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Journal articles on the topic 'Party Vote for President'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 5 February 2022

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1

Dwyer, Caitlin E., and Sarah A. Treul. "Indirect Presidential Influence, State-Level Approval, and Voting in the U.S. Senate." American Politics Research 40, no. 2 (2011): 355–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673x11417509.

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In the current era of polarization, bipartisanship between a president and senators of the opposite party seems unlikely. Yet, we expect that given a senator’s desire to please his constituents and ensure reelection, if a president is popular with constituents in a senator’s home state, he can have an indirect influence on the senator’s votes. We test this relationship using state-level presidential approval data, which are a district level cue for senators. The results suggest that when a president is popular with a senator’s constituents, the senator becomes increasingly likely to cast a vot

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2

Li, Tao. "DECLINING LEGISLATIVE DISSENT IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL PARTY CONGRESS ELECTIONS." Journal of East Asian Studies 20, no. 2 (2020): 231–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jea.2020.4.

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AbstractUsing a novel statistical method, we estimate the vote counts of the secret elections held by the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party from 1945 to 2017. We also construct a metric for voter preference diversity based on a standard index of legislative party fractionalization. We find that both the number of dissenting votes and the voter preference diversity index plummeted to the bottom in 2017, which is an unprecedented phenomenon in the party's history. Applying the same method to provincial party congress elections from 2006–2017, we find that provincial dissenting vot

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McThomas, Mary, and Robert J. Buchanan. "President Obama and Gay Rights: The 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 03 (2012): 442–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000315.

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AbstractWe examine the role and potential impact of gay, lesbian, and bisexual (GLB) voters in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We look at trend data from 1990 to 2010 to assess the fluctuations in support for the Democratic Party by GLB voters, specifically a substantial decrease in support during the 2010 midterm elections. We use data from the 2008 election to assess the estimated contribution the GLB vote made toward President Obama's margin of victory in key battleground states. Looking at the Obama administration's record on gay rights, specifically the failure to pass the Emplo

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Devine, Christopher J., and Kyle C. Kopko. "Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency? A Counterfactual Analysis of Minor Party Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election." Forum 19, no. 2 (2021): 173–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0011.

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Abstract Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote for president in 2016, but lost to Donald Trump in the Electoral College. Trump’s margin of victory in several decisive battleground states was smaller than the combined vote for the two leading minor party candidates: Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party. The perception that Johnson and Stein “stole” the 2016 presidential election from Clinton is widespread, and potentially consequential for future minor party candidacies, but it has not yet been rigorously tested. In this article, we extend the analy

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Epstein, Laurily K. "The Changing Structure of Party Identification." PS: Political Science & Politics 18, no. 01 (1985): 48–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096500021284.

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However one wishes to characterize Walter Mondale's campaign for the presidency, his loss was only the latest in a series of Democratic presidential candidate defeats beginning in 1968. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey got 43 percent of the popular vote. In 1972, George McGovem received 38 percent of the popular vote. And in both 1980 and 1984, the Democratic presidential tickets got 41 percent of the popular vote. Only in 1976 did a Democratic presidential candidate receive a (very slim) majority of the popular votes cast. Indeed, Democratic presidential candidates have received only 42 percent of th

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Borges, Fabian A. "Debating Trade: The Legislative Politics of Free Trade Agreements in Latin America." Government and Opposition 54, no. 2 (2017): 336–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/gov.2017.28.

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Stereotypes of Latin American legislatures as either rubber stamps or obstructionist obscure important cross-national differences. This article argues that the ability and willingness of legislatures to serve as counterweights to presidents are functions of their capabilities, electoral rules and the president’s powers. These arguments are assessed by comparing the legislative debates of free trade agreements with the US and accompanying legislation in Chile, Costa Rica and Peru. The cases reveal that legislatures with strong capabilities behave proactively, proposing their own policies that c

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Bobo, Lawrence D. "THE DIVERSITY CHALLENGE." Du Bois Review: Social Science Research on Race 9, no. 2 (2012): 263–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1742058x12000318.

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To characterize U.S. politics today as polarized is to state the obvious. Nevertheless, Barack Obama's election as the forty-fourth and first African American president of the United States in 2008 had an air of inevitability to it. The presidency of George W. Bush was at that point widely regarded as a profound failure. His administration had mishandled two on-going wars, brought us the nationally humbling debacle of hurricane Katrina, and took us to the brink of economic collapse. And thus the Democratic party nominee for president, who happened to be Black, was handily elected with 53% of t

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Lohmann, Susanne, and Sharyn O'Halloran. "Divided government and U.S. trade policy: theory and evidence." International Organization 48, no. 4 (1994): 595–632. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300028320.

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If different parties control the U.S. Congress and White House, the United States may maintain higher import protection than otherwise. This proposition follows from a distributive politics model in which Congress can choose to delegate trade policymaking to the President. When the congressional majority party faces a President of the other party, the former has an incentive to delegate to but to constrain the President by requiring congressional approval of trade proposals by up-or-down vote. This constraint forces the President to provide higher protection in order to assemble a congressiona

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Norris, Pippa. "The 1992 US Elections." Government and Opposition 28, no. 1 (1993): 51–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.1993.tb01305.x.

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The American Elections This Year Overturned conventional expectations. In March 1991 President Bush — leader of the free world during the fall of the Berlin wall and winner of the Gulf war — seemed invincible. With the troops home in victory parades, Bush's approval rating stood at 88 per cent in Gallup polls. Few thought he could lose against Governor Clinton, dogged by questions about the draft and marital fidelity, perceived as a second-rank Democratic contender from a small southern state. Yet President Bush won 37.7 per cent, the lowest share of the popular vote of any incumbent president

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Hibbs, Douglas A. "THE BREAD AND PEACE MODEL: 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POSTMORTEM." PS: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 01 (2013): 41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512001503.

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President Obama received approximately 51.5% of the two-party vote in the 2012 election. The last Bread and Peace Model forecast of Obama's vote share, based on advance estimates of 2012:quarter 3 personal income posted on October 26, 2012, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), was 46.6%—lower than the 47.5% forecast appearing in the October issue ofPS, which was based on July 27, 2012, BEA data. The Bread and Peace Model therefore underpredicted Obama's vote by 4 to 5 percentage points, equivalent to around 2 model standard errors. The president's vote therefore benefited from a +2-sigma

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Berry, Michael J., and Kenneth N. Bickers. "Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 04 (2012): 669–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000984.

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Nearly all forecast models of US presidential elections provide estimates of the national two-party vote (Campbell 2008). Each of the nine forecasts published in the 2008 forecasting issue ofPS: Political Science and Politicsmade national popular vote total predictions for the major party candidates, while only one provided an expected result in the Electoral College (Klarner 2008). These national vote models are assumed to be reliable forecasts of who is likely to win the general election. In most cases, this assumption is reasonable. It becomes problematic, however, at precisely the point th

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Irwansyah. "HAK KONSTITUSIONAL PENGUSULAN PASANGAN CALON PRESIDEN DAN WAKIL PRESIDEN DALAM SISTEM PEMILIHAN UMUM DI INDONESIA." Al-Qadha 5, no. 2 (2018): 59–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.32505/qadha.v5i2.1277.

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Political parties in the constitution of the Republic of Indonesia and the law have constitutionalrights to propose candidates for President and Deputy President. The current electoral systemrequires that before nominating the President and Vice President, political parties must have 20percent of the vote in the legislature / DPR or obtain 25 percent of the national legitimate votes inthe previous general election. With the implementation of this system, not all political parties canpropose candidates for President and Vice President candidates. Then what is the fate of the partythat does not

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Abramowitz, Alan I. "ELECTION FORECAST: A LOOK BACK AT THE TIME FOR CHANGE MODEL AND THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION." PS: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 01 (2013): 37–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512001461.

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The Time for Change Model once again correctly predicted the winner of the US presidential election. In late August, before the Republican and Democratic national conventions, the model predicted that President Obama would win 50.6% of the major party vote to 49.4% for his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney. When all the votes are counted, it now appears that Obama will end up with approximately 51.8% of the vote, making the Time for Change Model one of the nation's most accurate statistical forecasting models. Despite the fact that this prediction was made more than two months before Election

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Tsedilina, E. "Ukraine: Significance of the Local Elections – 2020." Russia and New States of Eurasia, no. 4 (2020): 46–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/2073-4786-2020-4-46-58.

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The local elections held in Ukraine were far from being of local significance. They showed the real balance of political forces in the country: significant reduction in ranking of the “Servant of the People” and strengthening of the parliamentary opposition represented by the “Opposition Platform – For Life” and “European Solidarity”. These three parties each received approximately the same number of votes. This shows that the President’s political force has been unable to fulfill the role of a unifying center for the country. Ukraine has returned to a state of polarization, when the populatio

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Campbell, James E. "Explaining Electoral Change in the 2018 US Midterm Elections: The Three Components of Electoral Mandates." Forum 16, no. 4 (2018): 477–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/for-2018-0034.

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Abstract Why did the American electorate elect a solid majority of Republicans to the House in 2016 and then 2 years later replace it with a solid majority of Democrats? This article revives the idea of an electoral mandate and applies it to the 2016 and 2018 elections. It proposes a trinity of partisan attitudes serving as the components of electoral mandates: performance, values, and leadership. The election of President Trump in 2016 depended on a mix of performance evaluations (a weak economy) favoring the Republicans and leadership evaluations (Trump’s behavior difficulties) muted by valu

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Strauss, Annette. "The 1992 Referendum in South Africa." Journal of Modern African Studies 31, no. 2 (1993): 339–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022278x00011964.

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The ruling National Party (N.P.) asked white voters during the 1989 election campaign for a mandate to negotiate with all concerned about a new constitution, an undivided South Africa, one citizenship, equal votes, protection of minorities, and the removal of stumbling blocks such as discrimination against people of colour.1 Although the N.P. achieved a cleat majority – 93 seats against 39 for the Conservative Party (C.P.) and 33 for the Democratic Party (D.P.) – the right-wing opposition made destinct progress by gaining 17 seats. After the C.P had captured a further three from the N.P. in by

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Krus, David J., and James M. Webb. "Contributions to Psychohistory: XXII. Quantification of Santayana's Cultural Schism Theory." Psychological Reports 72, no. 1 (1993): 319–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1993.72.1.319.

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The January 12th, 1991 U.S. Congress vote giving President Bush powers to initiate military operations against Iraq was analyzed with respect to personal and religious backgrounds of the voting Senators and Representatives. Aside from party affiliation, the outcome of the vote was significantly associated with religious affiliations of the members of Congress. These empirical findings are interpreted within the theoretical context of Santayana's hypothesis that the Catholic-Protestant schism is one of the determinants of the niveau of our society.

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Berry, Michael J., and Kenneth N. Bickers. "FORECASTING THE 2012 ELECTION WITH STATE-LEVEL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: A POSTMORTEM." PS: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 01 (2013): 46–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512001588.

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Our State-Level Economic Model incorrectly forecast the outcome of the presidential election. The model's projections were based on the two-party vote in the prior election, the status of the incumbent party in the election/reelection cycle, national and state unemployment rates, and changes in real per capita personal income levels for state residents. Even before the Republican nomination process began, President Obama's success in the 2008 campaign coupled with the electoral advantage typically enjoyed by first-term incumbents bode well for his reelection chances. However, by the arrival of

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Hutcheson, Derek S., and Ian McAllister. "Explaining Party Support in the 2016 Russian State Duma Election." Russian Politics 2, no. 4 (2017): 454–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2451-8921-00204004.

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Because of the predicable outcomes of recent Russian elections, voters are often characterized as passive actors in the electoral process. However, as we show in this article, political and social factors still underpin the motivations for people’s voting behavior. The article analyzes voting behavior in the 2016 State Duma election, using a post-election, nationally representative survey to assess the differences between the four parliamentary parties’ support bases. It finds that voting decisions in the 2016 election were strongly related to voters’ attitudes to the national president, Vladi

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WRIGHT, JOHN R. "Unemployment and the Democratic Electoral Advantage." American Political Science Review 106, no. 4 (2012): 685–702. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055412000330.

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This article calls into question the conventional wisdom that incumbent parties are rewarded when unemployment is low and punished when it is high. Using county-level data on unemployment and election returns for 175 midterm gubernatorial elections and 4 presidential elections from 1994 to 2010, the analysis finds that unemployment and the Democratic vote for president and governor move together. Other things being equal, higher unemployment increases the vote shares of Democratic candidates. The effect is greatest when Republicans are the incumbent party, but Democrats benefit from unemployme

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Mattei, Franco, and Herbert F. Weisberg. "Presidential Succession Effects in Voting." British Journal of Political Science 24, no. 4 (1994): 495–516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123400006979.

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Attitudes towards a departing administration can help shape attitudes towards candidates, especially when the incumbent vice-president is one of the candidates. This succession effect was apparent in the 1988 presidential election, when Vice-President Bush benefited from the enduring popularity of retiring President Reagan. This article develops a model in which succession effects, the net candidate score and party identification affect the general election vote. Analysis shows that this effect remains when controls are instituted for retrospective voting more generally. Attitudes towards Reag

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Rich, Timothy S. "Reinterpreting Split-Ticket Voting in South Korea’s 2004 Legislative Election." Asian Journal of Social Science 45, no. 4-5 (2017): 529–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15685314-04504008.

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What explains ticket-splitting in South Korea’s 2004 National Assembly election? While the mixed member systems literature generally focuses on strategic rationales to split ticketing, the role of contextual factors—in this case the impeachment of President Roh Moo-Hyun—remains largely unexplored. An analysis of Korea’s first two-vote mixed system election from 2004 finds that, besides traditional strategic voting, approval of Roh’s impeachment influenced strategic voting, but only among supporters of Roh’s own party, the Uri Party.

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Bonnetain, Philippe. "Behind the Polling–Booth Curtain and beyond Simple Speculations: Toward a Causal Model of Far–Right Voting Behaviour Some Evidence from French Presidential Elections of 2002." Canadian Journal of Political Science 37, no. 2 (2004): 419–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423904040193.

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The electoral surge of the National Front (NF) in the 2002 French presidential election was unprecedented. It marked the first time that a far–right candidate reached the second round of voting in a presidential election: Jean–Marie Le Pen, leader of the NF party, passed the first round on April 21, 2002, beating 16 other candidates with 16.86 per cent of the vote against 19.88 per cent for the incumbent President Jacques Chirac (Rassemblement pour la République RPR) and 16.18 per cent for the incumbent Prime Minister Lionel Jospin (Parti Socialiste PS).

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James, Scott C. "Building a Democratic Majority: The Progressive Party Vote and the Federal Trade Commission." Studies in American Political Development 9, no. 2 (1995): 331–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0898588x00001358.

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On 30 May 1914, Theodore Roosevelt fired the opening shots of the midterm elections against the party of Woodrow Wilson. Roosevelt framed the off-year elections as a referendum on the failures of the New Freedom, the Democrats' three-pronged program to curb the power of the trusts. Rather than bringing monopolies to heal, the former president asserted, Democratic policy had simply driven the economy into recession. “[T]he Democratic party,” Roosevelt explained on another occasion “has been engaged in what is fundamentally an effort to restore the unlimited competition of two generations back a

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Jones, Mark P., Wonjae Hwang, and Juan Pablo Micozzi. "Government and Opposition in the Argentine Congress, 1989-2007: Understanding Inter-Party Dynamics through Roll Call Vote Analysis." Journal of Politics in Latin America 1, no. 1 (2009): 67–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1866802x0900100104.

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This article employs roll call vote data and Bayesian ideal point estimation to examine inter-party dynamics in the Argentine Chamber of Deputies between 1989 and 2007. It highlights the presence in the Argentine Congress of a strong government vs. opposition dimension as well as identifies the relative position on this dimension, vis-à-vis the governing party, of the most prominent non-governing parties. Special attention is paid to the evolution of inter-party legislative dynamics during Argentina's brief experience with coalition government (1999-2001) and to party behavior in the Chamber d

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Cohen, Jeffrey E., Michael A. Krassa, and John A. Hamman. "The Impact of Presidential Campaigning on Midterm U.S. Senate Elections." American Political Science Review 85, no. 1 (1991): 165–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1962883.

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The conventional wisdom about presidential campaigning in midterm Senate elections is that presidential efforts lack impact or have negative impact. We discuss conceptual problems with the conventional view and offer an alternative that views presidential campaigning as strategic. We test this alternative and find support for it. Further, we find that presidential campaign efforts have a positive impact on the vote through the mobilization of nonvoters. Finally, in a significant number of cases, presidential campaigning may have been the margin of victory for candidates of the president's part

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Schultz, David. "The Implementation and Evaluation of the United States Affordable Care Act." Medicine, Law & Society 12, no. 1 (2019): 17–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/mls.12.1.17-38.2019.

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In 2010 the United States Congress adopted the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (“ACA”), more commonly referred to as Obamacare. The ACA was proposed by President Barack Obama while running for president and it was passed with a near straight party-line vote of Democrats in the US House and Senate in 2010. The ACA was meant to address several problems with the American health care delivery system, including cost, access and outcomes. This article describes the major features of the ACA including the context of the US health care system, evaluates the ACA’s implementation history and

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Gunde, Anthony M. "Online News Media, Religious Identity and Their Influence on Gendered Politics: Observations from Malawi’s 2014 Elections." Journal of Religion, Media and Digital Culture 4, no. 1 (2015): 39–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/21659214-90000100.

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The rise of the internet has offered the opportunity for the news media to communicate with audiences in many significant ways that may have profound consequences in the shaping of public opinion and transforming lives in the global sphere. Through a Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), this article examines ways in which online news media could be used to reinforce gender stereotypes by promoting patriarchal religious beliefs and how this may have huge implications on women’s empowerment with regard to political leadership roles in developing democracies. The analysis is drawn from the 2014 Mal

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Mitchell, Stephanie. "Revolutionary Feminism, Revolutionary Politics: Suffrage under Cardenismo." Americas 72, no. 3 (2015): 439–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/tam.2015.33.

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On February 25, 1937, Mexico's ruling political party, then called the Partido Nacional Revolucionario (PNR), announced that for the first time it would permit “organized” women to vote in internal party elections. “Organized” was code for members of labor unions, agrarian leagues, or other groups supportive of the government. The decision reveals that the PNR, under the leadership of revolutionary general and president Lázaro Cárdenas, had found itself in a situation similar to that of other progressive parties throughout the hemisphere. Although many PNR leaders, including the president, had

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Veronika, Riska, Memi Nor Hayati, and Ika Purnamasari. "Metode Quick Count dan Analisis Autokorelasi Spasial Menggunakan Indeks Moran (Studi Kasus: Pemilihan Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2019 di Kalimantan Timur)." Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang 8, no. 2 (2020): 121. http://dx.doi.org/10.26714/jsunimus.8.2.2020.121-126.

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Quick count is a quick caculation method based on sampling that is used to show the results of the temporary vote before the official election results are published. Votes can be influenced by party bases in various regions, so the linkage of the results of vote acquisition between regions needs to be taken into account. Spatial autocorrelation is the correlation between variables and themselves based on space or region. This research has a goal to determine the difference between the results of the estimated vote acquisition using the quick count method with the results of the KPU vote and sp

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Kleih, Björn-Christian. "Die mündliche Erklärung zur Abstimmung gemäß § 31 Absatz 1 GOBT – eine parlamentarische Wundertüte mit Potenzial?" Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen 51, no. 4 (2020): 865–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/0340-1758-2020-4-865.

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According to the Rules of Procedure of the German Bundestag (”GOBT”), every Member of Parliament is granted a five minutes’ verbal explanation of vote . It is granted for nearly every kind of vote in the House . The verbal explanation is often considered a privilege to MPs going against the position taken by their group . Yet, it is also used to confirm the party position and it is abused to continue already closed debates . In either case, they can be a grab bag for both parliament’s plenum and its president; the verbal explanation’s content is only revealed when the explanation is given . A

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Cuzán, Alfred G. "FISCAL MODEL FAILURE: A MEASUREMENT PROBLEM? A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT." PS: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 01 (2013): 42–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512001540.

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The Fiscal Model of presidential elections not only failed to predict that President Obama would win reelection handily, but the error incurred in the forecast of the incumbent share of the two-party vote was such (46.9%vs. 51.8% or more) as to warrant a rating of “inaccurate” or “quite inaccurate” in Campbell's table of benchmarks for evaluating forecasts (Campbell 2012, 611). This recap is a preliminary assessment of what went wrong.

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Nurdin, Ahmad Ali. "Partai Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) dan Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) sebagai Partai Islam Pendukung Demokrasi PKS Pada Pemilu." Teosofi: Jurnal Tasawuf dan Pemikiran Islam 5, no. 1 (2015): 246. http://dx.doi.org/10.15642/teosofi.2015.5.1.246-267.

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<p>The article compares the achievement of Partai Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) and Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) in the latest general election held in 2013 in Malaysia and in 2014 in Indonesia. The writer finds that the political performance of PAS and PKS has indicated differently contrast results. While political electability of PAS in the 2013 Malaysia’s general election has disappointed this party, PKS has successfully proved that surveys held by a number of survey institutes—predicting that the party would cease within the 2014 Indonesia’s national election—were totally false. Many po

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Hart, Christopher. "The Nigerian elections of 1983." Africa 63, no. 3 (1993): 397–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1161428.

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AbstractIn 1979 Nigeria's military government held the first general elections for fifteen years. The politicians then resumed power under a republican constitution. The National Party of Nigeria, a conservative coalition, narrowly won the elections from four other parties and virtually controlled the next elections in 1983. There were five election rounds: for the President, for nine-teen state governers, for the Senate, for the House of Representatives and for the state assemblies. Increases over the 1979 vote in the presidential round indicated some rigging. Results in the following rounds

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Aisy Nur Albar and Acep Ikbal Hidayatullah. "Pengaruh Sosok Sandiaga Uno dalam Meraih Suara Generasi Milenial Pada Pemilihan Presiden Tahun 2019." KOMUNIDA : Media Komunikasi dan Dakwah 9, no. 1 (2019): 21–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.35905/komunida.v9i1.1130.

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The Indonesian nation holds the largest democratic party, namely the election ofthe President and Vice President in 2019. Each candidate pair competes with each otherto win the public vote. One of the sound holes that has an effect on the presidentialelection later is the Millennial generation. Generation that is able to create change.According to the survey results, the millennial generation is still faltering in makingchoices or the presidential candidate must be concerned about reaching the millennialvote. The figure of Sandiaga Uno is someone who is believed to be able to embrace thevoice

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Negri, Fedra, and Elisa Rebessi. "Was Mattarella worth the trouble? Explaining the failure of the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum." Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica 48, no. 2 (2018): 177–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2017.29.

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The election of President Mattarella is a turning point in Matteo Renzi’s attempt to reform the constitution. This choice determined the loss of Forza Italia’s support to the constitutional reform, thus leaving the Renzi cabinet and the Democratic Party alone on the Yes-side. Our goal is to assess the degree of Renzi’s misjudgment by comparing two theoretical perspectives on voting behavior in direct-democratic settings through a nested design. Our results highlight that vote choices can be explained by both the systematic and the heuristic modes of information processing. Respondents’ agreeme

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Junn, Jane, and Natalie Masuoka. "The Gender Gap Is a Race Gap: Women Voters in US Presidential Elections." Perspectives on Politics 18, no. 4 (2019): 1135–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1537592719003876.

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Scholarship on women voters in the United States has focused on the gender gap, showing that, since the 1980s, women are more likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates than men. The persistence of the gender gap has nurtured the conclusion that women are Democrats. This article presents evidence upending that conventional wisdom. It analyzes data from the American National Election Study to demonstrate that white women are the only group of female voters who support Republican Party candidates for president. They have done so by a majority in all but 2 of the last 18 elections. The releva

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Casella, Alessandra, Sébastien Turban, and Gregory Wawro. "Storable votes and judicial nominations in the US Senate." Journal of Theoretical Politics 29, no. 2 (2016): 243–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0951629816630437.

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We model a procedural reform aimed at restoring a proper role for the minority in the confirmation process of judicial nominations in the US Senate. We propose that nominations to the same level court be collected in periodic lists and voted upon individually with storable votes, allowing each senator to allocate freely across the list a fixed number of total votes. Although each nomination is decided by simple majority, storable votes make it possible for the minority to win occasionally, but only when the relative importance its members assign to a nomination is higher than the relative impo

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Abramowitz, Alan I. "TIME-FOR-CHANGE MODEL AGAIN RIGHT ON THE MONEY IN 2008." PS: Political Science & Politics 42, no. 01 (2009): 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096509240352.

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The October 2008 issue ofPSpublished a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.The Time-for-Change Model proved one of the most accurate of the 2008 presidential election forecasts run in the OctoberPSsymposium. Using three predictors—the president's approval rating at mid-year, the growth rate of real GDP during the second quarter, and the time-for-change dummy variable—the model predicted that Barack Obama would win the presidential election with 54.3% of the major-party

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MERRILL, SAMUEL, BERNARD GROFMAN, and THOMAS L. BRUNELL. "Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854–2006: Statistical Evidence and an Explanatory Model." American Political Science Review 102, no. 1 (2008): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055408080064.

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Are there cycles in American politics? In particular, does the proportion of the Democratic/Republican vote share for president and/or seat share in Congress rise and fall over extended periods of time? If so, are the cycles regular, and what are the cycling periods? Moreover, if there are regular cycles, can we construct an integrated model—such as a negative feedback loop—that identifies political forces that could generate the observed patterns? First, we use spectral analysis to test for the presence and length of cycles, and show that regular cycles do, in fact, exist—with periods that co

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Beke, Dirk. "La Constitution Algerienne De 1989: Une Passerelle Entre le Socialisme Et L’islamisme?" Afrika Focus 7, no. 3 (1991): 241–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2031356x-00703004.

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The Algerian Constitution of 1989: A Bridge Between Socialism and Islamism? The riots of october 1988, the most violent uprising since independence against FLN-rule, forced president Chadli Bendjedid to accelerate and to extend the constitutional reforms announced earlier. An adaption of the constitutional law to the ongoing economic liberalization-process had become a necessity, but the popular pressure now not only asked economic changes, but also profound political reform. The new constitutional text was rapidly elaborated by a small circle of persons around the President and then submitted

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Indriani, Ulfah, and Nita Syahputri. "Aplikasi Rekapitulasi Suara Yang Diperoleh Calon Legislatif Pada Pemilihan Umum." Prosiding Seminar Nasional Riset Information Science (SENARIS) 1 (September 30, 2019): 88. http://dx.doi.org/10.30645/senaris.v1i0.11.

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General Election is a democratic party held every 5 (five) years. General elections are held to elect state officials from the President, Regional Head and Legislative Members. There are so many people who really want that position because of the huge income, luxurious facilities and high social level. Many people are willing to spend large amounts of money in order to be able to occupy these seats. This is because each candidate must get a large number of people's votes so that the candidates cannot work alone in order to gain votes. And if the election has arrived and the people have chosen,

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Holbrook, Thomas M. "POSTMORTEM: INCUMBENCY, NATIONAL CONDITIONS, AND US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS." PS: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 01 (2013): 41–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512001515.

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The Incumbency and National Conditions (presidential approval and aggregated personal finances) Model predicted President Obama would garner 47.9% of the two-party vote, whereas he ended up with 51.8% (based on available information on December 3, 2012). The error in this forecast (3.9 points) is somewhat higher than the average out-of-sample error from 1952 to 2008 (2.4 points). Although the forecast was off the mark, the addition of the 2012 result to the data set does little to change the slope estimates, and the overall fit of the model is only slightly worse (table 1).

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Miller, Warren E. "Party Identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to the Basics." American Political Science Review 85, no. 2 (1991): 557–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1963175.

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The argument is presented for defining party identification by the root question, “Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?” With this definitional base, the partisan balance between Democrats and Republicans between 1952 and 1980 shows no evidence of realignment outside the South, belying the implications of the Markus-Converse and Fiorina analyses that suggest volatility in response to short-term influences. It also appears that the correlation between party identification and voter choices for president are very constant over

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DYNES, ADAM M., and GREGORY A. HUBER. "Partisanship and the Allocation of Federal Spending: Do Same-Party Legislators or Voters Benefit from Shared Party Affiliation with the President and House Majority?" American Political Science Review 109, no. 1 (2015): 172–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000305541400063x.

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Previous research finds that House majority members and members in the president's party garner additional federal spending in their districts. Using federal spending data in individual districts, we implement two research designs to distinguish elected officials enacting policies that benefit like-minded voters—the party in the electorate—from those that benefit same-party elected officials—the party in government. We find robust evidence that presidential partisanship is associated with large differences in spending correlated with voter preferences, but little evidence that presidents favor

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Mink, Joseph. "The “Parties” Presidents Make? The Bush Legacy and Party Government." American Review of Politics 29 (January 1, 2009): 311–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2008.29.0.311-329.

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Although elected without having won the popular vote, George W. Bush set out to enact an ambitious legislative agenda designed, in part, to help secure a “permanent majority” for the GOP. In pursuing this agenda, Bush drew upon significant institutional advantages associated with the contemporary state of political parties, and he worked diligently to reinforce those advantages by dedicating himself to a party building effort unprecedented in modern politics. In this article I explore how these efforts may put into question the framework of realignment and propose instead a trajectory of presi

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Abdullah, Omer Bin. "Did Pakistanis Vote for the Status Quo?" American Journal of Islam and Society 30, no. 3 (2013): 135–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.35632/ajis.v30i3.1110.

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The latest – and possibly the last – period of military rule in Pakistan ended in 2008, when elections were held under the thendictator General Pervez Musharraf. The voting sprouted a coalition government headed by the Pakistan Peoples Party that ruled (or rather riled) the country for five excruciating years. The ever-erring ruling group included the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz, one of the many breakaway wings of the country’s founding political movement. The country has suffered ever since the Soviets invaded neighboring Afghanistan, le

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Campbell, James E. "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (1986): 45–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1957083.

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The president's party consistently loses partisan control of state legislatures in midterm elections, a pattern similar to the loss of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterms. This study examines presidential coattails as a possible explanation of these losses. Aggregate state legislative election outcomes between 1944 and 1984 in 41 states are examined. The analysis indicates that the president's party gains seats in presidential elections in proportion to the presidential vote in a state, and subsequently loses seats in midterm elections also in proportion to the prior preside

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Franz, Michael M., and Travis N. Ridout. "Political Advertising and Persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections." American Politics Research 38, no. 2 (2010): 303–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1532673x09353507.

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The 2008 presidential election was historic in many respects. The campaign included the first African American major-party candidate, and neither candidate was an incumbent president or vice president. In addition, one candidate took public funding and the other candidate did not. This latter disparity resulted in an imbalance of resources across the two campaigns, especially in the purchase of political advertising. But did that imbalance matter for who won? Did advertising move voters, and if so, by how much? This article examines patterns of presidential ad buys in 2008 and compares them wi

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Espaliú Berdud, Carlos. "The abandonment of the Spitzenkandidaten System: (Un)sustainable democracy in the EU?" Cuadernos Europeos de Deusto, no. 64 (May 14, 2021): 53–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.18543/ced-64-2021pp53-80.

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In the process of the parliamentarisation of the EU, the Treaty of Lisbon took a further step forward by introducing into the founding treaties - Article 17.7 TEU- the need to take into account the elections to the European Parliament for the appointment of the President of the Commission. Nevertheless, the European Parliament has been trying to impose its interpretation of Article 17.7 TEU, which has been coined into the Spitzenkandidaten doctrine, according to which the head of the party winning the elections should be elected as Commission President. The Parliament succeeded in imposing its

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