Academic literature on the topic 'On-line business'

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the first-line manager-academic (FLMA) role against a guiding hypothesis that “The first-line manager-academic role is not clearly defined or understood; there is great variety of practice and of recognition of the role across the business school sector”. Design/methodology/approach – A descriptive, deductive approach through three linked (internet) surveys of deans of UK business schools, FLMAs in UK business schools and UK university human resource directors. Findings – The FLMA role in UK business schools is important to organizational effectiveness, personal development and career progression yet is poorly defined and supported, inconsistently enacted and perceived. FLMAs struggle to balance academic and management demands, with line management a particular issue and HR support and development systems are inadequate. Differences between chartered “old” and statutory “new” UK universities provide an additional layer of complexity. Research limitations/implications – FLMA roles need to be better defined and FLMAs better supported to ensure that FLMAs are effective in role contributing to organizational performance and personal development. Practical implications – The paper throws light on a neglected aspect of management in UK business schools that has potential value for university HR directors, university managers and business school deans. Originality/value – First empirical study into the role of the first-line manager academic in UK business schools.

With the increasingly ubiquitous nature of social networks and Cloud computing, users are starting to explore new ways to interact with and exploit these developing paradigms. Social networks reflect real world relationships that allow users to share information and form connections, essentially creating dynamic virtual communities. By leveraging the pre-established trust formed through friend relationships within a social network “Social Clouds” can be realized, which enable friends to share resources within the context of a social network. The creation of Social Clouds gives rise to new business models through collaboration within social networks. In this paper, the authors describe such business models and discuss their impact.

A business model is a key tool for companies and their employees to achieve market success. It can be used by healthcare providers, though this is not a common practice. While the number of publications about business models is growing, there is no universal description of a model which can be used by hospitals. The purpose of this article is to present a new business model on the healthcare market, launching of which will be accompanied by an adjustment of the value linkage and aims to generate a sustainable competitive advantage. This proposal for a business model is based on the analysis of business models available in the literature for healthcare providers and of business models for service companies. The business model proposed serves as a main key to achieving market success by entities and their employees. The healthcare providers delivering medical services through digital technologies improve communication between doctors and patients, employees of the healthcare services and stakeholders. These technologies increase patients’ quality of life and have a special meaning to increase their overall health. The digital business model provides increased values to the patients which manifests itself in service reliability information and customer focus.

Mestrado em Gestão/MBA<br>A Internet é uma excelente forma de acompanhar os mercados financeiros, assim como um meio privilegiado para investir. O Investimento on-line em Portugal e no resto do mundo, tem conquistado cada vez mais adeptos. As transacções via Internet não têm parado de aumentar, esta é só uma das várias formas possíveis de dar ordens de bolsa. A Internet democratizou o acesso à Bolsa, tornando-a um fenómeno global, trouxe um sentimento de liberdade dado que hoje em dia a informação circula, o que não ocorria anteriormente. O estudo em análise permitiu confirmar a existência de factores que contribuíram para o sucesso da bolsa on-line em Portugal.<br>The Internet is an excellent form to follow the financial markets, as well as a privileged way to invest. The Investment on-line in the financial markets in Portugal and in the rest of the world has conquered each time more supporters. Transactions through the Internet have continued to increase; this is just one of several possible ways to give stock market orders. The Internet democratized the access to the stock market, transforming it in a global phenomenon, brought a given feeling of freedom that nowadays the information circulates, something that didn´t occur previously. The study in analysis allows the confirmation of the existence of factors that had contributed for the success of the stock market on-line in Portugal.

Understanding how firms gain competitive advantage is perhaps the central question faced by strategy researchers (Rouse and Daellenbach, 1999; Powell, 2001). An examination of competitive advantage within the context of new markets presents an important and interesting dimension of this problem. It offers the opportunity to examine the potential for different types of entrant to establish competitive advantage. While competitive advantage in new markets has been addressed from a number of different theoretical perspectives, the suggestion here is that a resource-based conceptual lens can better explain the nature of the competitive challenge facing firms. A theoretical model of competitive advantage in new markets is developed, which highlights the importance of a firm's resource and capability endowments at the time of market entry, although it is argued that the main challenge faced by firms is the ability to adapt, where this refers to a firm's ability to develop the capabilities that are critical for success in new markets. Empirical research is carried out in respect of two UK-based on-line sectors, the Internet Service Provider sector and the online broking sector. The results of the survey research provide further evidence and support for the role of initial endowments of resources and capabilities at the time of new market entry, while the main findings of the case study research develop theory in respect of capability development in both new and established firms, suggesting that the process of capability development is itself an evolutionary one.

La seguente tesi ha lo scopo di presentare il lavoro svolto all'interno dell’azienda Engineering Ingegneria Informatica S.p.a durante il tirocinio formativo, della durata di circa quattro mesi. Il lavoro effettuato ha l'obiettivo di analizzare e studiare uno strumento di Business Intelligence (SpagoBI) per integrarlo nel progetto della cartella clinica informatizzata dei medici di medicina generale di base (Cartella SOLE). L'aggiunta dello strumento rende disponibile ai medici alcune funzionalità di statistica, utilizzabili al fine di semplificarne e supportarne il processo decisionale.

Mestrado em Gestão de Sistemas de Informação<br>Com a crescente importância e uso da internet nos dias de hoje, é fulcral as empresas acompanharem esse rumo e aderirem a plataformas que possibilitem o comércio eletrónico, sob pena de, se não o fizerem, ser muito complicado subsistir num mundo que está a ficar cada vez mais global, onde o outro lado do mundo está à distância de um "click". Como tal, o comércio eletrónico deve ser visto como uma oportunidade para o negócio crescer e não o contrário, pois permite acompanhar as necessidades dos consumidores, através das tecnologias mais atuais e ter um feedback muito mais rápido face ao comércio tradicional. Este tipo de comércio permite também ao cliente eliminar algumas barreiras entre o produtor/fornecedor e o cliente final, servindo de certo modo para uma desintermediação do ciclo do produto. Dentro da vertente dos serviços on-line foram testadas quatro hipóteses sobre a aceitação e as vicissitudes dos jogos on-line. Foi pertinente entender se o efeito de rede, a utilidade esperada, o divertimento esperado e o enquadramento social são fatores relevantes no que diz respeito à adoção dos jogos on-line, através da realização de questionários e respetiva análise. Como tal, foi realizado um levantamento dos modelos de negócios existentes no mercado dos jogos em particular, e de que modo é feito o relacionamento dos jogadores consoante os diferentes tipos de jogos existentes. Os resultados obtidos indicam que o efeito de rede, bem como o divertimento esperado são fatores essenciais no que diz respeito à escolha de um jogo on-line.<br>With the importance and use of the internet growing nowadays, it is crucial for the companies to follow that growing path and join the platforms that enables e-commerce, otherwise it can be very complicated to survive as a company in a world that is becoming increasingly global, where the other side of the world is just a "click" away. Therefore, e-commerce should be seen as an opportunity to increase the company performance and not the opposite, it gives the advantage to be aware of consumer's needs through the latest technologies and access to an earlier feedback compared to the traditional trade. This type of commerce allows the client to obliterate some barriers between the manufacturer/supplier and the final consumer, playing the role of disintermediation of the product cycle. In online services perspective, were tested four hypotheses about the acceptance and the vicissitudes of online games. It became relevant to study if the network effect, the expected utility, the expected hedonism and social environment were main factors regarding online games adoption, through surveys and their analysis. Therefore, it became imperative to study the business models, in particular the online game market, and how the players related according to the different types of games. The results show that the network effects as well as the expected hedonism are essential factors regarding the online game choice.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001.<br>ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Online sport ventures seem promising and sure of success, if one considers reports on the success of on-line sport ventures and the size of the market such a venture attracts. These reports however, relate mostly to the United States and are based on a number of assumptions which might not ring true in the South African environment. Further investigation is required before committing resources to an Internet sport venture in South Africa. In this thesis the viability of such a business venture in South Africa is tested according to a well-structured model. The literature study reflects investigation into some specific Internet Business Drivers as identified, which can be related to sport in South Africa as well as investigation into typical problems faced by Internet Business Ventures. The Sports Information and Science Agency (1998) commissioned research to evaluate the impact of sport on the South African economy. Eskom (2000) commissioned research to analyse the lifestyle of South Africans in general. This useful information as well as other research will also be analysed and discussed regarding relevance to an Internet Sport Venture. The Venture Opportunity Screening Guide (Timmons, 1999: 117-156) provides a structured model to evaluate the viability of business ventures taking all available aspects into account. The model is based on a number of screening criteria used by venture capitalists, entrepreneurs and investors to screen business ventures. This model will be used as the foundation of this thesis to research a final conclusion on the viability of an Internet Sport Venture in South Africa.<br>AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit lyk asof Internet Sport ondernemings baie potensiaal het. Dit lyk asof die meeste verslae wat handel oor sulke ondernemings verwys na suksesse in Amerika. Die gevolgtrekkings gemaak geld nie noodwendig vir Suid Afrika nie. Verdere ondersoeke is noodsaaklik voordat die navorsing as toepaslik tot die Suid Afrikaanse milieu geïdentifiseer kan word. Die lewensvatbaarheid van 'n soortgelyke onderneming in Suid Afrika word in hierdie tesis ondersoek deur middel van 'n goed gestruktureerde model. Die literatuurstudie som navorsing in verband met spesifieke toonaangewende Internet ondernemings op, wat van toepassing is op die Suid Afrikaanse situasie. Tipiese probleme ondervind deur Internet ondernemings word ook bespreek. Navorsing in verband met die uitwerking van sport op die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie is aangevra deur Die Sport Informasie en Wetenskap Agentskap (1998). Navorsing aangaande die lewenstyl van Suid-Afrikaners is ook aangevra deur Eskom (2000). Data van hierdie en soortgelyke navorsing word geanaliseer en bespreek om die impak daarvan op 'n Suid Afrikaanse Internet Sport Onderneming te ondersoek. Die "Venture Opportunity Screening Guide" (Timmons, 1999: 117-156) verskaf 'n gestruktureerde model om die potensiaal van besigheids-geleenthede te ondersoek. Die model is gebaseer op die evaluerings-kriteria wat gebruik word deur finansiers, entrepeneurs, en beleggers om die potensiaal van geleenthede te ondersoek. Die model sal dien as basis van die ondersoek in hierdie tesis waarvan 'n finale slotsom in verband met die potensiaal van sodanige onderneming gemaak kan word.

Mestrado em Línguas e Relações Empresariais<br>This project evaluates the role of languages and intercultural competence in the new and growing sports business, namely one of the biggest sports events real-time data providers – Runningball. The company provides over 30 000 football games a year in more than 70 countries worldwide as well as basketball, volleyball, and ice-hockey games. The dissertation investigates how multicultural diversity is accepted and received in everyday work at this new type of sports data business and what role the languages play in helping to provide real-time data while using the second or third language to get the best instant results. Dimensions of business are explored, and data analysis made in order to realize how the company runs its business and how languages have become a crucial asset of Runningball. The field study reflected on the role of a lingua franca in the multilingual society of today. Furthermore it has been revealed in a field study that not only English has taken the place of the most important language in international business, but a mixture of various languages is the key to greater success.<br>O projeto apresentado para esta dissertação teve como principal objectivo analisar a influência global de várias línguas e a capacidade de mediar a comunicação intercultural num mercado desportivo on-line em ascenção. O objetivo foi alcançado em parceria com uma das maiores empresas fornecedoras de dados de eventos desportivos em tempo real - Runningball. Esta empresa oferece um enorme portofólio de eventos desportivos, sendo o futebol a modalidade com maior oferta - 30 000 jogos de futebol anualmente em mais de 70 paises no mundo inteiro - seguindo-se outros eventos de várias modalidades como os de basquetebol, de voleibol, de hóquei no gelo, de snooker entre outros. Nesta dissertação constatou-se que a diversidade linguística é aceite e bem recebida no mundo desportivo e os eventos desportivos multiculturais. Observou-se também que a comunicação através de diversas línguas exerce um papel de grande importâcia para obtenção rápida de dados em tempo real, ao contrário na utilização da língua nativa. Os outros aspectos foram alvo de estudo nesta dissertação tais como a avaliação da dimensão do negócio de eventos desportivos e a análise da obtenção de dados, de forma a compreender o funcionamento da empresa e como uma língua pode se uma mais valia e determinante na Runningball. Assim sendo, conclui-se que a língua franca exerce um papel determinante na sociedade actual e que o Inglês não só deixou de ser a língua mais influente no mundo dos negócios internacionais. A chave para o sucesso de qualquer negócio multinacional está em possuir uma panóplia linguistica que abrange qualquer mercado e as necessidades dos consumidores.<br>Mağistra darbs novērtē valodu lomu sporta biznesā, konkrētāk lielāko momenta sporta datu nodrošināšanas uzņēmumu - Runningball. Kompānija piedāvā vairāk kā 30.000 futbolspēļu gadā no vairāk nekā 70 pasaules valstīm, kā arī ievērojamu skaitu basketbola, volejbola, hokeja, kā arī biljarda spēļu rezultātus. Galvenais disertācijas darba uzdevums ir izpētīt kā multikulturālā daudzveidība tiek pieņemta un uzņemta ikdienas darbā un kādu lomu ieņem valodas, lai nodrošinātu sporta datus notiekošos tai pašā mirklī, ņemot vērā, ka izmantotā valoda ir otrā vai trešā lietotāja valoda. Kā arī darba gaitā tiek izanalizēti: biznesa apmēri, datu analīze, kas atklāj kā kompānija pārvalda savu uzņēmumu un kā valodas ieņem vienu no galvenajām lomām uzdevumu veikšanā kompānijā Runningball. Pētījuma daļa atklāja kādu lomu ieņem lingua franca šīs dienas daudzvalodīgajā pasaulē. Turklāt atklājās, ka ne tikai angļu valodai ir galvenā loma starptautisko darījumu nozarē, bet gan daudzvalodīgums tiek saskatīts kā visvērtīgākais kompānijas ieguvums un galvenā veiksmes atslēga.

Mestrado em Gestão e Estratégia Industrial<br>Nos últimos anos, o campo do Design e os profissionais desta área têm sido reconhecidos como impulsionadores e facilitadores de inovação, possuindo consequentemente um papel relevante nas atividades-chave das empresas, na sua performance e competitividade. A complexa natureza do Design continua a criar obstáculos à sua compreensão e aos seus resultados. Investigações revelam que diferentes empresas têm diferentes noções do potencial valor do Design e que a sua perceção e utilização (design maturity) pode desempenhar um papel decisivo na forma como as atividades de Design são praticadas na empresa. Esta pesquisa pretende investigar e contribuir para a melhoria da compreensão, relativamente à perceção e utilização do Design nas empresas Portuguesas. Para tal, o atual nível de design maturity das empresas Portuguesas orientadas para a Inovação, foi descrito utilizando a abordagem do Danish Design Ladder (DDL). A estratégia de inquérito foi aplicada através de um questionário online autoadministrado, baseado no inquérito do De.:SID a um grupo de 226 PME orientadas para a inovação - Rede PME Inovação COTEC da COTEC Portugal. Foi alcançada uma taxa de resposta de 33% e algumas conclusões interessantes foram extraídas sobre a importância que o Design pode ter num contexto empresarial. A principal conclusão é que a design maturity dos respondentes corresponde ao terceiro estágio do DDL: Design como Processo. Adicionalmente os dados sugerem que existe uma diferença entre a perceção das empresas e a real importância e utilização do papel do Design no seu negócio, revelando alguma falta de conhecimento e experiência na sua aplicação.<br>In recent years, the Design field and professional designers have been acknowledged as a driver and enabler of innovation, and thus important to key business activities and to firms' performance and competitiveness. The complex nature of Design still raises obstacles to the comprehension of its activity and results. Research revealed that different firms can have different understanding of Design's value potential and that their perception and usage (design maturity) might play a decisive role in the way design activity is practiced in a firm. This research intended to investigate and provide insights regarding Portuguese business firms' perception and usage of Design. For that purpose, the current Design Maturity level of Portuguese innovation-driven firms was described, using the Danish Design Ladder (DDL) framework. A survey strategy was applied, by a self-administered on-line questionnaire based on the De.:SID survey, to a group of 226 innovation-driven SMEs - COTEC Portugal's Rede PME Inovação. A response rate of 33% was achieved and interesting insights were found about the importance Design can have in a business context. The main conclusion is that respondents' design maturity corresponds to the DDL's third stage: Design as Process. Moreover, data suggests a difference between firm's perception and the actual importance and usage of the Design role in their business, which reveals a certain lack of knowledge and experience in working with Design.

Since the widespread use of computers in business and industry, a lot of research has been done on the design of computer systems to support the decision making task. Decision support systems support decision makers in solving unstructured decision problems by providing tools to help understand and analyze decision problems to help make better decisions. Artificial intelligence is concerned with creating computer systems that perform tasks that would require intelligence if performed by humans. Much research has focused on using artificial intelligence to develop decision support systems to provide intelligent decision support. Knowledge discovery from databases, centers around data mining algorithms to discover novel and potentially useful information contained in the large volumes of data that is ubiquitous in contemporary business organizations. Data mining deals with large volumes of data and tries to develop multiple views that the decision maker can use to study this multi-dimensional data. On-line analytical processing (OLAP) provides a mechanism that supports multiple views of multi-dimensional data to facilitate efficient analysis. These two techniques together can provide a powerful mechanism for the analysis of large quantities of data to aid the task of making decisions. This research develops a model for the real time process control of a large manufacturing process using an integrated approach of data mining and on-line analytical processing. Data mining is used to develop models of the process based on the large volumes of the process data. The purpose is to provide prediction and explanatory capability based on the models of the data and to allow for efficient generation of multiple views of the data so as to support analysis on multiple levels. Artificial neural networks provide a mechanism for predicting the behavior of nonlinear systems, while decision trees provide a mechanism for the explanation of states of systems given a set of inputs and outputs. OLAP is used to generate multidimensional views of the data and support analysis based on models developed by data mining. The architecture and implementation of the model for real-time process control based on the integration of data mining and OLAP is presented in detail. The model is validated by comparing results obtained from the integrated system, OLAP-only and expert opinion. The system is validated using actual process data and the results of this verification are presented. A discussion of the results of the validation of the integrated system and some limitations of this research with discussion on possible future research directions is provided.

The thesis analyzes and proposes stance on how to implement self-service Business Intelligence solution in a company involved in online marketing. Analysis is focused on data sources, information needs in the company and research of suitable product to be implemented. Goal of the thesis is, based on the performed analysis, to propose actions needed for a successful implementation, and to demonstrate opportunities, that such an implementation may provide to the company.

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.