Relevant bibliographies by topics / Overconfidence

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Academic literature on the topic 'Overconfidence'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 25 May 2024

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Journal articles on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Suryani, Arna, and Eva Herianti. "Purposive Sampling Technique and Ordinary Least Square Analysis: Investigating the Relationship Between Managerial Overconfidence, Transfer Pricing and Tax Management in Indonesian Stock Exchange-Listed Firms." International Journal of Professional Business Review 8, no. 8 (August 1, 2023): e02684. http://dx.doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i8.2684.

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Objective: This study investigates the relationship between managerial overconfidence, transfer pricing, and tax risk, with a focus on tax management's moderating role. Theoretical framework: Tax management is a critical concern due to its pivotal role in financing government activities. Low tax revenues in industries like manufacturing can adversely affect these activities, highlighting the need for effective tax management strategies. Managerial overconfidence can influence these strategies, potentially leading to positive and negative impacts on tax management. Method: Population of this study was manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2014-2019 period. The analysis made from 2015-2019, while 2014 was used as the basis to estimate the sales and asset growth as the proxy of managerial overconfidence. The sample of this study was selected using purposive sampling technique with the following criteria, manufacturing companies listed in IDX in 2014-2019 period, the company should have at least five companies in sub sector to estimate the managerial overconfidence per subsector to obtain data variation. Results and conclusion: Findings indicate a significant relationship between managerial overconfidence and tax management, with managers demonstrating overconfidence tending to employ aggressive tax management strategies, thus minimizing tax payments. Furthermore, this study reveals inconsistencies in the research surrounding overconfidence's impact on tax management, necessitating further exploration. Implications of the research: These results have implications for understanding the role of managerial traits in the decision-making process and developing effective tax management strategies to maximize government revenue. Originality/Value: The present study confirms the agency theory's efficiency perspective, stating that overconfident managers may minimize tax management practice due to risk contingency or because they consider the long-term benefit cost. Overconfident managers are viewed as more effective in taking advantage of the growth potential, allowing them to enhance the organization's performance instead of minimizing tax payment that contains risk contingency.
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Li, King-King. "Memory Recall Bias of Overconfident and Underconfident Individuals after Feedback." Games 13, no. 3 (May 23, 2022): 41. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/g13030041.

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We experimentally investigate the memory recall bias of overconfident (underconfident) individuals after receiving feedback on their overconfidence (underconfidence). Our study differs from the literature by identifying the recall pattern conditional on subjects’ overconfidence/underconfidence. We obtain the following results. First, overconfident (underconfident) subjects exhibit overconfident (underconfident) recall despite receiving feedback on their overconfidence (underconfidence). Second, awareness of one’s overconfidence or underconfidence does not eliminate memory recall bias. Third, the primacy effect is stronger than the recency effect. Overall, our results suggest that memory recall bias is mainly due to motivated beliefs of sophisticated decision makers rather than naïve decision-making.
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Santos-Pinto, Luis, and Tiago Pires. "Overconfidence and Timing of Entry." Games 11, no. 4 (October 12, 2020): 44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/g11040044.

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We analyze the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare using an extension of the quantity commitment game. Players have private information about costs, one player is overconfident, and the other one rational. We find that for slight levels of overconfidence and intermediate cost asymmetries, there is a unique cost-dependent equilibrium where the overconfident player has a higher ex-ante probability of being the Stackelberg leader. Overconfidence lowers the profit of the rational player but can increase that of the overconfident player. Consumer rents increase with overconfidence while producer rents decrease which leads to an ambiguous welfare effect.
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Zhou, Hui, Lu Liu, Weifan Jiang, and Shengsheng Li. "Green Supply Chain Decisions and Revenue-Sharing Contracts under Manufacturers’ Overconfidence." Journal of Mathematics 2022 (June 13, 2022): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/1035966.

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Overconfidence is a prevalent and potentially catastrophic behaviour in judgment and decision-making. In this paper, we define manufacturers’ overconfidence as a belief bias that they overestimate the impact of product greenness on demand and the accuracy of demand uncertainty. We build a game theory model based on overconfident beliefs, address the decisions of product greenness and price, and discuss the impact of manufacturers’ overconfidence on supply chain decisions and profits. For the adverse effects brought by overconfidence, we further investigate whether revenue-sharing contracts can coordinate green supply chains. We find three new insights. (1) Manufacturers’ overconfidence leads to higher product greenness, a higher wholesale price, and a greater retail price, but resulting in lower profits. (2) Under the cooperation based on revenue-sharing contracts, product greenness is greater, and wholesale price is lower than the case without cooperation. The greenness increases with the manufacturer’s overconfidence, but counter-intuitively, the wholesale price is not affected by overconfidence. (3) Both the overconfident manufacturer and the retailer have an incentive to reach a revenue-sharing contract. Retailers benefit from collaboration, and overconfident manufacturers assume that retailers can make more profit through revenue sharing, but this model does not exist.
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Schanbacher, Peter. "Why Uninformed Agents (Pretend to) Know More." International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences 4, no. 3 (July 2013): 32–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jsds.2013070102.

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Many social interactions (examples are market overreactions, high rates of acquisitions, strikes, wars) are the result of agents' overconfidence. Agents are in particular overconfident for difficult tasks. This paper analyzes overconfidence in the context of a statistical estimation problem. The authors find that it is rational to (i) be overconfident and (ii) to be notably overconfident if the task is difficult. The counterintuitive finding that uninformed agents which should be the least confident ones show the highest degree of overconfidence can be explained as a rational behavior.
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Lin, Mei-Chen. "Returns and Investor Behavior in Taiwan: Does Overconfidence Explain this Relationship?" Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 08, no. 03 (September 2005): 405–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091505000476.

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This paper examines whether overconfidence can explain the relationship between performance and behavior of investors in Taiwan. Different from prior research that used a specific sample of individuals trading records, this work focuses on aggregate investor behavior to know whether overconfidence is a market-wide phenomenon. It is found that overconfident investors will trade more aggressively, and the excessive trading of overconfident investors results in the observed excessive market volatility. However, overconfidence effect exists only following bull markets. After a period of stock gains, overconfident traders tend to title their investment toward smaller-cap and growth stocks, consistent with the prediction of overconfident hypothesis that as investors become overconfident, they underestimate risk and thereby trade in riskier stocks.
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Liu, Jian, Hui Zhou, Miyu Wan, and Lu Liu. "How Does Overconfidence Affect Decision Making of the Green Product Manufacturer?" Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (April 17, 2019): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/5936940.

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Overconfidence is a universal and prevalent cognitive bias affecting decision making in operation management. In this paper, overconfidence is defined as a cognitive bias in which decision makers overestimate the accuracy of demand forecasting or (and) the demand itself. We call these two behaviors overprecision and overestimation, respectively. In order to explore how overconfidence affects decision making of the green product manufacturer, we build the demand function based on the manufacturer’s overconfidence and establish a newsboy-based model. Then the influence of overconfidence on product greenness, output, and profit is mainly discussed. We have several new sights as follows. First, overconfidence makes the manufacturer produce greener products than the rational manufacturer, and overestimation results in a higher greenness deviation than overprecision. Second, the influence of overconfidence on the output of green products is quite different from that of nongreen products. Specifically speaking, overestimation makes the manufacturer produce more products than the rational manufacturer, so do the overprecision manufacturer and the dual-overconfident manufacturer under the low-profit condition. But in high-profit condition, when greening investment factor is low and (or) consumers are sensitive enough to greenness, the overprecision manufacturer produces more than the rational manufacturer; when the level of overestimation exceeds a threshold, output of the dual-overconfident is greater than that of the rational manufacturer. Third, overconfidence makes the real profit of the manufacturer less than optimal profit of the rational manufacturer. There is a positive cross-effect of overprecision and overestimation in real profit of the dual-overconfident manufacturer. That is, to some extent, one kind of overconfidence can offset the decline in profit caused by the other kind of overconfidence.
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Malmendier, Ulrike, and Timothy Taylor. "On the Verges of Overconfidence." Journal of Economic Perspectives 29, no. 4 (November 1, 2015): 3–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.4.3.

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This symposium provides several examples of overconfidence in certain economic contexts. Michael Grubb looks at “Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace.” Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate consider “Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence.” Kent Daniel and David Hirshleifer discuss “Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading.” A number of insights and lessons emerge for our understanding of markets, public policy, and welfare. How do firms take advantage of consumer overconfidence? Might government attempts to rule out such practices end up providing benefits to some consumers but imposing costs on others? How are empirical measures of CEO overconfidence related to investment and the capital structure of firms? Can overconfidence among at least some investors help to explain prominent anomalies in stock markets like high levels of trading volume and certain predictable patterns in stock market returns?
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Lamptey, Jeff, Asri Bin Marsidi, Bilyaminu Usman, and Ashemi Baba Ali. "The Overconfidence Behavioral Bias in Working Capital Management and Performance of Small and Medium Enterprise in Ghana: A Conceptual Paper." Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities (MJSSH) 5, no. 7 (July 10, 2020): 124–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.47405/mjssh.v5i7.438.

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The concept of overconfidence is well understood in the financial market and corporate decision as individual investors and managers of large corporations prone to overconfident bias. This paper is the first to conceptualize overconfidence bias in working capital management and performance of Small and medium enterprises by employing qualitative case study inquiry to gain insight and SME managers overconfident behavior. This paper argues that overconfidence bias can distort working capital investment with the possibility of overinvestment working capital inventory if SME managers have enough internal equity in anticipation of higher performance.
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Kwon, Young Min, and Jin Wook Kim. "CEO Overconfidence and Voluntary Management Forecasts." Korean Accounting Information Association 41, no. 2 (June 30, 2023): 57–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.29189/kaiaair.41.2.3.

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[Purpose]Managers’ personal characteristics play an important role in corporate decision－making. Overconfidence, one of the personal characteristics of managers, refers to the tendency to overestimate managers’ own abilities and the probability of positive events happening to them. Therefore, overconfident CEOs are likely to overestimate the returns to their investment projects and to misperceive a negative net present value project as value creating. This study, therefore, examines whether overconfident CEOs are more likely to issue a management forecast. We also investigate whether CEO overconfident is related to the accuracy of forecast. [Methodology]Our sample consists of 6,310 firm－year observations of firms listed on the Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) market of the Korea Exchange (KRX) for the period from 2003 to 2015. We measure CEO overconfidence using empirical measure that has been developed by Ahmed and Duellman (2013) and Schrand and Zechman (2012). [Findings]We find that CEO overconfidence is positively associated with the likelihood of issuing a management forecast. In addition, we find that overconfidence is negatively related to the accuracy of management forecasts. These findings imply that overconfident CEOs are more likely to issue a management forecast and that their forecasts are less accurate. [Implications]Our study contributes to our understanding of why some managers voluntarily issue forecasts while others do not. The result of this study implies that overconfidence, among the personal characteristics of managers, affects the motivation for voluntary management forecasts. In addition, the result that overconfident CEOs issue less accurate forecasts supports prior studies that CEO overconfidence is a potential factor that can hinder the optimal corporate decision－making.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Pulford, Briony D. "Overconfidence in human judgement." Thesis, University of Leicester, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/234.

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Mulholland, Ron. "The overconfidence bias and entrepreneurs." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0011/NQ42779.pdf.

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Solda, Alice. "Overconfidence as an interpersonal strategy." Thesis, Lyon, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020LYSE2010.

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Les modèles économiques standard supposent que les individus collectent et traitent l'information d'une manière qui leur donne une perception relativement précise de la réalité. Cependant, cette hypothèse est souvent remise en question. Les données montrent que les individus forment souvent des préjugés positifs à leur égard, ce qui peut avoir des conséquences économiques néfastes. Cette thèse vise à expliquer la persistance de la surconfiance dans les interactions sociales en montrant l'existence d'avantages stratégiques de la surconfiance qui compensent son coût social.À l'aide d'une série d'expériences en laboratoire, cette thèse montre que (i) la surconfiance se manifeste principalement lorsqu'elle procure un avantage dans les interactions sociales (chapitre 2) et (ii) identifie les situations dans lesquelles la surconfiance est susceptible de nuire à la société (chapitres 3 et 4). Cette thèse contribue à la littérature en améliorant notre compréhension des déterminants situationnels de la surconfiance dans les interactions sociales et posent les bases pour améliorer les politiques visant à prévenir ou à limiter les effets négatifs
Standard economic models assume that individuals collect and process information in a way that gives them a relatively accurate perception of reality. However, this assumption is often violated. Data shows that individuals often form positively biased beliefs about themselves, which can have detrimental economic con-sequences. This thesis aims to explain the persistence of overconfidence in social interactions by showing the existence of strategic benefits of being overconfident that offset its social cost.Using a series of laboratory experiments, this thesis shows that (i) overconfidence emerges primarily when it provides an advantage in social interactions (Chapter2) and (ii) identify situations in which overconfidence is likely to be socially detrimental (Chapter 3 and 4). This thesis contributes to the literature by enhancing our understanding of the situational determinants of overconfidence in social interactions and lay the foundations to improve policies intended to prevent or limit its negative effects
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Soldà, Alice. "Overconfidence as an interpersonal strategy." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/135191/1/Alice_Solda_Thesis.pdf.

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Standard economic models assume that individuals collect and process information in a way that gives them a relatively accurate perception of reality. However, data shows that individuals are often overconfident, which can have detrimental economic consequences. This thesis aims to show that individuals benefits from being overconfident in strategic interactions, which would explain the persistence of this bias despite its social cost. This thesis contributes to the literature by enhancing our understanding of the situational determinants of overconfidence in social interactions and lay the foundations to improve policies intended to prevent or limit its negative effects.
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Gustavsson, Anna, and Emma Svenler. "Overconfidence among Swedish private investors : A regression study between the overconfidence behaviour among Swedish private investors and demographic factors." Thesis, Jönköping University, Internationella Handelshögskolan, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-49584.

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Background: For the past 30 years, the neoclassical finance has been questioned bybehavioural finance. The main difference is behavioural finance ́s ability to explain a behaviour that deviate from rationality. One of the major biases within behavioural finance is overconfidence. Overconfident behaviour describes an investor with too strong belief in their own ability. This bias is not well-examined within behavioural finance in Sweden. The consequences of overconfidence are the investor ́s overvaluation skills which in turn leads to unnecessary risk-taking, excessive trading and economic losses. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate if the overconfident bias exists among Swedish private investors. A study if the demographic factors; gender, age, marital status, education, and experience effect the level of overconfident behaviour. Further, an investigation to identify industries overconfident investors prefer or despise. Method: Our study use a deductive approach with a quantitative research. From the basis of previous studies, five hypotheses explaining a relation between demographic factors and overconfidence have been formulated. The data is collected through an online survey, published in finance forums between 2020-03-10 to 2020-03-22 which gave 233 participants. A binary logistic model was performed in STATA to examine if the hypothesis should be rejected or not. Conclusion: The findings from our study show presence of overconfidence among Swedish private investors. Statistically significant results confirm that gender, age, education, and experience have an impact on overconfident behaviour. Men are more overconfident than women, younger investors act more overconfident, higher education increase overconfidence, and more experienced investors are more overconfident.
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Lipko, Amanda Rae. "Preschoolers' persistent overconfidence in their recall memory." [Kent, Ohio] : Kent State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=kent1214583736.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Kent State University, 2008.
Title from PDF t.p. (viewed Oct. 5, 2009). Advisor: William Merriman. Keywords: metacognition; recall memory; cognitive development. Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-71).
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Xu, Bin. "Corporate financing decisions : the role of managerial overconfidence." Thesis, Loughborough University, 2014. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/16652.

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This thesis examines the effects of managerial overconfidence on corporate financing decisions. Overconfident managers tend to overestimate the mean of future cash flow and underestimate the volatility of future cash flow. We propose a novel time-varying measure of overconfidence, which is based on computational linguistic analysis of what the managers said (i.e. Chairman s Statement). The overconfidence of CEO and CFO is also constructed based on what the managers did (i.e. how they trade their own firms shares). We conduct three empirical studies that offer new insights into the roles of managerial overconfidence in the leverage decision (i.e. debt level), pecking order behaviour (i.e. the preference for debt over equity financing) and debt maturity decision (i.e. short-term debt vs. long-term debt). Study 1 documents a negative overconfidence-leverage relationship. This new finding suggests that debt conservatism associated with managerial overconfidence might be a potential explanation for the low leverage puzzle: some firms maintain low leverage, without taking tax benefits of debt, because overconfident managers believe that firm securities are undervalued by investors and thus are too costly (Malmendier, Tate and Yan, 2011). Study 2 finds managerial overconfidence leads to reverse pecking order preference especially in small firms, which sheds light on the pecking order puzzle that smaller firms with higher information costs surprisingly exhibit weaker pecking order preference. This new evidence is consistent with Hackbarth s (2008) theory that overconfident managers who underestimate the riskiness of earnings tend to prefer equity to debt financing. Study 3 finds managerial overconfidence leads to higher debt maturity. This evidence supports our proposition that overconfidence can mitigate the underinvestment problem (which is often the major concern of long-term debt investors) (Hackbarth, 2009), which in turn allows overconfident managers to use more and cheaper long-term debt. This evidence also implies that overconfidence may mitigate the agency cost of debt. Overall, our empirical analysis suggests that managerial overconfidence has significant incremental explanatory power for corporate financing decisions.
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Soriano, Flavio de Oliveira. "Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?" reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/13497.

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Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.
Tomadores de decisão muitas vezes usam 'regras gerais', ou heurística, para ajudá-los a lidar com situações de tomada de decisão (Kahneman e Tversky, 1979b). Esses atalhos cognitivos são tomados pelo cérebro para lidar com a complexidade e pressão de tempo da tomada de decisão, reduzindo assim a carga de processamento de informação (Hodgkinson et al , 1999; Newell e Simon , 1972). Embora fundamental para a tomada de decisões, a heurística tem o custo de, ocasionalmente, nos tirar do curso, isto é, fazer-nos cair em armadilhas de julgamento (Tversky e Kahneman, 1974). Mais de 50 anos de pesquisa em psicologia tem mostrado que a heurística pode levar a erros sistemáticos, ou vieses, na tomada de decisão. Este estudo se concentra em dois vieses particularmente impactantes para a tomada de decisão - o excesso de confiança e o viés de confirmação. Um grupo específico – estudantes de administração e recém-formados de escolas de negócio internacionalmente renomadas – foi submetido a experimentos clássicos para medir seu nível de suscetibilidade a esses dois vieses. Esta população tende a assumir posições de decisão nas empresas, e, eventualmente, tomar decisões que terão impacto não só nas suas empresas, mas na sociedade em geral. Os resultados mostram que essa população é fortemente influenciada por excesso de confiança, mas nem tanto pelo viés de confirmação. Nenhuma relação significativa entre o excesso de confiança e a suscetibilidade ao viés de confirmação foi encontrada.
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Klauss, Christopher Philipp. "Capital investment decisions with managerial overconfidence and regret aversion." Thesis, University of Bath, 2006. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.428354.

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This research investigated the potential effects of managerial overconfidence and regret aversion in a corporate capital investment context. Three fundamental decision problems are analysed: Project selection (accepting or rejecting a proposed investment), managerial effort, and project evaluation (continuing or abandoning a failing investment). Very little previous research has looked at the role of psychological biases in corporate finance decisions, and the joint analysis of the two studied biases within one model is also a fairly novel contribution. Solving by backward induction a theoretically derived model integrating these decisions as well as overconfidence and regret aversion, I outline the conditions under which a biased manager will make choices that are inefficient from a shareholder value perspective; however, the model also reveals that, in combination, the two psychological phenomena may off-set such that the optimal outcome can be obtained. I further demonstrate how my theoretical propositions can be supplemented with empirical data by means of a survey and two different experiments. The survey of UK managers with capital investment responsibility exposes the pervasiveness of overconfidence and regret aversion within the sample group. In addition, indications for potential associations between these biases and certain capital investment decision choices are found. To my knowledge, no such empirical study exists so far. To explore potential causal relationships between overconfidence and effort, overconfidence and project selection, as well as regret aversion and project evaluation choices, two experiments were designed and conducted. The experimental data provides tentative support for the model and indicates the potential value of largerscale future research. I close by discussing the implications of my results for corporate governance and suggesting avenues for future work in this area.
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Zhou, Jie. "Managerial overconfidence and corporate policy decisions in UK companies." Thesis, University of York, 2008. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/14125/.

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Managerial overconfidence, as a particular form of managerial irrationality, concerns that some managers are less than completely rational and tend to overestimate the outcome of the investment projects under their control. This study focuses on the impact of managerial overconfidence on corporate policy decisions. There are two main objectives. First, it explores the consequences of managerial overconfidence for investment decisions and the cash holding policy by emphasizing the role of financial constraints. Second, it investigates the potential role of managerial overconfidence in determining debt maturity. Using an original and very detailed dataset for a large sample of UK listed firms, we show that investment by overconfident managers tend to be more sensitive to internal funds in financially constrained firms identified by leverage, dividend, age and cash. Meanwhile, a cash holding policy can be associated with investment decision by overconfident managers. We argue that, though investment can increase cash flow sensitivity of cash in financially constrained fines identified by leverage and dividend, managerial overconfidence can reduce this positive relationship. Moreover, managerial overconfidence can induce a biased debt maturity structure. It seems that overconfident managers can take advantage of short-term debt to signal their perceived firms' quality to the market. Hence, firms with managerial overconfidence tend to increase the negative relationship between long-term debt and firms' quality. Finally, we find that the impact of managerial overconfidence on corporate decision can also vary with different corporate governance mechanisms. We show that the impact of managerial overconfidence on corporate policies in firms with weak corporate governance mechanisms (i. e. lower ratio of non-executive directors in boards, lower blockholders' ownership) is pronounced, whereas, in firms with good corporate governance mechanisms, it turns to be insignificant.
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Books on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Invernizzi, Anna. Overconfidence in SMEs. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66920-5.

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Malmendier, Ulrike. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Malmendier, Ulrike. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Steen, Eric Van den. Overconfidence by bayesian rational agents. [Boston]: Harvard Business School, 2010.

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Ben-David, Itzhak. Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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Peng, Lin. Investor attention: Overconfidence and category learning. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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Grinblatt, Mark. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Benigno, Pierpaolo. Overconfidence, subjective perception and pricing behavior. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Grinblatt, Mark. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Burnside, Craig. Investor overconfidence and the forward premium puzzle. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010.

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Book chapters on the topic "Overconfidence"

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May, Regine S. "Overconfidence In Overconfidence." In Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory, 67–75. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3146-9_3.

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Moore, Don A., and Amelia S. Dev. "Overconfidence." In Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences, 3382–86. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24612-3_1157.

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Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. "Overconfidence." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, 1236–46. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-00772-8_323.

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Glaser, Markus, and Martin Weber. "Overconfidence." In Behavioral Finance, 241–58. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118258415.ch13.

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Moore, Don A., and Amelia S. Dev. "Overconfidence." In Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences, 1–5. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28099-8_1157-1.

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Hemforth, Barbara. "Overconfidence." In Encyclopedia of the Sciences of Learning, 2540–43. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-1428-6_180.

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Russo, J. Edward, and Paul J. H. Schoemaker. "Overconfidence." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, 1–11. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-94848-2_323-1.

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Brodsky, Stanley L. "Overconfidence." In Coping with cross-examination and other pathways to effective testimony., 65–67. Washington: American Psychological Association, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/10748-013.

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Nofsinger, John R. "Overconfidence." In The Psychology of Investing, 13–26. 7th ed. New York: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003159704-2.

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Hoffrage, Ulrich. "Overconfidence." In Cognitive Illusions, 287–306. 3rd ed. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003154730-21.

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Conference papers on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Hadzimustafa, Shenaj, and Nermine Shabani. "THE IMPACT OF OVERCONFIDENCE BIAS ON PERSONAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS: THE CASE OF NORTH MACEDONIA." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2020.0008.

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The "Financial Behavior" in the field of "decision making" is the topic that awarded the economist Richard H. Thaler the Nobel Prize in 2017. According to him, after many investigations made on human decisions, it is noticed that they often depend on nature, intuition, habits, cognitive biases, emotional biases which lead the investor to wrong decisions. Given that the investments play an important and central role in the economy, the main purpose of the paper is to analyze the investment decision making process based on emotional bias, or more specifically the overconfidence bias. This study captures the impact of gender, and level of education on overconfidence during investment decision making in North Macedonia. The results show that investors' decisions were significantly influenced by the overconfidence bias. Although men and women are found to be overconfident, studies have shown that the degree of overconfidence varies among them and men are more overconfident than women. Also, overconfidence increases with the level of education. Based on the results certain recommendations are provided in order to assist future investment decision-making processes by notifying and eliminating the overconfidence bias identified during this research as a key factor leading to wrong and failing, non-rational investment decision making.
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Yilmaz, Neslihan. "CEO overconfidence." In 2010 International Conference on Financial Theory and Engineering (ICFTE). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icfte.2010.5499429.

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Qiao, Xinxin, and Shengyu Xu. "Manager Overconfidence and Corporate Performance." In 2019 16th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management (ICSSSM). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsssm.2019.8887679.

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Wu, Cuifeng, and Kunyue Zhang. "Overconfidence, management and firm value." In ICCMB 2022: 2022 5th International Conference on Computers in Management and Business. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3512676.3512692.

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Meronen, Lassi, Martin Trapp, Andrea Pilzer, Le Yang, and Arno Solin. "Fixing Overconfidence in Dynamic Neural Networks." In 2024 IEEE/CVF Winter Conference on Applications of Computer Vision (WACV). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wacv57701.2024.00266.

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Takahashi, Hiroshi, and Takao Terano. "Emergence of Overconfidence Investors in Financial Markets." In 9th Joint Conference on Information Sciences. Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/jcis.2006.338.

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Wrońska-Bukalska, Elżbieta. "OVERCONFIDENCE OF STUDENTS AND MANAGERS - COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS." In 6th Economics & Finance Conference, OECD Headquarters, Paris. International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.20472/efc.2016.006.020.

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Orlando, Beatrice, Antonio Renzi, Giuseppe Sancetta, and Gianluca Vagnani. "Overconfidence and risk behavior in family firms." In Corporate Governance: Search for the advanced practices. Virtus Interpress, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cpr19a4.

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Maurer, Karsten, and Walter Bennette. "Facility Locations Utility for Uncovering Classifier Overconfidence." In 2019 18th IEEE International Conference On Machine Learning And Applications (ICMLA). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icmla.2019.00071.

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Yan, Yong-hai. "Enterprise Life Cycle Managerial Overconfidence and Capital Structure." In 2010 International Conference on E-Product E-Service and E-Entertainment (ICEEE 2010). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iceee.2010.5661449.

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Reports on the topic "Overconfidence"

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Cafferata, Fernando G., Patricio Domínguez, and Carlos Scartascini. Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety. Inter-American Development Bank, April 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004855.

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Overconfidence leads to risky behavior, including when people are around guns. Does overconfidence also shape attitudes about gun ownership and use? We evaluate this possibility by conducting nationally representative surveys in six countries in the Americas, including the United States. Results show that overconfident individuals are more willing to accept the use of guns and more likely to declare their willingness to use guns. These results indicate that overconfidence is a significant behavioral trait correlated with attitudes toward weapons handling, ownership, carrying, and use. Overall, over-confidence could lead, in equilibrium, to lower regulation than optimal and a higher amount of guns, even before considering the effect of the electoral system, lobbying, and campaign contributions. Efforts to correct the biases of individuals confronted with making decisions about guns should be a priority, especially in regulatory contexts. Information about actual performance and the risks entailed by wrong choices is a must. Obliging individuals to reflect on their choices may also help correct observed biases.
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Lazear, Edward. Overconfidence and Occupational Choice. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21921.

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Galasso, Alberto, and Timothy Simcoe. CEO Overconfidence and Innovation. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16041.

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Ortoleva, Pietro, and Erik Snowberg. Overconfidence in Political Behavior. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19250.

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Ben-David, Itzhak, John Graham, and Campbell Harvey. Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w13711.

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Malmendier, Ulrike, and Geoffrey Tate. CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w10807.

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Daniel, Kent, Alexander Klos, and Simon Rottke. Overconfidence, Information Diffusion, and Mispricing Persistence. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w25346.

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Peng, Lin, and Wei Xiong. Investor Attention: Overconfidence and Category Learning. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11400.

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Benigno, Pierpaolo, and Anastasios Karantounias. Overconfidence, Subjective Perception and Pricing Behavior. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11922.

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Grinblatt, Mark, and Matti Keloharju. Sensation Seeking, Overconfidence, and Trading Activity. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w12223.

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