Relevant bibliographies by topics / Optimism bias in traffic forecast

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Academic literature on the topic 'Optimism bias in traffic forecast'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 8 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Optimism bias in traffic forecast"

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Bain, Robert. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts." Transportation 36, no. 5 (2009): 469–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-009-9199-7.

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Wong, M. H. Franco, and X. Frank Zhang. "CEO Optimism and Analyst Forecast Bias." Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 29, no. 3 (2014): 367–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0148558x14536185.

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DeJoy, David M. "The Optimism Bias and Traffic Safety." Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 31, no. 7 (1987): 756–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193128703100714.

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In this study, college students were asked to rate their overall accident likelihood, driving skill, and level of safety relative to other drivers. They also made comparative risk judgements for a variety of specific accident situations. Consistent with previous research, subjects perceived themselves as safer, more skillful, and less likely to be involved in an accident than other drivers. Optimism increased with driving experience, but was unrelated to age or sex. Substantial optimism was also evident in response to the specific accident situations, and further analysis indicated that the pe
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Eames, Michael, and Steven Glover. "Earnings Predictability And Broker-Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Bias." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 33, no. 6 (2017): 1285–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v33i6.10061.

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Scholars have reasoned that analysts issue optimistic forecasts to improve their access to managers’ private information when earnings are unpredictable. While this requires a managerial preference for analyst forecast optimism, the observed walk-down of analyst expectations to beatable forecasts is consistent with a managerial preference for pessimism in short-horizon forecasts. Using data from various sample periods, alternative model specifications, and various measures of earnings unpredictability, we find that pessimism, not optimism, in short-horizon forecasts is associated with increasi
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Herrmann, Donald R., Ole-Kristian Hope, and Wayne B. Thomas. "International Diversification and Forecast Optimism: The Effects of Reg FD." Accounting Horizons 22, no. 2 (2008): 179–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/acch.2008.22.2.179.

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SYNOPSIS: Research shows that analysts following companies with a higher portion of foreign operations provide more optimistic forecasts, presumably to maintain favorable relations with management and thereby obtain improved access to information. We examine the effect of the introduction of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) on analyst forecast bias for internationally diversified firms. We hypothesize that analysts’ incentives to issue optimistic forecasts for such firms should be reduced in the post-Reg FD era, because Reg FD prohibits firms from selectively disclosing management informati
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Haider, Imran, Nigar Sultana, Harjinder Singh, and Yeut Hong Tham. "CEO age and analysts forecast properties." Asian Review of Accounting 28, no. 1 (2019): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ara-02-2019-0054.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether there is an association between CEO age and analysts forecast properties (particularly forecast accuracy and bias/optimism). CEOs, having the central role in managing firms, can significantly influence the financial and non-financial decisions in an organisation. Furthermore, having been identified as key culprits in past major accounting scandals, it is also important to identify the CEO characteristics that affect financial reporting decisions. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the upper echelon theory on the relationship bet
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DeJoy, David M. "The optimism bias and traffic accident risk perception." Accident Analysis & Prevention 21, no. 4 (1989): 333–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(89)90024-9.

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Pandit, Kul Chandra. "Trading practice and Behavioral Biases of Individual Investors in Nepalese Stock Market." Nepalese Journal of Management Research 1 (January 31, 2021): 55–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/njmgtres.v1i0.37323.

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The paper was based on survey research design. There is significant association between experience group with herding bias and optimism bias and there is no significant association between experience group with investment decision bias, disposition effect bias, and overconfidence bias. Similarly there is significant association between trading frequency with herding bias, optimism bias, investment decision bias, disposition effect bias, and overconfidence bias. Heuristics may make investors overconfident as they overlook risks causing security price to move away from fundamentals. Investors te
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Peña, Victor Alberto, and Alina Gómez-Mejía. "Effect of heuristic anchoring and adjustment, and optimism bias, in stock market forecasts." Revista Finanzas y Política Económica 11, no. 2 (2020): 389–409. http://dx.doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10.

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Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financi
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Liu, Huimin, Canhui Jiang, Yan Liu, Marcel Hertogh, and Xue Lyu. "Optimism Bias Evaluation and Decision-Making Risk Forecast on Bridge Project Cost Based on Reference Class Forecasting: Evidence from China." Sustainability 10, no. 11 (2018): 3981. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10113981.

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The high uncertainty of megaproject results in increasing complexity in the decision-making and ultimately leads to different degrees of cost overrun and project delays. One of the critical reasons for cost overrun and delay is the optimism bias of decision makers. Although the previous literature has analyzed the cost overrun distribution of bridges, roads and other infrastructure projects, there is still a lack of research on how to make more reasonable decisions according to the cost overrun risk and cost-benefit theory by considering the expectation of cost overrun. Therefore, this paper f
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Optimism bias in traffic forecast"

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Hoque, Jawad Mahmud. "An Assessment of Historical Traffic Forecast Accuracy and Sources of Forecast Error." UKnowledge, 2019. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/79.

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Transportation infrastructure improvement projects are typically huge and have significant economic and environmental effects. Forecasts of demand of the facility in the form of traffic level help size the project as well as choose between several alternatives. Inaccuracy in these forecasts can thus have a great impact on the efficiency of the operational design and the benefits accrued from the project against the cost. Despite this understanding, evaluation of traffic forecast inaccuracy has been too few, especially for un-tolled roads in the United States. This study, part of a National Coo
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Núñez, Antonio. "Sources of Errors and Biases in Traffic Forecasts for Toll Road Concessions." Phd thesis, Université Lumière - Lyon II, 2007. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00331794.

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The objective of this thesis is to study the sources of discrepancy between the actual traffic in motorways under concession schemes and the traffic forecast ex-ante. The demand forecast for a specific project is the main variable influencing its realization. From a public sector perspective, socio-economic evaluations are driven by demand forecasts, which gives the basis for choose and hierarchy public projects in order to maximise social welfare. From a private sector perspective, traffic forecasts are the base of financial evaluation and toll setting.Despite its importance and the numerous
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Lu, Tsung-Hsien, and 呂宗弦. "CEO Optimism and Analyst Forecast Bias: Empirical Evidence from the US." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13894254715852531027.

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碩士<br>中原大學<br>財務金融研究所<br>105<br>This study examines the impact of optimistic CEOs’earnings predictions on analysts’ forecast bias in the United States from 1993 to 2015; the study also attempts to find the characteristics of firms exhibiting reductions in forecast bias. This study uses the definition of analyst forecast bias in Wong and Zang (2014) and that of optimistic CEO proxy variables in Jenner et al. (2016) and employs the I/B/E/S and Compustat databases to establish the main research objectives. Following Steve and Williams (2001), who revealed the presence of asymmetry sensitivity bet
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Book chapters on the topic "Optimism bias in traffic forecast"

1

Mesken, Jolieke, Marjan P. Hagenzieker, and Talib Rothengatter. "Effects of Emotions on Optimism Bias and Illusion of Control in Traffic." In Traffic and Transport Psychology. Elsevier, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-008044379-9/50172-2.

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Journal articles
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