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1
Yan, Minlun. "Multigranulations Rough Set Method of Attribute Reduction in Information Systems Based on Evidence Theory." Journal of Applied Mathematics 2014 (2014): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/857186.
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Attribute reduction is one of the most important problems in rough set theory. However, from the granular computing point of view, the classical rough set theory is based on a single granulation. It is necessary to study the issue of attribute reduction based on multigranulations rough set. To acquire brief decision rules from information systems, this paper firstly investigates attribute reductions by combining the multigranulations rough set together with evidence theory. Concepts of belief and plausibility consistent set are proposed, and some important properties are addressed by the view of the optimistic and pessimistic multigranulations rough set. What is more, the multigranulations method of the belief and plausibility reductions is constructed in the paper. It is proved that a set is an optimistic (pessimistic) belief reduction if and only if it is an optimistic (pessimistic) lower approximation reduction, and a set is an optimistic (pessimistic) plausibility reduction if and only if it is an optimistic (pessimistic) upper approximation reduction.
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Mamedov, K., and N. Mamedli. "CONSTRUCTION OF LAGRANGE FUNCTION FORM IN AN INTERVAL PARTIAL (MIXED)- BOOLEAN PROGRAMMING PROBLEM." EurasianUnionScientists 6, no. 9(78) (2020): 46–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.31618/esu.2413-9335.2020.6.78.1022.
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In this paper the problem of partial (mixed) Boolean programming with interval initial data is considered. A majorizing function is constructed with respect to the objective function of the optimistic and pessimistic problems, respectively. Some properties of this function are proved. In particular, it is shown that the minimum values of the constructed function are not less than the optimistic and pessimistic values of the objective function, respectively
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Sharma, Anuraganand. "Optimistic Variants of Single-Objective Bilevel Optimization for Evolutionary Algorithms." International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Applications 19, no. 03 (2020): 2050020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1469026820500200.
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Single-objective bilevel optimization is a specialized form of constraint optimization problems where one of the constraints is an optimization problem itself. These problems are typically non-convex and strongly NP-Hard. Recently, there has been an increased interest from the evolutionary computation community to model bilevel problems due to its applicability in real-world applications for decision-making problems. In this work, a partial nested evolutionary approach with a local heuristic search has been proposed to solve the benchmark problems and have outstanding results. This approach relies on the concept of intermarriage-crossover in search of feasible regions by exploiting information from the constraints. A new variant has also been proposed to the commonly used convergence approaches, i.e., optimistic and pessimistic. It is called an extreme optimistic approach. The experimental results demonstrate the algorithm converges differently to known optimum solutions with the optimistic variants. Optimistic approach also outperforms pessimistic approach. Comparative statistical analysis of our approach with other recently published partial to complete evolutionary approaches demonstrates very competitive results.
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VESA, Lidia. "THE FUZZY OPTIMISTIC-REASONABLE-PESSIMISTIC INVENTORY MODEL." Annals of the University of Oradea. Economic Sciences 31, no. 31(1) (2022): 259–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.47535/1991auoes31(1)025.
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In inventory and production decision problems, decision makers are interested to identify the optimal inventory and production level. In a certain decision environment, the optimal inventory level could be determined through traditional inventory methods and the optimal ptoduction level could be determined through linear programming algorithms. In an uncertain decision environment, the traditional methods and algorithms can not provide efficient and relevant solutions for these levels, due to the vague and changing parameters. In this case it is neccesary to develop new methods and models that can deal with vague variables and provide optimal levels. In this paper, the optimal inventory and production levels are determined through a single model that uses fuzzy linear programming. This new model is Fuzzy Optimistic-Reasonable-Pessimistic Inventory Model. It has three scenario: optimistic, reasonable and pessimistic, that are defined through triangular fuzzy numbers. In this way, decision makers can deal with vague parameters. These scenarios help managers to divide the Fuzzy ORP Model into three sub-models, that can be easily solved through traditional Simplex Algorithms. Each sub-model provides a crisp solution for each scenario. The solutions forms the final fuzzy optimal solution. The Fuzzy PRO Inventory Model helps managers to identify three optimal levels and to rank them according to their evaluations. This is useful, also, in predictions, where the decision makers should predict different scenarios for the production process. The limit of this model is the definition of the variables and scenarios. This model consider that all values for all variables and coefficients have the same definition: the inferior limit is related to the optimistic sceanrio, the peak is represents the reasonable limit and the superior limit is related to the pessimistic scenario. In real problem, the decision variables could have different definition than coefficients. The inferior limit of the cost is related to the optimistic scenario, but the superior limit of the production level can be related to the optimistic scenario. There are different representations for the scenarios.
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Zhai, Yuanzhao, Yiying Li, Zijian Gao, et al. "Optimistic Model Rollouts for Pessimistic Offline Policy Optimization." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 38, no. 15 (2024): 16678–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v38i15.29607.
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Model-based offline reinforcement learning (RL) has made remarkable progress, offering a promising avenue for improving generalization with synthetic model rollouts. Existing works primarily focus on incorporating pessimism for policy optimization, usually via constructing a Pessimistic Markov Decision Process (P-MDP). However, the P-MDP discourages the policies from learning in out-of-distribution (OOD) regions beyond the support of offline datasets, which can under-utilize the generalization ability of dynamics models. In contrast, we propose constructing an Optimistic MDP (O-MDP). We initially observed the potential benefits of optimism brought by encouraging more OOD rollouts. Motivated by this observation, we present ORPO, a simple yet effective model-based offline RL framework. ORPO generates Optimistic model Rollouts for Pessimistic offline policy Optimization. Specifically, we train an optimistic rollout policy in the O-MDP to sample more OOD model rollouts. Then we relabel the sampled state-action pairs with penalized rewards, and optimize the output policy in the P-MDP. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the performance of policies trained with ORPO can be lower-bounded in linear MDPs. Experimental results show that our framework significantly outperforms P-MDP baselines by a margin of 30%, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the widely-used benchmark. Moreover, ORPO exhibits notable advantages in problems that require generalization.
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Rozmetov, Rozmat. "IS HUMAN CONSCIOUSNESS SUPERIOR TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?" Oriental Journal of Social Sciences 05, no. 01 (2025): 1–8. https://doi.org/10.37547/supsci-ojss-05-01-01.
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In this article, studies and researches on the question of mind, advances in the philosophy of mind, conceptual and logical analyzes in the study of modern philosophy of mind, new metaphors as models of mind, including computer, quantum and synergistic studies, the integration of philosophy and science, problems of the optimist’s philosophy of mind processes such as the formation of optimistic and pessimistic views on processing artificial intelligence begins to fulfill the characteristic of the brain and mind.
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Khalifa, Hamiden Abd El-Wahed, Majed G. Alharbi, and Pavan Kumar. "On Determining the Critical Path of Activity Network with Normalized Heptagonal Fuzzy Data." Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing 2021 (July 3, 2021): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6699403.
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In this research work, an approach to determine the critical path of activity network with normalized heptagonal fuzzy data is proposed. In the proposed model, we attempt to develop a method for solving litigation problems by experts when they share the same information but differ in their opinions. The concepts for a critical path method (CPM) optimization with two kinds of data are as follows: those are to be optimistic and those considered being pessimistic. A numerical example is given for the illustration of the proposed approach and gain more insights. Based on the findings of the proposed work, we observe that the floating times with optimistic data are always smaller than or equal to the corresponding floating times for the pessimistic data.
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SPERANSKY, PETER A. "THE GREAT REFORMS IN MODERN RUSSIAN HISTORIOGRAPHY: PESSIMISTIC AND OPTIMISTIC MODELS." History and Modern Perspectives 6, no. 2 (2024): 148–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.33693/2658-4654-2024-6-2-148-153.
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The paper provides a historiographical analysis of the views of modern Russian authors on the problems of the Great Reforms. The paper notes that modern historiography has accumulated a large number of research works devoted to the analysis of the prerequisites, content, course and results of the transformations of the 1860s - 1870s. The paper concludes that Russian historiography has a wide range of assessments of the reforms of this period, both positive and negative content. The discussion of «pessimists» and «optimists» contributed to the increment of historical knowledge, during which new historical approaches were worked out and some historiographical gaps were filled.
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Siek, Konrad, and Paweł T. Wojciechowski. "Proving Opacity of Transactional Memory with Early Release." Foundations of Computing and Decision Sciences 40, no. 4 (2015): 317–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/fcds-2015-0018.
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Abstract Transactional Memory (TM) is an alternative way of synchronizing concurrent accesses to shared memory by adopting the abstraction of transactions in place of low-level mechanisms like locks and barriers. TMs usually apply optimistic concurrency control to provide a universal and easy-to-use method of maintaining correctness. However, this approach performs a high number of aborts in high contention workloads, which can adversely affect performance. Optimistic TMs can cause problems when transactions contain irrevocable operations. Hence, pessimistic TMs were proposed to solve some of these problems. However, an important way of achieving efficiency in pessimistic TMs is to use early release. On the other hand, early release is seemingly at odds with opacity, the gold standard of TM safety properties, which does not allow transactions to make their state visible until they commit. In this paper we propose a proof technique that makes it possible to demonstrate that a TM with early release can be opaque as long as it prevents inconsistent views.
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Kusper, Gábor, Csaba Biró, and Benedek Nagy. "Resolvable Networks—A Graphical Tool for Representing and Solving SAT." Mathematics 9, no. 20 (2021): 2597. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9202597.
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In this paper, we introduce the notion of resolvable networks. A resolvable network is a digraph of subnetworks, where subnetworks may overlap, and the inner structure of subnetworks are not interesting from the viewpoint of the network. There are two special subnetworks, Source and Sink, with the following properties: there is no incoming edge to Source, and there is no outgoing edge from Sink. Any resolvable network can be represented by a satisfiability problem in Boolean logic (shortly, SAT problem), and any SAT problem can be represented by a resolvable network. Because of that, the resolution operation is valid also for resolvable networks. We can use resolution to find out or refine the inner structure of subnetworks. We give also a pessimistic and an optimistic interpretation of subnetworks. In the pessimistic case, we assume that inside a subnetwork, all communication possibilities are represented as part of the resolvable network. In the optimistic case, we assume that each subnetwork is strongly connected. We show that any SAT problem can be visualized using the pessimistic interpretation. We show that transitivity is very limited in the pessimistic interpretation, and in this case, transitivity corresponds to resolution of clauses. In the optimistic interpretation of subnetworks, we have transitivity without any further condition, but not all SAT problems can be represented in this case; however, any such network can be represented as a SAT problem. The newly introduced graphical concept allows to use terminology and tools from directed graphs in the field of SAT and also to give graphical representations of various concepts of satisfiability problems. A resolvable network is also a suitable data structure to study, for example, wireless sensor networks. The visualization power of resolvable networks is demonstrated on some pigeon hole SAT problems. Another important application field could be modeling the communication network of an information bank. Here, a subnetwork represents a dataset of a user which is secured by a proxy. Any communication should be done through the proxy, and this constraint can be checked using our model.
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Sun, Jin, and Aiyi Yang. "Optimism Beyond the Problems: BRICS Higher Education Cooperation from a Chinese Perspective." Revista Española de Educación Comparada, no. 39 (June 27, 2021): 103–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5944/reec.39.2021.29840.
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Multilateral cooperation in higher education among BRICS countries has been under way for 7 years, since 2013. Scholars have different views and judgments, some positive and optimistic, some negative and pessimistic, regarding the significance, progress and prospects of BRICS higher education cooperation (BRICS HEC). What are the views and judgments of participants from Chinese universities? This question has not yet been answered due to a lack of relevant empirical research. To answer this question, six experts in Chinese universities who are involved in organizing or/and researching BRICS HEC were interviewed in this study. The study found that the six experts clearly recognized the necessity and significance of BRICS HEC. They identified the main achievements of this cooperation, including the establishment of two cooperation platforms (i.e., the BRICS Network University and the BRICS University League) and the development of a series of collaborations in student exchanges and research. They also pointed out existing problems, such as the difficulty of achieving multilateral cooperation, difficulty of establishing the mutual recognition of credits and qualifications, and the insufficient enthusiasm among potential participants. Despite these problems, five of the six experts evaluated the progress of such cooperation positively and were optimistic about its prospects. The positive and optimistic views of Chinese experts are contrasted with the problems, obstacles and pessimistic expectations dominant in previous studies, indicating that BRICS HEC is not only supported by the Chinese government but also accepted by Chinese participants. This constitutes an important driving force for the sustainable development of BRICS HEC in the future.
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Wibowo, Yuli, Siswoyo Soekarno, Andi Eko Wiyono, Ajeng Afriska Lailatul Fajriyah, and Eva Yulia Windiari. "Analisis prospektif pengembangan agrotechnopreneurship berbasis potensi sektor pertanian di Kabupaten Jember [Prospective analysis of potential-based agrotechnopreneurship development in the agricultural sector in Jember Regency]." Jurnal Teknologi & Industri Hasil Pertanian 29, no. 1 (2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/jtihp.v29i1.1-13.
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The pandemic several years ago has impacted employment problems with the increase in the number of unemployed in Jember Regency. One effort can be made to develop agrotechnopreneurship as a community business. This study aims to analyze the prospects for developing agrotechnopreneurship by utilizing the potential of the agricultural sector in Jember Regency. The analysis focused on potential agrotechnopreneurship products developed in Jember Regency today: mocaf, chili sauce, coconut briquettes, shredded catfish, and cow's milk kefir. This research uses a prospective analysis method structured based on states that may occur in the future. The results showed several scenarios for developing potential agrotechnopreneurship in Jember Regency, generally including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The development of agrotechnopreneurship in chili sauce, coconut briquettes, shredded catfish, and cow's milk kefir has an optimistic scenario, indicating a promising potential for future growth. This optimistic scenario can be realized if the key factors in the development of agrotechnopreneurship can be improved as expected. Meanwhile, the development of mocaf agrotechnopreneurship has a pessimistic scenario. Keywords: agrotechnopreneurship, Jember Regency, prospective analysis, the agricultural sector
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Mamedov, K., R. Niyazova, and S. Huseynov. "INNOVATIVE APPROXIMATE METHOD FOR SOLVING KRANZZ PROBLEMS WITH INTERVAL COEFFICIENTS." International independent scientific journal, no. 44 (November 4, 2022): 8–12. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7311206.
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<strong><em>Abstract</em></strong> <em>On the basis of knapsack problems with interval coefficients, optimistic and pessimistic problems are constructed. After that, approximate (suboptimal) solutions to these problems are found. Further, an algorithm is proposed to catch these decisions, which we call innovative. The programs of these algorithms were compiled and comparative computational experiments were carried out.</em> <strong><em>Аннотациа</em></strong> <em>В работе на основе задач о ранце с интервальними коэффициентами построены оптимистические и пессимистические задач. После этого, находиться приближённые (субоптимальные) решения этих задач. Далее, предложен алгоритм уличщение этих решений, который называем инновативный. Составлены программы этих алгоритмов и проведены сравнительные вычислительные эксперименты.</em>
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Singh, Vishnu, Shiv Prasad Yadav, and Sujeet Kumar Singh. "Duality theory in Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy mathematical programming problems: Optimistic, pessimistic and mixed approaches." Annals of Operations Research 296, no. 1-2 (2019): 667–706. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03229-8.
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Alisyukur, La Ode, Sunarto Sunarto, and Muh Aris Marfai. "SKENARIO PENGELOLAAN KEPESISIRAN BERKELANJUTAN KABUPATEN BUTON SELATAN, PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGGARA." ECOTROPHIC : Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan (Journal of Environmental Science) 14, no. 2 (2020): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/ejes.2020.v14.i02.p01.
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The coastal zone of South Buton Regency consists of unique ecosystems and abundant natural resources, but facing problems, mainly in terms of conflict between economic needs and ecological aspects. This study aims to set up scenarios for sustainable coastal zone management (SCZM) in South Buton Regency that are synergistic and benefit all stakeholders, without disregarding the principals of ecological conservation. Data were collected by interviews and field observations and were analyzed using prospective analysis method. Comprehensive analyisis were performed encompassing the effects and interactions of key components of the successfulness of the SCZM in South Buton based on the stakeholders desires. Three environmental management scenarios were assessed, namely: the conservative-pessimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are at minimum levels, the moderate-optimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are about 50%, and the progressive-optimistic scenario, in which all the key components are addressed for refinements. Results of the prospective analysis show that the moderate-optimistic scenario was the most appropriate scheme to be implemented for the sustainable coastal zone management in South Buton Regency, follows by progressive-optimistic and conservative-pessimistic scenarios, respectively.
 Keywords: Coastal zone; Key components; Prospective analysis; Environmental management
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Dubois, Didier, Hélène Fargier, and Agnès Rico. "Commuting Double Sugeno Integrals." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 27, Supp01 (2019): 1–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488519400014.
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In decision problems involving two dimensions (like several agents in uncertainty) the properties of expected utility ensure that the result of a two-stepped procedure evaluation does not depend on the order with which the aggregations of local evaluations are performed (e.g., agents first, uncertainty next, or the converse). We say that the aggregations on each dimension commute. In a previous conference paper, Ben Amor, Essghaier and Fargier have shown that this property holds when using pessimistic possibilistic integrals on each dimension, or optimistic ones, while it fails when using a pessimistic possibilistic integral on one dimension and an optimistic one on the other. This paper studies and completely solves this problem when more general Sugeno integrals are used in place of possibilistic integrals, leading to double Sugeno integrals. The results show that there are capacities other than possibility and necessity measures that ensure commutation of Sugeno integrals. Moreover, the relationship between two-dimensional capacities and the commutation property for their projections is investigated.
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Boschee, Pam. "Comments: Rolling Into 2021 - Take the Time To Adjust Your Worldview." Journal of Petroleum Technology 73, no. 01 (2021): 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/0121-0010-jpt.
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We enter the new year together as an industry and as SPE members, but also as individuals who have traveled on varying roads and experienced personal detours. While this also can be said of years past, 2020 brought with it unanticipated upheavals within the oil and gas industry, global societies, and our personal and professional lives (and livelihoods). Outlooks for the coming year depend in large part on your own worldview: Are you generally an optimist or a pessimist? An optimist believes that problems are temporary and will get better. A pessimist is convinced that the problem is here to stay and can only get worse. Optimists go into new situations with high expectations, while pessimists hang onto low expectations to prepare for negative outcomes. Do you see the glass as half full or half empty? The objective truth is that the water in the glass is at the halfway mark. The rest is up to our interpretation of that truth. The truth itself doesn’t change, but how we interpret it can have a huge effect on our actions. In his column this month, SPE President Tom Blasingame, a self-described optimist, wrote, “It’s time to look at the horizon” and “open our sails.” The metaphor describes taking action after the worst of a storm has passed or is passing and to make adjustments to get back on course. None of us are continuously optimistic or pessimistic. Life happens and moves the needle in either direction, but opening our sails may help us recover our optimism when it falters. Tapping into our resources is critical to our worldview. Am I consistently a cheerleader with a rosy view, no matter what happens? Certainly not, but I tap into my resources and mightily try to move the needle back toward optimism. (Warning: Success in doing so may not be immediate.) Your personal resources vary, and this is a reminder that SPE is one of those resources. This list is intended to serve as an “SPE Guide to Optimism.” These offerings can help to move the needle for you. Best wishes for 2021 from the JPT editorial team.
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Raghav, Yashpal Singh, Ahteshamul Haq, and Irfan Ali. "Multiobjective intuitionistic fuzzy programming under pessimistic and optimistic applications in multivariate stratified sample allocation problems." PLOS ONE 18, no. 4 (2023): e0284784. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284784.
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This study investigates the compromise allocation of multivariate stratified sampling with complete response and nonresponse. We have formulated a multivariate stratified sampling problem as a mathematical programming problem to estimate p-population means with complete response and nonresponse for a fixed cost. Then, the compromise allocations for sample designs are determined by implementing intuitionistic fuzzy programming using optimistic and pessimistic solution strategies. A simulation study is carried out using the Stratify R software program to demonstrate the complete solution process. In wildlife, agricultural and marketing-related surveys, the study could be helpful. Also, the national planning policies related to surveys in such cases this study could be helpful. This study is an attempt to solve the sampling optimization problem using the Lingo-18 optimization program.
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Ayral, Thomas. "Quantum computing: promises, achievements and challenges." Photoniques, no. 131 (2025): 66–71. https://doi.org/10.1051/photon/202513166.
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Quantum computers regularly make the headlines, with optimistic claims (often issued by companies large and small) alternating with pessimistic rebuttals (often by academic labs): sometimes they supposedly solve outstanding hard computational problems, sometimes their performances are dwarfed by classical machines. The goal of this article is to shed light on this back-and-forth, and explain what quantum computing could really be useful for.
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Ivanova, Tatiana V., Tatiana N. Chernysheva, Aleksandr V. Prokopiev, and Anna A. Ivanova. "ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE CHUVASH REPUBLIC." Oeconomia et Jus, no. 1 (March 26, 2021): 44–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.47026/2499-9636-2021-1-44-51.
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The article presents a forecast for agriculture development in the Chuvash Republic up to 2022 according to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Agriculture occupies a special position in the region's economy and is a system-forming industry. The share of agriculture in the gross regional product makes 9%, which is significantly higher than in other regions of the country, and the share of residents living in rural areas is 36.6%. Structurally, the agriculture of the Chuvash Republic is quite balanced. During the study period from 2010–2019, significant positive changes in the industry can be noted. Thus, the production of basic agricultural products increased by 1.93, and the gross output of basic crops increased by 2.16. However, despite the positive trends, there are still problems in certain areas. The production of the animal husbandry main products during the study period decreased by 135.6 thousand tons; the agricultural machinery fleet in agricultural organizations decreased by 1.97; the number of livestock decreased by 147.3 thousand heads. In order to predict future changes in the industry, the authors, based on the dynamics of indicators for 2010–2019 that characterize agricultural production in the Chuvash Republic, and using the Excel program, proposed three options for the development of the situation for 2020–2022 – optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Studies have shown that a pessimistic development scenario is more likely to be implemented, which requires immediate corrective actions in the agricultural sector of the Chuvash Republic.
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Nematian, Javad. "Novel Reliable Uncapacitated P-Hub Location Problems Under Uncertainty." International Journal of Fuzzy System Applications 7, no. 4 (2018): 115–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijfsa.2018100106.
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Hubs are facilities to collect, arrange and distribute commodities in telecommunication networks, cargo delivery systems, etc. In this article, it will study two popular hub location problems (p-hub center and p-hub maximal covering problems) under uncertainty. First, novel reliable uncapacitated p-hub location problems are introduced based on considering the failure probability of hubs, in which the parameters are random fuzzy variables, but the decision variables are real variables. Then, the proposed hub location problems under uncertainty are solved by new methods using random fuzzy chance-constrained programming based on the idea of possibility theory. These methods can satisfy optimistic and pessimistic decision makers under uncertain framework. Finally, some benchmark problems are solved as numerical examples to clarify the described methods and show their efficiency.
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Yuzaria, Dwi, Nuraini, Elfi Rahmi, and Muhammad Ikhsan Rias. "A System Dynamics Model for Developing an Agropolitan Area based on Laying Hens in Lima Puluh Kota Regency." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097, no. 1 (2022): 012035. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035.
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Abstract The development of an agropolitan area based on laying hens in Lima Puluh Kota Regency faces many problems. One method that can be used to solve these complex problems is the systems approach. This study aimed to build a model for developing a sustainable agropolitan area based on integrated laying hens farming. The results of the system performance indicated that the current system is in a fairly sustainable position. The dynamics of time will make changes in system performance in the future. There are six factors that influence the interdependent system, namely carrying capacity, egg prices, farmer income, employment, infrastructure, and utilization of livestock waste. Based on the state of each factor, three scenarios were formulated for the development of a sustainable laying hens farming system in Lima Puluh Kota Regency: (1) conservative-pessimistic scenario, (2) moderate-optimistic scenario, and (3) progressive-optimistic scenario.
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Gea, Antonius Atosökhi. "People, Environment, and Future Sebuah Tinjauan atas Kesimpulan Pesimis Mengenai Lingkungan Hidup dan Masa Depan Manusia." Humaniora 3, no. 1 (2012): 332. http://dx.doi.org/10.21512/humaniora.v3i1.3322.
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The study on the environment continuously attracted the attention of many people. The studies are generally based on a sense of concern over the condition of the natural environment and the future of mankind, that is an inseparable part of the natural environment as a whole. From the various existing studies, there is a rather pessimistic and also a more optimistic to look at the future of human beings in relation to the natural environment. One of the pessimistic conclusion is the result of a study conducted by Heilbroner, who analyze a variety of facts and trends that continue to occur, ranging from the rapid increase in population of the world, environmental problems as well as the war, which was the unintended consequences could be avoided. From the results of his analysis Heilbroner finally came to the pessimists conclusion that no hope for the future of mankind. This conclusion has provoked a lot of debate, associated with the accuracy-related challenges he pointed out, as well as his pessimistic projection about the future of mankind. Based on the review conducted over this negative conclusion it is known that there are the possibility for human beings to be able to fix the situation, raise awareness, change attitudes, do something radically which gives positive impact to the safety of the environment. By making the study of Heilbroner as a criticism and the triggers for the emergence of higher concern for the environment, we can hope that there is still hope for mankind to a better future.
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Clack, Beverley. "Enter the Crone: Wisdom and the (Ageing) Female Body." Feminist Theology 32, no. 2 (2023): 224–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/09667350231208145.
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The sociologist Arthur Frank, in his discussion of chronic illness, argues that we live ‘at the will of the body’. Contemporary Western attitudes suggest, to the contrary, that the body lives ‘at the will of the mind’. This article explores the problems of adopting an overly optimistic approach that ignores the role of the body for identity. I offer, instead, an approach grounded in the pessimistic tradition in philosophy. This approach runs contrary to what we as individuals, and as a society, might like to be the case. In addition, this approach poses a challenge to some dominant strands in contemporary feminist thought, made apparent by bringing to the fore the ageing female body. It might be assumed that a pessimistic philosophy such as the one pursued in this article is wholly negative; yet, it need not be read in this way. A pessimistic perspective may well reflect a healthy realism about the universe we inhabit that, paradoxically, enables us to live more flourishing lives. As Joshua Foa Dienstag (2006), philosopher of the varieties of pessimism, writes, ‘pessimism is a terror that liberates’ (p. 178), and I suggest how this might be of use in addressing climate change.
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Amussen, Susan Dwyer. "Punishment, Discipline, and Power: The Social Meanings of Violence in Early Modern England." Journal of British Studies 34, no. 1 (1995): 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/386065.
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In recent years, historians have conducted an extended debate on the nature and level of violence in early modern English society. This debate has come to focus on the murder rate as an index of violence and to turn on highly specialized points of statistical analysis. In some ways it can be characterized as a debate between optimistic and pessimistic historians. Lawrence Stone, representing the “pessimists,” paints a portrait of early modern society as violent, unloving, and uncaring until civilized by the eighteenth century; J. A. Sharpe, representing the “optimists,” emphasizes the problems of the data used by Stone and argues, like Alan Macfarlane, that English society in the early modern period was little different from that of today. J. S. Cockburn, the latest entrant into the fray, leans toward the optimists but has expressed some hesitation about the debate itself: he notes not only the serious problems with the data involved but also the difficulties of defining what constitutes a violent society, as “it is not at all clear that homicide rates are a reliable measure of the overall level of violent behavior in a particular society.” This caution suggests that we should take an entirely different approach to the problem of violence, to look for “the social meaning of violence.” We must move beyond the statistical data (important though they be) to a broader context for thinking about violence.The way historians think about violence has been deeply influenced by the work of Max Weber and his assertion that “legal coercion by violence is the monopoly of the state”; it is often forgotten that the first word of that sentence is “Today.”
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Mahajan, Sumati, and S. K. Gupta. "On optimistic, pessimistic and mixed approaches under different membership functions for fully intuitionistic fuzzy multiobjective nonlinear programming problems." Expert Systems with Applications 168 (April 2021): 114309. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.114309.
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Esikova, Viktoriya. "Cartographic support for the analysis of the transformation of reproduction of the urban and rural population of Russia." Pskov Journal of Regional Studies, no. 2 (2025): 87. https://doi.org/10.37490/s221979310034219-3.
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At the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries, the Russian Federation faced serious problems in the demographic sphere. The article discusses the use of GIS technologies for the analysis of demographic processes, in particular, population reproduction at the level of Russia and its regions. The methodology of geoinformation analysis includes the creation of a spatial database, the construction of geoinformation models (maps) in GIS and the study of the results of mapping with the definition of territorial differentiation of the process at the level of regions of Russia, the characteristics and typology of this process in each of the 4 periods of population reproduction transformation: 1990‒2000, 2001‒2010, 2011‒2017, 2018‒2023. The study included the development of forecast scenarios for the urban and rural population (optimistic, inertial and pessimistic) and a demographic forecast for the period up to 2050. According to the optimistic scenario of the forecast, the population of Russia in 2050 will be 1158.9 million people (migration growth prevails over natural decline), according to the average scenario — 137.3 million people (natural decline prevails over migration growth), according to the pessimistic scenario — 129.2 million people (natural decline and migration outflow). A series of cartographic materials was constructed reflecting the main features of the reproduction of the urban and rural population of the post-Soviet period.
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Безрукова, Наталія Валерьївна, and Віталій Анатолійович Свічкарь. "European currency system: problems and developments of prospective evaluation." ЕКОНОМІКА І РЕГІОН Науковий вісник, no. 1(72) (June 24, 2019): 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.26906/eir.2019.1(72).1437.
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In the article the authors investigated the problems of the European monetary system functioning. It is emphasized that the EU and the Euro zone are currently suffering from strain and unsolved problems, which do not exclude gradual decrease in the EU countries consolidation and influence.
 The aim of the article is to analyze present days’ problems of European Union functioning and European monetary system, in particular evaluation their further development perspectives.
 Debt crisis in the Euro zone sets a question to the single European currency and European integration prospective. It is noted by the authors that as a result of economic crisis Europe are divided into two macro regions, which are unsuccessful “South” and prosperous “North”. Numerous prognoses foresee various scenarios for the situation development, from pessimistic to optimistic ones. However political efforts of the leading EU countries, primarily Germany, France, and the Netherlands are required.
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Безрукова, Наталія Валерьївна, and Віталій Анатолійович Свічкарь. "European currency system: problems and developments of prospective evaluation." Економіка і регіон/ Economics and region, no. 1(72) (June 24, 2019): 49–55. https://doi.org/10.26906/eip.2019.1(72).1437.
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In the article the authors investigated the problems of the European monetary system functioning. It is emphasized that the EU and the Euro zone are currently suffering from strain and unsolved problems, which do not exclude gradual decrease in the EU countries consolidation and influence. The aim of the article is to analyze present days’ problems of European Union functioning and European monetary system, in particular evaluation their further development perspectives. Debt crisis in the Euro zone sets a question to the single European currency and European integration prospective. It is noted by the authors that as a result of economic crisis Europe are divided into two macro regions, which are unsuccessful “South” and prosperous “North”. Numerous prognoses foresee various scenarios for the situation development, from pessimistic to optimistic ones. However political efforts of the leading EU countries, primarily Germany, France, and the Netherlands are required.
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Et al., Paryati. "Project Delivery of Goods With Limited Resources and Minimum Time Using Fuzzy Logic Method." Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT) 12, no. 6 (2021): 1729–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.17762/turcomat.v12i6.3380.
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In solving the problem of fuzzy application for scheduling delivery of goods with a limited power source and minimal time, the problems that are still not considered in the RCPS problem modeling are the uncertainty characteristics of the parameters of the timing of activities in the delivery project. Even though this can be solved by using the PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technoloque) method with a probabilistic approach, this technique still ignores the limitations of the supply of resources. Actually, a probabilistic approach can be used, if previously provided data about the experience in completing similar projects. But if the project is a new project or the techniques and methodologies used to complete a new project, such as new techniques and methodologies in software engineering, among others: object-oriented design and programming, computer-aided software design, user interface management systems, fourth generation languages, etc., then the probabilistic approach is not suitable. 
 In this situation, the decision maker must be able to estimate the cost and time duration, of all activities in the project based on existing experience, related to the level of knowledge they have, about new techniques and methodologies to be applied, and the level of human resource expertise. which are available. This method of estimating project costs and time, which is more precise, uses representations in the form of fuzzy numbers, namely fuzzy sets in the set of real numbers that are normal, convex, and closed intervals. The delivery time is modeled as a fuzzy number of LR types IKiri, IKanan, α, β, with three values of α-cuts E = 0.3, L = 0.7, and I = 1.0. The fuzzy transformation model is based on three pairs of inferior and superior values from α-cuts. The priority for scheduling delivery of goods is based on the smallest early start time EST value. Resources are solved by serial and parallel models. The smallest makespan value is used to determine the best solution. Goods delivery settlement uses fuzzy operations, namely arithmetic operations and relation operations. 
 Analysis of the output oftware based on testing with test scenarios (table ^ .50) for some input data shows that the parallel method is better than the serial method. This is indicated by the large difference in makespan value generated from the two methods. Based on input data from a software development project, the serial method gives makespan values in the range between 675.0 and 867.0, while the parallel method gives makespan values in the range between 116.0 and 259.0. The analysis of the output software in a fuzzy Gantt Chart representation shows that an activity can be scheduled with varying degrees of optimism. The degree of optimistic activity scheduling can be graded in linguistic terminology between two extreme pessimistic and optimistic values, namely very pessimistic, pessimistic, slightly pessimistic, slightly optimistic, optimistic, very optomistic.
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Dalton, J. A., J. I. McGregor, P. Sen, and F. Kenevissi. "A Robust Approach to Jobshop Scheduling Problems in the Marine Environment." Journal of Ship Production 21, no. 03 (2005): 177–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/jsp.2005.21.3.177.
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In industry the scheduling of large made-to-order products, such as submarines or ships, is typically implemented using precise time intervals. As a result of this, schedules rarely if ever reflect reality, and this can make the task of managing large projects difficult and potentially costly. Not surprisingly, robustness is a desired property of a schedule, bringing with it a greater stability with less uncertainty. In addressing these problems, this paper first describes a practical job shop model that is then extended to allow the inclusion of imprecise durations. By implementing this methodology on an industrial case study, a submarine pressure hull, a means of gauging and providing greater robustness of scheduling is determined. This investigation into robustness also shows that improvements can be made by optimizing pessimistic duration times in contrast to the common practice of using optimistic times.
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Thongmual, Noppakun, Chanchai Laoha, and Narong Wichapa. "An optimistic-pessimistic game cross-efficiency method based on a Gibbs entropy model for ranking decision making units." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 13, no. 2 (2024): 1411–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v13i2.5747.
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The game cross-efficiency method, a commonly utilized approach for ranking decision-making units in tie-breaking scenarios, is based on secondary goals. However, in certain data envelopment analysis ranking problems, the classical game cross-efficiency method may fail to differentiate all decision-making units effectively. To address this limitation, it is prudent to explore the development of a new method that can enhance the ranking performance of the classical game cross-efficiency approach. In this study, we propose a novel Gibbs entropy linear programming model that integrates both optimistic and pessimistic perspectives of the classical game cross-efficiency method for data envelopment analysis ranking problems. To validate the reliability and utility of our proposed method, we present three examples: the six nursing homes problem, numerical example 2, and an application involving twenty Thai provinces with cash crop data. The reliability of the proposed method is assessed using Spearman’s correlation coefficient (rs) on the numerical examples. The results demonstrate that the rs values for both the proposed method and the classical game crossefficiency method, specifically for the six nursing homes problem, numerical example 2, and the application involving twenty Thai provinces, are determined to be rs=0.998, 0.998, and 0.986 respectively.
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ABUSELIDZE, George, Nataliia LEVCHENKO, Ganna SHYSHKANOVA, Oleg PLATONOV, and Lyudmila IUSHCHENKO. "Policy of Decarbonisation of the Transport Sector of the Economy of Ukraine: Problems and Perspectives." Ecological Chemistry and Engineering S 30, no. 4 (2023): 517–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/eces-2023-0046.
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Abstract Practically, the strategic guideline for a transformation of transport sector of the Ukraine’s economy is the reduction of the transport carbon footprint. The decarbonisation policy of the Ukrainian transport sector is characterised in the present paper. Moreover, inefficiency of the current policy is proved. The authors created the mathematical model of structural improvement in road transportations by redistribution of transportations volumes between the motor transport and the railway. Guided by the scenario approach, the three most probable scenarios for traffic optimisation are developed, such as pessimistic, basic, and optimistic. The carbon reduction percentage is computed in each of these scenarios. In addition, the priority vectors of the policy of the structural optimisation of the road transport by redistribution of traffic volumes between the motor transport and the railway are determined.
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Das, Debasis, Arindam Roy, and Samarjit Kar. "A Production-Inventory Model for a Deteriorating Item Incorporating Learning Effect Using Genetic Algorithm." Advances in Operations Research 2010 (2010): 1–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2010/146042.
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Demand for a seasonal product persists for a fixed period of time. Normally the “finite time horizon inventory control problems” are formulated for this type of demands. In reality, it is difficult to predict the end of a season precisely. It is thus represented as an uncertain variable and known as random planning horizon. In this paper, we present a production-inventory model for deteriorating items in an imprecise environment characterised by inflation and timed value of money and considering a constant demand. It is assumed that the time horizon of the business period is random in nature and follows exponential distribution with a known mean. Here, we considered the resultant effect of inflation and time value of money as both crisp and fuzzy. For crisp inflation effect, the total expected profit from the planning horizon is maximized using genetic algorithm (GA) to derive optimal decisions. This GA is developed using Roulette wheel selection, arithmetic crossover, and random mutation. On the other hand when the inflation effect is fuzzy, we can expect the profit to be fuzzy, too! As for the fuzzy objective, the optimistic or pessimistic return of the expected total profit is obtained using, respectively, a necessity or possibility measure of the fuzzy event. The GA we have developed uses fuzzy simulation to maximize the optimistic/pessimistic return in getting an optimal decision. We have provided some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses to illustrate the model.
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Wei, Ming, Yun Li, Bo Sun, and Jianning Wang. "A new evaluation model for uncertain traffic pollution control planning under the risk attitudes of the decision maker." Filomat 32, no. 5 (2018): 1777–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fil1805777w.
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The purpose of this work is to address a new multi-attribute decision making evaluation model for uncertain traffic pollution control program, by considering the preference of each decision maker to different programs. An interval mapping function was introduced to specify the risk attitudes of the decision maker, which can dissect the original problem to decision problems of traditional values. The proposed model can quantitatively analyze how the risk attitudes of the decision makers affect efficiency ranking for different plans. Case studies performed on the four plans showed that the optimistic ranking of the four plans is the same as that of the neutral situation, but there is a significant difference with the results of pessimistic situation.
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Tilahun, Surafel Luleseged. "Convex Grey Optimization." RAIRO - Operations Research 53, no. 1 (2019): 339–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/ro/2018088.
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Many optimization problems are formulated from a real scenario involving incomplete information due to uncertainty in reality. The uncertainties can be expressed with appropriate probability distributions or fuzzy numbers with a membership function, if enough information can be accessed for the construction of either the probability density function or the membership of the fuzzy numbers. However, in some cases there may not be enough information for that and grey numbers need to be used. A grey number is an interval number to represent the value of a quantity. Its exact value or the likelihood is not known but the maximum and/or the minimum possible values are. Applications in space exploration, robotics and engineering can be mentioned which involves such a scenario. An optimization problem is called a grey optimization problem if it involves a grey number in the objective function and/or constraint set. Unlike its wide applications, not much research is done in the field. Hence, in this paper, a convex grey optimization problem will be discussed. It will be shown that an optimal solution for a convex grey optimization problem is a grey number where the lower and upper limit are computed by solving the problem in an optimistic and pessimistic way. The optimistic way is when the decision maker counts the grey numbers as decision variables and optimize the objective function for all the decision variables whereas the pessimistic way is solving a minimax or maximin problem over the decision variables and over the grey numbers.
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Bugajska, Anna. "Biopolítica y distopía: la genómica en Next de Michael Crichton." Quaderns de Filosofia 7, no. 2 (2021): 59. http://dx.doi.org/10.7203/qfia.7.2.18798.
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Biopolitics and dystopia: genomics in Michael Crichton’s Next
 
 Resumen: En este artículo se busca demostrar que, mientras el desarrollo científico es propulsado por el pensamiento tecno-optimista (utópico), el discurso prevalente sobre genómica en la cultura de masas es pesimista (distópico) y tiene potencial para impedir la construcción de respuestas adecuadas a los desafíos biopolíticos por parte de los sistemas políticos y jurídicos. Aquí se sostiene que la utopía genómica es la única propuesta optimista que estimula las investigaciones científicas y que permite pensar en las posibles regulaciones y los cambios necesarios para la conceptualización de la idea de propiedad. Estos problemas son ilustrados con la ayuda del libro de Michael Crichton, Next, que proporciona numerosos ejemplos distópicos.
 Summary: The article seeks to demonstrate that while scientific development is pro- pelled by technooptimistic thought (utopian), the prevalent discourse about genomics is pessimistic (dystopian), which has the potential to forestall the construction of an adequate answer on the part of political and legal systems. It is shown that genomic utopia is the only optimistic proposition which stimulates scientific research as well as enables thinking about regulations and the necessary changes in the conceptualization of the idea of property. These problems are illustrated with the help of Michael Crichton’s book Next, which provides numerous dystopian examples.
 
 Palabras clave: biopolítica, distopía, genómica, sociedad abierta, autopropiedad, Crichton.
 Keywords: biopolitics, dystopia, genomics, open society, self-ownership, Crichton.
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Manjula Bai, H. "Mobile Banking Services and Customer satisfaction with reference to ICICI Bank - A Study." Shanlax International Journal of Commerce 7, no. 2 (2019): 7–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.34293/commerce.v7i2.345.
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This paper is designed to study the extent of the recent developments in the mobile banking system in India.,to know the optimistic and pessimistic influence of mobile banking on the customers of ICICI bank. For the purpose of study, the researcher has selected 50 respondents who have familiar with the modern technology of mobile banking. It particularly focused on the problems or the benefits availed from the mobile banking provided by ICICI bank. All levels of customers were surveyed by using questionnaire and the level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction from the mobile banking was studied. Finally the detail information about the benefits they had received were also considered. A small attempt have been made to understand the benefits of the mobile banking and also the limitation of mobile banking was studied with reference to ICICI Bank. Finally, it makes an attempt to offer suggestions to the bank to educate much more about mobile banking to its customer. This paper is designed to study the extent of the recent developments in the mobile banking system in India., to know the optimistic and pessimistic influence of mobile banking on the customers of ICICI bank. For the purpose of study, the researcher has selected 50 respondents who have familiar with the modern technology of mobile banking. It particularly focused on the problems or the benefits availed from the mobile banking provided by ICICI bank. All levels of customers were surveyed by using questionnaire and the level of satisfaction or dissatisfaction from the mobile banking was studied. Finally the detail information about the benefits they had received were also considered. A small attempt have been made to understand the benefits of the mobile banking and also the limitation of mobile banking was studied with reference to ICICI Bank. Finally, it makes an attempt to offer suggestions to the bank to educate much more about mobile banking to its customer.
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Wikaningrum, Temmy, and Rijal Hakiki. "The Prospective Study of Driving Factors on Industrial Estate Environmental Management Policy, Case Study of Industrial Estate in Bekasi Regency." E3S Web of Conferences 68 (2018): 04002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20186804002.
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Pertinent strategic policy required in the environmental management for industrial estate to conduce sustainable management.Due the complexity of the problems, the MDS (Multi Dimensional Scaling) analysis was required in term ofthe dimension of ecological, economical, social, technological and institutional. Prior researches about environmental management analysis in the industrial estate at Bekasi, MDS had been conducted with different approach such as the green rating of PROPER KLHK criteria, integration of quality system and environmental, and expert judgment. The key factors from MDS analysis merged for further study in prospective analysis. It was aim to gain the information about the driving factors which determine the behavior in the system based on the needs analysis of the stakeholders involved. The driving factors were used to form the basis scenario for developing the several prospective alternative strategic policies. The driving factors were taken from the 1st quadrant of mapping result in the depth interview with Bourgeois matrix as low dependency factor but has high impact. The pessimistic, moderate and optimistic alternative prospective strategic policy had been developed. Based on the evaluation of prospective option, optimistic alternative scenario was recommended as the implementative strategy which support the sustainable industrial estate environmental management.
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Marenko, Valentina, and Olga Anokhina. "Modeling of the Social Role of the Guardianship Authorities to Support Management Decision-Making." Bulletin of Baikal State University 29, no. 2 (2019): 239–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2019.29(2).239-243.
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The article considers various aspects of guardianship. As foster families often face psychological and educational problems when bringing up foster children and need appropriate assistance, proper research appears to be relevant. The authors analyzed the number of orphaned children using the data of the annual abstract of statistics of the Russian Federation. The forecast of a change in the number of orphaned children in the Russian Federation in general and in Siberian Federal District in particular is given. Although there is positive dynamics of finding families for orphaned children, their number still tends to be growing according to both the pessimistic and the optimistic forecast. The objective of this article is to build a cognitive model and to carry out a simulation experiment to reveal the most significant influencing factors.
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Bonnel, Henri. "WHEN SEMIVECTORIAL BILEVEL OPTIMIZATION REDUCES TO ORDINARY BILEVEL OPTIMIZATION." Annals of the Academy of Romanian Scientists Series on Mathematics and Its Application 12, no. 1-2 (2020): 344–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.56082/annalsarscimath.2020.1-2.344.
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The paper deals with semivectorial bilevel optimization problems. The upper level is a scalar optimization problem to be solved by the leader, and the lower level is a multiobjective optimization problem to be solved by several followers acting in a cooperative way inside the greatest coalition, so choosing among Pareto solutions. In the so-called “optimistic problem”, the followers choose among their best responses (i.e. Pareto solutions) one which is the most favorable for the leader. The opposite is the “pessimistic problem”, when there is no cooperation between the leader and the followers, and the followers choice among their best responses may be the worst for the leader. The paper presents a general method which allows, under certain mild hypotheses, to transform a semivectorial bilevel problem into an ordinary bilevel optimization. Some applications are given.
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KHMELEVA, Galina A., Valerii K. SEMENYCHEV, and Anastasiya A. KOROBETSKAYA. "Percentiles and a cyclic approach for the methodology of scenario predictive planning of promising specialization of the region." Regional Economics: Theory and Practice 19, no. 10 (2021): 1975–2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/re.19.10.1975.
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Subject. This article deals with the problems of development of promising sectors of the region's economy. Objectives. The article aims to assess the scenarios of regional industry changes considering a case study of the automotive industry. Methods. For the study, we used the bootstrap and wavelet transform techniques. Results. The article describes the inertial, pessimistic (5% percentile) and optimistic (95% percentile) scenarios for the development of the automotive industry and shows the range of possible deviations of industry dynamics in the case of the influence of external and internal factors. Conclusions. The proposed methodology and tools make it possible to fine-tune the forecast of industry dynamics, take into account its possible deviations from a predetermined path during the year, and put management decisions into proactive impact effect.
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Petrova, I. "Implementation of Investment Projects Based on the Principles of Partnership Between Government, Business and Society in Ukraine: Modern Trends and Development Forecasting." Economic Herald of the Donbas, no. 1-2(75-76) (2024): 178–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.12958/1817-3772-2024-1-2(75-76)-178-189.
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The article is devoted to the analysis of the current state and prospects for the development of the partnership of government, business and society on the basis of public-private partnership (PPP) in Ukraine for the period 2024-2030, in particular in the context of the country's post-war recovery. The paper examines the key trends in the implementation of PPP contracts for the period from 2018 to 2023, reveals serious problems in the implementation of projects, in particular, a decrease in the number of implemented contracts and an increase in the share of unimplemented and terminated contracts. The influence of military actions on the PPP implementation process is analyzed and the need to adapt management mechanisms to new conditions is emphasized. Special attention is paid to the role of PPPs in the recovery of critical sectors such as education, health care, transport and others, as well as opportunities to attract investments. Three main scenarios for the development of the partnership between government, business and society for the coming years are considered: optimistic, basic and pessimistic. It was determined that the PPP has significant potential for positive change, but success will depend on economic stability, political decisions and the effectiveness of legislative changes. For the purpose of more accurate forecasting, the Monte Carlo method was applied, which made it possible to obtain detailed forecasts of PPP development under three scenarios. The simulation results showed that the optimistic scenario predicts a high potential for project development and a significant amount of investment, while the pessimistic scenario reflects possible difficulties and limited growth. The importance of strategic planning and adaptation to possible changes for effective management of investment projects on the basis of partnership between government, business and society in conditions of uncertainty is justified.
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Wang, Siqin, Xiao Huang, Tao Hu, et al. "The times, they are a-changin’: tracking shifts in mental health signals from early phase to later phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia." BMJ Global Health 7, no. 1 (2022): e007081. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007081.
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IntroductionWidespread problems of psychological distress have been observed in many countries following the outbreak of COVID-19, including Australia. What is lacking from current scholarship is a national-scale assessment that tracks the shifts in mental health during the pandemic timeline and across geographic contexts.MethodsDrawing on 244 406 geotagged tweets in Australia from 1 January 2020 to 31 May 2021, we employed machine learning and spatial mapping techniques to classify, measure and map changes in the Australian public’s mental health signals, and track their change across the different phases of the pandemic in eight Australian capital cities.ResultsAustralians’ mental health signals, quantified by sentiment scores, have a shift from pessimistic (early pandemic) to optimistic (middle pandemic), reflected by a 174.1% (95% CI 154.8 to 194.5) increase in sentiment scores. However, the signals progressively recessed towards a more pessimistic outlook (later pandemic) with a decrease in sentiment scores by 48.8% (95% CI 34.7 to 64.9). Such changes in mental health signals vary across capital cities.ConclusionWe set out a novel empirical framework using social media to systematically classify, measure, map and track the mental health of a nation. Our approach is designed in a manner that can readily be augmented into an ongoing monitoring capacity and extended to other nations. Tracking locales where people are displaying elevated levels of pessimistic mental health signals provide important information for the smart deployment of finite mental health services. This is especially critical in a time of crisis during which resources are stretched beyond normal bounds.
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Tuanaya, Adis Harni, Venn Yan Ishak Ilwaru, and Yopi Andry Lesnussa. "Optimization of Flat Construction Implementation Time Using Critical Path Method and Project Evaluation and Review Technique." Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) 3, no. 2 (2024): 39–50. https://doi.org/10.30598/pijmathvol3iss2pp39-50.
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This research aims to develop a system that effectively solves construction project management problems using PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) and CPM (Critical Path Method) methods for the ASN flat construction project in Piru City, Maluku Province, Indonesia. In this study, the project activity data was analyzed using the PERT Method, which includes realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic durations; then, it is used to calculate the estimated time of each activity. Meanwhile, CPM was used to determine the critical path of the project. The results showed that project management can be done more accurately and efficiently with these two methods, minimizing the risk of delays. The optimal duration of the project obtained is 49 weeks with a probability value of 98.87% with the critical path obtained, namely A-B-E-F-G-J-K-L-M.
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Salim, Jessica, and Mira Wati. "GAMBARAN OPTIMISME ANAK PADA PERCERAIAN ORANG TUA." Psikologi Prima 5, no. 2 (2022): 75–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.34012/psychoprima.v5i2.3113.
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Family is the first place for individuals which becomes the primary place for someone to learn and instill life values. Living in a family will only sometimes go according to what we expect, but other things will appear that intentionally or unintentionally will become obstacles. If you have made all the prevention efforts and solutions to remove existing obstacles but are unsuccessful, the way to do this is through a divorce. According to Yusuf (2004), parental divorce is a family situation that is not harmonious, unstable, or messy. The condition of children who experience divorce will have the ability to position themselves or have a habit of dealing with problems that occur. Therefore, optimism is the ability of a child to deal with the situation they are experiencing or the tendency to face a problem in thinking in a good or positive direction. So divorce will make children feel devastated, and some will feel pessimistic. However, some children will feel a rift in their parent's relationship, which results in a divorce, and will feel optimistic about what happened to them. By feeling optimistic, the child can adjust and adapt to an environment that will experience drastic changes. The research method used in this study is qualitative, and the method used is a literature study.
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Setyowati, Putri Budi, Hery Toiba, S. Sujarwo, S. Syafrial, and Condro Puspo Nugroho. "GAME THEORY APPLICATION IN DECISION MAKING OF HORTICULTURE FARMING." Agricultural Social Economic Journal 21, no. 1 (2021): 59–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.21776/ub.agrise.2021.021.1.8.
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In running farming system, farmers not only have a role important as owners who land they farm. But also they are as farm managers to make any decisions to face their farming problems under risk and uncertainty. These problems are categorized as internal and external factors related to price fluctuations of agricultural commodities. For that reason, farmers need to consider some strategies to overcome their farming problem for instance by choosing the best commodities that would give them an optimal profit. The maximax, maximin, savage, and laplace criterions were used to analyze decision making of horticulture farmer in determining which best horticultural commodities to plant according to their behaviour and attitude toward farming risk. Thus, horticulture farmer will be able to make a choice whether or not it is potato, cabbage, or, scallion that will be cultivated in the next planting period. Potato farmers are categorized as the optimistic farmer who loves farming risks and they are cautious. While scallion farmers are pessimistic farmers and they are risk averse. In addition, cabbage farmers are the ones who have the least regret.
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Sushko, Pavel. "Dynamics of Russians’ perception of the situation in various spheres of life: from assessments to requests for social policy." Sociologicheskaja nauka i social'naja praktika 12, no. 4 (2024): 82–105. https://doi.org/10.19181/snsp.2024.12.4.5.
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The article analyzes the dynamics and specifics of Russians’ assessments of the ongoing changes in various spheres of life. Based on the data of studies conducted by the Institute of Sociology of FCTAS RAS in different years, it is shown that the most significant improvements have occurred over the past almost two decades in terms of the level and quality of life of the population, as well as education and health care. In particular, the share of positive perception of the situation with unemployment and expansion of opportunities for earning, with the availability of housing and pre-school institutions is growing. “Cautious” positivity is noted with regard to the situation with social justice, living standards, as well as secondary and higher education. However, the dominance of positive assessments is not recorded in any of the spheres. This signals the persistence of separate problems in them, relevant for different groups of the population. Assessments of the situation in the spheres related to collective security deserve special attention, in respect of which a sharp increase in negative assessments is recorded. The groups with relatively homogeneous views on the dynamics of the situation in different spheres of life in society were considered. Among them, Russians with pessimistic and moderately optimistic views of the ongoing changes are approximately equal in number. It has been noted that the key differences between these groups, and, accordingly, their requests for changes in certain spheres, are formed under the influence of factors mainly of a subjective nature. They are related to the perception of their own well-being, the number and nature of problems experienced in the last year, as well as some “we-identities”. In particular, it is shown that the request for qualitative changes for pessimists is formed largely spontaneously and under the effect of the cumulative negative impact of many factors on their lives. Requests for further improvements in key areas of life are more differentiated among moderate optimists and “stability-oriented” part of society.
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Nematian, Javad, and Seyed Salar Ghotb. "Mathematical Programming for Modelling Green Supply Chains Under Randomness and Fuzziness." International Journal of Fuzzy System Applications 6, no. 1 (2017): 56–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijfsa.2017010104.
Full textAbstract:
Nowadays by growing concerns about environmental problems, businesses and industries are under pressure to decrease their negative impact on environment, consequently firms and industries have to reconsider about their activities and make their business compatible with environment. So industries should green their supply chains to optimize economic and environmental concerns, but because of uncertainty in the real world like inconsistency of world economy, the process of greening supply chains can be more complex. To optimize total costs and the unfavourable sides of supply chains simultaneously in an uncertain situation, this paper presents a multi-objective mixed integer programming with fuzzy random variables (FRVs) and by using fuzzy theory and fuzzy random chance-constrained programming (FRCCP), the proposed model is converted to deterministic model. This paper can be also suitable for decision making with optimistic, pessimistic and realistic notion. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the model.
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РОМАНОВА, А. И., Э. И. ШАГИАХМЕТОВА, Н. Е. ТРОЕПОЛЬСКАЯ, Д. А. ГАСАН-ЗАДЕ, and Д. Р. ШАЙХУТДИНОВА. "SOCIO-ECONOMIC ORIENTATION TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURIST SERVICES OF A SMALL TOWN ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE CITY OF CHISTOPOL." Экономика и предпринимательство, no. 4(153) (June 15, 2023): 429–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.34925/eip.2023.153.4.083.
Full textAbstract:
Вне зависимости от размера города имеют большое значение для экономического развития регионов. Однако проблемы сокращения численности населения, снижения экономической активности и ухудшение инвестиционной привлекательности являются актуальными на повестке сохранения идентичности и развития постиндустриальных городов. В рамках исследования на примере некогда развитого промышленного центра - города Чистополь, были изучены прогнозные туристические потоки по трем вариантам развития ситуации: оптимистический, наиболее вероятный и пессимистический. Regardless of the size of the city are of great importance for the economic development of the regions. However, the problems of population decline, decline in economic activity and deterioration of investment attractiveness are relevant on the agenda of preserving the identity and development of post-industrial cities. As part of the study, using the example of the once developed industrial center - the city of Chistopol, forecast tourist flows were studied for three scenarios for the development of the situation: optimistic, most probable and pessimistic