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Journal articles on the topic 'Optimism bias in traffic forecast'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 8 February 2022

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1

Bain, Robert. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts." Transportation 36, no. 5 (2009): 469–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-009-9199-7.

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2

Wong, M. H. Franco, and X. Frank Zhang. "CEO Optimism and Analyst Forecast Bias." Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 29, no. 3 (2014): 367–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0148558x14536185.

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3

DeJoy, David M. "The Optimism Bias and Traffic Safety." Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 31, no. 7 (1987): 756–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193128703100714.

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In this study, college students were asked to rate their overall accident likelihood, driving skill, and level of safety relative to other drivers. They also made comparative risk judgements for a variety of specific accident situations. Consistent with previous research, subjects perceived themselves as safer, more skillful, and less likely to be involved in an accident than other drivers. Optimism increased with driving experience, but was unrelated to age or sex. Substantial optimism was also evident in response to the specific accident situations, and further analysis indicated that the pe

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4

Eames, Michael, and Steven Glover. "Earnings Predictability And Broker-Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Bias." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 33, no. 6 (2017): 1285–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v33i6.10061.

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Scholars have reasoned that analysts issue optimistic forecasts to improve their access to managers’ private information when earnings are unpredictable. While this requires a managerial preference for analyst forecast optimism, the observed walk-down of analyst expectations to beatable forecasts is consistent with a managerial preference for pessimism in short-horizon forecasts. Using data from various sample periods, alternative model specifications, and various measures of earnings unpredictability, we find that pessimism, not optimism, in short-horizon forecasts is associated with increasi

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5

Herrmann, Donald R., Ole-Kristian Hope, and Wayne B. Thomas. "International Diversification and Forecast Optimism: The Effects of Reg FD." Accounting Horizons 22, no. 2 (2008): 179–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/acch.2008.22.2.179.

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SYNOPSIS: Research shows that analysts following companies with a higher portion of foreign operations provide more optimistic forecasts, presumably to maintain favorable relations with management and thereby obtain improved access to information. We examine the effect of the introduction of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) on analyst forecast bias for internationally diversified firms. We hypothesize that analysts’ incentives to issue optimistic forecasts for such firms should be reduced in the post-Reg FD era, because Reg FD prohibits firms from selectively disclosing management informati

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6

Haider, Imran, Nigar Sultana, Harjinder Singh, and Yeut Hong Tham. "CEO age and analysts forecast properties." Asian Review of Accounting 28, no. 1 (2019): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ara-02-2019-0054.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether there is an association between CEO age and analysts forecast properties (particularly forecast accuracy and bias/optimism). CEOs, having the central role in managing firms, can significantly influence the financial and non-financial decisions in an organisation. Furthermore, having been identified as key culprits in past major accounting scandals, it is also important to identify the CEO characteristics that affect financial reporting decisions. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the upper echelon theory on the relationship bet

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7

DeJoy, David M. "The optimism bias and traffic accident risk perception." Accident Analysis & Prevention 21, no. 4 (1989): 333–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(89)90024-9.

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8

Pandit, Kul Chandra. "Trading practice and Behavioral Biases of Individual Investors in Nepalese Stock Market." Nepalese Journal of Management Research 1 (January 31, 2021): 55–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/njmgtres.v1i0.37323.

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The paper was based on survey research design. There is significant association between experience group with herding bias and optimism bias and there is no significant association between experience group with investment decision bias, disposition effect bias, and overconfidence bias. Similarly there is significant association between trading frequency with herding bias, optimism bias, investment decision bias, disposition effect bias, and overconfidence bias. Heuristics may make investors overconfident as they overlook risks causing security price to move away from fundamentals. Investors te

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9

Peña, Victor Alberto, and Alina Gómez-Mejía. "Effect of heuristic anchoring and adjustment, and optimism bias, in stock market forecasts." Revista Finanzas y Política Económica 11, no. 2 (2020): 389–409. http://dx.doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2019.11.2.10.

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Stock market forecasting is an important and challenging process that influences investment decisions. This paper presents an experimental design that aims to measure the influence of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic and optimism bias in these forecasts. The study was conducted using information from the S&P MILA Pacific Alliance Select financial index; this was presented to 670 students from the cities of Concepción (Chile), Cali (Colombia), and Lima (Peru). Data was collected and presented through an instrument that asked participants to make a forecast judgment of the said financi

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10

Liu, Huimin, Canhui Jiang, Yan Liu, Marcel Hertogh, and Xue Lyu. "Optimism Bias Evaluation and Decision-Making Risk Forecast on Bridge Project Cost Based on Reference Class Forecasting: Evidence from China." Sustainability 10, no. 11 (2018): 3981. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10113981.

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The high uncertainty of megaproject results in increasing complexity in the decision-making and ultimately leads to different degrees of cost overrun and project delays. One of the critical reasons for cost overrun and delay is the optimism bias of decision makers. Although the previous literature has analyzed the cost overrun distribution of bridges, roads and other infrastructure projects, there is still a lack of research on how to make more reasonable decisions according to the cost overrun risk and cost-benefit theory by considering the expectation of cost overrun. Therefore, this paper f

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11

Zhang, Jin, and Haeyoung Shin. "Are Analysts Overoptimistic about the Prospects of Sin Firms?" International Journal of Financial Research 8, no. 4 (2017): 99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v8n4p99.

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We investigate the association between the bias and accuracy of consensus analysts’ earnings forecasts and whether a firm is a sin firm or not. We measure analyst forecast bias as the difference between the consensus earnings forecast and the actual earnings, scaled by the stock price. We measure analyst forecast accuracy as the negative of the absolute value of the difference between the firms’ forecasted and actual earnings, scaled by the stock price. We find a positive association between the level of forecast optimism and sin firm membership. We find a negative association between the leve

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12

Agrawal, Anup, and Mark A. Chen. "Analyst Conflicts and Research Quality." Quarterly Journal of Finance 02, no. 02 (2012): 1250010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010139212500103.

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This paper examines whether the quality of stock analysts' forecasts is related to conflicts of interest from their employers' investment banking (IB) and brokerage businesses. We consider four aspects of forecast quality: accuracy, bias, and revision frequency of quarterly earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and relative optimism in long-term earnings growth (LTG) forecasts. Using a unique dataset that contains the annual revenue breakdown of analysts' employers among IB, brokerage, and other businesses, we uncover two main findings. First, accuracy and bias in quarterly EPS forecasts appear t

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13

Suh, Daniel Y., and Megan S. Ryerson. "Forecast to grow: Aviation demand forecasting in an era of demand uncertainty and optimism bias." Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 128 (August 2019): 400–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2019.06.016.

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14

Moriarty, Mark M. "Design Features of Forecasting Systems Involving Management Judgments." Journal of Marketing Research 22, no. 4 (1985): 353–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002224378502200401.

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A set of forecasting system design features is proposed to detect, measure, and reduce bias in forecasts and to determine the need for retention of forecasting methods used by an organization. The system is flexible enough to be incorporated into a variety of forecasting environments as part of a marketing control system. Use is made of several statistics that measure forms of forecasting bias including lack of time-series pattern recognition and over-optimism (over-pessimism). The system also uses a criterion for retention of a forecasting method that is based on composite forecasting model p

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15

Bouteska, Ahmed, and Boutheina Regaieg. "Psychology and behavioral finance." EuroMed Journal of Business 15, no. 1 (2019): 39–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/emjb-08-2018-0052.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to detect quantitatively the existence of anchoring bias among financial analysts on the Tunisian stock market. Both non-parametric and parametric methods are used. Design/methodology/approach Two studies have been conducted over the period 2010–2014. A first analysis is non-parametric, based on observations of the sign taking by the surprise of result announcement according to the evolution of earning per share (EPS). A second analysis uses simple and multiple linear regression methods to quantify the anchor bias. Findings Non-parametric results show that

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16

Raonic, Ivana, and Ali Sahin. "Do analysts understand accruals’ persistence? Evidence revisited." Journal of Applied Accounting Research 21, no. 1 (2019): 38–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jaar-07-2018-0103.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to revisit the question of whether analysts anticipate accruals’ predicted reversals (or persistence) of future earnings. Prior evidence documents that analysts who provide information to investors are over optimistic about firms with high working capital (WC) accruals. The authors propose that empirical models using WC accruals alone may be incomplete and hence not entirely appropriate to assess the level of analysts’ understanding of accruals. The authors argue that analysts’ optimism about WC accruals might not be due to their lack of sophistication, but

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17

Wong, M. H. Franco, and Frank Zhang. "CEO Optimism, Analyst Rationality, and Earnings Forecast Bias." SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.814085.

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18

Hui, Kai Wai, Alfred Zhu Liu, and Yao Zhang. "Management Forecast Optimism During Credit Watch and Credit Rating Agencies’ Disciplinary Role." Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, June 8, 2020, 0148558X2092272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0148558x20922721.

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This study investigates management forecast optimism and credit rating agencies’ role in disciplining opportunistic managerial disclosures in the setting of credit watch reviews. Our analysis shows that managers are generally more likely to issue earnings forecasts and to optimistically bias their forecasts during credit watch periods than in non-watch periods. However, their forecast optimism declines when the rating agency involved has a stronger incentive or ability to monitor, such as when it has low conflict of interest or less difficulty detecting bias in disclosures. In such cases, the

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19

Kwag, Seung-Woog (Austin). "Shareholder Protection And Forecast Bias." Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) 22, no. 2 (2011). http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v22i2.1434.

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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-justify: inter-ideograph; text-align: justify; margin: 0in 34.2pt 0pt 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">This research</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;">explores whether</span><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> shareholder protection</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-fareast-language: KO;"> influences analyst optimism and forecast accuracy in a global se

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20

Livingstone, Randall M. "Let’s Leave the Bias to the Mainstream Media: A Wikipedia Community Fighting for Information Neutrality." M/C Journal 13, no. 6 (2010). http://dx.doi.org/10.5204/mcj.315.

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Although I'm a rich white guy, I'm also a feminist anti-racism activist who fights for the rights of the poor and oppressed. (Carl Kenner)Systemic bias is a scourge to the pillar of neutrality. (Cerejota)Count me in. Let's leave the bias to the mainstream media. (Orcar967)Because this is so important. (CuttingEdge)These are a handful of comments posted by online editors who have banded together in a virtual coalition to combat Western bias on the world’s largest digital encyclopedia, Wikipedia. This collective action by Wikipedians both acknowledges the inherent inequalities of a user-controll

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