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Journal articles on the topic 'Okum's law'

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Published: 7 June 2025

Last updated: 26 June 2025

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1

Farida, Millias Tuty, Anwar Chairil, and Ahlis Djirimu Moh. "Application of the Bourguignon Model to the Economy of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia." Journal of Economics, Finance And Management Studies 08, no. 05 (2025): 2810–24. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15393757.

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This study examined the factors influencing economic growth in Central Sulawesi using François Bourguignon’s PGI Triangle theory (Poverty, Growth, and Inequality). Despite high economic growth, persistent poverty, inequality, and unemployment indicated developmental imbalances. The research highlighted an anomaly where rapid growth coexisted with severe socio-economic disparities. The study introduced a novelty approach by modifying Bourguignon’s model to include unemployment (Okum's law) and applying the Lagged Adjustment Growth (LAG) framework to assess delayed effects. Using panel data from 12 districts and 1 city between 2016 and 2021, the Random Effect Model (REM) was selected based on Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The findings revealed that inequality and unemployment significantly hindered economic growth, while Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) had a positive effect. Poverty, however, exhibited a negative but statistically insignificant relationship with growth. These results underscore the need for inclusive growth policies to reduce inequality and foster sustainable development.

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2

Nadeshan, Perenparaj, and Gnanachandran Gnanachandran. "Validity of Okun's law in Sri Lanka." International Journal of Business, Management and Economics 2, no. 2 (2021): 118–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.47747/ijbme.v2i2.253.

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The main goal of our research is to find out a relationship between the unemployment rate and the GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka according to Okun’s law and to know whether it can still be used as the best rule of thumb. This empirical analysis has employed the difference model, dynamic model, Error Correction Model (ECM) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to validate the relationship between the unemployment rate and economic growth suggested by Okun's Law. The study is based on Quarterly data from 2004 Q1 to 2019 Q4. The results obtained through the application of varies econometric techniques such as Ordinary least square (OLS), Engel-Granger approach and cointegration procedure. The study finds that, Okun’s law is supported only by the cointegration analysis as expected by the Okun’s law in Sri Lanka. However, all other versions were reported negative Okun’s law coefficient signs while these results are not statistically significant. Overall this study is not able to found enough evidence to prove the inverse relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth rate in short run and able to found that Okun’s law can still be used as the best rule of thumb to describe the relationship between the unemployment and GDP growth in long term in Sri Lanka.

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3

Astari, Mayra, Lies Maria Hamzah, and Arivina Ratih. "Hukum OKUN: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Tingkat Pengangguran di Indonesia." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 8, no. 1 (2019): 37–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/jep.v8i1.32.

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This study examined the validity of Okun's Law on the Indonesian economy by using the difference version of Okun's Law to obtain the Okun coefficient. This study uses the analysis of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The estimation results concluded that Okun's Law proved to have a negative and significant effect on the Indonesian economy because the variable economic growth was shown to influence the unemployment variable statistically.

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Djamal, Dekkiche, and Laila Oulad Brahim. "Asymmetric Effect of GDP on Unemployment in North African Group Countries According to Okun's Law." Futurity Economics&Law 5, no. 1 (2025): 4–24. https://doi.org/10.57125/fel.2025.03.25.01.

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The purpose of this work is to study Okun's law in a sample of North African economies (Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, and Egypt) by examining the impact of the output gap on the unemployment gap and contributing to economic growth to reduce unemployment. These investigations aim to fill a significant gap in the empirical literature on the motives of Okun law in developing countries in general and North African countries in particular. The panel nonlinear ARDL model was used to examine the presence of Okun's law in North African economies over the period 1991-2023. The results of testing Okun's law in the sample of selected countries showed that Okun's law is valid for North African countries but in smaller amounts than those reached by Okun (between -2 and -3). Algeria recorded the highest value of -0.36. In addition, it was noted that the negative impact of GDP on unemployment rates is more significant than the positive impact in all the countries under study and is more critical in the cases of Algeria and Egypt. The study recommends prioritising economic growth through investments in labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture and industry, reducing bureaucratic inefficiencies, combating corruption, and fostering a favourable investment climate. Moreover, actions that can be taken involve improving training initiatives and implementing policies that promote the sector to stimulate the growth of stable employment opportunities. As a result, these empirical research findings regarding Okun’s Law are essential in shaping nations' economies and offer actionable suggestions for policymakers.

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5

Eßlinger, Viola, and Helmut Wienert. "Okun's Law." WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium 42, no. 4 (2013): 192–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.15358/0340-1650_2013_4_192.

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6

Pan, Xingyi. "The Research on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Unemployment in Spain." BCP Business & Management 40 (March 8, 2023): 106–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v40i.4365.

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Spain’s economy is so volatile that unemployment is extremely high. What’s more, Spain has a dual labor market with many temporary contracts, which contributes to high unemployment. Thus, this study investigates the relationship between unemployment and GDP in Spain by implementing Okun's Law. Using annual data for the period 1972-2021, JMP was used to obtain a simple regression between unemployment rate and GDP and Inflation rate. Empirical results show that GDP is not related to unemployment. However, inflation is related to unemployment. Therefore, Okun’s law cannot be confirmed by Spain, and the lack of GDP does not explain Spain's unemployment problem.

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7

Chamberlin, Graeme. "Okun's Law revisited." Economic & Labour Market Review 5, no. 2 (2011): 104–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/elmr.2011.21.

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8

Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo. "Okun's Law Revisited*." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65, no. 4 (2003): 439–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.t01-1-00056.

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9

Andreescu, Francesca Dana. "Empirical Evidences Regarding Okun's Law in the Central and Eastern Europe in the Post – Financial Crisis Period." Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence 18, no. 1 (2024): 358–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/picbe-2024-0031.

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Abstract Numerous studies have been conducted based on Okun’s Law (1962), researchers proposing various approaches, while the two most common are the difference approach, which reflects the link between the variation of unemployment rate and the output growth, and the gap approach, which shows the relationship between the deviation of the actual unemployment rate from the natural unemployment rate and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gap. In order to see how the relationship looks like over time and how the Okun’s coefficient varies from country to country, this study analyzes the sensitivity of unemployment at output changes while carries out a comparative analysis for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries, regarding Okun's Law applicability in the post-financial crisis period, taking into consideration previous relevant researches. Therefore, the assessment is based on quarterly data, between 2010 and 2019, for unemployment and economic growth, recorded in five CEE countries, members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD): Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. While the research is based both on the gap and difference method, it may lead to results sensitive to the method chosen in order to assess the unobservable variables, namely potential output and natural unemployment rate. In order to determine the structural components of the GDP and unemployment rate, it is used the Hodrick-Prescott univariate filter, applied on quarterly data. Before estimating the Okun's coefficient, the study also examines the causality relationship between unemployment and GDP using Granger causality test.

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10

Darman, Darman. "Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran: Analisis Hukum Okun." Winners 14, no. 1 (2013): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.21512/tw.v14i1.639.

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The concept of a negative relationship between economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) and unemployment rate is known as Okun's law (Okun's Law) or the Okun coefficient. The application of Okun's law in Indonesia uses time series data from 1999 to 2013. The method used is the difference version of Okun's law to gain Okun coefficient and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis to obtain the regression coefficients. In a macro-economic framework, Okun's law states that if the GDP grows at 2.5% above the trend, which has been achieved in a given year, the unemployment rate will fall by 1 %. From various studies conducted by several researchers can be seen that the Okun coefficient in each different country. In Indonesia, the scientific literature that specifically raised the Okun's law does not available, so the study aims to look at how the application of Okun's law in Indonesia The results showed that Okun's law applies in Indonesia, where the Okun coefficient is negative. The unemployment rate tends to increase in line with GDP growth reached.

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11

Silvapulle, Paramsothy, Imad A. Moosa, and Mervyn J. Silvapulle. "Asymmetry in Okun's law." Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d`Economique 37, no. 2 (2004): 353–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0008-4085.2004.00006.x.

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12

Valadkhani, Abbas. "Okun's Law in Australia." Economic Record 91, no. 295 (2015): 509–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12221.

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13

m, Yusuf, and Erhan l. "Does Economic Growth Have a Nonlinear Relationship with Unemployment in Türkiye? Evidence From Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model." Ekonomik Yaklasim 34, no. 128 (2023): 299. http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/ey.28003.

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Economic growth and employment have long been a source of concern for economists and policymakers. Okun, an American economist, was the first to examine the relationship between economic growth and unemployment. Okun’s law states that a 3% increase in output results in a 1% drop in unemployment. The main objective of this paper is to examine this hypothesis for Turkish economy by using quarterly data from 2001 to 2023. The relationship between the unemployment and economic growth has been analyzed by employing Granger causality test and self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. According to SETAR findings, there exists a threshold value binding in describing the relationship between unemployment and economic growth. As a result, Okun's Law is applicable to Türkiye.

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14

Raifu, Isiaka Akande, and Alarudeen Aminu. "Testing Okun's Law Over the Business Cycle: The Case of South Africa." Journal of Developing Areas 57, no. 3 (2023): 107–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jda.2023.a907737.

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ABSTRACT: Understanding the relationship between output and unemployment (Okun's law) is important for policymakers, particularly during crises. One of the aspects of Okun's law that is commonly examined during crises is the structural stability and behavior of Okun's law over the business cycle. While this issue has been addressed empirically in developed countries, little is known about it in developing countries such as South Africa. Hence, this study examines the structural stability and behavior of Okun's law over the business cycle in South Africa. This study adopts both the difference and gap methods of formalizing Okun's law to implement its objectives. The recursive rolling window method was used to test the structural stability of Okun's law over time. The behavior of Okun's law over the business cycle is examined using the Markov-switching regression method. This study was conducted using the data from 1994Q1 to 2021Q1. The results of this study show that Okun's law varies over the business cycle because the response of unemployment to economic expansion is quite different from that of economic contraction. Okun's law holds during economic expansion but fails to hold during an economic recession. Evidence from this study also reveals that the coefficients of Okun's law vary over time. For instance, in the case of the difference method, Okun's coefficients range from 0.063 to 1.221 in absolute terms. For the gap method, especially when the H-P filtering method is applied, Okun's coefficients range from 0.509 to 9.412 in absolute terms. In summary, the findings from this study suggest that cyclical unemployment responds more significantly to cyclical output growth than the response of changes in unemployment to changes in output. In addition, this study proves that Okun's law is unstable over time in South Africa. These findings imply a high degree of variability between the labor and goods markets in the country. Hence, policies must be designed to harmonize the divergence between the two markets. This will require the implementation of macroeconomic policies such as fiscal and monetary policies. From a fiscal policy perspective, the government should reduce taxes or provide tax holidays to firms. The interest rate should be set low in the case of monetary policy.

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15

Sakib, Arfanul Ibna Mustafa. "Is Okun’s Law Valid in Bangladesh? A Time Series Analysis." South Asia Economic Journal 24, no. 2 (2023): 137–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/13915614231198283.

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Using the data from 1991 to 2019, this study attempts to verify Okun’s law by utilizing both ‘The difference and the dynamic versions’ of Okun’s law in Bangladesh and tries to find the value of Okun’s coefficient. The autoregressive-distribution lag (ARDL) bounds test is applied to determine the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables, and then the ordinary least squares (OLS) approach is used to estimate the findings. The findings show that Okun’s coefficient is –0.058 for the difference version of Okun’s law, which is statistically insignificant. In addition, for the dynamic version of Okun’s law, findings show that the effect of the ‘immediate past economic growth rate’ on ‘current change in the unemployment rate’ is 0.15, and it is statistically insignificant too. However, the effect of the ‘current economic growth rate’ on ‘current change in the unemployment rate’ is –0.22, and it is statistically significant at 10% significance level. In both versions of Okun’s law, R2 values, F-statistic and cumulative sum of squares show the instability of the models. Due to statistically insignificant coefficients and model instability, it can be concluded that Okun’s law is invalid in Bangladesh. JEL Codes: E24, C22, B23, C87

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16

Chuttoo, Usha Devi. "Effect of Economic Growth on Unemployment and Validity of Okun’s Law in Mauritius." Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12, no. 2 (2020): 231–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0974910119886934.

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This study examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in Mauritius. The methodology adopted for this study is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration test, ARDL error-correction model (ARDL-ECM) using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach and Okun’s law-gap version. ARDL-ECM estimates the long-run and short-run relationship between economic growth and unemployment. The validity of Okun’s law is tested in the Mauritian context and Okun’s coefficient is thereby estimated. The results obtained from the tests show that both in the long run and short run, there is a negative cointegration between economic growth and unemployment, but it is not statistically significant. Whereas, the result of Okun’s law-gap version shows that Okun’s law is indeed valid in the small economy of Mauritius. From the Okun’s coefficient obtained, it is concluded that 4 percent change in gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate changes unemployment rate by 1 percent in the opposite direction in Mauritius.

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17

Ball, Laurence M., Daniel Leigh, and Prakash Loungani. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?" IMF Working Papers 13, no. 10 (2013): i. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475574265.001.

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18

Gordon, Robert J. "Okun's Law and Productivity Innovations." American Economic Review 100, no. 2 (2010): 11–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.11.

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19

Kurosaka, Yoshio. "Okun's Law and Employment Adjustment." Japanese Economy 39, no. 2 (2012): 87–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/jes1097-203x390204.

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20

Perman, Roger, Gaetan Stephan, and Christophe Tavéra. "Okun's Law-a Meta-analysis." Manchester School 83, no. 1 (2014): 101–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/manc.12057.

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21

Freeman, Donald G. "Regional tests of Okun's law." International Advances in Economic Research 6, no. 3 (2000): 557–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02294972.

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22

BALL, LAURENCE, DANIEL LEIGH, and PRAKASH LOUNGANI. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 49, no. 7 (2017): 1413–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12420.

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23

Singh, Manhar, and Ibrahim Nurudeen. "Does Okun’s Law Hold for China? Some Empirical Evidence." BRICS Journal of Economics 3, no. 3 (2022): 173–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/brics-econ.3.e95672.

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This paper seeks to estimate the applicability of Okun’s law to the situation in China between 1991 and 2020. A defining and most significant feature of this paper is that China’s unemployment rate has been proxied by youth unemployment and urban unemployment. The stochastic properties test reveals that all the three variables follow I(1) process. The paper uses this knowledge to build data generating process (DGP), which is an outstanding contribution to international research into the steady state growth. Many researchers have pointed out that the poor countries catch up faster and, consequently, their growth rate should have a trend component to it. The applied regression model has proxied the trend when estimating the operation of the Okun’s law. The inclusion of trend, strongly factual, is accounted for and reveals that Okun’s law is valid for China. Apart from the OLS estimator for testing the Okun’s law, the generalized method of moment estimator has also been used as another estimator with the first lag of both unemployment and GDP as instrumental variables. Empirical evidence supports the proposition that Okun’s law is indeed valid in the case of China contrary to the conclusion of some studies.

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24

Knoester, Anthonie. "Okun’s law revisited." Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 122, no. 4 (1986): 657–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02707853.

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25

Liu, Yibo. "Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis from 1990 to 2022." Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 192, no. 1 (2025): 134–42. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2025.bl24174.

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This study analyzes the relationship between unemployment rate and economic development in different regions of the world by observing global data from 1990 to 2022, and analyzes the applicability of Okun's law in different regions. Using a classification comparative analysis method, 126 countries are divided into three types of economies: poor countries, middle-income countries, and developed countries based on per capita GDP. The study finds that: among the 15 typical countries selected, Okun's law is significantly established in developed countries and emerging economies (middle-income group), but only a few cases in the poor country group conform to this law. Further analysis shows that the widespread informal employment, agricultural economy dominance and statistical system defects in developing countries constitute the main mechanism for the failure of Okun's law. The study predicts that the substitution effect brought about by the popularization of artificial intelligence technology may lead to further failure of Okun's law in the short term, and the applicability of traditional Okun's law will be constrained by more and more complex factors in the future. These findings emphasize that countries and governments need to solve the unemployment problem that may be caused by artificial intelligence in the future, use artificial intelligence (AI) to assist people in improving productivity, and address people's concerns that AI may cause unemployment.

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26

Nasir, Syahira, Salwaty Jamaludin, Sharul Shahida Shakrein Safian, Nazurah Abdul Malek, and Muhammad Ridzuan Abdul Aziz. "Revisiting Okun's Law: Evidence from Malaysia." Information Management and Business Review 16, no. 3(I)S (2024): 551–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v16i3(i)s.4082.

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Okun’s Law explains an inverse relationship between unemployment and GDP. To re-examine the validity of Okun’s Law to the Malaysian economy through the period of 1988 until 2021, this paper employed the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach with several diagnostic tests. The findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between GDP and unemployment. The control variables - population, inflation rate, and FDI also significantly affect unemployment. While the country's GDP and inflation rate have a negative relationship with unemployment, population and FDI have a positive relationship with unemployment in Malaysia. Therefore, Okun’s Law is valid in the case of Malaysia.

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27

Attfield, Clifford L. F., and Brian Silverstone. "Okun's law, cointegration and gap variables." Journal of Macroeconomics 20, no. 3 (1998): 625–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0164-0704(98)00076-7.

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28

Grant, Angelia L. "The Great Recession and Okun's law." Economic Modelling 69 (January 2018): 291–300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.002.

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29

Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina, and Ángel L. Martín-Román. "Self-employment and the Okun's law." Economic Modelling 77 (March 2019): 253–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.006.

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30

Othman, Kamarudin, and Muhamad Amirul Salehhin. "Exploring the Dynamics of Okun’s Law: Youth Unemployment and Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Economies." International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science VIII, no. X (2024): 450–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.47772/ijriss.2024.8100038.

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Objective This study examines the relationship between youth unemployment and economic growth in ASEAN-5 countries, assessing the relevance of Okun’s Law in developing economies. Methodology The analysis uses a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to study the short- and long-term effects of GDP growth, inflation, and other macroeconomic factors on youth unemployment. The panel data covers 1991 to 2022. Results The findings show a positive relationship between GDP growth and youth unemployment, differing from Okun’s Law expectations. Inflation also has a significant positive effect on youth unemployment. Labor market issues in ASEAN-5 limit the impact of economic growth on reducing youth unemployment. Conclusion The study suggests that Okun’s Law may not fully apply to ASEAN-5, as structural labor market problems, such as skill mismatches, hinder expected reductions in unemployment. The results indicate a need for targeted reforms to address labor market challenges in these economies.

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Huang, Gang, Ho-Chuan Huang, Xiaojian Liu, and Jiangang Zhang. "Endogeneity in Okun’s law." Applied Economics Letters 27, no. 11 (2019): 910–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2019.1646861.

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32

Christl, Michael, Monika Köppl-Turyna, and Dénes Kucsera. "Okun’s Law in Austria." DANUBE: Law and Economics Review 8, no. 2 (2017): 97–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/danb-2017-0007.

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AbstractWe estimate the classic and the dynamic variant of Okun’s law for the Austrian labor market. We find that, for recent periods, the growth rate necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate equals 2.8 percent. Moreover, we find that the rate has been growing in recent quarters due to the increasing labor force size and the effects of the crisis. The latest prediction of the employment threshold lies above 3 percent, much above forecasted GDP growth up to 2017.

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Prachowny, Martin F. J. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates." Review of Economics and Statistics 75, no. 2 (1993): 331. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2109440.

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HANUSCH, MAREK. "JOBLESS GROWTH? OKUN'S LAW IN EAST ASIA." Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 04, no. 03 (2013): 1350014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993313500142.

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Was economic growth in East Asia jobless? An analysis of Okun's Law in eight countries between 1997 and 2011 suggests that it was not. However, there is considerable variation across countries. Generally, the effect of growth on employment magnifies in more flexible labor markets. Yet even under tight labor regulation, economic growth affects employment, especially in its composition. Agricultural employment moves counter-cyclically, as opposed to nonagricultural employment. The effect is particularly pronounced in periods of economic crisis, suggesting that agriculture serves as a shock-absorber for workers laid off in the industrial sector. Isolating nonagricultural employment reveals a stronger relationship between growth and job creation.

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35

Guisinger, Amy Y., Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, Michael T. Owyang, and Tara M. Sinclair. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law." Regional Science and Urban Economics 68 (January 2018): 239–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.11.005.

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36

Boďa, Martin, and Mariana Považanová. "Okun's Law in the Visegrád Group Countries." Europe-Asia Studies 71, no. 4 (2019): 608–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2019.1598936.

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37

Russnak, Jan, Georg Stadtmann, and Lilli Zimmermann. "Does Okun's law suffer from COVID-19?" Economics and Business Letters 12, no. 2 (2023): 165–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.17811/ebl.12.2.2023.165-171.

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We analyse the effect of COVID-19 on the Okun's law relationship for several EU countries and the US. Results are based on regressions and a systematic DF-Beta analysis. Our results indicate that the year 2020 is an outlier in the Okun relationship. However, the direction of change is different in the European countries compared to the US.

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38

Zunaida, Rosita Alfiansyah, and Mulyo Hendarto Robertus. "Hubungan Antara Produk Domestik Regional Bruto dan Pengangguran di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Tahun 2011-2020." Diponegoro Journal of Economics 11, no. 3 (2024): 202–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/djoe.34968.

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Labor is one of the indicators used to see the development and economic conditions of a region. Economic growth and the growth of the Labor Force are traditionally considered as one of the positive factors that spur economic growth. Central Java Province is one of the provinces in Indonesia which in 2020 through the 2020 Population Census has a total population of 36,516,035 people, occupying the third position among the provinces in Indonesia with the highest population. With the population increasing every year, the number of unemployed also increases because the labor force cannot be absorbed into the available jobs. The value of labor absorbed in an economic sector can describe the workforce that is included in the labor force that is able to be absorbed by economic sectors. The relationship between GRDP and unemployment is explained through Okun's Law. Okun's law states that for every 2 percent decrease in GRDP related to potential GRDP, the unemployment rate increases by about 1 percent so it can be concluded that the unemployment rate has a negative relationship with GRDP growth.The method used in this study is panel data regression method using the REM model. The data used in this study is data on the GDP and unemployment of Central Java Province in 2011-2020.The result of this research is that the GRDP variable has a positive relationship to the unemployment variable. This is not in line with Okun's Law which explains that the relationship between GRDP and unemployment has a negative relationship. So it can be concluded that Okun's Law cannot be applied in cases in Central Java Province. Keywords: GRDP, unemployment, Okun's Law, Random Effect Model (REM)

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39

Daly, Mary C., John G. Fernald, Òscar Jordà, and Fernanda Nechio. "Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly." National Institute Economic Review 228 (May 2014): R58—R64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011422800106.

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This note examines labour market performance across countries through the lens of Okun's Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun's Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labour market policies in response to the global demand shock.

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Sasongko, Gatot, Niken Artanti, Andrian Huruta, and Cheng-Wen Lee. "Reexamination of Okun's law: Empirical analysis from Panel Granger Causality." Industrija 48, no. 4 (2020): 63–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/industrija48-29455.

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This study aims to confirm the existence of Okun's coefficients in Indonesia. Authors conducted panel data of 34 provinces in Indonesia for the period from 2014 to 2019, obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data were analyzed by using the panel data model and Panel Granger Causality. The Panel Granger causality analysis results show that there was one-way causality between the economic growth and the unemployment. It was caused by several influencing factors, such as education level, population, and employment opportunities. Based on the Fixed Effect Model and Panel Granger Causality results, authors conclude that Okun's Law has not been proven for 34 provinces in Indonesia.

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Elhorst, J. Paul, and Silvia Emili. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law." Regional Science and Urban Economics 93 (March 2022): 103756. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2021.103756.

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Hutengs, O., and G. Stadtmann. "Age effects in Okun's law within the Eurozone." Applied Economics Letters 20, no. 9 (2013): 821–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2012.750416.

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Weber, Christian E., and James E. West. "Functional form in regression models of Okun's law." Applied Economics Letters 3, no. 9 (1996): 607–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/135048596356069.

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Huang, Ho-Chuan (River), and Chih-Chuan Yeh. "Okun's law in panels of countries and states." Applied Economics 45, no. 2 (2011): 191–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.597725.

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de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, and Diego S. P. de Oliveira. "Firms' confidence and Okun's law in OECD countries." Economic Modelling 78 (May 2019): 98–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.08.015.

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Nebot, César, Arielle Beyaert, and José García-Solanes. "New insights into the nonlinearity of Okun's law." Economic Modelling 82 (November 2019): 202–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.005.

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Goto, Eiji, and Constantin Bürgi. "Sectoral Okun's law and cross-country cyclical differences." Economic Modelling 94 (January 2021): 91–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.08.016.

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Rafli, Muhammad Raihan, Nurhafiyanisa Nurhafiyanisa, Mona Khairida Syafa, and Lisda Aisyah. "Okun’s Law: Analisis Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Kabupaten Banjar Ditinjau dari Perspektif Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi." Jurnal Bisnis, Manajemen, dan Ekonomi 5, no. 1 (2024): 12–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.47747/jbme.v5i1.1595.

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Unemployment is one of the main problems that is very influential and is also affected by several factors that are interrelated with each other and have a close relationship with the unemployment rate; this is because the working population contributes to the production of goods and services. Based on data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics, it was found that in the 2018-2021 period, there was a positive relationship between economic growth and open unemployment, and there were doubts due to the rejection of previous research results, so it is possible to analyze the level of open unemployment in Banjar Regency in terms of the rate of economic growth in 2017-2022 using the Okun's Law theory approach. This research uses a quantitative method with time series analysis using simple linear regression analysis to obtain Okun's coefficient. The results found that economic growth has no significant negative effect on the unemployment rate. In addition, the insignificant value of Okun's coefficient indicates a negatively unresponsive unemployment rate in Kabupaten Banjar, and there is an insignificant negative relationship between economic growth and the open unemployment rate. Therefore, Okun's law theory is proven not to apply in the economy of Kabupaten Banjar.

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Ziegenbein, Alexander. "Macroeconomic shocks and Okun’s Law." Economics Letters 202 (May 2021): 109826. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109826.

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Guisinger, Amy Y., and Tara M. Sinclair. "Okun’s Law in real time." International Journal of Forecasting 31, no. 1 (2015): 185–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.002.

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