Academic literature on the topic 'Oil energy sector'

Almost all crude oil used in Poland is imported. The domestic production meets less than 4% of needs; therefore, to ensure the security of supplies, Poland relies heavily on imports. It is worth mentioning, however, that Poland has crude oil resources oil fields are located in the Carpathians, Polish Lowlands, and in the economic zone of the Baltic Sea. For years, crude oil is imported mainly from the East, however, a significant change in this approach, leading to an increase in seaborne oil supplies, has been observed in recent years. In 2017, 77.3% of crude oil was imported from Russia, while the rest was supplied from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Norway, and Kazakhstan. Increasing the diversification of supplies is, of course, a very positive phenomenon, because it allows reducing the dependence on one supplier, which is beneficial from the point of view of energy security. Taking into account a high dependence on oil imports, the article also discusses important factors affecting the global oil market: low investment in the upstream sector, a drastic decline in oil production in Venezuela, the impact of the U.S. embargo on Iran, or depleting oil reserves.

This study has investigated the relationship between the changes in oil and natural gas prices on the Malaysian economic sectors. Four economic sectors were selected namely manufacturing, services, agriculture, and mining. However, there was less study conducted at the sector level. Hence, the goal of this paper is to explore the impact of oil and gas prices on economic sectors GDP. This study has conducted econometrics modelling based on the ARDL bound testing with the spanning time series data from year 1987 to 2017. The empirical findings revealed that the relationship between the oil and natural gas prices in the manufacturing and services sector is negative, while the agriculture sector showed a positive relationship, and the mining sector showed no relationship. The empirical findings concluded that the manufacturing and services sectors that consumed more energy are dependent on the price changes. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector is a highly subsidised sector which has a positive relationship with energy prices. In the policy recommendation, Malaysia has to apply the energy pricing policy by offering energy subsidy to the high energy consumed sectors. Finally, Malaysia should develop policies that can diversify its energy resources and increase the shares of renewable energy sources.

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) by sector and energy consumption by type in 16 emerging countries. Design/methodology/approach – The panel model was utilized taking the period 1980-2010. Findings – The results revealed that GDP by sector and energy consumption by type are cointegrated. Moreover, the Granger causality concluded a bi-directional causal relationship between oil, natural gas and renewable energy consumption and the value of the manufacturing, industrial and services sector. Furthermore, a bi-directional causal relationship was also found between coal consumption and the value of the services sector. Furthermore, a one-way causal relationship was found from oil consumption to the value of the agriculture sector, the value of the agriculture sector to coal consumption, and coal consumption to the value of the manufacturing and the industrial sectors. Practical implications – This study recommended that these countries should increase their renewable energy consumption to achieve their GDP growth. Originality/value – This study is different from the previous studies, as it disaggregated the GDP into four sectors, namely, agriculture, manufacturing, industrial and the services sector. In addition, this study will disaggregate energy consumption into oil consumption, gas consumption, coal consumption and electricity consumption.

With the shift of the world growth gravity from the industrialized countries to the emerging economies, the China-Latin American relationship has greater political and economic implications in the current international power transition. The energy ties between China and Latin America have been significantly strengthened in the oil sector and the China-Venezuela oil cooperation model is a unique example that might explain the dynamics of China’s energy interaction with Latin American resource countries. This oil cooperation model is a plural collaboration pattern with the oil sector as the cooperation axis and is extended to the infrastructure, high-tech, agriculture and other sectors under the intergovernmental institutionalized cooperative framework, which is supported by Chinese financial credit. China and Venezuela have high complementarities of energy interest in terms of the oil trade, finance and infrastructure building, based on the two countries’ relative economic advantages.

Many sectors rely on energy as input to produce output. Even though the use of energy in agriculture sector is not as high as in other sectors, it is important to study the connectedness between the two sectors as there is no study done so far to show the linkages between them in Malaysia. Input-output analysis has been used to study the connectedness degree between the two sectors using input-output data for 1991-2000. The direct and total backward linkages analyses have shown that there is a significant increase in the use of energy in agriculture sector for the 1991-2000 period but the connectedness is still weak. Among the three energy-related sectors namely; crude oil, natural gas & coal, petrol & coal industries and electricity & gas, it was found that the agriculture sector depends more on inputs from petrol & coal industries as compared to the other two sectors. Based on these results, some policy implications have been proposed to help the decision-makers in economic planning especially on implementing policies related to energy and agriculture sectors.

Senegal's energy consumption is dominated by oil products and biomass. The electricity sub-sector, which accounts for only 10.4% of total energy consumption, far behind biomass 41.6% and oil products 39.2%, is remains dominated by thermal units. The objective of this study is to do an analysis of the electricity sub-sector. It shows a dependence on imports of oil and gas to meet our demand. Important policies have been developed to think about energy independence by exploiting our renewable energies potential, 5kWh / m² / day for solar, average wind speed estimated at 4m / s for wind. The liberalization of the energy market has allowed public and private investors to invest in this sector. The installed capacity has enabled Senegal to avoid the emission of 156.243 tons of CO2 per year with the six solar photovoltaic plants. Despite immense potential of renewable energies, their rate remain low in the power park and is estimated for (solar photovoltaic, wind and hydraulic) at 28 % in 2020.

This research is conducted to discuss about the Cooperation between Indonesia and Iran in oil and gas energy sector period 2015-2017. This research uses qualitative research method with descriptive approach type. The purpose on this research is to explain the shape of cooperation between Indonesia and Iran in oil and gas energy sector. This research also uses bilateral cooperation theory, national interest theory, and energy security concept. From this research, According to the result from this research, the cooperation between Indonesian and Iran in oil and gas energy sector in the period of 2015-2017, the first is Purchasing of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Crude Oil form Iran with Competitive Price, second, Oil Refinery Development located in Situbondo (East Java) and the last is Management of Ab-Teymour and Mansouri field. With this cooperation, Indonesia has achieve national interest because the production of oil and gas in Indonesia is increased and the people requirement of oil and gas can be fulfilled. Then in this research, it is also known that the cooperation between Indonesia and Iran in the energy sector will continue even in the wider sector again.

The article describes the economic (entrepreneurial) relations in the oil industry. The features of such relations are revealed. The definition of the oil industry as an industry is proposed. Taking into account the specifics of economic relations in the oil industry, it is proposed to distinguish a group of relations in the field of search, evaluation, development of oil fields, as well as relations in the field of sales of oil and petroleum products. It is advisable to regulate the selected groups of relations in different laws, taking into account the specifics.

The country's energy security is an important component of the national security of any state. In countries where the oil sector is the development determinant of the national economy, the functioning of all other sectors and the satisfaction of the population needs in energy resources depends on the efficiency of the industry operation. Therefore, it is relevant to study the prerequisites for the development of the oil-producing industry of Ukraine in the context of the formation of perspective ways of its development and modernization. The article analyzes the Ukraine’s' oil-producing potential, its current state and directions of development. At the same time, the author emphasizes that the availability of sufficient oil reserves in Ukraine creates preconditions for ensuring energy independence in the near future. In the paper, the author emphasizes that the current challenges in the oil sector for Ukraine are: the balance of exports and imports, increasing of own oil production, reduction of monopolization and creation of competitive, transparent energy markets. An analysis of the oil and gas industry functioning and the domestic market of oil and petroleum products made it possible to distinguish the relevant trends of its development. At the same time, it was concluded that the oil refining sector of the oil complex is one of the low efficient branches in the industry. The paper identifies the main negative trends in the development of the oil industry in Ukraine: the lack of a comprehensive state program for the industry development, a lack of investment in exploration, unsystematic and slow reform of the oil sector, unsustainable rental and tax rules, and the unresolved issues connected with environment protection, which lead to regression of the domestic oil-producing complex. In order to develop the oil industry in Ukraine and increase the efficiency of its functioning, the author has formed the directions of state regulation that will stimulate the development of the oil-extracting industry in Ukraine. Key words: oil-extracting complex, oil production, energy security, efficiency, state regulation.

This thesis is concerned with the application of the real options methodology to value oiVnatural gas pipeline networks. A simple real option model for the valuation of an oil storage facility is presented initially to demonstrate the concept of physical energy asset valuation with respect to market price movements. The investment strategy underpinning:1he model relies on forward dynamic optimisation. We consider a single-period optimisation problem of an oiVnatural gas pipeline network. In this problem, the network is represented by a graph with vertices and arcs denoting various markets and pipelines, respectively. Each market has delivery and supply constraints and there are also pipeline capacity constraints. The objective is to maximise profit subject to satisfying all constraints by flowing oiVgas through the network. Two formulations, one path-based and the other arc-based, transforming the problem into a linear programming problem are described. The performance of the algorithm d~veloped for each formulation is evaluated. A real option model for an oil/natural gas pipeline network is presented. The model uses the arc formulation and Monte Carlo simulation. Its algorithmic implementation is tested. We extend the single-period optimisation problem by introducing multiple time periods and an oil/gas storage facility. An arc-based formulation leading to a -new linear programming problem is presented. We test the implementation algorithm constructed. A description of how to use the arc-based formulation and Monte Carlo simulation to develop a real option model for an oiVnatural gas pipeline network with storage is also provided. A real option model for an oil/natural gas pipeline network with storage is developed. The model is a stochastic dynamic programming approach and takes into account optionality that may be exercised throughout the lifetime of the network. The constructed algorithm's performance is investigated.

La transizione del settore energetico unita alla volatilità dei mercati, costringe le società dell'industria Oil&Gas ad un continuo adattamento delle strutture e delle strategie per competere. Da un lato le grandi Company dell'industria Upstream costrette a fronteggiare la caduta del prezzo del petrolio con maggior riguardo a costi e efficienza, dall'altro gli EPC Contractor che forniscono la gestione dell'intero ciclo di realizzazione di grandi impianti industriali secondo contratti Turn Key, costretti ad assumersi sempre più rischi con conseguente riduzione dei margini di profitto. In questo contesto, ha assunto sempre più importanza la fase di Tendering, ovvero l'attività per aggiudicarsi tali contratti, che inoltre fornisce gli strumenti idonei per impostare la strategia e gestire il Contratto, nella successiva fase esecutiva gestita dal Project Management. L'intento della tesi è quello di studiare come in Rosetti Marino, un Contractor altamente strutturato ed esperto, si sia sviluppato il Tender Management per sopperire a tali necessità, concentrandosi sulla preparazione dell'offerta tecnica, attraverso l'analisi di procedure, linee guida e strumenti tipici del Project Management (e.g.Planning/Scheduling, Risk Management, Engineering Endorsement, Procurement Strategy, etc.), che l'Azienda ha sviluppato nel corso degli anni, attraverso un “closed-loop system”. L'obiettivo è quello di applicare tali strumenti ad un caso reale di Revamping di una piattaforma di produzione offshore, attraverso il coinvolgimento di Dipartimenti/Funzioni della fase operativa, concentrandosi sulle attività di Engineering, Procurement, Planning e Risk Management che forniscono gli strumenti preliminari (FEED endorsement, Procurement Plan, Gantt chart, Monte Carlo simulation) per l'eventuale successiva fase operativa, in caso di acquisizione del Contratto.

Historically, it has been negative to be dependent on only one resource, in the current situation this resource represents oil. The oil dependence is primarily in the transport sector. From a Swedish perspective oil is an energy resource mainly used in the transport sector. Much of the oil that Sweden imports has its origin in the North Sea. The oil production in the North Sea has however begun to decline, which highlights that oil is a finite resource. This also means that Sweden has to start importing oil from other countries, which may affect the Swedish energy security as these countries may be geographical further away and also be more political instable. It also implies that a transition from oil to renewable fuel within the transport sector is essential. The aim of this thesis is to study how Swedish energy security is affected by the oil production volumes in The North Sea. The thesis is divided into three parts. The first part consists of updating historical data from recent analyses on North Sea oil production (i.e. Höök and Aleklett, 2008 and Höök et al., 2009a), and also create updated forecasts of future oil production for both Denmark and Norway. The second part investigates how production declines in the North Sea affect the Swedish oil imports. The final section examines how a shift to renewable fuels within the transport sector is possible, with a focus on natural resources. Finally some recommendations are presented on how Sweden could increase their energy security regarding the transport sector by introducing renewable fuels.

The aim of this master thesis is to explore the significance of the growing oil sands production for the economy of the province of Alberta as well as the whole of Canada. Parts of this thesis will outline current global energetic situation with the emphasis on oil production and explain the importance of seeking new alternative sources which includes the renewable energy as well as the unconventional oil and gas. With the waning amount of easily accessible light oil reserves it is likely that the unconventional oil resources where the production is both energetically and financially challenging will become more and more important.

In this modern era, energy is a key element required for sustainable development and prosperity of a society. Pakistan is an energy deficient country facing problems due to the shortage of over 4000 MW of electricity. The national energy sector is heavily dependent on imported fossil-fuel resources. The energy crisis is negatively affecting all economic and business activities, and it is widely recognized as a severe obstacle to growth and poverty reduction in the country. Establishment of wind farms can help to overcome the energy crisis. In this research, a national level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a very new approach, and for the first time FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of Pakistan. Based on these multiple scenarios, a technology roadmap has been developed. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a case study. This approach has been used to establish objectives and national targets of the roadmap. Then in a systematic way, critical roadmap barriers are identified against each scenario, and appropriate action items have been proposed to overcome barriers and promote deployment of wind energy projects in Pakistan. The objectives and targets of the roadmap have been translated into action items. The technology roadmap has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert panels have been utilized to develop scenarios and technology roadmaps. Validation of this research is also carried out using experts. This new approach has helped to develop a robust roadmap and enabled anticipation of a wide range of possible future outcomes. This research fills an important gap by combining scenario planning and technology roadmapping techniques in future studies, and it has enhanced flexibility of the developed roadmap. Moreover, for the first time multiple and plausible FCM-based scenarios are developed, which combine the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Moreover, the technology roadmap for the wind energy sector of Pakistan is developed with a comprehensive study of practical obstacles and barriers towards deployment of wind energy technology. The research findings suggest that policy, financial, economic, lack of competition with conventional power plants, and technical are the most critical barriers towards deployment of wind energy projects in the country. Appropriate action items required to overcome the roadmap barriers against each scenario are also proposed in the developed roadmap. The experts also assigned responsibilities for the key roadmap action items to the major stakeholders.

The objective of the current study is to explore and identify the Critical Success Factors (CSFs), which impact upon the effective implementation of Human Resource Development (HRD) initiatives in support of nationalisation, and to recommend a model for practical application and future research. Accordingly the study focused on identifying and analysing the various factors in the localisation of a workforce with regard to five broad categories, namely: national level factors, organisational (policies and practices related) factors, organisational (HR related) factors, individual level (expatriate and experienced staff related) factors and individual level (UAE national related) factors. The data for the study was collected using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods were used to develop an in-depth case study of the Emiratisation process in an oil and gas organisation, as well as for identifying the critical success factors to be included in the survey questionnaire for collecting the quantitative data. The results of the study indicated that the critical success factors identified in the study are part of a complicated reality and need to be managed to ensure success of the localisation of a workforce. The mean scores obtained on the various factors differed significantly across the organisations or sub groups of respondents used in the study. This indicates that the impact of various factors that facilitate or constrain the localisation efforts are highly contextual and organisation specific. The findings of the study revealed valuable insights that could enrich not only future research in the area, but also the practical application of HR tools and methods to support the localisation process. The current study also developed a model for practical application and future research in the area. The model identified the role of HR strategies and tools as critical for managing the CSFs and ensuring the success of the process of localisation. The model developed in the current study also emphasises the need to define the 'success' of localisation in much broader terms, by addressing complex issues such as, employee morale and motivation, expectations of all employees, including expatriates and so forth, rather than just focusing on the number of UAE nationals employed and their competencies. The current study also identified some of the limitations of the study and highlighted suggestions for future research.

Mestrado em Finanças<br>Titular de uma posição preponderante no sector petrolífero, a Sonangol E.P é a maior empresa pública a operar em Angola e umas das maiores a operar em África. Detentora uma linha de negócios que integra toda a cadeia de valor referente ao negócio petrolífero, nomeadamente, desde a extração de petróleo e gás natural, até a sua transformação, distribuição e venda ao consumidor final. Contudo, sendo o principal veículo de desenvolvimento económico-financeiro em Angola, fruto dos avultados investimentos que realiza tanto no mercado doméstico como no internacional, a Sonangol E.P. depara-se com inúmeros desafios futuros consequentes da atual conjuntura macroeconómica vivida no País bem como a recente queda dos preços do petróleo. Assim, este Trabalho Final de Mestrado tem como objetivo avaliar a Sonangol E.P. e determinar o valor intrínseco das suas acções, através de um processo exaustivo de análise do Grupo, da indústria e das previsões de crescimento. A avaliação foi realizada pelo método do Free Cash Flow to Firm que de acordo com a revisão de literatura abordada pretende conciliar a teoria e prática de modo a se apurar o valor intrínseco das acções da empresa. Como resultado desta avaliação, foi possível concluir que a Sonangol detém um enterprise value de aproximadamente 15 mil milhões de euros, estando o valor intrínseco de cada acção a rondar os 9.23 euros. Concluindo, este trabalho providencia uma base sólida de análise para uma possível venda parcial ou total da empresa pelo estado Angolano, assim como para o lançamento de um possível IPO.<br>With a Key position in the sector of Energies, Sonangol E.P. (hereinafter "Sonangol" or "Group") is the largest state-run oil company operating in Angola, the Africa's second-largest crude producer. Holder of a business line that integrates the entire value chain of oil & gas business, since its extraction to its distribution and sale to the final costumer, Sonangol holds investments and interests in other sectors (transportation, real estate, education, healthcare, etc) which places the company on top of the largest firms in terms of assets and revenues operating in Angola. However, as the main driving force of the Angolan economy, Sonangol presents large future challenges due to the current macroeconomic situation lived in the country as well as the actual fall in oil prices. This Master's Final Work aims to determine the underlying enterprise value of Sonangol, through a thorough analysis of the Group and the industry as well as its growth prospects. The valuation was based on Free Cash Flow to the Firm methodology, which according to the established in the literature review, conciliate the theory and practice to reach the real value of Sonangol's share price. With this evaluation it was possible to conclude that Sonangol's enterprise value is EUR 15.566bn, being the intrinsic value of each share EUR 9.23. Therefore this study provides a solid basis of analysis, for possible sale of the company by the Angolan state, as well as turning the Group public through an IPO process (Initial Public Offer).

Enactment of Ghana's Petroleum (Local Content and Local Participation) Regulations, 2013 (L.I. 2204) was intended to regulate the percentage of local products, personnel, financing, and goods and services rendered within Ghana's upstream petroleum industry value chain. Five years after the inception of Ghana's upstream oil and gas industry, a gap is evident between the requirements of L.I. 2204 and professional practice. Drawing on Lewin's change theory, a cross-sectional study was conducted to examine the extent of differences between the prevailing human resource local content and the requirements of L.I. 2204 in Ghana's upstream petroleum industry. The extent to which training acquired by indigenous Ghanaians seeking jobs in Ghana's oil fields affects the prevalent local content in its upstream petroleum industry was also examined. Survey data were collected from 97 management, technical, and other staff in 2 multinational petroleum companies whose oil and gas development plans have been approved by the Petroleum Commission of Ghana. To answer the research questions and test their hypotheses, one-way ANOVA was performed with staff category (management, technical, and other) as the independent variable and prevalent local content as the dependent variable. Results indicated that prevailing local content in Ghana's upstream petroleum industry meets the requirements of L.I. 2204. Further, training acquired by indigenous Ghanaians seeking jobs in Ghana's oil fields affects the prevalent local content in its offshore petroleum industry. Findings may encourage leaders within multinational oil companies and the Petroleum Commission of Ghana to organize educational seminars that equip indigenous Ghanaians with specialized skills for working in Ghana's upstream petroleum industry.

This thesis compares policy instruments in the American and Canadian oil sectors from 1973 to 1977, the years immediately following the Arab oil embargo. Public policy has traditionally emphasized objectives over instruments even though instruments are at the heart of the policy making process. This case study helps to address this deficiency in the policy literature. It begins by providing a review of the instrument choice literature. Doern and Phidd's typology, which arranges instruments in terms of degrees of coercion, subsequently forms the basis for Chapter Two. Chapter Two's analysis of American and Canadian oil policy reveals that both countries agreed upon the security of supply objective. Furthermore, both deployed many similar instruments including suasion, direct expenditures, loans and guarantees, taxation, and regulation to reach the objective. However, one very important difference in instrument choice was made. While Canada deployed the most coercive policy instrument (public enterprise), the United States did not. Chapter Three offers three explanations for this specific difference. They are (1) differences in ideology, (2) market factors, and (3) differences in government institutions. The difference in ideology is the most important explanation. American ideology is decidedly more conservative than Canadian ideology. As such, American governments are less inclined to create government corporations, like national oil companies, than are Canadian governments. Furthermore, ideology is invariably reflected in a nation's party system, and neither of America's mainstream parties advocated the creation of an NOC while Canada's government party did. Market factors are also important. Countries with formidable industrial bases, such as the United States, are less likely to create public corporations than are those with weaker industrial bases. In the particular case of oil, Canada's oil industry was predominantly foreign-owned owing to insufficient pools of domestic capital. America's industry was overwhelmingly domestically-owned. Hence whereas Canada's NOC was the only oil company truly loyal to the Canadian people, an American NOC would have had to compete with home-based multinationals making it relatively unattractive to governing elites, and unnecessary to the American public. Finally, the differences between Canadian and American institutions are stark and important. Canada's parliamentary system of government fosters public corporations because corporations are easy to create and offer significant benefits to their political masters who can control them. The Canadian government set out to create an NOC in the mid-1970s and came across no obstacles. On the other hand, America's presidential system discourages public corporations. Not only did American Presidents and Congressmen not desire an NOC, but they were unable to legislate what comprehensive oil policy they did desire.<br>Arts, Faculty of<br>Political Science, Department of<br>Graduate

The monograph examines the historical and economic aspects of state regulation of the economy, and concludes that the national results of identical economic policies pursued by individual countries at different stages of development are heterogeneous.&#x0D; The necessity of improving the mechanism of centralized influence on economic activity in the Russian Federation by finding the optimal combination of various tools, taking into account the specifics of state regulation of the oil and gas complex as a structural element of the national economy, is proved. The article examines the world experience of oil-producing countries with a developed market structure, analyzes the cause-and-effect relationships between global processes on the world energy market and the internal economic specifics that arose during the modernization of production and the reform of the regulatory mechanism of the Russian oil and gas complex.&#x0D; It is recommended to everyone who is interested in the issues of state regulation of the economy and the development of the domestic oil and gas sector: state civil servants working in the fuel and energy sector, managers and employees of oil and gas enterprises, teachers, doctoral students, postgraduates and students.

AbstractThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region plays a vital role in shaping the global energy markets because of its substantial amount of hydrocarbons resources. Although the GCC has abundant hydrocarbon resources, countries in the region have also shown their commitment and intent to become the global leaders in alternate energy, especially, renewable energy through their “Visions and Laws”. Further, All the countries in the Middle East have also set targets for the deployment of renewable energy at the federal or local level.For several decades, there has been steady economic and population growth of the Middle East countries, with most of the region’s wealth and socio-economic development, tied to its substantial oil and gas resources. Renewable energy can provide an alternative to their energy landscape, which holds a vast potential to cut fuel costs, reduce GHG emissions.To promote renewable energy, in the last five years, renewable energy has gained a lot of interest in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Low tariffs bids for renewable energy generation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia since 2016 have made renewable energy, especially solar power competitive with conventional energy (International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Market Analysis-GCC 2019. s.l.: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019).With the push from the decision-makers to reduce the risk of dependence fossil fuels, the renewable energy plans can be implemented in the GCC. Decision-makers in the GCC have recognized the need for a plan for the post-oil era. This chapter will explore the GCC long term policies and government’s role in shaping the renewable energy market. Further, the chapter will also explore the challenges &amp; opportunities related to the renewable energy sector in GCC (International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Market Analysis-GCC 2019. s.l.: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019).

AbstractThis article explores Brazil’s relationship of trade dependency to China and its implications for the former’s attempt to lead the way into a low-carbon bioeconomy. While actors from Brazil’s sucro-energetic sector try to rescale the use of agrofuels as a clean source of bio-based energy, China’s growing demand for Brazilian resources places a structural constraint on any Brazilian attempt to move away from fossil developmental paradigms. The chapter shows how green narratives of South-South cooperation—entailing the “low-carbon bioeconomy” on the Brazilian side, and the concept of “ecological civilization” on the Chinese side—collide with the high-carbon qualities of Sino-Brazilian trade. Importantly, Brazilian exports to China are currently adding to the carbon-intensive quality of the global economy. Additionally, bilateral trade is indicative of a new pattern of global inequality in which Brazilian geographies of oil, iron ore and soy extraction provide the material basis for China’s economic transformation.

Abstract A combination of geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration and CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2EOR) can address the two of Trinidad and Tobago's energy sector challenges: falling oil production and increasing CO2 emissions. Geologic storage of CO2 in heavy oil reservoirs can increase oil production while injected CO2 is effectively sequestered. Our investigations are based on 225 ft (~69 m) of the unconsolidated Lower Forest sand, average porosity and permeability of 32% and 125 md, respectively, found within the Forest reserve field, Trinidad. The middle section of this sand package contains a 26 ft (8m) thick layer of shaly sand with average permeability 70 md and average porosity 28%. We used reservoir simulations to determine the impact of dip and reduced transmissibility on the performance of the water over gas injection strategy using CO2. From our results we conclude that the reduced vertical transmissibility and dip affects the formation of the oil bank, water underride and the rate of CO2 migration.

The complex nature of the energy industry across extraction, transportation, processing, delivery and decommissioning creates significant challenges to how the sector responds, adapts and mitigates against risks posed by the changing future climate. Any disruption in this interconnected system will affect both industry and society. For example, in the summer of 2005 Hurricane Katrina and a month later Hurricane Rita had wide reaching impacts on the US offshore Oil and Gas industry which resulted in an increase in global oil prices due to loss of production and refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico. Preparing, mitigating and adapting to these climate changes is dependent upon identifying appropriate climate indicators as well as the associated critical operational thresholds and design criteria of the identified vulnerable assets. The characterization and understanding of the likely changes in these climate indicators will form the basis for adaptation plans and mitigating actions. The Met Office in collaboration with energy industry partners, under the Copernicus Clim4energy European project, has developed a Climate Change Risk Assessment tool, which allows the visualization and extraction of the most recent sea level and wave climate information to evaluate their future changes. This study illustrates the application of this tool for evaluation of the potential vulnerability of an offshore infrastructure in the North Sea. The analysis shows that for this asset there is a small increase in sea level of 0.20–0.30 m at the location of interest by 2050. However, there is a small decrease or no consistent changes projected in the future wave climate. This wave signal is small compared to the uncertainty of the wave projections and the associated inter-annual variability. Therefore, for the 2050s time horizon, at the location of interest, there is no strong impact of climate change at the annual scale on the significant wave height, the sea level and thus the associated climate change driven extreme water level. However, further analysis are required at the seasonal and monthly scales.

Abstract A Produced Water (PW) Management framework is presented, forming part of an Upstream Effluent Management (UEM) Policy. It addresses the minimization and ultimate elimination of treated and untreated PW discharge by utilization of an integrated management approach to ensure Zero Harmful Discharge (ZHD) to the environment. This approach targeted legislative reform, sustainable PW management practices, monitoring and evaluation, research and development and sustainable production patterns. A Cabinet-appointed Upstream Effluent Management Committee was established for evaluating the status of the upstream, oil and gas, effluent management practices including that of PW and providing recommendations on the way forward. This included determining the challenges in meeting relevant environmental standards; evaluating Best Available Technology (BAT) or Best Practicable Environmental Options (BPEO) for local use and benchmarking local standards against international best practices. Ultimately, a UEM Policy, inclusive of a PW Management Policy, and a revised Water Pollution Rules 2019 (WPR) were developed, submitted and approved by the Cabinet of Trinidad and Tobago. Emerging from data evaluation and committee consultations, it was found that parameters from PW streams, such as Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Phenols and Ammoniacal Nitrogen were regularly out of compliance with local permissible limits. Additionally, it was noted that PW management was known to be generally costly, in terms of monitoring, treatment and disposal operations. As such the UEM Committee recommended that measures be taken to facilitate better PW management including, amendments to the Water Pollution Rules 2001 (as amended) and the TTS 547:1998, Specification for the Effluent From Industrial Processes Discharged into the Environment; to focus more on toxic components such as BTEX (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene and Xylene) and PAH (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons); improvement of the chemical evaluation and approval process by the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries (MEEI) to include a pre-screening step; and the establishment of National Ambient Water Quality Standards, which have been included in the revised WPR. The WPR also encourages re-use as a beneficial discount through the revised annual permit calculation. In addition, Environmental Risk Assessments (ERA) are to be utilized to evaluate the physical, biological and socio-economic environmental standing of the marine environment of Trinidad and Tobago, so as to comprehensively deduce the full impacts of effluent discharge. Trinidad and Tobago has been in oil and gas operations for over 100 years and this integrated management approach for PW introduces a set of novel strategies and tools, geared towards moving in a more environmentally sustainable direction. The approach envisages the use of a more industry-specific regulation that focuses on the toxic components. Furthermore, this method acknowledges that "not-one-size-fits-all" and so, based on the ERA results for the specific geographic marine jurisdictions surrounding Trinidad and Tobago; it encourages more environmentally sustainable and cost effective management.

Offshore hydrocarbon resources have been developed for many decades, and with technology improvements, many fields which were once impossible to develop, are now economically and technologically feasible. This has led to a growing difficulty in determining the legislative and regulatory framework for resources that straddle the recognized borders between two states. In this paper, we examine a successful framework agreement governing the transboundary resources between the United Kingdom (“U.K.”) and Norway in the North Sea, and the agreement between the United States and Mexico governing the Gulf of Mexico. Following the 2013 Energy Reform, the Mexican energy sector has been revitalized, leading to greater exploration, development, and production than ever before. This means that in the near future transboundary resources may be licensed for production, bringing the issues highlighted in this paper to the attention of multiple government and international entities. This paper seeks to recommend improvements to the transboundary framework in the Gulf of Mexico based on the successful framework agreement utilized in the North Sea. This paper begins by introducing international law for offshore resources in Part II. Part III discusses the offshore regulatory regimes in the U.K. and Norway, analyzing how the two states have successfully used bilateral agreements to facilitate cooperation regarding effective exploitation and apportionment of costs from cross-boundary offshore oil and gas projects in the North Sea. Part IV discusses the offshore regulatory regimes in the United States and Mexico and analyzes the current transboundary agreement in place for the Gulf of Mexico. Part V compares the transboundary agreement governing the North Sea and the same governing the Gulf of Mexico. We highlight the major differences in the agreements and suggest changes to the Gulf of Mexico agreement based on the successful North Sea agreement. Finally, this paper concludes and provides key policy recommendations to improve the rules and regulations surrounding the exploitation of transboundary hydrocarbons in the Gulf of Mexico.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.