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1
Mecking, E. "De kredietcrisis en de lessen van Kondratieff." Justitiële verkenningen 35, no. 6 (2009): 66–76. https://doi.org/10.5553/jv/016758502009035006005.
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The financial crisis and Kondratieff's lessons; a doom scenario The world is in the throes of the deepest economic depression since the 1930s. Worst is yet to come. The financial crisis has spread to the real economy on a global scale. A global recession combined with the current credit crunch is a rare, but a deadly cocktail. This will lead to a recession of unimaginable magnitude - a deflationary depression. This doom scenario is based on the conjuncture waves of the Russian economist Nikolai Dimitrievitsj Kondratieff (1892-1938) and the strong similarities between 1920-1929 and 1980-2000, both autumn seasons in the Kondratieff cycle. Soon it will become clear that all measures taken by governments have had only a little, temporary positive effect. The stock markets, housing markets and world economy will reach new depths in the coming decade. Social chaos will be the result. The history of the 1930s could serve as our guide here.
2
Иванова and O. Ivanova. "On Analyzing the Flow of Kondratieff Economic Cycles in France." Economics 3, no. 6 (2015): 41–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/16675.
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The course of economic processes in all the industrialized countries is characterized
 by cyclicality. Economic cycles affect the majority of spheres in any given national
 economy and are characterized by a variety of distinctive features. The concept
 of “long cycles” for a period of 40–60 years was introduced by the Soviet scientist
 Nikolai Kondratieff, and further these cycles have become known as the “Kondratieff
 long waves”. The change of cycles is associated with deep qualitative changes
 in the economy. Kondratieff economic cycle comprises four phases: recovery,
 boom, recession and depression. It is assumed that this theory of wave-like cyclical
 development should be comprehended as applied to the economy of France.
3
Gallois, Nicolas. "Clément Juglar (1819-1905) Nikolaï Kondratieff (1892-1938). Les cycles économiques." Sciences Humaines Les Essentiels, HS5 (2019): 129. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/sh.hs5.0129.
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4
Barnett, Vincent. "Which was the “Real” Kondratiev: 1925 or 1928?" Journal of the History of Economic Thought 24, no. 4 (2002): 475–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1042771022000029904.
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It is to be regretted that Nikolai Kondratiev's 1928 paper on long cycles—“The price dynamics of industrial and agricultural commodities: the theory of relative dynamics and conjuncture”—was omitted from the Pickering and Chatto English language edition of his works published in 1998. This is one of the two most important papers excluded from this edition, the other being the full text of his plan for agriculture and forestry, 1924–28. In response, this note discusses some modifications that occurred in Kondratiev's explanation of long cycles between 1925 and 1928, and puts to rest the suggestion that these changes might have taken place as the result of political factors rather than a genuine change of mind. I also counter some ofmy critics who have taken issue with my presentation of Kondratiev's conception of long cycles (most notably Jan Reijnders (2001) in this journal), and link this with a more general discussion of some of the methodological issues involved.
5
Zagorodniy, V. Ye, V. V. Zavalyuk, and S. V. Sakal. "Modern interpretation of the idea of cyclicity as regularity." E-learning teXnology 5 (December 15, 2021): 39–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.31865/2709-840052021246279.
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The work of many professionals is inevitably associated with the processing and analysis of vast amounts of data. Almost immeasurable amount of information needs to be systematized, reformatted using the methods of modern science. But historical parallels, the experience of past generations, the work of outstanding researchers allow us to look at the problems of modern society from a different angle. The task is to analyze and systematize the results of research proposed by a prominent scientist, specialist – Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev.
6
Sukhikh, V. V. "Economic and Political Views of Nikolai Kondratiev in 1913–1915 (Based on his Book “The Development of the Economy of Kineshma Zemstvo in Kostroma Province”)." AlterEconomics 19, no. 1 (2022): 40–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/altereconomics/2022.19-1.3.
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In 2022, academia will celebrate 130th anniversary of the outstanding Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev. Despite the great scholarly interest in Kondratiev’s mature work, his early studies are much less known. This paper analyzes Kondratiev’s economic and political views in 1913-1915, at the time of writing and publishing his first book “The Development of the Economy of Kineshma Zemstvo in Kostroma Province: Socio-Economic and Financial Study”. The article discusses Kondratiev’s views on society and economy in the prerevolutionary period. Kondratiev was a proponent of the positivist approach. The researcher, from Kondratiev’s point of view, should see patterns and trends of development behind facts and figures and not individual features of a specific zemstvo. Kondratiev adopted the Marxist approach to the structure of the social order, but denied the inevitable antagonism of classes. Kondratiev considered zemstvos as an example of effective cooperation of different classes as zemstvo leaders belonging to the noble class took care of the needs of the entire population. Thus, it can be argued that in 1913-1915, Kondratiev adhered to moderate socialist views and argued for gradual social reforms over the revolutionary path. Kondratiev’s approach was not dogmatic and he was open to all kinds of ideas and perspectives, regardless of which side their proponents were on. Nevertheless, he denied the role of individuals in history and saw people’s actions as nothing but a reflection of certain circumstances and class interests. The study of Kondratiev’s mature works will make it possible to better understand the evolution of the views of the outstanding economist, can become the basis for a deeper analysis of his classical works, will give an opportunity to take a new look at the development of domestic economic thought in the first third of the XX century.
7
Maevsky, V. I. "Ideas of Nikolai Kondratiev in the works of modern economists. Guest editorial." AlterEconomics 19, no. 1 (2022): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/altereconomics/2022.19-1.1.
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8
Louca, F. "Nikolai Kondratiev and the Early Consensus and Dissensions about History and Statistics." History of Political Economy 31, no. 1 (1999): 169–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-31-1-169.
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9
Akaev, A. A. "Nikolai Kondratiev’s Epoch-Making Discoveries and their Impact on Contemporary Economic Science." AlterEconomics 19, no. 1 (2022): 11–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/altereconomics/2022.19-1.2.
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The article describes 130th years since the birth of outstanding Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938) and the 100th anniversary of the publication of his main scientific work “World Economy and its conjunctures ...”. The article presents three his great discoveries: the long waves of innovation in economic growth ranging from forty to sixty years; the second, the dynamism and instability of the market economy, which was explained only later, at the end of the 20th century, by synergistic economics; and the third, the need for the government’s active response to crises in economy by stimulating the self-regulation mechanisms inherent in market relationships. Kondratiev’s theory predated Keynesianism, which appeared during the Great Depression in the 1930s. The long wave theory was taken further by Joseph A. Schumpeter in his famous theory of economic development in the 1930s. In addition, the article outlines the prospects of development of the ‘Schumpeterian synthesis’ combining contemporary economic theory with Kondratiev– Schumpeter’s theory of innovative cyclical economic development. The key principles of the long-term forecasting of socio-economic development from the perspective of Kondratiev’s long wave theory are highlighted. The study proposes an information model of technological progress suitable for long-term forecasting of economic and technological development in the 21st century. The most suitable modes of production of technological information for the development of the information (1982–2018) and digital (2018–2050) economies are described. A special focus is made on the case of the US economic development. Forecasts are calculated to describe the future trajectories of technological progress and economic growth in the digital era (2018–2042) in the upward phase of the 6th K-wave.
10
Bautin, V. M. "Nikolai Kondratiev and his role in developing farm economics and education in Russia." Izvestiâ Timirâzevskoj selʹskohozâjstvennoj akademii, no. 2 (2017): 134–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.26897/0021-342x-2017-2-134-153.
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AGANBEGYAN, ABEL G. "THE FOUNDING FATHERS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DOCTRINE IN THE YEARS OF THE GREAT TURNING POINT, THE TRANSITION TO A PLANNED SOCIALIST SYSTEM (N.D. KONDRATIEV, HIS ASSOCIATES — A.L. WEINSTEIN AND CONTEMPORARIES L.E. MINTS AND S.A. HEINMAN) ACCORDING TO PERSONAL MEMORIES." Scientific Works of the Free Economic Society of Russia 240, no. 2 (2023): 170–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.38197/2072-2060-2023-240-2-170-196.
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The article is devoted to the Russian economists, contemporaries of the “chief economist of the NEP” Nikolai Kondratiev — Albert Weinstein, Lev Mints and Semyon Heynman. All of them were repressed, spent many years in exile and, after being released in the 50s, returned to scientific research, participated in the development of Russian economics science in the 1960s and 70s, engaged in applied economic research, statistical and mathematical digital models, developed proposals for the socio-economic growth of the country. The author shares personal memories of these outstanding scientists, emphasizes their significant personal contribution to the development of Russian economic science.
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Jesus, Fernando Soares de, José Messias Bastos, and Edson de Morais Machado. "Os desafios à liderança americana nos séculos XX e XXI e a emergência dos e-commerces chineses." Geosul 38, no. 86 (2023): 94–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2177-5230.2023.e85416.
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Este artigo tem como objetivo compreender o emergente comércio eletrônico em suas relações com a lógica econômica posta entre o fim do século XX e o início do século XXI, em especial a partir da ascensão da China como potência política e econômica. Para tal, empregamos a compreensão de ciclos longos, criada por Nikolai Kondratiev e organizada por Schumpeter (1939). Como técnicas de pesquisa, foram feitas análises a relatórios financeiros de empresas do setor, e a dados sistematizados por consultorias especializadas. Como resultado, observou-se as tentativas de internacionalização da empresa americana Amazon Inc., em especial nos mercados emergentes, ao mesmo tempo que as empresas chinesas, notadamente a Alibaba, focam no fortalecimento no mercado doméstico.
13
Ustinov, A. B., and I. E. Loshchilov. "Nikolai Zabolotsky and His Artists." Studies in Theory of Literary Plot and Narratology 15, no. 1 (2020): 260–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.25205/2410-7883-2020-1-260-290.
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The essay reconstructs the history of Nikolai Zabolotsky’s relations with artists, starting with his debut book of poems “The Pillars,” published in February 1929 and throughout the 1930s. Zabolotsky can be considered an artist both in a broad (an artist as a creator) and in a professional sense: before “The Pillars,” he attended Pavel Filonov’s workshop, created some drawings, and designed his handwritten books using the technique of Filonov’s “analytical art.” He included some of these calligraphic manuscripts in his collection “Ararat” (1928). He also painted the cover putting in the center of the composition an image of a spread skin, borrowed from Vera Ermolaeva’s illustrations for his children’s book “Good Boots” (1928). The same year Zabolotsky was asked to prepare a collection of his poems for the “Publishing House of Writers in Leningrad.” He asked another artist Lev Yudin (1903–1941), who collaborated with Kazimir Malevich in Ginkhuk, to make a cover for “The Pillars.” However, the publishing house went with a different design, and Yudin’s cover was lost. He also worked on the design of Zabolotsky’s book “The Circus,” which he envisioned as a livre d’artiste, as well as on illustrations for a never published story “The Indians” (1929). Vera Ermolaeva (1893–1937) made her own cover for “The Pillars” a study of which is preserved in the Russian Museum. She also collaborated with Yudin on drawing a poster for the famous OBERIU performance “Three Left Hours,” held on January 24, 1928, at the Leningrad Press House. Her remarkable cover for “The Pillars” is discussed here in connection with the poems, selected by Zabolotsky for his first book. His creative collaboration with the artists found its realization in the field of children’s literature, primarily in the famous magazines “Hedgehog” and “Siskin,” published under the editorial supervision of Samuil Marshak. The publication of Zabolotsky’s “The Tale of the Crooked Man” (1933) in “Siskin” magazine is of particular interest. The poem was illuminated by Pavel Kondratiev (1902–1985), who also attended Filonov’s workshop, and depicted the poet together with his son Nikita in one of his illustrations.
14
Morgan, Mary S. "Narrative Inference with and without Statistics." History of Political Economy 53, no. 6 (2021): 113–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-9414803.
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This article investigates the role played by narrative in drawing inferences from statistics before the adoption of formal inference regimes in economics. Two well-known, and exemplary, cases of informal inference provide the materials. Nikolai Kondratiev’s struggles to make inferences about the existence of his “long waves” from heaps of statistics in the 1920s contrast sharply with Thomas Robert Malthus’s confident account of demographic-economic oscillations made on the basis of the limited numbers available in the late eighteenth century. Comparison of their inferential reasoning, using detailed textual analysis, casts attention on the important role of narrative. These cases prompt the notion of “narrative inference”: where informal statistical inference depends on narrative accounts—used to make sense of the numbers by Malthus or to add sense onto the numbers by Kondratiev.
15
Spechler, Martin C. "The Long Wave Cycle. By Nikolai Kondratieff, Translated by Guy Daniels. New York: Richardson & Snyder, 1984. Pp. 138. $30.00. $100 limited edition." Journal of Economic History 45, no. 3 (1985): 773–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s002205070003504x.
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Иванова and O. Ivanova. "Technological Structures and Their Role in Economic Development." Economics 3, no. 3 (2015): 24–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/11579.
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Today, it should be recognized that among the causes of the economic crises are
 not sufficiently taken into account the impact of technological aspects, namely
 the possibility of scientific and technical progress. The term “technological
 system” is used in the national economic science as an analogue of the concept
 of “wave of innovation”, it was first proposed in 1986 by Soviet economists D.S.
 Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev in the article “Theoretical and applied aspects of Scientific
 and technological progress.” The way of understanding of technological
 structure, is the complex of mastered and breakthrough revolutionary inventions,
 providing a quantitative and qualitative leap in the development of the productive
 forces of human society. As a core set of technological structures the used
 technological processes are indicated, which, in turn, are the basis of the relevant
 production technology, linked to certain technological chains of the same type. It
 is believed that economic development is directly linked with the development of
 new technological chains, which are formed on the basis of the combined
 conjugate technological sets, which form the new technological order. That is
 why economists focus again turned to the theory of the cycles of the Russian
 economist Nikolai Kondratiev. It is assumed that the long-known theory of the
 wave-like nature of economic development is necessary to understand in relation
 to modern conditions, namely the use of the Kondratiev presentation about the
 short, medium and long waves concerning the economic situation of the modern
 states.
17
Louçã, Francisco. "Nikolai D. Kondratiev, The Works of Nikolai D. Kondratiev, edited by Makasheva Natalia, Warren J. Samuels, and Barnett Vincent. Translation by Stephen S. Wilson (London: Pickering & Chatto1998), four volumes, including a general glossary of terms and an index, pp. 1800. $550.00. ISBN 1-85196-260-3." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 21, no. 2 (1999): 203–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837200003187.
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Jesus, Fernando Soares de, and José Messias Bastos. "Gênese e Evolução do Autosserviço de Alimentos na Fachada Atlântica de Santa Catarina." GEOGRAFIA (Londrina) 31, no. 1 (2022): 95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5433/2447-1747.2022v31n1p95.
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O objetivo deste artigo é descrever e explicar o dinamismo empresarial e de mercado do setor de autosserviço de alimentos na Fachada Atlântica do Estado de Santa Catarina. Como referencial teórico, utilizamos a categoria de formação sócio-espacial, de Milton Santos, aliada à perspectiva da pequena produção mercantil, de Armen Mamigonian, e articulada com a Teoria dos Ciclos Longos, criada por Nikolai Kondratiev. Constatou-se que as gêneses desses empreendimentos estão sustentadas sobre um processo de pequena produção mercantil, tendo em vista que o acúmulo de capital via um sistema colônia-venda possibilitou o surgimento, de baixo para cima, de pequenos capitais de descendentes de origem italiana nos vales atlânticos florestados da Fachada Atlântica. A expansão das redes provém de uma lógica de construção de um parque industrial nacional voltado aos bens de consumo duráveis, que permitiu a produção de veículos e a expansão da malha rodoviária. Assim, como consequência dessa expansão, diminuíram as distâncias relativas necessárias ao processo logístico. As principais redes, desse modo, se organizaram a partir de diferentes estratégias geoeconômicas, empresariais, espaciais e logísticas para se firmarem em um cenário de acirramento da concorrência, impedindo, salve raras exceções, a inserção e consolidação de redes de fora do estado no denso sistema urbano de Santa Catarina.
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Кошелев, В. В. "«Гусли Глинки»: из истории изучения музейного предмета". OPERA MUSICOLOGICA 17 / 1, № 2025. 17 /1 (2025): 96–128. https://doi.org/10.26156/operamus.2025.17.1.006.
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Псалтиревидные гусли «Шереметевского дворца — Музея музыки» снабжены текстом от 3 февраля 1907 г. о том, что они адресованы М. И. Глинке. М. Ф. Леонова и М. Г. Кондратьев без непосредственного обращения к этим гуслям пришли к следующим выводам: а) изначально инструмент был чувашским «кёсле» работы П. Е. Волкова; б) в 1902 г. мастер экспонировал его на «Всероссийской выставке <…>» в Санкт-Петербурге; в) тогда же Н. Ф. Финдейзен приобрел кёсле для музея Санкт-Петербургской консерватории; г) было решено: богато инкрустировав кёсле, «превратить» его в русские гусли и 3 февраля 1907 г. почтить ими 50-летие со дня смерти М. И. Глинки; д) гусли музея есть инкрустированный кёсле работы П. Е. Волкова. Если бы исследователи осуществили сравнительное изучение музейных гуслей и сохранившегося кёсле работы П. Е. Волкова, то убедились бы, что инструменты не имели никакого отношения друг к другу. Автор статьи доказывает обратное: кёсле 1902 г. и музейные гусли существовали и продолжают существовать параллельно. The psalter-shaped Gusli of the Sheremetev Palace — Museum of Music are addressed February 3, 1907 to Mikhail I. Glinka. Marina F. Leonova and Mikhail G. Kondratiev came to the conclusions by absentee appeal to these Gusli: a) initially the instrument was a Chuvash “Kěsle” made by Pavel E. Volkov; b) in 1902, the maker exhibited it at the “All-Russian Handicraft Industry Exhibition” in St. Petersburg; c) at the same time, Nikolai F. Findeisen acquired a Kěsle for the Museum of the St. Petersburg Conservatory; d) it was decided, having richly inlaid the Kěsle, to “turn” it into Russian Gusli and on February 3, 1907, to honor with them the 50th anniversary of the death of M. I. Glinka; e) The Gusli of the Museum has an inlaid P. E. Volkov’s Kěsle. If Marina Leonova and Mikhail Kondratiev had resorted to face-to-face acquaintance with Museum’s Gusli, searching for other preserved copies of Pavel Volkov’s work, they would have been convinced that the instruments had no relation to each other. The author of this article proves that the Kěsle of 1902 and the Museum’s Gusli existed and continue to exist in parallel.
20
Kirdina-Chandler, S. G. "Economic Theory, Ideology, and Economic Interests." AlterEconomics 19, no. 1 (2022): 71–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/altereconomics/2022.19-1.5.
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The social significance of economic theory is widely discussed in Russia and in the world. The role of economic theory depends on the efforts of theoretical economists themselves as well as on the context of its development. Ideology and economic interests are important elements of this context. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine these elements and the relationship between economic theory, ideology and economic interests in Western countries, in China and the USSR by comparing neoclassical economic theory,“political economy with Chinese characteristics”, and political economy developed in the early Soviet period. Methodologically, the study relies on the methods of cross-country analysis, case study and biographical analysis. The study comprises three levels: individual, institutional, and societal. The individual level is represented by individual economists, more specifically, the focus will be made on Nikolai Kondratiev’s views and ideological preferences. The institutional level is represented by communities of economists working within common areas of interest. The societal level means that economic theory, ideology and economic interests are considered at the level of society as a whole. As a result of the study, similar patterns of development of neoclassical economic theory, Soviet political economy, and “political economy with Chinese characteristics” were identified. These similarities can be explained by the role of economic theory in society and the way economic knowledge is organized and functions. It was also shown that a mismatch between the development of economic theory, ideology and economic interests may have a negative impact. It was observed towards individual economists, what is shown in the example of Kondratiev, and specific areas of economic theory development in the period of Soviet political economy.
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Kirdina-Chandler, S. G. "Economists of the Russian Avant-Garde." AlterEconomics 22, no. 1 (2025): 141–60. https://doi.org/10.31063/altereconomics/2025.22-1.10.
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The paper highlights the contributions of early 20th-century Russian economists who were ahead of their time. Referred to as the “economists of the Russian avant-garde,” they are considered part of the broader Russian avant-garde movement — a cultural phenomenon associated with creative innovation in times of social upheaval and increasing complexity. Such periods, known as systemic crises, necessitate going beyond established knowledge in both art and science. Key figures in the Russian economic avant-garde include Pyotr Kropotkin (1842–1921), Alexander Bogdanov (1873–1928), and Nikolai Kondratiev (1892–1938). The paper demonstrates the contextual commonality between the emergence of the Russian avant-garde in art and economic thought, emphasizing the multidisciplinary nature of its leading figures. It also explores the dialectical dynamic of the avant-garde in Russian art and socio-economic science: on the one hand, its representatives push beyond accepted norms, challenging prevailing paradigms; on the other, they take a reflective step back, re-engaging with traditional Russian cultural ideas and structurally clearer forms. This interplay enables creative perception to restore a sense of coherence in a world fragmented by upheaval. In the early 20th century, this dynamic unfolded against the backdrop of European revolutions and the transformation of social structures struggling to manage increasing industrial and socio-economic complexity. In response, Russian avant-garde artists and economists introduced new artistic systems and scientific theories. The paper also draws parallels between the challenges of the early 20th century and those of the early 21st century, highlighting a similar trend in contemporary Russian economic thought. This underscores the need to reintroduce the Russian avant-garde economists into economics as an academic discipline.
22
KOROLKOV, OLEG. "Research on the problems of cooperation in Russian historical science." Metamorphoses of history, no. 30 (2023): 0. http://dx.doi.org/10.37490/s241436770028136-9.
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The article is devoted to a historiographical analysis of scientific literature, which touches on various aspects of the development of domestic cooperation in the 20s. XX century. It is noted that the development of cooperation in all spheres of national economic life, and, above all, in agriculture, is one of the important factors in ensuring socio-economic progress, national and food security. An important place in the article is occupied by the coverage of the issue of developing problems of cooperation in the 1920s, when it was mainly represented by the works of world-recognized theorists and practitioners of cooperation of the pre-revolutionary generation: A. V. Chayanov, S. L. Maslov, N. P. Oganovsky, N. D. Kondratiev and others. Some attention is paid to the issues of periodization of the study of the problem of cooperative construction, the socio-economic nature of cooperation, the historiography of agrarian theories of representatives of the “old school of Russian cooperators”, studies that considered vertical type cooperation, which developed during the years of the new economic policy, as an alternative to Stalinist collectivization. The great importance in the development of cooperative issues of Soviet historians of pre-perestroika and perestroika times V. P. Danilov, V. P. Dmitrenko, V. V. Kabanov, L. F. Morozov, V. I. Pogudin, V. M. Selunskaya and others is noted, as well as numerous works of Russian scientists on agrarian and peasant issues in the 1990s and early 2020s: A. O. Bunin, A. Yu. Davydov, S. A. Esikov, A. V. Ivanov, A. A. Nikolaev, N L. Rogalina, L. E. Fain, etc.
23
Chalyi, A. "“The Clash of Theoretizations”: the Case of the Ottoman Empire in the XVIIIth century." Problems of World History, no. 22 (October 15, 2023): 43–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.46869/2707-6776-2023-22-4.
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Article deals with some common theoretical questions and theories regarding the Ottoman Empire as an interesting matter to prove them right or wrong, and how they work on particular historical material. For such reasons several key theories will be used: modernization theory, world-system analysis, divergence theory, historical sociology, class struggle theory, another point of view is Ray Dalio’s concept of “big curve” and economic cycles theory, depicted in Clement Juglar, Tugan-Baranovsky and Nikolai Kondratiev works along with Oded Lagor’s theory of unified growth. Author tries to imply how these theories explain or could explain the magistral way of development in the XVIII century and how Ottoman history is comparable to other states. Main results are next: from modernization theory prospects Ottomans faced couple short periods of what we can call modernization (improvement or reestablishing institutions and the way they perform their strict duties) during the “Tulip Era” (1703-1730), during major confrontations with European powers (1750-1770) and by the beginning or reign of Selim III from 1789. All those endeavors were different in spheres. lasting and methods, but pursuing one goal – to emulate European experience using Islamic and strictly Ottoman background – creating a well-organized state, able to withstand Europe. Due to world-system analysis in the XVIII century Ottoman Empire inadvertently lost its superpower status, diminishing to regional power. Also, they shifted from semi-periphery to periphery, a process which has been proceeding for all of the XVIII century and ended in 1839. From a sociological point of view, Ottoman society began to polarize – both in territorial and functional ways. Territorial – local elites began to grow in wealth and question central government power, creating local myths, dealing with non-Muslim and tribal minorities. Functional – due to absence of large-scale industrial manufacturing and consequently absence of middle class in European view, Ottoman trading elites profited as mediators for Europeans and consequently didn’t grow as “Third power” to provide pressure on their government. Ray Dalio’s “big curve” concept was chosen due to its nearly absence in current research, and it is shown that it is too abstract and uses non-qualified criteria to make any probable conclusion, whether state is fine or on the verge of collapse. Economic activity cycles concept shows that Ottomans situated in the wholesale trend of the XVIII century – diminishing prices for grain and rising activity in the credit sphere.
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Leonid, Grinin, Tausch Arno, and Korotayev Andrey. "The System of Economic Cycles, and the Place of Akamatsu Waves Within Them." March 27, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.677.
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In 1937, the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu discovered specific links between the rise and decline of the global peripheries. Akamatsu’s theory of development describes certain mechanisms whose working results in the narrowing of the gap between the level of development of the economy of developing and developed countries, and, thus, in the re-structuring of the relationships between the global core and the global periphery. Akamatsu developed his model on the basis of his analysis of the economic development of Japan before World War II, with a special emphasis on the development of the Japanese textile industry. Akamatsu’s catch-up development includes three phases: import of goods, organization of the production of previously imported products, and export of those goods. This model proved to be productive for analyzing the development of many other developing countries, especially in East Asia, making the theory of flying geese popular among the economists of these countries, as well as the whole world. The “flying geese” model produces certain swings that may be denoted as Akamatsu waves. Akamatsu waves may be defined as cycles (with a period ranging from 20 to 60 years) that are connected with convergence and divergence of core and periphery of the World System in a way that explains cyclical upward and downward swings (at global and national levels) in the movements of the periphery countries as they catch up with the richer ones.
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Grinin, Leonid, and Andrey Korotayev. "Introduction. The Heritage of N. D. Kondratieff in the Context of Modern Problems of the World Economy." November 14, 2019. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3686021.
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There are researchers whose problems and theories remain relevant for a long time after their death. Nikolai Kondratieff, an outstanding Russian economist, of course, is among them. He is one of those whose name is well-known around the world. On the occasion of the 125th anniversary of Kondratieff's birth and the 80th anniversary of his death which we commemorated respectively in 2017 and 2018 it is all the more important to highlight the relevance of his ideas. The papers of this issue are dedicated to the link between Kondratieff's ideas and the problems of modern economy and economic science.
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ISAIC, Radu. "Analysis of Economic Cycles in Kondratieff’s Long Cycle Theory and in Bejan’s Constructal Theory." Oeconomica 30, no. 1 (2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/oec/2021/30/1.07.
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Academic discourse has recently seen an increase in its attention to the emergence of a new crisis. As usual, every well-known economist, university professor and researcher attempts to make theoretical or practical arguments about how a hypothetical crisis unfolds and to identify its possible underlying causes. The desire for notoriety pushes economists to random expectations. Slightly panic-stricken, economists adept at different theoretical approaches to business cycles predict a bleak future. Several schools of economic thought have provided different explanations for crises and economic cycles (at a first count, there are about 12 more significant ones and 2-3 more secondary ones); to which we may add the explanations of historians, sociologists, etc. In economics textbooks, four names appear more frequently in the chapters on economic cycles: Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznetz and Kondratieff; and there are often explanations of cycles in the Keynesian line of thinking. Usually, the focus of the textbooks falls on Nikolai Kondratieff’s long cycles. Although the eponymous economist did not give clear explanations as to the causes of cycle production and their identification is empirical, his followers have identified this type of cycle for more than 1000 years. It therefore cannot be a mere coincidence. The question is: can we bring something new to this field? We think so. And we believe that we can explain the issues that have escaped Kondratieff, we can especially identify the causes of long cycles. How do we propose to accomplish this? The answer lies in using Professor Adrian Bejan’s Constructal Theory. This theory speaks of the economy in terms of flow systems: systems that evolve and grow to facilitate the flow as well as decrease the resistances and spread them evenly throughout the systems involved.
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Aguirre, Teresa. "Ciclo largo y sistema financiero: Crisis, contracción del crédito y ganancia." Ola Financiera 10, no. 28 (2019). http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/fe.18701442e.2017.28.69307.
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<p>Los ciclos económicos y el sistema financiero se relacionan de diferentes maneras, una de las más destacas que han analizado la relación entre el ciclo económico y finanzas, ha sido el estudio de las ondas largas o ciclos Kondratieff. Otra forma de análisis ha sido a través del ciclo monetario que conduce a las crisis financieras (Minsky y Kindleberger entre los más conocidos) y finalmente una manera distinta ha sido el estudio de las particularidades de cada ciclo de auge-frenesí financiero y declive. Este trabajo propone un breve recuento de cómo se ha analizado la relación: capital productivo y financiero en las ondas largas, a través del planteamiento de tres de tres autores que han marcado hitos en el análisis: Nikolai Kondratieff, Ernest Mandel y Carlota Pérez. Nuestro objetivo es indagar sobre una pregunta central que se hace de manera reiterada: ¿por qué a pesar de la revolución científico-técnica basada en la informática, con el desarrollo de la robótica, cibernética, biotecnología y nanotecnología, no se ha logrado una etapa de crecimiento sólida y sostenida que dé lugar a una etapa expansiva.</p><p> </p>
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Vianna Franco, Marco P., Leonardo Costa Ribeiro, and Eduardo da Motta e. Albuquerque. "BEYOND RANDOM CAUSES: HARMONIC ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS CYCLES AT THE MOSCOW CONJUNCTURE INSTITUTE." Journal of the History of Economic Thought, April 19, 2022, 1–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837221000092.
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This article proposes a historical assessment of harmonic analysis of business cycles and its ability to both decompose and build cycles, as received at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It traces how the Fourier transform arrived at the Institute, mediated by Henry L. Moore, in the works and actions of Albert Vainshtein, Nikolai Chetverikov, and Nikolai Kondratiev, ultimately leading to Eugen Slutsky’s well-known 1927 article “The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes.” Although the evidence does not warrant the assumption that there was an orchestrated effort at the Institute to push forward a research agenda on harmonic analysis of business cycles, it certainly unfolded as more than the summation of random events and individual incursions. Moreover, the Institute as a whole could have produced much more on this matter if it had escaped Stalinist oppression for at least a few more years.
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Malkov, Sergey. "Ageev A.I., Myasoedov B.A. The Bastille of Suzdal. Essays and Comments on the Tale and Letters of Nikolai Kondratiev to Alyonushka. Pitirim Sorokin and Nikolai Kondratiev International Institute, Institute for Economic Strategies, 2018. 360 p." Russian Foundation for Basic Research Journal. Humanities and social sciences, December 31, 2020, 155–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22204/2587-8956-2020-098-01-155-158.
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"Awards and Prizes." Вестник Российской академии наук 93, no. 5 (2023): 489–500. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s0869587323050122.
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V.M. Vasil’ev was awarded the 2022 Primakov Gold Medal. E.P. Velikhov and M.V. Koval’chuk were awarded the 2023 Kurchatov Gold Medal. M.N. Erokhin was awarded the 2023 Goryachkin Gold Medal. L.V. Kireicheva was awarded the 2022 Kostyakov Gold Medal. E.A. Korneva was awarded the 2022 Davydovskii Gold Medal. A.I. Martynov was awarded the 2022 Botkin Gold Medal. S.S. Pertsov was awarded the 2023 Anokhin Gold Medal. M.I. Sekacheva was awarded the 2022 Blokhin Gold Medal. D.I. Berman was awarded the 2022 Sukachev Prize. A.B. Vasil’eva was awarded the 2022 Schmalhausen Prize. A.K. Vershovskii and A.K. Dmitriev were awarded the 2022 Rozhdestvenskii Prize. A.A. Galyaev, P.V. Lysenko, and V.P. Yakhno were awarded the 2022 Petrov Prize. S.V. Golubev, I.V. Izotov, and V.A. Skalyga were awarded the 2022 Artsimovich Prize. T.A. Gorshkova was awarded the 2022 Timiryazev Prize. E.A. Il’in was awarded the 2022 Orbeli Prize. S.N. Kochetkov, L.A. Aleksandrova, and A.L. Khandazhinskaya were awarded the 2022 Shemyakin Prize. V.I. Maevskii, S.Yu. Malkov, and A.A. Rubinshtein were awarded the 2022 Kondratiev Prize. A.E. Mironov was awarded the 2022 Lyapunov Prize. S.L. Nikolaev was awarded the 2022 Pushkin Prize. K.V. Titov, G.V. Gurin, and P.K. Konosavskii were awarded the 2021 Golitsyn Prize. V.Yu. Khomich and S.I. Moshkunov were awarded the 2021 Yablochkov Prize.
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"Economic Crises from the Third Century to the Present Day: Cyclicity, Nature and the Logic of Shocks of the Modern." Philosophical Literary Journal Logos 28, no. 6 (2019): 27–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/0869-5377-2018-6-27-69.
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From 2008 to 2009 and from 2013 to 2016, the world economy faced two waves of one of the most severe crises in history. This crisis was attributed to a number of mistakes made by financiers and regulators or given the usual explanation of overproduction (a crisis typical of the “ten-year” cycle). But the current crisis is due to a more complex cyclical feature of capitalism. It is one of the great crises that begin and end long waves in the development of capitalism and that first took hold in the 1770s. Nikolai Kondratiev suggested that the cycle (of upward and downward waves) begins with a major crisis in the economy. In reality, such crises are found at the junction of the waves. The author emphasizes that these crises emerge as part of a grand cycle within industrial capitalism. They alter the conditions for growth in the worldwide economy and in national ones while facilitating the development of new industries or the expansion of the global market. These crises alter the economic process so deeply that they play out over years rather than months, while ordinary commercial and industrial crises seldom match their severity and duration. Crises then come in two forms — major and ordinary. There are other economic crises parallel to these that restructure socio-economic relations. Crises of that kind took place in the 3rd and 14th centuries. This article examines crises throughout the entire history of market systems, including mercantile and industrial capitalism. Particular emphasis is given to the current global economic crisis, the contradictions that caused it, and the contradictions left in its wake. The author also identifies preconditions for overcoming those lingering contradictions and outlines the prospects for a new economic recovery.