Journal articles: 'Odds bets'

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Wang, Chen-Yi, and Panagis Filippakopoulos. "Beating the odds: BETs in disease." Trends in Biochemical Sciences 40, no. 8 (August 2015): 468–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tibs.2015.06.002.

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Barry, Daniel, and John A. Hartigan. "The minimax bookie." Journal of Applied Probability 33, no. 4 (December 1996): 1093–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3214988.

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A bookmaker makes a book on a horse race: he offers odds against the various horses winning the race, and gamblers accept bets at those odds when they find the odds attractive. The book at a particular time consists of the bookmaker's winnings according to the different outcomes of the race if the race were run at that time. We consider strategies the bookmaker might adopt when deciding how to alter his quoted odds as bets accumulate. The bookmaker is assumed to behave conservatively in the sense that he tries to minimise his expected maximum loss over all possible outcomes of the race.

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Barry, Daniel, and John A. Hartigan. "The minimax bookie." Journal of Applied Probability 33, no. 04 (December 1996): 1093–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200100506.

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A bookmaker makes a book on a horse race: he offers odds against the various horses winning the race, and gamblers accept bets at those odds when they find the odds attractive. The book at a particular time consists of the bookmaker's winnings according to the different outcomes of the race if the race were run at that time. We consider strategies the bookmaker might adopt when deciding how to alter his quoted odds as bets accumulate. The bookmaker is assumed to behave conservatively in the sense that he tries to minimise his expected maximum loss over all possible outcomes of the race.

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Zafiris, Nicos. "When is a multiple bet better than a single ?" Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 8, no. 2 (July 8, 2014): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v8i2.803.

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The paper addresses an apparent paradox observed in betting on football scores, drawing on 20-year data from the English 2nd tier division (Championship). While accumulator bets have a lower Net Expected Value than single bets, ‘cross double’ bets on the scores, placed over successive playing rounds, produce distinctly better results and indeed a positive return overall. It is argued that this effect rests on the essential stability of the score frequencies across playing seasons and on the bookmakers’ failure, in setting the odds, to allow for occasional and temporary deviations from long run average frequencies. A betting strategy based on overdue scores occurring with compensating frequencies, and possibly clustered together, can then produce positive returns. Neglect of overdue scores can be expressed formally as a bias augmenting the probability of these and turning the odds in the bettor’s favour. It is shown that, while normally the bettor’s disadvantage is compounded in multiple bets, a compounded advantage results once the odds become better than fair. The paper also discusses certain quasi binomial characteristics of the betting involved and explores possible ways of hedging such bets ‘in running’.

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Pasternack, Joel, and Stewart Venit. "Horse Racing Odds: Can You Beat the Track by Hedging Your Bets?" College Mathematics Journal 47, no. 4 (September 2016): 275–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.4169/college.math.j.47.4.275.

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Hood, Matthew, William Chittenden, and R. Todd Jewell. "Never Tell Me the Odds: The Stingy Odds for Leicester City to Win the English Premier League." Journal of Prediction Markets 12, no. 1 (November 1, 2018): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v12i1.1447.

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The crowning of Leicester City FC as English Premier League champions in 2016 is arguably the biggest upset in the history of professional sports. The pre-season odds posted for LCFC to win the EPL were 5,000:1, worse than finding Elvis alive. In our model, they win just once per 70,000 simulations; thus, bettors could expect a return of just 0.071 of the stake when betting on Leicester City. This is similar to the expected return of betting on all of the long-shots in our simulations; however, the expected value of bets on favorites averages 0.864. We find that the betting market is segmented for favorites and long-shots; while the market for favorites resembles a normal betting market, the market for long-shots is like a lottery.

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Metsola, Matti. "EVIDENCE ON THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS AS A SUPPLY-SIDE PHENOMENON." Journal of Prediction Markets 4, no. 1 (December 18, 2012): 59–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v4i1.473.

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The favorite-longshot bias has been referred to as the most longstanding empirical regularity in literature concerning decision-making under uncertainty, as well as a central theme of the literature on betting. However, it has defied authoritative explanation to date. Several attempts have been offered to explain the bias. They can be divided to two main categories: demand-oriented and supply-oriented explanations. This article argues in favour of supply-side explanations. The study is based on comparison of bookmaker odds to betting exchange odds in three betting markets. The data obtained illustrate that the disparity between bookmaker odds and betting exchange prices increases rapidly as the implied probability of the event decreases. This provides an explanation of the favorite-longshot bias which is consistent with earlier empirical research, showing declining expected returns on bets as odds increase. In addition, this explanation is consistent with the evidence concerning the volume of bets actually received by bookmakers.

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Rauch, Stefanie. "Good Bets, Bad Bets and Dark Horses: Allied Intelligence Officers’ Encounters with German Civilians, 1944–1945." Central European History 53, no. 1 (March 2020): 120–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008938919001006.

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AbstractThis article explores Allied intelligence officers’ encounters with and interrogations of German civilians from autumn 1944 onwards, psychological warfare operations directed at civilians, and their wider ramifications. Focusing especially on the officers serving with the Psychological Warfare Division (PWD), I will demonstrate that field intelligence officers’ stance towards German civilians was fluid and often ambiguous, with the encounter causing considerable distress to some of them. Their reports and correspondence further suggest that in this period, Germans readily professed knowledge of atrocities. But contrary to intelligence officers’ expectations, they failed to accept any guilt or responsibility. Finally, I will argue that the very foundations and techniques of Western Allied psychological warfare may have reinforced and legitimised justification strategies that separated between “real” Nazis and everyone else. This was at odds with one of the central aims of Military Government, i.e. to inculcate a sense of culpability in Germans.

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Henery, Robert J. "On the Average Probability of Losing Bets on Horses with Given Starting Price Odds." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 148, no. 4 (1985): 342. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2981894.

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Innocenti, Alessandro, Tommaso Nannicini, and Roberto Ricciuti. "The Importance of Betting Early." Risks 9, no. 4 (April 6, 2021): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9040067.

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We evaluate the impact of timing on decision outcomes when both the timing and the relevant decision are chosen under uncertainty. Sports betting provides the testing ground, as we exploit an original dataset containing more than one million online bets on games of the Italian Major Soccer League. We find that individuals perform systematically better when they place their bets farther away from the game day. The better performance of early bettors holds controlling for (time-invariant) unobservable ability, learning during the season, and timing of the odds. We attribute this result to the increase of noisy information on game day, which hampers the capacity of late (non-professional) bettors to use very simple prediction methods, such as team rankings or last game results. We also find that more successful bettors tend to bet in advance, focus on a smaller set of events, and prefer games associated with smaller betting odds.

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Koch, Alexander K., and Hui-Fai Shing. "Bookmaker and pari-mutuel Betting: is a (reverse) favourite-longshot Bias Built-in?" Journal of Prediction Markets 2, no. 2 (December 14, 2012): 29–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v2i2.440.

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A widely documented empirical regularity in gambling markets is that bets on high probability events (a race won by a “favourite”) have higher expected returns than bets on low probability events (a “longshot” wins). Such favourite-longshot (FL) biases however appear to be more severe and per-sistent in bookmaker markets than in pari-mutuel markets; the latter sometimes exhibit no bias or a reverse FL bias. Our results help understand these differences: the odds grid in bookmaker markets leads to a built-in FL bias, whereas that used in pari-mutuel betting pushes these markets toward a reverse FL bias. This paper benefited from helpful comments from an anonymous referee, Michael Mandler, David Metcalf, David Paton, Jonathan Wadsworth, Justin Wolfers, and par-ticipants of the conference on “The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications” in May 2007. We are grateful to Paul David-son, Tony Lusardi, Chris Ralph, and Leighton Vaughan Williams for information about bookmaker odds and bookmaker software.

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Llorente, Loreto. "BETTING MARKET: Rank Dependent Expected Utility." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 1, no. 2 (January 2, 2013): 147–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v1i2.515.

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In Pelota matches, games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, bets on the winner are made through a middleman who receives 16% of the finally paid amount. The classical decision theory of expected utility maximization can not explain this market assuming bettors are identical. Llorente and Aizpurua (2007) explain the existence of bets in the market under Quiggin’s rank dependent expected utility (RDEU) model. They find that bettors have to be optimistic in order to explain the existence of a bet. Analyzing the way odds are fixed in the market Llorente (2006) finds that assuming equal return on bets there are inefficiencies in the market. In this paper we show that, given an assumption that bettors are rank dependent expected utility maximizers, these inefficiencies tend to disappear.

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Ingrassia, Christopher Michael. "Revitalizing Keno: A Call for Pattern-Based Proposition Bets." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 13, no. 2 (December 11, 2020): 3–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v13i2.1806.

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Keno is a renowned game of chance offered by both lotteries and casinos throughout the world. The premise of the game is simple: a set of numbers is drawn at random and players are paid for selecting all or most of those numbers in advance. The mathematical foundation governing the odds and payouts for these basic wagers is elementary. More sophisticated bets, however, have associated probabilities which cannot be easily calculated by applying a manageable series of formulas. As a result, keno’s wagering menu has remained stagnant since the game’s widespread inception. Namely, proposition bets, now commonplace in virtually every other form of gaming, have never been developed for keno to any large degree. This is both unfortunate and surprising because keno is ideally suited for such an expansion. Unlike most other lottery-style games, keno highlights all drawn numbers on a rectangular grid, creating random visual patterns at the conclusion of each drawing. Creative new wagers based on these patterns are rigorously derived herein. These new additions should greatly enhance the game for both gamblers and enterprising gaming operators alike.

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Sacré, Pierre, Matthew S. D. Kerr, Sandya Subramanian, Zachary Fitzgerald, Kevin Kahn, Matthew A. Johnson, Ernst Niebur, et al. "Risk-taking bias in human decision-making is encoded via a right–left brain push–pull system." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116, no. 4 (January 7, 2019): 1404–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1811259115.

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A person’s decisions vary even when options stay the same, like when a gambler changes bets despite constant odds of winning. Internal bias (e.g., emotion) contributes to this variability and is shaped by past outcomes, yet its neurobiology during decision-making is not well understood. To map neural circuits encoding bias, we administered a gambling task to 10 participants implanted with intracerebral depth electrodes in cortical and subcortical structures. We predicted the variability in betting behavior within and across patients by individual bias, which is estimated through a dynamical model of choice. Our analysis further revealed that high-frequency activity increased in the right hemisphere when participants were biased toward risky bets, while it increased in the left hemisphere when participants were biased away from risky bets. Our findings provide electrophysiological evidence that risk-taking bias is a lateralized push–pull neural system governing counterintuitive and highly variable decision-making in humans.

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Johnson, Johnnie E. V., and Alistair C. Bruce. "Gluck's Second Law: An Empirical Investigation of Horserace Betting in Early and Late Races." Psychological Reports 72, no. 3_suppl (June 1993): 1251–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1993.72.3c.1251.

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The central premise of ‘Gluck's Second Law,’ which states that ‘The Best Time to Bet the Favourite is in the Last Race,’ is tested. Analysis of a random sample of 1212 bets placed in offcourse betting offices throughout the UK shows that bettors on later races back horses with shorter odds; commit, to some extent, higher stakes and perform at least as well as bettors on early races. The premise underlying ‘Gluck's Second Law’ that bettors back long-shots in later races is questioned in relation to the UK offcourse betting market. Suggestions are offered for these results and avenues for further research are identified.

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Ötting, Marius, Roland Langrock, and Christian Deutscher. "Integrating multiple data sources in match-fixing warning systems." Statistical Modelling 18, no. 5-6 (November 18, 2018): 483–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1471082x18804933.

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Recent years have seen several match-fixing scandals in soccer. In order to avoid match-fixing, existing literature and fraud detection systems primarily focus on analysing betting odds provided by bookmakers. In our work, we suggest to not only analyse odds but also total volume placed on bets, thereby making use of more of the information available. As a case study for our method, we consider the second division in Italian soccer, Serie B, since for this league it has effectively been proven that some matches were fixed, such that to some extent we can ground truth our approach. For the betting volume data, we use a flexible generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS), with log-normal response, to account for the various complex patterns present in the data. For the betting odds, we use a GAMLSS with bivariate Poisson response to model the number of goals scored by both teams, and to subsequently derive the corresponding odds. We then conduct outlier detection in order to flag suspicious matches. Our results indicate that monitoring both betting volumes and betting odds can lead to more reliable detection of suspicious matches.

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Affleck-Graves, J. F., A. H. Money, and K. Miedema. "The horse racing industry and the efficient markets hypothesis." South African Journal of Business Management 18, no. 1 (March 31, 1987): 35–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajbm.v18i1.995.

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Betting on the racetrack and investing in the stockmarket have many characteristics in common. These similarities are discussed in this paper and the applicability of efficient markets theory to the market for horse racing bets in South Africa is examined. Both the weak form and the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis are empirically tested. The results indicate support for both forms although some small deviations from the theory do exist. Most notable of these is that on average long-odds horses win less frequently than suggested by their quoted odds whilst short-odds horses win more frequently than implied by their odds. However, these weak form deviations are not sufficient to enable consistent profits to be made. The performances of ten experts with potential access to inside information are examined and the results indicate that on average they are not able to earn superior investment returns. In fact, all ten had negative returns over the period examined and only three of them did better than the naive strategy of backing the favourite.

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Chatterjee, Shoutir Kishore, and gaurangadeb Chattopadhyay. "Detailed Statistical Inference-multiple Decision Problem." Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin 43, no. 3-4 (September 1993): 155–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0008068319930302.

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The procedure for detailed statistical inference developed by the authors in an earlier paper (1992) for the two-decision case, is extended here to the case of several decisions. Alongwith the rule for choosing the decision, the problem of stating data dependent measures of confidence in terms of betting odds, is considered. The extension involves generalization oftlie coneept of legitimacy of betting odds introduced in the earlier paper and the choice of a suitable utility function for bets. The actual solution is worked out in the case of logarithmic utility. A rather intricate mathematical result requires to be established to prove the existence of an optimum rule in this case. Application of the procedure is illustrated through some numerical examples.

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Tutiya, Yohei, and Kazutaka Kurihara. "Parimutuel system of the Japanese race track: Voting and ranking process." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 9, no. 2 (October 6, 2015): 27–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v9i2.986.

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We investigated a time series of betting rates in a pari-mutuel betting system of Japanese horse races. Principal component analyses and cluster analyses suggest that the level of expectation for the favorite is the most important factor when classifying races. The dataset of the odds determined before the races used in this study is exceedingly large and detailed compared to previous studies. We also conducted detailed research on whether bets placed on the favorites tend to be concentrated just before the race.

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Schnytzer, Adi, and Avichai Snir. "SP Betting as a Self-Enforcing Implicit Cartel." Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 2, no. 1 (January 2, 2013): 45–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v2i1.524.

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A large share of the UK off-course horse racing betting market involves winning payouts determined at Starting Prices (SP). This implies that gamblers can bet with off-course bookies on any horse before a race at the final pre-race odds as set by on-course bookies for that horse.Given the oligopolistic structure of the off-course gambling market in the UK, a market that is dominated by a small number of large bookmaking firms, we study the phenomenon of SP as a type of self-enforcing implicit collusion. We show that given the uncertainty about a race outcome, and their ability to influence the prices set by on-course bookies, agreeing to lay bets at SP is superior for off-course bookies as compared with offering fixed odds. We thus extend the results of Rotemberg and Saloner (1990) to markets with uncertainty about both demand and outcomes,We test our model by studying the predicted effects of SP betting on the behavior of on-course bookies. Using data drawn from both the UK and Australian on-course betting markets, we show that the differences between these markets are consistent with the predicted effects of SP betting in the UK off-course market and its absence from the Australian market.

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O'Connor, Philip, and Feng Zhou. "THE TRADESPORTS NFL PREDICTION MARKET: AN ANALYSIS OF MARKET EFFICIENCY, TRANSACTION COSTS, AND BETTOR PREFERENCES." Journal of Prediction Markets 2, no. 1 (December 14, 2012): 45–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v2i1.435.

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We investigated 1,587 Tradesports point spread contracts for NFL games during the 2005/06 season. Differing point spreads create differing odds, meaning we could test for the traditional favorite long shot bias in NFL betting. We found that there was no favorite long shot bias. However, the market underestimated the chances of the favored team winning by about 10% across all odds categories, and this bias persisted throughout the season. We found relatively low transaction costs. For a price-taker, the Tradesports “Vegas-line” point spread had a 2.2% total takeout including exchange fees, about half of the 4.55% takeout of traditional legal bookmakers. Contracts with a price around 50, creating even money returns to bets on both teams, and higher volume contracts, had lower transaction costs. Participants were found to prefer the Las Vegas line point spread contract followed by the straight-up contract. Trading volume during the game (in-running) was about twice the trading volume leading up to the game. Teams with better season records and from cities with larger populations generated a higher volume of trades. Sunday night and Monday night games generated about four times more volume than regular Sunday games.Helpful comments were provided by Adi Schnytzer and participants of the 2007 University of California-Riverside Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Conference, and an excellent anonymous referee. We thank Jared Hunt for computer assistance.

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Zou, Qingrong, Kai Song, and Jian Shi. "A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes." Applied Sciences 10, no. 8 (April 22, 2020): 2904. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10082904.

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Point process models have made a significant contribution to the prediction of football association outcomes. It is conventionally the case that defence and attack capabilities have been assumed to be constant during a match and estimated against the average performance of all other teams in history. Drawing upon a Bayesian method, this paper proposes a dynamic strength model which relaxes assumption of the constant teams’ strengths and permits applying in-match performance information to calibrate them. An empirical study demonstrates that although the Bayesian model fails to achieve improvement in goal difference prediction, it registers clear achievements with regard to the prediction of the total number of goals and Win/Draw/Loss outcome prediction. When the Bayesian model bets against the SBOBet bookmaker, one of the most popular gaming companies among Asian handicaps fans, whose odds data were obtained from both the Win/Draw/Loss market and over–under market, it may obtain positive returns; this clearly contrasts with the process model with constant strengths, which fails to win money from the bookmaker.

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Fragaszy, Dorothy Munkenbeck. "Odds favor the bees." Journal of Comparative Psychology 134, no. 3 (August 2020): 263–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/com0000249.

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Zafiris, Nicos. "Is there such a thing as a safe bet ?" Journal of Gambling Business and Economics 10, no. 1 (August 9, 2016): 40–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jgbe.v10i1.1159.

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This paper is an attempt to set out a betting strategy appropriate to events with several possible final outcomes which are a) unambiguously defined and b) likely to show fluctuations in the respective probabilities as the event unfolds. It is then shown that, by placing bets of appropriate magnitude and at appropriate times, such as to take advantage of changing odds, it is possible to secure a certain profit, generally in advance of the outcome becoming known, and irrespective of which of the possible outcomes finally materialises. Furthermore, the bettor should enjoy the reassurance of an improving Net Expected Value (NEV), as the event progresses.The procedure, which may be viewed as a multiple hedging one, is suited to in running betting on individual match events, as well as on protracted seasonal events (such as a league championship in football or other sport). The principal requirement is that there be a reasonable expectation of a large amount of alternation in the relative prospects of at least two contenders. The procedure is outlined in general terms and illustrated with reference to real life football matches and league competitions from the 2015/6 season. It is seen to be profitable under the specified conditions. Apparent advantages in betting on draws and on favourites are discussed.

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Kummerfeld, Erich. "A simple interpretation of undirected edges in essential graphs is wrong." PLOS ONE 16, no. 4 (April 8, 2021): e0249415. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249415.

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Artificial intelligence for causal discovery frequently uses Markov equivalence classes of directed acyclic graphs, graphically represented as essential graphs, as a way of representing uncertainty in causal directionality. There has been confusion regarding how to interpret undirected edges in essential graphs, however. In particular, experts and non-experts both have difficulty quantifying the likelihood of uncertain causal arrows being pointed in one direction or another. A simple interpretation of undirected edges treats them as having equal odds of being oriented in either direction, but I show in this paper that any agent interpreting undirected edges in this simple way can be Dutch booked. In other words, I can construct a set of bets that appears rational for the users of the simple interpretation to accept, but for which in all possible outcomes they lose money. I put forward another interpretation, prove this interpretation leads to a bet-taking strategy that is sufficient to avoid all Dutch books of this kind, and conjecture that this strategy is also necessary for avoiding such Dutch books. Finally, I demonstrate that undirected edges that are more likely to be oriented in one direction than the other are common in graphs with 4 nodes and 3 edges.

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Roberts, Lesley, Deborah McCahon, Oliver Johnson, M. Sayeed Haque, James Parle, and FD Richard Hobbs. "Stability of thyroid function in older adults: the Birmingham Elderly Thyroid Study." British Journal of General Practice 68, no. 675 (August 28, 2018): e718-e726. http://dx.doi.org/10.3399/bjgp18x698861.

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BackgroundThyroid function tests (TFTs) are among the most requested tests internationally. However, testing practice is inconsistent, and potentially suboptimal and overly costly. The natural history of thyroid function remains poorly understood.AimTo establish the stability of thyroid function over time, and identify predictors of development of overt thyroid dysfunction.Design and settingLongitudinal follow-up in 19 general practices in the UK.MethodA total of 2936 participants from the Birmingham Elderly Thyroid Study (BETS 1) with a baseline TFT result indicating euthyroid or subclinical state were re-tested after approximately 5 years. Change in thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), and thyroid status between baseline and follow-up was determined. Predictors of progression to overt dysfunction were modelled.ResultsParticipants contributed 12 919 person-years; 17 cases of overt thyroid dysfunction were identified, 13 having been classified at baseline as euthyroid and four as having subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Individuals with subclinical results at baseline were 10- and 16-fold more likely to develop overt hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, respectively, compared with euthyroid individuals. TSH and FT4 demonstrated significant stability over time, with 61% of participants having a repeat TSH concentration within 0.5 mIU/L of their original result. Predictors of overt hypothyroidism included new treatment with amiodarone (odds ratio [OR] 92.1), a new diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (OR 7.4), or renal disease (OR 4.8).ConclusionHigh stability of thyroid function demonstrated over the 5-year interval period should discourage repeat testing, especially when a euthyroid result is in the recent clinical record. Reduced repeat TFTs in older individuals is possible without conferring risk, and could result in significant cost savings.

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Milius, Susan. "First Gene-Altered Primate Beats the Odds." Science News 159, no. 3 (January 20, 2001): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3981581.

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Levy, George. "Quantum Game Beats Classical Odds—Thermodynamics Implications." Entropy 17, no. 12 (November 9, 2015): 7645–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e17117645.

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Norton, Edward C., Bryan E. Dowd, and Matthew L. Maciejewski. "Odds Ratios—Current Best Practice and Use." JAMA 320, no. 1 (July 3, 2018): 84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2018.6971.

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Baleta, Adele. "Rural hospital beats the odds in South Africa." Lancet 374, no. 9692 (September 2009): 771–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(09)61577-4.

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Bakbergenuly, Ilyas, and Elena Kulinskaya. "Beta-binomial model for meta-analysis of odds ratios." Statistics in Medicine 36, no. 11 (January 25, 2017): 1715–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.7233.

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Nickel, Felix, and Philipp Anthony Wise. "Acute pancreatitis and multiple organ failure—Who beats the odds?" United European Gastroenterology Journal 9, no. 2 (March 2021): 137–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ueg2.12056.

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Laing, Catherine M., and James A. Rankin. "Odds Ratios and Confidence Intervals." Journal of Pediatric Oncology Nursing 28, no. 6 (November 2011): 363–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1043454211426575.

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Professional registered nurses (RNs) are active participants in seeking and interpreting research evidence. To facilitate knowledge transfer for RNs at the bedside, it behooves researchers to present their findings in a format that facilitates understanding. There is also an expectation that clinicians are capable of interpreting results in a meaningful way. It is important to be able to understand and interpret research reports where statistical methods are used as part of providing the safest and best care for patients. The purpose of this article is to describe the basic concepts of odds ratios and confidence intervals used in research. These statistical measures are used frequently in quantitative research and are often the principle measure of association that is reported. The more comfortable pediatric oncology clinicians are with the interpretation of odds ratios and confidence intervals, the better equipped they will be to bring relevant research results from the “bench” to the bedside.

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ul Haque, Irfan. "Theory at Odds with Best Practice: The Travails of Industrial Policy." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 20, Sspecial Edition (September 1, 2015): 87–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2015.v20.isp.a5.

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The problems that afflict Pakistan’s manufacturing sector are widely known. It is also recognized that the current state of affairs must change, but there is little agreement as to what that might entail. The lack of consensus on required actions and policies can be traced back to the end of the era of rapid industrialization in the late 1960s and subsequent withering away of the “developmental state” as Pakistan could then be characterized. The industry’s woes tend to be attributed to import substitution and high protection, with the policy implication that the country must further open up and liberalize. The paper questions this proposition and argues for a fresh approach to industrial policy, exploring what this might involve.

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PAULSEN, W. "Best Odds for Finding a Perfect Matching in a Bipartite Graph." Combinatorics, Probability and Computing 15, no. 05 (July 31, 2006): 753. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0963548306007577.

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Anfara, Vincent A., Sheila Rosenblum, and Robert J. Mahar. "A Middle School Endorsement Beats the Odds to Aid Urban Schools." Middle School Journal 33, no. 5 (May 2002): 5–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00940771.2002.11495326.

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Cosic, Sanja. "Book Review: Best Possible Odds: Contemporary Treatment Strategies for Gambling Disorders." Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry 35, no. 3 (June 2001): 416–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1440-1614.2001.0896l.x.

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Cohen, J. "NEWS FOCUS SPECIAL REPORT: Thailand Beats the Odds in Completing Vaccine Test." Science 301, no. 5640 (September 19, 2003): 1663. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.301.5640.1663.

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Asaeda, Glenn, Gary Smiley, and Jose Cruz. "Miracle on 66 Street: Patient falls 47 stories and beats impossible odds." JEMS: Journal of Emergency Medical Services 33, no. 7 (July 2008): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0197-2510(08)70251-1.

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Mazumdar, Soumya, Shanley Chong, Thomas Astell-Burt, Xiaoqi Feng, Geoffrey Morgan, and Bin Jalaludin. "Which Green Space Metric Best Predicts a Lowered Odds of Type 2 Diabetes?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 8 (April 13, 2021): 4088. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18084088.

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The choice of a green space metric may affect what relationship is found with health outcomes. In this research, we investigated the relationship between percent green space area, a novel metric developed by us (based on the average contiguous green space area a spatial buffer has contact with), in three different types of buffers and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We obtained information about diagnosed T2D and relevant covariates at the individual level from the large and representative 45 and Up Study. Average contiguous green space and the percentage of green space within 500 m, 1 km, and 2 km of circular buffer, line-based road network (LBRN) buffers, and polygon-based road network (PBRN) buffers around participants’ residences were used as proxies for geographic access to green space. Generalized estimating equation regression models were used to determine associations between access to green space and T2D status of individuals. It was found that 30%–40% green space within 500 m LBRN or PBRN buffers, and 2 km PBRN buffers, but not within circular buffers, significantly reduced the risk of T2D. The novel average green space area metric did not appear to be particularly effective at measuring reductions in T2D. This study complements an existing research body on optimal buffers for green space measurement.

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LeClerc, Jared, and Susan Joslyn. "Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events." Weather, Climate, and Society 4, no. 4 (October 1, 2012): 263–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-12-00013.1.

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Abstract What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors’ knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the manager of a road maintenance company and used forecast information to decide whether to take precautionary action to prevent icy conditions on a town’s roads. Participants with forecasts expressed as odds ratios were more likely to take appropriate precautionary action on a single target trial with an extreme low temperature forecast than participants using deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. However, participants using probabilistic forecasts performed better on trials involving weather within the normal range than participants with only deterministic forecast information. These results may provide insight into how best to communicate extreme weather risk. This paper offers clear evidence that people given relative risk information are more inclined to take precautionary action when threatened with an extreme weather event with a low probability than people given only single-value or probabilistic forecasts.

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Edavettal, Mathew, Brian W. Gross, Katelyn Rittenhouse, James Alzate, Amelia Rogers, Lisa Estrella, Jo Ann Miller, and Frederick B. Rogers. "An Analysis of Beta-Blocker Administration Pre-and Post-Traumatic Brain Injury with Subanalyses for Head Injury Severity and Myocardial Injury." American Surgeon 82, no. 12 (December 2016): 1203–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/000313481608201227.

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A growing body of literature indicates that beta-blocker administration after traumatic brain injury (TBI) is cerebroprotective, limiting secondary injury; however, the effects of preinjury beta blocker status remain poorly understood. We sought to characterize the effects of pre- and post-injury beta-blocker administration on mortality with subanalyses accounting for head injury severity and myocardial injury. In a Level II trauma center, all admissions of patients ≥18 years with a head Abbreviated Injury Scale Score ≥2, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤13 from May 2011 to May 2013 were queried. Demographic, injury-specific, and outcome variables were analyzed using univariate analyses. Subsequent multivariate analyses were conducted to determine adjusted odds of mortality for beta-blocker usage controlling for age, Injury Severity Score, head Abbreviated Injury Scale, arrival Glasgow Coma Scale, ventilator use, and intensive care unit stay. A total of 214 trauma admissions met inclusion criteria: 112 patients had neither pre- nor postinjury beta-blocker usage, 46 patients had preinjury beta-blocker usage, and 94 patients had postinjury beta-blocker usage. Both unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios of preinjury beta-blocker were insignificant with respect to mortality. However, postinjury in-hospital administration of beta blockers was found to significantly in the decrease of mortality in both univariate ( P = 0.002) and multivariate analyses ( P = 0.001). Our data indicate that beta-blocker administration post-TBI in hospital reduces odds of mortality; however, preinjury beta-blocker usage does not. Additionally, myocardial injury is a useful indicator for beta-blocker administration post-TBI. Further research into which beta blockers confer the best benefits as well as the optimal period of beta-blocker administration post-TBI is recommended.

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Ganz, M. "CO2 METHODS FOR INTERPRETING AND DISPLAYING RESULTS: FROM REGRESSION MODELS: BEYOND BETAS AND ODDS RATIOS." Value in Health 12, no. 3 (May 2009): A6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1098-3015(10)73092-8.

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Kumar, Y. Shravan, R. Gowthami, Sujitha H, Nagaraju T, Rajashekar M, Murali Krishna Kumar, and Y. Madhusudhan Rao. "Formulation and Evaluation of Sumatriptan Succinate Fast Disintegrating Films and Tablets." International Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Nanotechnology 6, no. 2 (August 31, 2013): 2087–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.37285/ijpsn.2013.6.2.11.

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Sumatriptan succinate is a 5-HT1B/1D receptor agonist which has well established efficacy in treating migraine. The main objective of the study was to formulate Oral Fast Disintegrating Films (ODF) and Oral Fast Disintegrating Tablets (ODT) to achieve a better dissolution rate and further improving the bioavailability of the drug. ODFs were prepared by solvent casting method using film forming polymers like HPMC – E15,5cps,50cps in different ratios & prepared batches of films were evaluated for the drug content, film thickness, disintegration time and in vitro dissolution studies. Among the prepared formulation F7 containing HPMC – 50cps (drug: polymer ratios = 1:1) was found to be best formulations which releases 98.2±1.1of the drug within 17±0.02 sec. ODTs prepared by direct compression method using in different concentrations of super-disintegrants. The prepared formulation T12 (combination of disintegrants) containing CP + CCS (6%) was considered to be the best formulation, which releases up to 100±0.38% of the drug in 23±0.75 sec, respectively. Based on these results, it is suggested that ODFs have faster disintegration time and drug release than ODTs.

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Bachtiar, Deva, and Agus Dwi Susanto. "Organic Dust Toxic Syndrome (ODTS)." Jurnal Respirasi 2, no. 1 (April 2, 2019): 24. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jr.v2-i.1.2016.24-28.

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Organic dust toxic syndrome (ODTS) was manifestation of some acute symptoms, (same with acute hypersensitivity pneumonitis or extrinsic allergic alveolitis) with initially by flu like syndrome that were fever, malaise, myalgia, dry cough, dyspnea, and headache after exposure of organic dust in several hours. Etiology of ODTS usually from agricultural environment like hay, grain, straw, moldy, pollen, mycotoxins, bacteria and endotoxin. Organic dust toxic syndrome (ODTS) spontaneous recovery without sequele if patients avoid organic dust exposure immediately and avoid recurrent exposure. The best treatment were supportive therapy and preventive therapy from that etiology.Key words: ODTS, pneumonitis hipersensitif

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Kandl, John. "Keats's Odes and Contemporary Criticism. James O'Rourke.Keats's Paradise Lost. Beth Lau." Wordsworth Circle 29, no. 4 (September 1998): 229–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/twc24044087.

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Harrison, S. J. "Horace, Odes 3.7: An Erotic Odyssey?" Classical Quarterly 38, no. 1 (January 1988): 186–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0009838800031396.

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Horace's Asterie ode (3.7) has been somewhat neglected by critics. Fraenkel, uninterested in the erotic odes, fails to mention it, and others see it as merely counterbalancing the preceding six Roman Odes by its frivolity and light irony. However, it is one of Horace's most subtle and best-organized erotic odes, matching the more obvious conventions of Latin love-elegy with a romanticized Odyssey as an underlying framework.

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Hamzan, Muhammad Izzuddin, Mohamad J. Jeffrey, Ahmad S. Halim, and Arman Z. Mat Saad. "Against all odds: traumatic thumb amputation following ring avulsion injury." Pediatric Traumatology, Orthopaedics and Reconstructive Surgery 8, no. 1 (April 6, 2020): 95–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/ptors17926.

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Background. Replantation of an avulsed digit often poses a surgical challenge even to an experienced microsurgeon. Therefore, it is often difficult to choose the treatment path for traumatic amputation of digit following ring avulsion injury, be it completion amputation or replantation. We discuss the surgical challenges encountered and management strategies used in this case of an unfortunate child who sustained an amputation of his dominant thumb. Clinical case. We present the case of a 10-year-old boy who sustained a complete amputation of his right thumb following a ring avulsion injury which was reconstructed with multiple approaches and surgical techniques to address difficulties at different stages. We replanted the avulsed thumb, reconstructed the tendon, soft tissue coverage with the use of allograft skin and local flap, and improvised surgical tactic to overcome complications encountered intra- and post-operative states such as thrombosis of arterial anastomosis and venous congestion. Discussion. There is scarce literature on the management of ring avulsion injury of the thumb and to the authors best knowledge, there was only one reported case in children. In the case described here, we report a good outcome with complex reconstructive surgery despite all odds in an attempt to salvage the thumb, especially in a pediatric population. Post-surgical reconstruction, the boy achieved a successful and acceptable outcome in terms of function and aesthetic appearance. Conclusion. The journey through replantation of an amputated digit following avulsion injury poses various challenges both to the microsurgeon and patient. The decision of surgical tactics must be tailored and thoroughly reason based on the knowledge, experience, and good microsurgical skill. A good surgical outcome can be achieved even in a complex injury in the pediatric population with careful planning and the right intervention in each complication peri-operative.

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Medina, Justin C., and Haley R. Zettler. "Multisubstance-Using Probationers and the Odds of Arrest While in the Community." International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology 64, no. 8 (December 26, 2019): 818–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624x19895975.

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Failed drug tests commonly lead to technical violations and revocation hearings for probationers. The current study extends these observations by examining whether multisubstance-using probationers also have increased odds of arrest in the community. This is important as multisubstance-using probationers may present unique public safety challenges to community corrections agencies and require intensive treatment resources and additional monitoring. Using data from a county-level probation cohort ( N = 2,257) from 2009 to 2010, a series of logistic regression analyses estimated the effects of multisubstance use on the odds of being arrested for a new offense while in the community. The findings revealed that multisubstance use and the frequency of multisubstance use increased the odds of arrest while on probation when compared with single-substance users. We discuss how agencies may best supervise multisubstance-using probationers and suggest directions for further examination.

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Wager, Travis T., Bethany L. Kormos, Joseph T. Brady, Yvonne Will, Michael D. Aleo, Donald B. Stedman, Max Kuhn, and Ramalakshmi Y. Chandrasekaran. "Improving the Odds of Success in Drug Discovery: Choosing the Best Compounds for in Vivo Toxicology Studies." Journal of Medicinal Chemistry 56, no. 23 (November 22, 2013): 9771–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/jm401485p.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Odds bets'

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