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1

Liu, W. Timothy, and Xiaosu Xie. "Spacebased observations of the seasonal changes of south Asian monsoons and oceanic responses." Geophysical Research Letters 26, no. 10 (1999): 1473–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1999gl900289.

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2

Cosford, Jason, Hairuo Qing, Yin Lin та ін. "The East Asian Monsoon During MIS 2 Expressed in a Speleothem δ18O Record From Jintanwan Cave, Hunan, China". Quaternary Research 73, № 3 (2010): 541–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2010.01.003.

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Stalagmite J1 from Jintanwan Cave, Hunan, China, provides a precisely dated, decadally resolved δ18O proxy record of paleoclimatic changes associated with the East Asian monsoon from ∽29.5 to 14.7 ka and from ∽12.9 to 11.0 ka. At the time of the last glacial maximum (LGM), the East Asian summer monsoon weakened and then strengthened in response to changes in Northern Hemisphere insolation. As the ice sheets retreated the East Asian summer monsoon weakened, especially during Heinrich event H1, when atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections transferred the climatic changes around the North Atlantic to the monsoonal regions of Eastern Asia. A depositional hiatus between ∽14.7 and 12.9 ka leaves the deglacial record incomplete, but an abrupt shift in δ18O values at ∽11.5 ka marks the end of the Younger Dryas and the transition into the Holocene. Comparisons of the J1 record to other Chinese speleothem records indicate synchronous climatic changes throughout monsoonal China. Further comparisons to a speleothem record from western Asia (Socotra Island) and to Greenland ice cores support hemispherical-scale paleoclimatic change. Spectral and wavelet analyses reveal centennial- and decadal-scale periodicities that correspond to solar frequencies and to oscillations in atmospheric and oceanic circulation.
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3

Seo, Hyodae, Shang-Ping Xie, Raghu Murtugudde, Markus Jochum, and Arthur J. Miller. "Seasonal Effects of Indian Ocean Freshwater Forcing in a Regional Coupled Model*." Journal of Climate 22, no. 24 (2009): 6577–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2990.1.

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Abstract Effects of freshwater forcing from river discharge into the Indian Ocean on oceanic vertical structure and the Indian monsoons are investigated using a fully coupled, high-resolution, regional climate model. The effect of river discharge is included in the model by restoring sea surface salinity (SSS) toward observations. The simulations with and without this effect in the coupled model reveal a highly seasonal influence of salinity and the barrier layer (BL) on oceanic vertical density stratification, which is in turn linked to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. During both boreal summer and winter, SSS relaxation leads to a more realistic spatial distribution of salinity and the BL in the model. In summer, the BL in the Bay of Bengal enhances the upper-ocean stratification and increases the SST near the river mouths where the freshwater forcing is largest. However, the warming is limited to the coastal ocean and the amplitude is not large enough to give a significant impact on monsoon rainfall. The strengthened BL during boreal winter leads to a shallower mixed layer. Atmospheric heat flux forcing acting on a thin mixed layer results in an extensive reduction of SST over the northern Indian Ocean. Relatively suppressed mixing below the mixed layer warms the subsurface layer, leading to a temperature inversion. The cooling of the sea surface induces a large-scale adjustment in the winter atmosphere with amplified northeasterly winds. This impedes atmospheric convection north of the equator while facilitating it in the austral summer intertropical convergence zone, resulting in a hemispheric-asymmetric response pattern. Overall, the results suggest that freshwater forcing from the river discharges plays an important role during the boreal winter by affecting SST and the coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction, with potential impacts on the broadscale regional climate.
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4

Dallmeyer, A., M. Claussen, and J. Otto. "Contribution of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks to Holocene climate change in monsoonal Asia." Climate of the Past 6, no. 2 (2010): 195–218. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-195-2010.

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Abstract. The impact of vegetation-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions on the mid- to late Holocene climate change as well as their synergy is studied for different parts of the Asian monsoon region, giving consideration to the large climatic and topographical heterogeneity in that area. We concentrate on temperature and precipitation changes as the main parameters describing monsoonal influenced climates. For our purpose, we analyse a set of coupled numerical experiments, performed with the comprehensive Earth system model ECHAM5/JSBACH-MPIOM under present-day and mid-Holocene (6 k) orbital configurations (Otto et al., 2009b). The temperature change caused by the insolation forcing reveals an enhanced seasonal cycle, with a pronounced warming in summer (0.58 K) and autumn (1.29 K) and a cooling in the other seasons (spring: -1.32 K; winter: -0.97 K). Most of this change can be attributed to the direct response of the atmosphere, but the ocean, whose reaction has a lagged seasonal cycle (warming in autumn and winter, cooling in the other seasons), strongly modifies the signal. The simulated contribution of dynamic vegetation is small and most effective in winter, where it slightly warms the near-surface atmosphere (approx. 0.03 K). The temperature difference attributed to the synergy is on average positive, but also small. Concerning the precipitation, the most remarkable change is the postponement and enhancement of the Asian monsoon (0.46 mm/day in summer, 0.53 mm/day in autumn), mainly related to the direct atmospheric response. On regional average, the interactive ocean (ca. 0.18 mm/day) amplifies the direct effect, but tends to weaken the East Asian summer monsoon and strongly increases the Indian summer monsoon rainfall rate (0.68 mm/day). The influence of dynamic vegetation on precipitation is comparatively small (<0.04 mm/day). The synergy effect has no influence, on average.
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5

Annamalai, H., Ping Liu, and Shang-Ping Xie. "Southwest Indian Ocean SST Variability: Its Local Effect and Remote Influence on Asian Monsoons*." Journal of Climate 18, no. 20 (2005): 4150–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3533.1.

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Abstract An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used to examine the role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in regional climate variability. In particular, the authors focus on the effect of the basinwide warming that occurs during December through May after the mature phase of El Niño. To elucidate the relative importance of local and remote forcing, model solutions were sought for experiments where SST anomalies are inserted in the (i) tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans, (ii) tropical Pacific Ocean, and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean. A 10-member ensemble simulation is carried out for each of the three forcing scenarios. The model solutions demonstrate that precipitation variations over the southwest Indian Ocean are tied to local SST anomalies and are highly reproducible. Changes in the Indian Ocean–Walker circulation suppress precipitation over the tropical west Pacific–Maritime Continent, contributing to the development of a low-level anticyclone over the Philippine and South China Seas. Our model results indicate that more than 50% of the total precipitation anomalies over the tropical west Pacific–Maritime Continent is forced by remote Indian Ocean SST anomalies, offering an additional mechanism for the Philippine Sea anticyclone apart from Pacific SST. This anticyclone increases precipitation along the East Asian winter monsoon front from December to May. The anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent in conjunction with persistent anomalies of SST and precipitation over the Indian Ocean in spring prevent the northwestward migration of the ITCZ and the associated deep moist layer, causing a significant delay in the Indian summer monsoon onset in June by 6–7 days. At time scales of 5 days, however, the reproducibility of the northward progression of the ITCZ during the onset is low. Results indicate that Indian Ocean SST anomalies during December through May that develop in response to both atmospheric and oceanic processes to El Niño need to be considered for a complete understanding of regional climate variability, particularly around the Indian Ocean rim.
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6

Lau, Ngar-Cheung, and Mary Jo Nath. "A Model Study of the Air–Sea Interaction Associated with the Climatological Aspects and Interannual Variability of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Development." Journal of Climate 25, no. 3 (2012): 839–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00035.1.

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Abstract The climatological characteristics and interannual variations of the development of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) in early summer are studied using output from a 200-yr simulation of a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CM2.1). Some of the model results are compared with corresponding observations. Climatological charts of the model and observational data at pentadal intervals indicate that both the precipitation and SST signals exhibit a tendency to migrate northward. Enhanced monsoonal precipitation at a given site is accompanied by a reduction in incoming shortwave radiation and intensification of upward latent heat flux, and by oceanic cooling. An extended empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to identify the dates for initiation of the northward march of SASM in individual summers. It is noted that early monsoon development prevails after the mature phase of La Niña events, whereas delayed development occurs after El Niño. Sensitivity experiments based on the atmospheric component of CM2.1 indicate that the effects of SST forcings in the tropical Pacific (TPAC) and Indian Ocean (IO) on monsoon development are opposite to each other. During El Niño events, the atmospheric response to remote TPAC forcing tends to suppress or postpone monsoon development over South Asia. Conversely, the warm SST anomalies in IO, which are generated by the “atmospheric bridge” mechanism in El Niño episodes, lead to accelerated monsoon development. The net result of these two competing effects is an evolution scenario with a timing that is intermediate between the response to TPAC forcing only and the response to IO forcing only.
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7

Schewe, Jacob, and Anders Levermann. "Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming." Earth System Dynamics 8, no. 3 (2017): 495–505. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017.

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Abstract. Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.
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8

Yang, Haiyuan, Lixin Wu, Shantong Sun, and Zhaohui Chen. "Selective Response of the South China Sea Circulation to Summer Monsoon." Journal of Physical Oceanography 47, no. 7 (2017): 1555–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-16-0288.1.

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AbstractThe response of the South China Sea (SCS) circulation to intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon is studied with both observations and a 1.5-layer reduced-gravity model. Intraseasonal variability of the SCS summer monsoon is characterized by evolution of the wind jet intensity in the midbasin with typical amplitude of 6 m s−1 and several peaks on its power spectrum between 10 and 60 days. However, this study finds that intraseasonal variability of the sea surface height (SSH) in the SCS presents significant variability to the southeast of Vietnam with amplitude of 6 cm and a period only between 40 and 60 days. This implicates the frequency selectivity of oceanic response to wind forcing. Numerical experiments suggest that the intrinsic variability of the SCS circulation accounts for this phenomenon. Based on the Rossby basin mode theory, this is explained by the interaction between the long, westward-propagating Rossby waves and the short, eastward-propagating Rossby waves.
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9

Martin, G. M., and R. C. Levine. "The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family." Earth System Dynamics 3, no. 2 (2012): 245–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-245-2012.

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Abstract. Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework (one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle), to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.
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10

Dallmeyer, A., M. Claussen, and J. Otto. "Contribution of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks to Holocene climate change in Central and Eastern Asia." Climate of the Past Discussions 5, no. 5 (2009): 2351–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-5-2351-2009.

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Abstract. The impact of vegetation-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere interactions on the mid- to late Holocene climate change as well as their synergy is studied for different regions in Central and Eastern Asia (60–140° E, 0–55° N), giving consideration to the large climatic and topographical heterogeneity in that area. With main focus on the Asian monsoon, we concentrate on both, temperature and precipitation changes. For our purpose, we analyze a set of coupled numerical experiments, performed with the Earth system model ECHAM5/JSBACH-MPIOM under present-day and mid-Holocene (6 k) orbital configurations (Otto et al., 2009). Like expected, the temperature change caused by the insolation forcing reveals an enhanced seasonal cycle, with a pronounced warming in summer (0.7 K) and autumn (1 K) and a cooling in the other seasons (spring: −0.8 K; winter −0.5 K). Most of this change can be attributed to the direct response of the atmosphere, but the ocean, whose reaction has a lagged seasonal cycle (warming in autumn and winter, cooling in the other seasons), strongly modifies the signal. The simulated contribution of dynamic vegetation is small and most effective in winter, where it slightly warms the near-surface atmosphere (≈0.05 K). Concerning the precipitation, the most remarkable change is the postponement and enhancement of the Asian monsoon (0.27 mm/d in summer, 0.23 mm/d in autumn), mainly related to the direct atmospheric response. On regional average, the ocean (ca. 0.05 mm/d) amplifies the direct effect, but tends to weaken the East Asian summer monsoon and strongly increases the Indian summer monsoon rainfall rate (0.68 mm/d). The influence of dynamic vegetation and synergy effects on precipitation is comparatively small.
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11

Martin, G. M., and R. C. Levine. "The influence of dynamic vegetation on the present-day simulation and future projections of the South Asian summer monsoon in the HadGEM2 family." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 3, no. 2 (2012): 759–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-759-2012.

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Abstract. Various studies have shown the importance of Earth System feedbacks in the climate system and the necessity of including these in models used for making climate change projections. The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model configurations combines model components which facilitate the representation of many different processes within the climate system, including atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and Earth System components including the terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle and tropospheric chemistry. We examine the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon in present-day simulations and in idealised climate change experiments in which a quadrupling of CO2 is applied as a step change. Members of the HadGEM2 family are used, with a common physical framework, one of which includes tropospheric chemistry and an interactive terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycle, to investigate whether such components affect the way in which the monsoon changes. We focus particularly on the role of interactive vegetation in the simulations from these model configurations. Using an atmosphere-only HadGEM2 configuration, we investigate how the changes in land cover which result from the interaction between the dynamic vegetation and the model systematic rainfall biases affect the Asian summer monsoon, both in the present-day and in future climate projections. We demonstrate that the response of the dynamic vegetation to biases in regional climate, such as lack of rainfall over tropical dust-producing regions, can affect both the present-day simulation and the response to climate change forcing scenarios.
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12

Beal, L. M., V. Hormann, R. Lumpkin, and G. R. Foltz. "The Response of the Surface Circulation of the Arabian Sea to Monsoonal Forcing." Journal of Physical Oceanography 43, no. 9 (2013): 2008–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-13-033.1.

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Abstract Two decades of drifter and satellite data allow the authors to describe the seasonal evolution of the surface circulation of the Arabian Sea, which reverses annually with the Indian monsoon winds. This study finds several features that advance current understanding. Most significantly, northward flow appears along the length of the western boundary, together with a weak anticyclone at 6°N (a precursor to the Great Whirl) as early as March or April, one or two months before the southwest monsoon winds. This circulation is driven by planetary waves, which are initiated by wind curl forcing during the previous southwest monsoon, leading the authors to speculate that there is an oceanic mechanism through which one monsoon may precondition the next. Second, the authors find that the eastward South Equatorial Counter Current (SECC) is present year-round, fed by the northward East African Coastal Current (EACC). During the southwest monsoon the EACC overshoots the equator and splits, feeding both northward into the Somali Current and eastward into the SECC by looping back across the equator. This retroflection of the EACC is what was previously known as the southern gyre. At the surface, this circulation is obscured by strong, locally wind-driven, cross-equatorial transport. The semiannual variability of the SECC is governed by Ekman pumping over the equatorial gyre. Finally, there is broad, strong eastward flow at the mouth of the Gulf of Aden throughout the southwest monsoon, coincident with alongshore winds and a switch in sign of the wind stress curl along the axis of the atmospheric monsoon jet.
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13

Liu, Haoya, Shumin Chen, Weibiao Li, Rong Fang, Zhuo Li, and Yushi Wu. "Atmospheric Response to Oceanic Cold Eddies West of Luzon in the Northern South China Sea." Atmosphere 10, no. 5 (2019): 255. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10050255.

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Using the compositing method, two kinds of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with mesoscale ocean eddies and their effects on the atmosphere over the northern South China Sea were investigated. We focused on Luzon cold eddies (LCEs), which form during the winter monsoon and occur repeatedly to the west of Luzon Island, where a SST front exists. Using satellite and reanalysis data, 20 LCEs from 2000–2016 were classified into two types according to their impact on the atmosphere. One type consisted of cold SST anomalies within the eddy interior; subsequent turbulent heat flux and surface wind speed decreased over the cold core, presenting a monopole pattern. The second type comprised SST anomalies on either side of the eddy, which mostly propagated along the SST front. For this type of LCEs, cyclonic eddy currents acting on the SST front led to the SST anomalies. They produced a dipole, with surface wind deceleration and acceleration over negative and positive SST anomalies, respectively, on either side of the eddy’s flank. Dynamically, for both types of LCE, a vertical mixing mechanism appeared to be responsible for the wind anomalies. Moreover, anomalous vertical circulations developed over the LCEs that extended over the whole boundary layer and penetrated into the free atmosphere, leading to an anomalous convective rain rate. Quantitatively, the surface wind speed changed linearly with SST; atmospheric anomalies related to LCEs explained 5%–14% of the total daily variance.
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14

Carton, James A., Semyon A. Grodsky, and Hailong Liu. "Variability of the Oceanic Mixed Layer, 1960–2004." Journal of Climate 21, no. 5 (2008): 1029–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007jcli1798.1.

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Abstract A new monthly uniformly gridded analysis of mixed layer properties based on the World Ocean Atlas 2005 global ocean dataset is used to examine interannual and longer changes in mixed layer properties during the 45-yr period 1960–2004. The analysis reveals substantial variability in the winter–spring depth of the mixed layer in the subtropics and midlatitudes. In the North Pacific an empirical orthogonal function analysis shows a pattern of mixed layer depth variability peaking in the central subtropics. This pattern occurs coincident with intensification of local surface winds and may be responsible for the SST changes associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation. Years with deep winter–spring mixed layers coincide with years in which winter–spring SST is low. In the North Atlantic a pattern of winter–spring mixed layer depth variability occurs that is not so obviously connected to local changes in winds or SST, suggesting that other processes such as advection are more important. Interestingly, at decadal periods the winter–spring mixed layers of both basins show trends, deepening by 10–40 m over the 45-yr period of this analysis. The long-term mixed layer deepening is even stronger (50–100 m) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. At tropical latitudes the boreal winter mixed layer varies in phase with the Southern Oscillation index, deepening in the eastern Pacific and shallowing in the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans during El Niños. In boreal summer the mixed layer in the Arabian Sea region of the western Indian Ocean varies in response to changes in the strength of the southwest monsoon.
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15

Johnson, Richard H., Steven L. Aves, Paul E. Ciesielski, and Thomas D. Keenan. "Organization of Oceanic Convection during the Onset of the 1998 East Asian Summer Monsoon." Monthly Weather Review 133, no. 1 (2005): 131–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-2843.1.

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Abstract The organizational modes of convection over the northern South China Sea (SCS) during the onset of the summer monsoon are documented using radar and sounding data from the May–June 1998 South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). The onset occurred in mid-May with a rapid increase in deep convection over a 10-day period, accompanied by a major shift in the circulation over the east Asian region. Analysis of Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) radar data from Dongsha Island reveals a wide range of organizational modes of convection over the northern SCS. Proximity sounding data indicate that lower- and middle-level vertical wind shears exerted a dominant control over the orientation of convective lines within mesoscale convective systems in this region, as has been found in the Australian monsoon region and the equatorial western Pacific. The results are consistent with the conceptual model of LeMone et al. based on the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), except two new organizational modes have been identified: shear-parallel bands for strong low-level shear and weak midlevel shear when there is weak instability and the air is dry aloft, and shear-parallel bands for strong shears in both layers when the shear vectors are in the same direction. Midlatitude influences, namely, the passage of troughs over southern China, likely contributed to these two additional modes. The stratiform rain fraction from the convective systems during the monsoon onset period was relatively small (26%) compared to the estimated average of about 40% for the entire Tropics. This small fraction is attributed to the weak instability during the onset period and relatively dry air in the upper troposphere.
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16

Liu, Ting, Jianping Li, Qiuyun Wang, and Sen Zhao. "Influence of the Autumn SST in the Southern Pacific Ocean on Winter Precipitation in the North American Monsoon Region." Atmosphere 11, no. 8 (2020): 844. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080844.

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Previous investigations have reported that the impacts of the preceding climate signal in the Southern Hemisphere can extend to Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes during the following season. This study suggests that the positive (negative) boreal autumn south Pacific Ocean dipole (SPOD) sea surface temperature anomalies are usually followed by reduced (increased) precipitation in the following winter over the North American monsoon (NAM) region. The positive autumn SPOD has the potential to regulate the southward fluctuation of the eddy-driven westerly jet in the southern Pacific Ocean, and exert the Rossby wave train stretching across the Pacific Ocean to transport the related energy into the NAM region. This finally results in anomalous high pressure in the troposphere over the NAM region. The related sinking motion and the water vapor conditions further affect the precipitation variability in these regions. This entire process can be referred to as a “coupled oceanic–atmospheric bridge”, in which the “oceanic bridge” is the SPOD and the “atmospheric bridge” is the response of atmospheric circulation in the Pacific Ocean.
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17

Justino, Flavio, Fred Kucharski, Douglas Lindemann, Aaron Wilson, and Frode Stordal. "A modified seasonal cycle during MIS31 super-interglacial favors stronger interannual ENSO and monsoon variability." Climate of the Past 15, no. 2 (2019): 735–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-735-2019.

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Abstract. It has long been recognized that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle can substantially modify climate features in distinct timescales. This study evaluates the impact of the enhanced seasonality characteristic of the Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS31) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based upon coupled climate simulations driven by present-day (CTR) and MIS31 boundary conditions, we demonstrate that the CTR simulation shows a significant concentration of power in the 3–7-year band and on the multidecadal timescale between 15 and 30 years. However, the MIS31 simulation shows drastically modified temporal variability of the ENSO, with stronger power spectrum at interannual timescales but the absence of decadal periodicity. Increased meridional gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics are revealed to be the primary candidates responsible for changes in the equatorial variability. The oceanic response to the MIS31 ENSO extends to the extratropics, and fits nicely with SST anomalies delivered by paleoreconstructions. The implementation of the MIS31 conditions results in a distinct global monsoon system and its link to the ENSO in respect to current conditions. In particular, the Indian monsoon intensified but no correlation with ENSO is found in the MIS31 climate, diverging from conditions delivered by our current climate in which this monsoon is significantly correlated with the NIÑO34 index. This indicates that monsoonal precipitation for this interglacial is more closely connected to hemispherical features than to the tropical–extratropical climate interaction.
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18

Mohino, E., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, C. R. Mechoso, S. Gervois, P. Ruti, and F. Chauvin. "Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon." Journal of Climate 24, no. 15 (2011): 3878–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli3988.1.

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Abstract The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.
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Lau, Ngar-Cheung, and Mary Jo Nath. "ENSO Modulation of the Interannual and Intraseasonal Variability of the East Asian Monsoon—A Model Study." Journal of Climate 19, no. 18 (2006): 4508–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3878.1.

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Abstract The impacts of ENSO on the evolution of the East Asian monsoon have been studied using output from a general circulation model experiment. Observed monthly variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) field have been prescribed in the tropical eastern and central Pacific, whereas the atmosphere has been coupled to an oceanic mixed layer model beyond this forcing region. During the boreal summer of typical El Niño events, a low-level cyclonic anomaly is simulated over the North Pacific in response to enhanced condensational heating over the equatorial central Pacific. Advective processes associated with the cyclone anomaly lead to temperature tendencies that set the stage for the abrupt establishment of a strong Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC) anomaly in the autumn. The synoptic development during the onset of the PSAC anomaly is similar to that accompanying cold-air surges over East Asia. The air–sea interactions accompanying the intraseasonal variations (ISV) in the model atmosphere exhibit a strong seasonal dependence. During the summer, the climatological monsoon trough over the subtropical western Pacific facilitates positive feedbacks between the atmospheric and oceanic fluctuations. Conversely, the prevalent northeasterly monsoon over this region in the winter leads to negative feedbacks. The onset of the PSAC anomaly is seen to be coincident with a prominent episode of the leading ISV mode. The ENSO events could influence the amplitude of the ISV by modulating the large-scale flow environment in which the ISV are embedded. Amplification of the summer monsoon trough over the western Pacific during El Niño enhances air–sea feedbacks on intraseasonal time scales, thereby raising the amplitudes of the ISV. A weakening of the northeasterly monsoon in El Niño winters suppresses the frequency and strength of the cold-air surges associated with the leading ISV mode in that season. Many aspects of the model simulation of the relationships between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon are in agreement with observational findings.
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Chen, Jinqiang, and Simona Bordoni. "Early Summer Response of the East Asian Summer Monsoon to Atmospheric CO2 Forcing and Subsequent Sea Surface Warming." Journal of Climate 29, no. 15 (2016): 5431–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0649.1.

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Abstract The early summer regional climate change of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is investigated in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. In the greenhouse gas–forced scenario, reduction of radiative cooling and increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the early summer rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Early summer rainfall anomalies over east China are a direct consequence of local land–sea contrast, while changes in the large-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH). Ad hoc numerical simulations with the AM2.1 general circulation model show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in early summer rainfall changes in the EASM region.
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Wang, Dongliang, Lijun Yao, Jing Yu, Pimao Chen, and Ruirui Hu. "Response to Environmental Factors of Spawning Ground in the Pearl River Estuary, China." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 7 (2021): 763. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse9070763.

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Spawning grounds are important areas for fish survival and reproduction, and play a key role in the supplement of fishery resources. This study investigated environmental effects on the spatiotemporal variability of spawning ground in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China, using the generalized additive model (GAM), based on satellite remote sensing (sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), sea surface salinity (SSS), depth), and in situ observations. Results showed that 39.8% of the total variation in fish egg density was explained by these factors. Among them, the most important factor was SST, accounting for 14.3%, followed by Depth, SSS, and Chl-a, with contributions of 9.7%, 8.5%, and 7.3%, respectively. Spawning grounds in the PRE were mainly distributed in the waters with SST of 22 °C, depth of 30–50 m, SSS of 16–35 ‰, and Chl-a of 6–15 mg/m3. From spring to summer, the spawning ground moved from the outlet of the PRE to the east. The distribution of the spawning ground in the PRE was mainly affected by the Pearl River Plume (PRP), Guangdong Coastal Current (GCC), and monsoons in this area.
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He, Chao, and Wen Zhou. "Different Enhancement of the East Asian Summer Monsoon under Global Warming and Interglacial Epochs Simulated by CMIP6 Models: Role of the Subtropical High." Journal of Climate 33, no. 22 (2020): 9721–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0304.1.

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AbstractSoutherly wind in the lower troposphere is an essential feature of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which is reported to be enhanced under global warming scenarios and interglacial epochs. Based on an analysis of an ensemble of CMIP6 models, this study shows that the magnitude of intensification of the EASM circulation is much smaller under global warming scenarios than during interglacial epochs. Distinct changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) are responsible for the different responses of the EASM circulation. The WNPSH is substantially enhanced during interglacial epochs, which acts to strengthen the southerly wind associated with the EASM on the western flank of the WNPSH. However, the change in the WNPSH is insignificant and cannot strengthen the EASM under global warming scenarios, and the weakly enhanced EASM circulation may be a direct response to intensified heating over the Tibetan Plateau. The land–ocean thermal contrast explains the different responses of the WNPSH. During interglacial epochs, the summertime surface warming over the subtropical North Pacific is much weaker than over Eurasia due to the large thermal inertia of the ocean to increased insolation, and the WNPSH is intensified as a response to the suppressed latent heating over the subtropical North Pacific. The fast response of the WNPSH to abrupt quadrupling of CO2 without sufficient ocean warming is an analog to the interglacial epochs, but it is offset by the effect of slow oceanic warming, resulting in an insignificant change of the WNPSH under global warming scenarios.
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Hu, Wenting, Anmin Duan, and Guoxiong Wu. "Impact of Subdaily Air–Sea Interaction on Simulating Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Tropical Asian Monsoon Region." Journal of Climate 28, no. 3 (2015): 1057–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00407.1.

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Abstract The off-equatorial boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is closely linked to the onset, active, and break phases of the tropical Asian monsoon, but the accurate simulation of the eastward-propagating low-frequency ISO by current models remains a challenge. In this study, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)–ocean mixed layer coupled model with high (10 min) coupling frequency (DC_10m) shows improved skill in simulating the ISO signal in terms of period, intensity, and propagation direction, compared with the coupled runs with low (1 and 12 h) coupling frequency and a stand-alone AGCM driven by the daily sea surface temperature (SST) fields. In particular, only the DC_10m is able to recreate the observed lead–lag phase relationship between SST (SST tendency) and precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, indicating that the ISO signal is closely linked to the subdaily air–sea interaction. During the ISO life cycle, air–sea interaction reduces the SST underlying the convection via wind–evaporation and cloud–radiation feedbacks, as well as wind-induced oceanic mixing, which in turn restrains convection. However, to the east of the convection, the heat-induced atmospheric Gill-type response leads to downward motion and a reduced surface westerly background flow because of the easterly anomalies. The resultant decreased oceanic mixing, together with the increased shortwave flux, tends to warm the SST and subsequently trigger convection. Therefore, the eastward-propagating ISO may result from an asymmetric east–west change in SST induced mainly by multiscale air–sea interactions.
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Wang, Fuyao, Michael Notaro, Zhengyu Liu, and Guangshan Chen. "Observed Local and Remote Influences of Vegetation on the Atmosphere across North America Using a Model-Validated Statistical Technique That First Excludes Oceanic Forcings*." Journal of Climate 27, no. 1 (2014): 362–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00080.1.

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Abstract The observed local and nonlocal influences of vegetation on the atmosphere across North America are quantified after first removing the oceanic impact. The interaction between vegetation and the atmosphere is dominated by forcing from the atmosphere, making it difficult to extract the forcing from vegetation. Furthermore, the atmosphere is not only influenced by vegetation but also the oceans, so in order to extract the vegetation impact, the oceanic forcing must first be excluded. This study identified significant vegetation impact in two climatically and ecologically unique regions: the North American monsoon region (NAMR) and the North American boreal forest (NABF). A multivariate statistical method, a generalized equilibrium feedback assessment, is applied to extract vegetation influence on the atmosphere. The statistical method is validated using a dynamical experiment for the NAMR in a fully coupled climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3.5 (CCSM3.5). The observed influence of NAMR vegetation on the atmosphere peaks in June–August and is primarily attributed to both roughness and hydrological feedbacks. Elevated vegetation amount increases evapotranspiration and surface roughness, which leads to a local decline in sea level pressure and generates an atmospheric teleconnection response. This atmospheric response leads to moister and cooler (drier and warmer) conditions over the western and central United States (Gulf states). The observed influence of the NABF on the atmosphere peaks in March–May, related to a thermal feedback. Enhanced vegetation greenness increases the air temperature locally. The atmosphere tends to form a positive Pacific–North American (PNA)-like pattern, and this anomalous atmospheric circulation and associated moisture advection lead to moister (drier) conditions in the western (eastern) United States.
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Li, Zhiyuan, Daji Huang, Chuanxi Xing, and Xiuyang Lü. "The synoptic variation of Yellow Sea Warm Current in winter and its mechanisms." International Journal of Numerical Methods for Heat & Fluid Flow 29, no. 2 (2019): 724–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/hff-05-2018-0255.

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Purpose This paper aims to investigate the basin-scale features and mechanisms of the synoptic variation of Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) in winter. Design/methodology/approach Both in situ current observation and numerical model (MITgcm) were conducted to investigate the synoptic variation of YSWC. The model was well validated and the simulated results were analyzed. Findings The YSWC shows a much stronger synoptic variation than its mean in winter with strong variation mainly in the deep central YS. The synoptic variation of YSWC is associated a counterclockwise rotary wave as a response to the strong northerly wind bursts. Strong northerly wind generates a large sea surface height (SSH) drop in the Bohai Sea and northern YS. Then, the SSH rotates in a counterclockwise manner. About 18 h later, strong eastward SSH gradient is formed, generating a northward current through geostrophic balance. Originality/value The mechanisms analysis shows that the synoptic variation of YSWC is intrinsically linked to SSH as a response to the synoptic varying winter monsoon. This study provides an insight into the spatial and temporal evolution of the oceanic response to strong northerly wind in winter.
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Xi, Jingyuan, Lei Zhou, Raghu Murtugudde, and Lianghong Jiang. "Impacts of Intraseasonal SST Anomalies on Precipitation during Indian Summer Monsoon." Journal of Climate 28, no. 11 (2015): 4561–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00096.1.

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Abstract The forcing and response relation between the ocean and the atmosphere is often a two-way street. Based on the correlation between the surface heat flux and sea surface temperature (SST), it is found that the ocean plays an active role during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in two regions: one is the western coast of the Indian peninsula (WCI) and the other is the northern Bay of Bengal (NBB). A focus is made on the impacts of intraseasonal oceanic variabilities on heavy precipitation in these two regions during the ISM. Results show that warm intraseasonal SST anomalies contribute to the instabilities and deep convection in the atmosphere. In WCI, static instability is largely responsible for triggering convection, while in NBB, convection is mainly attributable to baroclinic instability. Despite such regional differences in instability mechanisms, heavy precipitation events during the ISM usually occur within ~3–6 days after the warm SST anomalies are organized. Understanding this process will be helpful to improve the predictive skill of the intraseasonal variabilities during the ISM, which is the lifeline for the countries on the rim of the Indian Ocean, whose food production depends critically on this seasonal phenomenon.
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27

Sun, Zhong-Xiu, Qiu-Bing Wang, Chun-Lan Han, Qing-Jie Zhang, and Phillip R. Owens. "Clay mineralogical characteristics and the palaeoclimatic significance of a Holocene to Late Middle Pleistocene loess–palaeosol sequence from Chaoyang, China." Earth and Environmental Science Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh 106, no. 3 (2015): 185–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1755691016000098.

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ABSTRACTChanges in soil chemistry in response to varying climatic regimes can alter the equilibria of soil systems and result in different clay minerals. Variations in phyllosilicate clay composition can reflect temporal and spatial climatic changes, such as summer/winter monsoon cycles. The objective of this research was to investigate the mineralogy of the clay fractions as a proxy for determining variations in the East Asian monsoon climate, based on a section at Chaoyang in China spanning the last 0.423 Ma BP. The clay mineralogy record in the Chaoyang section was compared with other proxies as recorded in this section and with other palaeoclimatic indicators, including oxygen isotopes from oceanic sediments and loess–palaeosol sections on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). The results from clay mineralogy and related climatic studies show that the summer monsoon has a trend of four increased stages and four decreased stages; whereas the winter monsoon displays the opposite trend. During the last 0.423 Ma BP, the strongest winter monsoon occurred around 0.243–0.311 Ma BP. During this period, which included an intense winter monsoon, the soil in the section had the least illite, one of the smallest kaolinite and illite/Chlorite (I/C) indices and an overall decreasing clay content. The period 0.225–0.243 Ma BP had the strongest summer monsoon over the last 0.423 Ma BP. This period had the greatest amount of illite, the highest I/C index, greater overall clay content and the strongest magnetic susceptibility signal. Additionally, this section contained the smallest mean grain size. The multi-monsoon climate cycles of alternating cold-dry and warm-moist conditions as recorded in the Chaoyang section corresponded well with multiple glaciation cycles based on deep sea sediments. This indicates that the Chaoyang section provides a record of palaeoclimate changes in northeast China that can be linked to mineralogical suites to assist in reconstructing the palaeoclimate over the Late Middle Pleistocene, and complements the global palaeoclimate records in the CLP.
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Zhang, Weihong, Jiangying Wu, Yi Wang, et al. "A detailed East Asian monsoon history surrounding the ‘Mystery Interval’ derived from three Chinese speleothem records." Quaternary Research 82, no. 1 (2014): 154–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2014.01.010.

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AbstractThe ‘Mystery Interval’ (MI, 17.5−14.5 ka) was the first stage of the last deglaciation, a key interval for understanding mechanisms of glacial–interglacial cycles. To elucidate possible causes of the MI, here we present three high-resolution, precisely dated oxygen-isotope records of stalagmites from Qingtian and Hulu Caves in China, reflecting changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) then. Based on well-established chronologies using precise 230Th dates and annual-band counting results, the two-cave δ18O profiles of ~7-yr resolution match well at decadal timescales. Both of the two-cave records document an abrupt weakening (2‰ of δ18O rise within 20 yr) in the EASM at ~16.1 ka, coinciding with the transition of the two-phased MI reconstructed from New Mexico's Lake Estancia. Our results indicate that the maximum southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and associated southward shift of polar jet stream may generate this two-phase feature of the MI during that time. We also discover a linear relationship among decreasing EASM intensity, rising atmospheric CO2 and weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation between the MI and Younger Dryas episodes, suggesting a strong coupling of atmospheric/oceanic circulations in response to the millennial-scale forcing, which in turn regulates global climate changes and carbon cycles.
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Liu, Z., S. P. Harrison, J. Kutzbach, and B. Otto-Bliesner. "Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback." Climate Dynamics 22, no. 2-3 (2004): 157–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0372-y.

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Jo, Kyoung-nam, Kyung Sik Woo, Hai Cheng, et al. "Textural and carbon isotopic evidence of monsoonal changes recorded in a composite-type speleothem from Korea since MIS 5a." Quaternary Research 74, no. 1 (2010): 100–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2010.04.005.

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AbstractTextural and stable isotopic records of a composite-type speleothem from Gwaneum Cave in the eastern part of the Korean peninsula show prominent paleoenvironmental changes since MIS (marine oxygen isotope stage) 5a. Based on 230Th/234U dating, the speleothem experienced growth from 90.9 ± 6.5 ka to 1.2 ± 0.5 ka with several hiatuses. Four growth phases (A, B, C and D) are recognized based on speleothem type and texture. Very irregular and laterally discontinuous growth laminae in Phases B and C indicate that the cave coralloids grew over the stalagmite (Phase A) when the supply of dripping water became limited. Variations within the δ13C time series of Phase A are interpreted as responses to millennial-scale fluctuations of the East Asian monsoon intensity during MIS 5a. The monsoonal interpretation is based on the idea that δ13C values reflect the isotopic composition of soil-derived CO2, which, in turn, should relate to monsoon-driven changes in terrestrial productivity above the cave during the MIS 5a. Our reconstruction reveals that the significant monsoonal changes on the Korean peninsula occurred in conjunction with changes in sea level and/or oceanic circulations during the transition period from MIS 5a to MIS 4.
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31

Kageyama, M., J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, C. Marzin, R. Alkama, and O. Marti. "Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model." Climate of the Past 5, no. 3 (2009): 551–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-551-2009.

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Abstract. Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv) resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv) AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv) are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the Indian monsoon weakening appears to be connected to the North Atlantic cooling via that of the troposphere over Eurasia. Such an understanding of these teleconnections and their timing could be useful for paleodata interpretation.
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Le, Thanh, and Deg-Hyo Bae. "Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 3 (2020): 1131–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020.

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Abstract. Climate extremes, such as floods and droughts, might have severe economic and societal impacts. Given the high costs associated with these events, developing early-warning systems is of high priority. Evaporation, which is driven by around 50 % of solar energy absorbed at surface of the Earth, is an important indicator of the global water budget, monsoon precipitation, drought monitoring and the hydrological cycle. Here we investigate the response of global evaporation to main modes of interannual climate variability, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These climate modes may have an influence on temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and wind speed and are likely to have impacts on global evaporation. We utilized data of historical simulations and RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway) future simulations derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results indicate that ENSO is an important driver of evaporation for many regions, especially the tropical Pacific. The significant IOD influence on evaporation is limited in western tropical Indian Ocean, while NAO is more likely to have impacts on evaporation of the North Atlantic European areas. There is high agreement between models in simulating the effects of climate modes on evaporation of these regions. Land evaporation is found to be less sensitive to considered climate modes compared to oceanic evaporation. The spatial influence of major climate modes on global evaporation is slightly more significant for NAO and the IOD and slightly less significant for ENSO in the 1906–2000 period compared to the 2006–2100 period. This study allows us to obtain insight about the predictability of evaporation and hence, may improve the early-warning systems of climate extremes and water resource management.
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Colfescu, Ioana, and Edwin K. Schneider. "Decomposition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Historical Climate Simulation." Journal of Climate 33, no. 10 (2020): 4229–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0180.1.

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AbstractThe Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) modulates various climate features worldwide with enormous societal and economic implications, including variations in hurricane activity in the Atlantic, sea level, West African and Indian monsoon rainfall, European climate, and hemispheric-scale surface temperature. Leading hypotheses regarding the nature and origin of AMV focus primarily on its links with oceanic and coupled ocean–atmosphere internal variability, and on its response to external forcing. The role of another possible process, that of atmospheric noise forcing of the ocean, has received less attention. This is addressed here by means of historical coupled simulations and diagnostic experiments, which isolate the influences of external and atmospheric noise forcings. Our findings show that external forcing is an important driver of the simulated AMV. They also demonstrate that weather noise is key in driving the simulated internal AMV in the southern part (0°–60°N) of the AMV region, and that weather noise forcing is responsible for up to 10%–20% of the multidecadal internal SST variability in some isolated areas of the subpolar gyre region. Ocean dynamics independent from the weather noise forcing is found to be the dominant cause of multidecadal SST in the northern part of the AMV region.
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Nakanishi, Tomoe, Yoshihiro Tachibana, and Yuta Ando. "Possible semi-circumglobal teleconnection across Eurasia driven by deep convection over the Sahel." Climate Dynamics 57, no. 7-8 (2021): 2287–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05804-x.

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AbstractThe Sahel region, located between the tropical rainforests of Africa and the Sahara Desert, has rainfall that varies widely from year to year, associated with extremely deep convection. This deep convection, strongly heated by water vapor condensation, suggests the possibility of exerting a remote influence on mid- and high-latitude climate similar to the well-known influences of tropical oceanic convection on global climate. Here we investigate the possibility that deep convection over the Sahel initiates a semi-circumglobal teleconnection extending to eastern Eurasia. Statistical analysis and numerical experiments support the possible existence of this teleconnection at an interannual time scale. We propose that the anomalous heat source due to deep convection over the Sahel in the late monsoon season influences meandering of the mid-latitude jet stream over Europe through the combination of a Matsuno-Gill response and advection of absolute vorticity. This subtropical jet meander may in turn drive an eastward propagation of a Rossby wave across Eurasia as far as East Asia. Because deep convection over other subtropical land areas may exert a similar remote influence upon extratropical extreme weather, further studies of the influence of overland convection may provide us with an expanded comprehension of teleconnections.
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35

Ciesielski, Paul E., and Richard H. Johnson. "Diurnal Cycle of Surface Flows during 2004 NAME and Comparison to Model Reanalysis." Journal of Climate 21, no. 15 (2008): 3890–913. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2206.1.

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Abstract During the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME), an unprecedented surface dataset was collected over the core monsoon region. Observations from 157 surface sites in this region along with twice-daily Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic winds were quality controlled and processed into a gridded dataset covering the domain (15°–40°N, 90°–120°W) at 1-h, 0.25° resolution for the period from 1 July to 15 August. Using this dataset, the mean, temporal variability, and diurnal characteristics of the monsoon surface flow are documented with detail not previously possible. Being independent of model data over land, these objectively analyzed surface products are compared to similar analyses from a special North American Regional Reanlysis for NAME (NARR_NAME) that was produced for the same period. Observed surface fields indicate that a robust land–sea breeze circulation is present over most of the Gulf of California (GoC) region in response to the strong diurnal heating of landmasses on both sides of the gulf. Many details of this land–sea breeze circulation are either missing (e.g., the nighttime/early morning land breeze) or poorly represented in the NARR_NAME. Observations from high elevation sites in the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) show weak downslope flows (∼0.5 m s−1), near-saturated conditions, and low cloud bases during nighttime hours. These observations are consistent with the notion that high-terrain nocturnal clouds limit radiational cooling and, thus, nocturnal downslope flows as well. Over land, a cool and dry bias is observed in the NARR_NAME surface fields. This dry bias appears to limit the formation of nighttime cloudiness at high elevations, resulting in stronger radiational cooling at night and slope flows in the NARR_NAME that are 2–3 times stronger than observed. In addition, the daytime transition to surface convergence and rising motion over the western slopes of the SMO occurs about 3 h earlier in the NARR_NAME than observed, which indicates the tendency in the reanalyses to initiate the daily convective cycle too early, similar to that observed in operational forecast models over this region. Following significant rainfall events, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration due to vegetative green-up result in a smaller diurnal temperature signal over land and weaker slope flows over the SMO. In response to this weaker heating cycle, the magnitude and offshore extent of the land–sea breeze circulation is observed to diminish as the monsoon progresses.
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Yang, Qing, Zhuguo Ma, Xingang Fan, Zong-Liang Yang, Zhongfeng Xu, and Peili Wu. "Decadal Modulation of Precipitation Patterns over Eastern China by Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies." Journal of Climate 30, no. 17 (2017): 7017–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0793.1.

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Annual precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized by a north–south dipole pattern, referred to as the “southern flooding and northern drought” pattern (SF/ND), fluctuating on decadal time scales. Previous research has suggested possible links with oceanic forcing, but the underlying physical mechanisms by which sea surface temperature (SST) variability impacts the dipole pattern remains unclear. Idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments conducted by the U.S. CLIVAR Drought Working Group are used to investigate the role of historical SST anomalies associated with Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) patterns in this dipole pattern. The results show that the Pacific SST pattern plays a dominant role in driving the decadal variability of this dipole pattern and the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies, whereas the Atlantic SST pattern contributes to a much lesser degree. The direct atmospheric response to the Pacific SST pattern is a large-scale cyclonic or anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere occupying the entire northern North Pacific. During the warm phase of the Pacific SST pattern, it is cyclonic with northwesterly wind anomalies over northern China pushing the monsoon front to the south and consequently SF/ND. During the cold phase of the Pacific SST pattern, the circulation anomaly reverses with southeasterly winds over northern China allowing the monsoon front and the associated rainband to migrate northward, resulting in southern drought and northern flooding. The Atlantic SST pattern plays a supplementary role, enhancing the dipole pattern when the Pacific SST and Atlantic SST patterns are in opposite phases and weakening it when the phases are the same.
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Duan, Fucai, Zhenqiu Zhang, Yi Wang, et al. "Hydrological variations in central China over the past millennium and their links to the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans." Climate of the Past 16, no. 2 (2020): 475–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-475-2020.

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Abstract. Variations of precipitation, also called the Meiyu rain, in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain during the last millennium could help enlighten the hydrological response to future global warming. Here we present a precisely dated and highly resolved stalagmite δ18O record from the Yongxing Cave, central China. Our new record, combined with a previously published one from the same cave, indicates that the Meiyu rain has changed dramatically in association with the global temperature change. In particular, our record shows that the Meiyu rain was weakened during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) but intensified during the Little Ice Age (LIA). During the Current Warm Period (CWP), our record indicates a similar weakening of the Meiyu rain. Furthermore, during the MCA and CWP, our records show that the atmospheric precipitation is similarly wet in northern China and similarly dry in central China, but relatively wet during the CWP in southern China. This spatial discrepancy indicates a complicated localized response of the regional precipitation to the anthropogenic forcing. The weakened (intensified) Meiyu rain during the MCA (LIA) matches well with the warm (cold) phases of Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. This Meiyu rain pattern also corresponds well to the climatic conditions over the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool. On the other hand, our record shows a strong association with the North Atlantic climate as well. The reduced (increased) Meiyu rain correlates well with positive (negative) phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In addition, our record links well to the strong (weak) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA (LIA) period. All abovementioned localized correspondences and remote teleconnections on decadal to centennial timescales indicate that the Meiyu rain was coupled closely with oceanic processes in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans during the MCA and LIA.
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38

Mojtahedin, Elham, Fatemeh Hadavi, and Razyeh Lak. "Distribution of coccolithophores as a potential proxy in paleoceanography: The case of the Oman Sea monsoonal pattern." Geologica Carpathica 66, no. 1 (2015): 69–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/geoca-2015-0011.

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Abstract High abundances of coccoliths have been observed in surface sediment samples from near the coasts of the Oman Sea in February 2011. At the end of the NE monsoon, the locally observed high Gephyrocapsa oceanica production is hypothesized to respond to local injections of nutrient-rich deep water into the surface water due to sea-surface cooling leading to convection. The most abundant coccolithophore species are G. oceanica followed by Emiliania huxleyi, Helicosphaera carteri, Calcidiscus leptoporus. Some species, such as Gephyrocapsa muellerae, Gephyrocapsa ericsonii, Umbilicosphaera sibogae, Umbellosphaera tenuis and Florisphaera profunda, are rare. The G. oceanica suggested a prevalence of upwelling conditions or high supply of nutrients in the Oman Sea (especially West Jask) at the end of the NE monsoon. E. huxleyi showed low relative abundances at the end of the NE monsoon. Due to the location of the Oman Sea in low latitudes with high temperatures, we have observed low abundances of G. muellerae in the study area. Additionally, we have identified low abundances of G. ericsonii at the end of the NE monsoon. Helicosphaera carteri showed a clear negative response with decreasing amounts (relative abundances) at the end of the NE monsoon. C. leptoporus, U. sibogae and U. tenuis have very low relative abundances in the NE monsoon and declined extremely at the end of the NE monsoon. F. profunda, which is known to inhabit the lower photic zone (<100 m depht) was rarely observed in the samples.
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39

Immerzeel, Walter W., and Marc F. P. Bierkens. "Asian Water Towers: More on Monsoons—Response." Science 330, no. 6004 (2010): 585.1–585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.330.6004.585-a.

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40

Pandey, D. K., Anju Pandey, Peter D. Clift, et al. "Flexural subsidence analysis of the Laxmi Basin, Arabian Sea and its tectonic implications." Geological Magazine 157, no. 6 (2018): 834–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0016756818000833.

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AbstractTwo-dimensional flexural backstripping and thermal modelling (assuming laterally variable stretching) is applied along regional depth-converted interpreted seismic profiles from the Laxmi Basin in the Arabian Sea. Results from reverse post-rift flexural modelling reveal considerable basin-wide subsidence in response to the crustal geodynamics during and after the last extensional phase. Unloading of the stratigraphy allows us to estimate the degree of laterally varying extension, assuming thermal subsidence and pure shear. High degrees of extension in the basin centre predict considerable water depths at the time of rift cessation, consistent with deep drilling data. We suggest that regional extension prior to Paleocene time could have fuelled variable subsidence in the Laxmi Basin but that extension is less than seen in typical oceanic lithosphere. Volcanic loading by the seamounts shortly after extension has flexed the basin and implies an effective elastic thickness (Te) at that time of ∼6 km. Reconstruction of the seamount top near sea level at the end of emplacement indicates no major transient uplift potentially linked to the Deccan mantle plume activity. Backstripping of post-rift sediments from interpreted seismic profiles supports the presence of a hyper-thinned crust underneath the Laxmi Basin, with β factors reaching >7 in the basin centre and ∼3 across much of the basin width. Computations of decompacted sediment accumulation rates in light of new results from IODP Expedition 355 show that basin sedimentation peaked during early–middle Miocene time, possibly coeval with uplift and erosion of the Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau driven by strong summer monsoon rains.
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41

Mochizuki, Takashi, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, et al. "Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107, no. 5 (2010): 1833–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906531107.

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Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal. We perform sets of ensemble hindcast and forecast experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to examine the predictability of internal variations on decadal timescales, in addition to the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, volcanic activity, and solar cycle variations. Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade, particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region, and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise.
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42

Wang, Yanjiao, and Feng Yan. "Retrieval of Outgoing Longwave Radiation from the Fengyun-3D Satellite and Its Climate Applications." Remote Sensing 13, no. 18 (2021): 3700. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13183700.

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The Fengyun-3D (FY-3D) satellite is a Chinese Earth observation satellite with high spectral resolution that can provide multi-spectral observations under all weather conditions. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is an important parameter in the earth radiation energy balance and can reflect changes in atmospheric circulation and convective activity in response to incoming solar radiation. To apply the OLR data of the FY-3D satellite (F_OLR) to weather and climate analyses, the traditional single-channel OLR inversion algorithm for the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite was used to calculate F_OLR, and the difference between F_OLR and the OLR data of the NOAA 18 satellite (N_OLR) was analyzed. A correction algorithm was proposed to correct F_OLR to match N_OLR; the spatiotemporal consistency of the corrected F_OLR and N_OLR was evaluated, and the two types of OLR data were used to analyze the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) and typhoon precipitation in China. The results showed that the corrected F_OLR and N_OLR were consistent in both temporal variation and spatial distribution and that the monitoring of the SCSSM and typhoon precipitation by the two types of OLR data was also in agreement, showing their equivalent quality. Finally, the N_OLR (2006–2019) and the corrected F_OLR (2020-present) were combined to form a long time series OLR dataset that was used in the Beijing Climate Center climate monitoring system in China to monitor abnormal changes in the global convective activity. This study can provide a reference method for future weather and climate applications of Chinese satellites.
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43

Park, Young-Hyang, Jong-Hwan Yoon, Yong-Hoon Youn, and Frédéric Vivier. "Recent Warming in the Western North Pacific in Relation to Rapid Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation of the Siberian High and Aleutian Low Systems*." Journal of Climate 25, no. 10 (2012): 3476–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011jcli4142.1.

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Abstract On the basis of a new East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) index and by analyzing the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and different atmospheric and oceanic factors in winter, this study investigates the causes of the recent unusual warming in the western North Pacific Ocean. Analyses presented here emphasize the dual contribution from the atmosphere and ocean to the local SST variability, with the relative importance of each contributor varying with the period and place. During the period 1970–89, the EAWM, controlled mostly by the Siberian high, is predominantly responsible for the SST variability in most of the western North Pacific, whereas in the period 1990–2005 ocean dynamics become increasingly important in most places or even dominant in the Kuroshio–Oyasio Extension (KOE) region. The delayed response of the KOE SST to basinwide wind stress curl forcing via Rossby waves is epoch dependent and is significant at lags of 1, 3, and 4 yr before 1990 but only at 1 yr afterward. This epoch dependency of the impact of Rossby waves is related to the different locations of the centers of action of wind stress curl in the midlatitude North Pacific between the two epochs. In addition, mean advection of the EAWM-driven anomalous SST from the southern East China Sea, which can be transported into the KOE region in about a year by the Kuroshio, likely affects the KOE SST lagged by 1 yr. The strongest positive SST trend observed in the western North Pacific results from the combined effects of the abrupt weakening of the EAWM due to the unprecedented decline of the Siberian high and the increasing role of the ocean. The latter is best evidenced by the 1-yr delayed response of the western North Pacific via the gyre circulation adjustment to the basinwide decadal-scale wind stress curl change associated with the northward shift of the strengthened Aleutian low.
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44

D’Agostino, Roberta, Josephine R. Brown, Aurel Moise, Hanh Nguyen, Pedro L. Silva Dias, and Johann Jungclaus. "Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global Warming." Journal of Climate 33, no. 22 (2020): 9595–613. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0672.1.

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AbstractPast changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy input and weakening of the dynamic component. In contrast, SH monsoons strengthen and expand in the RCP8.5 multimodel mean, as a result of increased net energy input and strengthening of the thermodynamic component. However, important regional differences on monsoonal precipitation emerge from the local response of Hadley and Walker circulations. In the midHolocene, the combined effect of Walker–Hadley changes explains the land–ocean precipitation contrast. Conversely, the increased local gross moist stability explains the increased local precipitation and net energy input under circulation weakening in RCP8.5.
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45

Govin, A., C. M. Chiessi, M. Zabel, et al. "Terrigenous input off northern South America driven by changes in Amazonian climate and the North Brazil Current retroflection during the last 250 ka." Climate of the Past 10, no. 2 (2014): 843–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-843-2014.

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Abstract. We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land–ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.
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46

Xu, Qi, Zhaoyong Guan, Dachao Jin, and Dingzhu Hu. "Regional Characteristics of Interannual Variability of Summer Rainfall in the Maritime Continent and Their Related Anomalous Circulation Patterns." Journal of Climate 32, no. 14 (2019): 4179–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0480.1.

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Abstract Using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and Global Precipitation Climatology Project monthly rainfall, we have investigated the regional features of interannual variations of rainfall in the Maritime Continent (MC) and their related anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns during boreal summer by employing the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis. Our results demonstrate that the rainfall variabilities in the MC are of very striking regional characteristics. The MC is divided into four independent subregions on the basis of the leading REOF modes; these subregions are located in central-eastern Indonesia (subregion I), the oceanic area to the west of Indonesia (subregion II+V), the part of the warm pool in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean (subregion III), and Guam (subregion IV+VI).The anomalous precipitation in different subregions exhibits different variation periodicities, which are associated with different circulation patterns as a result of atmospheric response to different sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific sector. It is found that rainfall anomalies in subregion I are induced by the Pacific ENSO, whereas those in subregion II+V are dominated by a triple SSTA pattern with positive correlations in the MC and negative correlation centers in the tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall anomalies in subregion III mainly resulted from an SSTA pattern with negative correlations in the eastern MC and positive correlations in the western equatorial Pacific east of the MC. A horseshoe SSTA pattern in the central Pacific is found to affect the precipitation anomalies in subregion IV+VI. All of the results of this study are helpful for us to better understand both the climate variations in the MC and monsoon variations in East Asia.
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47

Fu, Lee-Lueng. "Intraseasonal Variability of the Equatorial Indian Ocean Observed from Sea Surface Height, Wind, and Temperature Data." Journal of Physical Oceanography 37, no. 2 (2007): 188–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo3006.1.

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Abstract The forcing of the equatorial Indian Ocean by the highly periodic monsoon wind cycle creates many interesting intraseasonal variabilities. The frequency spectrum of the wind stress observations from the European Remote Sensing Satellite scatterometers reveals peaks at the seasonal cycle and its higher harmonics at 180, 120, 90, and 75 days. The observations of sea surface height (SSH) from the Jason and Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon radar altimeters are analyzed to study the ocean’s response. The focus of the study is on the intraseasonal periods shorter than the annual period. The semiannual SSH variability is characterized by a basin mode involving Rossby waves and Kelvin waves traveling back and forth in the equatorial Indian Ocean between 10°S and 10°N. However, the interference of these waves with each other masks the appearance of individual Kelvin and Rossby waves, leading to a nodal point (amphidrome) of phase propagation on the equator at the center of the basin. The characteristics of the mode correspond to a resonance of the basin according to theoretical models. For the semiannual period and the size of the basin, the resonance involves the second baroclinic vertical mode of the ocean. The theory also calls for similar modes at 90 and 60 days. These modes are found only in the eastern part of the basin, where the wind forcing at these periods is primarily located. The western parts of the theoretical modal patterns are not observed, probably because of the lack of wind forcing. There is also similar SSH variability at 120 and 75 days. The 120-day variability, with spatial patterns resembling the semiannual mode, is close to a resonance involving the first baroclinic vertical mode. The 75-day variability, although not a resonant basin mode in theory, exhibits properties similar to the 60- and 90-day variabilities with energy confined to the eastern basin, where the SSH variability seems in resonance with the local wind forcing. The time it takes an oceanic signal to travel eastward as Kelvin waves from the forcing location along the equator and back as Rossby waves off the equator roughly corresponds to the period of the wind forcing. The SSH variability at 60–90 days is coherent with sea surface temperature (SST) with a near-zero phase difference, showing the effects of the time-varying thermocline depth on SST, which may affect the wind in an ocean–atmosphere coupled process governing the intraseasonal variability.
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48

Boos, William R., and Trude Storelvmo. "Near-linear response of mean monsoon strength to a broad range of radiative forcings." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 6 (2016): 1510–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1517143113.

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Theoretical models have been used to argue that seasonal mean monsoons will shift abruptly and discontinuously from wet to dry stable states as their radiative forcings pass a critical threshold, sometimes referred to as a “tipping point.” Further support for a strongly nonlinear response of monsoons to radiative forcings is found in the seasonal onset of the South Asian summer monsoon, which is abrupt compared with the annual cycle of insolation. Here it is shown that the seasonal mean strength of monsoons instead exhibits a nearly linear dependence on a wide range of radiative forcings. First, a previous theory that predicted a discontinuous, threshold response is shown to omit a dominant stabilizing term in the equations of motion; a corrected theory predicts a continuous and nearly linear response of seasonal mean monsoon strength to forcings. A comprehensive global climate model is then used to show that the seasonal mean South Asian monsoon exhibits a near-linear dependence on a wide range of isolated greenhouse gas, aerosol, and surface albedo forcings. This model reproduces the observed abrupt seasonal onset of the South Asian monsoon but produces a near-linear response of the mean monsoon by changing the duration of the summer circulation and the latitude of that circulation’s ascent branch. Thus, neither a physically correct theoretical model nor a comprehensive climate model support the idea that seasonal mean monsoons will undergo abrupt, nonlinear shifts in response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol emissions, or land surface albedo.
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49

Kageyama, M., J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, C. Marzin, R. Alkama, and O. Marti. "Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model." Climate of the Past Discussions 5, no. 2 (2009): 1055–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-5-1055-2009.

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Abstract. Numerous records from the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents have shown rapid and large amplitude climate variability during the last glacial period. This variability has often been associated to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Rapid climate change on the same time scales has also been reconstructed for sites far away from the North Atlantic, such as the tropical Atlantic, the East Pacific and Asia. The mechanisms explaining these climatic responses to the state of the AMOC are far from being completely understood, especially in a glacial context. Here we study three glacial simulations characterised by different AMOC strengths: 18, 15 and 2 Sv. With these simulations, we analyse the global climate sensitivity to a weak (18 to 15 Sv) and a strong (15 to 2 Sv) decrease in the AMOC strength. A weak decrease in the AMOC is associated, in our model simulations, to the classical North Atlantic and European cooling, but this cooling is not homogeneous over this region. We investigate the reasons for a lesser cooling (or even slight warming in some cases) over the Norwegian Sea and Northwestern Europe. It appears that the convection site in this area is active in both simulations, but that convection is unexpectedly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation. Due to the large variability of the atmosphere, it is difficult to definitely establish what is the origin of this climatic difference, but it appears that the atmospheric circulation anomaly helps sustaining the activity of this convection sites. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is of small amplitude, the only significant change appearing in summer over the tropical Atlantic, where the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts southward. The climate differences between the 15 Sv and 2 Sv simulations are much larger and our analyses focus on three areas: the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the Tropics and the Indian monsoon region. We study the timing of appearance of these responses to the AMOC shutdown, which gives some clues about the mechanisms for these teleconnections. We show that the North Atlantic cooling associated with the collapse of the AMOC induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centered over the North Atlantic, which modulates the eastward advection of the cold anomaly over the Eurasian continent. It can explain that the cooling is not as strong over Western Europe as over the North Atlantic and the rest of the Eurasian continent. Another modification in the northern extratropical stationary waves occurs over the Eastern Pacific, explaining a warming over Northwestern America. In the Tropics, the ITCZ southward shift in this simulation appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an ajustment of the atmospheric and oceanic transports. Finally, the Indian monsoon weakening also appears to be connected to the tropospheric cooling over Eurasia.
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50

Lee, Craig, S. U. P. Jinadasa, Arachaporn Anutaliya, et al. "Collaborative Observations of Boundary Currents, Water Mass Variability, and Monsoon Response in the Southern Bay of Bengal." Oceanography 29, no. 2 (2016): 102–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.43.

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