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Books on the topic 'Overconfidence'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 25 May 2024

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1

Invernizzi, Anna. Overconfidence in SMEs. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66920-5.

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Malmendier, Ulrike. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Malmendier, Ulrike. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Steen, Eric Van den. Overconfidence by bayesian rational agents. [Boston]: Harvard Business School, 2010.

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5

Ben-David, Itzhak. Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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6

Peng, Lin. Investor attention: Overconfidence and category learning. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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7

Grinblatt, Mark. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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8

Benigno, Pierpaolo. Overconfidence, subjective perception and pricing behavior. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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9

Grinblatt, Mark. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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10

Burnside, Craig. Investor overconfidence and the forward premium puzzle. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2010.

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11

Malmendier, Ulrike. Who makes acquisitions?: CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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12

Massey, Cade. Overconfidence vs. market efficiency in the National Football League. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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13

Demir, Imran. Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52605-8.

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14

Malmendier, Ulrike. Who makes acquisitions?: CEO overconfidence and the markets reaction. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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15

Overconfidence and war: The havoc and glory of positive illusions. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, 2004.

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16

Realismus von subjektiven Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Eine kognitionspsychologische Analyse inferentieller Prozesse beim Overconfidence-Phänomen. Frankfurt am Main: P. Lang, 1987.

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17

Stone, Dan Nan. Overconfidence in initial self-efficacy judgements: Effects on decision processes and performance. Champaign: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1993.

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18

Ji yu guo du zi xin de xing wei qi ye li lun: Overconfidence. Beijing Shi: Zhongguo cai zheng jing ji chu ban she, 2009.

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19

Stephen, Leider, and Harvard Business School, eds. Why do firms use non-linear incentive schemes?: Experimental evidence on sorting and overconfidence. [Boston]: Harvard Business School, 2010.

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20

Malmendier, Ulrike. Corporate financial policies with overconfident managers. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.

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21

Johnson, Dominic D. P. Overconfidence and War. Harvard University Press, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.4159/9780674039162.

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22

Johnson, Dominic D. P. Overconfidence and War. Harvard University Press, 2009.

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23

Invernizzi, Anna. Overconfidence in SMEs: Conceptualisations, Domains and Applications. Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.

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24

Invernizzi, Anna. Overconfidence in SMEs: Conceptualisations, Domains and Applications. Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.

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25

Johnson, Dominic D. P. Overconfidence and War: The Havoc and Glory of Positive Illusions. Harvard University Press, 2004.

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26

Demir, Imran. Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Case of Turkey's Syria Policy. Springer International Publishing AG, 2017.

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27

Demir, Imran. Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Case of Turkey’s Syria Policy. Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.

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28

Bernstein, Daniel M., Andre Aßfalg, Ragav Kumar, and Rakefet Ackerman. Looking Backward and Forward on Hindsight Bias. Edited by John Dunlosky and Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.7.

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The same event that appeared unpredictable in foresight can be judged as predictable in hindsight. Hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life, including legal decisions, medical diagnoses, consumer satisfaction, sporting events, and election outcomes. We discuss three theoretical constructs related to hindsight bias: memory, reconstruction bias, and motivation. Attempts to recall foresight knowledge fail because newly acquired knowledge affects memory either directly or indirectly by biasing attempts to reconstruct foresight knowledge. On a metacognitive level, overconfidence and surprise contribute to hindsight bias. Overconfidence in knowledge increases hindsight bias whereas a well-calibrated confidence reduces hindsight bias. Motivational factors also contribute to hindsight bias by making positive and negative outcomes appear more or less likely, depending on a variety of factors. We review hindsight bias theories and discuss three exciting directions for future research.
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29

Slamcek, Rocco, and Jase Babcock. Ultimate Accountability: How to Be Awesome at Everything Through Using Dangerous Overconfidence, Lack of Humility & Extremely Raspy Voices. Independently Published, 2019.

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30

Slamcek, Rocco, and Jase Babcock. Ultimate Accountability: How to Be Awesome at Everything Through Using Dangerous Overconfidence, Lack of Humility & Extremely Raspy Voices. Independently published, 2019.

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31

Slamcek, Rocco, and Jase Babcock. Ultimate Accountability: How to Be Awesome at Everything Through Using Dangerous Overconfidence, Lack of Humility and Extremely Raspy Voices. Independently published, 2019.

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32

Slamcek, Rocco, and Jase Babcock. Ultimate Accountability: How to Be Awesome at Everything Through Using Dangerous Overconfidence, Lack of Humility and Extremely Raspy Voices. Independently Published, 2019.

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33

Strahilevitz, Michal. A Closer Look at the Causes and Consequences of Frequent Stock Trading. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269999.003.0012.

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This chapter examines the phenomenon of frequent stock trading. Specifically, it covers the ample research demonstrating the negative effects of frequent trading on investor returns, as well as several possible underlying causes for this irrational behavior. Possible causes of frequent trading discussed include overconfidence, risk seeking, gambling addiction, frequency of negative emotions, and emotional instability. The chapter also examines gender differences. Although the body of research showing that frequent trading is bad for returns is vast, many investors continue to trade too often for their own good. Therefore, besides discussing potential causes of frequent stock trading, this chapter also stresses the need for future research to identify effective methods of helping investors reduce this financially harmful behavior.
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34

Which factors hinder good decision making?: Overview and brief explanations. Edgar Hartel, 2014.

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35

Devos, Erik, Andrew C. Spieler, and Joseph M. Tenaglia. Portfolio Managers. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269999.003.0008.

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In the oversight of most funds, the portfolio manager holds the key decision-making power. Often regarded as foundational to the investment process, a few select managers can attract billions of dollars from investors, giving the managers increased prominence, credibility, and compensation. Despite their stature, portfolio managers are not immune to the behavioral biases that other investors exhibit, which can distort the portfolio management process. This chapter offers an overview of portfolio management and compares characteristics of the fund types that portfolio managers oversee. It also reviews several important behavioral biases that portfolio managers display, as well as the consequences that each has on portfolio construction: overconfidence, herd mentality, risk-taking behavior, and disposition effect. The chapter also contrasts the gender differences of portfolio managers and reviews the ramifications for their respective portfolios.
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36

Nofsinger, John R. Behavioral Aspects of Commodity Markets. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190656010.003.0004.

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Are behavioral biases prevalent in commodities and futures markets? Although retail equity investors display many psychological biases, investors who are more sophisticated exhibit fewer biases. The market makers, traders (locals), speculators, hedgers, and institutions of the commodities and futures markets tend to be professional participants, and thus less prone to behavioral biases. Nevertheless, the fast-paced action of these markets is an environment that fosters behavioral errors. This chapter reviews the literature on the pervasiveness of prospect theory behavior and other biases in these markets. Strong evidence indicates that market participants exhibit loss aversion, the impact of reference points, the disposition effect, and overconfidence. They also engage in positive feedback trading and momentum investing. Lastly, the chapter reviews risk-taking and behavioral biases by the type of market participant, particularly focusing on market makers, floor traders, clearing members, and the public.
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37

Ricciardi, Victor. The Psychology of Speculation in the Financial Markets. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269999.003.0026.

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This chapter discusses the role of speculation in the financial markets that influences individual and group behavior in the form of bubbles and crashes. The chapter highlights behavioral finance issues associated with bubbles, such as overconfidence, herding, group polarization, groupthink effect, representativeness bias, familiarity issues, grandiosity, excitement, and the overreaction and underreaction to prices. These issues are important for understanding past financial mistakes because history often repeat itself. The chapter also examines the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008 on investor psychology, including the impact of a severe financial downturn, anchoring effect, recency bias, worry, loss averse behavior, status quo bias, and trust. The aftermath of the financial crisis might have negative long-term effects on investor psychology in which some investors remain overly risk averse, resulting in under-investment in stocks and over-investment in cash and bonds.
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38

Ernst, Alexandra, Chris J. A. Moulin, Celine Souchay, Daniel C. Mograbi, and Robin Morris. Anosognosia and Metacognition in Alzheimer’s Disease. Edited by John Dunlosky and Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.12.

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While metacognition and anosognosia have long been studied as distinct concepts, more recently we have endeavored to construct a theoretical framework for exploring how metacognition can contribute to our understanding of anosognosia and vice versa. Following this approach, with a particular focus on Alzheimer’s disease (AD), this chapter first gives an overview of the key experimental findings and issues on metacognition in AD patients: in particular, overconfidence and absolute awareness; the sensitivity approach; the fractionation of metacognition in AD; the neural substrates of metacognition in the Alzheimer brain; and metacognitive control in these patients. Second, the chapter discusses the concept of anosognosia in AD patients from a cognitive neuropsychological viewpoint. It addresses models such as the cognitive awareness model and evidence from metacognition studies, and how they contribute to disentangle the issue of measuring anosognosia in AD patients. Finally, it develops the emerging concept of “implicit awareness” in AD patients.
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39

Tidwell, Joe W., Daniel Buttaccio, Jeffrey S. Chrabaszcz, Michael R. Dougherty, and Rick P. Thomas. Sources of Bias in Judgment and Decision Making. Edited by John Dunlosky and Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.17.

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Sources of bias in confidence and probability judgments, for example conservatism, overconfidence, and subadditivity, are some of the most important and rigorously researched topics within judgment and decision making. However, despite the seemingly obvious importance of memory processes on these types of judgments, much of this research has focused on external factors independent of memory processes, such as the effects of various types of elicitation format. In this chapter, we review the research relevant to commonly observed effects related to confidence and probability judgment, and then provide a memory-process account of these phenomena based on two models: Minerva-DM, a multiple-trace memory model; and HyGene, an extension of Minerva-DM that incorporates hypothesis generation. We contend that accounting for the dependence of judgments on memory provides a unifying theoretical framework for these various phenomena, as well as cognitive models that accurately reflect real-world behavior.
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40

Kornell, Nate, and Bridgid Finn. Self-Regulated Learning. Edited by John Dunlosky and Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.23.

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Effective self-regulated studying can influence students’ learning in school and beyond. This chapter reviews research on two key decisions: when to study and how to study. It first reviews the decisions people make about when to start and stop studying—that is, when to study—and the metacognitive judgments that underlie those decisions. It distinguishes between small-scale and large-scale decisions, such as which problem to work on next and whether to study today at all, respectively. It then discusses decisions about how to study, for example, whether or not to take notes, underline, test oneself, or reread. It then discusses key areas for future research, with an emphasis on student-centric research and research in digital learning environments. It offers practical recommendations for studiers about how to avoid overconfidence and procrastination and how to choose study strategies that increase short-term difficulty and long term success.
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41

Nofsinger, John R., and Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard. Corporate Executives, Directors, and Boards. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269999.003.0005.

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This chapter assesses the behavior of corporate managers and boards of directors within the framework of agency theory, stewardship theory, and psychological biases. In agency theory, a chief executive officer (CEO) is motivated to act in his or her own best interests rather than those of shareholders. Stewardship theory posits that a CEO is a self-actualizing individual seeking to grow and reach a higher level of achievement through leading an organization. A CEO exhibits self-interested behavior in managing the firm. The CEO also exhibits optimism, overconfidence, and risk-aversion behaviors that are not optimal for the company. In the context of agency theory, the board of directors should enact incentive structures and monitoring to control these behaviors. However, directors also suffer from self-interests and cognitive biases. Specifically, boards may suffer from group-dynamic problems such as social loafing, poor information sharing, and groupthink.
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42

Milliken, Christopher, Ehsan Nikbakht, and Andrew Spieler. Traditional Asset Allocation Securities. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190269999.003.0020.

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Asset allocation models have evolved in complexity with the development of modern portfolio theory, but they continue to operate under the assumption of investor rationality and other assumptions that do not hold in the real world. For this reason, academics and industry professionals make efforts to understand the behavioral biases of decision makers and the implications these biases have on asset allocation strategies. This chapter reviews the building blocks of asset allocation, involving stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash. It also examines the history and theory behind two of the most popular portfolio management strategies: mean-variance optimization and the Black-Litterman Model. Finally, the chapter examines five common behavioral biases that have direct implications for asset allocation: familiarity, status quo, framing, mental accounting, and overconfidence. Each behavioral bias discussion contains examples, warning signs, and steps to correct the emotional or cognitive errors in decision making.
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43

Foley, Richard. Conclusion. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190865122.003.0005.

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This chapter makes a plea both for intellectual humility, which cautions against overconfidence in one’s opinions, and for deference to experts when one is not well positioned to reach an opinion on one’s own. The chapter also discusses how Descartes’s efforts to find a method that would inoculate inquirers against error encountered problems with the Cartesian Circle. The chapter concludes that intellectual humility and openness to new ideas are appropriate even for those who have immense expertise in their fields. All the more so, they are the appropriate attitudes for nonexperts to have; and since no one has expertise in all fields, they are the attitudes that specialists in one field should have when considering issues in other fields. The chapter concludes by pointing out, in particular, they are the attitudes those in the humanities ought to have toward work in the sciences, and vice versa.
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44

Van Swol, Lyn M., Jihyun Esther Paik, and Andrew Prahl. Advice Recipients. Edited by Erina L. MacGeorge and Lyn M. Van Swol. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190630188.013.2.

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This chapter examines the psychology of advice recipients, focusing on research predominantly conducted using the Judge Advisor System, in which a participant “judge” receives advice from one or more advisors but has ultimate responsibility for making the decision. First, it reviews methods of typical Judge Advisor System experiments. Next, it surveys the research to explore why decision makers often do not seek out advice, focusing on the costs of advice and decision-maker overconfidence. It then examines why decision makers underutilize the advice they receive due to factors like confirmation bias, egocentric discounting, and power. In addition, factors that increase the utilization of advice, such as trust, advisor confidence, and advisor expertise, are considered. Finally, the influence of advice-recipient power and reception to computerized advice are examined in depth. Finally, advice to decision makers about how to seek and utilize advice to make better decisions is provided.
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45

Publishing, Chaya Prosacco. Mountains Have a Way Ff Dealing with Overconfidence: Climbing Graph Paper, Graphing Paper, Computation Pads, Drafting Paper, Blueprint Paper, Quad Ruled 5x5, Grid Paper for Math and Science Students. Independently Published, 2020.

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46

Scott, B. W., and P. A. Templeton. Tibial and ankle fractures in children. Oxford University Press, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199550647.003.014010.

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♦ After forearm and digital injuries, tibial and ankle fractures are the commonest fractures in the immature skeleton and the majority of these involve the diaphysis or ankle♦ Compared to the morbidity seen in adults these are relatively forgiving injuries in children as the healing rate of bone and soft tissues is rapid and remodelling will occur♦ It is wise, however, to guard against overconfidence in the remodelling potential of certain injuries; for example, angulated mid-diaphyseal fractures, rotational malalignment, and metaphyseal fractures within 2 years of skeletal maturity♦ Children will tolerate manipulative/cast treatment better than adults as the duration of treatment is usually shorter and rapid rehabilitation is almost the norm with or without physiotherapy♦ Postfracture overgrowth does occur but is less than that following femoral fractures and seldom clinically significant (over 10mm)♦ Isolated fibular fractures are of minor importance but need to be taken into account in managing complex injuries involving the distal tibia♦ It is convenient to discuss injuries according to three anatomical sections: proximal, diaphyseal, and distal.
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47

Baker, H. Kent, Greg Filbeck, and John R. Nofsinger. Behavioral Finance. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wentk/9780190868741.001.0001.

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People tend to be penny wise and pound foolish and cry over spilt milk, even though we are taught to do neither. Focusing on the present at the expense of the future and basing decisions on lost value are two mistakes common to decision-making that are particularly costly in the world of finance. Behavioral Finance: What Everyone Needs to KnowR provides an overview of common shortcuts and mistakes people make in managing their finances. It covers the common cognitive biases or errors that occur when people are collecting, processing, and interpreting information. These include emotional biases and the influence of social factors, from culture to the behavior of one’s peers. These effects vary during one’s life, reflecting differences in due to age, experience, and gender. Among the questions to be addressed are: How did the financial crisis of 2007-2008 spur understanding human behavior? What are market anomalies and how do they relate to behavioral biases? What role does overconfidence play in financial decision- making? And how does getting older affect risk tolerance?
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48

Johnson, Dominic D. P. Strategic Instincts. Princeton University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691137452.001.0001.

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A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases — quirks of the brain we all share as human beings — are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. This book challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, the book considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information. Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, the book looks at three influential cognitive biases — overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. It then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. The book acknowledges the dark side of biases — when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, it makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance. The book shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.
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49

It's Only the Himalayas: And Other Tales of Miscalculation from an Overconfident Backpacker. Brindle & Glass Publishing, Ltd., 2016.

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50

Castel, Alan D., Catherine D. Middlebrooks, and Shannon McGillivray. Monitoring Memory in Old Age. Edited by John Dunlosky and Sarah (Uma) K. Tauber. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199336746.013.3.

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Although a variety of memory changes accompany old age, an important question is the degree to which older adults are aware of these changes, and how older adults may or may not accurately monitor their own memory. Monitoring refers to the ability to assess how well one will remember certain information at a later time. In some cases, older adults may be overconfident about memory performance, whereas, in other situations, older adults may be highly aware of their memory abilities and demonstrate appropriate predictions and insight. This chapter will provide an overview of current research regarding this topic to shed light on the degree to which metacognitive monitoring may be intact in older adults. We discuss why this has implications for how older adults can use strategies to selectively remember important information, as well as future directions for metacognitive aging research.
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