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1
Adams, David K., and Andrew C. Comrie. "The North American Monsoon." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78, no. 10 (1997): 2197–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2197:tnam>2.0.co;2.
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Grantz, Katrina, Balaji Rajagopalan, Martyn Clark, and Edith Zagona. "Seasonal Shifts in the North American Monsoon." Journal of Climate 20, no. 9 (2007): 1923–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4091.1.
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Abstract Analysis is performed on the spatiotemporal attributes of North American monsoon system (NAMS) rainfall in the southwestern United States. Trends in the timing and amount of monsoon rainfall for the period 1948–2004 are examined. The timing of the monsoon cycle is tracked by identifying the Julian day when the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the seasonal rainfall total have accumulated. Trends are assessed using the robust Spearman rank correlation analysis and the Kendall–Theil slope estimator. Principal component analysis is used to extract the dominant spatial patterns and these are correlated with antecedent land–ocean–atmosphere variables. Results show a significant delay in the beginning, peak, and closing stages of the monsoon in recent decades. The results also show a decrease in rainfall during July and a corresponding increase in rainfall during August and September. Relating these attributes of the summer rainfall to antecedent winter–spring land and ocean conditions leads to the proposal of the following hypothesis: warmer tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and cooler northern Pacific SSTs in the antecedent winter–spring leads to wetter than normal conditions over the desert Southwest (and drier than normal conditions over the Pacific Northwest). This enhanced antecedent wetness delays the seasonal heating of the North American continent that is necessary to establish the monsoonal land–ocean temperature gradient. The delay in seasonal warming in turn delays the monsoon initiation, thus reducing rainfall during the typical early monsoon period (July) and increasing rainfall during the later months of the monsoon season (August and September). While the rainfall during the early monsoon appears to be most modulated by antecedent winter–spring Pacific SST patterns, the rainfall in the later part of the monsoon seems to be driven largely by the near-term SST conditions surrounding the monsoon region along the coast of California and the Gulf of California. The role of antecedent land and ocean conditions in modulating the following summer monsoon appears to be quite significant. This enhances the prospects for long-lead forecasts of monsoon rainfall over the southwestern United States, which could have significant implications for water resources planning and management in this water-scarce region.
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Vera, C., W. Higgins, J. Amador, et al. "Toward a Unified View of the American Monsoon Systems." Journal of Climate 19, no. 20 (2006): 4977–5000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3896.1.
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Abstract An important goal of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) research on the American monsoon systems is to determine the sources and limits of predictability of warm season precipitation, with emphasis on weekly to interannual time scales. This paper reviews recent progress in the understanding of the American monsoon systems and identifies some of the future challenges that remain to improve warm season climate prediction. Much of the recent progress is derived from complementary international programs in North and South America, namely, the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and the Monsoon Experiment South America (MESA), with the following common objectives: 1) to understand the key components of the American monsoon systems and their variability, 2) to determine the role of these systems in the global water cycle, 3) to improve observational datasets, and 4) to improve simulation and monthly-to-seasonal prediction of the monsoons and regional water resources. Among the recent observational advances highlighted in this paper are new insights into moisture transport processes, description of the structure and variability of the South American low-level jet, and resolution of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the core monsoon regions. NAME and MESA are also driving major efforts in model development and hydrologic applications. Incorporated into the postfield phases of these projects are assessments of atmosphere–land surface interactions and model-based climate predictability experiments. As CLIVAR research on American monsoon systems evolves, a unified view of the climatic processes modulating continental warm season precipitation is beginning to emerge.
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Stríkis, Nicolás M., Francisco W. Cruz, Eline A. S. Barreto, et al. "South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 15 (2018): 3788–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717784115.
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Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.
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Meehl, Gerald A., Julie M. Arblaster, David M. Lawrence, et al. "Monsoon Regimes in the CCSM3." Journal of Climate 19, no. 11 (2006): 2482–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3745.1.
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Abstract Simulations of regional monsoon regimes, including the Indian, Australian, West African, South American, and North American monsoons, are described for the T85 version of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and compared to observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type SST-forced simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3) at T42 and T85. There are notable improvements in the regional aspects of the precipitation simulations in going to the higher-resolution T85 compared to T42 where topography is important (e.g., Ethiopian Highlands, South American Andes, and Tibetan Plateau). For the T85 coupled version of CCSM3, systematic SST errors are associated with regional precipitation errors in the monsoon regimes of South America and West Africa, though some aspects of the monsoon simulations, particularly in Asia, improve in the coupled model compared to the SST-forced simulations. There is very little realistic intraseasonal monsoon variability in the CCSM3 consistent with earlier versions of the model. Teleconnections to the tropical Pacific are well simulated for the South Asian monsoon.
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Gutzler, D. S., L. N. Long, J. Schemm, et al. "Simulations of the 2004 North American Monsoon: NAMAP2." Journal of Climate 22, no. 24 (2009): 6716–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3138.1.
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Abstract The second phase of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Model Assessment Project (NAMAP2) was carried out to provide a coordinated set of simulations from global and regional models of the 2004 warm season across the North American monsoon domain. This project follows an earlier assessment, called NAMAP, that preceded the 2004 field season of the North American Monsoon Experiment. Six global and four regional models are all forced with prescribed, time-varying ocean surface temperatures. Metrics for model simulation of warm season precipitation processes developed in NAMAP are examined that pertain to the seasonal progression and diurnal cycle of precipitation, monsoon onset, surface turbulent fluxes, and simulation of the low-level jet circulation over the Gulf of California. Assessment of the metrics is shown to be limited by continuing uncertainties in spatially averaged observations, demonstrating that modeling and observational analysis capabilities need to be developed concurrently. Simulations of the core subregion (CORE) of monsoonal precipitation in global models have improved since NAMAP, despite the lack of a proper low-level jet circulation in these simulations. Some regional models run at higher resolution still exhibit the tendency observed in NAMAP to overestimate precipitation in the CORE subregion; this is shown to involve both convective and resolved components of the total precipitation. The variability of precipitation in the Arizona/New Mexico (AZNM) subregion is simulated much better by the regional models compared with the global models, illustrating the importance of transient circulation anomalies (prescribed as lateral boundary conditions) for simulating precipitation in the northern part of the monsoon domain. This suggests that seasonal predictability derivable from lower boundary conditions may be limited in the AZNM subregion.
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Hu, Qi, and Song Feng. "Variation of the North American Summer Monsoon Regimes and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation." Journal of Climate 21, no. 11 (2008): 2371–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli2005.1.
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Abstract The North American summer monsoon holds the key to understanding warm season rainfall variations in the region from northern Mexico to the Southwest and the central United States. Studies of the monsoon have pictured mosaic submonsoonal regions and different processes influencing monsoon variations. Among the influencing processes is the “land memory,” showing primarily the influence of the antecedent winter season precipitation (snow) anomalies in the Northwest on summer rainfall anomalies in the Southwest. More intriguingly, the land memory has been found to vary at the multidecadal time scale. This memory change may actually reflect multidecadal variations of the atmospheric circulation in the North American monsoon region. This notion is examined in this study by first establishing the North American monsoon regimes from relationships of summer rainfall variations in central and western North America, and then quantifying their variations at the multidecadal scale in the twentieth century. Results of these analyses show two monsoon regimes: one featured with consistent variations in summer rainfall in west Mexico and the Southwest and an opposite variation pattern in the central United States, and the other with consistent rainfall variations in west Mexico and the central United States but different from the variations in the southwest United States. These regimes have alternated at multidecadal scales in the twentieth century. This alternation of the regimes is found to be in phase with the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In warm and cold phases of the AMO, distinctive circulation anomalies are found in central and western North America, where lower than average pressure prevailed in the warm phase and the opposite anomaly in the cold phase. Associated wind anomalies configured different patterns for moisture transport and may have contributed to the development and variation of the monsoon regimes. These results indicate that investigations of the effects of AMO and its interaction with the North Pacific circulations could lead to a better understanding of the North American monsoon variations.
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Means, James D. "GPS Precipitable Water as a Diagnostic of the North American Monsoon in California and Nevada." Journal of Climate 26, no. 4 (2013): 1432–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00185.1.
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Abstract Precipitable water derived from archived global positioning system (GPS) zenith travel-time delays is used to describe the seasonal and interannual variation of the North American monsoon in California and Nevada. A 3-hourly dataset of precipitable water from 2003 to 2009, for over 500 sites in California and Nevada using temperature and pressure interpolated from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), is constructed to study the temporal and spatial extent of the North American monsoon in the desert regions of California and Nevada. The statistical distribution of precipitable water values is shown to delineate the region that is most often affected by the monsoonal influence. A normalized precipitable water index is employed to indicate when the monsoon starts and stops and to investigate spatial variability. The GPS network provides much higher spatial resolution than other meteorological networks using surface-based methods, such as dewpoint criteria and rainfall, and is seen to contain comparable ability in capturing temporal variations. This dataset reveals the northwestward propagation of the monsoon onset both synoptically and seasonally. The GPS observations indicate that in the mean the decay of the monsoon is less well defined than the onset. Seven-year reanalysis 700-mb geopotential height composites for the monsoon onset and 3 days prior indicate that the onset of the monsoon is associated with a shift in the synoptic pattern characterized by upper-level high pressure building from the east and offshore troughing retreating to the northwest.
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Bosmans, J. H. C., S. S. Drijfhout, E. Tuenter, L. J. Lourens, F. J. Hilgen, and S. L. Weber. "Monsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCM." Climate of the Past Discussions 7, no. 5 (2011): 3609–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-7-3609-2011.
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Abstract. In this study we use a sophisticated high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, EC-Earth, to investigate the effect of Mid-Holocene orbital forcing on summer monsoons on both hemispheres. During the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), there was more summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere than today, which intensified the meridional temperature and pressure gradients. Over North Africa, monsoonal precipitation is intensified through increased landward monsoon winds and moisture advection as well as decreased moisture convergence over the oceans and more convergence over land compared to the pre-industrial simulation. Precipitation also extends further north as the ITCZ shifts northward in response to the stronger poleward gradient of insolation. This increase and poleward extent is stronger than in most previous ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations. In north-westernmost Africa, precipitation extends up to 35° N. Over tropical Africa, internal feedbacks completely overcome the direct warming effect of increased insolation. We also find a weakened African Easterly Jet. Over Asia, monsoonal precipitation during the Mid-Holocene is increased as well, but the response is different than over North-Africa. There is more convection over land at the expense of convection over the ocean but precipitation does not extend further northward, monsoon winds over the ocean are weaker and the surrounding ocean does not provide more moisture. On the Southern Hemisphere, summer insolation and the poleward insolation gradient were weaker during the Mid-Holocene, resulting in a reduced South American monsoon through decreased monsoon winds and less convection, as well as an equatorward shift in the ITCZ. This study corroborates the findings of paleodata research as well as previous model studies, while giving a more detailed account of Mid-Holocene monsoons.
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Bosmans, J. H. C., S. S. Drijfhout, E. Tuenter, L. J. Lourens, F. J. Hilgen, and S. L. Weber. "Monsoonal response to mid-holocene orbital forcing in a high resolution GCM." Climate of the Past 8, no. 2 (2012): 723–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-723-2012.
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Abstract. In this study, we use a sophisticated high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, EC-Earth, to investigate the effect of Mid-Holocene orbital forcing on summer monsoons on both hemispheres. During the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), there was more summer insolation on the Northern Hemisphere than today, which intensified the meridional temperature and pressure gradients. Over North Africa, monsoonal precipitation is intensified through increased landward monsoon winds and moisture advection as well as decreased moisture convergence over the oceans and more convergence over land compared to the pre-industrial simulation. Precipitation also extends further north as the ITCZ shifts northward in response to the stronger poleward gradient of insolation. This increase and poleward extent is stronger than in most previous ocean-atmosphere GCM simulations. In north-westernmost Africa, precipitation extends up to 35° N. Over tropical Africa, internal feedbacks completely overcome the direct warming effect of increased insolation. We also find a weakened African Easterly Jet. Over Asia, monsoonal precipitation during the Mid-Holocene is increased as well, but the response is different than over North-Africa. There is more convection over land at the expense of convection over the ocean, but precipitation does not extend further northward, monsoon winds over the ocean are weaker and the surrounding ocean does not provide more moisture. On the Southern Hemisphere, summer insolation and the poleward insolation gradient were weaker during the Mid-Holocene, resulting in a reduced South American monsoon through decreased monsoon winds and less convection, as well as an equatorward shift in the ITCZ. This study corroborates the findings of paleodata research as well as previous model studies, while giving a more detailed account of Mid-Holocene monsoons.
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Stensrud, David J. "Upscale Effects of Deep Convection during the North American Monsoon." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70, no. 9 (2013): 2681–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-13-063.1.
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Abstract The ability of deep monsoon convection to influence the larger-scale circulation over North America is investigated for a 6-day-long case study during the 2006 North American monsoon. Results from Rossby wave ray tracing and numerical simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model indicate that North American monsoon convection provides a source region for stationary Rossby waves. Two wave trains are seen in the numerical model simulations, with behaviors that agree well with expectations from theory and ray tracing. The shorter and faster-moving wave train moves eastward from the source region in Mexico and reaches the western Atlantic within 4 days. The longer and slower-moving wave train travels northeastward and reaches the coastal New England region within 6 days. An upstream tail of anticyclonic vorticity extends westward from the source region into the central Pacific Ocean. The monsoon convection appears to help cut off the low-level anticyclonic flow by developing low-level southerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico and northerly flow in the eastern Pacific, as suggested in earlier global model studies. However, the stationary Rossby wave trains further alter the location and intensity of deep convection in locations remote from the monsoon. These results suggest that unless a numerical model can correctly predict monsoon convection, the ability of the model to produce accurate forecasts of the large-scale pattern and associated convective activity beyond a few days is in question. This result may be important for global climate modeling, since an inaccurate prediction of monsoon convection would lead to an inaccurate Rossby wave response.
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Barlow, Mathew, Sumant Nigam, and Ernesto H. Berbery. "Evolution of the North American Monsoon System." Journal of Climate 11, no. 9 (1998): 2238–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2238:eotnam>2.0.co;2.
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Saini, Roop, Mathew Barlow, and Andrew Hoell. "Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?" Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 16 (2013): 4442–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50801.
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Dominguez, Francina, Praveen Kumar, and Enrique R. Vivoni. "Precipitation Recycling Variability and Ecoclimatological Stability—A Study Using NARR Data. Part II: North American Monsoon Region." Journal of Climate 21, no. 20 (2008): 5187–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli1760.1.
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Abstract This work studies precipitation recycling as part of the dynamic North American monsoon system (NAMS) to understand how moisture and energy fluxes modulate recycling variability at the daily-to-intraseasonal time scale. A set of land–atmosphere variables derived from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data are used to represent the hydroclimatology of the monsoon. The recycling ratio is estimated using the Dynamic Recycling Model, which provides recycling estimates at the daily time scales. Multichannel singular spectrum analysis (M-SSA) is used to extract trends in the data while at the same time selecting only the variability common to all of the variables. The 1985–2006 climatological analysis of NAMS precipitation recycling reveals a positive feedback mechanism between monsoon precipitation and subsequent increase in precipitation of recycled origin. Recycling ratios during the monsoon are consistently above 15% and can be as high as 25%. While monsoon precipitation and evapotranspiration are predominantly located in the seasonally dry tropical forests in the southwestern part of the domain, recycling is enhanced northeast of this region, indicating a relocation of soil moisture farther inland to drier regions in the northeast. The three years with the longest monsoons in the 22-yr period present an asynchronous pattern between precipitation and recycling ratio. The longest monsoons have a characteristic double peak in precipitation, with enhanced recycling ratios during the intermediate dry period. This indicates that, even when large-scale moisture advection decreases, evapotranspiration provides moisture to the overlying atmosphere, contributing to precipitation. Through the negative feedback present during long monsoons and by relocation of soil moisture, precipitation recycling brings favorable conditions for vegetation sustenance in the NAMS region.
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Cook, Kerry H., Gerald A. Meehl, and Julie M. Arblaster. "Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part II: African and American Monsoon Systems." Journal of Climate 25, no. 8 (2012): 2609–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00185.1.
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Abstract This is the second part of a two part series studying simulation characteristics of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for various monsoon regimes around the global tropics. Here, the West African, East African, North American, and South American monsoons are documented in CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 (CAM4), to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed SSTs and with ocean–atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the coupled model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In most, but not all instances, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Some aspects of the monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. Early-season rainfall in the West African monsoon is better simulated in CAM4 than in CCSM4 presumably because of the specification of SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea, but the Sahel rainfall season is captured better in CCSM4 as are the African easterly jet and the tropical easterly jet. Improvements in the simulation of the Sahel rainy season (July, August, and September) in CCSM4 compared with CCSM3 are significant, but problems remain in the simulation of the early season (May and June) in association with the misrepresentation of eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) SSTs. Precipitation distributions and the southwesterly low-level inflow in the North American monsoon are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. Both CAM4 and CCSM4 reproduce the seasonal evolution of rainfall over the South American monsoon region, but the location of maximum rainfall is misplaced to the northeast in both models.
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Englehart, Phil J., and Arthur V. Douglas. "Defining Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability within the North American Monsoon." Journal of Climate 19, no. 17 (2006): 4243–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3852.1.
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Abstract This study provides an empirical description of intraseasonal rainfall variability within the North American monsoon (NAM) region. Applying particular definitions to historical daily rainfall observations, it demonstrates that distinct intraseasonal rainfall modes exist and that these modes differ considerably from the monsoon core region in northwest Sonora (SON), California, to its northward extension in southeast Arizona (AZ). To characterize intraseasonal rainfall variability (ISV), separate P-mode principal component (PC) analyses were performed for SON and AZ. The results indicate that in each area, much of the ISV in rainfall can be described by three orthogonal modes. The correlations between ISV modes and total seasonal rainfall reinforce the notion of differing behaviors between the monsoon’s core and extension. For SON all three ISV modes exhibit significant correlation with seasonal rainfall, with the strongest relationship in evidence for the ISV mode, which is related to rainfall intensity. For AZ, total rainfall exhibits the strongest correlation with the ISV mode, which emphasizes season length and rainfall consistency. Examination of longer-period behavior in the ISV modes indicates that, for SON, there is a positive linear trend in intensity, but a countervailing trend toward a shorter monsoon season along with less consistent rainfall in the form of shorter wet spells. For AZ, the evidence for trend in the ISV modes is not nearly as compelling, though one of the modes appears to exhibit distinct multidecadal variability. This study also evaluates teleconnectivity between ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the NAM’s intraseasonal rainfall variability. Results indicate that part of the intraseasonal rainfall variability in both SON and AZ is connected to ENSO while only SON exhibits a teleconnection with the long-period fluctuations of the PDO.
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Hu, Mei, Haiming Xu, Jiechun Deng, Jing Ma, and Jinhai He. "Influence of the southwards shift of North American continent on North American monsoon." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 14 (2020): 6137–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6572.
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Carvalho, Leila M. V., and Charles Jones. "CMIP5 Simulations of Low-Level Tropospheric Temperature and Moisture over the Tropical Americas." Journal of Climate 26, no. 17 (2013): 6257–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00532.1.
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Abstract Global warming has been linked to systematic changes in North and South America's climates and may severely impact the North American monsoon system (NAMS) and South American monsoon system (SAMS). This study examines interannual-to-decadal variations and changes in the low-troposphere (850 hPa) temperature (T850) and specific humidity (Q850) and relationships with daily precipitation over the tropical Americas using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios: “historic” and high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Trends in the magnitude and area of the 85th percentiles were distinctly examined over North America (NA) and South America (SA) during the peak of the respective monsoon season. The historic simulations (1951–2005) and the two reanalyses agree well and indicate that significant warming has occurred over tropical SA with a remarkable increase in the area and magnitude of the 85th percentile in the last decade (1996–2005). The RCP8.5 CMIP5 ensemble mean projects an increase in the T850 85th percentile of about 2.5°C (2.8°C) by 2050 and 4.8°C (5.5°C) over SA (NA) by 2095 relative to 1955. The area of SA (NA) with T850 ≥ the 85th percentile is projected to increase from ~10% (15%) in 1955 to ~58% (~33%) by 2050 and ~80% (~50%) by 2095. The respective increase in the 85th percentile of Q850 is about 3 g kg−1 over SAMS and NAMS by 2095. CMIP5 models project variable changes in daily precipitation over the tropical Americas. The most consistent is increased rainfall in the intertropical convergence zone in December–February (DJF) and June–August (JJA) and decreased precipitation over NAMS in JJA.
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Geil, Kerrie L., Yolande L. Serra, and Xubin Zeng. "Assessment of CMIP5 Model Simulations of the North American Monsoon System." Journal of Climate 26, no. 22 (2013): 8787–801. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00044.1.
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Abstract Precipitation, geopotential height, and wind fields from 21 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined to determine how well this generation of general circulation models represents the North American monsoon system (NAMS). Results show no improvement since CMIP3 in the magnitude (root-mean-square error and bias) of the mean annual cycle of monthly precipitation over a core monsoon domain, but improvement in the phasing of the seasonal cycle in precipitation is notable. Monsoon onset is early for most models but is clearly visible in daily climatological precipitation, whereas monsoon retreat is highly variable and unclear in daily climatological precipitation. Models that best capture large-scale circulation patterns at a low level usually have realistic representations of the NAMS, but even the best models poorly represent monsoon retreat. Difficulty in reproducing monsoon retreat results from an inaccurate representation of gradients in low-level geopotential height across the larger region, which causes an unrealistic flux of low-level moisture from the tropics into the NAMS region that extends well into the postmonsoon season. Composites of the models with the best and worst representations of the NAMS indicate that adequate representation of the monsoon during the early to midseason can be achieved even with a large-scale circulation pattern bias, as long as the bias is spatially consistent over the larger region influencing monsoon development; in other words, as with monsoon retreat, it is the inaccuracy of the spatial gradients in geopotential height across the larger region that prevents some models from realistic representation of the early and midseason monsoon system.
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Higgins, Wayne, and David Gochis. "Synthesis of Results from the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Process Study." Journal of Climate 20, no. 9 (2007): 1601–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4081.1.
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Abstract An international team of scientists from the United States, Mexico, and Central America carried out a major field campaign during the summer of 2004 to develop an improved understanding of the North American monsoon system leading to improved precipitation forecasts. Results from this campaign, which is the centerpiece of the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Process Study, are reported in this issue of the Journal of Climate. In addition to a synthesis of key findings, this brief overview article also raises some important unresolved issues that require further attention. More detailed background information on NAME, including motivating science questions, where NAME 2004 was conducted, when, and the experimental design, was published previously by Higgins et al.
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Holle, Ronald L., and Martin J. Murphy. "Lightning in the North American Monsoon: An Exploratory Climatology." Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 5 (2015): 1970–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-14-00363.1.
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Abstract Temporal and spatial distributions of the North American monsoon have been studied previously with rainfall and satellite data. In the current study, the monsoon is examined with lightning data from Vaisala’s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360). GLD360 has been operating for over three years and provides sufficient data to develop an exploratory climatology with minimal spatial variation in detection efficiency and location accuracy across the North American monsoon region. About 80% of strokes detected by GLD360 are cloud to ground. This paper focuses on seasonal, monthly, and diurnal features of lightning occurrence during the monsoon season from Mazatlán north-northwest to northern Arizona and New Mexico. The goal is to describe thunderstorm frequency with a dataset that provides uniform spatial coverage at a resolution of 2–5 km and uniform temporal coverage with individual lightning events resolved to the millisecond, compared with prior studies that used hourly point rainfall or satellite data with a resolution of several kilometers. The monthly lightning stroke density over northwestern Mexico increases between May and June, as thunderstorms begin over the high terrain east of the Gulf of California. The monthly lightning stroke density over the entire region increases dramatically to a maximum in July and August. The highest stroke densities observed in Mexico approach those observed by GLD360 in subtropical and tropical regions in Africa, Central and South America, and Southeast Asia. The diurnal cycle of lightning exhibits a maximum over the highest terrain near noon, associated with daytime solar heating, a maximum near midnight along the southern coast of the Gulf, and a gradual decay toward sunrise.
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Jiang, Xianan, and Ngar-Cheung Lau. "Intraseasonal Teleconnection between North American and Western North Pacific Monsoons with 20-Day Time Scale." Journal of Climate 21, no. 11 (2008): 2664–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli2024.1.
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Abstract Based on a recently released, high-resolution reanalysis dataset for the North American region, the intraseasonal variability (ISV; with a time scale of about 20 days) of the North American monsoon (NAM) is examined. The rainfall signals associated with this phenomenon first emerge near the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific at about 20°N. They subsequently migrate to the southwestern United States along the slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. The rainfall quickly dissipates upon arrival at the desert region of Arizona and New Mexico (AZNM). The enhanced rainfall over AZNM is accompanied by strong southeasterly low-level flow along the Gulf of California. This pattern bears strong resemblance to the circulation related to “gulf surge” events, as documented by many studies. The southeasterly flow is associated with an anomalous low vortex over the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean off California, and a midlatitude anticyclone over the central United States in the lower troposphere. This flow pattern is in broad agreement with that favoring the “wet surges” over the southwestern United States. It is further demonstrated that the aforementioned low-level circulations associated with ISV of the NAM are part of a prominent trans-Pacific wave train extending from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Eastern Pacific/North America along a “great circle” path. The circulation anomalies along the axis of this wave train exhibit a barotropic vertical structure over most regions outside of the WNP, and a baroclinic structure over the WNP, thus suggesting the important role of convective activities over the WNP in sustaining this wave train. This inference is further substantiated by an analysis of the pattern of wave-activity–flux vectors. Variations in the WNP convection are correlated with the ISV of the monsoons in both North American and East Asian (EA)/WNP sectors. These relationships lead to notable teleconnections between NAM and the EA/WNP monsoon on 20-day time scales.
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Serra, Yolande L., David K. Adams, Carlos Minjarez-Sosa, et al. "The North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 97, no. 11 (2016): 2103–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00250.1.
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Abstract Northwestern Mexico experiences large variations in water vapor on seasonal time scales in association with the North American monsoon, as well as during the monsoon associated with upper-tropospheric troughs, mesoscale convective systems, tropical easterly waves, and tropical cyclones. Together these events provide more than half of the annual rainfall to the region. A sufficient density of meteorological observations is required to properly observe, understand, and forecast the important processes contributing to the development of organized convection over northwestern Mexico. The stability of observations over long time periods is also of interest to monitor seasonal and longer-time-scale variability in the water cycle. For more than a decade, the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) has been used to obtain tropospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) for applications in the atmospheric sciences. There is particular interest in establishing these systems where conventional operational meteorological networks are not possible due to the lack of financial or human resources to support the network. Here, we provide an overview of the North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013 in northwestern Mexico for the study of mesoscale processes and the impact of PWV observations on high-resolution model forecasts of organized convective events during the 2013 monsoon. Some highlights are presented, as well as a look forward at GPS networks with surface meteorology (GPS-Met) planned for the region that will be capable of capturing a wider range of water vapor variability in both space and time across Mexico and into the southwestern United States.
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Adams, David K., Carlos Minjarez, Yolande Serra, et al. "Mexican GPS Tracks Convection From North American Monsoon." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 95, no. 7 (2014): 61–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014eo070001.
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Berbery, Ernesto Hugo. "Mesoscale Moisture Analysis of the North American Monsoon." Journal of Climate 14, no. 2 (2001): 121–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)013<0121:mmaotn>2.0.co;2.
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Forzieri, Giovanni, Fabio Castelli, and Enrique R. Vivoni. "Vegetation Dynamics within the North American Monsoon Region." Journal of Climate 24, no. 6 (2011): 1763–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3847.1.
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Abstract The North American monsoon (NAM) leads to a large increase in summer rainfall and a seasonal change in vegetation in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Understanding the interactions between NAM rainfall and vegetation dynamics is essential for improved climate and hydrologic prediction. In this work, the authors analyze long-term vegetation dynamics over the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) tier I domain (20°–35°N, 105°–115°W) using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) semimonthly composites at 8-km resolution from 1982 to 2006. The authors derive ecoregions with similar vegetation dynamics using principal component analysis and cluster identification. Based on ecoregion and pixel-scale analyses, this study quantifies the seasonal and interannual vegetation variations, their dependence on geographic position and terrain attributes, and the presence of long-term trends through a set of phenological vegetation metrics. Results reveal that seasonal biomass productivity, as captured by the time-integrated NDVI (TINDVI), is an excellent means to synthesize vegetation dynamics. High TINDVI occurs for ecosystems with a short period of intense greening tuned to the NAM or with a prolonged period of moderate greenness continuing after the NAM. These cases represent different plant strategies (deciduous versus evergreen) that can be adjusted along spatial gradients to cope with seasonal water availability. Long-term trends in TINDVI may also indicate changing conditions favoring ecosystems that intensively use NAM rainfall for rapid productivity, as opposed to delayed and moderate greening. A persistence of these trends could potentially result in the spatial reorganization of ecosystems in the NAM region.
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Chakraborty, A., and T. N. Krishnamurti. "Numerical simulation of the North American monsoon system." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 84, no. 1-2 (2003): 57–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00703-002-0566-6.
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He, Chao, Tim Li, and Wen Zhou. "Drier North American Monsoon in Contrast to Asian–African Monsoon under Global Warming." Journal of Climate 33, no. 22 (2020): 9801–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0189.1.
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AbstractSummer monsoon rainfall supplies over 55% of annual precipitation to global monsoon regions. As shown by more than 70% of models, including 30 models from CMIP5 and 30 models from CMIP6 under high-emission scenarios, North American (NAM) monsoon rainfall decreases in a warmer climate, in sharp contrast to the robust increase in Asian–African monsoon rainfall. A hierarchy of model experiments is analyzed to understand the mechanism for the reduced NAM monsoon rainfall in this study. Modeling evidence shows that the reduction of NAM monsoon rainfall is related to both direct radiative forcing of increased CO2 concentration and SST warming, manifested as fast and slow responses to abrupt CO2 quadrupling in coupled GCMs. A cyclone anomaly forms over the Eurasian–African continental area due to enhanced land–sea thermal contrast under increased CO2 concentration, and this leads to a subsidence anomaly on its western flank, suppressing the NAM monsoon rainfall. The SST warming acts to further reduce the rainfall over the NAM monsoon region, and the El Niño–like SST warming pattern with enhanced SST warming over the equatorial Pacific plays a key role in suppressing NAM rainfall, whereas relative cooling over the subtropical North Atlantic has no contribution. A positive feedback between monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation helps to amplify the responses of monsoon rainfall.
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Langford, Sally, Samantha Stevenson, and David Noone. "Analysis of Low-Frequency Precipitation Variability in CMIP5 Historical Simulations for Southwestern North America." Journal of Climate 27, no. 7 (2014): 2735–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00317.1.
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Abstract Drier future conditions are projected for the arid southwest of North America, increasing the chances of the region experiencing severe and prolonged drought. To examine the mechanisms of decadal variability, 47 global climate model historical simulations performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were assessed. On average, the CMIP5 models have higher climatological precipitation over the past century in southwestern North America than current instrumental or reanalysis products. The timing of the winter peak in climatological precipitation over California and Nevada is accurately represented. Models with resolutions coarser than 2° show a larger spread in the location and strength of the North American monsoon ridge and subsequent summer precipitation, in comparison with the higher-resolution models. Less than 20% of decadal variability in wintertime precipitation over California is associated with North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, a larger proportion than is associated with the tropical forcing but not sufficient for making decadal drought predictions. North American monsoon precipitation is strongly associated with local land temperatures on interannual-to-decadal time scales attributable to evaporative cooling and radiation changes driven by varying cloud cover. Soil moisture in Texas and Oklahoma in April is shown to be positively correlated with monsoon precipitation for the following summer, indicating a potential source of nonoceanic interseasonal persistence in southwestern North American hydroclimate. To make meaningful decadal predictions in the future, it is likely that forecasting will move away from sea surface temperature–driven anomaly patterns, and focus on land surface processes, which can allow persistence of precipitation anomalies via feedbacks.
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Nie, Ji, William R. Boos, and Zhiming Kuang. "Observational Evaluation of a Convective Quasi-Equilibrium View of Monsoons." Journal of Climate 23, no. 16 (2010): 4416–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3505.1.
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Abstract Idealized dynamical theories that employ a convective quasi-equilibrium (QE) treatment for the diabatic effects of moist convection have been used to explain the location, intensity, and intraseasonal evolution of monsoons. This paper examines whether observations of the earth’s regional monsoons are consistent with the assumption of QE. It is shown here that in local summer climatologies based on reanalysis data, maxima of free-tropospheric temperature are, indeed, nearly collocated with maxima of subcloud equivalent potential temperature, θeb, in all monsoon regions except the North and South American monsoons. Free-tropospheric temperatures over North Africa also exhibit a strong remote influence from the South Asian monsoon. Consistent with idealized dynamical theories, peak precipitation falls slightly equatorward of the maxima in θeb and free-tropospheric temperature in regions where QE seems to hold. Vertical structures of temperature and wind reveal two types of monsoon circulations. One is the deep, moist baroclinic circulation clearly seen in the South Asian monsoon. The other is of mixed type, with the deep moist circulation superimposed on a shallow dry circulation closely associated with boundary layer temperature gradients. While the existence of a shallow dry circulation has been documented extensively in the North African monsoon, here it is shown to also exist in Australia and southern Africa during the local summer. Analogous to moist QE theories for the deep circulation, the shallow circulation can be viewed in a dry QE framework in which shallow ascent occurs just equatorward of the peak boundary layer potential temperature, θb, providing a unified system where the poleward extents of deep and shallow circulations are bounded by maxima in θeb and θb, respectively.
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Lorenz, David J., and Dennis L. Hartmann. "The Effect of the MJO on the North American Monsoon*." Journal of Climate 19, no. 3 (2006): 333–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3684.1.
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Abstract The effect of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in the eastern Pacific on the North American monsoon is documented using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and daily mean precipitation data from 1958 to 2003. It is found that positive zonal wind anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific lead to above-normal precipitation in northwest Mexico and Arizona from several days to over a week later. This connection between the tropical Pacific and monsoon precipitation appears to be limited to regions influenced by moisture surges from the Gulf of California as a similar connection does not exist for New Mexico precipitation. The evidence suggests that the MJO might affect monsoon precipitation by modulating the strength of low-level easterly waves off the coast of Mexico, which in turn triggers the development of a gulf surge.
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Ladwig, William C., and David J. Stensrud. "Relationship between Tropical Easterly Waves and Precipitation during the North American Monsoon." Journal of Climate 22, no. 2 (2009): 258–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2241.1.
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Abstract Relationships between tropical easterly waves (TEWs) and precipitation over Mexico and the United States are examined during the North American monsoon (NAM). The National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data are used to identify 137 TEWs that cross Mexico north of 20°N after monsoon onset over a 31-yr period from 1975 to 2005. Mean precipitation anomalies over two-day periods both before and after TEW passage are determined using Climate Prediction Center daily precipitation analyses. Results indicate that positive precipitation anomalies occur along the west coast of Mexico and extending into the west-central United States in association with TEW passage. Negative precipitation anomalies are found in the south-central United States. These precipitation anomaly patterns share many similarities to precipitation anomaly patterns previously defined in association with gulf surge events. On longer time scales, correlations between the total number of these northern TEWs crossing Mexico and 90-day monsoon period precipitation anomalies are also examined. An out-of-phase relationship is found between monsoon period precipitation anomalies in the southwestern and south-central United States, suggesting that increasing the number of northern TEWs crossing Mexico leads to enhanced monsoon period rainfall in Arizona and New Mexico and reduced monsoon period rainfall in Texas and Oklahoma. Thus, these northern TEWs likely play an important role in producing the distribution of precipitation throughout the NAM region and the south-central United States during the monsoon season, and extended-range predictions of northern TEW frequency may lead to improved seasonal rainfall anomaly forecasts in these regions.
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Gao, X., J. Li, and S. Sorooshian. "Modeling Intraseasonal Features of 2004 North American Monsoon Precipitation." Journal of Climate 20, no. 9 (2007): 1882–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli4100.1.
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Abstract This study examines the capabilities and limitations of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) in predicting the precipitation and circulation features that accompanied the 2004 North American monsoon (NAM). When the model is reinitialized every 5 days to restrain the growth of modeling errors, its results for precipitation checked at subseasonal time scales (not for individual rainfall events) become comparable with ground- and satellite-based observations as well as with the NAM’s diagnostic characteristics. The modeled monthly precipitation illustrates the evolution patterns of monsoon rainfall, although it underestimates the rainfall amount and coverage area in comparison with observations. The modeled daily precipitation shows the transition from dry to wet episodes on the monsoon onset day over the Arizona–New Mexico region, and the multiday heavy rainfall (&gt;1 mm day−1) and dry periods after the onset. All these modeling predictions agree with observed variations. The model also accurately simulated the onset and ending dates of four major moisture surges over the Gulf of California during the 2004 monsoon season. The model reproduced the strong diurnal variability of the NAM precipitation, but did not predict the observed diurnal feature of the precipitation peak’s shift from the mountains to the coast during local afternoon to late night. In general, the model is able to reproduce the major, critical patterns and dynamic variations of the NAM rainfall at intraseasonal time scales, but still includes errors in precipitation quantity, pattern, and timing. The numerical study suggests that these errors are due largely to deficiencies in the model’s cumulus convective parameterization scheme, which is responsible for the model’s precipitation generation.
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Zhu, Zhiwei, and Tim Li. "A New Paradigm for Continental U.S. Summer Rainfall Variability: Asia–North America Teleconnection." Journal of Climate 29, no. 20 (2016): 7313–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0137.1.
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Abstract The present study reveals a close relationship between the leading mode of continental U.S. (CONUS) summer rainfall and the East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall (viz., mei-yu in China, baiu in Japan, and changma in the Korean peninsula). The East Asian subtropical monsoon rainfall and the CONUS dipole rainfall patterns are connected by an upper-level Asia–North America (ANA) teleconnection. The Rossby wave energy propagates along the path of the westerly jet stream (WJS) from East Asia to North America, affecting the CONUS summer rainfall. Mechanisms through which East Asian summer monsoon heating influence North American rainfall are illustrated by idealized anomaly atmospheric general circulation model experiments. In boreal winter, because of the southward shift of the WJS, the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern can be excited by the tropical central/eastern Pacific heating associated with El Niño, affecting the rainfall over CONUS. In boreal summer, because the WJS is weaker and locates farther to the north, an equatorial heating anomaly cannot directly perturb the WJS. A perturbation heating over subtropical East Asia, however, can trigger an ANA pattern along the path of the WJS, affecting the rainfall over North America. The season-dependent teleconnection scenario illustrates that the predictability source of CONUS rainfall variability is different between winter and summer. While the PNA pattern generated by El Niño is critical for CONUS rainfall in northern winter, the CONUS dipole rainfall variation in boreal summer is mainly governed by the remote forcing over subtropical East Asia via the ANA teleconnection.
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Raman, Aishwarya, Avelino Arellano, and Armin Sorooshian. "Decreasing Aerosol Loading in the North American Monsoon Region." Atmosphere 7, no. 2 (2016): 24. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos7020024.
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Jones, Matthew D., Sarah E. Metcalfe, Sarah J. Davies, and Anders Noren. "Late Holocene climate reorganisation and the North American Monsoon." Quaternary Science Reviews 124 (September 2015): 290–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.07.004.
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Pascale, Salvatore, William R. Boos, Simona Bordoni, et al. "Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming." Nature Climate Change 7, no. 11 (2017): 806–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3412.
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Diem, Jeremy E., David P. Brown, and Jessie McCann. "Multi-decadal changes in the North American monsoon anticyclone." International Journal of Climatology 33, no. 9 (2012): 2274–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3576.
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Erfani, Ehsan, and David Mitchell. "A partial mechanistic understanding of the North American monsoon." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119, no. 23 (2014): 13,096–13,115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014jd022038.
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Bhattacharya, Tripti, Jessica E. Tierney, Jason A. Addison, and James W. Murray. "Ice-sheet modulation of deglacial North American monsoon intensification." Nature Geoscience 11, no. 11 (2018): 848–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0220-7.
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Gao, X., S. Sorooshian, J. Li, and J. Xu. "SST data improve modeling of North American monsoon rainfall." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 84, no. 43 (2003): 457. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003eo430001.
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Vivoni, Enrique R., Christopher J. Watts, and David J. Gochis. "Land surface ecohydrology of the North American monsoon system." Journal of Arid Environments 74, no. 5 (2010): 529–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.11.004.
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Griffin, Daniel, Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko, et al. "North American monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree-ring latewood." Geophysical Research Letters 40, no. 5 (2013): 954–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50184.
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Varuolo-Clarke, Arianna M., Kevin A. Reed, and Brian Medeiros. "Characterizing the North American Monsoon in the Community Atmosphere Model: Sensitivity to Resolution and Topography." Journal of Climate 32, no. 23 (2019): 8355–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0567.1.
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Abstract This work examines the effect of horizontal resolution and topography on the North American monsoon (NAM) in experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. Observations are used to evaluate the fidelity of the representation of the monsoon in simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with a standard 1.0° grid spacing and a high-resolution 0.25° grid spacing. The simulated monsoon has some realistic features, but both configurations also show precipitation biases. The default 1.0° grid spacing configuration simulates a monsoon with an annual cycle and intensity of precipitation within the observational range, but the monsoon begins and ends too gradually and does not reach far enough north. This study shows that the improved representation of topography in the high-resolution (0.25° grid spacing) configuration improves the regional circulation and therefore some aspects of the simulated monsoon compared to the 1.0° counterpart. At higher resolution, CAM5 simulates a stronger low pressure center over the American Southwest, with more realistic low-level wind flow than in the 1.0° configuration. As a result, the monsoon precipitation increases as does the amplitude of the annual cycle of precipitation. A moisture analysis sheds light on the monsoon dynamics, indicating that changes in the advection of enthalpy and moist static energy drive the differences between monsoon precipitation in CAM5 1.0° compared to the 0.25° configuration. Additional simulations confirm that these improvements are mainly due to the topographic influence on the low-level flow through the Gulf of California, and not only the increase in horizontal resolution.
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Roy, Priyadarsi D., Claudia M. Chávez-Lara, Laura E. Beramendi-Orosco, et al. "Paleohydrology of the Santiaguillo Basin (Mexico) since late last glacial and climate variation in southern part of western subtropical North America." Quaternary Research 84, no. 3 (2015): 335–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2015.10.002.
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Stratigraphy, geochemistry and radiocarbon dating of a succession of sediment in the Santiaguillo Basin (central-northern Mexico) help reconstruct the millennial-scale dynamics of hydrological variability that occurred in the southern part of western subtropical North America since the late last glacial. Runoff was generally above average during the late last glacial from ~ 27 to 18 ka. Following this interval, runoff decreased and deposition of authigenic carbonate and aeolian transported sediment increased until ~ 4 ka. Heinrich 1 and 2, and Younger Dryas were intervals of reduced runoff and increased aeolian activity. The wetter climate of central-northern Mexico and arid conditions in north–northwestern Mexico during the late last glacial were probably related to formation of tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific during the autumn with restricted rainfall swaths and an absent/weaker North American Monsoon. Enhanced North American Monsoon and tropical cyclones with expanded rainfall swaths brought more summer and autumn precipitation to a broader region extending from the central-northern Mexico to the continental interiors of southwestern US during the early Holocene.
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Zhu, Chunmei, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, and Tereza Cavazos. "Role of Antecedent Land Surface Conditions on North American Monsoon Rainfall Variability*." Journal of Climate 18, no. 16 (2005): 3104–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3387.1.
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Abstract Possible links between North American Monsoon System (NAMS) seasonal [June–July–August–September (JJAS)] precipitation and premonsoon seasonal land surface conditions including precipitation (P), surface air temperature (Ts), soil moisture (Sm), and snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies are explored during the 1950–2000 period. A statistically significant inverse relationship is found between monsoon precipitation in an area defined as the Monsoon West (Arizona and western New Mexico) and antecedent winter precipitation in the southwestern (SW) United States and the mountainous region in Utah and Colorado (the predictor area). This linkage is strong during 1965–90 and weak otherwise, as has been suggested by previous studies. A land surface feedback hypothesis is proposed to explain this relationship: more winter P leads to more winter and early spring SWE in the predictor area, hence more spring and early summer Sm, and lower spring and early summer Ts, which induces a weaker onset (and less precipitation) of the NAMS and vice versa. All three links in this hypothesis were tested and the existence of a land memory associated with winter precipitation and snow, which can persist until June, was confirmed. However, the results show that this land memory contributes little to the magnitude of NAM precipitation. Winter snow is negatively correlated to late spring Ts in the SW mountainous region, but not in extreme years. In fact, the premonsoon (June) Ts over the U.S. southwest is inversely related to monsoon precipitation, which is the reverse of what is expected based on the hypothesis. The lack of a significant Sm–Ts–P relationship in most of the SW suggests, based on the constructed Sm dataset, that local premonsoon soil wetness conditions play a minor role in the strength of the monsoon. A strong positive relationship between June Ts anomalies and the large-scale midtropospheric circulation before the onset of the monsoon was found, suggesting that the controlling factor for the premonsoon Ts anomalies may not be local (i.e., not from the land surface). The results suggest that further research is needed to elucidate the nature of land–sea–atmosphere interactions as related to the onset of the monsoon.
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Lin, Jia-Lin, Brian E. Mapes, Klaus M. Weickmann, et al. "North American Monsoon and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves Simulated by IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs." Journal of Climate 21, no. 12 (2008): 2919–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1815.1.
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Abstract This study evaluates the fidelity of North American monsoon and associated intraseasonal variability in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). Twenty years of monthly precipitation data from each of the 22 models’ twentieth-century climate simulations, together with the available daily precipitation data from 12 of them, are analyzed and compared with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly and daily precipitation. The authors focus on the seasonal cycle and horizontal pattern of monsoon precipitation in conjunction with the two dominant convectively coupled equatorial wave modes: the eastward-propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the westward-propagating easterly waves. The results show that the IPCC AR4 CGCMs have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the North American monsoon and associated intraseasonal variability. Most of the models reproduce the monsoon rainbelt, extending from southeast to northwest, and its gradual northward shift in early summer, but overestimate the precipitation over the core monsoon region throughout the seasonal cycle and fail to reproduce the monsoon retreat in the fall. Additionally, most models simulate good westward propagation of the easterly waves, but relatively poor eastward propagation of the MJO and overly weak variances for both the easterly waves and the MJO. There is a tendency for models without undiluted updrafts in their deep convection scheme to produce better MJO propagation.
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Chou, Chia, Jien-Yi Tu, and Jia-Yuh Yu. "Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon: Differences between ENSO and Non-ENSO Years." Journal of Climate 16, no. 13 (2003): 2275–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2761.1.
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Abstract The interannual variability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon is examined for the non-ENSO, ENSO developing, and ENSO decaying years, respectively. The ENSO developing (decaying) year is defined as the year before (after) the mature phase of ENSO, and the non-ENSO year is defined as the year that is neither the ENSO developing year nor the ENSO decaying year. A strong (weak) WNP summer monsoon tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year and a weak (strong) WNP summer monsoon tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) decaying year. In all non-ENSO, ENSO developing, and ENSO decaying years, the strong (weak) WNP summer monsoon is associated with the positive (negative) rainfall anomalies, cold (warm) sea surface temperature anomalies, warm (cold) upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies, low (high) surface pressure anomalies, and a low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly over the subtropical WNP. The 850-hPa wave train associated with the WNP and east Asian (EA) summer monsoons in the non-ENSO, ENSO developing, and ENSO decaying years extends northward and suggests a possible teleconnection between the WNP summer monsoon and the North American climate. The wave train extended into the Southern Hemisphere in the non-ENSO and ENSO developing years implies a teleconnection between the WNP summer monsoon and the Australian winter climate. The anomalous WNP monsoon in the non-ENSO and ENSO developing years exists only in summer, while the anomalous WNP monsoon in the ENSO decaying year persists from the beginning of the year to the summer season. The anomalous WNP summer monsoon exhibits a strong ocean–atmosphere interaction, especially in the ENSO decaying year. This study suggests that the anomalous WNP summer monsoon in the non-ENSO year is associated with the variation of the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, while the anomalous WNP summer monsoon in the ENSO developing and decaying years is associated with ENSO-related SST anomalies.
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Liang, Xin-Zhong, Jinhong Zhu, Kenneth E. Kunkel, Mingfang Ting, and Julian X. L. Wang. "Do CGCMs Simulate the North American Monsoon Precipitation Seasonal–Interannual Variability?" Journal of Climate 21, no. 17 (2008): 4424–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2174.1.
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Abstract This study uses the most recent simulations from all available fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate whether the North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation seasonal–interannual variations are simulated and, if so, whether the key underlying physical mechanisms are correctly represented. This is facilitated by first identifying key centers where observed large-scale circulation fields and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are significantly correlated with the NAM precipitation averages over the core region (central–northwest Mexico) and then examining if the modeled and observed patterns agree. Two new findings result from the analysis of observed NAM interannual variations. First, precipitation exhibits significantly high positive (negative) correlations with 200-hPa meridional wind centered to the northwest (southeast) of the core region in June and September (July and August). As such, wet conditions are associated with strong anomalous southerly upper-level flow on the northwest flank during the monsoon onset and retreat, but with anomalous northerly flow on the southeast flank, during the peak of the monsoon. They are often identified with a cyclonic circulation anomaly pattern over the central Great Plains for the July–August peak monsoon and, reversely, an anticyclonic anomaly pattern centered over the northern (southern) Great Plains for the June (September) transition. Second, wet NAM conditions in June and July are also connected with a SST pattern of positive anomalies in the eastern Pacific and negative anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico, acting to reduce the climatological mean gradient between the two oceans. This pattern suggests a possible surface gradient forcing that favors a westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical ridge. These two observed features connected to the NAM serve as the metric for quantitative evaluation of the model performance in simulating the important NAM precipitation mechanisms. Out of 17 CGCMs, only the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) model with a medium resolution consistently captures the observed NAM precipitation annual cycle (having a realistic amplitude and no phase shift) as well as interannual covariations with the planetary circulation patterns (having the correct sign and comparably high magnitude of correlation) throughout the summer. For the metric of correlations with 200-hPa meridional wind, there is general agreement among all CGCMs with observations for June and September. This may indicate that large-scale forcings dominate interannual variability for the monsoon onset and retreat, while variability of the peak of the monsoon in July and August may be largely influenced by local processes that are more challenging for CGCMs to resolve. For the metric of correlations with SSTs, good agreement is found only in June. These results suggest that the NAM precipitation interannual variability may likely be determined by large-scale circulation anomalies, while its predictability based on remote signals such as SSTs may not be sufficiently robust to be well captured by current CGCMs, with the exception of the June monsoon onset which is potentially more predictable.
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Fadnavis, S., K. Semeniuk, M. G. Schultz, et al. "Transport pathways of peroxyacetyl nitrate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from different monsoon systems during the summer monsoon season." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 14, no. 14 (2014): 20159–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-20159-2014.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. The Asian summer monsoon involves complex transport patterns with large scale redistribution of trace gases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). We employ the global chemistry–climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ in order to evaluate the transport pathways and the contributions of nitrogen oxide reservoir species PAN, NOx, and HNO3 from various monsoon regions, to the UTLS over Southern Asia and vice versa. The model is evaluated with trace gas retrievals from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS-E) and aircraft campaigns during the monsoon season (June–September). There are three regions which contribute substantial pollution to the UTLS during the monsoon: the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), the North American Monsoon (NAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM). However, penetration due to ASM convection is deeper into the UTLS as compared to NAM and WAM outflow. The circulation in these monsoon regions distributes PAN into the tropical latitude belt in the upper troposphere. Remote transport also occurs in the extratropical upper troposphere where westerly winds drive North American and European pollutants eastward to partly merge with the ASM plume. Strong ASM convection transports these remote and regional pollutants into the lower stratosphere. In the lower stratosphere the injected pollutants are transported westward by easterly winds. The intense convective activity in the monsoon regions is associated with lightning generation and thereby the emission of NOy species. This will affect the distribution of PAN in the UTLS. The estimates of lightning produced PAN, HNO3, NOx and ozone obtained from control and lightning-off simulations shows high percentage changes over the regions of convective transport especially equatorial Africa and America and comparatively less over the ASM. This indicates higher anthropogenic pollution transport from the ASM region into the UTLS.