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Journal articles on the topic 'Phillips curve'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 28 July 2024

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1

Imbs, Jean, Eric Jondeau, and Florian Pelgrin. "Sectoral Phillips curves and the aggregate Phillips curve." Journal of Monetary Economics 58, no. 4 (May 2011): 328–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2011.05.013.

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2

Hasan, M. Aynul. "Is there a Phillips Curve in Pakistan?" Pakistan Development Review 27, no. 4II (December 1, 1988): 839–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v27i4iipp.839-851.

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Since the publication of A.W. Phillip's (1958) influential paper on the relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of the money wage rate, count• less studies have appeared to refine, reformulate and re-estimate structural equations explaining the rates of change in the wage rates and the price level or inflation rates. 1 The empirical findings of the Phillips curve relationships during the past two decades have been considered to be a contentious issue particularly in developed countries. 2 Despite the fact that the original hypothesis of the Phillips curve has been questioned and challenged,3 nevertheless, the importance of this subject has been preserved by its continued relevance for policy. Not only that, Friedman (1970, 1971) claimed that the Phillips curve plays the important role of the "missing equation" separating his own quantity theory of money from the Keynesian theory.

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3

Mathews, Don. "DID IRVING FISHER REALLY DISCOVER THE PHILLIPS CURVE?" Journal of the History of Economic Thought 41, no. 2 (April 22, 2019): 255–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837218000275.

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Economic lore has it that, with his 1926 article, “A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes,” Irving Fisher “discovered the Phillips curve.” Did he? This paper argues he did not, for two reasons. One: the statistical relationship between inflation and unemployment that Fisher described in his 1926 article was contemporaneously described by Alvin Hansen, Henri Fuss, John Rotherford Bellerby, and Arthur Pigou in their own studies. Two: the statistical relationship that Fisher, Hansen, Fuss, Bellerby, and Pigou described is substantially different from the statistical relationship that Alban William Phillips described in his famous 1958 paper, as well as the many variations of the Phillips curve in the literature, including today’s conventional expectations-augmented Phillips curve. To correct the economic lore, the work of Fisher, Hansen, Fuss, Bellerby, and Pigou on the statistical relationship between inflation and unemployment and Phillips’s 1958 paper should be viewed as separate contributions.

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4

Smith, Simon C., Allan Timmermann, and Jonathan Wright. "Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data." Finance and Economics Discussion Series, no. 2023-015 (April 2023): 1–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.2023.015.

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We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns of instability and to examine lead-lag patterns in how individual inflation series change. We find evidence of a marked flattening in the Phillips curves for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Conversely, evidence of a flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and for the wage Phillips curve. US regional data and EU data point to a kink in the price Phillips curve which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot.

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5

Graafland, J. J. "From Phillips curve to wage curve." De Economist 140, no. 4 (December 1992): 501–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01725242.

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6

Grabia, Tomasz. "The Phillips Curve Controversy." Gospodarka Narodowa 273, no. 5 (October 31, 2014): 5–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.33119/gn/100869.

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7

BRESSER-PEREIRA, LUIZ CARLOS, and YOSHIAKI NAKANO. "Inflação inercial e curva de Phillips." Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 6, no. 2 (April 1986): 237–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571986-2069.

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RESUMO Esta nota apresenta o problema da indexação de salários, taxa de câmbio e outros preços na curva de Phillips. Com este objetivo desenvolvemos um modelo simplificado do processo inflacionário decompondo-o em: (1) inflação inercial; (2) a curva de Phillips; (3) inflação de choque administrado ou de oferta. Usando este modelo, primeiro mostramos que um choque de oferta desloca a curva de Phillips acelerando a taxa de tendência da inflação inercial. Segundo, que uma pressão de demanda contínua através da curva de Phillips leva a uma aceleração contínua da taxa de inflação. E terceiro, que um aumento na taxa de desemprego pode levar a um aumento oligopolista na margem de lucro, o que também leva a um deslocamento da curva de Phillips e a uma aceleração da inflação.

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8

Simister, John. "The Phillips Curve and Oil Prices." International Research in Economics and Finance 1, no. 1 (December 10, 2017): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.20849/iref.v1i1.272.

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This paper investigates the “Phillips curve”, a controversial topic in macroeconomics. Many economists claim the Phillips curve is unreliable; recent evidence suggests economists should reconsider the Phillips curve. In particular, this paper investigates a modified Phillips curve, broadly consistent with the 1958 paper by Phillips: it includes import prices as an important influence on inflation. Analysis begins with UK data, as a case study: three Figures are shown, with a discussion on effects of OPEC global oil prices-rises in 1970s. This paper reports regression evidence, for nine countries, which support the idea that the Phillips curve is clearer if we control for import prices.

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9

Button, Kenneth. "A. J. BROWN, “PHILLIPS’S CURVE,” AND ECONOMIC NETWORKS IN THE 1950S." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 40, no. 2 (April 17, 2018): 243–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837217000025.

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This paper examines the role of the English economist Arthur (A. J.) Brown in the 1950s debate surrounding the wage-rate change/unemployment relationship. While the publication of William (Bill) Phillips’s 1958 paper and the subsequent moniker of the “Phillips Curve” attracted a wealth of attention, Brown’s book on the subject, The Great Inflation, and his later work on inflation have received much less. Here, the focus is on redressing this situation somewhat by looking at Brown’s work to see how much it predates Phillips’s paper, and what differences there are to it. We also consider this within the changing institutional structure of English economic networks in the 1950s that led to a relatively rapid acceptance of Phillips’s analysis and, in many cases, to a strong, ordinal interpretation of the Phillips Curve that overshadowed Brown’s work.

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10

Rusticelli, Elena. "Rescuing the Phillips curve." OECD Journal: Economic Studies 2014, no. 1 (March 27, 2015): 109–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2014-5jxrcm2cdff6.

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11

Bildirici, Melike, and Ceren Turkmen. "New Monetarist Phillips Curve." Procedia Economics and Finance 38 (2016): 360–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(16)30208-8.

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12

Benigno, Pierpaolo, and Gauti B. Eggertsson. "Slanted-L Phillips Curve." AEA Papers and Proceedings 114 (May 1, 2024): 84–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20241051.

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A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the nonlinearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces unemployment without creating strong inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, supply shocks have a muted effect. At sufficiently low unemployment, there is a labor shortage, so that the economy is at full capacity. Then, higher demand is inflationary and supply shocks are amplified. We derive a model of a slanted-L curve.

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13

Sleeman, A. G. "Retrospectives: The Phillips Curve: A Rushed Job?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 25, no. 1 (February 1, 2011): 223–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.25.1.223.

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Half a century ago, Economica published what its webpage claims is “the most heavily cited macroeconomics title of the 20th century”—the paper by A. W. H. “Bill” Phillips (1958) that introduced the Phillips curve. Based on admittedly circumstantial evidence, I will argue that Bill Phillips was not satisfied with the paper and had not intended to publish it in 1958. I believe that Phillips was persuaded to allow his paper to be published in 1958 by James Meade. After a brief overview of Phillips' early life and career, I attempt to show why Phillips was probably unhappy with the paper that introduced the curve that came to be identified with his name and how, nevertheless, it came to be published.

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14

Roberts, John M. "The Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve." Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997, no. 57 (December 1997): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.1997.57.

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15

Maka, Alexis, and Fernando de Holanda Barbosa. "Inflation expectations and the Phillips curve: an encompassing framework." Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico (PPE) : v. 52, n. 01, abr. 2022. 52, no. 1 (January 27, 2023): 7–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.38116/ppe52n1art1.

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This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics – the Accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), Hybrid Phillips curve (HPC) and Sticky Information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve specification that allows us to derive tests for these models within a single framework. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, the evidence suggests that the restrictions implied by the NKPC, HPC, and SIPC are rejected for the period after the Real Plan in Brazil. Only the restrictions implied by the APC are not rejected. However, when we construct confidence regions that are robust to weak instruments, it is not possible to reject any of the Phillips curve specifications, including the NKPC.

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16

Phiri, Andrew. "Pursuing the Phillips Curve in an African Monarchy: A Swazi Case Study." Contemporary Economics 16, no. 4 (December 31, 2022): 460–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5709/ce.1897-9254.494.

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The purpose of this study is to examine whether we can identify a Phillips curve fit for the Kingdom of Eswatini as a low middle income Sub-Saharan Africa monarchy using data collected between 1991 and 2016. In our approach we rely on the recently introduced nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model to a variety of Phillips curve specifications. For robustness sake, we further employ three filters (one-sided HP, two-sided HP, and Corbae-Oularis filters) to extract the gap variables necessary for empirical analysis. Our findings point to a linear, short-run traditional Phillips curve whereas we find strong support for concave shaped unemployment-gap and output–gap based Phillips curve specifications. Given the specific form of concavity discovered in the Phillips curves, the low inflation rate experienced over the last couple of decades can be attributed to a worsening labour and goods markets. Moreover, our evidence further cautions Swazi policymakers of ‘overheating’ of the economy during economic booms in which stabilization tools are required to implemented in such instances.

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17

Khan, Hafsa, and Pooja Pohwani. "Testing Phillips Curve In Pakistan." Journal of Public Value and Administrative Insight 3, no. 3 (November 2, 2020): 145–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.31580/jpvai.v3i3.1515.

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Pakistan has usually faced a high inflation rate along with the high unemployment rate since its inception. In every discussion of inflation and unemployment, one cannot ignore the contribution of Dr. Alban William Housego Phillips. Dr. A. W Phillips has done a remarkable contribution in the field of economics with his popular theory known as The Phillips Curve. Empirical Literature of Pakistan has a good portion of researches on inflation rate and unemployment rate discretely, but very few researches focus to find out the exhibition of Phillips Curve in the economy. Therefore, this study aims to find out the impact of inflation on the unemployment rate and growth rate of the gross domestic product of Pakistan. As the aforementioned statement suggests, the independent variable of the study is inflation rate while the dependent variables are unemployment rate and growth rate of gross domestic product. The data range selected was of 20 years that is from 1991-92 to 2019-20. Results were extracted by using three test of EViews software that are, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Granger Cointegration Test, and Johansen Cointegration Test. Findings showed that there is an impact of inflation rate on unemployment rate and gross domestic product growth rate of Pakistan. In short, there can be seen a reflection of Phillips Curve in Pakistan.

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18

Pontiggia, Dario. "Phillips curve and long-run inflation under commitment." Journal of Economic Studies 47, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 21–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2018-0229.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips curve and the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) as special limiting cases.Design/methodology/approachThis paper derives the long-run rate of inflation in a basic New Keynesian (NK) model, characterized by sticky prices and rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters. The monetary authority possesses commitment and its objective function stems from an approximation to the utility of the representative household.FindingsCommitment solution for the monetary authority leads to steady-state outcomes in which inflation, albeit small, is positive. Rising from zero under the purely forward-looking NKPC, the optimal long-run rate of inflation reaches its maximum under the purely backward-looking Phillips curve. In this case, inflation bias arises, while, under the hybrid Phillips curve, positive long-run inflation is associated with an output gain.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper serves as a clarification against the misperception that log-linearized models take as given the steady-state inflation rate rather than being capable of determining it. Analysis is sensitive to the basic NK setting, with the assumed rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters and price staggering.Originality/valueThe results are the first to quantify the optimal long-run rate of inflation in a fully microfounded model that nests different Phillips curves.

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19

Kalbasi Anaraki, Nahid. "Labor Productivity and Phillips Curve in China: Contemporary Investigation." Journal of Global Economy 15, no. 1 (April 2, 2019): 37–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1956/jge.v15i1.574.

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The Phillips curve on the trade-off between inflation and unemployment has been debated among economists for more than decades. Several studies have found that Phillips curve is dead in advanced economies and does not exist. Among others, Friedman (1968) stated that Phillips curve does not exist in the long-run because the relationship between inflation and unemployment is a temporary and short-term. On the contrary, Fuhrer (1995) found that Phillips curve is still alive in the United Kingdom; and Malinov and Sommers (1997) found that Phillips curve is still alive and stable in several OECD countries. This paper attempts to investigate whether a long-run Philips Curve exists in China. Using data for the period of 1987-2016 the estimated results of this study indicate that the Phillips curve, which existed during the late 1980s through 2000 in China has been gradually transformed to an almost vertical curve since 2000s, with a correlation of 0.8, indicating the importance of other policy variables including monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.

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20

Ma, Jinpeng. "Mystery of Modern Phillips Curve." Modern Economy 03, no. 08 (2012): 907–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/me.2012.38113.

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21

Ma, Jinpeng. "The Modern Phillips Curve Revisited." Modern Economy 05, no. 03 (2014): 188–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/me.2014.53020.

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22

Forder, J. "Textbooks on the Phillips Curve." History of Political Economy 47, no. 2 (January 1, 2015): 207–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-2884309.

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23

Gruen, David, Adrian Pagan, and Christopher Thompson. "The Phillips curve in Australia." Journal of Monetary Economics 44, no. 2 (October 1999): 223–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0304-3932(99)00024-0.

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24

Kuttner, Ken, and Tim Robinson. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve." North American Journal of Economics and Finance 21, no. 2 (August 2010): 110–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2008.10.003.

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25

Stiassny, Alfred. "The Austrian Phillips Curve reconsidered." Empirica 12, no. 1 (1985): 43–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf00929491.

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26

Montuenga-Gomez, Victor M., and Jose M. Ramos-Parreno. "Reconciling the Wage Curve and the Phillips Curve." Journal of Economic Surveys 19, no. 5 (December 2005): 735–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0950-0804.2005.00266.x.

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27

Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Mauricio Ulate. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures." AEA Papers and Proceedings 109 (May 1, 2019): 465–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20191055.

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Tightening labor markets in the United States and other advanced economies suggest inflation should be on the rise, yet it remains subdued. Is the Phillips curve broken? We bring together surveys of household or firm expectations for 18 countries to estimate an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. We find strong evidence of a Phillips curve relationship: the Phillips curve is alive and well. The fact that inflation remains well below inflation expectations, both in the United States and abroad, suggests that there remains significant slack in labor markets.

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28

Gentle, Paul F. "Introduction to the Inclusion of the Real Interest Rate with other factors in Phillips Curve Analysis." Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks 6, no. 1 (2022): 50–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/fmir.6(1).50-54.2022.

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This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue regarding the Inclusion of the Real Interest Rate with other factors in Phillips Curve Analysis. The main purpose of the article is to cause economists to consider the inclusion of the real interest rate in Philips Curve analysis. Earlier economists have examined the Phillips Curve, including Irving Fisher (1926). Later Phillips (1958, 1961) made enough of impression to give the Phillips Curve its appellation (1958, 1961). Further work has been done by Freidman, Phelps Lucas, Rapping and others. Shifts from the Short Run Phillips Curve (SRPC) to the Long Run Phillips Curve (LRPC) have been explained primarily through workers not realizing their real wage has decreased until some time has passed. Also, this shifting from the SRPC to the LRPC is due to producers thinking that demand for their products has had a real, sustained increase, producers finally realize that is not true. This article agrees with those factors being present but also posits the idea of changes in the real interest rate affecting the shift form the SRPC to the LRPC. This brief article summarizes the conclusions of five econometric papers that suggest that the real interest rate should be included in Phillips Curve Analysis. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the five articles with econometric evidence suggest that the real interest rate be included in Phillips Curve Analysis. Though Austrian economists consider capital in their theories, Austrian economists do not use Phillips Curve analysis but instead employ Hayekian Triangles. The results of the research shows that inflation and unemployment have a stable and inverse relationship. These results can be useful for economic analysts, government, financial experts, policymakers.

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29

P, Woodburne, Zhao Y, Raehsler R, and Sohng S. "The Dynamic Phillips Curve Revisited: An Error Correction Model." International Journal of Advances in Management and Economics 1, no. 5 (September 2, 2012): 01–04. http://dx.doi.org/10.31270/ijame/01/05/2012/01.

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30

Barnichon, Regis, and Geert Mesters. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks*." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 4 (June 16, 2020): 2255–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa022.

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Abstract Despite decades of research, the consistent estimation of structural forward-looking macroeconomic equations remains a formidable empirical challenge because of pervasive endogeneity issues. Prominent cases—the estimation of Phillips curves, Euler equations, or monetary policy rules—have typically relied on using predetermined variables as instruments, with mixed success. In this work, we propose a new approach that consists in using sequences of independently identified structural shocks as instrumental variables. Our approach is robust to weak instruments and is valid regardless of the shocks’ variance contribution. We estimate a Phillips curve using monetary shocks as instruments and find that conventional methods substantially underestimate the slope of the Phillips curve.

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31

Maichal, Maichal. "KURVA PHILLIPS DI INDONESIA." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 13, no. 2 (December 1, 2012): 183. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v13i2.178.

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This paper aims to analyze the existence of the Philips curve in the Indonesian economy, 2000Q1-2010Q3. The results obtained by using OLS method shows that the expectations augmented Philips curve and the New Keynesian Philips curve models cannot give a clear results of Philips curve existence in the Idonesia economy. Shocks variable such as percentage change of exchange rates and crude oil prices provide a very small effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia. Furthermore, the results obtained by using GMM method on the hybrid model of the New Keynesian Philips curve shows that the Philips curve exists in the Indonesian economy.

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32

Zhang, Lingxiang. "MODELING THE PHILLIPS CURVE IN CHINA: A NONLINEAR PERSPECTIVE." Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, no. 2 (May 24, 2016): 439–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515000577.

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This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the inflation–output type of Phillips curve based on a multiple-regime smooth transition regression model using data from China. The empirical results indicate significant nonlinearities in China's Phillips curve. The relationship between inflation and output can be modeled by a four-regime smooth transition regression model in which the responses of inflation to output depend on both inflation and economic growth rates. The inflation–output type Phillips curve may be positively sloped, negatively sloped, or even vertical in the short term, depending on different business cycles. Furthermore, we analyze business cycle fluctuations based on the nonlinear Phillips curve, indicating a coexisting zone of stable inflation rate and rapid growth rate.

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33

Wang, Lu, Marek Vochozka, and Pavel Rousek. "The relationship between the short-term and long-term Phillips curve for the Czech Republic." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 19, no. 2 (June 23, 2022): 250–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.19(2).2022.22.

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Inflation in Czech Republic in 2021 significantly deviated from the tolerance band. Although the economic results are lagging behind expectations, inflationary pressures, mainly from abroad, are still intensifying. At the same time, the rapid rise in consumer prices affects not only households and consumers, but also business and companies. As is known, a very important tool for understanding inflation is the Phillips curve, which shows the relationship between two variables, the first one is inflation and the second one is unemployment. The aim of this paper is to research the relationship between the short-term Philips curves and long-term Phillips curves for the Czech Republic. For this purpose, data on the inflation rate and unemployment rate between 1993 and 2018 were contrasted based on data published by the Czech Statistical Office. The short-term Phillips curve was assumed under adaptive expectation conditions, whereby a regression analysis was undertaken using SPSS statistical software to determine suitable values for the corresponding parameters. In addition, and in accordance with the trend figure and data description figure for both the unemployment rate variable and inflation rate variable, the basis for the development of the long-term Phillips curve is described. Subsequently, it is concluded that a mutually substitutive relationship exists with regards to the short-term and that the long-term is an irregular circular curve that moves in a clockwise direction.

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34

Tanaka, Yasuhito. "Microeconomic Foundation of the Phillips Curve." Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai Oeconomica 65, no. 3 (December 1, 2020): 14–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/subboec-2020-0012.

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Abstract It is an important problem to derive negative relation between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, that is, the Phillips curve without market imperfection. We derive the Phillips curve using an overlapping generations model under monopolistic competition. We consider the effects of exogenous changes in labor productivity. An increase (decrease) in the labor productivity in a period induces a decrease (increase) in the employment, an increase (decrease) in the unemployment rate and a falling (rising) in the price of the goods in the same period. Then, given the price in the previous period the inflation rate falls (rises). This conclusion is based on the premise of utility maximization of consumers and profit maximization of firms. Therefore, we have presented a microeconomic foundation of the Phillips curve.

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35

Sözen, İlyas, and Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner. "Analysis of the Validity of the Phillips Curve in Turkic Republics." Journal of Eurasian Economies 2, no. 1 (January 13, 2023): 11–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/j02.1.0120.

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The trade-off between unemployment and inflation has long been debated. The negative relationship between inflation and unemployment is explained by the Phillips Curve. Various schools of economics have different views of the Phillips Curve. The aim of the study is to analyze the validity of the Phillips Curve in Turkic Republics. In the study, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were analyzed for the period 1991-2020. In this context, panel causality and cointegration tests were used to reveal both short- and long-term relationships. According to the results of the panel data analysis, a mutual relationship was found between unemployment and inflation both in the short-term and in the long-term.

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36

Omerčević, Edo, and Elif Nuroğlu. "Phillips and Wage Curves: Empirical Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina." Economics Research International 2014 (August 31, 2014): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/436527.

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This study is an empirical examination of the existence and characteristics of the Phillips curve and the wage curve in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The findings indicate that there is no evidence of the existence of the short-term Phillips curve. Instead, the data suggests that in the short-term an increase in inflation leads to an increase in unemployment. The estimated wage curves indicate that only increases in real payment increase employment. The conclusion of this study is that increases in inflation might have a negative short-term impact on the level of employment in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

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37

Islam, Mohammed Saiful, and Riduanul Mustafa. "Quest for a Valid Phillips Curve in the Long Run: An Empirical Approach." International Business Research 10, no. 4 (March 28, 2017): 191. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v10n4p191.

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This paper examines the relationship between inflation rate (percentage change in consumer price index) and unemployment rate (number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labor force) by using modern econometric approach to find a “Phillips Curve”. Using US data of both monthly and yearly frequency, the paper finds the existence of a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. A linear form of the Phillips curve is estimated for the USA using ordinary least squares estimation (OLS). The co integration test shows the long run relation between the variables. This contradicts the theory that in long run the Phillips curve should be vertical. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the Phillips Curve fits the data well; (b) inflation of previous year influences the present rate of inflation and (c) both monthly data and yearly data support the existence of Phillips curve in the long run

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38

Krulický, Tomáš, Veronika Šanderová, and Dominik Dolejš. "Evaluation of inflation and unemployment and plotting the Philips curve of the Czech Republic." SHS Web of Conferences 132 (2022): 01007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202213201007.

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The Phillips curve was supposed to mean an expansion of the doctrine based on the original regulatory ideas of J. M. Keynes. At the time of its inception (1950s), it gave governments theoretical hope, coming from the possibility of choosing a negative correlation between the price level (P) and the product (Y). Her early denial (at least in the short term) by Milton Friedman, on the other hand, has not changed anything about other applications that are still relevant until present time. In the fact, advantage of Phillips curve is her ability based on broad-spectrum use for any type of national economy. The aim of this work is to determine the shape of the Phillips curve for the Czech Republic in the period from 2000 to the present and to compare its shape with the shape of the original Phillips curve. The method of regression analysis is used here, comparison and prediction are performed using time series. In this paper, we find out what the short-term Phillips curve looks like for the Czech Republic, that it does not coincide with the original Phillips curve, and that in the future we can count on a growing correlation between inflation and unemployment.

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Skovranek, Tomas. "The Mittag-Leffler Fitting of the Phillips Curve." Mathematics 7, no. 7 (July 1, 2019): 589. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math7070589.

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In this paper, a mathematical model based on the one-parameter Mittag-Leffler function is proposed to be used for the first time to describe the relation between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, also known as the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve is in the literature often represented by an exponential-like shape. On the other hand, Phillips in his fundamental paper used a power function in the model definition. Considering that the ordinary as well as generalised Mittag-Leffler function behave between a purely exponential function and a power function it is natural to implement it in the definition of the model used to describe the relation between the data representing the Phillips curve. For the modelling purposes the data of two different European economies, France and Switzerland, were used and an “out-of-sample” forecast was done to compare the performance of the Mittag-Leffler model to the performance of the power-type and exponential-type model. The results demonstrate that the ability of the Mittag-Leffler function to fit data that manifest signs of stretched exponentials, oscillations or even damped oscillations can be of use when describing economic relations and phenomenons, such as the Phillips curve.

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Bartkus, Algirdas. "The Estimation of Traditional Phillips Curve." Ekonomika 102, no. 2 (October 4, 2023): 47–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ekon.2023.102.2.3.

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This article presents theoretical foundations for original Phillips curve formulation and an empirical investigation, where the structure of the theoretical model serves as a template for the creation of the empirical model.For a couple of decades the majority of empirical Phillips curve type assessments are performed using the New Keynesian Phillips curve with Calvo pricing as a benchmark for this type of relationship. New Keynesian model has solid microeconomic foundations, has proved itself very well in the analysis of price stickiness; nevertheless, it is not without limitations. The main insufficiency of New Keynesian model is that it has no direct links to the conditions and the changes that occur in the labour market. The need to encompass the conditions in labour market comes from the coincides that occur time to time when the growth rates of aggregate production may diminish or even become negative, but the level of employment may stay the same, what in turn means that the pressure on inflation won’t drop, despite the fact that production level has not increased as expected or even has decreased. This article aims to fill this gap and presents alternative theoretical foundations for Phillips curve, that lead to the model with direct links to the labour market. Theoretical foundations are necessary as they may help to minimize the risks to miss some important details or to omit important factors. Although the empirical analysis in this paper is based on Lithuanian data, it is not country specific.

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Katagiri, Mitsuru. "Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy." IMF Working Papers 18, no. 242 (2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382370.001.

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Whelan, Karl. "Wage Curve vs. Phillips Curve : Are There Macroeconomic Implications?" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997, no. 51 (1997): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.1997.51.

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Marais, Martin, and Jannie Rossouw. "The Phillips Curve Revisited: Implications of an Inaccurate Urban Legend." Southern African Business Review 22 (May 7, 2018): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.25159/1998-8125/3786.

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In his article, The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957, Phillips demonstrates a clear trade-off relationship between the rate of change in nominal wages and the rate of change in unemployment for the period under study. Post-publication, Phillips’ article became popular and is widely discussed in first-year economics textbooks. This article analyses the educational implications of the Phillips curve in textbooks prescribed by South African universities. It has been found that in a number of these publications, the Phillips curve is incorrectly illustrated as a trade-off between the level of inflation and the level of unemployment, which is not what the author concluded. A change in the way the Phillips curve is taught at tertiary institutions is therefore required to ensure that students are properly informed about aspects impacting employment. The findings of Phillips in their original format, rather than as misrepresented in some South African textbooks, should be taught to South African students. The research also shows that educators should consult original sources, rather than relying on the interpretation of others, when teaching technical aspects of an academic discipline.

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Amberger, Johanna, and Ralf Fendel. "The Slope of the Euro Area Phillips Curve: Always and Everywhere the Same?" Applied Economics and Finance 4, no. 3 (March 22, 2017): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v4i3.2296.

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To determine whether the sensitivity of inflation to changes in the business cycle varies over time, hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curves are formulated in state space form and estimated via the Kalman filter. Analyses cover the Euro Area aggregate and eleven Euro Area countries. Results confirm the increasingly important role of inflation expectations. While the Phillips curve flattens until 2007, slope coefficients increase considerably with the financial crisis in 2007/08 on the basis of output gaps. Nonetheless, stable or decreasing slope coefficients are observed on the basis of unemployment gaps, indicating strong dependence on the driving variable used in estimations. Overall, differences in cross-country Phillips curve parameters are decreasing, indicating a convergence of Euro Area countries' inflation dynamics since 1990.

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Furlanetto, Francesco, and Antoine Lepetit. "The Slope of the Phillips Curve." Finance and Economics Discussion Series, no. 2024-043 (June 2024): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.2024.043.

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We review recent developments in the estimation and identification of the Phillips curve and its slope. We have three main objectives. First, we describe the econometric challenges faced by traditional approaches of estimating the Phillips curve, explain how new approaches address those challenges, and assess which limitations still remain. Second, we review the findings of those new approaches and examine the evidence regarding a potential flattening of the Phillipscurve in the pre-pandemic period. Third, we provide an account of inflation dynamics in the post-pandemic period with a particular emphasis on the role of nonlinearities.

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Leeson, Robert. "Early Doubts about the Phillips Curve Trade-Off." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 20, no. 1 (March 1998): 83–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837200001607.

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The language of graphical analysis has an immediacy which has proven potent in the dissemination of economic ideas (Solow, 1987, p. 186). J. M. Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money contained only one diagram (Keynes, 1936, p. 180), but J. R. Hicks' graphical IS/LM analysis contributed to the popularization of one interpretation of Keynes' message. Paul Samuelson's textbook used many graphs, which may account, in part, for its pedagogical irresistibility (Elzinga, 1992, p. 863). Two graphs, named after A. W. H. Phillips and Arthur Laffer respectively, became particularly influential in post-1960 policy debates. The “theoretical Phillips curve” (Phillips, 1953, p. 31; 1954, p. 308) was of interest mainly to specialists in optimal control theory; and Phillips' second empirical curve (Phillips, 1959) remained unpublished for almost four decades. Yet his first empirical curve (1958) led to policy implications which were accepted by virtually an entire scientific profession almost instantaneously, “with alacrity” (Friedman, 1977, p. 469). It appeared to fill a gap in the Keynesian neoclassical synthesis, and was rapidly adopted by the textbook writers (Samuelson, 1961, p. 383; Lipsey, 1963, p. 438). During the 1960s, it became widely accepted that ongoing inflation would be accompanied by a sustained reduction in unemployment. When inflation came to be associated with increasing rates of unemployment, this reflected adversely on the economics profession in general, and Keynesian economics in particular.

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Negro, Marco Del, Michele Lenza, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2020, no. 1 (2020): 301–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0004.

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Sahu, Kabita Kumari. "Phillips Curve and Inflation in India." Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance 7, no. 5 (2017): 87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5958/2249-7323.2017.00030.x.

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Grubb, David. "Topics in the OECD Phillips Curve." Economic Journal 96, no. 381 (March 1986): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2233426.

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Dang, Dan Van, and Binh Duc Vu. "Testing the Phillips curve in Vietnam." Science and Technology Development Journal 19, no. 1 (September 22, 2018): 52–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.32508/stdj.v19i1.527.

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This paper employs qualitative and quantitative methods to test the theory of Philips Curve in Vietnam in the period between 2000 and 2014. The results show that the Philips Curve applies to the actual situation of the Vietnam’s economy, which is useful for both macro-economic planning by the Government and monetary policy making by the State Bank of Vietnam. The paper also suggests implications of an increased application of the Philips Curve to the economic policy management, thereby contributing to the stabilized socio-economic development in Vietnam

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