Academic literature on the topic 'Overconfidence'

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Journal articles on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Suryani, Arna, and Eva Herianti. "Purposive Sampling Technique and Ordinary Least Square Analysis: Investigating the Relationship Between Managerial Overconfidence, Transfer Pricing and Tax Management in Indonesian Stock Exchange-Listed Firms." International Journal of Professional Business Review 8, no. 8 (2023): e02684. http://dx.doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i8.2684.

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Objective: This study investigates the relationship between managerial overconfidence, transfer pricing, and tax risk, with a focus on tax management's moderating role. Theoretical framework: Tax management is a critical concern due to its pivotal role in financing government activities. Low tax revenues in industries like manufacturing can adversely affect these activities, highlighting the need for effective tax management strategies. Managerial overconfidence can influence these strategies, potentially leading to positive and negative impacts on tax management. Method: Population of this st
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Li, King-King. "Memory Recall Bias of Overconfident and Underconfident Individuals after Feedback." Games 13, no. 3 (2022): 41. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/g13030041.

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We experimentally investigate the memory recall bias of overconfident (underconfident) individuals after receiving feedback on their overconfidence (underconfidence). Our study differs from the literature by identifying the recall pattern conditional on subjects’ overconfidence/underconfidence. We obtain the following results. First, overconfident (underconfident) subjects exhibit overconfident (underconfident) recall despite receiving feedback on their overconfidence (underconfidence). Second, awareness of one’s overconfidence or underconfidence does not eliminate memory recall bias. Third, t
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Santos-Pinto, Luis, and Tiago Pires. "Overconfidence and Timing of Entry." Games 11, no. 4 (2020): 44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/g11040044.

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We analyze the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare using an extension of the quantity commitment game. Players have private information about costs, one player is overconfident, and the other one rational. We find that for slight levels of overconfidence and intermediate cost asymmetries, there is a unique cost-dependent equilibrium where the overconfident player has a higher ex-ante probability of being the Stackelberg leader. Overconfidence lowers the profit of the rational player but can increase that of the overconfident player. Consumer rents i
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Zhou, Hui, Lu Liu, Weifan Jiang, and Shengsheng Li. "Green Supply Chain Decisions and Revenue-Sharing Contracts under Manufacturers’ Overconfidence." Journal of Mathematics 2022 (June 13, 2022): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1035966.

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Overconfidence is a prevalent and potentially catastrophic behaviour in judgment and decision-making. In this paper, we define manufacturers’ overconfidence as a belief bias that they overestimate the impact of product greenness on demand and the accuracy of demand uncertainty. We build a game theory model based on overconfident beliefs, address the decisions of product greenness and price, and discuss the impact of manufacturers’ overconfidence on supply chain decisions and profits. For the adverse effects brought by overconfidence, we further investigate whether revenue-sharing contracts can
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Schanbacher, Peter. "Why Uninformed Agents (Pretend to) Know More." International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences 4, no. 3 (2013): 32–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jsds.2013070102.

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Many social interactions (examples are market overreactions, high rates of acquisitions, strikes, wars) are the result of agents' overconfidence. Agents are in particular overconfident for difficult tasks. This paper analyzes overconfidence in the context of a statistical estimation problem. The authors find that it is rational to (i) be overconfident and (ii) to be notably overconfident if the task is difficult. The counterintuitive finding that uninformed agents which should be the least confident ones show the highest degree of overconfidence can be explained as a rational behavior.
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Guizani, Assil, Ali Harmatallah, and Emna Brahem. "CEO Overconfidence and Cost of Debt: Evidence in the French Context." Bankers, Markets & Investors 179, no. 4 (2025): 0002. https://doi.org/10.54695/bmi.179.0002.

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This study investigates the influence of managerial overconfidence on borrowing cost and the channels through which overconfident CEOs may impact cost of debt. Employing a sample of French companies, we show that overconfidence positively influence cost of debt, and the effect is more prevalent in firms with high business and information risks. Ourresults suggest that creditors associate the presence of overconfident CEOs with high business and information risks and require a high cost of debt for overconfident CEOs. Additionally, we find that the positive influence of CEO overconfidence on co
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Lin, Mei-Chen. "Returns and Investor Behavior in Taiwan: Does Overconfidence Explain this Relationship?" Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 08, no. 03 (2005): 405–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091505000476.

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This paper examines whether overconfidence can explain the relationship between performance and behavior of investors in Taiwan. Different from prior research that used a specific sample of individuals trading records, this work focuses on aggregate investor behavior to know whether overconfidence is a market-wide phenomenon. It is found that overconfident investors will trade more aggressively, and the excessive trading of overconfident investors results in the observed excessive market volatility. However, overconfidence effect exists only following bull markets. After a period of stock gain
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Liu, Jian, Hui Zhou, Miyu Wan, and Lu Liu. "How Does Overconfidence Affect Decision Making of the Green Product Manufacturer?" Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (April 17, 2019): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/5936940.

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Overconfidence is a universal and prevalent cognitive bias affecting decision making in operation management. In this paper, overconfidence is defined as a cognitive bias in which decision makers overestimate the accuracy of demand forecasting or (and) the demand itself. We call these two behaviors overprecision and overestimation, respectively. In order to explore how overconfidence affects decision making of the green product manufacturer, we build the demand function based on the manufacturer’s overconfidence and establish a newsboy-based model. Then the influence of overconfidence on produ
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Malmendier, Ulrike, and Timothy Taylor. "On the Verges of Overconfidence." Journal of Economic Perspectives 29, no. 4 (2015): 3–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.4.3.

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This symposium provides several examples of overconfidence in certain economic contexts. Michael Grubb looks at “Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace.” Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate consider “Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence.” Kent Daniel and David Hirshleifer discuss “Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading.” A number of insights and lessons emerge for our understanding of markets, public policy, and welfare. How do firms take advantage of consumer overconfidence? Might government attempts to rule out such practices end up providin
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Lamptey, Jeff, Asri Bin Marsidi, Bilyaminu Usman, and Ashemi Baba Ali. "The Overconfidence Behavioral Bias in Working Capital Management and Performance of Small and Medium Enterprise in Ghana: A Conceptual Paper." Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities (MJSSH) 5, no. 7 (2020): 124–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.47405/mjssh.v5i7.438.

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The concept of overconfidence is well understood in the financial market and corporate decision as individual investors and managers of large corporations prone to overconfident bias. This paper is the first to conceptualize overconfidence bias in working capital management and performance of Small and medium enterprises by employing qualitative case study inquiry to gain insight and SME managers overconfident behavior. This paper argues that overconfidence bias can distort working capital investment with the possibility of overinvestment working capital inventory if SME managers have enough i
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Pulford, Briony D. "Overconfidence in human judgement." Thesis, University of Leicester, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/234.

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Mulholland, Ron. "The overconfidence bias and entrepreneurs." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0011/NQ42779.pdf.

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Solda, Alice. "Overconfidence as an interpersonal strategy." Thesis, Lyon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020LYSE2010.

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Les modèles économiques standard supposent que les individus collectent et traitent l'information d'une manière qui leur donne une perception relativement précise de la réalité. Cependant, cette hypothèse est souvent remise en question. Les données montrent que les individus forment souvent des préjugés positifs à leur égard, ce qui peut avoir des conséquences économiques néfastes. Cette thèse vise à expliquer la persistance de la surconfiance dans les interactions sociales en montrant l'existence d'avantages stratégiques de la surconfiance qui compensent son coût social.À l'aide d'une série d
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Soldà, Alice. "Overconfidence as an interpersonal strategy." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/135191/1/Alice_Solda_Thesis.pdf.

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Standard economic models assume that individuals collect and process information in a way that gives them a relatively accurate perception of reality. However, data shows that individuals are often overconfident, which can have detrimental economic consequences. This thesis aims to show that individuals benefits from being overconfident in strategic interactions, which would explain the persistence of this bias despite its social cost. This thesis contributes to the literature by enhancing our understanding of the situational determinants of overconfidence in social interactions and lay the fo
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Gustavsson, Anna, and Emma Svenler. "Overconfidence among Swedish private investors : A regression study between the overconfidence behaviour among Swedish private investors and demographic factors." Thesis, Jönköping University, Internationella Handelshögskolan, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-49584.

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Background: For the past 30 years, the neoclassical finance has been questioned bybehavioural finance. The main difference is behavioural finance ́s ability to explain a behaviour that deviate from rationality. One of the major biases within behavioural finance is overconfidence. Overconfident behaviour describes an investor with too strong belief in their own ability. This bias is not well-examined within behavioural finance in Sweden. The consequences of overconfidence are the investor ́s overvaluation skills which in turn leads to unnecessary risk-taking, excessive trading and economic loss
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Lipko, Amanda Rae. "Preschoolers' persistent overconfidence in their recall memory." [Kent, Ohio] : Kent State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=kent1214583736.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Kent State University, 2008.<br>Title from PDF t.p. (viewed Oct. 5, 2009). Advisor: William Merriman. Keywords: metacognition; recall memory; cognitive development. Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-71).
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Xu, Bin. "Corporate financing decisions : the role of managerial overconfidence." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2014. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/16652.

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This thesis examines the effects of managerial overconfidence on corporate financing decisions. Overconfident managers tend to overestimate the mean of future cash flow and underestimate the volatility of future cash flow. We propose a novel time-varying measure of overconfidence, which is based on computational linguistic analysis of what the managers said (i.e. Chairman s Statement). The overconfidence of CEO and CFO is also constructed based on what the managers did (i.e. how they trade their own firms shares). We conduct three empirical studies that offer new insights into the roles of man
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Soriano, Flavio de Oliveira. "Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13497.

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Submitted by Flavio Soriano (flavio.soriano@hotmail.com) on 2015-03-07T17:18:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_MPGI_Overconfidence and Confirmation Bias_Flavio Soriano.pdf: 1280021 bytes, checksum: 3d8e4c16ffd1a93c2e17526cdf8e8c77 (MD5)<br>Rejected by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Flávio, Por gentileza, altere o campo "knowledge field" para : INTERNACIONALIZAÇÃO DE EMPRESAS, pois este item deve ser o mesmo escrito na ata. Obrigada. Atenciosamente, Luana de Assis Rodrigues Cursos de Pós-Graduação – Post Graduate Program (55 11) 3799-3492 SRA - Secretari
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Klauss, Christopher Philipp. "Capital investment decisions with managerial overconfidence and regret aversion." Thesis, University of Bath, 2006. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.428354.

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This research investigated the potential effects of managerial overconfidence and regret aversion in a corporate capital investment context. Three fundamental decision problems are analysed: Project selection (accepting or rejecting a proposed investment), managerial effort, and project evaluation (continuing or abandoning a failing investment). Very little previous research has looked at the role of psychological biases in corporate finance decisions, and the joint analysis of the two studied biases within one model is also a fairly novel contribution. Solving by backward induction a theoreti
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Zhou, Jie. "Managerial overconfidence and corporate policy decisions in UK companies." Thesis, University of York, 2008. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/14125/.

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Managerial overconfidence, as a particular form of managerial irrationality, concerns that some managers are less than completely rational and tend to overestimate the outcome of the investment projects under their control. This study focuses on the impact of managerial overconfidence on corporate policy decisions. There are two main objectives. First, it explores the consequences of managerial overconfidence for investment decisions and the cash holding policy by emphasizing the role of financial constraints. Second, it investigates the potential role of managerial overconfidence in determini
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Books on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Invernizzi, Anna. Overconfidence in SMEs. Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66920-5.

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Malmendier, Ulrike. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Steen, Eric Van den. Overconfidence by bayesian rational agents. Harvard Business School, 2010.

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Malmendier, Ulrike. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Ben-David, Itzhak. Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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Peng, Lin. Investor attention: Overconfidence and category learning. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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Grinblatt, Mark. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Benigno, Pierpaolo. Overconfidence, subjective perception and pricing behavior. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Grinblatt, Mark. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Burnside, Craig. Investor overconfidence and the forward premium puzzle. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010.

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Book chapters on the topic "Overconfidence"

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May, Regine S. "Overconfidence In Overconfidence." In Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory. Springer Netherlands, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3146-9_3.

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Moore, Don A., and Amelia S. Dev. "Overconfidence." In Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences. Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24612-3_1157.

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Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. "Overconfidence." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-00772-8_323.

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Glaser, Markus, and Martin Weber. "Overconfidence." In Behavioral Finance. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118258415.ch13.

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Moore, Don A., and Amelia S. Dev. "Overconfidence." In Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28099-8_1157-1.

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Hemforth, Barbara. "Overconfidence." In Encyclopedia of the Sciences of Learning. Springer US, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1428-6_180.

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Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. "Overconfidence." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-94848-2_323-1.

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Brodsky, Stanley L. "Overconfidence." In Coping with cross-examination and other pathways to effective testimony. American Psychological Association, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10748-013.

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Nofsinger, John R. "Overconfidence." In The Psychology of Investing, 7th ed. Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003159704-2.

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Hoffrage, Ulrich. "Overconfidence." In Cognitive Illusions, 3rd ed. Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003154730-21.

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Conference papers on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Correia Marques, Joao Marcos, Albert J. Zhai, Shenlong Wang, and Kris Hauser. "On the Overconfidence Problem in Semantic 3D Mapping." In 2024 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icra57147.2024.10611306.

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Das, Tapas, Shikha Arora, Shiju Sebastian, Seshanwita Das, Akhilesh Tiwari, and Rajesh Verma. "The Role of Overconfidence in Trading: Behavioral Patterns and Market Impacts." In 2024 Second International Conference Computational and Characterization Techniques in Engineering & Sciences (IC3TES). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/ic3tes62412.2024.10877606.

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Ni, Shiyu, Keping Bi, Jiafeng Guo, and Xueqi Cheng. "When Do LLMs Need Retrieval Augmentation? Mitigating LLMs’ Overconfidence Helps Retrieval Augmentation." In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics ACL 2024. Association for Computational Linguistics, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2024.findings-acl.675.

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Kim, Gyoung Taek, Hyun Sik Hwang, Sung Lyong Oh, and Byong Mu Kim. "Case Studies of Corrosion Failures in Oil Refineries." In CORROSION 2010. NACE International, 2010. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2010-10354.

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Abstract This paper describes three corrosion case histories caused by overconfidence and lack of thorough understanding of the corroding systems. The first case history is exchanger tube failure from excessive high temperature sulfidation caused by changes of operation condition, run length and cleaning interval. The second case is about presumably hydrogen induced cracking(HIC) and high temperature hydrogen attack(HTHA) during weld repair and heat treatment in wet sour service. Inappropriate mixing of process streams was the cause of failure discussed in the third case history.
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Gupta, Pooja. "Overconfidence Bias And Trading Volume From Indian Stock Market By Vector Autoregression Testing." In 2024 International Conference on Electrical Electronics and Computing Technologies (ICEECT). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iceect61758.2024.10738910.

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Hadzimustafa, Shenaj, and Nermine Shabani. "THE IMPACT OF OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS ON PERSONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS: THE CASE OF NORTH MACEDONIA." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2020.0008.

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The "Financial Behavior" in the field of "decision making" is the topic that awarded the economist Richard H. Thaler the Nobel Prize in 2017. According to him, after many investigations made on human decisions, it is noticed that they often depend on nature, intuition, habits, cognitive biases, emotional biases which lead the investor to wrong decisions. Given that the investments play an important and central role in the economy, the main purpose of the paper is to analyze the investment decision making process based on emotional bias, or more specifically the overconfidence bias. This study
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Yilmaz, Neslihan. "CEO overconfidence." In 2010 International Conference on Financial Theory and Engineering (ICFTE). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icfte.2010.5499429.

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Qiao, Xinxin, and Shengyu Xu. "Manager Overconfidence and Corporate Performance." In 2019 16th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsssm.2019.8887679.

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Wu, Cuifeng, and Kunyue Zhang. "Overconfidence, management and firm value." In ICCMB 2022: 2022 5th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business. ACM, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3512676.3512692.

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Takumi, Kuno, Kazunori Kaede, and Keiichi Watanuki. "Evaluation of Driver Overconfidence in Automotive Driving Using Physiological Data." In 16th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2025). AHFE International, 2025. https://doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1006056.

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This research aims to explore a method for the real-time evaluation of overconfidence during car driving. Overconfidence can lead to dangerous driving behaviors, making real-time detection crucial to reduce traffic accidents. In this study, a driving simulation environment was created using virtual reality (VR), and a right-turning scenario was used to encourage overconfidence during the experiment. The driving behavior data (accelerator, brake, and steering), physiological data (skin conductance and electrocardiogram (ECG)), and driving footage were recorded simultaneously. Overconfidence was
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Reports on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Cafferata, Fernando G., Patricio Domínguez, and Carlos Scartascini. Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety. Inter-American Development Bank, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004855.

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Overconfidence leads to risky behavior, including when people are around guns. Does overconfidence also shape attitudes about gun ownership and use? We evaluate this possibility by conducting nationally representative surveys in six countries in the Americas, including the United States. Results show that overconfident individuals are more willing to accept the use of guns and more likely to declare their willingness to use guns. These results indicate that overconfidence is a significant behavioral trait correlated with attitudes toward weapons handling, ownership, carrying, and use. Overall,
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Lazear, Edward. Overconfidence and Occupational Choice. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21921.

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Galasso, Alberto, and Timothy Simcoe. CEO Overconfidence and Innovation. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16041.

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Ortoleva, Pietro, and Erik Snowberg. Overconfidence in Political Behavior. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19250.

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Ben-David, Itzhak, John Graham, and Campbell Harvey. Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13711.

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Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey Tate. CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w10807.

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Daniel, Kent, Alexander Klos, and Simon Rottke. Overconfidence, Information Diffusion, and Mispricing Persistence. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w25346.

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Peng, Lin, and Wei Xiong. Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11400.

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Benigno, Pierpaolo, and Anastasios Karantounias. Overconfidence, Subjective Perception and Pricing Behavior. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11922.

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Grinblatt, Mark, and Matti Keloharju. Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12223.

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