Academic literature on the topic 'Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios'
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Journal articles on the topic "Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios"
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Hendrawan, Riko, and Ariful Ulya. "Do We Believe In Value? : Valuing Toll Road Sub Sector Companies Listed On Idx." Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia 23, no. 1 (2023): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.25124/jmi.v23i1.4011.
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The purpose of this to examining the intrinsic value of the shares of toll road operator companies in IDX in 2021. This research uses data from 2016 to 2020 to calculate the historical performance of each company and is projected from 2021 to 2025. We used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenario. The method used is DCF method with FCFF approach and the calculation of the Relative Valuation method using PER and PBV approaches. The results based on the DCF-FCFF method showed that JSMR was overvalued for the pessimistic scenario and undervalued for the moderate and optimistic scenarios, while the calculation using the RV-PER method on JSMR showed that it was undervalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and overvalued in the optimistic scenario. Also, based on the RV-PBV method, it showed undervalued in all scenarios. The DCF-FCFF results of CMNP issuers were undervalued in all scenarios, the RV-PER method was overvalued in all scenarios, and the RV-PBV were undervalued in all scenarios. Finally, META issuers were undervalued in the pessimistic scenario, and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. RV-PER CMNP had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios, and the RV-PBV had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios.
 Keywords : DCF, FCFF, PBV, PER
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Ratuinsani, Tati Mushalihati, Haris Muhammadun, and Laksono Djoko Nugroho. "INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATU ULO FISHING PORT BASED ON FINANCIAL ASPECTS AND SENSITIVITY ASPECTS." International Journal on Advanced Technology, Engineering, and Information System (IJATEIS) 3, no. 1 (2024): 167–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.55047/ijateis.v3i1.1019.
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Watu Ulo Beach serves as a vital hub for fishing communities, supplying resources for sea fishing and serving as a landing point for catches. The local government plans to construct a fishing port at Watu Ulo to enhance facilities for fishermen. This study assesses the financial feasibility and sensitivity of investing in the port's construction, considering three income scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. Financial analysis using NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP methods deems the project feasible for moderate and optimistic scenarios, but not for the pessimistic scenario due to IRR (6.15%) < MARR (7.72%). Sensitivity analysis reveals that revenue sensitivity is critical for all scenarios, with the investment becoming unfeasible if revenue falls below certain thresholds: -13.67% for pessimistic, -39.96% for moderate, and -40.75% for optimistic scenarios. Operating cost sensitivity is also crucial, rendering the investment unfeasible if costs deviate beyond specific thresholds: -15.96% for pessimistic, +22.67% for moderate, and 25.59% for optimistic scenarios.
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VESA, Lidia. "THE FUZZY OPTIMISTIC-REASONABLE-PESSIMISTIC INVENTORY MODEL." Annals of the University of Oradea. Economic Sciences 31, no. 31(1) (2022): 259–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.47535/1991auoes31(1)025.
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In inventory and production decision problems, decision makers are interested to identify the optimal inventory and production level. In a certain decision environment, the optimal inventory level could be determined through traditional inventory methods and the optimal ptoduction level could be determined through linear programming algorithms. In an uncertain decision environment, the traditional methods and algorithms can not provide efficient and relevant solutions for these levels, due to the vague and changing parameters. In this case it is neccesary to develop new methods and models that can deal with vague variables and provide optimal levels. In this paper, the optimal inventory and production levels are determined through a single model that uses fuzzy linear programming. This new model is Fuzzy Optimistic-Reasonable-Pessimistic Inventory Model. It has three scenario: optimistic, reasonable and pessimistic, that are defined through triangular fuzzy numbers. In this way, decision makers can deal with vague parameters. These scenarios help managers to divide the Fuzzy ORP Model into three sub-models, that can be easily solved through traditional Simplex Algorithms. Each sub-model provides a crisp solution for each scenario. The solutions forms the final fuzzy optimal solution. The Fuzzy PRO Inventory Model helps managers to identify three optimal levels and to rank them according to their evaluations. This is useful, also, in predictions, where the decision makers should predict different scenarios for the production process. The limit of this model is the definition of the variables and scenarios. This model consider that all values for all variables and coefficients have the same definition: the inferior limit is related to the optimistic sceanrio, the peak is represents the reasonable limit and the superior limit is related to the pessimistic scenario. In real problem, the decision variables could have different definition than coefficients. The inferior limit of the cost is related to the optimistic scenario, but the superior limit of the production level can be related to the optimistic scenario. There are different representations for the scenarios.
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Alsubhi, Yazeed, Salman Qureshi, and Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui. "A New Risk-Based Method in Decision Making to Create Dust Sources Maps: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia." Remote Sensing 15, no. 21 (2023): 5193. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15215193.
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Dust storms are one of the major causes of the destruction of natural ecosystems and human infrastructure worldwide. Therefore, the identification and mapping of susceptible regions to dust storm formation (SRDSFs) is of great importance. Determining SRDSFs by considering the concept of risk in the decision-making process and the kind of manager’s attitude and planning can be very valuable in dedicating financial resources and time to identifying and controlling the negative impacts of SRDSFs. The purpose of this study was to present a new risk-based method in decision making to create SRDSF maps of pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. To achieve the purpose of this research, effective criteria obtained from various sources were used, including simulated surface data, satellite products, and soil data of Saudi Arabia. These effective criteria included vegetation cover, soil moisture, soil erodibility, wind speed, precipitation, and absolute air humidity. For this purpose, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was employed to generate existing SRDSF maps in different scenarios. The results showed that the wind speed and precipitation criteria had the highest and lowest impact in identifying dust centers, respectively. The areas identified as SRDSFs in very pessimistic, pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 85,950, 168,275, 255,225, 410,000, and 596,500 km2, respectively. The overall accuracy of very pessimistic, pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 84.1, 83.3, 81.6, 78.2, and 73.2%, respectively. The very pessimistic scenario can identify the SRDSFs in the study area with higher accuracy. The overall accuracy of the results of these scenarios compared to the dust sources obtained from the previous studies were 92.7, 94.2, 95.1, 88.4, and 79.7% respectively. The dust sources identified in the previous studies have a higher agreement with the results of the neutral scenario. The proposed method has high flexibility in producing a wide range of SRDSF maps in very pessimistic to very optimistic scenarios. The results of the pessimistic scenarios are suitable for risk-averse managers with limited financial resources and time, and the results of the optimistic scenarios are suitable for risk-taking managers with sufficient financial resources and time.
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Cavalcante Junior, Edmilson G., José F. de Medeiros, José Espínola Sobrinho, Vladimir B. Figueirêdo, João P. N. da Costa, and Wesley de O. Santos. "Development and water requirements of cowpea under climate change conditions in the Brazilian semi-arid region." Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental 20, no. 9 (2016): 783–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v20n9p783-788.
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ABSTRACT This study aimed to determine the impacts that climate change may cause on the development and evapotranspiration of cowpea, in semi-arid climate region of Northeast Brazil. The study was conducted in the municipalities of Apodi, Ipanguaçu and Mossoró, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. In order to evaluate the influence of climate change on crop water consumption, changes in air temperature and relative humidity were simulated using the PRECIS climate model. Two scenarios of emissions were evaluated based on the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: a pessimistic named A2 and an optimistic B2. The duration of the crop cycle showed an average reduction of 14 and 23 days for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Temperatures will be well above the limit tolerated by crop, which could have a negative impact on its development and yield. There will be a decrease in total evapotranspiration of 4.8%, considering the optimistic scenario, and 8.7% in the pessimistic scenario.
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Harjono, Sucipto, and Riko Hendrawan. "Valuation of Indonesian Cable Company with Free Cash Flow to Firm and Relative Valuation." Journal of Social Research 2, no. 10 (2023): 3671–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.55324/josr.v2i10.1433.
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During 2014 - 2018, cable companies in Indonesia showed an 8.52% average annual revenue growth. Unfortunately, analysts are responding to this growth negatively. Hence, In this study, we will conduct a valuation of six cable companies in Indonesia that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). We evaluate using two methods, namely Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) to get the Intrinsic Value of shares, Relative Valuation using Price to Book Value ( PBV), and Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) to validate the intrinsic value. The valuation results consider three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, the Intrinsic Value of JECC, KBLI, and VOKS shares are overvalued in all scenarios, while IKBI, KBLM, and SCCO are undervalued throughout the scenario. Validation using PBV for the optimistic scenario, all companies are considered overvalued. For the moderate scenario, the PBV of IKBI, KBLI, and VOKS are overvalued, while JECC, KBLM, and SCCO are undervalued. As for the pessimistic scenario, only the PBV of IKBI is overvalued. Validation using PER for the optimistic scenario, the PER of IKBI, JECC, KBLM, and SCCO are overvalued, while the PER of KBLI and VOKS are undervalued. For the moderate scenarios, the PER of IKBI and SCCO are overvalued, while the PER of JECC, KBLI, KBLM, and VOKS are undervalued. Whereas for the pessimistic scenario, only the PER of IKBI is overvalued, while JECC, KBLI, KBLM, SCCO, and VOKS are undervalued.
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Idayuwati Alaudin, Ros, Noriszura Ismail, and Zaidi Isa. "Projection of Retirement Adequacy using Wealth-Need Ratio: Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios." International Journal of Social Science and Humanity 6, no. 5 (2016): 332–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/ijssh.2016.v6.667.
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Rachman, Arif, and Dwi Fitrizal Salim. "Fair Value Assessment for Industrial Goods Stocks in Indonesia Post-Pandemic." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 12, no. 2 (2023): 98–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v12i2.2838.
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Many industrial sectors were severely affected during the pandemic, which lasted from 2020 to 2021. Such indicators can be observed in various companies implementing efficiency measures ranging from cost reduction unrelated to revenue growth to layoff policies. Despite being under pressure due to the pandemic, many industrial subsectors experienced significant growth in the second quarter of 2021, according to statistics from the Ministry of Industry. This study aims to determine the fair value of shares in Industrial Goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This approach uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology with free cash flow to the company and relative valuation through price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios. From 2017 to 2021, historical financial data was utilized to forecast future income and expenditure behavior in three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The results showed that the DCF-FCFF technique underestimated IMPC, ARNA, and UNTR. MARK is overvalued in pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios, while MARK is undervalued in optimistic scenarios. HEXA is overvalued in the pessimistic scenario but undervalued in the moderate and optimistic scenario. ARNA and UNTR were overvalued in all relative assessment scenarios using the PER approach, but MARK and HEXA were undervalued. IMPC is undervalued in a gloomy scenario and overpriced in a moderate and optimistic scenario. In all cases, the PBV method overestimates IMPC, ARNA, MARK, HEXA, and UNTR. The study implies that investors should conduct thorough due diligence before making investment decisions, considering company-specific factors and broader market conditions. Companies in the Industrial Goods sector must be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics and prioritize long-term value creation to attract and maintain investor confidence.
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Ratuinsani, Tati Mushalihati, Haris Muhammadun, and Laksono Djoko Nugroho. "ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WATU ULO FISHERY PORT IN JEMBER DISTRICT REVIEWED FROM FINANCIAL ASPECTS AND SENSITIVITY ASPECTS." International Journal Science and Technology 3, no. 2 (2024): 48–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.56127/ijst.v3i2.1254.
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Watu Ulo Beach is a concentration of fishing communities as a place to fill supplies to catch fish at sea and as a landing place for fish catches. The local government intends to build a fishing port in Watu Ulo to improve facilities and infrastructure for fishermen in catching fish. This study aims to determine the feasibility of investment in the development of fishing ports in terms of financial aspects and sensitivity. The research method uses three scenarios for the value of income, namely the pessimistic scenario, moderate scenario, optimistic scenario. The results of the financial feasibility analysis using the NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP methods were declared feasible for the moderate scenario and optimistic scenario while the pessimistic scenario analysis results were not feasible because the IRR (6.15%) < MARR (7.72%) The results of the sensitivity analysis stated that with three scenarios on the Value of Revenue and Operating Costs obtained the results of Sensitivity The value of revenue for the pessimistic scenario is sensitive at -13.67% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes unfeasible. The revenue value for the moderate sensitive scenario is -39.96% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes unfeasible. The value of income for an optimistic scenario is sensitive at -40.75% if it is smaller than that, the investment becomes unfeasible. The revenue value for the optimistic scenario is sensitive at -40.75%, if it is smaller than that, the investment is not feasible. And if the Operating Cost Sensitivity for the pessimistic scenario is sensitive at -15.96%, if it is smaller than that, the investment is not feasible. Operating Costs for a moderate sensitive scenario at +22.67% if it is greater than that, the investment becomes unfeasible. Operating Costs for the optimistic scenario are sensitive at 25.59% if greater than that then the investment becomes unviable.
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Alisyukur, La Ode, Sunarto Sunarto, and Muh Aris Marfai. "SKENARIO PENGELOLAAN KEPESISIRAN BERKELANJUTAN KABUPATEN BUTON SELATAN, PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGGARA." ECOTROPHIC : Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan (Journal of Environmental Science) 14, no. 2 (2020): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/ejes.2020.v14.i02.p01.
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The coastal zone of South Buton Regency consists of unique ecosystems and abundant natural resources, but facing problems, mainly in terms of conflict between economic needs and ecological aspects. This study aims to set up scenarios for sustainable coastal zone management (SCZM) in South Buton Regency that are synergistic and benefit all stakeholders, without disregarding the principals of ecological conservation. Data were collected by interviews and field observations and were analyzed using prospective analysis method. Comprehensive analyisis were performed encompassing the effects and interactions of key components of the successfulness of the SCZM in South Buton based on the stakeholders desires. Three environmental management scenarios were assessed, namely: the conservative-pessimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are at minimum levels, the moderate-optimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are about 50%, and the progressive-optimistic scenario, in which all the key components are addressed for refinements. Results of the prospective analysis show that the moderate-optimistic scenario was the most appropriate scheme to be implemented for the sustainable coastal zone management in South Buton Regency, follows by progressive-optimistic and conservative-pessimistic scenarios, respectively.
 Keywords: Coastal zone; Key components; Prospective analysis; Environmental management
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios"
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Kholondyrev, Yury. "Optimistic and pessimistic shortest paths on uncertain terrains." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/32577.
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In the Uncertain Terrain Shortest Path problem we consider a triangulated terrain with vertices having uncertain Z-coordinates: each vertex is denned as a (x,y,z―,z+) tuple, where the z coordinate of a vertex is uncertain and can be anywhere in the range from z― to z+. We are looking for a path (defined by its projection to the XY- plane) such that, over all possible terrains, the path is as short as possible. We look at both pessimistic (terrain arranges itself to maximize the length of the path that we choose) and optimistic (terrain takes the state that minimizes the length of our path) scenarios. We restrict ourselves to walk only along the edges of the terrain.
The unrestricted problem (when we are allowed to walk on the faces of the terrain) has been proven to be NP-hard in both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. We prove that the edge-restricted pessimistic problem is NP-hard by providing a reduction from the SUBSET-SUM problem and give a polynomial time algorithm for the edge-restricted optimistic problem.<br>Science, Faculty of<br>Computer Science, Department of<br>Graduate
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Roitch, Vladimir. "Optimistic and pessimistic ambiguous chance constraints with applications." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/55238.
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In this thesis, we consider optimisation problems which involve ambiguous chance constraints, i.e., probabilistic constraints where the probability distribution of the primitive uncertainties is at least partly unknown. In this case, we can define an ambiguity set that contains all distributions consistent with our prior knowledge of the uncertainty and take either a pessimistic (worst-case) or optimistic (best-case) view of the world. The former view can be used to actively optimise a system whilst guaranteeing some predefined level of safety; being robust even if the worst-case scenario materialises. The latter view can be used to actively optimise a system where it is required to reconstruct realisations of a random variable whose distribution is not known precisely. We characterise the ambiguity set through generalised moment bounds and structural properties such as symmetry, unimodality, or independence patterns. Sufficient conditions are presented under which the corresponding chance constraints admit equivalent explicit tractable conic reformulations that can be solved with off-the-shelf solvers. However, in general, ambiguous chance constrained problems are provably difficult and we suggest efficiently computable conservative approximations. To illustrate the effectiveness of our reformulations, we give two detailed and novel examples. First, we consider the pricing problem of a provider of cloud computing services. This provider faces uncertain demand and wishes to maximise profit, whilst maintaining a desired level of quality of service. We show that such a problem naturally fits within the pessimistic ambiguous chance constraint framework. Second, we consider the problem of improving the quality of a photographic image by reconstructing and then removing noise. We show that such a problem can be formulated as an optimistic ambiguous chance constrained program that generalises, and offers new insight to, an existing powerful image denoising approach.
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Hawkins, Mary T., and mikewood@deakin edu au. "Exploring optimistic and pessimistic attributions in depression-specific mood." Deakin University. School of Psychology, 2004. http://tux.lib.deakin.edu.au./adt-VDU/public/adt-VDU20050815.093235.
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Cognitive theories of depression include maladaptive thinking styles as depressive vulnerabilities. The hopelessness theory of depression (Abramson, Metalsky, & Alloy, 1989) particularly implicates stable and global attributions for negative events as influences upon depression. Positive event attributions are considered less influential, yet they have shown equal predictiveness to negative event attributions for depression-specific mood. Previous research has provided equivocal results largely because of cross-sectional design and modest psychometric properties of the measures. The present research aimed to: create a new instrument to measure optimistic and pessimistic attributions; test the relatedness of attributions for positive and negative events; and, clarify relationships of the scales with optimism and mood. Three studies were undertaken, all of which used structural equation modeling. Two cross-sectional studies, using 342 and 332 community participants respectively, developed and validated the Questionnaire of Explanatory Style (QES). A final longitudinal study with 250 community participants tested the predictive validity of the QES. Overall, six scales were developed, three of which were optimistic and three of which were negative. The scales were acceptable to community samples and had adequate psychometric properties. The optimistic scales were attributions for positive events and the negative scales were attributions for negative events rather than pessimistic scales. Cross-sectional results indicated that only one of the negative scales weakly directly predicted depression-specific mood, but all predicted general psychological distress. By contrast, the optimistic scales were more directly predictive of depression-specific mood, particularly the Positive Disposition scale. Longitudinal results indicated that two of the optimistic scales were the most important QES predictors of depression-specific mood two months later. The optimistic scale Positive Disposition appears most central to the prediction of both concurrent and subsequent depression-specific mood. The scale content represents explanations for positive events that are internal and stable characteristics. These may be construed as personal competencies to bring about positive outcomes. This scale is closely allied to measures of optimism. Findings affirm the importance of optimistic attributions to the understanding of depression-specific mood and provide a productive focus for therapeutic intervention and future research.
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Mostoufi, Sheeva. "Is pessimism adaptive? Moderators of the relationship between optimistic / pessimistic bias and depressive symptoms /." Connect to resource, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1811/28371.
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Thesis (Honors)--Ohio State University, 2007.<br>Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages: contains 49 p.; also includes graphics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 40-43). Available online via Ohio State University's Knowledge Bank.
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McGregor, Leanne. "Expecting to Be Rejected or Accepted: Children’s Optimistic and Pessimistic Relationship Expectations, Divorce, Interparental Conflict and Parenting." Thesis, Griffith University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/365308.
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Based on recent estimates within Australia, approximately 32% of marriages
end in divorce, and almost 50% of these families include children. Divorce can be
distressing for children, as revealed by investigations comparing children from intact
and divorced families on conduct, psychological adjustment, self-concept, and social
adjustment (Amato, 2000). These early comparisons, however, were usually
accomplished without consideration of other aspects of the family system (i.e., family
processes). More recently, researchers have investigated family structure and family
processes as correlates of children’s adjustment. One important aspect of children’s
adjustment is the development of their expectations of social relationships with others.
Founded in attachment theory and social cognitive theories of the need to belong and
concerns about rejection, family problems and divorce have been proposed as
correlates of children’s ways of thinking about their current and future relationships
(children’s relationship expectations), but this has received little research attention.
In the final of the three studies reported here, family structure and processes
were expected to be correlates of children’s relationship expectations. Prior to testing
these hypotheses, however, available measures of children’s relationship expectations
were identified. This revealed that there was no existing measure that assessed
optimistic and pessimistic relationship expectations, which could be quickly
completed by both children and early adolescents. Hence, a new measure was
developed in the first two studies by drawing on the literature on relationship models
and cognitions (e.g., rejection and interpersonal sensitivity, and working models of
self and others in relationships), and the optimism/pessimism literature. The
exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses results reported in Study 1 (N = 226;
ages 9 to 12 years) and Study 2 (N = 200; ages 9 to 12 years) resulted in a 16-item
measure of children’s optimistic and pessimistic relationship expectations with
reference to peers and “other people.” This measure was found to consist of two
subscales, labelled optimistic relationship expectations and pessimistic relationship
expectations. All 16 items contained statements about peers and others in general. The
two subscales were shown to be moderately correlated, and to be reliable and valid.
In Study 3, 837 children (aged 9 to 13 years) completed the new measure of
relationship expectations about peers and others. In addition, items that assessed
children’s expectations about family relationships were included and found to produce
a single scale representing optimistic family relationship expectations. These
measures of children’s relationship expectations were expected to be correlates of
divorce, interparental conflict and parenting. Children completed measures of
relationships expectations, experience of interparental conflict, and their mothers’ and
fathers’ parenting in the form of warmth, autonomy support, structure, rejection,
coercion and chaos. Parents reported about family structure and divorce history.
Results of Study 3 revealed that children who had experienced family
dissolution reported less optimistic family relationship expectations than children from
intact families and this was more pronounced the longer the period since the divorce.
Regarding children’s relationship expectations of peers and others, regression models
showed divorce was not associated with either optimistic or pessimistic expectations.
Yet, interparental conflict was associated with children’s relationship expectations of
both family and peers/others, but was no longer a significant unique correlate after
parenting was added to the models. Parenting, particularly children’s report of
mothers’ warmth and autonomy support, was associated with children’s expectations
of relationships with family, peers and others in general. Yet, fathers’ parenting did
seem to play some role, as well; children who reported more autonomy support from
their fathers also had more optimistic expectations of peers/others and children who
reported more coercion and rejection by their fathers had less optimistic family
relationship expectations. Moreover, children who reported more rejection by their
mothers also reported more pessimistic relationship expectations with peers/others.
Finally, it was expected that parenting might moderate associations between
divorce and children’s relationship expectations. This was the case for positive
parenting by mothers when the outcomes were family relationship expectations and
optimistic expectations of peers/others. It was also the case for positive parenting by
fathers and negative parenting by mothers when the outcome was family relationship
expectations. Children reported the highest optimistic relationship expectations when
they lived in intact families and reported positive parenting by mothers; the highest
optimistic family relationship expectations when they lived in intact families and
reported positive parenting by fathers; and the lowest family relationship expectations
when they had experienced family dissolution and reported that their mothers were
low in positive parenting qualities or high in negative parenting qualities.
In summary, divorce has a significant association with family relationship
expectations but not with peer/other relationship expectations, and parenting is the
most direct correlate of relationship expectations regardless of whether these
expectations are of family or peers/others. Children are more optimistic about their
future family relationships when they report more positive parenting (warmth,
autonomy support, structure) from mothers and lower negative parenting (coercion,
rejection) by fathers. Additionally, positive parenting by both mothers and fathers and
an absence of negative parenting by mothers seems to buffer children from the
negative effect of divorce on their optimistic expectations of family. These findings
are important for understanding how children view relationships and could be used to
give assistance to families going through the divorce process. Implications for theory,
research and intervention, as well as future directions, are discussed.<br>Thesis (PhD Doctorate)<br>Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)<br>School of Psychology<br>Griffith Health<br>Full Text
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Le, Roux Anli. "Screening African Conflicts : the different faces of Africa's child soldiers - Afro-pessimistic / Afro-optimistic portrayals on screen." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11715.
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Includes abstract.<br>Includes bibliographical references.<br>When discussing and addressing child soldiering in Africa, both in print or in film, there are a number of key factors that need to be considered. For example, taking into account the root causes for both recruitment and voluntary enlistment - which include the changed nature of weapons and warfare, the breakdown of law and order, and intolerable levels of poverty, unemployment and also the social pressures on children to engage in armed conflicts. By bearing these factors in mind when delving into this complex subject matter, helped in ascertaining the ways in which certain modalities of thinking about Africa, as well as her child soldiers, influence Western perspectives, convictions and beliefs via a variety of media. However, for this particular dissertation, the focus is turned entirely to the Afro-pessimistic / Afro-optimistic cinematic representations of African child soldiers in three case study films: Ezra (2007), The Silent Army (2008) and War Witch (2012). These films were closely analysed at the hand of certain research question which ultimately allowed for both researcher and reader to keep an open mind when being confronted with the different faces of Africa’s children on screen.
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Silent, Night Dr D. Jim Reeves [Verfasser], and C. [Verfasser] Esakkiappan. "Optimistic and Pessimistic Adolescence : A comparison of Physical Fitness and Physiological variables / Dr. D. Jim Reeves Silent Night, C. Esakkiappan." Hamburg : Anchor Academic Publishing, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1110039387/34.
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Arunachalam, Aravinthan. "Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process." FIU Digital Commons, 2008. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/59.
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The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.
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Švolba, Martin. "Finanční projekt převzatého podniku." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-85297.
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The goal of this thesis is to create a financial project of Take-over Company and specify the steps that lead to its profitability. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first, theoretical section describes the calculations used, marketing plan and market analysis. The second part is practical and there is specifically described a plan how to deal with building a restaurant with bowling and beach sports pitch in the town Rakovník and what is the expected development during the first five years. Key to the success of company is the marketing plan and the use of employee benefits in the cooperating companies. The thesis should provide the appropriate basis for investor and subsequent realization of the project.
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Palazon, Tiphaine. "Cognitive bias and welfare of egg-laying chicks: Impacts of commercial hatchery procedures on cognition." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Biologi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-170777.
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Egg-laying hens coming from commercial hatchery go through hatchery procedures considered as stressful and engaging prolonged stress response in adult chickens. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of commercial hatching procedure on the affective state of chicks, on their short- and long-term memory and on their need for social reinstatement. To assess the affective state of the chicks we used a cognitive bias protocol integrating the ecological response of a chick to the picture of another chick, to an owl and to an ambiguous cue mixing features of both the chickand the owl pictures. Short-term memory was evaluated by using a delayed matching-to-sample experiment (with 10, 30,60 and 120 s delays), with conspecifics as sample stimuli. We assessed long-term memory with an arena containing multiple doors leading to conspecifics, in which a chick had to remember which door was open after a delay of one hour or three hours. Finally, we observed the need for social reinstatement through a sociality test arena allowing a chick to be more or less close to conspecifics. We found that chicks coming from commercial hatchery were in a depressive affective state compare to control group. Those chicks also showed higher need for social reinstatement and loss weight. No differences were found regarding short- and long-time working memory between the two groups, but the methods used during these experiments will be discussed. Studying how commercial procedures impact the cognition and more specifically the emotions and state of mind of chickens, is a necessary step forward into the understanding of farm animals’ welfare.
Books on the topic "Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios"
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Davis, Angela Kay. Beyond the numbers: An analysis of optimistic and pessimistic language in earnings press releases. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006.
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Hasselaar, Jan Jorrit. Climate Change, Radical Uncertainty and Hope. Amsterdam University Press, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.5117/9789048558476.
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Views on climate change are often either pessimistic or optimistic. In this book Jan Jorrit Hasselaar discovers and explores a third way, one of hope. A debate within economics on risk and uncertainty brings him to theological questions and the concept of hope in the work of the late Jonathan Sacks—and to a renewed way of doing theology as an account of the good life. What follows is an equal conversation between theology and economics as has hardly been undertaken in recent times. It emerges that hope is not contrary to economic insights, but remarkably compatible with them. Communication between these fields of expertise can open the way for a courageous and creative embrace of radical uncertainty in climate change. A key notion here is that of a public Sabbath, or a ‘workplace of hope’—times and places set aside to cultivate inspiration and mutual trust among all parties involved, enabling them to take concrete steps forward.
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Wilkinson, Angela, and Betty Sue Flowers, eds. Realistic Hope. Amsterdam University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.5117/9789462987241.
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We are running out of water, robots will take our jobs, we are eating ourselves to an early death, old age pension and health systems are bankrupting governments, and an immigration crisis is unravelling the European integration project. A growing number of nightmares, perfect storms, and global catastrophes create fear of the future. One response is technocratic optimism — we’ll invent our way out of these impending crises. Or we’ll simply ignore them as politically too hot to handle, too uncomfortable for experts — denied until crisis hits. History is littered with late lessons from early warnings. Cynicism is an excuse for inaction. Populism flourishes in the depths of despair. Despite the gloom, there is another way to look at the future. We don’t have to be pessimistic or optimistic — we can find realistic hope. This book is written by an international and influential collection of future shapers. It is aimed at anyone who is interested in learning to refresh the present, forge new common ground, and redesign the future.
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Rozenberg, Julie, and Stéphane Hallegatte. Poor People on the Front Line: The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198813248.003.0002.
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The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on socio-economic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. In this chapter, two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds, one optimistic and one pessimistic regarding poverty. Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the optimistic scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive in the pessimistic scenario.
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Davis, Justin Christopher. A Pessimistic View of an Optimistic Love Story. CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2016.
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Harlov, Alicia, Allyssa Stratton, and Alexandra Warden. Navigating Navicular Disease: An Optimistic Guide for a Pessimistic Diagnosis. Humble Hoof, The, 2024.
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Analysis of Optimistic and Pessimistic Language in Earnings Press Releases. GRIN Verlag GmbH, 2013.
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Amit, Raut. Academic Aspiration Confidence and Optimistic Pessimistic Attitudes among Vocational and Non-Professional Students. Phoebus Publishing Company, 2022.
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Tesón, Fernando R. Appendix The Iraq War. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190202903.003.0007.
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RECENT EMPIRICAL RESEARCH HAS CONFIRMED what most of us suspected: some humanitarian interventions succeed, others fail.1 Neither optimistic liberal interventionism nor pessimistic realist noninterventionism have carried the day. Taylor Seybolt lists as reasonably successful interventions the protection of Kurds in northern Iraq in 1992,...
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Rosenberg, Alex. Lessons for Cognitive Science from Neurogenomics. Edited by John Bickle. Oxford University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195304787.003.0007.
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This article discusses the lessons from neurogenomics that are applicable to cognitive science. It argues that the work of some leading cognitive scientists who employed the resources of neurogenomics has already provided strong grounds to be pessimistic about the representations to which a computational theory of mind is committed, and to be optimistic about the syntactic character of processes of thinking and reasoning in the brain. It also discusses research findings concerning how the brain recalls memories and the storage of explicit memories.
Book chapters on the topic "Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios"
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Gürbüz, Mustafa Çağrı, Victoria Muerza, Irene Marchiori, and Andrea Zangiacomi. "Unveiling the Challenges of Future Supply Chains: An Explorative Analysis." In Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63505-3_5.
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AbstractThis chapter focuses on the identification of challenges that supply chains of the future will most likely face. The primary input in this process are the potential optimistic/pessimistic/intermediate future scenarios based on trends within political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental dimensions. Based on such input, we present a list of major challenges/opportunities in relation to the design and operations of Supply Chains (SCs) in the near future. The preliminary list is calibrated and validated based on the input from industry stakeholders (to account for the perspectives of different supply chain actors such as buyers, suppliers, policy makers, and supply chain facilitators) in order to make sure that these challenges are indeed of practical relevance and grounded in reality. The aforementioned challenges are aggregated into several clusters aiming at providing decision makers with a tool that would enable them to quickly and easily spot the relevant challenges and take proper actions to mitigate any potential risk.
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Schmid, Stefan, Nicolas Schnepf, and Jiří Srba. "Resilient Capacity-Aware Routing." In Tools and Algorithms for the Construction and Analysis of Systems. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-72016-2_22.
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AbstractTo ensure a high availability, communication networks provide resilient routing mechanisms that quickly change routes upon failures. However, a fundamental algorithmic question underlying such mechanisms is hardly understood: how to verify whether a given network reroutes flows along feasible paths, without violating capacity constraints, for up to k link failures? We chart the algorithmic complexity landscape of resilient routing under link failures, considering shortest path routing based on link weights as e.g. deployed in the ECMP protocol. We study two models: a pessimistic model where flows interfere in a worst-case manner along equal-cost shortest paths, and an optimistic model where flows are routed in a best-case manner, and we present a complete picture of the algorithmic complexities. We further propose a strategic search algorithm that checks only the critical failure scenarios while still providing correctness guarantees. Our experimental evaluation on a benchmark of Internet and datacenter topologies confirms an improved performance of our strategic search by several orders of magnitude.
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Gardner, Hall. "Future Pessimistic Scenarios." In Crimea, Global Rivalry, and the Vengeance of History. Palgrave Macmillan US, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137528179_9.
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Bazydło, Marcin, Szymon Francuzik, Cezary Sobaniec, and Dariusz Wawrzyniak. "Combining Optimistic and Pessimistic Replication." In Parallel Processing and Applied Mathematics. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-31464-3_3.
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Corte, Erik De. "A Globalizing, Optimistic-Pessimistic Educational Researcher." In Leaders in Educational Research. SensePublishers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6209-764-3_3.
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Shibayama, Etsuya, and Akinori Yonezawa. "Optimistic and pessimistic synchronization in distributed computing." In Lecture Notes in Computer Science. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bfb0024159.
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Pacholczyk, Daniel, Mohamed Quafafou, and Laurent Garcia. "Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Interpretation of Linguistic Negation." In Artificial Intelligence: Methodology, Systems, and Applications. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/3-540-46148-5_14.
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Radick, Gregory. "Theory-Ladenness as a Problem for Plant Data Linkage." In Towards Responsible Plant Data Linkage: Data Challenges for Agricultural Research and Development. Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13276-6_2.
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AbstractThis paper draws upon the history of scientific studies of inheritance in Mendel’s best-remembered model organism, the garden pea, as a source of two parables – one pessimistic, the other optimistic – on the challenges of data linkage in plants. The moral of the pessimistic parable, from the era of the biometrician-Mendelian controversy, is that the problem of theory-ladenness in data sets can be a major stumbling block to making new uses of old data. The moral of the optimistic parable, from the long-run history of studies at the John Innes Centre of aberrant or “rogue” pea varieties, is that an excellent guarantor of the continued value of old data sets is the availability of the relevant physical materials – in the first instance, the plant seeds.
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Liu, Caihui, Jin Qian, Nan Zhang, and Meizhi Wang. "Covering-Based Optimistic-Pessimistic Multigranulation Decision-Theoretic Rough Sets." In Rough Sets. Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99368-3_11.
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Wekesa, Bob. "African Perceptions of the BRICS: Optimistic, Pessimistic or Pragmatic?" In The BRICS Order. Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2_9.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios"
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Čakanišin, Adrián, and Mária Halenárová. "Monte Carlo as a Method for Examining of Business Changes in Tourism in Slovakia." In 25th International Joint Conference Central and Eastern Europe in the Changing Business Environment. Vydavateľstvo EKONÓM, 2025. https://doi.org/10.53465/ceecbe.2025.9788022552257.50-63.
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The business environment in tourism encompasses a set of factors influencing the establishment, development, and sustainability of businesses in this sector, including economic, legislative, and market conditions. The dynamics of this environment are crucial for the economic stability of the sector. The main objective of this paper is to model the development of business establishments and closures in the tourism sector based on historical data and the influence of selected factors. The data used for this study were obtained from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic upon request. To achieve this objective, correlation and regression analysis were employed to examine relationships between economic variables, while a Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict future business activity trends. The results indicated that there are only moderately statistically significant relationships between economic factors and business establishment or closure. Domestic tourists' expenditures showed a weak positive correlation with business formation, whereas expenditures on inbound tourism had the opposite effect. The Monte Carlo simulation suggested that, assuming historical trends continue, the number of newly established businesses will stabilize at around 7,500 per year, while the number of closed businesses will be approximately 6,000 per year. Extreme scenarios demonstrated that economic fluctuations could lead to significant deviations, with the pessimistic scenario predicting a higher number of business closures and the optimistic scenario indicating a more favorable sectoral development.
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Camacho-Vallejo, José-Fernando, and Carlos Corpus. "A Nested Evolutionary Algorithm for Solving a Bilevel Competitive Location Problem: Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Approaches." In 2024 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cec60901.2024.10611763.
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Dugarte, M., and A. A. Sagüés. "Modeling Performance of Galvanic Point Anodes for Cathodic Prevention of Reinforcing Steel in Concrete Repairs." In CORROSION 2013. NACE International, 2013. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2013-02840.
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Abstract This paper addresses projecting the performance of point anodes for patch repairs applications as function of service parameters and anode aging. Input data from a concurrent experimental test program are presented as well. Modeling of a generic patch configuration was implemented by a simplified finite differences method. The model calculates the throwing distance that could be achieved by a given number of anodes per unit perimeter of the patch, concrete thickness, concrete resistivity, amount of steel and amount of polarization needed for cathodic prevention. The model projections and aging data suggest that anode performance in likely application scenarios may derate soon even if a relatively optimistic 100 mV corrosion prevention criterion were assumed. The effect of adopting less conservative criteria proposed in the literature is presented as well and the need for supporting information is discussed.
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Todorov, Miroslav, and Mihail Todorov. "COMPLEX ENGINEERING DESIGN OF COASTAL PROTECTION." In 24th SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 24. STEF92 Technology, 2024. https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2024/1.1/s02.20.
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In the face of an ever-evolving environment, a crucial challenge emerges concerning the dynamic interplay between the sea and the land. Amidst these complexities, a fundamental question arises: should human intervention seek to reshape the natural processes, or should it primarily focus on comprehensive understanding, aiming to maintain a semblance of equilibrium? These intricacies, along with several important technical considerations, underscore the imperative to safeguard coastal regions against the escalating impact of the sea. This study, in response to the urgent demands of the environment, examines a distinct section of the offshore expanse of the Black Sea, where the ceaseless advance of the sea erodes nearly 10 meters of land area annually. The research embarks on a multidimensional exploration, encompassing an analysis of climatological data, meticulous observation of marine circulation patterns and litorial drift, geological investigations of the area, and a holistic assessment of potential scenarios�ranging from the optimistic to more conservative. Drawing on a robust foundation of studies conducted over the past quarter-century, coupled with insights obtained during the design process, the study establishes a projection extending to the 2100. Encompassing a coastal span of 11 kilometers, the quantitative parameters derived from these comprehensive studies lay the groundwork for the formulation of innovative solutions. The project�s design blueprint encompasses intricate coastal protection systems, including the construction of peninsulas, remote defense mechanisms, and anti-abrasion structures within the intertidal beach zone. Tailored to the distinctive sediment dynamics of this specific coastal stretch, the project is uniquely oriented towards fostering conducive conditions for the accumulation of beach formations and, crucially, a substantial reduction in direct maritime incursions. Illuminated by sophisticated predictive models, which underpin the complex design choices, the forecasts suggest a promising trajectory for the coming decade�a trajectory marked by commendable progress and a considerable curtailment of the sea�s encroachment onto the land.
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Obhuo, Mafel, Duabari S. Aziaka, Dodeye I. Igbong, and Ibirabo M. Obhuo. "Associated Gas Utilization Using a Reheat Gas Turbine – Part 1: The Impact of Engine Degradation on the Optimized Power, Energy, and Revenue From Sold Electricity." In ASME Turbo Expo 2021: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2021-59778.
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Abstract This study presents a methodology for optimizing the power from a fleet of engines that use associated gas as fuel. The effects of engine degradation on optimized power, energy, and electricity revenue have been evaluated. The Cranfield University TURBOMATCH has been used to simulate a 296MW reheat gas turbine. Four scenarios were considered — clean, optimistic, medium, and pessimistic. Genetic algorithm was used in optimizing the power generated from the fleets. In the sequence of clean, optimistic, medium, and pessimistic fleets, the optimization results show that the total optimized power values are 7324.6, 7245.1, 7164.0, and 7074.4MW respectively. In the same sequence, the total energy generated is 64.2, 63.5, 62.8, and 61.9 billion kWh. In a similar sequence still, the electricity revenue is 8.487, 8.390, 8.298, and 8.192 billion US dollars respectively. In comparison with the clean, engine degradation resulted in a 1.09%, 2.19%, and 3.42% decrease in energy for the optimistic, medium, and pessimistic degraded fleets respectively. In the same sequence as the decrease in energy, degradation resulted in a 1.15%, 2.23%, and 3.48% decrease in electricity revenue. The methodology and results presented in this paper would serve as a guide for associated gas investors in the economic utilization of this fuel resource. This is innovative; it has not been done with the Alstom GT-26 engine.
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Phettongkam, Numan, Hien Ngo, Arisa Ruangsirikulchai, et al. "Minimising Reservoir Top Structure Uncertainty through Integration of Seismic Horizon Well-Tied Top Interpretation and Geosteering Distance-to-Bed-Boundary Calculation from Azimuthal Resistivity Tool: Case Study from Offshore Thailand." In International Petroleum Technology Conference. IPTC, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/iptc-23018-ms.
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Abstract Reservoir top structure interpretation through seismic usually associated with uncertainty especially when sparse number of wells are available. This leads to uncertainty in gross rock volume and oil-in-place calculation. It is quite common with reservoir top interpretation picking varies significantly from optimistic to pessimistic case especially at the point distant away from wellbore. This paper integrates the geosteering distance-to-boundary (DTB) calculation from horizontal well drilling to minimize the uncertainty window of top interpretation from surface seismic to deliver more accurate remaining oil-in place. During the geosteering operation, seismic horizon interpretation of reservoir target sand with multiple scenarios in offshore field was compared with the distance to boundary calculation that map the reservoir top structure with azimuthal resistivity tool. Prior to geosteer horizontal well in the oil-rim reservoir after long production, pilot hole was drilled to update the current fluid contact. Reservoir top interpretation is revised by including horizon top structure tied to well data from the pilot hole and existing wells in the area. The revised top structure which includes the pessimistic and optimistic case generally has significant difference in remaining OIP. Upon geosteering horizontal well, DTB calculation from azimuthal resistivity tool was capable to map the top reservoir boundary in real-time with reference from the seismic top interpretation from heel to toe of the lateral with good quality mapping of entire top reservoir structure. Distance to boundary (DTB) with good quality of top reservoir structure mapping throughout the section tracked closely to optimistic case of seismic top interpretation of target sand. Geosteering with azimuthal resistivity with RSS directional tool mapped the top of the reservoir on the upside and OWC from the downside up to 4.8 m away from the tool. As the top is expected to dip down and intersected the trajectory at multiple scenarios, the mapped boundary provided insights of gentle dipping trend, suggesting the top of reservoir could extend laterally longer than pessimistic case. With the result closer to optimistic case, the calculated remaining OIP volume calculated was on the optimistic side with significant difference, larger volume, from pessimistic case of OIP calculation. Integration of seismic top interpretation with geosteering distance to boundary application in lateral well could minimize the uncertainty in reservoir top horizon interpretation. The workflow enabled to place the well in the sweet spot while managing the uncertainty of top structure. With production from horizontal well, the well production rate is expected to increase to 2900 BOPD for initial oil production compare to below 1000 BOPD prior to horizontal well drilling. This workflow could be applied for future lateral well with high uncertainty of the target to place the well in sweetspot for field life extension and production optimization.
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Da Silva, Daniel, Ícaro Rodrigues, Antonio Braga, Juvêncio Nobre, Breno Freitas, and Danielo Gomes. "An Autonomic, Adaptive and High-Precision Statistical Model to Determine Bee Colonies Well-Being Scenarios." In Workshop de Computação Aplicada à Gestão do Meio Ambiente e Recursos Naturais. Sociedade Brasileira de Computação - SBC, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5753/wcama.2020.11017.
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Honey bees, important pollinators, are threatened by a variety of pests, pathogens and extreme climatic events, such as the winter period. This paper proposes a two-stages model that seeks to define and predict evolutionary scenarios for improving the bee colonies’ well-being. The used dataset has data from both internal and external beehive sensors, and on-site inspection of beekeepers from six apiaries between the years 2016-2018. In the first stage, three evolutionary scenarios were obtained (pessimistic, conservative and optimistic) through the clustering technique. In the second one, aiming to classify these scenarios, an elastic net penalty logistic regression model was obtained with an accuracy of ~99.5%.
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Kovačević, Katarina, and Uroš Ognjenović. "ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF SYSTEM RELIABILITY INDICES ON REGULATORY APPROVED REVENUE." In 14. Savetovanje o elektrodistributivnim mrežama Srbije, sa regionalnim učešćem. CIRED Liaison Committee of Serbia, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/cired24.r-5.13kk.
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Starting from January 1, 2026, the regulatory approved revenue of the distribution system operator in Montenegro will depend on the target values of reliability indices of the distribution system. This paper describes the Methodology for determining the regulatory approved revenue, specifically focusing on the target values of reliability indices. The study indices a review of historical data, a comparison with available data from similar systems and fitting historical data for predicting future values. The objective of the paper is to analyze possible scenarios (pessimistic, realistic and optimistic) regarding the regulatory approved revenue of the distribution system operator in realtion to fitted and target values of reliability indices. The conclusions based on the obtained results are provided at the end of the paper.
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Clemente, Violeta, and Fátima Pombo. "From Utopia to Dystopia: Students Insights for the Development of Contemporary Societies through Design Fiction." In 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1001421.
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This work describes an educational experience exploring the speculative essence of Design Fiction as a pedagogical tool to promote engineering students’ thinking skills within a Design Thinking course. The experience took place at a Portuguese University during the academic year 2021/2022. Students were challenged to speculate about the future of contemporary societies by developing a Design Fiction Scenario around the themes of Sustainability, Future and Technology. After describing the approach adopted and overall data about the intervention, some selected students ideas are presented. Then, students’ written essays content is analyzed regarding their awareness, concerns and hopes about the future of contemporary societies. Results show that while some of the teams followed the direction of utopia, envisioning desirable scenarios to the future, other teams adopted a less optimistic view and designed scenarios where contemporary societies and technology would lead to extreme situations or even chaos, a few of them even raising strong ethical issues. In some cases, it seems rather evident that students deliberately proceeded with these pessimistic scenarios intentionally trying to provoke reactions and stimulate debate among their peers. In other cases students appear to not be aware of those possible dangerous outcomes. Finally we discuss the value and limitations of our approach and conclude by suggesting some guidelines to apply in future interventions aiming to the role of Design as discipline in creating utopian and dystopian fictions regarding scenarios of future development.
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Bredereck, Robert, Andrzej Kaczmarczyk, and Rolf Niedermeier. "On Coalitional Manipulation for Multiwinner Elections: Shortlisting." In Twenty-Sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2017/123.
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Shortlisting of candidates—selecting a group of “best” candidates—is a special case of multiwinner elections. We provide the first in-depth study of the computational complexity of strategic voting for shortlisting based on the most natural and simple voting rule in this scenario, l-Bloc (every voter approves l candidates). In particular, we investigate the influence of several tie-breaking mechanisms (e.g. pessimistic versus optimistic) and group evaluation functions (e.g. egalitarian versus utilitarian) and conclude that in an egalitarian setting strategic voting may indeed be computationally intractable regardless of the tie-breaking rule. We provide a fairly comprehensive picture of the computational complexity landscape of this neglected scenario.
Reports on the topic "Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios"
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Escaith, Hubert, and Sangeeta Khorana. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Merchandise Trade in Commonwealth Countries. Commonwealth Secretariat, 2021. https://doi.org/10.14217/comsec.334.
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This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted merchandise trade between and with Commonwealth countries. It uses bilateral trade data from Base Analytique du Commerce International (BACI) to (i) estimate trade losses, i.e. variations in intra- and extra-Commonwealth trade in goods from the pre-pandemic trend, and (ii) simulate the impact of the pandemic on potential trade flows of Commonwealth countries under three scenarios: Consensus, Pessimistic and Optimistic. The scenarios are based on macroeconomic forecasts released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the third and fourth quarters of 2020. The simulation results suggest that Commonwealth trade will be negatively affected, with developed Commonwealth countries being impacted more than developing countries. They also show that the adverse effects on trade will depend on the duration and severity of the disease. The analysis demonstrates the interconnected and fragile nature of the economies and highlights the need for a coordinated response for recovery.
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Moras, Bruno Cesar Krause, Xiaowei Chen, Kenny Chandra Wijaya, Satish Ukkusuri, Samuel Labi, and Konstantina Gkritza. Electric Vehicles: Public Perceptions, Expectations, and Willingness-to-Pay. Purdue University, 2025. https://doi.org/10.5703/1288284317766.
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The primary objective of this project was to understand Indiana resident’s perspectives on electric vehicles (EVs), including adoption incentives and barriers, awareness of adoption incentives, charging preferences, and general travel patterns. A secondary objective was to establish a framework for identifying EV users, detailing their trips, and generating predictions for EV adoption and usage. To achieve these objectives, a stated preference survey was conducted with 1,217 Indiana residents. Two datasets containing travel behavior data were incorporated to generate synthetic data. The survey results revealed that Indiana EV users are typically middle-aged males living and working in urban areas. EV users tend to drive more frequently than non-EV users and prefer owning EVs over leasing them. They consider home charging as a vital component of EV usage. Non-EV users identified purchase price and charging issues as the main barriers to adoption and are generally unaware of charging incentives. They are also less inclined to use public charging facilities due to their perceived unreliability. EV trips are usually short distance. The generated synthetic dataset aligned with real-world data, predicting future EV demand for the next 8 years. Under an optimistic scenario, the number of EVs could increase by 18 times above the 2023 levels. Under a pessimistic scenario, it could double. This project supports INDOT, and other stakeholders prepare for the increased EV usage resulting from the deployment of charging stations. To foster EV adoption, it is recommended to better promote EV incentives, develop workforce programs focused on used EVs, and provide segmented education about public charging infrastructure.
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Davis, Angela K., Jeremy M. Piger, and Lisa M. Sedor. Beyond the Numbers: An Analysis of Optimistic and Pessimistic Language in Earnings Press Releases. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2006.005.
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Xu, Xun, Shiqi Ou, Tianduo Peng, et al. The Potential Role of Truck-Hailing and Operational Efficiency Improvement in Decarbonizing China’s Medium- and Heavy-Duty Road Freight Transport. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, 2025. https://doi.org/10.30573/ks--2025-dp04.
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Truck-hailing is a relatively new Uber-like business model that connects road freight carriers with shippers via mobile apps. First appeared around 2013, it has achieved fast market uptake in China, involving almost 8 million commercial trucks annually by the end of 2023. With China being one of the world’s largest road transport carbon emitters, it is crucial to understand the potential climate implications of this emergent trend. Here we utilize a large national proprietary truck-hailing sample and a transport-energy-emission model to explore the potential role of truck-hailing and logistics improvement under multiple scenarios. We found that under optimistic scenarios, logistics improvements as a potential result of high market penetration of truck-hailing services could significantly reduce road freight emissions in China, and there could be potential synergies between logistics improvements and technological advancement. We also found that operational performance limitations (range and capacity) of zero-emission vehicles could have moderate emission impacts.
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Rantanen, Mika, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Sanna Luhtala, et al. Ilmastonmuutos pääkaupunkiseudulla. Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.35614/isbn.9789523361737.
Full textAbstract:
Greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity have already warmed the climate of Earth by more than one degree. Significant changes have been observed e.g. in the intensity of heatwaves and heavy rainfall. Future climate change depends on human emissions, but it is likely that the global mean temperature still rises by another 1–2 degrees by the end of this century. The ongoing global warming is already visible in the climate of the capital region. Many of the observed changes are consistent with what human-caused intensification of the greenhouse effect will bring. During the past 60 years, the average temperatures have risen in all seasons, but the strongest warming has been observed in winter. Precipitation has increased in the winter season, but no statistically significant trends in precipitation can be observed in other seasons. In addition to the average climatic conditions, heatwaves have intensified with a stronger increase in the inland regions than on the coast. In this report, the latest climate change projections based on CMIP6 climate models and SSP greenhouse gas scenarios used in the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report are presented. According to the moderate SSP2-4.5 emission scenario, the average temperatures are predicted to rise in the capital region by 2.5–3 degrees in all months from the period 1981–2010 by the period 2040–2069. The warming is slightly weaker than in Finland on average, and the changes are somewhat larger in winter than in summer. A milder winter climate results in a further decrease in snow and ice cover. The rising temperatures in summer bring stronger heatwaves, heavy rainfalls and prolonged periods of droughts. There are no clear signs of change in the windiness, and thus winter storms are not predicted to be notably stronger in the future than they are now. Instead, the amount of precipitation induced by winter cyclones increases and comes more often as rain than snow. The sea level is not projected to rise much by the mid-century, but by the end of the century it is estimated to rise by about 25 cm from its current level. Even according to the most optimistic emission scenario, the climate in the capital region would warm by more than one degree by the 2080s. The climate change by the end of the century experienced by future generations is highly dependent on human emissions, and one must be ready to prepare for some degree of change. On the other hand, the climate in the capital region is subject to significant natural variability, and therefore cold periods of weather may occur also in the future.