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Hendrawan, Riko, and Ariful Ulya. "Do We Believe In Value? : Valuing Toll Road Sub Sector Companies Listed On Idx." Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia 23, no. 1 (2023): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.25124/jmi.v23i1.4011.
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The purpose of this to examining the intrinsic value of the shares of toll road operator companies in IDX in 2021. This research uses data from 2016 to 2020 to calculate the historical performance of each company and is projected from 2021 to 2025. We used pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenario. The method used is DCF method with FCFF approach and the calculation of the Relative Valuation method using PER and PBV approaches. The results based on the DCF-FCFF method showed that JSMR was overvalued for the pessimistic scenario and undervalued for the moderate and optimistic scenarios, while the calculation using the RV-PER method on JSMR showed that it was undervalued in the pessimistic and moderate scenarios and overvalued in the optimistic scenario. Also, based on the RV-PBV method, it showed undervalued in all scenarios. The DCF-FCFF results of CMNP issuers were undervalued in all scenarios, the RV-PER method was overvalued in all scenarios, and the RV-PBV were undervalued in all scenarios. Finally, META issuers were undervalued in the pessimistic scenario, and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios. RV-PER CMNP had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios, and the RV-PBV had undervalued results in the pessimistic scenario and overvalued in the moderate and optimistic scenarios.
 Keywords : DCF, FCFF, PBV, PER
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Ratuinsani, Tati Mushalihati, Haris Muhammadun, and Laksono Djoko Nugroho. "INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATU ULO FISHING PORT BASED ON FINANCIAL ASPECTS AND SENSITIVITY ASPECTS." International Journal on Advanced Technology, Engineering, and Information System (IJATEIS) 3, no. 1 (2024): 167–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.55047/ijateis.v3i1.1019.
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Watu Ulo Beach serves as a vital hub for fishing communities, supplying resources for sea fishing and serving as a landing point for catches. The local government plans to construct a fishing port at Watu Ulo to enhance facilities for fishermen. This study assesses the financial feasibility and sensitivity of investing in the port's construction, considering three income scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. Financial analysis using NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP methods deems the project feasible for moderate and optimistic scenarios, but not for the pessimistic scenario due to IRR (6.15%) < MARR (7.72%). Sensitivity analysis reveals that revenue sensitivity is critical for all scenarios, with the investment becoming unfeasible if revenue falls below certain thresholds: -13.67% for pessimistic, -39.96% for moderate, and -40.75% for optimistic scenarios. Operating cost sensitivity is also crucial, rendering the investment unfeasible if costs deviate beyond specific thresholds: -15.96% for pessimistic, +22.67% for moderate, and 25.59% for optimistic scenarios.
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VESA, Lidia. "THE FUZZY OPTIMISTIC-REASONABLE-PESSIMISTIC INVENTORY MODEL." Annals of the University of Oradea. Economic Sciences 31, no. 31(1) (2022): 259–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.47535/1991auoes31(1)025.
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In inventory and production decision problems, decision makers are interested to identify the optimal inventory and production level. In a certain decision environment, the optimal inventory level could be determined through traditional inventory methods and the optimal ptoduction level could be determined through linear programming algorithms. In an uncertain decision environment, the traditional methods and algorithms can not provide efficient and relevant solutions for these levels, due to the vague and changing parameters. In this case it is neccesary to develop new methods and models that can deal with vague variables and provide optimal levels. In this paper, the optimal inventory and production levels are determined through a single model that uses fuzzy linear programming. This new model is Fuzzy Optimistic-Reasonable-Pessimistic Inventory Model. It has three scenario: optimistic, reasonable and pessimistic, that are defined through triangular fuzzy numbers. In this way, decision makers can deal with vague parameters. These scenarios help managers to divide the Fuzzy ORP Model into three sub-models, that can be easily solved through traditional Simplex Algorithms. Each sub-model provides a crisp solution for each scenario. The solutions forms the final fuzzy optimal solution. The Fuzzy PRO Inventory Model helps managers to identify three optimal levels and to rank them according to their evaluations. This is useful, also, in predictions, where the decision makers should predict different scenarios for the production process. The limit of this model is the definition of the variables and scenarios. This model consider that all values for all variables and coefficients have the same definition: the inferior limit is related to the optimistic sceanrio, the peak is represents the reasonable limit and the superior limit is related to the pessimistic scenario. In real problem, the decision variables could have different definition than coefficients. The inferior limit of the cost is related to the optimistic scenario, but the superior limit of the production level can be related to the optimistic scenario. There are different representations for the scenarios.
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Alsubhi, Yazeed, Salman Qureshi, and Muhammad Haroon Siddiqui. "A New Risk-Based Method in Decision Making to Create Dust Sources Maps: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia." Remote Sensing 15, no. 21 (2023): 5193. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15215193.
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Dust storms are one of the major causes of the destruction of natural ecosystems and human infrastructure worldwide. Therefore, the identification and mapping of susceptible regions to dust storm formation (SRDSFs) is of great importance. Determining SRDSFs by considering the concept of risk in the decision-making process and the kind of manager’s attitude and planning can be very valuable in dedicating financial resources and time to identifying and controlling the negative impacts of SRDSFs. The purpose of this study was to present a new risk-based method in decision making to create SRDSF maps of pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. To achieve the purpose of this research, effective criteria obtained from various sources were used, including simulated surface data, satellite products, and soil data of Saudi Arabia. These effective criteria included vegetation cover, soil moisture, soil erodibility, wind speed, precipitation, and absolute air humidity. For this purpose, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was employed to generate existing SRDSF maps in different scenarios. The results showed that the wind speed and precipitation criteria had the highest and lowest impact in identifying dust centers, respectively. The areas identified as SRDSFs in very pessimistic, pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 85,950, 168,275, 255,225, 410,000, and 596,500 km2, respectively. The overall accuracy of very pessimistic, pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 84.1, 83.3, 81.6, 78.2, and 73.2%, respectively. The very pessimistic scenario can identify the SRDSFs in the study area with higher accuracy. The overall accuracy of the results of these scenarios compared to the dust sources obtained from the previous studies were 92.7, 94.2, 95.1, 88.4, and 79.7% respectively. The dust sources identified in the previous studies have a higher agreement with the results of the neutral scenario. The proposed method has high flexibility in producing a wide range of SRDSF maps in very pessimistic to very optimistic scenarios. The results of the pessimistic scenarios are suitable for risk-averse managers with limited financial resources and time, and the results of the optimistic scenarios are suitable for risk-taking managers with sufficient financial resources and time.
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Cavalcante Junior, Edmilson G., José F. de Medeiros, José Espínola Sobrinho, Vladimir B. Figueirêdo, João P. N. da Costa, and Wesley de O. Santos. "Development and water requirements of cowpea under climate change conditions in the Brazilian semi-arid region." Revista Brasileira de Engenharia Agrícola e Ambiental 20, no. 9 (2016): 783–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1807-1929/agriambi.v20n9p783-788.
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ABSTRACT This study aimed to determine the impacts that climate change may cause on the development and evapotranspiration of cowpea, in semi-arid climate region of Northeast Brazil. The study was conducted in the municipalities of Apodi, Ipanguaçu and Mossoró, in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. In order to evaluate the influence of climate change on crop water consumption, changes in air temperature and relative humidity were simulated using the PRECIS climate model. Two scenarios of emissions were evaluated based on the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: a pessimistic named A2 and an optimistic B2. The duration of the crop cycle showed an average reduction of 14 and 23 days for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Temperatures will be well above the limit tolerated by crop, which could have a negative impact on its development and yield. There will be a decrease in total evapotranspiration of 4.8%, considering the optimistic scenario, and 8.7% in the pessimistic scenario.
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Harjono, Sucipto, and Riko Hendrawan. "Valuation of Indonesian Cable Company with Free Cash Flow to Firm and Relative Valuation." Journal of Social Research 2, no. 10 (2023): 3671–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.55324/josr.v2i10.1433.
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During 2014 - 2018, cable companies in Indonesia showed an 8.52% average annual revenue growth. Unfortunately, analysts are responding to this growth negatively. Hence, In this study, we will conduct a valuation of six cable companies in Indonesia that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). We evaluate using two methods, namely Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) to get the Intrinsic Value of shares, Relative Valuation using Price to Book Value ( PBV), and Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) to validate the intrinsic value. The valuation results consider three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. In the optimistic scenario, the Intrinsic Value of JECC, KBLI, and VOKS shares are overvalued in all scenarios, while IKBI, KBLM, and SCCO are undervalued throughout the scenario. Validation using PBV for the optimistic scenario, all companies are considered overvalued. For the moderate scenario, the PBV of IKBI, KBLI, and VOKS are overvalued, while JECC, KBLM, and SCCO are undervalued. As for the pessimistic scenario, only the PBV of IKBI is overvalued. Validation using PER for the optimistic scenario, the PER of IKBI, JECC, KBLM, and SCCO are overvalued, while the PER of KBLI and VOKS are undervalued. For the moderate scenarios, the PER of IKBI and SCCO are overvalued, while the PER of JECC, KBLI, KBLM, and VOKS are undervalued. Whereas for the pessimistic scenario, only the PER of IKBI is overvalued, while JECC, KBLI, KBLM, SCCO, and VOKS are undervalued.
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Idayuwati Alaudin, Ros, Noriszura Ismail, and Zaidi Isa. "Projection of Retirement Adequacy using Wealth-Need Ratio: Optimistic and Pessimistic Scenarios." International Journal of Social Science and Humanity 6, no. 5 (2016): 332–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/ijssh.2016.v6.667.
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Rachman, Arif, and Dwi Fitrizal Salim. "Fair Value Assessment for Industrial Goods Stocks in Indonesia Post-Pandemic." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 12, no. 2 (2023): 98–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v12i2.2838.
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Many industrial sectors were severely affected during the pandemic, which lasted from 2020 to 2021. Such indicators can be observed in various companies implementing efficiency measures ranging from cost reduction unrelated to revenue growth to layoff policies. Despite being under pressure due to the pandemic, many industrial subsectors experienced significant growth in the second quarter of 2021, according to statistics from the Ministry of Industry. This study aims to determine the fair value of shares in Industrial Goods companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This approach uses a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology with free cash flow to the company and relative valuation through price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios. From 2017 to 2021, historical financial data was utilized to forecast future income and expenditure behavior in three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. The results showed that the DCF-FCFF technique underestimated IMPC, ARNA, and UNTR. MARK is overvalued in pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios, while MARK is undervalued in optimistic scenarios. HEXA is overvalued in the pessimistic scenario but undervalued in the moderate and optimistic scenario. ARNA and UNTR were overvalued in all relative assessment scenarios using the PER approach, but MARK and HEXA were undervalued. IMPC is undervalued in a gloomy scenario and overpriced in a moderate and optimistic scenario. In all cases, the PBV method overestimates IMPC, ARNA, MARK, HEXA, and UNTR. The study implies that investors should conduct thorough due diligence before making investment decisions, considering company-specific factors and broader market conditions. Companies in the Industrial Goods sector must be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics and prioritize long-term value creation to attract and maintain investor confidence.
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Ratuinsani, Tati Mushalihati, Haris Muhammadun, and Laksono Djoko Nugroho. "ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WATU ULO FISHERY PORT IN JEMBER DISTRICT REVIEWED FROM FINANCIAL ASPECTS AND SENSITIVITY ASPECTS." International Journal Science and Technology 3, no. 2 (2024): 48–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.56127/ijst.v3i2.1254.
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Watu Ulo Beach is a concentration of fishing communities as a place to fill supplies to catch fish at sea and as a landing place for fish catches. The local government intends to build a fishing port in Watu Ulo to improve facilities and infrastructure for fishermen in catching fish. This study aims to determine the feasibility of investment in the development of fishing ports in terms of financial aspects and sensitivity. The research method uses three scenarios for the value of income, namely the pessimistic scenario, moderate scenario, optimistic scenario. The results of the financial feasibility analysis using the NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP methods were declared feasible for the moderate scenario and optimistic scenario while the pessimistic scenario analysis results were not feasible because the IRR (6.15%) < MARR (7.72%) The results of the sensitivity analysis stated that with three scenarios on the Value of Revenue and Operating Costs obtained the results of Sensitivity The value of revenue for the pessimistic scenario is sensitive at -13.67% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes unfeasible. The revenue value for the moderate sensitive scenario is -39.96% if it is smaller than that the investment becomes unfeasible. The value of income for an optimistic scenario is sensitive at -40.75% if it is smaller than that, the investment becomes unfeasible. The revenue value for the optimistic scenario is sensitive at -40.75%, if it is smaller than that, the investment is not feasible. And if the Operating Cost Sensitivity for the pessimistic scenario is sensitive at -15.96%, if it is smaller than that, the investment is not feasible. Operating Costs for a moderate sensitive scenario at +22.67% if it is greater than that, the investment becomes unfeasible. Operating Costs for the optimistic scenario are sensitive at 25.59% if greater than that then the investment becomes unviable.
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Alisyukur, La Ode, Sunarto Sunarto, and Muh Aris Marfai. "SKENARIO PENGELOLAAN KEPESISIRAN BERKELANJUTAN KABUPATEN BUTON SELATAN, PROVINSI SULAWESI TENGGARA." ECOTROPHIC : Jurnal Ilmu Lingkungan (Journal of Environmental Science) 14, no. 2 (2020): 100. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/ejes.2020.v14.i02.p01.
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The coastal zone of South Buton Regency consists of unique ecosystems and abundant natural resources, but facing problems, mainly in terms of conflict between economic needs and ecological aspects. This study aims to set up scenarios for sustainable coastal zone management (SCZM) in South Buton Regency that are synergistic and benefit all stakeholders, without disregarding the principals of ecological conservation. Data were collected by interviews and field observations and were analyzed using prospective analysis method. Comprehensive analyisis were performed encompassing the effects and interactions of key components of the successfulness of the SCZM in South Buton based on the stakeholders desires. Three environmental management scenarios were assessed, namely: the conservative-pessimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are at minimum levels, the moderate-optimistic scenario, in which refinements for the key components are about 50%, and the progressive-optimistic scenario, in which all the key components are addressed for refinements. Results of the prospective analysis show that the moderate-optimistic scenario was the most appropriate scheme to be implemented for the sustainable coastal zone management in South Buton Regency, follows by progressive-optimistic and conservative-pessimistic scenarios, respectively.
 Keywords: Coastal zone; Key components; Prospective analysis; Environmental management
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Bozsik, Nándor, András Szeberényi, and Norbert Bozsik. "Impact of Climate Change on Electric Energy Production from Medium-Size Photovoltaic Module Systems Based on RCP Climate Scenarios." Energies 17, no. 16 (2024): 4009. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en17164009.
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The impact of climate change is increasingly evident in various domains today and is gaining prominence in scientific inquiries. Climate change also affects the utilisation of renewable energies. The article examines the effects of 21st-century climate change on the annual electric energy production of medium-sized photovoltaic module systems. The study bases its analysis on three possible scenarios: a pessimistic (RCP 8.5), a less pessimistic (RCP 4.5), and an optimistic (RCP 2.6) scenario. The applied Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to enhance comparability in analyses related to climate change. Compared to older linear models, an innovation utilises a more flexible and multidirectional model. One of the article’s key findings is that, for all three examined settlements, the annual yield of the studied photovoltaic systems will surpass the levels of the base year 2010 by the middle and end of the century. Another significant outcome is that, under the three scenarios analysed, the ratio of annual performance variation to annual global radiation variation shows substantial differences by the middle and end of the century compared to the 2010 baseline. In the optimistic scenario, this ratio exceeds 1, whereas in the pessimistic and less pessimistic scenarios, it falls below 1. This ratio does not directly inform about the annual production—which increases in all cases—but rather about the changes in efficiency. These efficiency changes are influenced by the rise in annual average temperatures and the fluctuation in sunny hours yearly. The third finding reveals that under the climate change pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the efficiency decrease is less adverse than in the less pessimistic scenario (RCP 4.5).
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Almeida, Débora de Melo, Sara Sebastiana Nogueira, Emanuel Araújo Silva, João Matheus Ferreira de Souza, Antonio Leandro Chaves Gurgel, and Alex Nascimento de Sousa. "Climate change is expected to reduce the potential distribution of Ceiba glaziovii in Caatinga, the largest area of dry tropical forest in South America." Bioscience Journal 40 (October 30, 2024): e40051. http://dx.doi.org/10.14393/bj-v40n0a2024-72663.
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Ecological niche modeling is a widely used tool to predict species distribution considering current, past, or future climate change scenarios across different geographic areas. Modeling scenarios allow researchers to assess the impacts of climate change on species distribution and identify priority areas for conservation. This study aimed to model the current and future potential distribution of Ceiba glaziovii under different climate change scenarios in Brazil. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to correlate species occurrence points with bioclimatic variables in current and future climate scenarios. Four General Circulation Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 were employed: BCC-CSM2-MR, CNRM-CM6-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MIROC6, considering optimistic and pessimistic projections. The contribution of variables and model accuracy were assessed using the Jackknife statistical test and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) parameter. AUC values for current and future scenarios demonstrated high accuracy. The bioclimatic variables of precipitation and temperature were the main contributors to determining areas with higher habitat suitability. In the future climate scenario, there was a reduction in areas with good climatic suitability for all four GCMs, considering optimistic and pessimistic projections. Among the areas with high habitat suitability, the IPSL-CM6A-1 model in the optimistic projection showed the smallest reduction, while in the pessimistic scenario, all areas with high suitability disappeared. The species' climatic niche is expected to decrease under all tested climate change scenarios. The central areas of the Caatinga and its transition zones exhibit the highest climatic suitability in current and future scenarios and should be prioritized for the species' conservation.
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Moradi, Bahare, Rojin Akbari, Seyedeh Reyhaneh Taghavi, et al. "A Scenario-Based Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision-Making System for Urban Environment Quality Assessment: Case Study of Tehran." Land 12, no. 9 (2023): 1659. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land12091659.
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Spatial evaluation of urban environment quality (UEQ) is a key prerequisite in urban planning and development. The main goal of this study is to present a scenario-based spatial multi-criteria decision-making system for evaluating UEQ. Therefore, stakeholder involvement was conducted and eight environmental criteria and six spatial-functional criteria were identified for five districts of Tehran. The weight of the effective criteria was calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. Then, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was used to prepare UEQ maps in different scenarios, including very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic. Finally, the spatial distribution of the district population in different classes of UEQ was evaluated. Among the spatial-functional and environmental criteria, the sub-criteria of population density and air pollution, respectively, had the greatest impact on UEQ. In very pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios, approximately 76.7, 51.8, 36.4, 23.7, and 9.8 km2 of the studied area had unsuitable UEQ conditions, respectively. In the very pessimistic scenario, about 37,000 and 1,500,000 people lived in areas with suitable and unsuitable UEQ conditions, respectively. In the very optimistic scenario, the population increased to over 917,000 in areas with suitable UEQ and decreased to 336,000 in those with unsuitable UEQ conditions in terms of both environmental and spatial-functional criteria. The research results showed that a high percentage of the population in the study area live under unsuitable UEQ conditions, which indicates the need for attention to improving the current UEQ conditions. The proposed approach is timely to gain a better understanding of the adverse impact of climate change on human well-being in marginal societies and how climate-resilient urban planning can play a significant role.
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Colombo, AF, and CA Joly. "Brazilian Atlantic Forest lato sensu: the most ancient Brazilian forest, and a biodiversity hotspot, is highly threatened by climate change." Brazilian Journal of Biology 70, no. 3 suppl (2010): 697–708. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1519-69842010000400002.
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After 500 years of exploitation and destruction, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has been reduced to less the 8% of its original cover, and climate change may pose a new threat to the remnants of this biodiversity hotspot. In this study we used modelling techniques to determine present and future geographical distribution of 38 species of trees that are typical of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica), considering two global warming scenarios. The optimistic scenario, based in a 0.5% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, predicts an increase of up to 2 °C in the Earth's average temperature; in the pessimistic scenario, based on a 1% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, temperature increase may reach 4 °C. Using these parameters, the occurrence points of the studied species registered in literature, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Predictions/GARP and Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions/MaxEnt we developed models of present and future possible occurrence of each species, considering Earth's mean temperature by 2050 with the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios of CO2 emission. The results obtained show an alarming reduction in the area of possible occurrence of the species studied, as well as a shift towards southern areas of Brazil. Using GARP, on average, in the optimistic scenario this reduction is of 25% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 50%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction in their possible area of occurrence are: Euterpe edulis, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis and Vochysia magnifica. Using MaxEnt, on average, in the optimistic scenario the reduction will be of 20% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 30%, and the species that will suffer the worst reduction are: Hyeronima alchorneoides, Schefflera angustissima, Andira fraxinifolia and the species of Myrtaceae studied.
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Wibowo, Yuli, Siswoyo Soekarno, Andi Eko Wiyono, Ajeng Afriska Lailatul Fajriyah, and Eva Yulia Windiari. "Analisis prospektif pengembangan agrotechnopreneurship berbasis potensi sektor pertanian di Kabupaten Jember [Prospective analysis of potential-based agrotechnopreneurship development in the agricultural sector in Jember Regency]." Jurnal Teknologi & Industri Hasil Pertanian 29, no. 1 (2023): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.23960/jtihp.v29i1.1-13.
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The pandemic several years ago has impacted employment problems with the increase in the number of unemployed in Jember Regency. One effort can be made to develop agrotechnopreneurship as a community business. This study aims to analyze the prospects for developing agrotechnopreneurship by utilizing the potential of the agricultural sector in Jember Regency. The analysis focused on potential agrotechnopreneurship products developed in Jember Regency today: mocaf, chili sauce, coconut briquettes, shredded catfish, and cow's milk kefir. This research uses a prospective analysis method structured based on states that may occur in the future. The results showed several scenarios for developing potential agrotechnopreneurship in Jember Regency, generally including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The development of agrotechnopreneurship in chili sauce, coconut briquettes, shredded catfish, and cow's milk kefir has an optimistic scenario, indicating a promising potential for future growth. This optimistic scenario can be realized if the key factors in the development of agrotechnopreneurship can be improved as expected. Meanwhile, the development of mocaf agrotechnopreneurship has a pessimistic scenario. Keywords: agrotechnopreneurship, Jember Regency, prospective analysis, the agricultural sector
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Oliveira, Davi Raftopoulos, Carlos Henrique Souto Azevedo, Thaís Ribeiro Costa, and André Rodrigo Rech. "How might climate change affect the distribution of velame Croton heliotropiifolius?" Revista Árvore 48 (August 23, 2024): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.53661/1806-9088202448263766.
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Velame, Croton heliotropiifolius, is an important plant for the production of special honeys in the Brazilian semi-arid region. However, the distribution of many plant species such as velame might be affected by climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the distribution of C. heliotropiifolius in Brazil under different climate change scenarios using predictive species distribution modeling. We made estimates for the years 2050 and 2070, in pessimistic and optimistic climate change scenarios using climate data from worldclim.org and species occurrence records from specieslink.net and gbif.org. Using the MaxEnt algorithm and the wallace package, we conducted predictive distribution modeling with occurrence and climate data associated with GIS. We divided areas according to their suitability for the occurrence of velame - inadequate, low suitability, medium suitability and high suitability. We then compared the predicted values with present data. In all future scenarios, the areas of low and medium suitability grew by more than 100% compared to the present. The areas of high suitability, on the other hand, undergo a slight reduction in the optimistic scenarios of 2050 and 2070, and in the pessimistic scenario for 2050. However, the pessimistic scenario for 2070 indicates a 19.6% increase in area compared to the present. This shows that in the pessimistic scenario for climate change, occurrence area under optimal conditions would shrink in 2050 and then expand in 2070. Although the results may sound promising for this species, they also indicate an expansion of the semi-arid climate, which may not necessarily benefit honey production.
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Coletti, Giulianella, Davide Petturiti, and Barbara Vantaggi. "Models for pessimistic or optimistic decisions under different uncertain scenarios." International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 105 (February 2019): 305–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijar.2018.12.005.
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Wibowo, Satrio Mukti, Dedi Budiman Hakim, Baba Barus, and Akhmad Fauzi. "Estimation of Energy Demand in Indonesia using Artificial Neural Network." International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy 12, no. 6 (2022): 261–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11390.
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Although Indonesia has many variations in energy types, Indonesia is currently a Net Oil Importer Country. Therefore, accurate energy demand estimation is very important for energy policy making in Indonesia. This study proposes a neural network model to efficiently, precisely and validly estimate energy demand for Indonesia. This model has four independent variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), population, imports, and exports. Data obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia and The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Energy estimation is using a pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenario that estimates of energy demand in the next 10 years using artificial neural networks shows that energy demand in Indonesia continues to increase every year, both in pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios.
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Magalhães, Jr. J. M., and Alessandro V. M. Oliveira. "Um estudo do transporte coletivo urbano de fortaleza - previsão de demanda para 2015." Revista de Engenharia e Tecnologia 5, no. 2 (2013): 44–52. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10675657.
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This article aims to present a study of urban transportation in the city of Fortaleza-Ceará, showing a forecast of passengers for 2015. This prediction was made for two different scenarios, one optimistic and other pessimistic. The methodology used to calculate the forecast demand for passenger transportation was based on econometric modeling of demand. The mathematical model was obtained from the following independent variables: bus fare, national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), kilometers traveled by the fleet, and a binary variable to represent the effects of the employees strike in 2008 and 2010. The size of the urban road network and the binary variable strike proved to be important factors in the model of demand forecast. In 2015, the demand for urban transportation should reach 350 millions passengers/year, for the optimistic scenario, and 330 million passenger/year for the pessimistic scenario.
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Newby-Clark, Ian R., Michael Ross, Roger Buehler, Derek J. Koehler, and Dale Griffin. "People focus on optimistic scenarios and disregard pessimistic scenarios while predicting task completion times." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 6, no. 3 (2000): 171–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/1076-898x.6.3.171.
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Budiharto, Punto, and Tody Amanah. "KAJIAN FINANSIAL PENGADAAN PERALATAN PENGUKUR KETIDAKRATAAN JALAN LASER PROFILEMETER KELAS I HAWKEYE 2000 DI LINGKUNGAN BALAI PELAKSANAAN JALAN NASIONAL BENGKULU." Bearing : Jurnal Penelitian dan Kajian Teknik Sipil 8, no. 1 (2023): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.32502/jbearing.v8i1.6263.
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Balai Pelaksanaan Jalan Nasional (BPJN) Bengkulu was born based on PUPR Regulation Number. 26 of2020. The Function is the implementation of feasibility studies, surveys, investigation, and evaluation ofplanning for the technical field of road and bridge including road safety. The Important type of survey arelongitudinal profile survey International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). TheMethod is to examined secondary data obtained from literature review and analyzed financial data (NetPresent Value, Benefit Cost Ratio, and Payback Period. The author builds four scenarios (pessimistic,medium, optimistic, and do nothing). The Benefit Cost Ratio for the scenario 1 (pessimist) is 0.33, thescenario 2 (medium) is 1.54, the scenario 3 (optimistic) is 2.82, and the scenario 4 (do-nothing) is N/A.Value of Payback Period for the scenario 2 (medium) is 5.62 years, and the scenario 3 (optimistic) is 2.79years. Based on the analysis, the decision to purchase a Hawkeye 2000 digital laser profilemeter withinBPJN Bengkulu is financially feasible as long as the hawkeye used not only for Internal, but as a source ofPNBP from client like private sector or provincial government, and distric or city governments in BengkuluProvince.
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Guliyeva, Shafa ,., and Reyhan Azizova. "Methodology for Assessing and Predicting the Rate of Development of Education in the Republic of Azerbaijan." WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT 18 (July 8, 2022): 962–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.37394/232015.2022.18.92.
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The article developed a methodology for assessing the rates of development of education and their forecasting in the Republic of Azerbaijan, which allows considering factors with a heterogeneous metric. For this, an index analysis of thirty-five indicators was carried out, divided into seven groups depending on the level of education, an integral indicator characterizing their changes was calculated, and the pace of development of the industry in the Republic of Azerbaijan was determined. Further, using the Excel program, a forecast of changes in the number of students in the Republic of Azerbaijan until 2023 is presented according to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. Studies have shown that optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are more likely to be realized.
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Коток, Н. Ю. "Application of the probabilistic approach in strategic planning of Russia's food security." Экономика и предпринимательство, no. 10(135) (January 10, 2022): 124–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.34925/eip.2021.135.10.021.
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Стратегические ориентиры обеспечения продовольственной безопасности России в части зерновой подотрасли, определённые в рамках оптимистического и пессимистического сценариев, предлагается дополнить вероятностным подходом, базирующемся на различных сочетаниях весов оптимистического и пессимистического сценариев. За счёт этого будет дана более адекватная оценка будущему развитию зерновой подотрасли, продовольственной безопасности Российской Федерации. The strategic guidelines for ensuring Russia's food security in terms of the grain sub-sector, defined within the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, are proposed to be supplemented with a probabilistic approach based on various combinations of the weights of the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Due to this, a more adequate assessment will be given to the future development of the grain sub-sector, food security of the Russian Federation.
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Bolotin, Sergey, Aldin Dadar, and Irina Ptuhina. "Construction Work Tasks Duration: Pessimistic Scenarios Based on PERT Method." Advanced Materials Research 945-949 (June 2014): 3026–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.945-949.3026.
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The article deals with the practices of how to estimate pessimistic scenarios of construction tasks duration which are based on latent regularities of space-time and space-cost analogies. It is presented herein that planned values of tasks duration are sufficient to be used for optimistic scenarios development. But in case of pessimistic duration it is necessary to consider planned durations and starting points of work tasks, as well as such a discount rate which is used to estimate economic efficiency of an investment construction project under study.
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Y., Zhang, Campana P.E., Lundbland A., and Yan J. "Comparative study of hydrogen storage and battery storage in grid connected photovoltaic system: Storage sizing and rule-based operation." Applied Energy 201 (April 5, 2017): 397–411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.03.123.
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The paper studies grid-connected photovoltaic (PV)-hydrogen/battery systems. The storage component capacities and the rule-based operation strategy parameters are simultaneously optimized by the Genetic Algorithm. Three operation strategies for the hydrogen storage, namely conventional operation strategy, peak shaving strategy and hybrid operation strategy, are compared under two scenarios based on the pessimistic and optimistic costs. The results indicate that the hybrid operation strategy, which combines the conventional operation strategy and the peak shaving strategy, is advantageous in achieving higher Net Present Value (NPV) and Self Sufficiency Ratio (SSR). Hydrogen storage is further compared with battery storage. Under the pessimistic cost scenario, hydrogen storage results in poorer performance in both SSR and NPV. While under the optimistic cost scenario, hydrogen storage achieves higher NPV. Moreover, when taking into account the grid power fluctuation, hydrogen storage achieves better performance in all three optimization objectives, which are NPV, SSR and GI (Grid Indicator).
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Suryanto, Yustinus Ricky Hapsoro. "Planning scenarios for improving the performance of education personnel after COVID-19 at XYZ University." Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary Science 3, no. 4 (2024): 325–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.55324/ijoms.v3i4.787.
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In the post-Covid-19 pandemic period with such rapid changing dynamics, the role of education personnel in the university environment is increasingly crucial to support the development and improvement of education quality. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze internal and external factors that affect the performance of XYZ University education personnel and determine scenario planning to improve the performance. The results of this research show that there are four scenarios that can occur based on the planning scenario matrix, namely scenarios in optimistic, semioptimistic, semi-pessimistic and pessimiistic conditions. It can be concluded that the current condition of the condition of organizational aspects is in an optimistic scenario, in this case the organization facilitates and aspects of educational personnel that support efforts to improve performance, so that the formulation of strategies carried out by the company focuses on optimistic scenarios where the company can implement hybrid work methods supported by clear and well-socialized regulations to education staff and supported by optimizing the function of HRM applications and strengthening the ability of education staff to carry out their job responsibilities, especially online.
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Matricardi, Eraldo A. T., Adriano Saraiva Aguiar, Eder Pereira Miguel, Humberto Angelo, and Ricardo De Oliveira Gaspar. "MODELAGEM DO DESMATAMENTO NA REGIÃO DO MATOPIBA." Nativa 6, no. 2 (2018): 198. http://dx.doi.org/10.31413/nativa.v6i2.5092.
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A maior parte do desmatamento de vegetação nativa na região MATOPIBA (MAranhão, TOcantins, Piauí e BAhia) está relacionada à expansão das atividades de produção de commodities agrícola. O monitoramento do desmatamento com o uso de dados de sensoriamento remoto e técnicas de geoprocessamento, associados ao desenvolvimento de modelagem espacialmente explícita podem contribuir para melhor compreensão das variáveis relacionadas ao desmatamento, permitindo também a simulação de prováveis trajetórias futuras deste fenômeno. Na presente pesquisa, foram construídos e simulados três cenários (tendencial, otimista e pessimista) de desmatamento para a região MATOPIBA entre 2011 e 2050 com base no desmatamento observado em 2002, 2008 e 2010. Os resultados dos cenários simulados indicam um aumento de 10,3, 15,3 e 15,9 milhões de hectares de desmatamento de vegetação nativa entre 2011 e 2050 na área de estudo assumindo os cenários otimista, tendencial e pessimista, respectivamente. Isto aumentaria o desmatamento em 55%, 82% e 85% (cenários otimista, tendencial e pessimista, respectivamente) em relação ao total observado de áreas desmatadas até 2010. Os resultados desta pesquisa podem contribuir com os gestores e tomadores de decisão para a definição de estratégias para reduzir o desmatamento e para melhorar o desenvolvimento sustentado na região do MATOPIBA.Palavra-chave: Região do MATOPIBA, modelagem espacial, cenários de desmatamento. DEFORESTATION MODELING IN THE MATOPIBA REGION ABSTRACT:Most of deforestation of native vegetation in the MATOPIBA (MAranhão, TOcantins, PIauí, and BAhia) region is related to the expansion of the production activities of agricultural commodities.The deforestation monitoring using remotely sensed data and GIS techniques, associated with the development of spatially explicit modeling can contribute to better understanding the variables related to deforestation and allows the simulation of future trajectories of this phenomenon. In this research, we proposed and simulated deforestation scenarios (trend, optimistic and pessimistic) for the MATOPIBA region between 2011 and 2050 based on deforestation observed in 2002, 2008, and 2010. This study results indicate an increase of deforestation of 10.3, 15.3, and 10.9 million hectares between 2011 and 2050 assuming the optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. It would increase deforestation in 55%, 82%, and 85% (optimistic, business as usual, and pessimistic, respectively) when compared to the total observed deforestation by 2010. This research results may help decision and policy makers to improve strategies to reduce deforestation and improve sustainable development in the MATOPIBA region.Keywords: MATOPIBA region, spatial modeling, deforestation scenarios. DOI:
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Fatehi, Kamal. "Speculation about the Future of Capitalism." Mercados y Negocios, no. 44 (July 1, 2021): 5–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.32870/myn.v0i44.7645.
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The future is unknown. A discussion of possible future events cannot provide any evidence to support it. An argument without evidence is merely conjecture and speculation. However, in speculation, we can use existing and past patterns of events to suggest the direction of possible future affairs. This paper speculates about the future changes that capitalism may take. In so doing, it uses past and present developments in sciences and the changing values. It offers two possible scenarios. The first scenario is an optimistic one, and the second is not very optimistic. One could even say it is a pessimistic prediction.
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Kamyshnykova, Evelina. "MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE: CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM VS. HOPEFUL PESSIMISM." REPORTER OF THE PRIAZOVSKYI STATE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY Section: Economic sciences, no. 1(38) (May 25, 2023): 34–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.31498/2225-6725.1(38).2023.280731.
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How different variants of security risk shape the future of the Ukrainian economy? The war background with its built-in uncertainty factor makes the development of accurate forecasts more challenging. The paper proposes to solve the problem of short-term and medium-term forecast accuracy of macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine in the context of the war based on the use of a scenario approach. Four hypothetical scenarios regarding the development of socio-economic situation in Ukraine ranging from optimistic to pessimistic variants due to duration of large-scale war have been designed. Real GDP growth, net migration, volume of remittances and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic measurements that have been projected for 2023-2024 period. Research findings form the basis for shaping a clear strategy for the post-war recovery of Ukraine in the medium to long term as three out of four macroeconomic scenarios assume the end of hostilities within a period under forecast. The paper contributes to improved theoretical rationale for existing linkages between key macroeconomic indicators and uncertainty factor driven by military situation in economic projections. The implications of the research include the design of economic policy mix adequate for optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the development of the war in Ukraine.
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Mocholi-Arce, Manuel, Trinidad Gómez, Maria Molinos-Senante, Ramon Sala-Garrido, and Rafael Caballero. "Evaluating the Eco-Efficiency of Wastewater Treatment Plants: Comparison of Optimistic and Pessimistic Approaches." Sustainability 12, no. 24 (2020): 10580. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su122410580.
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The assessment of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance has gained the interest of water utilities and water regulators. Eco-efficiency has been identified as a powerful indicator, as it integrates economic and environmental variables into a single index. Most previous studies have employed traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the evaluation of WWTP eco-efficiency. However, DEA allows the selection of input and output weights for individual WWTPs for the calculation of eco-efficiency scores. To overcome this limitation, we employed the double-frontier and common set of weights methods to evaluate the eco-efficiency of a sample of 30 WWTPs in Spain. The WWTPs were ranked based on eco-efficiency scores derived under several scenarios including best- and worst-case scenarios; this approach to performance assessment is reliable and robust. Twenty-six of the 30 WWTPs were not classified as eco-efficient, even under the most favorable scenario, indicating that these facilities have substantial room for the reduction of costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The ranking of WWTPs varied according to the scenario used for evaluation, which has notable consequences when eco-efficiency scores are used for regulatory purposes. The findings of this study are relevant for water regulators and water utilities, as they demonstrate the importance of weight allocation for eco-efficiency score estimation.
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Ebrahimi Sirizi, Mohammad, Esmaeil Taghavi Zirvani, Abdulsalam Esmailzadeh, et al. "A Scenario-Based Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Allocation of Pistachio Processing Facilities: A Case Study of Zarand, Iran." Sustainability 15, no. 20 (2023): 15054. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su152015054.
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Site selection and allocation of manufacturing and processing facilities are essential to sustainable economic productivity of a given product while preserving soil, the environment, and biodiversity. An essential criterion when evaluating various approaches to model land suitability for pistachio processing facilities is their adaptability to accommodate diverse perspectives and circumstances of managers and decision makers. Incorporating the concept of risk into the decision-making process stands as a significant research gap in modeling land suitability for pistachio processing facilities. This study presents a scenario-based multi-criteria decision-making system for modeling the land suitability of pistachio processing facilities. The model was implemented based on a stakeholder analysis as well as inclusion of a set of influential criteria and restrictions for an Iranian case study, which is among the top three producers. The weight of each criterion was determined based on the best-worst method (BWM) after the stakeholder analysis. Then, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) model was used to prepare maps of spatial potential for building a pistachio processing factory in different decision-making scenarios, including very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic attitudes. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of very-high- and high-potential regions to changes in the weight of the effective criteria was evaluated and proved that the most important criteria were proximity to pistachio orchards, proximity to residential areas, proximity to the road network, and proximity to industrial areas. Overall, 327 km2 of the study area was classified as restricted, meaning that they are not suitable locations for pistachio processing. The average estimated potential values based on the proposed model for very pessimistic, pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic, and very optimistic scenarios were 0.19, 0.47, 0.63, 0.78, and 0.97, respectively. The very-high-potential class covered 0, 0.41, 8.25, 39.64, and 99.78 percent of the study area based on these scenarios, respectively. The area of suitable regions for investment decreased by increasing risk aversion in decision making. The model was more sensitive to changes in the weights of proximity to residential areas, proximity to pistachio orchards, and proximity to transportation hubs. The proposed approach and the achieved findings could be of broader use to respective stakeholders and investors. Given the suitability of arid regions for planting pistachio and its relatively high profitability, the local authorities and decision makers can promote further expansion of the orchards, which can lead to better welfare of farmers and reducing rural-urban migration in the region.
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Soelistyo, Alex, and Riko Hendrawan. "Can We Validate the Value? Valuing Automotive and Component Sub-Sector Companies Listed on the Indonesia STOCK Exchange during the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis." International Journal of Multidisciplinary: Applied Business and Education Research 3, no. 2 (2022): 231–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.11594/ijmaber.03.02.09.
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This study provides a comprehensive fundamental-based value analysis of firms using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation (RV) approaches. This study reveals how these approaches behave in valuing firms during a crisis such as the one caused by the current covid-19 pandemic and how to validate the results as well as correct them if the results was invalid. The object of the study is companies in the automotive and component sub-sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2020. The company's historical financial data between 2016 and 2020 are used to predict its financial behavior over the next five years under three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. From the study employing the DCF method, the following results were obtained: ASII and INDS stocks were overvalued in all scenarios, GJTL were undervalued in all scenarios, and SMSM were overvalued in pessimist and moderate scenarios while undervalued in optimist scenario. Correction upon intrinsic values of SMSM and ASII is required since the result from RV analysis imply that the DCF results of both companies are not entirely valid, which indicates that the pandemic crisis has significantly affected the value of both companies. Investment recommendations for both ASII and INDS were to sell the stocks while for both SMSM and GJTL were to buy the stocks.
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Soelistyo, Alex, and Riko Hendrawan. "Can We Validate the Value? Valuing Automotive and Component Sub-Sector Companies Listed on the Indonesia STOCK Exchange during the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis." International Journal of Multidisciplinary: Applied Business and Education Research 3, no. 2 (2022): 231–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.11594/jmaber.03.02.09.
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This study provides a comprehensive fundamental-based value analysis of firms using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Relative Valuation (RV) approaches. This study reveals how these approaches behave in valuing firms during a crisis such as the one caused by the current covid-19 pandemic and how to validate the results as well as correct them if the results was invalid. The object of the study is companies in the automotive and component sub-sector listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in 2020. The company's historical financial data between 2016 and 2020 are used to predict its financial behavior over the next five years under three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic. From the study employing the DCF method, the following results were obtained: ASII and INDS stocks were overvalued in all scenarios, GJTL were undervalued in all scenarios, and SMSM were overvalued in pessimist and moderate scenarios while undervalued in optimist scenario. Correction upon intrinsic values of SMSM and ASII is required since the result from RV analysis imply that the DCF results of both companies are not entirely valid, which indicates that the pandemic crisis has significantly affected the value of both companies. Investment recommendations for both ASII and INDS were to sell the stocks while for both SMSM and GJTL were to buy the stocks.
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Silva, Richeliel Albert Rodrigues, Luciano Farinha Watzlawick, Henrique Soares Koehler, Fábio De Almeida Vieira, Fernanda Moura Fonseca Lucas, and Kyvia Pontes Teixeira Das Chagas. "EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF CURITIBA PRISMATICA (D. LEGRAND) SALYWON & LANDRUM: AN ENDEMIC ARAUCARIA FOREST SPECIES." FLORESTA 51, no. 4 (2021): 954. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/rf.v51i4.74685.
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With the occurrence of intensive climate change, there is a risk of irreversible damage to global biodiversity, resulting in reduction of geographical distribution and species extinction. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current distribution and the future projection of the areas of occurrence of Curitiba prismatica. Current occurrence data accessed in the SpeciesLink database and scientific studies were collected, which were correlated with the bioclimatic data available in WorldClim, for the current and future periods (2070), in the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model. In the current scenario, a species presents suitability restricted to mixed ombrophilous forest (MOF), with limited distribution to the center-south of the state of Paraná and the north of the state of Santa Catarina. For the future, there were reductions in the areas of climatic susceptibility for the species, both in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the predictive reduction was found in the midwest region of Paraná, unlike the RCP 8.5 scenario, which showed a low reduction in this region. Therefore, in the future, areas with high suitability will tend to contract, but restricted to the regions of the first and second plateau of Paraná and the north of Santa Catarina. In this sense, these areas are indicated for commercial planting and in situ and ex situ conservation of the species.
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Chen, Yuche, Ruixiao Sun, and Xuanke Wu. "Estimating Bounds of Aerodynamic, Mass, and Auxiliary Load Impacts on Autonomous Vehicles: A Powertrain Simulation Approach." Sustainability 13, no. 22 (2021): 12405. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132212405.
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Vehicle automation requires new onboard sensors, communication equipment, and/or data processing units, and may encourage modifications to existing onboard components (such as the steering wheel). These changes impact the vehicle’s mass, auxiliary load, coefficient of drag, and frontal area, which then change vehicle performance. This paper uses the powertrain simulation model FASTSim to quantify the impact of autonomy-related design changes on a vehicle’s fuel consumption. Levels 0, 2, and 5 autonomous vehicles are modeled for two battery-electric vehicles (2017 Chevrolet Bolt and 2017 Nissan Leaf) and a gasoline powered vehicle (2017 Toyota Corolla). Additionally, a level 5 vehicle is divided into pessimistic and optimistic scenarios which assume different electronic equipment integration format. The results show that 4–8% reductions in energy economy can be achieved in a L5 optimistic scenario and an 10–15% increase in energy economy will be the result in a L5 pessimistic scenario. When looking at impacts on different power demand sources, inertial power is the major power demand in urban driving conditions and aerodynamic power demand is the major demand in highway driving conditions.
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Zwierzyński, Adam Jan, Jakub Ciążela, Piotr Boroń, and Weronika Binkowska. "Lunar Cold Microtraps as Future Source of Raw Materials—Business and Technological Perspective." Applied Sciences 13, no. 24 (2023): 13030. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app132413030.
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The article uses the Lunar QuickMap tool to analyze and select five highly promising cold microtraps on the Moon in terms of the size of the deposits they contain and their accessibility with the use of rovers and other wheeled vehicles. Since the thickness of the layer containing raw materials is subject to high uncertainty, three arbitrary scenarios for the value of this parameter were assumed: pessimistic (1 cm), nominal (5 cm), and optimistic (1 m). For the analyzed sites, a preliminary market valuation of the raw materials contained therein will be obtained at USD 74 billion; USD 370 billion; USD 7403 billion for the assumed pessimistic, normal, and optimistic scenarios, respectively. The article presents a business and technological perspective on the issue of space mining on the Moon. It is also a selected synthesis of the state of knowledge about space mining on the Moon.
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Seliutin, Viktor, Leonid Yatsun, and Oleksandr Olshanskiy. "SWOT-F-ANALYSIS OF RESTAURANT BUSINESS IN KHARKIV." Economic Analysis, no. 30(1, Part 1) (2020): 192–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2020.01.01.192.
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Introduction. The article deals with the evaluation of the Kharkiv restaurant industry as a fractal system by means of SWOT-f analysis. Modern ideas about socio-economic systems are based on a synergistic concept that is organically linked to fractal theory. By fractal structure, the restaurant industry is a seven-tier holarchical system that contains such determinants as the assortment and quality of the restaurant service, technology, management, marketing, changes, forms of clustering and competitiveness. The systematic nature of the restaurant industry implies a similar structure of external factors. One of the common methods of strategic evaluation is SWOT analysis. The proposed method of SWOT-f analysis is a modified tool for strategic analysis of sectoral and regional-sectoral systems, which are considered as fractal structures, which ensures the adequacy of their perception and accuracy of forecasting. Purpose of the article is to identify the main parameters of the modified SWOT-f-analysis as a strategic tool for evaluating the restaurant industry, assessing the strengths and weaknesses, as well as threats and opportunities for the development of the restaurant industry in Kharkiv as a fractal system in three scenarios: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic. Method. A modified SWOT-f analysis was used to evaluate the restaurant industry, which consists in structuring the factors of influence on the activity of the enterprise on fractal principles, and also assumes the application of three development scenarios: pessimistic, realistic and optimistic. Result. It is determined that SWOT-f-analysis is a more expedient tool of strategic analysis, since it contains all elements of classical SWOT-analysis; structured as a holarchical system, which gives it greater logic; built on evolutionary principles; has a more reasonable connection between internal structural elements and environmental factors; and also allows to define the limits of setting the goals of the enterprise development in pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios. The assessment of the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the threats and opportunities for the development of the restaurant industry allowed to identify a more logical and structured profile for each scenario.
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ЗАЙНУЛЛИН, С. Б., and М. В. ЧЕРНЯЕВ. "Prospects for the development of the Russian coal industry: pessimistic and optimistic scenarios." Scientific Journal ECONOMIC SYSTEMS 1, no. 181 (2023): 143–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.29030/2309-2076-2023-16-2-143-154.
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Угольная отрасль -одна из важнейших отраслей как в российской, так и в мировой экономике. Это вызвано тем, что уголь остается одним из существенных видов сырья для энергетики и многих других отраслей промышленности. На спрос на уголь оказывает огромное влияние целый набор факторов. Демографический -рост населения и урбанизация, технологические - развитие технологии добычи угля, экологические, климатические -стремление к зеленой повестке, декарбонизация, пандемия Ковид-19 и падение промышленного производства. Цель статьи -рассмотрение факторов, влияющих на угольный рынок, и оценка перспектив развития российской угольной промышленности. В статье рассмотрены данные ООН, прогнозы и оценки Международного энергетического агентства, оценки профильных компаний и специалистов в сфере угольной энергетики. По итогам анализа сделаны выводы, что последние несколько лет в связи с доминирующей в западных странах климатической, экологической политикой по декарбонизации, политикой по внедрению «зеленой» энергетики прогнозы развития угольного рынка носили пессимистический характер. Но рост цен на газ, связанный с антироссийской санкционной политикой, блокировкой Северного потока - 2, трудности с внедрением «зеленой» энергетики повышают спрос на уголь на мировом рынке, делают более вероятным оптимистический сценарий развития угольной отрасли.
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Majstorovic, Nemanja, Snezana Simic, Bojana Matejic, and Mladen Cudanov. "Assessment of required resources for implementation of national breast cancer screening program in Serbia." Srpski arhiv za celokupno lekarstvo 142, no. 1-2 (2014): 59–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/sarh1402059m.
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Introduction. High values of standardized mortality and morbidity rates of standardized cancer mortality in Serbia, especially colorectal, cervical and breast cancer led to creation of national programs for their early detection and engagement of the international support for their implementation. Objective. Assessment of required resources (time, personnel, financial) to implement the National program for screening of breast cancer in the Republic of Serbia. Methods. Three possible scenarios have been prepared (optimistic, realistic and pessimistic) based on the expected coverage by screening of women aged 45 to 69 years, and time, personnel and financial feasibility estimates were made for a two-year screening cycle. Results. Time aspect of feasibility even under conditions of ?relaxation? of the assumption on the number of working days during the year did not question feasibility of any of the scenarios. Personnel feasibility is only possible in the pessimistic scenario, while the financial feasibility only makes sense in optimistic scenario as the least unfavorable solution due to economies of scale. Conclusion. Establishment of the initial base of skilled radiologists and radiology technicians and the system for their continuous medical education as well as allocation of specific MoH budget line for screening program expenditures, along with donated mammographs and good organization and coordination, may provide unobstructed implementation of the National program for early detection of breast cancer in the Republic of Serbia.
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Zhou, Jing, Qianhong Tang, Yanan Zhao, Xiaokang Hu, Tao Wang, and Bingru Wang. "Driving Mechanisms and Changes in Dominant Forest Tree Taxa in Europe Under Climate Change." Forests 16, no. 6 (2025): 900. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16060900.
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Forest ecosystems are crucial for terrestrial ecosystem stability, particularly in carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and water conservation. With climate change exacerbating, understanding changes in suitable habitats for the main European tree taxa [Norway spruce (Picea abies), pedunculate oak (Quercus robur), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica)] and their drivers is critical for forest conservation in Europe. Here, we analyzed the factors driving the tree taxa distribution and suitable habitats under the current and two future scenarios, namely, optimistic and pessimistic. Based on a species distribution model, climatic, land use, and topographic factors were introduced as variables. This study determined that the main factors driving the tree taxa distributions were temperature, followed by land use. Under the future optimistic scenario, the suitable habitats change for the three tree taxa. Suitable habitats emerge in high-latitude regions and the northern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, suitable habitats are decreasing in Central Europe. Under the pessimistic scenario, more significant changes occurred in these regions. The total suitable habitat area for the three tree taxa did not change consistently under both scenarios. The suitable habitat area for Norway spruce increased, whereas that for pedunculate oak decreased. However, both regions with increasing or decreasing suitable habitats face the potential for forest succession, which will also affect the stability of forest ecosystem functions and should be a key focus.
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Плєтньов, Михайло Васильович, та Вікторія Володимирівна Вахлакова. "ПОПЕРЕДНЯ ОЦІНКА СПРОМОЖНОСТІ ГРОМАД ТА РАЙОНІВ ЛУГАНСЬКОЇ ОБЛАСТІ ПІСЛЯ ДЕОКУПАЦІЇ". TIME DESCRIPTION OF ECONOMIC REFORMS, № 4 (22 січня 2024): 13–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.32620/cher.2023.4.02.
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The large-scale aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 led to the fact that the entire Luhansk region is occupied, and the Donetsk region is occupied by half. However, the issue of assessing the capacity of communities and districts after de-occupation became relevant. This is due to the fact that the assessment is influenced by many factors, the main one of which is the population that will return to those territories after de-occupation. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the calculations of the preliminary assessment of the capacity of territorial communities and districts of the Luhansk region after deoccupation. Methods used in the research: comparative analysis, detailing and generalization, grouping. The hypothesis of the study was the assumption that after the deoccupation of Luhansk region, there will be no viable territorial communities due to the depopulation of these territories. Summary of the main material: Three criteria (indicators) were used for the preliminary assessment of the capacity of territorial communities and districts of Luhansk region after de-occupation: the number of people permanently living in the territory of a capable territorial community; the number of students; share of the working population. The scenarios of the decrease in the number of the population and, accordingly, the share of the population of working age after deoccupation have been calculated. The optimistic scenario is the option when more than 70% of the population will return, most of which are of working age (more than 70%), the most realistic scenario is the return of approximately 50% of the population (the share of the population of working age from 70% to 30%), and the pessimistic scenario , this is when less than 30% of the population will return, among which less than 30% are of working age. Based on the results of the calculations, the number of capable communities and districts after de-occupation was determined. The originality and practical significance of the research consists in determining the number of capable communities and districts under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Conclusions and prospects for further research. Based on the results of the evaluation, it was determined that under the optimistic scenario, 26 capable communities and 7 districts will remain in Luhansk region after de-occupation, and under the pessimistic scenario, 18 communities and 4 districts will remain. However, the real scenario is more likely, i.e. it is between optimistic and pessimistic. Further research lies in the plane of detailed analysis of the real scenario of the formation of capable communities and districts in the territory of Luhansk region after the de-occupation up to the borders in 1991
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Altamirano-Fernández, Alex, Alejandro Rojas-Palma, and Sergio Espinoza-Meza. "Optimal Management Strategies to Maximize Carbon Capture in Forest Plantations: A Case Study with Pinus radiata D. Don." Forests 14, no. 1 (2023): 82. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f14010082.
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Plantations with fast-growing species play a crucial role in reducing global warming and have great carbon capture potential. Therefore, determining optimal management strategies is a challenge in the management of forest plantations to achieve the maximum carbon capture rate. The objective of this work is to determine optimal rotation strategies that maximize carbon capture in forest plantations. By evaluating an ecological optimal control problem, this work presents a method that manages forest plantations by planning activities such as reforestation, felling, thinning, and fire prevention. The mathematical model is governed by three ordinary differential equations: live biomass, intrinsic growth, and burned area. The characterization of the optimal control problem using Pontryagin’s maximum principle is analyzed. The model solutions are approximated numerically by the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method. To verify the efficiency of the model, parameters for three scenarios were considered: a realistic one that represents current forestry activities based on previous studies for the exotic species Pinus radiata D. Don, another pessimistic, which considers significant losses in forest productivity; and a more optimistic scenario which assumes the creation of new forest areas that contribute with carbon capture to prevent the increase in global temperature. The model predicts a higher volume of biomass for the optimistic scenario, with the consequent higher carbon capture than in the other two scenarios. The optimal solution for the felling strategy suggests that, to increase carbon capture, the rotation age should be prolonged and the felling rate decreased. The model also confirms that reforestation should be carried out immediately after felling, applying maximum reforestation effort in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. On the other hand, the model indicates that the maximum prevention effort should be applied during the life cycle of the plantation, which should be proportional to the biomass volume. Finally, the optimal solution for the thinning strategy indicates that in all three scenarios, the maximum thinning effort should be applied until the time when the fire prevention strategy begins.
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Mitova, Diliana. "Scenarios for the development of the Organic farming sector in the light of the CAP 2023 – 2027." Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Management 68, no. 4 (2023): 62–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.61308/bucf3891.
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The research aims to make a scenario analysis that will show what changes, perspectives and trends would be expected in the development of organic farming (OF) in our country, related to the change of main factors, mechanisms and means of support in the policy and with the objectives of the EU Green Deal. The study of the scenarios in the organic farming sector, their evaluation and the measurement of the probability that each of the options will happen is indicative of the future development of this sector, of the opportunities and prospects for it. It follows a quantitative approach to measure the possible changes in the organic farming sector. It is based on and is part of the work on the research project “Perspectives for Bulgarian agriculture and rural areas in the context of the CAP 2021 – 2027 and the EU Recovery Plan”, developed by a team led by associate professor Dr. B. Ivanov, IAI, Agricultural Academy – Sofia in 2021 – 2022. The research is based on the methodology developed for the purposes of the above-mentioned project, using the relevant algorithm, and the main applied methods are comparative assessment, probabilistic study with covariances, descriptive analysis, indicator method, expert assessment and statistical methods for determining trends (Ivanov et al., 2023). When developing the forecast scenarios, to track the possible consequences and effects of assuming different options for the development of OF in our country, two groups of indicators have been used – result and derivative ones. The average scenario score was used as an indicator of how likely the different scenarios were to occur. The specific scenarios and the average scores are determined within limits, according to the standard error and confidence interval according to the methodology of the above-mentioned project. Although the overall probability of the proposed three scenarios (pessimistic, normal and optimistic), measured by the probability coefficient, is unsatisfactory – 0.43, as well as the average scores for the pessimistic and moderate scenarios, the average score for the optimistic scenario is considered satisfactory. From the presented assumptions, estimates and probability scenarios, it can be concluded that the assumed changes in the indicators for the development of organic agriculture lead to relatively close probabilities for the occurrence of the optimistic and moderate scenarios. However, the optimistic scenario has the highest percentage – 18%, followed by the moderate scenario – 16%. I.e. the probability that organic agriculture will develop by 2027 according to the optimistic scenario is the highest. The realization of such a scenario by 2027 would be positive for Bulgarian agriculture in general and for OF in particular. This coincides with the trends that have been noticed recently – there is an increased interest of society in consuming organic products; at the same time, a number of EC- documents set goals for increasing the areas managed by organic farming methods. The increased public interest and concern for the protection of the environment and the health of people and animals has provoked a number of measures in both EU and national policy related to the support of the sector of OF.
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Wibowo, Yuli, Nidya Shara Mahardika, and Lia Sumi Karmila. "PROSPEK PENGEMBANGAN MINAPOLITAN DI KABUPATEN SITUBONDO." JURNAL AGROTEKNOLOGI 14, no. 01 (2020): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/j-agt.v14i01.16598.
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The Government of Situbondo Regency has implemented an agropolitan program in its region since 2013 to develop the potential of fisheries and marine resources. However, the program has not been able to develop as expected and still lacks the impact. This study aimed to determine the prospects for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. The results of this study were expected to provide guidelines for the development of the Minapolitan program in Situbondo Regency. This study used a prospective analysis method. Method of minapolitan development strategy formulation used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This research produced scenarios that might occur in the future. These scenarios could serve as a guideline for the preparation of the minapolitan development strategy in Situbondo Regency. The results of the study showed that there were four scenarios will occur in the future, namely the optimistic developing scenario, the pessimistic developing scenario, there was still hope scenario and alert scenario. Based on discussions with experts, the most likely scenario to occur were an optimistic developing scenario and there was still hope scenario. Based on the scenarios that were most likely to occur, the strategy that can be applied for the development of Minapolitan in Situbondo Regency based on AHP method was to provide assistance and facilitate access to technology, markets, and capital.Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, minapolitan, prospective analysis
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MELO, TALYANA KADJA DE, JOSÉ ESPÍNOLA SOBRINHO, JOSÉ FRANSCIMAR DE MEDEIROS, VLADIMIR BATISTA FIGUEIREDO, JOSÉ SILEREUDO DA SILVA, and FRANCISCO VANIES DA SILVA SÁ. "IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN THE BRAZILIAN SEMIARID REGION ON WATERMELON CULTIVARS." Revista Caatinga 33, no. 3 (2020): 794–802. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1983-21252020v33n323rc.
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ABSTRACT The phenology and water demand of crops can be altered by climate change. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change (temperature and relative humidity) on the development and evapotranspiration (ETc) of watermelon cultivare (Citrullus lanatus Schrad) in irrigated plantations in the Brazilian semiarid region. The experiments were conducted at the Rafael Fernandes Experimental Farm, in the municipality of Mossoró, RN, Brazil. The first experiment was carried out from February to April 2006, evaluating the cultivar Mickylee. In the second experiment, carried out from September to November 2009, the cultivar Quetzali was used. Two climate change scenarios were evaluated based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report: an optimistic one named B2 and a pessimistic one named A2. It was found that climate change may cause reductions in crop vegetative cycle of 14.1 and 26.9% for the cultivar Mickylee and 7.9 and 11.1% for the cultivar Quetzali, for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively, compared to the current climate scenario. Future climate changes will increase the watermelon crop coefficient (Kc), for the conditions under which the present study was carried out, increasing the daily ETc the total ETc, mainly for the cultivar Mickylee. Future climate changes in air temperature and relative humidity will reach limits above those tolerated by the crop, which will lead to changes in the cultural practices and irrigation management.
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Levy, David T., Ron Borland, Eric N. Lindblom, et al. "Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes." Tobacco Control 27, no. 1 (2017): 18–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053759.
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IntroductionUS tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.MethodsA Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.FindingsCompared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.ConclusionsThe tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.
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Dmitriy, Demin, Schwickerath Horst, and Schwickerath Katharina. "Network planning of the publishing process for the issue of the magazine." Technology audit and production reserves 5, no. 4(55) (2020): 23–28. https://doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2020.214716.
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<em>The object of research is the publishing process for the magazine’s release</em><em>. One of the most problematic areas is the difficulty of competition between print publishers and media that provide information services on the web. Therefore, for publishers, it is especially important to ensure consistency of work within the entire publishing process based on its rational organization. In particular, the development of structural diagrams and relationships at different levels of preparation and implementation of publishing projects is relevant.</em> <em>Network planning methods are used in research.</em> <em>The obtained results suggest that the proposed structural scheme for managing the publishing process is successful. Due to the presence of the proposed links between the participants in the publishing process, the scheme provides the ability to plan each current issue of the magazine with a guarantee of the announced terms of the magazine's release.</em> <em>The influence of two scenarios – pessimistic and optimistic – on the deadline is analyzed. It has been established that the pessimistic forecast does not allow for the specified target date if it is 1 time per quarter. The optimistic forecast provides the possibility of a guaranteed quarterly publication of the magazine – the target date for all publishing processes before the start of the finished circulation is 89–92 days. In the case of an optimistic forecast, the network schedule for publishing the magazine showed that all works within the publishing process, before the distribution of the current issue's circulation, have a reserve of time. While in the implementation of the pessimistic scenario, only two works have a reserve of time – the design and approval of the design of the advertisement with the customer.</em> <em>The peculiarities of the proposed solutions are that the pessimism and optimism of the scenarios are determined in relation to those works for which everything depends only on the performer. In turn, these are exactly the works that do not require external approvals.</em>
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Chagas, Kyvia Pontes Teixeira das, Fernanda Moura Fonseca Lucas, and Fábio De Almeida Vieira. "PREDICTIVE MODELING OF Mimosa tenuiflora (WILLD) POIRET: HOW CAN CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT ITS POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION RANGE?" FLORESTA 50, no. 2 (2020): 1315. http://dx.doi.org/10.5380/rf.v50i2.62980.
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Studies that characterize the effects of climatic factors on the geographic distribution of arboreal individuals are of fundamental importance, especially for widely exploited species of wood potential, such as Mimosa tenuiflora (Willd) Poiret (jurema-preta). In this sense, the objective of this work was to predict the climatically adequate areas for the occurrence of Mimosa tenuiflora, present (1960-1990) and future (2070). We used the Maxent algorithm to relate the occurrence records of the species to the climatic variables. For the year 2070, we test two scenarios and three general atmospheric circulation models, HadGEM2-ES, GISS-E2-R and MIROC-ESM. Modeling for the present presented an AUC index (area under the curve) of 0.94 (± 0.02), indicating a good fit of the model used. For the future scenario, the AUC value ranged from 0.88 to 0.89 and 0.87 to 0.88 for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The highest percentage of contribution was to the annual precipitation variable. The areas of adequacy occupied the states of Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte in higher intensity and almost all of them. When compared to the present, the geographic territory with high suitability for the future presented a reduction from 28.7% to 53.7% in the optimistic scenario and 30.9% to 59.4% in the pessimistic scenario. The information obtained can be used as a subsidy for the establishment of commercial plantations, the definition of management and conservation strategies, and the creation of an in situ conservation bank for Mimosa tenuiflora species.
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Yuzaria, Dwi, Nuraini, Elfi Rahmi, and Muhammad Ikhsan Rias. "A System Dynamics Model for Developing an Agropolitan Area based on Laying Hens in Lima Puluh Kota Regency." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1097, no. 1 (2022): 012035. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1097/1/012035.
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Abstract The development of an agropolitan area based on laying hens in Lima Puluh Kota Regency faces many problems. One method that can be used to solve these complex problems is the systems approach. This study aimed to build a model for developing a sustainable agropolitan area based on integrated laying hens farming. The results of the system performance indicated that the current system is in a fairly sustainable position. The dynamics of time will make changes in system performance in the future. There are six factors that influence the interdependent system, namely carrying capacity, egg prices, farmer income, employment, infrastructure, and utilization of livestock waste. Based on the state of each factor, three scenarios were formulated for the development of a sustainable laying hens farming system in Lima Puluh Kota Regency: (1) conservative-pessimistic scenario, (2) moderate-optimistic scenario, and (3) progressive-optimistic scenario.
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Beisekova, Perizat, Assel Ilyas, Yelena Kaliyeva, Zhanar Kirbetova, and Meruert Baimoldayeva. "Development of a method for assessing the functioning of a grain product sub-complex using mathematical modeling." Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies 2, no. 13 (122) (2023): 92–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/1729-4061.2023.276433.
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The object of the study is the process of functioning of enterprises of the grain product subcomplex. In the course of the study, the problem of the growth rate and the peculiarities of the functioning of enterprises of the grain product subcomplex were solved. An assessment of the functioning of the grain product subcomplex was carried out Republic of Kazakhstan using mathematical modeling, for which a methodology has been developed that allows considering factors with a heterogeneous metric, which includes the following steps: 1) index analysis twenty-one indicators, divided into groups; 2) development of formulas for calculation and integral indicators characterizing their dynamics; 3) determining the pace of functioning of the grain product subcomplex for 2011–2021. Graphs were made and a forecast of the performance indicators of the subcomplex until 2024 is presented for one of each group with the maximum coefficient of determination R2. According to three scenarios: optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic. R2 is an indicator of the quality of forecasts: than the closer its value is to one, the higher the probability of execution. For eleven charts, the coefficient of determination is in the range from 0.9003 (pessimistic forecast for other industrial use of grain) to 0.9838 (optimistic forecast for the number of granaries). For ten, from 0.8025 to 0.8702, and for nine, from 0.705 to 0.7932. This means that the reliability of the calculations for twenty-nine forecast options is in the range from 70 to 98 %. This indicates fairly objective predictive values of the subcomplex performance indicators until 2024. Based on the results of the studies, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are more likely to be implemented.