Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Petroleum products Prices Software'

The purpose of this research is to study and improve decision accuracy in the real world. Spot price prediction of petroleum products, in a budgeting context, is the task chosen to study prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy of executives in a multinational oil company is examined. The Brunswik Lens Model framework is used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Predictions of the individuals, the composite group (mathematical average of the individuals), the interacting group, and the environmental model were compared. Predictions of the individuals were obtained through a laboratory experiment in which experts were used as subjects. The subjects were required to make spot price predictions for two petroleum products. Eight predictor variables that were actually used by the subjects in real-world predictions were elicited through an interview process. Data for a 15 month period were used to construct 31 cases for each of the two products. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by comparing predictions with the actual spot prices. Predictions of the composite group were obtained by averaging the predictions of the individuals. Interacting group predictions were obtained ex post from the company's records. The study found the interacting group to be the least accurate. The implication of this finding is that even though an interacting group may be desirable for information synthesis, evaluation, or working toward group consensus, it is undesirable if prediction accuracy is critical. The accuracy of the environmental model was found to be the highest. This suggests that apart from random error, misweighting of cues by individuals and groups affects prediction accuracy. Another implication of this study is that the environmental model can also be used as an additional input in the prediction process to improve accuracy.

Deregulation as an open market system is likely to be implemented in the Petroleum industry of South Africa. To secure the success of the retail petroleum industry by means of business and job opportunities one has to investigate the current evolution of the industry and what factors will have a measurable impact on the retail petroleum industry.

A flutuação do preço do petróleo e a sua subvenção ao praticada por alguns países, incluindo São Tomé e Príncipe, é um tema de grande relevância dada a enorme importância que o petróleo assume nas economias dos países que, tal como o nosso, não dispõem de recursos energéticos próprios (salvo a ´agua, o vento e o sol). A Empresa Nacional de Combustíveis e Òleo (ENCO, SARL), representa o monopólio de importação e venda dos produtos petrolíferos (gasolina, gasóleo, Jet-A1 e Petróleo) em São Tomé e Príncipe. A mesma é encarregada de elaborar a estrutura de preços dos produtos acima mencionados sempre que há uma importação. A elaboração desta estrutura de preços é baseadas nas leis e normas de importação e vendas de produtos petrolíferos vigentes no País, onde o preço de venda ao consumidor final ´e fixo causando com isto um diferencial de preço que será o nosso objecto de estudo. Pretendemos com esta dissertação identificar os beneficiários da política de fixação do preço dos produtos petrolíferos praticado pelo Estado santomense durante os anos de 2001 a 2017 e construir modelos estatísticos que permitam explicar a evolução desse diferencial e fazer uma previsão futura desse mesmo diferencial. No final apresentaremos as conclusões e, caso se justifique, algumas recomendações futuras; Abstract: STUDY OF THE IMPACTS OF FUEL PRICE FIXING POLICY IN São TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE The fluctuations in oil prices and its subsidy practiced by some countries, including S˜ao Tomé e Príncipe, is a subject of great importance given the enormous importance of oil in the economies of countries that, like ours, do not have their own energy resources (except water, wind and sun). The National Fuel and Oil Company (ENCO) represents the monopoly on the import and sale of petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, Jet-A1 and Petroleum) in S˜ao Tom´e e Pr´ıncipe, which is responsible for elaborating the price structure of the products mentioned above whenever there is an import. The elaboration is made based on the laws and norms of importation and sales of petroleum products in force in the Country, where the sale price to the final consumer is fixed causing with this a differential of price that will be our object of study. We intend with this dissertation to identify the beneficiaries of the petroleum products pricing policy practiced by the State of S˜ao Tomé e Príncipe during the years 2001 to 2017, and to construct statistical models that allow to explain the evolution of this differential and to make a future prediction of this same differential. In the final chapter, we will present the conclusions and, if appropriate, some future recommendations.

This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.

Bibliografia: p. 109-111<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Instituto Nacional de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.<br>Estudamos a precificação de opções exóticas nos mercados de petróleo e de seus derivados. Iniciamos com uma análise exploratória dos dados, revisitando suas propriedades estatísticas e fatos estilizados relacionados às volatilidades e correlações. Subsidiados pelos resultados de tal análise, apresentamos alguns dos principais modelos forward para commodities e um vasto conjunto de estruturas determinísticas de volatilidades, bem como os respectivos métodos de calibragem, para os quais executamos testes com dados reais. Para melhorar o desempenho de tais modelos na precificação do smile de volatilidade, reformulamos o modelo de volatilidade estocástica de Heston para lidar com uma ou múltiplas curvas forward, permitindo sua utilização na precificação de contratos definidos sobre múltiplas commodities. Calibramos e testamos tais modelos a partir de dados reais dos mercados de petróleo, gasolina e gás, e comprovamos a sua superioridade frente aos modelos de volatilidade determinística. Para subsidiar a precificação de opções exóticas e contratos OTC, revisitamos dos pontos de vista teórico e prático assuntos como simulação de Monte Carlo, soluções numéricas para SDEs e exercício americano. Finalmente, por meio de uma bateria de simulações numéricas, mostramos como os modelos podem ser utilizados na precificação de opções exóticas que tipicamente ocorrem nos mercados de commodities, como as calendar spread options, crack spread options e as opções asiáticas.<br>We study the pricing of exotic options in the oil and its derivatives markets. We begin with a exploratory analysis of the data, revisiting statistical properties and stylized facts related to the volatilities and correlations. Based on this results, we present some of the main commodity forward models and a wide range of deterministic volatility structures, as well as its calibration methods, for which we ran tests with real market data. To improve the performance of such models in pricing the volatility smile, we reformulate the Heston stochastic volatility model to cope with one or multiple forward curves together, allowing its use for the pricing of multicommodity based contracts. We calibrate and test such models for the oil, gasoline and natural gas markets, confirming their superiority against deterministic volatility models. To support the tasks of exotic options and OTC contracts pricing, we also revisit, from the theoretical and practical points of view, tools and issues such as Monte Carlo simulation, numerical solutions to SDEs and American exercise. Finally, through a battery of numerical simulations, we show how the presented models can be used to price typical exotic options occurring in commodity markets, such as calendar spread options, crack spread options and Asian options.

CAPES<br>O segmento downstream da cadeia de suprimentos da indústria brasileira de petróleo é composta por bases de produção (e.g. refinarias), armazenamento (e.g. terminais) e consumo (e.g. mercados consumidores) e modais de transportes (e.g. oleodutos, navios, caminhões e trens). O planejamento da transferência de derivados de petróleo nesta rede multimodal é um problema complexo e atualmente é realizado para um horizonte de três meses com base na experiência de profissionais e sem auxílio de um sistema computacional de apoio à decisão. Basicamente, o problema pode ser visto como uma negociação para alocação de recursos disponíveis (tais como derivados de petróleo, tanques e modais de transporte) pelas diferentes bases envolvidas que necessitam enviar ou receber derivados de petróleo. Na literatura, alguns problemas semelhantes, porém mais voltados para o planejamento de redes formadas por um único tipo de modal de transporte, têm sido tratados por diferentes abordagens, com predominância da programação matemática. Estes trabalhos ilustram a difícil tarefa de modelar grandes problemas por meio desta abordagem. Geralmente, tais trabalhos consideram apenas um curto horizonte de planejamento ou apenas uma parte do problema original, tal como uma parte da rede petrolífera brasileira, gerando limitações importantes para os modelos desenvolvidos. Devido às características do problema em estudo, o qual envolve toda a rede de transporte e apresenta perfil de negociação entre as diferentes entidades envolvidas, surge o interesse da utilização do paradigma de sistemas multiagente. O paradigma de agentes tem sido aplicado a problemas de diferentes contextos, particularmente em problemas de gerenciamento de cadeias de suprimentos devido à sua correspondência natural com a realidade e, em geral, em problemas que envolvem a competição por recursos por meio de mecanismos de negociação com base em leilões. Este trabalho apresenta um novo protocolo de negociação baseado em leilões e aplicação deste protocolo em forma de um modelo multiagente na resolução do problema de planejamento em questão. Os agentes que formam a solução representam principalmente os locais de produção, armazenamento, consumo e os modais de transporte na rede petrolífera brasileira. O objetivo destes agentes é manter um nível de estoque diário factível de cada produto em cada local por meio de transferências de produtos pela rede petrolífera brasileira com preferível redução do custo de transporte. Por fim, este trabalho apresenta a satisfação destes objetivos por meio de experimentos em cenários fictícios e reais da rede brasileira de petróleo.<br>The Brazilian oil supply chain is composed by oil refineries, consumer markets, terminals for intermediary storage and several transportation modals, such as pipelines, ships, trucks and trains. The transportation planning of oil products in this multimodal network is a complex problem that is currently performed manually based on expertise, for a period of three months, due to the lack of a software system to cover the problem complexity. Such problem involves the negotiation of available resources such as oil products, tanks and transportation modals between different sources and consumption points. Similar problems, but more directed to the planning of single modes of transportation, have been treated by different approaches, mainly mathematical programming. Such works illustrate the difficult task of modeling large problems with this mechanism. Generally, they consider a short horizon planning or only part of the original problem, such as a part of the network, rendering important limitations to the models developed. Due to the characteristics of the problem in study where the full network needs to be considered and there exists negotiation amongst the different entities involved, the usage of multi-agent models seems to be worth to explore. Such models have been applied in different contexts such as to supply chain problems due its natural correspondence with the reality. Furthermore, in problems involving competition for resources, multi-agents negotiation mechanisms based on auctions are commonly applied. Thus, this thesis presents one auction-based solution formed by the cooperation among agents for them to achieve their goals. The agents involved in the auctions represent mainly the production, storage and consumption locations. Their goal is to maintain a daily suitable inventory level for each product by means of transportation through the multimodal network at a low transport cost. Finally, this paper presents the satisfaction of these objectives through experiments on real and fictional scenarios of Brazilian oil network.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2017<br>The study examined the relationship between oil price shocks, volatilities and stock indices in the African emerging markets. The ARDL and Bivariate BEKK GARCH models are used in this study. The countries examined are Botswana, Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya, Ghana, Tunisia, and the MSCI’s World Index. The study shows a bidirectional relationship between oil price shocks for Nigeria and the MSCI, but unidirectional flow from oil price shocks to Botswana, Egypt, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya, Ghana, and Tunisia. In addition, there is evidence of unidirectional volatility spill over from oil returns to Botswana, Namibia, Tanzania, Mauritius and Kenyan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Kenya and Ghana. Finally, the study found bidirectional volatility between oil and index returns in MSCI, South Africa, and Tunisia.<br>MT2017

RESEARCH THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF COMMERCE, LAW & MANAGEMENT IN PARTIAL FULLFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE MASTER OF MANAGEMENT IN FINANCE & INVESTMENTS DEGREE UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND JOHANNESBURG February, 2016<br>In this study we examine the relationship between international oil prices and the South African Rand/US Dollar exchange rate. We also determine the direction of causality between these two variables. We further ascertain the magnitude of the influence of oil prices to the exchange rate compared to other theoretically driven macroeconomic variables. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken to determine whether oil prices contain information about future Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Drawing from the works of Aliyu (2009) and Jin (2008) we use VAR based cointegration technique and vector error correction model (VECM) for the long run and short run analysis respectively. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from oil prices to exchange rate and not the other way round. We also find that a 1% permanent increase in oil prices results in 0.17% appreciation of the Rand against the US Dollar; a 1% permanent increase in money aggregates results in 21.3% depreciation of the Rand and a 1% increase in business cycles results in 0.29% depreciation of the Rand in the long run. A 1% increase in inflation and interest rates is found to result in a 0.09% and 0.005% depreciation on the Rand respectively. Our short run analysis indicates that 4.4% of the Rand/Dollar exchange rate disequilibrium can be corrected within a month. Oil prices are found to contain some information about the future Rand/US Dollar exchange rate when the VAR model is used for forecasting. This study has shown there is a causal relationship between oil prices and the strength of the Rand against the Dollar and, therefore, recommends diversification of the economy and more use of green energy. Strategies to reduce capital flight and trade-related capital is also recommended by this study. Key Words: Exchange rate, Oil price, forecasting, vector autoregressive (VAR) model, cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM), causality<br>MT2016

Ph.D. (Economic Sciences)<br>The international oil industry has always been subject to significant changes throughout the years, mainly as a result of changes in the environment, government policies, the world economy and a developing technology. Since the turn of the century, however, no changes have been as fundamental as the events of 1973. The international oil industry found itself in a very short period of time, with the following changes: The loss of production resources to the industry's previous host countries. A significant increase in the price of the products the industry handle. Increased interference by the governments of the countries in which the industry markets its products. No growth. A permanent change in the mix of petroleum products required by the market. The oil industry reacted to these changes in the following ways: Large proportions of refining networks were closed and large amounts of money were spent on additional cracking facilities for the remainder of the industry's networks. Organisational changes were introduced, with the objective of removing surplus infra-structure from a shrinking industry. iii Attention was given to other forms of energy. Whatever the reaction had been, the mere fact that refining capacity had to be reduced, and large oil tankers scrapped, suggests a lack of proper planning during the period preceding the problems of 1973. During the late fifties and sixties, when there was a steady growth in the world economy and oil prices remained static, planning ahead became relatively simple, and the oil industry planners slipped into the illusion that none of the upheave1s of history would be repeated. The signals were clearly there, but were totally ignored until far too late. To a large extent, this happened because government officials and oil company executives tended to specialise, and therefore they lacked knowledge of the oil industry as a whole. In South Africa, more planning was conducted than elsewhere in the world, but was mainly directed towards the development of synfuels and strategic storage. This was the result of South Africa's peculiar political circumstances and not because of an awareness of the need for realistic commercial planning.

本論文集收錄了三篇有關開放經濟宏觀經濟學的文章。<br>第一篇文章研究了中國從1978年到2010年實際經濟週期。本文首先詳細記錄了中國實際經濟週期三十多年來經驗特征, 我們發現中國的實際經濟週期表現出不同于其他新興市場國家和發達國家的獨特的實際經濟週期經驗特征。再則，我們通過建立實際經濟週期模型和貝葉斯估計方法來檢驗現有新興市場實際經濟週期理論能夠在多大程度上解釋中國實際經濟週期。在我們的估計結果中，我們發現一個包含持久性生產力衝擊的基準模型不能很好的解釋中國實際經濟週期。而在基準模型的基礎上添加了國際金融摩擦的擴展模型（我們稱之為金融摩擦模型）能夠較好的解釋中國實際經濟週期。國際金融摩擦替代了持久性生產力衝擊的作用并優化了模型擬合。<br>第二篇文章研究了發展中國家廣泛使用的財政性油價穩定政策的福利影響。一些評論認為作為發展中國家的主要貿易對象的發達國家，特別是美國，能夠從發展中國家的油價穩定政策中獲利。我們的文章研究了這個論題，我們建立了一個具有美元非對稱性定價特征的兩國家模型。我們發現發展中國家的最優油價補貼率以及它的全球福利影響關鍵性的取決於是否貨幣政策能夠有效的應對油價衝擊。當貨幣政策能夠完全有效並且能夠央行使用最優貨幣政策時， 發展中國家則不需要財政性的油價穩定政策。然而當貨幣政策不能夠完全有效時，即使能夠使用最優貨幣政策，發展中國家還是需要油價補貼來穩定油價。而對美國來說，由於存在非對稱性的美元定價，美國反而受到福利損失。<br>第三篇文章研究了進口中間產品價格衝擊的福利影響和傳遞機制。隨著垂直貿易的快速發展，世界中間產品價格的波動成為了小型開放經濟體國家的主要不確定性衝擊之一。我們建立並且估計了一個兩部門的價格粘性的模型來解釋中間產品價格衝擊如何通過垂直貿易途徑對小型開放經濟體產生影響。我們發現其影響關鍵性的取決于垂直貿易結構和匯率制度。再次，其影響也顯著取決于國際金融市場准入的程度。<br>This thesis consists of three essays on Open-Economy Macroeconomics.<br>The first essay studies real business cycle in Chinese economy. During the past three decades, Chinas economy experienced sizable economic fluctuations along with rapid economic growth. However, the research on Chinese real business cycle is limited. In this paper, we document some stylized facts of Chinese real business cycle from 1978 to 2010. We find that Chinese real business cycle exhibits a mixed pattern that is not consistent with those of developed economies or emerging market economies. Moreover, we investigate to what extent the existing theories of emerging market real business cycle can explain Chinese data using Bayesian estimation of small open economy real business cycle models. Our results show that a benchmark model with permanent pro-ductivity shocks cannot account for stylized facts of Chinese real business cycle very well. Instead, a Financial-Friction model that augments the benchmark with inter-national financial friction significantly improves the model fitness. And international financial friction dominates the role of permanent productivity shocks.<br>The second essay studies oil price stabilization polices that are adopted extensively in developing countries. Some argue that developed economies, especially the US, may gain from these policies through trade. This paper studies this issue in a two-country model with dollar currency pricing. We find that the optimal level of oil price stabilization chosen by developing countries and its implications for global welfare depend critically on whether monetary policy can eectively respond to oil shocks. In an environment without monetary shocks, when optimal monetary policies are considered, there is no role for oil price stabilization in developing countries. However, to make the oil price stabilization policy redundant, optimal monetary policy is not necessary. Some non-optimal endogenous monetary policies satisfying certain conditions can also make the developing countries choose zero oil price stabilization. The results change when there are monetary shocks. Even with optimal monetary policies, the developing countries will choose a positive level of oil price stabilization. However, due to dollar currency pricing, the US actually loses from the stabilization policy. Our results are well supported by the quantitative analysis in a full-fledged dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.<br>The third essay studies the welfare implication and transmission mechanism of imported intermediate goods price shock. With the rapid growth of vertical trade in small open economies, the world price fluctuation of intermediate goods has increasingly become one of major uncertainties faced by these economies. This paper develops and estimates a two-sector sticky-price model to show how intermediate goods price shock affects small open economies through vertical trade. We find that the effects depend critically on the structure of vertical trade and exchange rate policy regime. Furthermore, the quantitative eects of intermediate goods price shock also change significantly with the degree of financial integration.<br>1. Real business cycle in Chinese economy -- 2. Oil price stabilization and global welfare -- 3. The effects of intermediate good price shocks on small open economy.<br>Detailed summary in vernacular field only.<br>Detailed summary in vernacular field only.<br>Detailed summary in vernacular field only.<br>Detailed summary in vernacular field only.<br>Wu, Zhouheng.<br>Thesis (Ph.D.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2014.<br>Includes bibliographical references.<br>Abstracts also in Chinese.

Liu Guoxin.<br>Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 24-25).<br>Abstracts in English and Chinese.<br>Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.2<br>Chapter 2 --- The Model --- p.4<br>Chapter 3 --- "Estimation of μ1 ,μ2 ,α and β" --- p.7<br>Chapter 4 --- Extension --- p.9<br>Chapter 5 --- Monte Carlo Simulation --- p.11<br>Chapter 5.1 --- "Case 1. a < 1, β < 1" --- p.12<br>Chapter 5.2 --- "Case 2. a > 1, β < 1" --- p.12<br>Chapter 5.3 --- "Case 3. a < 1,β > 1" --- p.13<br>Chapter 5.4 --- "Case 4. a > 1, β> 1" --- p.13<br>Chapter 6 --- Empirical Application --- p.15<br>Chapter 6.1 --- Model Construction --- p.15<br>Chapter 6.2 --- Estimation Results --- p.15<br>Chapter 6.2.1 --- 1973Oil Crisis --- p.16<br>Chapter 6.2.2 --- 1981 Oil Crisis --- p.18<br>Chapter 6.2.3 --- 1991 Oil Crisis --- p.20<br>Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.23<br>Chapter 8 --- Bibliography --- p.24

M.Phil.<br>This research aims to establish and evaluate the main factors that influence the fuel industry in South Africa. The South African fuel industry, is influenced by different business, economical and logistical factors, which all contribute to a changing fuel environment as well as a changing fuel prices that vary on a monthly basis, as calculated by the Department of Mineral and Energy Affairs(DMEA). These factors including crude oil procurement, petroleum industry, synthetic fuel industry and geographical locations, are fundamentally important, and explained in more detail in the chapters to follow. Oil as main supply source to the fuel industry, plays a vital role to South Africa as industrial developing country. The crude oil imported from the eastern countries is refined into petroleum and alternative fuels, necessary to the economy. The oil price thus influences the petroleum price, which in turn influences the cost of food and accessories. This research will for this reason also focus on aspects such as the actual importation of crude oil, petroleum price structure, price zones, synfuels and alternative fuels, and the affect these aspects have on the fuel industry.