimage initial, la France était le principal partenaire commercial des pays de l’UEMOA. Depuis lors, et plus encore au cours des dix dernières années, la cartographie des échanges de l’union a significativement changé en faveur des pays du groupe des BICs, notamment la Chine. Je montre dans ce chapitre que l’arrimage à un panier de devises aurait induit une volatilité moins pronnoncée du taux de change effectif nominal du franc CFA au cours de la décennie écoulée, comparé à la parité fixe actuelle. Ce chapitre, cependant, n’aborde pas la question de taux de change optimal pour les pays de l’UEMOA, un aspect qui serait intéressant pour une recherche future.
This thesis includes three independent essays in the fields of macroeconomics, monetary economics and international finance. In the first essay, I build a new Keynesian DSGE model to examine the implications for monetary policy of household production. The proposed theory helps reconcile the relatively strong response of output to monetary policy shocks as suggested by VAR-based evidence and the low degree of price rigidity found in micro data. The second essay analyzes the role of structural transformation (the reallocation of labor across sectors overtime) in shaping the volatility of aggregate output across countries. Finally, the third essay illustrates the importance of trade patterns in choosing between a single currency peg and a peg to a composite basket of currencies. “Household Production, Services and Monetary Policy” (Chapter 1) builds on the observation that consumer services (unlike consumer nondurable) have close substitutes at home. Households may therefore switch between consuming home and market service as the real wage (the opportunity cost of working at home) changes. To study the implications of this arbitrage for monetary policy, I embed a household sector into an otherwise standard two-sector (a nondurable good sector and a service sector) new Keynesian DSGE model. The fact that households are able to produce services at home makes service sector’s firms more reluctant to change their price. This translates into an extra endogenous shift term in the new Keynesian Phillips that is increasing with the extent of substitutability between home and market services. This increased nominal rigidity endogenously amplifies the output response to monetary policy shock, especially in the service sector, which is consistent with VAR-based evidence in the paper that consumer services are more interest-rate sensitive than consumer nondurables. “Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output: A Cross-country Analysis” (Chapter 2) is based on the evidence of a negative relationship between the employment share of the service sector and the volatility of aggregate output, which I obtain after controlling for several factors (including the level of financial development). This aggregate result is driven by sectoral labor productivity differentials: Labor productivity is substantially more volatile in agriculture and manufacturing than in services. Aggregate output would therefore become mechanically more stable as labor shifts away from agriculture and manufacturing, and toward the service sector. To quantify this conjecture, I first calibrate a model of structural transformation (secular reallocation of labor across sectors) to the U.S. economy, which I use to match the time path of labor shares in agriculture, manufacturing and services across OECD countries. The model is subsequently used to conduct a set of counterfactual experiments in which labor is endogenously constrained from moving across sectors. Computations suggest that the shift of labor toward the services sector is indeed volatility-reducing. “Exchange Rate Volatility under Alternative Peg: Do Trade Patterns Matter?” (Chapter 3) is a contribution to the literature on the choice of exchange rate regimes. I use monthly bilateral exchange rate and external trade data from 1980 to 2010 for the member countries of the Western African and Monetary Union (WAEMU). These countries have their common currency (the CFA franc) pegged to the French franc since the mid-40s and to the euro since its introduction in 1999. At the time of the initial peg arrangement, France accounted for most of the external trade of WAEMU countries. Since then, and more notably since the early 2000s, the trade patterns of these countries shifted briskly away from France and other Euro area countries and towards the BICs (China in particular). The chapter finds that a peg to a composite basket of currencies would have led to a less volatile effective exchange rate over the last decade compare to the current hard peg. This chapter, however, does not derive an optimal exchange rate for WAEMU countries, which is an important area for further research.