Academic literature on the topic 'Oil-For-Food Programme'

Corruption, as a nontraditional form of crime, occurred when power is abused to gain certain favours for individuals or parties at the expense of the rest. Siemens Aktiengesellscahft (Siemens AG) bribery case is the biggest company corruption revealed in history, in which the company had been convicted guilty for giving bribes to governments in many countries, from developing to developed countries. In Iraq, Siemens AG was proved guilty for giving bribes to Saddam Hussein regime during its involvement in United Nation Oil for Food Programme (UN-OFFP) in 2000-2002. This research is conducted to understand causing factors of such action by employing qualitative data for further analysis. Research finding shows that corruption in UN-OFFP involving three institutions: Siemens AS, Saddam Hussein regime, and UN, was occurred due to pragmatism in pursuing economic motive which encouraged by accommodative culture and enabled by weak law enforcement.

Both national authorities and the donor community require methods of locust and grasshopper control that are less insecticide-dependent and more environmentally friendly. The LUBILOSA (LUtte Biologique contre les LOcustes et les SAuteriaux) programme has identified mycoinsecticides, based on aerial conidia of fungal entomopathogens such as Metarhizium, as the most effective biological control technique discovered to date. High (90%) insect mortalities have been demonstrated in the field following the application of oil-based formulations with ultra-low volume spraying equipment normally used for acridid control. The mechanisms of disease transmission in the field are still under investigation and the programme has helped to initiate a re-evaluation of the taxonomic status of the genus Metarhizium. Effective mycoinsecticides can be produced using relatively unsophisticated equipment although the quality of commercial products would need to be carefully controlled. Metarhizium has recently been recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for use in environmentally sensitive areas, and the programme has now entered an implementation phase.

This article is based on the scientific paper: Casadei, E., Valli, E., Panni, F., Donarski, J., Farrús Gubern, J., Lucci, P., Conte, L., Lacoste, F., Maquet, A., Brereton, P., Bendini, A., Gallina Toschi, T., Emerging trends in olive oil fraud and possible countermeasures, Food Control 124: 107902, 2021. The work was developed in the context of the project OLEUM “Advanced solutions for assuring authenticity and quality of olive oil at global scale”, funded by the European Commission within the Horizon 2020 Programme (2014–2020, GA no. 635690). The information expressed in this article reflects the authors’ views; the EC is not liable for the information contained therein.

Energy sector has been one o f the most important priorities since reestablishment o f the independence o f Latvia. The deficiency o f energy resources in Latvia has created a need to assess all the possibilities to utilize all the local enrgy resources, including the biological ones, to motivate the trends in the development of energetics in Latvia. Therefore data have been collected, calculations made and possibilities analysed to replace the imported energy resources. From the renewable energy in Latvia there are used the wind, solar, hydraulic and bioenergy. A biofuel programme has been worked out in Latvia. It is envisaged to develop the production of ethanol and rape oil for vehicle engines. For this purpose an arable area of 288 thousand ha is needed. A huge non-utilised reserve in Latvia is methane fermentation of organic agricultural and municipal residue and sewage from food industry. It is calculated that about 170 million m3 biogas can be obtained in Latvia. Implementation of the fuel programme will stimulate Latvia’s economy.

AbstractObjectiveNutritional impact of the Tick front-of-pack labelling programme was evaluated by investigating nutrient changes to the purchased food supply and the nutritional quality of Tick v. non-Tick products. Factors influencing manufacturers’ decisions to develop and license Tick products were also explored.DesignObservational, cross-sectional and change over time data.SettingNew Zealand food supply, 2011–2013.SubjectsForty-five newly licensed Tick products from five food categories were analysed: Edible Oil Spreads, Yoghurt & Dairy Desserts, Frozen Desserts, Ready Meals and Processed Poultry. Four manufacturers of these products were interviewed.ResultsEligible products (31 % of all Tick products in these categories) removed 4·1 million megajoules of energy, 156·0 tonnes of saturated fat, 15·4 tonnes of trans-fat and 4·0 tonnes of sodium from food products sold in New Zealand over three years. In each food category, these Tick products were, on average, 14–76 % lower in energy, saturated fat, trans-fat and sodium than non-Tick products, indicating healthier options. Participating manufacturers reported that international market trends and consumer demand for tasty, healthy foods primarily influenced Tick product development and sales. Tick was used as part of their marketing strategy as it was perceived as a credible, well-recognised logo for New Zealand consumers. Tick was cited as the primary initiative encouraging saturated fat reduction.ConclusionsThe Tick Programme is continuing to encourage manufacturers to make meaningful improvements to the nutritional quality of the New Zealand food supply. Over time, these changes are likely to influence population nutrient intakes and reduce CVD risk factors.

AbstractObjectiveTo assess oil consumption, vitamin A intake and retinol status before and a year after the fortification of unbranded palm oil with retinyl palmitate.DesignPre–post evaluation between two surveys.SettingTwenty-four villages in West Java.SubjectsPoor households were randomly sampled. Serum retinol (adjusted for subclinical infection) was analysed in cross-sectional samples of lactating mothers (baselinen324/endlinen349), their infants aged 6–11 months (n318/n335) and children aged 12–59 months (n469/477), and cohorts of children aged 5–9 years (n186) and women aged 15–29 years (n171), alongside food and oil consumption from dietary recall.ResultsFortified oil improved vitamin A intakes, contributing on average 26 %, 40 %, 38 %, 29 % and 35 % of the daily Recommended Nutrient Intake for children aged 12–23 months, 24–59 months, 5–9 years, lactating and non-lactating women, respectively. Serum retinol was 2–19 % higher at endline than baseline (P<0·001 in infants aged 6–11 months, children aged 5–9 years, lactating and non-lactating women; non-significant in children aged 12–23 months;P=0·057 in children aged 24–59 months). Retinol in breast milk averaged 20·5 μg/dl at baseline and 32·5 μg/dl at endline (P<0·01). Deficiency prevalence (serum retinol <20 μg/dl) was 6·5–18 % across groups at baseline, and 0·6–6 % at endline (P≤0·011). In multivariate regressions adjusting for socio-economic differences, vitamin A intake from fortified oil predicted improved retinol status for children aged 6–59 months (P=0·003) and 5–9 years (P=0·03).ConclusionsAlthough this evaluation without a comparison group cannot prove causality, retinyl contents in oil, Recommended Nutrient Intake contributions and relationships between vitamin intake and serum retinol provide strong plausibility of oil fortification impacting vitamin A status in Indonesian women and children.

Ayurveda, a science of life emphasizes on the maintenance, promotion of health and curing of diseases through Dincharya, Ritucharya and Aahar as well as medicine. As per Ayurveda, Aahar is Mahoshad and edible oils form an essential part of our diet. Olis (Tail) provide Strength and rigidity of skin and also helpful to longevity. The oil plays an important role in our daily life due to constitutive property and essential part of our food. The traditional medicinal system of India mentioned oils for different uses along with part of food like;for Massage, Nasya, Basti, Kavala, Gandusha etc. This article shows a study based on a survey, conducted under Nirogi Rajasthan Programme. This study was done on 1500 people aged above 60 years irrespective of their gender. The Persons were 1022 out of 1500 irrespective of their gender, use non-refined oil on a daily basis. Among these 537 were male and 485 were females. In this Study, we found that people who take non-refined oil on a daily basis have better life expectancy or Longevity. Oils are an important part of our diet either, increase or decrease in its amount leads to many systemic disorders. Alopecia, thrombocytopenia, intellectual disability, Vitamin deficiency disorders caused by Vitamin A, D, E and K are caused by lack of essential fatty acids. However fatty liver, obesity, dyslipidemia, CVD, Hypertension all are caused by excessive amounts of fat in the body. The proper amount of oil consumption and proper metabolism are essential for maintaining health. Good health deals with longevity.

AbstractThis exploratory holo-analysis of the efficacy of Bio-Mos®, (BM), an outer cell wall derivative of a strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, is part of an empirical modelling research programme comparing the efficacies of potential replacements for veterinary prescription-free pronutrient antibiotics in pig production. The data resource was mined from 128 saccharide publications of which 31/97 on BM (1997 to 2003) provided 69 negatively controlled start-to-finish tests from 10 countries (USA 71%) using 3778 pigs(30·5 per treatment). Respective food intake, live-weight gain and food conversion responses of 0·0075 kg/day (0·99%), 0·0145 kg/day (3·58%) and −0·0526 (3·07%) have coefficients of variation of 511, 163 and 229% and beneficial gain and conversion frequencies of 73 and 68%, 54% jointly. Holo-analytical multiple regression models of BM food intake, live-weight gain and food conversion effects using conventional and less stringent probabilities contain significant independent variables for negative control performances, dosage, discontinuous dosage, test duration, year of test, non-USA test, male, grower-finisher, slatted floor, processed food, antibacterial foods, animal protein food, main vegetable protein not soya bean, added oil/fat food and factorial data, which account for 11 to 68% of variations in response. The models quantify differences in research and praxis and indicate areas for future modelling research on BM dose-response relations, effects of ration ingredient and nutrient contents, other saccharide efficacy comparisons, including lactose, and BM comparisons and interactions with other proposed antibiotic replacements.

Nigeria is the largest rice producing country in West Africa, but also the second largest importer of rice in the world. The current government policy initiatives aim at prioritizing the rice sector and decreasing dependence on import thereby fostering production and supplying agricultural inputs. Nigeria is faced with mounting food import bills for the staple crop that has been consuming huge chunks of foreign exchange, particularly in times of low crude oil revenues, the government, in 2015, created the Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), a micro-credit scheme for farmers of identified crops, including rice. Jigawa State is mainly an agrarian area, and is one of the major rice producing zones in the country. Three specific objectives guided the study. One null hypothesis was formulated and tested as 0.05 level of significance. Data for the study was collected through a researcher designed questionnaire. Result was analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation. Inferential statistic of binary logic regression was used to test the null hypothesis formulated. Result of the findings shows that there is high level of ABP awareness among smallholder rice farmers in the study area as well as high accessibility of farmers to the facilities provided. Government should give larger financial support to the programme and should be made available in all rice growing states of the federation was among recommendations made.

This report addresses the consequences of the Iraqi Public Distribution System (PDS), a food rationing system managed by the Iraqi Ministry of Trade (MoT), administered by the U.N. World Food Programme (WFP), and supported with U.S. food aid. The Saddam Hussein administration created the PDS as emergency food aid in 1991 when United Sanctions (UN) sanctions made food imports to Iraq difficult. After more than two decades in operation, the PDS has developed long-term negative effects on Iraq’s most vulnerable populations. Specific vulnerable populations include Iraqi War Widows, Iraqi farmers, and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP). This report introduces the current Public Distribution System following a thorough background on the development of government-citizen relations, Sunni-Shi’i dynamics, and urban-rural economies throughout the twentieth Century in Iraq. The PDS harms the most food vulnerable Iraqis more than it assists them in the long run because of the unreliable delivery times, poor quality of the PDS goods, and depreciation of the local food market; therefore, the WFP and Iraqi MoT should limit the PDS recipients, improve the efficiency and quality of fewer goods in the PDS basket, and strengthen Iraq’s agriculture sector to provide for the current market and wheat exports. Based on an analysis of the U.S. farm bill, this paper recommends a shift in U.S. food aid from distributing American surplus crops as food aid. The U.S. government should focus on building capacity in the Iraqi agriculture sector with a model similar to the Obama Administration’s Feed the Future (FTF) initiative.
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A scandal of fraud and corruption in the management of the Oil-for-Food Programme for Iraq unfolded in early 2004 at the United Nations. The Secretary-General Annan, terminated the ongoing investigation of the scandal by the extant Office of Internal Oversight empowered by the General Assembly, and, with the endorsement of the Security Council, contracted out an Inquiry Committee to investigate the administration and management of the Programme. The lack of reasonable number of studies about internal audit in its natural settings (Lee, 2004), aggravated by the gaps found in the literature about the impact of pathological behavior in international organizations (Barnett and Finnemore, 1999), stress the research opportunity. A longitudinal historical narrative analytical case based research applying first time Williamson’s (1999) Transaction Cost Economics theory to explore “probity” and “independence” transactions’ attributes enhanced with the “virtues ethics” McCloskey’s (2006) framework, is developed to respond to the questions i) Has the inquiry worked? ii) Has Transaction Cost Economics’ discriminating alignment hypothesis been verified in the case of the Oil-for-Food scandal inquiry? The inquiry, which contains “sovereign” as well as “quasi-judiciary” transactions elements, and though lack the “authority of the sovereign” and the “independence” of the judiciary attributes, did not work. Transaction Cost Economics alignment hypothesis did not verify and “probity” hazards – “ethics” – cannot be relieved by governance structures, i.e., incentives. I argue that Transaction Cost Economics should be modified to include McCloskey’s “virtues ethics” behavioral dimension as a transaction costs’ reduction device and an explanatory framework for bureaucratic ethical failures.
Um escândalo de fraude e corrupção na gestão do Oil-for-Food Programme para o Iraque eclodiu em 2004 nas Nações Unidas. O Secretário-Geral Annan terminou a investigação em curso dos Serviços de Supervisão e Inspeção Interna que atua com poderes delegados pela Assembleia Geral e, com o aval do Conselho de Segurança, contratou uma comissão de inquérito independente para investigar. Insuficiência de estudos sobre os contextos em que a auditoria interna funciona (Lee, 2004), agravada pelas lacunas encontradas na literatura sobre o impacto de comportamentos patológicos em organizações internacionais (Barnett e Finnemore, 1999) justificam a pesquisa. Um método investigação de estudo de caso longitudinal suportado por uma análise de narrativa histórica, aplicando pela primeira vez a teoria Económica do Custo de Transação de Williamson (1999) para explorar os atributos da “probidade” e da “independência” das transações, é desenvolvido para responder às perguntas: O inquérito resultou? Verificou-se a hipótese de alinhamento discriminante da teoria Económica do Custo de Transação no caso da contratação do inquérito externo? A investigação, com elementos das transações de auditoria e das judiciais, faltando-lhe, todavia, a autoridade soberana e a independência dos atributos judiciários, não resultou nem a hipótese de alinhamento da teoria Económica do Custo de Transação se verificou porque os riscos de probidade – ética – não podem ser mitigados através de incentivos de estruturas de governação. Defendo que a Economia dos Custos de Transação deve ser modificada para incluir a dimensão comportamental da ética das virtudes de McCloskey como um instrumento de redução de custos de transação e um quadro referencial explicativo para falhas de ética em organizações burocráticas.

Abstract There are at least 1 billion hungry people worldwide and the Asia and Pacific region harbours the biggest estimated regional distribution of hunger. Lifting a billion people out of poverty and feeding more than 9 billion by 2050 will require increasing cereal production by 70%. Accelerating the development of agriculture to continually increase productivity should be the final approach to end poverty. Mutation techniques have played very significant roles in ensuring food security by developing new mutant germplasm and mutant varieties in China, which have generated a tremendous socio-economic impact. New mutagenesis approaches were initiated in the late 1980s by Chinese scientists, including spaceflight and heavy-ion beam irradiation used as new effective and alternative ways for crop genetic improvement. Protocols for crop mutation induction by space radiation with high-energy heavy-ion beams have been established and applied for crop breeding. More than 1030 mutant varieties with high-yielding, fine-quality and multi-resistant traits have been developed and officially released mainly in cereals, oil and vegetable crops. They have been playing an important role in agricultural production. Hundreds of rare mutant germplasm accessions with a possible breakthrough effect on main economic traits such as grain yield and quality were also identified and applied in conventional breeding programmes. The development of new mutation techniques will be heavily based on, and associated with, not only effective use of nuclear and aerospace research platforms, but also advanced plant omics and molecular biology.

Abstract The Department of Agriculture (DOA) in Sri Lanka initiated mutation breeding in the 1960s with the introduction of a cobalt-60 source. The first rice mutant variety, MI 273, was released for general cultivation in 1971. M1 273, derived from irradiation of the H-4 variety, was identified as a drought-tolerant variety. An indirect rice mutant variety, developed by crossing the short mutant line BW267-3 with a highly adaptable variety, was released as BW 372 in 2013. It is moderately tolerant to blast, bacterial leaf blight, brown plant hopper, gall midge and iron toxicity, and thus increases productivity to 3-4 t/ha on lands prone to iron toxicity. The most popular groundnut variety cultivated in the country, 'Tissa', is a mutant developed by irradiation with gamma-rays at 200 Gy. It showed attributes of high yield, medium maturity (90-100 days) and high oil content (42%). 'Tissa' presently covers 80% of the groundnut cultivated area in Sri Lanka. A sesame mutant line, derived from the variety MI-3 irradiated at 200 Gy with 60Co gamma-rays, was released as 'Malee' (ANK-S2) in 1993. It is a high-yielding variety (1.1-1.8 t/ha) resistant to Phytophthora blight. A cherry-type mutant tomato variety, developed by irradiation of seeds with gamma-rays (320 Gy), was released as 'Lanka Cherry' in 2010. Improved attributes are pear-shaped fruits and bacterial wilt resistance. Narrow genetic variability in many crops is a constraint to the development of new varieties adapted to the changing climate. Hence, the DOA is emphasizing integration of induced mutagenesis in conventional breeding programmes to develop resistant/tolerant varieties having high yield, quality and health-promoting functional properties in field and horticultural crops. The newly installed gamma irradiation chamber facilitates the creation of genetic variability in food crops, thus paving the way for the development of greener varieties.

This chapter examines the politics of the sanctions imposed on Iraq by the United Nations four days after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. The UN Security Council's decision to impose sanctions for Iraq's aggression against Kuwait was justified. However, these should have been accompanied by a carefully crafted humanitarian exemption to ensure that the civilian population would receive what they needed for a dignified survival, especially food, medicines, clean water, and electricity. The UN's failure to do so eventually led to the successive resignations of Denis Halliday and the this chapter's author as Baghdad-based UN assistant secretaries-general and humanitarian coordinators. The chapter recounts how the UN sanctions on Iraq during the period 1990–2003 were implemented in “an iron-fist and an inhuman” way at the expense of the Iraqi civilians. It also considers how the humanitarian exception to these sanctions—via the Oil-for-Food program—was overshadowed by powerful Western interests for regime change in Iraq. The chapter suggests that the UN was caught between geopolitical considerations and its humanitarian mission.

The potential of soybean for food, feed, and pharmaceutical industry arises from the composition of its seed. Since European countries import 95% of the annual demand for soybean grains, meal, and oil, causing an enormous trade deficit, the governments in Europe had started to introduce additional incentives to stimulate soybean cropping. To rebalance the sources of soybean supply in the future, production must be followed by continuous research to create varieties that would make European soybean more appealing to the processing industry and profitable enough to satisfy European farmers. This chapter is giving an overview of the European soybean seed quality research and an insight into soybean seed quality progress made at the Agricultural Institute Osijek, Croatia. The studies presented are mainly considering maturity groups suitable for growing in almost all European regions. The most important traits of soybean seed quality discussed are protein content and amino acid composition, oil content and fatty acid composition, soluble sugars, and isoflavones. Defining quality traits facilitates the parental selection in breeding programs aiming to improve the added value properties of final soybean products and enables the exchange of materials between different breeding and research institutions to introduce diversity, which is a prerequisite for genetic advance.

Intervention of various technologies to improve the food and nutritional status of the population proved the following facts: Promotion of malt based small scale food industry not only provides opportunity for rural women to develop entrepreneurship and employment, but also provides food and nutritional security through income generation. Several technologies were developed under NATP like value addition to fish and prawn products, artificial pearl culture, processing of salted fish, which helped the self help group women of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu to improve their economic status. Received two patents and licensed the technology which helped the women to reduce their drudgery and also preserve the fresh fish for a longer time without getting spoiled. Product development can be taken as income generating activity in the rural areas by the illiterate women. Products can be included in supplementary feeding programs in order to improve the nutritional status of the vulnerable groups of the population. The horse gram which is commonly used for cattle feed can be diversified for human consumption with less investment. Mothers as well as Anganwadi workers preferred amylase rich supplementary foods which reduced Grade 3 and grade 4 malnutrition in Preschool children significantly. The studies revealed that spawn multiplication can be done by women as a co-operative venture and mushroom cultivation can be undertaken at household level as an income-generating activity. Introducing red palm oil is beneficial to overcome vitamin A deficiency. Impact of women's supplementary income on family's nutritional status showed that the supplementary income of women has a positive impact on the socioeconomic status of the family. This impact is particularly felt on the food and nutrient intake of the family contributing towards food and nutrition security.

Fire has always held a fascination for humans, and it has been one of our most useful tools. Fire has provided warmth, cooked food, cleared forest lands, offered protection against marauding animals, and much more. Although garbage has probably been burned ever since humans discovered fire, it has been incinerated in a systematic manner for only about a century. Perhaps surprisingly, given its long history and obvious benefits, waste incineration is a topic that is both controversial and emotional. In this chapter we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of incineration and how it can contribute to an integrated waste management program. Under proper conditions, incineration provides a number of benefits: • It greatly reduces the volume of waste that must go to disposal in landfills—a vitally important objective. In conventional municipal incinerators, the volume reduction ranges from 80% to 95%, with a mean of about 90%. • It can be used in conjunction with landfill mining (see chapter 8) to reclaim closed landfills and greatly extend the operating lifetimes of existing landfills. • The ash produced is relatively homogeneous and thus more suitable than raw waste for treatment such as solidification in concrete. • A relatively large proportion of the organic compounds, including putrescible and hazardous wastes, is destroyed; thus, there is a net reduction in the quantity of toxics. • Energy can be generated as a useful byproduct, which preserves nonrenewable fuels like natural gas, oil, and coal. Fewer air pollutants are produced by burning waste than by burning coal or oil. The use of incineration has been increasing in the United States since about the mid-1980s, and currently the country burns about 16% of its municipal wastes (EPA, 1994). This figure is significantly lower in Canada—about 4%—but it can be much higher overseas. For example, Japan, which faced its waste disposal crisis in the 1950s, 20 years before the crisis reached North America, incinerates approximately 34% of its municipal garbage (Hershkowitz & Salerni, 1987). Most Japanese incinerators generate electricity.

Medical geology studies the influence of geo-environmental factors on the geographical distribution of diseases of humans and animals. In the east and southern African subregion, there has been little attention paid to date on the extent to which these factors may be important in disease causation, even though developing countries in general can be shown to hold tremendous promise for specific research in this field. This chapter highlights some problems of geomedical relevance in the subregion and submits that interdisciplinary research among scientists can help provide practical solutions. The iodine deficient regions of east and southern Africa have been identified and the widespread occurrence of goiter and related conditions, collectively referred to as iodine deficiency disorders (IDD), firmly established (e.g., Davies 1994, Jooste et al. 1997). These are serious and debilitating consequences, particularly for poor populations, as the capacity of children is severely restricted and they become a burden to the family. The reported geographical distribution of endemic goiter in East Africa is shown in Figure 22.1. Many aid agencies and governments have attempted to solve the problem by increasing dietary intake of iodine via the introduction of iodized salt and iodized oil programs. Despite these interventions, IDD remain a major problem in the subregion. It is likely that IDD are multi-causal diseases involving factors such as trace element deficiencies, goiter-inducing substances in foodstuffs (known as goitrogens), and genetics (Fordyce 2000). However, geochemists have an important role to play in determining the environmental cycling of iodine and its uptake into the food chain if levels of dietary iodine are to be enhanced successfully. It has now been established that excessive fluorine (mainly in the form of fluoride) is present in parts of the hydrological system of Kenya as well as other countries in the subregion, particularly those that are associated with rift formation (Gaciri and Davies 1993). Fluoride in minor amounts (around 1.3 ppm) reduces dental decay and enhances the proper development of the bone. A similar level of fluoride intake may also be beneficial to animals.

Construction of the 493 km Corridor Pipeline System commenced in summer 2000, and is scheduled for completion in 2002. The system connects the two major components of the Athabasca Oil Sands Project — the Muskeg River Mine, north of Ft. McMurray and the Upgrader adjacent to Shell Canada Limited’s Scotford Refinery, near Fort Saskatchewan. The pipeline will also link the Upgrader with terminals in the Edmonton Area. The system includes dual pipelines (610 mm and 323.9 mm O.D.) as well as associated pump stations and valve sites. Corridor Pipeline Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of BC Gas Inc. Corridor pipeline crosses Hartley Creek near the south boundary of Shell’s lease C-13, north of Ft. McMurray, in the Ft. McKay First Nations traditional lands. An evaluation of the proposed crossing completed for the project application identified the location as highly sensitive to pipeline construction activities because of the high fish habitat quality and historical presence of sport and coarse fish. Although a fish survey completed for the above evaluation identified only coarse fish species, the provincial approval for the project required a trenchless crossing method unless authorized in writing by the Director. After completing detailed geotechnical and fisheries assessments of the crossing site, authorization from the director was subsequently obtained to complete the crossing using an isolation method. Planning and consultation with Ft. McKay First Nations to construct through their traditional lands incorporated aspects of traditional ecological knowledge. As part of the program, Corridor Pipeline committed to completion of a traditional plant survey. The results of the survey identified Hartley Creek as having cultural significance to the band. The riparian zone in this area supports a large concentration of food and medicinal plant species. Specialized mitigative measures were incorporated in order to maintain the density and diversity of the Hartley Creek riparian zone. This paper presents information with regard to the environmental studies and the regulatory process used to obtain approval to complete construction of the Hartley Creek crossing using an isolation method instead of the trenchless method originally required by the provincial government. It also explains the consultation program with the Ft. McKay First Nations and environmental planning used to maintain the density and diversity of riparian vegetation at this culturally significant crossing location.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.