Academic literature on the topic 'Plant viruses – Transmission'

The cacao swollen shoot disease of Theobroma cacao L. (cacao) is caused by Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV; genus, Badnavirus, family, Caulimoviridae). The virus is endemic to West Africa, where it poses a serious threat to cocoa production. Despite efforts to control CSSV spread by replacement of infected trees with tolerant cultivars and mealybug vector management, the disease is widespread in West Africa. In Trinidad, leaf mosaic and vein-banding symptoms have been observed in cacao plants in the field since the 1940s, and recently at the International Cocoa Genebank (ICGT), a custodian of cacao germplasm resources. The strains A and B of the suspect Cacao Trinidad virus (CTV) caused the symptoms, and were thought to be related to CSSV, however, viral causality was not demonstrated, until now. To develop molecular detection methods for CSSV in infected plants, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of eight regions of the CSSV genome was implemented. The PCR results showed variable amplification frequencies of 19 - 42% at each region, for 124 isolates collected in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. Pairwise nucleotide (nt) analyses of the eight regions showed 66-99% shared identities, indicating that CSSV isolates exhibit extensive variability with respect to primer design. The results provided preliminary evidence for the existence of a CSSV complex consisting of four divergent species. The full length genome of 14 CSSV isolates from cacao determined using the Illumina HiSeq platform showed 70-99% shared nt identities. The pairwise nt identities placed CSSV sequences into a group of four distinct species, one of which represented a previously undescribed species. Moreover, the full-length genomes grouped phylogenetically with other badnaviruses and revealed two CSSV subclades with three types of genome arrangements; four, five or six open reading frames (ORFs). Predicted functional protein domains were conserved on each ORF. Two distinct, full-length genome sequences were determined using the Illumina HiSeq platform, from DNA isolated from cacao leaves exhibiting distinct symptoms in Trinidad. The sequences were validated by PCR-amplification and sequencing of overlapping viral genome fragments. Pairwise nt analysis indicated that each genome shared 52-62% nt identities with CSSV and other badnaviruses, suggesting that the two are distinct species. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that the two sequences are not strains of the same virus, as supposed, but they represent two previously undescribed species in the genus, Badnavirus, and they have been named Cacao mild mosaic virus (CaMMV) and Cacao yellow-vein-banding virus (CYVBV). Despite sharing the same host and causing similar symptoms in cacao, CSSV, CaMMV, and CYVBV are phylogenetically-distinct species. The discovery of a CSSV species complex and the identification of three new cacao-infecting badnavirus species will support the development of molecular detection tools using the partial and complete genome sequences determined in this study. The ability to develop validated molecular tools for the detection of CSSV and related viruses, CaMMV and CYVBV, in cacao will aid quarantine efforts and safe movement of germplasm from the ICGT in Trinidad to cacao-growing countries, worldwide. Also, molecular diagnostics tools are expected to be useful in efforts underway to develop CSSV-resistant planting material for countries in West Africa, which are currently experiencing continued or new disease outbreaks.

Les polérovirus infectent une large gamme de plantes d’intérêt économique. Ils sont transmis par un insecte vecteur, le puceron, selon le mode circulant non-multipliant. Le virus, acquis par le puceron lors de l’ingestion de sève sur une plante infectée, traverse l’épithélium des cellules intestinales puis celui des glandes salivaires par un mécanisme de transcytose impliquant des récepteurs encore inconnus. Le récepteur de l’éphrine (Eph) est une protéine membranaire dont un domaine est capable de se lier dans la levure aux protéines structurales des polérovirus. En développant des techniques basées sur l’ARN interférence, nous avons montré que l’acquisition orale d’ARN double brin ciblant Eph chez le puceron Myzus persicae permet de réduire de manière reproductible l’internalisation des polérovirus dans le corps du puceron. Les pucerons ainsi traités transmettent le virus avec une efficacité réduite. Eph pourrait donc assurer la fonction de récepteur des polérovirus chez M. persicae
Poleroviruses infect a wide range of economically important plants. They are transmitted in a circulative and non-propagative mode by an insect vector, the aphid. The virus particles are acquired by aphids when ingesting the sap from an infected plant and cross successively the epithelia of the midgut and the salivary gland cells by a transcytosis mechanism that relies on the presence of unknown receptors.The ephrin receptor (Eph) is a membrane protein which contains a domain able to bind in yeast to the structural proteins of poleroviruses. By developing methods based on RNA interference, we have shown that oral acquisition of double-stranded RNA targeting Eph in the aphid Myzus persicae can reproducibly reduce polerovirus internalization into the aphid's body. Such treated aphids transmit the virus to plants with a lower efficiency. Eph could therefore function as a receptor for poleroviruses in M. persicae

Insetos vetores de fitopatógenos são responsáveis por causarem perdas significativas na agricultura, principalmente por disseminarem microrganismos que provocam doenças nas plantas hospedeiras. A mosca-branca Bemisia tabaci biótipo B é um inseto praga de relevante importância na cultura do tomate, capaz de transmitir diversos vírus nessa cultura. Assim, os objetivos deste trabalho foram: verificar a resistência à transmissão do begomovírus Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV) por B. tabaci biótipo B em genótipos de tomateiro com e sem aplicação do inseticida sintético ciantraniliprole; conhecer melhor acerca das interações inseto-planta através de experimentos de atratividade quanto à alimentação e oviposição do inseto e de comportamento de prova de adultos virulíferos de B. tabaci biótipo B em genótipos de tomateiro monitorados por Electrical penetration graph (EPG). Foram selecionados cinco genótipos de tomateiro: \'Santa Clara\' (suscetível à mosca-branca), \'Ivety\' e \'Carina TY\' (resistentes a ToSRV), LA1335 e LA716 (resistentes à mosca-branca), para um experimento inicial para selecionar o genótipo mais suscetível ao inseto e ao vírus, o mais resistente ao vírus, e o mais resistente ao inseto para condução dos demais experimentos. Selecionou-se \'Santa Clara\' (suscetível a ambos os organismos), \'Ivety\' (resistente a ToSRV) e LA716 (resistente ao inseto). No experimento de atratividade, ficou demonstrado que LA716 repeliu as moscas-brancas, sendo o menos atrativo, seguido de \'Ivety\' e depois \'Santa Clara\' que foi o genótipo que apresentou maior número de moscas-brancas. Os três genótipos tratados com o inseticida ciantraniliprole, e o genótipo LA716 não tratado (resistência genética isoladamente) conseguiram reduzir a inoculação de ToSRV pelas moscas-brancas e provocar alta mortalidade dos insetos. Ademais, os genótipos tratados com ciantraniliprole, e \'Ivety\' não tratado apresentaram menor severidade de ToSRV do que \'Santa Clara\', o mais suscetível. Através da técnica de EPG, ficou evidenciado que LA716 e o tratamento dos três genótipos com ciantraniliprole promoveram efeitos semelhantes em B. tabaci biótipo B, em que houve redução do número de eventos da onda np, de prova, da onda C e da onda G por inseto, além de reduzir significativamente a proporção de indivíduos que realizaram as ondas pd, E1, E2, F, G, ingestão no floema por tempo prolongado, provas curtas, e aumentar a duração da onda np e reduzir a duração do tempo de prova, onda C, número de provas curtas e número de E2 prolongado por inseto. Ainda, a integração da resistência de LA716 com ciantraniliprole promoveu efeitos adicionais, como a redução da proporção de moscas-brancas que realizaram prova, onda C e G, em relação aos genótipos não tratados com o inseticida, e aumento da duração da onda np, prova e C por evento. Pela análise dos resultados, pode-se concluir que LA716 é altamente resistente a B. tabaci biótipo B. Além de ser menos atrativo, o genótipo proporciona efeitos semelhantes ao inseticida ciantraniliprole quanto à alta mortalidade de moscas-brancas, à redução da incidência de ToSRV, e à ação negativa sobre o comportamento de prova do inseto. A associação da resistência genética de LA716 com ciantraniliprole é interessante para o manejo da transmissão de ToSRV, por promover efeitos adicionais.
Insect vectors of phytopathogens are responsible by significant losses in agriculture, especially by disseminating microorganisms that cause diseases in host plants. The whitefly Bemisia tabaci B biotype is an important pest in the tomato crop, capable to transmit several virus in this crop. Thus, this study aimed to: verify the resistance to the transmission of the begomovirus Tomato severe rugose virus (ToSRV) by B. tabaci B biotype in tomato genotypes treated and non treated with the insecticide cyantraniliprole; know about insectplant interactions through experiments of feeding and oviposition attractiveness by the insect and probe behaviour of viruliferous adults of B. tabaci biotype B in tomato genotypes monitored by Electrical penetration graph (EPG). It was selected five tomato genotypes: \'Santa Clara\' (susceptible to the whitefly), \'Ivety\' and \'Carina TY\' (resistant to ToSRV), LA1335 and LA716 (resistant to the whitefly), to an initial experiment to select the most susceptible genotype to the insect and to the virus, the most resistant to the virus, and the most resistant to the insect for carry out the others experiments. Thus, it was selected \'Santa Clara\' (susceptible to both organisms), \'Ivety\' (resistant to ToSRV) and LA716 (resistant to the insect). The attractiveness experiment showed that LA716 repelled the whiteflies, which was considered the least attractive, followed by \'Ivety\', and after \'Santa Clara\' which had the largest total number of whiteflies. The three cyantraniliprole treated genotypes, and the nontreated genotype LA716 (genetic resistance isolated) were able to reduce ToSRV inoculation by the whiteflies and to cause high mortality of insects, moreover, the cyantraniliprole treated genotypes, and non-treated \'Ivety\' had less ToSRV severity than \'Santa Clara\', the most susceptible. Through the EPG technique, it was clear that LA716 and the treatment of the three genotypes with cyantraniliprole promoted similar effects in B. tabaci B biotype, in which there was reduction of the number of events of waveform np, probe, waveform C and waveform G per insect, besides of reducting significantly the proportion of individuals that performed the waveforms pd, E1, E2, F, G, ingestion into phloem for long time, short probes, and increase the duration of the waveform np and reduce the duration of probe, waveform C, number of short probes and number of sustained E2 per insect. Moreover, the integration of the LA716 resistance with cyantraniliprole promoted additional effects, such as the reduction of the proportion of whiteflies that performed probe, waveform C and G, in relation to the non-treated genotypes, and an increasing in the duration of waveform np, probe and waveform C per event. Analyzing the results, it can be concluded that LA716 is highly resistant to B. tabaci biotype B. Besides of being less attractive, the genotype promotes similar effects to the insecticide cyantraniliprole considering the high mortality of whiteflies, the reduction of ToSRV incidence, and the negative effects in probing behaviour of the insect. The association of LA716 genetic resistance with cyantraniliprole is interesting to the ToSRV transmission management by promoting additional effects.

La cryo-microscopie électronique a connu une révolution majeure ces dernières années, liée à des évolutions technologiques importantes, tant au niveau des microscopes, que des caméras ou des logiciels de traitement d’images. Ainsi, avec l’arrivée de microscopes électroniques plus stables mécaniquement et électroniquement, il est possible d’enregistrer plusieurs milliers d’images de façon automatique en quelques jours, et par conséquent d’obtenir un jeu initial d’images conséquent des particules des complexes protéiques étudiés. Sauf que maintenant, il ne s’agit plus d’image au sens strict, mais de film. En effet, les nouvelles caméras, dites à détection directe d’électrons, permettent de décomposer l’image en plusieurs fractions d’images au cours de l’exposition, et ce, avec une sensibilité dix fois supérieure par rapport à celle des anciennes caméras. L’analyse de ces fractions d’images a permis de montrer que les particules protéiques, bien que piégées dans une mince pellicule de glace, bougeaient sous l’effet du faisceau d’électrons. L’alignement des fractions et leur sommation permettent ainsi de corriger ces mouvements, améliorant la qualité du signal contenu dans chaque image. Ainsi, alors que pendant des dizaines d’années, les informations structurales extraites des images des microscopes électroniques étaient limitées à la moyenne résolution, c’est à dire entre 5 et 15 Å de résolution, nous voyons apparaître depuis ces deux-trois dernières années, de très nombreuses cartes de densités électroniques de complexes protéiques issues de la microscopie électronique, à des résolutions inférieures à 4 Å, permettant de construire des modèles atomiques à l’aide d’outils jusqu’alors réservés à la cristallographie aux rayons X. C’est dans ce contexte, que j’ai étudié par cryo-microscopie électronique et traitement d’images, l’organisation structurale de trois virus de plante :- Le virus de la mosaïque de l’arabette (ArMV), un Nepovirus uniquement transmis par le nématode Xiphinema diversicaudatum, qui est responsable de la maladie du court-noué de la vigne. -Le virus de la tâche de la fève (BBSV), un Comovirus transmis par les coléoptères, responsable de la dégénération chez les légumineuses.- Le virus de la mosaïque du chou-fleur (CaMV), un Caulimovirus servant de virus modèle pour l’étude de la transmission des virus non circulants.Les virus sont des parasites endocellulaires obligatoires, dont l’efficacité dépend de leur capacité de réplication au sein de la cellule infectée et de leur transmission vers de nouveaux hôtes. En raison de l’immobilité des plantes, les phytovirus font souvent appel à des vecteurs pour la transmission plante à plante, qui sont principalement des insectes, des nématodes, des champignons ou des acariens. Les phytovirus sont généralement responsables d’une baisse importante de croissance de la plante et des fruits, voire de la mort de l’hôte infecté. Les dégâts ainsi causés engendrent des pertes de rendement dans les cultures partout dans le monde, se traduisant par d’énormes pertes économiques pour les cultivateurs. Ce travail de thèse présente les structures atomiques de l’ArMV et du BBSV obtenues par cryo-microscopie électronique, ainsi que les premiers résultats obtenus sur la structure de la capside du CaMV, et sa protéine de transmission P2
A revolution has taken over the world of cryo-electron microscopy for the last years, by dint of a major breakthrough both in technology, with the rise of new microscopes and cameras, and in image processing. With the advent of high-end microscopes, mechanically and electronically more stable, one can expect to record an initial data set of thousand images in few days, thanks to automated acquisition. Besides, the new direct electron detectors can not only record images, but also movies with a better sensitivity than the one we used to have. The movie processing revealed the existence of a beam-induced motion occurring during acquisition. The correction of the motion through frame alignment improves significantly the quality of data. Thus, cryo-electron microscopy was only limited to a middle resolution range (5 to 15 Å) until two or three years ago, when several density maps above 4 Å started to appear, allowing the building of atomic model using tools that were only restricted to X-ray crystallography.In this context, I have studied the structural organization of three plant viruses, using cryo-electron microscopy and image processing:- Arabis Mosaic Virus (ArMV), it’s a Nepovirus only transmitted by the nematode Xiphinema diversicaudatum, responsible for disease of vineyards.- Broad Bean Stain Virus (BBSV), it’s a Comovirus transmitted by beetles, responsible for the degeneration of leguminous plants.- Cauliflower Mosaic Virus (CaMV), it’s a Caulimovirus used as model to characterize the transmission of non circulative viruses.Viruses are obligate intracellular parasites, which efficiency is directly related to its replicative capacity inside the infected cell, and its transmission to new hosts. Due to the immobility of plants, plant viruses often use vectors for the transmission plant to plant, which are mainly insects, nematodes, fungi or mites. Plant viruses are generally responsible for a significant decrease in plant and fruit growth, and even the death of the plant. The plant viruses are devasting fields worldwide, causing huge loss in crop yield each year. This study highlights the atomic structures of ArMV and BBSV, as well as the first data about the CaMV capsid and its transmission protein

Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Plant Pathology
Anna E. Whitfield
Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) is an economically important plant virus dependent on insects (thrips) for transmission to plant hosts. Like many animal-infecting viruses, TSWV replicates in the cells of its insect vector. The virus is an emergent disease threatening food and fiber crops worldwide. The aim of this work was to develop novel control strategies against TSWV through a better understanding of the virus-vector interaction. Previously, the TSWV GN protein was shown to be the viral attachment protein, a molecule mediating attachment of virus particles to the midgut epithelial cells of vector thrips. The specific goals of my research were to further examine the utility of disrupting the virus-vector interaction for effective virus control by exploiting GN properties, and to track the route of TSWV in thrips using confocal microscopy. To achieve these goals, I expressed soluble and insoluble forms of GN fused to green fluorescent protein (GFP) transiently and transgenically and examined their cellular localization in planta. GN::GFP recombinant protein localized to Golgi stacks throughout the cells as indicated by a punctate pattern or co-localization to a Golgi marker. In contrast, the soluble form of GN, GN-S::GFP, localized to the ER and apparently also to the cytoplasm. Virus acquisition and transmission assays with GN-S::GFP transgenic tomato plants demonstrated that transmission of TSWV by F. occidentalis was reduced by 35 to 100%. These results indicated that transgenic expression of GN-S in tomato plants may have the potential to prevent secondary spread of the virus. Novel features of the morphology of principal (PSGs) and tubular salivary glands (TSGs) of the insect vector F. occidentalis and of their infection with TSWV were described. The virus colonized different cell types and regions within the PSGs with variable intensity and distribution; and accumulated at the lumen of individual cells. The TSGs of F. occidentalis are proposed as a route for TSWV infection into the PSGs. The transgenic plants and the new knowledge of the virus vector interaction are promising tools to control TSWV and a model approach for the control of other vector-borne viruses.

The mechanisms of transmission of potato viruses from plants to aphid vectors and from aphids to uninfected plants are described, including the example of the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae, GPA). Factors affecting the spreading of tuber necrosis and its manifestation on plants infected with potato leafroll virus (PLRV) are discussed. Recommendations for PLRV and GPA control in the field are given.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions across the globe. In Singapore, promoting safe distancing by managing crowds in public areas have been the cornerstone of containing the community spread of the virus. One of the most important solutions to maintain social distancing is to monitor the crowdedness of indoor and outdoor points of interest. Using Nanyang Technological University (NTU) as a testbed, we develop and deploy a platform that provides live and predicted crowd counts for key locations on campus to help users plan their trips in an informed manner, so as to mitigate the risk of community transmission.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.